Guinea - Socio-economic Development Support Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 7448-GUI STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT REPUBLIC OF GUINEA SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT MARCH 6, 1989 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Annual average, Guinean frf.cs per US dollar) 1986: GF 345 1987: GF 428 1988: GF 475 (As of February 15, 1989, the rate was US$1.00 = GF 560. That is the rate used in this report.) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDF African Development Fund BARAF Bureau d'aide a la reconversion des agents de la fonction publique CCEF Comite de Coordination Economique et Financibre CENDID Centre National de Documentation et d'Information pour le Developpement CNPS Commission Nationale de Politique Sociale DEIP Division des Enqugtes et Indices de Prix CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DNIP Direction Nationale des Investissements Publics DGN Direction Nationale du Plan DNSI Direction Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique DRHPS Division des Ressources Humaines et de la Politique Sociale FY Fiscal Year IDA Ir.ternational Development Association LTC Long Term Consultant MPCI Ministere du Plan et de la Cooperation Internationale MSPP Ministere de la Sante Puilique et de la Population MSF Medecins Sans Fronti6res NGO Non-Governmental Organization NPTF National Poverty Task Force PAGEN II Second Economic Management Support Project Pilot Program Pilot Program of Sub-Projects for Socio-Economic Development PIP Public Investment Program PPF Project Preparation Facility PPMU Pilot Program Management Unit SAL Structural Adjustment Credit SDA Social Dimensions of Adjustment SDR Special Drawing Rights SED Secretariat d'Etat a la Decentralisation SEDSP Socio-Economic Development Support Project SFA Special Facility for Africa SSA Sub-Saharan Africa STC Short Term Consultant TAF/AfDF Technical Assistance Fund of the African Development Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children's Emergency Fund Fiscal Year: January 1-December 31  FOR OFFICIL USE ONLY TABLE OF CONTENTS CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I. The Economy .......... .... ... .... ... .. . 1 A. Background ........ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . B. The Structural Adjustment Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 II. Social Dimensions of Structural Adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 A. Government Social Policy ........ .. .. .. .. . . 3 B. Actions Already Taken .......... ... ... ... . 5 C. Identification of Vulnerable Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Pattern of Incomes and Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Basic Needs and Poverty .................. 7 Health and Nutrition .................. 7 Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Primary and Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . 8 Technical and Professional Training . . . . . . . . 9 Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Water and Sewerage.. .............. 10 Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Summary.. . ...... ........ 11 III. Non-Governmental Organizations in Guinea . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 A. History. . . ............ 12 B. Main Activities .............. 12 C. NGO Promotion and Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 IV. Project Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 A. Objectives and Approach .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 B. Components ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 C. Social Policy Planning .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Work Program ........ . 15 Organization of Social Policy Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Social Documentation Center .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 D. Permanent Household Survey .... . . . . . . ........ . 17 Objectives ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Organization and Procedure .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Users' Committee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 E. Pilot Program of Socio-Economic Development . ... . . . . . . 18 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Target Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Sub-Project Selection Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Management of the Pilot Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Sub-Project Administration and Monitoring . . . . . . . . 20 Examples of Possible Sub-Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  V. Project Administration Costs, Financing, and Supervision . . . 23 Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Financing Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Disbursements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Procurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Accounts and Audits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Reporting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Supervision.. . .... 28 VI. Benefits and Risks of the Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 VII. Agreements and Recommendation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Annexes 1. Chapter on Social Policy in 1988 Declaration of Government o_- Guinea's Development Policy 2. Program of Social Policy Studies 3. Permanent Househol4 usrvey: Plan of Operation 4. Outline of Sub-project Appraisal Reports 5. Cost Estimates 6. Project Financing 7. Terms of Reference of Long-term Advisors 8. Documents in the Project File 9. Procurement Methods MAP No. 21360  i REPUBLIC OF GUINEA SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Guinea Implementing Agency: Ministere du Plan et de la Coop6ration Internationale (MPCI) Amount: SDR 6.9 million (US$9.0 million) Terms: Standard IDA with 40 year maturity Cofinancing: Technical Assistance Fund of the African Development Fund (TAF/AfDF) Canadian International Develop:i.ent Agency (CIDA) Objectives: The main objectives of the Project are: (i) to strengthen the ability of the Government to design and implement social policies; (ii) in support of the foregoing, to gain a better understanding of living conditions, to identify particularly vulnerable poverty groups and to monitor the evolution of living conditions during the structural adjustment process; and (iii) to implement a priority action program of specific pilot sub-projects (the Pilot Program) designed to improve the living conditions of the poor, and to provide experience necessary for further program design. Description: The Project will achieve these objectives through (ij strengthening of the staff of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI) to enable it to conduct studies to serve as a basis for the design, coordination and implementation of a comprehensive set of social policies consistent with the Structural Adjustment Program; (ii) establishment, within the MPCI, of a permanent household survey that would provide a clearer picture of living conditions than now exists, and monitor changes in living conditions over time. This will provide a better statistical basis for policy formulation, as well as identify particularly vulnerable groups that would be the target of special social action programs; and (iii) establishment of a Pilot Program that would finance, mainly through NGOs, pilot projects designed to improve the access to employment and  ii basic services of particularly vulnerable poverty groups, including those adversely affected by the structural adjustment process, and to create new employment opportunities. Project Benefits: In the short term, the Project will provide, (i) technical support to strengthen the Government's capabilities in social policy planning; (ii) a statistical base on the level and evolution of household living conditions; end (iii) experience in designing and implementing, mainly through pilot sub-projects carried out by NGOs, actions that will improve the access of poor and disadvantaged groups to increased employment opportunities and basic social services. In the medium term, the Project will lay the basis for: (i) refined targeting of vulnerable groups; and (ii) the development of a comprehensive social policy consistent with efficient growth-oriented economic policies. The timing of the Project is appropriate since it reinforces the positive effects of the Second Structural Adjustment Credit (SAL II) and is complementary to the Second Economic Management Support Project (PAGEN II). Project Risks: The first risk of the Projec> is that there may be delays in implementing the Project arising from the inexperience of the Government staff that will manage the project. A second risk is that pilot sub-projects selected may not be in conformity with the action programs of line ministries, since such programs are still at an early stage of development. A third risk is that implementation and coordination difficulties may occur as a result of the complexity of the Project. A fourth and final risk is that one or more of the NGOs, selected to implement sub-projects may not manage project funds efficiently. The first risk would be countered by providing experienced advisors to key project managers, whose main assignment would be to help develop the abilities of those managers. The seco.d risk would be minimized by involving the line ministries concerned in the approval of sub- projects. The third risk would be reduced by appointing a Socio-Economic Policy Advisor and giving a strong project coordination function to the office of the Minister of Planning. The  iii fourth risk would be reduced by applying appropriate procedures for the selection and supervision of NGOs and by the careful drafting of sub-project agraements, while recognizing that unduly close supervision may impede the work of the NGOs, whose principal advantage lies in their flexibility and ability to reach their beneficiaries through imaginative and unbureaucratic actions.  iv REPUBLIC OF GUINEA SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT Estimated Costs and Financing Plan (US$ thousands equivalent) Costs Local Foreign Total Social Policy Planning 307 727 1034 Permanent Household Survey 1267 1241 2508 Pilot Program Management 196 545 742 Sub-projects 3600 3600 7200 Project Coordination 284 215 499 Equipment for MPCI Annex 0 300 300 Total Base Project Cost 5654 6629 12283 Contingencies Physical 85 66 151 Price 678 370 1048 Total 763 436 1199 (Taxes - p.m.) (218) - - Total Financing Required 6417 7065 13482 Local Foreign Total Z (US$ thousands equivalent) Financing IDA 4622 4378 9000 67 AfDF 513 1353 1866 14 CIDA 106 734 840 6 NGOs 600 600 1200 9 Government 576 576 4 6417 7065 13482 100 Schedule of Estimated Disbursements (US$ thousands equivalent) Calender Year Annual Cumulative 1989 600 600 1990 1400 2000 1991 1200 3200 1992 1500 4700 1993 1500 6200 1994 1500 7700 1995 1300 9000  REPUBLIC OF GUINEA SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT L. THE ECONOMY A. Background 1.1 The Government of the Second Republic, which came to power in 1984, inherited a country which was in acute economic crisis. Throughout the 1958-1984 period, the Guinean economy produced at levels well below potential due to inadequate producer incentives and deteriorating physical infrastructure. Economic growth remained below the almost three percent per annum rate of population increase. A major exporter of agricultural products at independence, the Guinean economy was transformed by the mid 1970s into a major bauxite exporter and a net food importer. The private sector was largely displaced by a pervasive network of state enterprises in all sectors of the economy. 1.2 Emphasis on state-managed development did not achieve the desired modernization and industrialization goals. The currency became increas- ingly overvalued under pressure from the inefficient public sector. This resulted in a serious misallocation of resources creating disincentives to exports and an inability to mobilize domestic savings which led to an increasingly heavy debt burden. Additionally the dynamic agricultural sector retreated into subsistence production. In this context, a dual economy arose. The official sector depended on bauxite exports for its income, and functioned through an elaborate system of administered prices linked to a highly overvalued currency. The non-official sector, for its part, derived its foreign-exchange income from clandestine exports and private transfers from abroad, and supplied the domestic market largely with smuggled or pilfered imports. Its scope expanded steadily as the supply of goods imported through official channels became insufficient to meet demand for foodstuffs and other essential goods. 1.3 By the early 1980s, the Guinean economy experienced severe financial difficulties. The financial position of the Government was eroded by the poor performance of the public enterprises and the inadequacy of the tax system. Tax receipts and transfers from the enterprises declined as the private informal sector grew to dominate consumer trade. Meanwhile budgetary subsidies to the enterprises expanded. The economy's external position became unsustainable, chiefly due to public investment outside the mining enclave which failed to generate returns adequate to service the associated external debt. 1.4 The new regime which took control in April 1984 inherited an economy which is a development challenge. Guinea is one of the poorest countries in the world. Per capita income in this country of 5.6 million inhabitants (1986) is less than US$300 (1986), thus placing Guinea among the least-developed countries of the world (as defined by the United Nations). Living standards are very low, as reflected in key social indicators: life expectancy is 41 years, infant mortality is approximately 160 per thousand, more than 80 percent of the population lacks access to safe water, and 80 percent of the population is illiterate.  2 B. The Structural Adjustment Program' 1.5 In an effort to reverse the longscanding deterioration of the economy and redress financial imbalances, the new leaders launched a far- reaching stabilization and adjustment program in late 1985. Its primary objectives were to restore internal and external balance, and to lay the foundations for sustained growth, based on re-'ucing the state's role, encouraging private initiative, and relying on market forces to correct price relationships. Specific measures to meet these broad objectives were designed to: (i} correct the serious overvaluation of the currency; (ii) establish a new, reliable, banking system to replace the defunct state banks; (iii) introduce institutional reforms to promote private sector savings and investment; (iv) decontrol prices; (v) liberalize internal and external trade; (vi) reduce the scale and imprcve the efficiency of the public sector by lowering employment levels and by withdrawing from commercial and industrial activity; and (vii) reorient public investment toward supporting the directly productive sectors. 1.6 The first phase of the adjustment program (1985-88) was supported by IMF Stand-by and SAF arrangements, IDA and SFA structural adjustment credits totalling SDR 38.5 million, extensive non-project financial assistance from France, Japan, Switzerland, and the United States, and the IDA/financed Technical Assistance Project for Economic Management (SDR 9.7 million). 1.7 The first phase of the adiustment program has yielded encouraging results. The economy grew by 6 percent in real terms in 1987, resulting in an increase of over 3 percent in per-capita income. There is clear evidence of revival in the agricultural sector, with the rehabilitatic. and renewal of coffee plantations and the significant expansion in areas utmder rice cultivation. The small-scale enterprise and service sectors, principally construction, agroindustry, transport, and trade are also expanding significantly. These supply responses reflect the shift in economic decision-making away from the public sector toward the rural and private industry and service sectors. Of the 128 state enterprises in existence in 1984, 69 had been liquidated by mid 1988, 20 had been transferred to private ownerships, another 20 were in the process of privatization or liquidation, and only 19 were to be retained in the Government's portfolio. 1.8 Administrative reform centered on staff reduction and decentralization. At the outset of the program, there were around 90,000 public sector employees, .excluding the military and paramilitary forces but including those working for the mining companies. The latter--some 14,000- -were removed from civil service rolls and are now the responsibility of the mining companies. A further 16,000 have been removed from active service, through a variety of schemes--obligatory retirement, voluntary departure, early retirement and an "administrative reserve". It is estimated that by end-1988, the civil service rolls had been reduced to about 63,000, again excluding the military and paramilitary forces. At the end of 1988, wage payments were stopped for the former employees in the administrative reserve, and test results were announced that will lead to a further 10-12,000 departures. This was a major step in reaching the  3 Government's goal of a civil service of no more than 45,000. It is a substantial achievement, even though it was accomplished cver a longer period than was originally expected, given the political sensitivity of the exercise and the time needed to put in place .n adequate framework for administering the reform. 1.9 A second phase of the adjustment program was begun in 1988, supported by a second IDA Structural Adjustment Credit of SDR 47 million, approved in June 1988, with additional financing from France, the European Community, the African Development Bank, Japan and the United States. The second phase will also be supported by a Second Economic Management Credit of SDR 11.3 million approved in November 1988, with cofinancing from several other donors. Under the second phase of the adjustment program, the Government will seek to achieve sustained economic growth over the medium term. Specific measures will be aimed at: (i) strengthening the management of public finances through improved budgeting, resource mobilization and expenditure control; (ii) further reductions in the civil service to be followed by adoption of a new incentive-oriented salary scale to replace the present extremely low - and flat - scale; (iii) improving the legal and institutional framework to enhance efficient resource allocation; (iv) establishing complementary measures in support of growth; and (v) designing compensatory measures to improve the conditions of life of the poor, concentrating on the most vulnerable groups and those directly affected by the transitional costs of adjustment. The Government recognizes that growth of per capita income is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition to alleviate poverty. Therefore, it has decided to implement, in the framework of its Structural Adjustment Policy, a comprehensive social policy reform, aimed at fostering the participation of the poor in the benefits of economic growth and at mitigating the trar-itional impact of adjustment on vulnerable groups;. II. SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT A. Government Social Policy 1/ 2.1 The Government is fully committed to growth and Doverty alleviation and is aware that the simultaneous pursuit of these two objectives implies: (i) the introduction of transitory measures to protect vulnerable groups while growth gradually resumes; and 11 Social Policy in this context is here defined as promoting growth with equity, providing the poor with access to services which meet their basic needs: health, education, houising, sanitation, infrastructure and ensuring their ability to effectively participate in the growth process by increasing their access to employment opportunities and income generating assets.  4 (ii) the development of a comprehensive social policy reform concerned with increasing the participation of the poor in the growth process. 2.2 According to the Government of Guinea's 1988 Declaration of Development Policy, 2/ the reform program aims to achieve an acceleration in the real growth of GDP, that will lead, in the medium and long term, to an increase in employment, income, and per capita consumption, as well as to an improvement in the welfare of the population. The benefits of the program have already been experienced in rural areas where there is increased agricultural investment and output, in response to freer markets and better prices, and more activities by other private enterprises, particularl. those in the informal sector. The Government expects a start- up of operations by privatized public enterprises to sustain this improvement over the medium term. 2.3 Before the full benefits of growth can be realized the Government is preoccupied by the social costs imposed (i) on groups disadvantaged by the reforms; and, more generally .ii) on the most vulnerable groups during the transitional period of the adjustment process. Specifically, the Government is concerned by the unemployment associated with the lay-offs of civil servants and public enterprise employees, and with the large number of unemployed graduates now that the Government no longer offers them jobs automatically. It fears that the loss in purchasing power as a result of price increases (rent, transportation, food products, and health services) as well as pressure on the food expenditure of the low-income groups and those without direct access to agricultural output, could seriously affect incomes and welfare in the capital. The Government intends to monitor the social situation carefully. 2.4 As noted above, the Government in 1988 adopted a set of basic objectives for social policy, including the integration of social objectives into the overall process of adjustment and economic development. Since 1985, the economic and financial aspects of development have been entrusted to a ministerial level Economic and Financial Coordinating Committee (CCEF). One of its main objectives is to ensure effective implementation of the Structural Adjustment Program. The Government now intends to create, not later than December 31, 1989, a National Commission on Social Policy (CNPS), also at the ministerial level, designed to supervise the development of social policies in line with the above noted section on social policy contained in the 1988 Declaration of Development Policy. The CNPS and its official-level sub-committee would replace the National Poverty Task Force (NPTF), described in para 2.9 below. 2.5 A position of senior socio-economic advisor would be established in the office of the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, a 2/ The portion of the Declaration dealing with the social dimensions of adjustment is reproduced as Annex 1. The full text of the Declaration will be found in Annex V of the President's Report on the Second Structural Adjustment Program (Report No. P-4805-GUI, dated May 24, 1988).  5 position parallel to that of the senior economic adviser in the same office (a position filled at present by an economist seconded from the World Bank). The socio-economic advisor would in all probability be a Guinean now resident abroad who would be employed on contract. He would be the Secretary of the CNPS, and chairman of an official level subcommittee supporting the CNPS. He would also be the Coordinator of the proposed Socio-Economic Develcpment Support Project. Appointment of that advisor would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed credit, but the Government has been urged to designate him sooner if possible, since he will play a key role in the start-up and administration of the Project. His initial expenses would be financed under a US$150,000 PPF approved in February 1989. B. Actions Already Taken 2.6 While the main immediate benefits of the adjustment program have favored rural producers, the Government adopted a number of transitional measures during the first phase of the adjustment program in order to cushion its adverse effects on vulnerable groups in urban areas. These included: (i) pending aaoption of a new salary scale, additional payments to civil servants to partially compensate for increases in the cost of living resulting from the devaluation and other adjustment measures; (ii) continued payment on a temporary basis of salaries to civil servants who benefited from transitory reserve status; (iii) voluntary departure bonuses with access to loans on favorable conditions for civil servants with bank- able projects (see para. 2.7 below); (iv) advisory services to the retrenched civil servants; (v) labor intensive publ.ic works programs to create employment in Conakry funded by France and through the supplement to the IDA-financed Urban Project (Supplemental Credit No. 1466-1-GUI, of US$4.5 million, approved in June, 1987); and (vi) emphasis in the Public Investment Program on labor-intensive projects and training programs. 2.7 To ease the absorption of redundant civil servants by the private sector, the Government created an employment advisory service (the Bureau d'Aide A la Reconversion des Agents de la Fonction Publique - BARAF) in March 1987 that provides assistance in preparing bankable projects. Under this scheme, civil servants departing voluntarily can use their severance pay as down payments to secure loans up to five times that amount. By October 1988, some 9,400 employees had departed voluntarily, and 1,750 project ideas had been presented, of which some 410 were expedted to be approved by the end of 1988. However, the BARAF scheme encountered problems and its operation has been suspended pending the setting up of a more effective mechanism to help micro-enterprises (see paras.. 4.8 and 4.9 below). In addition, as part of the program of labor-intensive public works in Conakry, the Government is setting up a scheme to support the development of small building construction enterprises. That scheme will provide management counseling, training, equipment and working capital to local entrepreneurs. One component will focus on developing techniques with high labor intensity. This scheme is also being financed under IDA Credit No. 1466-GUI. 2.8 The Government intends to reach the poorest segments of the population in rural areas through decentralization and the development of  6 local initiatives. The Government has established a Fund for the Assistance of Local Initiatives, supervised by the Secretary of State for Decentralization. The projects to be funded will be submitted by local governments and will not exceed US$10,000. The projects being financed will focus on small scale activities in rural areas designed to improve living condition3. The proposed Pilot Program of sub-projects for socio- economic development will reinforce those efforts, mainly through projects to be carried out by NGOs (see paras. 4.17-4.27). 2.9 Following discussions with Bank staff managing the UNDP-financed program for studying the Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA), Guinea established a National Poverty Task Force (NPTF) in September 1987, in the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI), with special assistance from the representatives of UNICEF in Conakry. The NPTF was composed of representatives of the departments concerned with planning, finance, housing, health, social affairs, rural development, transport and decentralization, as well as representatives of international organizations such as World Bank, UNDP, and UNICEF. The NPTF completed, with the support of UNDP-financed consultants, a first overview of the social sectors. Its report, entitled "Composante Sociale du Deuxieme Pret d'Adjustement Structurel, Rapport du Groupe de travail interminist4riel" includes a poverty profile of the country, the identification of vulnerable groups in rural and urban sectors, the definition of specific criteria for the selec- tion of projects to be undertaken within the framework of a priority action program, and the identification of a first series of projects in the areas of basic education, primary health care, nutrition, employment generation, and micro-credit schemes. The NPTF was essentially a temporary body, which performed valuable preparatory work, under external leadership, It will be replaced by the CNPS, described in paragraph 2.4 above, a truly national body. C. Identification of Vulnerable Groups 2.10 In the absence of a permanent household living standards survey, the vulnerable groups were tentatively identified in the NPTF's study, first, by examining the poverty profile in Guinea in monetary terms (income and expenditures); and second, by assessing the access to basic services. 2.11 Pattern of Incomes and Expenditures. Presently available data on household incomes and expenditures in Guinea are scarce. The most reliable sources are the following: (i) the surveys on household expenditures conducted by the MPCI in 1986 and 1987 to evaluate the consumer price index for a basket of goods in Conakry; (ii) the surveys on housing in Conakry conducted in 1986 and 1987 by the Urban Planning Unit; (iii) the data on salaries, wages and other remuneration from a study of the informal sector (Etude sur le secteur informel en Guinee, Ministere de l'Industrie et du Commerce, 1987).  7 2.12 The usefulness cf the data in these surveys, for the purpose of assessing living conditions of households in Guinea, is limited by the following factors: (i) the surveys were not designed specifically to assess household living conditions; (ii) comparison among sources is impractical as a different sample base was used in each survey, and the surveys were conducted at different periods in an inflationary context; (iii) income and expenditure figures cannot be reconciled, because of the existence of barter, transfers in kind, and secondary actiPities, all of which were not always taken into account, and because of the tendency of responding households to over-estimate expenditures and under-report income. 2.13 Despite these weaknesses, the result of these surveys provide a tentative statistical picture of household income and expenditure in Guinea. In the context of this Project, the data will be reviewed and enriched once the permanent household survey is implemented. 2.14 Although the GDP per capita in Guinea increased over the last two years, from 117,400 GF in 1986 to 121,900 GF in 1987, the real income situation at the household level has deteriorated. The real average income per household in Conakry was estimated at 67,000 GF (in 1986 francs) in 1987, in comparison to 72,000 GF in 1986. The percentage of households earning less than the general average increased from 69 percent in 1986, to 75 percent in 1987. Furthermore, the inequality of household income becomes more apparent when the data is analyzed by sex. In 1986, the average income of households headed by women (45,900 GF) was significantly lower than that of households headed by men (71,400 GF). 2.15 There are also marked differences in income by socio-economic group in Guinea. Civil servants in Conakry are at the bottom of the scale of incomes, earning even less (17,500 GF per month in 1986) than salaried workers in the informal sector (23,125 GF per month in 1986). However, many civil servants supplement their government salaries with earnings from private activities. Entrepreneurs in the informal sector earn an average of 183,500 GF per month. It is difficult to quantify regional disparities in household income in Guinea. Nevertheless, the country-wide study of the informal sector conducted in 1986-87, showed that (i) the average incomes of entrepreneurs, salaried workers and apprentices were systematically higher in Conakry; and (ii) the proportion of low income earners was systematically higher outside of Conakry. The basket of basic needs (food, housing, clothing, transport, health, education, others) in Conakry has been evaluated by the MPCI to cost 68,500 GF. In 1986, more than 40 percent of the households had expenditure levels below this amount. Basic Needs and Poverty 2.16 Health and Nutrition. The health status of the population in Guinea is among Che lowest in the world: life-expectancy at birth is 41 years compared to 50 for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); infant mortality, 160 per thousand, compared unfavorably to 105 per thousand for SSA, and the overall mortality rate, 30 per thousand, exceeds the average for SSA of 18 per thousand. Health standards suffer from a lack of safe drinking water and poor environmental and personal hygiene, particularly in rural areas.  8 2.17 Although health care services in Guinea are generally poor, the rural population has much less access to available health services than their urban counterparts as reflected by the geographical distribution of facilities and the concentration of resources in urban areas: Conakry, with 12 percent of the population, has 45 percent of the doctors, 58 percent cf the pharmacists, 58 percent of the midwives, and 54 percent of the dentists. Health services are provided essentially through a public network comprising two national referral hospitals in Conakry, four provincial hospitals, 29 prefectoral hospitals, 313 health centers at the sub-prefectoral level and 205 health posts in villages. In addition, there are 15 maternal and child care centers located primarily in urban centers throughout the country. Medical facilities, dental clinics and laboratories located outside of Conakry often do not function properly because the facilities are poorly equipped and maintained and lack budgetary resources for operating costs. Furthermore, the efficiency of existing services is weakened by insufficient and inadequately trained personnel, and the absence of in-service training programs. As a result of these obstacles, only a small proportion of the rural population use public health facilities, a fact that is particularly serious for women and children. In 1988, an IDA credit (No. 1837-GUI) of US$19.7 million was made in support of a major health services project in Guinea. The project is designed to develop planning and management capabilities in the Ministry of Public Health and Population (MSPP), support policy and administrative reforms in public health services, improve basic health care in Middle Guinea, and develop cost recovery. 2.18 Although nutrition data on the Guinean population are scarce, available survey data show that malnutrition is widespread among pregnant women, lactating mothers, and young children. 7ipper and Middle Guinea are more affected than other regions by malnutrition due to drought and problems of pre-harvest food shortage. 2.19 Education. Literacy levels in Guinea are exceedingly low and must be increased if the population is to receive the beneficial effects of the Structural Adjustment Program (i.e., understand changes in the economic environmzent, adapt to these changes, gain access to the resources such as credit which will enable them to partake in the economic life of the country). In 1983, the national census estimated that 88 percent of the population (over 6 years) was illiterate: 55 percent for Conakry, 92 percent for Upper and Middle Guinea and 86Z in the Forest region. The national adult literacy program had, in 1986, a budget allocation representing only 1 percent of total public education expenditures in the country. 2.20 Primary and Secondary Education. Ths school enrollment rate experienced a decline from a peak of 33 percent to a low of 27 percent in 1986-87. Principal deficiencies in the system are: Ci) low (and declining) enrollment levels in basic education (hence poor/limited coverage);  9 (ii) poor allocation of limited resources leading to skewed resource distribution and disparities between levels and types of education and different types of expenditure (tendency to protect salaries, even of inefficient or excess personnel and cut essential operating costs notably of pedagogical materials). The budgetary allotment for education has decreased since 1985 from 14 percent to 10.7 percent in 1987, and most of budgetary expenditures are for salaries (99.6Z in primary and secondary levels). There is a pronounced difference in educational services between urban and rural areas such that school-age children in rural areas suffer from a distinct disadvantage; (iii) very poor quality and internal efficiency of education at all levels (high repetition of students; preoccupation with inputs; little knowledge or control of process and no measurement of output quality); (iv) lack of coherence between the training system and the employment/labor market; and (v) weak planning, analytical and managerial capacity of major agencies dealing with education and training. 2.21 Low school attendance in rural areas can be attributed to several factors: (i) there are deficiencies in personnel, infrastructure, and the quality of education; (ii) children in rural areas form an important part of the reserve labor force, due to the high incidence of labor-intensive technologies, particularly for poorer households; and, (iii) socio-cultural factors inhibit the education of certain groups, particularly girls, who are expected to assist their mothers both in the field and at home. 2.22 In urban areas, notably Conakry, high levels of unemployment among recent secondary school and university graduates has lessened interest in education. The opportunity cost of education is high for children who are engaged in informal sector activities and the small-scale business sector in order to supplement family incomes. 2.23 IDA has made two education credits in Guinea (No. 849 in 1978 for US$8.0 million, and No. 1341-GUI in 1983 for US$11.0 million). These projects encountered severe difficulties and the second one has now been reorganized. An education sector rehabilitation project is now being prepared for IDA financing. 2.24 Technical and Professional Training. Attendance in technical and vocational schools decreased by 8 percent in 1986 and 16 percent in 1987. The elimination of automatic hiring in the public sector, the absence of information on job opportunities in the modern private sector, the under- qualification of trainers and the lack of equipment and training material in technical and vocational training schools have contributed to the drops in registration levels. The poor linkage between training programs and the job market is also a major reason for this decline. At least until recently, graduates perceive few openings in the private sector for their skills. Access to employment in the informal sector is difficult given the  10 limited number of openings and constraints such as transmission of jobs along traditional lines (e.g., family/ethnic connections). 2.2f Housing. Housing is particularly an urban problem in Guinea, especially in Conakry. In the rural areas, traditional housing exists with few amenities, yet rural inhabitants suffer less than those living in urban areas from problems of over-crowding, larceny, and dilapidated structures. Urban residents encounter these and other problems such as relatively under-equipped buildings, and deficient provision of water and sewage disposal facilities. In Guinea, 48 perc?nt of households occupy single family housing. This proportion varies significantly between regions (24Z in Upper Guinea, 42? in Middle Guinea, 49Z in the Forest and 77Z in Lower Guinea). Heads of households generally own their houses (85%), except in Lower Guinea where only 23 percent are owners. Traditional housing characterizes rural areas (Middle Guinea 85?, Upper Guinea 83Z, and the Forest Region 56Z), whereas Lower Guinea has a higher share (62Z) of modern housing. Low-income households occupy 60 percent of traditional housing in urban areas. To support the provision of better housing in Conakry, the Government is establishing a program to develop serviced building plots with the aid of the UN Habitat program aimed at helping departing civil servants and others to construct better housing. Unfortunately, the cost of these plous is estimated to be quite high, putting them beyond the reach of the lowest income groups. The Government is now discussing with IDA a second urban development project that would include a major, low-cost sites and services program in Conakry. 2.26 Water and Sewerage. Guinea has one of the least developed urban water supply networks in West Africa, with only nine urban centers out of 35 equipped with piped systems. Less than half of the urban population of about 1,5 million, of which 0.7 million live in the capital city of Conakry, have access to piped water, while the remainder rely on unsafe sources for their water needs. 2.27 In the urban areas, the constraints to access to water and sewerage are related to general problems of technical efficiency, financing availability and quality. As well, the productive capacity of traditional services is much less than demand due to the increase in urban population, particularly in Conakry where the population has more than dou.bled since the water supply system was established and the system has deteriorated over time. Many neighborhoods are serviced by water trucks and/or th- use of public fountains or pumps from which water is removed by buckets and bowls which are often contaminated. Additionally, not all public facilities were constructed hygienically. In the rural areas, water supply is a quantitative problem in the north of Middle and Upper Guinea, and a qualitative problem throughout the country where many villages do not have potable drinking water. 2.28 A second water supply project (Cr. 1985-GUI), was approved by the Executive Directors in February, 1989. It will support on a thorough reorganization of the water supply sector and of its finances. It -will include a major expansion of the water supply network in Conakry.  11 2.29 Transport.. As with housing, water and sewerage, the problem of transport differs between Conakry and the rest of the country. The population of Conakry is relatively well-served and transport limitations are presently being addressed through the first IDA urban project and French and African Development Bank financing. 2.30 Transportation services are more deficient for the population living outside Conakry. Many isolated regions are more than 10 km. distant from the closest road. This is the case for the prefectoral zones of Gaoual, Dabola, Dinguiraye, Kouroussa, Mandiana, Kissidougou and Gueckedou- West. There are also serious deficier.cies in transportation for inter- urban traffic in the interior while demand is increasing. In 1986, over 10 million persons and 800,000 tons of goods were transported in the country; in 1987, these numbers increased by 6% and 162 respectively. Currently, Government priority is to re-establish the national network before work begins on secondary routes. Several donors are contributing to this program, including IDA (Credits No. 1457-GUI, April 1984; No. 1515-GUI, June 1987; and No. 1915-GUI, June 1988). 2.31 Summary. In sum, the Government is taking or planning actions on several fronts that sooner or later will have favorable repercussions on the standards of living of the poor. So far, it has concentrated on assistance to public employees who have left or will leave their Government or state enterprise jobs as part of the adjustment process (paragraphs 2.6 and 2.7 above). Moreover, once the civil service reform is complete, the Government intends to revise the whole salary scale upward, thus helping the category of salaried workers that are the worst paid. It is also moving, as noted above, with programs in the areas of health and nutrition, education, training, housing, water supply and public transport, all of which, when finally implemented, will substantially improve the conditions of life of the poor. Most of these programs, however, will achieve material results only over a considerable period of time--the pace of accomplishment being severely constrained by the limitations of organizational capacity, shortage of trained Guinean managers, scarce finance, and infrastructure deficiencies. 2.32 In the meantime, the Government has decided at the same time that it establishes an institutional system for socio-economic policy formulation and coordination, to institute actions that will, on the one hand, improve its ability to understand and deal with problems of poverty in the medium and long term, and, on the other hand, facilitate a program of grass-roots action, largely through NGOs, that will bring about fairly quick improvements in the living standards of particularly vulnerable segments of the population. This program, costing about US$11.9 million would be supported by the proposed IDA credit of SDR 5.8 million (US$7.6 million equivalent).  12 III. Non-Governmental Organizations in Guinea A. History 3.1 In 1985, the Government of Guinea announced that it had opted to pursue a development policy of decentralization, encouraging local branches of government and community organizations to take increasing responsibility for the development initiatives in their immediate communities. At the same time, the Government began to encourage the entry of international, non-profit, community oriented, non-governmental organizations, and the development of national organizations of the same type. As in other countries, NGOs are contributing a dynamic i t,.e development process which is unique and invaluable. Having access tu .xternal sources of financing and extensive experience at the grass roots level, typically with small scale, community development projects i.e. dams, health centers, cooperatives, they have been able effectively to complement the overall development efforts of the Government and the international donor community. 3.2 Responsibility for fostering the decentralization process, including the encouragement of NGOs, is entrusted to a Secretariat of State for Decentralization (SED) which is responsible for formally recognizing and registering NGOs, domestic and foreign. NGOs in Guinea support many worthwhile projects and by emphasizing community participation in the identification, design and implementation of such projects have achieved a high success rate. B. Main Activities 3.3 Presently there are 74 national NGOs and 52 international NGOs operating in Guinea active in both urban and rural areas. These NGOs are all at different levels of development and cover a wide variety of activities. Although many NGOs focus on cultural projects, more and more are becoming involved in the p;oductive and welfare sectors, including primary health care, rural development and water sanitation, education and training, employment and income generation, social welfare, and technical assistance, 3.4 At present the NGOs have a particularly important role to play vis-&-vis the structural adjustment process in Guinea. NGOs will be able to assist in meeting the immediate needs of vulnerable groups during the period of transition and facilitate their participation in the growth process. For these reasons, the international donor community has given special support to the work of NGOs, thereby helping to ensure that the development projects that they finance are indeed reaching the most vulnerable groups of the population. In June 1988, the resident missions of UNICEF and the World Bank completed a comprehensive directory of NGOs which is an up to date account of the NGOs now operating in Guinea. 3.5 Another type of NGO may become more important in the near future, namely village associations (groupements villageois), which are pre- cooperatives. Their formation is being promoted with technical assistance financed under the FY89 IDA credit for agricultural research and extension  13 (Credit No. 1955-GUI). Such associations would carry out small rural investments such as storage sheds, workshops, drainage schemes, water points, etc. C. NGO Promotion and Coordination 3.6 Many of the national NGOs face the continual challenge of financing their development programs. With a relatively new or non- existent track record, national NGOs find it difficult to obtain credit. Since there has been a large and fairly quick proliferation of NGOs, financing institutions need to obtain enough information on each NGO to avoid financing inappropriate ventures. 3.7 In principle, the newly founded NGOs deserve strong support, but given their inexperience, many of them will need technical assistance in the design, implementation and supervision of projects. For that reason, association with experienced international NGOs, or other voluntary organizations (Volontaires du Progres, Peace Corps, etc.) will be encouraged. This will help both to carry out projects successfully, and to transfer experience to the newly formed national NGOs. 3.8 The NGOs in Guinea have not yet organized a central coordinating body such as FONGTO in Togo or CONGA in Senegal. There is consequently very little coordination between the various NGOs and indeed perhaps duplication of effort. There is also no central body capable of speaking for NGOs as a group. 3.9 Given their special character, NGOs provide a particularly appropriate channel through which pilot projects can be financed. Through the NGOs, the country will gain a great deal of experience in the operation of various interventions directed at improving welfare at the same time that various target groups are assisted. IV. Project Description A. Objectives and Approach 4.1 The Socio-Economic Development Support Project is designed to initiate a process that will enable the Government to develop a long-term program for alleviating poverty in Guinea as a complement to the growth- promoting objectives of the Structural Adjustment Program. In the short- term, the Project would support actions to improve access to employment and basic services for particularly vulnerable groups including those adversely affected by the structural adjustment program. Under the Project, the Government would create the institutional basis for social policy formulation, set up mechanisms for developing the statistical framework for social policy, and initiate a set of pilot interventions, to a large extent on a test basis, that will serve as design models for systematic and replicable assistance to vulnerable groups. In so doing, the Project should help to overcome the present lack of funds, institutions and delivery mechanisms to implement social programs, as well as the lack of important statistical information concerning the level and the evolution of  14 living conditions of households, in both urban and rural areas. Finally, the Project should serve as a focal point for supporting the CNPS (see para. 2.4) in developing systematic social policies and coordinating the programs of line mirn4.stries--health, education, urban development, labor, agriculture, etc., insofar as those programs include the provision of services to low income portions of the population. B. Components 4.2 Three components constitute the core of the Socio-Economic Deve- lopment Support Project: (i) Social Policy Planning: The Project would support the strengthening of the Human Resources and Social Policy Division (DRHPS) in the Direction Nationale du Plan (DGP) of the MPCI. The DRHPS would be responsible for (i) carrying out, with its own staff and with consultants, studies of important issues of social policy; (ii) integrating the results of those studies, and the results of the permanent household survey into the design of social policy and of the structural adjustment program, and (iii) following the implementation of social policies; (ii) Monitoring Living Standards: The Project would support the strengthening of the Direction Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique (DNSI) of the MPCI by creating a new Survey and Price Indices Division (DEIP) that would organize and implement a permanent household survey to track the evolution of living conditions of households throughout the adjustment process; (iii) Pilot Program: The Project would support the establishment of a Pilot Program of sub-projects for socio-economic development. The program would be managed by a new Pilot Project Management Unit (PPMU) within the Direction Nationale des Investissements Publics (DNIP) of the MPCI. The Unit would be responsible for identifying, appraising, and monitoring pilot poverty-alleviation sub-projects to be financed under the Pilot Program, for judging their consistency with Government sectoral policies, and for evaluating the capabilities of the agencies carrying out the projects. C. Social Policy Planning 4.3 Objectives. The Government intends to strengthen its capacity to design and implement comprehensive social policies and programs. The ultimate objective is to ensure the participation of the poor in the growth process and to protect vulnerable groups in the population, including during the transition period of adjustment.  15 4.4 Work Program. The principal tasks of the DRHPS would include: (i) synthesizing for the Government the results of the previous work of the NPTF and various other existing studies concerning the social sectors; and analyzing the results of social interventions performed by the Government, NGOs and others, including projects to be financed by the SEDP; (ii) examining and analyzing the results of the permanent household survey; (iii) carrying out studies that will help the Government to define its social policy. Subjects to be investigated would include the profile of poverty and the identification of particularly vulnerable groups to which interventions should be targeted; nutrition and food security; the relationship among education, income, and the demand for education; similar relationships among health, income and the demand for health services; housing demand; the relationship between employment and poverty, and the role of women in development; (iv) in close consultation with sector ministries, introducing a poverty alleviation component into sectoral policies in the framework of SAL II; (v) defining a comprehensive national policy for alleviating poverty including its sectoral components. 4.5 Organization of Social Policy Studies. A key to success of the studies program will be the strengthening of the staff of the DRHPS with one or two competent and dynamic Guinean economists/sociologists. It may take some time to identify the individuals who can fill these positions successfully, and it may, therefore, not be possible to initiate this component as quickly as the other two - but this may not be a serious disadvantage since the policy studies will lean heavily on the results of the household survey and on the experience of the pilot projects to be financed under the SEDP. 4.6 Once qualified staff has been appointed to the DRHPS, an internationally recruited economist/sociologist would be assigned to the division to advise on the establishment of a program of studies, the elaboration of terms of reference for the studies, and the designation of short-term consultants who would, with the participation of Guinean counterparts, actually conduct the studies. 4.7 A possible program of social policy studies for the DRHPS, to be refined once its staff has been strengthened, is set out in Annex 2. The program would be carried out over four years and would contain both macroeconomic and social components. The macroeconomic component would include studies to define social objectives and seek means of harmonizing them with macroeconomic policies. The sectoral component would be composed of studies which would help in defining, in close consultation with sector  16 ministries, the social content of sectoral policies and would rely heavily on the data from the permanent household surveys. 4.8 The program of studies would include the preparation of an action plan to support the development of micro-enterprises, with the objective of improving access to employment of particularly vulnerable groups, including those adversely affected by the economic reform. The action plan would consist of two principal parts: (i) creation of a system to provide technical assistance and finance for very small businesses; and (ii) creation of a system to facilitate access to serviced plots for small entrepreneurs. Two special Task Forces would be created to advise on the studies needed to provide the basis for each of these systems. The Task Forces would consist of representatives of agencies already active in each of the two areas, and would draw on their experience. They might also include representatives of one or more NGOs that have experience in this field. The MPCI would supervise the studies, which would be assisted by short-term consultants as needed. 4.9 The studies and recommendations on assistance to micro- enterprises would draw on the experience of the BARAF (para. 2.7) and the micro-enterprises scheme helped by Morocco (para. 4.26(b)). Thev would also draw on experience with similar schemes in other countries. They would include; (i) the evaluation of the growth potential for various types of micro-enterprises in various sub-sectors, and of the related demand for serviced sites; (ii) the mecnanisms for tha preparation, appraisal, and selection of micro-enterprise projects and for the allocatio- of serviced sites; (iii) the training and financing mechanisms for the development of small-scale enterprises, including serviced sites, and the methods of cost recovery. The plan for serviced sites would include in addition, proposals for the physical design of a pilot program of serviced sites integrating the various needs identified; and (iv) the roles and responsibilities of the agencies that would execute the program. 4.10 Social Documentation Center. The available documentation on social issues in Guinea is extremely diffuse. It is desirable that this documentation be reorganized in a documentation center which has the necessary facilities to make this documentation accessible to all potential users. In this context, the present Project includes the creation of a Social Documentation Center within the Centre National de Documentation et d'Information pour le Developpement (CENDID). CENDID is a newly created documentation center under the authority of the Secretariat d'Etat a la Recherche Scientifique. It has sufficient physical space to house the equipment necessary for archives and reproduction of documents. Its activities include amongst other things, collecting, processing analysing, classifying, and distributing the documents relating to economic and social development in Guinea. The Project will help CENDID to collect and manage the social documentation by financing an additional library technician and small-scale equipment and furniture.  17 D. Permanent Household Survey 4.11 Objectives. In order to establish a base of data on the living conditions of the various groups in the population, and then to monitor changes during the structural adjustment process, the Government will establish a permanent household survey. The survey will cover a representative sample of households, in rural as well as urban areas, in each of the natural regions of the country. The survey will be based on an integrated questionnaire covering key indicators of employment, income, consumption, savings, access to social services such as education and health, access to housing, and nutritional status (particularly for children). Both inter- and intra-household transfers will be investigated. 4.12 Organization and Procedure. A new Surveys and Price Indices Division (DEIP) has been created within the Direction Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique (DNSI). The DEIP will have responsibility for continuing existing surveys of consumer expenditures with the support of the second IDA-financed economic management support project, and for launching a permanent household survey in the context of this Project. These surveys will be amplified over time to include other variables (e.g. social indicators). The plan of operation of the survey is set out in Annex 3. 4.13 The permanent household survey will commence with a preparatory phase including: (i) establishing the sample frame; (ii) selecting the sample; (iii) designing the questionnaire; (iv) installing the infrastructure and equipment; (v) training the personnel for the survey; (vi) pre-survey testing of the questionnaire; and (vii) preparing the final version of the questionnaire. This first phase will be completed by the collection and processing of the initial data. Subsequent phases will continue the process, with refined questionnaires and modified samples in the light of experience. 4.14 The DEIP is headed by a competent trained statistician. He will be assisted by an internationally recruited advisor with experience in design and management of surveys. Appointment of the advisor would be a condition of effectiveness of the credit. The organization of the unit will be based on a central bureau in Conakry and six regional offices. The central bureau in Conakry will consist of the unit responsible for the overall management of the survey, and of two survey teams in charge of gathering the information from households in Conakry. The six regional offices will be responsible for collecting the information from the households in their respective regions: Boke, Faranah, Kankan, Kindia, Labe, and N'Zerekore. 4.15 A Users' Committee will be established by September 1, 1989 within the MPCI under the responsibility of the DEIP. The committee will ensure the active participation of all the agencies involved in the execution of the permanent survey and the utilization of its results. It will also oversee the results of the survey as well as the analyses and socioeconomic studies and their dissemination. The Committee will be composed of representatives from the DEIP, the DRHPS, and the PEMU; other ministries concerned (Rural Development, Health, Education, etc).  18 E. Pilot Program of Socio-Economic Development 4.16 Objectives. The third main component of the Project would be a Pilot Program through which funds would be channeled to small, grass roots pilot sub-projects assisting vulnerable groups in the low-income segment of the population. Sub-projects would cover such activities as vocational training, support of very small enterprises, and access to basic services such as education, health, serviced sites and shelter. Valuable in themselves, such projects would also give Guinea a body of experience in combating poverty and creating access to employment that will form a valuable basis for the design of larger scale interventions later on, as well as for the formulation of broader social policies. Most of the pilot projects would be carried out by NGOs, national or foreign, although a request from a public agency (e.g. a local government or ministerial agency) would not be turned down if its proposal met the agreed criteria (see paras. 4.17 and 4.18). The Program would cover up to US$7.2 million of sub-projects, of which US$6.0 million would be drawn from the IDA Credit and an estimated US$1.2 million from the funds of NGOs and other implementing agencies. Implementing agencies would be required to meet the cost of their own staff from their own funds. Funds would be passed on as grants, unless all or part of a sub-project were revenue-earning, in which case the government would lend the funds on terms acceptable to IDA. 4.17 Target Groups. Agreement has been reached with the Government on a number of initial target groups to which finance from the Pilot Program would be channelled. The agreed target groups are specific enough to guide the selection process, but they would be applied flexibly so as to be operationally feasible in a country where precise statistical data are rare and often unreliable. The main groups to which assistance would be directed include: a) those below the poverty level, defined as those whose incomes are insufficient to provide for basic needs. At present the data to measure this level are inadequate but should gradually improve as data from the household survey become available and are analyzed. b) households lacking access to basic services and other forms of support; c) people in isolated rural areas who lack essential infrastructure and basic services; d) women and children (especially pregnant and lactating mothers and infants) whose nutritional needs are not being met; e) persons who have lost their jobs and those (such as school graduates) who are unable to find employment as a result of the administrative reforms introduced under the structural adjustment program, i.e., those who are in danger of becoming the new poor.  19 The definition of target groups would be refined as results of the household survey and of the policy studies to be conducted by DRHPS become available. 4.18 Sub-Project Selection Criteria. Six important project selection criteria would be applied to projects financed under the Pilot Program: (i) To the extent possible, projects should incorporate employment and income generating activities, that would extend beyond the life of the sub-project. (ii) The practical and operational feasibility of the sub-project should be demonstrated. To that end the sub-project executing agency should possess the management, staff, and financial capability to carry out the project. Normally, projects would be carried out by NGOs with a proven track record. However, efforts will be made to reinforce the capacity of as-yet-inexperienced NGOs by associating an experienced one with it. The bottom line is that the NGOs should have the capacity to ensure honest, rapid and effective implementation of the sub-project. (iii) Foreign NGOs accepting funds from the Pilot Program would be required to train Guinean nationals so that ultimately they can take over management of the project. Every effort should be made to design sub-projects in such a way that they would continue if the NGOs were no longer involved. (iv) The NGOs concerned should be capable of meeting the salaries of their own staff from their own resources. To that end, as noted above, a notional US$1 million (i.e., about 20Z of the estimated aggregate costs of sub-projects) has been included in the financing of the sub-projects to be assisted through the Pilot Program. (v) sub-projects should be consistent with the sector strategies and programs of the technical ministries concerned; and (vi) sub-projects should not entail future operational expenditures beyond the capacity of national or local budgets, or user charges, to finance. 4.19 Management of the Pilot Program. Day-to-day management of the Pilot Program would be assigned to a new division, the Pilot Program Management Unit (PPMU), within the Direction Nationale des Investissements Publics (DNIP) of the MPCI. The Director of the PPMU, a Guinean to be chosen for his management experience, would be assisted by an internationally recruited advisor with experience in project financing, and by one or two operations officers. 4.20 When the credit becomes effective, the PPMU would issue and disseminate widely an announcement about the Pilot Program, describing its objectives and selection criteria, and inviting NGOs to submit project proposals to the PPMU. Project proposals would be dealt with by PPMU on a  20 first-come-first-served basis. Staff of PPMU would appraise the project, in discussions with its sponsor, and drawing upon outside technical advice where necessary. Funds would be available under the project to finance such short-term advisory services. If the sub-project sponsor had not prepared the project completely, the PPMU would extend preparation assistance as appropriate. In each case, PPMU would obtain the advice of the SED, the agency responsible for following the activities of NGOs in Guinea, and that of the technical ministry (education, health, social affairs, etc.) in whose purview the project fell. PPMU would then issue a brief project evaluation report (5 to 10 pages) describing the project and demonstrating how it met the criteria established for project selection. A list of subjects to be covered in such reports is attached as Annex 4. At the appraisal stage it would be necessary to exercise careful judgement, on the one hand to ensure that the project is consistent with the purposes of the Pilot Program and is operationally feasible, and, on the other hand, to leave the sponsoring NGO the flexibility and freedom to operate at the grass roots, that are the hallmarks of such organizations. The appraisal should be light enough to preserve this autonomy and to enable decisions on sub-project eligibility to be reached quickly. At the end of the appraisal of eligible sub-projects, PPMU would negotiate a draft sub-project financing agreement between the Government and the implementing agency. 4.21 All sub-project evaluation reports would be submitted to a Pilot Program screening committee, chaired by the senior socio-economic advisor and consisting of representatives of the Ministry of Plan and International Cooperation, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Ministry of Social Affairs, the Secretariat of State for Decentralization and representatives of the technical ministries concerned. If and when the NGOs in Guinea create a coordination body, as would be desirable, it should be invited to designate one or two NGO representatives to sit on the screening committee. Decisions would normally be by consensus. The committee would be empowered to endorse, reject or propose modifications in sub-projects. Sub-projects endorsed by the committee would be submitted to the Minister of Planning for final approval. 4.22 All sub-projects would be subject to approval by IDA after submission by the Government. To facilitate the process, Sub-projects costing GF 15 million (US$27,000 equivalent) or less would be considered approved by IDA if IDA had not responded within 15 days of the Sub- project's submission. It is planned to delegate to the Bank's Resident Mission in Conakry a major role in the review of sub-projects submitted to IDA. 4.23 Establishment of the PPMU, appointment of its manager , and recruitment of the external advisor would be conditions of effectiveness of the IDA credit. 4.24 Sub-Project Administration and Monitoring. PPMU would be responsible for sub-project administration and monitoring. Disbursement of grants would be in installments as project execution progressed, as spelled out in each sub-project agreement. After disbursement of the first installment, the implementing agency would be required to submit a report on the progress in implementing the sub-project prior to the release of  21 each subsequent installment, or every three months, whichever came first. PPMU would visit every sub-project in the field at least once a year, to verify that Pilot Program funds were being used for the purposes for which they were intended. Visits would be more frequent if special problems arose or were suspected. Sub-project agreements would provide for suspension of disbursements if the purposes of the sub-project were not being achieved. 4.25 PPMU would submit to the Minister of Planning an annual report on the operations of the Pilot Program, containing financial statements, an account of sub-project successes and difficulties, and an analysis of lessons learned from the operations of the Pilot Program that are relevant for future operations and for the Government's socio-economic policies in general. That report would be prepared in close consultation with the DRHPS and the SED. 4.26 Examples of Possible Sub-Projects. The following are examples of possible sub-projects that might be financed from the Pilot Program. They are listed here in order to give an indication of the type of intervention that is envisaged, though these particular sub-projects may or may not be financed. Complete appraisals of each of the sub-projects would be prepared by the PPMU as it assesses which projects merit financing. (a) Kouroussa Health Services. Since June 1986, Medecins Sans Fronti6res (MSF), a French voluntary organization, has been rehabilitating health services in the area of Kouroussa, in upper Guinea, in support of the Government's commitment to a national health care system which eventually will serve the entire population of Guinea. MSF is lacking finance for the continuing rehabilitation of the health center of Kouroussa city, the prefectural hospital and the construction of and equipment for health centers in each of five smaller towns. It also seeks finance to establish a revolving fund for the purchase of pharmaceuticals, to be replenished by user charges. (b) Small Enterprise Development. A project has been initiated under the auspices of the Ministry of Industry to extend technical assistance to very small entrepreneurs and to grant small loans averaging US$12,000 to such enterprises. This project is assisted by the Office of Industrial Development of Morocco, within the context of the Commission -or Guinean-Moroccan cooperation, and the first phase is being financed with a UNDP grant of US$240,000. A similar sum is sought to start up a second phase. (c) Women's Information and Enterprise Creation Center (CFIACE). Created in April 1986, CFIACE is managed by seven women. Its objectives are: (i) the promotion of businesses owned and managed by women; (ii) the creation of an information center for men and women who are in need of technical and/or financial assistance for their business; (iii) the provision of basic business management training; (iv) the establishment of a small,  22 flexible, credit program. A two-year budget for its operations is about US$80,000. (d) Assistance to Young People. This project, called "La Samaritaine", was set up in 1987 by a group of Guineans with the objective of helping the poorest members of Guinean society. Particular emphasis will be placed on: (i) reintegrating young people with drug addictions and/or systematic records of criminal behavior into society, through consultation and training in income-generating activities; (ii) assistance to children and young adults who have no adult supervision or support due to death, or abandonment by their parents and close family relations; (iii) assistance to widows whose lack of material support becomes detrimental to herself and the children she should be supporting. An initial fund of US$60,000 is being sought. (e) Rehabilitation of the Handicapped. In 1987, a group of Guinean professionals organized the Guinean Association for the Training and Social Reintegration of the Handicapped (AGFRIS). It is designed to address the problems of the between 7 and 10% of the population of Guinea who suffer from some form of handicap. Its objectives are to: (i) organize training and assistance programs for the handicapped with the goal of their reintegration into the socio-economic environment; and (ii) create business activities which can use their skills and permit the handicapped to earn their own living. AGFRIS is seeking a one-year grant of US$90,000. (f) Vocational Training. OIC Guinea is an affiliate of OIC International, an American NGO dedicated to providing vocational training to the urban poor. OIC Guinea has started training programs in Conakry in carpentry, masonry and secretarial work. It is seeking funds to institutionalize the training center in Conakry, to replicate that activity in other cities, and to diversify training into other sectors. (g) Serviced Sites for Micro-Enterprises. Based on the recommendations of the special task force on land delivery (para. 4.8), a pilot-operation of approximately 100 serviced sites could be initiated to accommodate a first group of micro-enterprises. The sites would be serviced by a developer (possibly SOLOPRIMO) for an estimated average cost of approximately US$4,000. Some of the structures required to house the micro-enterprises could be built by small entrepreneurs in the construction sector whose establishment is being assisted by a Canadian NGO, with finance under the Urban Development Project (IDA Credit No. 1466-1 GUI). 4.27 The Pilot Program will also finance a special series of actions in local communities. Funding in individual grants of US$10,000 to US$50,000 would be provided with the aim of strengthening culturally relevant traditional community organizations as vehicles for promoting developmental actions including, but not limited to, self-help, mutual  23 credit producers' associations, and marketing associations. These special actions would be based on existing structures and could benefit from the support of formal NGOs. The actions would be selected by MPCI, which would seek to ensure variety in both geographic coverage and type of grassroots organizations supported. The Ministry would review the progress of each activity and IDA and the MPCI would undertake a comprehensive review of the program on a yearly basis. V. Project Administration Costs, Financing, and Supervision 5.1 Organization. Figure 1 is an organization chart showing how the Project would fit into Guinea's planning system, especially within the MPCI. To the greatest extent possible the project has been designed within the existing institutional structure. One advantage of this is thdt the results of the social policy studies and the quantitative data-gathering can more easily be integrated into overall development policy and planning. Day to day coordination of the project, including personnel and financial administration would be carried out by the socio-economic advisor whose staff would include an administrative officer/accountant. 5.2 Office Space. The present office space of the MPCI is inadequate to house the Ministry's staff and equipment. Consequently the Ministry will build an annex adjacent to its main building, to house the DNSI and other services. It will be the headquarters of the permanent household survey. Construction costs (estimated at about US$1.2 million) will be financed by AfDB and the Government. US$300,000 is provided in the proposed credit for equipment for the annex.  24 Figure . ORGANIZATIONAL CHART OF THE SEDSP |National Commission for Social Policy| Sub-Commission (official level) Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Cabinet Senior Economic Advisor Division of Administrative *Senior Socio-economic Advisor and Financial Affairs (Project Coordinator) Press Bureau *Administrator/Accountant Purchasing Office Central Secretariat F Secretary General Statistics Planning Public Investment International and Data Process- Directorate Directorate Cooperation ing Directorate Directorate Statistics Macroecon. Studies Primary Tech.assistance *Surveys and Price and Forecasting Secondary and grants Indices (DEIP) Strategy Planning Tertiary U.N. Agencies National Accounts *Human Resources Quaternary Reg. Agencies Human Resources and Social Policy Public Sector Fin- EEC Community Information Tech. (DRHPS) arcing *Pilot Program of Socio-Economic Dev. (PPMU) * Special responsibility under proposed Project.  25 5.2 Costs. The total. cost of the project, including contingencies but excluding taxes, is estimated of about US$13.5 million equivalent, distributed as follows: USS Thousand Equivalent (ineluding ontingencies) Local Foreign Total Social Policy Planning 329 749 1078 Permanent Household Survey 1824 1530 3364 Pilot Program Sub-projects 3800 3600 7200 Management 239 647 886 Project Coordination 425 239 664 Equipment for MPCI Annex 0 300 300 Total-Net of Taxes 6417 7065 13482 Estimated Taxes (p.m.) (218) By category of expenditure, these costs would be distributed as follows: Local Foreign Total Lone-term Consultants 707 1063 1770 Short-term Consultants 235 601 836 Computing and other Equipment (including servicing) - 675 675 Vehicles (including fuel and maintenance) 32 552 684 Office furniture - 73 73 Incremental Operating Costs 1843 601 2444 Pilot Program 3600 3800 7200 Total 6417 7086 13482 The Project would finance 150 person-months of long-term consultants and 50 person-months of short-term consultants. Draft terms of reference for long-term consultants are contained in Annex 7. 5.4 Base cost estimates are in November 1988 prices. Contingencies amounting to US$1.2 million have been added to base cost estimates (except for the Pilot Program). Physical contingencies of 3Z on long-term consultants, and 52 on equipment, vehicles and incremental operating costs have been included. Price contingencies for foreign exchange costs have been calculated at 5.32 in 1989 and 1990, and 4.1? thereafter. Price  26 contingencies for local costs, deflated for possible changes in the exchange rate of the Guinean franc, have been calculated at 15Z for 1989 and 1990 and 102 per year thereafter. Taxes, actual and imputed, are estimated at US$218,000 equivalent. Detailed cost estimates are presented in Annex 5. 5.5 Financing Plan. The Project will be financed by the IDA Credit, a grant from the Technical Assistance Fund of the African Development Fund, a grant from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), and contributions by the Government and participating NGOs. Confirmation of AfDF and CIDA effectiveness would be conditions of effectiveness of the IDA Credit. Annex 6 gives the project financing plan by donor and nature of costs. A summary is provided below: Financing Plan (Taxes excluded) US$ million % IDA 9.00 67 AfDF 1.86 14 CIDA 0.84 6 Government 0.58 4 NGOs 1.20 9 Total 13.48 100 5.6 The proposed IDA credit of US$9.0 million equivalent would finance the services of consultants, equipment, incremental operating costs and US$6.0 million toward the cost of sub-projects financed under the Pilot Program. Fees paid to locally recruited contract employees, consisting mostly of the field teams working on the household survey, are included in local operations costs. Salaries of civil servants would be covered by the Government. AfDF and CIDA would finance the balance of consultant costs, vehicles, computing equipment and office furniture, and participating NGOs would provide an estimated US$1.2 million toward the cost of sub-projects that they carry out. The NGO contributions would consist mainly of the salaries of their own staff. The Government would finance the remainder of incremental local operating costs and would cover taxes. To ensure that the Government's contribution was available when needed, it would establish a special account in Guinean francs from which its share of Project costs would be covered. After an initial deposit of US$50,000 equivalent, which woulcl be a condition of effectiveness of the IDA credit, the Government would replenish the account as and when required. 5.7 Disbursements. It is estimated that the proposed IDA credit would be disbursed over a period of six years, compared to a Regional Disbursement Profile of seven and a half years for technical assistance projects. The estimate of a shorter disbursement period is justified by the record of previous technical assistance credits to Guinea. Year-by- year disbursements of the IDA credit are estimated as follows:  27 US$ Thousands Calendar Year Annual Cumulative 1989 600 600 1990 1400 2000 1991 1200 3200 1992 1500 4700 1993 1500 6200 1994 1500 7?00 1995 1300 9000 5.8 The credit agreement would provide for the following disbursement categories: Amount of the Credit Allocated Percentage (Expressed in of Expenditures Category USS Equivalent) to be Financed Pilot Program 6,000,000 100Z Consultant services 440,000 looz Equipment 400,000 100% Vehicles 40,000 100% Fuel and Lubricants 50,000 402 Incremental Operating costs 1,500,000 802 Repayment of PPF 150,000 100% Unallocated 420,000 TOTAL $9,000,000 5.9 A revolving fund would be established in a bank acceptable to IDA (the Special Account). Upon credit effectiveness, the sum of US$100,000 equivalent would be disbursed into that account from IDA's Credit Account. These funds would be managed by the Project Coordinator (para 2.5) to cover project expenditures. It would be replenished by IDA on the basis of eligible withdrawal applications, submitted monthly. Normal documentation would be submitted with all applications except that incremental operating costs in local currency would be reimbursed against statements of expenditures with underlying documentation held available in Conakry for review by IDA missions. Should any disbursements be made from the Special Account which are not acceptable to IDA, the Government would deposit the corresponding amount in the IDA account or refund it to IDA. 5.10 Procurement - Estimates of the amounts to be procured by various methods are contained in Annex 9. Services. Most of the internationally recruited consultants, both long term and short term, would be provided by a consulting firm to be selected on the basis of proposals to be received from a short list of firms. Such a list would be approved by the co- financier that may be involved. The long-term advisor on  28 household surveys would be employed through a direct contract between the Government and the Canadian Government which would finance the advisor out of the its contribution to the Project. The qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment for all internationally-recruited advisors would be subject to approval by IDA. Draft terms of reference for the long-term consultants are shown on Annex 7. Goods. Items will be grouped to the extent possible to encourage competitive bidding. Contracts exceeding US$100,000 in value would be concluded after full international competitive bidding acceptable to the Bank. Contracts amounting less than US$100,000 but more than US$25,000 would be awarded following local competitive bidding procedures according to Bank guidelines. Minor items costing US$25,000 equivalent or less, in a total amount not to exceed US$500,000 equivalent, would be purchased through quotations from not less than three reputable suppliers. All contracts estimated to cost more than US$25,000 equivalent would be subject to IDA approval after prior review of procurement documentation. It would be impractical for IDA or the PEMU to review in detail the procurement procedures of NGOs and other agencies implementing sub-projects, but the agreements between the Government and such agencies would stipulate that the latter would conduct their procurement in accordance with prudent business practice. 5.11 Accounts and Audits. The Government would maintain separate accounts for all expenditures made under the Project. The accounts and statements of expenditure would be audited each year by external auditors acceptable to IDA. The audit reports would be submitted to IDA no later than six months following the end of the Government's fiscal year. 5.12 Reporting. The Project Coordinator would prepare semi-annual reports to IDA, as of June 30 and December 31 of each year, describing the progress of all components of the Project, problems encountered, solutions adopted, and the program of work for the following semester. Each report would include copies of the reports that the Government had received from agencies implementing sub-projects and a report from PPMU describing its sub-project monitoring work in the preceding semester, again highlighting problems encountered and solutions adopted. 5.13 Supervision. IDA would devote considerable staff resources to the supervision of this innovative project, financed in part from the Bank's administrative budget and in part from the non-Bank budget of the internationally-supported SDA Unit. The Bank's Resident Mission in Conakry would play an especially important role in supervision. Bank staff would monitor the conclusion of contracts for consultants and equipment. A Project Launching Workshop will be organized with the participation of Bank staff soon after credit effectiveness, to review with senior Project staff and the long-term consultants the Project's objectives, its design and its first year work program. Throughout the life of the Project, Bank staff would advise on the content of the program of socio-economic studies, and on the design and operations of the permanent household survey and the  29 analysis of its results. Bank staff will review all sub-projects using funds from the Pilot Program, and will grant or withhold IDA approval for such sub-projects. Follow-up missions from headquarters will follow progress regularly, and will visit, on a random basis, a sample of the sub- projects financed under the Pilot Program. VI. Benefits and Risks of the Project 6.1 Benefits. In the short term, the Project will provide, (i) technical support to strengthen the Government's capabilities in social policy planning; (ii) a statistical base on the level and evolution of household living conditions; and (iii) experience in designing and implementing, mainly through pilot sub-projects carried out by NGOs, actions that will improve the access of poor and disadvantaged groups to increased employment opportunities and basic social services. In the medium term, the Project will lay the basis for: (i) refined targeting of vulnerable groups; and (ii) the development of a comprehensive social oolicy consistent with efficient growth-oriented economic policies. The timing of the Project is appropriate since it reinforces the positive effects of SAL II and is complementary to PAGEN II. 6.2 Risks. The first risk of the Project is that there may be delays in implementing the project arising from the inexperience of the Government staff that will manage the project. A second risk is that pilot sub-projects selected may not be in conformity with the action programs of line ministries, since such programs are still at an early stage of development. A third risk is that implementation and coordination difficulties may occur as a result of the complexity of the Project. A fourth and final risk is that one or more of the NGOs selected to implement sub-projects may not manage project funds efficiently. 6.3 The first risk would be countered by providing experienced advisors to key project managers, whose main assignment would be to help develop the abilities of those managers. The second risk would be minimized by involving the line ministries concerned in the approval of sub-projects. The third risk would be reduced by appointing a Socio- Economic Policy Advisor and giving a strong project coordination function to the office of the Minister of Planning. The fourth risk would be reduced by applying appropriate procedures for the selection and supervision of NGOs and by the careful drafting of sub-project agreements, while recognizing that unduly close supervision may impede the work of the NGOs, whose principal advantage lies in their flexibility and ability to reach their beneficiaries through imaginative and unbureaucratic actions. Disbursements would be in installments as justified by progress in sub- project implementation.  30 VII. Agreements and Recommendation 7.1 Agreements. During negotiations, agreement was reached on the following matters: (a) establishment of the National Commission on Social Policy no later than December 31, 1989 (para 2.4); (b) establishment of the position of socio-economic advisor in the office of the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation (para 2.5); (c) recruitment of an advisor to assist the Division of Human Resources and 'Jocial Policy in preparation and execution of the program ov social policy studies (para 4.6); (d) appointment of a specialist experienced in the design and operation of household surveys to advise the Chief of the Division of Surveys and Price Indices (para 4.14); (e) establishment by September 1, 1989 of the Users' Committee to advise on the permanent household survey (para 4.15); (f) establishment of the Pilot Project Management Unit (PPMU) and its staffing, including an advisor with experience in project planning (para 4.19); (g) criteria for selection of sub-projects to be financed under the Pilot Program, and on the content of evaluation reports (para 4.18 and Annex 4); (h) procedures for sub-project approval, including the establishment and composition of an inter-ministerial screening committee (paras. 4.20 and 4.21). 7.2 Conditions of Effectiveness: (a) appointment of the socio-economic advisor in the office of the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation (para 2.5); (b) appointment of an experienced specialist in household surveys to advise the Division of Surveys and Price Indices (para 4.13); (c) establishment of PPMU and appointment of its manager and advisor (para 4.19); (d) effectiveness of the AfDF and CIDA financing (para 5.5); (e) establishment of the Goveunment's local currency account, and payment of US$50,000 equivalent into the account by the Government (para 5.6)  31 7.3 Condition of Disbursement Disbursement for equipment for the MPCI annex would be conditional on start-up of construction of the annex. 7.4 Recommendation On the terms and conditions propose, the Project is suitable for financing with an IDA Credit of SDR 6.9 million (US$9.0 million equivalent).  32 Annex 1: Page 1 of 2 Annex 1 Extract from 1988 Declaration of the Government of Guinea's Development Policy The Social Dimensions of Adjustment 1. The Economic and Financial Reform Program, while allowing for an acceleration in the real growth of GDP, will lead, in the medium and long term, to an increase in employment, income and per capita consumption, and finally to an improvement in the welfare of the people. The social benefits of the program are already visible in rural areas and in the increased activity of private enterprises, particularly those in the informal sectoL. The Government is counting on the start-up of operations by privatized public enterprises to sustain this improvement in welfare over the long tenu. 2. While awaiting the full benefits of growth and during the current transition period, vulnerable groups may be affected by the adjustment. Two direct social costs are unemployment and a drop in income as a result of the cutbacks in the number of civil servants. The administrative reform begun in 1986 will, as noted, lead to a restructuring and reduction in the number of public employees, but also to an equitable wage policy that will be an incentive for workers, and to a reclassification of employees affected by the reform. Initially, the emphasis was on the quantitative objectives, although the restructuring, equity and improvement of working conditions (notably, remuneration and work conditions) were also important considerations. 3. The success of this sensitive operation and attainment of the objectives require greater attention to the environment of employees and the dissemination of information about alternatives. Otherwise, the civil service could become rigid, a situation that would inhibit change and jeopardize the broader economic reforms. 4. The Government's PIP emphasizes labor-intensive projects accompanied by training programs. It also contains a preferential credit program for people who submit economically and financially viable investment proposals and departure grants for employees leaving the civil service. The Government will increase the assistance to former Government employees who want to open small-and medium-scale businesses. Special incentives could be created to direct them toward the agricultural sector (particularly in the case of agricultural engineers). 5. The need to assist civil servants who are laid off raises the more general problem of employment for other groups (for example, young unemployed graduates). Attention needs to be given to the development of an integrated training and employment policy.  33 Annex 1: Page 2 of 2 6. The working group studying the social dimensions of adjustment has identified certain vulnerable or high-risk groups in need of protection or specific support during this transitional adjustment period. The Government is paying particular attention to these groups in designing the Priority Action Program, which Includes projects aimed directly at upgrading their living conditions and ensuring their full participation in the economic recovery. An efficient means of reaching the underprivileged people in both urban and rural areas is the decentralization of administration, which will facilitate the delivery of health services, education and training. water supply, infrastructure for small collectives and the movement of agricultural output. Other national and international non-governmental organizat ons could provide other human, material and financial resources to assist these groups. 7. A particular concern is the city of Conakry. The lay-offs of civil servants and public enterprise employees, the numbers of unemployed graduates, a potential loss in purchasing power as a result of likely price increases (rent, water, electricity, transportation, food products and health services), a reduction in the stock of housing that will result from certain infrastructure projects, and pressure on the food budget of low- income groups and those without direct access to agricultural output could seriously affect the capital, and careful attention needs to be paid to this possibility. 8. At the institutional level, the Government intends to reinforce the administration's ability to draw up and implement the components of the social policy. The Government envisions three series of actions, with the assistance of the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the United Nation Development Programme: (i) implementation of a permanent survey of households to mcnitor changes in living conditions (jobs, incomes, consumption, nutrition and access to social services) during thp reform period; (ii) development of the administration's ability to perform the socio-economic studies necessary to design the social policy; and (iii) strengthening of the administration's ability to identify, evaluate and monitor programs and projects in order to foster the participation of the neediest in the country's growth.  34 Annex 2: Page 1 of 2 Annex 2 Program of Social Policy Studies 1. The program of social policy studies will take place over a period of four years, and will integrate the two components of social policy, that is: (i) the sectoral component; (ii) the macroeconomic component. A. The Sectoral Component 2. The sectoral component is composed of studies which would determine the social content of sectoral policies. In the future, data from the permanent household surveys will be used to formulate social policy for specific sectors. A series of Policy Papers will be prepared, covering in particular the following areas: (i) a study on the social indicators to be monitored in the various ministries in order to follow the living conditions of the households; (ii) a refinement of the poverty profile based or. the result of the Permanent Household Survey; (iii) nutrition and food security strategy; (iv) employment and labor policy; (v) promotion of the role of women in economic and social activity; (vi) an evaluation of the on-going program of compensatory measures such as the voluntary departure scheme and the BARAF; (vii) design of an action program to support the creation of small enterprises, and of serviced plots for such enterprises. B. The Macroeconomic Component 3. The macroeconomic component includes the studies which will specifically define and integrate social dimensions with macroeconomic policies. Examples of such studies include: (i) a study concerning the establishment of a matching fund system between the central and local governments, with the objective of transferring to the latter, responsibility for investments in certain types of infrastructure (e.g. water and sewerage, maintenance of rural roads) and the provision of social services (e.g. basic education, primary health care, nutrition);  35 Annex 2: Page 2 of 2 (ii) a study to determine a core of public social services which will provide a safety net for the most impoverished within the population and which will determine a minimum level of public investment and recurrent expenditures which would be necessary to maintain those public services; (iii) a policy study on the promotion of labor-intensive alternatives for projects financed by the Public Investment Program (PIP). (iv) studies of issues relevant to poverty alleviation such as the relation between employment and poverty, education and income, health and income, structure of welfare and poverty profile.  36 Annex 3: Page 1 of 7 Annex 3 Permanent Household Survey Plan of Operation Introduction 1. The permanent household survey will serve as an integral part of the evaluation process in the framework of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA) project in Guinea. It will. also function as an instrument for the production of a continuous stream of data on the living standards of Guinean households and will be a principal source of primary information for the analysis of data. 2. Survey results will contribute to the data base being developed in the framework of the SDA project for the monitoring of development programs in the participating countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. 1. Basic Principles 3. The following three basic principles are guidelines for the initial processing of the permanent household survey: (i) continuation and integration of surveys conducted previously t_ those scheduled in the future. The survey of the budgets of Conakry households is a typical example--this is expected to be extended in other cities of the country. Another example is the survey planned on the status of maternal and child care; (ii) com2bination of the findings of certain surveys now under way: nomenclature of the products and activities resulting from the survey on the informal sector and a reconstitution of the sampling base used for the agricultural census; (iii) decentralization of the survey by setting up district offices with locally hired contract staff to carry out the survey. II. Organization of the Survey 4. The survey will be conducted by the Division of Surveys and Price Indices within the Direction GUndrale de la Statistique et de l'Informatique of the MPCI. Six regional offices will operate in other parts of the country. A. The Conakry Central Unit 5. The Central Unit in Conakry will have a permanent survey team responsible for carrying out the permanent household survey. The survey team will operate under the guidance of the Director of the DEM.  37 Annex 3: Page 2 of 7 6. The permanent survey team will consist of: - the Director of the DEIP - a technical survey advisor - a computer systems analyst - a data processing specialist - an administrative and financial assistant - a secretary 7. The Director, assisted by his technical advisor will be responsible for the results of the technical survey. The systems analyst will be responsible for data processing. 8. A Central Unit in Conakry will consist of two survey teams responsible for collecting information on Conakry households. A field operations supervisor will be assigned to oversee and coordinate their activities as well as those in Boke, Kindia, and Labe. 9. The equipment of the Central Unit will consist of: - three vehicles - two for the teams, and one for the technical advisor - 4 microcomputers: one IBM PS/2 model 80; three computers type AT, and one voltage regulator - 2 printers - 1 generator - motor scooters for the survey teams in Conakry B. The Regional Offices 10. There will be six regional offices, in Boke, Faranah, Kankan, Kindia, Labe, and N'Zerekore. Each office will have a survey team. In addition, a field operations supervisor will be assigned to the Kankan office, and will be responsible for the overall coordination of the work of the Kankan, Faranah and N'Z6r6kor6 teams. 11. Suitable offices for the survey teams have been identified by the regional authorities of Boke, Labe, Kankan, and N'Zerekore. Because of time constraints, the mission was unable to visit Faranah and Kindia. Agreements have been reached with MPCI officials to make available similar appropriate offices in these two regional towns. 12. The regional offices will be responsible for collecting information on the households and storing them on diskettes, which will then be sent to Conakry for processing.  38 Annex 3: Page 3 of 7 13. The equipment of these regional offices will consist of: - 7 vehicles--6 for the teams, 1 for the Kankan supervisor - 10 microcomputers - 10 printers - 6 generators C. The Survey Team 14. Each survey team will consist of: - 1 supervisor - 2 enumerators - 1 anthropometrist (to be provided by Ministry of Health) - 1 data entry operator - 1 driver - 1 watchman for the regional office 15. The supervisor will be responsible for the work of the survey team. A vehicle and a microcomputer will be assigned to each team. 16. The vehicle will be used to transport the driver, the supervisor, the two data technicians, and the anthropometrist. With the vehicle, the staff will visit areas already agreed upon, four to five days per week, to gather data on households. At the end of the week, the staff will submit the completed questionnaires to the office. 17. The data entry operator will remain in the office, and will use the computer to enter the questionnaires into diskettes. The diskettes will be sent to Conakry at regular intervals for processing, either by airplane or by car, depending on the distance. 18. Office supplies for the survey (pencils, paper, scales, yardsticks) and for data processing (computer paper, diskettes) will be provided for the team. Fuel will also be provided for the vehicle and the electrical generators. III. Methodological Aspects 19. Certain methodological features may be described at this point for the permanent survey. They are concerned with the formation of the sampling base, drawing of the sample, drafting of the questionnaires, hiring of the survey staff, and the analysis categories. All aspects will be developed slowly over time in order that the ideal objective be accomplished in four years. A. Establishment of the Sampling Base 20. Unfortunately, the 1983 census is not a reliable basis for the survey. Most of its figures are questionable. The official population count for Guinea is 5.7 million, but it was obtained through rectification of the census cards that posted a total of 4.6 million. In addition, the  39 Annex 3: Page 4 of 7 justification for the coefficients used to obtain the present figure is not uniformly accepted, nor is it explained anywhere. 21. However, air flights over the territory tend to confirm that there were some gaps in the census coverage, resulting from the scattered pattern of housing in certain areas and difficult access to certain villages. A specified amount of cartographic work should, therefore, be scheduled to reestablish the basis for sampling. The lists of villages in the census, the operative accuracy of the geographic division, and the borders of the urban districts, all have to be rechecked. Existing aerial photos will be useful for this purpose. They are still valid for the rural areas but the borders of urban areolar zones must be redefined, given the recent growth of certain cities (such as Kapkan). A survey should be conducted to determine whether more recent aerial coverage exists (particularly any flights conducted by the national meteorological service). Then, one or two photo interpreters should be recruited temporarily to draw the urban grids with help from urban development service officials. B. Drawing of the Sample 22. A random sample of some 3,200 households could be accomplished by using eight teams, with each team covering 400 households--two per day per data technician, five days of the week. The survey would require two visits to the same household at intervals of fifteen days. 23. The teams would work for 40 weeks. Four weeks would be reserved for leave, and another four for refresher courses. Should the teams be put on a 44-week schedule, the sample may be increased by 160 households. If it is found desirable to increase the representation of certain groups, this option may be considered. 24. For practical purposes, about 80 primary sampling units in urban ares may be used (areolar zones and districts as primary sampling units) consisting of clusters of ten households; and approximately 120 primary sampling units (villages) in rural areas, consisting of clusters of 20 households. This would reflect the distribution of the population, which amounts to about 700 thousand inhabitants in Conakry and 200 thousand in the large cities. The urban population accounts for one-fifth of the total. The number of villages could always be increased, but that might complicate the distribution of households in space and time. Half of the sample of households will be renewed each year. Renewal of the primary sampling units could eventually be scheduled. C. Preparation of the Questionnaires 25. The questionnaires will be set up to record information on numerous aspects of household economic life. Preparation of the questionnaires will take into account the specific data needed in the future by members of the Users' Committee. The questionnaires will be drafted in French. But a glossary of key concepts will be prepared in the local tongues to ensure that the correct translation is used by the survey  40 Annex 3: Page 5 of 7 teams. The questionnaires will be tested in the diffezent regional offices. D. Recruitment of Staff 26. Survey personnel--supervisors, data technicians and data entry operators--will be hired on contract locally for each regional office. This will ensure that the survey teams include a representative selection of languages. The support of the local authorities will be enlisted for recruitment. 27. Recruitment requires the design of tests to determine data collecting aptitude: resistance to fatigue and monotony; the ability to understand and carry out instructions; and familiarity with the area. The applicants with the highest scores will be hired to conduct the survey. 28. Controllers will be chosen from among the best survey agents. The data entry operators will be selected from the pollers who show the greatest aptitude for feeding data into the computer. Staff training of survey personnel will be centralized in Conakry to make sure that the same training is given to everyone. The supervisors will be chosen separately from a short-list of candidates who display marked aptitude for such responsibilities. E. The Analysis Categories 29. Determining the analysis categories will be based on the following geographic criteria: - urban area and rural area - in the urban area: Conakry and the other cities - in the rural area: maritime (lower) Guinea; middle Guinea, upper Guinea, and the forested Guinea highlands. 30. In order to determine the analysis categories, these criteria may be put together with a variable representing the standard of living and the income brackets. IV. Planning of the Survey 31. The project is scheduled to start in July 1989 and will last for four years. The permanent survey will take about eight months to prepare (February 1990 through September 1990). The permanent survey could thus be scheduled for the field by October 1990. 32. The preparatory tasks include ten major overlapping phases, which should be carried out between July 1989 and February 1990. They consist of the following: Identification of specific information needs (two weeks); Structuring of data to be collected (four weeks);  41 Annex 3: Page 6 of 7 Preparation of work schedules (six weeks); Sample design: sampling strategy (two weeks); cartographic work (eight weeks); census of primary units (six weeks); Research and analysis of available statistical information (four weeks); Staff recruitment and training: selection and tests (four weeks); primary units census (one week); Questionnaire design, testing, and adaptation (ten weeks); translation (four weeks); printing (twelve weeks); Data entry, dictionary of variables, specification and consistency controls (seven weeks, not including updating software programs); Project institutionalization and publicity (twelve weeks); Central Unit and Regional Offices implantation (ten weeks). The preparatory phases will receive support from missions of short-term consultants in the areas of sampling, cartography, staff recruitment, and data processing. V. The Detailed Cost 33. The detailed cost reflects the various aspects of the institutional organization of the survey: existence of offices, type of staff, equipment, etc. Certain items should nevertheless be clarified. (i) The wages of the contractual survey staff have been estimated on the basis of current private sector wage scales. Only the Director of the DEIP and his assistant would be civil servants; (ii) The purpose of the consulting missions will be threefold: preparations for the survey (sampling plan, data processing, etc.); practical training in data analysis and drafting socioeconomic studies; and evaluation of projects designed to produce an impact on the needy population sectors; (iii) Staff training includes: refresher courses for data technicians and data entry operators; training of supervisors in data analysis theory; the organization of national and regional seminars to publicize the methods and results; and study visits abroad; (iv) The buildings to be used for the regional offices and the central unit in Conakry will be refurbished before the offices are occupied so as to provide the air conditioning equipment required for the computer rooms and install the electrical generators;  42 Annex 3: Page 7 of 7 (v) A provision has been made for the purchase of comprehensive insurance for the vehicles, as well as maintenance expenses for vehicles, electrical generators, and computers.  43 Annex 4: Page 1 of 1 Annex 4 Outline of Sub-project Appraisal Reports SUBJECTS TO BE COVERED BY PEMU IN EVALUATION REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL SUB-PROJECTS TO BE FINANCED BY THE PILOT PROGRAM OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Target group Location Description of activities Duration Consistency with sectoral strategy Project organization Experience of managing agency Involvement of local population Staffing - provision for training Equipment Cost (include work sheet showing assumptions and build-up of cost estimates) Financing (all sources, including in-kind contributions) Cost recovery Procurement and disbursement arrangements Reporting arrangements Benefits (including economic rate of return, if applicable) Risks Follow-up (supervision) plan  Annex 5: Page 1 of 1 Annex 5 SOCIAL c--VELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT BASE COST ESTIMATES (US t: thousand) ITEM 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 LOCAL FOREICN TOTAL I. Project Coordination - LTC Remuneration 12.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 12.0 96.0 0 0 96.0 - Subsistence and Lodging 16.8 33.6 33.6 33.6 16.8 134.4 0.0 134.4 - International Travel 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 24.0 - STC Remuneration 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Subsistence and Lodging 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - International Travel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Other International & National Travel 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 4.8 0.0 4.8 - Vehicles 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 42.0 - Vehicles Operations and Maintenance 2.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.3 2.2 14.2 16.4 - Fuel 3.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.5 0.0 28.0 28.0 - Computers and Servicing 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.6 6.6 - Equipment and Servicing 20.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 1.8 0.0 32.8 32.8 - Furniture 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 - Telecommunications 0.6 1.2 1.2 r.2 0.6 4.8 0.0 4.8 - Local Salaries and other Operating Costs 5.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 5.8 41.6 4.8 46.4 - Annual Audit 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 60.0 60.0 II. Div. Res. Hum. & Politiquo Social. - LTC Remuneration 0.0 117.6 58.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 176.4 176.4 - Subsistence and Lodging 0.0 33.6 16.8 0.0 0.0 50.4 0.0 50.4 - International Travel 0.0 6.0 S.O 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 - STC Remuneration 142.0 98.0 98.0 68.0 36.0 32.0 410.0 442.0 Subsistence and Lodging 42.0 27.0 27.0 18.0 9.0 123.0 0.0 123.0 - Other International and National Travel 15.4 9.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 42.4 42.4 - Vehicles 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - Vehicles Operations and Maintenance 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 3.5 3.9 fuel 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - Computers and Servicing 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.6 6.6 - Equipment and Servicing 10.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 17.1 17.1 - Furniture 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 4.0 4.0 - Telecommunications 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 4.8 0.0 4.8 - Local Salaries and other Ooorating Costs 20.4 30.2 30.6 31.4 8.4 96.3 39.2 135.4 III. Permanent Househ,ld Survey - LTC Remuneration 30.0 60.0 60.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 180.0 180.0 - Subsistenee and Lodging 16.8 33.6 33.6 16.8 0.0 100.8 0.0 100.8 - International Travel 3.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 18.0 - STC Remuneration 18.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 22.0 32.0 128.0 160.0 - Subsistence and Lodging 6.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 6.0 48.C 0.0 48.0 - International Travel 6.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 6.0 0.0 48.0 48.0 - Other International & National Travel 9.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 1.4 11.2 32.0 43.2 - Vehicles 131.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 131.4 131.4 - Vehicles Operations and Maintenance 15.7 31.3 31.3 31.3 15.9 23.9 101.7 125.5 - Fuel 14.5 29.0 29.0 29.0 14.5 0.0 116.0 116.0 - Computers and Servicing 141.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 141.8 141.8 - Equipment and Servicing 10.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 17.1 17.1 - Furniture 55.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.2 55.2 - Telecommunications 10.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.5 12.0 15.7 27.7 - Local Salaries and other Operating Costs 582.0 290.1 290.4 290.7 142.2 1039.3 556.1 1595.4 IV. Pilot Program of Socio-Economic Development - LTC Remuneration 58.8 117.6 117.6 117.6 58.8 0.0 470.4 470.4 - Subsistence and Lodging 16.8 33.6 33.6 33.6 16.8 134.4 0.0 134.4 - International Travel 6.C 6.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 24.0 - STC Remuneration 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Subsistence and Lodging 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Other International & National Travel 3.6 4.2 4.2 1.2 0.6 13.8 0.0 13.8 - Vehicles 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - Vehicles Operations and Maintenance 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 3.5 3.9 - Fuel 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - Computers and Servicing 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.6 6.6 - Equipment and Seorvicing 10.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 17.1 17.1 - Furniture 40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 - Telecommunicstions 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 7.2 0.0 7.2 - Local Salaries and other Operating Costs 5.3 10.4 11.1 11.8 6.4 40.2 4.8 45.0 TOTAL BASE PROJECT COST 1541.6 1132.9 1079.8 905.1 424.3 2053.9 3029.9 5083.8 TOTAL CONTINCENCIES 183.2 218.5 285.3 329.f; 181.7 763.0 436.0 1198.8 TOTAL PROJECT COST INCLUDING CONT. 1724.8 1351.4 1365.1 1234.7 606.0 2816.8 3465.8 6282.6 PILOT PROGRAM 600.0 1200.0 1800.0 1800.0 1800.0 3600.0 3600.0 7200.0 TOTAL PROJECT COST 2324.8 2551.4 3165.1 3034.7 2406.0 6416.8 7065.8 13482.6 TOTAL TAX ON EvQUIPMENT A PFJEL (pour memoire) (110.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (18.0) (218.00) 0.00 (218.00)  45 Annex 5: Page 1 of 1 Annex 6 Project Financing (US$ thousands) CATEGORY GOVT IDA AfDF CIDA NGOs TOTAL Long-Term Consultants --- 361 1023 386 --- 1770 Short-Term Consultants --- 170 666 --- --- 836 Computing and Other Equipment --- 472 --- 103 --- 575 (including service) Vehicles --- 64 --- 145 --- 209 Fuel and Lubricants 116 77 --- --- --- 193 Furniture --- 35 --- 38 --- 73 Incremental Operating 460 1821 177 168 --- 2626 Costs Pilot Program Sub-projects --- 6000 --- --- 1200 7200 576 9000 1866 840 1200 13,482  46 Annex 7: Page 1 of 6 Annex 7 Terms of Reference of Long-term Advisors Consultants: Socio-Economic Advisor Household Survey Advisor Social Policy Planning Advisor Management Advisor for Pilot Program of Socio-Economic Development  47 Annex 7: Page 2 of 6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ADVISOR Duration: 2 yrs., renewable Profile: A high level manager with a strong background in administration, management and socio-economics, and extensive experience in Africa, particularly in Guinea. He/She needs to be willing to travel and work in different rural zones. He/She must be proficient in French and have a good command of English. The successful candidate would preferably be a Guinean national, recruited abroad if necessary. Object of the Mission: The Socio-Economic Advisor will be placed directly under the authority of the Minister of Plan, at the level of the present Economic Advisor. The responsibilities of the consultant will be to; - advise the Minister on all socio-economic questions, especially those which are associated with the social consequences of development policies such as structural adjustment; - make concrete proposals concerning measures to be taken to improve the living conditions of the vulnerable groups of the population; - coordinate the activities of the different components of the Socio- Economic Development Support Project and ensure good management of the project; - ensure that there is effective interfacing between the project, the Guinean administration and the donor agencies. Functions of the Consultant: - Advise the Minister by preparing succinct reports about the socio- economic situation in the country and the status of the Projects' development; - serve as Secretary of the National Commission on Social Policy; - serve as chair of the official-level sub-committee of the Commission; - serve as chair of the Pilot Program screening committee; - accelerate the legal and administrative procedures with the Government and the donors related to the implementation and execution of the Project. Having responsibility for the Project will include: - ensuring daily supervision;  48 Annex 7: Page 3 of 6 - ensuring the appropriate management of the Project equipment and materials; - participating in all the meetings organized within the framework of the project; - assuring good distribution of all the information relating to the project, e.g. aide-memoires, verbal information and minutes of the meetings. - approving all expenditures incurred by the project; - guaranteeing proper accounting procedures for the project; - hiring and ensuring the training of all local personnel.  49 Annex 7: Page 4 of 6 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ADVISOR Duration: 2 yrs, renewable. Profile: The consultant needs to have a strong background in statistics and economics and computer science, and approximately 10 years experience with household surveys, preferably in Africa. He/She needs to be willing to travel and work in various rural areas. He/She must be proficient in French and have a good command of English. Objective: The consultant w.11 be the advisor to the Director of the Survey and Price Indices Division on the organization and operation of the permanent household survey organizational issues and on the monitoring of all the activities of the division. Functions of the Consultant: The consultant will assist the Director of the Survey and Price Indices Division with conception, start up and implementation of the permanent household survey, which will facilitate the monitoring of the evolution of the household living conditions in Conakry and in six regions in the interior of the country. In order to achieve that goal the consultant will: - ensure the training of personnel at all levels in the unit and country teams; - make concrete proposals to recruit short term specialists to deal with special problems that may arise from time to time; - advise the Director on the collection and analysis of data and the quality of socio-economic survey reports; - participate in the analysis of the results; - participate in the recruitment of personnel for the central unit and the regional survey teams;  50 Annex 7: Page 5 of 6 SOCIAL POLICY PLANNING ADVISOR Duration: 12 months, followed by short term missions Profile: The advisor must have a strong background in economics and at least 10 years professional experience in Africa, including experience addressing the social problems associated with the development policies. He/She will need to be able to travel and work in various rural areas. He/She needs to be proficient in French and have a good command of English. Objective of the Mission: Advise the Director of the Human Resource and Social Policy Division on the coordination of Social Policy and the monitoring of the social consequences of government macro-economic and sectoral policies. In collaboration with the technical departments concerned, organize the collection of information and the socio-economic studies disseminated in Guinea and elsewhere in order to establish a documentation center which will provide wide access to the data. Develop a permanent strategy to allow those segments of the population with low incomes to benefit from the fruits of economic and social development. Functions of the consultant: - Advise the Director of the Human Resource and Social Policy Division; - contribute to the elaboration of a study program which permits the clear definition of the socio-economic problems facing vulnerable groups and the principal obstacles to their access to basic services (education, health, water, etc.) and the development of employment and income generating projects. - assist in the execution of such study programs, which include the development of terms of reference for each study, their monitoring, and analysis of their conclusions; - advise the Division in the choice of experts participate in the implementation of the studies; - participate in the defining of elements of the social strategy which could be integrated in the development program; - participate in the training of researchers who can assist in making the studies, programs and essentially lead such studies; - advise on the collection and effective management of data in the socio- economic documentation center;  51 Annex 7: Page 6 of 6 ADVISOR TO THE PILOT PROGRAM OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Duration: 2 years, renewable. Profile: The consultant must have a strong background in economics, finance and project management. He/She must also have experience in project analysis, monitoring and evaluation and experience with project financing. He/She must have at least 5 years of professional experience in Africa. Preference would be given to experience working with non-governmental organizations. He/She must be willing to travel and work in various rural zones. He/She must be proficient in French and have a good command of English. Functions of the Consultant: - Advise the director of the Pilot Program Management Unit; - participate in the evaluation of sub-projects presented for financing to the Program in accordance with the criteria which were pre- established by the Government and the donors; - advise the director of the Unit on the administration of the finar.cing provided for sub-projects, and on the monitoring of the execution of those sub-projects; - participate in the analysis of progress reports of projects financed by the Program; - participate in the meetings of the screening committee of the Program; - assist with the elaboration of evaluation methods; - assist with the development of a supervision program; - advise on the recruitment and ensure effective training of personnel within the unit;  52 Annex 8: Page 1 of 1 Annex 8 Documents in the Project File 1. United Nations Development Programme: Evaluation of the Social Dimensions of Structural Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Republic of Guinea National Project Document, March 1988. 2. Government of Guinea, "Report of Task Force on Social Policy", Conakry, April 1988 (in French). 3. Secretariat d'Etat A la Decentralisation, "Les ONG en Guinee Face au Redressement Economique National", Conakry, June 1988 (in French). 4. Ministere de l'Industrie et du Commerce, "Etude sur le secteur informel en Guinee, 1987 (in French). 5. Government of Guinea, BARAF, Data on Status of BARAF Scheme as of October, 1988. 6. Plan and cost estimates for new MPCI annex. 7. Worksheets of project cost estimates.  53 Annex 9: Page 1 of 1 ANNEX 9 REPUBLIC OF GUINEA SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT PROCUREMENT METHODS (US $ thousands) (amounts in parentheses would be financed by IDA) ICB LCB OTHER NOT APPLICABLE TOTAL Nature of Costs Long-Term Consultants 1,720 1,720 (311) (311) Short-Term Consultants 836 836 (170) (170) Equipment, Furniture 378 a] 510 b] 354 c] d] 1242 and Vehicles (137) (495) (192) (824) Incremental Operating 2,334 2,334 Costs (1,545) (1,545) PPF Refinancing 150 150 (150) (150) Pilot Program 7,200 7,200 (6,000) (6,000) 378 510 5,244 7,350 13,482 (137) (495) (2,218) (6,150) (9,000) a] Vehicles and Computing Equipment b] Furniture and Other Office Equipment c] Vehicle Operating Costs (incl. fuel) d] Following Government Procurement Procedures  IBRD 2136S MAURITANIA 10 S E N E G A L SSENEGAL 8 ~M A LI ., -. - ^ ;zM A L I /jBURKINA M Ao (0' ''.f 10' -Join Fortst < _ . , - ARIT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I SOCIO-ECONMIC DEVELOMENT A ITerAtoa DAirOrt 8 | Savannah to Bush Savannah :KILOMSTtRS