Philippines - Issues and policies in the industrial sector (Vol. 3 of 3) : Statistical appendix

Report No, 6706-PH The Philippines Issues and Policies in the Industrial Sector (In Three Volumes) Volume ill: Statistical Appendix July 30, 1987 Country Department 11 Asia Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This report has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  FOR OFFICUAL USE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 1. This statistical appendix has been compiled from a wide array of sources. The attempt is to assemble in one place as much of the available data on industry and related matters as is possible. This has been made feasible because of special assistance provided by the following: Mrs. Melia Marquez Acting Director, National Census and Statistical Office, who made available a number of unpublished tables, particularly the initial results from the 1983 census of Establishments. W.C. Ortaliz Assistant Minister, Ministry of Trade and Industry. Fred Torres Bureau of Industrial Development, Ministry of Trade and Industry who helped in coordinating and collecting the data requested. Geoffrey Shepherd Who permitted the use of the unpublished Statistical F. Alburo Appendix to "Trade Liberalization: The Philippine Experience" World Bank - Country Policy Department (Processed). Richard Hooley For permission to use unpublished data base from Productivity Growth in Philippine M&nufacturing, Manila: Philippine Institute of Development Studies, 1985. Keun Huh Who provided the research assistance. Main Sources of Data 2. The main official sources of data are nc ed below: (a) National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO): They have the overall responsibility of coordinating and collecting statistics in the country. In addition to conducting the population census, they are also responsible for the following surveys: (i) Integrated Survey of Households: This is a nationwide quarte;ly survey of households which is the main, consistent source of informatioA on employment trends in the country. (ii) Census of Establishments: The census is conducted every five years and covers all establishments in the country, large and small. The coverage includes manufacturing, as well as non- manufacturing enterprises. Comparison with the employment data reveal that the census covers only a small portion of the employment in the unorganized sector. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - (iii) Annual Survey of Establishments is the annual counterpart to the census of establishments. The sampling of enterprises is done from the saple frame obtained from each quinquennial census. A major problem in the data is that there is little organized effort to include new firms which are born after the previous census. The result is that the sample becomes more and more unrepresentative with distance from the census years. A method should therefore be evolved to update the sample in each year in order to account for births and deaths of firms. (iv) Industry Trends: NCSO has only recently taken over the compilation of Industry Trends from VEDA. This consists of a monthly survey of about 200 large industrial establishments, surveyed with the purpose of providing quick economic indicators about manufacturing. One problem in the use of these data, which are otherwise admirably current is that only index numbers are provided for each sector and no information is given on relative weights. It is, therefore, not possible to do any aggregation other than that provided. (v) Philippine Foreign Trade Statistics are also compiled by the NCSO. (vi) PhilipMine Yearbook is a very useful compilation of current and historical Philippine Statistics. Its publication is a bit slow: The 1985 Yearbook, pertaining to information up to 1983, was only available in 1986. (b) National Economic Development Authority (ND A) (i) National Accounts: The Statistical branch of NEDA is mainly responsible for the National Accounts. The release of national accounts estimates is quite timely, and faster than many other countries. One main gap in the national accounts data is the lack of data on capital information by sector of destination. It is, therefore, difficult to track the Philippine economy on the basis of sectoral investments. There is probably enough information in the Philippine Statistical System such that the compilation of such a series will not pose insuperable problems. The other problem encountered in the use of national accounts data is the rather large variation between consumer price index, wholesale price index and the CNP deflator over long period of time (e.g. 1972-83). The GNP deflator has bieen among the slowest rising of all the available indexes: if this has resulted from some systematic error it would mean that GNP growth in the 1970s has been substantially over-stated in these years. Between 1972 and 1983, the relative movements of different indexes were as follows:  - iii - Z Annual Charge Consumer price index 12.7 Retail price index 13.0 Wholesale price index 15.7 CUP price deflator 12.9 GNP in current prices 19.0 An effort should therefore be made to clarify this problem. (ii) Inter-industry Accounts are also compiled by NEDA. The latest tables available are for 1979. Given the vast changes that have taken place in industry since then, it is very important that special efforts be made to compile these accounts for a recent year. (iii) The Statistical Yearbook is a useful collection of data published in a very timely fashion by NEDA. (c) Other Main Sources (i) Central Bank: Central Bank Statistical Bulletin Financial Statistics (ii) Ministry of Trade and Industry: Monthly Survey of Industries (Unpublished). Export data Board of Investments: data on investment incentives (iii) Business Days Top 1,000 Corporations Annual Publication giving key performance indicators for the top corporations in the Philippines 3. Key Data Problem (a) Employment Data: As mentioned earlier, some of the employment data are difficult to interpret because of seeming discrepancies between the Integrated Survey of Households, the Annual Survey of Establishments, the quinquennial census of Establishments and the Population Census. Since all of these are conducted by the same agency, the NCSO, an effort must be made to arrive at some consistent series of "employment accounts," sectorally disaggregated. (b) Wage Data: Since the Central Bank stepped its series of wages, there has beer. an almost complete lack of reliable data on wage trends in the country. This major lacuna must be rectified immediately. (c) Annual Surveys and Census of Establishments: The coverage of small establishments seems to be scanty and quite inconsistent with other data, such as they are, on unorganized employment. An effort must be made to-devise proper sampling procedures such that a more  - iv - representative sample is taken in the future. (The under coverage ef garments production has been documented in the garments chapter). (d) Price Series: As mentioned under "National Accounts," the CPI, WPI and GDP deflator series are difficult to reconcile. This must be done urgently since the estimate of real growth of the economy is crucially dependent in these series. (e) Data on Investment Incentives: At present, there is no system of tracking BOI incentives availed as distinguished from investments granted. This is important to do if the efficacy of various incentives is to be analyzed. A systematic data base in the Board of Investments should therefore be maintained.  PHILIPPINES STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table of Contents Table No. Page No. 1. POPULATION AND EMP?WYMENT 1.1 Population Estimates of Census Years and Population Projections.o ...o .... 00 .o...,.......... 1 1.2 Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment ... e.*......o. 2 1.3 Employed Persons by Major Sectors, 1956-86.....,..,...... 3 1.4 Changes in Employment Structure in Manufacturing, 1956-86.... *X*****v******ov*