Somalia - Agricultural Inputs Program Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CR, 161/.-5c Report No. P-4014-SO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED SDR 10.1 MILLION (US1.O0 MILLION) CREDIT TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR AN AGRICULTURAL INv-PUTS PROGRAM May 28, 1985 This document has a resbicted distribution and may be used by recipiens only in the perfonnauce of their offiEi duies. Its contets may nsot otherwise be disclosed without World Bank auiorbTioon.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Somali Shilling (So.Sh.) - 100 cents Official Exchange Rate: US$1.00 - So.5h. 38 (May 1985) Free Market Exchange Rate: US$1.00 - So.Sh. 81 (May 2, 1985) (determined daily) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Hectare (ha) 10,000 m2 1 Square Kilometer (km2) - 100 ha 1 Metric ton (mt) - 1,000 kg ABBREVIATIONS ADC = Agricultural Development Corporation AIP = Agricultural Inputs Program CIP = Commodity Import Program CSBS = Commercial and Savings Bank of Somalia ENC National Commercial Agency FRG = Federal Republic of Germany GOS = Government of Somalia ICB = International Competitive Bidding rMF = International Monetary Fund 'IC = Ministry of Industry and Commerce wP M= Ministry of National Planning MOA = Ministry of Agriculture MOF = Ministry of Finance ONAT = Tractor Hire Agency PPF = Project Preparation Facility SPPF Special Project Preparation Facility UJSAID = United States Agency for International Development GOVERNMENT OF SOMALIA FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OICIAL USE ONLY SOMALIA AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PROGRAM CREDIT AND PROGRAM SUMMARY Borrower: Somali Democratic Republic Beneficiaries: Agricultural, fisheries and livestock producers and distributors, and the Ministries of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Livestock. Amount: SDR 10.1 million (US$10 million equivalent). Terms: Standard. Cofinancing: DM 30 million (about US$9.5 million) grant from the Federal Republic of Germany. Project Description Objectives: The objectives of the program are: (a) to maintain, and ultimately increase, production in the agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors through provision of foreign exchange to import inputs; (b) to assist Government to rationalize the role of the public sector and to stimulate private sector activities in agriculture by carrying out a joint agricultural sector review and exchanging views with IDA on policy and institutional reform; (c) to stimulate the expansion of commercial dealerships and retail outlets for agricultural inputs; and (d) to provide agricultural inputs to support the Government's Economic Recovery Program in 1985. Components: (a) Part A - Commercial Imports: (US$12.2 million equivalent). Foreign exchange to be sold to individuals, firms or public sector agencies, at the market exchange rate to purchase letters of credit to import agricultural, fisheries and livestock equipment, spare parts and inputs. (b) Part B - Imports for Government: (US$2.7 million equivalent). Foreign exchange provided at the official exchange rate to the Ministries of Livestock, Fisheries and Agriculture This document has a restricted distribution and may be ued by rcipients only in the perfornance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  (ii) for plant protection services, spare parts to rehabilitate agricultural equipment at four workshops and other Imported items. (c) Part C - Diesel Fuel: (US$4.0 million equivalent). To be procured by Government, for sale for agricultural, fisheries and livestock purposes. (d) Part D - Technical Assistance: (US$0.6 million equivalent) Technical assistance and operating costs of a procurement unit for the administration of parts A, B, and C; technical assistance for preparing the spare parts list and rehabilitating agricultural equipment at the four workshops, and part of the cost of the agricultural sector task forces. Benefits: The principal benefits would be: (a) the maintenance of agricultural, livestock and fishery production made possible by the provision of the required inputs; and (b) stimulus to private entrepreneurs to expand their role in input supply and crop marketing. Risks: There is some risk that not all the funds provided under Part A will be readily disbursed, because the inputs would be imported at the more expensive free market exchange rate. However, demand is expected to be sufficient to absorb the funds provided. There will be a joint Government/IDA mid-term review in September 1985 of the status of disbursements. Estimated Disbursements: To be fully disbursed within IDA Fiscal Year 1986. Rate of Return: Not applicable. Appraisal Report: No appraisal report was prepared for this project.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR AN AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PROGRAM 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Somali Democratic Republic for SDR 10.1 (US$10.0 million equivalent) to finance an Agricultural Inputs Program. The Federal Republic of Germany will cofinance the program with a grant of DM 30 million (about US$9.5 million equivalent). PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report on the economy entitled: "Somalia - Policy Measures for Rehabilitation and Growth' (Report No. 408la-SO) was distributed to the Executive Directors in May 1983. An economic mission visited Somalia in May 1984; its report ent'tled Somalia - Maintaining the Recovery Program- is being prepared; its preliminary conclusions are reflected in this report. The Resource Base 3. Somalia is a large, sparsely populated country; its varied topography includes a hot and arid coastal plain, rugged mountains and plateaus, and lowlands of varying fertility and rainfall. Its population of about 5.3 million is unevenly distributed over a land area of nearly 638,000 sq km of semi-desert. Population growth in recent years has been about 3 percent (excluding refugee inflows) which will result in long-term pressure on the fragile resource base. Only about 13 perceat of the lend is suitable for cultivation, but with water the main constraint, only a small fraction (8.5 percent) of this potentially arable land is cultivated. 4. The mainstay of the economy has long been nomadic pastoralism. Over 60 percent of the people depend on livestock for their livelihood. Livestock production accounts for about 35 percent of GDP and provided, until recently, over 80 percent of export earnings. Crop production generates about 8 percent of GDP. Although Somalia has one of the longest coastlines (3,000 km) in Africa, and has considerable potential for fish development, fishing generates only about 2 percent of both GDP and employment. 5. The country's limited natural resource base and its limited uncertain hydrocarbon energy potential account for the scarcity of economically viable investment opportunities. Apart from the traditional  - 2 - export of livestock, commercial agriculture is centered mainly on the production and export of bananas and the production of sugar and maize for the domestic market. Expansion of the manufacturing and service sectors is limited by the small size of the domestic market, poor infrastructure, and shortages of capital and entrepreneurial experience. The existence of several minerals has been confirmed, but their exploration is still at an early stage, and the commercial viability of production remains to be proved. 6. A number of foreign companies have been engaged in onshore and offshore exploration of hydrocarbons but so far no commercially viable oil prospects have emerged. However, investigations under an IDA project for petroleum exploration promotion have indicated possible natural gas reserves near Mogadishu which could be used for power generation In substitution for petroleum imports. An IDA credit to finance the first phase of a two-stage delineation program was approved by the Executive Directors on May 1, 1984. In the absence of other known resources, Somalia's prospects depend upon agricultural and livestock development, whose progress will depend upon careful management of the scarce land and water resources. 7. Somalia is among the poorest countries in the world and is classified by the United Nations as a least-developed country. Per capita income was estimated at $ 266 in 1982. Other indicators of the country's low level of social and economic development include: a crude death rate estimated at 20 per thousand population (compared to a crude birth rate of 50 per thousand); an average life expectancy of only 46 years; an infant mortality rate as high as 150 per thousand population; primary and secondary enrolment ratios of 50 percent and 7 percent, respectively; and a ratio of nearly 20,000 persons per physician. Past Development Strategy and Performance 8. Following its assumption of power in 1969, the Gover.nent adhered to a program of "scientific socialism" whose stated objectives were egalitarianism and social justice, development through the public sector, nationalization of certain foreign enterprises, and the formation of cooperatives. Public ownership and management expanded both through nationalizations and through the creation of new public enterprises. The parastatal sector established in the 1970s included about 45 autonomous agencies which eliminated private enterprise in wholesale trade and banking and which dominated manufacturing. 9. In the earLy 1970s Somalia made considerable progress in meeting certain basic needs. A program of literacy and primary education had notable results, and an effective system of food distribution was also established. In other respects, however, the record in the social sectors  - 3 - has been less impressive, particularly in water supply, sanitation and health, where services have frequently been blased in favor of the urban population. Moreover, there are indications that there has been a trend towards increasing income differentiation within the rural sector. 10. On the production side, during the 1970s the Somali economy experienced stagnation in production and a decline in per capita income. Only the services sector grew during the period, by 3.5 percent per year and the growth in government services, at an annual rate of about 7 percent, was particularly striking. Beginning in 1981, the economy witnessed a reversal of the past trend, with real CDP in 1981-82 growing on average by 6.4 percent per year notwithstanding some decline in the services sector. 11. Over 100,000 Somalia have migrated to work in neighboring oil-exporting countries in the Gulf area. As labor migration has been neither organized nor controlled by the Government, it has led to a severe depletion of omalia's already small stock of qualified and skilled manpower, thereby weakening institutions and reducing the country's absorptive capacity. The savings of these emigrants are potentially an important resource for the economy, but despite substantial adjustment of the exchange rate, only a small proportion of emigrants' savings is remitted, largely through unofficial channels. 12. Following a border conflict with Ethiopia in 1977/78, there was a great surge in Government expenditures which resulted in widened deficits in both the budget and the balance of payments. During 1978-80, the Government's financial situation deteriorated rapidly, mainly because of the sizeable expansion in expenditures consequent upon the border conflict, the cost of maintaining large numbers of refugees, and the wage bill associated with the Government's policy of guaranteeing employment for secondary school leavers. At the same time, official foreign aid declined. This resulted in Government recourse to deficit financinr- With further deteriorat.on ir *-he budgetary situation in 1979 the Government's recourse to the Central Bank rose to record levels (about 13 percent of GDP). This, in turn, led to -apid inflation, from 10 percent in 1978 to 60 percent in 1980. 13. Official data on Somalia's balance of payments are incomplete and provide a very deficient basis for analyzing trade and capital movements. It may nevertheless be concluded that Somalia had a reasonably comfortable overall balance of payments position up to the beginning of 1979. The stagnation in exports and surge in imports since 1979 resulted in a widening of both the current and overall balance of payments deficits. The current account deficit during 1980-83 averaged $290 million, as compared to $110 million in the years 1977-78. Total international reserves, which rose steadily in the 1970s to $158 million in March 1979, dropped to $15  - 4 - million at the end of December 1980, and have since then remained at about this level (about two weeks' imports). 14. The stagnation of export earnings and the near zero level of domestic savings have rendered Somalia entirely dependent upon external assistance for the financing of development. After joining the Arab League in 1974, Somalia mounted a major effort to attract funds from the Arab petroleum exporting countries. The large inflows of external capital and transfers from 1975 onwards indicate that the effort has been successful. After 1977, the sources of foreign assistance shifted from the centrally planned economies (except for the People's Republic of China, which maintains a large program) towards Arab bilateral and multilateral institutions and OECD countries, several of which have had substantial assistance programs for a number of years. According to OECD data, Somalia's receipts of ODA during the period 1980-1982 nearly $400 million per year, equivalent to some $75 per capita per year. 15. Somalia's external debt burden has grown rapidly in recent years and amounted to about $1,500 million at end 1983, representing about fifteen times the value of recorded exports in that year. The structure and terms of borrowing have also hardened. As a result, the country's debt service burden has grown steeply. The debt service ratio rose from 7 percent in 1979 to 27 percent in 1982 and is projected (without debt relief) at over 100 percent in 1985. The country also has accumulated debt service arrears. IMF and the World Bank staff have encouraged the Government to seek debt relief where possible on concessional terms. 16. In sum, Somalia experienced in the late 1970s and into the early 1980s an economic and financial crisis characterized by: stagnation in production and exports; a rapidly rising budget deficit financed through recourse to the banking system; rapidly rising inflation; a worsening balance of payments situation; a critical loss of foreign reserves; and a worsening external debt situation. This crisis reflected not only adverse developments in the international economy, but also past and current weaknesses in economic management. Policy Changes 17. As the financial crisis deepened through 1978-1980, the Government became convinced of the need to take remedial action and embarked on a course of moving towards a more market-oriented economy. Beginning in early 1981, the Government successfully implemented two successive stabilization programs supported by IMF standby arrangements. The measures taken under these programs included adjustment of the exchange rate, fiscal and monetary restraint, and de facto liberalization of agricultural marketing. Under the first standby program, a dual exchange rate was introduced, producer prices for agricultural crops were increased,  - 5 - and banana growers received the full benefit of devaluation. This program also involved a substantial reduction in Government recourse to the banking system and increased interest rates. 18. Following the completion of the 1981/82 program, a new stabilization program was adopted in mid-1982, supported by the IMF with an SDR 60 million 18-month standby arrangement for the period July 1982-December 1983. Under this program, several key policy measures were taken: the dual exchange rate was unified on July 1, 1982, the Somali shilling was again devalued, and interest rates were raised. The Government also restricted fiscal and monetary expansion. In January 1983, a bonus scheme was introduced providing for a premium of 25 percent in foreign exchange terms of inward remittances and capital inflows by Somali nationals. These actions were reinforced in mid-1983, when Somalia introduced a more flexible exchange rate system. Under the nev arrangement the Somali shilling was pegged to the SDR adjusted by the relative rates of inflation between Somalia and the five countries in the SDR basket. However, the beneficial effects of these measures were overshadowed by the negative impact of a ban on Somali cattle imports by Somalia's major client (which has been in effect since May 1983) and by the impact of a drought that began in 1983 and continued into 1984. 19. The Government decided in 1983 to abandon its policy of guaranteed employment to high school leavers. An interministerial committee reviewed the future of public enterprises and the Government is now in the process of determining which public enterprises should be phased out of operation, which privatized, and which retained in the public sector. Another step to liberalize the economy was the de facto elimination of the Government monopoly on grain purchases. 20. The policy reforms introduced by the Government from 1981-83 had a positive impact on the economy. Reductions were effected in the rate of growth of the money supply, in Government recourse to tbe banking system, and in the rate of inflation. There was also some increase in commodity production and exports. These measures represent the first stage in the formulation and implementation of a policy agenda directed at restoring financial equilibrium, rehabilitating and making fuller use of existing agricultural and industrial productive capacity, and establishing the foundations for long-term growth. 21. In March 1983 the Government requested the Bank to organize a first Consultative Group meeting for Somalia. It then proceeded to prepare a Medium Term Recovery Program (MTRP) for presentation to the Consultative Group meeting. As outlined by the Government in a paper entitled Development Strategy and Public Investment Programme for 1984-86", the MTRP consists of (i) a program of phased policy measures aimed at restoring equilibrium in the balance of payments and public finances and at  - 6 - rationalizing the pricing and incentive structure; and (ii) a resource-constrained Public Investment Program (PIP) for the period 1984-86. The formulation of this recovery program represented a major accomplishment. 22. The inaugural meeting of the Consultative Group for Somalia was held in October 1983. Participants were encouraged by the remedial measures taken by the Government under the 1981-83 stabilization programs and by the Government's pursuit of its new policies. In particular, participants appreciated the formulation of the public investment program and the emphasis in the program on rehabilitation and improved utilization of existing facilities. The participants welcomed in particular the substantial adjustments made by the Government in the size and composition of the investment program at the Consultative Group meeting. These adjustments included postponing some new projects pending results of new studies, rephasing the implementation of ongoing projects and introducing new high-priority schemes such as the rehabilitation of irrigation in the Shebelli region. Participants at the meeting responded favorably to the external aid requirements of the public investment program and other elements in the recovery program for 1984-86. It was recognized at the meeting that further financial aid to Somalia should be on highly concessional terms and that Somalia should attempt to secure debt relief on concessional terms. 23. Following the Consultative Group meeting, intensive discussions between the Government and donors were held concerning follow-up action on the development of the Juba Valley, including the proposed Bardhere Dam, and agreement was reached with the Bank on terms of reference and a timetable for a study of interim water solutions; the study is being financed under the first IDA Technical Assistance credit. IDA has also granted an advance under the Project Preparation Facility (PPF) to finance the preparation of a scheme for rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure in the Shebelli region. A USAID financed Civil Service Study has been reviewed by the Government and arrangements for follow-up are being made. Some initial measures under consideration to improve the civil service are: reduce the size, reassign staff to other economic activity, intensify training programs and gradually improve the salary structure. 24. After effectively implementing the 1981-83 stand-by arrangements, the Government approached the IMF for further balance of payments support under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to deal with the country's structural and short- to medium-term financial problems. Agreement in principle on such a program was reached in early 1984, but in the event key measures were not implemented, and neither an EFF nor a standby arrangement was put into effect during 1984.  -7- Recent Developments 25. After having Improved markedly between mid-1981 and late 1983, In 1984 the Somali economy came under increasing stress. This situation emerged from (1) the acute shortage of foreign exchange due to the fall in livestock exports (ii) a drop in domestic food production owing to a drought ln 1983 and the lateness of rain In early 1984; and (ili) the March 1984 government decision not to go ahead with the IMF program. Following the breakdown of the stabilization program, the exchange rate In the parallel market fell steeply. In addition, there was a sharp acceleration in monetary expansion, fueled largely by a rapid expansion In net credit to the Government. The money supply in 1984 rose by about 74 percent, as compared to less than 5 percent In 1981. As a result, domestic inflation rose from 32 percent in 1983 to over 90 percent in 1984. 26. As the economy deteriorated, the Government came to realize the need for new corrective measures. Following an IMF mission and a parallel Bank mission in early September 1984, the Government adjusted the exchange rate. During the 1984 Bank/Fund Annual Meeting discussions, the Minister of Finance reiterated Somalia's commitment to a recovery program emphasizing development of the productive sectors, rehabilitation and full utilization of existing capacities, and encouragement of the private sector. The Minister also confirmed the Government's decision to reopen its dialogue with the IMF. 27. In connection with the design and negotiation of the stand-by arrangement, Bank staff reviewed the Government's draft Public Investment Program for 1985; following some adjustments by the Government, Bank staff informed the IMF staff that it considered the PIP broadly consistent with the country's development needs and objectives. Bank staff also provided advice and assistance to the IMF on issues concerning further liberalization of agricultural marketing and pricing and reform of public enterprises. Major new policy actions under the new IMF program include: (a) devaluation of the Somali shilling by almost 50 percent and introduction of a free foreign exchange market for nearly all private sector transactions; (b) abolition of price controls; (c) restriction of credit and severe fiscal limits; (d) civil service staff reductions; (e) arrangements to improve debt management and regularize Somalia's relations with creditors; (f) increases in interest rates; and (g) public enterprise reforms. 28. On January 1, 1985 the Government implemented nearly all the preconditions to the IMF standby program. These included a freely floating system for the determ'nation of the market exchange rate for most private sector transactions, and virtual elimination of all trade restrictions. On  - 8 - a transitional basis, an official exchange rate for government transactions has been maintained. The official exchange rate was devalued by 38 percent in domestic currency terms and is to be adjusted each month by the difference between domestic and international inflation plus an additional 0.5 Somali Shillings per US dollar. The IMF expects the official rate to be unified with the market exchange rate in the near future. 29. On January 23, 1985 the Bank held a special meeting of the Consultative Group for Somalia to mobilize financial support for the country's balance of payments in 1985. At this meeting about US$80 million were committed in additional support for 1985. Subsequently, the IMF Board approved, on February 22, 1985, an SDR 22 million stand-by arrangement and a SDR 33 million Compensatory Financing Facility. At a meeting of the Paris Club on March 4, 1985, Somalia was accorded a favorable rescheduling of its debts (arrears and principal) by its major OECD-member creditors. A regular meeting of the Consultative Group is planned for early November, 1985 to review the 1986-88 Public Tnvestment Program, medium-term prospects, and aid requirements. PART 11 - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA 30. Bank Group commitments to Somalia to date total US$240 million, consisting of 27 IDA credits and two IFC investments. Twelve projects are under implementation. Over thirty percent of total IDA lending has been for agriculture, twenty five percent for transport and the rest about equally divided over education, water supply, ports, energy, industry and technical assistance. IFC has so far made two investments in Somalia - a US$375,000 loan for a molasses terminal for the Juba Sugar Project and SWF 1,550,000 for a polypropylene bag project. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits and IFC investments as of September 30, 1984. 31. Physical progress in implementing development projects in Somalia has been mixed, and some have not done well. Progress of the North West Region Agricultural Development Project - Phase I has been good, and the main production targets estimated at appraisal have been met or exceeded. Projects for roads, ports, water and education have been more successful than in the agricultural sector. Many IDA-financed projects have experienced delays in execution. Staffing and management problems have impeded effective preparation and implementation of projects. Problems with projects in execution were brought to the attention of the Government authorities during the last country implementation review, which was held in Somalia in June 1984. At that time understandings were reached on the restructuring of several projects in execution.  - 9 - 32. Somalia's disbursement performance on projects assisted by the Bank Group has been satisfactory. The FY84 disbursement rate was 27.9 percent, as compared to 24.7 percent for Eastern and Southern Africa and 23.4 percent Bank/IDA-wide. IDA Strategy 33. In early January 1985, as recommended by the IMF, the Government implemented far-reaching policy reforms to liberalize the Somali economy and to improve its macroeconomic management. We propose to continue to assist the Government to devise and implement policies and programs to improve the efficiency of both the public and private sectors, to improve the macroeconomic framework for domestic and external resource mobilization and allocation, improve pricing administration and marketing systems, and to increase production and exports. We aim to support further use of existing capacity and to help lay the foundations for longer term growth. Our economic and sector work program strives to support the macroeconomic reform process, and to provide analytical inputs for the work of the Consultative Group for Somalia. 34. We are giving particular attention to aid management issues, and are now undertaking an assessment of technical assistance to Somalia jointly with the UNDP. An energy assessment is underway, and a review of population, health and nutrition issues is in preparation. A collaborative review with the Government and donors of major issues in the agricultural sector is about to begin, with support from an SPPF. We are cooperating with the government in the preparation and review of periodically updated public investment and expenditure programs, at both the global and, increasingly, at the sector level. The Advisory Committee for Juba Valley Development established by the Consultative Group at its October 1983 meeting provides an important forum for review and collaboration on issues affecting the development of Somalia's major water resource. 35. Issues in public enterprise reform are expected to become an increasingly important component of our policy dialogue. In our lending work, we plan to emphasize productive investments and rehabilitation programs. An irrigation rehabilitation project is being prepared to help increase productivity and farmer incomes in the Shebelli Valley. A project for the development of the gas resources at Afgoy is under consideration. Most projects have been cofinanced with a number of other donors, and this is expected to continue in the future.  - 10 - Relationship to Other Aid Flows 36. IDA disbursements represent about eight percent of total aid flows to Somalia. We expect that this relationship will continue at about the same level during the next several years. IDA obligations represent about 12 percent of Somalia's total outstanding and disbursed debt up to December 31, 1983. Debt service payments to IDA represent a very small proportion of Somalia's total debt service obligations. In 1984. payments to IDA were estimated at only about one percent of total debt service payments for that year. This trend is expected to continue in the future. Part III - ISSUES IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR Background 37. The agricultural sector (crops, fisheries, forestry and livestock) dominates the Somali economy. Livestock is the most important sub-sector, providing 60 percent of employment, 35 percent of GDP and, until recently, over 80 percent of exports. Crop production employs about 20 percent of the population and generates about 8 percent of GDP. Rainfed crop production is based primarily upon sorghum. Crop production under controlled irrigation is centered on bananas (the principal cash crop), sugar cane, rice and maize; production under flood irrigation comprises mainly maize and sesame. Fish and fish products account for about 2 percent of exports and of GDP. 38. During a decade of socialist development from 1970 to 1980, agricultural and livestock production stagnated and the country became heavily dependent on food aid. During the past three years, the Government of Somalia has lifted its tight state monopolies on agricultural marketing and supply. It has made significant progress toward the liberalization of the agriculture, fishing and livestock sectors, and private producers and traders are now participating in a wide range of activities. In addition, some 150,000 hectares of well suited land has been leased to individuals and groups. These actions have encouraged farmers to expand production in their traditional areas and led to significant increases in production of maize and sorghum through 1982. However, progress was interrupted in 1983 and 1984 as a result of adverse weather and the ban on Somali cattle imports by Somalia's major client and the resulting loss of foreign exchange receipts. The area planted declined between 1982 and 1984 by about 25 percent, and imported food and food aid still account for almost 40 percent of all grain consumed in Somalia. Banana production, mainly in the hands of a small number of private farmers, increased substantially between 1981 and 1984, because of higher producer prices, increased investment and improved shipping and marketing arrangements, but still remains below the reported levels of the early seventies. Sugarcane  - 11 - production also has improved recently. However, the foreign exchange shortage caused by the cattle ban and heavy debt service requirements has limited the capacity to import needed inputs. A particularly serious constraint has been the limited and often disrupted supply of diesel fuel necessary for livestock transport, irrigation pumps and tractors. A full range of equipment, inputs and services is required in order to maintain the progress of recent years. 39. Until recently, most agricultural inputs and services were provided and distributed by state agencies. With the introduction of the USAID-funded Commodity Import Program (CIP) program in 1983, private traders have become the major importers of tractors, spare parts and other equipment. On the other hand, the state tractor hire system remains in place, there is no organized private sector distribution network for most inputs, and the small quantities of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and animal drugs and vaccines are distributed largely through two public agencies. During this transitional stage it is impossible to predict precisely the total amount of inputs that could be effectively utilized in 1985. Based on past levels of imports, applications in 1983 for CIP funds, and recent technical evaluations, the appraisal mission has estimated this amount at between US$30 and 40 million. In addition to the proposed Agricultural Inputs Program (AIP), the USAID - financed CIP, the Government of Italy and the African Development Bank are expected to finance agricultural inputs in 1985. Agricultural Sector Dialogue 40. Despite the progress toward the liberalization of the agricultural sector there remain several fields in which the state's involvement is leading to inefficiencies, and in which commerce is being unnecessarily restricted. The Government's policies on the future development of agricultural input and marketing services were first discussed with the Government in February, 1985. The most important issues are described in paragraphs 42 to 45, below. These issues will be studied as part of the joint IDA-GOS agricultural sector review. The first stage of this sector review will be done by five task forces, composed of Somali officials and internationally recruited experts, which have been formed to study various aspects of the agriculture, fishing and livestock sectors. The recommendations of the sector task forces will provide the basis for addressing the changes needed in agricultural production and marketing. The Government would review, through the work of the task forces, the means to further promote private sector involvement in grain marketing and agricultural input supply. Assurances were obtained that by December 31, 1985, Government would discuss with IDA the detailed recommendations of the sector task forces and prepare a detailed plan of action for the implementation of agreed recommendations (Section 3.05, Development Credit Agreement).  - 12 - 41. In addition to the issues under discussion there are three specific measures that Government has agreed to take. These measures would support the Government's commitment to the encouragement of the private sector and are described in paragraphs 46 to 48 below. Agriculture Sector Issues Grain Marketing 42. Over the last two years the role of the public sector in grain marketing, has been greatly reduced and the parastatal Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC) is no longer the sole legal buyer of grain. The law prohibiting private trade in grains was negated by an amendment in January 1984 limiting ADC's purchase to 5 percent of total production, and subsequently by a decision of the Central Committee in February 1985 to abolish this 5 percent requirement. Henceforth producers are no longer obliged to sell any grain to ADC. The Government is now reassessing the future role of ADC. The Government intends that the public sector role in grain marketing be reduced to providing market information; importing and distributing of concessional supplies of grain, flour, and related products; and possibly stabilizing the grain market through open market operations. The Agricultural sector task foces will study the implications of the various options and how they could be implemented. 43. Another important grain marketing issue has been the price at which grain and flour imported through the National Commercial Agency (ENC) on concessional terms is to be sold. During 1980-82, concessional imports made up 27 percent of all grain consumed in Somalia. In future, coricessional imports of food, if resold within Somalia, would be sold at commercial border prices and reflect the market exchange rate. Supply of Agricultural Inputs 44. Although private traders are now permitted to compete with the state agencies for the supply and distribution of most agricultural goods and services, there remain areas of concern to IDA. In the key area of tractor hire, private services exist, but the parastatal Tractor Hiring Agency (ONAT), continues to provide a full range of services and is still the most important supplier. Veterinary drugs may only be imported by the Ministry of Livestock, although there is a thriving parallel market. Private sector equipment dealerships are slow in being established because of the private sector's uncertainity about Government's intentions and the future of the state-run operations. In the interim there would be continued public sector involvement in input distribution and machinery hire services, whilst the private sector continues to build up its activities. The Government intends that over time the role of the public  - 13 - sector in the handling of agricultural inputs would be limited toi approval/ certification of drugs, chemicals and seed; dealing with major outbreaks of pests and diseases; distribution of prescription drugs and vaccination of animals; distribution of particular inputs during a promotional phase; and, temporarily, seed production. To assure optimal encouragement of private sector investment the pricing of public services would be based on the principle of full recovery of all investment and operating costs of the organization. Cost Recovery 45. Cost recovery mechanisms for services in the agricultural sector have only been developed in isolated cases. For example, in the IDA - financed North-West Region Agricultural Development Project, only 50 percent of the construction costs of on-farm conservation works and irrigated gardens are to be recovered. In order to ensure that the recurrent cost of externally financed projects can be provided by Government after project completion, cost recovery in agricultural sector projects is an urgent concern. The sector task force on Economics of Agriculture will examine cost recovery In existing and proposed projects and propose measures to mobilize more resources through taxation and/or charges for land, water and government services. The Government and IDA would jointly review cost recovery in ongoing IDA financed projects and carry out a review to explore the opportunities to promote private sector involvement of these services. Fish Marketing 46. Private retail fish marketing is legal and is practiced in most areas of the country. The Ministry of Fisheries, however, is still operating six retail fish markets in Mogadishu, in which fresh fish is sold at one-half to one-third the prevailing open market price. Fishing cooperatives are apparently obliged to sell to these outlets at less than prevailing prices. Nonetheless, the private retail markets in Mogadishu sell about double the volume of fish sold by the Government stores. The Government has agreed that the fisheries sector task force would address the question of the future operation and structure of the Government retail fish markets in Mogadishu. The Government would by July 1, 1985 terminate the purchase and sale of fresh fish at other than market prices, and by December 31, 1985 discuss with IDA its proposals for the future of the Mogadishu retail fish market and prepare a detailed plan of action for the implementation of the agreed recommendations.  - 14 - Distribution of veterinary drugs 47. Owing to the weakness of the Government veterinary service and the shortage of foreign exchange, there is a considerable unmet demand for veterinary medicines. A number of curative preparations and drugs that are now supplied only through the Ministry of Livestock could safely be supplied to livestock owners by commercial distributors. These include antihelminthics, acaricides, eye and wound ointments, chemicals for treatment of foot rot, and antibiotics in powder. These drugs together account for at least half the value of all veterinary drugs consumed. As of June 1, 1985 Government would authorize dealers to import and sell from an approved list of items which can safely be distributed through commercial channels. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that as a condition of disbursement of funds from Part A of the Credit for veterinary drugs, the Government would provide IDA with a list of commercial traders authorized to import and sell from an approved list of drugs (Schedule 1, Development Credit Agreement). Repair of Government-owned agricultural machinery 48. There are many broken but repairable Government-owned tractors, bulldozers and other agricultural machines lying idle at Government agricultural schemes. The immediate obstacle to repairing them is shortage of foreign exchange for parts. The more fundamental issues, however, are that Government owns too much machinery, often of inappropriate types, and does not recruit and retain enough qualified technicians to maintain it. IDA and Government have identified four workshops (at Kurtun Warrey, Sablalle, Shalambod and Geenaale) that would benefit from an immediate repair program, as a first step in the long-run rationalization and improvement of the machinery maintenance system. Between April and June 1985, a consultant financed under the PPF of the AIP credit will compile a detailed inventory of the parts and manpower needed to repair all the viable machinery at these workshops. If the inventory is satisfactorily completed, the proposed AIP credit would finance the purchase of the spare parts and materials needed, along with any technical assistance required to carry out the repairs. Government has agreed to sell any machinery at these locations that is determined by an independent consultant to be superfluous or inappropriate, and dispose of any that is unrepairable. The consultant would be financed under the AIP. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that by December 31, 1985, Government would discuss with IDA its plan concerning the sale and disposal of this equipment, and would prepare a detailed plan of action for the implementation of the agreed recommendations (Section 3.06, Development Credit Agreement). In addition, the agricultural task forces would prepare recommendations on the question of machinery ownership, repair and maintenance in all public sector agencies, including the recruitment and retention of technicians.  - 15 - Part IV - THE PROGRAM 49. The program was appraised In February 1985. A supplementary project data sheet is attached as Annex III. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C., April 25 - May 6, 1985. The Somali delegation was led by H.E. the Minister of Finance, Dr. Mohamed Sheikh Osman, and included Messrs. Elabeh, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of National Planning; M. M. Nur, Director General, Ministry of Finance; and Abdullahi Sheikh Ali, Director General Planning and Administration, Ministry of Agriculture. A Credit and Project Summary is provided at the beginning of this report. Objectives of the Agricultural Inputs Program 50. At a special meeting on January 23, 1985 of the Consultative Group for Somalia, IDA announced its intention to prepare a credit of US$10 million equivalent and the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) a grant of about DM 30 million (approximately US$9.5 million) to help Somalia finance part of its 1985 agricultural inputs requirement. Program funds are expected to be fully committed by the end of 1985. The objectives of the program are: a) To maintain, and ultimately increase, production in the agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors through provision of foreign exchange to import equipment, machinery, spare parts, diesel fuel, drugs, and other inputs; b) To assist Government to rationalize the role of the public sector and to stimulate orivate sector activities in agriculture by carrying out a joint agricultural sector review and exchanging views with IDA on policy and institutional reforms; c) To stimulate the expansion of commercial dealerships and retail outlets for agricultural inputs; and d) To provide agricultural inputs to support the Government's Economic Recovery Program in 1985. Program Strategy 51. Although the Government has started the process of reducing its direct involvement in the agriculture, fishing and livestock sectors, as described in Part III, its policies in some areas remain unclear, and in other areas further liberalization measures still need to be taken. This credit would be used to support arnd accelerate the implementation of  - 16 - Government policies in this direction. IDA has linked the processing of the proposed AIP credit to the joint agricultural sector review described in paragraph 40, and in particular to the rationalization of the public sector's role, and the stimulation of the private sector in the areas of grain marketing and agricultural input distribution. The task forces have been formed and the internationally recruited technical advisor to the coordinating committee is In place. By August 1985 the preliminary reports and recommendations of the task forces would be available, so that discussions on their proposals and further actions could be held with the World Bank and other donors. This would lead to the preparation of the joint Agricultural Sector Survey Report, which would identify policy and institutional reforms and possible project support. The target date for completion is December 31, 1985. Description of Program 52. The program would provide foreign exchange to import equipment, supplies and fuel for the agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors. Within this framework, the $19.5 million equivalent would be allocated as described below. Part A - Commercial Imports. (US$12.2 million equivalent) This would consist of foreign exchange to be sold to individuals, firms or public sector agencies, at the prevailing market exchange rate for the Somali shilling, to purchase letters of credit to import the following items: i. agricultural tools, machinery, implements and related spare parts and material; ii. tractors for commercial dealers, private farmers and agricultural production enterprises including banana and sugar growers; iii. water pumps and irrigation equipment; iv. seeds and planting material; v. fishing gear and equipment, and engines and spare parts for boats; vi. veterinary drugs and preparations; vii. chemicals for water treatment and packaging for the urea fertilizer factory; and, viii. raw materials and parts for the boat factory.  - 17 - There would-be a minimum letter of credit value of US$10,000 equivalent, and a maximum disbursement limit for any one importer of US$1 million equivalent. Importers would have to deposit shillings equivalent to 50 percent of the letter of credit's value when opening it, and the remainder when the goods arrive In port. The estimated uptake of these funds for various items Is shown in Annex IV. Not later than September 30, 1985, the Government and IDA would, as part of the general review of disbursement, jointly review the uptake for each category in Part A, and revise the guidelines as necessary (Section 3.07, Development Credit Agreement). Part B - Imports for Government. (US$2.7 million equivalent) This would consist of foreign exchange provided at the official exchange rate to the Ministries of Livestock, Fisheries and Agriculture for plant protection services, spare parts to rehabilitate agricultural equipment at the four identified workshops and other urgently needed imported items. Details are given in Annex IV. Part C - Diesel Fuel. (US$4.0 million equivalent) This would be allocated for the purchase of diesel fuel by Government for sale for agricultural, fisheries and livestock purposes. About 15,000 tonnes would be purchased, which amounts to about 7 percent of Somalia's annual consumption of diesel fuel for all uses in recent years. The fuel would be procured through international competitive bidding. The applicable exchange rate will be in accordance with the terms of the prevailing agreement between the IMF and the GOS, which currently permits Government petroleum purchases to be imported for resale at the official exchange rate. The fuel will be allocated to each region in accordance with the estimated requirements of users in the region. All financial costs including those of distribution will be fully recovered, as they are il -he existing fuel distribution system. Part D - Technical Assistance. (US$0.6 million equivalent) This would finance technical assistance and operating costs of a procurement unit for the administration of parts A, B, and C of the credit; the technical assistance for preparing the spare parts list and rehabilitating agricultural equipment at the four specified workshops, and part of the cost of the agricultural sector task forces. A-total of 36 man-months of consultancy is required.  - 18 - Cost and Financing 53. The US$19.5 million total program cost would be financed 51 percent by IDA and 49 percent by the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), according to the following plan: US$ million IDA FRG Total Percentage Part A (commercial imports) 5.6 6.6 12.2 63 Part B (imports for Government) -- 2.7 2.7 14 Part C (diesel fuel) 4.0 -- 4.0 20 Part D (technical assistance) 0.4 0.2 0.6 3 10.0 9.5 19.5 100 The FRG financing for Part A will be on a parallel basis and is not tied to procurement from FRG. The local costs, consisting of office space and support staff for the procurement unit, would be borne by Government and are not included in total program costs. A PPF of US$150,000 has been approved to cover the estimated foreign costs of compiling the detailed inventory of the spare parts and manpower needed at the four machinery workshops and for the recruitment and establishment of the procurement unit in the Ministry of Finance. A further PPF of US$250,000 was approved to finance the portion of the costs of the agricultural sector task forces not covered under the recently approved SPPF of US$250,000. Organization and Implementation 54. To implement Part A of the program, a procurement/controller's unit would be established in the Ministry of Finance to publicize the program, receive and screen applications, maintain accounts and assist importers (Section 3.04, draft Development Credit Agreement). An interna:ionally recruited procurement expert and a small local staff would form the unit. The FRG would provide a second procurement expert for the unit. The unit would receive and assess applications for foreign exchange and present them weekly to thelnterministerial Committee responsible for Somalia's commodity aid programs. The committee would screen and recommend the applications to the Minister of Finance for final approval (Section 3.03 and Schedule 4, Development Credit Agreement). 55. For Part B of the program the Ministries of Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock would prepare their detailed lists of imports and submit them through the procurement unit to the co mittee and the Minister of Finance for approval. The procurement unit would carry out the procurement for Parts B and C.  - 19 - 56. The Commerical and Savings Bank of Somalia (CSBS), which is an Independent but GOS-owned entity, would be involved in implementation of Part A. Once applications are approved by the Minister of Finance, the CSBS would instruct its correspondent international bank to issue a letter of credit to the supplier. The CSBS would charge the importer its usual fee for this service. The CSBS would also accept importers' deposits of Somali shillings to the Government's account to cover the cost of the letters of credit. These arrangements will be described in a written agreement between the Ministry of Finance and the CSBS. As the CSBS has already been performing a similar role for the USAID-financed Commodity Imports Program, it is familiar with these procedures. Procurement and Disbursement 57. Procurement under Part A would be on the basis of limited international tendering by soliciting quotations from three or more suppliers (Schedule 4, Development Credit Agreement). The procurement unit would review all invitations to quote and all suppliers' responses (Schedule 4, draft Development Agreement). Quotation from more than one supplier would not be required if the importer, as the supplier's authorized distributor or dealer, is precluded from buying from another supplier or if the importer is purchasing a registered brand-name commodity from a supplier who is the exclusive distributor of the commodity in the area of the importer. Importers who have special relationships with a supplier would be required to provide documentary evidence of such relationships to the procurement office. (Schedule 3, Development Credit Agreement). Procurement under Part B (imports for Government) will be in accordance with FRG procedures. Procurement of diesel fuel under Part C will be by international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines. Consultants would be selected according to normal procedures acceptable to ID. 'Schedule 3, Developmei;c Credit Agreement). 58. Disbursement would be made for the total foreign costs of eligible imports against full documentation. To facilitate disbursement of the IDA Credit for Part A, the government would open a Special Account in US dollars in a large international commercial bank. IDA would deposit credit proceeds equivalent to about three months' estimated disbursements under Part A (about US$3 million). The CSBS would instruct this bank to issue each letter of credit, and would simultaneously inform IDA, which would advise the Government of any objection. The CSBS and the international commercial bank would submit a detailed statement of the transactions on the account to Government. The procurement unit would maintain relevant records in such form and detail as shall be required by IDA to determine  - 20 - the eligibility of goods and services financed under the Credit, and they would submit a statement of these transactions to IDA on a monthly basis (Section 4.01(b), Development Credit Agreement). FDr Part D, IDA would disburse against 100 percent of the total costs of the internationally recruited procurement expert, preparation of the spare parts list and the agricultural sector task force expenditures. The FRG would disburse against 100 percent of the total costs of internationally recruited mechanics to carry out the rehabilitation of the machinery at the four identified workshops. Accounts, Audit and Evaluation 59. Overall program accounts would be maintained by the procurement unit established for this program in the Ministry of Finance. They would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to the Association and be available within four months (Section 4.01 (b), Development Credit Agreement). The Ministry of Planning would monitor the use and economic effect of the credit proceeds. In addition, not later than six months after completion of the proposed program, the Government would prepare and furnish to IDA a complete report on the costs and benefits resulting from the proposed credit. Environmental Impact 60. Pesticides and fertilizers to be financed under the credit would be items already in use in Somalia and approved by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Pesticide application is mainly carried out by the Plant Protection Department of the Ministry of Agriculture. Any pesticides purchased under the program would be financed by the FRG under Part B; discussions are under way with FRC on how the Bank's guidelines on the selection and use of pesticides will be applied. Fertilizers are used on only a small proportion of Somalia's agricultural area and the quantities to be financed by the credit would not have a significant environmental impact. The list of veterinary drugs to be procured under Part A for commercial distribution will exclude any, such as antibiotics, against which resistance can develop as a result of uncontrolled use. Benefits and Risks 61. The program's main benefit would be the maintenance of agricultural, livestock and fishery production made possible by the provision of the required inputs. Owing to the shortage of foreign exchange in recent years, production losses have occurred as a result of the non-availability of key inputs such as fertilizer, plant protection materials, spare parts and fuel for irrigation pumps and tractor-driven implements. The renewed availability of the basic inputs would act as an incentive to agricultural producers. The proposed credit also would also  - 21 - support and extend the Government's program of reducing and rationalizing its own role in these sectors. It would help motivate private enterprise to expand its role in specific activities, such as veterinary drugs distribution and tractor hire services. The credit would assist Government in fulfilling its obligations in certain agreed areas of Government involvement, such as production of animal vaccines and plant protection services. In conjunction with the Economic Recovery Program and possible further support from the international donor community, the proposed credit would support the process of agricultural policy and institutional reform and create the necessary environment for the required investments to achieve longer term growth of the economy in agriculture, fisheries and livestock. 62. There is some risk that not all the funds provided under Part A would be readily disbursed, because the inputs would be imported at the free market exchange rate. However, demand is expected to be sufficient to absorb the funds provided under the AIP. The Joint Government/IDA mid-term review would pay particular attention to the status of disbursements. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 63. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the government of Somalia and the Association, and the Recommendations of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors seperately. 64. Special Conditions of the Project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 65. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A. W. Clausen President Attachments May 28, 1985 Washington, D.C.  Annex I - 22 f --~~~~~~~~~~~c PA of 6 SONALIA - SOCIAL INDICATOR8 DArA SLmuT RegALIA REFCRENCE CGOUPS (MCI: .'ED AVE. S s Mosr (MOST ACCENT EST=MATE) lb RECENT LOW INCOME AFRICA MIDDLE LirsW 1;t.otk 1,70.rb csrmnzdb soUT or SaMAA AF%ICA S. w SAMARA am (TCIDSm Sq. M_ TOTAL 637.7 137.7 637.1 AGRICULTURAL IS.1t 296.7 299.7 crp ma cAPITA WUSS) 110. 120.0 290.0 2494 1112.9 RESCT CONSUWTIEU PE CAPITA IMZLOGARIS OF OIL EQUIVALENT) LL-0 25.0 90s0 12.6 529.0 M,U,;Ttm AS1 WCTA STATXSnCS rapuLATIONID-YtAa (THOUSANDS) 2450-0 3238.0 4513.0 URBAN POFUtArION (Z OP TOTAL) 7-3 23.1 31.7 L9.2 29.7 POPULATIOK PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (HILL) 6.9 sTATIONART POPULATION CHILL) 22.8 POrULATimI CENTM i.e POPULATION DENSITY PER sq. ". 3.86 3.1 49 12.1 11.6 PER SQ. la. AM I LAND 8.2 10.8 IR.7 119.2 Il1.1 POPULATION ACE STRUCTURE (I) 0O14 YRS 43.8 L6.5 43.1 41.6 45.4 15-64 nES 53.6 51.6 13.1 51.3 51.7 b5 AND ABOVE 2.7 1.9 2.? 2.9 Z.9 POPULATION GEWIN RATE (t) rOTLn 1.8. 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 URBAN 4.8 5.7 5.4 6.2 1.z CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PEE TrOUS) 48.2 46.2 48.3 48.6 47.0 CRUDE DEATN URTE (PER TROUS) 2d.9 Z6. Z5.1. 11.1 5.2 cRoss nPRDDaICTION RATE 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 FAILT PLFANING CCEPTOR. ANUAL (TSOUS) .. .. USERS (Z Of KARRIED WStEN). FOOD AIID LrnomR INDEX 01 FOD PROD. PER CAPITA (1969-71-LDD) 97.0 100.0 60.0 85.8 91.6 PER CArtTA SUPPLY OF CALoMS (E OP REQUIREMTS) 89.0 82.0 100.0 86.4 98.2 PRTEIZS (CGRM PER DAT) 76.0 68.0 7a.0 49.9 56.7 oF utICa ANIMAL AND PULSE *7.0 43.0 a 3.0 /c 11.3 17.0 CHILD (ACES 1-4) DEATN RATE 6t1. 33.0 47.0 23.8 18.7 MA%LTll LIFT EXPECT. AT BLRTH (TEARS) 34.0 37.2 38.8 44.4 51.7 INFANT HORT. RATE (PER TOlS) 23.0 200.0 184.0 117.3 102.7 ACCESS TO SAM UATER (lOPP) TOTAL 13.0 23.0 Id 21.8 31.6 LA .. 17.0 58.0 id 61.1 34.L RUlAL .. 14.0 20.0 ad 14.2 27.3 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (r or POPULATION) TOTAL 47.0 la 32.0 URlBAsN 77.0 a. 69.2 RURAL 35.0 r. 24.8 POPULATION PER PNHSICIAN 36570.0 2&3a0.0 14290.0 27a77.8 11948.3 POP. PER NURSING PERSOIN 810.0 4280.0 2330.0 3396.2 2248.9 POP. PER HOSPITAL BED .OTAL 690.0 660.D 660.0 Ic L069.0 986.9 u RA a40.0 280.0 - 395.2 368.7 RURAL 5640.0 7390.0 3094.0 '012.1 AWMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL 8E .. .. . AVERACE SIZE aF HOUSENOLD TOTAL URIAIIU RURAL '- 5.1 Ic vERACE NO. OF PERSON31ROO0 TOt AL .. .. . .. LESAN .. .. . .. RURAL .. -..-s ACCESS TO ELECT. Ct OF ONELLINS)S TOTAL URBA .. .. . .. RURAL .. ..  - 23 - Annex I PAcE 3 of 6 O R t"IC iNhipaini~~~lUE KCIzN? ITA!) L1k CkICT LOU INC AFRICA MIDDLE I4UU 19neA linall u ITDAT!L SOUTH Of SAHARA AFRtCA 1. Of ALAMi EDOCATICE ADJU2TSO cNROLLKINT RATIO$ PIL*TI tOTAL *.0 11.0 30.0 69.2 91.0 KlUL 13.0 17.0 31.0 71.1 god ?UEALI 5.0 5.0 21.0 37.6 7.6 agCOUIIY TOTAL 1.0 3.0 11.0 13.1 17.4 HALZ 2.0 1.0 16.0 17.6 23.7 TUEL" .. 2.0 6.0 8.3 14.8 VOCATIOIL (z 0f sCCONDaT) 26.4 3.1 17.6 7.2 3.3 PU1IL-TIAhR UATWO PnINAI 21.0 33.0 33.0 46.1 31.6 sCCOKmAy 20.0 24.0 21.0 25.9 24.3 AI.T LITEACY RATI (C) 1.5 if 3.0 60.0 1 .2!. 35.6 PASSNGER CARS/TKOUSAND POP 1.1 2.1 .. 0.8 20.7 RADIO RCICZVESITIIOUSAISO POP 9.6 13.& 20.4 41.9 100.8 TV ICIZVIRS/TBoUSM IPOP *- .. *- 2.0 U.5 NWSPAPER (-DAILY GE LIUTCRUS) CIO:LATION PEr THOUSAND POPUJATION 0.8 1.5 . 5.4 17.2 CINUNA ANIUAL ATTEnDANCEICAPITA 0.S 1.1 *- 1.4 0.1 LAO F TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUS) 1017.0 1257.0 1731.0 PINLLC (PERCINT) 30.1 29.7 27.7 3l.3 33.6 ACRICULTUUE (PERCENT) 88.0 85.0 82.0 77.4 37.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) '.0 6.0 8.0 9.6 17.4 PAtrICIP&TtON RATZ (PCRCENT) TOTAL 41.5 38.8 38.3 41.0 36.3 MALI 58.7 55.2 54.9 52.1 41.e FINALE 24.7 22.8 21.4 30.2 25.1 CCONOMQC DEPENDENC RPATIO 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.; CIs DSUuLN== PCRCENT OF PRtVATE INCOME REZCEID r HICHCST 5X0o HOUSEHOLDS HICNEST 201 or HOUS5HOLDS LOWEST 20= OF HOUSZHOLDS ,, LOST 402 OF HOUSEHOLDS POrnE TARCT Gom ESrMATED ABSOLUTE POVEArY L:CCKE LEVEL (U5t PER CAPITA) UR . 150.0 /J 1681.3 525.3 RURAL 110.0 /j 90.8 249.0 ESTIArTED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (1U5t PER CAPITA) t1114 65.0 1 107.7 477.4 RURAL 50.0 55.0 L86.0 ESTIUATED POP. BELOW ASOLUTE POVERTY XHCCI LEVEL (I) URBAN ,, ,, 40.0 /L 34.7 RURAL 70.0 /Ig 55.4 NOT AVAILAdLE NOT A!PLSCABLE 11 o r c s /a The group average for each indicator arm populatom-welghted aritImtlc _an. Coverage of countries omong the lndicators depends on ava1labillty of data and Is not uniform. /b Uole - ocherwlse noted. -Data for 1960 rotor to any year becumen 1959 and 1961; -Data for 1970 bctwn 1969 wd 1971; and daca for 'most atoet Zstiet- between 1980 and 1982. /c 1977; /d 1976; /a 1975; /f 1962; /I 1978; lb Inecrae due to literacy campaign of 1974. JUNE, 1984  - ..iSp. .Ao it an 30i g * '0II Sllto oja p 00 u.P.- p.. lo,-b4bJ.-.- iSt.3.. _5d -.J.I A .l .... ltSl3S I *. a.. .o.~ o.oi.tp *P-t. IS 3o0 m. lpp0015 3 DlIltt - I0-101303 0333 1* 3505olin *tt0lA loS 30tc W 0fltq at-~ -. aO.-* i.I..sS P012.54 -n ai-gS*) pt.lO 3iq 10l0t3 - *All IijS n .au Am d01 - S i-fl0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ mu.*.hat Pt ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ..P ft - Mt'06 :31 3000 ;3 3 -01 *obbItv 351A * S -. *I3.41 00 M p- I~W - I-PIS R; J= --- ~ ~ ~ SSPtt!P'COt0tt131*0anl3003- l I *. - (3*0.5) 3.01 e.t AA555 *3051wyloin-S5ff5s5 P=IIISA tijI,T. p *W -.I" A n.- Si AH1 5 0 II3 I51 0.Slt(I oPl 3-S -.= d. r-9--m -5 -Mi ~ lOtP0Jt -oa - Il... in.n33 - .0*50.. 015)ISo., a-St53ASSA IIt.SO .lttl"**CO ..... I - J_'-wn III-. lS FliIt .3 poo .13015 ~ -w tqI.Pa 3 .An. 15l.0 30 . . ii t t 5035535--_10)i*tl * ul '~lS34*.. 33 Sll Stii.A.. At010005 tO=Ot.0 e . 0 I 3.1 ,3.5003 llt O* PF- 0S pIo , .. A.J0 iIlVA3.54* li3 itm 5110 P.t 't1 035p .0. lid oabod bIlmb I?. 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JWiSf0P3i . 1liOfl3.tl"I.Sl 51 asIlUopa , I a5 .t.ts3t.i.ai.. 05patAl 'I-(,A I ..0. 5i or033 apSl5l- .01 130 0 s.~S0SlP5t333313000 St It.ft.l1AAt '.~ .~ tea * and.. 5530' P -tOO i*4tI*0t. 3t.p bqb 5-o o IIt 8111-1045t 1AtP 30 s..l o3310i.t 130.33 10535 3N4 PliSPt01 Il 33 ttAl 10tPOSASA Si ~~~~~t0.is4 psiap -ta1-ti-ow..A - (StPO,JI- 1-P . q-i5 p 2A t" J.ISS JISslA t*M1i0to,oa ".I"i. ti33~*ss. .4 t IUtb '"46I .to.A tt 0,10. SIt 5550 - iSltIlitSt 95013113 --I-. StOtltJWiS.13.jt.lSt.lIASJlOiS S3 p J3 _OsSPlsl 1-Ii tAflj 01 obb abS o j*to 35,3.- 03* 01300214 -P-- 313t 3.s0I.35t.1l '0 ~ i*lO-S. ;..tsPais 1 t .fos 1a.Ia3