Rwanda - Education sector memorandum

D_~of The World Bank FOR oFMcuL USE ONLY Repwt No. 5276-RW REPUBLIC OF RWANDA EDUCATION SECTOR MEMORANDUM June 28, 1985 Education and Manpower Development Division Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office r t- s doc_o hu ife _d =a be uny iepkf Od m pncemm of durad oa lls omf Ymmdw e be dbd wnt Wed Bk _wbmfo  FOR OMCAuL USE ONLY (i) REPUBLIC OF RWANDA EDUCATION SECTOR M4MORANDUM Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA GLOSSARY SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS I. INTRODUCTION ................................... 1 Knowledge of the Education Sector . ............................ 1 Socio-economic Background ................................... 1 Recent Economic Developments and Future Prospects . . 2 Implications for Human Resource Development . . 3 Impact of Demographic Expansion upon the Education System 4 II. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTE. 5 Background and Educational Reforms . . 5 Recent ETS Developmants .. 6 Financial Aspects .. External Aid .. 9 Reform Evaluation and Development Prospects . . 9 IT. TECHNICAL EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING .13 Background. 13 Development of Technical Education and Vocational Training .... 14 Manpower Requirements ..16 Problems and Possible Remedies . .17 IV. ADMINISTRATION OF THE ETS AND INSTITUTION BUILDING .17 Overall Administration ..17 Objectives and Planning ....................................._.18 Implementation ................. ................... 18 Possible Remedies .................................... 19 V. MAJOR ISSUES AND POSSIBLE REMEDIES ............. ............... 20 Summary of Issues .................................... 20 Issues' Details .................................... 20 VI. AREAS FOR WORLD BANK GROUP INVOLVEMENT .25 Previous WBG Experience ..25 Sector Support Strategy ..25 Possible Elements for WBG Support . .26 Sector Work Priorities ..27 | This doaunent has a resticted ditribudon and my be ued by recipiens only in the performance or teir offici duties. Its conteuts ay not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  (ii) ANNZEXES Annex 1- Charts and Tables Chart 1 - Structure of MINEPRISEC System 1984 Chart 2 - Structure of MINESUPRES System 1984 Chart 3 - MINEPRISEC Organization Chart 1984 Chart 4 - HINESUPRES Organization Chart 1984 Chart 5 - Relationship Among Education, Training and Work Table 1 - Enrollment Growth in Formal Education 1978-83 Table 2 - (a) Government Expenditure on Education 1978-83 (b) MINEPRISEC Recurrent Expenditures by Level and Type 1981 and 1983 (c) MINESUPRES Recurrent Budget 1981-83 (d) NUR Recurrent Unit Cost 1981-83 Table 3 - (a) Expenditures, Teachers and Enrollments for Primary Education, Grades 1-8 Struture 1986, 1995 (b) Expenditures, Teachers and Enrollments for Primary Education, Grades 1-7 Structure 1986, 1995 Table 4 - Youth Training Centers of the Ministry of Youth and the Cooperative Movement 1983 Table 5 - Technical/Vocational Training Output and Labor Needs 1990 Annex 2 - Select Bibliography This Education Sector Memorandum was prepared by Mr. J. McCabe, Senior Education Planner, ESPED. following a March 1984 mission to Rwanda in which he was accompanied by Mr. H. Baritsch, Technical/Vocational Education Consultant.  (iii) RWANDA EDUCATION SECTOR MEKORANDMU BASIC DATA 1/ POPULATION Area 26,340 Km 2 Population: total (1983) 5.5 million growth rate p.a. 3.6% density/km 2 arable land 390 GNP per capita (1982) US$260 Literacy rate (Gov.t estm. 1982) 37% Rural population 95Z EDUCATION Establishments Enrollzents Z Girls Primary (G 1-8) 1,572 747,172 48 Post-primary (G 9-11) 304 16,784 62 Secondary (G 9-14): 73 General 5,127 21 Technical 3,741 39 Teacher Training 5,362 49 University: BRanda 2 1,317 15 Abroad 534 Gross Student/Teacher % Teachers Enrollment Ratio Ratio Qualified Primary 66 55 2/ 57 Post-primary ) 11 81 Secondary 7 ) 14 69 University 0.4 7 23 1/ 1983 unless otherwise stated. 2/ Including double shift G 1-3; equals about 40.  (iv) EXPENDITURES Primary and Secondary Education Government Recurrent Expenditures (1983 estm.) FRW 3,981.3 million FRW 530.6 million As Percentage of Recurrent Budget 24.5 Government Capital Expenditure on Educatiou 1983 (estm.) FRW 132.2 million As percentage of Capital Budget 3.6 Total Expenditure on Education FRW 4,113.5 million As Percentage of GNP 2.7 Currency Equivalents US$1 FRW 97.00 FRWI - USS 0.01 Fiscal Year January 1 to December 31  (v) GLOSSARY OF ABBREVAITIONS ADB African Development Bank BPES Bureau Pedagogique de l'Enseignement Secondaire (Secondary Curriculum Development Unit) CEPET Centre de Formation et de Perfectionnement Methodologique pour Professeurs de 1'Enseignement Technique (Technical Teacher Training) CERAI Centre d'Enseignement Rural et Integre (Post-primary schools) CERAR Centres Ruraux et Artisanaux du Rwanda (pre-reform post-primary centers) ENTS Ecole Normale Superieure de l'Enseignement Technique (Higher Technical Teacher Training) ETO Ecole Technique Officielle ETS Education and Training System GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product INADES Correspondence School: INADES - Formation - Rwanda MINEPRISEC Ministry of Primary aad Secondary Education MINESUPRES Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research MINIFOPE Ministry of Public Service and Professional Training MINIPLAN Ministry of Planning HINISANTE Ministry of Health NGO Non-government Organization .NUR National University of Rwanda SDP Second Plan 1977-81 TDP Third Plan 1982-86 UPE Universal Primary Education WBG World Bank Group YTC Youth Training Center  (vi) SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Background (i) This Education Sector Memorandum (ESM) constitutes an analytical background to preparation of a third education project at a time when implementation of the Third Development Plan 1982-86 is at the midway stage and the major educational reform introduced in 1979 is vell underway. It will serve as a basis for dialogue among the Government, the World Bank Group and other aid agencies on issues, proposed actions for rational development and assistance priorities for the country's education and training system (ETS). (ii) Forecasts of much more difficult economic circumstances for the foreseeable future coupled with doubling of population by the year 2000 (with vastly increased numbers demanding education, training and jobs) must lead to severe financial constraints requiring the most cost-effective use of resources in the ETS. Overall, the sector must assist the Government to the extent possible, in achieving the priority goals of increasing agricultural productivity to ensure food supply, containing demographic growth and developing human resources for economic and social development at the maximum pace permitted by physical and financial constraints. Main Problems (iii) The Government must face the following problems, issues and constraints as soon *as possible, by strategic planning and implementing action programs designed to optimize use of resources: (a) alignment of policy objectives and targets to financial capacity; (b) rigorous application of cost control; (c) gearing training programs to the needs for priority economic and social development and job opportunities; (d) improvement of internal efficiency, quality and equity as far as financially feasible; (e) modernization of administrative skills and office technology; and (f) coordination of programs to improve literacy. (iv) In particular, the problem must be faced of controlling the detrimental effect on educational development of a likely decline in yearly growth of total government recurrent expenditures. If this growth declines from over ten to about five percent in real terms, as seems likely, and the proportion of the budget for education remains about 23 percent, possibilities for enrollment expansion would be severely curtailed. Planned primary school enrollment increase of eight percent yearly could well be halved.  (vii) {v) Other main problems meationed in (iii) relate especially to: (a) Policy Objectives. Overly ambitious educational targets are set, often based on other than economic and pedagogical realities. Financial and pedagogical implications of various options are not sufficiently defined for decision-makers, who are not sufficiently conscious of the need for the most cost-effective approaches. (b) Cost Control. By African standards, unit recurrent costs are especially high in secondary and higher education due mainly to low student/teacher ratios, high boarding and administration costs and diseconomies of scale. There is heavy dependence on external aid. (c) Relevance and Job Opportunities. Technical/vocational training needs and teacher requirements are inadequately defined. The overall system requires development to meet severe shortages of certain categories of trained middle- and higher technicians and engineers. There is also evidence of mismatching between training and job opportunities. (d) Internal Efficiency, Quality, Equity. Repetition and attrition rates are too high at 14 and 12 percent respectively, in primary schools, where quality is also seriously deteriorating. A main cause of these problems is the decrease in proportion of qualified teachers in grades 1-6 to one-third. A high attrition rate of 12 percent in first-year secondary education is largely due to admissions too much determined on regional and ethnic origin considerations. Repetition/attrition rates are also extremely high in the National University of Rwanda (averaging over 40 percent), where there are also serious teaching/learning inefficiencies. (e) Modernization of Administration and Office Technology. There are weaklesses in educational management at central, regional and institutional levels, causing delays and inefficiencies. Outmoded manual operations are still pursued with the same results, especially in the accounting, information, inventory and examination systems. (f) Coordination of Literacy Programs. A plethora of agencies work towards reducing the 63 percent illiteracy rate providing a wide range of programs. Lack of a clearcut strategy and of coordination of efforts hamper progress. Recommendations (vi) The following are recommendations for priority policies and action programs to be developed and implemented by the Government and supported by the World Bank Group and other aid agencies: Government: (a) Policy Objectives - Phase in a grade 1-7 primary school structure having double-shift only in grade one, to replace the present grade 1-8 structure having double-shift in grade 1-3, which is more costly and pedagogically weaker.  (viii) - Plan and implement rational development of higher education based on study of required outputs of trained personnel and the existing teaching/learning situation, leading to proposals for improvements. - Prepare and translate a "rolling" three-year public investment program for the education sector into detailed, feasible, priority, multi-year action programs with analysis relating their implementation to recurrent budget constraints and actual human and physical resources capacities. - Quantify and account separately all external aid and prepare/implement a plan for its proper coordination, ensuring information exchange among donors on appropriateness and complementarity of support to ensure the most efficient use of funds. - Emphasize a political commitment to the most rational and cost-effective approaches to educational development and maximum cooperation among supplier and user ministries on education and training aspects. (b) Cost Control - Take actions to reduce high unit recurrent costs, including increasing student/teacher ratios significantly from 11 and 14 in CERAI (post-primary) and secondary schools respectively, using the classroom rotation system, coeducation, increasing school size and increasing the proportion of day students in secondary schools. - Take actions to reduce high unit recurrent costs in higher education, through, inter alia, increasing the present student/teacher ratio of 7, and curtailing administration costs. - Introduce cost-sharing schemes at all levels of education but especially for boarding students in secondary and higher education. - Promote and facilitate participation of non-government organizations in financing of education, especially secondary education. (c) Relevance and Job Opportunities - Plan and implement a comprehensive system of technical/vocational education (including an appropriate teacher training system) geared to manpower needs and job opportunities, and based upon a study of these needs, existing training facilities and required improvements. - Broaden the range of trades training in technical schools and make early provision for training of higher technicians. - Gear up the administrative capacity of the Ministry of Public Services and Professional Training to plan and implement required training and re-training especially in the public service.  (ix) (d) Internal Efficiency, Quality, Equity - Emphasize turnaround of deteriorating repetition/attrition rates and quality in primary education, especially through an increased proportion of qualified teachers in earlier grades, reinforced inspection system, and better training in educational management. - Take actions to reduce the extremely high repetition/attrition rate of over 40 percent in the National University of Rwanda, including improving the selection/orientation process and making curricula more relevant to Rwandese circumstances. - Implement admissions to secondary and higher education based to a larger extent on merit. (e) Modernization of Administration and Office Technology - Decentralize authority for handling routine administrative matters in MINEPRISEC to enable higher management personnel to devote more time to decision-making on educational objectives and policy matters. - Develop a feasible training scheme in educational planning, administration and pedagogy to reduce dependence on expatriates and improve institutional management. - Modernize central office technology through gradual introduction of appropriate computerization, especially of the financial accounting, examination, information and inventories systems. (f) Coordination of Literacy Programs - Evaluate the present multi-faceted approach to literacy training and prepare a cost-effective strategy for its development, including especially coordination of efforts. World Bank Group (WBG): - Formally present this memorandum to the Government and external aid agencies in Rwanda and use it as a basis for continuous dialogue on implementing the above recommendations. - Support more effective coordination of external aid and assistance from non-government organizations for educational development, to ensure increased complementarity and more effective use of funds, through organized meetings of the concerned authorities, information exchange and development of a coordinated strategy.  (x) Advise and assist the Government in preparing prerequisite education sector analysis, and possible project items justifiable on economic, financial, administrative and pedagogical grounds for financing under the WBG lending program. External Aid Agencies: - Comment on this memorandum and conduct dialogue with the WBG on its recommendations with a view to reaching consensus on priority support required for appropriate development of the Rwandese ETS, better coordination of external aid efforts and complementarity of assistance.  I. INTRODUCTION Knowledge of the Education Sector 1.01 The previous Rwanda Education Sector Hemorandum, Report No. 3559-RW of July 15, 1981, was prepared at the conclusion of the Government's Second Development Plan 1977-1981 (SDP). Relevant information on the sector subsequently collected for the Staff Appraisal Report for a Second Education Project (Report No. 3770-RW of May 24, 1982) 1/ was supplemented with the issue of the Third Development Plan 1982-1986 (TDP) and IBRD Agricultural Strategy and Population, Health and Nutrition Reviews in 1983 2/. The Country Economic Memorandum of May 1983 contains an evaluation of prospects for the country's economic and social development. 3/ With the publication of fairly good annual educational statistics by the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MINEPRISEC) and the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Rn!narch (IINESUPRES), our general information on educational development is reasonably good. 4/ However, more detailed analyses of the development needs of higher education, specialized training and the relation between outputs of the education system and employment opportunities are necessary. Socio-economic Background 1.02 Rwanda's population of over 5.5 million (390 persons per square kilometer of arable land) is increasing at 3.6 percent yearly and expected to almost double by the year 2000. Located among volcanic hills south of the equator in Eastern Central Africa, it is a landlocked country some 1,700 Km. by road to Mombasa, and having a per capita income of USS260 (1982), it is among the world's poorest countries. About 95 percent of the population is rural and engaged mainly in subsistence agriculture on family farms of average size one hectare. Agriculture plays a predominant role in the economy, contributing over 4b percent of GDP (of which 80 percent from subsistence crops) and generating about 75 percent of export earnings (of which 64 percent from coffee). However, the contributions of industry and services over the past 20 years have nearly trebled to 20 percent and 33 percent, respectively. Nevertheless, the precarious balance between domestic food supply and the rapidly growing population must become more problematic, not only because of limitation of land, but also due to 1/ Including ILO. Pour une priorite au developpement de l'emploi dans le cadre du IIIAme plan quinquennal du Rwanda 1982-1987. 1981 mimeo. 2/ (a) MINIPLAN. IIIeme Plan de developpement economique, social et culturel 1982-1986, 1982; (b) IBRD. Rwanda Agricultural Strategy Review, July 1983 (Report No. 4635-KW - Yellow Cover); and (c) IBRD. Rwanda Population, Health and Nutrition Sector Review, November 1983 (White Cover). 3/ IBRD. Rwanda Economic Memorandum; Recent Economic and Sector Developments and Current Policy Issues, May 20, 1983 (Report No. 4059-RW). 4/ A select bibliography is given in Annex 2.  -2- deforestation caused by use of firewood equivalent to 90 percent of total energy consumed. This problem is compounded by serious unemployment/under- employment, high illiteracy rate of 63 percent, malnutrition and lack of natural resources. Recent Economic Developments and Future Prospects 1.03 Rwanda, having achieved a yearly GDP growth rate of 5 percent during the latter part of the seventies, fared much better than other low-income African countries. While this achievement is in part attributable to favorable external factors (good weather, favorable terms of trade and capital inflows), prudent fiscal, balance of payments and debt management policies also played an important role. In this way, Rwanda succeeded in increasing savings rates, containing inflation, increasing foreign exchange reserves, raising its share of exports in GDP, increasing food production at a faster rate than population growth and containing its debt burden. However, the advent of international recession in 1981/82 had adverse budgetary and balance of payments effects not countered by a sufficiently rapid response, especially on financial and fiscal aspects, including exchange rate adjustments. 1.04 The Government's statement of objectives in the TDP reinforces those of the SDP: (a) self-sufficiency in food production through agricultural intensification and diversification; (b) better utilization of human resources through increased employment and more relevant education/training; (c) improved living standards through better health care, housing, and cultural life; and (d) betterment of external status through improved trade balance. A yearly economic growth rate of 4.8 percent is forecast to achieve these objectives using a strategy of maximization of national resources, with improved equity and coordination of external aid. However, the TDP was not translated into action programs or instruments for economic management and it did not define multi-year investment programs, input/output targets or an implementation schedule. The plan also lacks a monitoring mechanism relating available resources to investment, a link between planning and budgeting, guidelines for coordinating foreign aid and proposals to provide required managers. 1.05 Lack of foreign exchange earning capacity and domestic resource mobilization increasingly constitute the most serious constraints to development. With forecasts showing terms of trade deteriorating, modest export growth and an increase in debt service payments, the level of imports are destined to decrease and dependence on external aid to increase. As the Government depends upon foreign trade taxation for half its revenues, it may be forced to seriously curtail current expenditures. While an adjustment burden would fall most heavily on the modern sector, the traditional sector may also suffer as further agricultural growth must come mainly from itensification, land fragmentation is undermining subsistence agriculture and production incentives for industrial crops are diminishing. It is now clear that policies pursued with reasonable success in the late seventies will not be adequate to meet the new challenges of the remainder of the eighties. Government action will be required on:  -3- (a) definition of priorities among and within sectors; and (b) concentration of financial and managerial resources thereon. Three major priority tasks comprise increasing agricultural productivity, containing population growth and developing human resources at the maximum pace permitted by physical and financial constraints. Implications for Human Resource Development 1.06 Because of the sombre evaluation described above, it is imperative that scarce financial resources are concentrated upon the priority actions for economic and social development. In these circumstances, expenditures on the social sectors, especially education and training, are in danger of being curtailed because their contribution to development is not always immediate. It must be emphasized however, that a reasonable level of investment in education must be maintained for at least three main reasons. Firstly, the TDP and many recent development reports identify shortages of trained personnel in most sectors of the economy as constituting serious hindrances to economic and social development. The specialized training requirements concerned should be evaluated and action programs defined to meet them as soon as possible 5/. Secondly, studies have shown that increasing general participation in education (especially for women) represents the most effective action towards containing rapid population growth. Thirdly, the social demand for and raised expectations .on educational opportunities in Rwanda are such that failure to maintain a steady growth of the system could have serious social and political consequences. 1.07 Statistics on the labor force and employment are neither regularly collected nor reliable. Projections made in the TDP based oa the dynamics of population growth show a net addition yearly of 44,000 households. Given the working population breakdown of agriculture 93 percent and the modern sector 7 percent, TDP proposals are made to meet this increase through the creation of 27,000 additional jobs in agriculture and 17,000 in the non-agricultural sector (of which 13,000 in the modern sector and 4,000 self-employed). However, in absolate terms, population growth implies an addition of 850,000 working-age population during 1980-90, and thus, provision should be made for work force addition of about 80,000 people yearly, despite existing unemployment of 20 percent and underemployment of about 30 percent in agriculture. With a total of only 25,000 jobs created during the ScP, and as creating eaca additional industrial job costs about US$50,000, employment prospects are not good. With 63 percent of the active population illiterate, only 8 percent having education beyond primary level and emigration not offering a viable solution, the problem is rendered more difficult. In effect, the agriculture sector must somehow absorb the vast majority of additional 5/ The IBRD sector work program includes a specialized training study for FY85/86.  workers, highlighting again the need for intensification/diversification of that sector and urgent efforts on population containment. Only limited human resource planning is undertaken in ministries. The TDP indicates yearly shortages of 160 professionals and higher technicians (400 required as against 240 output) and over 2,000 middle-level technicians and skilled workers (3,400 required as against 1,400 output). However, much more detailed analysis is necessary to define skill training needs 6/. It is expected that the proposed study of specialized training mentioned earlier may define programs for priority action in this regard. Impact of Demographic Expansion upon the Education System 1.08 Rwanda's long standing objective of achieving universal primary education (UPE) at the earliest possible date, is reasonable, not only because of its influence ou population control as mentioned earlier, but also as an important means of reducing adult illiteracy of 63 percent, which impedes economic and social development. However, with the rapid population growth of 3.6 percent yearly causing an increase of 500,000 from 1980 to 1990 in the primary school-age (7-14) group, UPE can hardly be achieved before 2000 and it may take 50 years to reach an adult literacy rate eq%dvalent to that achieved in lower middle income countries. Four main economic and demographic factors could hasten achievement of UPE 7/: (a) increased CNP/capita growth rate; (b) increased percentage GNP devoted to education; (c) reduction in unit recurrent costs of primary education; and (d) reduced percentage of population in the schooling age-group. Based upon earlier discussion of economic development prospects and the large proportion of Government expenditures already devoted to education (para. 2.12), there is little hope in the short or medium terms of improvements from factors (a) and (b). In addition, as teacher salaries and non-teacher costs in primary education are rather low, little reduction is achievable in recurrent unit costs. 8/ However, concerning the fourth factor, while the rate of population growth can hardly be reduced in the short-term, an important reduction in the proportion of the population in the schooling age-group could be achieved through redressing a structural change introduced in a 1979 reform of the education system. 1.09 The most controversial element of this structural reform - pro- longatioa of primary schooling from 6 to 8 years - not only postpones achievement of UPE but also has cost increase implications (more teachers, buildings and equipment required) and pedagogical shortcomings. With severe financial constraints placing limitations on the number of teachers who can be employed and a continuing rapid growth in population, the Government should give priority attention to reconsideration of the impact of this structural reform. This matter is discussed in greater detail in paras. 2.14 - 2.19. 6/ See para. 3.10 and Annex 1, Table 5 for further discussion on labor force aeeds in the industrial sector. 7/ IBRD. Universal Primary Education: an African Dilemna, 1984 (draft) 8/ aIRD. Controlling the Costs of Primary and Secondary Education, August 1984 (Report No. 4907-EAF).  -5- II. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Background and Educational Reforms 2.01 At independence in 1962, the Rwandese education and training system (ETS) was embryonic and ill-adapted to the needs of the asses. A proposed reform in 1974 was not implemented but a major reform incorporated in the SDP 1977-1981 had three basic objectives: (a) curricula reform emphasizing rural/agricultural needs; (b) diversification from academic secondary education; and (c) orientation of higher education towards developmental priorities, including agriculture. 2.02 The reform included a major structural change in the ETS (Annex 1, C-1) with implications as follows: (a) prolongation of primary education from 6 to 8 years for the 7-14 years' age group with introduction of practical subjects in grades 7 and 8 in workshop extensions to schools and target of universal primary education by 1986; (b) orientation of 90 percent primary school leavers to CERAT (Centres d'enseignement rural et artisanal integre) for elementary vocational training in grades 9-11; (c) orientation of 10 percent primary school leavers to the reformed secondary school system. Other actions planned included : discontinuance of the secondary 3-years -tronc commun', retraining required primary teachers in practical subjects, increased proportion of day-students, increased coeducation, increased secondary school size to minimum 240 enrollment, termination of double shift and automatic promotion. 2.03 While the para 2.01 objectives are sound, proposals to achieve them were controversial and the over-ambitious targets set for enrollments, teachers, buildings and equipment were not achieved because of financial constraints, lack of teachers and under-capacity of the construction industry. However, grades 7 and 8 were added and a commendable community effort was made (with support under Credit 567-RW) in building workshops at a large nmmber of schools, though targets are far from met. Automatic promotion in primary schools was dropped in 1981 and the double-shift system was retained. Of 1290 planned, only 195 CERAI were built. 2.04 With very strong support from Belgian experts in the BPES (Bureau Pedagogique de 1'Enseignement Secondaire), preparation of diversified curricula for secondary schools advanced well with finalization scheduled for October 1984. However, reformed curricula introduction in schools has not been successful due mainly to shortagns of trained teachers. Nor was the proportion of day-students in secondary schools much increased. But very significant enrollment increases were made, especially in primary education, 9/ secondary technical education and teacher training over the SDP period. The Agriculture Faculty of the National University of Rwanda (NUR) was developed with assistance from Canada, though enrollments therein still comprise only about 10 percent of students. 9/ Nevertheless, it soon became clear that the target of achieving universal primary education by 1986 was totally unrealistic.  -6- 2.05 The educational objectives of the TDP 1982-1986 remain basically the same as for the SDP. However, the Government, more conscious now of various constraints, has set more realistic targets. An enrollment increase of 8 percent yearly has been targeted for primary education to allow for the rapid population growth of 3.6 percent yearly plus a further modest increase. Previous grand scale expansion targets for CERAI have been reduced to two per commune, representing a decrease from 90 to 25 percent admission of primary school leavers. Admission to secondary education has been targeted at 10 percent of primary school leavers with the continued objective to increase day-students through extensions at existing schools. Teacher training would be expanded so that the proportion of unqualified teachers in primary education would not exceed 50 percent. Admissions to the NUR and curricula therein would be geared to labor force needs and a student/teacher ratio of 10:1 is targeted. It is also aimed to reduce the illiteracy rate from 63 percent to 59 percent during the plan period. Before assessing the reform and development prospects for the ETS, it is appropriate to examine more recent developments in detail. Recent ETS Developments (a) General 2.06 Enrollments in the formal education system increased rapidly from 1978 to 1983 as shown in Annex 1, T-1.. Primary school enrollments increased by an average 10 percent yearly to 747,200, or 66 percent of the age-group 7-14 years. Enrollments in the CERAI (post-primary grades 9-11) increased by an average 9 percent yearly to 16,800 and in secondary education by an average of 1.5 percent yearly to 14,200, representing overall, almost 7 percent of the age-group 15-20 years. Enrollments in the NUR, including the Butare and Ruhengeri campuses, 10/ increased by 8 percent yearly to 1,300. However, with the termination of automatic promotion in primary education, repetition and attrition rates deteriorated to 14 and 12 percent respectively, in 1983. Repetition rate was 5 percent in secondary education where attrition rate was 12 percent for first year students due to admissions frequently based on regional and ethnic considerations, but low thereafter because of good motivation. The attrition rate re-ains extremely high at 43 percent in the NUR. (b) Primary Education 2.07 Participation rates are improving steadily in primary education but they vary among the 10 prefectures from Kibuye's 73 percent to Byumba's 61 percent. Girls represent 48 percent of total enrollments and 42 percent of the teachers are female. Student/teacher ratio has improved to 55 which is equivalent to 40, allowing for the double shift system operated in grades 1-3. However, with rapid enrollment increase, the proportion of unqualified teachers has risen to 66 percent for grades 1-6 since 1978, 10/ With the establishment of a Ministry of Higher Education (MINESUPRES) in 1981, it was decided to start a second campus of the NUR in Ruhengeri and to transfer to it the Institut Pedagogique National; enrollment at the Butare Campus is 800 and at Ruhengeri 500.  -7- with deleterious effect upon quality. Teaching of workshop subjects in grades 7-8 is generally weak as the required retraining of teachers was sub-standard. Expenditure on textbooks and educational materials is miniscule and quality suffers also from severe shortages in this regard. Standard of school buildings seems to be improving with 69 percent having stone or brick walls and hard roofs, though furniture, basic equipment and lighting in many schools are either lacking or very poor. (c) CERAI 2.08 The 289 CERAI comprise the former CERAR and Sections Familiales which were combined only in 1982. They evolved from the non-formal system, and girls comprise 62 percent of enrollments. The teaching program aims at providing skills relevant to improved rural living but curricula remain improvised and teaching is frequently faulty. Aims are duplicative of those in primary grades 7-8 and the small size of these grade 9-11 schools renders efficient use of resources difficult. Student/teacher ratio is very low at 11 at this stage. However, with development to two-stream size of about 200 enrollment, this may improve. Cd) Secondary Education 2.09 The 73 secondary schools (all boarding: 64 public and 9 private) are small with an average enrollment below 200, and mainly of missionary origin, are practically all managed by. church personnel or church-related organizations. The schools are not equitably located but equalization is aimed at through entrants' selection; Gisenyi and Byumba prefectures have highest and least participation, respectively. Percentages of girls taking general, technical and primary teacher training courses are 21, 26 and 38, respectively. Reformed curricula were introduced in school-year 1980/81 without sufficient dialogue with school staff and insufficient trained teachers for diversified curricula. Teachers (75 percent Iwandese) are now 69 percent qualified but student/teacher ratio is low at 14. However, education quality is mixed due to low standards of entrants and insufficient textbooks and learning materials. Entrants' weaknesses are particularly marked in French language, which is so important for success as most subjects are taught through French. 11/ (e) Higher Education 2.10 The structure of the higher education system is given in Annex 1, C-2. The NUR (including both camLpuses) has 10 faculties with enrollment perceatage shown as follows: commerce 21, arts 17, medicine 12, agriculture 10, science 9, law 9, education 9, engineering 5, applied sciences 5, and pharmacy 3. Girls comprise 15 percent of students. A large number of students (534, equivalent to 41 percent of NUR enrollment) study abroad mainly in the USSR, Belgium, France and the Federal Republic of Germany. 11/ All primary subjects are taught in Kinyarwanda and French is introduced in Grade 4.  -8- The average student attrition rate which is very high at 43 percent, is particularly serious in the science and commerce faculties. Main causes comprise: (a) gaps between secondary school curricula and NUR studies; Cb) weaknesses in selection/orientation criteria; (c) NUR curricula insufficiently relevant; and (d) shortcomings in NUR teaching together with lack of reference books. 12/ Of the 200 teachers, 120 are Rwandese and the student/teacher ratio-of 7 is much too low. 2.11 The political decision made in 1981 to establish a second campus in the North on a site some 10 km. from Ruhengeri has-serious cost implications, especially regarding diseconomies of scale and administrative duplicaton. Following the transfer of the IPN (Institut Pedagogique National - secondary teacher training) from Butare, the second campus would comprise Faculties of Arts, Science and Education. Sub-sector studies normally required as a prerequisite to such an important decision, including definition of a university development strategy linked to trained manpower needs of the economy, pedagogical analysis and master plan for campus development, have not been undertaken. Prior to master plan stage, studies should be completed with quantitative and qualitative analysis of the existing higher education sub-sector leading to justification of the proposed expansion. These studies would include: (a) manpower requirements assessment; (b) analysis of institutional organization and administration of the system together with cost and financing analysis; (c) pedagogical analysis including admission procedures, curricula, teaching methods and materials, teacher supply and demand, certification, post-graduate studies and research; and (d) role of the sub-sector in adult education. Financial Aspects 2.12 Details of Government expenditures on the formal education system are given in Annex 1, T-2. Total expenditures increased at a yearly average of almost 18 percent during 1978-83 to FRw 4,113.5 million representing 2.7 percent of GNP. 13/ Recurrent expenditures increased rapidly to FRw 3,981.3 million for the MINEPRISEC and FRw 530.6 million for the MINESUPRES, representing a yearly average of 22 percent or 24.5 percent of the national budget. This is relatively high for a country of Rwanda's level of development. Apportionment of the MINEPRISEC 1983 budget to primary/CERAI 81.percent and secondary education 19 percent was little changed from previous years. Percentage breakdown for teaching, teaching materials and administration of 88, 4 and 8 respectively, for primary/CERAI shows a marked increase in the proportion for teaching offset by a serious decline in maintenance expenditure. On the other hand, allocations to administration, boarding and maintenance in secondary education at 14, 19 and 26 percent respectively, represent very high costs in relation to 37 and 4 percent for teaching and teaching materials, respectively. 12/ Universite Nationale du Rwanda, Etude des causes d'echecs a l'Universite, mai, 1983. 13/ 1982 and 1983 expenditures for MINEPRISEC only as the MINESUPRES was established in 1981.  -9- Percentage apportionment for 1983 in the NUR was: teaching 59, administration 7, research 6 and scholarships 28. Unit recurrent costs per student in 1983 were: primary/CERAI FRw 4,000 (US$43), secondary FRw 64,900 (US$699) and NUR FRw 463,500 (US$4,988) representing a sharp increase in secondary and university costs. By African standards, unit costs are low in primary but relatively high in secondary and higher education, due especially to low student/teacher ratios and high boarding costs. Administration costs in the NUR are particularly high. External Aid 2.13 Rwanda benefits from very significant external aid for its development, estimated at US$143 million in 1982 (almost US$30 per capita) for technical assistance and capital aid in the proportion 55 and 45 percent, respectively. 14/ The education sector (excluding project related training in other sectors and Belgian assistance) received US$12 million external aid through formal agreements in 1982, representing 8 percent of total aid and over 20 percent of total educational expenditures. The main sources of aid in descending order by percentage are: the Federal Republic of Germany (22), Belgium (16), EEC (12), World Bank Group (10), Canada (6), Switzerland (5), USA (5), France and remainder (24) including non-government organizations (NGOs), UNDP and the High Commission for Refugees. Apart from fellowships, the FRG supports the MINEPRISEC printshop, Belgium assists curriculum development and the NUR, Canada aids the NUR and adult education, Switzerland supports an agro-forestry school and INADES correspondence courses and the USA helps agriculture, the cooperatives and adult education. Of the enormous flow of NGO contribucions (recently estimated at US$20.0 million yearly) largely sponsored by the church to support a close-knit fabric of local organizations, a good proportion goes to education. Coordination of external aid and ensuring its most productive use requires improvements, especially on Rwandese policy and management issues. Donors are developing their own system of exchange and complementarity. The mDst important aid agencies indicate that the high level of external aid received over recent years may not be maintained. Reform Evaluation and Development Prospects 2.14 Undoubtedly the most controversial element of the ongoing educational reform is the structural change lengthening primary education from 6 to 8 years. This is especially so because of cost implications and pedagogical shortcomings. Representing an insufficiently analyzed compromise among political, social, economic, implementation and pedagogical objectives, this reform has inherent inconsistencies.. Faced with very strong social demand for widespread admission to primary education, a decision to use double-shift for grades 1-3 15/ was 14/ UNDP, Rapport annuel sur l'assistance au developpement: Rwanda 1982, Oct. 1983. 15/ In this double-shift system, the same teachers and accommodation used for one half of G1-3 students who attend during the first half of the school day, are used for the remainder of G1-3 students attending during the latter half of the school day.  - 10 - politically attractive as twice as many students could be enrolled in these grades with virtually no increase in teachers, buildings or equipment and thus, little cost increase. The reform's response to similar pressure for increased entry to secondary education was also politically rational. In effect, it meant diverting this demand to less costly: (a) grade 7-8 rural-based practical training in primary schools; and (b) further elementary vocational training thereafter in CERAI for students not proceeding to secondary education who might thus be more employable in rural areas and ease the increasingly difficult problem of job creation. While this solution may have strong political, social and economic merits in that burgeoning public demand for increased admissions to first- and second-level education was faced by the Government, nevertheless it was pedagogically and administratively unacceptable. Double-shift in GI-3 meant a totally insufficient challenge in these grades (when many pedagogues consider the most crucial building blocks for a good education are laid) where at best, children were given half measures. A poor teaching/learning environment combined with a high proportion of unqualified teachers made matters worse. Among other weaknesses, the addition of G7-8 with introduction of practical subjects was not effective. Inadequately trained practical teachers reverted to -chalk and talkl and students who received little practical training never became really motivated. In addition, these extra years were not helpful (but often harmful) to students proceeding to second-level education. Those proceeding to CERAI had not received the best impression of practical training; those for secondary schools often felt they had wasted their time. 2.15 To implement this structural change and the new decision made in the SDP to discontinue double-shift, achieve targets of universal primary education by 1986, together with CERAI training for 90 percent of primary leavers and admission of remaining 10 percent to secondary education were totally unrealistic because of financial constraints, 16/ shortages of teachers and the limited capacity of the construction industry. While targets have been scaled down dramatically for the TDP (para. 2.05) in the light of SDP experiences, the very serious pedagogical problems mentioned above remain. 2.16 The key problem posed now is how to reach an alternative which is satisfactory pedagogically as well as politically, and responds to the strong social demand for increased enrollments while taking account realistically of severe budgetary constraints and a population growing at 3.6 percent yearly. In looking at options, two points are clear: (a) achievement of both UPE and single shift must remain a long-term goal; and (b) because of the pedagogical problems related to grade 1-8 primary education, alternatives to this structure should be considered. Because of strong public pressure for increased enrollments, an important choice lies largely between increased investment in grades 7-8 as against increased participatioa and improved education for earlier grades. 16/ A conservative estimate of recurrent cost of implementing this reform is put a minimum 40 percent of the Government's budget, about almost twice the actual level.  - 11 - 2.17 Directions which might rationally be taken to redress the pedagogical problems concerned and take account of social demand are based upon options tested by computer summarized in Annex 1, T-3 and discussed below. Given an education budget based upon 23 percent of total Government recurrent expenditures, assumed to increase at 10 percent yearly from 1983, as planned in the TDP, primary teacher salaries retaining 1984 real values and repetition and attrition rates improving from 14 and 12 percent respectively in 1983 to 10 percent each in 1995, the table gives the results of two sets of options: firstly, present grade 1-8 structure using double-shift system i,n grades 1-3, double-shift grades 1-2, double shift grade 1 only and single shift only; secondly, grade 1-7 structure with same four variables. 2.18 Two key factors requiring balance are increased enrollment/parti- cipation and improved quality. With this in mind, an examination of the options, shows improved quality with gradual phasing out of double-shift as a reasonable strategy. Thus, within a 1995 budget based upon linear growth mentioned above and population forecasts for the primary school age-groups concerned, 79 percent net enrollment ratio under present grade 1-8 structure using double-shift for just grades 1-2 could be achieved at that time with employment of 32,600 teachers. Iu addition, about 9 percent of the primary education allocation would remain available for use in improving quality. But 83 percent net enrollment ratio with a grade 1-7 structure using double-shift for grades 1-2, is achievable by 1995 with employment of 30,000 teachers leaving 16 percent of the primary education allocation for improving quality. Or 83 percent net enrollment ratio with a grade 1-7 structure using double-shift in grade 1 only could be achieved by 1995 with 33,600 teachers leaving 7 percent of the primary education allocation for quality improvement. 17/ 2.19 It seems reasonable to aim at limiting double-shift to grade 1 only by 1995 under a grade 1-7 structure, though changing to a grade 1-6 structure with no double-shift, at the earliest stage, should be the ultimate aim. 18/ This approach should be satisfactory from political, economic and pedlagogical/quality viewpoints as it shows planned progress towards UPE, is financially feasible and would enable the quality improvement so badly needed. While it is expected that it would be more efficient, enabling greater participation in primary education and a faster flow through the system, nevertheless phasing out double-shift in the early grades is far more important and deserves top priority in pedagogical 17/ A change to a grade 1-6 primary structure would permit even earlier achievement of UPE at lesser overall expenditure. 18/ Eastern Africa countries with a GI-7 primary education structure include: Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.  - 12 - terms. It would be extremely difficult to cost the loss sustained by all those Gl-3 student passing through the system on "half-time" during that critical period.19/ As an intermediate target, reducing double-shift from grades 1-3 to grades 1-2 by 1990 is achievable and would allow some 15 percent of the primary education allocation for quality improvement. Then the grade 1-7 structure in 1995 would comprise grade 1 having double-shift followed by six standard primary grades where elementary practical subjects would be introduced in grades 6-7. Emphasis over this period would be placed on improving education materials allocation (from the present minuscule level of less than one percent) and reducing drastically the high proportion of unqualified teachers. 2.20 With the target of over 1.5 million (somewhat less than 8 percent yearly growth) primary school enrollments by 1995 under a grade 1-7 structure with double-shift in grade 1, teacher training needs are immense as shown in Annex 1, T-3. The present yearly output potential of about 1,000 trained in over 30 secondary schools would require expansion to about 3,000 and consolidation of the system is necessary. On the capital cost side this implies up to threefold increase in classroom accommodation together with expansion of dormitory places from about 8,000 to over 21,000 and this poses a serious problem in mobilization of funds. Because of lead time necessary, thorough planning and early action is required to meet these-needs in a timely fashion. A study of teacher training needs is at present under consideration by the Government in this regard. 20/ In addition, much re-training of teachers must be organized. 2.21 However, with a more realistic assumption (than shown in para. 2.17) of total Government recurrent expenditures increasing at just 5 percent yearly (more in line with possible GNP growth rate), with the education share remaining at 23 percent thereof, possibilities for enrollment expansion would be much more curtailed as shown in Annex 1, T-3(b). With this assumption and limitation of double-shift to grade 1 only by 1995 under a grade 1-7 structure, just about 1.2 million primary school enrollments or an average yearly growth of 3.7 percent, could be achieved. As this would represent a reduction in enrollment ratio from about 66 to 60 percent, it could prove difficult to maintain among a public exerting strong social demand for increased participation. Thus, since total recurrent expenditures may not increase yearly by up to 10 percent, the Government would have to increase the education share of the budget just above 30 percent, with reductions elsewhere in recurrent expenditures, to achieve 8 percent yearly growth in primary education as targeted in the TDP. To maintain enrollment ratio of 66 percent under this assumption, the education share of the budget would have to increase above 25 percent. 19/ A plauned MINEPRISEC study would evaluate in detail the economic optimum option for primary education development. 20/ MINEPRISEC, Etude et programmation des besoins en enseignants au Rwanda 1983-2000, mars 1983.  - 13 - III. TECHNICAL EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING Background 3.01 In Rwanda, technical education comprises mainly technical-industrial, agricultural, conuercial, paramedical and teacher education in the formal system. Vocational training includes all training activities which are neither school-based in the formal system nor lead to school certification, but prepares trainees directly for jobs in all economic sectors and at all levels. This training usually follows school-based training and includes professional training, the term frequently applied to trainees above technician level. A modern apprenticeship system whereby trainees under contract are given complementary practical/academic instruction leading to nationally recognized certification, is not well developed in Rwanda. However, a traditional indentureship system does exist, whereby trainees working alongside experienced craftsmen over extended periods informally acquire skills. 3.02 The relationship among technical education, vocational training and the labor force (in both the traditional and modern sectors) is shown in Annex 1, C-3. Much overlap exists between general and technical/voca- tional education. Thus, in the formal system. controlled by MINEPRISEC, it is aimed through introducing'practical subjects in primary grades 7-8, to help develop students' creative/manipulative skills without requiring vocational proficiency. For students not gaining entry to secondary schools, it is aimed to provide greater vocational proficiency in CERAI grades 9-11 (para. 2.08) geared towards re-integration in their rural environment. The agricultural, commercial, paramedical and teacher training disciplines developed in secondary schools are largely pre-vocational in nature. Training similar to that in CERAI (but somewhat more specialized) is given in 36 Youth Training Centers (YTC) conducted by the Ministry of Youth and Sport (Annex 1, T-4). The Ministry of Posts and Communications provides training in three schools for postal services, telecommunications and civil aviation/meteorology, respectively. The Ministry of Public Works and Urban Affairs provides maintenance training in its Kigali central maintenance facility under a modern apprenticeship system. The Ministry of Public Service and Professional Training (MINIFOPE) undertakes training of middle-level civil servants and others in centers at Muhima and Murambi - one providing ad hoc courses of varying duration and the other more formal 9-month courses. Finally, the MINESUPRES provides professional training in the NUR. 3.03 Apart from the above more formally organized courses, there are numerous training activities, ranging from formal to non-formal, undertaken by a variety of public and private organizations. 21/ These include important activities supported by the Ministry of Agriculture whereby: (a) 21/ Information on these activities is incomplete and would be updated in the sector study scheduled to be undertaken with WBG support in FY85.  - 14 - agricultural extension workers in direct contact with farmers advise on erosion control, coffee and tea grove maintenance, reafforestation and thinning of banana groves; and (b) the cooperative movement of 350 units is developed. Much health training is given in about 90 Health Centers under the responsibility of the Ministry of Health (MINISANTE) which also supports nutrition centers and communal centers for development and permanent training. Traiaing in home-making is given to women in 400 Community Centers (foyers sociaux) and 600 women are both trained and employed in 23 Household Workshops (ateliers sociaux). Functional training is given in 184 Literacy Training Centers. A correspondence school headquartered in Kigali (INADES) established in 1976, enrolled over 2,000 students in 1983 and lays emphasis on rural/agricultural development. There is much potential for development of ORINFOR (Office Rwandais d'Information) which is responsible for the national radio and press, especially improvement upon the small-circulation weekly newspapers in French and Kinyrwanda. In addition, some training is given by private enterprises, but because of the smallness of the industrial sector this is not very significant. Development of Technical Education and Vocational Training (a) Technical/Secondary Schools 3.04 Two technical schools in Kigali (Kichukiro ETO) and Save provide technical-industrial education and training and the former Kanombe YTC is being upgraded to technical school status. In addition to these schools with planned enrollments of 540, 320 and 500 respectively, the MINEPRISEC has planned four others with enrollments as follows: Kibungo (320), Muhororo (320), Gikongoro (320) and Kibuye (270); external aid for then is being requested from the African Development Bank, the EEC, North Korea and the World Bank Group (WBG), respectively. The planned output of about 400 graduates yearly from these schools may be excessive for labor force needs. 3.05 Reformed curricula recently prepared by the BPES which provide 4-year and 6-year programs for A3 and A2 levels respectively, are not sufficiently close to user needs. For A3 training, students during the first two years devote one-half of their time to technical/practical subjects and two-thirds of time in the final two years; time on workshop practice is about 28 percent in the second year and 46 percent in the fourth year. At A2 level, a total of 56 percent of time is spent on technical/practical subjects, of which 23 percent on practical subjects alone. Equipment in existing schools is adequate but shortage of qualified teachers is a serious problem. In addition, the range of specializations or trades is too narrow to satisfy the increasingly diversified needs of Rwanda. 3.06 Technical training in agriculture, veterinary science and forestry for A2 level is provided in three schools in Kabutare, Nyagahanga (Byumba - girls) and Nyamishaba (Kibuye) with a fourth school to open in 1985/86. However, shortages of A3 level skilled craftsmen seem to be acute with many vacancies at present being filled by CERAI graduates. Six schools in Butare, Gisenyi, Kigali, Muramba, Nyundo and Rwasa offer two commerce courses (including accounting) at upper secondary level. The first course trains for secretarial employment and the second prepares students for university entrance. Output falls far short of needs.  - 15 - Paramedical training at A2 level for medical assistants is given in Kigali and Butare having a yearly output of 40, and for senior nurses (A2) at Rwamagama and Kabgayi having an output of 30 yearly. Junior nurses (A3) are trained in Kilinda and Mugonero with a yearly output of 25. Shortages of A3 nurses are most acute with present output just about covering attrition. Coordination between the supplier MINEPRISEC and the user MINISANTE is inadequate and teaching requires improvement through text adaptation to Rwandese circumstances. (b) Technical Teacher Training 3.07 While technical teacher training needs have thus far been satisfied with Belgian assistance at Kichukiro and the church community at Save, a serious shortage of teachers is looming because of the expanding system. The MINEPRISEC short-term and long-term proposals to me_t the problem are questionable. The short-term proposal constitutes using a teaching practice room and audio-visual workshop being added at Kichukiro Technical School (with ADB financing) to form a Technical Teacher Training Center - CEPET (centre de formation et de perfectionnment m6thodologique pour professeurs de 1'enseignement technique) with use of classroom and workshop facilities used since 1981 for teacher re-training. About 20 teachers would be trained in a one-year program, which would include six months at CEPET followed by six weeks supervised industrial practice and three weeks teaching practice in a technical school. The program seems to overemphasize pedagogy, especially as candidates with sufficient workshop experience are scarce in Rwanda. 3.08 In the long-term proposal, an Ecole Normale Superieure de V'Enseignement Technique (ENTS) would be established on the NUR Ruhengeri campus. A preinvestment study for the ENTS financed by the ADB is due to start in September 1984. As adequate emphasis on practical training should be given and wasteful duplication avoided, justification of a new ENTS on che Ruhengeri campus as part of a comprehensive technical teacher training strategy may prove difficult. However, it would seem that development of the following technical/vocational teacher training institutes could be justified: (a) technical teacher training for A3 level candidates to teach in CERAIs and YTCs; (b) CEPET for A2/A3 level candidates to teach in technical/secondary schools; (c) national vocational training center to include vocational instructor training/up-grading; and (d) Al level higher technician training in the extended NUR Faculty of Applied Sciences (engineering training, Butare campus) in a variety of technical fields. A serious gap exists under (d) as no Al level higher technician training exists in Rwanda. (c) NUR Faculty of Engineering 3.09 Because of limited manpower needs and financial constraints, the NUR Faculty of Applied Sciences training by cohort, graduated 11 and 16 civil engineers in 1975 and 1981 respectively, and 13 engineers in electro-mechanics in 1983. However, with laboratories/workshops extensions being built through Canadian assistance, it is planned shortly to have a yearly intake of 30 students in these two specialisms. Programs for the Baccalaureat- in Technology and Engineering Sciences (B.Sc. Engineering equivalent) together with a 'Licence in Electro-mechancis (M.Sc. Enginering equivalent) will be offered on the Butare campus.  - 16 - Manpower Requirements 3.10 Despite availability of recent analyses, 22/ assessment of labor force requirements of Rwanda's industrial sector and industrial training needs accordingly, remains difficult for lack of data. This difficulty is compounded by imprecise information on the destination of graduates from technical education/vocational training: whether the industrial sector, administrative posts or emigration. In addition, CERAI and YTC graduates, though intended for reintegration in the traditional sector, still enter the modera sector in significant nuwbers. However, by mission estimates (Annex 1, T-5) it seems that even beyond 1990, shortages of engineers, higher and junior technicians may become increasingly acute. On the other hand, if present training plans materialize, a large surplus of A3 and A4 level skilled and semi-skilled workers may emerge, though shortages in specific fields such as nursing and agriculture my persist. As the apparent excess of A3 personnel represent CERAI and YTC graduates, the problem may not be so serious, since flexibility to move into and out of the traditional sector is acceptable. 3.11 So far, technical/vocational education graduates have no problems in finding employment but there are indications of a serious qualitative mismatch between demand and supply. This is due to training concentration in a few fields such as construction, bricklaying and carpentry whose skills are fairly easily acquired through informal indentureship or CERAI/YTC training. Training in trades becoming Increasingly important with growth and diversification of the industrial sector, such as heavy duty mechanics, electronics, refrigeration and air conditioning, is not provided at all. In addition, there is no provision for upgrading training to keep abreast of new technological advances or reach higher levels of competence. Problems and Possible Remedies 3.12 The main weaknesses associated with technical education and vocational training may be suanarized as follows: (a) too narrow range in trades training of skilled workers (carpentry/cabinet making, fitting/machiniag, electrical wiring, automobile mechanics, bricklaying) and junior technicians (construction, electro-mechanics); (b) external inefficiency developing with serious shortages of engineers and technicians likely under present plans, together with over-production of skilled workers (A. , A4), though shortages of skilled workers in nursing and agriculture may persist; (c) shortages of qualified technical teachers and the need to prepare and implement a comprehensive system of technical teacher training; (d) insufficient consultation/coordination between supplier and user miaistries; (e) no training provision for Al level higher technicians; (f) need for vocational training/upgrading system; (g) difficulties in defining equivalence for some training received abroad; and (h) undeveloped status of a modern apprenticeship scheme. 22/ (a) ILO. Pour une priorite au developpement de 1'emploi dans le cadre du III ame plan quinquennal du Rwanda 1982-1987, 1981 (Draft). (b) MINIPLAN. III eme Plan de developpement economigue, social et culturel 1982-1986, 1982.  - 17 - 3.13 Among priority actions required to overcome these weaknesses are the following: (a) broadening the range of trades' training; (b) provision of higher technician training; (c) planning and implementing a comprehensive system of technical teacher training; (d) development of the MINIFOP administrative structure concerned with vocational/professional training and establishment of a national vocational training center and possibly, a national school of administration; and 'e) modernization of the system of traditional indentureship towards a modern apprenticeship scheme. IV. AnMINISTRATION OF THE ETS AND INSTITUTION BUILD=IG Overali Administration 4.01 Organization charts for the MINEPRISEC and the MINESUPRES are given in Annex 1, C-3 and C-4, respectively. The MINEPRISEC has responsibility for first- and second-level education and in principle, delegates much authority to the 10 prefectures, and in turn to the 143 communes. In each prefecture, a Sous-Prefet, responsible ror socio-cultural affairs for all ninistries, works closely with the Inspecteur d'Arrondissement who deals solely with MINEPRISEC matters. At regional level, pedagogical inspection is the main responsibility of the Inspecteur Adjoint; he coordinates inspection reports from zonal inspectors and school principals and makes quarterly and annual reports accordingly to the MINEPRISEC. The commune Bourgemestre mainly leads community support for school construction. In practice, administration remains very centralized in the capital, Klgali. 4.02 MINEPRISEC personnel organized in accordance with the above-mentioned chart and housed in a large modern building in the capital, administer: (a) 1,572 primary schools having 13,590 teachers for 747,172 students; (b) 304 CERAI with 1,600 teachers for 16,784 students; and (c) 73 secondary schools having 1,037 teachers for 14,230 students. Total ministry non-teaching personnel comprise about 1,200 civil servants. There are small separate ministry buildings in Kigali: (a) the SFCS responsible for architectural and financial aspects of school construction; (b) two pedagogical institutes for curriculum development for primary and secondary schools; and (c) a printshop for the production of school textbooks. Over 50 expatriates assist with administration of the ETS, including 28 Belgian experts (mainly in BPES), 16 experts (mainly French) in the primary curriculum unit and teacher re-training, four UNESCO/UNDP experts (one in planning directorate and three in SFCS architectural work), three GTZ specialists in the printshop, and three others assisting educational reform.  - 18 - Objectives and Planning 4.03 Because of political influence upon them, objectives and targets in the education section of the TDP, though clearly defined, contain inconsistencies on pedagogical aspects and implementation possibilities (para. 2.14). Thus the gap betweeen targets and action programs is wide even though educational planning has greatly improved with the help of the two experts mentioned above and prompting from MINIPLAN. In view of ongoing severe financial constraints, more rigorous analysis of various options is required to ensure a cost-effective approach and concentration of resources on priority areas. However, technical analysis alone without a firmer political will to direct development in accordance with its results will not solve problems. Seminars recently organized in prefectures by NINEPRISEC experts together with their Rwandese counterparts, to explain the TDP and assist with school mapping, represent an important development in educational planning. Implementation (a) Central Administration 4.04 Despite definite improvements made, overall educational administration in the MINEPRISEC has not evolved sufficiently to control efficiently the threefold enrollment increase achieved over the last 20 years. Main problems rest in the area of implementation and may be summarized under five headings: (a) weaknesses in programming and project implementation; (b) inefficiencies due to shortcomings in administrative decision-making; (c) lack of management continuity; (d) insufficient training in educational administration; and (e) inappropriate office technology for modern administration. There are indications of overstaffing and under-management. The new MINESUPRES is only now getting into its stride and administration costs are relatively high. 4.05 Smooth progression from the five-year education plan to programming and implementation of projects is thwarted by continuous political considerations in decision-making and bureaucratic delays, which are inter-related. As inherited from earlier, simpler days, decision-making is over-centralized in the offices of the Secretary Generaland the Minister. Even simple decisions which could well be delegated to Directors are still made at top level with waste of time on trivial matters. Much delegation of authority is necessary. Because of lack of coordination also, among directorates causing many bottlenecks, an organizational change bringing Planning/Programming/Project Implementation under the direct control of the Secretary General could prove more efficient. 4.06 While senior management personnel generally have higher education qualifications, their effectiveness is hampered by their lack of-training in administration and frequent changes of post. There are no facilities for training in educational administration in Rwanda and only a limited number bave trained abroad in this discipline. The standard of personnel and office management suffers accordingly.  - 19 - 4.07 Shortcomings in outmoded manual operations in office management practices have become more serious with rapid growth of the ETS, especially in the areas of financial administration, examinations, information systems and inventories. The European (OCAM) systen of accounting is operated manually in the MINEPRISEC with much delay in salary payments and confusion due to the 25,000 financial transactions (value about US$30 million) required yearly. These shortcomings are compounded by lack of trained accountants. Carefully planned and gradual introduction of computerization of accounting, examinations, information and inventory systems are warranted to meet a deteriorating situation. (b) Regional and Institutional Administration 4.08 Lack of the required infrastructure (administation facilities, qualified personnel, transport, finance, etc.) hampers the Government's aim to decentralize administration to the 10 prefecturez. The inspection system too, is handicapped for similar reasons. Under the direction of the central inspectorate (6 inspectors for primary schools, 11 for CERAI and 6 for secondary schools) the 10 Inspectors d'Arrondissements control 97 sector inspectors and principals responsible for 340 zones who follow-up educational and administrative matters in schools. Because of recent emphasis on quantitative expansion of the ETS and reform, inspection has been rather neglected with detrimental effects upon educational quality. The standard of school management varies dependent upon the principal. Increased attention must be paid to selection and training of inspectors together with the preparation of administration/inspection guidelines. Church-related schools are generally better run but overall there is much scope for improvement. Possible Remedies 4.09 Priority remedial actions required may be summarized as follows: (a) decentralization of authority within the MINEPRISEC and bringing Planning/Programming/Project Implementation under the direct control of the Secretary General; (b) development of a feasible training scheme in educational planning, administration and pedagogy to reduce dependence on expatriates and improve educational management; (c) improvement of evaluation, including project monitoring and cost control as well as improved pedagogical inspection based on a stronger inspectorate; and (d) modernization of office technology through gradual introduction of appropriate computerization, especially of the financial accounting, examination, information and inventories systems.  - 20 - V. MAJOR ISSUES AND POSSIBLE REMEDIES Summary of Issues 5.01 Given the two overriding factors of continuing severe financial constraints and rapid population growth, the major issues to be faced in developing the Rwandese ETS may be summarized as follows: (a) clear definition of rational educational objectives striking a reasonable balance among political, economic, equity, implementation and pedagogical goals which are frequently conflicting; (b) application of rigorous cost control; (c) improvement of efficiency; (d) amelioration of quality as the system expands; (e) preparation and implementation of an appropriate scheme for technical teacher training; (f) continuous evaluation of the ETS with a view to gearing it to meet job opportunities for school leavers; (g) preparation and implementation of an appropriate scheme for institution building, especially with regard to central and regional administration; and (h) planning and coordination of programs to improve the literacy rate of the population. Issues' Details (a) Educational Objectives 5.02 While progress has been made in setting more realistic objectives and targets for educational development in the TDP, there's a long way to go in defining well balanced educational objectives. It will require more bold and refined planning especially in the education ministries, spelling out financial realities and pedagogical implications of various options to be considered by decision-makers and the Government. However, as technical analysis remains sterile if not accompanied by political commitment, communication of implications of various options more thoroughly to decision-makers is a problem to be faced especially by education planners and administrators. This is especially true with regard to the structural reform in primary education and a development strategy for higher education. Ways must be found to involve schools and the public to a much greater extent in discussion of objectives, targets and major issues in ETS development as an input to decision-making. (b) Cost Control 5.03 Four elements of recurrent costs require urgent attention - low student/teacher ratios, high boarding scholarship expenditures, small school size, and length of courses. While teacher expenditures and unit recurrent costs are relatively modest in primary education, they are rather high in the CERAI, secondary schools and the NUR and this is closely linked to very low student/teacher ratios of 11, 14 and 7, respectively. The 8-grade system in primary education and high repetition/attrition rates not only increase the cost of producing a graduate but also postpone the timing of achieving UPE. Relating unit costs to GNP per capita, Rwanda's secondary education costs are among the highest in Eastern Africa. To control unit costs in secondary education, increased student/teacher ratio towards 24 and a cost sharing scheme, especially for board