Djibouti - Geothermal Exploration Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ I Report No. P-3739-DI REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIREC TORS ON A PROPOSED IDA CREDIT FOR SDR 5.7 MILLION (US$6.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF DJ IBOUTI FOR A GEOTHERMAL EXPLORATION PROJECT May 7, 1984 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = FD US$1.00 = FD177.7 DF 1,000 US$5.6 DF 1,000,000 US$5,627 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 cm - centimeter = 0.39 inches 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet 1 m - cubic meter = 264 US gallons 1 1 - liter = 0.26 US gallons 1 bbl - barrel = 42 US gallons 1 kg - kilogram = 2.2 pounds 1 km - kilometer = 0.62 miles 1 km2 - square kilometer = 0.39 square miles 1 t - ton = 2,205 pounds 1 kW - kilowatt = 1,000 watts 1 MW - megawatt = 1,000 kilowatts 1 kWh - kilowatthour 1,000 watthours 1 GWh - gigawatthour 1 million kilowatthours ABBREVIATIONS BAD - Banque Africaine de Developpement (African Development Bank) BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Miniares EDD - Electricite de Djibouti ENI - Ente nazionale de Idrocarburi EPH - Etablissement Public des Hydrocarbures ISERST - Institut Superieur d'Etudes et de Recherches MMB - Million barrels OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries TOE - Tons of Oil Equivalent in Heating Value UNDP - United Nations Development Program USAID - United States Agency for International Development FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  i-- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DJIBOUTI Geothermal Exploration Project Credit and Project Summary Borrower: The Republic of Djibouti Beneficiary: Institut Supgrieur d'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques et Techniques (ISERST) Amount: SDR 5.7 million (US$6.0 million equivalent) Terms: Standard IDA terms On-Lending Terms: The funds would be provided to ISERST as grant. Cofinancing: Italian Government with a grant of US$4.4 million; African Development Bank with a credit of US$2.5 million on African Development Fund terms; UNDP with a grant of US$1.0 million; and OPEC Fund with a US$1.0 million loan (17 years including 5 years grace period, one percent service charge). Project Description: Objectives: The project's main objective would be to explore the country's only known source of mineral energy to prove commercially exploitable geothermal reserves. In addition it would strengthen ISERST, the country's geothermal research institute, through appropriate technical assistance, and enable it to take a more active role in geothermal exploration and development operations. EDD, the country's electric power company, would be provided with assistance preparatory to incorporating geothermal power production facilities into its system. Components: (a) Geothermal drilling in the Hanle/Gaggade area including: (i) two temperature gradient wells (about 450 m deep) and (ii) up to four deep exploratory wells * (about 2,000 m deep); (b) complementary surface exploration works in the Hanle/Gaggade area, including gravity and electrical resistivity surveys and related studies; (c) technical assistance to ISERST, including: (i) consulting services for further project preparation; (ii) services of an expatriate project manager for three years; (iii) engineering services for the supervision of the deep drilling operations and the carrying out of related specialized services (logging, testing, etc.); (iv) training; (v) equipment and vehicles; (vi) external audits; and This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - (d) power studies to be undertaken by Electricite de Djibouti (EDD). Benefits: The immediate expected benefit from the project is the proving of commercial geothermal reserves in the Hanle/Gaggade area. When developed these reserves would contribute to reducing the country's current total reliance on imported fuels to satisfy its energy needs. Another benefit from the project would be to prepare local entities (ISERST and EDD) to take an active role in future geothermal exploration/development and ultimate production. Risks: The main risk associated with the project is that no sufficient reserves are found, or that their characteristics (in terms of temperature or chemical composition) are such as to prevent development and production on an economical basis; however, given Djibouti's overall prospectivity and the current data on the Hanle/Gaggade area, it is believed that this risk is small and is outweighed by the potential benefits associated with a commercial discovery, since the discounted savings associated with geothermal-based power production (including exploration and development drilling) are expected to exceed the cost of the proposed exploration investment by at least two to three times. Estimated Project Costs: US$ 1,000 Local Foreign Total (a) Drilling on Hanle/Gaggade 800 7,460 8,260 (i) Temperature gradient wells ( 40) ( 390) ( 430) (ii) Deep wells (760) (7,070) (7,830) (b) Complementary surface exploration 50 470 520 (c) Technical assistance to ISERST 390 3,250 3,640 (i) Project preparation - (140) (140) (ii) Geothermal project manager (40) (410) (450) (iii) Engineering & spec. services (210) (1,990) (2,200) (iv) Other technical assistance (140) (710) (850) (d) Power studies - 70 70 Base Cost (December 1983 prices) 1,240 11,020 12,490 Physical contingencies 220 1,760 1,980 Price contingencies 240 1,890 2,130 Total Contingencies 460 3,650 4,110 TOTAL PROJECT COSTa/ 1,700 14,900 16,600 a/ Net of taxes and duties  - iii - Financing Plan: US$ 1,000 Local Foreign Total IDA - 6,000 6,000 UNDP - 1,000 1,000 Government/ISERST 1,700 - 1,700 Italy - 4,400 4,400 African Development Bank - 2,500 2,500 OPEC Fund - 1,000 1,000 TOTAL 1,700 14,700 16,600 Estimated Disbursements: IDA FY - FY84 - -------FY85------- --- FY86------- - FY87 - 2nd Sem. lSt Sem. 2nd Sem. 1st Sem. 2nd Sem. lst Sem. Annual 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.2 Cumulative 0.2 1.7 3.5 4.8 5.8 6.0 Rate of Return: N.A. Staff Appraisal Report: N.A. Map: IBRD No. 18019  I  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF DJIBOUTI FOR A GEOTHERMAL EXPLORATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Republic of Djibouti for SDR 5.7 million (US$6 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance a geothermal exploration project. The Italian Government has agreed to cofinance this project with a grant of US$4.4 million and the UNDP with a grant of US$1.0 million. The African Development Bank has agreed to cofinance with a credit equivalent to about US$2.5 million on African Development Fund terms. The OPEC Fund has agreed to cofinance with a US$1.0 million loan (17 years including 5 years grace period, one percent service charge). PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "Djibouti: Economic Memorandum" (Report No. 3016-DJI) was distributed to the Executive Directors on November 3, 1980. A more recent economic report, entitled "Djibouti: Economic Situation and Prospects" (Report No. 4682-DJI), was issued in green cover in October 1983 and was discussed with the Djiboutian authorities in February 1984. The following paragraphs reflect the findings of this latest report. Structural Characteristics 3. The Republic of Djibouti is a small arid country located at the mouth of the Red Sea. Its land area of 23,000 square kilometers is bordered on the north, west and southwest by Ethiopia and on the southeast by Somalia. Although the results of a population census taken in January 1983 are not yet available, the 1982 population was estimated by the Government at about 330,000. In addition, there is a refugee population estimated at about 42,000. Djibouti became an independent nation in 1977 and joined the World Bank in 1980. 4. The country is characterized by a rugged topography, with elevations ranging from 150m below sea level to 2000m above. Its climate is very dry and hot, and in the absence of any perennial rivers, the lack of water is a major physical constraint. An estimated one million head of livestock are herded by the nomad population, who comprise roughly 20 percent of the total population. Because of the scarcity of water and harsh climate, only about 250 hectares are cultivated, although about 6,000 hectares are deemed to be potentially cultivable. The country's fishing potential is just beginning to be exploited. There are few proven  -2- natural resources except for salt, limestone, gypsum, other raw materials used in the production of cement, and some geothermal potential. The manufacturing sector is limited to a number of small-scale establishments producing for the domestic market. 5. In spite of its unfavorable climate and limited resources, Djibouti has nevertheless been able to benefit from its strategic location and its historical and regional ties to build upon the service-oriented economy inherited upon independence. Thus, while both the primary and secondary sectors are very underdeveloped, accounting for only 6 percent and 15 percent of GDP respectively, there is a relatively dominant and active tertiary sector associated with the port of Djibouti, the railway to Ethiopia, the international airport, a private banking system which handles some offshore business, and the presence of a relatively large number of French military and civilian personnel. The economy is a highly open one, notable for its complete lack of trade barriers and exchange restrictions, and there is a free trade zone at the port. To finance both current and capital expenditures, the Government has depended heavily on foreign grants and loans, which have made it possible to sustain large trade deficits. 6. In a number of respects, Djibouti's structural characteristics are similar to those of other least-developed countries, while in other respects these are exceptional. Among the exceptional characteristics are the extent to which the economy is service-oriented (as noted above), urban, open and aid-dependent. At the same time, the country's low level of development is reflected not only in the level of per capita income of its indigenous population, but also in terms of various social indicators. 7. Djibouti's per capita income was estimated in 1982 at about US$880. This average has to be interpreted, however, in the context of a relatively large foreign population and a high degree of income dispersion whereby the 16,000 registered wage earners received average incomes of US$3,500 whereas the average income of the 100,000 nomads was well below US$300. The per capita income of the indigenous population as a whole was estimated at US$480, thereby qualifying Djibouti for inclusion in the United Nations list of least- developed countries. 8. Approximately two-thirds of Djibouti's population live in the capital city. As a consequence of the inflow of refugees, the total population has been growing at a rate of about 8 percent per annum-- substantially above the national rate of population increase, estimated at 3 percent. There is no official population policy regarding either immigration/emigration or family planning. Djibouti spends close to 6 percent of its GDP on health services, but these are concentrated on curative rather than preventive public health measures; life expectancy is estimated at 45 years and infant mortality at 30 per thousand births. 9. Djibouti's heavy reliance on expatriate administrators and technicians is a reflection of the country's underdeveloped human resource base. The literacy rate is only 9 percent, and the primary, secondary and high-level enrollment ratios are estimated at 40 percent, 10 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. 10. The economy suffered a decline in the years immediately after independence in June 1977, reinforced by the outbreak of hostilities between neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia. In 1979 Djibouti started to  - 3 - recover as the result of increased investment, especially in the construction sector and commercial sectors. Coupled with increased capital expenditures by the public sector, these developments contributed toward an estimated average growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.4 percent per annum in 1979-81. However, since 1982 growth has been much lower. Real per capita GDP has been on a downward trend since independence, partly as the result of immigration from neighboring countries. This movement, together with the steady entry into the labor market of school leavers, has tended to intensify the problem of unemployment in recent years. 11. Djibouti's fiscal performance following independence was reasonably satisfactory up to 1981. Surpluses, averaging 4.1 percent of GDP per annum during 1979-81, were invested abroad, which resulted in the accrual of relatively substantial investment income. However, in 1982 financial imbalances began to emerge in the operations of the public sector, reflecting partly the slowdown of economic growth but also a reduction in the rate of collection of direct taxes and broad exemptions granted under the investment code. At the same time, expenditures rose from 46 percent of GDP in 1981 to 56 percent of GDP in 1982. This reflected largely an increase in investment expenditures, but also the inclusion for the first time of the expenditures for the national army in the budget, while foreign grants earmarked to cover defense expenditures were reduced; there was also a noticeable rise in subsidies to public and semipublic enterprises. As a result of these developments, the Government's transactions recorded a deficit equivalent to 8.4 percent of GDP. The deterioration in the Central Government's operations was compounded by a pronounced drop in foreign grants from DF 11.2 billion in 1981 to DF 7.9 billion in 1982. The estimated deficit for 1983 of DF 5.0 million (7.6 percent of GDP) represents only a marginal improvement over the performance in 1982, despite a substantial reduction in expenditures by 12.3 percent, as foreign grants continued to decline to about DF 4.8 billion. In order to finance the overall deficits, deposits with domestic and foreign banks were drawn down and loans negotiated. 12. Since independence, the Government has fostered the creation of public and semipublic enterprises to provide social and economic services in various fields, particularly where private sector participation was nonexistent or deemed inadequate. The combined financial accounts of these enterprises showed modest operating surpluses up to 1980, but they have incurred losses since then. These losses were partly the result of a deliberate government policy of not permitting price adjustments to reflect fully the increases in costs of specific goods and services, e.g., wheat flour and port services. 13. Up to 1981 Djibouti's balance of payments was characterized by large balance of trade deficits that were more than offset by the sum of net receipts on services and official unrequited transfers. As a result overall surpluses were realized, and official net foreign exchange reserves reached a peak in early 1982 equivalent to about SDR 84.5 million, corresponding to some six months of imports. In 1982, exports (most of which are re-exports to foreigners stationed in Djibouti) fell by 8.5 percent, mainly as a consequence of the reduction in purchasing power of these foreigners. Meanwhile, total imports remain essentially unchanged, so imports not destined for re-export increased sharply from  - 4 - about 24.5 percent to 30.5 percent of GDP. This increase reflected partly the rise in investment-related imports of capital goods, as well as the strong effective appreciation of the Djibouti franc. At the same time, net receipts from services and official transfers declined sharply, and the current account turned from a surplus amounting to 4.1 percent of GDP in 1981 to a deficit of 12.4 percent of GDP in 1982. The deficit was financed by drawing on foreign loans and an inflow of private capital, and the overall balance of payments remained in surplus. However, in 1983 the continued financial imbalances in the public sector led to an overall balance of payments deficit of SDR 17.2 million, as drawings on foreign loans slowed and the flow of private capital was reversed. 14. Monetary developments during the period 1979-81 mainly reflected favorable developments in the balance of payments and in the substantial external budgetary support, with increasing net foreign assets of both the Treasury and the commercial banks; credit to the private sector grew at 13.0 percent. In 1982 this pattern was broken as Government deposits with the commercial banks declined and net foreign assets fell. Money growth accelerated to 23 percent as growth in credit to the private sector continued at a rate of about 40 percent despite the slowdown in economic activity. The rate of inflation, measured by changes in consumer prices for expatriates and dominated by the development of import prices and exchange rate movements, declined from 5.6 percent in 1981 to -2.4 percent in 1982 but rose again in 1983 to at least 1.0 percent. 15. The public and publicly guaranteed external debt of Djibouti is still small and consists mostly of concessionary loans; at the end of 1982 outstanding disbursed debt amounted to SDR 36.3 million or 11.3 percent of GDP, with a debt service equivalent to 2.4 percent of exports of goods, services, and private transfers. However, the debt service ratio is likely to at least double by 1987, as the grace period of recently contracted loans begins to expire. Planning and Aid Coordination 16. The main concern of the authorities is to achieve a satisfactory and sustainable rate of growth. Given the very limited natural and human resources of the country and its unique location, recourse to an open economy, driven by an active private service sector, is a logical choice. However, the services sector, which is very sensitive to external shocks, has so far not been able to generate a sustainable rate of growth or to generate enough foreign exchange to meet growing import expenditures. Therefore, a redirection of efforts is made towards a broadening of the economic base (small scale industry, fishing, transport, livestock and even agriculture), while trying to improve the performance of the service sector. 17. Although Djibouti has only a nominal planning institution (the General Directorate of Planning, attached to the Presidency) an informal system, based on ad-hoc commissions, was quite effective in organizing, with the help of UNDP and the Bank, a Donors' Conference which took place in November 1983. The Conference was aimed at broadening international support to the country and at reversing the trend of declining concessionary assistance. A five year investment program was proposed to  - 5 - the Conference which was well organized and efficiently run. The main objective of the program is to correct the structural weaknesses of the economy through particular efforts in diversification, development of human resources, and the continuing build up of essential infrastructure. The size of the proposed program was US$570 million, of which US$20 million was to be financed from domestic resources and US$240 million had already been secured. Out of the remaining US$310 million, US$230 million was apparently secured at the Conference, although some sectors have apparently been over-financed. In addition, there were a number of pledges for increased technical assistance, which the Government considers critical, given its past absorptive capacity problems. The Government has just constituted a new "Comite de Surveillance", which will be in charge of managing the secured investment financing. PART II - WORLD BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN DJIBOUTI 18. Djibouti joined the Bank and the Association on October 2, 1980. The Bank Group assistance strategy is aimed at helping to strengthen the country's economic management and development institutions, meet the basic needs of some of the poorest parts of the population, develop natural resources such as geothermal energy and improve human resources training. 19. The proposed Geothermal Exploration project would be the third Bank Group operation in the country, after the US$3.0 million credit for a Technical Assistance project, approved by the Board on April 20, 1982, and the US$6.4 million credit for a Highway Maintenance project signed in January 1983. The Technical Assistance project, cofinanced with a parallel contribution of US$1.46 million from UNDP, is designed to improve the Government's capabilities to formulate an appropriate development strategy, to coordinate development efforts and to engage in planning, project preparation and monitoring. The project provides two long-term advisors to the Planning Directorate and one to the Statistics Directorate. In addition to training, equipment and vehicles, it also finances a Project Preparation and Sector Studies Fund to conduct background and feasibility studies necessary to design and implement a development strategy. The planning component of the project will now be attached to the planning unit in Finance due to difficulties of leadership in the Planning Directorate. The Highway Maintenance project is now effective and a Bank mission visited Djibouti in December 1983 to assist with its start-up. 20. Discussions between the Government and the Bank regarding the preparation of an Urban Development project began in 1981, following which the Government commissioned a feasibility study for a program of investments in the urban sector financed by an IDA Project Preparation Facility of US$500,000. The project, which has been appraised, would focus on the introduction of viable urban investments, simplified procedures for the transfer of title and the provision of building permits and the strengthening of urban institutions to establish a means for the Government to continue to improve the basic living conditions in the city of Djibouti. Government has also asked for Bank assistance in the education sector. An Education Sector Memorandum has been prepared. Based on its findings and on a UNESCO preparation mission, a proposed Human Resources project will be appraised in March 1984. The project will address mainly the quality improvement and expansion of primary education.  - 6 - 21. The Bank participated in the Donors Conference of November 1983 where the Government presented its investment program for the period 1984-88. A technical secretariat to the "Comite de Surveillance" of the Donors Conference will be established with the task of monitoring the overall evolution of the Djiboutian economy, and of preparing and monitoring the projects for which financing has been obtained. To strengthen this secretariat, the Bank has proposed to assign to it the project economist and the macroeconomist of the Technical Assistance Project. Assistance of outside consultants financed by the Studies Fund will also be provided. PART III - THE ENERGY SECTOR Resource Base, Supply, and Demand 22. Due to the lack of any developed energy resources, Djibouti is currently relying exclusively on petroleum imports to meet its commercial energy requirements. The country's hydropower potential is nil due to the absence of permanent rivers. The geology is not favorable to hydrocarbon accumulation, and forests are almost nonexistent. Solar and wind energy resources are considered significant but remain untapped; their potential is currently being evaluated (para. 27). Djibouti's most immediate hope of improving its energy balance lies in the use of its geothermal energy resources which appear significant but are yet to be developed. 23. The country's total internal energy consumption has grown by about 6 percent per annum over the last six years and reached about 70,000 TOE in 1982 (essentially petroleum products); per capita energy consumption was 215 kg of oil equivalent, relatively high by African standards, due to Djibouti's important expatriate community. The estimated breakdown of final energy demand is estimated as follows: residential: 28 percent; transport: 66 percent; and industry and commerce: 6 percent. Imports of petroleum products totalled about 2.6 MMB (million barrels) in 1982, of which only 19 percent were consumed internally (or US$15 million, accounting for about 8 percent of the country's net imports), the difference representing bunkering and aviation sales. 24. Gross electric consumption rose by 8.8 percent on average in the last four years and reached 106 Gwh in 1982 (i.e., about 320 kWh per capita), of which 92 percent was concentrated in the city of Djibouti; growth over the next ten years is forecast at about 10 percent per annum, which reflects the repressed demand of past years when inadequate generation facilities were unable to fully satisfy demand. Total installed capacity is currently 36 MW (exclusively small diesel groups, some of which are 20 years old) and is to be increased to 66 MW by the end of 1984 with the commissioning of two new 15 MW diesel groups (para. 27); Djibouti's long-term power development plan shows requirements for increments in capacity of 15-20 MW every 3-4 years (taking into account the retirement of old equipment), with the next increment due by 1988. There are about 14,000 power customers in the country, and it is estimated that less than 25 percent of the population has access to electricity.  Sector Institutions, Policies and Issues 25. Responsibility for making energy policy lies primarily with the Ministry of Industrial Development, which oversees Electricite de Djibouti (EDD), the local state-owned power utility, and Etablissement Public des Hydrocarbures (EPH), the public agency in charge of regulating the importation and distribution of hydrocarbon products by three foreign oil companies. In addition, the Institut Superieur d'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques et Techniques (ISERST), an autonomous agency reporting directly to the Presidency but working in close collaboration with the Ministry of Industrial Development, is responsible for the promotion and development of geothermal and renewable energies through its Earth Sciences Department (para. 31). Domestic energy prices are set by the Ministry and enforced by EDD and EPH respectively. The current institutional set-up for the sector is considered adequate. 26. Prices. Overall, Government policy for energy prices is sound. Prices for international sales of hydrocarbon products (bunkering and jet refueling) are unregulated; domestic retail prices have been regulated since 1980, but are higher than border prices as a result of local sales taxes and duties as shown below: Unit Prices (US$/gal) as of November 1, 1983 Retail CIF Djibouti Gasoline (premium) 2.87 0.94 Gasoline (regular) 2.55 0.93 Kerosene 1.23 0.89 Diesel oil 1.45 0.87 Fuel oil (EDD) 1.08 0.66 Taxes and duties have, however, been lower on kerosene than on other fuels, as the Government has used two grants from Saudi Arabia (totalling about US$10 million over 1980-83) to reduce net taxation on kerosene and to a lesser extent on diesel oil, primarily for social considerations. No further external funding is expected for such a purpose beyond 1983 and the Government intends to review the existing price structure in 1984. Average electricity tariffs range from USc19 per kWh for residential use to USc16 for industrial customers, reflecting the high cost of operating and maintaining EDD's largely obsolete generating equipment, and its exclusive reliance on diesel-based generation. Following the recent completion of a tariff study undertaken by EDD with the assistance of Electricite de France (EDF), a new tariff structure based on the principles of marginal costing is to be put into effect in the course of 1984. 27. Investments. Total proposed investment in the energy sector for the 1983-87 period is about US$67 million (current prices), with the power sector accounting for 67 percent of this figure, geothermal energy (including the proposed project) for 26 percent and renewable energies for 7 percent. Proposed power investments include the expansion of the existing power station with the installation of two 15 MW diesel groups and related distribution and sub-transmission works, under financing from  -8- French bilateral aid, the Islamic Development Bank, and the OPEC Fund. Investments in the geothermal sub-sector would include the proposed exploration project as well as an office building for ISERST for which external financing is being sought. Finally, ISERST, assisted by US consultants, has been carrying out since 1982 a program for the promotion of renewable energies (primarily solar and wind) with a US$4 million grant from USAID; as part of this program, an overall energy assessment of the country is to be completed by mid-1984. Geothermal Potential and Status of Exploration 28. Djibouti is located on one branch of the Red Sea/East African rift zone and is characterized by high heat flow, abundant thermal springs and fumaroles and an intense history of volcanism (continuing in the Assal area); in addition, many areas are undergoing crustal extension and fracturing. These conditions allow for heat transfer by both the continued upwelling of magma and the deep convective circulation of water within the fractured rocks into areas of very high temperature. Where fracturing has been intense, the necessary conditions of permeability necessary for steam/fluid accumulation may be found. Given these characteristics, the overall potential for discovering commercial geothermal resources in Djibouti can be rated as favorable, with only Kenya and Ethiopia having possibly more attractive prospects in Africa. There is a good probability that at least 100 MW, and perhaps more, of commercial electric power capacity may be sustained during the next 30-50 years by the country's geothermal resources. 29. Exploration was started in 1971 by Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Miniares (BRGM) in the Lake Assal area, at a time when Djibouti was still a French territory; work in this area culminated with the drilling in 1975 of two deep wells (about 1,000 m), which encountered high temperatures (230-260 C) but could not be fully tested because of budgetary constraints. Full tests were later run in 1981 by BRGM, under UNDP funding, and showed one well to be non-productive while the other produced an excessively saline fluid (130g/1) and eventually plugged itself due to severe scaling problems. 30. Reconnaissance work was also carried out after independence in other areas of the country by Aquater (of the ENI group) and Geotermica Italiana (a private consulting firm), under partial funding from the Italian Government. With the exception of the Lake Assal area, which is the only area in the country where deep drilling has taken place, the best-known prospects are Hanle/Gaggade, followed by Arta; both areas have been covered by electrical resistivity surveys; in the Hanle/Gaggade area, a temperature gradient well (450 m) was drilled and a gravity survey and tectonic analysis have been performed on the Hanle graben in 1983. Other areas, explored to a lesser degree, are Lake Abbe and North Ghoubet. Institutional Framework for Geothermal Exploration and Development 31. ISERST. The Government entity responsible for all aspects of geothermal exploration and development in the country is ISERST, an autonomous agency created in 1979 whose funding has been obtained from  public budget allocations and bilateral sources; its budget for 1983 was about US$1 million. ISERST's Earth Sciences Department, which is specifically responsible for geothermal energy, also carries out the country's geological mapping, performs hydrological analyses, and oversees the Arta seismological laboratory. ISERST's two other departments are respectively in charge of research in forestry, agriculture and fishery (Life Sciences), and sociological, ethnological and archeological studies (Human Sciences). The Earth Sciences Department's staff includes six local geologists/geophysicists and four French experts (for geological mapping and hydrology), none of whom has specific experience in geothermal exploration. ISERST has, however, benefited from the services of geothermal experts financed by France and Italy on an ad hoc basis over the last four years. Also, meetings of a selected group of some 15 international experts in geothermy (called the International Scientific Council) has been convened on various occasions (the last time in October 1983) to advise ISERST on matters relating to geothermal exploration. 32. Although ISERST is soundly managed, its Manager will not be able to devote all his time to geothermal activities and will be assisted by an expatriate geothermal project manager, hired under the proposed project, who will coordinate all aspects of geothermal exploration as the head of a special Project Unit within ISERST's Earth Sciences Department. In addition, ISERST's staff will be trained in geothermal matters both on the job by the project engineering firm and through formal courses abroad as part of the project (para. 41). ISERST, with the help of consultants, has prepared a detailed training program. Training activities would include, inter alia, scholarships at Italian universities and attendance at special technical seminars and short-term courses organized by Italian geothermal firms, under bilateral Italian financing, as well as attendance at selected conferences and courses in other countries, under UNDP financing (para. 46). 33. The Ministry of Industry has been fostering a close association of EDD in the making of policy for geothermal exploration/development as it will have direct responsibility for the production of electricity from any field developed by ISERST. Collaboration between ISERST and EDD has been very good and is expected to continue. The Government and ISERST would agree that, in case of discovery, ISERST's geothermal assets would be ultimately transferred to EDD under appropriate financial terms and that appropriate arrangements would be made at that time for the transfer of qualified local geothermal staff from ISERST to EDD when geothermal power production is started (Section 3.02 (a), draft Development Credit Agreement). The Government would also agree to ensure that the cost of geothermal exploration and development investments would be recovered through EDD's tariffs once production is on stream (Section 3.02 (b), draft Development Credit Agreement). Government Objectives and Strategy for Future Geothermal Exploration and Development 34. The Government's major objective in the energy sector is to reduce the country's dependence on imported fuel. In light of the favorable conditions for the discovery of commercial geothermal resources in Djibouti, the favorable economics for their development (para. 50), and the lack of other viable indigenous sources of energy, the Government has  - 10 - rightfully given a high priority to its geothermal program. However, the production of electricity represents for the time-being the only economically viable option for the use of geothermal energy in Djibouti, although industrial use on a minor scale may prove feasible in the longer term, e.g., for salt extraction or processing of minerals (diatomite and perlite). In addition, the forecast increment in domestic power demand is not expected to exceed 30 MW over the next decade, whereas an average geothermal field by international standards is capable of sustaining about 50 MW for 30 years, when fully developed. The Government has thus decided to concentrate its exploration efforts in one area at a time, due to the small size and concentration of the domestic power market which will not accommodate the development of two simultaneous discoveries. 35. The Government, with the help of its consultants, has carefully evaluated and ranked the country's prospects by assessing results of past exploration and taking into account considerations of accessibility and proximity to the power market. This analysis, with which the Bank agreed, showed that the Assal discovery could not, in all likelihood, be developed on a commercial basis due to the costly investments required to correct the technical problems previously encountered (para. 29) and that the Hanle/Gaggade area should be considered as the priority prospect for the initiation of deep exploratory drilling. In the future, the Government intends to pursue a sequential approach, as follows: (a) a program of two gradient wells on the Hanle graben and complementary surface exploration (detailed geology, geochemistry, gravity and electrical resistivity surveys) on the Gaggade sub-area would be carried out, so as to determine the most appropriate deep drilling sites; (b) a program of four deep exploratory wells would be initiated on the basis of this selection while sufficient flexibility would be preserved to permit the necessary adjustments in site selection and drilling program which might be required as more data becomes available during the course of exploration; at the same time, provisions would be made to discontinue the work in case of discouraging results; and (c) in case of commercial discovery, all available resources would be concentrated on the development and ultimately, production of the prospect. If the Hanle/Gaggade area does not warrant development, the Government would refocus its exploration efforts on one of the alternative areas (para. 30) and would, if appropriate, devise a new exploration program for it. Assal could also be reconsidered at that time if new techniques are developed in coming years which would enable the tackling of salinity and scaling problems in a cost effective way.  - 11 - Steps (a) and (b) would be the object of the proposed project. This strategy, which will enable the Government to minimize its investments in expensive drilling operations, while avoiding lengthy disruptions in its exploration program, has been endorsed by potential co-financiers and deserves full IDA support. 36. Although possible in theory, private sector involvement in geothermal exploration (as in the Philippines) cannot be realistically expected in the case of Djibouti due to the small size of the power market and the country's current economic situation. This is confirmed by the lack of industry response to a promotion effort carried out recently in the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) under the Bank's auspices, in spite of a more attractive environment. IDA's role should thus be to assist the Government in mobilizing adequate financing for geothermal exploration from bilateral and multilateral agencies. IDA's Role 37. Although involved at a relatively late stage in the sector, IDA has already made some important contributions during project preparation and appraisal. In particular it has helped: (i) to improve project design by revising the scope of the Government's original project proposal which was overdimensioned and too open-ended; (ii) to update and confirm the preliminary economic justification of geothermal-based power, and (iii) to mobilize additional cofinancing and structure an appropriate project financing plan by ensuring that the constraints of bilateral aid were properly weighed against the need for efficient project management and operations. More generally, IDA's future role in the sector should be: (a) to support the Government's objectives to reduce its dependence on imported fuel by exploring and developing indigenous sources of energy, thereby ensuring significant savings in foreign exchange; (b) to help the Government formulate and apply a consistent strategy for geothermal exploration along the lines described above (para. 35); (c) to bring the proper emphasis to local staff development and promote an efficient and business-like management of sector institutions; and (d) to ensure that the project is carried out efficiently through frequent and close project supervision. 38. The Government has requested that the project include studies which EDD would need to undertake during project execution, in order to evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of incorporating geothermal power generation into its overall system (para. 41). These studies will lead to an updating of EDD's least-cost expansion plan and would thus provide IDA with a first opportunity to review power planning methodology.  - 12 - This, and the commissioning of the two new diesel groups (para. 27), is expected to result in significant improvements in Djibouti's power system efficiency. In addition, the Government has also indicated that it expects IDA to support a possible follow-up project (geothermal field development and, possibly, power generation/transmission). This would provide an opportunity for IDA to help EDD improve further plant efficiency and power system planning. PART IV - THE PROJECT 39. The proposed project was appraised in June 1983, jointly with the OPEC Fund and the Italian Government. Negotiations were held in Washington in April 1984. The Djiboutian delegation was headed by H.E. Fahmi El Hag, Minister of Industry and Industrial Development. A Credit and Project Summary appears at the beginning of this report, and a Supplementary Project Data Sheet is given in Annex III. No Staff Appraisal Report has been prepared. Project Objectives 40. The project's main objective would be to explore the country's only known source of mineral energy. It would seek to prove commercially exploitable geothermal reserves. In addition it would strengthen ISERST, the country's geothermal research institute, through appropriate technical assistance, and enable it to take a more active role in geothermal exploration and development operations. EDD would be provided with assistance preparatory to incorporating geothermal power production facilities into its system. Project Description 41. The project would consist of: (a) drilling in the Hanle/Gaggade area, including: (i) a program of two temperature gradient wells (about 450 m deep) in the Hanle graben, with necessary geological and temperature logging, and (ii) up to four production-size exploratory wells (each about 2,000 m deep); (b) complementary surface exploration in the Gaggade sub-area, including: (i) detailed geology, geochemistry, gravity, electrical resistivity, and possibly magnetotelluric surveys if this is justified; and (ii) studies to integrate data and determine possible alternative drilling sites; (c) technical assistance to ISERST, including: (i) consulting services for further project preparation (drafting of TOR's and bidding documents, and preparation of a training program);  - 13 - (ii) services of an expatriate geothermal project manager for ISERST, to be hired for a three-year period; (iii) engineering services for the supervision of the deep drilling operations and the carrying out of specialized services (logging, testing, reservoir studies, etc.); (iv) training of ISERST staff in Djibouti and abroad; (v) purchase of specialized geothermal equipment to be used during project execution; (vi) office equipment and vehicles; and (vii) external audits of ISERST's accounts (para. 49); and (d) detailed power studies to be undertaken by EDD during project execution, in order to determine the technical and economic feasibility of incorporating geothermal power into its overall system (para. 50). 42. The Hanle/Gaggade prospect consists of two grabens located on each side of a NW-SE trending horst (Babalaou massif) which are considered to form part of one single geological unit. The prospectivity of the Hanle/Gaggade area is supported by gas geochemistry and geothermometry analyses which suggest that temperatures over 200 C may be attained at drillable depths, as a result of heat produced by regional crustal fracturing (rather than the presence of a magmatic heat source). This is very similar to the conditions prevailing in the Basin and Range areas of the western U.S., where large geothermal fields are being put in production. The extensive geochemical analyses which were carried out by Italian consultants in the area also suggest that any fluid found in this area is unlikely to present the salinity and scaling problems which characterize Assal (para. 29). In addition, Hanle/Gaggade is one of the most accessible zones in Djibouti, being located near a paved road. Deep drilling of the area is therefore fully justified. The proposed temperature gradient wells are required to locate deep drilling sites and design the optimal drilling program. A program of four deep wells is considered technically necessary to fully explore the area, although the possibility of discontinuing drilling would be provided for in case of discouraging results. Project Implementation 43. ISERST would have overall responsibility for implementation of the project; however, given its limited operational experience, ISERST's staff would need to be strengthened by one full-time expatriate serving as geothermal project manager, who has already been selected, and would receive assistance from the geothermal engineering and consulting firms involved in the project. The deep drilling operations would be carried out by an experienced foreign drilling contractor while ISERST would entrust the day to day supervision of the drilling operations, the procurement of consumable drilling materials, and related specialized services to an experienced geothermal engineering firm which is expected to be hired by June 1984. This firm would also provide on-the-job training to ISERST's staff. The gradient drilling on Hanle and the complementary surface works on Gaggade would be carried out by experienced geothermal contractors/engineering firms. The role of the expatriate project manager  - 14 - will be crucial, particularly in light of the need to coordinate the activities carried out under the separate contracts financed by the various cofinanciers. The role of the International Scientific Council (para. 31) would be that of a general advisory body, to be called upon only when important policy questions are discussed (e.g., assessment of a discovery, design of a field development program); it would not interfere with the immediate management of the project, as this would only create confusion and costly delays. Appropriate environmental and safety criteria would be applied during drilling operations. The impact on the environment during subsequent field development and production would be minimized, possibly by reinjecting the waste fluid into the ground. However, no major environmental impact is expected since the Hanle area is desertic, uninhabited and currently unsuitable for agriculture. 44. Temperature gradient drilling on Hanle is expected to start in July 1984 and would be completed by October 1984. Complementary surface exploration works in Gaggade would start by early 1984 and would be completed by December 1984. Deep drilling could start by the beginning of 1985 (taking into account the time required for mobilization and site preparation) and would be completed by June 1987, allowing time for testing and moving between locations, as well as final tests and reservoir engineering studies. Given the particularly difficult local environment, drilling time is estimated at about three months per well (2,000 m deep). Water for drilling would come from existing and to-be-drilled water wells in the area. Project Cost 45. The total cost of the project, net of duties and taxes, is estimated at US$16.6 million, with a foreign cost of US$14.9 million (90 percent). The cost of gradient drilling has been estimated on the basis of informal quotes received from several contractors. The cost estimate for the deep wells is based on drilling costs of US$15,000 per day (including materials and supplies); US$1 million for rig mobilization/demobilization; US$1.3 million for drilling supervision and logging services; and US$0.9 million for testing and reservoir studies (1983 prices). Those estimates are in line with current market rates. Total cost estimates include physical contingencies of 20 percent for drilling costs and 10 percent for all other components. Price contingencies of 3.5 percent for 1984, 8.0 percent for 1985 and 9 percent for both 1986 and 1987 have been applied for the foreign and local cost components. Financing Plan 46. The proposed IDA Credit of USS6.0 million equivalent would cover the foreign cost of: the gradient drilling program on Hanle (under a PPF advance already approved) the drilling contractor's services and 20 percent of the consumable materials for the drilling program, possible magnetotellurics in the Gaggade sub-area; and external audits of ISERST. A UNDP grant of US$1.0 million would finance the services of the Geothermal Project Manager; training of ISERST staff abroad; and the power studies to be undertaken by EDD. A grant of US$4.4 million made by the Italian Government will cover the cost of: project preparation (already carried  - 15 - out); the engineering and specialized services for the deep drilling program; the rest of the technical assistance to ISERST (training, specialized and office equipment, and vehicles); and detailed geology geochemistry, gravity and electrical resistivity surveys on Gaggade. Additional financing is to be provided by a US$1.0 million loan made by the OPEC Fund (17 years including 5 years grace period, 1 percent service charge) and a US$2.5 million AfDF credit from the African Development Bank (BAD), both of which would cofinance with IDA the consumable materials for the deep drilling program. The Italian grant will be provided on a parallel basis. The OPEC Fund and the BAD financing would be joint with IDA. The Government would also agree to contribute an aggregate amount of at least US$1.7 million equivalent towards the cost of the project, about equal to the estimated local cost component. The BAD credit is expected to be formally approved in July 1984. Arrangements for cross-effectiveness with other cofinanciers have been provided (Section 5.01 (b), draft Development Credit Agreement). The project financing plan can be summarized as follows: IDA UNDP Italy BAD OPEC Govt. Total Deep drilling 5.4 - - 2.5 1.0 1.7 10.6 Gradient drilling on Hanle 0.5 - - - - - 0.5 Complement. Works on Gaggade 0.1 - 0.4 - - - 0.5 Technical assist. to ISERST: (i) Project preparation & engin. services - - 2.9 - - - 2.9 (ii) Project manager - 0.6 - - - - 0.6 (iii) Training - 0.2 0.4 - - - 0.6 (iv) Equipment - - 0.7 - - - 0.7 Power studies - 0.2 - - - - 0.2 6.0 1.0 4.4 2.5 1.0 1.7 16.6 47. The proposed Credit would be made on standard IDA terms and passed on to ISERST and EDD as grants (Section 3.01 (b), draft Development Credit Agreement). Acceptable arrangements would be made for the future transfer of ISERST's geothermal assets to EDD under appropriate financial terms, and the recovery of exploration and development investments (para. 33). Procurement and Disbursement 48. The contracts for gradient drilling (about US$500,000) and deep drilling (about US$6.2 million) would be awarded following ICB and consumable drilling materials (about US$4.4 million) would be procured following LIT, in accordance with IDA guidelines (Schedule 1, draft Project Agreement). The firms in charge of carrying out the geology, geochemistry, gravity and electrical resistivity surveys on Gaggade and of supervising the deep drilling operations would be selected by the Italian Government with terms of reference reviewed beforehand by IDA. Hiring of the contrac- tors in charge of the gradient drilling program and the complementary surface exploration works, and selection of the engineering firm for the supervision of the deep drilling program would be conditions of Credit effectiveness (Section 5.01, draft Development Credit Agreement). INSERST would agree to submit to IDA a proposed location and detailed drilling  - 16 - program for each deep well before it is spudded; IDA approval of the first two deep well sites would also be required before spudding of the first well (Section 2.01 (b) (ii), draft Project Agreement). Credit disburse- ments would be fully documented and would be for 100 percent of foreign expenditures for goods and services financed by IDA except for audit services for which all of the cost would be financed. Disbursements are projected on the basis of the Bank's experience with similar projects in the region and the project's own characteristics, given the absence of a standard disbursement profile for Djibouti (no fully disbursed credit yet). The Credit is expected to be fully disbursed by December 31, 1986. Accounting, Auditing and Reporting 49. ISERST keeps its accounts in accordance with Government accounting standards and publishes annual statements. It will hire external auditors acceptable to IDA to audit its 1983 financial statements and to make recommendations as to the changes that may be needed in its system of accounts in order to accommodate future large expenses under the project. It also intends to strengthen its current accounting/administrative staff to that effect. ISERST would agree to maintain its overall financial statements as well as separate project accounts in accordance with sound accounting principles and to have them audited yearly by independent auditors acceptable to IDA. The auditor's reports would be submitted to IDA within four months of the end of each fiscal year, starting with 1983 (Section 4.02 (b), draft Project Agreement). External audits for 1983 through 1986 would be financed under the proposed Credit. ISERST would submit both quarterly and annual reports on project implementation in a format acceptable to IDA, as well as a project completion report no later than six months after the closing date of the Credit (Section 2.05 (b) (i) and (d) (i), draft Project Agreement). Project Justification 50. Since the existing data on Hanle/Gaggade does not permit estimating even a range of reserves with reasonable accuracy (this can only be done after deep drilling), it is not possible to provide a thorough economic analysis of the proposed project. However, a preliminary comparison was made between a theoretical geothermal-based project at Hanle/Gaggade (using conservative assumptions for well productivity and success ratio and taking into account the investments necessary for field development, construction of a 21 MW power plant and a 160 km transmission line to the city of Djibouti) and an equivalent diesel-based plant, the only feasible alternative within Djibouti's power development plan (para. 24). The comparison (see detailed assumptions and calculations in Annex V) shows a definite cost advantage to geothermal-based power, with average incremental costs (including exploration and development drilling) ranging from USc8.6 to USc9.8 per kWh (excluding distribution costs), vs UScd0.7 to UScI2.6 per kWh for the diesel-based alternative. It also shows that such a geothermal-based project would generate expected savings of between US$32 and 45 million (1983 prices) or almost two and three times the cost of the proposed exploration project, respectively. This analysis is considered sufficient to justify the initiation of a deep exploratory drilling program at Hanle/Gaggade. However, more detailed economic and  - 17 - technical feasibility studies will need to be undertaken during the course of the exploration program as more information becomes available on the technical characteristics of the prospect. Their financing would be provided under the UNDP grant (para. 46) and EDD initiate them as soon as two wells have been shown to be productive (Section 2.01 (d), draft Project Agreement). Upon project completion, all existing data will then need to be integrated into a revised power system development plan in order to optimize the field development program and the design of generation and transmission facilities. ISERST should agree to consult with IDA on its proposals for any such future field development, in light of the results of the above studies (Section 2.01 (e), draft Project Agreement). Project Benefits and Risks 51. The immediate expected benefit from the project is the proving of commercial geothermal reserves in the Hanle/Gaggade area. When developed, these reserves would contribute to reducing the country's current exclusive reliance on imported fuels to satisfy its energy needs. Another benefit from the project would be to prepare local entities (ISERST and EDD) to take an active role in future geothermal exploration, development and production. The main risk associated with the project is that insufficient reserves will be found, or that their characteristics (in terms of temperature or chemical composition) will be such as to prevent development and production on an economical basis. However, given Djibouti's overall prospectivity and the current data on the Hanle/Gaggade area, technical experts have estimated the probability that none of the four exploratory wells could be economically put into production at no more than 30 percent and it is believed that this risk is outweighed by the potential benefits associated with a commercial discovery. Preliminary calculations have shown the net present value of expected savings associated with a geothermal exploration/production project (assuming conservative drilling success ratios) as compared to a diesel-based power project, to range from US$32 to US$45 million, almost twice and three times the estimated cost of the proposed exploration investment, respectively (para. 50). PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 52. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Djibouti and the Association, the draft Project Agreement among the Association and Institut Superieur d'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques et Techniques and Electricite de Djibouti, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. Special conditions of the credit are listed in Section III of Annex III to this Report. 53. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association.  - 18 - PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 54. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen President 4 Attachments Washington, D.C. May 7, 1984 I  - 19 - ANNEX I T A B L E 3A page 1 of 6 DJIBOLTI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET DJIBOTI1 REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES) /a MOST (MOST RECENT LSrIMATE) /b RECENT MIDDLEI INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 19bO-/ 1970/lb ESTIMATAL AFRICA S. OF SAiLARA N. AFRICA 6 t11 EAST AREA (THOUSAND SQ. DI) TOTAL 22.0 22.0 22.0 AGRICULTURAL 2.5 2.5 2.5 GNIP PER CAPITA (US$) * * 480.0 1147.9 1340.0 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (RILOGRAMS OF COAL EQLIVALENT) 352.0 6718.0 2143.0 724.2 blU.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION,MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 81.0 160.0 380.9 URBAN POPULATION (Z OF IOTAL) 49.6 62.0 73.7 28.5 47.4 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATlON IN YCAR 2000 (MILL) U.b STATIONARY PUPULATION (MILL) YEAR STATIONARY POP. REACHED POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. t31. 3.7 7.3 16.0 56.5 36.o PER SQ. KM. AGRI. LAND 33.1 65.3 143.7 131.8 449.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (Z) 0-14 YRS .. .. .. 45.9 43.9 15-b4 YRS .. .. .. 51.2 52.B 65 AND ABOVE .. ,. .. 2.8 3.3 POPULArION GROWIH RATE (I) TOTAL 2.7 6.8 7.9/c 2.6 2.9 URBAN .. 9.0 9.6 5.3 4.6 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUS) .. .. .. 47.6 42.5 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUS) .. .. .. 15.2 12.0 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. .. .. 3.2 3.0 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (TIOUS) USERS (Z OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PROD. FPR CAPITA (1969-71=100) .. .. .. 95.7 97.5 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (Z OF REQUIREMENTS) .. .. .. 97.1 102.3 PROTEINS (GRA0 S PER DAY) .. .. .. 5B.0 72.0 OF WlICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. .. .. 17.2 17.8 CHILD (AGES 1-4) DEATH RATE 23.0 16.0 1O.u 23.6 15.2 NFALTD LIFE EXPECT. AT BIR8IH (YEARS) .. .. 45.0/d 51.9 57.2 INFANT MORT. RATE (PER THOUS) 69.1 32.6 30.0/e 117.6 104.2 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (%POP) TOTAL .. .. 43.0/d 25.4 59.3 URBAN .. .. 53.07d 70.5 84.9 RURAL .. .. 20.07W 12.3 37.5 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (Z OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 6230.U 3640.0 4300.0/f 12181.6 3536.0 POP. PER NURSING PERSON .. 600.0 610.07T 2292.0 1820.7 POP. PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 120.0 170.0 260.0/f 1075.4 643.3 URBAN .. .. .. 402.3 545.0 RURAL .. .. .. 3926.7 2462.0 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 16.5 13.7/f *- 26.4 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECT. (Z OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 46.2 URBAN .. .. .. .. 77.6 RURAL .. .. .. .. 16.1  - 20 - ANNEX I page 2 of 6 T A B L E 3A DJIBOUTI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET DJIBOUTI REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHITED AVERAGES) /a MOST (MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960-b 1970b- ESTI?ATEL-/