Jordan - Fifth Education Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3464-JO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$18.8 MILLION TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT February 24, 1983 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not olberwise be disclosed without World Banki authortzstion.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1982 December 1982 Currency Unit Jordan dinar (JD) JD US $1.00 = JD 0.35 0.35 JD 1.000 = US$2.82 2.84 Exchange rate used in the Appraisal Report JDI=US$2.89 Fiscal Year = Calendar Year ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS MOE Ministry of Education NPC National Planning Council ODA British Overseas Development Administration SFD Saudi Fund for Development VTC Vocational Training Corporation  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT Loan and Project Summary Borrower; The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Beneficiary: Ministry of Education (MOE) Amount: US$18.8 million equivalent Terms: 17 years, including four years of grace at the standard variable interest rate. Project Description: The major objectives of the project are to increase the output of skilled female and male workers and to improve access to secondary education in remote rural areas. In addition, the project would contribute to the institutional development of the MOE, already initiated under the earlier Bank-financed education projects. The project would include: (a) constructing, equipping, and furnishing of ten general vocational secondary schools for girls as well as five such vocational schools and three centralized secondary schools for boys; and (b) technical assistance for training instructors and directors, and for strengthening MOE programs of practical job experience, career guidance, manpower planning, project preparation and implementation. The main beneficiaries of the project are the secondary school age groups who will be better prepared for employment, and children from rural areas who will gain access to post-primary education. The project faces no special risks. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Estimated Cost: 1/ Local Foreign Total ------ Million------- Physical facilities (Construction, equipment, furniture and architectural services) 10 general vocational secondary schools for girls 10.8 11.8 22.6 5 general vocational secondary schools for boys 10.4 11.3 21.7 3 centralized secondary schools for boys 9.7 9.2 18.9 Technical assistance Specialists and Fellowships 0.1 0.9 1.0 Base cost 31.0 33.2 64.2 Contingencies Physical 3.1 3.3 6.4 Price 9.3 9.0 18.3 Total Contingencies 12.4 12.3 24.7 Total Cost 43.4 45.5 88.9 Financing Plan: Government of Jordan 31.6 13.2 44.8 Proposed World Bank Loan - 18.8 18.8 Saudi Fund for Development 11.8 10.3 22.1 British Overseas Development Administration - 3.2 3.2 Total Financing 43.4 45.5 88.9 1/ The project is exempt from taxes and duties.  - iii - Estimated Disbursements: Bank FY 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 ---------------$ Milli-on------------- Annual 0.77 5.48 9.08 2.37 1.10 Cumulative 0.77 6.25 15.33 17.70 18.80 Staff Appraisal Report: No. 4180-JO, dated February 14, 1983.   INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IBRD TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Bank loan, to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, of US$18.8 million equivalent to help finance a Fifth Education Project. The loan would be for a 17 year period, including 4 years of grace at the standard variable interest rate. The Saudi Fund for Development and the British Overseas Development Administration would participate in the project financing with loans of about US$22.1 million and about US$3.2 million equivalent, respectively. The balance would be provided by the Government of Jordan. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "Country Economic Memorandum on Jordan" (No. 3135-JO, dated December 24, 1980) was distributed to the Executive Directors in January 1981. An economic mission visited the country in October 1981; its findings have been included in the present text. Country data sheets are attached as Annex 1. 3. Jordan is a country of 2.4 million people (East Bank) with limited natural resources and a traditionally service and trade-oriented economy. It has enjoyed a high rate of growth and made good progress in diversifying commodity production, increasing investment, and promoting exports. This economic performance has taken place in the context of increasing trade with neighboring countries and expanding inflow of remittances from Jordanians working abroad, foreign aid and capital. As a result, employment is high and foreign exchange reserves have been steadily rising. Recent Economic Developments 4. Renewed stability following the disruptions of 1967-71 created a climate conducive to sustained economic growth during 1975-81, resulting in an average annual growth of GDP of about 11 percent in real terms. This growth was in sharp contrast with that during 1971-75, which was slightly negative. 1/ Substantially unchanged from Part I of the President's Report for the Zarqa/Ruseifa Water Supply and Sewerage Loan which was distributed to the Executive Directors on November 15, 1982.  - 2 - In 1981, GNP per capita reached $1,623. The upsurge of the economy was due to: (a) the rapid growth of the mining and manufacturing sectors; (b) the sharp increase in construction, particularly in housing and large public works; and (c) favorable external factors including influx of Lebanese business activity and booming conditions in the Gulf countries. In agriculture, rainfed production was sharply reduced by a severe drought during the 1976-79 period and more recently in 1981, but vegetable and fruit production in the irrigated areas increased significantly. 5. The overall balance of payments remains strong despite a chronic deficit in merchandise trade. Exports of goods and non-factor services increased by 32 percent annually at current prices from 1975 to 1981. This growth was due to high demand and prices for fruits and vegetables in neighboring countries, booming exports of manufactured goods and a sharp increase in receipts from tourism and other non-factor services. Jordanian goods have been able to compete successfully in Middle East markets because of the advantages of Arab Common Market and bilateral agreements, relatively good quality of the products, enterprising marketing and the favorable geographical location. Although the growth in the volume of imports was slower than that of exports, the resource gap increased in current terms from $560 million in 1975 to about $2,318 million in 1981. These trade deficits, however, were fully compensated by factor income and transfers from abroad. As a result, Government-guaranteed external borrowing remained within reasonable limits and borrowing on commercial terms was reduced to a modest level (para. 15). 6. Expenditure and domestic revenue of the Government both increased at a rate of about 23 percent per annum through 1976-81. The overall budget deficit, was tempered by a sharp increase in grants from Arab countries following the Baghdad Summit Conference in 1978. Current expenditures, excluding defense, were covered by domestic revenues. Defense expenditures were largely financed by foreign assistance. 7. The main concerns of monetary policy have been mobilizing savings and controlling domestic liquidity. Private savings have improved markedly, but public savings have continued to be negative because of the high level of defense expenditures, largely financed by foreign grants. To promote domestic savings, greater discretion is being allowed to the Central Bank in adjusting interest rates and banking commissions. Increases in deposit rates were effected and have resulted in savings deposits increasing faster than money supply. Between 1975 and 1981, domestic inflation, measured by the cost of living index, increased by an annual average rate of 11.6 percent. 8. A diversified banking system capable of meeting the financial requirements of fast economic growth was developed during the last decade. The banking system now includes 16 commercial banks and 6 specialized credit and investment institutions. The Amman Stock Exchange, established in 1978, has become an active institution, and the Securities Corporation, created with IFC assistance, is growing in strength. The liberal transfer policy recently followed by the Central Bank has encouraged growth of the financial system, and Amman has started to emerge as an international financial center.  -3- Medium-Term Prospects 9. The current Plan (1981-85) aims at maintaining the rate of growth of the economy close to that achieved during the previous plan. In terms of the investment program, the plan is ambitious--total investment would be maintained at 33-35 percent of GNP, 53 percent of which is by the Government. The announced strategy is to pursue the objectives of the last decade of economic planning in Jordan, namely to: (a) reduce the heavy dependence on external assistance; (b) diversify the economy by increasing commodity production; (c) reduce the budget deficit; and (d) improve the distribution of the benefits of growth. 10. Medium-term economic projections indicate that rapid GDP growth, about 10 percent annually, can be maintained during the current Plan period. Because of an expected slowdown in factor income from abroad, GNP is projected to grow at a slightly lower rate of 8.5 percent per year. However, full implementation of the Plan's investment program is a key assumption underlying these growth rates. Industrial growth will benefit from the completion of a number of major projects such as potash and fertilizer now at initial stages of production and would maintain an overall average annual growth rate of about 17 percent, peaking in 1983 and 1984. Barring serious disruptions in agricultural output through unfavorable weather conditions, Jordan would realize a significant increase in the share of commodity producing sectors in total domestic output and thus correspondingly reduce its traditional dependence on the services sector. 11. The medium-term prospects for increasing exports are promising. The completion of the major export-oriented industrial projects, together with the enterprise displayed by the private sector, should result in significant increases in foreign exchange earnings after 1982. In agriculture, the expected increase in vegetable and fruit exports will, however, be more than offset by growing imports of food, and the agricultural trade deficit would probably increase. Even though total exports are projected to maintain a high rate of increase (19 percent p.a. at constant prices) while imports would grow at a significantly lower rate, the trade deficit could continue to increase and could exceed the two billion dollar mark by 1985. In relation to GNP, however, the resource gap is expected to show a significant further decline (from 46% to 40%). Unlike the recent experience, net workers' remittances and foreign grants may not be sufficient to meet the growing trade deficit. Jordan would therefore have to rely more on external borrowing (para. 16). 12. Savings from private sources, particularly from workers abroad, should continue to increase, helped by the expanding banking network. A further reduction of the budget deficit can also be expected. Through cuts mainly in fuel subsidies the Government is likely to attain almost 90 percent coverage of current budget expenditures by domestic revenues in 1983. However, the demands for increased social expenditure and the need to raise wages to retain valuable public servants will make further cuts increasingly difficult.  -4- Social Issues 13. Due to the continuing migration of Jordanians to neighboring countries and the rapid economic growth, the present labor market situation has been characterized by selective manpower shortages. However, according to the Bank's manpower projections the demand and supply for labor in Jordan might become more balanced throughout this decade with even a possibility of an emerging surplus of certain categories of skilled professionals. In 1980, out of the approximately 800,000 Jordanians (including Palestinians from the West Bank) residing abroad, a little over 200,000 were estimated to be workers, compared to a total domestic employment of about 440,000. Domestic employment includes a rapidly growing number of foreign workers currently estimated at about 80,000 about half of whom are unskilled. The country has expanded its education and training system rapidly but still needs a comprehensive manpower and training plan to help ensure that: (a) the economy does not suffer from shortages of crucial skills, while meeting prospective demand for skilled workers abroad as far as possible; and (b) the potential labor force is utilized more fully--especially the seasonally idle workers in rainfed areas and women, whose participation, although growing fast, is still low. 14. Social issues are now an acknowledged concern of the Government and this new emphasis is to some extent reflected in the current Five-Year Plan (1981-85). Although the social indicators provide a relatively favorable reading in most sectors, social services are unevenly distributed across income groups and across provinces. Thus, while health infrastructure is adequate and life expectancy is relatively high (61 years), medical doctors are concentrated in urban centers. Housing remains a problem despite the boom in 1978-80, mainly because housing costs have far exceeded the means of the lower income groups. The Government's concern about these issues has led to the setting up of the new Ministry of Social Affairs in November 1979 to define a coherent social development program. External Assistance 15. Due to large foreign inflows of remittances and transfers, the current account of the balance of payments was on average in equilibrium through 1975-81, and the government-guaranteed external debt has remained well within manageable limits. Net workers' remittances increased from about $160 million in 1975 to about $880 million in 1981. Following the Baghdad Arab Summit Conference in November 1978, which pledged assistance of about $1.2 billion per year over a 10-year period, net foreign aid rose from about $400-500 million in 1977-78 to a record high of about $1.0 billion in 1979 and $1.3 billion in 1980 and 1981. The external public debt outstanding and disbursed reached $1.4 billion at the end of 1981; the outstanding debt to IDA was $78 million, and to IBRD, $45 million, ($85 million, and $90 million, respectively, when including undisbursed commitments). External debt service payments amounted to $182 million in 1981 or 5.7 percent of total exports of goods and services. 16. Jordan's impressive stability, pragmatic economic and social policies and efficient economic management have helped to attract large foreign  - 5 - assistance. The continuation of foreign economic assistance at the relatively high levels of recent years obviously depends on international and regional developments. Except for aid related to defense expenditures, the grant component of this foreign assistance is expected to decline over the next few years. The projections indicate a need for external commitments close to $4.5 billion each year over the 1981-85 period. About one-third of this borrowing is expected to be on concessional terms, significantly below the ratios achieved in recent years. While bilateral and multilateral sources can be expected to provide the bulk of external resources, Jordan is likely to resort increasingly to the financial markets, and this would result in a hardening of loan terms. On these assumptions, the debt service ratio as a percentage of exports of goods and services is projected not to exceed 10 percent by 1985. Beyond the current Plan period, sustaining the rise in debt and debt service at a prudent rate would require a slowdown in both the rate of investment and growth, particularly if foreign grants are gradually phased out. Given its record of prudent management, Jordan remains creditworthy for Bank lending. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 17. Jordan has received nine Bank loans totalling $202 million and fifteen IDA credits totalling $86.1 million (net of cancellations) of which thirteen credits have been fully disbursed. Project implementation and disbursement performance have been generally satisfactory. In recent years, disbursements have consistently amounted to about 75 - 80 percent of appraisal estimates. The IDA credits have financed projects in key sectors, such as education, highways, water supply and sewerage, power, irrigation and tourism. By mid-1978, Jordan had attained a stage of economic development where it could be considered creditworthy for Bank lending and had reached a GNP per capita level that exceeded IDA limits. IDA lending was thus discontinued after March 1978. IFC has made investments in Jordan with total commitments of $94.2 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits, and IFC investments as of September 30, 1982, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. Bank group assistance to Jordan has been directed toward export- oriented projects on which the Bank Group has cooperated closely with the Government in project preparation and in the mobilization of large external financial assistance. In addition, the Bank Group has been assisting the Government in implementing its social objectives of improving the income and living standards of the rural and urban poor, as well as expanding manpower training, as enunciated in the first Five-Year Plan (1976-80) and which is being given an greater emphasis in the second Five-Year Plan (1981-85). 19. In line with these objectives, the Bank Group has provided technical assistance for developing and implementing a plan for expanding phosphate rock mining, and for preparing a comprehensive program for a second phase of development of the agricultural potential of the Jordan Valley and for water supply based on the Maqarin Dam. An engineering credit was made in FY1975 to help prepare a large project for potash production from the Dead Sea via solar evaporation, for which a loan was approved by the Executive Directors in September 1978; the project has been successfully completed. In addition, further support for the Government's social and economic objectives was  - 6 - provided in recent years by loans for the Third and Fourth Education projects approved in December 1979 and December 1981, the Cities and Villages Development Bank (CVDB) project approved in March 1980, the Urban Development project approved in July 1980, the Fifth Power project approved in May 1982, and the Zarqa/Ruseifa Water Supply and Sewerage project approved in December 1982. 20. The Government has requested intensified assistance from the Bank to achieve the Plan objectives with respect to vocational and technical training in order to meet the manpower needs of the economy, and provision of secondary education in less developed regions. To continue to assist in this important sector, a sixth education project is under preparation for consideration in the next fiscal year. Projects are also under preparation in the urban, industry, transport, and water supply/sewerage sectors for consideration in this and subsequent fiscal years. 21. In a parallel effort at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels, the Bank assisted the Government by reviewing the 1981-85 Five-Year Plan, with emphasis on industrial sector and manpower analysis. It has also helped review the energy and urban sectors, regional development issues, as well as the export strategy and export promotion in manufacturing industries. The reports pertaining to these reviews are under preparation. 22. At the end of 1980, the actual Bank Group share in Jordan's total external public debt was estimated at 8 percent, and its share in debt service was 2 percent. By 1985, the Bank Group's shares in debt outstanding and in debt service are expected to be about 10 percent and 7 percent respectively. PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR Manpower Requirements of the Economy 23. In view of its sparse endowment of water, agricultural and mineral resources and its dependence on manufacturing and trade skills, Jordan rightly considers its relatively well-educated labor force to be its most important productive asset. This labor force has not only made possible Jordan's rapid growth performance during the past five years, but has also contributed through migration to the economies of the labor-importing Gulf states. Jordan exports a higher proportion of its labor force, particularly in the high skill occupations, than any of the other labor exporting countries in the region. The sizeable manpower outflow has led to shortages of certain skills in areas such as construction trades and finance. In return, it has provided significant benefits to Jordan in the form of remittances. In addition, labor exports have alleviated the pressure for job creation which would have normally been associated with Jordan's high population growth. Despite the rapid growth of employment (over 4 percent per year) since 1975, employment has not been able to keep up with the growth of the labor force (about 6 percent per year since 1975). According to the initial results of the 1979 census, the unemployment rate among Jordanians rose to 9 percent in that year in contrast to the 2 percent unemployment rate recorded earlier in the decade. Although the census figures, which are based on a sample survey, may overstate the true extent of unemployment, they provide useful information  about the characteristics of the unemployed. Indeed most of the unemployed are young and with limited education and skills. The Government's program of rapidly expanded vocational training aims to improve the prospects of young Jordanians, males and females, for employment both within and outside Jordan. 24. As part of its economic and sector work, the Bank recently assisted Jordan with manpower analysis and projections (up to 1990) based on a set of macroeconomic assumptions reflecting the most likely economic development. These indicate that a surplus may arise in certain professional skill areas while a deficit is likely to occur as far as skilled and semi-skilled workers are concerned. Because substantial demand will arise from the construction subsector, trades such as electrical work, mansonry and concrete, carpentry, heating, and plumbing are likely to be most required. The projected demand for skilled workers in agriculture is expected to be concentrated in the Jordan Valley, where the exploitation of recently discovered groundwater resources and the rapid expansion of drip irrigation and greenhouse agriculture, as well as a nascent agro-industry are generating a growing demand for skilled manpower. Female Participation 25. Although increasing, female participation in the labor force is still modest and varies widely by level of education. While post secondary graduates have a 70-80 percent participation rate, secondary graduates have only half that rate. Participation falls drastically at pre-secondary levels. The Government is focusing on nursing and business (commercial studies) as the areas offering the best prospects for female employment. Recent tracer study results confirm that, together with teaching, office work and nursing are the occupations most favored by girls and their parents. The projected growth in demand for workers with commercial skills arises from the continuing growth of civil service employment and employment in financial and other services in the private sector which are experiencing rapid growth. The projected growth in demand for skilled nursing manpower in the 1980s reflects the major improvements which the Government hopes to make in the quality, efficiency and coverage of health services. In this context, the Government plans to train 6,000 skilled nursing staff (assistant nurses) during the next 8 years, in vocational secondary schools for girls and in other facilities. The proposed project would assist in significantly expanding skill training for women. Education Policy 26. Past Progress. The Government pursues a policy of providing universal basic education and reorienting education and training to meet manpower needs. Progress in the overall development of the education system has been remarkable, especially over the past decade, and major strides have been made towards the goal of nine years of basic schooling (primary and preparatory levels) for all children. This is now fully achieved at the primary level and is close to being achieved at the preparatory level. Gross enrollments (including overaged students) at the primary, preparatory and secondary levels represent a high 108 percent, 91 percent and 66 percent of the relevant age groups. Female enrollments as a percentage of total  - 8 - enrollments (48 percent at the primary level, 46 percent and 43 percent at the preparatory and secondary levels, respectively), are among the highest in the Middle East. 27. The Government has been less successful in meeting its goals of expanding vocational training. An increase in enrollment of about 80 percent in vocational/technical courses was achieved in the late seventies. This, however, represents only 13 percent of total secondary enrollment, as against the Government's original target of 30 percent by 1980. Lack of facilities has been the principal cause of insufficent progress. The Government now aims to attain the target level by 1985. The 1981-85 Plan puts heavy emphasis on vocational training facilities and the Government has requested the World Bank to take the lead in preparing appropriate projects and to play a catalytic role in drawing other sources of assistance to the sector. The proposed project represents a significant step in that direction. 28. Current Objectives. The Government's main objectives in education and training as expressed in the Development Plan are (a) to expand basic education (grades 1-9) from 91 percent in 1980 to 94 percent in 1985, (b) to channel secondary-level students into vocational specializations so as to achieve 30 percent vocational secondary enrollments by 1985, (c) to reduce, by more than 20 percent by 1985, the proportion of illiterates among the population less than 60 years old, (d) to improve the quality of education through upgraded teacher qualifications, improved curricula and teaching materials, replacement of rented schools, and elimination of double shifting, and (e) to provide the trained manpower necessary to meet the evolving demand of the Jordanian economy and that of other Arab countries. A closely related goal is to expand labor-force participation, particularly by Jordanian women. These are reasonable and feasible educational goals. 29. Educational Finance. The Government has adopted an ambitious program of investment to expand education and training capacity at all levels. The Plan allocates about $700 million to implement priority projects in education and training, including university education. This expansion implies an increase in the recurrent costs of the education system. Between 1975 and 1979, the recurrent cost of public education under the Ministry of Education (MOE) increased at the rate of 11.6 percent per annum in real terms, compared to a 7.5 percent yearly increase in enrollment. The share of educational expendituire stabilized at around 11 percent of total public recurrent expenditure during 1975-79. Based on projected enrollment increases, recurrent expenditures in education in 1980-85 are estimated to increase by about 6 percent per annum to a total of about $157 million or about 9 percent of total public recurrent expenditure in 1985. Total recurrent and capital expenditures for education would amount to about $185 million in 1985 (in 1979 prices), which represents about 5 percent of the projected GNP and about 10 percent of the Government budget. The Government can be expected to sustain this expanded level of expenditure, in view of the high priority attached to education.  -9- Issues 30. Given the successful development of the basic education system, objectives in that area are likely to be attained on or ahead of schedule. The constraints are mostly in secondary education and, in particular, vocational/technical training. Government needs to expand vocational training and to encourage enrollment in vocational streams. The implementation of the education projects in the Plan would expand vocational facilities. However, care should be taken to ensure that the training in these facilities continues to be relevant to the job market. Key measures to that end would include supervised practical job experience as a complement to classroom and workshop training, continuous monitoring of changing employment prospects, and prompt feedback of information on job prospects into training. They would also include student guidance at the preparatory level based on employment prospects. The Ministry of Education (MOE) has recognized this and intends to replace the current practice with a better one based on the above measures. The proposed project would assist the Government in these efforts. Sector Institutions 31. The Ministry of Education (MOE) is responsible for formal education institutions and training which includes primary, preparatory, general and technical secondary, and post-secondary polytechnics and community colleges. The Ministry has developed good project implementation, supervision and maintenance capability and continues to strengthen its relevant departments. The universities are autonomous and governed by their own boards which are responsible for establishing general policy guidelines and determining each year the number of students to be admitted to the different faculties. A number of other Ministries, in particular the Ministry of Health and the Vocational Training Corporation (VTC), an autonomous government agency affiliated with the Ministry of Labor, are active in training related to their special fields. The VTC is responsible for the in-plant apprentice program conducted with the cooperation of employers and for a skill upgrading program. However, the expansions of VTC programs, although planned, are constrained because of the limited training capacity available with employers. Together with this, there is a vigorous effort in job-oriented training provided by the private sector. There are, for example, 20 private community colleges which offer post-secondary courses, principally in commercial specializations. Bank's Role in Education 32. The Bank has extended two credits ($5.4 million in 1972 and $6 million in 1975) and two loans ($19 million in 1979 and $25 million in 1981) for education projects. The first and second IDA-financed projects are completed. The implementation of the third Bank-financed project is underway and the loan is largely committed. Construction of the trade training center and design work on other institutions are progressing under the fourth project. These projects were designed to assist Jordan in improving the quality of education, providing basic education to all relevant age groups, establishing appropriate manpower training and increasing vocational training opportunities for women. Institution building has been a prominent feature of the Bank's operations. The planning and project implementation capabilities of the Ministry of Education were vastly expanded. The Ministry is now  - 10 - approaching the capability of handling all of its school construction programs with minimum external assistance. The above projects have also assisted the establishment and refinement of the comprehensive secondary school curriculum. In addition, they have contributed to the alignment of technical/vocational programs with the labor market. These projects have also introduced modern evaluation systems for the various schools and institutions. A system to trace the placement of graduates of the project institutions was also developed and is operational. The third project was particularly useful in improving the planning and management capablility of the MOE by providing a research and evaluation mechanism and a computerized management information system to be used as tools for planning and modern management. 33. The Project Performance Audit Report (No. 2494, Sec.M79-336) on the first project noted the institutional impact of the project in many areas, including educational planning, and concluded that the project was justified and worthwhile. The recommendations of the Report have been adopted, including improved procurement procedures, better coordination of technical assistance, more effective scheduling of required inputs and timing of implementation, and more extended training in management and administration. 34. Following the improvements envisaged under the proposed project and under another follow-up project which is in preparation for FY1984, the Bank expects the institutional capability of the Ministry of Education to be sufficiently advanced to carry out various development programs on its own. PART IV - THE PROJECT Project History 35. The proposed project was identified in November 1981 and prepared by the Government in the first half of 1982 with Bank assistance. The project was appraised in June/July 1982. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. during January 31 - February 4, 1983. The Jordanian delegation was led by Mr. Nabil Sweis, Assistant Secretary-General, National Planning Council. A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "Fifth Education Project - Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan" (No. 4180-JO) dated February 14, 1983, is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. The main features of the loan and project are given in the Loan and Project Summary at the beginning of this Report and in Annex III. A map showing the project sites is attached. Project Objectives 36. The main objectives of the project are to increase the output of skilled female and male workers, which Jordan urgently needs, and to improve access to secondary education in remote rural areas. In addition, the project would contribute to the institutional development of the Ministry of Education, already started under the earlier projects in the areas of curriculum development, tracer studies and information management, through substantial strengthening of the Directorate of Projects and other directorates which participate in project preparation and implementation.  - 11 - Project Description 37. The project would include (i) construction, equipping and furnishing of 10 general vocational secondary schools (grades 10-12) for girls as well as five such vocational schools and three centralized secondary schools (grades 7-12) for boys; (ii) training of instructors and directors for the above project institutions; and (iii) fellowships and consultants services for the Ministry of Education to expand its job experience program, to reinforce and expand its career guidance program, to implement regional manpower planning t and tracer studies, and to further strengthen its Directorate of Projects. General Secondary Vocational Schools 38. This type of institution is being introduced under the Bank's previous education project (Loan 2068-JO). The vocational programs were each formerly provided in separate secondary schools for industry, commerce, agriculture and nursing. Administration and training will be more efficient, due to consolidation and more intensive and economic use of equipment and space. After school hours, classrooms will serve adult education and in-service teacher training. The general vocational secondary schools will offer the options of a three-year secondary course and two-year trade training course in specializations selected according to employment prospects. The 10 girls' schools (total enrollment of about 3,800) will offer three-year courses in business and nursing, and two-year courses in dressmaking and cosmetology. Tracer study results and other information show strong prospects for female employment in these professions. The smaller size and greater dispersion of the girls' schools is designed to facilitate attendance and employment closer to the girls' homes. A total of nine industrial specializations would be offered by the boys' schools (total enrollment about 3,900) in electrical utilization, industrial electronics, auto mechanics, instrumentation, central heating and plumbing, farm machinery, carpentry, welding and sheet metal, and construction. The training programs would be designed with due regard to the requirements of the regional economy. Three of the boys' schools will be situated in rural areas and will offer three-year agricultural programs focussing on plant production and food processing. By offering agricultural training in diversified vocational institutions in rural settings, the Government seeks to improve the quality and motivation of agricultural students, and to increase the likelihood that agricultural graduates will practice farming. Sites for all schools have been selected through a * comprehensive school mapping exercise which takes into account projected graduates from preparatory schools as well as intake capacity of other secondary schools in those areas. The sites for the schools are well distributed regionally, ranging from Irbid governorate in the North to Maan governorate in the South and covering both urban and rural areas. 39. 450 teachers are required for the vocational secondary schools. Jordan's teacher training facilities are able to provide these teachers. The general subject teachers would be recruited from the graduates of the University of Jordan, Yarmouk University, and the community colleges. The projected output from Marka Polytechnic under the Fourth Education Project, totalling 300 industrial teachers per year beginning in 1986, will be sufficient to meet the teacher requirements in the industrial specializations. Teachers for the nursing program in the girls' schools would  - 12 - be recruited from the graduates of the existing post-secondary nursing programs of the Ministry of Health, the University of Jordan and, beginning in 1986, the Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute which is being developed by the Ministry of Health under the Fourth Education Project. Teachers for the business specializations would be drawn from the University of Jordan, the teacher training institutes, and the several community colleges which offer courses in business, accounting, and commercial subjects. Teachers for the agricultural specialization would be recruited principally from the graduates of the Faculty of Agriculture program at the University of Jordan. Teachers for the dressmaking and cosmetology specializations in the girls' schools would be recruited from the students scheduled to receive training abroad in those specializations under the Fourth Education Project technical assistance component. In addition, technical assistance would be provided under the proposed project to send the chief instructors in each specialization on study visits or fellowships abroad to guide them in setting up the vocational programs. Institutional Measures and Technical Assistance 40. The General Vocational Secondary Schools will substantially expand the manpower training capacity of Jordan. However, the mere existence of these facilities is not sufficient for reaching the training goals. The rapid expansion of trained manpower will require additional efforts by the Government. The programs of the schools are closely geared to manpower projections based on evidence available from tracer studies, from the recent study of manpower demand (carried out as part of the Bank's review of the 1981-85 Development Plan) and from other sources. However, to ensure that the graduates of these programs continue to be readily employable, it is essential that students be provided with practical job experience as part of the secondary vocational education program and that employment prospects be continously monitored in order to provide prompt adjustment of programs, career guidance, and suitable allocation of students to available specializations. Accordingly, the proposed project includes technical assistance to the MOE for three important activities: (i) to expand and strengthen the limited program for practical work experience during school vacations (study visits and expert services); (ii) to strengthen career guidance and to extend it to the preparatory level as an input to selection of secondary vocational specializations (one fellowship); and (iii) to reinforce tracer study capacity and to develop regional manpower planning in the Ministry of Education for continuous monitoring of employment prospects (fellowships and expert services). In this connection, the Government has agreed to extend its practical experience program to all vocational secondary schools by the time the vocational schools in the project become operational (Loan Agreement, Section 3.05). It has also agreed to extend the existing * tracer study system to include the project schools and to provide the Bank with the results of these studies for five years following the first output of these schools, as well as to strengthen the existing tracer study capacity through the employment of a statistician experienced in survey methods and analysis by no later than December 31, 1983, (Loan Agreement, Section 4.03). To improve the process for allocating students to secondary school specializations, the Government would provide career guidance counseling for preparatory students by the time the vocational schools in the project become operational (Loan Agreement, Section 4.05). MOE is currently developing an  - 13 - aptitude test. It would exchange views with the Bank on this work and on the possible use of such tests in admitting students to the vocational secondary schools. Centralized Preparatory/Secondary Schools 41. The three new centralized schools for boys, combining preparatory (grades 7-9) and secondary (grades 10-12) education, support the Government's t effort to improve access to further education for graduates of primary schools in remote rural areas. These remote settlements are too small and too dispersed to justify separate post-primary schools. The proposed project schools which are to provide boarding facilities for students from distant settlements, will replace a number of inadequate preparatory and general secondary classrooms improvised in existing primary schools and will provide additional student places which will help bring the low level of enrollment in remote areas -- estimated at 70 percent in preparatory and 30 percent in secondary -- closer to the national average enrollment rates of 91 percent and 66 percent, respectively. Based on the experience of the centralized schools under the proposed project, the Government intends to establish additional centralized schools (including girls' schools) to serve other remote areas of the country. The curriculum for the proposed schools, which has been reviewed and approved by the National Board of Education and the Bank, would be the same as that used in all preparatory and general secondary schools. The preparatory curriculum includes two hours per week of pre-vocational activities (such as industry, agriculture, commerce) in which students are provided with a general vocational orientation through guided practical work in schools' vocational workshops. Similar pre-vocational/general programs have been successfully implemented under previous Bank-financed projects. 42. The locations (Irbid, Maan and Amman Governorates) and sizes of the proposed schools have been determined on the basis of a detailed school mapping exercise. Total enrollments in the three centralized schools, which are to operate on a double-shift basis, would be 2,520. Boarding facilities would be provided for the 1,260 students who would come from communities more than ten miles distant from the schools. The schools would require a total staff of 100 teachers, about half of whom will come from the classes to be discontinued in inadequate facilities. An adequate number of teachers are expected to be fully available from the graduate output of the community colleges and universities. Project Implementation 4 43. The project would be implemented by the Directorate of Projects of the Ministry of Education (MOE). The proposed project would reinforce MOE's implementation capacity by providing experts for layout of workshop equipment and preinvestment studies, as well as fellowships for upgrading staff in procurement procedures, preparation of visual aids for vocational instruction, development and application of standard architectural design elements, school location planning, and techniques of in-service and industrial education. In order to assist in the implementation of the project, the Government agreed to assign by December 31, 1983 to the Directorate of Projects, two procurement officers, two accountants, two quantity surveyors, an architect and a civil engineer (Loan Agreement, Section 3.02). The Government would provide the  - 14 - Bank with a final draft of the fellowship and expert recruitment program by end December 1983 and implement this program thereafter. All lana for project facilities has been acquired. Work on final equipment lists and specifications, togetner with architectural designs and bid documents for construction and equipment, is in progress and is scheduled to be finished by November 1983. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 1987. Accounts and Audit 44. The Directorate of Projects maintains separate accounts for earlier Bank-financed education projects and will also establish one for the proposed project. Maintenance of accounts for the earlier projects hias been orderly and systematic. Project accounts are audited annually by the Government's Audit Bureau which fulrills the Bank's requirements. As in the past, audit accounts would be submitted to the Bank in a timely manner. Project Cost and Financing Plan 45. The total project cost is estimated at about $89 million (base cost is calculated in mid-1982 prices) of which about $45 million (or about 50 percent of the total) is in foreign exchange. Cost breakdown by components is given in the Loan and Project Summary at the beginning of this report. Cost estimates exclude import duties and taxes. The project is exempt from these. Physical contingencies are estimated at about 10 percent of the base cost and price contingencies at about 26 percent of the base cost Increased by physical contingencies. Foreign exchange costs are estimated to increase 8 percent in 1982 and 1983, 7.5 percent in 1984, 7 percent in 1985 ancd b percent thereafter. Local costs are estimated to increase 9 percent in 1982 and 1983, 8 percent in 1984, 7 percent in 1985 and b percent thereafter. On the basis of recent experience, the cost of consultant services is estimated at about $11,000 per man-month for expatriates (20 man-montihs) and about $6,000 per man-month for local recruits (9 man-months). These amounts include salary, fee, overhead, international travel and subsistence. Overseas fellowship training (192 man-months) is estimated to cost $3500 per man-month, inclusive of international travel. As is the case with previous Bank-financed education projects, it is expected that about 60 percent of the construction contracts and all the furniture contracts would be awarded to local firms. Most equipment would be directly imported. 46. The proposed loan of $18.8 millioni would finance the foreign exchange costs of: (a) constructing, furnishing and equipping the boys' centralized secondary schools; (b) equipping the girls' vocational secondary schools; (c) architectural services; and (d) technical assistance. It would cover about 21 percent of the total estimated project cost. The baudi Fund is expected to finance the construction costs of 8 vocational secondary schools amounting to about $22 million equivalent. Due to the magnitude of the Saudi Fund contribution, signing of a loan agreement between the Government and the Saudi Fund would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed loan (Loan Agreement, Section 6.01). The British Overseas Development Agency is expected to finance the equipment needed for the vocational secondary schools for boys, amounting to about $3 million equivalent. The Government would finance all remaining costs.  - 15 - Recurrent Cost of the Project 47. When fully operational, the project institutions are estimated to require about $3.5 million annually in incremental recurrent costs, including the cost of expendable materials for the general vocational secondary schools. This would correspond to less than one percent of the projected recurrent expenditures on education in that year. Procurement and Disbursement 48. Civil works (about $10 million), furniture (about $1 million) and equipment (about $6 million) to be financed by the Bank would be procured through international competitive bidding under the Bank guidelines. Contracts for goods estimated to cost less than $100,000 and which cannot be bulked for ICB and items of a specialized nature for which ICB would not be appropriate, would be procured under government procedures which are satisfactory to the Bank and would include, to the extent possible, quotations from at least three manufacturers or suppliers. The aggregate value of such contracts would not exceed $1.6 million. In the comparison of bids obtained under ICB, local manufacturers would be allowed a margin of preference equal to the existing rate of customs duties applicable to competing imports or 15 percent of the CIF price, whichever is lower. 49. The proposed loan would be disbursed against 47 percent of expendi- ture on civil works; 100 percent of foreign expenditures on directly imported equipment and furniture, 100 percent of local expenditures ex-factory for locally manufactured equipment and furniture, and 85 percent of local expenditures on locally procured imported equipment and furniture; 10 percent of expenditures on architectural services and 90 percent of expenditures on technical assistance and fellowships. In order to expedite preparation of architectural designs for the project, design contracts for all schools have been awarded and awards were won by local consultants. Retroactive financing of $300,000 is recommended to cover expenditures for such consultant services incurred after July 31, 1982. The closing date of the proposed loan is June 30, 1988. Benefits and Risks 50. Given its large-scale skill exports and rapid economic development Jordan rightly attaches a very high priority to manpower training. Having S achieved an impressive record in providing basic education to its entire population the Government now concentrates on improving secondary training, which requires urgent construction of facilities, and improvements in the * operation of relevant programs. The 7,780 places to be provided by the proposed project vocational schools would play a key role in achieving the Government's quantitative goal for expanding secondary vocational education. Together with the increased capacity which will be available following completion of the secondary vocational components of the third and fourth Bank-financed education projects, they would comprise about 52 percent of the projected increase in secondary vocational enrollments by 1987 -- from 17,242 in 1981/82 to 44,000 in 1987/88. At the same time, they would contribute to a doubling of the vocational share of secondary enrollments, from 16 percent in 1981/82 to 32 percent in 1987/88. In relation to current vocational enrollments, the greatest gains would be made in the area of expanded female  - 16 - vocational instruction. The Government is also concerned with providing preparatory and secondary educational opportunties to the inhabitants of remote rural areas. The centralized schools would be a step towards solving this problem in a cost effective manner. The Government intends to build similar schools in other regions and also for girls. Experience gained under the proposed project would be invaluable for this purpose. Technical assistance provided under the proposed project would further strengthen the MOE's implementation capability. It would also ensure that the vocational facilities fully serve their objectives. The project does not entail any unusual risks. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 51. The draft Loan Agreement between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Bank, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distributea separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. Signing of a loan agreement for about $22 million equivalent between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Saudi Fund for Development is a condition of effectiveness of the proposed loan. 52. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 53. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. A. W. Clausen President by Ernest Stern Attachments February 24, 1983 Washington, D.C.  - 17 - ANNEX I Page 1 of 6 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET JORDAN REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAG, AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - TOTAL 97.7 MIDDLE INCOME AGRlCULTURAL 14.7 MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN GNP PER CAPITA (USS) .. 380.0 1420.0/ 1253.6 1902.0 1NERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 183.7 269.2 522.3 713.5 1259.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 1695.0 2299.0 3244.0 1 URBAN POPFLATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 42.7 49.6 56.3 47.3 65.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 5.8 STATIONARY POPLLAT1ON (MILLIONS) 12.6 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2085 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 17.3 23.5 32.0 35.8 35.2 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LANI' 132.4 163.6 212.7 420.9 92.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) u-14 YRS. 44.4 45.8 46.5 44.3 39.7 15-64 YES. 51.5 51.0 50.8 52.4 56.1 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 4.1 3.1 2.7 3.3 4.2 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 3.1 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 URBAN 5.2/c 4.5 4.7 4.6 3.8 CRUDE BIRTH HATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.4 47.6 44.4 41.2 31.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSANR) 19.9 15.5 9.7 12.2 8.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.1 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 220.0 79.0 106.0 100.4 110.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 93.2 67.3 61.6/d 108.5 108.4 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 60.9 40.2 40.3rd 71.9 66.0 UF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 14.6 10.7 11.0/d 18.0 34.0 CHILI (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 26.3 12.4 5.8 15.1 5.6 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 47.0 54.1 61.2 56.9 64.2 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 135.5 97.5 69.3 104.3 64.2 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCEST OF POPULATION) TOTAL 21.3 * 61.0/c 59.1 65.6 URBAN 48.6 .. 66.c0 83.1 78.9 RUKAL 2.1 . . 50.0o7 39.8 43.9 ACCESS TO EXCRETE VISPOSAL (PERCENT SF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 59.3 URBAN .. .. .. .. 75.3 q sCCUR .. .. .. .. 30.0 POPULATION PES PHYSICIAN 5804.7 3775.0 1956.4 4015.5 1617.3 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 1930.2/e 1477.5 821.0 1802.2 1063.5 POPLLATION PEk HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 557.0 1351.5 1186.8/d 641.7 477.4 HURBAN . . 1097.6 687.2 d 538.3 679.8 RURAL . 5543.6 .. 2403.3 1903.4 ABMISSIONS PEE HObPITAL BED .. 36.5 45.7/d 25.5 27.3 AVTEAcE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOIAL 5.3 6.1 6.7/c URBAN 5.5 .. RURAL 5.1 .. AVLRAGE NUlbEc OF PERbONS PER ROOM ToIAL .. .. 6.5/c URBAN .. .. hkLAL .. .. ACCLSS Ti) ELELTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGC) IOTAL 17.0 . . 66.0/c RSBAt 39.2 .. 90.07. RURAL 1.4 .. 30.0 .  -18 - ANNEX I Page 2 of 6 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET JORDAN REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAG S - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - MIDDLE INCOME MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA b MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL /l 77.0 72.0/c 102.0/c 88.7 104.3 MALE 94.0 79.07` 106.07T 104.5 106.4 FEMALE 59.0 65.0/c 99.0/c 72.0 103.3 SECONDARY: TOTAL 25.0 33.0/c 74.0/c f 39.7 41.3 MALE 36.0 41.07T 81.07 49.3 40.4 FEMALE 13.0 24.Od7- 66.07 29.0 41.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (D OF SECONDARY) 2.7 3.0/c 13.0/c 10.1 33.7 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 34.1 38.8/c 32.2/c 34.1 29.9 SECONDARY 20.0 23. 07 20.6Th 23.7 16.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 32.4 .. 70.0 43.3 79.1 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THdOUSAND POPULATION 3.7 6.7 19.6/d 17.8 42.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 37.8 160.9 171.5 131.3 270.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 20.0 52.8 44.1 107.7 NEWSPAPER (-DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 18.3 24.4 29.3/d 31.5 63.7 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 3.0 0.9 4.0 1.7 2.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 432.3 568.6 768.9 FY4ALE (PERCENT) 5.0 5.6 6.5 10.6 24.4 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 44.0 34.0 20.0 42.4 31.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 26.0 9.0 20.0 27.8 23.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 25.5 24.7 23.7 26.0 33.6 MALE 46.7 45.5 43.4 46.2 50.4 FEMALE 2.7 2.8 3.1 5.6 16.8 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTLMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URMAN .. .. 230.0/d 279.2 RURAL .. .. 100.0/d 178.6 184.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 206.0/d 403.6 518.0 RURAL .. .. 135.0/d 285.6 371.1 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE. POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 14.0 22.1 RURAL .. .. 17.0 30.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1978 and 1980. /c East bank only; /d 1977; /e 1962; If Includes preparatory education ages 12-14 years. /1 1981 estimates given in paragraphs 26 and 41 of this report. May, 1982  AMI14EX r - 19 - Page 3of 6 OOPUNITIOWS OP SOIlu 155fId008 Retest AlnhanI. t- aaaedrm m sotr eeal cdt iens stoe-s o etbs ft easld slat be --te that thy , stbeoer esefoe1iy co.eparabl b -oss ot the look of Ctdodaicad dafiotot an Pot.et oad by -t1rve oatrs a coLiectiag the data. The dat r, as thad eac oafot to dascihe orders of idgitd, l-d t tretdn. 34 cbroctario-.I crrti , e loaifteace btaer. cotr.e Th. refer-c droops a- (1f cod e. ..ou.try &roty of the subect coc rysd (ll a country groop with s bnta igh-r avrage tn-. that the coory troop of the oIet,, co-ty saay for 'high I.to. 31.1 orriro gr 1obre 'Middle to-e forth Africa sad Middle last0 is cho-w becus of aitegar sajroy o te ocoris teaoo ro dco o0chr tnioc - hro . b r-vrec of -ottrias osag h.b d i diatr dand. on the tnafltblirp of data en1d ieotsifr,coit cch `roroedf Lroltlg Iaoia f o- lodicator rr -nt-. f. snua aeolytso tocoPriug the re-is of Totl. - Tota- eorfoc-on coycetg od or- jd ila-d -ton.cs; 1979dutuho,adraldidd by iter; resato use floetalbd aatttltua