Liberia - Fourth Education Project

Document of FILE The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3390-LBR REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$13.5 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA FOR A FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT November 11, 1982 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The official monetary unit is the Liberian dollar with a par value equal to the US dollar. The US dollar is legal tender in Liberia. FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB - African Development Bank AITB - Agricultural and Industrial Training Bureau CBDTC - Clerical, Business, and Domestic Training Center MOE - Ministry of Education PIU - Project Implementation Unit VTC - Vocational Training Center  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY LIBERIA Fourth Education Project Credit and Project Summary Borrower: The Republic of Liberia Amount: SDR 12.6 million (US$13.5 million) Terms: Standard Project Description: The project seeks to improve the quality and efficiency of primary education and to further expand access to primary schools through support for: (a) institutional development of the Ministry of Education; (b) a primary school development program to include establishment of a national textbook program, upgrading of 2,250 primary school teachers, streng- thening of the educational inspectorate, and construction, equipping, and furnishing of 24 new primary schools, and furnishing of 30 additional primary schools. The project would also: (a) strengthen the Agricultural and Industrial Training Bureau and the Vocational Training Center; and (b) establish a new commercial training center to consolidate the activities of three existing training programs. The improvements in primary education and skill training are expected to lead to more efficient allocation of resources, increases in skilled manpower, higher worker productivity, and greater employment opportunities for graduates. The project would also help the Government establish cost recovery procedures for several education and training programs. The main risks are (a) that the Ministry of Education's lack of experience in administering a textbook program will delay this major project component, and (b) that the educational supervision and teacher training and upgrading components may not be sufficiently coordinated with the textbook program. The project design addressed these risks through allowance for adequate technical assistance in key areas, detailed preparation prior to appraisal, and attention to experience gained from the three earlier education projects. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Costs l/ ------ (US$ million) ------- Local Foreign Total Institutional Development Planning & Administration 0.7 2.6 3.3 Tests & Measurement 0.1 0.6 0.7 Primary School Development Textbook Procurement & Distribution 0.1 2.8 2.9 Primary Teacher Training 0.2 1.9 2.1 Educational Su,pervision 0.3 0.8 1.1 School Construction & Furnishing 2.5 3.3 5.8 Skill Training Agricultural & Industrial Training Bureau/Monrovia Vocational Training Center 0.2 1.1 1.3 Commercial Training 0.7 1.8 2.5 Base Cost 4.8 14.9 19.7 Physical Contingencies 0.4 0.7 1.1 Price Contingencies 1.3 3.0 4.3 Total 6.5 18.6 25.1 Financing Plan: IDA 1.4 12.1 13.5 Government 1.5 .3 1.8 ADB 3.6 6.2 9.8 Total 6.5 18.6 25.1 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ million) IDA FY 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 Annual 1.3 2.3 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.4 .4 Cumulative 1.3 3.6 7.0 9.6 11.7 13.1 13.5 Project Completion Date: June 30, 1988 Staff Apprisal Report: 4010-LBR Map No.: IBRD No. 16544 1/ Net of taxes, from which the project is exempt.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA FOR A FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Republic of Liberia for the equivalent of SDR 12.6 million (US$13.5 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance a Fourth Education project. The project would be cofinanced by the African Development Bank which would provide a loan equivalent to about US$9.8 million, with a term of 20 years including five years grace, with interest at 10.5 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, entitled "Liberia: Current Economic Situation and Prospects" (No. 2662-LBR), was distributed to the Executive Directors on December 28, 1979. An economic mission visited Liberia in October 1981 to review the current economic situation and its report is in preparation; its principal findings are included in the following paragraphs. Country data are shown in Annex I. Structural Characteristics 3. The growth of Liberia's economy remains heavily dependent on the per- formance of the enclave sector, consisting mainly of: (a) iron ore mines, (b) rubber plantations, and (c) forestry concessions. These enclaves are the main source of export earnings. Iron ore mining is by far the largest single activity in the enclave sector, accounting for about one-third of gross domes- tic product at factor cost. There are only limited linkages between the en- claves and the rest of the economy; as a result, the benefits of economic growth have been unevenly distributed. 4. The income disparities between traditional agriculture and the (mone- tized) modern sector are a manifestation of structural imbalance in the eco- nomy. Traditional agriculture has minimal interaction with the rest of the economy; however, it supports the majority of the population - as much as 60 percent - who live at, or near, subsistence level. With a population of about 1.9 million, average per capita GNP in 1981 is estimated at US$540. While the enclave sector yields a per capita GNP of about US$1,620 compared to US$780 for the rest of the monetized economy, the great majority of the population 1/ This section is substantially unchanged from the President's Report for the Second Lofa County Agricultural Development Project (P-3266-LBR) of April 12, 1982.  who live in the traditional non-monetized sector have a per capita income of about US$185 per annum. Development Plan and General Economic Policy 5. After completing its first Four-Year Development Plan, Liberia has embarked upon preparation of a Second Plan. The first Plan was intended as the first of a series of multi-year investment programs aimed at meeting the basic, long-term objectives of Liberia's socio-economic development. These are: (a) diversification of production; (b) dispersion of sustainable socio- economic activities throughout the country; (c) greater involvement of Liberians in development activities; and (d) equitable distribution of the benefits of economic growth. Performance under the first Plan fell short of expectations. Investment in the productive sectors was below the original target, while one-fourth of total expenditure during the Plan period was for facilities and buildings for the Organization of African Unity (OAU) Confer- ence, which had not been included in the original Plan. 6. The new Government, which assumed power in April 1980, reaffirmed the broad objectives of the First Plan. Work had been initiated under the former Government on the preparation of the Second Plan (FY82-86) which is scheduled for completion shortly. The general economic policy statement issued by the Government of the People's Redemption Council on June 5, 1980 sets out the broad objectives of the present government. The main thrust of the economic policy is to expand the country's productive capacity, especially in agricul- ture, and tp ensure that benefits from economic growth and development are en- joyed by an increasing number of Liberians. To achieve this end, the Govern- ment intends to encourage local and foreign private investment and give prior- ity to labor-intensive investments. Significant measures taken by the new Government since its assumption of office include decisions to: (a) retain the Liberian dollar at par with the US dollar, which remains legal tender in Liberia; (b) honor all existing contractual agreements with foreign private investors and to change such agreements only through negotiations with all parties concerned; (c) permit the free flow of capital, goods and services; and (d) regulate labor relations by full protection of the rights of both workers and management. Recent Economic Developments 7. While strong world demand for Liberia's major export, iron ore, brought large gains from exports up to 1974, the subsequent recession in in- dustrialized countries significantly reduced demand for the country's most important export commodities--iron ore, rubber and timber. With growth per- formance continuing to be largely a function of enclave activities, growth of real GDP--which averaged about 6.3 percent a year in the 1967-70 period and 4.2 percent a year in the 1970-74 period--has slowed down significantly and is estimated to have been about 1.3 percent a year between 1974 and 1979. Eco- nomic performance in 1979 and the first quarter of 1980 had taken a turn for the better, but following the change in Government in April 1980 there was a setback in growth because of loss of confidence in the private sector, weak- nesses of Government policy and poor world market prospects for Liberia's  -3- principal exports. According to the preliminary estimates, real GDP declined by 4.7 percent in 1980 and 5.0 percent in 1981. 8. During 1974-78, mostly reflecting accelerated international infla- tion, imports rose by 14 percent annually, exceeding the 5 percent annual ex- port growth rate. However, a temporary resurgence in world prices of iron ore, timber and rubber helped Liberia to expand its exports by 10 percent in 1979 and 14 percent in 1980. But in 1981, exports declined by 12.0 percent. Oil imports increased from US$15 million in 1973 to US$130.0 million in 1981, or 27 percent of the country's total imports. But due to supressed real im- ports, Liberia achieved a trade surplus of US$51.8 million in 1981; the reduc- tion in imports has been due to the general deterioration in the economy fol- lowing the change in Government. The current account deficit, reflecting sub- stantial factor service payments, especially on investment income from enclave operations, increased to about US$160 million in 1978, or 24 percent of GDP, as compared to US$30 million in 1974, or 7 percent of GDP. The deficit has subsequently declined yearly to US$65.4 million in 1981 due to favorable trade balances. Current account deficits were financed mostly by private capital transactions, but in the last two years official capital inflows have risen substantially. 9. Liberia has had a long history of sound fiscal management and public sector resources did not come under undue pressure until the mid-1970s. Since 1974, the Government has been facing growing budgetary deficits. The-deficit in 1975 was only about US$4.0 million, but by FY1980 it had reached US$111 - million or 54 percent of government revenues. The strain on public sector finances intensified during 1979-80 and assumed serious proportions in the aftermath of the change in Government. The decline in public revenues, coupled with a decision to increase the salaries of low-paid military person- nel from $100 to $250 per month and the payment of pending bills from the OAU Conference, increased the overall budgetary deficit to $136 million in FY1981 (13 percent of GDP). The shortfall in revenues was caused largely by lower import duty collection and substantial tax evasion by self-employed indivi- duals, partnerships and corporations. The growing budgetary deficit since FY1980 and the serious liquidity crisis necessitated that the Government approach the IMF in May 1980 for assistance. Relations with the IMF 10. In July 1980 the new Government introduced a two-year stabilization program to be supported by a standby arrangement with the IMF. Major elements in the stabilization program included tighter fiscal policies and stricter control of the financial operations of the public corporations, increased mo- bilization of domestic revenues, revision of energy pricing policies, a freeze on wages and salaries of Government employees and elimination of consumer subsidies. Limits were placed on new borrowings with a maturity of one to twelve years and on credit to the Government and the public sector from the banking system. 11. By early 1981, the Government had introduced the necessary measures to revise tax rates and levy import surcharges. However, the overall deficit  -4- in FY81 was $136 million (62 percent of Government revenues), or $61 million higher than the original budget estimates. While revenue collection was higher by 8 percent as compared to the previous year, it fell short of the expected yields as a result of a decline in customs duties. There was also some increase in recurrent expenditures beyond budget estimates. This budgetary imbalance, lack of strict control on the operations of public corpo- rations, and the consumer subsidy on rice were some of the major issues addressed in the context of the second year of the stabilization program. To address them, the Government announced elimination of the consumer subsidy on rice; a new progressive national reconstruction tax on wages, salaries and self-employed income, and increased excise taxes on beer and gasoline. The Government also undertook to improve the financial viability of the public corporations. The IMF Board approved the program in August 1981 and made available SDR 55 million for the second year of the Standby Arrangement. At the end of the program, the overall fiscal deficit in FY81 /82 remained at $89 million, or 7.4 percent of GDP and, although external arrears were reduced by $10 million during 1981 /82, domestic arrears of the public sector continued at the same level of about $8 million as in the previous year. A renewed Standby Agreement and support from the Compensatory Financing Facility (CFF) were approved by the IMF Board at end September 1982. Under the program, SDR 27.7 million has been purchased from the CFF facility. SDR 55 million is available under the standby program of which SDR 5.0 million has already been pur- chased. Expenditure restraint and, in particular, a 15 percent reduction in recurrent expenditure, continues to be a principal objective of IMF assis- tance. Further drawings under the standby arrangement are conditional, among other things, on realization of expenditure reductions. A review of the program is scheduled for late November 1982. 12. Monthly payments for oil imports continue to create a serious liqui- dity problem on public sector finances as receipts generated abroad are not sufficient to meet oil payments and service the public sector's external debt. U.S. Government grants from the Economic Support Fund have up to now helped to ease the situation. Creditworthiness 13. Liberia's external public debt outstanding and disbursed was esti- mated at about US$537 million as of December 1980. The Bank Group share of the public debt outstanding and disbursed is presently about 15 percent and is expected to increase to about 24 percent by 1984. As a proportion of public debt servicing liability, the Bank Group's share is expected to increase from 14 percent to 18 percent over the same period. Debt service payments as a proportion of exports of goods and non-factor services were estimated at about 7 percent in 1980 as compared to 5.7 and 7.7 percent for 1972 and 1974 respec- tively. Public debt service payments as a percentage of Government revenues (a more meaningful indicator for Liberia which uses the US dollar as a medium of exchange) declined from about 24 percent in 1972 and 21 percent in 1974 to 16.5 percent in 1978, but has again gone up to 22 percent in 1980. This up- surge in the debt service ratio has occurred primarily as a result of short- maturity loans contracted by Liberia in the last few years to finance OAU- related expenditures and to meet the growing budgetary deficits. This  - 5 - increase in debt servicing obligations created severe pressures on Liberia's public finances. The Government therefore sought and obtained the assistance of the Paris Club in rescheduling its external public sector debt of US$32 million maturing during the period July 1980 to December 1981; the rescheduled debt is to be repaid over 9 years, including four years of grace. In December 1981 further relief was requested and Liberia obtained an 18-month extension, with extension from October 1, 1982 to June 30, 1983 subject to renewal of the standby agreement with the IMF when it expired in September 1982. This condi- tion has now been satisfied. In addition, an agreement with the London Club to refinance a private bank syndicated loan of about US$27 million is expected to be concluded in November. 14. Assuming a continuation of the recent rate of growth in public reve- nues and exports (10 percent and 5 percent per annum, respectively) Liberia's debt service ratio is estimated to increase to about 33 percent of public rev- enues and 12 percent of exports by 1985; should there be an improvement in the country's economic prospects over the next few years, the debt service ratio would be somewhat lower (around 29 percent) by 1985. Although the movement in world prices of Liberia's main export commodities in 1981 was not particularly favorable, the growth in export earnings is projected to be higher in subse- quent years as a result of the likely strengthening in demand for rubber and timber and, to a lesser extent, iron ore and an increase in iron ore prices. Forecasts for natural rubber and log prices indicate a consistently upward movement, and Liberia may expect higher yields from the recently replanted acreage and new planting of rubber. Other ongoing agriculture projects (par- ticularly for coffee, cocoa, palm oil), and successful exploration and devel- opment of other mining resources, including gold and barite, will help diver- sify the economy and should result in an acceleration in the rate of growth of exports during the next three to four years. Public revenues will benefit from these increased export earnings. However, these prospects are clearly contingent upon the successful implementation of a number of policy measures over the next few years, e.g., a continued reduction in the size of the Government budget deficit, further restraint on new commercial borrowings and public sector credit expansion, increased mobilization of public savings, maintenance of the traditional openness of the economy, appropriate pricing and tariff policies, revival of-investor confidence, inflow of new private investment and improvement in the coordination of overall economic manage- ment. Although Liberia has acute short-term liquidity problems, restoration of growth and stability is feasible, provided the Government is able and willing to pursue the right course. 15. In recent years Bank group lending to Liberia has been a blend of IDA credits and Bank loans; in view of the country's relatively low per capita in- come and high public debt service liability, continued IDA assistance is jus- tified.  - 6 - PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN LIBERIA 1/ 16. As of September 30, 1982 the Bank had approved 22 loans (including one Third Window loan) for projects in Liberia totalling US$155.77 million; there have been 11 IDA credits totalling US$73.46 million, and one technical assistance grant of US$200,000 for development planning. IFC has made two equity investments totalling US$556,000 in the share capital of the Liberian Bank for Development and Investment (LBDI). The Bank Group assistance has financed roads, agricultural development, power, education, water supply, in- dustry and mining, small enterprises, and petroleum pre-exploration. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits, and IFC investments as of September 30, 1982 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects as of September 30, 1982. 17. Bank Group disbursements for projects in Liberia increased steadily from FY78 to FY81 when disbursements were equivalent to 26 percent of credits and loans outstanding at the beginning of that fiscal year. This performance was made possible by close coordination with the budgetary authorities, which consistently earmarked sufficient counterpart resources to Bank Group sup- ported projects in Liberia. In spite of its continued commitment to such pro- jects, the Government is now experiencing considerable difficulty in providing counterpart resources because of the sharp deterioration in public finances discussed in Part I of this report. Close monitoring of project implementa- tion and continued coordination with the budgetary authorities should avoid excessive delays in implementation due to lack of counterpart resources. How- ever, the Government's present resource position is being taken into account in structuring new projects: their size is being limited to essentials and as much foreign financing as possible is being provided so as to reduce the need for Government contributions. 18. The objectives of Bank Group operations are: (a) to help Liberians take greater initiative in developing their own resources for the benefit of their people; (b) to support policies and programs leading to a broader dis- tribution of the benefits of economic growth; (c) to help the Government broaden the economic base and overcome infrastructural constraints to growth; and (d) to assist the Government in mobilizing development resources from other external agencies. In furthering these objectives, particular attention is being paid to (a) the need to expand the supply of trained manpower, and (b) measures to strengthen and improve the operations and finances of the pub- lic corporations in Liberia. 19. In support of the objectives of raising the standard of living of lower income groups and broadening the productive base, the Bank Group lending program emphasizes agriculture and rural development. The Bank Group is 1/ This section is substantially unchanged from the President's Report for the Second Lofa County Agricultural Development Project (P-3266-LBR) of April 12, 1982.  -7- currently financing two agricultural projects: phase one in Bong County and phase two in Lofa County (not yet effective). These projects are designed to (a) assist subsistence farmers to expand their production base and to increase their productivity and income through the provision of support services and infrastructure, and (b) to help diversify the country's export and revenue base. A rubber project, co-financed with the Commonwealth Development Corpo- ration (CDC), is designed to expand exports and increase the productivity and incomes of small and medium size farmers. A forestry project which the Bank is co-financing with the African Development Bank (ADB) and the German Agency for Technical Cooperation, seeks to strengthen the Government's forest ser- vice, initiate an industrial plantation program, and help Liberia better man- age and exploit its forestry resources. An oil palm project, co-financed by the ADB and the CDC, would help expand and diversify the country's export and revenue base, provide employment, increase the income level of rural families, and strengthen the institutional capability in the country for oil palm devel- opment. 20. In addition to its support for agriculture, the Bank Group is also assisting the Government in its diversification efforts through credits to LBDI for the manufacturing sector. A small and medium scale enterprises pro- ject, approved in November 1980, seeks to stimulate economic activity and employment by providing credit and technical assistance. While reinforcing the Government's efforts to become less dependent on mining, the Bank has granted loans for a project to rehabilitate a mine operated by the National Iron Ore Company, which would help maintain employment, increase Government revenues and prepare the way for an orderly transition from mining to other economic activities in the area. The objective of the petroleum exploration promotion project, approved in October 1980, is to establish Liberia's hydro- carbon potential by attracting oil companies to take oil exploration permits in Liberia. 21. Given Liberia's pressing needs for physical infrastrucutre, the Bank Group continues to play a leading role in financing development and mainte- nance of roads and water supply and power facilities. A water supply project for which a credit was granted in 1978 is designed to help rehabilitate and expand the Monrovia water supply system, extend water distribution to lower income groups in metropolitan areas, and strengthen the management, staffing, and finances of the Liberia Water and Sewer Corporation (LWSC). An urban development project, for which a credit was approved in April 1982, seeks to improve the living conditions of Monrovia's urban poor by (a) upgrading infra- structure and providing essential services in three of its most needy neigh- borhoods, and (b) strengthening key institutions to provide more effective management and establish a solid revenue base in the municipality. The feeder roads project for which a Bank loan was approved in 1979 is designed to open up the agricultural hinterland of Liberia to support ongoing and proposed ag- ricultural and rural development programs. The nearly completed fourth high- way project has, like earlier Bank-financed projects, expanded the country's limited basic road network. A fifth highway project to improve the country's road maintenance capability is being considered. Through four projects in the power sector, the Bank has helped expand the Liberia Electricity Corporation's (LEC) thermal generating facilities to meet current demand, strengthened LEC's  - 8 - management, and extended con ections to poor urban households in Monrovia. Bank Group assistance wouild also be considered to meet Liberia's longer term electricity needs through hydropower development. 22. The proposed fourth education project would address a critical con- straint to development: the shortage of literate and trained manpower. In this way it would serve directly the objectives which the Government and the Bank share for Liberia. PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR 23. Liberia made substantial progress over the last two decades in ef- forts to expand primary and secondary school enrollments, increase the annual output of primary school teachers, and establish education and training pro- grams to meet manpower needs. Despite this rapid growth, the education sys- tem is not able to meet the country's increasing demand for literate and skilled manpower. The task remains a large one, since only about 52 percent of primary-age children attend school, and this figure is much lower outside Monrovia. In addition, educational efficiency and quality suffer from short- ages of qualified teachers and supervisors, poor planning capacity, and a lack of textbooks and teaching materials. The issue for the Government is how, in this period of financial constraints, to improve the efficiency and quality of the system and at the same time continue to expand access to primary educa- tion. 24. Access to Education. The 52 percent primary school enrollment ratio in Liberia is below the average for West Africa. Furthermore, access to edu- cation varies widely, ranging from about 30 percent of school-age children in Bong County to more than 60 percent in three other counties. Enrollment ratios for girls are considerably lower. At the same time, the progression rate from primary to lower secondary school is now about 75 percent, which is very high by West African standards; and there has been a rapid increase in post-secondary enrollments. Hence, one means to fund increases in enrollment at the primary level in the short-run, given the severe shortage of resources, would be to slow the growth of secondary and post-secondary school enrollments and channel a relatively larger amount of the education budget to primary education. 25. Quality and Efficiency of Education. While the educational system produces enough graduates to meet employer demands in some fields, quality is generally much poorer than needed. As a result, graduates are mismatched with job requirements, expatriate workers are hired, and worker productivity is less than warranted by the amount of training received. The low quality and efficiency of the education system are reflected in high dropout rates, and in the extent to which remedial programs, particularly in mathematics and science, are offered at each level. The lack of textbooks and teaching mater- ials is a major cause of the low quality; 60 percent of primary and secondary students have no individual textbooks, and about half of the lower secondary schools have no equipment or learning materials.  - 9 - 26. The shortage of qualified teachers is another factor accounting for low quality. Only about 30 percent of the primary and secondary school teachers have had pedagogical training, yet there is no regular in-service up- grading program. The annual output of trained teachers for the primary and lower secondary levels continues to be about 200 less than required to meet reasonable targets. Educational supervision also needs to be improved, espe- cially in light of the shortage of qualified teachers and the general lack of textbooks. 27. Planning and Administration. Although educational planning and ad- ministration have improved considerably in recent years, the foundation for the improvements was extremely weak, and there is need for further improve- ment. Educational and manpower planning activities are dispersed throughout a number of agencies with inefficient coordination. The capacity of the Ministry of Education (MOE) to monitor and evaluate education and training programs needs to be strengthened, and the Ministry's operating procedures, particularly in accounting and personnel management, need to be improved. 28. Education Financing. The Government follows a number of sound educa- tion financing policies. It encourages the construction and operation of schools by non-governmental organizations and the mining and rubber conces- sions. In general, subsidies to these schools are far less than it would cost the Government to run them itself. Cost recovery from students for textbooks and other learning aids is already standard practice in Liberia, and the Government is trying to introduce additional cost recovery mechanisms into the education and training system. The Government has also tried over the last few years to allocate foreign fellowships according to manpower requirements and the ability of students to pay for their own education. Despite this constructive trend, there is room for further improvement. Overall, recurrent expenditures on education remain low in relation to other West African countries. Thus, allowing for overall budgetary constraints, the Government should aim toward an increase in the share of the total government recurrent budget devoted to education. In addition, it should begin to allocate a larger share of its education budget to primary education and to reduce the share for post-secondary education. Those funds which are allocated to higher education should be used more efficiently, and incentives should be employed to channel students into fields in which there is a need for trained manpower. 29. Government's Strategy. The Government seeks to (a) improve quality, (b) develop vocational and technical education to meet manpower requirements, (c) strengthen educational planning and administration, and (d) expand primary education. In order to improve quality and efficiency of education, the Government plans to upgrade teachers, provide more textbooks, and improve vocational programs. In addition, a university development project now under preparation will improve the efficiency of the university and address the country's need for skilled professionals such as scientists, doctors, engineers, and teachers. The Government will also strengthen educational supervision, administration, and financial practices, and begin to eliminate publicly supported pre-primary education which has not proved cost effective.  - 10 - 30. The Government plans to continue to expand access to primary educa- tion by five percent annually through a modest school construction program and incentives to private school building in areas least well served by the education system. The expansion of access to secondary education will be slowed and quality will be improved. With UNDP/ILO help, the Government plans to continue to strengthen manpower and demographic planning. 31. To improve the allocation of resources for education, the Government will, in addition to establishing new cost recovery methods, encourage community participation in school building and maintenance and lower unit costs by improving design and procurement of facilities and materials. 32. The Bank Group's Role in the Education Sector. The Bank Group and the Government have worked together on educational matters since 1971. Goals have been to improve (a) the Government's capacity to administer manpower de- velopment; (b) access to education in rural areas through an adult education program and construction of primary schools; (c) the quality of education through help for curriculum development, educational publications, testing and evaluation, and teacher training; and (d) the relevance of education and training to the country's manpower requirements through support for training in agriculture, forestry, and vocational skills. Bank assistance so far has totalled US$17.5 million for three education projects, and more than US$10 million for project-related training in other sectors. 33. The Project Performance Audit (Report No. 3345 dated February 25, 1981) for the First Education Project (Credit 305-LBR) concluded that the project met most of its objectives, including enrollments in project institutions, and had a positive impact upon manpower, educational, and university planning, and upon project management capacity. The Second Education Project (Loan 1266T-LBR) was completed by the revised loan closing date of August 31, 1982. It focused on rural primary school construction, and related teacher training, and institutional development. The project achieved most of its physical and enrollment objectives and led to the reorganization of MOE. However, its impact on MOE's administrative capacity, while substantial, was less than anticipated. In addition, the primary school workshop facilities are not being used as intended, the schools have not served as planned as a base for adult education, and the textbook component was not successfully executed because of unresolved policy issues. 34. The Third Education Project (Loan 1417-LBR), which is expected to be completed by the revised closing date of December 31, 1983, provided funds to establish a Forestry Training Institute (FTI), a Vocational Training Center (VTC), an Agricultural and Industrial Training Bureau (AITB), and science and technology centers at four secondary schools. The FTI is operating effec- tively. Three of the science centers are in operation and the last will open at the start of the next school year in March 1983. The AITB and VTC have been plagued with problems including contractor defaults, poor performance by an equipment supplier, and delays caused by the 1980 coup. Consequently, technical assistance specialists at the VTC/AITB campus had to spend their time dealing with these problems instead of helping start the institution; and the VTC and AITB will require further assistance to become fully operational.  - 11 - 35. We have learned several lessons from these projects: (i) given the narrow base from which it started, the institutional development of Liberia's education system will require long-term assistance; (ii) any attempt to estab- lish a textbook scheme will have to be based on a comprehensive textbook pro- gram and should not depend on MOE for printing; and (iii) education projects can best be implemented in Liberia through decentralized management, with the Project Implementation Unit coordinating all financing, procurement, and ac- counting activities.. 36. Future Assistance. Over the long term, the Bank Group should provide further help for institutional development, improvements in quality at all educational levels, and expansion of access to primary education. It should also help strengthen middle-level and professional programs providing com- mercial, industrial, agricultural, and teacher training. As this future assistance will take place in a period of severe fiscal constraints, high priority should be given to improvements in efficiency. For the short-term, the Bank should continue to support a sustainable growth rate in primary school enrollments, and improvements in the quality and efficiency of selected types of education and training. PART IV - THE PROJECT Project Background and Preparation 37. The project was identified in December 1979, following extensive dis- cussion between IDA and the Government of the Education and Training Review Memorandum (No. 2620a-LBR) issued in November 1979. That memorandum served as a basis for important policy measures taken by the Government, and resulted in identification of the proposed project. A Government team, coordinated by the Deputy Minister of Planning and Economic Affairs, began preparation in March 1980. The project was appraised in March 1982 (Report No. 4010-LBR). Nego- tiations were held in Washington in October 1982 with a Liberian delegation led by Mr. Paul Jeffy, Deputy Minister of Planning & Economic Affairs, accom- panied by representatives of a number of ministries. Annex III contains sup- plementary project data. Two PPF advances totalling US$800,000 were approved in September 1980 and in August 1982. Project Objectives 38. The main objective of the project is to improve the quality and effi- ciency of primary education through institutional development of the Ministry of Education (MOE), establishment of a textbook program, and upgrading and training of teachers. The project would also expand access to primary educa- tion in rural areas and improve the quality and efficiency of middle-level vocational and commercial training.  - 12- Project Description 39. The proposed project, to be implemented over the 1983-1988 period, would comprise: Part I: Institutional Development (a) Educational planning and administration and preparation of future projects. Technical assistance, auditing services, fellowships, equipment and vehicles, and some incremental operating costs to strengthen MOE's capacity for educational planning, administration, project preparation, and project management; and (b) Tests and measurements. Technical assistance, fellowships, equipment and vehicles to strengthen the Liberian branch of the West African Examinations Council. Part II: Primary School Development (a) Textbook procurement and distribution. Technical assistance, fellowships, office equipment and furniture, and the purchase of textbooks and transportation services to execute a textbook program for the primary level; (b) Teacher training and upgrading. Technical services provided by the two universities in Liberia to upgrade about 2,250 primary school teachers. To help the University of Liberia better carry out its teacher training work, the project would finance equipment and pedagogical materials, fellowships, and technical assistance for the University's Department of Education; (c) Educational supervision. Technical assistance and fellowships to strengthen the school inspectorate. Construction, furniture, and equipping of three regional education centers; and (d) School construction, furniture, and equipment. Construction, furniture, and equipment for about 24 new primary schools in rural areas and the costs of supervising construction. Furniture and equipment for about 30 existing primary schools. Part III: Skill Training (a) AITB and VTC. Technical assistance to strengthen the Agricultural and Industrial Training Board. Minor civil works, technical assistance, and consumable teaching materials for the Vocational Training Center; and (b) Commercial Training. Architects' fees, construction, furniture, equipment, technical assistance, and fellowships to establish a new 215-place commercial training center in Monrovia.  - 13 - Project Implementation 40. MOE, the University of Liberia, and the National Youth and Sports Ministry would manage their own components, as was done for the Third Educa- tion Project. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) in MOE would be respons- ible for day-to-day coordination of implementation. The inter-agency Project Coordinating Committee would oversee its implementation and advise the Project Director. This Committee was established in 1980 to prepare the project and is chaired by the Deputy Minister of Planning. 41. Institutional Development. As discussed in para. 27, further efforts are needed to strengthen MOE's planning and management capability. In addi- tion to providing more technical assistance, the proposed project would spon- sor a series of workshops designed to involve the entire ministry in the in- stitution building process. The project would finance consultants from the University of Liberia to help carry out workshops in accounting, procurement, personnel management, school location planning, cost analysis, and evaluation over a three-year period. The Government has agreed to submit to the Associa- tion for review by March 31 of each project year (i) a list of proposed work- shop topics, course outlines and participants for the following year; and (ii) an evaluation of the workshops conducted during the preceding 12 months (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.06). 42. The assistance to the Liberian branch of the West African Examina- tions Council would enable it to help MOE select teacher training candidates and identify educational priorities. During the project period, the Council would assess, by school and region, the results of the secondary school en- trance and leaving examinations and would develop a test for admission to teacher training programs. 43. Textbook Procurement and Distribution. The project would establish a national textbook program for the primary grades. The program would be carried out in two phases: (i) a pilot phase (July 1982 - April 1983), begun with PPF financing, during which about 110,000 textbooks would be procured and sold to students in Grades 1-3; and (ii) a four-year implementation phase dur- ing which about 1.8 million textbooks would be procured and sold to students in Grades 1-6. The program would be administered by a textbook office which the Government has established within MOE and which would receive technical assistance under the project. The program goal is to make textbooks for five subjects available to all primary students by the end of the project. The Government would purchase low-cost editions of existing textbooks through ICB and sell them to students through private agents throughout Liberia at a price about 25 cents higher than the cost to the Government of the books. The total value of textbooks purchased during the project would be US$3.5 million. However, since the program would ultimately be self-financing, only US$2.1 million has been included for textbooks in the project costs. The rest would be financed from the textbook fund which would receive the revenues from textbook sales. 44. A textbook specialist financed under the PPF is currently helping the Government initiate the pilot program and its related distribution and  - 14 - financing scheme. By January 1, 1983, the Government will establish for the textbook fund a special interest-bearing account in a financial institution acceptable to the Association, and will review with the Association the mechanism for operating this fund; by June 30 and December 31 of each project year the Government will submit to the Association an independent audit report on the use of funds and textbooks for the program (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.07). Audit fees would be financed by the project. As discussed in paras. 33 and 35, the attempt to develop a textbook service under the Second Education project made little progress. The proposed scheme has been prepared carefully on the basis of previous experience and has the full commitment of the Government. Nevertheless, given the importance of the textbook component and the lack of experience with textbooks in Liberia, the Government has agreed to (a) submit to IDA by August 31 of each year of project implementation, a report evaluating the execution of the textbook program; and (b) submit to IDA by December 31, 1987 an evaluation of the impact of the textbook program on the educational achievement of primary students, carried out in accordance with a research design satisfactory to IDA (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.08). 45. USAID is financing a pilot Improved Efficiency of Learning (IEL) project, involving programmed learning materials for Grades 1-6. The Govern- ment, USAID, and IDA will together review the cost-effectiveness of these materials over the next few years and the extent to which IEL materials might eventually be linked to the national textbook program. 46. Teacher Training and Upgrading. The project would finance the up- grading of about 2,250, or 35 percent, of the primary school teachers in Liberia. To do so, it would help MOE establish an in-service teacher training program to be conducted at the University of Liberia, Cuttington University College, and the Kakata and Zorzor Rural Teacher Training Institutes. Each of the two universities would be responsible for its own courses and for those at the teacher training institute closest to it. The Ministry has negotiated contracts with the two universities for delivery of the project-financed training services. The in-service courses would be offered for two months each year during the school vacation. The study programs for each institution would be based on MOE's 1980 teacher-training curriculum. Educational super- visors and inspectors would participate in the training programs to ensure more relevant teacher training. 47. School Construction and Furnishing. The 54 primary schools to be built and/or furnished and equipped under the project would be located in rural areas. Sites have been selected according to criteria agreed with IDA. The community in which each new school is located would provide at least 25 acres for the school site and would be responsible for clearing the site and providing regular school maintenance. Based on the experience of the Second Education Project (para. 33), the design of the schools has been simplified and the workshops have been eliminated. 48. VTC/AITB. As noted in para. 34, construction of the Vocational Training Center (VTC) and the Agricultural and Industrial Training Bureau (AITB) was completed under the Third Education Project and they are fully  - 15 - staffed. To assist both institutions to become fully operational, this project would provide a total of 6.5 man-years of technical assistance and two man-years of fellowships to the VTC and AITB, and consumable teaching materials and minor civil works to the VTC. 49. Commercial Training. To establish the Clerical, Business, and Domestic Training Center (CBDTC), the project would combine the training pro- grams of three publicly supported centers which operate inefficient and unco- ordinated programs. The new center, under the National Youth and Sports Ministry, would offer both pre-employment and in-service training and would work closely with the Liberian Institute of Public Administration. The cleri- cal and business course, comprising one to two years of training, would serve both the public and private sectors. Students from the private sector would pay fees similar to those charged by privately operated centers. Some would be sponsored by firms and others would pay their own fees. The Government has agreed to submit to the Association by June 30, 1983 a proposed fee structure for the new center and proposals for handling and accounting for fees. When the center is ready to start operating, the Government will terminate the commercial and domestic science courses at the Eugenia Simpson School, the National Clerical Training Center, and the Commercial and Domestic Training Center, and will transfer sufficient staff from those institutions to the new center to enable it to conduct its training programs (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.09). 50. The Government owns the site for the CBDTC in Monrovia. As a condi- tion of disbursement for the civil works for the CBDTC, the Government would provide evidence that there is adequate electricity and water at the commer- cial training center site (draft Development Credit Agreement, Schedule I, item 3 (b)). 51. Technical Assistance and Fellowships. The project includes a total of 29.5 staff-years of technical assistance and 102 staff-years of fellow- ships. The qualifications, experience and terms of reference of the spe- cialists would be acceptable to the Association. The fellowships would be awarded to suitably qualified candidates who would serve at least two years in the positions for which they were trained (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.10). Project Costs and Financing 52. Total project costs net of identifiable taxes and duties (from which the project would be exempt) are estimated at US$25.1 million, including foreign costs of US$18.6 million or about 74 percent of total. A breakdown of project costs may be found at the beginning of this report. The estimated base costs for construction are about US$26 per square foot for the primary schools and US$36 per square foot for the commercial training center. Esti- mated base costs for furniture are US$50 per student place for the primary schools. Estimated costs for equipment are US$8 per student place for the primary schools, and US$1,130 for the commercial training center. These base costs compare favorably with those for similar institutions in the rest of the region. The net-of-tax base cost of technical assistance is estimated at  - 16 - US$10,500 per staff-month, including salary, allowances, and overhead, and is based on recent recruitment experience of the Government and international organizations. 53. The proposed IDA Credit of SDR 12.6 million (US$13.5 million equiva- lent) and a loan for the equivalent of about US$9.8 million from the African Development Bank (ADB) would finance the project in parallel. The IDA Credit would finance the costs of planning and administration including auditing; tests and measurement; textbook procurement and distribution; teacher train- ing; AITB/VTC; and commercial training. The ADB loan would finance education supervision, school construction and furniture, and project management. External financing would cover 93 percent of the total net-of-tax costs, including about US$5.0 million for local costs. The Government would contri- bute US$1.8 million toward the costs of civil works, architects' fees, furni- ture, technical assistance, fellowships, and project management. Recurrent Cost Implications 54. By 1988, when the project-assisted programs are expected to be fully operational, the Government's recurrent expenditures would increase by about US$0.8 million per year in 1981 prices. This would correspond to about 1.5 percent of the Government's 1981-1982 recurrent budget allocation for MOE, the University of Liberia, and the Ministry of Youth and Sports. As the institu- tional development, educational supervision, teacher training, and skill training components would generate very little or no additional recurrent costs, the project's impact on future recurrent expenditures would be rela- tively small. Moreover, the Government would recover the cost of textbooks from students. Consolidating three commercial training programs into the new center, and collecting student fees, would produce yearly savings in recurrent expenditures for publicly supported commercial training. To ensure adequate budgetary funds, the Government has agreed to submit to the Association by June 15 of each project year its proposed recurrent budget for primary education, the textbook program, the AITB, the VTC, and the CBDTC (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.11). Accounts and Audit 55. As discussed in Part I of this report, the Government faces severe financial constraints which would make it difficult for it to advance funds for expenditures to be financed from the IDA Credit. For this reason, it is recommended that a Special Account with an initial advance of US$300,000 from the credit be established to cover local expenditures to be financed by IDA. As a condition of effectiveness, the Government would open an account for this purpose in the National Bank of Liberia (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 2.02(c, d, e, f, and g) and 5.01 (a)). The Project Manager heading the PIU would control the Special Account, and IDA would replenish it upon receipt of evidence of certified expenditures. In addition, the Government would establish a separate Project Account into which it would deposit an ini- tial US$200,000 to finance its share of project costs. Deposit of the initial US$200,000 would be a condition of effectiveness, and replenishments would be made thereafter on a quarterly basis (draft Development Credit Agreement,  - 17 - Sections 3.01(b) and 5.01 (b)). With the assistance of an independent auditing firm financed under the Project, the PIU would establish and maintain the necessary accounts and records for the project, using internationally accepted accounting procedures. Annual audits of each account would be con- ducted by the auditing firm, and the reports would be submitted to the Association for review within six months of the close of the Government's fiscal year. Procurement 56. Civil works valued at US$1.35 million and furniture and equipment valued at US$0.9 million would be procured on the basis of ICB in accordance with the Association's guidelines. Items of furniture and equipment that cannot be grouped into packages of at least US$75,000 equivalent, or which are not suitable for ICB, would be procured through local competitive bidding pro- cedures acceptable to the Association. For items valued below US$15,000, and for which potential suppliers are limited, quotations would be invited from at least three reliable suppliers, whenever possible. The total of items pro- cured by these methods would not exceed US$300,000. The Association would review the bidding and bid evaluation documents for all contracts expected to cost the equivalent of US$100,000 or more before the contracts are awarded. Project financed specialists would be recruited according to the Bank Group guidelines issued in August 1981. For the pilot phase of the textbook pro- curement and distribution component, which would focus on the logistics of distribution and sales, the Government would procure textbooks valued at US$100,000 by negotiating with the publishers of books selected from a list approved by MOE. Textbooks valued at US$2.0 million for the implementation phase of the program would be procured through ICB from among prequalified bidders who had submitted books which were found acceptable to the Govern- ment's textbook committee. Disbursement 57. The proceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed as follows: (a) 70 percent of total expenditures for civil works, furniture, and architects' fees - US$1,000,000; (b) 100 percent of total expenditures for textbooks, textbook distribution, and equipment - US$3,400,000; (c) 90 percent of total expenditures for technical assistance and fellowships - US$6,300,000; (d) 100 percent of the initial deposit in the Special Account - US$300,000; and (e) 100 percent of the withdrawn PPF funds - US$ 800,000. US$1.7 million of the proposed credit would be unallocated. All disbursements from the credit account would be fully documented.  - 18 - Benefits and Risks 58. The project would provide about 6,600 rural primary school places, equal to about 3 percent of the present enrollment at the primary level. It would also improve the quality of primary education by upgrading about 35 per- cent of the primary school teachers. In addition, it would increase the num- ber of books available for the primary level each year from about 20,000 to 400,000 and strengthen school administration and the educational inspector- ate. These improvements would reduce dropout and repetition rates, thereby leading to lower costs per graduate. 59. The project would also improve considerably the quality of Liberian commercial training. The improvements noted above, and higher quality com- mercial training, are expected to have important economic benefits, including higher worker productivity, an increase in skilled manpower for meeting priority needs, and greater employment and self-employment opportunities for graduates. Another economic benefit of the project is that it would help the Government establish cost-recovery procedures for several education and training programs. 60. The project should have a positive effect on women and on the rural poor. First, the increase in the number of places in primary schools in rural areas will encourage an increase in the enrollment of women and the rural poor. Second, for the first time in Liberia, the poor will have access to affordable textbooks for primary education. Third, a large portion of CBDTC students will be women, and the training offered by the CBDTC should considerably improve their prospects for employment. 61. The Ministry of Education's lack of experience in developing and administering a textbook program poses a risk for the project. A related risk is that the educational supervision and the teacher training and upgrading components may not be sufficiently coordinated with the textbook program. These risks have been addressed by ensuring adequate techfiical assistance in key areas, preparing each component in detail prior to appraisal, and taking into account the lessons of the three previous Bank-assisted education projects in designing this project. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 62. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Liberia and IDA as well as the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 63. In addition to the features of the Development Credit Agreement which are referred to in the text and listed in Section III of Annex III, special conditions of Credit effectiveness would be: (a) opening of a Special Account in the National Bank of Liberia, and (b) deposit of an initial US$200,000 in a  - 19 - separate Project Account. A special condition of disbursement for construc- tion of the commercial training center would be evidence of adequate elec- tricity and water at the site for the center. 64. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 65. I recommend that the Executive Directors of the Association approve the proposed credit. A. W. Clausen President Attachments Washington, D.C. November 11, 1982  -20- ANNEXI Page 1 TARLE 3A LIBER!-IPOIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET LIAEROI uPNRUNCE CIOPS (WEIGHTED AVE S AREA (THOUSANDESQ. KM.) - MOST RENT ESTIMATZE TOTAL 111.4 MOST lJICENT MIDDLL lNCOME MIDDLE INCOM AGRICULTURAL 6.1 1960 /b 1970 Lb ESTIMTE b AFRICA SOlll Ow LAAJA NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE UST GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 170.0 270.0 530.0 1053.2 1253.6 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILO $AMS OF COAL EQU:YALENT) 82.7 533.9 425.0 610.1 713.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, KID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 978.0 1335.0 1873.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 20.5 26.2 33.0 28.3 47.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 3.9 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 12.6 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS RACHED 2100 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 8.8 12.0 16.3 54.7 35.8 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 160.3 219.9 296.2 129.9 420.9 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 45.4 46.8 47.8 46.0 44.3 15-64 YRS. 52.0 50.8 49.9 51.1 52.4 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.8 URBAN 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.6 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 50.1 48.8 48.8 47.2 41.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 20.6 16.5 13.6 15.7 12.2 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.9 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 96.0 101.0 97.0 90.7 100.4 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 113.6 100.5 101.4/c 93.9 108.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 45.8 43.0 42.9/i 54.8 71.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 10.8 11.6 12.6/c 17.0 18.0 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 45.5 39.6 33.8 23.9 15.1 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 44.1 49.1 53.6 51.0 56.9 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 194.0 173.8 153.9 118.5 104.3 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 20.0/d .. 59.1 URBAN .. .. 64.Or d* 83.1 RURAL .. .. 6.O/i .. 39.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 11.0/d URBAN ., 35.0/i RURAL .. .. 6.0/.. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 12600.0 11754.5 9276.5/f 14185.2 4015.5 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 1411.8/e 2671.5 1808.5/! 2213.2 1802.2 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 711.8 592.0 623.0/f 1036.4 641.7 URBAN 181.3 194.4 .. 430.8 538.3 RURAL .. .. .. 3678.6 2403.3 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 27.7 .. .. 25.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBAN 3./Z .... RURAL .. .. AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN _j/Rh . RURAL 1  ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN. . RURAL  -21 - ANX I Page 2 TABLE 3A LIBERiA- SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET LIBERIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVENGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MOST RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 lb ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTN OF SARARA NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 31.0 53.0 67.0 83.3 88.7 MALE 45.0 71.0 83.0 96.1 104.5 FEMALE 18.0 35.0 51.0 80.4 72.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 9.0 22.0 15.3 39.7 MALE 3.0 15.0 31.0 19.4 49.3 FEMALE 1.0 4.0 12.0 11.3 . 29.0 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (% OF SECONDARY) 11.7 5.3 2.5 4.7 10.1 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 32.4 35.5 42.1 38.6 34.1 SECONDARY 14.2 16.5 .. 23.4 23.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 8.9/i 15.0/k 25.4 35.6 43.3 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND -OPULATION 1.0 11.1 8.1/d 31.9 17.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 102.2 116.1 176.2 71.8 131.3 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 1.5/1 5.2 11.6 17.9 44.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST') CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.8 5.2 6.1 19.1 31.5 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 380.4 481.8 628.4 FEMALE (PERCENT) 33.9 32.5 31.6 36.5 10.6 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 80.0 75.0 70.0 56.5 42.4 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 10.0 12.0 14.0 17.7 27.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 38.9 36.1 33.6 37.0 26.0 MALE 51.9 49.0 45.9 46.9 46.2 FEMALE 26.1 23.3 21.2 27.2 5.6 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 61.7/1 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 72.67I LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 5.37i1 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 10.97 . POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 507.0 279.2 RURAL .. .. 75.0 200.6 178.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 137.0 523.9 403.6 RURAL .. .. 125.0 203.6 285.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 23.0 .. 22.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. 30.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted aritbuetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1978 and 1980. /c 1977; /d 1974; /e 1964; /f 1975; Ij 1956. /h City of Monrovia only; /i 1962; /, 1964; /k 1973; /1 Population, higher income calculated as residual; includes expatriates. May, 1982  - 22 - * ~~~~~ANNEX I -nf= M UL OCN Page 3 Sras Al.oheg the de. a- tea free seeeo ms-Ily judged the meet atboritat- - olmb. it besi also be setS etst tey my so be inor- setiaIly o-aosbla becus of the i1ob of staudadiss defiitioe sod co-pit emS by dif f-te -rim inoolot the data ihe daaar.so theism. maf.l to . issrth endre of -me-enteads . dov crdo. sed cbarttries cetain -.01 diffsrs-o heweoooorto Therefrsos gous at () te emacooroytrop f rho aubject country and (2) a rooncry groop itch toncohor higher c-rg. inco.e th- rthe o r ro-t of te sujectonuory (ecop for HighIccoe Olftoporcort" group ohro "Middle -oom North Af.ios sod Middle toot is ohoe..e- o of otro-o sooo-coturol affiiis .tothe eeec ru dateIhe verge ar ouoI.c. egted arithmetic means for each indicator end shoe oly ohrv maoit f h tcucise in o group hae data for thtc idiotrh ic the oerg ofcotoioio aS the indiotore deponds on rho oaichility of doro etd is vt aifor-, caut ion met he soercised it relating -oerges ofon indicator to enotbr. These -.eeg. are only utofa1 in coeporicg the -ctu of ooe indicator. ata time sog the country et. rfrec grutte. ARin (thoosan eq.i.) Ppulat ion po crcl ted - oo,ura,cd -uc1-P icic(coccI, Total - Total su -coeo coprising land aree acd icised eatore; 1979 done. arbn, adrrl iie byttthoir respccive oubar of hoopite hodo Eeintrl- Etiato of arioiua os used apo orl 00pemo tly ovilable n ubicud pri-teco geor. en1 d speci.giiod huepicaatdre.- for crop. P., crs. mcbt ond kitchen gardot-o to us. fcllo; 1979 dato. hilacoo ee.1 tiosPitalo cr0 etsbliahmeoc poroenetly scoffed by ts iseet -n physici_. Etecblioheenc pro1dirg priocipsily cuetc- 000pgCPTA (US$) GNmP per capico tetimetes atcret mgrkt prices. cl- dint career vet included.Rcore hospitalo. h.--oo, include -Icth culeted y oem crricmthod o Wonld bob Ails. (1978-80 bssie); 1960. aed medical centers vet poreoetly eteffsd by a physician (but by 1970, _d