Bolivia national transport study (Vol. 4 of 5)

61812 V4 BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY j j FINAL REPORT VOLUME FOUR APPENDICES7-1B <i Y < PREPARED FOR GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BOLIVIA [MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONSJ INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION ANP DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME PREPARED BY WILBUR SMITH AND ASSOCIATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CDNSA SRL & ECDVIANA SRL LA PAZ J BOLIVIA .JULY "ISS"I  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY FINAL REPORT VOLUME FOUR APPENDICES 7-~B PREPARED FOR GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BOLIVIA (MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONSl INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME PREPARED BY WILBUR SMITH AND ASSOCIATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONSA SRL &. ECOVIANA SRL LA PAZ ,BOLIVIA .JULY 1981  BANKERS TRUST TOWER CABLE W/LSMITH P. O. BOX 92 TELEX 57·3439 COLUMBIA, S. C 29202 July, 1981 PHONE (803) 771·8844 Senor Cnl DEMA Ren~ Guzman Fortun Mr. James B. Newman Minister of Transport and Ports, Railways and Aviation Division Communications Latin America and Caribbean Regional La Paz Office Bolivia The World Bank Washington, D.C. U.S.A. Gentlemen: Wilbur Smith and Associates is pleased to submit this Final Report of Phase I of the Bolivia National Transport Study. The Report is in five volumes. Volumes I and II review the existing situation and present the main analyses, findings and recommendations. Volumes III and IV contain supplementary appendices and the fifth volume is a summary of the Report. The Report represents the conclusion of over two years effort by a professional team made up of consultant's staff and Bolivian nationals. During the course of the Study, several interim reports and technical papers were produced, culminating in a draft Final Report in November, 1980. The first review period was concluded in December with the final meeting of the Study Steering Committee, when all initial comments on the draft report were pre- sented by Bolivian entities and by the World Bank. A more lengthy review and discussion period followed in which additional valuable contributions were made to the Final Report. The Report presents and supports a recommended National Transport Plan set in the con- text of the expected development of the Bolivian economy over the next ten years, and with consideration for possible developments in the following ten years. It is not intended that the recommendations be taken as a fixed plan; forecasting the future is a hazardous task, and it is impossible to foresee all possible developments. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the Government set up a permanent transport planning group, utilizing the Bolivian counterpart team involved in this Study,to monitor developments and adapt the Plan to changing circumstances. The first steps have been taken in this direction by selecting a counterpart team for Phase II of this Study. Hopefully, this will form a solid basis for the continuing transport planning process, and for a permanent National Transport Center. The cooperation and assistance we received throughout the Study from officers of the Government and others concerned with transport in Bolivia, is gratefully acknowledged. We also wish to recognize the contributions made by our colleagues on the national counter- part team, and by our local associate consultants, CONSA SRL and ECOVIANA SRL. We appreci- ate the opportunity to have participated in the study effort, and look forward to the imp- lementation of the recommendations. Respectfully submitted WILBUR SMITH AND ASSOCIATES ~r~ ~~~~ma~' smuf ALLIANCE,OH AMMAN, JORDAN· BRISBANE· CAMDEN, NJ· CHARLESTON, SC· COLUMBIA, SC· FALLS CHURCH, VA· HONG KONG· HOUSTON KUALA LUMPUR, MALA YSIA • KNOXVILLE· LA PAZ, BOLIVIA • LEXINGTON, KY • LOS ANGELES· MELBOURNE MIAMI· NEW HA VEN NEW YORK· PITTSBURGH· RALEIGH, NC· RICHMOND. ,SAN FRANCISCO· SANTA CRUZ, BOL/VIA· SINGAPORE· TORONTO· WASHINGTON, DC  PREFACE TO VOLUME FOUR This volume contains appendices associated with Chapters 7 - 18 of the Bolivia National Transport Study Final Report. A list of appendices in this volume appears on the next page. In- dividual indexes for each appendix (when appropriate) appear after the divider page marking the start of the appendix. (i)  Appendices contained in VOLUME FOUR Appendix 7A Overall View of Bolivian Economy 274 7B Definition of Alternative Development Patterns 287 7C Forecast and Distribution of Socio-Economic 304 Variables 7D Socio-Economic Projections by Zone 330 9A Internal Traffic Projections 375 9B Forecasts of Foreign Trade Movements by Mode 389 9C Potential Transit Traffic Through Bolivia 394 lOA List of Candidate Projects 405 llA Vehicle Axle Load Measurement Program 412 lIB Costs of Betterment of Unpaved Roads 416 llC Highway Design Standards 421 lID Highway Capacity and Congestion 428 lIE Summary of Evaluations of Unpaved Roads 433 llF Bridge Analysis 438 llG The Rio Seco-Desaguadero Highway 454 l2A Analysis of New Penetration and Feeder Roads 461 l2B Evaluation of the Santa Barbara-Bella Vista 509 Highway l2C Evaluation of the Highway Eteramazama- 517 San Ignacio de Moxos l2D Evaluation of the Ichilo-Mamor~ River System 523 Cleaning Project l2E Evaluation of the Railroad from Rfo Grande to Trinidad 530 l3A Assumptions on the Costs of Railroad Rehabili- 542 tation Projects l3B Evaluation of Railroad Rehabilitation Projects 554 l6A Analysis of Regulations on Road Transport 559 l6B Organizational Structure and Regulation of Water Transport 565 l7A Projections of ENFE's Freight Operating Costs 570 and Revenues l8A Committed Highway Investments 575 Abbreviations used in the Study Inside Back { Fold-out Reference Map Cover (ii)  APPENDIX 7A OVERALL VIEW OF BOLIVIAN ECONOMY  Appendix 7A OVERALL VIEW OF BOLIVIAN ECONOMY TABLES Number Page 7A-1 Main Population Centers, 1976 Census 275 7A-2 Investments, Value Added, Public and Private 276 Participation in Investments, Period 1970-1976 7A-3 Consolidation of the Public Sector Budget-1979 277 (Banks Excluded) 7A-4 Expenses-1979 278 7A-S Production, Price and Value of Agricultural 279 Production, 1978 7A-6 Production, Price and Value of Livestock,1978 280 7A-7 Production of Minerals by Group 281 7A-8 Production of the Refineries 282 7A-9 Volume arid Annual Value of Crude Oil and 283 Gas Exports 1971-1978 7A-10 Newly Registered Industrial Enterprises 284 7A-11 Value Added and Net Value of Agroindustrial 285 Production by Sector 7A-12 Selected Agricultural Exports 286 -274-  Table- 7A"':1 MAIN POPULATION CENTERS, 1976 CENSUS BASIN ~ OR CI'lY DEPAR'1MENl' AND P~ POPUIATION A La Paz La Paz, Mlrillo 654,713 AM. Santa Cruz Santa Cruz, ~s Ibaiiez 256,946 AM. COchabanba Coc:habarrba, Cercado 205,002 A Orum Orum, Cercade 124,121 P Potos! Potos! , 'It:::rna:s Fr!as 77 ,334 P Sucre Chuquisaca, Oropeza 62,207 P Tarija Tarija, Cercado 39,087 AM. M:mtero Santa Cruz, Santiesteban 28,647 AM. Trinidad Bani, Cercade 27,583 A Llallagua Potos!, Bustillos 23,361 AM. Camiri Santa Cruz, Co:rdi.llera 19,782 AM. Quillacollo Coc:habarrba, Qlillacollo 19,433 AM. Riberalta Bani, Vaca Diez 18,032 A Huanuni Oruro, Pantaloon Dalence 17,292 A Colquiri La Paz, Inquisivi 15,334 P Benrejo Tarija, Arce 13,022 P Villaz6n Potos!, M:x'iesto QrI.i.ste 12,536 AM. Guayararrerm Beni, Vaca Diez 12,504 P Yacuiba Tarija, Gran Chaco . 10,791 A Siglo XX Potos!, Bustillos 10,766 P Tupi za Potos!, Soo Chichas 10,682 AM. Punata Cochabamba, Punata 10,216 A Viacha La Paz, Ingavi 9,766 AM. Saavedra Santa Cruz, Santiesteban 8,918 A Uyuni Potos!, Quijarro 8,639 A Catavi Potos!, Bustillos 7,593 A Unc!a Potos!, Bustillos 7,396 AM. Portachuelo Santa Cruz, Sara 7,016 P Robore Santa Cruz, Chiquitos 6,790 p Villarrontes Tarija, Gran Chaco 6,629 A Corocoro La Paz, Pacajes 6,271 AM. Mineros Santa Cruz, Santiesteban 6,184 AM. Sacaba Cochabamba, Chapare 5,728 AM. Sta.Ana de Beni, Yacuma 5,465 Yacuna. AM. Vallegrande Santa Cruz, VallegranCie 5,243 1,761,029 A = Altiplano, AM. = Amazon, P = Plate SOURCE: National Census of Population and Housing, National Statistical Institute, sept. 1977, provisional results. -275-  Table 7A-2 INVESTMENTS, VALUE ADDED, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PARTICIPATION IN INVESTMENTS. PERIOD 1970-1976 (Constant prices 1970) Eb./1.000.000) ( 1) (2 ) --.Ul (4 ) ( 5) ( 6) (7) Agriculture 448.1 34 885.2 66 1,333.3 18,376 Mining and Metallurgy 2,132.8 77 653.0 23 2,785.8 8,751 Hydrocarbons 4,567.2 79.2 1,200(e) 20.8 5,767.2 2,083 I Industry 1,856.2 78 511. 9 22 2,368.1 15,206 tv -...J 0'1 Construction o 566.6 100 566.6 4,110 I Trade and Finances o 529.6 100 529.6 19,317 Government Services 2,604.0 100 o 2,604.0 8,942 Housing Ownership o 765.9 100 765.9 8,484 Other Services o 259.4 100 259.4 9,138 Water and Power 649.9 78 182.0 22 831. 9 1,476 Transport and Communications 2,850.7 79 778.6 21 3,629.3 8,637 Total (1970-76) 15,108.9 70.5 6,332.2 29.5 21,441.1 104,520 (1) Economic Sectors. (2) Public Investment between 1970-76 in thousands of constant pesos at 1980 prices. (3) Percentage of sectoral public investment, related to sectoral total. (4) Sectoral private investment sums 1970 to 1976. (5) Percentage of private investment, compared to total sectoral. ( 6) As ( 2 ) an d (4). (7) Sectoral Value Added as GOP components in constant 1970 prices. (e) Estimated. SOURCE: Working Paper 46. ~. *.:i.4 ~". .\ wo .Ii ~ " 1ii rir4J.Iii •••• ;i iii ~;  Table 7A-3 CONSOLIDATION OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR BUDGET-1979 (BANKS EXCLUDED) (DETAIL OF TRANSACTIONS WITHIN THE SYSTEM BY INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS) INCOME (in pesos) TOI'AL TFJ\NSACI'IOOS INSTITUl'IOOAL TOI'AL CENTRAL DEVELOl?MENT PtlBLIC WITHIN GroUPS BUIX;E.'l' AI:MINISTRATION CORE'ORATIOOS ENTITIES PREFECTURES Mr.NICIPALITY CXH>ANIES '!HE SYSI'EM NET INa:ME central Administration 12,232,899,800 60,500 7,715,000 7,200 1,372,000 41,417,300 50,572,000 U, 182 ,327,800 I:evelopnen t Corporations 2,574,305,300 178,372,200 793,500 302,200 1,243,500 871,378,200 1,052,089,600 1,522,215,700 Public Entities 10,196,222,000 2,311,654,200 U2,924,900 240,651,200 5,782,300 133,776,400 82,274,600 2,897,063,600 7,299,158,400 ~ Prefectums U7,166,600 23,514,600 2,000,000 13,678,500 1,491,000 29,456,000 70,140,100 57,026,500 :j Municipalities 1,781,2U,400 67,451,900 67,451,900 1,713,760,500 I Coipanies 15,800,818,600 564,182,800 52,615,500 616,798,300 15,184,020,300 Public r:ebt 2,262,327,400 2,262,327,400 International Organizations 50,000,000 50,000,000 Total 45,024,952,100 3,145,236,200 125,718,400 262,044,700 6,091,700 137,882,900 1,077,141,600 4,754,115,500 40,270,836,600 SOORCE: Budget of the Public Sector 1979, Ministry of Finance.  Table 7A-4 . EXPENSES - 1979 'IDl'AL TRANSACl'IQilS INSTITUl'ICNAL 'IOI'AL c:EN1'RAL DEVEIDPMENT PUBLIC WI'lHIN GroUPS B!.ll::GET ArMlNISTRM'ICN CDRPORATIQilS ENTITIES PREFECJ:'tJJ.:e:S MtNICIPALITY a:MPANIES THE SYSTEM NE"I' INCXH: Central Mninistration 12,232,899,800 60,500 178,372,200 2,311,654,200 23,514,600 67,451,900 564,182,800 3,145,236,200 9,087,663,600 DevelO(Jlent O::ll:.'pOrations 2,574,305,300 793,500 J22,924,900 2,000,000 J25, 718 ,400 2,448,586,900 Public Entities 10,196,222,000 7,715,000 240,651,200 13,678,SOO 262,044,700 9,934 ,177,300 Prefectures J27,166,600 7,200 302,200 5,782,300 6,091,700 121,074,900 I N -.J Municipalities 1,781,212 ,400 1,372,000 1,243,500 133,776,400 1,491,000 l37 ,882 ,900 1,643,329,500 <f Q:lnpanies 15,800,818,600 41,417,300 871,378,200 82,274,600 29,456,000 52,615,500 1,077,141,600 14,723,677,000 Public Debt 2,262,327,400 2,262,32 7,400 Intematiooal Organizatioos 50,000,000 50,000,000 Total 45,024,952,100 50,572,000 1,052,089,600 2,897,063,600 70,140,100 67,451,900 616,798,300 4,754,115,500 40,270,836,600 SOUR::E: Budget of the Public Sector 1979. Ministry of Finanre. fj. ~ '" .. 1iIi .. iii ~ .;j ~. iiir ,j; .W "  Table 7A-5 PIDOOCl'ION, PRICE AND VALUE OF AGRICUI.lIURAL PIDDUCTION, 1978 PRODUCT PIDDOCTION PRICE VALUE (tons) ($b/ton) ($b 000) Cereals Conl (Maiz blarrlo) 132,454 3,188 422,263 Unpeeled rice 88,580 3,295 291,871 W1eat 59,925 4,147 248,508 Barley in grain 74,815 3,117 233,198 Others (1) 15,320 3,620 55,458 Tubers and Roots Potatoes 793,000 3,719 2,949,167 Yucca 306,250 1,860 569,625 Oca, sweet potato, papaliza (1) 121,800 2,500 304,500 Vegetables Conl (Cl'lOClo) 105,600 1,960 206,976 'Itlnatoes 36,750 5,541 203,631 Broad Bean - Fresh 58,000 3,106 180,148 Onions 48,750 3,554 173,257 Lettuce 13,750 7,866 108,157 Green Beans 13,800 5,792 79,929 Others 49,030 4,850 237,795 Fruits Bananas (Banano) 234,000 2,014 471,276 Bananos (Platano) 165,000 2,238 369,270 Peaches 28,810 7,000 201,670 Grapes 22,000 8,486 186,692 Oranges 80,000 2,334 186,720 Others (1) 102,640 3,950 405,428 Industrial CreEs Cotton in Fiber 17,416 24,347 424,027 Sugar Cane 3,477,500 285 991,087 Peanuts in shell 17,550 8,180 143,559 Soybean 26,225 4,000 104,900 Cotton seed 39,040 1,400 54,656 'Ibbacco 2,375 7,065 16,779 Stimulants Coffee beans 22,250 32,715 727,908 Coca leaves 19,500 29,280 570,960 cacao seeds 3,155 47,840 150,935 Tea 1,453 5,000 7,265 Fodder Conl (Maiz duro) 198,681 2,733 542,995 Alfalfa 325,000 930 302,250 Barley hay 204,000 815 166,260 Sorghum 19,110 1,980 37,838 'lbtal 6,923,529 12,326,958 (1) Prices are weighted averages. SOURCES: Depart:nent of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, (MACA) • Division of Econanic Studies and Agricultural Marketing, MACA. -279-  Table 7A-6 PRODUCTION, PRICE AND VALUE OF LIVESTOCK, 1978 OUTPUT PRICE TO PRODUCER VALUE (number) ($b/head) ($b 000) Cattle 490,331 3,087 1,513,596 Pigs 822,358 543 446,540 Sheep 1,718,992 214 367,864 Fowl 5,578,784 55 306,833 Goats 235,676 216 50,906 Llamas 91,228 500 45,614 Alpacas 15,212 650 9,887 'II 2,741,240 --------- SOURCE: Plan Operativo Agropecuario, 1979, MACA, Oficina de Planificaci6n Sectorial -280- 1111  Table 7A-7 PRODUCTION OF MINERALS BY GROUP (Fine tons) 1978 ( 1) (2) ill (4) ( 5) Tin 21,470 6,625 2,784 30,880 Complex of Sn-W03 1 1 Copper 3,244 22 2,226 I N Lead 12,650 3,397 1,993 18,041 00 I-' Zinc I 38,342 20,975 4 59,322 Wolfram 1,046 1,751 371 3,170 Plant (Complex) 183 16 1 200 Bismuth 479 2 482 Anthimony 9,436 3,225 12,672 159 36 196 Gold (fine grs) 294,442 3,015* 472 770 Lead tailings 3 3 Lead and silver tailings 3 3 * The production of gold corresponding to 8 months from May to December. S~: Ministry of Mining and Metallurgy, quoted in the Plan Operativo 1979. Ministry of Planning and Coordination. (1) Mineral (2) Production of COMIBOL. (3) Production of Medium Mining. (4) Production of Small Mines and Cooperatives. (5) Total.  Table 7A-8 ?RODUCTION OF THE REFINERIES (cubic meters/year) PRODUCTS 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 White gasoline (0) 293,266 335,023 370,065 539,563 671,355 Kerosene 126,963 146 , 685 169,128 171,379 185,825 Diesel Oil 102 .. 071 120,259 148,111 216,765 293,599 Fuel Oil 149,674 ·173,453 178,726 215 .. 034 242,.412 Jet Fuel 10,494 20,470 36,065 64,490 96,195 I L.P.G. of refinery 5,789 11,067 19,857 28,139 39,.326 I\.) 00 I\.) Thinner, ether, naphta 1,224 53 597 660 320 I Refinery gas 15,107 10,599 12,408 14,425 17,341 Losses- 12,483 9,331 10,456 12,.805 14,122 Elaborated L.P.G. (1) 10,952. 19,247 30,139 73,451 129,600 Natural gasoline 7,777 6,718 6,778 6,.382 Lubricants (2) 11,141 12,960 13,692 16,376 15,972 Grease (tons) 410 497 587 1,246 850 SOURCE: Working Paper 46. (0 ) Comprises: normal, extra and superextra gasoline. ( 1) ~laborated at the Cochabrunba, Santa Cruz, Sucre, Camiri, Colpa and R~o Grande Refineries. (2 ) Basic, automotive and industrial lubricants. ~ *" ';ow ~ ;;;ii ;,... ,AI .. .. .. ~ ~. .. - ~ . ~ ~ .. .. j  Table 7A-9 VOLUME AND ANNUAL VALUE OF CRUDE OIL AND GAS EXPORTS 1971-1978 1 9 71 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands ThousandS DETAIL Volume of 00$ Volume of US$ Volume of 00$ Volume: of 05$ Volume: os 05$ Crude Oil 8,447.2 23.892.2 10,944.8 31,711.9 10,798.9 163,928.2 8,086,035 112,571.2 2,862,779 42,325.4 (Barrels) Rep. Ar- gentina 3.,902.4 11,830.6 5,211.4 15,684.4 4,408.0 67,895.1 4,700,431 68,908.3 1,970,519 29,932.1 Pe..-u 2, 9:;'i!. 8 7,978.2 2,576.9 7,155.9 942.7 14,451.6 Chile 831. 7 2,287.2 1,474.4 4,127.9 1,504.2 23,565.9 Brazil 1,682.1. 4,743.7 239.2 3,827.9 I Paraguay 269.6 4,313.2 tv 00 W 'Ecuador 962.9 14 1 177.8 1,228,214 15,893.1 I Puerto Rico 300.1 2,940.5 U.S~A. l 2,172.2 32,756.2 2,137,390 27,769.8 892,260 12, 393.3 ,Natural .Gas (cu.m.) . I Rep. A...- genti.."'la 35,496.8 . 9,863.8 54,593.6 29,185.7 1,571,241,612 54,896.3 11'581,390~569 78,505.8 Liquid Gas (tons 119.63 31. 9.868 1,461.7 IRep. Ar- gentina 714.0 22.3 975 151.1 Brasil , 119.6 31- 8.893 1,310.6 ~and 'Ibtal 23,892.2 41,575.7 193,249.0 167_498.5 122,292.0 SOURCE: WorlPng Paper 46.  Table 7A-l0 NEWLY REGISTERED INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES (January 1974 to May 1979) ( 1) ill (3 ) (4) ill 1974 124 156,800 '" 1975 82 238,400 897 266 1976 108 124,300 1,655 75 'I. 1977 161 437,000 1,811 241 ,I, 1978 104 1,169,700 3,442 340 '!I 1979 71 732,200 1,304 ~61 ;, Total 650 2,858,400 9,109 " • SOURCE: Informe de Labores 1978-1979. ~inistry of Industry, '41 Commerce and Tourism. ~ ( 1) Years. For 1979 the data are partial (to May). (2) Registred Enterprises. "I (3) Machinery and equipment capital, in thousands of $b. (4) Generated employment. (5) Investment in machinery and equipment per employed worker , in thousands of $b. ·,It :~ -284-  Table 7A-11 VALUE ADDED AND NET VALUE OF AGROINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY SECTOR (millions of $b at 1970 prices) I 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 (a) (1) VA GPV VA GPV VA GPV VA GPV I Food 485.3 1.706.4 529.4 1,875.5 577.6 2',061.1 624.4 2,209.5 Beverage 343.9 403.8 285.8 584.7 262.5 390.1 266.1 395.6 Tobacco 60.9 99.9 66.2 101. 4 72.0 102.9 78.3 104.4 Wood (b) 43.4 105.7 42.9 104.0 43.3 104.9 43.7 105.9 f Rubber elab.prod. 5.9 13.1 5.0 14.6 5.0 14.8 5.1 15.1 Alcohol 2.5 5.0 2.8 4.7 2.8 4.7 2.9 4.8 I IV Total Agricultur~ 941.8 2.333.9 932.1 2,684.9 963.2 2;678.6 1,020.5 2,835.2 co U1 I rrOTAL INDUSTRY 2,.485.2 5,623.2 2,656.9 6,050.8 2,842.9 6, 534 . 913,041. 9 7,057.7 SOURCE: Working Paper 46. (1) Industrial Branch. VA = Value Added. GPV = Gross Production Value. (a) Provisional. (b) Does not include furniture industry.  Table 7A-12 SELECTED AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 PRODUCTS Q V Q V Q V Q V Q V Chestnut 1,960 1,172 1,844 1,450 2,.209 2,627 2,324 2,764 Rubber 1,602 1,351 1.609 2,795 2,298 4,000 2,309 4,119 t\bod 48,. 721 10,917 32,878 8,624 40,044 9,139 32,306 7,352 44,372 10,649 Sugar 41,411 20,899 54,846 23,553 141,960 40,052 110,932 22,892 36,514 7,251 Meat 146 80 80 s.i (0.) Tanned alligator and I lizard hides 26.8 755 24.3 1,503 13.7 993 IV co ()) (a) Id. sheep 0.4 20.4 2.1 21.2 6.4 26.4 I (a) Id. goat 0.5 4.4 1.7 16.9 0.6 3.5 (a) Id. taitetu and pig 14.1 141.4 24.0 376.3 19.2 297.4 (a) Salted, d"'ied o::M hides 180.5 52.8 916.4 686.3 511.1 257.5 (a) Id. in \\let-blue 245.0 227.3 252.1 217.3 (a) Untanned sheep hide 9.9 5.4 (a) capihuara hide 3.9 27.5 Cbtton 20,807 21,477 25,774 20,358 9,466 12,187 9,435 13,489 s.i. s~1 SOUOCE: National Statistics Institute and Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. Q = Quantity in tons V = Value in thousands of U$8. (a) = for 1978 only the first 'semester is comprised. .. .. .t: ,. .; .. '" .. .. .. '"' ill ~ "' "' ,. . ~  APPENDIX 78 DEFINITION OF ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS  Appendix 7B DEFINITION OF ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS CONTENTS Method of Formulating Development Patterns 288 The 1989 Development Pattern 291 1999 Development Pattern A 292 1999 Development Pattern B/C 292 1999 Development Pattern D 295 Projects Included in Development Patterns 296 Agriculture - Development Pattern 1989 297 Industry - Development Pattern 1989 298 Mining - Development Pattern 1989 300 Agriculture - Development Patterns C and D 302 Industry - Development Patterns C and D 302 Mining - Development Patterns C and D 303 TABLE Number Page 7B-1 Alternative Development Pattern Projects 289 FIGURES Follows Number Page 7B-1 Development Pattern 1989 291 7B-2 Development Pattern A (1999) 292 7B-3 Development Pattern C and D (1999) 294 -287-  Appendix.7B DEFINITION OF ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS To foresee future transport needs, it is necessary to have a clear idea about the future characteristics of the country's economy, including its population distribution, agricultural and industrial development. As no physical development plan currently exists for Bolivia, the Study had to make its own predictions of possible ways in which the economy might develop. This has been discussed in Working Paper 46a, from which some excerpts are repeated in the following pages. Method of Formulating Development Patterns Given the generous provision of natural resources and the relatively small supply of labor and capital, Bolivia can- not expect to develop all her resources within the next twenty years (1). Somehow a choice has to be made, and will be made, between the numerous opportunities competing for investment and manpower. A pattern of development will emerge, but what it will be is difficult to predict. It will result from political and ~conomic pressures. It will reflect the judge- ment and speculations of the day. It will not necessarily be rational nor, in retrospect, commendable. New mineral deposits mayor may not be found. The decision to go ahead with either mineral or agricultural projects may hinge on world prices at the time and on market forecasts that could easily go astray. Hence it would be unrealistic, and more so in Bolivia than in most countries, to expect to identify a future develop- ment pattern that was logical, optimal or probable. In reali- ty there are many possible development projects, which could occur in anyone of innumerable permutations and combinations. Development "strategies" can be conceived based on broad prin- ciples and philosophies, but there is no reason to believe that any such strategy will be adopted and consistently fol- lowed. (1) See The Bolivian Economy Durin~ the Next two Decades, Working Paper 45, Bolivian Nat10nal Transport Study. -288-  Table 7B-1 ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT PATTERN PROJECTS PERCENT COMPLETE 1989 PROJECT INCLUDED.IN PATTERN PROJECT NAME NUMBER "An "C/D n NUMBER Agricultural Forest Development Continuing 1 x x Cattle Development Continuing 2 X X San Ingnacio de Velasco 100 13 San Javier 100 12 Valles Mesot~rmicos 100 10 Rositas o X 45 Abap6-Izozog 25 15 X X Gran C!1aco 25 18 X X Ulla-Ulla 100 3 Ingavi 100 6 Misicuni 25 8 X X San Julian-Chan~-Pira1 100 11 Rur:o::enabaque 30 4 X Chimor€! 100 9 Villamontes 13 16 X X San Jacinto 15 17 X X ICLA Pilcomayo o X 46 Challapata 100 7 Tucavaca 50 14 X X Alto Beni 100 5 Bala a X 47 Yacuses 100 22 Sevaruyo 100 28 Fabrica de Cemento (Tarija) 100 20 Proyecto Automotriz 60 26 x X Hilanderla de Algod6n 100 23 Karachipampa 50 25 x X Arnpliaci6n Baja Ley Vidrio Plano 100 100 29 32 '. Aquila 80 31 30 x X .. Utiles de Roscar 100 Petroqu1micos de Po11mero a X 48 Planta de Gas 100 21 Aceite Vegetal 100 24 Programa Siderurgico 25 27 X Fertilizantes en Palmazola a X 50 Procesamiento de Frutas 100 19 Catavi 100 40 Centenario 100 39 Playa Verde o X 51 Relaves El Renko 100 38 Integral Bolivar 100 35 Planta Flotacion Colquiri 100 34 Uyuni 30 41 x x Sud L1pez 100 42 Mutun 25 43 x Farallones-Kellwani 70 33 X X El Rodeo 60 37 .K X Preciimbrico o X 52 La Palca 100 44 r~achacamarca 100 36 -289- ...  In the shorter run, to 1989, many developments are al- ready committed or being planned. The range of possibility is limited by the time and investment available. Economic growth in the early 1980s is expected to be restricted by the international recession and by Bolivia's external debt. It is therefore not too difficult to predict the development pat- tern in 1989. There is not much danger of being wildly wrong. In 1999, the three development patterns were chosen to reflect some broad differences of scale and direction of de- velopment. The size of the gross domestic product (GDP) is as unpredictable as its distribution. Hence a range of GDP assumptions was incorporated in the alternative patterns: Alternative C was given the official (Central Bank) assumption of GDP, Alternative A 10 percent lower and Alternative D 20 percent higher. A second element of variation was the emphasis on pri- mary or secondary production. This was related to the dif- ferences in GDP because secondary industrial development, i.e. manufacturing, is generally the more capital-intensive. Therefore Alternative A has a greater emphasis on the develop- ment of primary production in the form of agriculture and min- ing, Alternative C introduces greater industrial investment and Alternative D takes it much further still. The third principal contrast is in regional distribution. Alternative A represents a continuation of recent trends, with growth concentrated heavily in a few areas. Alternative C incorporates more regional development intended to spread economic prosperity more evenly between different parts of the country. Alternative D contains the same regional develop- ment projects but, having a much greater GDP, concentrates its additional product in an industrial axis from La Paz through Cochabamba and Santa Cruz to Mutun. In order to help formulate these development patterns, a thorough search was made for all development projects being considered or suggested, however tentatively, throughout the country. The most important of these are described in another document (2) 1 they formed the raw material from which the pat- terns were made. The way in which the selected development projects were incorporated into the zonal projections of socio- economic variables is described in Working Paper 49 (3). (2) Quantification of 40 Major Development Projects, Working Paper 47, Bolivian National Transport Study. (3) Forecast and Distribution of Socio-Economic Variables, Working Paper 49, Bolivian National Transport Study. -290- The 1989 Development Pattern Numerous developments are currently in progress or are strongly committed. They will absorb much of the development potential until 1989 and therefore enable one to predict fair- ly well the scale and nature of economic development in 1989. As shown in Figure 7B-1,&me 44 major projects were included, of which 18 were agricultural. Schemes to be completed by 1989 are located at San Ignacio de Velasco, San Javier, Valles Me- sot~rmicos, Ulla-Ulla, Ingavi, Chimor~, Challapata and Alto Beni. Other agricultural projects due to be underway but not completed by 1989 are at Abap6-Izozog, Gran Chaco, Misicuni, Rurrenabaque - San Buenaventura, Villamontes, San Jacinto and Tucavaca. Agricultural projects tend to take a very long time to implement fully and many of these projects will continue their development right through the 1990s, especially those involving the construction of dams. Apart from major defin- able projects, there are numerous areas where agriculture is steadily expanding and will probably continue to do so. Most important is the cattle development in the Beni, the cultiva- tion of various foodstuffs in the Yungas and Valleys to feed the growing populations of La Paz and Cochabamba, the expan- sion of corn, sugar and horticultural production around Santa Cruz, and the prqduction of a wide variety of fruits in Tarija. In the mining sector there are 12 major projects of which 8 should be completed by 1989, at Catavi, Centenario, Relaves El Kenko, Integral Bolivar,Colquiri, Sud Lipez, La Palca and Machacamarca. The development of MutGn is important. There are also 14 major industrial projects, including the automobile project at Cochabamba, which will continue in- to the 1990s, cement plants in Oruro, east Santa Cruz and Ta- rija, paper factories in Santa Cruz and Tarija, steel in San- ta Cruz, textile and glass factories, and plants for the pro- duction of vegetable oil and processed fruit. Most important is the development of natural gas for export, on which the growth of the whole economy depends. In addition to these major projects, which have been taken into account individually in the formulation of the de- velopment pattern, there will of course be innumerable smaller developments, which have been predicted in a more aggregated way. A prime objective in this work was to produce a detailed socio-economic forecast, zone by zone, consistent both with the macro-economic predictions, especially the GDP prediction of 117,500 million pesos (1977 pesos), and with the major develop- ment projects that will contribute towards those predictions. -291-  LEGEND • Principal Growth Center • Secondary Growth Center ..... Industrial Center • M'Mrol ProcessinG "';'-::~:~;2~?:%:--. ~'" -::r III • Natural :-;:.:;::::::::: For •• t Gas Production Products \, ~ " ~ <' I l '/1/1/ Aericultural Development I mprovement of Aoric ulture \'::: Production and ProcesSIng , • , •• of Cattle. ~ ~Ineral Production Number 1 . ~#/III f.£ @.(/t/l-- -- \ ''c., \ I \ , \ I SUCRE '~ PA RAG U AY ,TAR I"'\..., ~ £:' ~ _ _ IUI_. . . \. \ t .@ --- / ;' \ \/ )~/ \ , \j '-~ N ~ A RG ENTIN A ? ;0 IS~ I~S ~iO km. DEVELOPMENT PATTERN 1989 FIGURE 78-1 1999 Development Pattern A The first of the three patterns is pessimistic about economic growth. GDP at 181,300 million pesos (1977) repre- sents a growth of 54.3 percent since 1989, which is only 15.4 percent per head. This relatively low growth is partly the result of low investment and it also limits the amount available for future investment, which in 1999 is estimated at 36,300 million pesos. Major projects, shown in Figure 7B-2, are largely in the agricultural sector with the continuation of the Abap6-Izozog, Gran Chaco, Misicuni, San Buenaventura, Villamontes, San Ja- cinto and Tucavaca developments. No major new agricultural projects are included. Mining developments continue at Uyuni, Farellones - Kellwani and El Rodeo butnot much expansion at Mutdn is fore- seen in this Alternative. Little industrial investment is included. The major pro- jects are continuations from 1989, namely the automobile pro- ject, the Karachipampa chemical complex and the Aquila che- mical works. In the all-important field of hydrocarbons a considerable increase in gas production is foreseen, while pe- troleum output declines. The lack of major projects in this alternative means that much of the economic growth, such as it is, consists ·of small unidentifiable developments in all three sectors, agriculture, mining and industry. A general growth of production is in- corporated, consistent with the macro-economic predictions. Because of the low growth in income per head, there is neces- sarily an emphasis on agricultural development. This development pattern does not reflect eith~r the hopes or the expectations of the Study. It is a pessi~i8tic view of the future containing a slow and unenterprising ex- ploitation of the country's resources. It represents the minimum conceivable demand for transport facilities in 1999. 1999 Development Pattern B/c As already stated, the pattern initially put forward as B differed so little from that produced independently as C that the two were merged into one and can be called Alternative C. This is the most important of the alternatives because it conforms with the Central Bank macro-economic predictions and can be regarded as the most likely or most feasible pattern of the future. -292-  Alternative C assumes that by 1989 the Government will be organized to make rational economic decisions to promote '. production in certain industries, particularly those utiliz- ing national resources such as agriculture, livestock, minerals and hydrocarbons, and that productive resources will be better distributed to permit a high level of employment. Various re- gions, e.g. Abap6-Izozog, Chan~-Pira!, Villamontes, San Julian and North La Paz, have been selected for agricultural develop- ment. Developing countries have intensified their search for "I solutions to their economic and social handicaps, recognizing that this is a common problem for the whole international com- munity. Variou~ conferences, in Bandung, Belgrade, Cairo, Lusaka, Algiers and Lima, have gradually developed a doctrine based on general standards that could underpin a just and equitable international economic order. In 1974, the United Nations General Assembly approved the Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of Nations. In 1975, Bolivia was a signatory to the International Strategy for Industrial Development which took as its starting pOint the pattern and structure of inter- national trade. This resulted in the Action ,Plan of Lima which presented a series of agreed measures, at national, sub- regional and international level. Of interest in the present context was the formulation of a long-term plan for the pro- motion of trade between developing countries, trade agree- ments with industrialized countries, and economic harmoniza- tion, especially in the industrial field, backed up by con- crete measures and effective national bodies to evaluate, re- fine and execute the plan. In the case of Bolivia, economic harmonization and inter- national agreements must follow a path of negotiation proceed- ing from the national level to that of the Andean Group, then to the Free Trade Association of Latin America (4). and,' fin~lly to the rest of the Third ~7orld. The UNIDO is making various studies to implement the Lima agreements and to identify, by studying a large sample of countries, typical growth paths and the sort of changes, and their pace, that occur in the structure of industry. Messrs. Singer, Tinberger and Vaitsos have studied the Lima initiatives (5) and the UNIDO has de- veloped a model of world industrial cooperation which will lead to a regional model called LIDO (Lima Industrial Develop- ment Objective) designed to evolve and evaluate schemes for realizing the Lima objectives. (4) On August 11, 1980 in l-bntevideo this was repla,cedpy a n~ orqaniza- tion, ALADI (Asociaci6n LatinoarOOricana de Integraci6n). (5) Industry and Developnent, Special issue for the '!hird General Con- ference of UNIOO, New York, April 1979. -293- f j  • LE .I N9 .• ",iftCipol Growth Center $ecOndOf'Y Growth Ceo'er !Atlu.triol C.nt.r Min,roi Procellln\! • 1 Natural GOI Production F., lit Pr..,cfl '1111t Aoricultural Oe",lopm.nt ..... ••••• ••••• ~ Production and Proc.ssing .f CaU I•. "" , < ~ 'I:I/!it¥II" Min.ral Production ~,,~,~~I N_b. ~ \, \ -----( / { \ \ ~ -----~-- t / I PARAGUAY ~ ~, I r .J '-- I J \;", ---' N ~ A R • • • TINA o 50 100 150 200 km DIVELOPMENT PATTERN A (I'.) Wb..., _~tA - ' ~j3OCiAt.j FIG U R E 7 B-2  Alternative C rests on the Lima objective of accelerat- ing industrial growth in order to improve the pattern of in- ternational trade. This in turn implies a reconsideration of the policy of the Andean Group which was the outcome of a narrower set of intentions. The broad lines of Alternative C may be expressed as follows: (a) State control of natural resources, and their exploitation in order to achieve industrializa- tion; (b) Strengthening of trade programs, with complementary agreements within the Andean Group and LAFTA; (c) Large-scale promotion of farming in order to pro- vide employment; (d) Creation of steel, petrochemical and engineering industries to reduce the need for imports; (e) Exploitation of the potential value of natural re- sources, especially agriculture, by development of associated processing industries; (f) Establishment within the Andean Group of engineer- ing, electrical and chemical industries and expan- sion of the range of manufactures for mass consump- tion such as foodstuffs, construction materials, textiles, leather and other light manufactures; (g) Incentives for small businesses and craft trades; (h) Establishment of negotiating machinery for questions of foreign trade. The development projects in Pattern C were selected in accordance with the above objectives and are shown in Figure 78-3. In addition to these major, identified projects, there are many smaller ones that should conform to the same stra- tegy, which may be summarized as follows: (a) The exploitation of land, forest and mineral de- posits under State control should avoid unreasonable deterioration and rapid depletion. A degree of in- dustrial processing before exporting is highly de- sirable; therefore the mineral smelting projects are included, as also the plans for steel and pe- trochemical industries. -294-  (b) Settlement in selected colonization areas should be accelerated under a planned program for produc- tion of foodstuffs suitable for industrial proces- sing, preferably cereals and others now being im- ported. (c) Industries should be set up to exploit the output of meat, timber, citrus fruits and milk, including small workshops and craft industries. (d) The steel program should be initiated on a reduced scale, using iron from Mutun and setting up forging, smelting and metal engineering plants. (e) As a multinational operation, the petrochemical industry should be an important step toward the es- tablishment of basic industries. (f) Development of potential mineral resources, par- ticularly in the Precambri'an area, should merit priority. Alternative C comprises all the major projects in Alter- 'I native A plus some important additions; the Rositas, Pilcoma- yo and Bala agricultural projects are included. Mineral de- velopment at Playa Verde and in the Precambrico are included and output from Mutun is expanded. In. the industrial sector, the major additions are the petrochemical, fertilizer, steel and palm oil plants. In addition there is generally higher output from most sectors of production, especially industrial sectors and natural gas. 1999 Development Pattern D The main purpose of Pattern D was to explore the impli- cations of a much faster rate of growth. Income per head .,. rises between 1989 and 1999 by 53.7 percent, compared with 28 percent in C and only 15.4 percent in A. The higher national product implies higher output in most industries but especial- ly in gas, processed food, building materials and non-ferrous metals, for domestic consumption, and in export industries such as meat, other animal products, non-ferrous minerals, iron and timber. The broad strategy in Alternative D is the same as in C but the pace is faster and hence the emphasiS on the industrial axis between La Paz and Mutun is greater. Rising incomes lead to a much faster growth of demand for manufactures than for food, and especially for better housing and for transport. -295.~  LEGEND • Principal Growth Center • Secondary Growth Center .... Industriol Center • Mineral Processing .I. Natural Gas Production ~ Forest Products '///// Agricultural Dl¥tlopment I ..... ....-. ...... , , '~ ( , . .. . . . . .. .. . . .. . .. . .. .. . . . . fj ~ 'fl. ~ ' , V r •.~. •• .. .. ..~..... ... ....... .. .. ~ • *s· . <i>'. e,. . . . . .. .. *s *. . ........ *. .. . ........ .. •••••••• . *................... *••: ••••••• •• • a.. • ••• • • ...... . . . s.* • • • • • Ss Ss •••• *. *, • t .. .. .. .... . ....... . , ,s. Sse.-. *. *.s. *sa::.s••:. ·.TR INt D~D 1M .. ' ' IJE\ V ~ ....... ,'.•• ~ ,.~#'.................. ............. •• ' •• s. s. s•• . . . . . . . . *1 .... _ a. a.......: • w;;....- # 8 COCHABAMBA @ a..~ ~~ ..... PA RAG U A Y ARS ENTINA ? 50 100 1 0 ~qo km. 1 DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS CaadD (1999' UAL,.~-J..A~l#j FIGURE 78-3 This high rate of economic growth is hardly feasible unless a much bigger share of industrial demand is met domestically: hence the emphasis on industrial development. No new major projects are added to this pattern, not be- cause there would not be any but because they have not yet been conceived. As is detailed in Working Paper 49, major expansion of numerous industries is involved but individual development projects, additional to those already incorporated in Alternative C, have not been identified. A big growth in meat output and export from the Beni is assumed, together with other animal products. Wheat output from Tucavaca eliminates imports of this cereal. In the mineral sector there is a major development of Mutan and in the output of building materials, also of non-metallic min- erals. In the industrial sector there is general growth but especially in flour and grain products, wood and wood pro- ducts, chemicals, manufactured building materials and cement, steel and fabricated metals, and - though still on a small scale - in vehicles and machinery. To make this pattern feasible, major expansion of exports is assumed in meat, animal products and timber through the Amazon, in minerals, iron pellets and chemical down the Rio Paraguay, and in processed foodstuffs~ Projects Included in Development Patterns The following pages provide a brief description of the projects included in the 1989 and 1999 Development Patterns. Many of the projects described in the 1989 Pattern carry forward to the future year, and the description is not repeated for these alternatives. The numbers correspond to the project numbers shown on Figures 7B-1 to 7B-3. -296-  DEVELOPMENT PATTERN 1989 (See Figure 7B-1) Agriculture 1. Forestry Exploitation - Improve the exploitation of fine wood and construction wood and the administration of forests in order to prevent the destruction of these re- sources. '... 2. Cattle Development - Improvement of production, slaughtering techniques, and preservation of meat (including improvement of sanitary conditions) . 3. Ulla Ulla Project - Increase the number of vicunas and alpacas, and the production of alpaca wool. 4. Rurrenabaque - Agro-industrial development between Rurrenabaque and Ixiamas, for the refining of sugar and other • industrial activities. 5. Alto Beni - A greater emphasis on cacao plantations and the processing of the seed for semi-processed products such as cocoa paste and cocoa butter. 6. Ingavi - A cattle raising and agricultural project, stressing the implementation of dairies. It is planned to decrease sheep-raising and to increase dairy cattle produc- tion. Other projects include genetical improvement of cattle and forestation experiments. 7. Challapata - A darn is proposed together with work on irrigation infrastructure for secondary and tertiary canals, and the commercialization of the future production of alfalfa. 8. Misicuni - A long-range irrigation project is being studied. However, during the 1980's only 25 percent of this project will be completed, mostly in studies and initial ex- periments. 9. Chimor~ - Reorganization of agricultural and cattle exploitation, substitution of coca crops by others with a greater yield. Reforestation is also included, utilizing the I area of an abandoned human settlement project. 10. Valles Mesot~rmicos - Redistribution of land owner- ship as well as development improvement and the construction of feeder roads. -297-  11. San Juan-Chan~-Pira! - San Juan is a colonization project in execution based primarily on cattle development and secondly on agriculture. Chan~-Pira! is a spontaneous colonization zone. Improvement of agricultural development centered around the Unagro sugar mill and the cultivation of rice and soybean are planned. 12. San Javier - Improvement of agricultural develop- ment and milk production associated with a cheese factory located in the same area. 13. San Ignacio de Velasco - Cattle and agricultural project, with production of tobacco leaves, vegetables and corn for animal consumption. Some forestry development is included (morado, moradi1lo and others). 14. Tucavaca - Colonization project to be initiated in the 1980's with agricultural development and forestry produc- tion, as well as provision of a road and agricultural infra- structure for future settlements. 15. Abap6-Izozog - Both the irrigation project and the colonization settlements are, as yet, in experimental stages. 16. Villamontes - Irrigation project to open lands for cultivation of soya to supply theexi~ting vegetable oil fac- tory. 17. San Jacinto - Integrated development of the central valley of Tarija, including irrigation, forestation, roads, etc. 18. Gran Chaco - Irrigation and cattle project. Industry 19. Fruit Processing Project - This project is located in the central valley of Tarija, a zone that offers all the necessary conditions for fruit growing. The canning facilities for these products are planned to produce approximately 17,000 tons annually. 20. Cement Factory - It will be located in El Puente, Mendez Province, Tarija Department. Its production capacity will be 50,000 tons of cement annually. The cost will be approximately 39 million U.S. dollars. 21. Gas Plant - Recovery of gas for nationwide distribu- tion. -298-  22. Yacuses - A cement factory which will be located in Chiquitos Province, Santa Cruz Department. It will produce 250,000 metric tons, much of which will be exported to Brazil. 23. Cotton Mill - The installation of equipment for cot- ton textile fabrication. The production is planned to reach 7,896 tons annually. 24. Vegetable Oil - This facility is part of the indus- trialization of certain agricultural products grown in the vicinity of Santa Cruz. 25. Karachipampa - There are two major projects to be developed in the Karachipampa zone, located 7 km outside the city of Potos!. The first one con~ists of a plant for the processing of lead and silver. It will have a combined pro- duction of 22,800 tons of metallic products and the invest- ment value will be 154 million U.S. dollars. The other pro- ject consists of the production of zinc metal with sulphuric acid and phosphated fertilizers as sub-products. Its over- all production is planned to be 194,735 tons per year, with an investment cost of 234 million dollars. 26. Automotive Project - This project is an assignment of the Andean Pact. It consists of the construction of vehicles in the two-ton, three-ton and nine-ton categories. The investment will amount to 500 million U.S. dollars. This plant will be located in the Industrial Park of Santivafiez, Cochabamba. 27. Iron and Steel - Based on the iron ore deposits at Mutun, the proposed iron and steel axis consists of the fol- lowing: first, pellets will be produced at Mutun, with 750,000 tons for export to Argentina and 250,000 tons for in- ternal consumption. The reduction furnace will be located in the industrial park of Santa Cruz and the forging of the steels will be in Cochabamba. The combined production will amount to approximately 100,000 tons of steel per year. 28. Sevaruyo Cement Factory - This factory will be located in the Abaroa Province of Oruro. It will produce about 250,000 tons of cement. The investment will amount to 35 million U.S. dollars. 29. Plant Expansion for Tin Processing - This facility will process low content tin ore. It is part of the Vinto metallurgical complex. Approximately 10,000 tons of tin will be produced annually at an investment cost of 65 million U.S. dollars. -299-  30. Metal Tools - This project was assigned to Bolivia under the Cartagena Agreement, and it will be located in the Department of Oruro. 31. Aquila - This a multi-national project involving Bolivia, Colombia, and Argentina and is oriented to the Andean Pact for the production of fertilizers. It will be located in the La Paz Department and its production will be 32,000 tons annually. 32. Flat Glass - This project is located in La Paz and will produce flat glass under Polish standards. The produc- tion is estimated at 5,000 tons with an investment of 7.6 million U.S. dollars. Mining 33. Farallones - Kellwani - This is a project for the exploitation of mineral placers which contain a low content of tin. 34. Colquiri - This project utilizes the tailings of the Hornuni mill accumulated during a period of nearly 40 years. The tailings contain about 8.5 million tons with 3.88 percent zinc content, 9.45 percent tin and 9.46 percent of silver. A flotation plant with capac~ty of 2,000 tons per day is planned. This project will extract exportable quan- tities of zinc and silver and tin concentrates. 35. Bolivar Integrated Project - This project considers the transformation of an existing system of exploitation and extraction to another system named "nackless". Construction of a flotation plant with capacity for 500 tons per day for the production of commercial concentrates of lead, silver, zinc and tin powder is included. 36. Machacamarca - A furnace will be located in Macha- camarca which will produce 230 tons of tin concentrates per day. 37. El Rodeo - This is a tentative project regarding the possible exploitation of low mineral content tin deposits located north of Potosi. 38. El Kenko - Exploitation of tailings contained in the Kenko Lake No.1. The extractions will be processed at the casiterite plant of "Kenko"which is located about 98 km southeast of Oruro. The production will be 2,417 fine tons of tin per year. -300-  39. Centenario - This secondary mineral deposit has been known since the last part of the past century and it is one of the largest in the country. Recent investigations indicate the feasibility of exploitation through the use of a dredging system. An investment of 37.6 million U.S. dollars is required for the production of 8,437 tons of fine tin. 40. Catavi - This is a project to investigate exploita- tion of 77 million of gross tons containing 0.31 percent of "II tin. .* 41. Uyuni - Processing plant of iodized salt that will be located in the Salar de Uyuni. The cost is 1,250,000 U.S. dollars, the production will be 8,000 tons per year. 42. Sud-L!pez - Tentative project for the exploitation of proven sulphur deposits. 43. Mutun - In 1972, COMIBOL installed a pilot plant for the exportation of iron concentrates to Argentina. SIDERSA is at present improving these facilities for the export of 100,000 tons per year of iron ore to Argentina via Corumb~ and the Pa- raguay River. 44. La Palca - This project utilizes tailings to produce '. tin of 30 percent content. It will produce 190 tons of tin concentrates per day, with an investment cost of 52 million U.S. dollars. -301-  DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS "c" AND "D" (1999) (See Figure 7B-3) Agriculture 47. Bala - This is a longe-range project consisting of a hydroelectric dam in the narrows of Bala on the Beni River. It will provide irrigation to serve future centers of migra- tion and will control the water supply of the Beni River. A possible metal processing plant, as well as Peru and Chile, are potential markets for the hydroelectric power generated. 46. Pilcomayo - The Integrated Pilcomayo Project on the Pilcomayo River consists of the hydroelectric development to generate approximately 96,000 kw of energy and provide irriga- tion of 50,000 hectares. .The combined production of oleaginous legumes, wheat, corn and garden vegetables is estimated at 272,000 tons per year. 45. Rositas - This is a multiple use project which takes advantage of the waters of the Rio Grande. It will have a generating capacity of 400,000 kw and an irrigation capacity of 165,000 hectares. Industry 50. Fertilizer Plant (Palmazola Fertilizers) - A cheap fuel such as natural gas is used to produce ammonia and urea for use in the domestic market. This plant will be located in Santa Cruz (Palmazola) and will have a combined production of 70,000 tons per year. 43~ Mutun - A very ambitious project has been formulated for the development and the reduction of Mutun from ore to pel- lets. It is fundamentally based on a study carried out by Arthur McKee and Company, which contemplates 410,000 tons an- nually of rolled iron and steel products for the Brazilian mar- ket, resulting from the agreements of cooperation signed bet- ween the Government of Brazil and Bolivia. Steel products will also be provided for the internal market. 26. Smelting and Forging - This project is part of the iron and steel complex of the Mutun for the production of rol- led steel and iron products for domestic use, especially those needed for metal-mechanic and automotive industries. -302-  48. Polymers (polymer petrochemical complex and inter- mediate products) - This project is related to the installa- "I tion of the petrochemical industry in the country. It is based on ethylene and propylene, which are obtained from ethane and propane (contained in natural gas).' It is tentative- ly planned to locate it in Cochabamba. Its combined production will be approximately 340,000 tons per year. Mining 51. Playa Verde - The Playa Verde resources are located under the primary deposits of Huanuni, Oruro Department, on ,,' the river of the same name. These minerals are presently ex- ploited in a very rudimentary manner. More efficient produc- tion methods are expected to be incorporated, and it is neces- sary to carry out a more complete evaluation. 43. Mutun - This project is related in its preliminary part to the main iron and steel project, which consists of using iron concentrates (65 percent pure metal) for the for- ging and smelting operations and for the exportation of concen- trates to Argentina. 52. The Precambrian Shield - This study on the Brazilian shield extends to the limits of the Cordillera Real Oriental. Its configurations .. are visible in the-northeastern section of .". the Department of Santa Cruz and to the east of Pando Depart- menta It covers an area of 220,000 km2, and is possibly rich in such minerals as tin, wolfram, gold, precious stones and rare metals such as ziI1conium and uranium. .., -303-  APPENDIX 7C FORECAST AND DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES  Appendix 7C FORECAST AND DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES CONTENTS In troduction 305 Trend Projection of Pupulation and Income 307 Distribution Goods Consumption and Supply/Demand 315 Goods Production by Zone 325 TABLES Number 7C-1 Summary of Socio-Economic Variables 306 1977,1989, 1999 Projections 7C-2 Population 1977, 1989, 1999 308 7C-3 Dispersed Population 1977, 1989, 1999 310 7C-4 Economically Active Population.1977, 1989, 1999 312 7C-5 Per Capita GDP 314 7C-6 Per Capita GDP 1977, ·1989, 1999 316 FIGURE:- Follows Number Page 7C-1 Districts Used in Socio-Economic Analysis 306 -304-  Appendix 7C FORECAST AND DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES Introduction The demand for and use of transportation facilities are directly related to levels of social and economic activity. For the purposes of a transport study, many of these activities are numerically represented by a few socio-economic variables. The selection of these variables depends on the characteristics of the study area and the availability of current and historic data. The following variables were selected for detailed quantification and are discussed in this Appendix: Total population Dispersed population Economically active population GDP per head Goods production Goods consumption. These variables were estimated first for 1977 and then projected to the 1989 and 1999 target years. The national projections for the six variables are given in Table 7C-1 and discussed in detail in Working Paper 41. The variables are used in the traffic generation and distribution models and must therefore be estimated for each of the 77 analysis zones adopted by the Study for each of the years under consideration. These projections reflect a trend forecast of the future development of the country. As discussed in the preceding Appendix, several development patterns were formulated in order to demonstrate the sensitivity of transport needs to the way in which the economy is developed. These alternatives, A, C and D, only apply to 1999. One development pattern was considered adequate for 1989. The socio-economic variables for 1999 were altered to reflect the differences in the four development patterns. To facilitate presentation of the data, the 77 zones were aggregated to 20 districts. These districts, as shown in Figure 7C-1 conform to Department boundaries with the exception of District 1, where the Beni Province of Vaca Diez was combined with the Pando Department. The zonal distribution of the variables is provided in a series of computer printouts included in Appendix 7D. -305-  Table 7C-1 SUMMARY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES 1977, 1989, 1999, Projections CHANGE 1977 - 1999 1977 1989 1999 Nurrber Percent Population 5,155,600 7,164,800 9,576,800 4,421,200 85.8 Dispersed population 2,556,100 3,037,990 3,485,730 929,630 36.4 Economically active population 1,660,130 2,401,400 3,354,130 1,694,000 102.0 I w GOP per capita, overall (1) 13,300 16,400 21,000 7,700 57.9 0 0'1 GOP per capita, dispersed population (1) 3,300 4,370 6,510 3,210 97.3 I GDP per capita, non-dispersed population (1) 23,200 25,330 29,300 6,200 26.8 Goods production and consumption {2l 17,422 41,048 59,000 4.1,578 238.7 {ll 1977 pesos. (2 l Thousands of tons. Includes irop::>rts and exports. SOURCES: Wilbur Smith and Associates Banco Central Insti tuto Nacional de Estadfstica. " ,j . • ~ w • ~ • . ~ M. .• .. ~ ~ ~. •• ~ ~ •• ~ . . ~ . ~ ~ •  1'\ D o LEGEND o Zone Centroid 47 Zone Number 9 District Number Q IJ , (' .\ G \' .\ '( \'\ .\ - - - REPUHL,' (' A :\ H C;E ;\" T T X .\ - . , OJSTRICTS USED IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FIGURE 7C-1  The following sections discuss the methodology, the assumptions and the data sources. As a working device, a trend projection was made first, which was then modified to reflect the alternative development patterns. The projection of population and income will be described first, followed by a detailed discus- sion of the forecasts of goods production and consumption. Trend Projection of Population and Income Distribution The socio-economic variables were developed for each of the 77 zones and 20 districts for 1977 and estimated on a trend basis for 1989 and 1999. This trend distribution provides the base on which specific development projects or other features are later superimposed to give the required developrrent patterns. Where no specific developrrent projects are required, the trend projections remain unchanged. Population Distribution - Population by province was available from the 1950 and 1976 censuses and was aggregated to the corresponding study zones and districts. The 1977 zonal population was estimated by uniformly applying a factor of 1.109 to the 1976 zonal population. This factor was derived from the difference between the results of the 1976 census (4,647,800) and the 1977 population estimate adopted for the Study (5,155,600). (1) The 1989 and 1999 populations by zone were projected at the annual rate of growth in each zone between 1950 and 1977. The zonal data were adjusted to conform to the 1989 and 1999 national totals of 7,164,800 and 9,576,800 respectively. The percentage increase in district population during the 1977 - 1999 period varies from a low of 23.3 percent in District 2, northern La Paz Department, to 275.2 percent in District 11, which contains the city of Santa Cruz and adjacent rural areas. With few exceptions, the area east of the Cordillera Real exhibits a higher rate of growth than the western portion. The population of Bolivia as a whole is projected to increase by 85.8 percent during this period, i.e. 2.85 percent per year. The 1977, 1989 and 1999 populations are summarized by district in Table 7c-2. Dispersed Population - The demand per capita for most goods and services is generally lower in rural than in urban areas because of the dispersed nature of the population, lower cash incomes and lack of infrastructure (transport, electricity, etc.). To reflect this situation, the dispersed population was estimated for 1977 and projected to 1989 and 1999 on a trend basis by district and zone. The dispersed population (1) Letter of January 25, 1979 from the Instituto Nacional de Estadlstica. -307-  111 Table 7C-2 . POPULATION '" 1977, 1989, 1999 & 1977 1989 1999 1977-1999 CHANGE 1977-1999 -. DIS'rRI..c:t,. POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION A.l'!NUAT. RA,'T'E ..Number .l'.ercent _ t11t 1 85,900 143,4~0 218,600 4.34 1.32,700 154.5 2 22,810 25,810 28,120 0,96 5,310 23. 3 '" 3 167;420 190,810 209;600 1. 03 42,180 25.2 4 996,490 1,435,090 1,92:t',560 - 3.04 931,070 93.4 • 5 246,690 292,650 332,070 1.36 85 1 380 34.6 ,. 6 212,880 291,040 373.,180 2,58 160,300 75.3 iii 7 13B,590 198,550 263,560 2,96 124,970 90.2 '\II 8 98,150 122 ~ 720 145,350 1,80 47,200 48.1, ,Ii 9 413,820 591,110 795,890 3.02 382,070 92~:3 'ltil 10 298,210 356,820 408,740 1.44 110,530 37.1 11 549,330 2.061,040 6.19 1.511,710 275.2 ,. 1,137,500 12 70,290 92,810 115,080 2.27 44 ,790 63.7 .. 13 100,190 135,840 172_ ,090 2.49 71,900 71.8 ,II 14 73,,410 84 ,580 9"3,810 1,12 20 ,400 27.8 15 345,240 448,750 552 ,460 2,16 207,220 60.0 " .jj 16 529 ,740 628,730 715 ,100 1. 37 185,360 35 .. 0 17 200,..910 224,110 241,900 0.85 40 ,990 20.4 " 18 231,280 1.50 89,670 19 278,990 320,950 38·8 '. 164,990 196,080 224,530 1.41 59,540 36.1 " 20 209~260 289,380 377,170 2.71 167,910 ,80.2 TOTAL 5~155,600 7,1.64.800 9~576,800 2 ,85 4,421,200 85.8 -J SOURCE: Workinq Paper 49. '. ." -308- !I/ includes all inhabitants not residing in cities or communities of any size as listed in the census results and in the publications for each department. (2) The 1976 dispersed population was obtained directly from census data and aggregated to the zone and district level. The factor of 1.109 was applied to the 1976 data to obtain the 1977 dispersed population. It was assumed that between 1977 and 1999 the dispersed population would decrease by 13.2 percent, i.e. an average of 0.57 percent per year. This was based on the decrease in rural population shown by the 1950 and 1976 censuses. The definition of rural population includes both dispersed population and inhabitants of villages containing 2,000 persons or less. Rural population is therefore slightly higher than dispersed population (57.9 percent of the population as against 49.6 percent). From the results of the two censuses it was estimated that although the dispersed population would increase, it would fall as a percentage of total population from 49.6 percent in 1977 to 42.4 percent in 1989 and 36.4 percent in 1999. The dispersed population is summarized by district in Table 7C-3 for the target ~ears. District 19, in southern Chuquisaca Depart- ment, conta~ns the highest percentage of'dispersed population, while District 4 which includes the city of La Paz, has the lowest. Economically Active Population - The analysis of economically active population is based on 1976 census data, which were extracted from computer tapes and aggregated to zones and districts, initially for five categories of activities - agriculture, mining, manufacturing, transport and communications, and others. The 1976 economically active, excluding unemployed and persons looking for work for the first time, totalled 1,494,900 persons which provides a participation rate of 32.2 percent. This is somewhat lower than expected. The number is believed to exclude family members who work but are not paid wages. This definition would probably affect the agricultural sector most. The census provides the only source of economically active population by geographic area and is considered adequate for study purposes. However, because of the relatively low participation rate of 32.2 percent, this rate was increased to 33.5 percent in 1989 and 35.0 percent in 1999. (2) Resultados Provisionales, Censo Nacional de Poblaci6n y Vivienda, Instituto Nacional de Estad!stica, 1977. -309-  Table 7C-3 D :SPLtSEn PO?ULA :'!Oli 1977,1969,1999 Trend Projections 1977 1989 1999 CHJ.I.NGE 1977 - 1999 Disper::1ed Dispersed Dispersed DISTRICT Number PerC'2r.t Number Percent Numb~r Pe:cccnt : Nv.:nber Percent ---- 1 44,520 51.8 70,030 48.8 ~6,590 45.1 5.1,070 121.5 2 19,260 84.4 20,G'50 80.0 21,930 78.0 2,670 13.9 3 140,770 84.1 152,000 79.7 158,040 75.4 17,270 12.3 4 2<':0,410 24.1 27 r. ,100 is,. 1 318,050 lo.G 77,640 32.3 5 200,770 81.4 225,340 77 .0 245,730 74.0 44,960 22.4 I 6 137,220 64.5 170,S90 61.5 21t.,:30 57.5 77 ,360 56.4 w I-' 7 65,860 47.5 87 ,3':; 0 1,',.0 110,690 42.0 44,830 68.1 0 I 8 84,750 85.3 1uO,620 9:.0 113,370 78.0 28,620 33.8 9 131,170 31.7 147,770 25.0 166,320 20.9 35,150 26.3 10 218,720 73.3 2'16,200 6.9.0 265,690 E5.0 46,970 21. 5 11 144,130 26.2 250,250 22.0 370,990 18.0 :<26,860 157.4 12 46,030 65.5 56,610 61.0 65,020 ::>:. '3 18,990 41.3 13 42,380 42.3 53,390 39.3 61,950 36.0 19,570 46.2 14 48, ~lOO 65.5 51,590 61.0' 53,000 55.5 4,900 10.2 15 127,310 36.9 143,090 33.0 1E5,740 30.0 38,430 30.2 16 3'16,23·:' 65.4 383,530 61.0 1G7,610 :,7.0 61.380 17.7 17 1:'4,3:;'0 55.9 11;: :550 52.9 118,290 018.9 3,9~0 3.4 18 141,310 61.1 lSJ,020 57.0 171,710 53.5 30,400 21.5 19 145,300 83.1 lf2,750 83. :J 177 r 380 7S.0 32,080 22.1 20 117,510 56.2 15J.,OEO 52.2 181,050 .t~ S. C 63,540 54.1 ----- 3,485,73\) 35.4 929,630 36.4 l'OIh.I. 2,556 , 100 49.6 3,02:7,9:;0 42.4 SUllO;: Wo;rk.ing Pafez 49. .. ,. iii . . .. .- .. .. iii: ,.i OJ, j Ii Ii .j .;; i + ,i '" .i '" :;j + "  The 1976 economically active population in each zone, was increased by a factor of 1.1105 to correspond to the 1977 population. It was concluded at this time that a single category of economically active would be adequate for modelling purposes and the five economic sectors were combined to provide the total for each zone and district. In order to obtain a zonal estimate of 1989 economically active, the 1977 participation rate was multiplied by a constant factor and this result was then multiplied by the 1989 population in each zone. The same procedure was utilized to obtain the 1999 economically active population. A factor of 1.04037 was used_n 1989 and 1.044 used in 1999. The constant factor was calculated by dividing the 1989 participation rate (33.5) by the 1977 participation rate (32.2). The 1999 factor was obtained by dividing the 1999 participation rate (35.0) by the 1989 rate (33.5). Zonal totals were adjusted manually to conform to the established control totals of 1,660,130 in 1977, 2,401,400 in 1989 and 3,354,130 in 1999. The economically active populations and corresponding partici- pation rates are summarized by district in Table 7C-4. Income - Little detailed information was found regarding income by geographic subarea. The 1976 census did not provide this type of information. For transport modelling it is necessary to provide a measure of income for both dispersed and non-dispersed population in each district and zone. Theoretically, the measure of income could be in several forms, such as household, family or per capita and further refined in such forms as gross and net, or disposable income. In lieu of a direct income measure, Gross Domestic Product (GDP or PIB) was utilized. Past trends and future projections of GDP were made available by Banco Central (3). In addition, the Ministry of Planning and Coordination had previously estimated GDP by department by major economic sector (4). Because of the lack of other definitive income data, per capita GDP was selected as the measure of income. As an initial step, it was necessary to estimate base year and future year per capita income for both dispersed and non- dispersed population. The Banco Central estimates of GDP were converted to 1977 Bolivian pesos and the per capita GDP computed for the base and the two future years. A previous study (5) has estimated the ratio of urban to rural income for the years 1958 through 1969 with the ratio varying from 6.64 in (3) (4) (5) -311-  Table 7C-4 Eco~ml:Cj."L:;:'Y ],cr P,;;:: PCPUE,'::'ICi'l 1977,1989,1999 Trend Projections 19i7 1989 1S?9 CP.ANGE 1977 - 1989 DIS'I'RICT NlJ1-IEER ~"""f7"-' r. r;c.;NIC:l RATE NU~BER PEP,CC;NT --- --- ;'..c'"'\_ ----- 1 26,550 ::1).9 45,900 32.0 72,440 33.1 45,890 .172.8 2 7,290 32.0 8,S90 33.3 9,770 34. 7 2,430 34.0 3 60,%0 36.4 7L,360 37.9 83,:,00 3,'.6 22,140 35.3 4 329,820 33.1 493,%0 34.4 694,650 36.0 3f4,83J .1j,0.6 I w 5 76,640 31. 1 ;J'i,97,) 3~ ~. " ;) 112,7S0 34.0 3'3,140 Ii 7.2 t-' tv 6 77 , 320 36.3 108,660 37.3 142,840 38.3 65,520 84. 7 I 7 40,690 29.4 60,6:;0 30.5 84,100 31.9 43,410 .106.7 8 35,660 36.3 45,750 37.3 55,650 38.3 19,990 56.1 9 127,600 30.8 188,9 .. 0 32.0 264,750 33.3 137,150 107.5 10 88,600 2~ .. 7 110,520 31.0 132,400 32.4 43,800 49.4 11 185,850 33,8 397,4',0 34.9 /·J6,720 36.2 560,860 301.8 12 20,910 29.7 28,650 30.9 37,010 32.2 16,100 77.0 13 28,930 28.9 4Q.8~O 30.1 ::>,,040 ::.• 4 25,110 86.8 14 21,180 28.9 25,3&0 30.0 29,430 31.4 8,250 J9.0 15 109,670 31.8 147,200 32.8 188,5:"() 31.1 73,880 71.9 16 171,510 32.4 2:0,6:;0 33.5 249,560 34. 9 78,030 45.5 17 58,530 29.1 67,980 30.3 7G,720 31.. 7 18,190 31.1 18 76,910 33.3 95,760 34.3 113,970 35.5 37,060 48.2 19 49,120 29.8 60,0:'.'0 31.1 73,900 32.9 24,780 50.4 20 66,380 31. 7 96,220 33.3 131,750 ::'l. 9 G5,370 98.5 TO'L'A:::' 1,660,130 32. I. 2,<:01,400 33.5 3,35;"1,13:) 35.0 1,69.),000 102.0 ~OORCE: Wo.l[king Pape.:r 49. . .- ... . .;i . ~ .. 'Ii .. .- .. .. . .i '" j i' " ... " :j. in 1962 to 8.50 in 1969. As a result of discussions with local staff, familiar with agricultural conditions in Bolivia, it is believed that the urban/rural income ratio has been decreasing and will continue to do so. This is largely a statistical consequence of poor rural inhabitants migrating to the towns. Therefore, a ratio of 7.0 was selected for 1977 decreasing to 5.8 in 1989 and 4.5 in 1999. Given estimates of GDP and the above urban/rural income ratios, the national averages were as shown in Table 7C-5.The per capita income values do not include the value of subsistence crops. The following equation was used to calculate the per capita GDP of the dispersed and non-dispersed population: RP x RI + UP x RI x F T T Thus RI = RP + F x UP and UI = F x RI Where: F = Ratio of non-dispersed to dispersed income UP = Proportion of non-dispersed population RP = Proportion of dispersed population UI = Non-dispersed population GDP RI = Dispersed population GDP R = Average national GDP. Per capita GDP was estimated for each zone by subjectively assigning a relative ranking to the dispersed and non-dispersed categories. The control total for the country was equated to 1.00 and each zone was ranked in relation to this. As a check on the control income, a weighted average of the zones within a district was calculated and then a weighted average of the districts calculated and compared with the control total. The following example using hypothetical zones and districts illustrates this process. A control mean per capita GDP of $b. 5,000 is used. DISTRIcr ~ POPUI..ATION RMI (1) (RU x 5,000) POP. x RMI RU WEIGHTED AVERAGE 1 1 4,000 .85 4,250 3,400 2 2,500 1.00 5,000 2,500 3 3,500 .90 4,500 3,150 10,000 4,550 9,050 .91 2 4 1,500 .70 3,500 1,050 5 6,000 1.18 5,900 7,080 6 5,500 1.06 5,300 5,830 13,000 5,350 13,960 1.07 Total 23,000 5,000 23,010 1.00 (1) RMI = Relative rrean incane rating. -313-  Table 7C-5 PER CAPITA GDP National Averages - Trend Projections CHANGE 1977-1999 1977 1989 1999 Nuwer Percent Dispersed Population 3,300 4,360 6,510 3,210 97.3 Non-dispersed Population 23,100 25,290 29,300 6,200 26.8 I w Total Country 13,300 16,400 21,000 7,700 57.9 I-' .1:00 I SOURCE: Working Paper 49. ":j! • k • ~ I • ~ •• • ~ .,. Ii " '" ;;i  The district per capita GDP is the weighted average multiplied by the income control total. In the example, for District 1 it is obtained by dividing 9,050 by 10,000 which gives the RMI of .91. The RMI (.91) is multiplied by the control income (Sb. 5,000) resulting in the district mean per capita GDP (Sb. 4,550). If the weighted average of the districts does not approximate an RMI of 1.00, the zonal figures must be adjusted to obtain balance. The future year per capita GDP was estimated by adjusting the RMI for each zone. The adjustment was made according to judgement on whether the zone would remain the same, increase or decrease in per capita GDP relative to the country as a whole. The same process was used in estimating per capita GDP of dispersed and non-dispersed population. The gross per capita GDP is given by district in Table 7C-6 for the base and target years. Goods Consumption and Supply/Demand Initially, indications of the consumption of movable goods are derived as a residual, from the equation: C = P + M- E Where: C Consumption, defined to include all domestic use of goods both in intermediate and final demand P = Domestic production of goods M = Import of goods E = Export of goods. In this manner estimates of goods consumption were derived for 1977. For the projections of goods consumption, however, it was found advisable first to identify that portion of each class of commodity which is attributable to intermediate demand, i.e., is used in one or more stages of production, not only of goods but also of services, and that which is attributable to domestic final demand in its several forms, namely, personal consumption, government consumption, fixed capital formation and net inventory change. Intermediate and final goods consumption were then extrapolated separately to the target years on the basis of projected measures of the factors that approximate the demand, and the results were then introduced into the supply/demand equations to evaluate the impact on the other three elements as defined above. It was then a matter of judgement to determine where adjustments should be made to satisfy the supply/demand equation while -315-  Table 7C-6 PeR CAPITA GOP 1977,1989,1999 (1977 Sbl Trend Projections 1989 1999 DISPERSED NON-DISPERSED DISPERSED NON-DISPERSED DISPERSED NON-DISPERSED DISTRICT POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION 1 6,420 14,780 6,190 15,170 9,110 17,580 2 1,650 B,090 2,090 8,850 2,930 10,260 3 4,130 12,010 5,230 13,150 7,680 15,240 I 4 4,120 27,260 5,580 29,340 7,940 32,820 w ...... 5 1,420 13,860 1,740 15,170 2,470 17,580 0"1 I 6 3,530 16,400 .4,710 16,440 7,100 19,340 7 5,640 21,950 7,150 23,010 10,870 26,660 8 2,670 16,170 3,530 17,700 5,210 20,800 9 5,710 25,640 7,240 28,070 10,810 32,230 10 3,630 20,330 4,750 22,000 6,830 25,200 11 7,660 25,410 8,790 27,820 13,480 32,520 12 5,120 20,100 6,840 22,000 9,900 25,490 13 4,750 19,870 6,370 21,500 9,440 24,900 14 5,050 18,480 6,760 20,230 10,160 23,440 15 2,150 22,640 2,620 24,780 3,910 28,420 16 1,490 18,250 1,870 19,980 2,670 23,150 17 1,090 12,710 1,310 14,160 1,820 16,410 ~ 8 2,440 23,560 3,050 25,540 4,560 29,010 19 1,580 16,400 1,960 17,960 2,860 21,100 20 2,900 21,020 3,790 22,510 5,530 25,780 CONTROL TOTAL 3,300 23,100 4,360 25,290 6,510 29,300 SC:jc;CE: Working Paper 49. .. //I if ... i< .. .. .. .. .. . .,« .,. ~ ;i .;, .. • still ensuring that the sum of the separate components equalled the control totals developed in the projections of gross domestic product. Because of this inter-relationship, it is preferable to discuss consumption in this separate section where it can be related to the supply/demand equation. Also, it is desirable at this point to present the greatest disaggre- gation of commodity classes used in the socio-economic analysis, which heretofore have been more aggregated to facilitate presentation. Initially, the commodity classification consisted of 56 classes, 18 in agriculture and forestry, 11 in mining and 27 in manufacturing. For modelling purposes, the 56 commodity classes could be combined to 39 categories. Because of the number of commodity classes involved, the explanation of estimates and projections of goods consumption will be presented in four groups, Le., agriculture, hydrocarbons, mining and manufacturing. Details by zone are given in the Appendix. Agricultural Supply/Demand - The output of agricultural activity consists of crops, livestock products and forestry products. Crops now account for 95 percent of agricultural output and are expected to maintain this percentage. Crops also account for 95 percent of agricultural consumption. The current supply/demand patterns for the 12 classes of agricultural product and the projections to 1989 and 1999 are given in Appendix 7D. The classifications are as follows: 1. Live animals 7. Other cereals 2. Meat and fish 8. Potatoes and other tubers 3. Other animal products 9. Fruit 4. Maize 10. Vegetables and plants 5. Rice 11. Sugar cane 6. Wheat 12. Other agricultural including industrial crops and fodder. The consumption of industrial crops including sugar cane is accounted for entirely by intermediate demand, since by definition they all require some industrial processing. Crops of this nature, which include coffee and cacao beans, soya and other vegetable products used to produce edible oils and meals, either for human or animal consumption, and cotton fiber, accounted for 55 percent of total crop production in 1977, due primarily to the bulkiness of sugar cane production. Projections of the consumption of industrial crops, because of their nature, were derived on the basis of projected production of refined sugar, for sugar cane, and of other food and textiles for the other industrial crops. -317-  The consumption of cereals, except corn, tends to be primarily accounted for by intermediate demand, since some milling is usually required to obtain a product suitable for human consumption. It was estimated, however, that slightly more than a tenth of cereal output, excluding corn, is milled rudimentarily by the consumer and thus is accounted for by final demand. In the case of corn, much is consumed as a vegetable or milled by the consumer. In any event, since the milled product is ultimately accounted for by final demand, consumption of cereals was directly related to population trends. • Between 1968 and 1977, the consumption of marketed cereals has remained unchanged at 146 kilograms per capita. Wheat and rice consumption per capita increased from 20 and 16 kilos per capita respectively, in 1968, to 35 and 19 kilos in 1977, while the consumption of corn of both varieties declined from 99 to 78 kilos and that of other cereals remained constant at 14 kilos. Because wheat consumption will still require imports in the future, it was assumed that its per capita consumption will remain at 35 kilos. The consumption per capita of other cereals was also assumed to continue unchanged. It was further • assumed that the decline in corn consumption will continue, as will the growth in that of rice, but that the net effect will be no change in the total cereal consumption of 150 kilos per capita. Therefore, by 1999, corn consumption per capita is expected to fall to 57 kilos while rice consumption rises to 43 kilos. Most of the supply of potatoes and other tubers, and the wide variety of other vegetables and fruit, either grown in Bolivi~ or imported is accounted for by final demand since • these crops do not require industrial processing. A proportion estimated at between 15 and 30 percent of the crop is, however, accounted for by intermediate demand for canning and preserving. The drying and dehydrating of potatoes typical of the Altiplano culture in Bolivia represents a final demand. The ultimate consumption of these crops is related to population, and consumption projections were derived from per capita trends. Tuber consumption per capita has declined from 210 kilos in 1968 to 203 kilos in 1977. It was assumed that this consumption would stabilize at 200 kilos in 1989 and 1999. The consumption of other vegetables declined from 50 to 38 kilos over the 1968-1977 period and it was assumed that this consumption would stabilize at 40 kilos per capita in the target years. On the other hand, fruit consumption per capita rose from 120 kilos to 132 kilos and it was assumed it would remain at about this level in the future. -318-  Application of the above assumptions to the projections of population and industrial output, as appropriate, result in the projected consumption reported in Ap'pendix 7D. Domestic crop production is likely to exceed projected consumption requirements, if recent trends continue, except for wheat, which will continue to require imports, and fodder, which is likely to equal demand. Livestock products represent 3 percent of agricultural output in terms of tonnage both produced and consumed, and are expected to remain at about this level. The current consumption of meat and fish is 28 kilos per capita. A special analysis of meat consumption performed in the Study indicates that meat consumption per capita will increase to 30 kilos by 1989 and 34 kilos by 1999. Aside from livestock imported for breeding purposes, it is anticipated that all meat production, to satisfy projected consumption, will originate from domestic livestock raising. The increased number of livestock will require more intensive grazing on existing pastures as well as extension of land devoted to grazing. A special analysis indicates sufficient potential to meet the anticipated demand. At present, a large quantity of the skins and wool produced when livestock are slaughtered is discarded. It is assumed that better methods of recuperation will be adopted when planned improvements are made in 5laughtering facilities, particularly in the Beni, to give greater utilization of skins and wool. '. Hydrocarbons - This group consists of commodity classes 13-17. Projections for classes 13, oil, and 14, natural gas, are taken from Working Paper 41 where they were considered in some detail. Class 15 is bottled gas which does not lend itself to importation or exportation. Domestic consumption is expected to rise rapidly. Class 16 is oil and lubricants which are largely related to the use of motor vehicles. Consumption is projected to rise at 8 percent a year, requiring an increase in refinery capacity if imports are to be avoided. It is assumed that by 1999 about a quarter of requirements will in fact be imported. Class 17 consists of refined products in the form of gasoline, diesel, aviation, kerosene and fuel oil. Large increases in consumption are inevitable from the transport industries but kerosene and fuel oil will be largely replaced by natural gas. Nevertheless some continuing consumption of the latter is likely. -319-  The projections of production and consumption of the hydrocarbon commodities are shown in Appendix 70. Solid Minerals SU Demand - Various types of metallic minerals and a ew non-metallic minerals, of which crude sulphur is the most important, presently form the principal source of Bolivia's export earnings. About 81 percent of the output of this mining activity is exported. Obviously, all domestic consumption of minerals is accounted for by intermediate demand, in effect, the input " requirements of existing and planned smelters and blast furnaces. The national smelting company, Empresa Nacional de Fundiciones (ENAF), has informed the Study of the production planned at its two major smelters, Vinto, in the Department of Oruro and Karachipampa, in the Department of Potos!, through 1984. (6) It is assumed that the same volume of tin and antimony, at Vinto, and lead, silver, zinc, antimony, tin, copper and bismuth, at Karachipampa, will be produced in 1989. For 1999 it is assumed that for metals currently smelted such as tin and antimony, the 1989-1999 rate of growth will be half that of 1977-1989, following ENAF's projections for 1984. A growth rate slightly higher than the projected rate for antimony smelting was postulated for the new metals to be smelted, lead, silver, zinc, tin and copper. The results of these assumptions for solid mineral extraction and domestic consumption are shown in Ap~ix7D.The categories included in this table are as follows: 18. Iron ore 19. Non-ferrous metallic minerals 20. Non-metallic minerals 30. Sand and aggregates 31. Lime and gypsum. Similar projections of future operations were not available from the national steel company, Empresa Siderurgica Boliviana, S.A. (SIDERSA). Iron ore production at Mutun was therefdre set at levels to satisfy a very modest export program (7). A more vigorous expansion of non-metallic minerals such as crude sulphur has been postulated as a complement to the prospects for metallic ores. (6) Letter No. 087/79, dated February 16, 1979. La Paz. (7) The Arthur B. McKee's Co. Study suggests exports of 500,000 tons of iron ore from Mutun by 1985 compared to 95,000 and 228,000 in 1989 and 1999 respectively, as estimated within the Central Bank control total. -320-  Lime and gypsum and other lower grade minerals (primarily sand and clay, but also including small amounts of salt) are presently not exported due mainly to the high transport costs. No information was found on the production of these commodities. It was therefore necessary to estimate the minimum output produced from the input requirements of the cement, other building materials (mainly bricks and tiles) and primary non- ferrous industries as reported by INE (8). In the case of lime input for the cement and primary non- ferrous industries, the INE data probably refers to crushed lime, not the tonnage of crude limestone quarried to produce crushed lime. Since the crushing usually occurs at the quarry, movement of the limestone in interzonal transport is probably not involved. However, limestone may be used in construction and, to the extent that this occurs in Bolivia, the estimates of lower grade minerals are understated, since no quarry output of dimension stone for construction is included, due to lack of information. Likewise, sand, gravel and crush stone used as aggregate in the construction of buildings, highways, railroads and other types of physical infrastructure are not included in the Ministry of Mining reports on mining output. Therefore the estimates of output in this class of lower grade minerals, being based solely on the input requirements of manufacturers of "other non-metallic building materials", may understate the total tonnages actually produced. Manufacturing Supply/Demand- The details of manufactured goods supply/demand are presented in three major groups: first, food, textiles, wood and paper products; second, petro- chemicals and related products; and third, non-metallic building materials and the various classes of metal-related products, designated as metal-mechanic products to approximate the Bolivian expression, "metal-mec.!nico". The commodity classes included in the manufacturing sector are as follows: 21. Sugar and confectionery 22. Flour and grain products 23. Beverages 24. Other food and tobacco products 25. Textiles 26. Wood and wood products 27. Pulp and paper products 28. Fertilizers 29. Other chemicals 32. Bricks, ceramics, concrete products and others 33. Cement (8) Instituto Nacional de Estad!stica, Estad!sticas Industria- les (Industrial Statistics), La Paz, 1975 edition. -321-  34 and 35. Primary iron and steel and other fabricated metals 36. Primary non-ferrous metals 37. Vehicles and transport equipment 38. Machinery 39. Miscellaneous manufactures. The first group includes seven types of commodities (n~ed 21 through 27). Four of the commodity types are the products of the general industrial grouping, food, beverages and tobacco products, which are heavily consumer-oriented. Less than 20 percent of the domestic consumption of food, beverages and tobacco products is used in intermediate demand, and this is due mainly to the use of flour by bakeries, estimated to account for almost half of the output of flour and bakery products. Otherwise, beverages are almost entirely consumed by final demand and other food products vary between 91 and 86 percent in the proportion accounted for by final demand. About 41 percent of textiles, apparel and leather products output is accounted for by intermediate demand but, as with flour and bakery products, this is due to further processing within the industry grouping. Ultimately, the production of these consumer non-durables is determined by personal consumption patterns. Therefore, the projection of consumption in this group of commodities was related solely to per capita trends. . 0 Per capita consumption of food, beverages and tobacco products increased from 162 kilos in 1968 to 193 kilos in 1977, and varied from an average annual rate of increase of 1.54 percent for beverages to 1.93% for both milled rice and coffee and other food and tobacco products. Adjusted to exclude food products used in intermediate demand, per capita intake of food products and beverages amounted to 153 kilos in 1977, when one includes farm products consumed without any industrial process, the total food intake is 540 kilos per capita, (about 1.5 kilos per day). To reflect the effect of rising incomes on food consumption patterns, it was assumed that during the 1977-1989 period, 80 percent of the differential between the rate of increase in gross domestic product and that of population would occur in the rate of increase experienced by a given type of food product in the 1970-1977 period. The equation used is as follows: Rot + 1 = (Rt + 1 _ Rt + 1) * R~ * f ~ y P ~ where: R~ + 1 = Average annual rate of increase in the ~ per capita consumption of the ith item in the t + 1 period defined as 1977-1989, -322:  Rt + 1 = Average annual rate of increase in gross Y domestic product in the t + 1 period, Rt + 1 = Average annual rate of increase in population P in the t + 1 period, R~ ~ = Average annual rate of increase in the per capita consumption of the ith item in the t period defined as 1970-1977, and f = The factor set to adjust the equation; in the instance of the 1977-1989 period, 0.8. For the 1989-1999 period, the full differential has been postulated and, therefore, f was set at 1 (with t + 2 to designate the later time period). In the case of textiles, apparel and leather products, there was a decline in the "consumption" per capita, from 22 kilos in 1970 to 21 kilos in 1977. It was postulated that by 1989 the per capita consumption of this class of goods would remain at 21 kilos, and by 1999 would increase to 23 kilos. For wood products and furniture, and the two classes of paper products, separate methods were used to project consumption by intermediate demand and domestic final demand. Intermediate demand for wood products, much of which is accounted for by processing within the industry group, represents about 53 percent of total consumption. In addition to some use by other manufacturing industries, a significant proportion of the intermediate demand for wood products is used in the construction industry. However, since projections of output and employment in this industry have not been made in the Study, total manufacturing production was used both as an indicator of intermediate demand consumption by that sector and as a proxy for such demand by construction. For the final demand portion of wood products consumption, which it may be noted includes furniture deliveries to business as one form of fixed capital formation, per capita ratios were used. In this instance, the following equation was adopted: R~ = Rt + ( (R t - Rt) * f) ~ p y. p Where: R~ ~ Average annual rate of increase in per capita consumption by final demand of the ith item in the tth period, = Average annual rate of increase in population in the tth period, = Average annual rate of increase in gross domestic product in the tth period, and f = Factor selected to modify the equation, set at 0.8 for 1977-1989, and 1 for 1989-1999. -323-  . .. Consumption of pulp and bulk paper products is entirely accounted for by intermediate demand, either as inputs to other paper products per ~, or to the printing industry. Projected consumption of pulp and bulk paper products was therefore based on projected production of other paper products. Intermediate demand for other paper products represents 83 percent of total consumption and occurs in connection with all types of economic activity. The projected growth in gross domestic product was therefore used as the base for projecting intermediate demand consumption of other paper products. Consumption by final demand was projected as described above for final demand consumption of wood products and furniture. The second group, petrochemicals, refers to three types of chemical products, three forms of refined petroleum products, rubber and miscellaneous plastic products. The basic plastics used to make miscellaneous plastic products are included with industrial chemicals, and these and refined petroleum products are often inputs to other industrial chemicals, fertilizers, other chemicals and rubber products, which include synthetic rubber products. Intermediate demand accounts for all consumption of indus- trial chemicals and fertilizers, 45 percent of other chemicals, 40 percent of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), 82 percent for 'I other refined petroleum products, and 77 percent of rubber and miscellaneous petroleum products. In general, this intermediate demand reflects input requirements of a broad spectrum of industries in addition to those represented in the further processing of these types of commodities. Therefore for all types, projections of intermediate demand consumption were based on projections of gross domestic product. The final demand portions of other chemicals, rubber and miscellaneous plastic products were projected in the same manner as described above for wood products and furniture. Eight categories are included in the third group of commodities. The class, miscellaneous manufactures, although it does contain some metal-based products such as instruments, is largely a collection of widely diverse manufactures with little in common, and not strictly one of the metal-mechanic grouping of commodities. It is included here mainly for convenience. Otherwise, this group refers to durable goods used either in industrial production or capital formation. -324-  Intermediate demand accounts for 83 percent of the consumption of cement and other non-metallic building materials, principally as inputs to the construction industry. Note that it is the output of the construction industry, residential and commercial buildings, highways and all types of physical infrastructure, that represent deliveries to the fixed capital formation component of final demand. All but an insignificant portion of primary metals consumption, both ferrous and non- ferrous, is accounted for by intermediate demand. Use in industry represents 53 percent of the tonnages of fabricated metals consumption, 34 percent of non-electrical machinery, 32 percent of electrical equipment and 27 percent of transport equipment. The high percentage of machinery and equipment consumption attributable to final demand is due mainly to fixed capital formation, i.e., the installation of machinery and equipment by industry. For miscellaneous manufactures, consumption by intermediate demand is also a less significant portion of the total, 28 percent. Projections of intermediate demand for cement and other non-metallic building materials were based on projected growth of gross domestic product, in the absence of forecasts of construction activity. No change was postulated in the small final demand consumption per capita of these two classes of commodities. Intermediate demand consumption of the two classes of primary metals was based on projected growth of production by the other metal-mechanic industries. Intermediate demand consumption of other metal-mechanic products and miscellaneous manufactures was projected in proportion to gross domestic product, while the final demand portion was treated as described above for wood products and furniture. Goods Production by Zone A total of 39 commodity classes were adopted for the purpose of modelling goods movements. Production in each class was estimated by zone for 1977 and projected to the years 1989 and 1999. The size of these matrices prohibits their inclusion in the text of this working paper. Therefore, for ease of presentation and clarity, the 39 categories have been aggregated to the four basic economic sectors. The goods production for each of the 39 categories for each of the 77 zones are included in Appendix 7D. The four basic economic sectors are as follows: 1. Agriculture including forest and livestock products 2. Hydrocarbons 3. Minerals 4. Manufacturing. -325-  '1 '. The following discusses the data sources and methodology employed to estimate and project these commodity categories at the zonal level. 1. A ricultural and Forestr The Ministry of Land Reform and Agriculture Ministerio de Asuntos Campesinos y Agricultura - MACA) provided the Study with special tabulations of agricultural production by department that were far more complete in the variety of crops covered than any available elsewhere. A special survey was conducted of agricultural extension agents in the field. This was supplemented by questions on the distribution of crop raising, livestock raising and forestry activity (as well as mining and manufacturing) in a special survey by the study of the regional development corporations (Corporaciones Regionales de Desarrollo). Data received from the extension agents covered about three-quarters of the 99 provinces into which Bolivia is organized for administrative and statistical purposes. With respect to crops reported by neither the extension agents nor the development corporations, MACA data for the Department were allocated by province on the basis of the distribution of similar crops, (e.g. oca and papalisas on the basis of potatoes and cassava, respectively.). For the missing provinces, the balance of MACA data on crop production by department was distributed on the basis of hectares under cultivation. In the dozen or ,so instances where provinces were split to form zones, provincial data were allocated on the basis of the approximate share of the total hectares involved, e.g. inspection of maps indicated that zones 5 and 6, which represent a split of Larecaja Province, contain approximately 60 and 40 percent respectively of the province's total area. A MACA study (9) served as the basis for the Department's details on cattle slaughtered and the weight of carcasses. The , other major livestock products, mutton and pork, were established ,-~ on a provincial basis on the basis of the extension agents' reports. Lesser livestock production, chicken and other fowl, llama, etc., is reported for the departments by MACA, and was allocated by province on the basis of sheep/pig marketings and mutton/pork carcass production. For missing provinces, hectares of pastures were used to allocate departmental livestock production not accounted for in the data reported for covered provinces. Total production of other livestock products such as wool and skins was allocated by department and zone on the basis of total animal livestock products. (9) Ministerio de Asuntos Campesinos, Bolivia, Producci6n, Comercializaci6n Procesamiento de Carne Bovina, (Production, Commercialization and Processing 0 Beef. La Paz, April 20, 1978. -326-  Another set of MACA studies (10) served as the basis for estimates of tonnages of Brazil nuts, crude rubber and logs, firewood and bark by department, and then by province and zone, using areas of forest as the allocation factor. 2. H drocarbons, Production b Zone - The extraction and refining 0 oil and natura gas ta e p ace in only a few zones. Statistics are good, the sources being the annual Anexos Esta- d!sticos and "Diez Allos de Estad!stica Petrol era de Bolivia, 1969-78", published by the YPFB. This information makes it simple to allocate national totals in 1977 to zones. The allocation of 1989 and 1999 totals has been done on the advice of the YPFB. Production projections are shown in Table 8 for 1989 and 1999 Development Pattern B. 3. Mining, Production by Zone - The Ministry of Mining and Metallurgy furnished the Study with details on the source of mining output by the type of mineral in varying degrees of detail. For COMIBOL, the geographical location of the mines was supplied so that the zone could be identified. All output data by COMIBOL were reported in both fine and gross tons. Output data for the intermediate mines were reported by company and by province, but only in fine tons. Data for total exports reported by the Ministry in both fine and gross tons were used to estimate output by the intermediate mines in gross tons from the reported fine tons by province. Output by the small mines was also reported by province and in fine tons, which were converted to gross on the basis of the export details reported for small mines in both fine and gross tons. Production details by province not identified on a zonal basis were then aggregated to zones as appropriate. The distribution by zone of lower-grade mineral production, lime and gypsum, and sand, gravel, clay and aggregates, was estimated from the location of industries using these commodi- ties as inputs, namely the cement, other non-metallic building materials and primary metals industries. Since no data are available on the volume of these minerals used directly in the construction industry, the estimates are based on the road, rail and river movement surveys. Mining production is shown in Table 9 with trend projections for 1989 and 1999. (10) Ministerio de Asuntos Campesinos y Agricultura, Centro de Desarrollo Forestal, Diagn6stico del Sector Forestal (A Diagnostic of the Forestry Sector), February, 1977; Pol!tica Forestal de Bolivia (Forestry Policy of Bolivia), September, 1978; Plan de Desarrollo del Sector Forestal en Bolivia 1978-1990 (Deveiopment Plan of the Forestry Sector of Bolivia 1978-1990), October, 1978; Producci6n Forestal (Forestry Production), no date. -327-  ' 11 4. Manufacturing Output by Zone - The distribution by department of manufacturing production in 1977 was derived from the partial data reported in INE's Estad!sticas Indus- triales ABo 1975, augmented by the establishment data reported in the industrial directory published by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, as described earlier. Most establishments listed in the directory are located in the principal city of the department. For the industries that are particularly consumer-oriented such as food products and textiles, apparel and leather products, it ''1 was assumed that the directory fails to include many establish- ments located outside the central city that would be termed "cottage" industries or artesans. It was assumed that directory- listed establishments accounted for two-thirds of the industry output of this nature in the department, but that those located in the central city were twice as important as those outside. The balance of one-third attributed to unlisted "cottage" establishments was then distributed by zone on the basis of the economically active population engaged in manufacturing as determined from the INE 1976 Census tapes. For the industries oriented largely to intermediate demand (paper products through the various metal manufacturers), it was further assumed that establishments located in the central city were twice as important as those ou~side, except where it was evident that the most important establishment was outside the central city, e.g. the cement plant at Viacha. Thus, in most instances, all but relatively small volumes of output were attributed to the zone in which the central city of the department is located. The bases for projecting manufacturing activities by zone ,"" are extremely limited. There is little information on the coverage represented by the Department details of manufacturing output reported in INE's 1970 Estad!sticas Industriales. , .~ Changes in industry definition have occurred and the use of measures of volume other than weight complicates the identi- fication of trends in physical output. The general approach , f;' adopted was to derive the shifts that occurred in the departments' shares of output by industry as indicated by the INE Estad!sticas Industriales for 1970 and 1975, and to extrapolate these shifts to 1989, using considerable judgement wherever radical shifts occurred, since there is a major question as to comparability. In the process, account was taken of plans by the regional development corporations for projects to expand manufacturing activity in the departments for which they are responsible. If the base for extrapolating share shifts to 1989 was reasonable, a further extrapolation to 1999 was made. Otherwise, the distribution by department developed for 1989 was used also for 1999. Zone shares of projected output by industry in each department were then derived for both target years on the basis of their share in 1977. -328-  Goods Consumption - The allocation to zones was made separately for intermediate and final consumption. Inter- mediate consumption was placed in the zones where the relevant industries are known or predicted to be located, in proportion to their capacity. The allocation of final consumption was made on the basis of population and income. Judgement was applied in regard to the relative needs of the dispersed and non-dispersed population. -329-  APPENDIX 7D SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS BY ZONE  Appendix 7D SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS BY ZONE TABULATIONS Number 1. Zonal Population - Trend Forecast:s 331 2. Average Zonal Income - Trend Forecasts 335 3. Productions and Consumptions by Commodity 337 Class -330-  f'L.:,IVli, :iAT!t.I'JAL TP', i)!">~jR'f 5'rUDi - l'ki::iW fOHECM';'l'S 'ruT AL Z'Ji l'.L por ULAT I dt4 ZONI::. 1977 1'189 1999 ZONE 1 q77 lQ{j9 1999 1 I"HO 27520 36440 1(1 62130 7bB!) A'i1)60 2 l li 9{)() 27)90 ),,611) 41 36020 72891) 502QO 3 2lflH 25 i1 10 2iH20 42 45031 b31bO 61600 4 tLb5)O t27'-J70 135J70 43 HR90 66220 50850 5 29iJ30 36590 4288; 44 24830 28180 30770 6 21260 26250 3075\) 45 32290 35500 31770 7 2'591J 291)00 31300 46 ~52S0 9377u 123570 8 ~21.11u lu7980 121)550 47 246220 394Q71') !l7SS;40 9 -Pd30 54900 00)530 48 2524t') 43790 28240 tv 77tl90 1173520 10362'50 49 59)40 63310 656ijO 11 61520 94150 13 3470 50 50400 51050 62160 12 42580 5J:lSo 13160 51 42350 47030 59640 13 5R790 66040 78930 S2 66200 7750' 9,,750 14 ::;921.J o7B9() d23tO 53 111720 131480 112610 IS 12770 80160 66570 54 31450 38510 44810 16 1147 to 123950 163190 55 30530 33950 36450 17 ti9820 74590 106500 56 51580 60100 67080 18 38960 475S0 60050 51 61650 74210 78990 19 176070 242150 311780 58 23100 26750 29710 20 3f>94u 47910 1039& 59 42010 59040 10970 21 16230 20460 24390 60 24420 26670 28210 22 44540 543U) 62960 61 1750 9350 \0750 I 23 17()BQ 14020, 15610 62 32640 37180 4\.1730 w 24 59380 u4200 07330 63 13660 96450 lld6bO w 25 9001,J I-' 12040 77320 64 Ib140 20730 2435v I 2b 10224;.> 12t!:l60 150640 05 48130 71170 90910 27 hOl7:J 106480 133260 66 381)90 63850 llo520 28 :ttlQu 2453v 27330 61 7361t) 123900 Hldtoo 29 4119v 44560 45840 68 121951) 243130 424b30 30 13f>150 173 9 50 2,,9690 69 3t>550 51520 5056() 31 59li60 66500 '71350 70 33740 45990 5d52{' 32 5~330 ti5320 I} 955'() 71 39570 48170 5':>171) 33 5Jl>4J 5574(1 j6560 12 353170 76291() 144&31\) H 01::180 72t20 8t61(; 13 33B40 36410 31'1040 35 ,,19vu 21iJ60 30561} 14 59110 19760 Q97BI) 3u t17f,0 8852(: 1~5.f9;J 75 10 9 20 15010 1:i230 37 H\,7 J oltlh, '1:')540 76 17630 4709\) 31890 38 Jt) 331..' 35770 ~521'J 71 0 9 ,3(. 23980 21190 39 G:-slQ,' 101,114'(" \37150 Tu V\L 5155b;») l1b4A(Jv 9;,7t>P00  hOLI V I A :JAf IU"lAL lPA;\lSPUrn STU~Y - Tr.I:.~.D FORECJI,STS ~~RAL ZU~AL PUPULATIUN ZONi::. t '.177 1':f89 19~9 ZlJilF.: 1977 1989 199q 1 14070 20340 26240 40 51700 60380 6688(1 2 1 b5 'hi 24020 31351) 41 33050 40250 4049\1 3 19260 20b50 21930 42 35870 42291} 41430 4 IJ1500 laSB3C 107140 43 27980 344dO 40360 :> 23720 28010 30790 44 24040 26540 2~790 b 1555v 18..!10 2011C 45 27980 30190 31730 7 21740 23170 24760 46 49750 5810(1 6b970 8 83890 94160 105120 47 13520 16980 22450 9 11951,) 46900 S1b90 48 '5890 15900 '0390 10 )9830 49:l90 67890 49 34950 34310 H900 11 5(1680 73720 98100 50 30820 32520 3~450 12 24400 30840 35700 51 33490 37670 40330 13 53000 b0580 1)8590 52 551)10 64930 72220 14 46760 53500 59180 53 44770 50910 54950 15 61040 65410 67590 54 2blbO 30350 3J700 16 92970 106430 118960 55 27040 28920 30350 17 41780 49b 9 0 54850 56 43340 48940 52710 18 20360 24140 2S93Q 57 62370 65510 67880 19 27920 33 9 90 39910 58 21310 23650 25720 20 5440 7420 9860 59 3260U 42730 51170 21 14750 18050 20710 60 22120 22900 23920 22 3'3590 39b50 ,;4700 61 6900 7900 8b9v 23 7660 8550 9210 62 295bO 32900 35030 I w 24 37950 40430 4tJ50 63 29440 36070 40070 w 25 6b930 11130 72550 64 14970 17640 20t90 IV I 26 35810 41-+40 45040 65 2\)530 29540 35280 27 91720 105360 115000 66 23010 35910 50480 28 1i5000 16900 17t130 07 37290 57150 7'1000 29 21530 21080 :lO220 68 54950 100660 lr;4570 30 <1020') 54450 57S8(J 69 23320 27580 l'H4o 31 51080 54130 56u40 70 22710 29030 34081) 32 5449.} 57020 5990,), 71 24610 2H40 2'J730 3l 4C920 ,10090 39590 72 51890 92440 131420 )4 2792;,) 30510 31260 11 23490 237Si} 23270 35 \.j<J~O 931u r.J590 74 27200 342BO 3977') 36 131:!70 25b7i..1 HOOO 75 4QI0 6190 1190 37 :.23u()\) J t 270 )'138i) 76 6RJO 86u'" Y970 )Ij 1 B6J 113430 22180 77 346\1 4320 ~n() 39 i '1 i. ) ~J J1ot:>{. 1:1130 Ti)'fAL 25561(;0 ]CI]7990 318:;730 ,. 'Ii i' .. ~ ... . ~ ~ ~ . . ~. ., if: .'tii '* *Il¥_ ,j '.til  l)ojl.JIVHJArlu~~AL ft<hNSPUHT STlJUY - Ttit::t,l) fURECAstS 1j,~rlf\N Z.;Nil, L PdP!JLl.T ION ZONE 1911 1':.189 1999 ZONE 1971 1989 1999 1 5170 '1180 1.)200 40 10430 15950 22181) 2 2320 H70 5320 41 2970 32640 'iROO 3 3550 5160 6190 42 9160 20870 20230 4 15030 :Z2140 28830 43 6910 11740 1649(, 5 5910 8580 120cJO 44 790 1640 19&0 6 5110 8ul0 10640 45 4300 5310 6040 7 4170 S830 6540 46 355uO 35610 Sb600 8 qn·) 13tl20 15430 47 232700 377990 ~5j090 9 SSS\) 8vOO 8840 48 9360 21890 11860 10 131460 1124230 1568360 49 24390 29000 32780 11 10840 21030 35310 50 19580 24530 29710 12 18180 22410 37160 51 8860 9360 19310 13 5790 5460 10340 52 10590 12570 24530 14 12450 14390 23130 53 7295\) 86670 1176bO 15 11730 15350 18980 54 5290 8160 t 1110 16 2174\) 17520 44230 55 3490 5030 blOO 17 28040 24IJOO 5165Q '56 8240 11160 14370 18 18600 221:110 34120 57 5280 8760 11010 19 148150 208160 271870 58 1790 3100 3990 20 31500 -10490 60530 59 941Q 1631 :) 25800 21 1480 2410 3680 60 2300 3710 4290 22 10950 14060 18260 61 850 1450 1060 23 4420 5470 6400 62 3090 4280 5700 I 24 21431) 23770 25980 63 44220 60380 7859(1 w w 25 5110 6190 8060 b4 1710 3090 4160 w 26 b6430 80120 105600 65 276CO I 42630 61630 27 &400 1120 17660 66 150B.,) 27940 4b040 28 olO\) 71>30 9700 61 36120 66810 109100 29 20060 4!34BO 25020 68 67000 142470 .;/10060 3i) 89950 119500 151810 09 13230 23940 25620 31 879u 12370 14110 70 11030 10960 24440 32 1840 R JO!) 9050 71 14960 20 H''') 20040 33 12720 15050 lti97\i 72 301881) 670471) t J1 0890 34 33100 -U11iJ 50350 73 1035" 126b:) 14770 3~ 13920 17b90 ':'0 91 0 14 3251(1 45480 E:lij 010 36 33890 u2\::l50 1\,·-'490 75 oOto 8920 12'-'"40 37 20470 30 5 40 tt 16(j 70 'J820 38490 21':120 311 1217v 17:l9o .d09!) 77 13470 19600 10170 39 Y:179'1 .) ':J 360 >jAb20 'l'-)T,'1L 2599'5 t }\i 412691() h<.l91 ')10  t: l~,lV1J1 £I\T!IJN4.L '!'Pl\',;:i!'dcn STUl)'! - n,r::l!) FUt\r;r:A::i1S r:CufH)"lIcfd,,:"Y ACTIn: POtIJ!dITILHJ ZONE; 1977 198~ 1999 ZO:~E 1 <i77 lqt;q 1<199 1 t>54'J qB41) 13450 4u 19730 25250 J ,177';; 2 59bJ BlJf:lu 12540 H 15930 205fj!} 2H18() J 72~o B~90 9170 42 134'>·.1 17(01) 21Q70 .. 2150 48190 5)520 43 11280 15451) t ~940 '. ';) () liHl40 797..1 11'l3.} 10,,41) 110bO 1252v H 45 947,) 11231) Ilt7\) 1285() li72,) 14270 7 W)4(r IJ"'10 11730 '16 2357t1 3026·) )'I (;20 8 21)7«)') 3246(1 .PSS;) .. 1 15390 1257411 t 911) 7;) 'J ll'il Hi l!:!IJSu i0790 48 794'} aCli:!() '1670 to 20093..1 11071·) 5)789,) 49 18750 20SH} 22560 11 261biJ lOl10 5672·) 50 115)0 1)590 15440 12 18290 24i:!30 31461,) 51 13520 17100 21)b70 13 U)190 21130 26370 52 20070 25910 3182<.1 14 Ib70~ 2,)991) 25180 53 35980 46620 57300 15 19911) 23u20 l5760 54 12950 15850 It!400 16 40030 50 9 &0 01940 55 11260 13030 14610 17 .22190 29360 36800 56 16720 20260 23600 18 10690 14200 178bO 57 19550 22330 2!:1530 19 53420 76~20 102530 58 7050 d490 99)0 20 <)620 14340 19840 59 13270 19350 20360 '21 6230 SiS" 10180 60 6910 7A50 il&60 22 lS!J40 20110 24380 61 2340 2940 3520 23 4370 5180 6140 62 9120 10790 12330 I 24 ;;u 190 22700 2·1890 03 23080 31410 40390 w 25 ~t>20\) ~9l80 .31890 64 5100 6580 eObO w ~ 26 Jtli2u 40190 4 Q S4Q 65 10020 24600 350",0 I 27 )7060 -15110 53840 00 13000 22160 3'>970 28 o.n~ 7!:.13l! ij760 67 23R4Q 41520 65780 2g l}"jOJ \3/20 14740 o~ 44v9", 909)3 1f.d9 DO )0 HJ510 5l'7 3,) ;) 7 at. I) 69 1 1 7;: t) 15641) 19720 31 1~d6J .21tiOJ 14-131) 70 9191..1 13nl'J 1129J 32 11'l6v 1 ~770 noot) 71 11520 14"80 11640 33 1 H7~} 1'5'1'50 10890 72 11793\) 265020 51'1,,4u H l71~v lt19(; 25)9v 7l 96blJ 11j~'''':) 11790 35 '7 ~~. 5 j 949,) 1<)34) 74 16490 229H) 2 ':19£)1) )(, l'H/ 5':; 2 '10HC' ttl45j 75 j090 li2~ :lila'] 37 l? " 18 I) 5 'I is 39 ~ 76 52~·j 76'1·, 1 J .1 2 (I 38 1;;7 " 10 i I) (I 1'336\.1 77 lItl;:) 51').) 7921} 3 (I " \ ,J L. "" j 1 ·71.... "')l5i; 'ft.!T!d. 1 \) 6::; 13 i J 24)14')\) 3.15-11 3 io:It i:i ~ ~ • • •• • 4 & , ~ ~ .- ~ Ai Ii" •  tlul,lVlA :-:,Il.1'I0NAL '!'H,r, lSr'Ok'f STlJiJY • Tf'£iln ff)RECI,STS ~VER'GE ~UR~L Zu~AL r~COM~ ZONE 1977 1989 1 :199 ZONE 19/7 1989 19'>19 1 6420 619(. quo 40 1980 2530 3650 2 i.>42tJ &190 9110 41 38O') 5010 7490 3 ItJ5v 2v90 293i> 42 4790 6360 1.;370 4 H3v 5i30 7QfJO 43 2150 2750 J97v 5 41)v 1):l30 70BIJ 44 5280 6630 9770 b 4130 5:l30 7080 45 528\l ti6)1j 977u 7 4290 5450 7810 46 5780 7320 10740 8 1460 5t>70 8140 47 716iJ 9960 i'l65v 9 4460 5b7r 8140 48 5120 0300 '~440 JO 1960 5010 7160 49 3900 5230 1750 11 3800 2v10 6blO 50 4950 6630 9630 12 lo30 4tiOO 1230 51 3900 5230 175fJ 13 4621.1 5\;90 8460 52 2480 3230 4750 14 1980 2530 3650 53 3630 4580 0900 15 1160 1390 1990 54 2310 2960 4360 16 1320 Ib10 2210 55 1820 2270 3260 17 3300 4360 6510 56 1650 2050 J930 18 3300 4360 6510 57 149i> 1830 :t600 19 3300 4140 6190 58 1490 1830 :l6uO 20 3630 4360 6510 59 1650 2090 :t990 21 990 1130 1630 60 1490 1830 2600 22 990 1130 It»30 61 2640 3490 5210 I 23 99(;, 1130 16ll) 62 1 98 0 2530 3580 IN 35(1) IN 24 2810 5210 63 4290 5760 866\1 \J1 25 1320 tbio 2280 64 3300 4300 b510 I 26 1320 10tO 2280 65 26411 349v 50d,j 27 1320 101!) 2280 66 2310 3010 4360 28 99,) 1130 1&3\l 67 7920 9120 14000 29 ,}qo 11)0 1030 68 6930 8410 IB40 lV 297iJ 39211 5790 69 5120 6840 9900 31 11 (),j 1<\00 1~50 70 5120 6840 9901'1 32 1160 1400 1950 11 5100 6840 Iv350 33 11 r;(I 14(,1,) 1950 72 8250 1(}200 14650 H 116,,) i 4(1(, 1950 73 4950 6627 ~9bV 35 llt>v I i 0 () 1950 74 4950 6630 'J770 36 td2u 619(; '4110 75 'if, 2 \) tJ190 ~3t,J 37 52lii) 6b7( l li 160 76 4290 571() f!530 HI ;21;1) 6070 luL60 77 129u 511:) i.:l53U )0 ')!1.} 7lb,} 1178 u  u;)LLVlt, I,ATlfJI'4AL 1f,;,uJP'JI:T STUUY - 'fhr:.:NI" F'Df'ECAS't.::l AVEi{/\(,l:, Uhn,;iJ lJ:lAL 11~CJl\1L ZONE 1 ':177 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1 1386\..1 15L70 17580 40 15020 16440 11:1050 2 1I55U 1'2 b 50 14050 41 1946!l 215!:1'} 24910 3 l:lO90 aliSo 10260 42 23100 25291.1 29300 4 11550 121:150 14050 H 1386;) 15170 11580 5 1,31;160 15110 17580 44 11341l 18Q70 21980 6 11550 12050 14650 45 19640 21500 21910 7 l1S5v 12050 14650 46 2079;) 22160 20370 8 11710 13'110 16120 47 26510 29060 33110 9 2'J7QO 22160 251RI) 18 2310Q 2529Q 2~710 Iv 2172v 29840 33400 49 1964ry 21500 24910 11 18480 18910 21980 50 23100 25290 29300 12 11=1480 18910 21980 51 20190 22760 26370 13 U86\) 15110 17580 52 17330 18970 21980 14 231 Ov 25290 29300 53 25410 21820 31640 15 10400 11380 13190 54 18480 2023u 2J440 16 10400 11380 13190 55 15020 16440 1~050 17 15020 15170 17590 56 13860 15110 11580 18 13801.1 13910 16120 57 12710 13910 Ib120 19 22720 27920 31640 59 12710 13910 Ib120 20 23100 2276() 26370 S9 19640 21500 24900 21 9240 10120 11720 60 12110 13910 Ib120 22 9241,) 10121) 11720 61 18480 20230 23440 23 9240 10120 11720 62 lu170 17700 205!f.i I 24 11)170 11100 21)510 63 25410 27820 32230 ~ 25 26 10400 13880 11380 15171.1 13190 17580 04 65 18480 11330 20230 19910 23440 21980 27 10400 1138';' 13190 66 16170 17100 20510 28 9240 10120 11720 67 20790 22160 20370 29 9;140 10120 11120 6e 23100 25290 29300 30 24200 26550 J0170 tl9 19640 21500 24910 31 9240 10120 1l72\l 70 20790 22760 20370 32 Q240 10120 11121) 71 18481) 2023(' 23440 33 1313b0 1517t) 175BO 72 2ilSO\J 290B\) 3';700 3-} 13%0 IS1 7 0 17580 73 t84 d o 2023') 23440 35 16t7J 11100 2 ') 510 74 2C790 22160 20370 3& 15021) 10440 I-J050 7'5 Id4tS) 2023~ 23440 37 l A4i1", 2udo 1. 314() 70 18480 20:;> 3 /) 23440 3H j.tl'.80 ,,1).l3 :1 23440 77 184 Ho 2023,) 234·1:) 39 'i ~ 1 ",; 2529,') 29)(;3 '" ;OJ .. ;i. .. ~ • 6 .. ":ii 4i it; .. i' .. .. ~ • • • it ~  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDy • PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 1 - LIVE ANIMALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE 1 .-~-.--.-.-------- 1977 33 1989 91 1999 115 -------.---------- 1977 1999 53 1999 72 ZONE -_.--------.---.- 1977 1989 . 19'19 ]99 -----------.------ 1977 198<i 1999 201 23Q 3J 40 235 290 145 2 74 11)3 262 74 121 166 41 159 389 4b9 134 192 237 3 405 476 678 300 393 804 42 205 244 HCI 105 16t> 182 4 283 332 476 100 124 128 43 213 353 3b1 82 17b 221 5 56 66 94 27 37 43 44 77 Cl2 131 58 75 B3 6 11 36 '12 19 2& 31 45 77 92 131 74 91 100 7 73 fl6 123 63 90 87 46 53 63 90 198 246 289 S 150 176 25t 83 110 122 47 42 50 71 1300 2354 3254 9 276 322 4159 43 55 62 48 77 192 131 59 115 323 10 68 80 114 1784 2660 4303 49 279 432 473 138 16b 176 11 23 27 3ft 40 70 100 50 357 525 607 350 447 497 12 25 29 42 30 43 55 51 102 221 172 98 123 147 13 423 495 683 60 76 87 52 267 318 454 155 204 239 14 265 240 342 40 52 61 53 133 189 270 300 395 48B 15 182 213 304 50 62 68 54 4q 70 100 109 150 167 16 327 383 545 100 122 149 55 125 178 254 106 133 142 17 140 164 234 50 60 78 56 199 293 404 179 23b 255 18 82 96 137 40 55 68 57 269 392 544 235 291 310 19 59 100 143 300 467 611 58 141 201 286 80 105 113 20 18 30 43 125 193 239 59 138 897 1279 146 231 407 I w 21 78 132 lR7 15 21 26 60 187 262 275 85 105 113 w 22 149 252 359 40 55 66 61 613 966 123S 63 9b 100 -..J I 23 81 136 193 11 15 16 62 94 124 221 29 37 41 24 159 269 384 53 64 69 63 63 183 148 250 369 903 25 69 126 179 60 72 77 64 86 214 203 15 21 46 26 17 31 44 86 115 139 65 526 967 5H1 76 12b 1030 27 56 102 145 84 100 116 66 85 112 199 84 159 245 29 252 295 420 18 24 26 67 235 569 837 400 761 1176 29 66 77 109 35 42 44 68 273 646 974 376 847 1436 30 77 140 199 240 347 426 69 454 100B 1619 350 557 624 31 18 33 4R 51 64 68 70 610 1015 1929 400 615 934 12 4(1 73 164 60 75 79 71 436 739 1(}40 50 69 81 33 70 129 1134 45 53 54 72 92 184 328 1850 4004 8211 34 66 120 171 51 68 75 13 136 2')4 364 BO 97 J 04 35 HI 33 48 19 25 29 74 178 817 1279 200 301 693 36 220 264 377 461 964 1616 75 485 827 1296 85 132 173 37 1404 2185 3523 1300 2058 31)78 76 385 57B 1031 150 453 655 38 490 986 1147 480 735 q49 77 18~ 278 4':16 50 114 261 39 13b9 2142 1440 46° 1690 3490 TOTAL 16311 26284 4283'; 15533 26370 42971  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPO~T STUDY ~ PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 2 - MEAT AND fISH PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION' -.-----~------.--- ------_.---------- -_._----.---_.-.-. -------------.---- ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 19'i19 1917 1981.:1 1999 1 31 73 119 83 132 195 40 135 176 213 85 US 144 2 69 130 1157 54 87 124 41 7IJ 117 142 36 81 104 3 230 2BO 339 25 11 6E! 42 98 65 79 67 104- 119 4: 9) 113 137 119 145 156 43 76 114 13B 52 110 1.44 5 25 30 36 3B 52 61 44 54 111 9j:j 19 24 2a 6 18 22 26 33 46 54 45 69 101'\ 126 39 48 54 7 59 73 69 59 73 84 46 185 477 33S 202 240 302 8 77 94 90 84 109 126 47 1213 1920 2687 1118 t991 2866 9 40 50 61 U 61 72 48 55 83 101 55 105 30CJ 10 1664 2024 3160 2971 5018 1338 49 129 194 '35 140 165 183 11 37 45 55 75 129 192 50 327 490 594 114 143 166 12 28 36 45 88 122 166 51 91 1)6 165 64 79 99 13 56 68 82 52 64 7A 52 145 217 263 89 115 140 14 37 45 55 78 99 121 53 280 420 656 598 775 997 15 47 57 69 82 101 115 54 102 132 16Q 6R 92 106 16 93 112 136 141 169 214 55 99 129 156 56 61J 77 17 47 57 69 139 164 222 56 167 217 263 109 141 159 18 37 45 55 89 119 152 57 219 290 351 108 132 146 19 28(1 500 7e1 606 928 1265 58 75 183 22? 3f' 41 52 20 117 190 210 49 71 97 S9 136 577 830 107 167 231 I 21 14 23 28 16 22 28 60 79 103 125 41 50 55 w 22 37 65 79 97 131 16t 61 59 77 93 14 19 22 w co 23 10 15 ,9 25 32 3R 62 27 39 47 35 44 52 I 24 19 74 90 225 270 301 63 233 3336 3453 231 335 475 25 56 85 103 48 59 64 64 14 20 24 18 24 57 26 SO 11)4 126 238 314 396 65 471 692 3017 145 231:1 450 27 78 101 122 71 84 101 66 7ft H2 136 88 164 263 28 17 57 69 27 34 41 67 373 646 782 281 530 852 29 33 50 61 79 92 101 68 351 602 728 507 H2o 1983 30 224 336 525 321 455 582 69 327 6B8 1019 114 119 207 31 48 72 67 54 67 74 70 373 660 1106 97 147 232 32 56 84 102 43 52 59 71 47 94 114 126 110 21(1 33 42 63 66 62 7t 77 12 1726 2421 3625 2091. 5006 9503 34 48 72 87 124 163 186 13 75 150 182 93 111 124 35 18 27 32 49 64 77 74 181 474 843 247 360 B77 3fJ 380 495 599 203 417 728 75 79 358 915 45 69 93 37 1010 1578 3714 136 212 329 76 140 3tO 644 81 240 362 38 t6 :3 616 1295 8) 125 169 71 47 94 ?!:!5 6t 131 326 39 474 15R8 2698 248 407 ';90 TOTA.L 14341 26537 40695 14540 24494 37561 ... .. '" j .. ... ,. .. Ii< ,. ,« .,' . ,. JI<  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS By ZON~ (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 3 - OTHER ANIMAL PROOUCTS ZONE . _.---_ ... tn1 1989 _------- ---...-..-.-_...-- PRODUCTION 1999 1917 CONSUMPTION 1989 1999 ZONE ---.- .. _-----.-.- . 1977 PPQOUCTION 1989 1999 1917 CONSUMPTION ------- •.. -.------ 1989 1999 1 5 6 B 8 10 15 40 82 115 152 26 30 36 2 13 15 19 I} 11 16 41 50 70 92 1'5 29 36 3 111 191 259 10 10 22 42 64 89 117 lq 26 28 4 71 99 110 49 50 51 43 57 80 106 15 27 34 5 17 24 31 12 14 16 44 31 43 56 10 10 12 6 11 15 19 9 10 13 45 37 52 tl9 13 13 15 1 32 45 59 11 11 13 46 79 110 145 400 419 492 B 49 69 91 38 42 48 47 478 669 882 1000 1527 2109 9 50 70 92 20 22 24 48 31 43 56 11 It! 50 10 657 920 1559 1200 1138 2439 49 85 119 156 25 26 27 11 17 24 31 25 37 52 50 173 242 318 21 23 25 12 14 20 26 18 n 28 51 48 57 75 17 1~ 21 13 75 105 13B 24 26 30 52 90 126 165 2B 31 37 14 47 66 86 25 28 32 53 126 176 317 lOt) 10 137 15 41 51 75 30 31 35 54 46 64 85 13 15 16 16 77 108 142 48 49 60 55 S5 77 10 ! 13 13 15 17 35 49 64 2q 30 38 56 90 126 165 21 23 25 IS 24 34 45 16 19 22 57 118 165 217 28 30 31 19 116 162 292 400 524 687 58 47 1i6 86 10 11 12 20 49 67 87 15 18 24 59 70 298 444 17 23 30 21 15 21 28 7 9 11 60 54 75 99 10 10 12 I 22 33 46 60 19 21 24 61 99 239 184 3 4 4 w w 23 14 20 26 5 6 6 62 23 32 42 14 15 16 \0 I 24 39 55 79 25 26 27 63 99 138 249 250 311 621 25 31 43 56 30 30 33 64 16 22 H 7 9 Ifl 26 33 46 60 42 48 57 65 250 350 824 20 29 51 27 37 52 69 42 43 49 66 41 57 75 16 26 40 28 3ft ')3 70 9 10 12 67 174 244 807 31 49 77 29 21 29 38 17 11 17 68 171 239 315 400 759 1287 30 97 136 245 250 304 313 69 195 259 34! 15 20 22 31 21 29 38 25 27 28 70 221 309 406 14 18 27 32 27 38 50 25 21 28 11 72 101 132 16 18 22 33 25 35 46 22 22 22 72 684. 1058 1616 1400 2873 5235 34 27 38 50 25 29 31 73 46 64 A5 14 14 16 35 9 13 17 9 10 12 74 133 1136 245 25 31 73 36 27 168 222 20 35 59 75 92 129 169 5 7 9 37 114 343 767 IF! 24 36 76 103 144 189 7 18 26 38 61 161 421 11 14 18 77 41. 57 75 5 to 22 3') 169 H7 757 28 39 55 TOT 1'.L 6799 10405 lb040 {)676 10087 15329  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY· PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS By ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODrn • 4 • MAIZE PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSlIMPTION ZONE -------------.---- 1977 1989 1999 ------------------ 1977 t989 1999 ZONE -------------.-.-- 1977 198 t999 Q ------------------ 1977 1989 1999 1 60 79 lOB 105 133 Ibl 40 558 674 tlb2 521 568 604 2 107 142 192 127 163 199 41 32'i 493 502 303 544 602 3 126 252 335 152 153 286 42 210 554 324 281 350 341 4 2421) 3025 3914 575 560 514 43 115 139 177 194 327 36f1 5 320 400 518 276 303 308 44 19 22 28 106 lOb 106 6 115 144 186 140 154 158 45 97 117 15n 174 110 165 7 100 110 141 151 150 147 46 1870 2288 2928 867 847 R89 9 0 0 0 270 280 279 47 0 0 0 3925 5588 6903 9 0 0 0 140 143 143 48 550 665 850 373 574 1437 10 0 0 0 2256 3047 )823 49 1971 2381 3046 1217 1154! 1089 11 900 1260 1628 690 943 1210 50 1110 1341 1715 752 755 750 12 0 0 0 125 138 162 51 332 401 513 131 327 350 13 0 0 0 172 171 177 52 1545 1866 H8R 1031 1071 1117 14 0 0 0 113 176 185 53 780 91)0 lt52 949 880 971 15 0 0 0 213 209 205 54 618 711 909 432 469 464 16 31 39 49 463 444 484 55 920 1062 1358 579 572 543 17 749 936 1212 647 613 708 56 1418 1637 2094 729 753 733 18 249 346 448 276 299 321 57 26 30 18 277 210 256 19 0 0 0 787 963 1127 58 1380 1593 1985 180 801 171 20 0 0 0 108 124 146 59 llll) 1965 2448 819 1010 1211 21 0 0 0 47 52 57 60 500 575 716 345 335 323 I 22 0 0 0 130 141 149 61 800 924 1152 430 461 482 ..,. w 23 0 0 0 35 36 36 62 914 1228 1594 584 500 589 0 I 24 0 0 0 191 184 175 63 1690 2271 2952 1132 t315 1599 25 149 186 238 355 338 321 64 '180 1586 2Q54 655 720 140) 26 0 0 0 299 316 341 65 832 11 1" 1448 604 793 128B 27 254 244 312 517 4B8 504 66 360 492 629 329 490 674 28 ('l 0 0 62 64 65 67 1397 1962 1866 966 1473 2038 29 0 0 0 124 116 109 68 2875 3415 31315 2793 4941 1493 30 58 83 107 560 635 697 69 t34 159 2(:3 210 263 263 31 lel 262 336 325 320 30S 70 109 130 106 286 225 306 32 592 934 1066 522 510 488 71 1680 1999 2531 994 t 074 1133 3J 647 834 1066 IB3 492 454 12 2760 32R4 3687 1960 3752 bll0 34 242 348 446 359 376 Jo9 13 1625 1934 2474 944 90:.! 858 )5 0 0 89 93 96 14 U9 689 16 30 64 95" 201 331 495 75 lOCI 24 29 153 37 2B3 55 335 67 7A 37 232 377 741 288 359 479 76 44 52 bE) 91 21b 279 3B 26(' 423 B31 233 280 324 71 24 29 37 Sf! 104 213 39 302 493 °65 417 548 681 TOTAL 40317 51012 6410' 40312 50045 62382 .. .. :., "'- jj '" . -"  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 5 - nICE PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE ------------------ 1977 1999 1999 --._---.---------- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE --------.--------. 1977 1989 1999 -----------.------ 1977 1989 1999 1 25 !'i1 72 37 103 16t 40 0 0 0 115 273 379 2 46 93 130 34 95 151 41 759 1540 bOBI 65 256 367 3 91 185 314 46 101 246 42 760 0 9343 91 24~ ::114 4 0 0 76 208 441 529 43 0 1543 0 66 242 356 5 0 0 I) 53 126 168 44 0 0 0 48 105 135 6 0 0 0 41 99 131 45 0 0 0 5Q 126 15S 7 0 0 0 48 105 133 46 0 0 (') 191 407 555 8 (> 0 0 167 317 491 47 0 0 0 487 1512 2431 9 0 0 0 86 192 250 48 0 0 0 49 165 535 10 0 0 0 1593 4692 7664 49 0 0 0 117 242 29t:1 11 647 0 3007 120 358 597 50 0 0 0 96 211 271 12 89 1313 412 78 190 297 51 0 I) 0 79 170 236 13 0 0 0 105 228 l08 52 0 0 0 12] 279 379 14 0 0 0 107 239 326 53 0 0 0 222 501 721 15 {I 0 0 130 279 356 54 0 (') 0 57 136 174 16 (\ 0 0 210 439 622 S5 0 0 0 5S 118 147 17 0 181 0 124 256 386 56 0 0 0 92 207 262 18 0 0 0 70 165 236 57 0 0 0 120 256 314 19 0 0 0 318 848 1292 58 0 0 0 41 91 115 20 0 0 0 66 166 252 59 0 0 0 76 207 319 I w 21 0 0 0 29 72 101. 60 0 0 0 43 91 115 "" t-' 22 0 0 0 79 196 257 61 0 0 0 14 33 44 I '3 0 0 0 21 46 62 62 0 0 0 59 130 170 24 0 0 0 105 221 273 63 0 0 0 14R 376 595 25 0 0 0 129 267 331 64 0 0 0 3(1 72 1 81 20 0 0 0 182 418 590 65 0 0 0 81 250 526 27 0 0 0 181 312 500 66 0 0 0 09 225 402 28 0 0 0 38 85 112 61 3976 B071 133015 32R 1069 1924 29 0 0 0 79 161 197 68 2956 6000 9919 20t 101)1 1988 30 0 0 0 250 884 69 31 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 107 107 ot7 230 228 295 295 70 71 " l) 0 0 0 0 0 () 0 66 60 72 190 15 9 11 0 234 2BO 232 33 0 0 0 95 192 23/) 12 0 0 0 697 2902 6169 34 0 0 0 lOP. 248 314 73 0 0 0 60 126 154 3S 0 0 0 41 93 126 74 I) 5900 24()4 107 277 139 36 168 341 512 90 323 629 75 0 I) 0 19 50 16 37 154 313 524 102 277 482 76 0 0 0 32 165 27R 3B 1\8 30(1 503 58 15.3 230 77 0 0 0 21 81 218 3Q 226 ~ C; 9 7('9 110 ·193 7Bl TOTAL 1004'5 26290 47551 10034 27291) 44051  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZON~ (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 6 • WHEAT PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ...... -- ... ---- .. - ------------._--.- ._.---------_.-.-. -----------.-.---- ZONE 1911 1989 1999 1971 t999 1999 ZONE 1971 ,989 1999 t971 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 31 41 51 40 9 18 20 14 tb 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 53 101 115 19 36 41 3 0 0 0 3 3 6 42 18 36 3S 13 11 11 4 36 I) 57 44to 186 191 119 43 36 73 78 15 ,6 30 5 0 0 3 4 3 44 11 22 24 7 7 B 6 0 0 0 2 2 3 45 44 89 96 17 18 17 7 0 0 0 3 3 3 46 27 55 S9 23 ;Z3 25 B 2 3 3 20 22 23 47 0 0 0 3638 5466 6874 9 0 0 0 !5 6 5 48 59 120 129 19 31 79 10 0 0 0 4494 6405 8183 49 250 508 54B 70 70 67 11 0 0 0 7 10 13 50 46 93 100 21 22 23 12 0 0 0 5 6 7 51 46 93 100 19 20 22 13 0 0 0 6 7 7 52 94 191 206 J4 37 40 14 0 0 0 7 1 8 53 169 276 299 858 938 1055 15 0 0 0 8 8 9 54 233 381 413 47 54 54 16 0 0 0 13 13 15 55 369 604 655 64 67 64 17 0 0 0 8 8 10 56 180 294 0 50 54 54 18 0 0 0 4 5 5 57 13 '21 23 36 37 3b 19 0 0 0 4193 5415 6450 58 431 706 765 69 75 73 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 21 27 33 I w 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 130 213 230 30 31 30 ~ 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 4 5 5 IV 23 0 0 436 60 I 0 0 0 0 62 292 399 56 61 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 332 454 495 490 601 744 25 465 600 588 103 104 100 64 168 229 250 31 36 71 26 0 0 0 26 29 32 65 0 0 0 26 36 60 27 114 147 144 46 46 48 66 66 90 98 29 46 63 28 0 0 0 5 6 5 67 2'3 29 0 0 0 11 11 10 68 " 0 0 0 0 (.I 15 24 4t:j 33 b9 30 33 43 0 543 650 726 69 88 269 )52 29 39 39 31 193 236 0 49 51 50 70 9S 300 393 2q 37 51 32 137 177 42 40 41 40 71 50 153 200 19 22 2023 33 3J 43 42 20 20 19 72 100 306 400 2121 42A4 7106 34 44 57 55 23 25 25 73 184 563 629 49 50 48 35 0 0 0 6 7 7 74 93 975 Ib'5b2 33 41 7084 36 0 0 0 63 110 161 75 19 sq 76 1 9 10 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 34 l(H 13'5 11. 21 36 38 0 () 0 0 0 0 77 19 58 76 7 13 28 39 () 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 4BUR 9121 292H4 11997 25701 42398 .,; • ~ ... . ~ ~ ;a <,j ...  BOLIVIA NATIUNAL TRANSPORT STUDY. PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (lU TONS) COMMODITY • 7 - OTHER CEr.EALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION .. -_.- PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE -----_._---------- 1971 1989 1999 -------.---- \977 \989 1999 ZONE ----_._._------.-. 1977 1989 1999 --------_.-_._---- 1977 198 9 1999 1 0 0 0 2 3 3 4Q 55 136 136 9 11 11 2 0 0 (\ 2 3 3 41 71 175 176 9 1R 19 3 0 0 0 2 2 4 42 31 76 76 6 Po R 4 1121 3248 55&9 72 77 70 43 39 96 96 6 11 12 5 0 0 4015 2 2 3 44 65 160 161 B 9 9 6 0 0 1393 2 2 3 45 153 319 380 17 19 17 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 46 1 2 2 5 5 S 8 187 542 695 18 21 20 47 () 0 0 1463 2297 2782 9 7S 217 2711 B 9 9 48 14 35 35 3 5 12 10 146 423 543 1846 5149 5782 49 7 17 18 4 4 3 11 0 0 0 5 8 10 50 0 0 0 3 3 3 12 0 0 0 3 4 4 51 18 192 193 10 11 11 II :nS 797 1022 20 22 22 52 0 0 0 4 5 4 14 361) 1058 1356 25 28 29 53 10 17 11 322 285 7 2908 15 a 23 30 6 7 6 54 26 45 30 4 5 4 16 32 93 119 11 12 12 1)5 32 55 37 4 4 4 17 3 9 11 5 S 6 56 3 5 0 4 5 4 18 0 0 0 3 4 3 57 9 15 10 5 5 5 19 317 759 lOll 1651 2236 2565 58 84 144 96 7 8 A 20 51 136 1R3 15 19 22 59 0 0 0 3 4 4 I w 21 1 2 3 6 9 8 60 276 467 313 itl 21 19 22 162 381 518 32 38 39 61 l) 0 0 1 1 1 "" w I 23 194 464 620 10 12 11 62 104 219 314 A 9 9 24 243 581 171 45 48 45 63 195 410 589 181 232 276 25 236 682 924 17 18 17 64 60 126 181 4 5 10 26 19 228 310 14 11 17 65 0 0 0 4 6 10 27 392 1132 1550 26 21 27 66 24 51 12 4 1 9 28 127 367 497 7 8 B 67 0 0 0 4 1 9 29 79 228 310 8 8 e 68 0 0 0 1 14 20 30 348 1005 4q7 230 288 309 69 78 350 596 11 16 15 31 361 lQ43 310 20 22 20 70 89 400 6HO 12 16 21 32 392 1132 1362 21 23 21 11 56 252 428 9 1l 11 3J 141 401 5'52 11 11 10 12 0 0 0 840 1772 2831 34 136 393 532 12 14 13 73 12 324 550 to 11 10 35 0 0 0 3 4 3 74 68 5206 4458 11 15 29 36 0 0 0 5 9 13 75 17 71 130 3 4: 4 37 0 0 0 4 6 1 76 29 131 22'2 4 11 13 18 0 0 0 3 4 4 71 17 77 130 3 6 12 39 0 0 0 6 9 10 TOTAL. 724(1 24995 3!)170 7217 1564 7 18310  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STI'DY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS AY ZONE (10 to~S) COMMOD ITY - A • POTATOES AND OTHER TUBERS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION COrvSUMPTION ZONE ------._---_ 1977 1989 .. -.. - 1999 ----._---._.---_.- 1917 1989 1999 ZONE -- .. 1977 -..... 1989 _----.-. 1999 -----_ 1977 .. -.-.-.--_. 1989 199<) 1 523 976 15(\6 728 1069 1412 40 3995 4735 5549 2330 29)9 3421 2 no 1718 2647 717 1067 1425 41 2173 3242 3450 653 135b 1643 3 3)6 572 712 356 414 949 42 l497 2210 2798 95~ 1380 1474 4 4622 5823 957 2326 2622 2636 43 3454 4398 4947 1780 3468 427 0 5 3300 4274 2132 129(1 J635 1823 44 96 117 139 386 45() 490 6 1137 1476 2226 928 1176 1331 45 96 1\7 139 507 573 607 7 903 1172 1447 711 817 880 46 450 546 639 1332 15(14 1730 8 916 1190 1447 1451 1730 1~01 47 96 117 139 3851 6342 8579 9 929 1203 1447 745 878 966 48 1723 2095 2413 1380 2457 6733 10 15 19 24 12072 19855 25916 49 2043 2483 2895. 1228 1345 1392 11 1293 1674 2051 962 1521 2138 50 282 464 549 787 915 995 12 S27 164 205 667 956 1094 51 4020 4886 5791 2415 2753 3238 13 1205 1560 1910 <)20 1060 1201 52 1972 2397 2774 1129 1351 1551 14 1205 1560 1930 920 1083 1247 53 277 362 434 1841 2201 2668 15 540 700 844 1138 1296 1387 54 592 773 94n 494 621 673 16 2594 3359 4162 1795 1991 2375 55 1630 2128 2606 1241 1417 1476 17 1777 2300 2895 1670 1831 2315 50 2288 2988 3620 1634 1954 2079 18 406 526 651 611 766 917 57 34 44 61 1058 1193 1239 19 756 978 1194 2754 3898 4995 S8 860 1123 1375 688 818 860 20 110 142 IBl 581 774 993 59 162 211 253 65A 941 1233 21 99 t 28 157 253 327 389 60 1133 1479 1810 681 764 806 I 22 402 520 639 697 87) 1009 61 0 0 0 121 150 172 w 23 220 285 350 188 249 62 3830 5873 13210 2575 224 3011 3291 "'" 24 1636 2118 2582 929 1030 1078 63 2510 3848 8455 1153 1550 2063 "'I" 25 104 176 217 1124 1238 1289 64 539 825 1819 260 331 106 26 104 176 217 1589 1939 2296 65 136 209 49] 752 1141 2031 27 9376 12154 14417 4457 4866 5502 66 :no 413 965 595 1023 1545 28 104 176 217 331 3<)5 439 67 4554 7760 14477 3458 5977 9050 29 520 874 10»6 660 715 734 66 3242 5524 9652 3246 6644 11 031 30 897 1507 1845 2129 2792 3359 69 856 2258 269J 857 1240 1358 31 1926 3237 3981 940 1072 1115 70 734 1250 2293 735 1029 1529 32 3811 6409 7841 2290 2588 2710 11 3133 5338 'l892 1455 1818 2101 33 525 892 10R6 fHO 896 907 72 2066 3521 6515 5533 12241 21858 34 382 641 784 955 1159 1242 73 6096 103A7 19302 182' 2011 2097 35 52 87 109 357 433 488 74 1223 4083 90l:i5 1225 1619 3777 36 24g 336 196 219 414 717 75 245 417 772 245 34b 441 37 594 602 945 595 857 1252 76 367 624 1206 367 1006 1426 )8 b65 999 1057 666 928 1173 77 245 416 772 245 505 1140 39 64' 1165 10']0 642 976 1328 TOTAL 104742 153629 2t4404 104906 147595 197918 ,. 1;1' !'r .", .. >Ii ite :if '" Jill . .. ~ ~ .. "i >I; ;i ... . . . ... ~ .j 4t ,;, ,,~ ~ :~  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY • 9 • FRUIT ..----..---- PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE --~--- 1977 1989 1999 -------.-------_.- 1977 CONSUMPTION 1989 1999 ZONE ..... 1977 _---_ ....-.-. PRODUCTION 1989 1999 --- ... ----- 1977 t98~ ... -.-- 1999 1 306 428 618 251 337 437 40 82 119 155 1372 15R4 1810 2 543 760 1133 229 322 409 41 23000 30550 38420 3151 59139 7124 3 851 1236 1647 372 395 797 42 4588 7235 7622 3594 4735 4970 4 437 633 639 11 83 1220 1205 43 200 290 381 832 H83 1797 5 1102 1597 258 726 843 922 44 0 0 0 299 318 341 6 1134 164.1 237 511 593 658 45 0 0 0 325 335 350 7 0 0 0 05 69 73 46 900 1159 1545 1575 1621 1838 8 0 0 0 224 245 264 47 0 0 0 3226 4861 6458 9 0 0 0 115 124 134 48 255 369 404 646 1053 2832 10 200 290 387 9375 13398 18084 49 316 545 721 1625 162 9 1656 11 9547 13843 18541 1794 2595 3582 50 501 734 979 1302 1)95 1479 12 2093 3035 4017 646 759 952 51 lS 51 72 956 998 1151 13 0 0 0 140 147 164 52 357 517 690 1540 1694 1901 14 0 0 () 144 155 175 53 0 0 0 163) 1791 2127 15 0 0 0 174 191 191 S4 0 0 0 321 369 393 16 0 0 0 298 302 354 55 0 0 0 309 323 330 17 193 280 371 695 697 866 56 0 0 0 504 551 576 18 158 229 309 396 454 534 57 1059 1260 2215 1072 410b 4228 19 36 55 72 1811 2345 2952 58 0 0 955 222 241 249 20 2 3 5 8a 107 135 59 408 485 3090 529 691 991 I 21 28 40 ~2 45 54 63 60 1493 1776 0 617 633 656 w 22 e 12 15 108 124 14) 61 .102 121 206 100 114 128 "'" U1 I 23 24 8 71 12 102 15 134 30 161 33 163 36 11:>8 62 63 489 507 781 4110 1288 7828 480 1387 514 6701 551 9928 25 0 0 0 173 175 179 64 34 54 93 117 20b 432 26 0 0 0 244 212 317 65 0 0 0 490 681 1189 27 2 3 2 243 242 270 66 821 430 711 663 1044 1546 28 0 0 0 50 54 60 61 1650 2464 3296 2139 3383 5031 29 0 0 0 110 109 110 69 6338 9444 12172 2914 5569 8082 30 35 40 62 1416 1699 2001 69 272 406 546 409 542 583 31 174 217 309 651 679 694 70 312 466 628 391 501 73 J 32 72 90 129 603 624 641 71 57 87 113 394 451 511 3) 315 )94 556 645 629 626 72 2000 2990 4017 4002 810b 12205 34 0 0 0 146 163 171 73 281 429 517 374 378 381 3S 0 0 0 221 245 272 74 287 IB2q 21)J9 623 182 1727 36 26 36 52 524 912 1469 75 sa 87 10 115 148 187 37 1421 2509 3842 988 1302 lR68 76 t04 155 206 190 47(1 664 38 158 7 2801 43']6 72q 929 1 t 53 77 513 fl7 113 124 234 519 39 1434 7532 3914 1505 1095 279R TOTAL 68319 10t841 133317 68511 10201 9 133387  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDI • P~ODUCTIUNS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 10 - OTHER VEGETABLES AND PLANTS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION Pt<OOliCTION CONSUMPtION ZONE .-.------------._- 1977 1989 1999 -----------_._---- 1977 19B9 1999 ZONE ---------------.-. 1977 1999 1999 ------------------ 1977 1989 1999 1 5 18 44 sa B8 114 40 301 436 5B6 187 243 278 2 10 30 87 54 82 109 41 707 1325 1676 228 4f!b 580 3 0 0 0 72 85 174 42 900 1382 181:12 267 395 415 4 492 228 0 448 519 514 43 300 660 627 141 283 343 5 200 89 0 79 103 113 44 0 0 C'I 85 101 J 09 6 100 44 0 62 81 90 45 0 0 0 91 106 110 7 l71 196 226 9& 113 120 46 916 1534 1913 507 589 666 8 95 109 123 265 326 351 47 500 7AO 1039 989 1808 2452 9 250 288 3,9 130 157 171 4ft 1183 1945 2396 239 431:1 1180 10 1037 1192 1337 2742 4702 5951 49 301 469 627 214 241 245 11 250 297 329 187 304 420 50 263 412 545 194 232 248 12 200 230 262 119 157 197 51 4t17 731 917 180 211 244 13 39 45 51 16J 193 215 52 728 1603 1522 311 384 432 14 59 68 77 170 206 233 53 77A 1011 1501 574 707 841 15 364 419 473 246 288 303 54 172 224 329 108 139 149 16 515 592 668 390 444 522 55 286 372 555 112 132 135 17 257 295 334 222 250 311 56 385 501 751 176 210 227 18 211 243 278 133 171 202 57 400 585 864 186 215 221 19 86 109 236 511 744 937 58 350 455 679 91 111 115 20 3 4 8 99 135 171 59 20 26 41 126 187 23q I 21 63 79 175 50 6& 78 60 201 261 391 83 9b 99 w 22 16 20 44 120 154 42 176 61 154 200 29B 13 411 """ 0'1 23 16 20 44 34 41 46 62 768 1059 1985 158 190 204 I 24 155 195 432 174 198 204 63 318 439 823 360 4q7 651 25 0 0 0 197 223 228 64 548 750 1398 94 tn 258 26 0 0 0 280 351 409 65 0 0 0 142 222 387 27 3 4 I:) 278 312 347 66 312 430 802 140 24i:! 368 2B 0 0 0 57 70 77 67 0 100 154 64) 1143 1701 29 0 0 0 132 147 148 68 0 0 426 89b 1463 3C 31 50 2'55 69 350 103 5t4 403 193 543 226 643 232 69 70 172 197 472 541 617 699 " 154 153 229 221 246 322 32 106 140 216 174 203 208 71 1301 3567 4647 515 662 752 33 460 632 936 194 213 212 72 320 97P 1141 1201 3033 4797 34 0 0 0 t62 203 213 73 0 2,'1 26 9' 103 106 3S 0 0 0 64 80 88 74 t82 500 648 218 307 679 36 1 3 5 145 284 459 75 37 102 134 40 58 72 37 75 109 21 291 431 619 76 66 181 236 09 194 271 38 8~ 122 26 214 306 381 77 37 In t 34 43 ql 202 )'} 75 109 21 438 bas 916 TOTAL 19273 3039 , 40049 19315 2946..1 387St> ,. l i.t. __ ~ ~ - ~. .. .. ,. ,;; '" io f!4- ..  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIUNS AND CONSUMPtIONS AY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 11 • SUGAH CANE PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE ... 1977 ----------.--.- 1989 1999 ------------------ 1917 1989 1999 ZONE ------------------ 1917 1989 1999 -------------.- 1917 1989 .. - 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 () 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 30000 40000 0 39999 50000 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 () 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 t) b 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 \I 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 0 I) 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 \) 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 I) 0 0 IJ 0 11 I) 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 I) 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 I) 0 0 0 () 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 U 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 V 0 I 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 w 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 I) 0 0 0 0 0 ,j:>. -...J 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 I) 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 56250 89945 125625 5(:1250 78190 97801 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 2984 5016 7019 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 256650 431382 606254 160759 265771 365989 30 () 0 0 0 0 0 69 0 10()OO 0 0 \) 0 31 0 0 I) 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 () 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 430 907 1134 0 0 0 33 0 0 I) 0 0 0 72 35812 60193 84595 138591 247637 366728 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 1324 2225 3128 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 I) 0 0 0 0 0 36 282 300 3&1 0 0 0 75 0 I) 0 0 0 0 37 532 565 10692 0 0 0 76 () 0 0 0 0 0 38 '591 631 773 0 0 0 17 0 'J 0 0 () 0 )9 692 735 901 0 0 0 TOTAL 355550 6317q9 8R0518 355600 631799 R80S1S  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS HY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY. 15 - GAS IN BOtTLES PRODUCTION CfJNSUMPT ION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE --------------~--- 1977 1989 1999 --_.---.---------- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ----------~------- 1977 1999 1999 ------------~----- 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 90 2 (\ 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 I) 162 335 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 40 249 401 4 0 0 0 0 0 40 43 0 0 0 20 0 113 5 0 0 0 0 43 89 44 0 0 0 0 43 89 6 0 0 0 0 0 60 45 0 0 0 0 65 134 7 0 0 0 0 54 112 46 0 0 0 60 378 781 e 0 0 0 20 199 390 47 1147 3265 7114 725 156 7 3237 9 0 0 0 50 108 223 48 0 0 0 30 195 403 10 1317 3434 7194 947 2047 4229 49 0 0 0 tOo 241J 514 11 0 0 0 60 173 357 50 0 0 0 100 227 469 12 0 0 0 50 97 200 51 0 0 0 10 130 269 13 0 0 0 30 119 246 52 0 0 0 20 0 60 14 0 0 0 SO 118 244 53 197 873 1665 197 404 775 15 0 0 0 20 140 289 54 0 0 0 10 113 233 16 0 0 0 30 216 446 55 I) 0 0 (\ 97 200 17 0 0 0 40 130 269 56 0 0 0 0 173 357 18 0 0 0 20 86 178 57 0 0 0 0 0 30 19 523 1800 3896 333 720 1487 58 0 0 0 0 0 60 20 0 0 0 60 140 289 59 0 0 0 0 0 40 w I 21 0 0 0 0 43 89 60 0 0 0 0 0 30 U1 22 0 0 0 0 108 223 61 0 0 0 0 80 178 0 I 23 0 0 0 0 22 45 62 0 0 0 20 130 269 24 0 0 0 30 184 380 63 118 595 1230 99 249 514 25 0 0 0 0 216 446 64 0 0 0 0 54 112 26 0 0 0 100 281 581 65 20 2Bl 403 20 195 403 27 0 0 0 0 B6 17B 66 0 0 (\ 0 162 335 28 0 0 0 0 0 54 67 0 0 0 50 335 692 29 0 0 0 0 86 124 6e 0 0 0 350 865 1787 30 135 784 16Bl 123 266 550 69 0 0 0 0 Bo 178 31 0 0 0 0 108 223 70 0 0 0 0 0 t:I 32 0 0 0 0 76 157 71 0 0 0 10 130 269 33 0 0 0 0 B6 17B 72 1243 3756 7610 833 2027 4186 34 0 0 0 12 108 223 73 0 0 0 0 0 100 35 0 0 0 0 54 112 74 85 227 647 85 227 469 36 0 0 0 11 32 66 75 0 0 0 0 43 89 37 0 0 0 0 0 I) 76 0 0 I) 0 0 40 38 0 0 (\ 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 130 2M 39 0 0 0 31 108 223 TOTAL 4785 15015 31500 4785 15015 31500 f LA ........ ....... L...j U U U U L.; U ~ U ~ L..~ L"",,, '-.....1 L .... ......  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRAN~PORT STUDY - PROOUCTIUNS AND CONSUMPTIUNS BY ZONE (10 rONS) COMMODITY - 16 - rETPoLEUH PRODUCTS - UNSUITABLE FOR PIPFLINES PRODUCTION PROI')IJCTION CONSUMIrTlON .. - CONSUMPTION ZONE ._.--.------_.- 1977 1999 199Q -------.-.--~----- 1977 1989 1Q99 ZONE ---------------.-- 1977 t9R9 1999 ._------_.-------- 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 5 11 18 40 0 0 0 2 3 5 2 0 0 0 4 9 15 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 7 10 27 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 3 9 15 5 0 0 0 2 4 7 44 t) 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 6 0 10 0 45 46 " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 41 68 0 0 8 0 0 0 3 6 10 41 2003 4800 1:>81:10 281 709 1176 9 0 0 0 0 Q 0 48 0 0 0 40 10 9 181 10 0 0 0 380 910 1511 49 0 0 0 9 16 27 U 0 0 0 9 22 37 50 0 0 0 11 20 33 12 0 0 0 5 to 17 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 4 7 12 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 15 27 45 53 0 0 0 42 78 130 15 0 0 0 12 21 3S 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 4 7 12 S5 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 7 12 20 S6 0 0 0 2 3 5 18 0 0 0 3 6 10 S7 0 0 0 5 9 15 19 0 0 0 221 479 797 58 0 0 0 0 \) 0 20 0 0 0 9 19 32 S9 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 V 0 w U1 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 '2 3 5 t-' I 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 6 1l 18 24 0 0 0 28 48 80 63 0 C 45 93 155 25 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 43 0 72 64 65 0 0 0 0 " 0 0 3 23 I) 53 10 88 '27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 Q 2 b to 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 39 103 171 29 0 0 0 4 7 12 68 0 0 0 150 470 782 30 0 0 0 49 99 165 69 0 0 0 3 7 12 31 0 0 0 3 6 10 70 0 0 0 0 l) 0 32 0 0 0 '} 3 5 71 0 0 0 14 27 45 13 0 0 0 2 3 5 72 0 0 IUO 399 1350 2247 34 0 0 0 17 32 53 73 0 0 {I 0 () (\ 35 0 0 0 6 11 III 74 0 0 0 30 63 105 3b () 0 0 17 50 83 75 0 0 0 1t 23 3R 37 0 0 0 2 <1 7 76 0 0 0 5 21 35 3B 0 0 I) 0 Q (I 77 ') 0 0 3 10 17 39 0 0 0 21 49 82 TOTAL 2003 4&00 1:l6'Ho' 2021 517v 8600  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 17 • PETROLEUM PRODUCTS - SUITABLE fOR PIPELINES ZONE ._._...------.---- 1917 PRODUCTION 1999 1999 CONSUMPTION -------.-----.---- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ---------------.-- 1977 1989 PRODUCTION '999 1977 CONSUMPTION ------------------ 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 231 457 940 40 0 0 0 70 119 245 2 0 0 0 50 101 2013 41 0 0 0 178 49t1 1025 3 0 0 0 30 46 95 42 0 0 0 230 44b 918 4 0 0 0 100 152 313 43 0 0 0 100 263 541 5 0 0 0 120 205 422 44 0 0 0 100 151 323 6 0 0 0 200 342 704 45 0 0 0 50 7b 156 7 0 0 0 60 93 191 46 0 0 0 8S0 1295 2665 B 0 0 0 200 323 665 47 52307 102293 166500 9679 21053 43320 9 0 0 0 50 80 165 48 0 0 0 1400 3364 6922 10 0 0 0 222513 46902 96510 49 0 0 0 300 443 q12 11 0 0 0 530 1779 3661 50 0 0 0 400 627 1290 12 0 0 0 300 520 1070 51 0 0 0 50 77 15S 13 0 0 0 80 124 255 52 0 0 0 50 81 167 14 0 0 0 900 1429 2940 53 8261 12000 18500 2526 40R5 8406 15 0 0 0 720 1107 2278 54 0 0 0 60 102 210 16 0 0 0 250 374 770 55 0 0 0 30 46 95 17 0 0 0 400 591 1216 56 0 0 0 100 161 331 16 0 0 0 200 338 696 57 0 0 (I 260 396 PIS 19 0 0 0 9357 17867 36765 58 0 0 0 50 80 165 20 0 0 0 400 719 1479 59 0 0 0 50 q7 200 I w 21 0 0 0 50 88 181 60 0 0 0 50 76 156 V1 22 0 0 0 50 84 173 61 0 0 0 100 168 346 IV I 23 0 0 a 50 So 165 62 0 0 0 100 15t! 325 24 0 0 0 1200 1797 369R 63 0 0 0 1493 2707 5570 25 0 0 0 50 75 154 64 0 0 0 50 85 175 26 0 0 0 1000 1647 3389 65 2342 0 0 1122 2297 4727 27 0 0 0 50 74 152 66 0 0 0 1(9) 2537 5220 28 ('I 0 0 20 32 66 67 0 0 0 1200 2799 5759 2q 0 0 (I 390 571 1175 68 0 0 () 4600 12702 26137 30 0 0 0 2606 4611 9488 69 0 0 0 100 lqb 4('13 )1 0 0 0 150 230 473 70 0 0 0 50 94 193 32 (I 0 0 100 152 313 71 0 0 0 420 708 1457 33 0 0 0 120 173 356 72 20539 71900 185000 12130 3622!i 74548 34 0 0 0 504 825 1698 73 0 0 0 50 7b 156 35 0 0 0 262 429 883 74 2613 0 I) 2121 8074 3924 36 () 0 0 824 2115 4352 75 0 0 0 35() 1370 666 37 0 0 0 100 195 401 76 0 0 0 150 555 1142 38 t) 0 0 30 56 115 77 0 0 0 516 1437 2q57 39 0 0 0 9U 1869 3846 TOTAL 86062 18619) 370000 87131 189532 390000 ,. " 4 ~ -iJ; C  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STIJDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 'IONS) COMMODITY· lB - IRON OPE PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMIr'TION ZONE ------------_.--.- 1911 1989 1999 ------------------ 1971 1989 1999 ZONE -----._--------.-. 1917 1989 1999 -----------.-.---- 1971 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 (I 0 0 0 I) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 () 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (I 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 (l 0 '" 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 I) 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 (I 0 () 0 0 0 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 () 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 () 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 I) 11 () 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 I) 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 () 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 () 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 () 0 0 () 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 (I 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 I) 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 I) 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 21 0 () 0 60 0 0 0 " 0 I) 0 0 0 w U1 22 () 0 () 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 w 0 I 23 0 0 () 0 0 62 {I 0 0 0 (I 0 24 f) 0 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 () 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 U 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 () 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 I) 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 () 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 {I V 0 30 I) 0 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 I) 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 () 0 0 3J (I i) 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 687 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 \) 0 37 0 0 0 20 0 0 76 0 () 0 0 0 0 38 (; 0 0 (! 0 0 17 o 170700 290000 (') 170700 290000 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOT",L 687 170700 2QOOOO 20 170700 2qOOOo  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 19 - NON.FEPROUS METALLIC MINERALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE .----------.-.-._- 1977 t989 1999 . _--------_.----.- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ------------_.-.- 1977 1989 1999 . -----------.-.---- 1977 1981.:1 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 130 268 438 0 V 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 (l 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4253 1590 784 0 0 0 43 0 0 (\ 0 0 0 5 57 90 164 0 0 0 44 5 7 14 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 166 87 54 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 (} (} 46 0 1 2 71 370 531 8 10 17 3l 0 0 0 47 0 0 0 810 3000 10390 9 B 11 t3 0 0 0 48 6 0 0 0 3165 0 10 367 216 203 18 128 224 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 I) I) 0 0 0 12 570 971 1265 177 1049 1669 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 347 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 2 4 (} 0 (} 53 18 30 60 0 0 0 15 103A 556 653 0 0 0 54 6 0 0 0 0 0 16 5 8 16 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 10SC} 2259 2004 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 u 0 18 2398 4241 7762 0 0 0 57 88 115 226 0 0 0 19 1229 7960 11 791 3622 23700 32822 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 1551 2268 11345 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 21 0 3000 0 0 0 0 60 5 2 4 (} 0 0 w 22 15 0 0 0 0 0 61 I) 0 0 0 0 0 Ln .r::. 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 24 2012 2036 2443 30 152 200 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 16 88 172 0 0 0 64 0 (I 0 0 0 0 1b 1656 2664 2887 3 19 24 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 )81 557 Rtb 0 0 0 66 0 0 I) 0 U 0 2S 55 130 212 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 3470 1302 20RO 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 )0 4244 10834 2 b 96t 9 5733 8085 69 0 0 0 I) 0 0 31 158 150 lt3 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 209 311 530 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 2710 6715 9843 0 0 0 72 0 (I 0 0 0 0 34 4170 2432 4063 557 3127 4175 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 92 107 190 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 {\ 0 0 (I 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 0 (I 37 0 0 0 (I 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 I) 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 4001 0 0 0 39 0 0 0 0 (} 0 TOTAL 32505 51025 ql146 5297 40443 58120 ,. v· '. ~ ~ .. ... :if.  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIoNS BI ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 2U - NON-METALLIC MINERALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE -----~--------.--- 1977 1989 1999 -------.---------- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ---------------.-- 1977 1989 1999 ------------------ 1977 1989 1999 1 (1 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 () 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 100 100 200 0 Q 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 (I () 0 5 0 0 0 0 Q 0 44 0 0 0 0 () Q 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 Q 0 34 38 46 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 0 472 78H 907 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 (\ 0 0 0 V 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 Q 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 104 135 179 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 673 2122 2578 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 660 1004 1950 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0 1820 0 2126 3050 3558 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 1820 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 LV 111 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 800 1200 2300 0 0 0 111 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 24 0 0 0 171 192 209 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 12 24 50 0 0 0 64 1410 2115 3269 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 2200 3170 5200 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 2720 13586 11000 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 84 147 232 29 0 0 0 2090 8296 8347 68 0 0 0 50 104 179 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 77 98 117 B 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 77 173 320 34 0 0 0 254 312 348 73 0 0 0 4R 54 SR 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 36 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 469 0 oB5 0 839 75 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 " 0 U 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 164 231 304 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 Q I) 0 469 723 921 TOTAL 7902 23019 25789 7362 1714~ 19142  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANbPORT STIJOy • PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 21 - SUGAk AND CO~FECTIONAPY PROOUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMII'I'ION ZONE --.-._------_.- 1911 19119 ..- 1999 -------.-------_.- 1917 1989 1999 ZONE -----.-._---_.-.-. 1977 1989 1999 ----_.-._---_.---- 1917 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 48 99 144 40 0 0 0 145 250 330 2 0 0 0 32 66 98 41 0 6000 bOOO 57 166 222 3 0 0 0 45 73 166 42 0 0 0 125 2'52 298 4 0 0 0 197 311 345 43 0 0 0 94 25t> 350 5 0 0 0 61 lOB 133 44 0 0 0 52 85 '01 6 () 0 0 54 96 120 45 0 0 0 62 98 116 7 0 0 0 51 82 98 46 1 1 1 589 9)3 118] 8 0 0 0 142 237 288 47 2 51 16 1901 4389 6551 9 0 0 0 19 131 158 48 (\ 0 0 93 232 702 10 51 262 396 5223 11439 11342 49 0 0 0 267 410 469 11 0 0 0 128 284 440 50 0 0 0 198 322 387 12 0 0 0 143 2!58 363 51 0 0 0 112 171:1 233 13 0 0 0 89 142 177 52 0 0 0 154 259 326 14 0 0 0 129 213 271 53 9 52 0 561 943 1258 15 0 0 0 135 216 255 54 0 0 0 61 10 8 129 16 0 0 0 242 376 496 55 0 0 0 50 81 92 17 0 0 0 222 341 415 56 0 0 0 95 160 187 19 0 0 0 141 248 326 57 0 0 0 92 145 166 19 15 0 160 1004 1992 2817 58 0 0 0 32 53 61- 20 0 105 0 207 386 547 59 0 0 0 92 lS6 266 I LV 21 0 0 0 23 42 55 60 0 0 0 36 56 67 U1 m 22 0 0 0 102 178 228 61 0 0 0 12 20 27 I 23 0 0 0 35 59 7t 62 0 0 0 49 81 97 24 0 0 0 172 268 309 63 0 0 IJ 367 b92 1015 25 0 0 0 95 141 169 64 0 0 C 25 45 105 26 0 0 0 459 186 1027 65 0 0 0 199 423 832 27 0 0 0 143 219 272 66 8810 14013 21300 122 295 490 28 0 0 0 53 89 109 67 0 0 0 495 1200 2004 29 0 0 0 158 240 272 68 12930 20319 30976 567 1621 2980 30 0 52 19 631 1160 1540 69 0 0 0 109 222 268 31 0 0 0 106 110 195 70 0 0 0 92 180 296 32 0 () 0 94 132 154 71 0 0 0 124 211 211 33 0 0 0 12 ! 181 203 72 11141 17568 20703 2676 830b 1b351 34 0 0 0 210 409 483 73 0 (I 0 81 135 155 35 0 0 0 97 166 204 14 0 0 0 234 451 1 t 17 36 0 0 0 244 6'51 1177 15 0 0 0 43 115 12u 37 0 0 8000 208 420 616 16 0 0 0 71 297 463 38 0 0 0 121 236 330 71 0 0 0 51 16b 410 39 0 0 0 120 895 1343 TOTAL 3302'5 58483 93&93 22096 475';6 14376 ,. " "" ~ ~. ,;>I: .,$>  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STIIDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS AY ZON~ (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 22 - FLOU~ AND GRAIN PRODUCTS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION --------._--_.--.- .....•..... - .. - ... -----.--._.----.- . ------------_.-.-- ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 1989 1999 1 23 178 369 63 130 212 40 75 92 106 182 323 465 2 7 10 13 40 94 139 41 21 35 42 87 253 381 3 21 24 26 58 95 240 42 9t 115 136 149 301 399 4 40 44 47 25q 409 511 43 58 76 9) 111 304 465 5 5 b 7 7t 127 174 44 &1 69 74 70 114 1515 6 '5 6 7 56 99 139 45 20 22 23 8S 134 176 7 30 14 37 70 112 151 46 155 192 223 339 531 765 8 54 63 69 204 343 465 47 2528 6347 13989 2094 4831 8107 9 30 84 37 210 181 247 48 40 43 45 95 23 13 806 10 38n9 9353 195(14 5347 11715 19946 49 193 206 212 263 405 5113 11 20 31 44 t 46 324 564 50 10,9 123 133 201 32ij 441 12 9 12 15 136 245 388 51 61 74 85 132 212 308 13 20 29 29 124 200 281 '52 86 107 125 194 327 463 14 41 50 57 157 259 370 53 623 3108 4031 732 1231 1944 15 31 34 36 173 276 367 54 36 44 51 83 147 19b 16 150 184 212 324 504 746 55 30 33 35 72 llS 150 17 20 25 30 220 338 530 56 33 38 42 122 204 271 18 11 14 17 133 233 347 57 15 16 11 127 200 258 19 3933 9137 18899 2028 4026 &391 58 7 8 9 45 75 9B 20 21 30 40 240 448 712 59 9 11 14 100 202 326 21 10 13 15 62 112 166 60 4 4 4 47 73 96 I 22 50 61 70 199 w 350 500 61 1 1 I 15 20 37 U1 23 3 3 3 56 94 128 62 4 5 5 62 102 137 -..J I 24 70 76 79 290 452 586 63 356 1062 2206 438 827 1362 25 29 31 32 139 215 27~ 64 4 5 I) 33 59 155 26 22 27 32 383 655 961 65 17 25 34 117 377 831 27 53 63 70 212 324 454 66 17 28 42 118 2R5 532 28 I 1 1 49 82 112 67 9 15 23 2S0 bOb lt37 29 33 35 36 160 243 310 68 147 281 496 491 1410 2899 30 255 1606 35~R 749 137S 2054 69 16 20 24 tt2 228 308 31 19 21 23 127 203 262 70 12 16 20 98 193 354 32 16 18 19 110 114 226 71 20 24 771 125 219 313 33 9 9 9 122 183 230 12 1761 70 8 1 9713 2358 7323 16183 34 21 25 28 215 366 486 73 2 2 2 92 143 183 35 3J 39 44 11t 189 263 74 5 7 9 212 408 1135 36 40 74 121 252 672 1367 75 4 5 39 76 37 )8 7 6 10 a 13 10 218 87 279 170 505 2&7 76 71 4 4 6 6 " a 751 09 51 265 141:1 123 46b 413 39 Ii 283 621 237 505 853 TOTAL 15&03 42103 77925 23727 50051 B61R4  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPOPT SrUoY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSOMPTIONS BY ZUNE (10 TONS) COMMODITY • 23 - 9EVERAGES PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPf!ON ------------ .. ---- .------... _-._._.- ----._------_.-.-. ------------------ ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 1989 199Q 1 217 416 58t 133 265 317 40 67 67 b7 148 254 26b 2 3 3 3 130 262 317 41 21 21 21 7P 220 241 3 7 7 7 105 166 30a 42 55 55 55 119 232 222 4 06 66 66 JoB 564 5it 43 50 50 50 9' 241 269 5 9 9 9 156 269 270 44 53 53 53 35 5b 54 6 9 9 9 309 533 543 45 20 20 20 71 109 104 1 59 50 50 123 192 187 46 756 800 1118 355 544 565 B 90 9Q 90 659 1071 1059 47 3042 BIR7 12665 1954 4371 531R 9 49 49 49 281 451 447 48 36 36 36 98 237 587 10 9137 13882 19423 6149 13050 16187 49 172 172 172 245 364 340 11 55 55 55 454 975 1237 50 98 98 98 200 315 310 12 15 295 3H 423 738 850 51 57 57 57 113 174 186 13 37 37 )7 414 649 663 52 78 78 78 156 255 26) 14 68 66 bS 403 644 669 53 383 434 606 661 1077 1174 15 52 52 72 291 451 435 54 0 0 0 77 131 1213 16 709 709 708 779 1174 1264 55 0 0 4) 61 95 89 17 32 32 12 405 604 688 56 0 0 0 119 194 186 18 18 18 120 179 304 329 57 383 400 399 11S 191 170 19 1355 16028 3138 1268 2438 2820 58 0 0 0 4(1 64 62 20 14 14 12988 269 487 5b4 59 0 0 0 1 HI 232 271 I 21 6 6 6 91 160 172 60 I) 0 0 46 70 67 w U1 22 32 32 32 131 223 232 61 0 0 0 15 25 26 , co 23 7. 21 2 45 73 73 62 0 0 0 60 9~ 94 24 3316 3316 0 223 336 318 63 2040 3221 4822 526 961 1154 25 47 47 47 243 364 342 64 6 6 6 33 57 109 26 41 41 41 593 983 1051 65 22 22 22 255 526 844 27 83 93 83 301 446 456 66 23 23 B 153 357 487 28 2 2 2 70 113 114 67 27 27 998 590 13Rb 1894 29 123 123 123 197 290 2b9 68 1151 2152 3222 867 2412 3614 30 647 1035 1446 805 1434 1557 69 52 52 52 137 269 266 31 41 41 41 135 209 196 70 151 151 151 t19 220 304 32 2b 26 26 107 165 156 71 32 32 32 154 261 273 33 1t It 11 156 226 206 72 3174 11908 17232 2577 7752 1248~ 34 82 R2 82 309 509 494 73 7 7 7 114 172 161 35 16 16 16 126 208 211 74 19 19 19 303 56!> 1145 36 167 494 691 300 776 1148 75 3 3 3 56 107 124 37 0 0 0 199 389 514 76 11 12 11 98 365 4&7 38 0 0 0 120 227 259 77 3 3 3 74 208 422 )9 267 381 534 366 756 929 TOTAL 21:1R93 65813 R3tOO 2884R 58334 73120 ;. • . " __ ..-~ A ........ iit.~ <i!. ~-~ ~- ~ iii .$ .... ~  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS By ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 24 - OTHER FOOD ____ . __ ____ ._w __ . PRODUCTION ~ CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION --_._.-._---_.-.-- CONSUMPTION ZONE 1977 1989 1999 -------.-----.-.-- .917 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 1999 -.- 1977 .•. ---.-.-.-.-- 1989 1999 1 15 24 30 44 64 58 40 182 1036 375 95 11t1 95 2 5 9 11 15 22 20 41 51 82 104 19 3& 33 3 26 42 53 35 40 57 42 205 334 421 101 144 105 4 22 36 46 98 109 75 43 142 231 293 68 131 111 5 3 5 7 44 55 42 44 1St 245 310 18 20 16 6 15 24 30 44 S5 43 45 52 85 107 33 36 27 7 17 27 35 33 37 29 46 1~25 3130 3963 523 5P2 461 8 29 48 60 53 63 47 47 2407 3912 4901 2312 3753 34 9 6 9 16 26 33 39 46 34 48 105 1'71 217 91 160 301 10 282 9 4600 5857 6991 10762 10185 49 475 772 979 261 281 201 11 &2 101 128 98 153 148 50 268 436 549 196 225 168 12 16 26 33 154 195 172 51 155 251 320 84 94 77 13 12 20 25 32 36 28 52 212 345 439 100 118 93 t4 322 523 664 96 111 88 53 309 438 641 6&5 78b 654 15 17 27 35 83 93 69 54 18 29 37 39 49 36 16 82 133 16f1 174 190 156 55 15 24 30 22 24 18 17 10 16 21 230 249 216 56 17 28 36 58 69 50 18 '5 9 11 154 190 157 57 8 1703 1389 23 25 18 19 162 263 )29 1300 18D 1600 158 3 5 7 9 10 R 20 2 3 5 273 358 316 59 9 15 19 72 102 92 21 0 0 0 6 8 6 60 3 5 7 14 15 11 I 22 2 3 5 84 103 83 61 I 2 3 6 7 5 w V1 23 0 0 0 36 42 33 62 5 8 9 Is:! 21 16 \0 1 24 4 7 8 173 189 136 63 346 5562 5290 430 570 52'2 25 11 17 22 22 24 17 64 6 10 13 11 14 20 26 17 2e 36 567 682 556 65 23 1038 1878 2)"7 354 434 27 21> , 19 31 2 40 ) 46 91 50 107 38 82 66 67 21 1414 34 2299 42 29tO 127 721 21b 1228 224 1,8('1 29 1124 1881 2316 181 193 137 68 513 932 1181 680 1372 1568 30 84 137 174 785 1015 840 69 29 48 bO I 1I lSI;! 119 II 7 11 14 60 68 48 70 14 293 28 88 121 124 32 6 10 13 25 28 20 71 49 80 101 128 15!! 125 33 2 3 5 96 101 70 72 4357 7375 9336 3102 6770 8322 34 12 20 25 279 334 247 73 11 18 B 82 89 64 35 4 7 8 11P 141 109 74 29 47 59 275 371 576 36 90 146 tS3 302 567 640 75 4 7 8 51 71 62 37 334 553 161);1 219 311 313 76 17 27 34 94 254 248 38 167 271 343 128 176 153 77 5 1689 1507 72 147 227 39 fl47 137b 1739 445 667 625 TOTAL 20014 43211 SlRb3 24689 3814b 37699  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS ay ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITV - 24A- FOOD OtSTPI8UTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE --~-.--------.--.- 1977 t989 1999 -------.---_._---- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE -----.---._-_.-.-. t977 19SQ 1999 ._-._--------.---- 1977 t98~ 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 330 442 669 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 191 423 663 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 241 369 512 4 0 0 0 1013 1214 1585 43 0 0 0 185 3A3 614 5 0 0 0 269 363 525 44 0 0 0 132 164 232 ~ 0 0 0 261 352 516 45 0 0 I) 172 200 284 7 0 0 0 359 439 614 46 0 0 0 452 54J 811 8 0 0 0 818 1041 1480 47 3.300 4734 7608 300 525 923 9 0 0 0 405 508 725 48 0 0 0 135 256 910 10 8106 9532 14641 948 1575 2811 49 0 0 0 317 369 497 11 I) 0 0 643 1081 1973 50 Q 0 0 267 330 466 12 I) 0 0 449 &14 1016 51 0 0 0 224 272 415 13 0 0 0 561 688 1011 52 0 0 0 354 452 672 14 0 0 0 629 787 1177 5~ 234 738 11 J7 110 140 220 15 0 0 0 719 870 1208 54 0 0 0 62 83 116 16 337 2440 3859 1182 1394 2160 55 0 0 0 62 75 102 17 0 0 0 701 818 1341 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 172 229 356 57 0 0 0 0 (} 0 19 2207 3782 5757 670 1009 1678 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 1()3 230 385 59 0 0 0 199 304 512 I 21 0 0 0 73 100 155 60 0 0 0 114 130 187 w 22 0 0 0 196 261 391 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0"1 0 2~ 0 0 0 155 197 283 62 0 0 0 153 190 270 I 24 1134 0 0 762 900 1222 63 1582 1487 2911 346 495 855 25 0 0 0 109 128 172 64 0 0 0 79 101 29& 26 0 0 0 737 957 1471 65 0 0 0 227 367 848 27 0 0 0 720 836 1228 66 0 0 0 179 328 642 28 0 0 0 331 420 607 67 0 0 0 612 1126 2212 29 0 0 0 657 758 1010 68 1414 3618 1215 878 1911 4120 30 4138 4857 b962 991 1368 2137 69 0 0 0 305 470 668 31 (,\ 0 0 430 522 704 70 0 0 0 75 Ul 215 32 0 0 0 426 512 696 71 0 0 0 8lJ 117 175 33 0 0 0 389 441 580 72 1169 1357 3054 391 920 2132 34 0 0 0 359 463 645 73 0 0 ae 119 35 36 111 0 514 0 720 0 40 4) 51 0 75 0 74 7S " 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 133 25 194 37 566 62 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 3e 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 \) 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 'fOTAL 23732 3:1059 53924 23738 33059 53924 .j ,~ .  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRAN~PORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSlJMPTIONS 8¥ ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 25 - TEXTILES PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMP'tION ZONE .-----------_.--.- 1977 1989 1999 -------.-------._- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ------------_.-.-. 1971 1989 1999 -----------._.---- 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 16 20 27 40 21 26 30 0 0 0 2 () 0 0 11 14 19 41 4 5 6 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 42 36 45 54 0 0 () 4 25 27 29 0 0 0 43 17 22 27 0 0 0 5 3 4 5 0 0 0 44 16 1 f:l 20 (I 0 0 6 3 4 5 0 0 0 45 8 9 10 0 0 0 7 19 21 23 33 33 36 46 452 559 656 381 368 439 8 34 40 45 0 0 0 47 2907 5261 8549 2137 3011 4221 9 19 22 24 0 0 0 48 12 13 14 0 0 0 10 4749 6669 10292 4302 5751 8188 49 57 61 b3 0 0 0 11 21 32 45 0 0 0 50 31 3S 38 0 0 () 12 6 e 10 0 0 0 51 24 29 34 0 0 0 13 14 17 19 0 0 0 52 25 31 36 52 54 64 14 26 31 36 78 78 94 53 124 308 497 364 373 46~ 15 20 22 24 0 0 0 54 7 9 10 0 0 0 16 94 115 134 55 52 64 5S 6 7 8 0 0 0 17 12 15 18 0 0 () 56 7 8 9 0 0 () 18 7 9 11 0 0 0 57 3 3 3 0 0 0 19 431 657 1039 720 872 1158 58 2 2 2 0 0 0 , w 20 21 , 2 5 3 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 () 59 60 1 () 1 0 1 () 35 () 43 (} 58 0 0"1 22 6 7 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 V , i-' 23 24 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 62 () 7 16 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 63 243 279 385 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 188 197 241 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 6 10 15 0 0 I) 29 3 3 3 0 0 0 68 24 48 84 271 4,.. Sib 30 6 13 22 429 481 600 69 11 14 11 41 51 57 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 2 3 4 32 39 59 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 6 7 8 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 714 1855 2980 1156 2392 4045 H 0 0 0 () 0 ('I 73 1 1 1 0 I,) 0 35 0 0 0 115 119 139 74 4 5 6 0 V 0 36 0 0 0 80 130 222 75 1 1 1 16 19 25 37 0 0 0 52 f>4 97 76 47 66 86 47 11 t 162 38 0 0 0 32 38 50 77 1 1 1 20 3~ 83 39 4\ s:JQ 126 114 148 209 TOTAL 10136 162Qo 252i9 11020 15246 22026  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTION& AND CONSUMPTIONS by ZONE (IU TONS) COMMODITY • 26 - WOOD AND WOOO PRODUCTS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE .-.--.-------.-._- 1977 1989 1999 ------- 1977 .. _-------- 1999 1999 ZONE ----------~-----.- 1977 1989 1999 -------------.---- 1977 1989 1999 1 104 359 787 59 96 158 40 200 250 300 101 141 205 2 36 109 151. 30 49 82 41 lOCO 1300 1600 59 135 205 3 30 95 190 37 48 121 42 255 600 700 73 llb 155 4 50 50 bO 190 238 297 43 217 290 3bO 57 123 199 5 0 0 0 49 67 93 44 0 0 0 40 51 71 6 40(1 400 500 35 49 69 45 0 0 0 53 6b 88 7 0 0 0 42 53 72 46 182 225 260 139 174 249 B (I 0 0 152 201 274 47 4500 12000 29500 69515 10691 21371 9 0 0 0 77 100 137 4B 100 120 130 41 81 275 10 2340 3921 8501 7979 13911 23625 49 100 110 120 97 117 15! 11 7000 3000 4200 100 175 307 50 100 115 125 82 lOb 143 12 200 100 400 69 9B 155 51 200 240 280 69 8tl 127 13 0 0 (I 9'5 122 171 52 100 125 150 lOR 143 205 14 0 0 0 251 328 469 53 1500 3400 5500 2761 366~ 5518 15 0 0 0 301 390 506 54 0 0 0 51 71 96 16 0 0 0 201 247 367 55 90 100 U5 50 64 82 17 200 260 100 113 138 216 56 996 1200 1600 84 111 147 18 0 0 0 63 99 130 57 0 0 0 110 138 178 19 130 520 1000 1736 2722 4343 58 0 0 0 38 50 65 20 0 0 0 6() 99 141 59 980 1200 1600 68 lOS 175 I 21 0 (I 0 26 39 55 60 0 0 0 40 50 65 w 0'1 22 () 0 0 72 100 144 61 1309 1500 1800 13 11:1 25 IV I 23 0 0 0 20 26 37 62 50 70 140 53 68 93 24 0 0 0 96 118 154 63 1100 2000 14000 1204 1794 2971 25 0 0 0 251 306 397 64 1150 1500 Ij:100 27 38 102 26 0 0 0 502 679 11'00 65 2200 HOO 4700 201('1 3381 7488 27 0 0 0 164 198 280 66 299 500 800 62 111:1 222 28 0 0 0 34 46 62 67 712! 12000 181)00 1010 1935 3646 29 100 400 900 68 82 105 68 4350 8500 15000 501fl 11381 23522 30 400 1600 3200 1104 1605 2402 69 200 260 310 199 320 435 31 0 0 0 98 124 161 70 300 400 500 55 85 3159 32 () 0 0 97 122 158 71 340 4tO 410 64 89 127 33 0 0 0 87 102 130 72 11951 23000 44000 10054 22624 51684 34 I) 0 0 99 133 178 73 30 40 45 55 67 88 35 0 0 0 37 50 69 74 400 530 660 97 148 413 36 102() 3545 6000 25! 529 1081 75 400 550 700 18 28 45 37 BOO 2800 3~00 128 205 372 76 500 700 900 2Q 88 155 3E1 )01') tooo 1700 45 69 t09 77 100 140 31HO 19 43 121 39 JOO 350 2000 150 253 428 TOTAL 50400 953B3 182934 4b030 82401 163111 .. ,;Ii . .. :.oil ~ _ = _ M _ • ~ * • ~ _ i);  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY· PRODUCTIONS A~D CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 27 - PAPEk AND PAPER PRODUCTS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTIUN CONSUMPTION ZONE ----------- 1977 1989 ...-.. - 1999 ------_.- 1977 ..----_.- 1989 1999 ZONE -._.-------_ 1977 1989 ..-.-. 1999 -----------.- 1977 nHJ9 .. _-- 1999 1 0 0 0 3 8 14 40 ('I n 0 11 2@ 38 2 0 0 0 J 8 14 41 0 0 0 6 24 36 3 0 0 0 4 10 21 42 0 0 0 8 22 29 4 0 0 0 20 44 52 43 I) 0 0 6 22 33 5 0 0 0 5 12 17 44 0 0 I) 4 10 12 6 0 0 0 4 10 14 45 0 0 0 6 14 17 7 0 0 0 5 12 14 46 0 0 0 15 32 45 8 0 0 0 16 38 48 47 99 749 1013 376 120 7 1951 9 0 0 0 8 18 24 48 0 0 0 4 14 45 10 1663 3315 6573 2074 6396 10499 49 0 0 0 10 22 26 11 0 0 0 11 34 57 50 0 0 0 I) 20 26 12 0 0 0 7 18 26 51 0 0 0 7 Ib 2t 13 0 0 0 10 22 31 52 0 0 0 12 28 38 !4 0 0 0 10 22 31 53 1 8 17 76 178 258 IS 16 30 34 13 28 36 54 0 0 0 6 14 lQ 16 0 0 0 20 44 62 55 0 0 0 5 12 14 11 0 0 0 12 26 38 56 0 0 0 9 20 26 18 0 0 0 7 18 24 57 0 0 0 12 26 33 19 40 188 372 300 829 1267 58 0 0 0 4 10 12 20 0 0 0 7 18 29 59 0 0 0 7 20 31 I w 21 0 0 0 3 8 12 60 0 0 0 4 IS 12 0'\ 22 0 0 0 8 20 26 61 0 0 0 t 2 2 w I 23 24 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2 10 4 22 7 26 62 63 0 4 0 208 0 917 6 76 14 200 17 317 25 0 0 13 28 36 64 () 0 0 3 9 19 2b 0 0 0 18 42 60 65 0 0 0 8 24 50 27 0 0 0 18 38 52 66 0 2500 bOOO 7 24 43 28 0 0 0 4 10 12 67 0 0 0 1J 44 79 29 0 0 0 7 14 19 68 0 0 0 21 84 167 30 69 146 289 151 386 556 69 0 0 0 6 16 21 31 0 CI 0 11 24 31 70 0 0 0 6 1~ 29 32 0 0 0 11 24 31 71 0 0 0 7 UI 24 33 0 0 0 9 18 21 72 115 4472 5037 434 ISH 3998 34 0 0 0 11 26 33 73 0 0 0 6 Ii 17 35 0 0 0 4 10 12 74 0 0 Q 10 26 72 36 0 0 0 8 30 57 75 0 0 0 2 b 10 37 0 0 0 4 12 19 76 0 0 0 3 16 26 38 0 0 0 2 6 7 77 0 0 0 2 8 21 39 2 4 8 19 56 91 TOTAL 2009 11b20 20200 4060 12534 21000  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS By ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 28 - FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PPOOUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE -----~------------ 1971 1989 1999 .--_ 1977 .. _--.-----.-- 1989 1999 ZONE --- .. 1977 _------_.-.-. 1989 1999 ------- 1977 ...-.-.-.-- 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 44 197 370 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 41 302 594 3 0 0 0 18 42 0 0 102 520 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 " 21 5 84 22 53 135 41 43 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 23 178 95 899 359 170 6 0 0 0 2 7 18 45 0 0 0 26 lOb 176 7 0 0 0 4 15 29 46 200 300 1615 140 560 1040 a 0 0 0 12 51 88 47 300 450 2437 49 287 629 9 0 0 0 7 29 53 48 0 0 0 76 4RO 2128 10 132 198 10b6 10 55 123 49 100 150 807 140 542 911 11 0 0 0 13 73 165 50 0 0 0 b4 262 464 12 0 0 0 9 40 82 51 0 0 0 134 542 1029 13 0 0 0 9 36 65 52 0 0 0 4q 207 3SA 14 0 0 0 6 25 47 53 0 0 0 16 69 135 15 -0 0 0 9 36 65 54 0 0 0 10 44 76 16 0 0 0 18 69 135 I5S 0 0 0 10 40 71 17 0 0 0 9 36 71 56 0 0 0 16 69 119 18 0 0 0 3 15 24 57 0 IJ 0 18 73 123 19 0 0 0 7 36 71 58 0 0 0 8 33 59 1 20 0 0 0 1 4 12 59 0 0 0 10 51 106 w 21 0 0 0 3 15 29 60 0 0 0 10 40 71 0"\ 01:> 22 0 0 0 8 36 65 61 0 0 0 2 7 t8 1 23 0 0 0 3 11 24 62 50 75 396 36 149 265 24 0 0 0 8 33 53 63 100 150 807 33 151) 341 25 0 0 0 12 47 76 64 0 0 0 18 RO 282 26 I) 0 0 7 29 59 65 0 0 0 27 141) 417 27 0 0 0 lR 69 129 66 0 0 0 36 218 535 28 IJ 0 0 2 7 18 67 0 0 807 55 340 826 29 0 2000 0 3 11 18 68 100 150 807 89 644 t 734 30 0 1800 8532 7 33 65 69 0 0 0 29 149 265 31 0 0 0 £! 33 53 70 0 0 0 19 95 22q 32 0 0 0 B 33 53 71 0 0 0 29 127 241 33 0 0 0 5 18 29 72 100 150 0 1)5 509 1475 34 0 0 0 3 15 24 73 0 0 0 24 95 159 )5 0 0 0 1 4 6 74 J (I \) 24 l1b 423 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 2 11 24 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 (I 0 0 7 69 159 38 0 0 0 0 0 (I 77 0 0 1066 2 15 '53 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 1082 6423 18340 1754 B668 19340 iii .-Ii ~ 11:" ,. '~ lit '" <jj  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY • 29 - OTHER CHEMICALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ----. __ .... -_.- .. - . ------.----_ ... _- PRODUCTION ---------------.- . CONSUMPTION ---._.--_.---.-.-- ZONE 1911 1989 1999 1971 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 19~9 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 3 6 17 40 0 0 0 0 0 I) 2 0 0 0 2 4 12 41 () 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 Q 4 0 0 0 3 4 9 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 2 1 9 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 2 3 6 46 0 {I 0 16 26 58 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 1519 2400 3 9 054 2088 4804 13209 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 (l 10 3070 4600 9714 3450 7529 11033 49 0 0 0 6 9 20 11 0 0 0 6 13 38 50 0 0 0 '7 11 26 12 0 0 0 2 4 9 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 5400 3204 0 2540 4000 53 192 300 651 231 387 951 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 24 42 93 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 120 184 471 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 16 29 67 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 1295 2000 4206 762 1508 3924 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 160 298 777 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 I w 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 m 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .U1 62 0 0 I 24 1 10 20 8 13 26 63 124 200 421 151 287 777 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 239 24 407 37 980 94 64 65 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 " 0 39 0 0 tt9 28 0 2500 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 160 242 506 68 0 0 0 120 343 11 58 30 221 2870 4707 393 720 1160 69 0 0 0 0 0 () 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 8 11 23 72 657 1000 2103 1160 35R9 13014 34 0 0 0 120 204 442 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 11 22 96 36 0 0 0 3 9 26 75 0 0 0 0 0 (I 37 0 0 0 0 0 ('I 16 0 (\ 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 33 50 100 52 110 305 TOTAL 7178 21331) 641KO 9367 23437 6Q045  BOLIVIA N~TIONAL TRANSPURT STUDY • PRODUCTIONS AND CONSU~PTIONS bY ZONE (to TONS) COMMOUITY - 30 - SAND AND AGGPEGATES PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSU'IPTION ZONE ------------------ 1977 1999 1999 -_._-- 1977 .......----- ,989 1999 ZONE -------------.-.-- 1977 1989 1999 --------_.-.-.---- 1977 '98\11 1999 1 153 300 389 153 190 200 40 472 900 116~ 86 q2 £15 2 48 90 117 48 61 64 41 768 151)0 1946 200 351 DR 3 9C 170 218 90 t:l8 145 42 1624R lROOO 24000 813 9AB ll42 4 610 1160 1479 4as 462 370 43 6n 1 10 IS5 111 183 180 5 52 100 128 102 109 97 44 1493 2800 35i:!1 37 3t> 32 6 51 1'>0 128 101 108 97 45 909 1700 ll~O 353 )Jb 285 7 373 700 934 224 217 187 4b 852 IbOO t014 1810 1725 1581 8 1569 3000 3892 487 ~91 429 47 1/49 6890 3114 24063 3343t! 36063 9 1063 2000 2559 434 431 37R 48 356 700 934 107 Ib1 351 10 12894 24000 31140 29708 39157 4,,903 49 b351 12000 155 7 0 449 41~ 347 11 50'5 1000 1323 497 663 743 50 SS8 16 1JO 2024 1142 1120 970 12 321 600 778 H1 337 343 51 1.37 450 544 87 84 79 13 2651 5000 b4bl 274 267 240 '52 140 270 311 202 204 187 14 8284 15000 19462 532 2076 2085 53 15255 170('10 n1,)1') 154b9 15650 ,5081 15 116'5 2200 2802 367 353 301 54 291 550 700 102 to!:! 94 16 3099 6000 7785 734 687 653 5S 125 240 311 225 217 180 17 497 9'50 1245 402 372 375 56 IS2 700 934 252 255 216 t8 t81 340 467 134 142 135 0;7 216 410 545 216 205 170 19 2561 4900 BOOO 4104 4901 5407 58 '243 460 592 40 40 34 20 1 9 69 37(}0 0000 347 390 399 59 369 700 934 369 449 465 21 95 180 300 85 93 09 60 58 110 140 58 5~ 46 I 22 1070 2000 3300 219 211 214 61 77 150 195 77 81 74 w 0'\ 23 25 50 100 45 45 40 62 249 470 601 108 107 93 0'\ I 24 537 1020 1700 309 2789 3241 63 1969 3700 d900 1 9 13 2670 2802 25 tl1 210 272 90 R4 70 64 56 110 140 116 12~ 212 26 120 230 31 1 560 577 544 65 825 tbOO 2024 B25 105 7 1499 27 50 100 132 149 137 124 66 403 770 1012 413 599 721 ,e 111)9 2200 2802 104 105 93 fl7 7059 13eoo lb]4b 2245 n7!:1 3953 29 5Q3 950 1246 285 261 214 68 35SCl 6800 1:1501 'l2b9 IbQOb 21191 )0 509~ 9700 12456 5BH 64'57 b191 69 261 SOD 900 261 31 9 278 31 702 t450 lflbS 292 21-11 233 70 262 SOO BOO 2b2 309 367 32 2b7 500 tl23 241 no 192 71 424 'l('ll) 1300 ,}67 2'3l 259 33 1& R )2(.1 3~9 336 302 244 72 72791 850')0 9jOOO 72215 134908 lQ1B93 34 q'J" 1700 o!179 Sb7 899 759 73 191 300 600 157 140 121 ~5 ')3") 4'50 543 471 HI) 433 74 hOB 1200 20)0 654 757 1357 31- t; ~~ 1 toOO IJ1:! 41: ~ 740 967 75 92 170 300 107 , 27 1)(1 37 375 700 0)4 375 45(:) ')H 76 237 450 700 237 54ti blq 3(' 171 340 1".., 177 :lOB 209 77 763 75')0 d800 263 295~ 3321 39 .., ~ \' 1 '100 1 7 'HI ! 070 1373 1489 TOTAL 1870R4 287630 357Qj9 1810114 2~n"'3( 357q4() ijJ< " 4 . .. ... '" '!&' 1111 ., .. '$'; • .. #:!: • • ,:A  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUuY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS By ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 31 - LIME AND PLASTE~ PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE --~---.----------- 1977 1989 1999 ------------------ 1977 1989 1999 ZONE -------------.-.-- 1977 1989 1999 -----------.---.-- 1977 ,989 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 5 " 691 0 1140 0 0 3274 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 43 44 () 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 49 0 0 b9 6 330 540 1559 81 120 170 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1823 3000 8730 1460 1956 3132 46 48 80 234 37 49 72 8 487 800 2338 0 0 0 47 1289 2100 6080 945 1815 4663 9 15 25 78 84 115 161 48 13643 19]40 36949 13787 20cH 35286 10 1508 2500 7171 1520 2769 6371 49 ('I 0 0 35 44 59 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 482 800 2338 5552 7523 10342 12 0 0 0 6 10 16 51 0 0 () 0 0 I) 13 200 330 935 00 80 115 52 0 0 0 59 SJ 12v 14 11404 24800 21046 11369 21604 53889 53 14587 24000 31180 14597 20405 32753 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 508 840 2494 68 9 III 136 16 8 13 31 37 48 73 55 4600 7600 21S25 23 31 41 17 10 17 47 0 0 0 56 645 300 935 6 8 11 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 31 41 53 19 3618 6000 17148 4049 6682 10830 58 0 0 0 91 126 1bR 20 20 33 94 17 26 42 59 181 300 935 584 982 1613 I 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 120 157 210 w C'\ 22 9 15 47 0 0 0 61 29 50 140 0 0 0 -..J 23 303 500 1403 223 310 435 62 I) BOOO 12471 0 aool) U I 24 324 37530 59239 36 37047 46830 63 712 1200 3430 716 10120 25273 25 155 260 748 92 119 156 64 151 250 711 0 (; 0 26 2 3 9 209 297 446 65 100 160 468 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 2B 36 51 66 5 8 H 248 491:1 94P 28 476 790 2339 216 300 422 67 0 0 0 49 99 189 29 1778 2900 94'8 2094 9148 4215 68 0 0 I) 0 () 0 30 10 7517 12739 91 139 212 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 19 25 33 70 308 510 1403 258 421 792 32 226 370 1091 1548 2040 3325 71 0 0 0 4 6 9 33 0 0 0 220 274 351 72 10 17 47 94 243 25331 34 404 670 1871 509 721 977 73 0 0 (1 0 (} 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 49 SO 2,H 33 53 150 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 ('I 0 0 6 10 17 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 Q 1 4- 6 3f' 0 0 (') 0 0 0 77 I) 29600 4b144 10 29624 46837 39 0 0 0 0 0 (I TOTAL 61147 IB49RR 317400 6135P 1B49a~ 317400  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS dY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 32 - BRICKS,CERAMICS,CONCRET~ PPUDUCTS AND OTHERS PPODUCTlON CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUM~TION . _.----_.-.--.- .. - .._----.- .. _.--.-- ----------- ..• -.- . -------------.---- ZONE 1977 1989 1999 t 977 1989 1999 ZONE 1977 1989 1999 1977 198\1 1999 1 0 0 0 69 108 165 40 0 0 0 34 40 62 2 0 0 0 24 38 59 41 0 0 t) 69 153 214 3 Q 0 0 31 38 91 42 0 0 0 27q 428 527 4 0 0 0 157 lee 219 43 0 0 0 42 88 125 5 Q 0 0 36 48 63 44 0 0 0 11 13 lR b 0 0 0 38 51 67 45 0 0 0 117 141 172 7 0 0 0 78 96 118 46 0 0 0 463 557 739 8 0 0 0 157 200 253 47 3626 5856 11114 1946 3410 5329 9 0 0 0 140 176 223 48 0 0 0 45 85 226q 10 7223 10734 1 8 201 6869 16434 24123 49 0 0 () 165 19 3 230 11 0 0 0 172 290 470 50 0 0 0 110 137 171 12 0 0 0 120 164 242 51 0 0 0 37 45 60 13 0 0 0 93 114 150 52 0 0 0 75 96 127 14 271 6093 0261 188 236 313 53 331 650 1235 761 973 1356 15 0 0 0 125 152 188 54 0 0 0 41 S5 69 16 271 297 408 248 293 403 55 0 0 0 79 90 116 17 0 0 0 156 183 266 56 0 0 0 99 120 155 18 0 0 0 SI:J 79 108 57 0 0 (') 92 98 119 19 2140 7156 8977 987 1489 2200 58 0 0 0 16 21 25 20 0 0 0 147 209 308 59 0 0 0 140 214 322 I w 21 0 0 0 29 40 55 60 0 0 0 24 28 35 0'1 22 0 0 0 80 107 142 61 0 0 0 27 31:> 47 co I 23 0 0 0 18 23 29 62 0 0 0 34 43 53 24 17 18 20 123 146 175 63 1016 1520 29]2 626 997 1376 25 0 0 0 39 46 55 64 4 5 6 38 51 127 26 0 0 0 292 367 501 65 0 0 0 325 52b 10H 27 (,) 0 0 61 71 93 66 0 0 0 ISS 290 504 28 0 0 0 45 57 73 67 0 0 0 170 313 540 29 0 0 0 126 146 172 68 2000 2685 5056 456 995 1905 30 317 488 0 691 966 1339 69 0 0 0 95 147 18S 31 0 0 0 108 131 157 70 0 0 0 95 141 243 32 0 0 0 88 106 128 7t 0 0 0 96 12 8 170 33 0 0 0 131 149 174 72 4120 21456 26291 3434 22899 27474 34 0 0 0 346 447 554 73 0 0 0 59 6~ 8) 35 0 0 0 179 230 300 74 0 0 0 261 382 989 36 37 142 0 174 0 338 0 203 149 411 229 778 385 75 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 4' 93 63 271 9) 444 38 n 0 0 72 107 156 77 0 0 0 100 220 57 :2 39 £U2 1037 2022 40B 661 1037 TOTAL 22320 58169 82801 23B15 595Ub fH461 oj. iii . .. ... . .. .. . ... 0.\ <" !Ii ., .. J, '" .. .. •  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS Bt ZONE (10 TONS) COHMODIT~ - 33 • CEMENT PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE ------------_.- 1977 1989 .. - 1999 -.---------------- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ------------ 1911 1.989 .. -.-. 1999 --------_.-.-.-.-- 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 84 247 261 40 0 0 I) 42 107 110 2 0 0 0 )0 88 95 41 0 0 0 85 354 370 3 0 0 0 31 Fl6 2500 42 0 0 0 341 982 1020 4 0 0 0 191 432 450 43 0 0 0 5j 19'1 225 5 0 0 0 44 111 115 44 0 0 0 13 31 35 6 0 0 0 46 117 120 45 0 0 0 143 323 34('1 1 0 0 0 96 220 230 46 0 0 0 566 llS0 1320 9 0 0 0 193 462 415 41 419 671 1016 238t 78lb 9400 9 0 0 0 112 405 420 48 8316 12582 20176 56 200 800 10 315 571 916 8393 262'47 28870 49 0 0 I) 202 444 480 11 0 0 0 210 664 149 50 0 0 0 134 312 325 12 0 0 0 147 378 386 51 0 0 0 45 1003 110 13 0 0 0 113 261 270 52 0 0 0 92 222 230 14 7124 15062 1 7 876 229 541 550 53 9263 14048 22528 928 222 8 2600 15 0 0 0 153 349 360 54 0 0 0 50 125 130 16 0 0 0 303 672 700 55 0 0 0 97 222 230 17 0 0 0 190 417 425 56 0 0 0 120 2~8 300 18 0 0 0 73 183 190 51 I) 0 0 lOt 228 240 19 313 1171 1877 1205 3414 3900 58 0 0 U 20 47 50 20 0 0 0 180 479 500 59 0 0 0 172 495 520 1 21 0 0 0 35 90 95 60 0 () 0 66 70 LV 29 0'1 22 0 0 0 99 245 260 61 0 0 0 34 84 90 \D I 23 0 0 0 23 5S 60 62 0 5000 5000 41 97 105 24 0 25000 25000 150 333 340 63 455 1342 3755 764 2055 2800 25 0 0 0 18 107 115 64 0 0 0 47 119 2500 26 0 0 0 345 843 880 65 /} 0 I} 398 1211 1400 27 0 0 0 74 162 170 66 0 0 0 194 &68 680 28 0 0 0 55 132 140 67 0 0 0 209 719 740 29 755 1111 1258 154 33S 345 68 0 0 0 557 2281 2800 )0 0 0 0 945 2220 2£100 69 0 0 0 116 337 350 31 0 0 0 132 302 310 70 () I} 0 116 325 345 32 0 0 0 lOB 245 255 71 0 0 0 118 29b 320 33 0 0 0 159 339 350 72 0 0 I) 4194 18589 25000 34 0 0 0 422 1026 1060 73 0 I} 0 72 151:1 170 35 0 0 () 218 530 550 74 0 0 0 319 tl7b 2593 36 0 0 0 247 941 1000 75 I) 0 0 51 144 120 31 0 0 () 182 524 '545 76 0 0 I} 114 b2S &7'5 3D I) 0 0 89 249 200 17 0 2.1512 23632 122 504 BOO 39 0 0 0 4<}q 1519 1600 TOTAL 27080 101130 123094 29'05 91130 113094  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDI - PRODUrTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS ~r ZONE rio TONS) COMMODITY - 31 - IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PfotOOUCTION CONSUMP'IION ZONE ------_ 1977 .... -..--.- 1989 1999 .-.. 1977 _---- .. _---._. 1989 1999 ZONE .-.-_.--.---_.---- lq77 1989 1999 ------------------ 1971 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 17 31 87 40 0 0 0 3 b 10 2 0 0 0 5 11 27 41 0 0 0 7 2~ 46 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 57 123 236 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 5 14 32 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 (I 0 0 6 0 0 0 2 3 9 45 0 0 0 12 20 39 7 0 0 0 6 11 19 46 1 0 0 79 134 275 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 474 1474 4405 2100 5211 12621 9 0 0 0 13 23 44 48 0 10000 1228 10 17247 18941 10 1902 5569 14850 5149 17068 34823 49 0 0 0 34 55 104 11 0 0 0 16 39 96 50 0 0 0 23 40 77 12 0 0 0 17 32 73 51 0 0 0 5 II 19 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 52 0 0 0 10 18 36 14 0 0 0 20 35 72 53 66 168 504 296 533 1152 15 0 0 0 3 5 10 54 0 <I 0 6 11 22 16 0 0 0 15 25 53 55 0 0 0 7 12 22 17 0 0 0 20 32 74 56 0 0 0 15 26 53 18 I) 0 0 8 15 32 57 0 0 0 11 18 36 19 162 295 882 1989 5011 11739 58 0 0 0 4 8 14 I 20 0 0 0 26 52 120 59 0 0 0 18 39 91 w 21 0 0 0 2 5 9 60 0 0 0 5 8 17 --.I 22 0 0 0 12 23 46 61 0 0 0 3 b 20 0 I 23 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 21 8 35 14 b7 62 63 0 1t 0 42 0 127 3 135 273 5 10 650 25 0 0 0 9 15 27 64 0 0 0 3 b 22 26 0 0 0 70 128 272 65 0 0 0 43 99 311 27 0 0 0 13 22 44 66 0 0 0 20 5~ l40 28 0 0 0 9 15 32 67 0 0 0 30 79 212 29 I) 0 0 25 40 74 68 0 320 393 66 203 602 30 0 589 1805 128 253 542 69 0 0 0 12 21> 53 31 0 0 0 17 29 55 70 0 0 0 11 23 60 32 0 0 0 13 22 41 71 0 0 0 12 23 46 33 0 0 0 22 35 63 72 344 23184 JB7J 2765 3418b 2933B 34 0 0 0 58 lOb 203 73 0 0 0 9 15 27 35 0 0 0 26 48 96 74 0 0 0 41 R5 33q 36 0 0 () 42 120 352 75 0 0 0 6 12 31 37 () 0 0 26 55 145 76 0 0 0 15 62 157 38 co 0 0 13 28 60 77 o 100000 153335 12 37 5781 3tJ (\ 0 (\ 61 139 339 TOTAL 2Q60 141641 lR1400 13671 82273 121400 II; i il ,. .. . .I ., .. ,. ., .. . •• Ik .. it • .. . 11., ,.. •• "·4 ... ... ..... ., ,.  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY • PRODUCTIUNS AND CO~SUMrTIONS By ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY • 36 • NON-fERRnU~ METALS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION ZONE -_ .. _---------- 1971 1989 .. - 1999 ----~--.-.----~--- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ._.---_ ..------.-. --- ...-.-.-.-.-.-- 1977 PRODUCTIoN 1989 1999 t 977 198!:! 1999 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 Q 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 0 V 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 46 0 22 0 44 0 0 (I (I 0 0 " 0 0 B 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 250 500 0 259 020 1106 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 542 1420 10 7 245 265 428 972 1762 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 70 0 0 (I 0 0 SI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Q 0 0 0 0 0 52 (} 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 11 19 32 15 0 (I 0 (I 0 0 54 0 I) 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 {\ 70 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 1436 4624 4927 250 515 870 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 w -..] 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 /) 0 0 (> 0 I--' 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 115 261 304 0 0 t) 63 0 0 0 2 4 6 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 1 2 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 I) I) 0 0 0 29 0 4196 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 3 2800 14065 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 (I 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 500 1270 2604 34 172 85(1 0 0 (I 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 (I 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 (I 0 0 0 0 0 76 (I 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 0 0 0 0 v 0 TOTAL 2076 13592 20161 1450 394~ 7800  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUOI - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 IONS) COMMODITY - 37 - VEHICLES AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTlON ZONE --.--._-----_.--.- 1977 1989 1999 -------.-_.------- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ------------_.-.-. 1977 1989 1999 -----------.------ 1917 1989 1999 1 0 0 () (\ I,) 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 41 0 0 " 0 (' 0 \} I') 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 () 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 315 550 8150 552 1019 1748 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 3500 0 0 0 0 10 252 500 810 904 1583 2758 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 SO 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 (J 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 0 16 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5S 56 " 0 I,) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 () 0 19 2 5 10 250 397 645 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 (,) 0 I 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 w 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 -...J 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 "" I 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 34 52 86 2S 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 6S 0 I) 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 () 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 0 (J 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 So 115 242 30 0 0 0 146 215 327 69 0 0 0 0 v 0 31 0 0 0 t) 0 (\ 70 0 0 32 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 72 0 9 0 0 20 " 0 30 0 0 626 0 1550 0 3513 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 () 0 0 0 )6 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 0 I) 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 I) 39 0 0 0 47 8t 139 TOTAl, 578 4575 9000 2609 501& 9457 .411 *_.<Ii ii <i ........ iii .... 11 ...................... .4 ..... .  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANbPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 tONS) COMMODITY - 38 - MACHINERY PRODUCTION CONSlIMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPfION ZONE -----~-----------. 1911 1999 1999 . _.... ------.----- 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ----_ ... _------.- . 1971 1989 1999 -----------._-_.-- 1911 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 5 14 15 40 0 0 I) 11 43 41 2 0 0 (I 3 8 10 41 0 0 0 7 29 29 3 (I 0 0 4 10 15 42 10 30 123 13 37 34 4 0 0 0 27 62 51 43 0 0 0 9 35 36 5 0 0 (I 1 19 17 44 0 0 0 4 to 9 6 0 0 0 10 25 24 45 0 0 0 CI 21 19 7 0 0 0 7 17 14 46 0 0 0 31 10 67 8 0 0 0 17 41 38 47 714 1173 4933 84Q 2815 3164 9 0 0 2368 12 29 26 48 0 0 0 26 1097 1717 10 323 1258 (I 1074 3377 3856 49 0 0 0 68 151 12P 11 0 0 0 45 143 168 50 0 0 0 16 37 34 12 0 0 0 17 43 46 51 0 0 0 11 25 24 13 0 0 0 11 25 24 52 0 0 0 15 31 34 14 0 0 0 45 107 103 53 0 0 0 145 349 351 15 0 0 0 17 39 34 54 (I 0 0 12 31 27 16 0 0 0 28 62 62 55 0 0 0 9 21 11 17 0 0 0 27 60 63 56 0 0 0 13 31 27 18 0 0 0 18 45 45 57 0 0 0 12 27 24 19 151 440 592 934 2662 2834 58 0 0 0 3 6 7 20 0 0 0 23 62 65 59 0 0 0 11 31 34 I 21 0 0 0 3 8 9 60 0 0 0 6 14 12 w 22 0 0 0 12 0 -.J 31 29 61 0 0 6 14 14 w 23 0 0 0 3 6 7 62 0 0 0 5 12 10 I 24 0 0 0 62 138 120 63 0 0 0 31 AS 93 25 0 0 0 14 31 27 64 0 0 0 4 10 19 26 0 0 0 52 128 125 65 0 0 0 Sq 190 267 27 0 0 0 22 48 46 66 0 0 0 14 48 60 28 {\ 0 0 5 12 10 61 0 0 0 18 211 341 29 0 0 0 14 31 26 68 0 0 0 145 597 824 30 0 0 0 219 579 517 69 0 0 0 11 33 29 31 0 0 0 15 35 29 70 0 0 0 10 29 34 32 (\ 0 0 12 21 24 71 0 0 0 12 31 29 33 0 0 0 16 3S 29 12 253 130 1184 1490 5b40 8344 34 0 0 0 29 70 63 73 0 0 () 10 23 19 35 0 0 0 12 21 2(, 14 0 0 0 69 190 356 36 0 0 0 21 81 110 15 0 () 0 13 37 39 37 0 0 0 15 43 53 16 0 0 0 7 39 46 39 U 0 0 Q 25 26 77 0 0 0 5 21 39 39 ') 0 0 :.!B 85 98 TOT.I\L 1451 4231 '1200 6148 20467 25342  BOLIVIA NATIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY - PRODUCTIONS AND CONSUMPTIONS BY ZONE (10 TONS) COMMODITY - 39 - MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURES PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION ZONE .-.---------_.- 1977 1989 .. - 1999 ---_._------------ 1977 1989 1999 ZONE ---------------.-- 1977 1989 1999 -----------.-.---- 1977 1989 1999 1 0 0 0 2 4 5 40 13 26 39 85 133 162 2 0 0 0 t 1 3 41 ~ 16 24 218 564 712 3 0 0 0 6 9 19 42 64 130 195 23 41 47 4 13 26 39 89 125 132 43 10 20 30 5 12 If> 5 0 0 0 22 35 40 44 16 30 45 29 42 48 6 4 8 12 56 88 104 45 I 2 3 1 1 t 7 42 80 120 34 49 54 46 36 70 105 16 23 27 8 36 70 105 28 42 48 47 1239 36BO 3727 1665 3U4 4913 9 12 24 36 4 6 7 48 2 4 6 3 178b 2617 10 3010 6000 9016 2575 5009 7174 49 473 940 1412 56 77 82 11 380 760 1142 391 770 1127 50 222 440 6bl 178 257 292 12 125 24 36 289 461 615 51 2 4 6 6 9 11 l3 51 100 150 5 8 8 52 5 10 1S 15 23 27 14 31 60 90 154 226 271 53 53 100 150 153 229 287 15 6 12 18 51 73 81 54 0 0 0 3 5 5 16 90 180 270 134 185 230 55 3 6 9 2 3 1 17 22 44 66 111 152 199 56 (I 0 () 20 29 33 18 20 40 60 37 58 72 57 3 6 9 15 20 23 19 1102 2200 3306 866 1526 2038 58 0 0 0 2 3 3 t 20 104 200 301 132 219 292 '59 0 0 0 23 41 56 w :H 0 0 0 1 1 3 60 4 8 12 11 15 17 --.J ~ 22 8 16 24 1 1 1 61 0 0 0 1 1 1 t 23 0 0 0 22 33 37 62 6 12 18 6 9 9 24 14 28 42 175 242 263 63 149 880 1052 167 280 38R 25 0 0 0 5 6 8 64 0 0 0 1 1 4 26 49 100 150 96 146 179 65 66 130 195 9 15 2P 27 0 0 0 7 9 11 66 46 90 135 33 70 112 28 0 0 0 5 8 8 67 67 130 195 38 8.2 129 29 41 80 120 24 32 35 68 521 1040 1563 525 lB~ 2315 30 432 860 1292 474 775 970 69 0 0 0 6 10 12 31 7 14 21 1 1 1 70 1 2 3 3 5 8 32 1 2 3 4 5 7 71 56 110 165 9 14 17 33 2 4 6 5 6 7 72 1616 3350 5034 1364 3760 4990 34 16 )0 45 76 115 129 73 57 110 11'15 29 40 lb5 35 3J 60 90 B 12 15 74 (; 12 18 32 55 til 36 0 0 0 7 17 28 75 '5 to 15 13 23 15 37 0 0 0 5 9 13 76 S 10 15 5 17 15 38 0 0 0 3 5 7 77 8 16 24 1 l 24 39 3 f. 9 e 15 21 TOTAL 10417 22422 31614 10681 22934 31794 4 l- i- .it • ,I; .. ;i . .. iIiO .. .. ,. . ,. .. ~ .. .. .... . ito j .. . . ... ,i .. . Ii. ...  APPENDIX 9A INTERNAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS  Appendix 9A INTERNAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS TABLES Number Page 9A-l Comparison of Synthetic Daily Internal 376 Movements by Truck Between 1977 and the 1989 Committed Network 9A-2 Comparison of Synthetic Daily Internal 377 Movements by Truck Between 1977 and the 1989 Test Network 9A-3 Comparison of Synthetic Daily Internal 378 Movements by Truck Between 1977 and the 1989 Recommended Network 9A-4 Generated Daily Truck Movements in the 379 1989 Test Network 9A-5 Generated Daily Truck Movements in the 380 1989 Recommended Network 9A-6 Comparison of Synthetic Internal Rail 381 Movements Between 1977 and the 1989 Committed Network 9A-7 Comparison of Synthetic Internal Rail 382 Movements Between 1977 and the 1989 Test Network 9A-8 Comparison of Synthetic Internal Rail 383 Movements Between 1977 and the 1989 Recommended Network 9A-9 Comparison of Synthetic River Movements 384 Between 1977 and the 1989 Networks 9A-IO Comparison of Synthetic Product Pipeline 385 Movements Between 1977 and 1989 Networks 9A-ll Comparison of Synthetic Bus Movements 386 Between 1977 and the 1989 Networks 9A-12 Comparison of Synthetic Rail Passenger Movements Between 1977 and the 1989 Networks 387 9A-13 Comparison of Synthetic Private Vehicle 388 Movements Between 1977 and the 1989 Networks -375-  Table 9A-l C(M)ARIsrn OF SYN'IHETIC DAILY IN'IERNAL MOVEMEN'IS BY TRDCK BE'IWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 cc:M-ITTI'ED NE'IWORK SMALL TRUCKS MEDIUM TRUCKS LARGE TRUCKS TOTAL TRUCKS CITY 1977 1989 1977 1989 1977 1989 197"1 1989 Ratio La Paz 212 396 430 776 422 734 1,064 1,906 1. 79 Oruro 82 224 160 424 230 690 472 1,339 2.83 Cochabamba 250 424 576 940 510 908 1,336 2,272 1. 70 t W· Santa Cruz 226 430 816 1,476 426 620 1,468 2,526 1. 72 -J 0'\ I Potosi 44 76 96 164 172 348 312 588 1.88 Sucre 26 42 84 108 214 208 324 358 1.10 Tarija 22 56 48 138 94 296 164 490 2.99 Total 862 1,648 2,210 4,026 2,068 3,804 5,140 9,478 1.34 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-2 ~ ! CXM?ARISOO OF SYN'IHETIC DAILY IN'IERNAL MJVEMEN'IS BY TRtCK BE'IWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 'lEST NE'IWORK I j f CITY SMALL TRUCKS 1977 1989 MEDIUM TRUCKS 1977 1989 LARGE TRUCKS 1977 1989 1977 TOTAL TRUCKS 1989 Ratio ; 1 i La Paz 212 410 430 778 422 694 1,064 1,882 1. 77 i ~ Oruro 82 254 160 468 230 716 472 1,438 3.05 f Cochabamba 250 394 576 868 510 764 1,336 2,026 1.52 ! , I Santa Cruz 226 412 816 1,434 426 698 1,468 2,544 1. 73 w --.J 44 96 290 172 422 312 862 2.76 , --.J Potos! 150 Sucre 26 50 84 112 214 168 324 330 1. 02 Tarija 22 76 48 166 94 238 164 480 2.93 Total 862 1,746 2,210 4,116 2,068 3,700 5,140 9,~62 1.86 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. • 'Ill • • • • ~ ~. ~ • • • • ~ • • ~ • ~ ~ • ~ • 4 ~ 4 i. • 4 • _ • i • •  Table 9A-3 a::MPARISCN OF SYN'I'HEl'IC DAILY IN'I'ERNAL M:>VEMENTS BY TRu::K BEIWEEN 1977 AND '!'HE 1989 REc:<:M1ENJ)ED NEIWORK SMALL TRUCKS MEDIUM TRUCKS LARGE TRUCKS TOTAL TRUCKS CITY 1977 1989 1977 19~9 1977 1989 1977 1989 R.Cl.f.-io --" La Paz 212 432 430 826 422 684 1,064 1,942 1.83 Oruro 82 242 160 448 230 632 472 1,322 2.80 Cochabamba 250 388 576 823 510 722 1,336 1,933 1. 45 Santa Cruz 226 440 816 1,504 426 666 1,468 2,610 1. 78 I w Potosi 44 94 96 202 172 364 312 660 2.12 ......J ex> I Sucre 26 40 84 96 214 190 324 326 1.01 Tarija 22 52 48 130 94 284 164 466 2.84 Total 862 1,688 2,210 4,029 2,068 3,542 5,140 9,259 1.80 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-4 GENERATED DAILY TRUCK MOVEMENTS IN THE 1989 TEST NETWORK SMALL TRUCKS MEDIUM TRUCKS LARGE TRUCKS TOTAL Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of CITY Number Normal Number Normal Number Normal Number Normal La Paz 14 3.4 24 3.1 28 4.0 66 3.5 Oruro 28 11.0 52 11.1 86 12.0 166 11.5 I Cochabamba 0 0.0 2 0.2 10 1.3 12 0.6 w -..J \0 I Santa Cruz 18 4.4 48 3.3 56 8.0 122 4.8 Potosi 44 29.3 86 29.7 100 23.7 230 26.7 Sucre 8 16.0 18 16.1 12 7.1 38 11.5 Tarija 16 21.1 34 20.5 58 24.4 108 22.5 Total 128 7.3 264 6.4 350 9.5 742 7.8 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. ~ ri w ii • ~ w ~ ~ i ~ ~ i • ~ • •• • ~ • 4 • j t • • 4 & 4 • '" Ii .. ..  Table 9A-5 GENERATED DAILY TRUCK MOVEMENTS IN THE 1989 RECOMMENDED NETWORK SMALL TRUCKS MEDIUM TRUCKS LARGE TRUCKS TOTAL Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of CITY Number Normal Number Normal Number Normal Number Normal La Paz 34 7.9 62 7.5 59 8.6 155 8.0 Oruro 33 13.6 64 14.3 94 14.9 191 14.5 I Cochabamba 40 10.3 74 9.0 59 8.2 173 9.0 w co 0 I Santa Cruz 12 2.7 40 2.7 44 6.6 96 3.7 Potos! 24 25.5 46 22.8 66 18.1 136 20.6 Sucre 2 5.0 6 6.3 14 7.4 22 6.8 Tarija 4 7.7 10 7.7 20 7.0 34 7.3 Total 149 8.8 302 7.5 356 10.1 807 8.7 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-6 COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC INTERNAL RAIL MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE i 1989 COMMITTED NETWORK I NETWORK ANNUAL TONNAGE SECTION LINK USED 1977 1989 RATIO ~. La Paz - Oruro 2002-2006 44,350 372,380 8.40 Oruro - R!o Mulato 2024-2027 58,990 364,500 6.18 R!o Mulato - Uyni 2028-2035 49,470 256,810 5.19 I Uyuni - Villaz6n 2024-2041 20,170 135,880 6.74 w 00 I--' Oruro - Cochabamba 2009-2010 49,850 444,710 8.92 I R!o Mulato - Potos! 2028-2029 16,190 282,450 17.45 Potos! - Sucre 2031-2044 10,260 161,910 15.78 Santa Cruz - Corumb~ 2101-2111 19,710 576,820 29.27 Santa Cruz - Yacuiba 2101-2105 39,060 221,240 5.66 Santa Cruz - R!o Grande(l} 2101-2100 32,900 210,180 6.39 (1) In 1977 this line only extended as far as Santa Rosa. SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. • j • j • • • ~ • ~ i ..... t.;ii ..... ,ill •• li-ill *'.~ "'''' . iII.,. •• iII t,;jI  Table 9A- i COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC INTERNAL RAIL MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 TEST NETWORK NETWORK ANNUAL TONNAGE SECTION LINK USED 1989 RATIO La Paz - Oruro • 2002-2006 44,350 603,720 13.61 Oruro - R!o Mulato 2024-2027 58,990 317,920 5.39 R!o Mulato - Uyuni 2028-2035 49,470 278,900 5~64 Uyuni - Villaz6n 2040-2041 20,170 126,020 6.25 I Oruro - Cochabamba 2009-2010 48,850 656,030 13.43 w co R!o Mulato - Potos! 2028-2029 16,130 169,580 10!,5l IV I 136,490 Potosi - Sucre 2031-2044 10,260 13,30 Santa Cruz - Corumba 2101-2111 19,710 717,110 36.38 Santa Cruz - Yacuiba 2101-2105 39,060 228,380 5,85 Santa Cruz - R!o Grande(l) 2101-2100 32,900 216,780 6.59 Aiquile - Mataral(2) 2022-2047 762,750 Sucre - Mataral(2) 2046-2047 304,050 Mataral - Santa cruz(2) 2047-2116 887,280 R!o Grande - Trinidad(2) 2114-2115 52,720 (1) In 1977 this line only extended as far as Santa Rosa. (2) New line section introduced into the 1989 Test Network. SOURCE: Derived from model result by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-8 ·COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC INTERNAL RAIL MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE , 1989 RECOMMENDED NETWORK I i SECTION NETWORK LINK USED ANNUAL TONNAGE 1977 1989 RATIO La Paz-Oruro 2002-2006 44,350 305,730 6.89 Oruro-R!o Mulato 2024-2027 58,990 296,450 5.03 R!o Mu1ato-uyuni 2028-2035 49,470 207,340 4.19 Uyuni-Vi11az6n 2024-2041 20,170 106,630 5.29 Oruro-Cochabamba 2009-2010 48,850 346,420 7.09 I W R!o Mulato-Potos! 2028-2029 16,130 201,710 12.51 OJ w potosi-Sucre 2031-2044 10,260 100,820 9.83 I Santa Cruz-Corurnb~ 2101-2111 19,710 423,240 21.47 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 2101-2105 39,060 206,880 5.30 santa Cruz-Rio Grande (1) 2101-2100 32,900 135,590 4.12 Aiquile-Mataral (2) 2022-2047 Sucre-Mataral (2) 2046-2047 Mataral-Santa Cruz (2) 2047-2116 R!o Grande-Trinidad (2) 2114-2115 (1) In 1977 this line only extended as far as Santa Rosa. (2) New line section introduced into the 1989 Test Network. SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. Iji " " ~ 4 • ~ • ~ ~ 4 • ~ • • • ~ + • ~ • • ~ ~ ~ * ~ ~  Table 9A-9 COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC RIVER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 NETWORKS ANNtIAL FI.J:ltV 1989~ED NE'IWORK 1977 1989 c:cM-1I'ITED NE'IWORK NE'IWORK 1989 TEST NE'IWORK SEX:TICN LINK USED Tons Tons Ratio over 1977 Tons Ratio over 1977 Tons Ratio over 1977 Puerto Villarroel-Trinidad 2228-2230 67,410 79,830 1.18 44,180 0.66 17,420 0.20 Trinidad-Guayaramerm 2216-2214 41,280 69,850 1.69 22,180 0.54 24,790 0.60 Santa Rcsa-Magdalena 2212-2221 21,780 38,630 1.77 8,740 0.40 3,670 0.12 I LV 00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .t>o I SOURCE: Derived fran Il'Ddel results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-lO COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC PRODUCT PIPELINE MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 NETWORKS ANNUAL FLOW 1977 -ffg-g-COMMITTED NETWORK 1989 TEST NETWORK 1989 RECXM'1ENDED ~ SECTION Tons Tons Ratio over 1977 Tons Ratio over 1977 Tons Ratio over 1977 Cochabamba-Oruro 385,550 767,590 1. 99 769,470 2.00 775,162 2.01 Oruro-La Paz 257,980 524,380 2.03 523,970 2.03 543,640 2.10 Sucre-Potosi 52,850 80,440 1. 52 82,730 1. 57 83,928 1.59 I w santa Cruz-Yacuiba 143,560 147,020 146,570 co U'1 I Villamontes-Tarija 58,330 santa Cruz-Trinidad 38,730 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. j. ill ",'Ii i". '!Ii it .. .. .ii .. '" ... . Of. ij iI .. ... .. .. ;Ii; Iii .'" • iii ,i 4} ir< ...  Table 9A-ll COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC BUS MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 NETWORKS INTERNAL BUS MOVEMENTS PER DAY 1977 1989 COMMITTED NETWORK 1989 TEST NETWORK CITY Vehicles Vehicles Ratio over 1977 Vehicles Ratio over 1977 La Paz 664 688 1.04 716 1. 08 Oruro 238 252 1. 06 282 1.18 Cochabmaba 606 642 1.06 620 1. 02 I w co Santa Cruz 158 236 1.49 216 1. 37 0'\ I Potos! 70 98 1.40 158 2.26 Sucre 44 36 0.82 52 1.18 Tarija 30 24 0.80 38 1.27 Total 1,810 1,976 1.09 2,082 1.15 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  Table 9A-12 COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC RAIL PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 NETWORKS INTERNAL PASSENGER MOVEMENTS PER YEAR 1977 1989 CmfMITTED NETWORK I989 TEST NETWORK Passenger Passensers Ratio over 1977 Passen9:ers Ratio over 1977 La Paz - Oruro 85,410 191,260 2.24 300,030 3.51 Oruro - R!o Mulato 44,530 345,290 7.75 181,040 4.07 R!o Mulato - Uyuni 23,360 98,550 4.22 70,810 3.03 Uyuni -.Villaz6n 18,980 56,210 2.96 27,740 1.46 Oruro - Cochabamba 107,310 559,180 5.21 782,560 7.29 I w R!o Mulato - Potosi 14,600 123,370 8.45 42,340 2.90 <Xl -....J I Potos! - Sucre 15,330 35,040 2.29 25,550 1. 67 Santa Cruz Corumb~ 6,570 50,370 7.67 169,360 25.78 Santa Cruz - Yacuiba 27,740 152,570 5.50 232,870 8.39 Cochabamba - Mataral 929,290 Sucre - Mataral 211,700 Mataral - Santa Cruz 941,700 Santa Cruz - Trinidad 87,600 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates. .,. 4 i ~ • ~ I ~ • 4 • • ~ ~ ~ ~ • j ~ ~ • ~ ~ ~ ~ j • 4 • ~ .. '"  Table 9A-l3 COMPARISON OF SYNTHETIC PRIVATE VEHICLE MOVEMENTS BETWEEN 1977 AND THE 1989 NETWORKS INTERNAL VEHICLE MOVEMENTS PER DAY 1977 1989 COMMITTED NETWORK 1989 TEST NETWORK CITY . Vehicles Venicles Ratio over 1977 Vehicles Ratio over 1977 La Paz 476 576 1.21 662 1.39 Oruro 282 390 1. 38 522 1.85 Cochabamba 828 1,170 1.41 1,146 1. 38 I w Santa Cruz 192 244 1.27 272 1.42 00 00 I Potos! 108 128 1.19 324 3.00 Sucre 104 94 0.90 118 1.13 Tarija 116 108 0.93 160 1. 38 Total 2,106 2,710 1.29 3,204 1.52 SOURCE: Derived from model results by Wilbur Smith and Associates.  APPENDIX 98 FORECASTS OF FOREIGN TRADE MOVEMENTS 8Y MODE  Appendix 9B FORECASTS OF FOREIGN TRADE MOVEMENTS BY MODE TABLES Page 9B-1 Bolivia's Foreign Trade Flows 1989 by Mode 390 and Entry/Exit Point, without Interconnection 9B-2 Bolivia's Foreign Trade Flows 1999 by Mode 391 and Entry/Exit Point, without Interconnection 9B-3 Bolivia's Foreign Trade Flows 1989 by Mode 392 and Entry/Exit Point, with Interconnection 9B-4 Bolivia's Foreign Trade Flows 1999 by Mode 393 and Entry/Exit Point, with Interconnection -389-  Table 9B-1 'OLIVIA'S FOREIGN TRADE FLOWS 1989 BY MODE AND EXTRY!EXIT POINT (Without rail interconnection in 1,000 tons) PI1ICE OF Em'RY! w)()D & BUILDING VEHICLES AND EXIT AND MJDE 1GRIct1LTtJPAL MlNEFALS HYD~S FOOD TEXTILES PAPER CHEMICALS SUPPLIES METAIS MANUFAC"lUmS '.tUrAL(1) Guayararrer1':n! Cobija - Truck 64.9 0.5 3.3 3.8 72.5 Avaroa - Rail 81.4 105.1 19.7 49.5 5.5 10.6 27.6 11.2 14.5 37.4 362.5 Olaraiia - Rail 18.6 10.5 7.0 19.8 9.8 6.6 7.9 3.6 31.6 15.7 131.1 Tarr.bo Qt1enado-T:ruck 49.5 10.9 5.4 21.5 7.9 4.0 10.5 1.1 11.6 6.5 128.9 Quijarro - Rail 66.7 8.0 0.3 41.0 8.1 102.2 10.7 59.2 52.2 107.6 456.0 I - Water 746.5 74f.5 w \.0 Yacui.ba - Rail 74.2 1.8 0.3" 62.9 1.8 29.6 4.5 9.5 17.0 8.2 209.8 0 I 50.8 Yacu:1.ba - Truck 22.2 0.1 4.3 0.3 20.0 0.3 0.1 2.7 0.8 Guaqui - Water 28.4 9.5 5.3 0.8 0.1 19.1 6.4 25.6 17.0 112.2 Be:rnejo - Truck 2.3 96.2 6.9 6.0 0.2 2.1 113.7 Villaz6n - Rail 58.4 18.0 1.2 11.1 0.7 2.9 1.7 24.4 10.6 5.4 134.4 Villaz6n - Truck 3.0 4.9 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 10.4 ~saguadero - Truck 65.1 6.7 25.3 2.9 1.1 6.0 2.7 12.6 10.2 132.6 Kasani - Truck 5.1 2.1 1.1 8.3 Puerto Acosta-Truck 4.9 1.1 6.0 ~guaya - Water 22.2 22.2 '!UrAL 534.7 192.8 33.9 352.3 37.8 180.6 98.3 124.2 928.3 215.0 2,697.9 " (1) Excludes gas, crude oil, refined hydrocarbons by pipeline, and air IOClVE!tl€l'lts. S<Ll'r:E: Bolivia National Transport study.  Table 9B-2 BOLIVIA'S FOREIGN'TRADE FLOWS 1999 BY MODE AND ll:NTRY/EXIT. POINT (Wi thou't!rail tinterconneotJion' in' 1','000 'tons) PUCE OF F:t:'rJF{/ t\OOD Ct BUILDING VEHICIES- AND EXIT M'O IDlE AGRICUL'I'IJRAL MINEJ.W:.S HYDRCC:t\RBCNS FCXJD TEXTILES PAPER CHEMICALS SUPPLIFS METAIS MANUFAC'l.'URES '.l'OrAL(1) Guayararrer1n! Cobija - Truck 48.1 -' 5.5 0.5 9.3 1.7 0.3 8.0 28.2 101.6 Avaroa - Rail 139.9 229~6 2.'2 119.3 0.7 8.1 19.8 2.0 77.7 73.0 672.3 Charaiia -Rail 85.5 19,5, 12.~ 24.3 6.7 14.7 9.0 1.9 45.3 33.4 253.1 Tambo Quana.~ 60.,4 17,.5, 1,~.3 141.4 8.5 2.2 12.8 8.7 10.4, 32.7 213.9 Quijarro - Rail 244.9 8.7 2.4 91.1 41.0 113.3 13.4 48.2 65.0 100.3 728.3 I w - Water -, - 727.9 727.9 ~ Yacuiba - Rail 135.3 4.7. 1.7 ~5.8 ,30.9 2.1 7.4 21.2 10.5 249.6 I . Yacuiba - Truck 50.2 0.4 0.1 ' 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 3.7 59.0 Guaqui - Water 26.4 46.3 15.8 7.9 3.0 10.8 4.8 39.4 84.7 239.1 Bermejo - Truck 65.6 ;76.1 0.6 9.6 18.9 0.2 5.2 176.2 Villaz6n - Rall 56.9 13.6 8.7 33.9 0.1 5.4 1.9 2.2 15.0 19.6 157.3 Villaz6n - Truck 42.7 1.2 0.6 . 9.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 3.5 59.3 Desaguadero - Tnlck 65.7 18.0 66 .• 5 1.4 3.5 22.2 4.0 17.4 57.5 256.2 Kasani - Truck 1.1 12.3 3.6 17.0 Puerto Acosta-Truck 1.1 12.2 13.3 Chaguaya - Water 30.0 30.0 'roI'AL 1,023.8 389.5 -- 47.8 546.2 66.8 192.5 107.8 98.7 1,028.7 452.3 3,954.1 (1) Excludes gas, crude oil, refined hydrocarbons by pipeline, and air m::>VeInents. sctJFCE: Bolivia National Transport Study. ,. 4 • t • f • • 1Jr. l!I". 1l1ll!i!"1i II! !II !I!i • . - .. ~ . "l!i iI1 IS II! !II " ;i 'It 1lII  Table 9B-3 BOLIVIA'S FOREIGN TRADE FLOWS 1989 BY MODE AND ENTRY/EXIT POINT (With rail interconnection in 1,000 tons) PI..I\CE OF ENl'RY/ ~>o:)D & BUIIDING VEHICLES lIND EXIT AND M:>DE AGRICUL'IURAL MINERl\LS HYDFlOCARBONS FOOD TEXTILES PAPER CHEMICALS SUPPLIES METALS ~ 'IOI'AL(1) ~ ,-' ,,, 1 . ..'1 Guayararrerfn/ Cobija - Truck 64.9 0.5 3.3 3.8 72.5 " Avaroa - Rail 102.3 105.2 19.7 86.4 9.1 43.5 29.8 11.2 24~7 51.6 48'3.5 • 1 ;1 , Charaiia - Rail 35.6 10.9 7.0 46.7 13.2 28.8 10.5 3.8 39.1 26.8 ' 222.4 , Tambo~ 49.5 10.9 5.4 21.5 ,, 7.9 4.0 " 10.5 1.1 11.6 '60S i2g.9 ' , Quijarro - Rail 29.0 7.4 0.3 12.2 2.8 55.9 8.0 59.0 37~7 81.6 ' 293.9 - Water I : 746~5 ,746.5 I , ~ Yacui.ba - Rail 74.1 1.8 0.3 27.0 20.6 2.4 9.5 13.4 8.5 157.6 tv i I Yacuiba - Truck 22.2 0.1 4.3 0.3 20.0 0.3 0~1 2.7 'O.S 50.8 I I- Guaqui - Water 28.4 9.5 5.3 0.8 0.1 19.1 6.4 25.6 l'L6 112.2 I I Bemejo - Truck 2.3 96.2 6.9 , 6.0 0.2 i.1 113.7 ,- Villaz6n - Pail 58.3 18.1 1.2 12.0 0.8 3.1 I 1.7 24.4 11.0 '5.8 ' 136.4 .' I Villaz6n - Truck 3.0 4.9 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 10.4 I DesaguaClero - Truck 65.1 6.7 25.3 2.9 1.1 6.0 2.7 12.6, 10.i i32.6 - ' Kasani - Truck 5.1 2.1 1.1 8.3 I Puerto Acosta-Truck 4.9 1.1 6.0 - Water 22.2 22.2 -- 'IUI'AL 534.7 192.8 33.9 352.3 37.8 180.6 98.3 124.2 928.3 215.0 2,697.9 (1) EY..cludes gas, crude oil, refined hydrocarbons by pipeline, and air movanents. SC(J'RCE: Bolivia National TransIXlrt Study.  Table 9B-4 BOLIVIA'S FOREIGN TRADE FLOWS 1999 BY MODE AND ENTRY/EXIT POINT (With rail interconnection in 1,000 tons) I Ill' j , . ! rill I' II' f PIlICE OF ENTRY/ ' ! j r,mD & BUILDING ru ' VEHICLES AND I "(1) EXIT AND IDDE AGRIOJI.:ruRE MINERAIS ~S F'CX)D TEXTILES PAPER CHEMICALS SUPPLIES METAlS M1INUFACTURES rorAL Guayaranerfu/ ' .' Cobija - Truck 48.1 5.5 0.5 9.3 1.7 0.3 8.0 28.:2 101.6 I" ' Avaroa - Rail 242.9 229.8 2.3 172.8 4.0 35.0 23.6 2.0 85.9 96.5 894.8 ., .' ~aiia - Rail 168.4 23.3 13.2 63.1 10.6 35.5 14.4, 2.1 50.2 47.1 427.9 I i I I . Tambo Quanado-'I'rudc 60.4 17.5 19.3 41.4 8.5 2.2 12.8, 8.7 10.4 32.7 213.9 Il i, " ' QJi.jarro - Rail 46.3 5.2 1.7 11.0 33.8 63.8 4.9 48.0 57.5 61.3 333.5 I - Water 727.9 727.9 w I ~ Yacuiba - Rail 144.2 4.2 1.7 21.2 32.4 1.2 7.4 15.7 11.1 239.1 f \ ~ .1 I Yacuiba - Truck 50.2 0.4 0.1 2.9 1.1 '' 0.4' " 0.2 3.7 59.0 , I, 'I II ' Guaqui - Water 26.4 46.3 15.8 7.'9 3.0 10.8 4.8 39.4 84.7 239.1 I I I Bex:mejo - Truck 65.6 76.1 0.6 9.6 18.9 0.2 5.2 176.2 I , i I " Vil1az6n - Rail 60.7 13.6 8.9 36.3 0.1 5.7 2.1 2.2 14.9 20.8 165.3 I 1 • " I Villaz6n - Truck 42.7 1.2 0.6 9.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 3.5, 59.3 I" I' , Desaguadero-'I'ruck 65.7 18.0 66.5 1.4 3.5 22.2 4.0 17.4 57.5 256.2 Kasani - Truck 1.1 12.3 3.6 17.0 Puerto 1Icosta-Truck 1.1 12.2 13.3 Olaguaya - ~later 30.0 30.0 'ItriliL 1,023.8 389.5 47.8 546.2 -, 66.8 192.5 107.8 -~ 98.7 1,028.7 ~ 452.3 3,954.1 {1} Exclu:1es gas, crude oil, refined hydrocarbons by pipeline, and air novements. SO!.TRCE: Bolivia National Transport Study. lit I ~ . .t I • ~: . II Ill! i!! • II; II '" II if: '\!II " II .. .. 'I !II! 'It " ~ • ,.  APPENDIX 9C POTENTIAL TRANSIT TRAFFIC THROUGH BOLIVIA  Appendix 9C POTENTIAL TRANSIT TRAFFIC THROUGH BOLIVIA CONTENTS Potential Transit Routes Affecting Bolivia 395 Past Trends in Trade 395 Projected Trade Flows 396 Peru-Brazil 396 Brazil-Chile 396 Brazil-Rest of the World 400 Conclusion 400 TABLES Number Pase 9C-l Brazil: Imports and Exports from and to Peru 397 by Weight 9C-2 Value of Imports and Exports:Brazil to Peru 398 9c-3 Estimated Future Trade: Peru/Brazil 399 9C-4 Estimated Future Traffic on Rail Connection: 401 Chile/BraZil 1989 403 9C-S Predicted Traffic on Rail Connection 1989 404 9C-6 Predicted Traffic on Rail Connection 1989, with more Conservative Growth Rates -394-  POTENTIAL TRANSIT TRAFFIC THROUGH BOLIVIA The construction of the rail interconnection between Santa Cruz and Cochabamba would provide the possibility of direct rail travel between Peru and Chile, and Brazil. Traffic on the rail connection, if built, will be of three types - internal to internal movements, internal to external movements and external to external movements. This Appendix sets out to estimate the volume involved in this final category of movement. Potential Transit Routes Affectinq Bolivia Bolivia shares a border with five countries, namely Peru, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. There is thus the pos- sibility of transit traffic between all of these countries af- fecting Bolivia. However, in fact many share cornmon borders - the only flows which need to cross Bolivia in reality are those between Peru/Chile and Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. The flows between Peru/Chile and Paraguay/Argentina do not affect the rail connection, using other parts of the existing network. Thus the problem of estimating future flows resolves itself into one of predicting trade between Peru and northern Chile and Brazil. Surprisingly, although they share a frontier, there is some transit traffic through Bolivia between Chile and Argentina - such traffic however does not affect the rail connection and is difficult to explain. Past Trends in Trade In the absence of finnforecasts of governmental intentions regarding future policy from the countries concerned, the best course of action is to examine the historical experience and assume no major change, unless there is reason to expect other- wise. Data is available for the years 1971-1979 for trade flows between Brazil and Peru,and for a single year for flows between Brazil and Chile. In addition some information was obtained from mining concerns in northern Chile and southern Peru relating to their present trade with Brazil and future plans. -395-  The statistics (Table9C-l} show that the volume of trade between Peru and Brazil grew steadily during the early 1970's, reaching a peak in 1976. This was followed by a marked fall in trade as both countries entered a period of economic reces- sion and financial crisis, experiencing high inflation and poor productivity. A more detailed analysis of the figures reveals considerable fluctuation from year to year in the direction of trade and in ~articular commodities - for instance Brazil is it an exporter of maize in years when she has a surplus, Peru exported large quantities of petroleum products in some years and not in others. These factors combine to make the task of forecasting future trade movements a formidable one, with the results subject to great uncertainty. Projected Trade Flows In the projections that follow, the assumption has been made that trade patterns will follow past trends, and that trade between the countries will grow at the same level of the leading partner, in this case Brazil. This is a grossly simplify- inq assumption, but in the absence of further data it is the best that can be made. Peru-Brazil The historical pattern has been that imports to Brazil from Peru have been, on average, 0.2 percent of Brazil's total iIrports: they have grown at roughly the same rate as imports as a whole (in value). Exports have similarly been fairly constant as a percentage in value over the past 10 years (~le 9C-2). Assuming that the value to weight ratio of imports and exports remains the same in future years, and excluding petroleum sales from Peru to Brazil (which would be transported by ships, not rail) the future volumes of trade using the route through Bolivia and thus the rail connection, are shown in Table 9C-3. The assunption here is that the economy of Brazil will expand at a rate of 7 percent p. a. to 1987 and then increase its rate of growth to 9 percent p.a. to 1999 (as it frees itself from the constraints at present imposed by the lack of domestic energy supplies) (1). Thus trade with Peru grows at these identical rates, overall. (The Peruvian economy is expected to grow at approxinately 5 percent p.a. over the period 1980-1990). Brazil-Chile Once again the major partner is Brazil, therefore the same rates of qrowth will be applied. The problem in this case,lies (l)This assumption may be optimistic: Brazilian GNP has grown at roughly 7 percent p.a. for the last 5 years. However, this year growth is expected to slow to 6 percent with a very poor last quarter of the year expected and unless inflation is controlled growth may continue to decline in 1981. II! -396- " Table 9C-l BRAZIL: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS FROM AND TO PERU BY WEIGHT (tons) YEAR EXPORTS IMPORTS TOTAL TRADE 1971 13,201 26,270 39,471 1972 54,659 23,261 77,920 1973 64,146 25,880 90,026 1974 106,404 13,120 119,524 1975 116,910 260,460 (29,360) (2) 377,370 1976 249,658 (125, 057) (3) 433,280 (22,580) (2) 682,938 1977 71,043 107,260 (43,460) (2) 178,303 1978 31,134 45,470 76,604 1979 46,400(1) 47,180 (1) 93,580 NOTES: {l)Figure based on 6 month estimate. (2)Figure in brackets is volume without petroleum sales. (3)Figure in brackets is volume without cereal sales . .~: Comercio Exterior Do Brasil 1978; Ministerio da Fazenda, Torno 1- Comercio Exterior 1978; Banco Do Brasil S.A. -397-  Table 9C-2 VALUE OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: BRAZIL TO PERU YEAR IMPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS EXPORTS TOTAL EXPORTS (US dollars) (percent) (US dollars) (}?ercent) ',1970 606,000 0.2 1,048,000 0.4 1971 739,000 0.2 893,000 0.3 1972 791,000 0.2 944,000 0.3 1973 1,019,000 0.2 1,049,000 0.2 1974 1,531,000 0.3 1,520,000 0.2 1975 2,551,000 0.3 1,292,000 0.2 1976 2,073,000 0 .. 2 1,265,000 0.1 1977 1,911,000 0.2 1,603,000 0.2 1978 1,960,000 0.2 1,949,000 0.2 1979(1}1,481,000 0.1 3,231,900 0.2 (1) Estimated from 6 month value. SOURCE: Grupo Andino Comercio con Brasil 1970-1979. -398-  Table 9C-3 ESTIMATED FUTURE TRADE: PERU/BRAZIL (tons) YEAR BRAZIL EXPORTS BRAZIL IMPORTS 1978 31,134 45,470 1989 68,005 99,319 NOTE: Assumes 7 percent growth in trade to 1987; 8 percent thereafter. -399- in deciding what percentage of Chilean/Brazilian trade will pass throuqh Bolivia. The main centers of production of the two contries are in Sao Paulo and Santiago: the route between them does not affect Bolivia. The traffic which will make use of the rail connection will be that between the mining region of northern Chile and Brazil; this traffic is only a small per- centage of total trade between the two countries, though im- portant in terms of tonnage, since a large part is made up of metal movements. The original movement between Sao Paulo and northern Chile used to take 30 days by boat; now,however,a change to using rail and road through Bolivia is taking place. The traffic cost is much the same but the time is halved to an average of 15 days. This traffic will undoubtedly use the connection should it be built. It is assumed in Table9C-4that the major movement will be of copper from Chile to Brazil and that 75 percent of Chilean copper ~ production for the Brazilian market comes from the northern region. This trade is assumed to grow at the same rate as the rest of the Brazilian economy, namely 7 percent to 1987 and 9 percent thereafter. Brazil-Rest of the World It has been suggested that the large volume of trade bet- ween Brazil and countries of the Pacific region may find it desirable to utilize the rail connection. This particularly relates to trade with Japan which was the source of 438,518 'II tons of imports in 1978, and which took 22,089,256 tons bf exports in the same year. However, the economics ot shipping are such that there is little or no benefit to be gained in shortening the distance the cargo travels by boat relative to that travelled overland. Ocean shipping costs are more sensitive to fixed costs than variable, and there is no consistent relationship between distance and cost per ton carried. Thus it is most unlikely that the Brazilian export trade with Japan will use the rail connection: they will use the overland route to the nearest port (in most cases Santos) as they do at present. The increased rail cost and uncertainty involved in traversing three countries to reach a Pacific port would outweigh any decrease in shipping costs. Conclusion The result of this, admittedly general, analysis is that the total tonnage of transit traffic that can be expected to use ~ rail connection is of the order of 392,000 tons -400-  Table 9C-4 ES'I'IMATED Ft1I'URE TRAFFIC CN RAIL a:::NNECI'ICN: rnILE/BRAZIL 1989 (tons) EXPORl' VOIa1E 'lUI'AL TOTAL IMPORl'S '1'OTAL IMPORl'S VOLtME USING RAIL EXPORl'S TO CN FAIL VOWME ON YEAR FOCM CHILE COPPER roNNECI'ICN W-E (2) CHILE a:::NNECTICN (3) RAIL a::NNECI'ICN 1978 393,474 121,052 119,430 1989 (1) 698,855 264,411 198,308 260,868 26,087 224,395 I oJ:>. o OOTE: {1} AsS'I..I[lES 7 percent growth to 1987, 9 percent thereafter. ...... I (2) AsS'l..I[lES 65 }?ercent of Cllilean Copper IrrPorts to Brazil originate in northern Chile (3) Assurres 10 }?ercent of Brazilian exports to Chile destined for northern Ch.:Ue. in 1989. As has been pointed out this figure depends upon key assumptions regarding the likely continuation of past patterns of trade and the future pattern of growth of the economies in- volved (See Table 9C-S). Table 9C-6 shows the impact upon flows of a lowering of the assumed Brazilian growth rate (which is the critical element). Is should be pointed out that this estimated volume does not include any generation effect induced by the reduction in transport costs brought about by construction of the link. However such an effect is not thought to be very significant: transport between the three main areas of production/consump- tion is already feasible and economic using existing infrastruc ture. The change in costs induced by the rail connection for - a complete trip Sao Paulo-Lima; for example. is of the order of 10 percent. Thus, at the ITOst, the volurre estinated in Table 9C-S could be raised 10 percent to allow for generated traffic. In view of the quality of service element at present offered by the railroads this estimate may be on the generous side. 'f -402-  Table 9C-5 PREDICTED TRAFFIC ON RAIL CONNECTION 1989 (tons) DIRECTION OF TRAFFIC BRAZIL-CHILE BRAZIL-PERU TOTAL VOLUME East-West 26,087 68,005 94,092 West-East 198,308 99,319 297,627 Total Volume 224,395 167,324 391,719 -403-  '!able 9C-6 PREDICTED - -TRAFFIC ON RAIL CONNECTION 1989 (1) (tons) DIRECTION OF TRAFFIC BRAZIL-CHILE BRAZIL-PERU TOTAL VOLUME East:-W'.es_t 21,212 53.,300 76,512 West-East 161,251 80,760 242,011 Total Volume 182,463 136,060 318,523 (ll Assumes conservative growth rates: Brazilian GNP grows 5 percent p.a. to 1987, 7 percent 1987-1989. -404-  APPENDIX lOA LIST OF CANDIDATE PROJECTS  Appendix lOA LIST OF CANDIDATE PROJECTS CONTENTS Rail Projects 406 Road Projects 407 Air Projects 410 River Projects 411 Miscellaneous Projects 411 FIGURES Follows Page 10A-l New Rail Candidate Projects 406 10A-2 Candidate Road Projects 407 10A-3 Candidate Airfield Improvement Projects 410 10A-4 Candidate River Projects 411 lOA-5 Miscellaneous Candidate Projects 411 "'405-  CANDIDATE PROJECTS This Appendix lists and numbers the candidate projects evaluated for each mode. Project numbering was carried out under the following general scheme: Rail Projects 100-199 River Projects 200-299 Lake Projects 300-399 Pipeline Projects 400-499 Air Projects 500-599 Road Projects 600-799 Rail Projects New Lines - 100 Aiquile-Mataral (Figure 10A-1) 101 Mataral-Santa Cruz 102 Rio Grande-Trinidad 103 Tarabuco-Zud~fiez 104 Zud~fiez-Vallegrande-Mataral 105 Zud~fiez-Cuevo (near Boyuibe) 106 Motacucito-Mutun 107 Mutun-Puerto Busch 108 Balcarce-Tarija 109 Tarija- El Palmar 110 La Paz- Rurrenabaque 111 Guaqui-Desaguadero 112 New alignment in Oruro-Cochabamba section (1) 113 New alignment in Santa Cruz-Corumb~ section (1)' entirely in neighboring 114 Desaguadero-Puno (Peru) countries but essential 115 Bermejo-Or~n(Argentina) to study in considering alternatives in these corridors. 116 Cochabamba-Yapacani 117 Camiri Branch Line Rehabilitation - 120 La Paz-El Alto 123 Oruro-Machachamarca 124 Machacamarca-Unicia 125 Machacamarca-Rio Mulato 126 Rio Mulato-Uyuni 127 Uyuni-Atocha 128 Atocha-Villaz6n (1) As proposed by recent Japanese Mission. -406-  129 Viacha-Charana '11 130 Uyuni-Avarea (fermerly Ollague) 131 Orure-Cechabamba (apart frem preject 112) 132 Cechabamba-Aiquile 133 Rio. Mulate-Petes1 134 Petes1-Sucre 135 Viacha-Guaqui 136 Santa Cruz-Cerumb~ (apart frem project 113) 137 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 138 Santa Cruz-Yapacan1 139 Sucre-Tarabuce 140 Beyuibe-Cueve 141 Charana-Arica (Chile) 'III Read Prejects (Figure IOA-2) It is difficult to. specify read prejects precisely. Fer any given read, a wide range ef pessibilities exist fer imprev ment, frem merely impreving the drainage or seme lecatiens to. cemplete realignment, paving and censtrucctien ef new bridges. Therefere, as fer airfield prejects, ene preject number enly has been assigned to. each read sectien fer indentification purpeses, altheugh in reality there many be a censiderable number ef alternative prejects. Read prejects are numbered in greups by department accerding to. the fellewing scheme: Pando. 600-609 , ,~ La Paz 610-629 Orure 630-649 Potosi 650-669 Beni 670-689 Cechabamba 690-709 Chuquisaca 710-719 Tarija 720-729 Santa Cruz 730-749 External 750-759 (to. aid evaluating internal prejects) Pando. Department - 600 Nacebe-Riberalta 601 Humaita-Cachuela Esperanza 602 Cachuela Esperanza-Fertaleza -407- .-,., i"  o /j /1 'I ,-,' .. ... . oj 0') i :C ) :( -, -. " NEW RAIL CANDIDATE PROJECTS W4uI' Smith ad A30cialeJ FIG U REI 0 A-I  o ./) \\ \J , C .\ <:. ; H. E P (; 13 L I (' A !\ It (; E ;\" T r :'\ .\ CANDIDATE ROAD PROJECTS FIGURE IOA-2 La Paz Department - 610 Ixiamas-Chiv~ 611 San Buenaventura-Ixiamas 612 Apolo-Tumupasa 613 Achacachi-Charazani 614 Achacachi-Sorata 615 Huarina-Achacachi 616 Tiquina-Copacabana 617 R!o Seco-Desaguadero 618 Viacha-Corocoro 619 La Paz-Lambate 620 Unduavi-Inquisivi 621 Inquisivi-Panduro 622 Inquisivi-Independencia 623 Patacamaya-Puerto Japon~s 624 Sanna B~rbara-Bella Vista 625 Viacha-Charana 626 Charazani-Apolo 627 Lambate- La Plazuela Oruro Department - 630 Puerto Japon~s-Tambo Quemado 631 Caracollo-Tambo Quemado 632 Oruro-Caihuasi 633 Machacamarca-Unc!a 634 Machacamarca-Challapata 635 Challapata-Uyuni 636 Challapata-Tarapaya 637 Uncia-Sucre 638 Oruro-Sabaya-Pisiga 639 Santiago de HUari-Llica Potosi Department- 650 Uyuni-Tupiza 651 Cuchu Ingenio-Mojo 652 Mojo-Villazon 653 Potos!-Tomatas 654 Potos!- Sucre 655 Potos!-Uyuni 657 Uyuni-Avaroa (formerly Ollague) 658 Uyuni-Quetena Beni Department - 670 Cruce Blanca Flor-Riberalta 671 Cruce Blanca Flor-Santa Rosa 672 Blanca Flor-Cruce Blanca Flor 673 Cruce Blanca Flor-Puerto Siles 674 Puerto Siles-Guayaramer!n 675 Trinidad-San Miguel de Gasser 676 San Miguel de Gasser-Santa Ana de Yacuma 677 San Miguel de Gasser-San Ram6n -408-  'II 678 Santa Ana de Yacuma-Santa Rosa 679 San Raman-Magdalena 680 Magdalena-San Ignacic de Velasco 681 Magdalena-Casarabe 682 Trinidad-San Ignacio de Moxos 683 San Borja-San Ignacio de Moxos 684 Eteramazama-San Ignacio de Moxos 685 Bridge over the R!o Mamor~ 686 San Joaqu!n-La Horquilla Cochabamba 690 Quillacollo-Independencia Department 691 Independencia-Lequepalca 692 Vinto-Bolivar 693 R!o Caine-Anzaldo 694 Epizana-Sucre 695 Aiquile-Palizada 699 Bolivar-Anzaldo Chuquisaca 710 Sucre-Padilla " Department 711 Padilla-Muyupampa 712 Villa Serrano-Pucara 713 Boyuibe-Villamontes 714 Penas-Fort!n Villazan 715 Azurduy-Palos Blancos Tarija Department - 720 Iscayachi-Mojo 721 Padcaya-Bermejo 722 Tarija-Villamontes 723 Villamontes-Yacuiba 724 Zapatera-Cambar! 725 Trementinal-Carapari (near Yacuiba) Santa Cruz 730 Mataral-Vallegrande Department 731 Santa Cruz-Boyuibe 732 Santa Cruz-Cotoca-Puerto Pailas , ,~ 733 Adapt rail" bridge over R!o Grande to take road as well 734 Pailan-Los Troncos 735 Pailan-San Jos~ de Chiquitos 736 San Jos~ de Chiquitos-Corumb~ 737 San Rafael-San Mat!as ' 738 MutGn -Puerto Busch 739 Muyupampa-Ipat! 740 Vallegrande-Ipita 741 Bridge over R!o Grande at Puerto Banegas 742 Concepcion-San Ignacio de Velasco 743 MutGn-Quijarro/Puerto Su~rez 744 San Jos~ de Chiquitos-Fort!n Ravelo External 750 Desaguadero-Puno (Per~) -409- Air Projects Most air projects involve improvements to airfields but it was not practicable to assign a separate project number to every possible improvement. These could include such things as runway paving., runway extension, terminal improvement, improvement to air navigation and even airport relocation. Instead, a project number was assigned to each airfield where improvements have been suggested which embraces all the im- provements considered at that airfield. Airfield Improvement Projects - 500 La Paz 501 Oruro (Figure 10A-3) 502 Cochabamba 503 Santa Cruz 504 Sucre 505 Potos! 506 Tarija 507 Trinidarl 508 Cobija 509 Riberalta 510 Puerto Su~rez 511 Apolo 512 Ixiamas 513 Santa Rosa 514 San Borja 515 Reyes 516 Rurrenabaque 517 Guayaramer!n 518 San Joaqu!n 519 Magdalena 520 San Ram6n 521 San Mat!as 522 Robore 523 San Jose de Chiqui tos 524 S'an Ignacio 525 Concepci6n 526 Ascensi6n 527 San Javier 528 Uyuni 529 Tupiza 530 Villaz6n 531 Camiri 532 Yacuiba 533 Vi11amontes 534 Bermejo 535 Santa Ana de Yacuma Other Air Projects - 550 Use of wide-bodied jets for foreign trade 551 Use of airships for mass transport 552 Modernization of LAB aircraft fleet 553 Modernization of non-regular aircraft fleet, 554 Use of airships. -410-  I .River Projects (Figure . . 10A-4) , 200 Improve conditions for navigation on Paraguay River between Corumb~ and Puerto Busch 201 New port on Paraguay River at Puerto Busch 203 New port near Paraguay River at Quijarro 205 Improve Bermejo River from south of Bermejo to the Paraguay River 205(a) Build canal from south of Bermejo to the Paraguay River 206 Clear Mamore River, of rock obstructions between Gua yaramer!n and Villa Bella 207 Bypass Cachuela Esperanza on the Madre de Dios River between Riberalta and Villa Bella. 208 Clear obstructions on the Madeira River between Villa Bella and Porto Velho (Brazil) 209 Construct all-season canal between Trinidad and the Mamore River 210 Provide new port facilities at Puerto Villarroel 211 Provide new port facilities at Trinidad 212 Provide new port facilities at Guayaramer1n 214 Provide equipment for river cleaning between Puerto Villarroel and Guayaramer1n 215 Port on R10 Grande at terminal of the rail line currently under construction from Yapacan1. Miscellaneous Projects (Figure 10A-5) 300 Rail roll-on/roll-off ferry facility at Guaqui 301 Change of wagon bogie plant at Guaqui 302 Change of wagon bogie plant at Desaguadero 400 Petroleum product pipeline: Villamontes to Tarija 402 Petroleum product pipeline: Santa Cruz to Trinidad • 800 Hovercraft Ferry at Puerto Banegas 801 Motorized Pontoon Ferry at Puerto Banegas 802 Mineral Conveyer: Mutun to Quijarro . . -411- AIRFIELD IMPROVEMENT CANDIDATE PROJECTS FIGURE IOA- 3  - .' , CANDIDATE RIVER PROJECTS WL,. S"ut4 .,.J .AJjociak~ FIG U REI 0A- 4  Note: Numbers refer to - identification in Tables 10-4 and 10-5 .-6 o orA '{ u· \\. ~ " " r ) :r. ,...., - . R E p lJ A KG E 7\ T ! B L' J C A r :'\ A ~ f ....... ', MISCELLANEOUS CANDIDATE PROJECTS WItUl' Smidt a~J.A~tBj FIG UREI 0 A - 5  APPEN DIX llA VEHICLE AXLE LOAD MEASUREMENT PROGRAM  Appendix 11A VEHICLE AXLE LOAD MEASUREMENT PROGRAM CONTENTS Location of Weighing Stations and Opening 413 Dates 413 Program Costs TABLES Number Page llA-l Locations and Inauguration Dates for 414 Vehicle Weighing Stations -412-  VEHICLE AXLE LOAD MEASUREMENT PROGRAM In Chapter II, it is recommended that a program for vehicle axle load measurements be initiated on paved roads. This appendix outlines such a program. Location of Weighing Stations and Opening Dates It is recommended that 18 permanent stations are set up on all paved roads on the outskirts of the department capitals. Timing would depend on the opening of paved roads at each location but nine stations are recommended for immediate opening. It is also recommended that three mobile units be provided, empowered to make random checks along the main highways. The proposed locations of 18 permanent stations are shown in Table 11A-l together with suggested inauguration dates. These have been chosen to cover the more important roads currently in good condition in the early stages, and to extend the system to other paved roads as they are constructed or improved. It was recommended in Chapter 16 that the present Transito toll system be abolished, principally because receipts at the present time barely cover costs, and because there would be difficult problems with successfully administering higher tolls as well as increasing problems of congestion at these stations as traffic volumes build up. It is therefore recommended that vehicle weighing stations be set up at these Transito stations, taking over the covered facilities and also the existing teams of government officials, who could be retrained to administer the vehicle weighing operations. Only at Guabira would completely new stations be required. Program Costs Costs are not expected to be high. The only real additional cost would be for the purchase of the weighing machines and for their installation. In 1977 prices, fixed machines might cost $b 500,000 each and installation should not be more than about $b 10,000. Hence, the 18 permanent location machines recommended, together with installation, might cost $b 9.2 million. Mobile machines would cost about $b 200,000 and a further $b 0.4 million should be allowed for thr~e vehicles £or the mobile statioris. Total initiation costs of the program might therefore be about $b 10.2 million -413-  Table llA-1 LOCATIONS AND INAUGURATION DATES FOR VEHICLE WEIGHING STATIONS CITY ROAD DATE FOR INAUGURATION (1) La Paz R!o Seco Immediately. Senkata Immediately. Chuquiaguillo On opening of La Paz-Cotapata (1982). Oruro San Pedro Immediately. Vinto On opening of Machacamarca-Challapata (1986). Capachos On opening of Oruro-Caihuasi (1986). I ,j:l. I-' Cochabarnba Quillacollo Immediately. ,j:l. I Sacaba Immediately. Tolata Immediately. Santa Cruz Km 12 Immediately. Warnes Immediately. Guabir& West (Yapacan! Road) On opening of Chimor~-Yapacan! (1985). East (Pto. Banegas Road) On rehabilitation of Guabira-Pto. Banegas (1988). Sucre El Tejar On opening of Sucre-Pulquialto (1980). Potos! Cantumarca On opening of Potos!-Tarapaya (1983). El Surco On opening of Potos!-Totora Palca (1988). San Roque On opening of Potos!-Sijllani (1986). Tarija Cruce Panamericana Immediately. (1) All dates in brackets are approximate. 4 ~. ~ ~ !; ,. .. iii ~ ~. _ • 6 j • I • j •• • 4 • • and an estimated $b 6.5 million of this would be incurred in the period 1981-1983. Running costs for the whole system should be less than the current cost of running the present Transito system ($b 8.5 million in 1979) since less stations would be required, and probably less staff. An estimate could be made of about $b 4-5 million per year for the running costs of a full system. It would make sense for the day-to-day running of the weighing stations to be under the control of Transito, but with technical direction from SNC. -415-  APPENDIX 11B COSTS OF BETTERM ENT OF UNPAVED ROADS  Appendix lIB COSTS OF BETTERMENT OF UNPAVED ROADS CONTENTS Surfacing Costs 417 Total Costs 419 Regional Adjustment 419 TABLES Number llB-l Quantities and Costs Assumed for Betterment 418 llB-2 Total Costs of Betterment 420 -416-  COSTS OF BETTERMENT OF UNPAVED ROADS The betterment of a low volume unpaved road is a policy recommended by the Study in place of completely new construction making little use of the existing alignment. Betterment is defined as improvement of the existing road alignment, and comprises the following: • Widening to seven meters • Additional drainage • Additional retaining walls • Improved surface -- either good gravel or a 6-meter pavement. Table IlB-l sets out the assumptions on necessary work, unit costs of construction and the final costs used in the evaluation. Surfacing costs are given separately from Table IlB-l. Unit prices are based on Working Paper 38a (1). See Table 45, prices for La Paz!Oruro, factored to pesos at SUS 1 = $b 20. Some modifications were made, as follows: a) The costs related to earth works in mountainous regions were taken from the costs for very mountainous regions. b) Drainage costs were doubled to reflect the probably higher costs for this type of improvement compared with a new construction project. c) Costs of surface treatment are lower based on a note from the National Road Service (Servicio Nacio- nal de Caminos - SNC) for single surface treatment. Surfacing Costs For a paved surface, the design illustrated below was assumed. ~ 7m I r ~1-i~~~~~~~~6~m~~~~~~.t.I.·~~___ 20mm Base =600 m:3 /km 10 em Sub-base =1560 m:3/km 20 em (1) Working Paper 38a. Costs of Road Construction. Bolivia National Transport Stuay, La Paz, August, 1980. - 417-  Table llB-1 QUANTITIES AND COSTS ASSUMED FOR BETTERMENT (Excluding surface costs) QUANTITIES AND COSTS BY EXISTING ROAD WIDTHS Less than 5rn 5rn to 7rn Over 7m TERRAIN ITEM UNIT PEICE (LA PAZ) Quantit;i Cost Quantit;i Cost Quantitx Cost (1977 pesos) (costs in thousands of 1977 pesos per krn) Mountainous Widening one curve 97 per m3 (earth) 2,000 194 2,000 194 2,000 194 3 Widening 97 per m (earth) 15,000 1,455 7,500 727 0 0 150m containing wall 1,400 per m3 (stone) 90 126 45 63 0 0 Drainage 4,400 per meter 21 92 21 92 21 92 I TOTAL 1,867 1,076 286 *" I-' 00 I Undulating Widening one curve 3 60 per m (earth) 2,000 120 2,000 120 2,000 120 Widening 60 per m3 (earth) 6,700 402 3,350 201 0 0 Drainage 4,400 per meter 17.5 77 17.5 77 17.5 77 TOTAL 599 398 197 Flat Widening 54 per rn 3 (earth)' 1,200 65 600 32 0 0 Drainage 4,400 per meter 14 62 14 62 14 62 TOTAL 127 94 62 '" ,. " . ~ .. II; .. . . 111- II< j " .. II> , If <Ii It .j " , 11' :II! lilt II t \Ii It j " t  Costs per km were calculated in the following manner: SURFACE TYPE ITEM UNIT PRICE QUANTITY PER KM COST (1977 pesos) (thousands of 1977 pesos) Pavement Surface 35 per m2 6,000 210 Base 3 430 per m 600 258 3 Subbase 180 per m 1,560 281 Total 749 (say 750) Gravel Gravel 3 200 per m 1,050 210 Total Costs Table 11B-2 presents the final costs of betterment for the two surface types. Costs were factored by 15 percent to allow for contingencies, and another 15 percent to bring costs to 1985 relative levels (but still in terms of 1977 pesos). Regional Adjustment On the basis of data supplied by SNC, a regional factor of 1.4 was estimated to augment the costs given in Table 11B-2 for betterment work in the east of the country. In particular, the factor was applied to the following roads: • Santa Cruz-Yacuiba • Santa Cruz-Puerto Pailas • Km 87-Puerto Banegas. -419-  1f II' Table 11B-2 "" . TOTAL COSTS OF BETTERMENT ''1\ . "I!! SURFACE COSTS BY EXISTING ROAD tHDTH TYPE TERRAIN ITEM Less than 5IP Sm to 7m Over 7m '" (costs in thousands of pesos per km) ". 'it Paved Mountainous From 11B-1 1,867 1,076 286 Surface 750 750 750 e;, Total 2,617 1,826' 1,036 "" Final ( 1) 3,461 2,414 1,370 Undulating From 11B-1 Surface 599 750 398 750 197 ',.. 750 Total 1,349 1,148 947 "" Final (1) 1,784 1,518 1,385 d; Flat From 11B-1 127 94 62 Surface "" 750 750 750 '" Total 877 844 812 >it Final (1 ) 1,160 1,116 1,074 ,t Gravel Mountainous From 11B-1 1,867 1,076 286 Surface Total 210 2,077 210 1,286 210 496 '. ~ Final (1) 2,747 1,700 656 ill Undulating From 11B-1 599 398 197 Surface 210 210 210 " 111 Total 809 608 407 ., Final (1 ) 1,070 804 538 ''11\ Flat From 11B-1 127 94 62 Surface 210 210 210 Total 337 304 272 " Final ( 1) 446 402 360 (1 ) Final costs = Total costs plus 15 percent contingency x 1.15 r, (Factor to bring costs to relative 1985 price levels) • !I' -426- '\1:' ,~~  APPENDIX llC HIGHWAY DESIGN STANDARDS  Appendix llC HIGHWAY DESIGN STANDARDS CONTENTS Design Standards for New Roads 423 Improvements of Existing Roads 423 TABLES Number Page llC-l Recommended Design Standards for New Roads 424 llC-2 Guide to the Improvement of Existing Roads 427 -421-  HIGHWAY DESIGN STANDARDS It is common practice for highway departments to specify standards for the design of highways but in practice, they are very rarely adhered to in every detail. This is as it should be. Design standards are useful as a guide but the design of a particular road must take account of the specific factors which cannot be covered in a set of general standards. Important examples of such factors are as follows: Costs - Construction costs are generally related to terrain, so that standards are usually lower in more difficult terrain to avoid prohibitively high costs. But it is usually difficult to encompass the full range of terrains in a general design standard. Special features in one region may allow relatively easy alignments through otherwise difficult territory while other regions pose extreme difficulties -- the Yungas valleys being a notorious example. The engineer must accomodate his design to the specific problems encountered in order to get a cost-effective solution. Funding Limits - Highway investment planning must take account of the funds available and the number of projects competing for them. It can be bad policy to build one road strictly in accordance with design standards but at the same time postponing other similar projects. It could be better to lower the design standards and obtain more kilometers of reasonable standard highway for the same money. Condition of the EXistin¥ Road - It may be possible to delay new road construct on and improve the existing road instead. Much depends upon the condition of the existing road and on the traffic volumes. It is essential that every highway project is preceeded by a design study to examine the costs and effectiveness of alternative solutions, taking account of the factors specified above. It is a recommendation of this Study that low cost solutions making full use of the existing roadway, such as betterment, should have priority over completely new roads, especially considering the low volumes and severe financial restraints which currently prevail. The section following indicates design standards for new roads and the subsequent section recommends action for improving existing highways. -422- Design Standards for New Roads Design standards for new roads are presented in Table llC-l. They are based largely on the recommendation of Frederick W. Cron in his review of highway design standards in developing countries (1). In general, the standards allow lower geometric standards for a given design speed (tighter curve radii, shorter sight distances, steeper gradients) than do the SNC standards presented in the Main Report in Table 11-5, which are based on American highway design practices. Also, recommended standards generally specify a lower design speed for a given traffic category and terrain class, than do the SNC standards. The traffic ranges for each design level are expressed in terms of average daily traffic on opening. In general, narrower shoulder widths are specified than recommended by Cron, in order to save costs. Improvements of Existing Roads The design standards specified in Table llC-l are for completely new roads. Where a road already exists, it may be possible to improve the existing alignment, thus postponing new construction until traffic volumes have grown to between 1,000 and 1,500 vehicles per day. Two major improvements are possiblei major gravelling to improve drainage and place a 15 cm good gravel surface; and betterment, which includes widening to 7 meters, special widening of difficult curves, retaining walls where necessary, additional drainage and a 6 meter pavement. Projects for major gravelling and betterment were evaluated in Chapter 11. It is very difficult to specify standards for betterment. The philosophy of this type of improvement is that it is more worthwhile to invest money in a good surface than in improving the alignment. Betterment is thus specific in requiring a 7 meter roadway width with a 6 meter pavement, probably of single surface treatment at low volumes of traffic. However, this 1Il! standard is deliberately vague on the amount of work to be put into straightening of bends or removing sharp vertical curves. This must be left to the judgement of the design team responsible for each project and it is suggested that each project team is required to work within a specified total cost. Appendix llB details the quantities assumed in the costing of betterment used in the evaluations in this Study. (1) A Review of Highway Design Practices in Developing Countries, Frederick W. Cron, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. May, 1975. -423- •  Table 11C-1 RECOMMENDED DESIGN STANDARDS FOR NEW ROADS MINIMUM MINIMUM SIGHT TRAFFIC DESIGN CURVE MAXIMUM DISTANCE RC'lru) WIDI'H CLASS VOLUME (1) TERRAIN SPEED RADIUS GRADIENT Stopp:ing Pass:ing Paverrent ShOUlder (2) 'Ibtal SURFACE TYPE (kph) (m) (%) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) A Under 50 Flat 60 114 6 70 380 Undulat:ing 40 50 8 40 240 5 0.5 6 Gravel Mounta:inous 30 27 10 30 170 B 50- 400 Flat 80 211 6 115 530 I .t:o. Undulat:ing 65 135 7 80 420 6 0.5 7 Gravel or surface N .t:o. Mounta:inous 40 50 9 40 240 treatlrent I C 400-1000 Flat 90 278 5 135 600 Surface toeatlrent, Undulat:ing 80 211 6 115 530 6.7 1.0 8.7 bi tuminous macadam, Mounta:inous 50 76 8 55 310 road mix or asphal- tic roncrete D 1000-2000 Flat 95 311 4 147 635 Undulat:ing 80 211 5 115 530 7.0 2.0 11. 0 Asphaltic roncrete Mounta:inous 60 114 7 70 380 or mad niix E 2000+ Flat 100 344 4 160 670 Undulat:ing 90 278 5 135 600 7.3 3.0 13.3 Asphaltic concrete Mounta:inous 70 155 7 90 460 or rigid (1) Average daily traffic (ADI') on opening. (2) Minimum width - can be greater if negligible effect on cost. SOURCES: Study estimates. "A ReviEW of Design Practices :in Developing Countries", Frederick W. Cron, The World Bank, tvashington, USA, May 1975.  .} The recommendation of only a 6 meter pavement may be considered controversial. The following comments can be made: 1. The Cron based standards for new roads (see Table 11C-1) envisage the possibility of 6 meter roads up to 400 vehicles per day in all circumstances and up to 1,000 vehicles per day in some. 2. Congestion effects are unlikely to be felt in any terrain with road widths of 6 meters or more, for volumes up to about 800 vehicles per day. This represents about one vehicle per minute. This subject is discussed in Appendix 11D. 3. Evidence of increased accident rates with 6 meter roads in place of 7 meters is contradictory. A recent study (2) by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL) of the United Kingdom found that road width was a significant factor in affecting the accident rate in Jamaica, but that it was not important in Kenya. In Jamaica, the report suggests that a reduction of one meter in road width will bring about an increase of 0.755 personal injury accidents per one million vehicle kilometers. That is to say, on a 100 km road with 200 vehicles per day, there will be about five more personal injury accidents per year on a 6 meter road compared with a 7 meter road. However, this same increase in accidents is predicted when comparing roads of 7 meter width against those of 8 meters, or of 5 meter width against those of 6 meters. What is It an "acceptable" accident rate is a delicate subject, but the Jamaica results are not in themselves an argument against 6 meter roads. In Kenya, no link was found between accident rate and road width. In both countries, the number of junctions per kilometer, which is little affected by design standar~s, was important. 4. There is some precedent for a 6 meter pavement in Bo- livia in the Santa Cruz-Cochabarnba highway, which is being reconstructed to this width. Also, it is noted that the La Paz-Cotapata paved highway is constructed with half meter shoulders. • (2) A Study of Accident Rates on Rural Roads in Developing Countries, by G. D. Jacobs, Laboratory Report 732, Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL), Crowthorne, England, 1976. .. " • -425- • .  It is strongly recommended that the first project studied for betterment be treated as a pilot study, to establish the possibilities for this type of improvement. It is frankly admitted that the procedure is untried in Bolivia and costs must still be uncertain. However, it is the view of the Study that it is a procedure well worth pursuing further in order to extend the paved road system of Bolivia at reasonable cost. Table llC-2 indicates the range of traffic volumes on unpaved roads where the three alternative improvements -- major gravelling, betterment and new road -- could be feasible. It is emphasized that Table llC-2 is a guide only and that a feasibility study should be undertaken for each project. Concluding Remarks In producing the design standards given in this Appendix, account was taken of the HOM Model evaluations of road design levels. More work could be done using this model to further refine these standards, and it is suggested that this could be a suitable task for the proposed SNC Studies and Investigation Department (see Chapter 16). -426-  Table llC-2 GUIDE TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF EXISTING ROADS TERRAIN EXISTING WIDTH TRAFFIC VOLUME (1) RECOMMENDED ACTION (m) Flat All 50-100 Major gravelling 100- 800 Betterment 800+ New road Undulating Less than 5 m 50-200 Major gravelling 200-800 Betterment 800+ New road 5 to 7 m 50-150 Major gravelling 150-800 Betterment 800+ New road Above 7 m 50 -100 Major gravelling 100-800 Betterment 800+ New road Mountainous Less than 5 m 50-500 Major gravelling 500+ New road 5 to 7 m 50-350 Major gravelling 350-700 Betterment • 700+ New road . Above 7 m 50-150 Major gravelling 200-800 Betterment 800+ New road (1) Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on opening. -427-  APPENDIX 11D HIGHWAY CAPACITY AND CONGESTION  Appendix 110 HIGHWAY CAPACITY AND CONGESTION CONTENTS Conclusions 432 TABLES Number 11D-1 Average Speeds Related to Design Speed 430 And Vo1urne-to-Capacity (VIC) Ratio 11D-2 Capacity Reduction Factors 431 -428-  HIGHWAY CAPACITY AND CONGESTION The basic source for relationships on highway capacity is the Highway Capacity Manual (1) but for convenience, the relationships derived from this source for the World Bank Road Analysis Model (RAM) (2) have been used in this Appendix. Section 38 of the RAM Manual gives equations for average vehicle speed which depend on design speed, volume-to-capacity ratio (VIC Ratio) and the percentage of the road section where sight distances exceed 1,500 feet. Assuming the worst case for the latter parameter of zero percent, Table llD-l shows how average speed varies according to the other parameters. From the speeds in Table llD-l, the following values can be deduced for the VIc Ratio at which congestion effects will begin to be felt. DESIGN TYPE OF vIc RATIO FOR: SPEED TERRAIN No Congestion Slight Congestion (kph) 80-113 Flat 1:16 1:8 64 Rolling 1:8 1:4 48 Mountainous 1:4 1:2 The capacity of a 7.3 meter tWo-lane road (there are few roads of greater size in Bolivia) is basically 2,000 cars per hour or 30,800 cars per day. This basic capacity is affected by the number of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, road width, edge clearance and design speed (assumed here to be linked to terrain). Using values in the RAM Manual, values of capacity reduction are calculated for each terrain type in Table 110-2, assuming fairly poor road conditions. (1 ) Highway capacit~ Manual 1965, Highway Research Board Special Report 7, National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1965. (2 ) Road Analysis Model (RAM) (Release II) User's Manual, The World Bank, Washington, D.C., September 1976. -429-  Table 11D-1 AVERAGE SPEEDS RELATED TO DESIGN SPEED AND VOLUME-TO-CAPACITY (ViC) RATIO (Kilometers per hour) DESIGN MAXIMUM MINIMUM AVERAGE SPEED AT VIC RATIO OF: SPEED SPEED SPEED 0 1:8 1:4 1:2 3:4 1:1 113 113 48 93 86 80 68 56 48 97 97 46 86 80 74 62 50 46 I ~ 80 80 44 79 73 67 55 44 44 w 0 64 64 42 64 64 61 49 42 42 I 48 48 41 48 48 48 42 41 41 SOURCE: Road Analysis Model (RAM) (Release II) User's Manual, The World Bank, Washington, D.~., ~epteffiber 1976 . 111 ... ~ '* . . .. '" "'. ",!II "'. Iii· 'Ii lI;i ""Ii i!1~ 0\ li!ltl!' lI't  Table llD-2 CAPACITY REDUCTION FACTORS HEAVY VEHICLES :RClIID WIDrH IA'.I'.ERAL CJ:..'EARANCE DESIGN SPEED 1 Percent Reduction Reduction Edge Reduction Reduction 'I'Ol'AL CAPACITY TERRAIN Equivalent ( ) of Traffic Factor Width Factor Clearance Factor Speed Factor REDUCl'ICN FACrOR - - (m) (m) (kph) Flat 2.5 SO 0.45 6 O.Sl 1.3 0.92 SO 0.96 0.32 I lblting 5 SO 0.24 5.5 0.76 0.7 0.S3 64 0.95 0.14 "' w " I-' MJuntainous 10 SO 0.12 5 (2) 0.75 0 0.72 4S 0,94 0.06 I (1) ,Heavy vehicles in equivalent cars. (2) Reduction Factor in RAM Manual increases for widths lower than this. SOURCE: Road Analysis Model (RAM) (Release ;II) User's Manual, '!he World Bank, Washington, D.C., September 1976.  ,"" Basic daily capacities can be estimated using the factors derived in Table 110-2 as follows: Level Terrain: 0.32 x 30,800 = 9,856 veh/day Rolling Terrain: 0.14 x 30,800 = 4,312 veh/day Mountainous Terrain: 0.06 x 30,800 = 1,848 veh/day. Hence, volumes at which congestion effects first start becoming noticed are as follows: VOLUMES BELOW WHICH CONGESTION EFFECTS ARE: TERRAIN Zero Slight " (vehicles per day) Level 616 1,232 Rolling 539 1,078 Mountainous 462 924 Conclusions These are pessimistic values to indicate the volumes at which congestion may become a factor under the worst conditions. If these values are approached, a special calculation would be required to take into account the particular characteristics of the road in question. In most cases, the volume at which capacity effects would be noticed will be above the values given in this Appendix. " ''II .. '" -432-  APPENDIX llE SUMMARY OF EVALUATIONS OF UNPAVED ROADS  Appendix lIE SUMMARY OF EVALUATIONS OF UNPAVED ROADS 'l'ABLE Number i?age llE-l Summary of Evaluations of Non-paved Roads 435 -433-  SUMMARY OF EVALUATIONS OF UNPAVED ROADS Table 11E-1 in this Appendix summarizes the results of the evaluations of unpaved roads which are discussed in Chapter 11 and 15. -434-  'IablellE-l st:.M11!.RY OF EVAWATICNS OF NCN-PAVED R:l1!.[5 BENEFITS LENGTH TRAFFIC (11 FirstYear P~ P~ Terraiii IMPROJEMEm' Annual G~ Year of Rate of ~ -~ 'Ib ~ F I a t . Mount. -'l)'Pe (2) Cost __Date~~ Rate Opening Benefi t Return ($b million ($b million - 1977) (I) - 1977) 613 1\chacachi Ancoraines 35.5 86 14 Gravel. 12.9 84 122 245 6,0 1985 4.2 32.6 614 1\chacachi Warizata ~5.1 15.1 59 41 Gravel. 4.72 84 81 163 6.0 1985 0.5 10.6 614 WarizataKm15.1 Sorata 38.1 10 90 Gravel. 10.39 87 81 163 6.0 1988 1.7 16.4 615 Huarina Achacachi 19.3 57 43 Pa'll'elreIlt 23.27 84 240 483 6.0 1986 6,9 29.7 .!. w 616 Tiquina Copacabana 41. 7 6 94 Gravel. 12.64 87 128 183 3.0 1988 3.1 24.5 <-r 617 R!o Seco Desaguadero 98.0 92 8 Pavarent 109.10 84 242 382 3,9 1986 36.6 33.5 618 Viacha Co.roco:ro 72.6 64 35 1 Gravel, 24.85 87 73 116 3.9 1988 2.53 10,2 - Viacha C8pirl 12.7 100 - Gravel. 4.30 84 118 118 o 1985 1.1 25,6 620 Unduavi Olul\J!lalii 66.7 100 Gravel. 21.87 81 92 163 4.9 1982 3.4 15.5 621 Ir¥:Ju.isivi Pa:ndu:ro 107.3 16 21 63 Gravel. 37.3 84 83 115 2,8 1985 5.4 14.5 623 Patacamaya Pte. J~ 56.8 50 38 12 Gravel. 23.1 87 67 175 8.3 1988 2.57 11.1 630 Ptc. Japon&; CUrahuara 50.4 62 34 4 Gravel. 19.96 87 67 180 8.6 1988 2.58 12.9 630 CUrahuara Tambo Quenlado 111,55 45 45 10 Gravel. 41.93 87 58 160 8.8 1988 5.04 12.1 - Caracollo Colquiri 36.9 21 26 53 Gravel. 14.87 87 96 220 7.2 1988 3.07 20.7 632 Oruro caihuasi 38.8 34 66 Paverrent 53.7 87 258 675 8.3 1989 16.1 30.0 638 Oruro Toledo 38.6 87 13 Gravel, 12.47 81 123 265 6.6 1982 3.5 28.1 633 Machacamarca Huanuni 22.4 55 45 Pavenent 29.1 84 355 563 3.9 1986 12,9 44.3 633 Huanuni unc!a 55.7 100 Gravel. 18.61 84 165 277 4.4 1985 5.4 29,0 635 Challapata Huari 12.7 100 - Gravel. 4.56 87 82 160 5.7 1988 0.79 17.4 636 Challapata Ventilla 93.8 17 16 67 Pavarent 192.4 87 81 382 13.8 1989 17.6 9.1 • ~ • ~ • • • • • j •• • ~ •• • , •• • ~ • • • • ~ ~ _ j • • • t • • ~ •  Table l1E-l (COnt.) BENEFITS I..EN:;TH TRAFFIC (1) Ffr'stYear ProJECl' Percent by Terrain lM'rovEMENT 1'Ii'iriUal Gra:ith Year of Rate-Of Fran To ~ Flat und, Mount. ~ (~~ COSt ~~~ Rate ~g Benefit Return ($b million (%) ($b million - 1977) - 1977) 636 Ventilla Tarapaya 85.3 10 22 68 Pavement 178.0 87 110 360 10.4 1989 22.3 12.5 637 Uncla Macha 89.1 10 23 67 Gravel. 23.86 87 119 121 0.1 1988 6.0 25.1 - Ventilla Macha 38.7 76 24 Gravel. 12.82 84 90 103 1.1 1988 2.08 16.2 651 Tupiza Mojo 66.8 21 66 13 Gravel. 27.78 87 64 80 1.9 1988 3.02 10.9 652 Mojo Vil1az6n 25.0 11 89 Gravel. 10.85 87 71 1Q7 3.5 1988 1.25 11.5 653 Potos! CUchu Ingenio 38.0 23 23 54 Pavement 72.4 84 176 424 7.6 1986 9.5 13.1 653 CUchu Ingen10 Totora Palca 31.0 71 29 Pavement 45.9 87 120 361 9.6 1989 6.6 14.4 653 Totora Palca camargo 117.0 8 46 46 Gravel. 43.26 87 118 239 6.1 1988 9.0 20.8 653 Camargo Las carreras 73.9 1 99 Gravel. 25.5 81 118 265 7.0 1982 5.39 21.1 1,. w 653 Iscayachi Tanatas 50.8 26 8 66 Gravel. 16.7 81 118 334 9.1 1982 6.0 35.9 0'\ I 654 Potos! S1jllani 59.3 7 73 20 Pavement 85.8 84 220 441 6,0 1986 19.7 23.0 654 S1jllani Pu1qu1alto 71.8 14 22 64 Gravel. 29.11 87 110 152 2.7 1988 4.82 16.6 654 Pulqu1al. to Sucre 29.2 68 32 Pavement 52.7 84 249 356 3.0 191:16 11,6 22.0 690 Qu1llaoollo Santa Elena 56.4 28 72 Gravel. 19.09 84 67 101 3.5 1985 3.04 15.9 690 Santa Elena Independencia 92.7 100 Gravel. 25.89 87 60 90 3.4 1988 3.1 12.0 694 Epizana Sucre 237.7 4 34 62 Gravel. 102.36 87 109 175 4.0 1988 15.1 14.8 695 Aiquile Palizada 136.8 49 51 Gravel. 32.5 87 16 56 11.0 1988 8,48 26.1 710 Sucre Tarabuoo 64.4 6 35 59 Gravel. 26.36 81 159 179 1.0 1982 5.2 19.7 710 Tarabuoo Zudafiez 44.8 21 79 Gravel, 17.39 84 100 135 2.5 1985 2.62 15.1 710 Zudaiiez Padilla 78.3 42 58 Gravel. 30.88 87 60 94 3.8 1988 3.71 12.0 711 Padilla IpaU 228.8 1.2 72.8 66.0 Gravel. 81.34 87 41 84 6.2 1988 7.18 8.8 713 Boyu1be Villan'Ontes 107.3 37 63 Gravel. 47.5 87 118 458 12.0 1988 9.0 18.9 714 Peiias Fortin Villaz6n 130 100 Gravel. 18.0 87 4 50 23.4 1988 2.16 12.0 721 padcaya Bel:'mejo 159.5 7 71 22 Gravel. 47.71 84 82 243 9.5 1985 7.5 15.8 II ..  Table 11E-1 (COnt.) BENEFITS LENGTH TFAFFIC llL Fii'St Year ProJECr ~ Terrain ~ Aririual Gi'&\1th Year of ~te 0: N::>. Fran To ~ FU . ~ Type l21 COst ~ 1977 ~ ~te ~g Benefit ~ ($b million (%) ($b million - 1977) - 1977) 722 Tarija Villamontes 249.4 1 25 74 Gravel. 68.5 87 65 163 8.0 1988 15.8 23.0 723 Villamontes Yacuiba 104.5 61 33 6 Gravel. 47.09 84 106 369 11.0 1985 5.45 11.6 730 Mataral Vallegrande 52.7 - 100 Gravel. 19.79 87 54 105 5.7 1988 2.13 10.8 731 Santa Cruz Abap(5 128 100- Gravel. 59.16 84 164 536 10.4 1985 17.11 28.9 731 Abap6 Boyuibe 217 86 14 Gravel. 118.79 87 106 323 9.7 1988 22.9 19.3 732 Santa Cruz Cotoca 18 100- Pavem.=mt 27.1 81 400 560 2.8 1983 8.5 31.4 732 COtoca Puerto Pailas 25 100- Gravel. 13.74 84 10 50 14.5 1985 3.0 21.£ 1743 Muttm Quijar.ro 44 Gravel. 19.7 81 1982 *'" ~ - Cruce Tarata Tarata 13.1 100- Gravel. 4.86 84 65 130 5.9 1985 0.3 6 .~ I Punata Aran! 8.31 100- Paverent 8.9 87 150 201 2.5 1989 3.04 34,= Cllza Punata 11.1 100 - Pavement 12.0 87 163 342 6.4 1989 4.36 36.! Tarata Cllza 10.8 100 - Pavement 11.6 87 113 254 7.0 1989 3,02 26.: R!o lvivigarzama Pt.o. Villarroel 25.3 100 - Gravel. 11.84 87 168 371 6.8 1988 4.6 38.! CObija Porvenir 30 100 - Pavement 46.9 81 353 750 6.5 1983 14.4 30,' Palos Blano::::s carcpo Pajoso 83 15 58 27 Gravel. 27.25 87 41 58 2.9 1988 4.14 15.: Cr. Santivafiez Cr. Angostura 5.3 75 25 Gravel. 2.01 84 138 168 1.7 1985 0.5 24. Parotani capinota 24.6 21 79 Pavement 35.3 87 238 483 6.1 1989 9.8 27. Chaco Aguirre 19.3 13 61 26 Gravel. 4.77 87 56 70 1.9 1988 0.8 16. Cr. Sn. Lorenzo San Lorenzo 3.12 19 81 Gravel. 1.92 87 185 365 5.8 1988 0.36 19. (1) 24 Hour Annual Average Daily Traffic (AOT). (2) Gravel. = Major Gravelling; Pavement = Bettement with Paving -- see <l1apter 11 for definitions. 'f '" ,~ Ij .. "',. "'!II j,,, ,tr \111 " • t ,. • It ,; 11  APPENDIX llF BRIDGE ANALYSIS  Appendix llF BRIDGE ANALYSIS CONTENTS Bridge Project Screening 449 Bridge Evaluation Procedure 450 Bridge Replacement 452 TABLES Number Page IlF-l Costs of Delays when Interruption Lasts 440 3 Hours - Year 1985 IlF-2 Costs of Delays when Interruption Lasts 441 6 and 8 Hours - Year 1985 IlF-3 Vehicle Operating Costs per Hour of Time 443 Related Items IlF-4 Vehicle Cost Due to Delays Between 10 and 445 24 Hours - Year 1985 I1F-5 Passenger Time Costs Due to Delays of 10 446 to 24 Hours - Year 1985 IlF-6 Costs of Time for Freight Due to Delays 447 Between 10 and 24 Hours - Year 1985 I1F-7 Total Costs Due to Delays Between 10 and 448 24 Hours - Year 1985 I1F-8 List of Justified Bridges for 1989 451 I1F-9 Existing Bridges Requiring Replacement 453 FIGURES Follows Number Page llF-l Highways Selected for Analysis of Bridges 450 -438-  BRIDGE ANALYSIS In the evaluation of existing unpaved roads reported in Chapter 11, three classes of road improvements were considered: new construction, betterment and major gravelling. In these evaluations, improvements to the alignment and road surface and the provision of minor drainage structures were considered, but not the provision of bridges. In this Appendix, the economic feasibility of the provision of bridges is analyzed. The evaluation was carried out based on the calculations of savings due to the elimination of interruptions caused by lack of bridges. The analysis was made for the year 1989, taking into account the projected traffic volumes in the recommended network and calculating the rates of return for the first year. The analysis was based on a survey on bridge needs, carried out by the Study in nine districts of the National Road Service (SNC). A total of 325 river crossings were identified where bridges might be required at an estimated total cost of 2,414 million 1977 pesos. As a basis for the evaluation, tables were prepared on costs of delays for two kinds of interruptions: • Short interruptions of up to 10 hours • Longer interruptions of more than 10 hours. In the first part of this Appendix, it is explained how the delay tables were prepared, and in the second part, the analysis itself is described and conclusions presented. Costs of Dela~s for Interruptions of Less than 10 Hours - In Tables 1ip-1 an I1F-2, costs are presented for interruptions of 3, 6 and B hours and for occurrences of 2 to 40 days in the rainy season from December to March. These tables were calculated with the following formula: H2 C = D x V x 20 x awc Where: C = Cost of the delay D = Number of days of interruption during the rainy season V = Average daily traffic H = Delay length in hours awc = Average weighted cost of one hour of delay of the vehicle mix. -439-  Table llF-l COSTS OF DELAYS WBEN INTERRUPTION LASTS 3 HOURS - YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) • COST OF ONE HOUR DAYS OF INTERRUPTION IN ONE YEAR ADT OF INTERRUPTION 2 Days 4 Days 8 Days 16 Days 20 Days 40 Days 50 6,260 5,634 11,268 22,536 45,072 56,340 112 s 680 100 13,502 12,152 24,304 48,607 97,214 121,518 243,036 150 20,253 18,228 30,455 72,910 145,822 182,.277 364,554 200 28,506 45,655 51,311 102,622 205,243 256,554 513,108 250 '35.633 32,070 64,139 128,279 256,558 320,697 641,394 300 42.759 38,483 76,966 153,932 307,865 384.831 769,662 I 350 . 49,886 44,897 8.9,795 179 1 590 359,179 448,974 897,#948 ~ 400 66,140 59,526 119,052 238,104 476,208 595,260 1,190,520 "'" 0 I 450 74,408 66,967 133,934 267,869 535,738 669,672 1,339,344 500 82,675 74,408 14.8,815 297,630 595,260 744,075 1,488,150 550 90,943 81,849 163,697 327,395 654,790 818,487 1,636,974 600 99,210 89,289 178,578 357,156 714,312 892,890 1,785,780 650 107,478 96,730 193,460 386,921 773,842 967,302 1,934,604 700 115,745 104,171 208.341 416,682 833,364 1,041,705 2,083,410 750 124,013 111,612 223,223 446,,447 892.894 1,116,117 2,232,234 800 108,192 97,373 194,746 389,491 778,982 973,728 1,947,456 850 114,954 103,459 206,917 413.834 827,669 1,034,586 2,069,172 900 121,716 109,544 219,089 438,178 876,355 1~095f444 2,190,888 950 128,478 115,630 231,260 462,521 925,042 1,156,302 2,312,604 1,000 135,240 121,716 243.432 486,864 973,728 1,217,,160 2,434,320 a. ",iii ~ .. " ....... "' ..... "" ........ "' •• "".;iii iIO,o; 1iI.".i ~· ....... Ii".  Table 11F-2 COSTS OF DELAYS WHEN INTERRUPTION LASTS 6 AND 8 HOURS YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) DAYS OF INTERRUPTION IN ONE YEAR ADT COST OF ONE HOUR 6 Hours ~H2!20 1.8). 8 Hours (H2Z~O = 3.21 OF INTERRUPTION 8 bays 12 bays 20 Days 12 Days 32 Davs 40 Days 50 6,260 90 144 135,216 225,360 240,384641,024 801,280 100 13,502 194:429 291,643 486,072 518,477 1,382,605 1,728,256 I 150 20,253 291,643 437,465 729,108 777,715 2,073,907 2,592,384 "'"" "' f-' 200 28,506 410,486 615,730 1~026,216 1,094,630 2,919,014 3,648,768 I 250 35,633 513,115 769,673 1,282,788 1,368,307 3,648,819 4,561,024 300 42,759 615,730 923,594 1,539,324 1,641,946 4,378,522 5,473,152 350 49,886 718,358 1,077 t 538 1,795,896 1,915,622 5,108,326 6,385~408 400 66,140 952,416 1,428,624 2,381,040 2,539,776 6,772#736 8,465,920 450 74,408 1,071,475 1,607,213 2,678,688 2,857,267 7,619,379 9,524,224 500 82,675 1,190,520 1,785,780 2,976,300 3,174,720 8,465,920 10,582,400 550 90,943 1,309,579 1,964,369 3,273,948 3,492,211 9,312,563 11,640,704 600 99,210 1,428,624 2,142,936 3,571,560 3,809,664 10,159,104 12,698,880 650 107,478 1,547,683 2,321,525 3,869,208 4,127,155 11,005,747 13,757,184 700 115,745 1,666,728 2,500,092 4,166,820 4,444,608 11,852,288 14,815,360 750 124,013 1,785 , 787 2,678,681 4,464,468 4,762,099 12,698~931 15,873,664 800 108,192 1,557,965 2,336,947 3,894,912 4,154,573 11,078,861 13,848,576 850 114,954 1,655,338 2,483,006 4,138,344 4,414,234 11,771#290 14,714~112 900 121,716 1,752,710 2,629,066 4,381,776 4,673,894 12,463,718 15,579,648 950 128.1' 478 1~850,083 2,775,125 4,625,208 4,933,555 13,156,147 16~445,184 1,000 135,240 1,947,456 2,921,184 4,868 s 640 5,193,216 13,848,576 17,310,720  ... This formula assumes that, on average, vehicles encounter only half the length of the delay and that vehicles are in operation for ten hours each day. The value awc is the avel:'age weighted cost of one hour of vehicle operation and passenger time for an average mix of vehicles. The cost of vehicle operations considered in the value awc refer only to costs related to time. These are: '. • Crew costs 'II! • Interest costs • Costs when vehicle is standing. These costs are shown in Table 11F-3 for three types of surface and for estimated vehicle utilizations corresponding to 1977 and 1999. Averages of the costs corresponding to paved and gravel surfaces and to 1977 and 1999 utilizations '!II were taken for the different types of vehicles. The average vehicle mixes were taken for different traffic categories indicated in Working Paper 51 (1), as follows: PERCENT COMPOSITION BY VEHICLE CLASS (1) TPD L B1 B2 T1 T2 T3 TOTAL 50 22 6 3 13 37 19 100 100- 150 25 5 5 11 24 30 100 200- 350 24 7 5 9 15 40 100 400- 750 19 11 11 7 15 37 100 BOO-1,000 30 13 3 13 22 19 100 (1) L = Light vehicles, B1 and B2 = Small and large buses, T1 ' T2 and T3 = Small, medium and large trucks. . Costs of passenger time were considered as follows for ., the different types of vehicles: (1) Working Paper 51, Classification of the Base Year Network -II Road Links. Bolivia National Transport Study, La Paz, August, 19BO. -442- 'II'  Table 11F-3 VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS PER HOUR OF TIME RELATED ITEMS (Costs at 1985 levels in 1977 pesos - $b/hr) LIGHT VEHICLE SMALL BUS LARGE BUS SMALL TRUCK MEDIUM ~ LARGE TRUCK SURFACE Ut (1L22 Ut 99 Ut '7 Ut §9 Ut " Ut 99 Ut 77 Ut 99 bt 77 Ut §9 Ut 77 Ut 99 Paved 46.98 56.41 113.10 110.93 188.77 198.47 65.30 62.61 82.69 79.79 128.50 128.02 Gravel 58.74 68.S3 130.50 129.03 231.57 245.10 53.12 51.18 75.97 72.13 1~7.i2 113.84 Earth 62.76 73.98 1.55 121.14 221.70 236.31 45.62 4~.43 68.82 62.69 110.72 ~O3.38 I t::.. t::.. W I (1) Ut = Utilization - for values, see Chapter 5, Table 5-7.  '. OCCUPANCY COST OF PASSENGER ,iii VEHICLE CLASS VALUE OF TIME FACTOR TIME ($b/hr.pass. ) (pass/veh) ( $b/hr) Light vehicle 12 3.7 44.4 Small bus 5 24.4 122.0 Large bus 5 37.7 188.5 Small truck 4 7.0 28.0 Medium truck 4 5.8 23.2 Large truck 4 5.7 Delay Costs for Interru2tions Longer than 10 Hours - These 22.8 '. costs are shown in Tables iiF-4 to 11F-7. For these longer interruptions, three types of delay costs were calculated: • Vehicle delay costs '. • Passenger time costs • Freight time costs. Vehicle delay costs were calculated using the following formula: '1 1 = 2 x awh N x 365 x awvc x V • Where: C v = Vehicle delay cost due to delays of more than 10 hours N = Number of interruptions per year awh == Annual operating hours (weighted average for vehicle mix) awvc == Vehicle cost for one-hour delay (weighted • average for the vehicle mix) V = Average daily traffic. Costs of delays are calculated over only a 24 hour period since i t is considered that activities will be rearranged during longer interruptions to compensate. Values of "awvc" were taken from Table 11F-3 using the average vehicle mixes specified earlier and the annual operating hours as specified in Chapter 5 of the Main Report. The passengers' time costs were calculated with the following formula: C == 8 x N x awt x ppd t Where: C == Passenger time costs due to the delays Nt = Number of interruptions per year awt = Value of passenger time (weighted average for the vehicle mix) ppd = Average number of passengers per day. -444-  Table 11F-4 VEHICLE COST DUE TO DELAYS BETWEEN 10 AND 24 HOURS - YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) OOST OF CNE HClJR AV. ORIVIN:; Hc::xJRS BY 1 awh NUMBER OF IN'I'ERRtlPTICNS PER YEAR AJ:Jr OF INTERBI.lPTIC:: VEHICLE AND DAY 2x~x awvc xV 3 12 24 40 76 50 .... -,- ..1, 2~5 ,t;. .. J ':) 17,781 71.,:'.25 142,,250 237.084 459,460 100 9, ;~~: .~. 2.78 , 38,70 154,974 309,948 516,580 981,501 J/SO 13,937 2.78 19, 58,:17 232,469 464,938 774,897 1,472,305 :?JO D,760 2.89 28,652,00 85,956 343,824 687,648 1,146,080 2,177,552 c. . . , 24,700 " ...... ~ :::; 3:-:,815.00 107,445 429,780 859,560 1,432,600 2,721,940 I 300 29,6~0 2.89 42,.978~OO 128,934 515,736 1,031.472 1,719,120 3,266,328 ~ iI:»o 350 34,580 2.89 00 50,J.41~ 150,423 601,692 1,203,384 2,005,640 3,810,716 U1 400 I 43~556 3.:;"0 57,511.80 202,535 810,142 1.620,283 2,700,472 5,130,897 450 49,00:;' 3.10 75, :J:J 227,855 911,419 1.822,837 3 / 038,062 5,772,318 500 5:1,4",5 3.10 84 ,389~ 75 253,169 1,012,677 2,025,354 3,375,590 6,413,621 550 59.890 3.10 92,829.50 278,489 .1,113,954 2,227,908 3,713,180 7,055,042 600 65,334 3.10 1:J1,267.70 303,803 1,215,212 2;430,425 4,050,708 7,696,343 650 70,779 3.10 109, 7J7, 45 329,122 1,316,489 2,532,979 4.388,298 8,337,766 700 76,223 3.1C 115,145.65 354,431 1 / 417,748 2,835,4% 4 p 725,826 8,979,069 750 81.,668 3.1.0 . 4.0 379;i56 1,519,025 3,038.050 5,063,416 9,620}490 800 6J,856 2.64 92,209.92 276,630 1,106,519 2.,213,038 3,688,397 7,007,954 8S;) 74,2.22 2, 97 .. 973,04 293,919 1, ,676 2,351,353 3.918,922 7,445,951 900 78.588 2.64 103 t 736.15 311,208 1,244,834 2,489,668 4,149,446 7,883,948 950 82,954 2.64 109,499.28 328,498 1,313,991 2 / 627,983 4.379,971 8.321,945 1,000 87.320 2,64 115 .. 262.40 345,787 1,383, 149 2,766.298 4,610,496 8,759,942  Table IlF-5 PASSENGER TIME COSTS DUE TO DELAYS OF 10 TO 24 HOURS - YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) PASSENGERS VAWE OF NUMBER OF INTERRUPTIONS PER YEAR ADT PER DAY TIME 8 x awt x E~d ~ 12 24 40 76 50 375 5.9 17)0700 53,100 212,400 424,800 708,000 1,345,,200 100 790 6.2 391>184 117,552 470.208 940,416 1,,567,360 2,977,984 150 1,185 6.2 58 .. 776 176,32J 705,312 1,410,624 2,351,040 4,466,976 200 1,660 6.2 82.336 247 pOO8 988,032 1,~76J064 3,293,440 6,257,536 250 2.075 6.2 102" 920 308,760 1 , 235,040 2,470,080 4,116)800 7,821,920 300 2,490 6.2 123.504 370,512 1,482,048 2,964,0::;6 4"1 940 ,160 9,386~304 I 350 2,905 6.2 144,088 432,264 1,729,056 3,458.112 5,763,520 10,950,688 "'"" 400 4,400 5.9 207,680 623,040 2 .. 492,160 4,984,320 8,307,200 15.783,68Q "' Cl'I I 450 4,950 5.9 2331'640 700,920 2,803,680 5,607,360 9,345 , 600 17,756,640 500 5,500 5.9 2591'600 7i8,80C 3.115,200 6,230,400 10,364 , °00 19,729,600 550 6,050 5.9 285,560 856,630 3,426,720 6,853,440 11,422,400 211'702,560 600 6,600 5.9 311. 520 934,560 3,738,240 7 , 476 , 4 80 1 2 I 4 6 0·, 8 0 0 23 • 67 5 , 5 20 650 7,150 5.9. 337,480 1,012.440 4,049~760 8,099,520 13,499,200 25,648,480 700 7,700 5.9 363,440 1,090,320 4,361,280 8,722,360 14,537,600 27,621,440 750 8,250 5.9 389.400 1,168,200 4,G72,500 9,345,600 15,576,000 29,594,400 800 6,960 6.7 373,.056 1,119,168 4,476,672 8,953,344 14.922,240 28,352,235 850 7,395 6.7 396,372 1,189,116 4,756,464 9,512,928 15,854,880 30,124,272 900 7,830 6.7 419.688 1,259,064 5,036,256 10,072,512 16,787 J 520 3~,895,288 950 8,265 6.7 443,004 1,329,012 5,316,048 10,632,096 17,720,160 33 J 668,304 1,000 8,700 6.7 466,320 1,398,960 5p5S5~840 11,1S1~6eC 13,652,,800 35.~40,320 •• • j ~ 4 • • • • • ~ • ~ ~ • • ~ •• • ~ • • ~ • • j •• • ~ • ~ • j • •  Table 11F-6 COSTS OF TIME FOR FREIGHT DUE TO DELAYS BETWEEN 10 AND 24 HOURS-YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) COST OF ONE NUMBER OF INTERRUPTIONS PER YEAR ADT DAY OF DEJ.,AY 3 12 24 40 76 50 8S;;) 2,625 10,740 21,4.80 35.,800 68,020 108 2,000 6,000 24,000 48,000 80,000 152,000 150 3,000 9,000 36,000 72,000 120,000 228,000 200 4,500 ·1':> _..J J c:.r.:) ~v· 54,OjO 103,000 180,000 342,000 I 250 5,625 16,875 67,500 135,000 225,000 427,500 ~ ~ 300 0,750 20,250 81,000 162,000 270,000 513,000 ~ 350 7.875 23,625 99,5;)0 189,000 315,000 598,500 I 400 8!J400 25,200 100,800 201,600 336,000 638,400 450 9.450 28,350 113,4.00 226,800 378,000 718,200 500 10,500 31,300 126,000 252,000 420,000 798,000 550 11,550 34,650 138,600 277,200 462,000 877,800 600 12,600 37,800 151,200 302,400 504,000 957,600 650 13,650 40,950 163,800 327,600 546,000 1,037,400 700 14,700 4<1.100 176,400 352,800 588,000 1,117,200 750 15.750 47,250 189,000 378,000 630,000 1,197,000 800 11,680 35,040 14°.1 160 280 t 320 467,200 887,680 850 12.,410 37,230 148,920 297,840 496,400 943,160 900 13,140 39,4.20 157,6HO 315,360 595,600 998,640 950 13.870 41,610 166,440 332,880 554,,800 1,054_120 1.,000 14,600 43,800 175,200 350,400 584,000 1,109/600  Table 11F-7 TOTAL COSTS DUE TO DELAYS BETWEEN 10 AND 24 HOURS-YEAR 1985 (1977 pesos) NUMBER OF INTERRUPTIONS PER YEAR ADT 3 12 24 40 76 -- 50 73.1 566 294,255 588,530 980,884 1,872,680 100 162,295 6 9,182 1 .. 298,364 2,163,940 4,111,485 150 243,445 973,781 :t , 9 4 7 , 5.5 2 3,245,937 6,167,281 200 346,464 1,385,656 2,771,712 4.1 619 ,520 8,777,,088 I ,j:>. 250 433,080 1,732,320 3,464,6·10 5,774,400 10,971,360 ,j:>. 00 300 519,696 2,078~784 4, 7,5:68 6 .. 929.1 280 13,165,632 I 350 606,312 2,425,21::8 4,850,496 8,084,160 15,359,904 400 850,775 3.403,102 6,806,203 11,343,672 . 21,552,977 450 957,125 3,828, -199 7,656,997 12,761,662 24;247,158 500 1,063,,469 4,253,877 8,507,754 14,179,590 26,941,221 550 1,169 .. 819 4,679,274 9,358,548 15 1 597,580 29,635,402 600 1,276,163 5.104,65:2 10,209,305 17,015,508 32,329,465 650 1,382,512 5,530,049 11,060,099 18,433,498 35,023,646 700 1,488,857 5,955,(28 11,910,856 19,851,426 37,717,709 750 1,595,206 6,380.,825 12,76:!..,650 21,269,416 40,411,890 800 1,430,838 5,723,351 11,446,702 19,077,837 36,247,890 850 1,520,265 6\081,060 12,162,121 20,270,202 38,513.,383 900 1,609,692 6.438,770 12,577,540 21,532,566 40,778,876 950 1,699,120 6,796,479 .j, ;;;,(..,.., 1" 5('1'" ('.59 22,654,931 43,044,369 1,000 1,788,547 7,154,189 14,308,378 23,847,296 45,309,862 ,..,;!j ,Ji ~,Oj ... iiI ..... ~,. • ~ 4 ~ • • • • ~ • ~ J!! :1/ ,t • ~ ~ , • •• t *  The following values were taken of the passenger time: Light vehicles 12 $b/hr Buses 5 $b/hr Trucks 4 $b/hr. It was considered 8 hours of economic value that a passenger loses in a day. The time costs for freight were calculated with the following formula: C f = 8 x tpd Where: C = Time costs for freight tPd = Tons per day. The average cost for a one-day delay to 1 ton of freight was taken as 8 $b/ton-day. This figure is an average of 4 $b/ton and 15 $b/ton for agricultural and non-agricultural products respectively. To obtain the tpd, the following values were used for the load factor and average load: LOAD FACTOR AVERAGE CAPACITY Small truck 0.27 4 tons Medium truck 0.34 8 tons Large truck 0.48 12 tons. Bridge Project Screening As mentioned above, information on interruptions was taken from the bridge survey carried out by the National Transport Study and also from the "Socio-economic Studies Report" of the "National Bridge Program" (2) carried out by the Planning Department of SNC. SNC evaluated the economic feasibility of 19 bridges located in seven road sections throughout the country. In general, the duration of the interruptions considered by SNC is greater than that registered by the Study survey. (2) Pro rama Nacional de Puentes. Estudios Socio-econ6micos. (National Bridge Program. Soc1o-economic Studies National Road Service (SNC). Ministry of Transport, Communications and Civil Aeronautics. La Paz, August 1980. -449-  In a first stage of the bridge analysis, several road III sections were chosen to analyze the feasibility of bridge provision. The economic feasibility of bridges was evaluated independently of other improvements. In the analysis, penetration roads and completely new road links, where bridges are considered as part of the construction, and links where the interruptions are due to other causes than lack of bridges (such as slides and floodings), were not considered. Figure 11F-1 illustrates the selection of road sections for the bridge analysis. Using the delay cost tables presented earlier, bridge projects were screened to eliminate road sections with very low traffic or with minimal interruptions. The following road sections were subsequently removed from further analysis: • Caracollo-Tambo Quemado • Oruro-Caihuasi • Challapata-Uyuni • Uyuni-Tupiza • Cuchu Ingenio-Mojo • Potos!-Uyuni • Aiquile-Palizada • Vallegrande-Ipitg The section San Borja-San Ignacio-Trinidad is treated separately from this analysis in Chapter 12. ." Bridge Evaluation Procedure The bridges in the road sections selected were evaluated by comparing the operating cost savings due to a bridge (extracted from the relevant delay cost table) with the bridge investment required. It was assumed that the interruption magnitudes obtained from either the NTS or the SNC surveys apply to all the rivers in the section under evaluation. That is to say, it is necessary to construct all the bridges of the section considered to eliminate the recorded interruption. First year rates of return were calculated for each set of bridges and these are shown in Table llF-8. -450-  LE GEND Highways Selected o 0\..tlCA,. '.t l \ j t- \~< R Elp lJ 'B L\I C A \"" . -' A R' G IE N T I' ]'\ A .- ', HIGHWAYS SELECTED FOR ANALISIS OF BRIDGES Wdbul' Smith and ..A~ociatej FIG URE II F - I  Table 11"-8 LIST 0.1' JUS'l'I.fIED BRIOGES FOR 1989 IlA'lE (Ji' plQ3Fcr ~ 1989 RE'ruRN ~ NAME RIVER Iml'I'!I WIIml 1989 COST II!\GNI'I1:lOE '1'IV\FI'IC '10 1989 """"liiil" ""liiJ (1977 pesos) "TvPil (percent) 723 V1l1...,ntea-Yacu1l>a Ib_ 10 10 1,31',000 40 per -"" of 31;9 45.9 Yaquacua 20 9 2.076,000 8 hwra 'llltarenda 15 10 1.978.000 BuriAl 30 9 3.114.000 Panantea IS 10 1.978.000 cur...... del Diablo 8 10 1,055,000 Solitral & 10 1.055.000 Caiza 10 10 1.319.000 Pe.lmar 0l1c:0 30 9 3,114,000 146 17,008.000 634 Mochacamarca-ol4l.lapIIta Pazn.. (1) 60 7.9 9.353,809 10 per -"" of 920 26.3 Coat am mognitu:!e of tile interruption III.wlcone (1) 30 7.9 3,984,000 4& I<lurI (SIC) _(1) ~ 7.9 6,917.000 ISO 20,254,809 617 RIo Se<x>-IleM<j\.1OdeI:1:> PaIlina (1) 80 7.3 7.820.000 15 per -"" of 393 16.8 'IheIIe """ tile bridges propoe<rl by SIC. C&tari (1) 60 7.3 6.256.000 48 I<lurI 'lbol.r 1ftII9tl1tu:le of IntlernJption .... Q>oqul.ra (1) 51.4 7.3 5,396,000 aOopted. ChUla (1) ..!i:..!. 7.3 5,474,000 237.8 24,946.000 731 santa Cruz-ibyuJ.be seco 150 8.3 37.085,000 40 per -"" of 286 7.6 'lbo b1zdge """" tile R!o Grande 15 rot QIeYO W- 8.3 49,446.000 24 I<lurI """"_. 350 86.531.000 710 Socre-Pad1l1a Tabla cruz 15 10 2.635.000 8 per -"" of 135 10.0 _ . bridge .....:L:l aolve tile problem 6IDun of interrupt10ns beboeen Sucre am IWoi\ez. 653 CalMr<p-ltmltas Soladlllo 15 10 2,109,000 16 per year of 293 8.2 Part of tile l'otos!-'ltlI1atas project. Villa Abecia 18 9 1.993.000 6 I<lurI V1l1a Abecla 30 9 3.321,000 El Ranch:> 15 10 2.109.000 Vlv1cha l:U>brada _ 15 10 2.109.000 15 10 2,109.000 Oropeza 10 10 1,406,000 Santa _ a ...!! 9 ~ 136 17.149,000 633 Machocamarca-{lnc!a Pa1NrBni (11 100 7.3 11,560,000 16 per -"" of 360 U.1 l'ainmuIi bridge an! lntlernJption Cebada MIIj'U 35 8.3 3,918,000 24 bour. 1\\Il<l!litu:!e taken fron !iN:'s data. Vlluyo 35 8.3 3.918,000 1>qua.a caliente. 35 8.3 3.918,000 Vent1lla ~ 8.3 8,395,000 280 31.709,000 690 Qul11acollo-l:ndepenOencla San M1quel 20 9.0 2.768.000 32 per -"" of 94 11.4 Morochata 30 9.0 4,151,000 8 to U lDura Punacach.1 ~ 8.3 5,594,000 90 12,513.000 730 Mlltaral-VaIlegrande Chao::o (1) 26 2,053,000 10 per -"" of 105 11.0 PI:opoood bridges by !iN:. Interrupt10n LaC:u!nego. (1) !!t(2) 3,053,000 36 boura IIBgn1tu:!e of SIC. 66 5,106,000 713 1byuJ.be-v1llalrontea 'lll191l"t1 IS 10 2,635.000 16 per year of 45S 18.4 In tile Mae:haret! r1""" lntlernJption 'l'orairt 15 10 2,635,000 12 bour. lftII9tl1tu:les are 40 t.1l!B$ per year of Csnatind1 20 9 2,768,000 48 b;Jurs of duration. Mochareti 40 8.3 5,594.000 Ipa 15 10 2,635.000 T1gu1po 15 10 2,635,000 Ca1hua ..1.Q. 9 4,151,000 651 I'otos!~ - ltljona l'yaM ().lel:ada _ Charx;hajlll 0laiiarmaj'U 150 15 25 15 20 25 20 10 9 10 9 9 9 23.053.000 2,109.000 2,768 , 000 2,109,000 2,214.000 2.768,000 2,214,000 16 per -"" of 6 bours 254' •. 5 A ..:t1Dn of the l'otos!-'l!:mltas project arlo 20 9 2,214 ,000 So.rcarca 10 9 3,121,000 V1i\a VIeja 15 10 2,109,000 V01~ 15 10 2,109,000 La 'Ibrre ..l2. 9 2,768,000 225 26,703,000 C<mnit. Puerto 1Iszle9aa-5an Rontln san Jul1.!n (1) 74 9.2 6,560,000 5 per -"" of 409 17.6 Bridge propoe<rl by SIC. ProjECt 3 days 694 q>1zana-5lx:re Chlqu1~(1) 120 7,336,000 12 per year of 166 9.1 SIC's bridges. M::lctulo (1) ..!!1. 4,457,000 18 I<lurI 180 11,793.000 656 I'otoet-'larapaya Tar_ys (1) 40 8.3 4,477,000 Il:Jt lMl1lab1e 578 623 patacamaya Puerto Patacamaya 30 9.0 3,738,000 16 per year 175 0.7 Bridges of the f ina1 Japones of 3 hours design done by IU Without Name 30 9.0 3,738.000 Wi thoutName 30 9.0 3,738.000 Without Name . 30 9.0 3,738.000 Without Name 30 9.0 3,738.000 Without Name 10 10.0 1,582.000 Without Name 10 10.0 1,582.000 Without Name 20 9.0 2,492.000 Without Name 15 10.0 2,373.000 26, 7l9.01l0 205 630 Puerto Japones - Sullom2 25 9.0 2,768,000 16 per year 166 1.8 Tambo Quemado Culta 20 9.0 2,214.000 of three hours Tumarapi 20 9.0 2,214,000 Sajama 20 9.0 2.214,000 (1) SNC's brldges as 9#410,000 -451- (2) Assumed value  In Table 11F-8, 29 bridges totalling 1,038 meters, reach a rate of return for the first year greater or equal to 12 percent and another 18 bridges can be justified, totalling 837 meters, if a first year rate of return of 8 percent is 'W considered acceptable. The following observations are made on the results shown in Table 11F-8 •. In the R!o Seco-Desaguadero project, the four bridges proposed by the SNC were evaluated, of which only two were identified by this Study. '•. The SNC proposes only one bridge in the Machacamarca- Unc!a section although this Study identified 4 additional bridges. Taking into account the interruptions considered by SNC, it is possible to justify all the bridges identified by this Study. For the Epizana-Sucre section, SNC identified two of thirteen bridges identified by this Study. The rate of return estimated for the year 1989 for these two bridges, considering the interruptions of SNC, is of the order of 9.1 percent. SNC justified these two bridges with an internal rate of • return of 19.5 percent. ''II Two bridges in the Mataral-Vallegrande section have been evaluated by SNC, out of three identified by this Study. The third bridge is an existing one which is not considered in Table 11F-8. Bridge Replacement SNC have prepared a list of bridges requiring replacement due to low weight restrictions and narrow widths. These are shown in Table 1IF-9. -452-  Table 111"-9 EXISTING BRIDGES REQUIRING REPLACEMENT No. NAME ROUTE STRUCTURAL TYPE LENGTH (meters) 1 Kekll Crossing Roads 1 and 2 Puerto Acosta Girder 41.60 2 Choro Road 3 La Paz to Sta. Ana de Huachi Girder (Wood) 26.10 3 Quita Calz6n Road 3 La Paz to Sta. Ana de Huachi Girder 25.00 4 Anasani Crossing Unduavi to La Plazuela Stone Arch 6.20 5 Villa Crossing Unduavi to La Plazuela Girder 28.50 6 Huariscallo Crossing Unduavi to La Plazuela Girder 20.00 7 Desaguadero Krn 93.92 Viacha crossing RoadBll0-112 Suspension 52.00 8 Grande Krn 22.33 Taraco to Tiahuanacu Girder lS.60 9 Tamampaya Crossing Choquechaca to Choquechaca Girder 30.00 10 Coroico Crossing Suapi to Suapi Girder 30.60 11 Coroico Crossing Incahuara to Incahuara Girder 36.80 12 Desaguadero San Andr!!!s to Ballivi:!n Station Beam 34.00 13 Krn 133.86 Epizana to Potosi Girder 19.00 14 Km 134.70 Epizana to Potosi Girder 57.10 15 Krn 135.90 Epizana to Potosi Girder 19.00 16 Grande Epizana to Potosi Prestressed Concrete 133.90 17 Grande Sucre to Boyuibe Girder 31.00 18 Arquillos Sucre to Boyuibe Girder 30.00 19 Mizque Crossing RoadsS-51 to La Palizada Girder 55.50 20 Chico San Juan Potosi to Tarija Girder 30.50 21 San Juan del Oro Potosi to Tarija Suspension 93.50 22 Santa B:!rbara Potosi to Tarija Girder 19.10 23 Santa Ana Crossing Roadsl-8 to Villamontes Girder 28.00 24 Serer!!! Crossing RoadBl-S to Villamontes Girder 17.50 25 Cafiadas Crossing Roadsl-S to Villamontes Girder 18.40 26 Chico San Pedro to Culpina Girder 50.00 27 San Lorenzito Santa B:!rbara to Canasmoro Girder 10.00 28 Guadalquivir Crossing Concepci6n to Padcaya Girder 77 .40 29 Parapet! Krn 461.S6 Sucre to Boyuibe Girder 59.30 30 Kuri Crossing Road 4101 to Aiquile Girder 18.90 31 Krn 122.70 Crossing Roadsl-12 to La Plazuela Girder 18.40 32 Yocalla Oruro-Potos! Arch 15.00 33 Turnusla Cuchu Ingenio to Hornillos Metal Beam 96.00 34 Mataca Padcoyo to Sijllani Suspension 80.00 TOTAL 1,326.90  APPENDIX 11G THE RIO SECO-DESAGUADERO HIGHWAY  Appendix IIG THE RIO SECO-DESAGUADERO HIGHWAY CONTENTS The Existing Rfo Seco-Desaguadero Highway 455 Traffic volumes . 455 Possible Improvement Projects 457 Comment on Project Costs 458 Comment on Design Standards 459 Conclusions 460 TABLE Number 11G-1 Rfo Seco-Desaguadero Highway Traffic Trends 456 and Projections -454-  Appendix ~1G THE RIO SECO - DESAGUADERO HIGHWAY The study recommends betterment for the Rio Seco - Desaguadero highway (see Chapters 11 and .15), which is a relatively low cost improvement with a 6-meter pavement. In contrast, previous studies have recommended more expensive projects to higher levels of design. This appendix looks at the issues involved. The Existi'ng Rfo Seco-Des'agua'd'ero' Highway The following description is based on the SNC Inventory of this route. The highway is 98 km long running through mostly flat terrain, but with just over 9 km classified as undulating. The surface is gravel, side slopes are stable and the soil type is good (CBR assessed as 40 percent). Alignment - The alignment is generally good with 67 km classified as flat and straight (the best possible) and a further 15 km as flat but with some curves which affect speeds. Only 13 km are classified as sinuous alignment, of which 6 km are located in a steeply aligned section just east of Pucara. 87 percent of the road has adequate passing sight distance. The road width is also good with only 3 km less than 7 meters, and with 9 km reaching 9-meter width. Surface - The gravel surface is in extremely poor condition. The problem is that oversized gravel is used, sometimes contain- ing large stones, so that a good surface cannot be obtained, even wfthfrequent grading. Truckers have complained about the poor surface which accelerates the deterioration of their vehicles: they also note that grading operations seem to make little dif- ference to surface quality. Traffic Volum:es past traffic volumes together with traffic forecasts, are shown in Table 1.1G-1.Values' are shown for each section of the highway, and as a weighted average for the entire route. Traffic volumes are currently very low, reachihg 235 average daily traffic (ADT) in .1980 (average of nine mOhths' counts by , $Nct. Growth in traffic has not been high over recent years, averaging 7 .. 4 percent per year from 1961, but only 3.8 percent per year from .1972. This also reflects an apparent decline in traffic over the last three years. -455-  .. \II • iii Table 11G-1 ''II RIO SECO - DESAGUADERO HIGffi'lJ\Y TRAFFIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS (1\nnual Average Daily Traffic) RIO SECO LAJA TIAHUANACU GUAQUI· '-! YEAR LAJA' TTAHUANACU . GUAgUI DESAGUADERO AVERAGE (1) (20km)" (35 km1 (20 km) (23 kmJ !'i- 1967 Tr'affi'c CoUh'ts ~50 90 80 60 93 .. 1969 270 160 80 60 143 ;,. 1970 220 160 ~20 80 145 1971 252 154 142 140 168 III' 1972 257 160 148 145 174 1973 250 160 150 140 172 1974 308 164 155 142 186 1975 286 167 27~ 142 207 'I\' 1976 224 189 262 156 203 I/; 1977(2) 260 191 295 155 218 1978 (3) (6) 365 (7) 278 310 236 292 It 1979 (4) (6) 370(7) 249 220 190 253 1980 (5) (6) 373 193 227 187 235 .. SNC Projections \!I 1980 398 293 452 238 334 (23Sr8) "' 1989 707 520 802 422 593 (417 8) 1999 1,370 1,007 1,555 817 1,149 (808 <I Stud:r: Projections 1977 276 232(9) 261 (10) 183 240 ~ 1989 434 370(9) 408 (10) 292 378 1999 605 575(9) 621(10) 434 563 <Ii (11 Average for route, weighted by length. (2) Estiinates by SNC.· . (3} Based on seven to eight months manual counts. (41 Based on manual counts - number of months uncertain. (51 Based on eight to nine months manual counts. (61 All 16-hour counts adjusted to 24 hours by factor of 1.062 (7) Adjusted by SNC from high counts, clearly taken in a different location to other years. (8) Values adjusted in relation! Count ~980/SNC estimate 1980. (9) Refers to Laja-pucara .(21 kml. (10) Refers to Pucara-Guaqui (34 km}. SOURCE: 11 SNC count data 2} Pro<;1rama Nacional deP'u'entes, (National Bridge Program), Socio Economic Studies Volume I, PlanniIl.9' Department of the National Road Service (SNC), La Paz, August 1980. -456-  According to SNC,(1) traffic is expected to grow to about 600 AnT by 1989 and 1,150 AnT by 1999. This represents a growth rate of from 6 to 7 percent per year. However, the . 1980 projection is about 40 percent high compared with 1980 counts. Adjusting the SNC projection in this ratio produces revised forecasts of about 420 and 800 ADT for 1989 and 1999 respectively(with the same growth rate as before). The Study forecasts are lower, reaching only 380 ADT and 560 ADT in 1989 and 1999 respectively, about 10 percent and 30 percent below the SNC modified forecasts for the years 1989 and 1999 respectively. This is partly because a comparatively low growth rate in local traffic was calculated using the computer transport model, and because it is assumed that some international traffic will transfer to rail when the Guaqui- Puno line is completed. None of the flows can be considered high. Even the volume on the busiest link in the optimistic forecast of SNC for 1999, represents a flow of only about 100 vehicles per hour on average, with a peak of probably less than three vehicles per minute. According to the Study forecasts for the busiest link, peak volumes would average about one vehicle per minute in 1999. Possible Improvement Projects Four basic projects can be defined: 1) Major gravelling 2) SNC/SOINCO project 3) New road 4} Betterment now, new road later. (All costs given below are in 1977 pesos). Major gravelling consists of improving all the necessary small drainage structures, and then placing and compacting a surface of 15 cm of selected or crushed materials. This would bring about a dramatic improvement in driving quality, and would cost about $b 43 million. Maintenance thereafter would be considerably easier than maintenance of the existing surface. Such a project could be justified immediately. . The SNc/sOINCO project is for a 96 kID road, making use of the existing alignment. Road platform width would be 10 meters and the cost of the project is estimated at about $b 400 million. If the pos.sibilities for betterment (see below) are ignored, this project could be justified for the mid-80s. ·fl) Proc;rama Nacional de Puentes, (National Bridge Program) Soc~o tconom~c studies Volume I, Planning Department of the National Road Service (SNC), La Paz, August 1980. -457-  '. A project for a completely new 96 kIn road was prepared in 1976 by Prudencio Claros-Delcanda, and costs are estimated at about $b 630 million. A project of this cost could not be . justified economically until the 1990s. The project of betterment (see Chapter 111, to be followed by a new road, is reconunended by this Study. Betterment emphasizes the improvement of the surface by construction of drainage structures and paving. At current and projected traffic volumes, major improvements to alignment are not worthwhile. Costs of betterment are estimated at $b 109 million, plus $b 25 million for four new bridges. Benefits are high, giving a 34 percent rate of return on the betterment and 18 percent for the bridges. In other words, the cost of the project will be "repaid" in lower vehicle operating cost benefits in 3-4 years. Once volumes reach about 1,000 ADT, a new road could be justified, but even on the optimistic SNC forecasts, this will not for '. about another eighteen years. In the interim period, surface dressing could be required every 5-6 years (in addition to . routine patching} at a cost each time of $b 30 million, in order to re-seal and strengthen the surface. It can be noted that these costs, although very low, are likely to be an over-estimate. Most of the cost is in the new surface, and it is very possible that a new subbase could be omitted relying instead on the, gravel in the eXisting road ,. bed, which is classified with a high CBR (see earlier). Also, probably less drainage structures are required for this road than most others. If betterment were considered to 9 meters overall width with a 7 meter pavement, costs would rise from $b 109 million to $b 139 million, a 27 percent increase. However, this extra width is not considered necessary and would mean postponement of improvements elsewhere in the transport system. Although the project for betterment could be justified inunediately,due to budget limits and also the need to prepare a final design, the project is reconunended for construction starting in 1984. ~, comment 'on project Cos'ts Total cost and cost per kIn for each project are listed below, and are then compared with some other recent highway costs Call in ~977 pesos]: -458-  TOTAL COST COST Factor 1977 PER . PROJECT ,.Y e a r C O s t t o 1 9 7 7 C O s t KM ---...;........;.....------ ------------ HIGHWAYLE NGrH (lan) --- --- -- - ($b mn.) Rto SeCO-Desaguadero Major gravelling (ElT) 98 1977 43 1.0 43 0.4 SNC/SOINCO 96 1979 500 0.8 400 4.2 Pru:'iencio Claros-De1canda 96 1976 560 1.12 630 6.6 Bettenrent (Err) 98 1977 134 1.0 134 1.4 Rto seco-Huarina New Road 57 1975 41 1.3 53 0.9 Huarina-Tiquina New Road 37 1977 110 1.0 110 3.0 Oruro-Vinto-Ma.chacamarca New Pead 33 1974 43 1.4 60 1.8 La Paz-Ol::Uro New Road 189(1} 1970 104 3.6 375 2.0 (1) Not the entire route some sections near Oruro and La Paz were completed in advance of the project quoted here. The costs for both the SNC/SOINCO project and the Prudencio Claros-Delcanda designs, seem to be very high. It has been claimed that the SNC/SOINCO project is similar to betterment, in that it makes use of the existing alignment. If so, it is strange that the estimated costs are more than double those of recent completely new highways through similar terrains. It is even more costly than Huarina-Tiquina, which passes through more difficult terrain. Comment on Design Standards A paved width of six meters is considered perfectly satis- factory for a road with currently only 235 ADT, and which is unlikely to reach 1,000 ADT before the end of the century (see Appendix llC on design standards). This is the pavement width to which Santa Cruz-Siberia (on the Cochabamba-Santa Cruz high- way) is currently being re-constructed by SNC. It is claimed that Rio Seco-Desaguadero requires a greater width (7 meters) since it is a major international highway, but in reality, current and future volumes for at least the next 10 - 20 years do not justify this. -459-  Most of the other betterments proposed by the study are on roads with similar credentials -- Route No.1, the Pan American highway, etc. There are insufficient funds to build major new roads in all these locations, and there does not appear to be any particular reason why RIo Seco-Desaguadero merits special treatment. rt is recognized that there are international treaties on road standards. These, however, are long term objectives and it " cannot be expected that they be complied with immediately. In the case of RIo Seco-Desaguadero, the Study is simply recommending a major upgrading of the existing road until such time that a new road, to full international standards, can be justified and also afforded. The study recommends a betterment project for RIo Seco- Desaguadero in order to improve the current poor driving conditions. A 6-meter pavement is considered sufficient for the current and forecast traffic volumes, but a 7-meter pavement would cost only $b 30 million more. It is recommended that the current SNC/SOINCO plan costing $b 400 million is abandoned. Dmplementation of the SNC/SOINCO project of 96 km would require about half the funds allocated by the Study for the next six years to improve over 1,500 kID of unpaved roads. Phase II is about implementation of the Transport Plan. In reality, there must still be a major element of study and evaluation of alternatives. It is recommended that a more detailed study of the possibilities for betterment be made jointly with SNC in Phase II, preferably as part of a pilot project. This shoUld have a high priority. -460-  APPENDIX 12A ANALYSIS OF NEW PENETRATION AND FEEDER ROADS  Appendix 12A ANALYSIS OF NEW PENETRATION AND FEEDER ROADS CONTENTS The Theoretical Framework 464 Objectives 465 Network Design 466 Design principles 467 Case 1 - No Road 467 Case 2 - Single Penetration Road 467 Case 3 - Penetration Road and one 467 Additional Road Case 4 - Penetration Road and One 468 Feeder Road Case 5 - A Network of Rectangular Feeder 469 Roads Case 6 - A Network of Radial Feeder Roads 475 Case 7 - Semiradial Network of Feeder 477 Roads Case 8 - Alternative Semiradial Network 482 FEEDER ROAD POLICY IN BOLIVIA 484 Removal of Simplifying Assumptions 484 The Cost-price Surplus 484 The Simple Penetration Road 485 Location of Penetration Roads 486 Pattern of Feeder Roads 486 Spacing 486 The Area of Profitable Production 487 Transport Costs 487 Labor 487 Analysis of Potential Agricultural 488 Areas The Penetration Road Projects 489 PENETRATION ROAD EVALUATION CRITERIA 504 Level of Benefits Needed to Justify 505 Road Investment Estimated Level of Profitability at 1977 506 Prices Price Variability 506 Price Prospec.;ts 506 Market Size 506 Labor Intensiveness 507 Capital Intensiveness 507 Climate 507 Isolation 507 Distance from Altiplano and Valleys 508 -461-  'II TABLES Number Page 12A-1 Case Sa. Rectagular Feeder Road Network 471 12A-2 Case 5b. Rectangular Feeder Road Network 472 12A-3 Case 5c. Rectangular Feeder Road Network 473 12A-4 Case 5 Annual Rates of Return 474 12A-5 Operating Costs on Rectangular and Radial 476 Routes 12A-6 Case 7a. Semiradial Feeder Road Network 479 'II 12A-7 Case 7b. Semiradial Feeder Road Network 480 12A-8 Case 7. Annual Rates of Return 481 12A-9 Road Maintenance Costs 492 12A-10 Yields and Unit Production Costs 493 12A-11 Profit Margins for Selected Crops,1977 494 12A-12 Profit Margins for Crops from Pando 495 12A-13 Potential Profit Margins on Beni Beef 496 12A-14 Potential Profit Margin on San Matias Beef 497 12A-15 Potential Profit Margins on Output from 498 Tunas-San Jose Area " 12A-16 Quitunquina-Puerto Suarez: Profit Margins 499 for Different Crops 12A-17 Azurduy-Bermejo: Profit Margins for 500 Different Crops 12A-18 Need for Immigrants 501 12A-19 Migration Between Cities, Urban Settlements 502 and Rural Areas, 1950-76 12A-20 Projected Migration Between Cities, 503 Urban Settlements and Rural Areas FIGURES Follows Number Page 12A-1 Cases 1 and 2 467 12A-2 Case 3 468 12A-3 Case 4 468 12A-4 Case Sa (10 km Spacing) 469 12A-5 Rectangular and Radial Routes 475 12A-6 Case 6 476 12A-7 APPs of Radial and Rectangular Systems 477 12A-8 Case 7 (20 km Spacing) 477 l2A-9 Case 7a 478 12A-10 Case 8a 482 12A-11 Case 8b 482 -462-  Appendix 12A ANALYSIS OF NEW PENETRATION AND FEEDER ROADS This Appendix gives background material on the evaluation of penetration and feeder roads. Extracted from Working Papers 66 and 68, it first presents a theoretical discussion of penetration and feeder roads, followed by a general assess- ment of areas with agricultural potential, which lead to the definition of candidate road projetts to be evaluated by this Study. This is followed by a number of tables summarizing the potential benefits that could be expected from these roads. The Appendix concludes with a presentation of the scoring system used to derive the recommended priorities among the penetration roads studied. -463-  .. • 'III DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF PENETRATION AND FEEDER ROAD NETWORKS In most countries a large part of the road network - more '. than half in terms of length - performs the sole or primary function of serving rural areas. This is especially the case in most developing countries. Yet there remain enormous areas of the world, as in Bolivia, where such roads do not exist, or only sparsely, and then often in extremely poor condition. Road building in such areas is intended, not so much to improve travelling conditions for the traffic that already exists, if any, but to make modern road transport feasible and hence to remove a major obstacle to the economic development of the area. This section is concerned with the large-scale design and evaluation of new road systems, or networks, in such areas. It is based on the concept of a two-class network. A penetration road, on which two-way traffic can maintain speeds of 50-60 Km!hr., is driven deep into the area and is served at intervals by feeder roads built to a lower standard designed to take much lower volumes of traffic with average speeds of about 30 Km/hr. The first part of this section will be theoretical. The se- cond part will try to interpret the theoretical conclusions in relation to the actual problems of Bolivia. The Theoretical Framework II In order to highlight the general problems of feeder road development, rather than the special problems of any particular area, some simplifying assumptions are made: (a) the area is virgin territory which, in the absence of the roads, has no market value; (b) the penetration road connects the area with a market in which or through which the surplus produce of the area may be sold; (c) expected market prices, i.e. prices payable to pro- ducers or traders at the market, are known for the re- levant commodities; if the new penetration road does not commence at the market itself, but at a point on the road system - or on the rail, river or air system - distant from the market, the value of the commodities at that point may be imputed simply by deducting trans- '. port costs to the market from that point; this adjust- ment is made purely for convenience of presentation; -464-  (d) production costs for each relevant commodity are uniform throughout the area; they include labour costs, whether paid in cash or in kind, and capital depreciation; they do not include any price, rent or tax paid for land because this, if it exists, is not a cost of production but a transfer payment in which some of the value of the land generated by the roadbuilding is extracted from the producer by another party; (e) the expected excess of market price over production cost, per kilo, is the same for all relevant commo- dities; this is not a realistic assumption but is introduced in order to limit the problem to "whether or not to produce", and avoid the complications of "what to produce where". (f) transport costs from point of production to market are paid either directly by the producer or indirect- ly through an equivalent deduction from the price re- ceived at his gate. Objectives The construction of penetration and feeder roads may be motivated by economic, social or political ends. In this theore- tical discussion it is assumed that the aim is purely economic. The objective is to estimate whether the investment in roads is likely to produce a worthwhile economic return. Strictly there are two objectives: first to determine the most profitable way (to the community) of investing given amounts in roads, and se- condly to determine the amount of such investment that will give the maximum return over and above a required minimum rate. The investment cost consists of the construction costs of the roads together with other necessary preliminary expenditure designed to generate the expected future return. This may in- clude specifically agricultural investments such as irrigation schemes or land drainage. It may also include the costs of mov- ing people into the area. It should not include the cost of facilities such as houses, schools and health clinics, if these would have been provided anyway somewhere else. The return on the investment is the annual value of pro- duce sold (at the commencement point of the penetration road) less the production costs and the cost of transport to that pOint. It is assumed that the people working in the area would otherwise have been subsistence farmers. Auto-consumption is therefore not reckoned as additional production and is not in- cluded as a return on investment. At the same time labour ex- pended on production for the market is considered as labour re- moved from subsistence production and is costed at its alter- native value in subsistence farming_ -465- Network Design The motivating factor is the surplus of market prices over production costs (the cost-price surplus). If products can be transported to market at a cost less than this surplus there will be a profit. The farther the point of production is from the market, the greater will be the transport cost and the less the profit. Clearly there will be a boundary beyond which pro- duction is no longer profitable, and this boundary marks the "area of profitable production" (APP). For a given cost-price surplus the size of this area will vary according to the quality of the roads - the better the roads, the larger the area. The shape of the area will depend on the shape or design of the road network. The road network which max~m~zes the APP will evidently be relatively costly, with a high density of high-quality roads, and will probably be unjustifiable as an investment. On the other hand a much cheaper road network, of low quality and low density, will generate a smaller area of profitable production with a lower level of profitability on account of higher trans- port costs both on and off the road. Clearly, in a given situation, there must be an optimal de- sign and quality of road network, which will maximize the net present value of road investment in the area. If w = the cost-price difference, i.e. market price - cost of production in pesos per kg., a = area of profitable production (APP) in sq.kms., '" y = yield, in kgs per sq. km. , ~ T = total cost of transport to market, on and off the roads, R = annual cost of road maintenance, then the annual benefit from the investment is: (wya - T - R) pesos, Given a discount rate of i, the net present value V of road in- vestment I, over a 20 year period, is: 20 -n V= ~ (wya - T - R) (1 + i) - I t n=1 in the simplest case where I takes place in one year and area a is opened up immediately and produces a constant output each year from the first year. The design of the roads affects T, and hence a, and also R and I. The object is to find the net- work design that maximizes V. -466- Design Principles Let M be the commencement point of a new penetration road. All commercial production from the outlying area has to be sold at, or through, M. Transport costs may comprise four elements: C is the cost 1 per Kg-Km on a penetration road, C2 the cost on a feeder road, and C3 the cost off the road. It-:is assumed that the route off the road is always direct by the shortest path to the road which minimizes the total cost of transport to M. There is also a standing charge £, so that transport cost to M is where Xl' X2 and X3 are the distances travelled in Kms. The APP is defined by the line C = w. Case 1 - No Road Without any road all transport is directly cross-country to M. The APP is a semi-circle defined, as in Figure 1, by X3 = w - b. We are not concerned with the area along the C ex~s . t' 3 d to ~ng roa M. Th e APP measures IT (w-b) 2 2 C 2 3 Case 2 - Single Penetration Road As sha!.m in Figure 12A-1, a penetration road is built from M without feeder roads. The APP is defined by w = b + C1 X1 + C3 X3 • Clearly production could extend along the road for a distance w-b Kms. to P. The APP is V-shaped with a base spreading w-b C C 1 3 Kms. on either side of the road, as in Case 1. The APP measures (w-b) 2 C C • 1 3 Case 3 - Penetration Road and One Additional Road Before extending the penetration road as far as P it would be more profitable to build feeder roads opening up areas much closer to M. The most profitable road actually is not a feeder road but another direct connection to M, at right angles to the penetration road. Clearly there could be one on both sides, as -467-  • • in Figure 12A-2. Logically, assuming that these areas are equally undeveloped, it would be more profitable to build three penetra- tion roads (MA, ME, MC) each one-third the length of MP in Figure 12A-1. The APP measures approximately: which is much larger than in Case 2 and has a higher average profitability since average costs to market are less. Case 4 - Penetration Road and One Feeder Road We shall now assume that the main direction of intended de- velopment is along the initial penetration road but that there is also a road of feeder road standard joining the penetration road at right angles at M. It is clearly not a feeder road and will be called the base lateral road, We now consider the introduction of a feeder road. A feeder road serves two purposes: (1) to increase the APP, and (2) to reduce transport costs from areas already in the APP. The most profitable location for a single feeder road will de- pend on the value of C (off-the-road costs). The higher is 3 C 3 ' the smaller will be the APP produced by the penetration road and the greater will be the relative impact of a feeder road in increasing the APP. In Figure 12A-3 two positions are shown (left and right of the penetration road). It is evident that the road on the left, AB, is the maximum feasible distance from M. Any road farther away from M, like CD, would obviously entail higher transport costs for the whole area that it opened up, which area , would be smaller than that opened up by AB. • A road closer to M would involve some overlapping or dupli- cation of APP. There is little advantage in this overlapping, • unless it is substantial, because the overlapped areas lie near the edge of both areas; in other words they are almost equally • poorly served by the two roads to which they have access. The advantage of locating the feeder road closer to M is that it opens up an area closer to M with lower average transport costs; but because of overlapping the addition to APP may be smaller. • The optimal solution to this problem must depend on the particular situation, especially on the values of C 3 (off-road costs) and y (yield per sq.Km.). In Figure 12A-3 if is assumed that C = 4C 2 = 8C , 3 1 -468-  Existing Road Network M x 3 = LE ND Area of Profitable Production without rood. Area of Profitable Production of penetration road. Penetration Road CASES I and 2 FIGURE 12A-1  Existlno Rood Network Penetration Rood Roods LEGEND .. APP " wtJ." Smith .,.J .A.",,",/., ~- CASE 5 FIG UR E t::!'~ 12 A- 2 . LZ::!iIloAIt~~;  M Penetration Road p CASE 4 FIGURE 12 A-3  Case 5 - A Network of Rectangular Feeder Roads The addition of successive feeder roads involves a repeti- tion of the problem described in Case 4, namely the problem of spacing. Figure 12A-4 shows the APP resulting from a penetration road with rectangular feeder roads at 10 km intervals. In this example, transport costs are taken as follows: C1 = 0.0025 pesos per Kg-KID C2 = 0.005 pesos per Kg-KID C3 = 0.01 pesos per Kg-KID The values for C1 and C2 are taken from Baquero's formulae, * The value C . is an arbitrary with Bolivian prices as at 1977. 3 choice. It represents a terrain where produce can be moved re- latively easily and cheaply along farm tracks created and main- tained by the farm workers themselves. For w (the cost-price difference), a series of values are taken, from 0.1 to 1.0 pesos per Kg. As w increases, the APP increases rapidly. A number of conclusions arise from this example. (1) The values of w considered are small. With market prices at Santa Cruz of around 17 pesos per Kg. for coffee and groundnuts, 10 for soya, between 6 and 12 for meat carcass, 2 1/2 for rice, 2 for maize and 1.7 for yuca, values of w bet- ween 0.1 and 1.0 are relatively small. Given reasonably good conditions for producing such crops, production costs are cer- tainly low enough to make these values of w easily achievable. And yet with these modest values the size of the APP becomes enormous. When w = 0.5 the APP extends nearly 200 Km. along the penetration road and reaches out 90 KID on each side along the top lateral road. The size of this area is about 22,500 sq. KID. (2) For some products, like bananas and sugar cane, with a low price-volume ratio, such a large APP is not feasible. * In order to give more realistic costs for the future, a price of $b 5 per litre has been used. -469-  . ). (3) The road network assumed in this example is rudimen- tary. It consists of a two-lane gravel penetration road and single-lane, earth feeder roads at 10 Km. intervals. The in- vestment in roads is certainly not extravagant but even so it must be shown to be economically justified. (4) An optimistic value was assumed for C (off-road costs). 3 This could be of critical importance. It assumes that, except near the periphery of the APP, farmers will cultivate land up to 5 Km. from a road and will manage to haul their produce to the road by one means or another. Apart from the actual cost of doing this, it implies that rights of way will be established to enable the farmers whose land does not border the road to ob- tain access. It implies, in other words, a new class of public roads, being the crudest form of farm tracks necessary to give access. Whether these tracks would need to take motor vehicles or would be restricted to pedestrians, animals and carts, would depend on local circumstances. Clearly, if feeder roads had to b~ at 5 Km. intervals in order to generate the same APP, investment costs would be nearly doubled, as would road maintenance costs. (5) From an analysis of this kind one can produce a table of essential statistics about the APP, given the values of w, C , C , C and the spacing of feeder roads, for the rectangular 1 2 3 pattern as described. The table shows, for different values of w, the size of the APP, the length of roads required, their capital and maintenance costs, the total transport costs of pro- duce to market (for any value of y) and the gross and net profits thus generated. From these figures can be deduced an annual rate of return on the investment, assuming complete development of the area. It is not possible to deduce an overall rate of return or net present value without introducing major new assumptions about the rate of development over time. Three such tables are shown in Tables 12A-1 to 12A-3 with feeder road spacing of 10 Km., 20 Km., and 40 Km. respectively. The annual rates of return on investIrent are given in Table 12A-4. The tables show that, while a closer spacing leads to a larger APP and a greater profit, the increased profit is relatively small compared with the extra costs of road construction and maintenance. In Tables 12A-1 to 12A-3 the oosts and profits related to the volume of production (i.e columns 5-8) are given as a multiple of ~, the yield per hectare in kilograms. A typical yield is between 1000 and 2000 Kgs. per hectare. Whatever the yield, these figures of cost and profit must be multiplied by the yield. To give a general idea, one may take y = 1000 as a minimum. This assump- tion is employed for Table 12A-4. -470- ,  o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100- 110 I ~, 50 7 8 " 9 ,)0 -,---------W~;t.;. II 10 " II " 12 13 14 150 15 16 17 18 19 200 20 N,B The left-hond side of tli<.! pene!rolio" rood is ide n- tical 10 lhe ril}hl- hand side, CASI :Ie (10 , . . . , ••••• , FIGURE 12A-4  Table 12A-1 CASE 5a. RECTANGULAR FEEDER ROAD NETWORK Characteristics of APP for different values of w (C = 0.0025 C = 0.005 , C = 0.01, spacing = 10 KIn.) 1 2 3 Market price Area of Len9:th of roads Road Road less cost of profitable Gross Transport Net Maintenance Construction production I2roduction PR Feeders Profits Costs Profits Cost + Costs * w APP (000 pesos x y where (pesos/Kg. ) (Sq. KIn) (KIn) y = yield in Kgs./hectare) rnn.pesos 0.1 136 20 30 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.9 55 I 0.2 1,426 60 210 28 22 6 5.2 225 ~ -...] 0.3 4,252 100 550 127 94 33 13 475 I-' I 0.4 8,680 140 1,050 347 251 96 25 805 0.5 14,706 180 1,710 735 524 211 42 1,215 0.6 22,332 220 2,530 1,340 945 395 63 1,705 0.7 31,558 260 3,510 2,209 1,546 663 89 2,275 0.8 42,384 300 4,650 3,391 2,359 1,032 121 2,925 0.9. 54,810 340 5,950 4,933 3,416 1,517 161 3,655 1.0 68,836 380 7,410 6,884 4,749 2,135 209 4,465 + It was necessary to know traffic volumes in order to estimate road maintenance costs; for this purpose it was assumed that y = 1.000 kgs./ha. * Construction costs taken as: penetration road, $b 2.0 mn. per Km.; feeder road, $b 0.5 mn. per KIn.  Table 121\-2 CASE 5b. RECTANGULAR FEEDER ROAD NETWORK Characteristics of APP for different values of w ec l = 0.0025,C2 = 0.005 , C = 0.01, spacing = 20 Km.) 3 Market price Area of Length of roads Road Road less cost of profitable Gross Transport Net Maintenance Construction production Eroduction PR Feeders Profits Costs Profits Cost + Costs * w APP (Km. ) (000 pesos x y where (pesos/Kg. ) eSq.Km) y = yield in Kgs./hectare) (mn .pesos) 0.1 126 20 20 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.8 50 I "'" -..,J 0.2 1,052 60 12·0 21 16 5 4 180 N I 0.3 3,504 100 300 105 78 27 9 350 0.4 7,556 140 560 302 222 80 16 560 0.5 13,208 180 900 660 478 182 26 810 0.6 20,460 220 1,320 1,228 878 350 40 1,100 0.7 29,312 260 1,820 2,052 1,455 597 59 1,430 0.8 39,864 300 2,400 3,181 2,240 941 82 1,800 0.9 51,816 340 3,060 4,664 3,266 1,398 110 2,210 1.0 65,468 380 3,800 6,547 4,563 1,984 142 2,660 + It was necessary to know traffic volumes in order to estimate road maintenance costs; for this purpose it was assumed that y = 1.000 Kgs./Ha. * Construction costs taken as: penetration road, $b 2.0 mn. per Km.j feeder road, $b 0.5 mn. per Km. ~ ~ . . ~ ~ ... .. ., .. ~. ~ ~ • ~ •• • 4 • ~ • ~ ~ • • • ~ ~ • ~ i • ~ ~ • ~  Table -12A-3 CASE 5c. RECTANGULAR FEEDER ROAD NET~IJORK Characteristics of APr for different values of w (e 1= 0.0025, C2 = 0.005 , C = 0.01, spacing = 40 Kms) 3 Harket price Area of Length of roads Road Road less cost of profitable Gross Transport Net Maintenance Construction production 12roduction PR Feeders Profits Costs Profits Cost + Costs * w APP (000 pesos x y where, (pesos/Kg. ) (Sq. Km) (Km) y = yield in Kgs./hectare) (mn. pesos) 0.1 126 20 20 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.8 50 I 0.2 1,056 60 80 21 16 5 3 160 """ ~ w 0.3 2,760 100 180 83 59 24 6 290 I 0.4 6,064 140 320 242 176 66 10 440 0.5 10,968 180 500 548 399 149 16 610 0.6 17,472 220 720 1,048 758 310 25 800 0.7 25,576 260 980 1,791 1,286 515 36 1,010 0.8 35,280 300 1,280 2,822 2,015 807 52 1,240 0.9 46,584 340 1,620 4,192 2,977 1,215 75 1,490 1.0 59,488 380 2,000 5,949 4,203 1,746 105 1,760 + It was necessary to know traffic volumes in order to estimate road maintenance costs; for this purpose it was assumed that y = 1.000 Kgs./Ha. * Construction costs taken as: penetration road, $b 2.0 mn. per Km.: feeder road, $b 0.5 rnn. per Km.  Table 12A:"'4 CASE 5 ANNUAL RATES OF RETURN (assume y = 1000) Market Price Less Cost of Annual Surplus Road Construction Annual Rate Production Generated Costs of Return w (ron pesos) (mn pesos) % (pesos/Kg) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) J 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 55 50 50 -1. 3 -1.2 -1.4 *" '-.l 0.2 1 1 2 225 180 160 0.4 0.5 1.2 *" I 18 18 475 350 290 4.2 5.1 6.2 0.3 20 0.4 71 62 56 805 560 440 8.8 11.1 12.7 0.5 169 156 133 1,215 810 610 13.9 19.3 21. 8 0.6 332 310 285 1,705 1,100 800 19.5 28.2 35.6 0.7 574 538 479 2,275 1,430 1,010 25.2 37.6 47.4 0.8 911 859 755 2,925 1,800 1,240 31.1 47.7 60.9 0.9 1,356 1,288 1,140 3,655 2,210 1,490 37.1 58.2 76.5 1.0 1,926 1,842 1,641 4,465 2,660 1,760 43.1 69.2 93.2 NB. (a) is Case Sa with 10 Km. spacing; (b) is Case 5b. with 20 Km. spacing and (c) is Case 5c., with 40 Km. spacing. ~. ~ ~ • ~ ~ • ~ 4 • 4 ~ 4 ~ ~ ~ • ~ A • 4 • ~ !J ~ d 1IiI <Ii iii ¢' j t ..  In Table 12A-4 it can be seen that when w is small, 1. e. only 0.1 or 0.2, the rate of return of road investment is very low, but as w increases the rate of return rises very rapidly. The annual surplus is not affected much by the density, i.e. the spacing of feeder roads, because the extra profits generated by closer spacing are partly offset by higher road maintenance costs. When ~ = 0.6, the highest annual surplus comes from the 10 Km. spacing, but the additional surplus of $b 47 mn. (over the 40 KID. spacing) represents only 5 percent on the additional road investment, but the 20 KID. spacing gives 8% on the increment. Clearly these results are critically dependent on the level of off-road costs assumed. No capital or maintenance costs have been included for off-road tracks. If these are taken into ac- count, the 20 KID. spacing is almost certainly preferable to the 40 KID., and the 10 KID. spacing could be preferable to the 20 KID. spacing although this seems unlikely. Case 6 - A Network of Radial Feeder Roads A disadvantage of rectangular road systems is that all traf- fic going to market, except that originating on the penetration road, has to travel along two sides of a triangle rather than di- rectly along the third side. The extent of this disadvantage de- pends on the width of the APP. This is clear from Figure 12A-5, as follows: Distance MO = a KID. Cost of transport along MO = 2.5 pesos/ton. Distance OA = 1a KID. Cost of transport from M to A via 0 = 5.0 '! pesos/ton, while cost of transport along a hypothetical feeder road direct from M to A = 5.59 pesos/ton. In this case the superiority of the penetration road more than offsets the extra distance involved. But at point B, where OB = a, a direct feeder route would be cheaper. This iss~ in Table 12A-5. As one pro- ceeds farther away from the penetration road the disadvantage of the rectangular route becomes progressively greater. On the other hand, as one proceeds farther along the penetra- tion road the advantage of the penetration road obviously increa- ses and the width of the APP diminishes. The form of a pure radial system is shown in Figure 12A-6. A fairly uniform spacing between roads is achieved by means of suc- cessive branching while maintaining as far as possible the radial directions of the roads. -475-  Table 12A-S OPERATING COSTS ON RECTANGULAR AND RADIAL ROUTES (with reference to Figure S) Journey Radial Feeder Route Rectansular Route Via Penetration Road Distance Transport Cost Distance Transport cost Difference (pesos/ton) (pesos/ton) (pesos/ton) MA 1.11Sa S.S9a 1. Sa S.OOa O.S9a MB 1. 414a 7.07a 2.0a 7.S0a -O.43a I MC 1. S03a 9.01a 2.Sa lO.OOa -O.99a :t 0'1 MD 2.236a 11.lSa 3.0a 12.S0a -1. 32a I ME 3.162a lS.Sla 4.0a 17.S0a -1.69a "ill "''II'" ~."." ,. !OIl *" • ~; ;:11 -,," '" ,.. 'Ii "" ,. " 11  -,- 10' t « C\I - I.u c.::: .... ., - :) (!) h.. I-lLI ... 1&1 J 0 I / a:: I ...I / I / I I 0 . - C Q C / I I a:: / 0 -IN I / / "0 <> Q I / 1-0 0 0:: Z I I / ... ., C I I / 0 -IN .,"0 I I I ., I I I IJ.. a:: c /~/~//" 01 0 ...I -IN J , I I I /~ CD ,//// _/1- <It Z I!I~/ , ~ ;:,: iltf("....."" ,," i 0 -IN .. ...,. ... C U 0 1&1 -t - 0·- • a:: .." ......, ,.. '" <~ "0 0 ", Q 0 0:: c: 1 ~ - 0 .- s:: c:; - ... 0 ., -. -..t: -~ ., c: \:}! CL '- ':l ~ -~~. I ~j _.J .... CASE •  One disadvantage of this system is that it fails to con- centrate, or channelize, the traffic, thus providing little reason for upgrading any of the roads above the standards of feeder roads. Hence the APP of such a system does not extend so far as that of the two-class rectangular system. It only extends 62 percent as far as that of the penetration road con- sidered in Case 5. The shape of the APP of a radial system is roughly semi- circular, rather than triangular as in Case 5. It measures slightly less, abut 98 percent of the triangular APP. See Fi- gure 12A-7. The principal drawback of the pure radial system, however, is that is takes more road to cover an equal area with a given maximum spacing. Its semicircular APP can be covered by a rec- tangular system of only 56 percent the length of roads. This occurs because the branching characteristic of the radial sys- tem leads to a large amount of "redundant" accessibility. Case 7 - Semiradial Network of Feeder Roads It is clear from Case 6 that both rectangular and radial systems have fundamental drawbacks; the rectangular system gene- rates journeys much longer and often more costly than the radial system, but the latter uses far more roadway and provides no op- portunity for the economies of scale inherent in a more chan- nelized system. A semiradial system is a hybrid of the two former systems. It is structured round a penetration road but the feeder roads are angled (as in Figure 12A-"8) so as to minimize the combined cost of travelling along the feeder road and penetration road to the market. The optimal angle depends on the ratio of transport costs per Km. on the two roads. Given the costs adopted in this paper the optimal angle is 60 degrees. The angle, however, is not critical. Figure 12A-8 indicates the shape of the semi-radial APP for a spacing of 20 Km. The system has a slight disadvantage in that, because of the angling of the feeder roads, a somewhat greater length of road is needed to cover a given area, with a given maximum spacing, than with the rectangular system. Two calcula- tions were made; one with a rectangular area, the other with a triangular area; in both cases the semiradial system required more road, by 8 percent and 9 percent respectively. Figure UA-8 is based on a value of w = 0.55 and an angle of 45 degrees. The APP was calculated for a number of deSigns, building up to the one shown, as follows: -477-  (1) Penetration road with no other roads: APP = 13,333 Sq.Km. (2) P. R. with base lateral road: APP = 14,290 Sq.KIn. (3 ) P.R. with first radial feeder: APP = 14,514 Sq.KIn. (4) P.R. with base lateral and first feeder: ,APP = 15,490 Sq.KIn. (5) P. R. with base lateral and feeders at APP = 19,200 Sq.Km. 40 KIn. spacing: (6) P.R. with base lateral and feeders at APP = 20,012 Sq.Km. 20 KIn. spacing: (7) P. R. with base lateral and feeders at APP = 20,750 Sq.Km. 10 KIn. spacing: (8) P.R. with base lateral and feeders at APP = 21,000 Sq.KIn. 5 Km. spacing: These figures show that additional feeder roads have re- latively little effect in increasing the APP. What they do is to reduce transport costs within the APP and hence increase the profitability of the area. But this conclusion is critically dependent on the off-road transport costs. If these off-road costs were much higher than the value assumed, the effect of closer spacing would be much greater. In Fiqure 12A-:-9, a serniradial. system is shown with 10 KIn. spac- ing, and the APPs for different values of w (from 0.1 to 0.6) are indicated.' - In Tables 12A-6 and 12A-7, the characteristics of the APP for spacing of 10 Krn. and 20 Km., are qiven. These tables are comparable with Tcibles 12A-1 and 12A-2 for the rectangular system. The serniradial system produces slightly greater net profits for any given value of w, because average transport costs are less and the APP is a bit larger. But road investment is a little higher for a given APP, and road maintenance costs (per area cultivated) are marginally less because of the lower volume of traffic. In Table 12A-8, the annual rates of return on investments are shown, assuming y = 1,000. It can be seen, that, except at low values of ~, high rates of return result. A comparison with Table 12A-4, referring to the rectangular system, shows almost identical rates of return for each value of w. But this is somewhat misleading because the APPs in the semiradial system are more than 11 percent larger than in the rectangular system. -478- fJ) - L11 ~ 5~ t; ~I )- ~ (1)1 G: c ..J ::» CD Z C I- () 1&1 a: Q Z C ..J - til( Q til( G: 40 50 100 Km N.B. Left-hand side 'is identical to right- 150 hand side. w= 0.55 Penetration Road 200 p CA SE 7 (20 _m. spa clno) FIGURE 12A-8  10 20 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 km. w=O.1 50 NB. Rig h t - han d sid eon 1 y . The serrugated edge of the 100 A P Pis sh 0 W non 1y for the APP when w~0.6 I n co 1 cui a tin g the are a of each APP the edge is meas Km tired as a nomber of triangles as expanded below 150 Area ABC=48.7 km 2 . 200 B CASE 7a FIGURE 12A-9  Table 12A-6 CASE 7a. SEMlRADIAL FEEDER ROAD NETWORK Characteristics of APP for different values of w (C 1 = 0.0025, C = 0.005, C 0.01 , Spacing = 10 KID.) 2 Market price Area of Length of roads Road Road less cost of profitable Gross Transport Net Maintenance Construction production .eroduction PR Feeders Profits Costs Profits Cost Costs w APP (000 pesos x y where (pesos/Kg. ) (Sq. KID 1 (KID) y = yield in Kgs./hectare) (ron.pesos) 0.1 186 20 40 1.9 1.6 0.3 1.0 60 I 0.2 1,644 60 261 33 25 8 6 250 "'" ...lJ 1.0 0.3 4,792 100 657 144 105 39 15 529 I 9,722 1,234 389 280 109 28 897 0.4 140 0.5 16,430 180 1,987 822 584 238 47 1,353 0.6 24,920 220 2,919 1,495 1,052 443 71 1,900 0.7 35,186 260 4,030 2,463 1,721 742 99 2,535 0.8 47,236 300 5,319 3,789 2,626 1,163 134 3,259 0.9 61,064 340 6,787 5,496 3,803 1,693 180 4,073 1.0 76,674 380 8,433 7,667 5,286 2,381 232 4,976  Table . 12A-7 CASE 7b. SEMIRADIAL FEEDER ROAD NETWORK Characteristics of APP for different values of w (C 1 =0.0025, C = 0.005, C = 0.01, Spacing = 20 Km.) 2 3 Market price Area of Lensth of roads Road Road less cost of profitable Gross Transport Net Maintenance Construction production production PR Feeders Profits Costs Profits Cost Costs w APP (000 pesos x y where (pesos/Kg. ) (Sq. Km) (Km) y = yield in Kgs./hectare) (ron . pesos) 0.1 161· 20 30 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.9 56 I 0.2 1,218 60 155 24 18 6 5 197 *'" 00 0.3 3,945 100 379 118 88 30 11 390 ? 8,380 140 682 335 245 90 18 621 0.4 0.5 14,685 180 1,086 735 530 205 29 903 0.6 22,773 220 1,564 1,366 977 389 45 1,222 0.7 32,676 260 2,145 2,287 1,619 668 66 1,592 0.8 44,278 300 2,802 3,542 2,493 1,049 90 2,001 0.9 57,685 340 3,561 5,192 3,636 1,556 123 2,460 1.0 72,887 380 4,397 7,289 5,079 2,210 158 2,959 ., iii .i "" .. '" .ii .. 4li .., . i "'j.<i ......... .Ii ilk. "' . . • ic.l . . . . . . . 4.iiI  Table 12A-8 CASE 7. ANNUA'L'RATES OF RETURN (Assume y ::::; ~. 000) Market Price Less Annual Surplus Road Construction Annual Rate Cost of Prod. Generated Costs of Return w (Mn. pesos) (Mn. pesos) % (Pesos/Kg. ) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) Cb) (c) (a) (b) I .t::. 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 60 56 59 -1.2 -1.1 -1.4 co t-' I 0.2 1 1 2 250 197 225 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.3 24 19 23 529 390 488 4.5 4.9 4.7 0.4 81 72 79 897 621 819 9.0 11.6 9.6 0.5 191 176 187 1,353 903 1,235 14.1 19.5 15.1 0.6 372 344 367 1,900 1,222 1,718 19 .. 6 28.1 21.4 0.7 643 602 636 2,535 1,592 2,245 25.4 37.8 28.3 0.8 1,029 959 1,009 3,259 2,001 2,941 31. 6 47.9 34.3 0.9 1,513 1,433 1,501 4,073 2,460 3,679 37.1 58.3 40.8 1,0 2,149 2,052 2,132 4,976 2,959 4,500 43.2 69.3 47.4 NB. (a) and (b) refer to spacing at 10 Km. and 20 Km. respectively. (c) refers to spacing of 10 KID. with same area cultivated as in Case Sa.  II If the two systems are compared for identical APPs (or more accurately, identical areas of cultivation), the semi- radial system shows a better rate of return on road investment, but only slightly. The results are given in columns (c) of 'I, Table 12A-S. For instance, when w = 0.5, the semiradial system gives 15.1 percent, the rectangular system 13.9 percent. Another pOint that needs careful interpretation is the effect of spacing. Table 12A-S, like Table 12A-4, gives higher rates of return on 20 Km. spacing than on 10 Km. spacing. But, pro- vided the rates are high enough, the latter choice is to be preferred. Comparing columns (b) and (c), at w = 0.5, the return on the incremental investment in (c) is only $b 11 mn. on $b 332 mn., i.e. 3.3 percent, which is low; at higher values of w the incremental rate of return reaches 5.5 percent, which is still low. But one must take into account that no allowance has been made for the costs of constructing and maintaining farm tracks. At 20 Km. spacing, these costs would be roughly double the costs at 10 Km. spacing. Also one must recall that tHe assumed operating cost of off-road transport, which was twice the cost on a feeder road, implies a track of reasonable quality which would cost much more to provide in some terrains lI, than in others. The question of optimal spacing is obviously critically dependent upon the nature of the terrain and, in "I particular, the problem of reaching the feeder road during the wet season. Case S - Alternative Semiradial Network It is apparent from both Case 7 and Case 5 that the weak parts of the network are in the outer areas near the base la- teral road. These areas do not benefit from the penetration road; consequently the APP does not extend very far (relatively) 'III from the market. It is also apparent that if the base lateral road, or part of it, were built as a penetration road rather than as a feeder road, the investment might yield a better return than some of the investment at the far end of the eXisting penetration road and its feeders. Case S therefore consists of a penetration road as the base lateral in addition to the original penetration road. This is shown in Figure 12A-10. The comparable form of rectangular sys- ,," tem is shown in Figure 12A-11. An estimate has been made of the APP characteristics of the semiradial network for one case, where w = 0.4. The results are as follows, in comparison with Case 7a. -482-  o - I « N - - ~. a • ., 1.&1 C (.)  r _ - « I - C\I ... o " J ~ o .... Q.. Q.. «  Case 8a case 7a Alternative Semiradial Semiradial Ne~rk Ne~rk w = 0.4 APP (sq.kms) 12,667 9,722 PR (kms.) 420 140 Feeder Roads (kms.) 698 1,234 Gross profits (000 y pesos) 507 389 Transport costs (000 y pesos) 366 280 Road maintenance costs (mn.pesos) 27 28 Annual sw:plus (if y = 1,000) 114 81 Road oonstruction costs (mn. pesos) 1,189 897 Annual rate of return 9.6% 9.6% It can be seen that the advantages and disadvantages of the two network designs exactly balance each other and the re- sulting rate of return is the same for both networks. It fol- lows that for a large development with a high rate of return, say above 10%, the. "alternative" design would be more economic but for a more marginal case the cheaper, single penetration road would be better. -483-  • • FEEDER ROAD POLICY IN BOLIVIA The foregoing pages have been theoretical. Their purpose ''I< was to gain a better understanding of the issues and factors in- volved in the design and evaluation of penetration and feeder roads. An attempt will now be made to draw some practical con- clusions of relevance to the problems facing Bolivia at the pre- sent time. Removal of Simplifying Assumptions The analysis was facilitated by a number of specific as- sumptions outlined earlier. In moving from theory to practice, it is first necessary to remove these simplifications. In fact, most of the assumptions made are quite acceptable in many parts of BoliVia. There are large areas of nearly virgin territory. There are large expanses of land which is either homogeneous or where lack of homogeneity does not invalidate the analysis of feeder roads. There are certainly many places where crops of various kinds could be grown at a cost of production substantially below market prices. The only assumption made which was clearly not realistic was the assumption that the cost-price surplus was the same for all relevant crops in an area. This is obviously not true but the introduction of different crops with different cost-price surpluses (i.e different values of w) merely complicates the analysis; it does not invalidate it~ It is necessary, however, to examine more carefully the question of the cost-price surplus before proceeding any fur- ther, because the whole analysis depends upon it. The Cost-price Surplus There is without doubt a clear surplus between the poten- •• tial cost of production and current market price of many crops studied in the penetration road studies carried out as part of the National Transport Study. But two important problems arise. First, can one rely upon the stability of market prices in the future? With every major crop the past history of world prices has shown tremendous fluctuations. Prices have soared at times, only to 'be followed after a few years by a catastrophic crash. The World Bank has published long-term forecasts of agricultural and mineral prices but these do not, of course, attempt to in- clude the violent fluctuations which seem to be an inevitable 'Ii characteristic of these markets. -484- '.  The magnitude of these fluctuations in world prices, from which Bolivia cannot escape, is far bigger than the cost-price surpluses considered in the foregoing analysis. Hence the element of uncertainty and risk must play a large part in the minds of potential producers before they decide to go into these undeveloped areas. The existence of a current cost-price surplus is by no means enough to attract producers. Secondly, apart from movement of world prices, what will be the local impact of a big increase in the production of cer- tain crops? The sizes of area and the magnitudes of production considered in the analysis are enormous. There are no inter- nal markets in Bolivia capable of absorbing the huge volumes of production indicated. Agricultural production on the scale sug- gested could lead rapidly to a collapse of local prices. Hence production must either be limited to the capacity of Bolivian markets or be clearly destined for export. The problem of marketing the production of these new areas is of dominant importance. In other words, where can the pro- duce be sold, at what price, and at what cost of transport? There is no point in considering feeder road development at all until one is sure that there is a realistic possibility of mar- keting the produce of the area at a profit. And the scale of profitable production possible may be far less than suggested in the analysis. The analysis assumes that market price is in- dependent of the volume of supply from the area. With some crops, where there is access to major foreign markets, this may be true; with others, it is definitely not true. The Simple Penetration Road Given a realistic possibility of marketing the produce of the area at a profit, one may proceed to the question of road development. It is shown very easily that the concept of a long penetration road makes no economic sense unless it is sup- ported by a network of feeder roads. There is no economic case for building a long penetration road as a single project. If it is built at all, it should be built section by section, with feeder road support, over a long period of time depending on the speed with which agricultural development takes place. There is, of course, the possibility that such a road may serve the additional function of a link in the national highway system. In this case, it must be evaluated as such, not just as a development road.  ,. • .... Location of Penetration Roads • It is evident that these roads should be located near to the target markets, other things being equal. It is clearly uneconomic to open up more distant areas before the nearer areas have been developed, unless the productive potential of the for- mer areas is sufficiently superior to justify it. There is a natural desire to develop fertile land and to grow the crops that it is best suited to, but this may be uneconomic if the land is badly situated relative to "markets and transport. It • mfiY be better to develop inferior land and to grow the crops t at can be sold at a profit rather than the crops that can be grown most easily. In general, therefore, unless there is a demonstrable case for going otherwise, penetration roads should be pushed out gra- dually from the major markets and should be supported by feeder roads designed to open up first the land nearest to the markets. Pattern of Feeder Roads .. .. The analysis has considered the three main patterns of feeder roads - rectangular, radial and semiradial - and has con- • ... cluded that the semiradial system is most economic. This con- clusion depends upon the simple situation where an agricultural area is focused on a single market. In a more complex case, where produce is being sold in two or more markets, the rectan- .. gular pattern could be preferable. In Bolivia, however, the former situation seems to be most common. There must therefore be a case for trying to develop • feeder roads on the semiradial principle. The optimal angle of semiradial feeder roads depends on the relative operating costs on feeder and penetration roads. It was shown that a single penetration road with feeders 'W may not be the most efficient pattern. A better return on in- vestment and a larger APP can be obtained from two penetration roads at right angles, with feeder roads of the semiradial or, '!!! depending on the geographical situation, rectangular type. Spacing The analysis has shown the importance of spacing. It is undesirable to space feeder roads so widely that large areas of land between the roads remain undeveloped. It is also undesira- ble to space them so closely that their fields of influence overlap unduly. -486-  The optimal spacing depends largely on the cost of trans- port off the road. Clearly, this varies from one area to another according to the type of terrain. Very little seems to be known about off-road costs or about the distances from the road that farmers are willing to develop. The idea was mentioned of a separate class of public road, below the level of feeder roads. If feeder roads are much far- ther apart than the typical width of two farms, or if farms are fragmented, then public roads (or tracks) are essential to give access to the feeder roads themselves. This is a question that perhaps needs further study. The Area of Profitable Production The calculation showed that enormous areas could, in theory, be profitably developed, given quite small cost-price surpluses. In other words, the costs of providing feeder roads and using them are relatively modest. The cost of transport is not the major question. More jimportant are the questions of actually pro- moting the agricultural development and, as already discussed, marketing the produce. In practice, the estimated areas of profitable production would take decades to develop. The question of "area of influence" therefore becomes relatively unimportant. Much more important is the question of speed of development. Transport Costs It should be added that the costs of building and using roads were estimated in flat, easy terrain. In mountainous or swampy country the costs could be considerably higher. Labor One of the major factors in promoting the development of virgin lands is the immigration of labor. The rate of return on the road investment depends crucially on the speed with which de- velopment occurs, and this depends mainly on the speed of immigra- tion or colonization. The whole question of development has to be considered in the light of migration. This question is just as relevant to the economic evaluation of this sort of road in- vestment as is the question of agricultural potential. In particular, in this Study, all penetration or feeder road projects should ultimately be considered as a whole since they all depend on the same source of labor. It must be emphasized that the value of the road investment depends crucially on the speed with which the developmental impact builds up. The rate of investment of this kind must be related to the rate at which development can realistally take place. If too many penetration and feeder roads are provided too soon, much of the investment will lie adle and unproductive for a long time. -487-  '. ''II Analysis of Potential Agricultural Areas This assessment is largely based on the Map of vegetation and Land Use produced by the ERTS and GEOBOL. They divide the ''II country into eight land categories of which only four are suitable for agriculture, though these four cover 87 percent of the national territory. The category most exploited at present is called "pasture, with and without shrubs" which, for our purpose, should be divided into "wet" and "not wet"; ... both can be used for million hectares. The second category consists of forest which, in places, could be cleared and used for cultivation or iliivestock; there could be about 46.6 million hectares used in this way, after allowing for areas '. that should remain under forest as a protection against erosion. The third category is land under cultivation or lying fallow. This occupies only 2.9 million hectares but could be ''II expanded to 22 million hectares by the utilization of prairies and forests in two former categories. Finally there are another 2.4 million hectares of general inundated land suitable only for water buffalo. Figure 12-2 of the Main Report shows the areas under production, but only areas where the farming is relatively intensive. In addition there are large areas under extensive farming, which is generally extremely extensive and primitive. Virtually no capital is employed and little is done to maintain, let alone improve, the fertility of the land. The land is not fenced, nor drained, and there is practically no attempt to irrigate where this is needed. Yields are very low. The '. ,it intensive farming is not intensive by, say, European standards, but use is made of machinery, fertilizers and pesticides, fields are fenced, and efforts are made to counter the .. problems of climate and season. Yields per hectare are there- fore much higher, though still low by the standards of really intensive farming. .. This distinction is of vital importance. There are large areas of extensive farming but only a few small areas of relatively intensive farming. For our purpose the extensive areas can be considered as largely unexploited; their potential is much greater than their current production. . Not surprisingly, all the areas of intensive farming are served by road, but much of the extensive farming is in areas devoid of roads. These areas are mainly in the Beni and North and West Santa Cruz. -488- •  In Northern La Paz, two roads are suggested in Iturralde province to open up a large, low area for coffee, rice and citrus fruits for the La Paz market, also timber for San Bue- naventura and possible cattle for export to Per~ and Chile. A third road, mainly in Franz Tamayo province, passes through part of the lower Altiplano where sheep and forest products could be produced. In Pando two roads are proposed in country good for rubber and tropical nuts, with a view to exportation via Guayaramer!n and the Amazon. Big opportunities are seen for the development of beef cattle but these have to be linked with export outlets. In the Beni five roads are designed to open up intensive cattle- rearing for export partly through the Amazon to Europe and partly by air to Per~ and Chile. In the far east a road (with an alternative route) is intended to connect Pampas de San Mat!as with the rest of the country, and further south a road from Puerto Su~rez is designed to stimulate cattle production for export via the R!o Paraguay. This last road continues through the Tucavaca valley in order to open up a large area for the cultivation of cereals, to replace imports, and also citrus fruits, rice and soya for export down the R!o Paraguay. It is connected by another new road to the city of Santa Cruz, passing through an area suitable for yuca. Farther south a road is proposed to open up a large inaccessible area in Chuquisaca and Tarija, in order to exploit its varied climates and fertile valleys for the production of olives, vines and many other fruits both temperate and subtropical. Finally, in the Brazilian Shield, a long road is suggested with the intention of exploiting mineral deposits, although the location and commercial feasibility of such deposits have not yet been adequately established. The Penetration Road Projects The selected road proposals have been defined as sixteen separate projects. Each one can be divided, of course, into sections1 because of this, they appear as 20 projects in the Project List, namely: 600 Puerto Rico-Riberalta (Pando) 601 Humait~-CachuelaEsperanza (Pando) 602 Cachuela Esperanza-Fortaleza (Pando) 610 Ixiamas-Chiv~ (La Paz) 611 Ixiamas-Tumupasa (La Paz) 612 Tumupasa-Apolo (La Paz) 670 Cruce Blanca Flor-Riberalta (Beni) -489-  '. '. 671 Cruce Blanca Flor-Santa Rosa (Beni) 672 Blanca Flor-Cruce Blanca Flor (Beni) • 673 Cruce Blanca Flor-Puerto Siles (Beni) 674 Puerto Siles-Guayaramer!n (Beni) 677 San Javier-San Rarn6n (Beni) 679 San Rarn6n-Magdalena (Beni) 680 681 715 724 Magdalena-San Ignacio de Velasco Magdalena-Casarabe Azurduy-Palos Blancos Palos Blancos-Trementinal (Bermejo) (Beni, Santa Cruz) (Beni) (Chuquisaca) (Tarija) '. 735 Tunas-San Jos~ de Chiquitos (Santa Cruz) 736 Quitunquifia-Puerto Su~rez (Santa Cruz) 737 San Rafael-San Matias (Santa Cruz). For analysis and evaluation they can be treated in seven groups. Three are centered on Ixiarnas in Northern La Paz. Two are linked in the Pando. Five are designed to open up cattle farming in the Beni. Two are alternative routes to San Matias, again in cattle country. Two are linked in an effort to promote soya, meat and timber production for export from the Rio Paraguay. One goes to the far south of Tarija, and finally there is one running along the Brazilian Shield which is dependent on the disoover:y of worthwhile mineral deposits there. • All these roads., if builtin their entirety, would eventually form links in the national or international road network and could therefore serve through-traffic unrelated to the economic development that they are designed to generate. This traffic could only appear, of course, if and when a complete link was built, and in most cases the volumes o·f such traffic would be trivial. Six of the roads terminate at the frontier, where they would attract very little traffic. The only ones that are close to an urban area of any size are No. 735,Tunasto San Jos~ de Chiquitos, which gives access to Santa Cruz from the east, and No. 677 which runs north from Trinidad to San Rarn6n, but both these roads are situated in areas of very sparse population. The sixteen roads are listed in the Main Report Volume with their length and estimated construction cost. The roads are assumed to be 6 meters wide in mountainous terrain, other- wise 8 meters wide, and gravel-surfaced except in the Beni and Pando where they are made of earth. Feeder roads are 4 1/2 meters wide and earth-surfaced. The estimated construction cost of all these roads, (4,174 km) is about $b 10,600 million ($US 530 million) at 1977 prices. If they were supported by feeder roads at, say, 10 km or 5 km intervals, in cattle and other country respectively, • 'II -490- '. extending an average of 15 km on both sides, this would open up 10 million hectares, i.e. about 9 percent of the area of Boli- via. * This amount of feeder roads is purely hypothetical, to give an idea of the magnitude of cost involved. The total of $b 27,100 million ($US 1,355 million) equals about one-third of the predicted budget for all public investment in transport during the next 20 years, or about 65 percent of the available budget for roads outside urban areas. It is clear, therefore, that whatever the value of these roads, they are not all likely to be built during the next 20 years. A process of selection and ranking is essential. * These estimates omit road No.12, which is an alternative to road No. 13, and allocate only 50 km of feeder road to the mineral road No. 11. -491-  •• II Table 12A-9 ROAD MArNTENANCE COSTS ($b millions per year) . ROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE (hectares) No. 20,000 150,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 1 1.5 7.6 20.2 36.0 52.4 2 1.5 7.6 20.2 36.0 52.4 3 1.5 7.6 n.f. n.f. n. f. 4-5 2.1 10.4 27.1 47.9 69.4 6-9 1.6 7.0 17.4 30.2 43.1 10 1.6 7.0 17.4 30.2 43.1 11 Not applicable * 12-13 1.3 5.6 13.9 24.2 34.5 14-15 1.3 5.6 13.9 24.2 34.5 16 1.5 7.6 20.2 n.f. n.f. '. * Road No. 11, being a mineral development road, does not possess an area of influence in any meaningful sense. n.f. = not feasible. 'III -492-  Table 12A-10 YIELDS AND UNIT PRODUCTION COSTS Iturralde Province CROP YIELD PER HA COST PER HA COST PER TON (tons) ($b. ) ($b. ) Maize 3.00 2,450 817 Rice 2.30 4,400 1,913 Coffee (10 years) 0.59 3,715 6,275 I Coffee (after 10 years) 0.82 4,950 6,037 *'" \0 LV I Citrus (10 years) 13.50 4,020 298 Citrus (after 10 years) 24.00 5,100 212 Sugar Cane 75.00 6,975 93 Cocoa 2.40 4,111 1,713 Soya 1. 65 3,350 2,030 Beef 0.20 2,062 9,550 (deducting value of skin, etc.)  Table 12A-11 PROFIT MARGINS FOR SELECTED CROPS, 1977 Iturralde Province COST OF PRODUCTION LA PAZ WHOLESALE CROP AND TRANSPORT PRICE PROFIT MARGIN ($b ./ton) ($b./ton) ($b./ton) ($b./ha) (1) Maize 2,417 3,000 583 1,167 Rice 3,513 8,220 4,707 7,221 (10 years) 7,875 16,000 8,215 4,794 I Coffee (after 10 years) 7,637 16,000 8,363 6,858 "'" \0 1,860 8,000 6,140 82,900 "'I" Citrus Lemons Oranges 1,860 4,520 2,660 35,900 Cocoa 3,333 30,000 26,667 64,000 Soya 3,630 6,250 2,620 2,896 Beef 11,350(2) 19,340 7,990 1,622 New York Price (3) Coffee 9,700 40,000 (1979) 30,300 17,900 (1) For annual crops the land is left fallow every third year; therefore, the profit per hectare is reduced by one-third. (2) 200 pesos added for refrigeration. (3) World prices in 1977 were exceptionally high. A much lower price obtained in 1979 • . ~. . . . . •• ~i!IiI."" ••• 11 ......... 4 "t;l •• "; .. ."  Table 12A-12 PROFIT MARGINS FOR CROPS FROM PANDO CROP COST OF PRODUCTION COST OF TRANSPORT MARKET PRICE PROFIT MARGIN ($b/ton) ($b/ton) ($b/ton) ( $b/ton) ($b/ha) Manaus Rubber 11,805 1,500-1,650 16,000 2,545- 2,695 1,375-1,455 I Cashew 6,000 1,500-1,650 20,000 * 12,350-12,500 3,330-3,375 "" I.D U1 Coconuts 491 1,500-1,650 5,000 * 2,850- 3,000 n.a. I Brazil nuts 500 1,500-1,650 20,000 * 17,850-18,000 n.a. La Paz Rubber 11,805 6,150 18,000 45 25 * Minimum estimates. n.a. = not applicable.  Table 12A-13 POTENTIAL PROFIT MARGINS ON BENI BEEF ($b. per ton, 1978 prices) LA PAZ LIMA CHILE MANAUS Production cost {ll 10,600 10,600 10,600 10,600 Transport to slaughterhouse 20- 400 20- 400 20- 400 20- 400 I Slaughtering, etc. 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 ,f:. .1.0 0'\ Refrigerated transport to port 2,150 4,300 4,300 1,600 I Market price 19,340 18,000 29,600 24,020 Profit per ton 4,940-5,320 1,450-1,830 13,050-13,430 10,170-10,550 Profit per hectare 1,003-1,080 294- 371 2,650- 2,726 2,065- 2,142 (1) Including $b. 1,000 for taxes and payments to the Federacion de Ganaderos. ~ ~ .. . ~ • ~ ~ •• • ~ • • ~ ~ • j • j • j • j •• • • a j • • ~. ••  Table 12A-14 POTENTIAL PROFIT MARGIN ON SAN MATIAS BEEF ($b. per ton, 1978 prices) CACERES BUENOS AIRES Production Cost 9,600 9,600 Transport to Slaughterhouse 200 660 Slaughtering, etc. 200 1,250 Refrigerated Transport to Market 1,550 Market Price 16,000 19,000 Profit per Ton 6,000 5,940 Profit per Hectare 1,200 1,188 -497-  Table 12A-15 POTENTIAL PROFIT MARGINS ON OUTPUT FROM TUNAS - SAN JOSE AREA ($b. per ton) SANTA CRUZ CORUMBA VILLAMONTES BUENOS AIRES Yuca Maize Maize So~a Soya Production Cost 360 1,580 1,580 2,780 2,780 Transport Cost 460- 780 460-780 400- 500 720- 820 780-1,000 Market Price 1,740 2,000 2,800 5,000 5,400 I .;.. 1.0 00 I Profit Margin/Ton 600- 920 negative 720- 820 1,400-1,500 1,620-1,840 Profit Margin/Ha 15,000-23,000 negative 2,240-2,540 2,580-2,780 3,000-3,400 $: .. '" JII Ii ... 4 ... "'''iI '.>Ii "" ... 4 •• I!r,fj ~d •• ~ ••••• " •••  Table 12A-16 QUITUNQUI~A - PUERTO SUAREZ: PROFIT MARGINS FOR DIFFERENT CROPS ($b./ton) COST OF PRODUCTION COST OF TRANSPORT MARKET PRICE PROFIT PER TON PROFIT PER HA ($b.) Santa Cruz Wheat 2,703 465- 645 3,600 252- 432 459- 786 I ,\::> \.0 Maize 1,582 465- 645 3,000 773- 953 2126- 2621 \.0 I Buenos Aires Maize 1,582 680- 860 2,000 negative negative Rice 2,870 450- 650 4,600 1080-1260 2484- 2298 Soya 3,333 680- 860 5,400 1207-1387 1991- 2288 Bananas 183 720- 900 2,900 1817-1997 49059-53919 Citrus 220 900-1100 4,600 4270-4470 85400-89400 Beef * 11,600 800 22,000 9600 1949 Robor~ Citrus 220 60- 240 600 140- 320 2800- 6400 * Including slaughtering, packing and refrigeration.  Table 12A-17 AZURDUY - BERMEJO: PROFIT MARGINS FOR DIFFERENT CROPS (Sb./ton) COST OF COST OF MARKET PROFIT PRODUCTION TRANSPORT PRICE PER TON PROFIT PER HA (Sb. ) Europe I Olive oil 34,050 3,400 44,000 6,550 5,895 V1 Palta butter 22,400 3,400 40,000 14,200 71,000 0 0 I Lima Wine and spirits 33,600 1,300 40,000 5,100 44,800 Jam 34,000 1,300 62,000 26,700 507,000-1,281,000 Juice 31,200 1,300 50,000 17,500 147,000 Canned fruit 31,300 1,300 90,000 57,500 690,000- 920,000 Puree 34,200 1,300 70,000 34,500 207,000 La Paz Wine and spirits 33,600 1,000 38,000 3,350 29,480 Jam 34,000 1,000 62,000 26,950 781,000-1,293,000 Juice 31,200 1,000 50,000 17,750 149,100 Canned fruit 31,300 1,000 90,000 57,650 692,000- 922,000 Puree 34,200 1,000 70,000 34,750 208,500 ... II> j , Ii .. iii- • • • • 4 • ~ •• • • ~ 4 •• • • • • • • • j • • • - • j  Table 12A-18 NEED FOR IMMIGRANTS PENETRATIOO PRINCIPAL POImTIAL AREA 00. OF AGRIctJL- 'IDTAL REQUIREMENT OF roAD 00. crops OF aJLTIVATIOO 'ltJRAL HOUSEHOI.tS POPUIATIOO DMrGRANTS (Jan2) 1 Rice 60 860 Cocoa 50 360 14,500 Coffee 720 } 15,180 50 Citrus 40 590 710 2 Cocoa Coffee Rice 100 50 50 720 740 } 13,020 12,500 3 Timber n.a. 1,000 6,000 6,000 4 cashews Brazil nuts Timber 200 n.a. n.a. 930 70 500 ) 9,000 8,000 5 6 cattle 600 270 1,620 1,500 7 8 cattle 2,500 1,100 6,600 6,400 9 cattle 5,700 2,600 15,600 15,000 10 cattle 1,200 540 3,240 3,000 11 Minerals n.a. 12 13 cattle 710 320 1,920 1,800 14 Soya 200 2,400 14,400 14,300 15 Maize 500 5,100 Rice 350 5,000 Soya 300 3,650 Wheat 175 1,775 125,100 ·120,000 Citrus 125 1,850 Bananas 50 400 Beef 1,500 700 others 250 2,375 16 Olives 200 1,100 Paltas 100 550 Vines 200 1,100 61,200 58,000 Soft fruit 100 1,450 Citrus 200 3,000 Ten'perate fruit 200 3,000 272,880 261,000 -501-  Table 12A-19 MIGRATION BETWEEN CITIES, URBAN SETTLEMENTS AND RURAL AREAS, 1950 - 76 NET LOSERS OF MIGRANTS NET GAINERS OF MIGRANTS Area Loss Annual % loss Area Gain % of Total Gain (OOOs) (OOOs) Potos.! rural 385.8 2.5 Other countries 943.2 67.3 Oruro rural 95.8 2.4 Santa Cruz city 171. 3 12.2 Chuquisaca urban 25.5 2.0 L~ Paz city 103.3 7.4 Cochabamba rural 252.9 1.9 Santa Cruz urban 76.0 5.4 La Paz rural 372.0 1.7 Cochabamba city 50.5 3.6 I U1 Chuquisaca rural 138.0 1.6 Tarija urban 13.8 0.98 0 N Tarija rural 44.0 1.3 Beni urban 10.6 0.75 I Sucre city 17.1 0.9 Oruro urban 6.7 0.48 Santa Cruz rural 37.5 0.5 Trinidad city 5.7 0.41 Potos.! city 12.1 0.5 Potos'! urban 5.3 0.38 La Paz urban 17.7 0.4 Tarija city 5.2 0~37 Pando rural 2.4 0.3 Beni rural 3.8 0.27 Cochabamba urban 1.0 Oruro city 3.2 0.23 Pando urban 3.1 0.22 1;401.8 Cobija city 0.1 0.01 1,401.8 100.00 • ~ ~ _ • • ~ • • • 4 8 • ~ • • • • , • j •• •• • • • • ~ ~ • ~ •• • i  Table 12A-20 PROJECTED MIGRATION BETWEEN CITIES, URBAN SETTLEMENTS AND RURAL AREAS 1976 - 99 NET LOSERS OF MIGRANTS NET GAINERS OF MIGRANTS Loss HHH~sl Gain ~OOOs~ Area 1976-89 197b-99 Area 197b-89 1976-99 La Paz rural 185.8 400.1 Other countries 449.7 961. 8 Potost rural 163.0 339.2 Santa Cruz city 81.8 174.8 Cochabamba rural 120.9 258.0 La Paz city 49.3 105.2 Chuquisaca rural 68.3 ,147.7 Santa Cruz urban 36.3 77.6 Oruro rural 43.4 90.8 Cochabamba city 24.1 51.4 Tarija rural 23.2 50.8 Tarija urban 6.5 14.0 Santa Cruz rural 22.3 50.7 Beni urban 5.0 10.8 La Paz urban 11. 6 26.5 Oruro urban 3.3 7.0 Chuquisaca urban 11.8 ·25.1 Potost urban 2.6 5.7 Sucre city 9.7 21. 5 Trinidad city 2.6 5.6 Potost city 6.8 15.5 Tarija city 2.4 5.2 Pando rural 1.5 3.4 Beni rural 1.7 3.7 Cochabamba urban 0.1 Oruro city 1.5 3.3 Pando urban 1.4 3.2 668.3 1,429.4 Cobija city 0.1 0.1 668.3 1.429.4 -503-  '. '. PENETRATION ROAD EVALUATION CRITERIA See Chapter 12, section entitled Evaluation of Potential RQads. Sixteen penetration roads have been designed with the object of helping to promote agricultural (or, in one case, mineral) development in currently inaccessible parts of the country, at the same time boosting export earnings and re- distributing population in a way calculated to raise productivity and incomes. The justification of these roads, and of the feeder roads that are generally an essential accessory, lies in the extent to which they generate surplus profits, over and above the normal return expected on capital • -504- employed in the productive activities themselves. These surplus profits must be large enough to provide an acceptable return on the capital cost of the roads and to cover road maintenance costs if these are not already covered by vehicle taxation. In practice it would be spurious to predict the economic rate of return on these penetration roads, because there are too many uncertainties. The biggest uncertainty is the speed of development, which sharply affects the rate of return. Market prices for primary commodities are notoriously unpredictable, and they are often of critical importance to the rate of return. Production and transport costs are relatively easy to predict but yields cannot be known reliably until farmers have actually started to grow crops in the areas under consideration. The scale of development is also very difficult to predict since it is influenced by non-economic factors like the supply of migrants and considerations of climate, culture and environment. The approach adopted here, therefore, has been to calculate, in terms of hectares and profit margins, the minimum amount of development necessary to justify the cost of road construction and maintenance, allowing a reasonable gestation period, and then to assess the probability that this minimum will be achieved. This assessment cannot depend solely on quantifiable factors: it must contain a number of difficult judgements concerning, for example, migrants' reactions, market prospects and methods of production. In reaching this assessment a scoring system was used. A score was given to each of several criteria on which the assessment will be based. The score will usually be between 0 and 10 but in one case the upper limit is 15, in another 5. The selected criteria are as follows: (1) Level of Benefits Needed to Justify Road Investment The data are taken from Table 12-2 of the Main Report. As was explained before, the required benefits per developed hectare diminish as the area of influence, i.e. the number of hectares developed increases. But the general level (or curve) for some roads is higher than for others. For an area of influence of 20,000 hectares, the required benefits per hectare vary between 850 and 2,950 pesos. Scoring system: 0 = 3,000 pesos, 10 = 500 pesos with linear interpolation. -505- (2) Estimated Level of Pro~itability at 1977 Prices "Ill The profit margins, in pesos/hectare, naturally vary for different crops. A weighted average has to be arrived at by judging the relative areas devoted to each crop. ' Scoring system: 0 = 500 pesos/ha. 10 = 3,000 pesos/ha. 15 = 4,250 pesos/ha or more. Thus all projects must score more than 10 on the first two criteria combined if they are to be profitable. (3) Price Variability The prices of some commodities are highly variable, which introduces an additional risk into their production. World commodity prices are recorded since 1955 by the World Bank, in both current and constant dollars. Using the constant dollar series, a measure of variability is the standard deviation divided by the mean. Scoring system: 0 = 0.35 or more: 10 = 0.15 or less. (4) Price Prospects The World Bank gives forecasts for world commodity prices to 1990. Obviously these cannot • be accepted as reliable but they do give an indication of the prospects as viewed by one competent authority. As a measure, we take the 1990 forecast (in constant dollars) as a ratio' of the 1977 price. Scoring system: o = 0.8 or less: 10 = 1.8 or more. (5) Market Size It is extremely difficult to assess market size. In some cases we have described the market as "small ll , in other cases "without practical limit". It is difficult to be more precise. One can guess in broad terms the number of hectares that the market might support. Scoring system: 0 = 0; 1 = 10,000: 2 = 20,000: 3 = 40,000; 4 = 80,000; 5 = 120,000; 6 = 200,000; 7 = 320,000: 8 = 460,000; 9 = 600,000: 10 = 750,000 or more. -506- (6) Labor Intensiveness The more labor required per hectare, the more difficult it is to attract the required number of migrants. Labor intensiveness varies from 2.5 to 68 man-days per hectare for the different roads. Scoring system: 0 = 100 man-days!ha; 10 = 0 man-days!ha. (7) Capital Intensiveness The more capital required per hectare, the more difficult it is to attract development. Insufficient data are available to permit quantification of capital requirements. Some products clearly need more capital than others. In particular, products with a long gestation period like cattle, coffee, cocoa, citrus fruits and olives, require working capital to finance the early years when there is little or no income. Lacking data on these capital costs, a rough classification will be used to show the relative capital needs per hectare of the different areas. Scoring system: 0 = High capital requirement. 10 = Zero capital requirement. (8) Climate The attractiveness of the climate to live in, from the point of view of migrants from the Alti- plano and Valleys, will be expressed as a function of temperature and humidity. Scoring system: 0 = Relatively bad. 5 = Relatively good. (9) Isolation Isolation will be measured as the sum S where: S = a 1 + a 2 + a 3 + a 4 + as a1 - _lIP o pulation in OOOs of Distance in km °t 1 C1 y a , a , a , as refer similarly to cities 2, 3, 2 3 4 4 and 5. -507-  The cities are defined as the five urban centers which maximize S. Distances are straight-line distances taken from a point 20 km along the penetration road. Populations are taken from the 1976 census. Only urban centers exceeding 5,000 in population are considered. Scoring system: 0 = 0.1; 10 = 0.4. (10) Distance from Altiplano and Valleys The Altiplano and Valleys cover a large area and one cannot make a precise measurement of distances to and from this area. The penetration roads are therefore ranked in order of their distance to the nearest importance area of population within the Altiplano or the Valleys. Scoring system: 0 = farthest; 10 = nearest. • -508-  -APPENDIX 12B EVALUATION OF THE SANTA BARBARA-BELLA VISTA HIGHWAY  Appendix l2B EVALUATION OF THE SANTA BARBARA-BELLA VISTA HIGHWAY CONTENTS Project Costs 510 Estimated Traffic 511 Project. Benefits 513 Evaluation 516 TABLES Number Page 12B-1 Comparison of Observed and 1973 Predicted 512 Volumes 12B-2 Santa B~rbara-Bella Vista Unit Vehicle 514 Operating Cost Savings 12B-3 Santa B~rbara-Bella Vista Total Vehicle 515 Operating Cost Savings -509-  EVALUATION OF THE SANTA BARBARA-BELLA VISTA HIGHWAY Much of the highway from La Paz to San Borja is either under construction or committed and there remains only one section to be evaluated between Santa B~rbara and Bella Vista. An evalua- tion of this highway already exists, made as part of the De Leuw Cather, Canada Ltd. (DELCANDA) Study (1) of the La Paz- Rio Alto Beni route and completed in 1974. Since then, costs have changed and it becomes worthwhile to re-evaluate the project using costs and benefits compatible with the other evaluations undertaken in this Study. Project Costs The new road would have a length of 99 km compared with the existing road length of 111.5 km. The cost of the road can be estimated as follows, based on the DELCANDA Study, and the contract cost of the La Paz-Cotapata section: COST IN US$ MILLICNS La Paz-cotapata DEICANDA estimate (1973) 20.843 (48 kIn) Contract cost (1977) 7l. Santa B6rbara-Bella Vista DELCANDA estimate (1973) 43.255 (99 kIn) Hence, 1977 estimate 146. Hence, cost in pesos (1977) = $b2900 millions. cost in pesos (1989) = $b3500 millions. It is possible that the costs arrived at by this calculation are misleadingly high. Many~in SNC believe that the costs for the La Paz-Cotapata contract are unnecessarily high, being influenced in part by the fact that only one tender was received for this contract. Thus the high costs are not necessarily solely attributable to the difficult terrain. It is hoped that costs can, indeed, be reduced. The conclusion of this appendix is that Santa Barbara-Bella Vista cannot be justified economically at these construction costs. Furthermore, it is recommended in Chapter 12 that ways are found to reduce costs, and if one of these ways is stricter control of the contract, so much the better. The rest of this appendix continues to assume the costs estimated above. (1) Estudio de Factibilidad para el Camino La Paz-Rio Alto Beni (Feasibility Study of the La Paz-Alto Beni River Highway) De Leuw Cather, Ltd. and Prudencio Claros y Asociados for Ministry of Transport, Communications and Civil Aeronautics, La Paz, 1974. -510- Estimated Traffic Traffic estimates were available from two sources; the model estimates made by this Study and the earlier estimates made by DELCANDA. The model estimates gave low volumes on this route while the DELCANDA forecasts were very high. '. The low model forecasts are explained by the fact that Trinidad, the end point of the complete route, will also be served by two additional new roads in 1989, one from Santa Cruz (now under construction) and one from Cochabamba (evalu- ated and recommended by this Study) and this is likely to em- phasize the links between Trinidad and these two cities at the expense of the link with La Paz. On the other hand, the model estimates do not satisfactorily take account of the potential for development in the La Paz-San Borja corridor and so are not en- 'If tirely acceptable as they stand. The high forecasts of DELCANDA are also not acceptable, being based on far too optimistic growth rates. This can be demonstrated by comparing DELCANDA normal traffic forecasts with other counts as shown in Table 12B-1. In other words, apart from the section Cotapata-Santa B~n­ bara (where traffic figures appear to be anomalous), observed growth has been very much less than predicted by DELCANDA. In fact, the weighted average of traffic growth on the section La Paz-Caranavi was observed to be negative from 1973 to 1978, I a 4 percent per year increase from 1973 to 1979, and 3 percent increase from 1973 to 1980, compared with a 9 percent per year increase predicted by DELCANDA. Possibly the comparatively ,Ii large observed increase in traffic in the Cotapata-Santa B~nbara sections is connected with the La Paz-Cotapata construction 'II traffic. The counts on either side certainly do not indicate a growth in long distance traffic. ., A compromise was adopted to obtain traffic volumes for use in the analysis. The without-project case traffic volumes were obtained by increasing 1977 observed volumes by 4 percent per year. With-project volumes were obtained by adding the generated traffic estimated in the DELCANDA Study (446 vehicles per day) . This gave the following daily flows: NORMAL TRAFFIC 1989 1989 1977 OBSERVED GRCWI'H FACI'OR WITHOill' -PRQJECT WI'lli-PIDJECT SECTION VOLUMES TO 1989 VOLUMES VOLUMES Santa BMbara- 162 1.6 259 705 caranavi caranavi- 40 1.6 64 510 Bella Vista -511- '.  Table l2B-1 COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND 1973 PREDICTED VOLUMES 1973 1977 1978 (2) 1979 1980 J3 ) SEX:TION SN: DELCANDA SN~ 1 bEr..CANDA SN:: DELCANDA SNC DEr..C'J\NDA Sl'C DELCANDA Ia Paz - Cotap3. ta 379 369 316 502 280 542 320 586 284 632 Cotap3. ta -Santa Barbara 166 174 337 255 170 280 370 308 430 339 Santa Bh'bara-caranavi 125 137 173 201 147 221 158 243 95 267 Caranavi-Bella Vista 58 41 39 65 ... 72 81 91 I U1 I-' ~ (1) EstiIrate only. (2) Based on eight m:mths manual counts. (3) Based on ten oonths manual counts. S<XJR::ES: 1] Estudio de Fac'tibilidad )ara el camino La Pa:'::-l{!o Alto Beni (.e~Q.sibility stu yo e La Paz-A to B~n~ R~ver H~glway De Leuw Cather, Lt. ana prudencio Claros y Asociados for J:.linistry of Transport, Coiumunications and Civil Aeronuatics, La Paz 1974. 2] Servicio Nacional de Cam1nos (SNC).  • 'III Project Benefits These come from four sources: 1. Change in road maintenance costs. 2. Change in vehicle operating costs (including passenger time costs) • 3. Meat traffic benefits. 4. Agricultural benefits. Road maintenance costs increase with the project due mainly to higher traffic volumes. They are calculated using the equa- tions: Without-Project (gravel) = (12T + 3,000) x W x L 'III! With-Project (paved) = 6T + 5,000) x W x L Where T = Daily traffic W = Width in meters L = Length in krns The cost increase with project was calculated as $b 3.3 million per year. Operating cost savings were calculated using unit vehicle operating costs developed by the Study. The savings per vehicle on each link are shown in Table 12B-2. Total vehicle operating cost savings are shown in Table 12B-3 and sum to $b 83.8 million. Meat traffic savings assume that once the new road is com- pleted, meat can be moved from the San Borja region by refriger- ated truck instead of by air. About 5,000 tons of meat moved from the San Borja region in 1977 and this could double by 1989. Normal road costs per ton, assuming an improved route, are about .55 pesos per kilo which might be increased by 30 percent to 0.7 pesos per kilo to allow for special trucks with a worse backhaul factor. Air costs are about 3.7 pesos per kilo. Hence potential '. meat traffic savings in 1989 are $b 30 million pesos. , Agricultural benefits on this route were estimated at US$ 2.5 millions (1973) by DELCANDA. Doubling this figure to convert to 1977 values, a benefit of $b 100 million can be estimated. Benefits can be summarized as follows: Road maintenance Operations = -83.8 3.3 = Meat traffic = 30 Agricultural = 100 $b 210.5 million -513- 'II  Table 12B-2 I SANTA BARBARA-BELLA VISTA " UNIT VEHICLE OPERATING COST SAVINGS , ;WITHOUT-PEOJECT , WI'IH-PROJECT LINK Unit Link Unit Link OJST SECTl~ VEHICLE ' Length , Cost Cost Length Cost Cost SAVIN:; (kIn) (pesos/km) (pesos/veh) (kIn) (pesos/km) (pesos/veh) , ' ,\1 Santa ~ba.ra-caranavi Jeep 57 6.94 396 51 3.58 '183 213 Snall Bus I ' 16.29 929 II 8.54 436 493 large Bus . II 28.45 1622 II 15.67 799 823 Srrall Truck " 5.56 317 " 3.74 191 126 Medium Truck II 7.83 446 .. 4.92 251 195 I large Truck .. 14.52 828 " 8.98 458 370 U1 I--' cat~vi-Bel9.!a ViSta Jeep 54 6.94 375 48 3.58 183 192 """ I 880 8.51 436 444 Srrall Bus " 16.29 . II 15.67 799 737 large Bus Srrall Truck " II 28.45 5.56 1536 300 . 3.74 191 109 Medium Truck .. 7.83 423 II 4.92 251 172 Large Truck II 14.52 784 .. 8.98 458 326  Table 12B-3 SANTA ~ - BELLA VIS'm 'lOTAL VEHICLE OPERATING COST SAVINGS DAILY DAILY VOLUMES LINK ANNUAL LINK VEHICLE Without With SAVINGS BENEFIT (1) Santa B4rbara~Caranavi Jeep 25 121 213 Small Bus 6 59 493 Large Bus o 13 823 Small Truck 42 106 126 Medium Truck 84 212 195 Large Truck 102 194 370 259 70S' 47.4 I U1 I-' Caranav1-Bella Vista Jeep 12 88 192 U1 Small Bus 6 55 444 I Large Bus o 101 737 Small Truck 4 37 109 Medium Truck 10 . 83 172 Large Truck 32 146 326 64 510 36.4 (1) Using the formulae: 1 Benefit = C (V 1 + V ) 2 x 2 x 365 Where C = Cost saving with-project per vehicle trip. V1 = Daily volume without-project. V2 = Daily volume with-project. II!' ,;jj •• .. ., .. '" ,j " dII '" " .. !IIi .. ,. lit .. .. '" iIi!." .. • • oil Ii <Ii •• Alii iii. " Evaluation A First Year Rate of Return (FYRR) in 1979 can be obtained as follows: Benefit FYRR = Cost x 100 210.5 = x 100 = 6.0% j,500 -516-  APPENDIX 12C EVALUATION OF THE HIGHWAY ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO DE MOXOS  Appendix 12C EVALUATION OF THE HIGHWAY ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO DE MOXOS CONTENTS Evaluation Methodology 518 Forecast Volumes 518 Evaluation ' 518 TABLES Number Page 12C-1 Volumes of Freight Forecast for the 519 Eteramazama-San Ignacio de Moxos Highway in 1989 12C-2 Evaluation of the Eteramazama-San Ignacio 520 de MOXOB Highway (Agricultural Products) 12C-3 Evaluation of the Eteramazama-San Ignacio 521 de Moxos Highway (Non-agricultural Products) FIGURES Follows Number Page 12C-1 Route of the Eteramazama-San Ignacio de 518 Moxos Highway 12C-2 Sectors for the Evaluation of the Eterama- 519 zama-San Ignacio Highway -517-  EVALUATION OF THE HIGHWAY ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO DE MOXOS This 272 km highway would complete the highway link between Cochabamba and Trinidad. The location is shown in Figure 12C-1. Evaluation Methodology The highway wasevaluated using the methodology set out in Appendix 3H --Evaluation of the New Modes on Existing Links. The new road is in competition with the only other existing link in the corridor, the Mamor~ River. The demand curve and the benefit coefficients as set out in Figure 3H-3 and Table 3H-4 respectively were used, with the rail values in these data representing the river for this evaluation. Forecast Volumes The volumes forecast on the road in 1989 are shown in Table 12C-1, by different size of truck and by sector to sector movement. The sectors are shown in Figure 12C-2. A total of nearly 190,000 tons per year is expected to use the road by 1989, averaging 96 vehicles per day of which 79 would be trucks. Evaluation Tables 12C-2 and 12C-3 show the details of the evaluation for agricultural and non-agricultural products respectively. The 1989 annual benefits can be summarized from these tables as follows: NORMAL GENERATED TRAFFIC TRAFFIC TOTAL (Millons of 1977 pesos) Agricultural products 46.7 2.5 49.2 Non-agricultural products 92.6 5.3 97.9 TOTAL 139.3 7.8 147.1 -518-  ,I Table 12C- 1 VOLUMES OF FREIGHT FORECAST FOR THE ETERAMAZAMA - SAN IGNACIO DE MOXOS HIGHWAY IN 1989 VOLUME OF FREIGHT ZONE PAIR Small Trucks Medium Trucks Lar9: e Trucks Total (Ton/year) Ii 1 - 3 15 100 115 1 - 44 511 2,074 7,329 9,914 1 - 5 15 75 230 320 1 - 6 29 119 244 392 1 - 7 15 86 201 302 ... 1 - 9 57 184 792 1,033 1 - 10 15 97 316 428 1 - 11 15 129 331 475 1 - 12 100 562 1,282 1,944 1 - 13 180 778 1,742 2,700 1 - 14 1,461 11,189 69,365 82,015 2 - 4 677 2,311 3,945 6,933 2 - 5 72 227 806 1,105 72 410 1,512 1,994 2 - 2 - 6 7 43 140 375 558 • 2 - 9 187 518 2,693 3,398 2 - 10 130 518 1,742 2,390 2 - 11 130 648 1,670 2,448 2 - 12 266 1,188 3,110 4,564 2 - 13 669 2,387 6,768 9,824 2 - 14 2,873 10,324 42,091 55,288 TOTAL 7,532 33,964 146,644 188,140 'Ill -519- ,.---------------------------------~~.. ~ i ... ., o , ,,'0 )~$ Eel/liE 1\1 .. 1 ... I LEGEND Paved Hiohway Gravel Hiohway •• _. To be Constructed -.---,~" ~ --.- ... ---- ROUTE OF THE ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO iLu. S-iu.. wul.A~Uj HIGHWAY FI GURE 12C-1  LEGEND o Zone Centroid 47 Zone Number ® Sector Number ·SIl® o 100 2 lOOK .... SECTORS FOR THE EVA LUATIO N OF THE ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO HIGHWAY 'lMh.ul' _)milh and ..A$j(JCiate~ F1GURE 12C-2  Table 12C-2 EVALUATION OF THE ETERAMAZAMA-SAN IGNACIO DE MOXOS HIGHWAY (Agricultural Products) BENEFITS 'IO BENEFITS 'IO DIVERl'ED BENEFIT 'IrnS WITH PRJJECT EXIS~G . GENERATED 'IOTAL SEC'IOR TCNS PER TRANSPORl' OOST TRAFFIC· .Q.)EFFICIENTBy River GENERATED'IOTAL .·TR8FFIC 1WIFFIC BENEE''Il'S PAIR YEAR W/proj. W::>/proj. X Y And Road By Poad T{NS 'IONS ($b/year) ($b/year) ($b/year) 1- 3 23 Jpesos) 1,6 0 1,778 90~~) 219 .. 52 2 21 2 25 55,124 4,675 59,799 1- 4 1,983 1,199 1,337 91.3 220.05 173 1,810 208 2,191 3,626,675 421,638 4,048,313 I- S 96 2,093 2,393 91.6 220.31 8 88 13 109 318,186 46,163 364,349 1- 6 118 1,734 2,034 92.0 220.66 10 108 19 137 336,643 59,060 395,703 - .~ 1 - 9 7 60 310 2,163 2,463 1,327 1,627 91.4 92.8 220.13 221.36 5 22 55 288 8 65 68 375 204,224 722,763 28,667 166,101 232,891 888,864 ~ - 10 86 1,580 1,858 92.0 220.66 6 80 13 99 224,375 40,042 264,417 1 - 11 95 1,196 1,496 93.0 221.54 7 88 22 117 205,513 52,471 257,984 1 - 12 389 1,286 1,586 92.8 221.36 28 361 84 473 886,313 210,292 1,096,605 I 1 - 13 540 1,054 1,354 93.4 221.89 35 505 144 684 1,070,285 310,467 1,380,752 ~ 1 - 14 16,403 957 1,009 90.4 219.25 1,574 14,829 806 17,209 21,981,163 1,200,649 23,181,812 0 12- 4 1,387 1,098 899 73.4 200.27 369 1,018 1,387 1,445,872 1,445,872 2 - 5 331 1,992 1,955 89.1 217.99 36 295 331 824,811 824,811 2 - 6 598 1,633 1,596 89.1 217.99 65 533 598 1,213,420 1,213,420 2 - 7 112 2,062 2,025 89.1 217.99 12 100 112 289,196 289,196 2 - 9 1,020 1,226 1,189 88.9 213.32 113 907 1,020 1,480,345 1,480,345 2 - 10 478 1,457 1,420 88.9 213.32 53 425 478 831,130 831.130 2 - 11 490 1,095 1,058 88.9 213.32 55 435 490 631,265 631,265 2 - 12 913 1,185 1,148 88.9 213.32 101 812 913 1,278,464 1,278,464 2 - 13 1,965 953 916 88.9 213.32 218 1,747 1,965 2,184,233 2,184,233 2 - 14 11,058 856 571 50.6 169.44 5,463 5,595 11,058 6,880,919 6,880,919 'IOTAL 49,231,144 NOl'E: FQr definition of syml:ols, see Appendix 3H. W ::: with ~ = without.  Table 12C-3 EVALUATION OF THE ETE~~ZAMA-SAN IGN~CIO DE MOXOS HIGHWAY oqon-agrlcultural Products) BENEFI'!'S 'IO B:ENEFITS 'IO DIVERI'ED BB'lEFIT 'ltNS WITH PIDJEcr' EXISTING • GrnEFA'IED ':I'O'UIL SEC'.roR TCNS PE..~· TRA..~Sl?ORl'ITlST TRAFFIC,·OJEFFICIENl' By River .... ·GENEFATED 'l'OTAL .... TPA.'l::"f'IC .. TP.AFFIC . BE\££u'S PAL.~ 'YE..a.R ¥l/ProJ~, PcjPrcj.' , x· Y .. ·Andp~d.: By Poad' 'IONS ' ''IONS' '. ($b/'Iear) (stj'k'ar) ($bj'le.arJ 1 - 3 92 1,640 1,778 74!~) 141.76 24 68 6 98 117.,329 10,092 127,421 1- 4 7,931 1,199 1,337 76.5 143.77 1,864 6,067 698 8,629 7,754,836 917,362 8,672,198 1- 5 224 2,093 2,393 77.5 .144.63 50 174 25 249 398,634 59,042 457,676 1 - 6 274 1,734 2,034 78.5 145.47 58 216 37 311 421,478 75,737 497,215 1- 7 242 2,163 2,463 77.0 144.20 56 186 26 268 441,884 63,307 505,191 1- 9 723 1,327 1,627 80.7 147.29 140 583 132 855 916,535 216,658 1,133,193 1 - 10 342 1,580 1,858 78.5 145.47 74 268 47 389 481,265 88,007 569,272 1 - 11 38.0 1,196 1,496 81.2 147.67 72 308 77 457 448,252 118,003 566,255 1 - 12 1,555 1,286 1,586 80.7 147.29 300 1,255 293 1,848 1,927,838 470,932 2,398,770 1 - 13 2,160 1,054 1,354 82.3 148.52 382 1,778 506 2,666 2,345,563 703,036 3,048,599 I U1 1 - 14 65,612 957 1,009 71.6 139.37 18,634 46,978 2,553 68,165 46,578,265 2,570,566 49,148,,831 IV ~ 2 - 4 5,546 1,098, 899 51.1 117.53 2,712 2,834 5,546 2,991,691 2,991,691 I 2 - 5 774 1,992 1,955 65.8 133.87 271 503 774 1,017,594 1,017,594 2 - 6 1,396 1,633 1,596 65.8 133.87 478 918 1,396 1,494,112 1,494,112 2 - 7 446 2,062 2,025 65.8 133.87 153 293 446 607,622 607,622 2 - 9 2,378 1,226 1,189 65.0 133.10 832 1,546 2,378 1,888,032 1,888,032 2 .;. 10 1,912 1,457 1,420 65.0 133.10 669 1,243 1,912 1,818,984 1,818,984 2 - 11 1,958 1.,095 1,058 65.0 133.10 685 1,273 1',958 1,379,772 1,379,772 2 - 12 3,651 1,185 1,148 65.0 133.10 1,277 2,374 3,651 2,796,735 2,796,735 2 - 13 7,859 953 916 64.2 132.24 2,814 5,045 7,859 4,776,896 4,776,896 2' - 14 44,230 856 571 45.6 108.52 24,061 20,169 44,230 11,979,552 11,979,552 'lUI'AL 97,875,611 NnI'.P.: For Clefinition of symbols, see lIppen:tix 3H. W = with We = without. ... ... Ito;. ,.. "'., ... • .. "" ........... "' .. .,.iii.#II .·lii.4 111-8 111! ••• '"  Maintenance costs can be calculated as follows: Maintenance Cost in 1989 = Ma9 = 1.5 (12T + 3000) x W x D Where: T = 1989 average daily traffic W = Width = 8 m D = Distance = 272 km. MS9 = 1.5 (12 x 96 + 3000) x 8 x 272 = $b 13.5 million. Only half this figure is taken since most of the traffic is diverted from other routes where maintenance costs would be saved. Hence M89 = $b6.7 million Capital cost in 1989 = $b 1,116 million (147.1 - 6.7) Hence: 1989 Single Year Rate of Return = 1,116 x 100 = 12.6% ·-522-  APPENDIX 12D EVALUATION OF THE ICHILO-MAMORE RIVER SYSTEM CLEANING PROJECT  Appendix 120 EVALUATION OF THE ICHILO-MAMORE RIVER SYSTEM CLEANING PROJECT CONTENTS Other Transport Infrastructure 524 Traffic Volumes 524 Benefits 524 Evaluation 527 TABLES Number Page 120-1 Assumed Volumes 525 120-2 Evaluation of River Cleaning 528 -523-  EVALUATION OF THE ICHILO-MAMORE RIVER SYSTEM CLEANING PROJECT The object of the project is to build and equip a boat to extract embedded tree trunks, and to remove sand bars, in the Ichilo-Mamore river system between Puerto Villarroel and Guayaramer!n. It is also planned that some large loops of the river will be bypassed by specially cut canals, mainly to avoid the need to clear the loops so isolated. It is assumed that the boat would take two years to build and equip and that the initial cleaning operation would take five years to complete, three years for the section Puerto Villarroel to Trinidad and two years for the section Trinidad to Guayaramer!n. After this, the boat would be used less intensively to maintain the river in clean condition. Based on verbal reports, an estimated cost of 30 million pesos is allowed for the boat and equipment, but this is probably an overestimate. Operating costs are assumed to be 2.3 million pesos per year for the first five years and 1.0 million pesos per year thereafter. Other Transport Infrastructure It is assumed that the railroad to R!o Grande will be opened in 1985 but that the extension to Trinidad will not be built. It is also assumed that the road from Trinidad to Guayaramer!n will be opened as a complete link by 1987, as will the Cochabamba-Trinidad and the Santa Cruz-Trinidad roads. Traffic Volumes These are shown in Table 12D-l."Normal" traffic is taken from the model forecasts, as are petroleum flows. Imports and exports volumes were selected based on the general fore- casts of the Study. Cattle volumes are the additional incre- ments associated with the plan to export meat via Guayaramer!n. Non-recorded movements were taken as equivalent to "normal" volumes. Benefits The principal benefit is reduced voyage time by the boats carrying cargo on the river. The analysis of existing river transport costs contained in Working Paper 34, Table 2, indicated the navigation times and journey times for round trips, as follows: -524-  Table 120-1 ASSUMED VOLUMES YEAR;' '. 89 Conunitted 89 Test 99 Test LINK PROJECT '. 77 Model 78 Observed Network Network Network Puerto Vil1arroel to Unrecorded 88.7 47.4 17.9 13.4 Rio Grande Normal 81.2 88.7 47.4 17.9 13.4 Petrol .... Imports Exports ... Cattle Total 177.5 94.8 35.8 . 26.8 J,Rfo Grande to Unrecorded 88.7 79.8 17.4 11.7 NTrinidad VI . Normal 81.2 88.7 79.S 17.4 11.7 I Petrol 40.0 98.6(5) 2 (1) 17 (4 ) Imports Exports Cattle - - ""' 10 (2) 11 (3 ) Total 177.5 211.6 34.8 150 Trinidad to Unrecorded 53.2 69.8 24.8 25.6 Guayaramerfn Normal 52.9 53.2 69.8 24.8 25.6 Petrol ... 22.3 22.3 49.8 Imports ... 1.6 1.0 2.0 Exports ..- .... Cattle .... 22.0 22.0 100.0 Total 106.4 185.5 94.9 203.0 (1) Out of a total of 3,530 tons. (2) Out of 13,600 tons. (3) Out of 15,000 tons. (4) Out of 30,591 tons. (5) If no rail link to Trinidad • • • • • • . .. ill ~ ... ., '" III jill .. ~ , ~ .. ~ . . .. ..  PUERTO VILLARROEL TRINIDAD TO TO TRINIDAD GUAYARAMERIN Navigation time, round trip 5.04 days 9.21 days Total voyage time, round trip, excluding time in port 7.84 days 16.14 days It is assumed that the difference between navigation time and voyage time represents delays on route due to darkness and obstacles. It is further assumed: (1) that 80 percent of the voyage delays will be eliminated by the navigation improvements; (2) that navigation time will be reduced in proportion to the reduced distance; and (3) that the value of boat's time is as derived from Working Paper 34, i.e. 1,560 pesos per day at 1977 pr ices. . Puerto Villarroel to Trinidad - Normal number of round ~r~ps for,Class liB" boat units is 12 per year; annual volume ~s approx~mately 177,000 tons; and average boat load = 93.6 tons., Thus the number of boats needed to engage in this traff~c = 177,000 2 x 93.6 x 12 = 79 boats Present route distance (one way) is 470 km. The future route distance, according to the improvements postulated will be 38.0 km less. Therefore the time saved by each boat due to reduced length of channel is: 470-38} 5.04 x 12 - (5.04 x 470 x 12 = 4.89 days per year The time saved by each boat due to removal of palos and palizadas, either directly or by elimination of such impediments through cutting off loops of the river and due to installation of navigation aids, consists of: (7.08 - 5.04) x 12 x 0.8 = 19.58 days per year Boat time saved,annually: (4.89 + 19.58) x 79 = 1,933 boat-days Value at $b 1,560 = 3.0 million (1977 prices) Trinidad to Guayaramer1n - Normal number of round trips is 10 per year for Class "B" boat-units. Annual volume is approximately 106,000 tons and average boat-load = 93.6 tons. Thus the number of boats needed to engage in this traffic 106,000 - 56 b 2 x 93.6 x 10 - oats -526-  The present route distance (one way) is 860 krn, The future • route distance according to improvements postulated will be 39.4 krn less. Therefore the time saved by each boat due to reduced length of channel is: 9.21 x 10 ... (9.21 x 860s1K· 4 , x 10 ;::: 4.22 days The time saved by each boat due to removal of palos and palizadas, either directly or by elimination due to route shortening, and due to installation of navigation aids, consists of: (14.16 - 9.21) x 10 x 0.8 = 39.60 days Boat time saved (4.22 + 39.6) x 56 = 2,454 boat-days Value at $b 1,560 = $b 3.8 million (1977 prices) Boat Losses - There is an additional benefit due to avoidance of boat loss. These are estimated at present as follows (per year). ITEM NUMBER UNIT COST TOTAL (l977pesos) 'I Puerto Villarroel-Trinidad Barges 3 125,000 375,000 , ., Boats 1 300,000 300,000 I Total 675,000 Trinidad ... Guayaramerfn Barges 1 125,000 125,000 Boats 1 300,000 300,000 Total 425,000 Assuming that boats and barges lost are not new,a benefit per year due to avoiding these losses is taken as half the values calculated above. Evaluation The costs and benefits by year were estimated in proportion to the estimated flows, which were themselves based upon the timing of the development of other transport infrastructure. They are set out in Table l2D-2. " ., ,j -527- ••  Table 12D-2 EVALUATION OF RIVER CLEANING OPERATING VOllJMES ('lbns' 000) (1 UOST OF CLEANING COST SAVING (l) IDAT IDSS SAVIN:; (I) TOTAL V-RG RG-T !:£ . CapTta1o.e=at1ng '~ V...RG . ~ . T,..G V-RG RG-T 'I!-G BENEFIT YEAR - - 1978 177 177 106 1981 15 15 . 1982 15 15 1983 2.3 2.3 ~3 .5 .1 .1 1 ... 0 1984 195 195 2.3 2.3 1.0 .7 .1 .1 1.9 1985 88 2 .. 3 2.3 .7 1.2 .1 .2 2.2 1986 160 2~3 2.3 .9 1.5 1.4 .1 .2 .1 4.2 1987 86 2.3 2.3 .9 1.5 .8 .1 .2 .1 3.6 1988 1.0 1.0 .9 1.5 3.2 .1 .. 2 .2 6.1 1989 95 212 95 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 3.4 .1 .2 .2 6.5 I U1 1990 1.0 1.0 . 1.0 1.5 3.7 .1 .2 .2 6.7 N 00 1991 1.0 1.0 '1 0.9 1.5 4.0 .1 .. 2 .2 6.9 I 1992 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.4 4.3 .1 .2 .3 7.2 1993 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.4 4.6 .1 .2 .3 7.5 1994 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 5.0 .1 .2 .3 7.8 1995 1.0 1.0 0.8 1 .. 3 5.4 .1 .2 .3 8.1 1996 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.3 5.8 .1 .2 .3 8.5 1997 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 6.2 .1 .. 2 .4 8.9 1998 1.0 1.0 O.B 1.2 6.7 .1 .1 .4 9.3 1999 71 150 203 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 7.3 .1 .1 .4 9.7 2000 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 7.8 .1 .1 .5 10.3 2001 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 8.5 .1 .1 .5 11.1 2002 1.0 1.0 0.7 1,,0 9.1 .. 1 .. 1 .5 11.5 (I) V = Villarroel RG = Rio Grande T = Trinidad G Guayaramerin NOTE: All costs, benefits and savings in millions of 1977 pesos.  The IRR for the projects, as summarized in Table 120-2, is 10.3. Close examnation of the figures shows that the Trinidad-Guaya- ramer!n section contributes most of the benefit and that the FYRR on the Villarroel-Trinidad section is only about 7 percent, undiscounted. This, however, is probably an unfair comparison and it can be reasoned that the project must be treated as a whole, since to do only part of the project would required the same level of investment. If the very high cost of the boat and equipment is reduced the project would be more viable. A reduction in costs of one third, as has been suggested, is likely increase the IRR to about 14 percent. .. II -529-  APPENDIX 12E EVALUATION OF THE RAILROAD FROM RIO GRANDE TO TRINIDAD  Appendix 12E EVALUATION OF THE RAILROAD FROM RIO GRANDE TO TRINIDAD CONTENTS The Project 531 Methodology 531 Estimation of Volumes 532 Calculation of Benefits 533 Evaluation of Rio Grande-Trinidad Line 540 TABLES Number Page 12E-l Allocation of Cochabamba-Trinidad 534 Highway Movements to the Santa Cruz - Trinidad Corridor 12E-2 Calculation of Benefits, Road-Rail 536 Comparison, Agricultural Products 12E-3 Calculation of Benefits, Road-Rail 537 Comparison, Non-Agricultural Products 12E-4 Calculation of Benefits, River-Rail 538 Comparison, Agricultural Products 12E-5 Calculation of Benefits, River-Rail 539 Comparison, Non-Agricultural Products -530-  EVALUATION OF THE RAILROAD FROM RIO GRAN.DE TO TRINIDAD This project was discussed in Chapter 12 of the Report where the results of the evaluations were presented. The puerpose of this Appendix is to present the assumptions made in the evaluation in more detail. The Project Construction of the planned line from Santa Cruz to Tri- nidad started in the 1970s and the first two sections to Santa Rosa and to Yapacan! were completed in 1976 and 1978 respectively. A third section from Yapacan! to R!o Grande was started in late 1980 and is expected to be completed by 1985. The project from Rio Grande to Trinidad represents the final section of this railroad. The line from R!o .Grande to Trinidad would be 149 km long and is estimated to cost 1,003 million pesos (in 1977 prices). Methodology The basis for the evaluation methodology was presented in Appendix 3H -- Evaluation of New Modes on Existing Links -- but several complioations arise. These were due first to the formulation of the transport networks used for transport demand forecasting and secondly to the fact that four modes CQuid potentially serve this corridor: one already in existence -- the river, one now under construction -- a road, one partly built where extension is the subject of this evaluation -- the railroad and one other potential mode -- a petroleum product pipeline. Concerning the transport network, two sets of results were available for 1989, the Committed Network and the Test Network. The rail project was included in the Test Network but so also was the Cochabamba-Trinidad road, which has a strong influence also on the Santa Cruz-Trinidad corridor. The Committed Network contained neither of these projects. It was decided that the rail line should be evaluated assuming that the Cochabamba-Trinidad road was not built. The reasoning was that justification of this road appeared to be unlikely (an assumption since proved to be wrong -- see Appendix 12C) and that in any case, the presence of the Cochabamba-Trinidad road would reduce the benefits of the railroad. Therefore to give the maximum chance of success to the railroad, it was assumed that the Cochabamba-Trinidad -531-  l#- road would not be built, and therefore the Test Network traffic forecasts had to be modified to remove the influence of the Cochabamba-Trinidad road. The volumes forecast on the " railroad were based on the low domestic traffic postulated for the 1989 computer model tests. Concerning the competition between the four potential competing modes, the following decisions were made. The product pipeline was evaluated first and it was quickly established that there was no hope of justification in the next twenty years on present forecast volumes. Therefore, all the petroleum product movements were assumed to use the rail- road and then, if necessary, the river. Without the project, transfer to river would be at R!o Grande and with the project, transfer would be at Trinidad (for products moving further than Trinidad). As a result of this treatment of the pipeline, three modes were left in competition - the railroad, the river and the highway. The full complexity of three-way evaluation could not be contemplated and so 'an approximation was made. The total volume in the corridor was first divided into road-biased movements and river-biased movements. Then,two sets of benefit calcula- tianswere made, one for the new railroad in competition with the river and one for the new railroad in competition with the road. The two sets of benefits were then added to obtain the total benefit for the project. These calculations covered ·It. non-petroleum product internal traffic only; additional benefits were calculated for foreign trade traffic and also for petroleum products traffic. Estimation of Volumes Volumes on the 1989 Committed Network corresponded to the without-project case. For the with-project case,volumes on the 1989 Test Network were modified to remove the influence of the Cochabamba-Trinidad Highway. The following movements were identified to be using the Cochabamba-Trinidad Highway in the Test Network. "', TONS SECTION MOV. No.VEH. % Total A2ricuItural Non i\:gr!cultural SB-SC 1,544 5 5,699 2,279 3,420 SB-PV 12,112 42 47,867 19,139 28,738 TR-SC 1,164 4 4,559 1,823 2,736 TR-CB 1,568 6 6,838 2,734 4,104 TR-PV 8,556 30 34,191 13,675 20,520 Subtotal 24,944 87 99,154 39,646 59,508 Other mov. 13 Total 100 113,970 45,570 68,400 . SB=San Borja SC=Santa Cruz PV=Puerto Villarroel TR=Trinidad CB=Cochabamba " -532- JIo • /iii  Taking into account the sector to sector costs by the different modes, a part of these movements were re-assigned to the three modes in the Santa Cruz-Trinidad corridor. The results of this re-assignment are shown in Table 12E-l. Therefore the volumes in the Santa Cruz-Trinidad corridor after this adjustment can be mmmarized as follows: VOLUMES BY LINK River Rail CASE PRODUCT Road PV-RG RG-TR SC-RG RG-TR ---rThousands of tons, 1989) Without Project Agricultural 30 21 22 1 Nrn-Agricultural 50 27 58 31 With Project Agricultural 25 15 15 13 13 Nrn-Agricultural 32 26 26 51 51 Symbols as above, also RG=R!o Grande. Calculation of Benefits As described above, the calculation of benefits for internal non-petroleum products was made in two parts, considering first the benefits of traffic transferring from road to rail, and then the benefits to traffic transferring from river to rail. This was a compromise calculation to avoid the problems of a three-way modal diversion procedure. The method of calculation for each part of evaluations, followed that method set out in Appendix 3H - Evaluation of New Modes on Existing Links. The benefit calculation for the road-rail case used the demand curves shown in Figure 3H-2 and the benefit coefficient in Table 3H-3. In the river-rail case, the demand curve and benefits shown in Figure 3H-3 and Table .3H-4 respectively were used, equating the new rail line with the"road" and the existing river as the "rail". This follows the extended use of the diversion curves, originally based on road-rail competition data, to model road-river and rail-river modal choice, as explained in Appendix 3H. One problem arose with this compromise calculation. The modal choice procedure as followed in the model resulted in a certain allocation of traffic between the three modes in the Santa Cruz-Trinidad corridor. In attempting to divide these volumes into road biased and river biased movements, so as to obtain two separate evaluations and thus avoid a three-way modal choice, it was impossible to obtain volumes entirely consistant with the modal costs in the two sub-cases. That is to say, on -533-  Table 12E-l ALLOCATION OF COCHABAMBA-TRINIDAD HIGHWAY MOVEMENTS TO THE SANTA CRUZ-TRINIDAD CORRIDOR (Tons per year) SC-TR SECTOR MOVEMENTS HIGHWAY RAIL RIVER Agr icu 1 tur a1 Products SB-SC SB-PV - 'I'" 471 1.154 'I'" TR-SC .1,285 416 'I'" TR-CB .1,625 276 .- TR-PV Subtotal 2,910 - .- 1,163 2,174 3,328 Test Network Volume 22,:,170 11,610 11,760 Total 25,380 12,773 15,088 Non-Agricultural Products II SB-SC SB-PV .1,055 2,365 3,833 7,670 - TR-SC 795 1,497 444 TR-CB 932 2,060 1,112 TR-PV 9,255 11,265 Subtotal 12,037 9,755 20,491 Test Network Volume 19,890 41,040 5,730 Total 31,927 50,795 26,221 SB = San Borja SC = Santa Cruz PV = Puerto Vi11arroe1 TR = Trinidad CB ::: Cochabamba -534- '. the basis of a simple river-rail cost comparison in one case. and a simple road-rail comparison in the other, the "river biased" and "road biased" voltunes could not be allocated to the t.hree modes in the same manner as the full modal allocation procedure predicted. This was a result of the step-by-step allocation procedure used in the model. The problem was nost serious for the road-rail canparison and relatively minor for the river-rail case. Thus, two values could be calculated for x,the percentage of traffic using rail, one based on a simple comparison of two modal costs (road and rail in one case, river and rail in the other), and one based on the original modal allocation and its subsequent division in road and river biased movements. For the road-rail evaluation, where the differences were most serious, two sets of evaluations were completed, one for each set of values for x. The results of the evaluation using the two different sets of values, turned out to be almost identical. The benefit calculations are set out in detail in Tables 12E-2 to 12E-5 and can be summarized as follows: AL'IEmATIVE CALaJIATICNS OF BENEFITS A B (1977 pesos) Road-Rail:Agricultural 2,363,733 2,323,331 Non-Agricultural 4,813,286 5,268,335 River-Rail:Agricultural 927,948 927,948 Non-Agricultural 4,008,739 4,008,739 Total 12,113,706 12,528,353 Case A corresponds to the modal diversion based on a two-way modal cost comparison (road-rail and river-rail) and case B corresponds to the modal diversion given by transport model, when considering all three modes. Benefits to Other Traffic - Other traffic voltunes were estimated as follows: SANTA CRUZ-TRINIDAD SANTA CRUZ-GUAYARAMERIN (tons per year, 1989) Petroleum Products 18,690 22,300 Exports 13,600 3,700 Imports 3,530 35,820 26,000 It was assumed that all this traffic would move by rail and would gain the benefit of the full cost difference between the "before"and "after" situation.Benefits were calculated as follows: -535-  Table 12E-2 CALCULATION OF BENEFITS FOR THE RIO GRANDE-TRINIDAD RAILROAD (Road-Rail Comoarison, Aqricu1tura1 Products) alSTS WITH- alSTS 'KNS our PFC\JECT % TRAFFIC WITH % TRAFFIC wrmour PIDJECT 'KNS 'KNS Road Rail BY RAIL PIDJECT BY RAIL Railroad Road WITH ProJECT TONS TCYrAL 'IOTAL SECroR PER YEAR _A_ ~ ~ ~~ Yl Y2 ~ 2 L llaHroad Road GENERATED 'KNS ANNUAL BENEFITS LP-TR 5,330 1,093 1,040 11.4 863 31.2 15.75 32.98 608 4,722 1,663 3,667 125 5,455202,909 GY-SC 632 2,147 1,238 50.2/8.7 1,173 50.6/9.7 46.51/12.8146.70/14.01 55 577 61 571 3 635 20,283/12,473 GY-PTS 257 2,333 1,430 49.9/28.8 1,365 50.2/33.9 46.34/31.08 46.65/35.08 74 183 87 170 4 ,261 9,213/10,988 SB-SC 1,395 1,514 1,203 30.3/9.6 1,127 17.3/10.6 32.28/13.90 37.63/14.97 134 1,261 148 1,247 9 1,404 35,179/17,110 SB-TJ 590 1,623 1.699 10.0 1. 623 10.6 14.39 14.97 59 531 63 527 3 593 4,303 MG-TJ 631 2,593 1,84942.3/30.3 1.640 49.7/43.941.23/32.2846.21/42.35 191 440 277 354 24 655 61,843/65,201 'rn-CB 2,865 .l,.431 91949.7/6.6 742 50.9/10.146.21/10.2546.85/14.49 189 2,676 289 2,576 45 2,910254,745/133,941 'rn-MI' 3,730 910 769 22.8/8.0 592 49.6/14.8 26.13/11.95 46.15/19.05 298 3,432 552 3,178 B9 3,B19 241,123/145,371 I 'rn-VG 4,146 1,307 82649.7/31.2 649 51.1/49.846.21/32.98 46.94/46.23 1,294 2,852 2,065 2,OB1 353 4,499 382,213/465,479 en w '" 1 'rn-SC 11,102 967 779 28.5/9.1 602 49.8/22.8 30.84/13.29 46.28/26.13 1,011 10,091 2,531 8,571 297 11,399 804,679/933,092 'rn-PTS 532 1,741 971 50.4/43.0 794 51.6/50.2 46.60/41. 72 47.18/46.51 229 303 267 265 51 5B3 50,051/57,052 TR-TJ 1,745 2,029 1,27549.8/41.5 1,098 50.6/49.846.28/40.6746.70/46.28 724 1,021 869 876 117 1,B62 158,498/173,403 GY-PV 2,155 2,355 1,479 49.8/0 1,414 50.0/0 46.28/0 46.41/0 2,155 2,155 o t>t:'.,..PV 4,362 1,749 1,594 14.8/0 1,395 29.4/0 19.05/0 31. 56/0 4,362 4,362 o TR-PV 2,563 1,175 1,020 19.9/0 843 41.5/0 23.66/0 40.67/0 2,563 2,563 o MG-SC 2,527 1,541 1,353 18.9/9.8 1,154 37.3/15.922.76/14.1537.63/20.05 247 2,2BO 402 2,125 43 2,570 138,694/102,009 SB-PV 3,167 1,364 1,444 9.qjO 1,368 10.5/0 13.90/0 14.88/0 o 1DTAL 47,729 5,113 39,449 9,274 35,288 1,163 36,6452,363,733/2,323,331 NOTES: (1) For explanation of synbo1s, see Appendix 3H. (2) In all cases where alternative values are given thus, A/B, A refers to values based on a simple bi-ll'Odal COITpaI'ison and B to values given by the r:odal allocation p~dun:> used in the m::xiel. ill ,f " 'iii ... Oft ., ". . . ... . .. ,. . . lit • .. . It .. .. ,. . .. .. 4ft ." .. iii .. AI; • a, ..  Table 12E-3 CALCULATION OF BENEFITS FOR THE RIO GRANDE-TRINIDAD RAILROAD (Road-Rail Comparison, Non-agricultural Products) a:ETS lffl'H- OJSTS 'IDNS our PIDJEeI' % TRAF'F'IC WITH % TRAF'F'IC lffl'HOur proJECI' 'II:NS 'lWS Fbad Rail BY MIL promeI' BY MIL Railroad :R::lad tffl'H proJECI' 'lWS '!OrAL '!OrAL SECillR PER YEAR ~2.L XJ ~ Xz Yl Y, -YL Railroad :R::lad GENEPATEO ~ BENEFITS LP-TR 6,200 1,093 976 41.9 766 54.3 59.37 68.66 2,598 3,602 3,367 2,833 712 6,912 619,842 r;y-SC 2,151 2,147 1,07555.0/35.0 1,010 63.5/40.4 69.14/53.31 73.24/58.13 753 1,398 869 1,282 49 2.200 82,510/155,973 r;y-PTS 1,733 2,333 1,311 54.7/54.2 1,246 54.9/54.3 68.94/68.60 69.07/68.66 939 794 941 792 49 1,782 63,439/62,187 SB-SC 1,435 1,514 1,051 54.3/33.9 953 54.5/46.9 68.66/56.81 68.80/63.37 558 877 673 762 57 1,492 78,191/89,567 SB-TJ 7,250 1,623 1,646 31.8 1,548 36.6 50.14 54.75 2,305 4,945 2,654 4,596 146 7,396 231,995 KrTJ 1,757 2,593 1,786 54.3/54.1 1,565 54.6/54.4 68.66/68.5368.87/68.73 950 807 956 801 134 1,891 220,254/218,975 TR-CB 2,613 1,431 789 54.8/24.9 579 82.6/50.2 69.00/42.82 81.44/65.88 651 1,962 1,312 1,301 236 2,849 360,859/643,947 TR-Ml' 3,516 910 617 54.4/37.4 407 70.8/54.568.73/55.47 76.47/68.8 1,315 2,201 1,917 1,599 679 4,195 454,664/502,163 I <.n TR-VG 396 1,307 696 54.9/54.3 486 92.2/65.4 69.07/68.66 85.29/74.11 215 181 259 137 93 489 64,088/58,107 w ..... I TR-SC 12 ,390 967 627 54.4/42.6 417 75.7/54.768.73/59.9478.57/68.945,278 7,112 6,777 5,613 2,658 15,048 1,654,125/1,729,047 TR-PTS 1,017 1,741 . 863 55.7/54.5 653 91.3/61.4 69.48/68.8 84.87/72.27 554 463 624 393 178 1,195 168,601/143,565 TR-TJ 5,692 2,029 1,222 54.6/54.3 1,012 55.0/54.768.87/68.6669.14/68.943,091 2,601 3,114 2,578 641 6,333 697,993/695,425 G'i-PV 4,753 2,355 1,327 54.7/0 1,262 54.9/0 68.94/0 69.07/0 4,753 4,753 0 M:l-PV 2,212 1,749 1,453 47.5/0 1,232 54.3/0 63.83/0 68.66/0 2,212 2,212 0 TR-PV 10,057 1,175 879 54.2/0 669 54.7/0 68.60/0 68.94/0 10,057 10,057 0 W,.-SC 949 1,541 1,20152.8/38.3 980 54.5/54.1 67.64/56.27 68.8/68.53 363 586 513 436 82 1,031116,725/117,542 SB-PV 4,333 1,364 1,303 36.6/0 1,205 42.6/0 54.75/0 59.94/0 0 '!OrAL 68,454 19,570 44,551 23,976 40,145 5,714 52,813 4,813,286/5,268,335 NC1I'ES: (1) For explanation of sy!T'bols, see Appendix 3H. (2) In all cases where alternative values are given thus, A,/l3, A refers to values based on a siJTple bi-modal CDTparilion and B to values given by the rrcdal allocation proCEdure used in the rrodel.  Table 12E-4 CALCULATION OF BENEFITS FOR THE RIO GRANDE-TRINIDAD RAILROAD (River-Rail Comparison, Agricultural Products) CDSTS WITH- CDSTS 'lOOS our PIDJEcr % TRAFFIC WITH % TRAFFIC v;rrnour 'lOOS PIDJEcr 'lOOS Rl.ver Rail BY RAIL PR:lJEcr BY AAIL Railroad River WITH PIDJEcr 'IOOS 'lUI'AL 'lUI'AL SECTOR PER YEAR _._A_ ~ -----2!l ~~ Y1 Y2 ~ ~ Railroad ~ ver GENERMED 'IWS 1INNUAL BENEFITS LP-TR 0 1,196 1,040 19.9 863 41. 5 82.93. 99.77 o 0 GY-SC 448 1,107 1,238 8.7 1,173 9.4 39.17 42.14 39 409 43 405 2 450 13,615 G{-PTS 33 1,768 1,430 28.5 1,365 33.9 111. 75 128.28 9 24 11 22 o 33 7,823 S8-SC 165 1,132 1,203 9.6 1,127 10.6 42.99 47.08 16 149 17 148 1 166 7,005 SB-TJ o 2,194 1,699 33.0 1,623 38.2 125.58 140.48 o o ID-TJ 69 2,334 1,849 30.3 1,640 43.9 117.48 155.43 21 48 30 39 3 72 51,186 'IR-CB 1,. 470 720 919 6.6 742 10.1 30.28 45.08 97 1,373 149 1,321 23 1,493 136,701 'IR-MI' 351 651 769 8.0 592 14.8 36.21 63.88 28 323 52 299 8 359 54,683 I 'm-VG 414 1,048 826 31.2 649 49.8 120.18 168.13 129 285 206 208 35 449 188,577 Ul W 00 I 'm-SC 1,058 708 779 9.1 602 22.8 40.87 92.93 96 962 241 817 28 1,086 323,978 'm-PTS 63 1,369 971 43.1 794 50.2 153.39 168.84 27 36 32 31 6 69 15,274 'm-TJ 185 1,770' 1,275 41.5 1,098 49.8 149.31 168.13 77 108 92 93 12 197 60,248 G{-PV 2.225 738 1,479 o 1,414 0.1 o o 2,225 2,225 o ID-PV 2,148 913 1,594 1.6 1,395 3.7 7.52 17.39 2,148 2,148 o 'm-PV 2,503 339 1,020 o 843 o o o 2,503 2,503 o ID-SC 263 1,282 1,353 9.8 1,154 15.9 43.83 68.03 26 237 42 221 5 268 68,858 S8-PV 690 763 1. 444 0.4 1,368 1.3 1. 88 6.11 690 690 o 'IOTAL 12,085 565 11,520 915 11,170 123 4,570 927,948 NOl'E: For explanation of syTTbols, s<:-'€ Appendix 3H. ;. -= ;, = .:: -- # ::. -~ =. -= :, ,= :;;: ::: =-- C . .. .. II It • " . • 'iii ~ . ., 4t .. *'  Table 12E-5 Cl'::,CU-:.,~~',,)·' )r:--r T"TT: "·n "';" "1:0 G':7,'I[1E-TllT:HD.~!" :U\ILROAD (River-Rail Ccr!parison, Non-agricultural Products) <l.)STI; lml:- cn1T; 'l't:R) CJ.Jr Pl'OJ!X:l' % Tr'J':'PIr' ~lTI"1 ~. ~:Pr.c;"'C 'I'CN) 'I1:NS lbad River BY "~J:T, PJnJ!!.,(,,:,,!":'! ".''-;J "'Tl'H PmJECr 'l'CNS 'lUl'l\L 'I!:7l2\L ~ ~ _._A_ ~ _ _ ~ -1!.L ___ ~ ____ ~:1 ___ ..___yL_. ~_ ~ Pa:{ll'Oad ~ c»lE:IOOm 'lQ'lS 1\NNtl1\L lBIEFl'l'S LP-TR o 1,196 976 49.6 766 54.5 115.52 121.57 o Gr-9:: 2,579 1,107 1,075 35.0 1,010 40.~ 85.97 97.35 903 1,676 1,042 1,537 58 2,637 245,639 G'i-PTS 1,367 1,768 1,311 54.2 1,246 54.3 121.21 121.33 741 626 742 625 39 1,406 50,060 SB-SC 1,035 1,132 1,051 38.9 953 46.9 94.16 110.80 403 632 485 550 41 1,076 158,586 SB-'I'J o 2,194 1,646 54.1 1,548 54.3 121.09 121.33 o M"rTJ 913 2,334 1,786 54.1 1,565 54.4 121.09 121.45 494 419 497 416 70 983 116,858 I U1 w m-cs 3,117 720 789 24.9 579 50.2 63.78 116.46 776 2,341 1.565 1,552 281 3,399 928,710 \'f' 'l'R-M!' 1,961 651 617 37.4 407 54.5 91.01 121.57 733 1,228 1,069 892 378 2,339 446,961 'rn-VG 214 1. 048 696 54.4 486 65.5 121.45 133.58 116 98 140 74 50 264 44,793 'rn-9:: 6.910 708 627 42.6 417 54.7 102.19 121.80 2,944 3,966 3.780 3,130 1,483 8.393 1,360,757 'rn-PTS 683 1.369 863 54.5 653 61.4 121.57 129.26 375 313 422 266 121 809 130,740 'm-TJ 2,958 1,770 1,222 54.3 l,.012 54.7 121.33 121.80 1,606 1,352 1,618 1,340 333 3,291 369,631 G'i-PV 11,197 738 1,327 6.7 1,262 7.7 18.67 21.35 11,197 11,197 o I'G-PV 2,638 913 1,453 10.0 1,232 15.4 27.53 41. 32 2,638 2,638 o TR:-PV 12,241 339 879 3,4 669 4.1 9.59 11.56 12,241 12,241 o \{""~sc 511 1,282 1,201 38.2 990 54.1 92.69 121.09 195 316 276 235 44 555 156,004 $-PV 5,107 763 1,303 8.2 1,205 10.0 22.70 27.53 5,107 5,107 o =AL 53,436 9,286 44,150 11,636 41,800 2,998 25,151 4,008,739 t=: For ex;:ola.'1ation of sy;Tb::>Ls, see }\pp?ndi> 3R.  Ii COSTS BY RAIL ROUTE II MOVEMENT VOLUME Before Alter DIllerence BENEFIT (Tons) (1977 pesos) (1977 pesos) SC-TR 35,820 437 227 210 7,522,200 SC-GY 26,000 885 820 65 1,690,000 Total 61,820 9,212,200 Savings in Maintenance Costs - It was estimated that constructIon ol the railroad would cause 8,567 tons per year to switch from road to rail, or the equivalent of 4 vehicles per day_ The annual variable costs of maintenance are given by the following formulae: Road 1.5x 12 x V x W x D Rail 0.9 x 0.015 'x T x D Where: V= volume in vehicles per day W= road width in meters T = tons per year D= distance in km. II Variable costs of maintenance for the two modes can be calculated as follows: Road = 1.5 x 12 x 4 x 9 x546 = $b 0.35 million Rail = 0.9 x 0.015 x 55,699 x 437 = $b 0.32 million Savings in maintenance $b 0.03 million. Evaluation of R!o Grande-Trinidad Line The 1989 FYRR is given by the following formulae: FYRR = B - F x 100% C Where: B = benefits in 1989 F = fixed costs in 1989 C = costs of construction. Benefits - These can be assumed as follows, taking only the most lavorable case for internal non-petroleum product traffic. -540-  Internal traffic 12.5 Petroleum products, imports, exports 9.2 Savings in variable maintenance 0.03 $b 21. 7 million Fixed Costs - Two sets of fixed costs apply, one for generar--bperations,and one for maintenance. Fixed costs of operation = 149 x (107,500 x 1.2) = 19.2 Fixed costs of maintenance = 149 x (23,000 x 0.9) = 3.1 $b 22. 3million Costs - Construction is expected to take four years, so that at a 12 percent discount rate, the sum of the yearly construction costs must be factured by 1.16 to obtain an equivalent single year cost. = 1,153.6 x 1.16 = $b 1,338 million Calculation of FYRR - The FYRR for 1989 can now be calculated as follows: 21. 7 - 22.3 x 100 = -0.05%., 1,338 -541-  APPENDIX 13A ASSUMPTIONS ON THE COSTS OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS  Appendix l3A ASSUMPTIONS ON THE COSTS OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS CONTENTS Classes of Cost 543 Conversion of Costs to 1985 543 Construction Costs of Rehabilitation 544 Track Maintenance Costs 549 Operating Costs 550 Train Accident Costs 550 Costs of Other Repairs to Infrastructure 553 TABLES Number Page 13A-1 Initial Equations for the Cost of Rehabilitation 546 Projects 13A-2 Assumed Costs of Rehabilitation 548 13A-3 Variable Operating Costs, 1989, Rail Passenger 551 Traffic 13A-4 Variable Operating Costs, 1989, Rail Goods 552 Traffic -542-  ASSUMPTIONS ON COSTS FOR THE EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS The purpose of this Appendix is to record the. assumptions made on costs required to evaluate rehabilitation projects for railroads. Cost data have been taken from a number of sources, some of them published but most of them in the form of informal notes. For this reason, it is worthwhile to bring all the relevant facts together for detailed review. The costs discussed in this paper refer to basic track rehabilitation. The special needs for track realignment to avoid difficult zones subject to earth slides or flooding are not considered here, but such projects were evaluated. Also not considered in this note is the need to re-align certain very sharp curves to 'avoid excessive costs of track maintenance and rail replacement. Classes of Cost A rehabilitation project implies a partial reconstruction of the track requiring substantial investment, The size of the investment is determined by the extent of the rehabilitation work, and a range exists between simple "revision" (see below) to a major realignment of the track. The purpose of rehabilitation project is to reduce the costs of maintenance and the costs of train operations. Also, a reahabilitation project, by improving the condition of the track, reduces the number of derailments and other accidents. It has been suggested that without a rehabilitation project, rail lines would have to close down but this does not seem to be the prevailing view now. In general, then, fou~ c1ases of costs can be identified as follows: 1) Construction costs of rehabilitation. 2) Track maintenance costs, before and after rehabilitation. 3) Operating costs, before and after . rehabilitation. 4) Costs of accidents caused by the bad state of the unrehabi1itated track~ Conversion of Costs to 1985 For evaluating rehabilitation works over the next ten years, it was decided to work in terms of 1985 costs. The costs presented -543- in this .Appendix have not been adjusted to 1985 levels, partly because it is perhaps easier to appreciate the reality of the costs by presenting them in current, or near current, terms. However, factors are presented below which where used to adjust the costs presented in this paper, before evaluations were undertaken. Construction costs 1977-1985 1.14 Maintenance costs 1979-1985 0.9 Operating costs 1989-1985 0.95 Accident costs 1979-1985 0.9 It is emphasized that the evaluation is in terms of economic costs at constant 1977 pesos values. The adjustment factors listed above are designed to reflect changes in costs relative to average costs and do not include allowance for infla- tion. Thus, adjustments from 1979 to 1985 take into account that 1979 values are inflated above 1977 values so that the final adjust:Itent to 1985 price levels in constant 1977 pesos is a downward one. Construction Costs of Rehabilitation Three levels of rehabilitation have been identified for evaluation. One is the type of rehabilitation currently being undertaken by ENFE with World Bank assistance, and this has been termed "reconstruction"~ Then there is a lower level of rehabilitation termed "revision". This implies use of already used materials obtained from other track rehabilitation and confines ballasting of the track to certain locations. Finally, there is a higher level of rehabilitation which includes substantial realignment of the track which normally results in the same types of saving as for other projects plus higher operating speeds. These three levels of rehabilitation are summarised below: 1. Revision - A low grade rehabilitation en:ploying where possible, used materials from other rehabilitated lines. Ballasting is not generally provided, except where corrections of alignment are required. Where necessary, the track is re- leveled with selected sand placed under the sleepers. Switch pOints in stations are replaced to permit higher operat- ing speeds for through trains. This is an operation particularly suitable for lightly used lines. 2. Reconstruction - Essentially the type of work currently being performed by ENFE on certain sections. Defective materials, particularly sleepers and if necessary, rails 'III are replaced, rails are welded into 40 m sections and the track is fully ballasted. Switch points in stations are also replaced to permit higher operating speeds by through trains. -544- .. ' 3. Re-alignment - A higher grade operation with the aim of eliminating tight curves to allow higher operating speeds. This is done at the same time as reconstruction of the track, and all costs given below for re-alignment reflect both operations. Clearly, there are other levels of rehabilitation, both within and outside this range of projects, but these three levels were considered to represent an appropriate set for evaluation. A major consideration when estimating the costs of rehabilitation is whether or not rails are to be replaced. Is is understood that in the current rehabilitation progam, rails are only being replaced when in poor condition. It would appear that rail replacement should be treated in~dent­ ly of track rehabilitation, and should not be included in the cost of rehabilitation when evaluatinq sudhschemes. Hence rail replacement cost~ have been excluded from consideration on the basis that this is really a part of long term maintenance and is required whether or not the track is rehabilitated. Rehabilitation does include welding of rails into longer lengths and, pf course, a rehabilitation operation can include replacement of rail if this is necessary. Replacement of sleepers, however, is more fudarnental to a track rehabilitation and these costs are included. Cost estimates of reha~ilitations were made by the Study rail expert Dr. Antonio Cresp!, taking into account the state of the sleepers. Equations for costs are given in Table 13A-l. These costs are considerably higher than those recently experienced by ENFE wh~ch are quoted below. 1979 COSTS IN PESOS PER KM ITEM Altiplano Eastern Rehabilitation (1) with rail repla~t 1,802,845 1,909,340 Rehabilitation (1) w1thlUt rail replac::arent 957,200 1,028,400 (1) To the level of "reconstruction". SOURCE: Memos by EN FE representative on National Transport Study Therefore, the ENFE figures were used as a basis for costs and the Cresp! figures were used as indicators of relative costs for different regions and types of rehabilitation. To compare with the Cresp! estimates, the ENFE figures must be -545-  Table 13A-l INITIAL EQUATIONS FOR THE COST OF REHABILITATION PROJECTS (thousand of 1977 pesos) ALTIPLANO MOUNTAINS EASTERN a b a b a b Revision 965 1.1 1940 4.0 1260 1.4 Reconstruction 1006 3.6 2870 2.6 1480 2.8 Realignment 1406 3.6 6370 2.6 1980 2.8 I U1 ~ 0'1 I NOTE: Equation is of the form: Cost per km = a + b x (percent sleepers in poor condi tion ) • . Thus for reconstruction on an Altiplano line where 30 percent of the sleepers are in poor condition: Cost = 1006 + 3.6 x 30 = 1114 thousand pesos per km. •• ~. ~ J • j ~ 4 ~. •• •• ~ 4 ~. 4 ~ 4 ~. •• •• _. •• • ~ ~ ~ •• adjusted to 1977 values (factor by 0.8). Revised rehabilita- tion costs are given below, assuming that all sleepers are re- placed. COSTS OF REHABILITATION PROJECT Alti*lano Mountains Eastern (t ousands of 1977 pesos per km) Revision 603 1,203 654 Reconstruction 766 1,609 823 Realignment 991 3,408 1,055 According to ENFE, sleepers are completely replaced in all rehabilitations, but those which are in good condition can be re-used in routine maintenance. Therefore costs should be modified to reflect the salvage value of sleepers. Assuming that the salvage value is 30 percent of the new cost of 184 pesos per sleeper (1979), and that on average, 1600 sleepers per km are required, the salvage value per km can be related to the percentage of sleepers in poor condition by the following formulae: Salvage Value = 883 [100 - pJ pesos per km (1979) Where P = percent sleepers in poor condition. Other materials can also be salvaged which have a reuse value. Data given by ENFE indicate an additional salvage value of 14,150 pesos per km. In 1977 costs, the total salvage value per km is given as: 82,000 - 706 P pesos per km (P as above) and this equation was used to modify (reduce) the basic costs of rehabilitation given above. Table 13A-2 summari~es the percentages of sleepers in poor condition for each line and therefore the cost of each type of rehabilitation. -547-  Table 13A-2 ASSUMED COSTS OF REHABILITATION SLEEPERS IN(2) COST OF REHABILITATION LINE REGION U) LENGTH POOR CONDITION Revision Reconstruction Realignment '[kiii) (%) (Millions of 1977 ~esos) La Paz - El ALto M 17 0 19 26 57 (3) (3) (3 ) El Alto - Viacha A 25 0 (3) (3) (3 ) Viacha - Orura A 204 0 Orure - Machacamarca A 24 60 14 17 26 Machacamarca - R!o Mulato A 184 (4) 49 92 118 157 Rio Mulato - Uyuni A 105 30 57 74 97 I 1Jl .t>- Uyuni - Atocha A 93 20 50 65 86 eD I Atocha - Villaz6n M 196 41 225 305 658 Viacha - Charaia A 207 15 110 144 190 Uyuni - Avarea A 175 52 98 126 166 Oruro - Cochabamba M 211 44 2713 329 708 Cochabamba - Aiquile M 216 50 250. 337 726 Rio Mulato - Potos! M 174 14 197 267 580 Potos! - Sucre M 175 7 191~ 268 583 Viacha - Guaqui A 65 100 38 49 64 santa Cruz - Corumb~ 0 643(5} 19 248 320 418 Santa Cruz - Yacuiba 0 539 20 316 407 531 Santa Cruz - Yapacan! 0 204 0(6) ll7 151 198 (1) A = ALtiplano M == Hountain 0 Eastern (2) Average over line. (3) Rehabilitation completed (4) 18 km already rehabilitated; cost shown is to rehabilitate remainder. (5) 219 km already rehabilitated; cost shown is to rehabilitate remainder. it .. & j .. j 11>. .31 Iii • II Jj it iii .. 41 ... ., Ii . . Ii> .. it iii •• ., . •• .. .  Life of Rehabilitation - For each type of rehabilitation, Crespi assumed a life expressed in terms of total cumulative tons, after which a similar cost of rehabilitation would be incurred as set out above. The exception is for realignment where only the rehabilitation aspects of the initial cost would be recurring. Lifes of the three types of projects are given below by region • PROJECT ALTIPLANO MOUNTAINS EASTERN {millions of tons} Revision 50 15 40 Reconstruction 160 50 130 Realignment 200 100 160 Track Maintenance Costs ENFE state that their current costs of maintenance are not sufficient( to prevent a oontinuing deterioration of the track. Studies have been done by ENFE to indicate the desirable level of costs for the unrehabilitated track to be adequately maintained, and these are considerably higher than current costs. Costs are also available for maintaining a rehabilitated track and these are oonsiderable l<::JWer than either of the previous sets. From the various sources, the following maintenance costs have been deduced. ALTIPLANO MOUNTAINS EASTERN (thousands of 1979 pesos per kIn per year) Current (without rehabilitation) 43 58 51 Desirable Level (without rehabilitation) 80 185 69 After Rehabilitation 22 30 26 At the low volumes of traffic encountered in Bolivia, maintenance costs can be taken as mainly fixed. However, some high volumes are forecast and it was thought worthwhile to identify the variable element. It was indicated that costs varied by 4,12 and 6 percent per 100,000 t-kms respectively for the altiplano, mountain and eastern lines. On the basis of -549-  . • this rough estimate, and assuming that the average annual volume currently on lines on the altiplano, mountains and eastern lines were 300, 100 and 200 thousand tons respectively, the following approximate equations were derived. • ALTIPIJ\NO M)tNTAINS (1979 pesos per kID) Current High Level 38,000 + .017 T 52,000 + .060 T 45,000 + .030 T 71,000 + .030 T 165,000 + .200 T 61,000 + .040 T . After Behabilitation 20,000 + .007 T 27,000 + .030 T 23,000 + .015 T Where T Operating Costs = Traffic flow in tons per year. '. Detailed analyses were made of operating costs and of the effect on costs of the various types of rehabilitation project. Reductions in costs from current conditions arise due to savings lin running time of equipment, savings in crew costs (or, more correctly, greater productivity), reduced wear and tear of .. equipment and fuel savings. Tables 13A-3 and 13A-4 show the assurrptians on operating costs for each line. Costs are assumed for 1989 conditions which are expected to be 9 percent and 19 percent higher thah 1977 costs (in constant pesos terms) for passenger and freight traffic respectively. Also, the base costs shown for lines already rehabilitated refer to the conditions before rehabilitation. Reductions in operating costs are not very great; about ten percent for a revision or reconstruction, and approaching fifteen to twenty percent for a realignment. Train Accident Costs Few data are available on train accident costs, defined .., as any accident involving moving rail equipment, apart from the statement that the cost of accidents due to the poor state of the track for the Andean system in 1979 was 1,990,280 pesos.Exc1uding the rehabilitated .Viacha-Oruro line, this cost can be applied to 330 million t-kms on the Andean system in ... 1974 to arrive to a cost of 0.006 pesos per t-km in 1979. This can be treated as an additional operating cost of unrehabilitated lines. Train accident costs do appear to be very low and pos- sibly, they only refer to minor derailments and do not cover cases where equipment is lost or irreparably damaged. -550-  Tabl~ 13A-3 VARIABLE OPERATING COSTS, 1989, RAIL PASSENGER TRAFFIC ($b. per pass.-km) REHABILITATION SCHEME LlNE CURRENT Revision Feronstruction Realiqnrrent 11. La Paz-El Alto .454 .413 .413 .381 12. El Al to-Viacha .393 .365 .365 .341 13. Viacha.-Qruro .247 .226 .226 .207 14. Otu:ro-Machaca:rrarca .249 .235 .235 .224 15. . M:l.chacama.rca-R!o .174 .158 .158 .145 Mllato 16. .. Rio Mulato-Uytmi .220 .202 .202 .187 17. Uyuni-Atocha .207 .184 .184 .167 18. . Atocha-Villaz6n .268 .237 .237 .210 21. Viacha-charafia .201 .178 .178 .157 31. . Uyuni-QUague .295 .269 .269 .245 41. Oniro-cochaba:mba .170 .149 .149 .128 42. _Cochabamba-Aiqui1e .572 .522 .522 .469 51. Rio Mulato-Potos! .275 .244 .244 .218 52. Potosi-Sucre .419 .389 .389 .350 61. Viacha-Guaqui 1.597 1.388 1.388 1.148 71. Santa Cruz-corurnba' .189 .173 .173 .160 81. Santa Cruz-Yacuiba .177 .162 .162 .149 91. Santa Cruz-Yapacani" .452 .422 .422 .398 -551-  .. Table 13A-4 'VARIABIE OPERATING COS'IS, 1989, RAIL GCXDS TRAFFIC ($b. per ton-kIn) ---- -- -REHABILITATION- SCHEME CURRENr :Revl.sl.on J:<econs'Cructl.on ReaIl.gTll1Ent •• 11. 12. Ia El Al to-Viacha - Paz-E;:1. Alto _. - .437 .340 .418 -.318 •418 .~18 .390 .259 '. 13. Viacha.:-Oruxo- .465 .436 •.4.36 .412 - -- 14. Oruro-Ma.chacarnarca .319 .298 .298 .284 - 15. M3.chacamarca-Rio Mulato .386 .361 .361 .340 16. RCo Mulato-Uyuni .295 -.276 .276 .262 '''' 17. Uyuni-Atocha .370 .354 .354 .333 18. Atocha-Vi11az6n .443 -.423 .423 .400 21. Viacha-charana .524 .504 .504 .473 31. Uyuni-ollague .259 .242 .242 .229 41... Oruro-cochabamba .365 -.349 .349 .322 4·2, Cochabarriba-Aiquile· 1.176 1-.129 1.129 1.039 51. Rio Mulato-Fbtos! .388 .372 .372 • 341 • 52. Potos!-Sucre ·1.549 1-.490 1.490 1.379 •• 61. Viacha-Guaqui 4.129 -3.778 3.778 3.513 71- Santa Cruz-con.nnba .217 .199 .199 .187 81. Santa Cruz-Yacuiba .240 -.222 .222 .209 91- Santa Cruz-Yapaca.n! .202 .186 .:h86 .174 . '. '!III -552- '. Costs of Other Repairs to Infrastructure Other disruptions, caused by such natural causes as floods or landslides which do not involve moving equipment, also require repair. It was assumed that these special repairs are additional to the cost of the track maintenance as set out earlier section, including the desirable level track maintenance costs estimated by ENFE to prevent track deterioration. These costs are, of course, unaffected by the types of rehabilita- tion discussed in this Appendix. . -553-  APPENDIX 13B EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS  Appendix 13B EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS TABLES Number 13B-l Evaluation of Railroad 556 Rehabilitation 1980 13B-2 Evaluation of Railroad 557 Rehabilitation 1989 - Low Traffic 13B-3 Evaluation of Railroad 558 Rehabilitation 1989 - High Traffic -554-  EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS Tables 13B-1 to 13B-3 set out th~ details of the evaluation of railroad projects which is summarized in Chapter 13. Evalua- tions are presented for three cases as follows: 1980 (based on 1979 traffic) 1989 Low traffic, assuming that freight tariffs continue as at present 1989 High traffic, assuming that freight traffic increases to the levels forecast by the Study with a new low tariff policy (see Chapter 17). For both the 1989 cases, passenger volumes are assumed to double from 1980. All construction costs and benefits are based on the assump- tions set out in Appendix 13A. -555-  • Table 13B-l EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION - 1980 FIXED FREIGHT TRAFFIC PASSENGER TRAFFIC FIRST YEAR SECTION PROJECT COST Unit Unit TOTAL RATE OF Name ~ Cost SAVING VolumeBenefit Total Volume Benefit Total BENEFIT RETURN $b ~ 1'ffiOiiiiiid 1Tb7Tnf ('Il1ousand 1'ffiOiiiiiid C$bi'Paii9I "('HiiUSairl ~ (Percent) (Millions) (MilUona) tona) $b) Pass) Pass) (Million) La Paz-El Alto 17 Revision 22 2.1 76 3.2 246.8 153 0.7 101. 4 2.45 11.1 Reconst. 30 2.1 3.2 246.8 0.7 101.4 2.45 8.2 Realign. 65 2.1 3.7 280.4 1.2 179.5 2.56 3.9 Oruro-Machacamarca 24 Revision 16 1.1 407 1.1 449.3 247 0.3 83.0 1. 63 10.2 Reconst. 19 1.1 1.1 449.3 0.3 83.0 1. 63 8.6 Realign. 26 1.1 1,.4 576.3 0.6 142.3 1. 82 7.0 Machacamarca-R!o Mulato 166 Revision 105 7.6 410 8.3 3,403 262 2.5 6!>5.0 J.l.66 11.1 Reconst. 135 7." 8.3 3, ,403 2.5 655.0 1,179.0 11. 66 8.6 Realign. 179 '7.6 11.7 A,7'n 4.5 13.58 7.6 Rio Mulato-Uyuni 105 Revision 65 1.8 480 .5.6 2,~88 237 2.2 .21. 4 9·01 13.9 Reconst. 84 5.8 5.6 2,6IS 2.2 521. 4 9.01 10.7 Realign. liJ. J.8 7. J. 3,456 4.0 948.0 10.20 9.2 Uyuni-Atocha 93 Revision IF 4.3 196 3.9 765.6 192 2.0 392.8 5.46 9.6 Reconst. 74 4'.3 3.9 765.6 2.0 392.8 5.46 7.4 Realign. 98 4.3 5.8 1,130.1 3.5 678.5 6.11 6.2 Atocha-Villaz6n 196 Revision 257 24.3 134 37.6 5,042.7 173 5.9 1,017.2 30.36 11.8 Reconst. 348 24.3 37.6 5,042.7 5.9 1,017.2 30.36 8.7 Realign. 750 24.3 41. 9 5,620.5 10.8 1,864.9 31. 79 4.2 Viacha-Charana 207 Revision 125 9.5 85 9.3 791. 8 40 4.6 182.2 10.47 8.4 Reconst. 164 9.5 9.3 791. 8 4.6 182.2 10.47 6.4 ill Realign. 217 9.5 15.5 1,319.6 8.7 347.8 11.17 5.1 Uyuni-Ollague (Avaroa) 175 Revision 112 8.0 425 7.4 3,123.8 14 4.2 58.8 11.18 10.0 'II Reconst. 144 8.0 7.4 3,123.8 4.2 58.8 11.18 7.8 Oruro-Cochabamba 211 Realign. Revision 189 277 8.0 26.2 166 9.5 39.7 4,016.3 6,584.8 270 8.2 4.2 4.2 115.2 1,139.4 1,139.4 12.13 33.92 33.92 6.4 12.2 9.0 • Reconst. 375 26.2 39.7 6,584.8 Realign. 807 26.2 45.2 7,495.6 8.4 2,278.8 35.97 4.5 Cochabamba-Aiquile 216 Revision 285 26.8 12 46.9 562.5 25 10.2 253.8 27.62 9.7 Reconst. 384 26.8 46.9 562.5 10.2 253.8 27.62 7.2 Realign. 828 26.8 65.5 785.4 20.9 523.8 28.11 3.4 Rio Mulato-Potos! 174 Revision 225 21. 6 61 32.9 2,006.0 61 5.0 307.8 23.91 10.6 Reconst. 304 21.6 32.9 2,006.0 5.0 307.8 23.91 7.9 Realign. 661 21.6 37.9 2,313.9 9.4 573.2 24.49 3.7 Potosi-Sucre 175 Revision 225 21.7 15 40.1 601.1 50 4.9 245 22.55 10.0 Reconst. 306 21. 7 40.1 601.1 4.9 245 22.55 7.4 Realign. 665 21. 7 58.6 879.4 11. 4 568.8 23.15 3.5 Viacha-Guaqui 65 Revision 43 3.0 52 23.4 1,216.8 12.9 38.6 4.26 9.9 Reconst. 56 3.0 23.4 1,216.8 12.9 38.6 4.26 7.6 Realign. 73 3.0 39.8 2,068.6 27.7 83.1 5.15 7.1 Santa Cruz-CorumbS 424 Revision 283 22 228 28.9 6,597.2 220 10.3 2,263.4 30.86 10.9 Reconst. 365 22 28.9 6,597.2 10.3 2,263.4 30.86 8.5 Realign. 477 22 36 8,209.8 18 3,960.9 34.17 7.2 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 539 Revision 360 18.4 129 24.3 3,128.9 179 7.5 1,350.7 22.88 6.4 Reconst. 464 18.4 24.3 3,128.9 7.5 1,350.7 22.88 4.9 Realign. 606 18.4 30.7 3,963.3 14.0 2,508.5 24.87 4.1 Santa Cruz-Yapacan! 204 Revision 133 3.6 48 4.5 214.7 2.9 17.5 3.83 2.9 Reconst. 172 3.6 4.5 214.7 2.9 17.5 3.83 2.2 Realign. 226 3.6 5.7 274.6 5.1 31. 8 3.91 1.7 -556- Ii.  Table 13B-2 EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION - 1989 LOW TRAFFIC (using current tariffs) FIXED FREIGHT TRAFFIC PASSENGER TRAFFIC FIRS'r Y£L\l' SECTION PB°.:!!:i!:I COST OnH Onit TOTAL RATE or' ~ Cost SAVING Volume Benefit Total Volume Benefit Total RETlJRd ~ N3:ml! $b $b ('ih:i\iSaI'rl 1fb7"fiiT ('i'fiOUSarid (1h)USiii'id ~ ('Il1ousand (percelit' (Millionsl (Millions) tonsl $b) Pass) $b) La Paz-El Al to 17 Revision 22 2.1 374 3.2 1,196.6 306 0.7 214.2 3.51 16.0 Reconst. 30 2.1 3.2 1,196.8 0.7 214.2 3.51 11.7 Realign. 65 2.1 3.7 1,383.8 1.2 367.2 3.85 5.9 Oruro-Machacamarca 24 Revision 16 1.1 445 1.1 489.5 494 0.3 148.2 1. 74 10.9 ReconsL 19 1.1 1.1 469.5 0.3 148.2 1. 74 9.1 Realign. 26 1.1 1.4 623.0 0.6 296.4 2.02 7.8 Machacamarca-Rio Mulato 166 Revision 105 7.,6 431 ·8.3 3,577.3 524 2.5 1,310 12.49 11. 9 Reconst. 13'5 7.6 8.3 3,577.3 2.5 1,310 12.49 9.2 Realign. 179 7.6 11. 6 4,999.6 4.5 2,35<1 14.96 8.4 Rio Mulato-Uyuni 105 Revision 65 5.8 500 5.6 2,800 474 2.2 1,042.8 9.64 14.8 Reconst. 84 5.8 5.6 2,800 2.2 1,042.8 9.64 II. Realign. 111 5.8 7.2 3,600 4.0 1,896 11.30 10.2 uyuni-Atocha 93 Revision 57 4.3 149 3.9 58l.1 384 2.0 768 5.65 9.9 Reconst. 74 4.3 3.9 561.1 2.0 768 5.65 7.6 Realign. 98 4.3 5.8 864.2 3.5 1,344 6.51 6.6 Atocha-Villaz6n 196 Revision 257 24.3 135 37.6 5,076 346 5.9 2,041.4 31.42 12.2 Reconst. 348 24.3 37.6 5,076 5.9 2,041.4 31.42 9.0 Realign. 750 24.3 41.9 5,656.5 10.8 3,736.8 33.69 4.5 Viacha-Charaiia 207 Revision 125 9.5 147 9.3 1,367.1 80 4.6 368 11. 24 9.0 ReconsL 164 9.5 9.3 1,367.1 4.6 368 11. 24 6.9 Realign. 217 9.5 15.5 2,278.5 8.7 696 12.47 5.7 Uyuni-Ollague 175 Revision 112 8.0 364 7.4 2,693.6 28 4.2 ll7.6 10.81 9.7 Reconst. 144 8.0 7.4 2,693.6 4.2 ll7.6 10.61 7.5 Realign. 189 8.0 9.5 3,458 8.2 229.6 11.69 6.2 Oruro-Cochabamba 211 Revision 277 26.2 283 39.7 11,235.1 540 4.2 2,268 39.70 14. Reconst. 375 26.2 39.7 11,235.1 4.2 2,268 39.70 10.6 Realign. 807 26.2 45.2 12,791.6 8.4 4,536 43.53 5.4 Cochabamba-Aiqui1e 216 Revision 285 26.8 12 46.9 562.8 50 10.2 510 27.9 9.B ReconsL 384 26.8 46.9 562.8 10.2 510 27.9 7.3 Realign. 828 26.8 65.5 786.0 20.9 1,045 28.6 3.5 R!o Mu1ato-Potos! 174 Revision 225 21.6 156 32.9 5,132.4 122 5.0 610 27.34 .l..':;. Reconst. 304 21.6 32.9 5,13<.4 5.0 610 27.34 9.0 Realign. 661 21.6 37.9 5,912.4 9.4 1,146.8 28.66 Ll Potosi-Sucre 175 ReVision 225 21.7 48 40.1 1.924.8 100 4.9 490 24.ll IJ.7 Reconst. 306 21.7 40.1 1,924.8 4.9 490 24.ll .9 Realign. 665 21.7 58.6 2,812.8 11.4 1,140 25.65 3.9 Viacha-Guaqui 65 Ro;?v~s1on 43 3.0 106 23.4 2,480.4 6 12.9 77.4 5.56 12. :) Reconst. 56 3.0 23.4 2,480.4 12.9 77.4 5.56 9.5' Realign. 73 3.0 39.8 4,218.8 27.7 166.2 7.39 LO . 1 Sar.ta Cruz-Corum:..r ...! 42. Revision 283 22 732 28.9 21,154.8 440 10.3 4,532 47.69 16. ~ Reconst. 365 22 28.9 21,154.8 10.3 4,532 47.69 13 .1. Realign. 477 22 36 26,351- 18 7,920 56.27 11 S San~a Cruz-Yacuiba 539 Revision 360 18.4 273 24.3 6,633.9 358 7.5 2,685 27.72 .7 Reconst. 464 18.4 24.3 6,633.9 7.5 2,685 27.72 Rec;-.~ign. 606 18.4 30.7 8,381.1 14.0 5,012 31. 79 Sa~ca Cruz-Yapacani 204 Re,·is1.or:. 1.3'> 3.6 112 4.5 504.0 12 2.9 34.8 4.14 itecons-::. 172 3.6 4.5 -14.0 2.9 34.8 4.14 Realig::. 226 ].6 5.7 638.4 5.3 63.6 4.30 -557-  Table l3B-3 EVALUATION OF RAILROAD REHABILITATION - 1989 HIGH TRAFFIC (using the Recommended Test Values) FIXED FREIGHT TRAFFrC PASSENGER TRAFFIC FIRST YFAR SECTION COST Unit On~t TOTAL RATE OF Name SAVING Volume Benefit Total Volume Benefit Total . BENEFIT RETURN $b ~ m?TriT~ ~ ~ ~ ---n;-- (percent) (Millions) (Millions) tons) $bJ Pass) $b) (Million) La Paz-El Alto 17 Revis ion 22 2.1 571 3.2 1,827.2 306 0.7 214.2 4.14 18.8 Reconst. 30 2.1 3.2 1,827.2 0.7 214 .2 4.14 13.8 Realign. 65 2.1 3.7 2,112.7 1.2 367.2 4.58 7.0 Oruro-Machaca~arca 24 !'!evision 16 1.1 641 1.1 705.1 494 Q.3 148.2 1. 95 12.2 Reconst. 19 1.1 1.1 705.1 0.3 148.2 1. 95 10.3 Realign. 26 1.1 1.4 897.4 0.6 296.4 2.29 8.8 Machacamarca-R!o Mulato 166 Revision 105 606 8.3 5,029.8 524 2.5 1,310 13.94 13.3 Reconst. 135 8.3 5,029.8 2.5 1,nO 13.94 10.3 Realign. 179 11.6 7,029.6 4.5 2,358 16.99 9.5 Rio Mulato-Uyuni 105 Revision 65 5.8 641 5.6 3,589.6 474 2.2 1,042 10.43 16.0 Reconst. 84 5.8 5.6 3,589.6 2.2 1,042 10.43 12.4 Realign. III 5.8 7.2 4,615.2 4.0 1,896 12.3 11.1 Uyuni-Atocha Revision 57 4.3 241 3.9 939.9 384 2.0 768 6. 10.5 Reconst. 74 4.3 3.9 939.9 2.0 768 6. 8.1 Realign. 98 4.3 5.8 1,397.8 3.5 1,344 7. 7.2 Atocha-Villaz6n 196 Revision 257 24.3 200 37 .6 7,520 346 5.9 2,041.4 33.9 13.2 Reconst. 348 24.3 37.6 7,520 5.9 2,041.4 33.9 9.7 Realign. 750 24.3 41.9 8,380 10.8 3,736.8 36.4 4.9 Viacha-Charana 207 Revision 125 9.5 148 9.3 1,376.4 80 4.6 368 11. 2 9.0 Reconst. 164 9.5 9.3 1,376.4 4.6 368 11. 24 6.9 Realign. 217 9.5 15.5 2,294 8.7 696 12.49 5.8 Uyuni-Ollague 175 Revision 112 8.0 379 7.4 2,804.6 28 4.2 117.6 10.92 9.8 Reconst. 144 8.0 7.4 2,804.6 4.2 117.6 10.92 7.6 Realign. 189 8.0 9.5 3,600.5 8.2 229.6 11. 83 6.3 Oruro-Cochabamba 211 Revision 277 26.2 517 39.7 20,524.9 540 4.2 2,268 48.99 17.7 Reconst. Realign. 375 807 26.2 26.2 39.7 45.2 20,524.9 23,368.4 4.2 8.4 2,268 4,536 48.99 54.10 13.1 6.7 • Cochabamba-Aiquile 216 Revision 285 26.8 12 46.9 562.8 . 50 10.2 510 27.87 9.8 Reconst~ 384 26.8 46.9 562.8 10.2 510 27.87 7.3 Realign. 828 26.8 65.5 786.0 20.9 1,045 28.63 3.5 Rio Mulato-Potos! 174 Revision 225 21.6 311 32.9 10,231.9 122 5.0 610 32.44 14.4 Reconst. 304 21.6 32.9 10,231.9 5.0 610 32.44 10.7 Realign. 661 21.6 37.9 11,786.9 9.4 1,146.8 34.53 5.2 potod-sucre 175 Revision 225 21.7 127 40.1 5,092.7 100 4.9 490 27.28 12.1 Reconst. 306 21.7 40.1 5,092.7 4.9 490 27.28 8.9 Realign. 665 21.7 58.6 7,442.2 11.4 1,140 30.28 4.6 Viacha-Guaqui 65 Revision 43 3.0 107 23.4 2,503.8 6 12.9 77 .4 5.58 13.0 Reconst. 56 3.0 23.4 2,503.8 12.9 77 .4 5.58 10.0 Realign. 73 3.0 39.8 4,258.6 27.7 166.2 7.42 10.2 Sar.ta Cruz-Corumb~ 424 Revision 283 22 869 28.9 25,114.1 440 10.3 4,532 51. 64 18.2 Reconst. 365 22 28.9 25,114.1 10.3 4,532 51. 64 14.1 Realign. 477 22 36 31,284.0 18 7,920 61. 20 12.8 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 539 Revision 360 18.4 399 24.3 9,695.7 358 7.5 2,685 30.78 8.6 Reconst. 464 18.4 24.3 9,695.7 7.5 2,685 30.78 6.6 Realign. 606 18.4 30.7 12,249.3 14 .0 5,012 35.66 5.9 SGnta Cruz-Yapacan! . 204 Revision 133 3.6 188 4.5 846. 12 2.9 34.8 4.48 3.4 Reconst. 172 3.6 4.5 846. 2.9 34.8 4.48 2.6 Realign, 226 3.6 5.7 1,071.6 5.3 63.6 4.74 2.1 -558- .•  APPENDIX 16A ANALYSIS OF REGULATIONS ON ROAD TRANSPORT  Appendix l6A ANALYSIS OF REGULATIONS ON ROAD TRANSPORT CONTENTS Inventory of Dispositions 560 560 Jurisdiction of the Mini-stry of Transport 561 Definition of Services 561 Licenses (Operating Permits) 562 Vehicles ' 562 Transport Syndicates 562 International Transport 563 Tariffs 563 Taxes imposed on Veh:Lc1es and Transport Companies 564 Transit -559-  ANALYSIS OF REGULATIONS ON ROAD TRANSPORT Inventeryef Dispesiti'ons In Belivia there is nO' general cede that specifically regulates read transpert. The enly general dispositien is Supreme Decree Ne.l0715 which expands the previsiens ef Ministerial Reselutien Ne.49/71, taking intO' account seme aspects ef read transpert. ' The Cede ef Cemmerce affects transpert with regard to' the cemmercial activity, but there are nO' specific previsiens. The mest impertant issues en regulatien are: • Jurisdictien ef the Ministry ef Transpert • Definitien and Classificatien ef Services • Licensing • Vehicles • Syndicates • Internatienal Transpert • Tariffs • Taxes • Transit. Each ef these aspects is discussed belew. Jurisdictien ef the Ministryef Transpert Article 38 ef the Law ef the Executive Pewer (Ley de Orga- nizaci6n Administrativa del Peder Ejecutive), gives the Ministry ef Transpert and Cemmunicatiens the pewer to' centrel infrastructure fer the transpert secter. The Ministry is alsO' to' be respensible fer the registratien and regulatien ef the transpert enterprises (including river). DISPOSITION EXTRACT L.D.Ne.15725(Augu~t 11,79) General Law geverning the Transpert, Cemmunications and Civil Aerenautics secters. Establishes the centralized and decentralized erganizatiens and the Internatienal Joint Cemmissiens. Chapter I describes the functiens ef the Ministry. -560-  • .. nISPOSITION , EXTRACT L.D.No.15725(August 11,781 In Chapter II Article 7 d), the roles are described of the Sub- secretary of Transport and the General Directorates of Railroads, Road Transport, Merchant Marine and Controller of Projects. I '. In Article 25 the functions of the General Directorate of Road Transport are established. S.D.NO.l0715 The public road transport services M.R. 49/71 and are subject to the Ministry of Trans- Regu1ation(December 5, 721 port assisted by the National Transit Service, (Arts.3,5). The regulations of the prefectures or municipalities should be in harmony with those of the Ministry of Transport (Art.4). Definition of Services DISPOSITION EXTRACT S.D.No.l071S Defines the public service of Road (January 1,73} Transport. M.R. 49/711 (March 21,71J Regulation Defines non-public services: (December S,72) Private Transport, (points a,c,d Art.20 point b}. Funeral services (Transport) and Ambulances (point e). Licenses . (Operating' Pe'rm:tt's) DISPOSITION . EXTRACT M.. R.. 49/71 and public services will be under the Regu1at:ton control of the syndicates (Arts.2 and (Oecember S, 72) ll). L:tcenses will be issued by the Ministry of Transport and will be in force for 5 years (Art.9 and 10 of the re,gulation}. Pas.senger services will be granted to either syndicates or private companies (Art.121. Entrance of drivers to the syndicates is restricted (Art.3}. '. -561- Vehicles DISPOSITION . EXTRACT 5.0.13362 (February 14,76) Dmport restrictions 5.0.13759 (July 20,76) Private licenses 5.0.13103 (November 114 75) Reduction of taxes for the Confedera- 5.0.13844 (August 11, 76) tion of Syndicates. 5.0.16755 (July 11,79) Modifies the customs duties for imports. 5.0.14395 (March 1(1,"77) Restriction on imports of vehicles S.0.11771 (July 9, 74) Rstablishes limits on axle loads and vehicle size. DISPOSITION EXTRACT M. R. 49/71 (April 21,71) Public road transport is to be control- led by syndicates (Art. 2) • S.0.10715(February 1~73) Access to the syndicate is restricted to persons that have drivers qualifi- cations. (Art.3). Internati'onal Transport DISPOSITION EXTRACT Agreement on road transport Establishes the rules for this type of within the countries of the service (ratified by Bolivia~.Not in Cono Sud force. Act of the Joint Commission Issue of operating permits for: of Permanent Coordination a) Bilateral traffic to border between Bolivia and Argen- towns tina (May 23,80) .- bl Transit traffic 0) The free zone of Rosario dl Intermodal traffic. Agreement on road freight Defines the terminus locations for and passenger transport be- operators in both countries. tween Bolivia and Argentina Fixes compulsory border transit points. (May 23, SO) Establishes a special system for review- ing permits using telex. -562-  .. • Although there are passenger and carqo services between Bolivia and Peru, there are no international agreements to regulate • if them. ' Tariffs DISPOSITION EXTRACT • The Law of the Executive Sets out the powers of the Ministry • Power of Transport, Communications and Civil • Aeronautics. The General Law of the Establishes the regulation of tariffs Transport, Communications, of all services as a function of the and Civil Aeronautics sec- Ministry of Transport, Communications tor (Art. 5, point d} and Civil Aeronautics. Taxes impoS'edon Vehicles 'and Transport Companies • The main taxes that are imposed on the activity of road transport are mentioned below. 1. Registration and inscription of the purchase value: 5% V + 20% (5%) V Surcharge destined to universities. 2. Purchase of License plates: $b 20. 3. Purchase of Vehicle Registration Cards at the National Transit Service: $b 40. • 4. Tax of 2 percent on the vehicle's value for each year, taking into account a depreciation of 10 percent per annum. From the 10th year on, an annual ~ax is paid on the residual value determined by the Revenue Office. 5. Transport companies, and proprietors of more than two vehicles, are subject to the tax imposed by the Revenue Office and also to the tax on services rendered, • the latter insted of the tax quoted in 4 above. 2% on revenue from domestic services for passengers andl or cargo 3% on revenue from international services for cargo 10% on revenue from international passenger services 25% on net profits. -563- Ai  6. Companies and Agencies transporting freight and parcels a) To and from inside the country : $b 1,200 b) To and from outs.ide the country: $b 2,000. 7. Companies and Agencies transporting passengers a} rnterprovincial services: $b 100 b) rnterdepartmental services: $b 200 c) rnternational services: $b 500 8. Vehicles of public urban services 1968 1962 1957 ' 1956 to to to and '1977 1'967 1961 ' hefore Buses and Trucks $b.,300 $1:: 200 $b 150 $b 100 9. La Paz companies and agents for the transport of pas- sengers and cargo. Of their income, 2 percent to the Municipality. 10. On the transfer of vehicle:2.5 percent of the value of the vehicle based on the scale of depreciation specified in 4 above. 11. $b 207 every four months per public service vehicle, for the Social Security Boar~ of Drivers. Salaried drivers pay $b 35 per year. All taxes are paid to the MUnicipality with, with the exception of No.5 which is paid to the Revenue Office,and No.11 which is paid to the National Confederation of Bolivian Drivers. Transit orsposrrTON ' ' EXTRACT L.D.No.~9735 (February.~6 ,721 Establishes the General Law of Transit that regulates registration of vehicles and transport companies. L.D.No.~1149 (November 26:,73) Creates the Route Sheet as a compulsory document for transport. -564-  APPENDIX 16B ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND REGULATION OF WATER TRANSPORT  Appendix 16B ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND REGULATION OF WATER TRANSPORT CONTENTS S.D. 12683 Navigation Policy 566 S.D. 12684 Law of Navigation 567 S.D. 12685 Creation of the General Directorate 568 of the Merchant Marine Organization of River Carriers 569 -565-  ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND REGULATION OF WATER, TRANSPORT The reguations in force governing water transport are listed below: DrSPUSITION . EXTRACT' S .. D. 8430 (July 24,68) ~eserves all freight by lake and river, and 30 percent of all ocean going freight for Bolivian enterprises Declares companies operated by the Navy to be free of taxes .. S .. D.. 11694(August 13,74) Increases to 50 percent, the propor- tion of freight reserved for Bolivian oceangoing enterprises. S.D. 12683(July 18,75) Specifies a policy for river, lake and ocean navigation. S .. D. 12685(July 18,75) Creation of the General Directorate of Merchant Marine .. S.D. 16657(June 28,79) Transfers the authority and jurisdiction of the Department of Ocean, River and Lake Interests to the Directorate of the Merchant Marine. The more important parts of these regulations are discussed below. S.D .. 12683 Navigation Policy Art.. 4 - The Bolivian State will create the National Merchant Marine. Art.. 6 - The commercial navigatbn companies and the Bolivian Navy will coordinate their plans and programs for navigation with the General Directorate of the Merchant Marine. Art. 10 - The Bolivian Navy will be in charge of the control of the navigation through the General Directorate of Port Captaincies. . -566-  • • 'til • Art. 14 - The General Directorate of the Merchant Marine is the authority in charge of the regulation of the • commercial activity retaled to nav~gation. Art. 17 - The General Directorate of the Merchant Marine will .. determine the number and type of boats in' service. Art. 34 - The activities of the Bolivian Navy in relation to commercial navigation will be coordinated with the General Directorate of the Merchant Marine. Art. 37 - The Bolivian Navy will render non-profit transport .. services to isolated r~gions. • Art. 39 - The Ministry of Transport will plan the construction ,. of ports .. • Art.. 40 - The Bolivian Navy through the Hydrographic Service ,. of the Navy has the specific mission of installing beacons, buoys, acoustic, optical and electronic .. navigation aids. Art. 41 - The shipyards dedicated to the naval industry will II be under the control of, and licensed by, the General Directorate of Port Captaincies .. Art. 42 - The routes, frequencies, itineraries and tariffs of the regular services of the Bolivian Navy must be approved by the General Directorate of the Merchant Marine. S.D. 12684 Law of Navigation Art. 5 - The State will be responsible for the payment of • salaries and indemnifications of boat crews. Art. 10 - Establishes the powers of the General Directorate of tne Merchant Marine in appointing Bolivian ship crews. Art. 15 - The National Boat Registry will be under the Bolivian Navy (General Directorate of Port Captaincies!. Art. 26 ~ All building of boats will be authorized by the Bolivian Navy. • • -567-  Art. 34 - Ship-building companies must register with the Bolivian Navy. Art.41 - Inspections of boats will be carried out by the Bolivian Navy Art.53 - The regulation of navigation, maneuvering, lighting and signalling is under the control of the Bolivian Navy. . Art.64 - The entry to, berthing in and departure from ports, will be regulated by the Bolivian Navy. Art.74 - Crews must be authorized by the Bolivian Navy. Art.91 - The personnel of the Merchant Marine can be dis- qualified by the Bolivian Navy. Art.104- The Bolivian Navy will determine the composition of the crews and the roles of ships. Art.109- The General Directorate of Port Captaincies is the authority in charge of appointments. S.D .. 12685 Creation of the General Directorate of Merchant Marine Art. 1 - The main objectives are to supervise and coordinate all the activities of the National Merchant Marine and related indUstries. Art. 4 - Its functions are: a) To plan the services of the naval and state companies. b) Approve tariffs and fares. e) Keep statistics on passenger and freight move- ments, based on data provided by the· Bolivian Navy. Art. 7 - The General Director of the Merchant Marine must be an official of the Bolivian Navy. S.D. 16657 transfers the activities of the Department of the Ocean, River and Lake of the Bolivian Navy, to the General Directo- rate of the Merchant Marine. -568-  . • In the foreword of the above mentioned decree, it establishes that the General Directorate of the Merchant Marine is the authority empowered to regulate the 'civil and commercial activities within the . country, with regard to marine affairs. The functions of the Department of Maritime Interests, according . to the S.D. 8430, are summarized below: Authorize the temporary pilotage of foreign vessels. Supervise all transfer of boats or bonds and enforce the regulation that not less than 51 percent of owners must be Bolivian. Register the crew of each merchant vessel. Issue navigation and safety certificates. Establish standards for the inscription in the commercial registry. Determine the conditions for the use of foreign vessels by national companies. Supervise agreements between naval companies and national importers and exporters, in order to control the enforce- ment of the law referring to the reservation of cargo for Bolivian companies. ' Organiz'a'ti'ons'Of River Carriers .. The river transport carriers that operate on the Ichilo- Mamor~ River system are grouped in two associations: "Asociaci6n de Empresarios Fluviales" with 65 associates owning 98 boats with an average capacity of 150 tons, and the "Asociaci6n de Transpor- tistas del Beni", with approximately 30 associates. The rest of • the carriers (which comprise the majority), operate independently with smaller boats. The objectives of these associations are to rationalize the • allocation of cargo among associated companies, defend their interests before the government, and to regulate tariffs, rates and taxes. . It is not necessary to belong to one of the before-mentioned associations in order to obtain an operation permit. The Bolivian Navy has four tankers with a capacity of 250,000 '. liters, for the transport of fuel for YPFB (National Hydrocarbons Company} • For the building and repair of boats, there are several private shipyards whose operations are regulated by the Navy_ The Navy also has two shipyards of .its own, the largest located at Puerto . Villarroel and the otli.erat Loma SUarez (near Trinidadl_ -569- ... . '.  APPENDIX 17A PROJECTION OF ENFE'S FREIGHT OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES  Appendix 17A PROJECTIONS OF ENFE's FREIGHT OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES TABLES Number 17A-l 1989 Railroad Costs and Revenues with 572 High Tariffs 17A-2 1989 Railroad Costs and Revenues with 573 Medium Tariffs 17A-3 1989 Railroad Costs and Revenues with 574 Low Tariffs -570-  PROJECTIONS OF ENFE'S FREIGHT OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES In Chapter 17 of the Report, summaries were presented of the operating costs and revenues for ENFE freight traffic for 1989. The three tables following give more details of these calculations. The results were derived from the 1989 computer forecasts of rail flows made for the committed transport network, i.e. excluding the proposed rail interconnection. Two computer pro- jections were made; one with a continuation of current tariffs ('High' in the following tables), the other with a low tariff policy in which tariffs on all internal traffic were approximate- ly equal to 1989 variable costs, but below this level for some lightly used lines. From these results, estimates were derived of the effects of a medium tariff policy which is considered appropriate to use as a starting point for developing a new ratl tariff policy. Results are presented in Tables 17A-l to 17A-3 for each line. -571-  .. Table 17A-l '. 1989 RAILROAD COSTS AND REVENUES WITH HIGH TARIFFS SECTION Internal FLOW External Total TARIFF INCOME (1) Fixed COST(l) Variable Total PROFIT(l} .. (thousand of tons)----- (pesos) • La Paz-Viacha Viacha-Oruro 60 75 315 341 375 416 46 276 17.2 114.8 4.4 26.9 5.4 37.4 9.8 64.3 7.4 50.5 . Oruro-Rio Mulato R.Mulato-Uyuni Uyuni-Villazon 96 63 23 337 434 113 433 497 136 182 69 319 78.8 34.3- 43.4 46.5 22.0 31.5 33.2 12.9 15.3 79.7 34.9 46.8 - 0.9 - 0.6 - 3.4 '. Viacha-Charana 1 147 148 329 48.7 19.7 15.2 34.9 l3.8 Uyuni-Avaroa 10 359 369 110 40.6 29.8 15.9 45.7 - 5.1 Oruro-Cochabamba 128 202 330 279 92.1 32.0 24.2 56.2 35.9 Cochabamba-Aiquile 11 o 11 295 3.2 12.8 2.7 15.5 - 12.3 R.Mulato-Potos1 43 109 152 239 36.3 13.3 9.7 23.0 13.3 '!!III Potosi-Sucre 25 27 52 239 12.4 13.B 13.4 27.2 - 14.8 Andean System 521.8 438.0 83.8 Viacha-Guaqui 4 101 105 98 10.3 22.4 26.8 49.2 - 38.9 '. Total Andean 532.1 487.2 44.9 Santa Cruz-Corumba 273 454 727 493 358.4 78.7 84.9 163.6 194.8 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 60 210 270 457 123.4 63.9 33.0 96.9 26.5 • Santa Cruz-Rio Grande Total Eastern System 30 86 116 247 2B.7 ~10· 5 14.6 4.0 18.6 279'1 10.1 231'4 • Total Linehaul 1,042·6 766'3 • Terminal - Andean - Eastern 51.6 63.4 • TOTAL ENFE 766.3 391. 3 (1) Million of 1977 pesos. • SOURCE: Bolivia National Transport Study. • -572- • • • • •  Table 17A-2 1989 RAILROAD COSTS AND REVENUES WITH MEDIUM TARIFFS (High Tariff for External Traffic) fiST Internal External Total Internal External nnlME(l) Fixed Variable 'lbtal (thousarrl of tons-)-- (pesos) La Paz-Viacha 256 315 571 26 46 21. 2 4.4 8.2 12.6 8.6 Viacha-oruro 309 341 650 135 276 135.8 26.9 58.4 85.3 50.5 Oruro-Rio Mulato 273 337 610 115 182 92.7 46.5 46.8 93.3 -0.6 Rio Mula to-l1yuni 207 434 641 39 69 38.0 22.0 16.6 38.6 -0.6 Uyuni-Villaz6n 100 113 213 169 319 52.9 31,5 24.0 55.5 -2.6 Viacha-charafia 1 147 148 154 329 48.6 19.7 15.2 34.9 13.7 Uyuni. -Avaroa 359 379 65 110 40.8 29.8 16.3 46.1 -5.3 20 Qruro-(bchal::la!rba 315 202 517 110 279 91.1 32.0 37.9 69.9 21. 2 Cochabant>a-Aiquile 12 o 12 295 295 3.5 12.8 2.9 15.7 -12.2 Rio Mulato-Potosi 202 109 311 96 239 45.4 13.3 19.8 33.1 12.3 Potosi-Sucre 100 27 127 239 239 30.4 .13.R 32.7 46.5 ·-16.1 Andean System 600.4 531. 5 68.9 Viacha-Guaqui 6 101 107 98 98 10.5 22.4 27.3 49.7 -39.2 Total Andean 610.9 581.2 29.7 Santa Cruz-(bl:\.lll1b.1 415 454 869 176 493 296.8 78.7 101. 5 180.2 116.6 Santa Cruz-Yacuiba 189 210 399 183 457 130.6 63.9 48.7 112.6 18.0 Santa Cruz-Rio Graroe 102 86 188 82 247 29.6 14".6 6.5 21.1 8.5 Total Eastern System 457.0 313.9 143.1 Total Linehaul 895.1 172.8 1,067.9 Terminal-Andean 50.3 -Eastern 62.7 Total ENFE l,lBO.7 895.1 285.8 (1) Millions of 1977 pesos. saocE: B:llivia National TranSlXlrt Study. -573-  .. • Table 171'.-3 ... 1989 RAILROAD COSTS AND REVENUES WITH LOW TARIFFS (High Tariff for External Traffic) FLOW TARIFF COST Internal External Thtal Internal External INCCt1E(1) Fixed Variable Thtal PROFIT (1) SECTION ('Ihousand of tons) (pesos) La Paz-Viacha 319 315 634 16 46 19.6 4.4 9.1 13 .5 6.1 Viacha-<lruro 358 341 699 87 276 125.3 26.9 62.8 89.7 35.6 Oruro-Rio Mulato 352 337 689 80 182 89.5 46.5 52.8 99.3 - 9.8 Rio Mulato-Uyuni 258 434 692 34 69 38.7 22.0 18.0 40.0 - 1.3 Uyuni -Vlllaz6n 110 113 223 110 319 48.1 31.5 25.1 56.6 - 8.5 Viacha -Charaiia 5 147 152 85 329 48.8 19.7 15.6 35.3 13.5 Uyuni-Avaroa 30 359 389 57 110 41.2 29.8 16.8 46.6 - 5.4 Oruro -CCCl:laba!rba 459 202 661 71 279 88.9 32.0 48.5 80.5 8.4 Cbchabamba-hlqulle Rio Mula to-Patos! Patos!-Sucre 22 280 189 0 109 27 22 389 216 130 64 128 295 239 239 2.9 44.0 30.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 5.4 24.8 55.7 18.2 38.1 69.5 -15.3 5.9 - 38.9 .. ,. Ar£Iean Systan Viacha-Guaqui Thta1 Ar£Iean 10 101 111 82 98 577 .6 10.7 588.3 22.4 28.3 587.3 50.7 638.0 - 9.7 - 40.0 - 49.7 .. Santa Santa Santa Thta1 Cruz-corurnb:'l Cruz-Yacuiba Cruz-Rio Grarm Eastern System 560 198 107 454 210 86 1,014 408 193 166 166 82 493 457 247 316.S 128.9 30.0 47507 7S.7 63.9 14.u l1S.4 40.9 6.7 197.1 113. 8 332.2 119.7 -15. 1 143.5 .. Thta1 Linehaul 1064.0 970·2 93 •.8 Thrrninal-Andean 48.9 • .. -Eastern 61.9 Thta1 rnFE 1174.8 970.2 204.6 (1) Million of 1977 pesos. ,a SOUPCE: Bolivia National Transport Study. .. • . • • -574- • • . • • • •  APPENDIX 18A COMMITTED HIGHWAY INVESTMENTS  Appendix 18A COMMITTED HIGHWAY INVESTMENTS CONTENTS Current Road Maintenace 576 Pilot Maintenance Study 578 Feeder Roads 580 Current Construction 580 SNC General 581 TABLES Number 18A-l Analysis of SNC Expenditures 577 18A-2 Summary of SNC Maintenance Operations 579 in 1979 -575-  COMMITTED HIGHWAY INVESTMENTS This Appendix sets out the assumptions on committed costs in the Highway Investment Program. Current Road Maintenance Table 18A-1 shows a breakdown of SNC costs for the past four years. The 1979 figures for maintenance can be summarized as follows~ 1979 PESOS - -1977 PE503 (1) ----~~~~~--- Direct Costs 226.27 ~80 Administrative Costs __ ~06-.6.2 . _8~ TOTAL $b 332.89 million $b 264 million (1) 1977 pesos = 1979 pesos ~ 1.26. where direct costs include labor, machinery and materials. It is also possible to compare these costs with theoretical costs obtained by multiplying Study costs (financial} by the 1979 SNCreported quantities shown in Table 18A-2. Grading - earth 8,163 kIn x 680 ;:: $b 5 .. 55 million . gravel 80,676 kIn x 850 ;:: 68.57 Gravell.in9 _- (1) 626,698 ~ x 80 ;:: 50.~3 pa~ 38,183 ~ x 101 = 3.86 Sea.l:lrl9 22,423 mf x 52 = - 1 .. 16 Overlaying. (2) 31,760 ~ x 0.05 x 2,500tmJ;:: 3.97 Rehabilitation (3) 280,980 mf x 6,000 x 1,120,OOO;Tmt ;:: .52.45 _ $0 185.69 million. (1) rnclu::1es gravel resurfacing and spot gravelling. (2) Ass\llleS '5 an asphalt. - - . (3) AsS\lIleS 6 m wide reoonstruction. Therefore, direct costs compare well ($b 180 million versus $b 186 million). Basic maintenance covers all existing operations" excluding overlaying and rehabilitation wh~ch are considered as 'special projects, Total costs for oasic;maintenance in .19.79 were therefore $h 129 million (1977 pesos) .. Future basic'J1lAintenance costs (without improvementl are as follows: -576-  Table 18A-l ANALYSIS OF SNC EXPENDITURES (Millions of current $b) MAINTENANCE WORK STUDIES CONSTRUCTION WORK AND IMPROVEMENTS Direct Administrative Direct Administrative Direct Administrative YEAR Work Costs Total Work Costs Total Work Costs Total 1976 113.13 55.42 168.55 16.54 0.20 16.74 428.76 48.22 476.98 1977 149.57 81.44 231. 01 9.32 0.01 9.33 870.07 53.92 923.99 1978 170.75 98.68 269.43 22.77 0.21 22.98 1,188.25 51. 78 1,240.03 I VI 1979 226.27 106.62 332.89 27.21 0.20 27.41 1,118.97 75.45 1,194.42 -.J -.J I PERCENTAGES 1976 67.12 32.88 100.00 98.80 1.20 100.00 89.89 10.11 100.00 1977 64.75 35.25 100.00 99.89 0.11 100.00 94.16 5.84 100.00 1978 63.37 36.63 100.00 99.09 0.91 100.00 95.82 4.18 100.00 1979 67.97 32.03 100.00 99.27 0.73 100.00 93.68 6.32 100.00 Average Value 65.80 34.20 100.00 99.26 0.74 100.00 93.39 6.61 100.00 NOTE: Administrative costs for studies, improvements and construction also cover supervision of work performed by contract. SOURCE: SNC and Study estimates a. a. .• ~. .• .• •• •• •• •• .. .• .• •• ~ 4 •• • 4 •• ~ ~  1981;"1983 $b 387 million 1984 ... 1986 $b 387 million 1987-1990 $b 516 million. To this sum must be added the administrative and supervision costs which are essential to a maintenance operation. Also, i t is possible, on the basis of the quantities reported in Table 18A-2, to divide the costs of basic maintenance between the three districts of the Pilot Maintenance study, and the rest of the country. The final results are as follows: ADMINISTRATION· . TOTAL BASIC COSTS PERIOD BASTC COSTS AND SUPERVISION 3 Distrlcts(1) Other 1981-1983 $b 387 million $b 255 million 257 385 1984-1986 387 million 255 million 257 385 1987-1990 516 million 340 million 342 514 (1) La paz, Cochabarnba and Santa Cruz. Pilot Maintenance Stud:i This Study, which started in March 1981, covers the three districts of La Paz, Cochabarnba and Santa Cruz. The project costs can be broken down as follows: TOTAL ALREADY COSTS HENCE COSTS ITEM COST_ SPENT (11 FOR 1984 (2). ·1981-1983 (1) (millions of 1980 pesosl Current Maintenance .·5.45, e 34.5 105.0 ( 75.0} 405.5 (290) Deferred Maintenance 252.4 12.9 39.2 ( 28.01 200.3 (143) Equipment, etc. 519.3 323.0 0 196.3 (140) Workshops 20.0 3.6 0 ·16.4 ( 12) Technical Assistance 68.3 o 10.3 ( 7.4} 58.0 ( 41) Studies 45.0 o 5.• 0 ( 3.6} 40.0 ( 29} 1,450.0 374.0 159.5 (114.0) 916.5 (655) (1) To end of 1980 (2) Figures in brackets are in 1977 pesos (1980 pesos ~ 1.4). Hence, the costs during the investment program period can be summarized as follows: . ··198:1-83 1984 CInillions of 1977 pesos} Basic project 222 ].1 Peferred Maintenance 1.43 28 Current Maintenance 290 75 -578-  ,. ~ ,. Table' 18A-2 • SUMMARY O,F SNC MAINTENANCE· OPERATIONS IN 1979 DISTRICT ITEM ....... SURFACE TYPE ... UNIT • ~avea Graver Earth' TOTAL .. " La Paz Gradi~g Regravelling (kin) em~l 16,645 108,477 '3~S12 20,157 108,477 " .. Patching . (m ) 5,047 • S,047 Santa Cruz Grading (kin) 4,200 298 4,498 ,. (m3 ) Regravelling . Patching , (m2) 15,199 28,924 28,924 15,199 • Rehabilitation (m 2 } 280,980 280,980 Beni Grading (kin) 3,927 279 4,206 '" .II Tupiza Regravelling Grading (m 3 ) (kin) (m 3 ) 9,500 4,715 441 9,500 5,156 .. Regravelling (kin) 30,075 30,075 •• Sucre Grading 5,961 795 6,756 Regravelling . em 3 ) 35,617 35,617 ,. • Tarija Grading 415 .. (km) 8,934 9,349 Regravelling Cm 3 } 130,050 130,050 Cochabamba Grading (km) em 3 6,986 342 7,328 . Regravelling Patching Sealing Overlaying 2 Cm } (m2 1 } (m 2 ) 16,436 21,639 31,760 . 141,398 141,398 '16 1 436 21,639 31,760 ... Oruro Grading Regravelling (~l (m ) (m 2 ) 20,678 1,469 92,006 22,147 92,006 .. Patching Sealing (m2 ) 1,501 784 1,501 784 • Potos! Grading Regravelling (kin) (m 3 ) 7,868 48,4.11 558 8,426 48,41.1 .'" •• Pando Grading Regravelling (kW) (m 1 762 2,240 54 ' 816 2,240 ,. ~ee Grading (kml 27,831 4,132 31,963 •• districts Regravelling em3 ) 278,799 278,799 ,. (La Paz, Patching (m2) 36,682 36,682 Cochabamba Sealing (m2) 21,639 21,639 ,. and Santa Overlaying Cruz) Rehabilitation (m2) 31,760 (ro2) 280,980 31,760 280,980 . TOTAL Grading (kin) 80,676 8,163 88,839 • Regravelli~g Patching Sealing em3 ) (Jn2) (m 2 l 38~183 22,423 626,698 626,698 38,183 22,423 .. Overlaying Rehabilitation (m 2 l (m 2 l 31,760 280,980 31,760 280,980 • ttl • SOURCE: SNC Maintenance Department .. ... -579- . •  Current maintenance should cover the basic maintenance of the previous section, plus additional costs of maintenance due to improved maintenance standards recommended by the World Bank. In fact, the allowed sum barely covers the basic maintenance costs of $b 257 million. Almost certainly, therefore, sums will have to be allocated to the three districts additional to those currently allowed in the pilot maintenance project, in order to raise the levels of current maintenance to the required levels. For budget presentation purposes, it is assumed that the $b 290 million (1981-1983) and the $b 75 million (1984..,.198G1 are included in the sums allowed in the Investment Program for basic maintenance and additional maintenance. . Feeder Roads Only Phase I of the USAID program is included at the following costs: 1981--:1983 $b 217 million (~9801 $b 155 million (19771. Current Construction The following projects are included; 1984-1986 PROJECT · 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 3 COST· (1) COST (1 ) ------------------------------------ (millions of pesos) Quillacollo-Confital (2) 230 (164) La Paz-Cotapata and bridges (2) 311 (222) R!o Yucumo-Pto. Salinas~Ramales (2) 383 (2741 126 (90) San Juli!n-San Javier-Concepci6n(2) 155 (1111 58 (41) San Ram6n-Trinidad (2) 165 (1~a) Bella Vista-R!o Quiquibey (2} 275 (~9G) R!o Quiquibey-R!o Yucumo (3) 258 (184) 224 (160) Potos!-Tarapaya (2) 178 (127) Cobija-Porvenir-Chiv~ (3} 54 ( 39] Pto. Siles-San Joaqu!n-San Ram6n(3) 7 (5) Sorata-Mapiri-Apolo 20 .( ~41 2,036 408 (291) (1) Figures in brackets are in ~977 pesos, others in 1980 pesos. (2) Based on SNC estimates to completion. (3) Study estimates based on the following sum~ percent to complete x project cost x 0.8 (to allow for heavier costs in earlier years}. Percent to complete is taken from rrol'ectos Vial~n' Ejecuci6n (Current H~ghway Projects), planning Department, Nattona! Road Service (Servicio Na- cional de Caminos - SNC1, La Paz, December 31, 1980~ -580-  . iii .. • SNC General .. ,II This covers costs of. new buildings, new constructions in the districts and field offices, and'other investments not otherwise specified. .. • • • ',.. . '" .. ' ,iii ',. " '•. 'It • ,. • . '" .. ' • .. ,a • .. ,. .. -581- • • .. ..  TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS $b Bolivian Pesos- $US 1.00 = $b 25.00 (1981) $US 1.00 = $b 20.00 (1977) ADT Average Daily Traffic AADAA Customs Administration AASANA National Airport Administration ADEPTA Association of Private Air Transport Firms COMIBOL National Mining Company COMIXTA Bolivian-Argentinian Joint Commission CNT National Transport Center CEPAL Economic Commission for Latin America CODETAR· Tarije"l Department Development Corporation COFADENA National Development Corporation of the Armed Forces CORDEBENI Beni Department Development Corporation CORDECO Cochabamba Department Development Corporation CORDECH Chuquisaca Department Development Corporation CORDECRUZ Santa Cruz Department Development Corporation CORDEOR Oruro Department Development Corporation CORDEPANDO Pando Department Development Corporation CORDEPAZ La Paz Department Development Corporation CORDEPO Potosi Department Development Corporation DGCP General Directorate of Port Captaincies DGMM General Directorate of Merchant Marine DGTA General Directorate of Road Transport DGTTA General Directorate of Air Transport and Aerial Works DPC Directorate of Planning and Coordination ENFE National Railroad Company FNB Bolivian Navy GNP Gross National Product GEOBOL Bolivian Geological Service GDP Gross Domestic Product HDM Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model IBRD International Bank £or Reconstruction and Development (The World Bank) IBTA Bolivian Institute of Agricultural Technology IDB Interamerican Development Bank INE National Statistics Institute INALCO National Cooperatives Institute INTAL Institute of Latin American Integration IRR Internal Rate of Return LAB Lloyd Aereo Boliviano LAC Lineas A~reas Canedo LAI Linea A~rea Imperial LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas LINABOL Bolivian Shipping Line MTCCA Ministry of Transport, Communications and Civil Aeronautics NPV Net Present Value NTS National Transport Study SHN Hydrographic Service of the Navy SN Structural Number (Used in Road Pavement Design) SN Modified Structural Number SNC National Road Service SNT National Transit Service TAM Transportes Aereos Militares UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development YPFB National Hydrocarbons Company