Determinants of fertility in Sri Lanka

T h i s s e r i e s of u n r e f e r e e d d i s c u s s i o n papers i s i n t e n d e d t o p r o v i d e an i n i t i a l c i r c u l a t i o n of work prepared under t h e auspices of t h e P o p u l a t i o n and E m a n Eiesources Division. Commer;ts a r e t b e r e f o r e v e r y welccme. The p a p e r s should n o t b e c i t e d with- o u t c l e a r a n c e by t h e author. The views expressed a r e n o t neces- s a r i l y t h o s e of the World Bank Group. - P o p u l a t i o n and Hman Resources D i v i s i o n D i s c u s s i o n Paper No. 81-53 DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY I N SRI September 1 9 8 1 f - - ' a C Prepared by: b I! m Dr. N. Krishnan Xambood'iri, DEDPH Consultant Prepared f o r : ?-PO YO. 671-70 'R.e 'dorld Bank Va~hi~~io r , 20433 D.C. C.S.A.  ABSTRACT (To be Added)  TABLE OF CONTEXTS Page Number Preface ................................ V Determinants of Fertility Preference Function: A Preliminary Analysis. 1 ~eclaredIntention and Subsequent Behavior. .............. 4 A Simple Recursive Hodel of Fertility in the Foilow-up Period . . . . . 8 A Hodified, Extended Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Another Look at the Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Contraceptive Use Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Sumnary and Conclusions .................**....* 26 I I References. ............................... 28 List of Population and Human Resources Discussion Papers. ....... 45  LIST OF FIGURES Page Numbers' Figure a . A Path Diagram of Factors Affecting F e r t i l i t y i n the Interim ( i . e . , between 1975 and 1979) S r i Lanka. ......... Figure b. A Path nodel for F e r t i l i t y Dynamics i n S r i Lanka . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - iii -  LIST OF TABLES Page Number Table 1. Regression C o e f f i c i e n t s (Dependent Variable: F e r t i l i t y Preference) .......... 31 Table 2. M u l t i p l e R~ from D i f f e r e n t Re- g r e s s i o n s (Dependent Variable: F e r t i l i t y Preference). ............... 32 2 Table 3. M u l t i p l e R of D i f f e r e n t Regressions (Dependent Variable: F e r t i l i t y Preference Reinterviewed Sub-sample) ........ 33 Table 4 . D i s t r i b u t i o n of Women i n t h e Sample by Whether They Wanted Another Child Sometime and t h e Number of Live i n t h e Interim: Tvo-wave d a t a , 1975-79, S r i Lanka. ..................... 34 Table 5. Comparison of Inconsistency Measures from S r i Lanka w i t h Those F r m Taiwan and Korea .................. 35 I Table 6. C o r r e l a t e s of Inconsistency: Two Wave Data, S r i Ianka: 1975-79 ........... 36 Table 7. I n d i v i d u a l Inconsistency by Selected C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s According t o Whether t h e q i f e Wanted Nore Children and Duration of Marriage: S r i Lanka, 1975-79. ..... 38 Table 8. Standardized Regression C o e f f i c i e n t s : , I Equattons of a Recursive Model: A C o q a r a t i v e Study Involving Taiwan, Korea, and S r i Lanka ................ 39 Table 9. A ~ & u r s i v oGodel f o r F e r t i l i t y Dynamics: S r i Ladca: Standardized Regression C o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h e Various Regression Equatio~tsand R 2 . B f o r each Regression. ......... Table 10. P r o p o r t i o n of Variance Accounted f o r by Regressors When Entered i n the Sequence Sham ............ Table 11. Percent of "fecund" Currently Married but Not Pregcact Women hi0 a r e Current Users of Contraception, Time 1 (1975) and Time 2 (1979): S r i Lanka. .... Table of Contents, cnntinued Page Nunber Table 12a. Regression C o e f f i c i e n t s i n the Zegression of Age a t F i r s t Marriage on Selected Regressors: S r i Lanka, .' Reinterviewed Subsirmple--Women of Age 25 Years o r Older and those of Age 35 Years o r Older. ............... 43 - 2 Table 12b. Incremental R ' s A t t r i b u t a b l e t o Re- g r e s s o r s When They a r e Entered i n The Sequence Shown and When They a r e Entered Last: Analysis of Factors Affecting Age a t Marriage: Ever-married Females: S r i Lanka. ................ 44 Table 13.  Preface This i s one of t h e r e p o r t s on t h e World Bank - Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s (Coiombo) r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t on t h e determinants of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka. Other r e p o r t s on t h e p r o j e c t a r e being r r e p a r e d by t h e Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s Colombo, and t h e World Bank s t a f f . The S r i Lanka s t u d y is p a r t of a l a r g e r World Bank research pro- j e c t e n t i t l e d "Determinants of F e r t i l i t y Decline i n S r i Lanka and South India" (World Bank Research p r o j e c t No. 671-70), co-sponsored by t h e World Bank, t h e United Nations Fund f o r Population A c t i v i t i e s (UNFPA) and t h e Government of I n d i a and S r i Lanka. The study i n S r i Lanka w a s c a r r i e d out by t h e Department of Census and Stat?s:ics, Government of S r i Lanka, Colombo under t h e d i r e c t i o n of W.A.A.S. P e i r i s , D r . N.K. Namboodiri worked as Bank c o n s u l t a n t s t o t h e p r o j e c t from i t ' s beginning. Data f o r t h e study w e r e c o l l e c t e d from about 4,400 households from among t h e 6,800 households covered i n t h e S r i Lanka World F e r t i l i t y Survey (1975). The f i e l d work was c a r r i e d o u t i n J u l y - September 1979. The s t u d y u s e d -t h e following schedules: I . I 1. Eousehold Schedule 2. I n d i v i d u a l Questionnaire f o r ever- married women 12-49 y e a r s Respondent 's backgroucd and maternity h i s t o r y Harriage - Contraceptive knowledge and use F e r t i l i t y regulation E . Work h i s t o r y Husband ' s backgroucd Children's employnent Family a s s e t s 3. I n d i v i d u a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e f o r n e v e r a a r r i e d females 25-34 y e a r s  4. Individual questionnaire for nevermarried males 28-34 years 5. Individual questionnaire for husbands 30-39 years old - This report is based on the information on a matched sample of 2,984 ever- married women who were interviewed both in the 1975 World Fertility Survey - and the 1979 World Bank Fertility Survey. K.C. Zachariah September 1981  DZTEXYIYXUTS - OF FERTILITY I S S R I L4hY.4 --- I t a p p e a l s t o common s e n s e t o s t a r t a s t u d y of f e r t i l i t y d e t e m i n a n t s w i t h e o t i o n t h a t s o n e c o u p l e s a r e y r o n e t o run tlreir l i v e s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h ~ h n d e t a i l e d , p r e - s p e c i f i e d p l a n s , w h i l e some a r e l i k e l y t o b e a t t h e o t h e r e x t r e m e , , leaving v i r t u a l l y everything t o f a c t o r s outside t h e i r control. The d i s t r i b u t i o n I I of c o u p l e s may b e skewed :o o n e o f t h e s e cxrrcmes i n some p o p u l a t i o n s , w h i l e i t e x t r e m e i n some o t h e r s . n a y b e skewed t o t h e o t b ~ r Ijhen two-wave d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e , a s we have For S r i Lan'ka, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o shed some l i g h t on t h e J e g r e e t o which p e o p l e ' s r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r confor=ls t o o r d e v i a t e s from t h e i r e a r l i e r plans. I n t h i s r e p o r t w e f o c u s on q u e s t i o n s s u c h a s t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. Khat f a c t o r s d e t e r m i n e c a u p l e s ' f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r between t v o tine points? I n p a r t i c u i a r , do e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n s p r e d i c t subsequent f e r t i i i t v ? 2. '.Jhat a r e t h e c o v a r i a t e s o f i r = o n s i s t e x c y between e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n 3 and s u b s e q u e n t b e h a v i o r ? 3. How a r e i n t e n t r o n s and f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a t one t i m e p o i n t r e l a t e d t o t h o s e a t a n e a r l i e r time p o i n t ? i .. what a r e t n e c o v a r i a t e s ( d e t e r n i n a n t s ) of f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a c r e L a given time point? ,- A D e t e m i n a n t s of F e r t i l i t y P r e f e r e n c e F u n c t i o n : h Prelininary hnalvsls .r We examine t h e l a s t q u e s t i o n f i f s t . The r e a s o n f o r d o i n g s o i s c h a t t h i s q u e s t i o n h a s j e e n examined - using t h e 2 9 7 5 d a t a ( ? u l l = n , 19SO), aiid hence (WFS) I o n e of t h e a n a l y s e s i t s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e 5 y r e ~ e a t i ns ~ < :; get a feel for the q u z l i t ; ~o f t h e z a c e r i a l a n a l y z e d i n t h i s r e p o r r , i n ? a r t i c u l a r a b o u t t h e i a p l i c a t i o n s o f s e l e c ~ i v i c : ~i, f a n y , i n che r e - i n t e r v i e w e d subsample.  The a e a s u r e w e s h a l l u s e f o r f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e i s t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e following interview question: " I f you c o u l d c h o o s e t o h a v e E x a c t l y t h e n u n h e r o f c h i l d r e n Lo h a v e i n y o u r whole l i f s , how many would t h a t be?" Ye assume t h a t t h i s m e a s u r e i s s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e t z n d e n c y t o r a t i o n a l i z e , i.s., t h e tendency t o r e v i s e t h e response over time to x a t c h t h e actual fanily s i z e attained. Xence r h e a c t u a l f a m i l y s i z e i s a s t r o n g p r e d i c t o r of f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e . R e p r e s e n t i ~ gf a n i l y s i z e (= number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g ) a s a c l a s s v a r i a b l e , t a k i n g v a l u e s 0 , 1, ..., iO+, t h e r e g r e s s i o n of f s r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a t t i n e 1 ~ 1 9 7 5 ,WFS) on a c t u a l f a m i l y s i z e as of t i m e 1 (WFS) y i e l d s 7 an 3' of .553, f o r t h e r e - i n t e r v i e w e d subsample. The c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e f o r t h e WFS f u l l s a n p l e i s .560 ( P u l l u n , 1 9 8 0 ) . Gnen . t h r e e age- related c o n t r o l s 7 a r e i n t r o d u c e d ( a l o n g v i t h f a m i l y s i z e ) , 3' i n c r e a s e s t o .559, t h e e s t i m a t e d r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e i ~ t sand t h e a s s o c i a t e d s t a n d a r d e r r o r s of t h e s e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s be<ng a s shoim i n T a b l e 1. (See s e c t i o n 4 below f o r a d i s c u s s i o n c f chese age r e l a t e d c o n t r o l s and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s t o f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e c c e . See a l s o Pullurn, 1 9 8 0 . ) As t h e s e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n d i c a t e , g i v e n t k e number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g a s of t i n e 1 (:;FS), t h e higher t h e age a t f i r s t n a r r i a g e o r t h e ionger t h e i n t e r v a l s i n c e last l i v e b i r t h , t h e smaller t h e preferred family size, the s f f e c t of t h e i n t e r v a l between f i r s t s a r r i a g e and l a s t l i v e bir:h being . E C insignificant. S o t e c h a t i n a l l Ehese r e s p e c t s the 1;FS f u l l s a m p l e and che C -. r e i n c e r v i e v e d s u b s z m p l s l o o k s i n i ' l a r , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e r e i n c e r v i e v e d subsample i s n o r b i a s e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e c o v z r i a c e s of f e r t i l i t y ? r e f e r e n e e . . Sow p r o c e e d i n g with t h e a n a l y s i s and a a d i n g one a t a t i m e s d e k e d r e s r e s s o r s , 7 each a s a c l a 3 v a r i a j l e , y i e l d s t h e 3 - ' s si?o~*-i~ i n Table 2.  Each r e g r e s s s r a c c o u n t s f o r a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f r a c t i o n of t h e vzri~qceof f a i l ? - s i z a p r e f e r e n c e l e f t unaccounted f o r by t h e combination of c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z a 2nd t h e a g e - r e l a c e d c o n t r o l s . [The v a r i a b l . p a t t e r n of V2ife's work'usec 5~ ? u i l u n i n h i s a n a l y ~ i s of :he WFS f u l l sample i s somevhac i n t h e a c a l y s i s of t h e r e i n t e r v i e w e d s u b s a n p l e . Lirfferent f r o n t h e m e ~ s e d 3 u t It i s u n l i k e l y chat t h e r e s u l t s v o u l d be much d i f f e r e n t i f ?ul?um's c a t e g o r i e s had 5 e e n used i n s c a d of t h o s e a v a i l a b l e i n t h e !JFS s t a n d a r d t?.$e. t h e ones wc x s e d i n t h e a n a l y s t s of t h e r e - i n t s m i e w e d subsample.] Sow c u r n i a g ro t h e 1975 v e r s u s 1979 c o n p a r i s o n , based on t h e two-wave d a t a , t h e f i g u r e s i n T a b k 3 i n d i c a t e v e r y l i t t l e change i n t h e e f f e c t s of t h e v a r i o u s 3 f a c t o r s on the f a ~ 5 y s i z e preference. Subtracting the f o r equation 2 fron t h a t far s q u a c f o n 3, u e n o t i c e t h a t , Region of Residenca a c c o u n t s f o r 0.5 p e r c e n t of t h e v a r i a n c e a t cine 1 and 0.9 p e r c e n t a t t h e 2 ; t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e s f o r Type of P l a c e of Residence b e i n 3 0 . 2 and 0 . 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y , and s o on. T.20 points s c a d o u t i n the r e s u l t s presented s o f a r . The a n a Q s i s o f t h e 1975 d a t a f o r t h e r e - i n t e r v i e w e d s u b s a n p l e g i v e s r e s u l z s v e r y s i n i l a r t o t h o s e o b t a i n e d by t h e c o r r e s p o n a l n g a n a l y s i s of t h e 1975 f u l l s z n p l ~ ,i n a i c a c i n z ~ b . a tt h e r e - i a t e r v i e w e d subsanple i s not a biased su3sa=lple f r c a t h e s i a c of view of c b e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t y e e n t h e v a r i o u s f a c t o r s e x a n i a e d and fer:ilCzy ?reference. a 1. r eld i c r o r of f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e i s t h e c u r r e n t f a m i l y The a o s t ~ ~ e r f 2z s i z e (xxiiber of cniLEran l i v i n g ) . b u t o t h e r v a r i a b l e s a l s o e x h i b i ? statistically - . - rn .<2 s h a l l retun =a = h e e x a n i n a t i c n ' o f t h e d e t e r n i n a n r s of f e r t l l i r y p r e f e r e n c e i n t h e conce:<c of 2 io r ~ c . ~ r ~a el l a r e r on. vde The ? r i x a r g o b j e c t i v e o f c h e r ec r ~ ~ ~~l s esz t e dia T a j l e s 1 t o 3 has keen r o shed some l i g h t o n t h e i s s u e vherher :he r e - i - c e r r l s 7 ~ e c subsaxple 5s biased. -1lrhou~hone cannot 5 e c e r c z i n  a b o u t t h i s , it s e e a s s a f e t o assume t h a t f a r izhe a n a l y s i s of f e r t L l i t y pr2fe:eiicns and i t s c o r r e l a t e s w e may t r e a t o u r r e - i n t e r v i a - ~ e d se>sarnple a s a random s u ~ s a m p i e of t h e o r i g i n a l WFS (1975) f u l l sample. 2 . Declared I n t e n t i o n and S u b s e q u e n t a e h a v i o r We now t u r n o u r a t t e n t i o n t o a n a n a l y s i s of t h e i n c o n s i s ' e n r y between d e c i a r e d intenciun and s u b s e q z - ~ t f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r . \Then e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n is compared w i t h s u b s e q u e n t - - f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c l a s s i f y a r e s p o n d e n t a s c o n s i s t e n t or i n c o n s i s t e n t , d e p e n d i n g upan whether t h e b e h a v i o r conforms t o t h e e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n . Thus a r e s p o n d e n t i s i n c o n s i s t e n t i f s h e wanted no n o r e c h i l d r e n b u t \ad o n e o r more b i r t h s i n t h e follow- up p e r i o d . Examination of such i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s is u s e f u l i n f e r t i l i t y s t u d i e s i n s o f a r a s i t s h e d s l i g h t on :-he d e g r e e t o w h i c h p e o p l e p l a n t h e i r r e p r o d u c t i o n and i m p l e n e n t t h e p l a n s s u c c e s s f u l l y . The two-wave d a t a a v a i l a b l e f o r S r i Lanka p e r n i t a l i m i t e d e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e inconsistency j u s t referred to. The a v a i l a b l e d a t a do have a major l i s i t a t i o n , 3owever. The p e r i o d covered by t h e b e h a v i o r measure d o e s n o t c o i n c i d e w i c h t h e p e r i o d r e f e r e n c e d i n t h e q u e s t i o n on i n t e n t i o n s . The b e h a v i o r n e a s u r s i s For t h e f o u r - y e a r p e r i o d , 1975-1979, v h e r e a s t h e intention ( d e s i r e ) m e a s u r e i s w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e e n t i r e r e p r o d u c t i v e p e r i o d e x t e v J i n g from t h e f i r s t f n t e r - view d a t e onward, t h e wording o f t h e i n t e r v i e w q u e s c i o n b e i n g : "30 vou w a n t . c a n o t h e r c h i l d sometime?" * The i n c o m p l e t e n e s s of t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a , f r o a t h e 7 o i n t of view of t t e i n f o m a t i o n o n t h e i n c o n s i s t e n c y i n q u e s t i o n , c a n b e b e t t e r a p p r e c i a t e d by examining t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n shorm i n T a b l e 6. O f the ;,475 vomen f o r whon the r ~ l e v a n r r i n f o r m a t i o n is a v a i l a b l e , 1,665, o r o v e r t-.~o?t'nir.'s, s a i d they d i d z o t want a n y s o r e c h i l d r e n c h i l e 3 1 1 o r a t h i r d s a i d t h e y wanted a t i e a s t one rr?orz child. O f t h e rormer subgroup, 1,031 ( s e e Ca-1 X) !.ad no b i r t h s i n rrhe i n t e r i a , v h i l e 634 ( s e e C e l l 3) had one o r n o r e ; and of t h o s e who \:anted anotner c h i l d , 258 o r 30.6 p e r c e n t ( s e e C e l l D) had none, w h i l e 563 o r 69.4 p e r c e n t had one o r more. Obviout-.l:; I n c o u r s e of time, some women i n C e l l X might t r a n s r e r themselves t o C e l l B, a s they b e a r a $ ' i : i o n a l children. Similarly transfers fron Cell D t o Cell C a r e a l s o l i k e l y . Any t r a n s f e r f r o n C e l l A t o C e l l B vould i n c r e a s e I t h e number of i n c o n s i s c e n t s , from t h e l e v e l shown i n T a b l e &, and any t r a n s f e r from C e l l D t o C e i l C would d e c r e a s e i t . I t follows therefore t h a t the inconsistency ~ I r e v e a l e d by t h e f i g u r e s i n T a b l e 4 i s i n c o m p l e t e because of t h e t r u n c a t i o n ~icture I of t h e follow- up p e r i o d . I t s e e m s a f e t o assume, however, tha' the transfsrs from C e l l A t o C e l l B i n t h e f u t u r e v i l l be p r o p o r t i o n a t c l y a s w s l l a s i n a b s o l u t e I I numbers l ~ r g e rthan t h e t r a n s f e r s from C e l l D t o C e l l C, t h e reason being t h a t I C e l l D c o n r a i n s r e l a t i v e l y fewer women, and a l a r g e number of them have had l o n g I I open i x t e r v a l s by t h e secund i n t e r v i e w d a t e (122 had a n open i n t e r v a l of 4 y e a r s I I o r more, f o r example). Hence i t seem; r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d I t h e number of i n c o n s i s c e n t s would i n c r e a s e r a t h e r t h a n d e c r e a s e o v e r time from I t h e l e v e l shown i n T a b l e 4. T a b l e 5 shows some comparative f i g u r e s f o r S r i Lanka, Taiyan, and t h e Republic of Korea. The i n c o n s i s t e n c y i s c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r i n S r i Lanka t h a n i n t h e o t h e r two c o u n t r i e s . S r i Lankan women a r e l e s s a b l e t o p r e v e n t unwanted b i r t h s t h a n a r e t h e i r Taiwanese c o u n t e r p a r t s ; w h i l e somevhat more a b l e t o do s o compared t o Korean wonen ( s e e t h e p e r c e n t of i n c o n s i s t e n t women among t h o s e who wanted no 9 b xore). But i n comparison w i t h t h e Taiwanese and Korean samples, t h e S r i Lankan - shows a s t r o n g e r tendency t o set t a r g e t s which a r e n o t l i k e l y t o b e sanpl~ 3 t t a i n e d ( s e e p e r c 9 t o f i n c o n s i s t e n t women among t h o s e who vanted more). Tile occurrence=of "unwanted" b i r t h nay p a r t l y r e f l e c r l e s s e f f i c i e n t o r * l e s s frequent use O Fcontraceptioa. The f a i l u r e t o a t t a i n t a r g e t s of a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n p a r t l y r e f l e c c s t h e o n s e t of s u h z n c u n d i t y . Also part of the e x p l a n a t i o n f o r r h e observed i n c o n s i s t z n c y ; , ~ n gt h o s e who wanted s o r e a s v e l l a s t h a t a n o n j chose - i i o wanted no more s a y l i e p o s s i b l y i n t r u e changes of p l a n s d u r i n g  t-.e follnw- up p e r i o d . The a v a i l a S l e d a t a do n o t p e r n i t i d e n t i f y i a g who, if any, changed t h e i r p l a n s ( d e s i r e s . i n t e n t i o n s ) d u r i n g che interim. But d a t a a r s a v a i l a b l e o n t h e rcsp1+-i.;ent1s f e r t i l i t y i n t e n t i o n s ( d e s i r e s ) a s o f t h e second i n t e r v i e w . The between t h e 1975 ( t i m e 1) and 1979 ( t i n e 2j i n t e n t i o n s w i l l be examined l a t e r 02. For now w e c o n f i n e a t t e n t i o n t o '-e o b s e r v e d L ~ c o n s i s t e n c y t e t w c e n t h e e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n s ( d e s i r e s ) and t h e b e h a v i o r i n t h e i n t e r i m . 2 . 1 C o r r e l a t e s of I n c o n s i s t e n c v T a b l e 6 shows t h a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f i n c o n s i s t e n t s among women who wanted n o r e c h i l d r e n i n c r e a s e s r a p i d l y w i t h a a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n , w i t h v i f e ' s a g e , and w i t h number o f l i v e b i r t h s . A t the same time t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p e r c e n t a g e o f i n c o n s i s t e n t s among women who wanted no more c h i l d r e n d e c r e a s e s . Furthermore, t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f women who wanted more c h i l d r e n d e c r e a s e s w i t h a g e , w i t h m a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n . and w i t h number of l i v e b i r t h s . Sow i f PIw = p e r c . n t o f i n c o n s i s t e n t s among women who v a n t e d more, PI -= W p e r c e n t of i n c c n s i s t e n t s among women who wanted no more, and x = p e r c e n t of =onen vho wanted more, then 100PIa = xPIw + (100 - s) PI- W hhereg1- i s t h e p e r c e l ~ tof i n c o n s i s t e n t s artong a l l 7;ocien' ( t h o s e who wanted more 0 p l u s t h o s e rrho d i d n o r .*.ant a n y n o r e ) .At t n e e a r l y s t a g e s of . - the l i f e course .' c . a & , o r iower p a r i ~ y ) , x, t h e percentage- of women who want x o r c c h i l d r e n is l a r g e , * ( s h o r t e r m a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n , younger - . ? and = > s tof t h o s e who want more c h i l d r e n ? l a v e them, as a conseqence or' wnich P I W L is s o a l i . X l a r g e proportion of t h e v e r y s m a l l g r o u p vno want no n o r e c h i l d r e n a l s o havz xore, making for a l a r g e P I - . Sut i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o ~of ?I i t is w a' the saall ?It h a c g e t s l a r g e r w e i g h t ( x ) , and t h e r e s u l t is a smaller ? I a . ti  A t t h e l a t e r s t a g e s o f t h e l i f e c o u r s e , x , t h e p e r c e n t of women who want more becones s m a l l , w h i l e ? I w becomes l a r g e and PI- V small. Again t h e l a r g e r w e i g h t , 100 - x, goes t o t h e s m a l l q u a n t i t y , PI- i n t h e p r e s e n t c a s e , y i e l d i n g W a s m a l l e r PI,. A t t h e i n t e r n e d i a t e s t a g e s of t h e l i f e c o u r s e , however, x, ? I w , and PI- 'J a l l remain a o d e r a t e l y l a r g e y i e l d i n g moderately l a r g e P I a . A s f o r t h e o c h e r c o r r e l a t e s of i n c o n s i s t e n c y , w e n o t e from T a b l e 6 t h a t i n c o n s i s t e n c y d e c r e a s e s w i t h t h e open i n t e r v a l and d e c r e a s e s sornevhat w i t h t h e w i f e ' s education. The a s s o c i a t i o n o f i n c o n s i s t e n c y w i t h t h e p a t t e r n of t h e w i f e ' s work i s n o t c l e a r . Among t h e e t h n i c groups S i n h a l e s e a r 5 t h e l e a s t i n c o n s i s t e n t , and S r i Lanka Yoor t h e most. P a r a l l e l t o t h i s , i l u d h i s t s a r e t h e l e a s t and Nuslims t h e most i n c o n s i s t e n t , Hindus remaining i n t h e middle, and C h r i s t i a n s c l o s e l y resembling . Sinhalese. Residence a l s o d i f f e r e n t i a t e s t h e i n c o n s i s t e n c y somewhat: urban r e s i d e n t s a s one would e x p e c t a r e l e s s i n c o n s i s t e n t t h a a r u r a l o r e s t a t e r e s i d e n t s ; and Zone 1 and 2 r e s i d e n t s a r e l e s s i n c o n s i s t e n t t h a n r e s i d e n t s of t h e o t h e r zones, p a r t i c u l a r l y of Zone 4. As T a b l e 7 shows t h e o v e r a l l p a t t e r n s of v a r i a t i o n o f i n c o n s i s t e n c y p e r s i s t when d u r a t i o n o f m a r r i a g e is c o n ~ r o l l e d . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e b e t t e r educzted * -. a r e more s u c c e s s f u l i n preventing unwanted b i r t h s . .bong t h o s e who want s o r e - b i r t h s , however, t h e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d a r e r e l a t i v e l y s o r e i n c o n s i s t e n t , i n d i c a t i n s i I t h a t they l e s s f r e q u e n t l y have rhe b i r t h s they xant. *? c . A s t h e f i g u r e s p r e s e n t e d above c l e a r l y r e v e a l unvanted b i r t h a = w e l l a s * f a i l u r e t o havt h i r t h s which a r e v a n t e d o c c u r v i t h sane frequency I n m a l l s c r a t a o f S r i Lankan p o p l ~ l a t i o n . in a l l s o c i o - e c o n o s i c s t r a t a , t h e i n c i d e n c e 05 unwanted b i r t h s predoziinates o v e r che p r e v a l e q c e of f a i l u r e t o nave v a n t e d b i r t h s . :de do no: have any d a t a on c h a t e s p l z n z t i o c s t h e p e o p l e t h e m s e l v e s have f o r t h e s e phenomena. ( T a r t of t h e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r unwanted b i r t h s l i e i n t h e i n e f f i c a c i o u s u s e o r nonuse of c o n t r a c e p t i o n , and p a r t or' t h e e x p l a n a t i o n For n o t h a v i n g t h e b i r t h s v h i c h a r e wanted l i e s p e r h a p s i n t h e p r e v a l e n c e of sub- t e c t i n d i t y . ) B u t , whatever be t h e e x p l a n a t i o n , t h e h i $ i n c i d e n c e or' i n c o n s i s t e n c y between e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n s a n d s u b s e q u e n t f e r t i l i t y n a k e s t h e former a poor - p r e d i c t o r of t h e l a t t e r . The n e x t s e c t i o n examines how poor a ~ r e d i c t o rof s u b s e q u e n t f e r t i l i t y is e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n . 3 . X S i n o l e R e c u r s i v e >!ode1 of F e r t i l i t v i n t h e Follow-Up P e r i o d Ve s t a r t w i t h a s i m p l e moor1 o f f e r t i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r i m (between 1 9 7 5 and 1979). T h i s model i s t h e same a s t h e o n e Froposed by H e m a l i n e t a l . (1979) f o r T a i v a n f o r t h e p e r i o d 1967 t o 1974. I n t h e model, f e r t i l i t y o v e r t h e p e r i o d 1975-1979 i s viewed a s d e t e r n i n e d by ( 1 ) d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n , e x p r e s s e d a t t h e f i r s t i n t e r v i e w , ( 2 ) c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s a s o f t h a t t i n e ( d e f i n e d a s a dichotomy: c u r r e n t u s e r o r n o t ) , and ( 3 ) t h e f o l l o w i n g s o c i a l and demographic background v a r i a b l e s : ( a ) nunber of c h i l d r e n e v e r b o r n b e f o r e t h e f i r s t i n t e r v i e w , ( b ) number of s o n s l i v i a g t h e n , ( c ) n a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n a s of t h e f i r s t i n t e r v i e r 4 ( e x c l u d i n g p e r i o d s o u t s i d e s a r r i e d s t a t e ) , and ( d l v i f e ' s e d u c a t i o n . I t is assumed t h a t c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s is i n f l u e n c e d by d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n and n o t v i c e v e r s a . Y h s , i f a wonan d e c i d e d a t a n z a r l i e r L d a t e t h a t s 6 e d i d n o t want any = o r e c h i l d r e n s h e z a y have t h e n proceeded t o i n p l e n e n t t h a t d e c i s i o n through n e a s u r e s such a s s t e r i l i z a t i o n . . The o t h e r c a u s a l s e q u e n c e s p o s t u l a t e d i n F i g u r e A a r e n o r e Jr l e s s s t r z i g h t - f o r w a r d : p a r i t y ( a s or' 1975) Is d e t e r m i n e d - b y a a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n and t h e w i f e ' s E e d u c a t i o n ; +-he n u n b e r or' s o n s 1 F v i a g is d e w m i n e d s o l e l v 5 v ~ a r i t v(19751: and t h e d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o c a l c h i l d r e n i s d e t e r m i n e d b y zarriage d u r a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , p a r i t y (1975), and t h e n u n b e r of l i v i n g s o n s (1975).  as i s .;ell 7known, i n che a b s e n c e o f r e c i p r o c a l c a u s a t i o n and under t h e assumption c h a t t h e r e s i d u a l s a r e uncorrelaced w i t h each o t h e r , o r with t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e s , t h e d i f f e r e z t e q u a t i o n s i n t h e s y s t e m s h o r n i 2 F i g u r e A c a n b e e s t i m a t e d o n e by one u r i n g o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s . The p a t h c o e f f i c i e n t s sho~ni n F i g u r e X are t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s t h u s o b t a i n e d . The a n a l y s i s shows t h a t m a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n h a s t h e s t r o n s e s t d i r e c t e f f e c t ( - - 6 2 ) o n f e r t i l i t y i n t h e f o l l o v - u p p e r i o d ; t h e e f f e c t s of p a r i t y and c o n t r a - c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s a s of 1975 ( . 2 3 and - . 2 5 r e ~ p e c t i v e l y )a r e c o n s i d e r a b l y s m l l e r t h a n t h a t o f m a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n , t h e e f f e c t o f e d u c a t i o n is modest (-.07), and s o i s t h a t o f d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n e s p r e s s e d i n 1975 ( . 0 5 ) , and t h e number o f l i v i n g s o n s shows no s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t a t a l l . T h e s e . r e s u l t s c l o s e l y c o r r e s p o n d t o t h o s e f o r Taiwan and t h e R e p u b l i c o f . Korea ( s e e T a b l e 8 ) , t h e rnajor e x c e p t i o n b e i n g t h a t i n Taivan and i n Korea t h e e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e t o h a v e a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n h a s a s t r o n g e r e f f e c t on i e r t i l i i y i2 t h e i n t e r i n t h a n is t h e c a s e i n S r i Lanka. The v i f e ' s e d u c a t i o n and h e r e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n a r e n o r e i m p o r t a n t a s d e t e r m i n a n t s 05 c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s chan a r e p a r i t y and t h e number of s o n s l i v i n g . I n Taivan. p a r i t y h a s a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t w h i l e c h e number of s o n s l i v i n g h a s a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t . I n S r i Lanka, b o t h t h e s e v a r i a b l e s have p o s i t i v e e f f e c i s : t h e p o r e d h i i d r e n a woman h a s , i r r e s p e c t i v e of c h e i r s e x composition, t h e g r e a t e r is t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t s h e is a contraceptive user. - Axtong t h e dete.*inants * - of expressed d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n , p a r i t y - and a a r r i a g e d u r a t i w are t h e s t r o n g e r o n e s ( w i t h p a t h c o e f f i c i e n t s - . 3 2 and -. 24 r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , T h e w i f e 1 s e d u c a t i o n and c h e number or' l i v i n g s o n s h a v i n g o n l y xiodest e f f e c t s (- .09 and - . 0 4 ) . In g e n e r a l a l l t h e p a t h c o e f f i c i e n t s have t h e es?eczed s i g n s : (1) The l o n g e r t h e m a r r i a g e d u r s t t o n o r t h e lower :he v i f e ' s e d u c a t i o n , r h e h i g h e r t k e  parity. ( 2 ) The h i g h e r t h e ? a r i r y , t h e l a r g e r t h e n ~ z b e ro f s o n s l i v i n g . ( 3 ) The l o n g e r t h e ' n a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n , t h e h i g h e r t h e p a r i t y and che l m e r t h e l i k e l i h o o d of d e s i r i n % a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n . ( 4 ) The h i g h e r t h e w i f e ' s s d u c a t i o n , rhe higher her p a r i t y , o r the lover her d e s i r e f o r additional children the C higher the likelihood that she is a contraceptive user. (5) F a r i t y and e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n b o t h h a v e a p o s i t i v e d i r e c t e f f e c t on - t h e l i k e l i h o o d of having a b i r t h i n t h e i n t e r i m , w h i l e a l l t h e o t h e r v z r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d have n e g a t i v e d i r e c t e f f e c t s . r(, A Y o d i f i e d , Extended Yodel 1Je now c o n s i d e r a a o d e l v h i c h is a n o d i f i c a t i o n and a n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e o n e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e A and T a b l e 8 . The m o d i f i c a t i o n i n v o l v e s ( 1 ) i g n o r i n g t h e number o f l i v i n g s o n s a s a r e l e v a n t f a c t o r , (2) r e p l a c i n g p a r i t y (1975) by t h e number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g (1975), and ( 3 ) t r e a t i n g t h e s u b s t i t u t e o f p a r i t y a s a n exogenous v a r i a b l e . The r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e A and T a b l e S j u s t i f y n o t r e g a r d i n g t h e number of s o n s l i v i n g as a r e l e v a n t f a c t o r i n S r i Lanka. The second a o d i f i c a t i o n , namely, r e p l a c i n g p a r i t y vi:h t h e number o f c n i l d r e n l i v i n q , is s u g g e s t e d 3v t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h a t a woman's f e r t i l i t y i n t e n t i o n s and s u b s e q u e n t b e h a v i o r a r e i n f l u e n c e d by t h e a c t u a l f a m i l y s i z e a t t a i n e d r a t h e r t h a n b y , t h e a m b e r C o f l i v e b i r t h s s h e h a s had. &nd t h e t h i r d m o d i f i c a ~ i o ni s i a t r o d u c e d s i m p l y - f o r a n a l y t i c c o n v e n i e n c e ( t o r e d u c e t h e number o f e q u a t i o n s t o b e e s t i m a t e d and .? discussed). - This l a s t mndification h s - n o ima& - ~2 the r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d helm, I I s i n c e v e s h a i l be using a r e c u r s i v e nodel. * - I n irhe z o d e l a b o u t t o b e d i s c u s s e d v e s h a l l i n t r o d u c e a number o f exogenous .:ariables noir c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e s i n p l e ~ o d e o l f F i g u r e A. .Use t h i s new n o d e 1 goes jeyond = h e f e r c i i i c ; . . i n :he i n t e r i n t o :he f e r i i l i t y ? r e f s r e n c 2 and i n t e n t i c n s and c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s 2 s c a t u s as of t k e end of r h e f o l l o y i - a p p e r i o d .  T h i s model p o s t u l a t e s t h e f o l l o w i n g c a u s a l sequence ( t h e v a r i a b l e s l i s t s d f i r s t beins antecedents t o those l i s t e d l a t e r ) . 1. F e r t i l i t y preference function ( t i n e 1) 2. Demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l - c h i l d r e n ( t i m e 1 ) 3. Contraceptive use s t a t u s (time 1) b. F e r t i l i t y behavior i n t h e i n t e r i i n 5. F e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n ( t i n e 2) 6. Demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n ( t i n e 2) 7. C o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s ( t i m e 2) As a measure o f t h e f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n , we u s e t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e following interview question: "If you c o u l d choose e x a c t l y t h e number of c h i l d r e n t o have i n your whole l i f e , how many would t h a t be?" The dernand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n is measured by t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e f o l l o w i n g interview question: "How many n o r e c h i l d r 2n do you want t o have?" C o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s i s measured by a dichotomous v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g whether t h e r e s p o n d e n t is a c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e r o r n o t ( s t e r i l i z e d women cnildren) . and wives of s t e r i l i z e d husbands bLFng r e g a r d e d a s u s e r s with no d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l / F e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r i n t h e follow-upeperiod is measured by t h e number of l i v e b i r t h s i n :he period. - A s f o r t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e s a f e b words a r e i n o r d e r r e s a r d i n s their.' r - linkages to the f e r t i l i t y preference function. - L * (1) It is poscul#ted t h a t a v e r y i x p o r t a n t d e t e r ~ i n a n tof a woman's I f f a m i l y - s i z e ? r e f e r e n c e is h e r c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z e (= t h e number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n ? ) . T h i s p o s t u l a t e i s based on t h e nocion t h a t women tend t o r e v i s e t h e i r familv s i z e p r e f e r e n c e upward :o n a t c h t h e a c t u a l f a m i l y s i z e a t z a i n e d ; i n o t h e r words,  :hey tend t o r a t i o n a l i z e . Xo d o u b t t h e r s a r e women whose r e p r o d u c t i o n b e h a v i o r is a c o n s e q u e n c e o f r a t h e r t h a n a n a n t e c e d e n t t o t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n . But i n c o u n t r i e s l i k e S r i L a n k a , r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n is p r o b a b l y s t r o n g 2 r t h a n i n p l a n e ~ t a c i o n . ( 2 ) A g e - r e l a t e d f a c t o r s a r e a l s o i n p o r t a n t d e t e r z i n a c a t s of f 2 r c i l i t y L preference. Three such f a c t o r s aay be d i s t i n g u i s h e d : ( a ) a g e a t m r r i a g e , (b) t h e i a t e r v a l b e t w e e n m a r r i a g e and t h e l a s t b i r t h , and ( c ) t h e o p e n i n t e r v a l o r t h e . iaterval since l a s t birth. I t is q u i t e p o s s i b l e t h a t t h o s e who m r r y i a t e a r e s e l f - s e l e c t e d f o r s m a l l - f a m i l y m i n d e a n e s s , f o r coirmitment t o e x t r a - f a m i l i a l involvemen:, f o r b i r t h c o n c r o l ?rone.,ess, and s o o n , t h e o p p o s i t e b e i n g t r u e of t h o s e who n a r r y a t younger ages. A l s o , i n p o p u l a t i o n s s u c h a s S r i Lan'ka, where p r z - m a r i t a l p r e g n a n c i e s a r e r a r e and l o s s o f e x p o s u r e ( t o t h e r i s k of becoming p r e g n a n t ) d u e t o n a r i t a l d i s s o l u t i o n i n s i g n i f i c a n t ( s e e Caldwell, e t . a l , 1980), a g e a t marriage mostly determines a -oman's t o t a l r e p r o d u c t i v e e x p o s u r e p e r i o d . Assuming t h a t e x p o s u r e t o p r e g n a n c y r i s k s t a r t s a t m a r r i a g e , t h e s e c o n d f a c t o r m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , namely, t h e i n t e r v a l between m a r r i a g e a n d l a s t b i r t h , r e p r e s e n t s t h e l e n g t h of c - z woman's reproduct?.ve p e r i o d consumed by t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s r e s u l t i n g i n t h e number o f c h i l d r e n a l r e a d y born. The t h i r d f a c t o r , t h e o p e n i n t e r v a l , r e p r e s e n t s t h e a g e of t h e y o u n g e s t c h i l d , a f a c t o r which i s o f c o n s i d e r a b l e s i g n i f i c a n c e t o wonen i n connection w i t h t h e i r planning of i n t e r - b i r t h i n t e r v a l s . I n :he a b s e a c e o f t c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e , t h e o p e n i n t e r v a l c a n a l s c b e t r e a t e d a s a measure,of subfecundity, a n d s u b f e c u n d i t y i s known t o w a r t c c u p l e ' s p l a n - i n p l m e n t a t i o n e f f o r c s . I t m y be n o t e d t h a t t h e s u n of r h e t h r e e f a c t o r s j u s t m e n t i o c e d i s e q u a l t o t h e v o n a n ' s c u r r e n t a g e and t h a t t h e sur;! of t h e l a s z t v o f a c t o r s is e q u a l t o ;he - d o n a n t s d u r a c l o n - - of m a r r i a g e . Those who h a v e b e e n r ~ a r r i e dl o n g o r age of o l d e r a g e b e l o n g t o o l d e r b i r c h c o h o r t s and a r e a l s o l i k e l y PO . b e a t advanced s t a g e s t h e l r l i f e course. Older of birth c o h o r z s aay d i f f e r froin y o u n g e r o n e s i n f a n i l y - s i z e o r i e n t a t i o n . Sinilarly, a u o m a n ' s s r o p e n s i t y t o c e a s e c h i l d 5 e a r i n g i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h s l l f s - c o u r s e srage she is i n . Thus i f s h e i s a g r z n a m o t h e r s h e xay n o t w i s h t o h a v e any x o r e 3 l r r h s i n d e f e r e n c e r o t h e x o r ? ~ r c s c r i 5 i n gg r a n d z c t h e r s from h a v i n g b a b i e s of t h e i r own.  ( 3 ) It i s l o g i c a l t o i n c l u d e anong t h e d e t e r n i n a n t s of f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e background v a r i a b l e s s u c h a s t y p e of p l a c e o f r e r i d e n c e , r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , and r e l i g i o n , and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s t a t u s i n d i c a t o r s s u c h a s t h e w i f e ' s education, t h e husband's occupation, housing conveniences such as t o i l e t f a c i l i t i e s , w a t e r s u p p l y , l i g h : source, etc., a n d om-iership o f modern a r t i c l e s s u c h as r a d i o , t r a n s i s t e r , e t c . (We t r e a t r e l i g i o n a s a dichotomy f o r t h e moment--Nuslim v s . o t h e r s - - a n d r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e . and t y p e o f p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e , also as d o c h o t o m i e s . It i s r e c o n n i z e d t h a t d i c h o t o m i e s do n o t ~ l w a y sc a p t u r e t h e f u l l f l a v o r o f p o l y t o m i e s ; b u t i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e b a s i c p i c t u r e v o n ' t b e d r a s t i c a l l y a l t e r e d by t h e u s e o f d i c h o t o n i e s . ( 4 ) It i s assumed t h a t t h e number o f c h i l d r e n t h e wonan c o n s i d e r s i d e a l f o r a g i r l from a f a n i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f is a l o g i c a l exogenous v a r i a b l e . T n i s v a r i a b l e may b e t h o u g h t of a s a r o u g h n e a s u r e of t h e s o c i a l norm c o n c e r n i n g fanily size. (Xote c h a t t h i s n e a s u r e is u n a f f e c t e d by f a c t o r s s u c h a s rationalization.) U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h i s n e a s u r e i s a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r t h e ecd o f t h e follow- up period. But we a r e t r e a t i n g i t a s e s o g e n o u s , a s s u m i n g t h a t i t i s a l a g g e d r e a d i n g a f t h e 1 9 7 5 norm. (5) L a s c l y t h e w i f e ' s work p a t t e r n a s d e t e m i n e d from t h e 1 9 7 5 s u r v e y i s a l o g i c a l exogenous v a r i a b l e . I n v o l v e m e n t i n n o n - c h i l d - c e n t e r e d a c t i v i t i e s is a p o s s i b l e d e t e r i n i n a n t t o f a woman's f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e . W i t h t h e s e p r e l i m i n a r y r e m a r k s w e now p r o c e e d t o examine t h e r e s u l t s which a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 9. The i n d i v i d u a l ? q u a t i o n s t e l l t h e f o l l o w i n q s t o r y . .a - f e r t i l i t v p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n a t time 1 (1975). * The nuinber o f c h i l d r e n - l i - r i s i s t h e most i m p o r t a n t d e t e r n i n a n t of t h i s v a r i a b l e . m The l a r g e r t h e . c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z e , t h e h i g h e r t h e p r e f e r r e d number of c h i l d r e n . This r e f l e c t s as s e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r n o s t probably t h e cendency t o r a t i o n a l i z e ( i . e . , ro z a t c h preference w i t h v h a t o n e a c t u a l l y h a s ) . The n e x t i n i m p o r t a n c e i s :he ideal  12b f a m i l y s i z e f o r a g i r l from a f z m i l y l i k e t h a t of t h e r a s p o n d e n t . There i s some d i f f i c u l t y i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s v a r i a b l e t o fertility p r e f e r e n c e , S e c a u s e t h e o b s e r v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e two v a r i a b l e s may b e due t o a common a n t e c e d e n t . T h i s might b e t h e c a s e i f , f o r e x a n p l e , i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e f o r s e l f ( f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r z n c e ) and i d e a l f o r a g i r l from a f a m i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f a r e i n d i c a t o r s of a common unmeasured v a r i a b l e such a s t h e s o c i a l norm c a n c e r n i n g f a m i l y s i z e . Thus one could v e r y w e l l s p e c i f y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e tvo v a r i a b l e s i n q u e s t i o n a s f o l l o w s - £ollovs / propensity t o rationalize ' f , Current size family \ :S o c i a l norn concerning fanily size J L J Ideal for self Ideal for a girl preference) 1 f i I which p r o p e n s i t y LO r a t i o n a l i z e and s o c i a l norm c o n c e r n i n z f a m i l y s i z e a r e b o t h untleasured v a r i a b l e s . !<e a r e p o s t u l a t i n g i n s t e a d t h e f o l l o w i n g s i n p l e n o d e l . I Ideal f o r ' self = Ideal for fertility -( a girl , ?reference ; x. -. . -' \>..- inis o v e r s i m p l i f i c a t i o n (and che p o s s i b i e s p e c i f i c a t i o n e r r o r r e s u l t i n g t h e r e f r o x ) - s h o u l d 5 e kept i n a i n d when i n t e r ? r e t i n g t h e r e s u l t s i n Tahie 9 . - Apart from t h e two ? a t h s '*ntioned above (one f r o s :he xunber of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g and one from t h e i d e a l !%nil:? s i z e f o r a g i r l from a faniiv l i k e :hat of * s e l f ) t h e f o l l o w i n g t h r e e s i g n i i ' i c a n t p a t h s can be s e e n i n Table 9: From t h e w i f e ' s e d u c a t i o n (-. 97) from t h e t y p e of ? l a c 2 of r e s i d e n c e (ur5an) (-. 05) and from r e l i g i o n (?!uslis) (-. 05) The r e g r e s s o r s t o g e t h e r account f o r 5 6 p e r c e p t of t h e v a r i a t i o n I n :he f e r t i l i t v p r e f e r e n c e a t time 1.  Demand f o r a d d i t i n n a l c h i l d r e n ( t h e 1 ) . The c u r r e n t f a d l y s i z e ( t h e nunber of l i v i n g c h i l d r e n ) i s the =st h p o r t a n t p r e d i c t o r of t h i s v a r i a b l e a l s o ( t b c ..ath c o e f f i c i e n t being -.77). I t i s followed by t h e c u r r e n t f e r - t i l i t y p..'nrence ( i d e a l f o r self), w i t h a path c o e f f i c i e n t .55. .All the ocher v a r i ? l e s a r e much l e s s h p o r t a n t , t h e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t paths b e i n g f-OP i n t e r v a l between m r r i a q e and l a s t l i . ~ eb i r c h (-. 2 2 ) r q i o n of residence (Zose 1 o r 2) (--08) r e l i g i o n (?iuslin) ( -05) and i d e a l fan5ly s i z e f o r a g i r l f r o s a f a a i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f (-0%) 2 Zie 3 13 .476, ~ 2 i i c h3 e a m 'Aat zlightl-1 a o r c than k a l f of t h e v a r i a n c e i a t h e Zexand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n is ucaccounted f o r . Contraceptive U s e S t a t u s as of Tine 1. The c u r r e n t number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g i s t h e most important p r e d i c a t o r of t h i s v a r i a b l e a l s o , t h e path cosL- ficient being .48. Sext i n importance i s t h e i n t e r v a l between f i r s t x a r r i a g e and t h e l a s t l i v e b i r t h , a s of t h e 1 (-,221. This is CoUowed by e c ~ denand for additional children (- .I6j open i n t e r v a l a s 3i cine I ( - 13) 'I f e r t i l i t j - preference (Tezal f o r s e l f 1 (--099 5uzber of modern a r t i c l c s omed ( -09)- w e I and region cf residence (Zoce 1 , 2) (-08)- - L r o ? o r t i o n of v a r i a n c e sx2lained is onip 72.6 percent. S ?~ Given :Sac the Se?ended v a r i a b i e i s a dichocozy :?is Ls x o c unusually s n a i l .  F e r t i l i t y i n t h e interim. The t v o ccmponents df x a r r i a g e d u r a t i o n 3 a v e t h e l a r g e s t ? a t h c c e f f i c i e n t s (--35 e a c h ) . The n e g a t i v e s i g n of t h e ? a t 5 co- e f f i c i s n t r e f l e c t s m a i n l y t h e e f f e c t of s u b f e c u n d i c y . Sext t o duration c f m a r r i a g e i n i m p o r t a n c e a r e c o n t r a c e ? t i v e u s e s c a t u s a s of t i n e 1 ( - - 1 2 ) ; f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a s of t i m e 1 ( . 1 4 ) ; t h s number of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g a s of t i s e 1 (-.XI); a g e a t n a r r i a g e (-.08): number of n o d e r n a r t i c l e s owned (-.05), and i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e f o r a g i r l f r o n a f a n i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f ( - 0 5 ) . The s i g n s O F a l l t h e s e pach c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e i n r h e e x p e c t e d d i r e c t i o n . The multiple x2 is .344, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t w o - t h i r d s o f t h e v a r i a n c e i n t h e 'tde?endtnc" v a r i a b l e is u n a c c o u n t e d f o r . Sote, t h a t the d m n d for children (intention) a t t i m e 1 e x h i b i t s no s i g n i f i c a n t p a t h t o f e r t i i i t y i n t h e i n t e r i s . F e r t i l i t y Pre,erence a t time 2. The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s shov s i s n i f i c a n c paths to t h i s variable: R i n b e r of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g a t t h e I ( -60) f e r t i l i t y preference a t t i m e 1 ( .23) f s r t i l i t y i n t h e interiza (.18) i d e a l family s i z e f o r a g i r l f r o 3 a family l r ~ e thac of s e l f (-14) demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n ac tise 1 ( .05) Q che v i f e ' a education (-.05) age a t marriage ( 04) The socio- economic c o n t e x t u a l v a r i a b l e s d o n o t s3ow s i g n i f i c a n c ~ a c h s . What s a t t e r s s o s t I s c u r r e n t famil? s i z e a c zizie 1. The l a g g e d v a l u e of E t h e f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e is a l s o i i u o r t a n t ; a n t s o i s f e r t i l i t y i n tile -' - esrx. m T h a t t h e p r e f e r e n c e a t t i a e 1 i s r o t t h e s o i e d e c e r a i n a n t of che p r e f e r e n c e a c t i m e 2 d o e s n o t come a s a s u r ~ r i s e . P e o p l e t ~ n dco r e v i s e t h e i r ? r e f e r 2 n c e s . s o s t jrobably, i n t h i s instance, o : r a t i o n a i i z e vha: :hey have actuall:: tx~ezitcced.  Demand f o r A d d i t i o n a l C h i l d r e n : Time 2. The s i g n i f i c a n t pach l e a d i n g to t h i s variable are denand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : t h e 1 (-51) number ~ f c h i l d r e n l i v i n g : the 1 (-.36) f e r t i l i t y preference: tine 2 ( .23) f e r t i l i t y i n the i n t e r h (. 2 6 ) i n t e r v a l b e t v e e n f i r s t m a r r i a g e and l a s t l i v e birth: tine 1 (-. 13) i d e a l family s i z e f o r a g i r l f r o n a family l i k e t h a t of s e l f ( .08) contraceptive use status: time 1 (-. 07) open i n t e r v a l : time 1 (-. 066) ,number of a o d e r n n r t i t l e s owned ( .06) The s o s t i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o: p h i s v a r i a b l e is i t s own l a g g e d v a l u e - F e r t i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r i m and f e r t i l i t y p r s i e r e n c e a t t h e 2 b o t h have s t r o n g e f f e c t s on t h e v a r i a b l e i n q u e s t i o n . Smber of l i v i n g childrsn a s OF cine 1 has a negative effect. The socio- economic c o n t e x t d o e s n o t s e e n t o n a t t e r ; a l t h o u g h t h e nunber of ir!oJern a r t i c l e s o m e d which g a y b e r e g a r d e d a s a n i n d e x of x o d e r n i z a t i o n , h a s a s o d e s t p o s i t i v e e f f e c t . Cantraceptive use s t a t u s : c i n e 2. The f o l l o w i n g a r s t h e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t paths: m t r a c e ? t i v e us2 s t a t u s : tke 1 (. 32) nunber of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g : t b e 1 ( .23) i n t e r v a l jetween f i r s r n a r r i a g e and - l a s t lfve birth: tine 1 denand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : tine 2 - (--I61 (-.X) open i n t e r v a l : tiae 1 (- .09) demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : tine 1 (--08) f e r t i l i t y ?reference: cine 1 (-. CI8)  r e g i o n ( z c n e s 1, 2 ) t h e v i f e's e d v ~ c a t i o n (-07: r e l i c i o n (>fuslia) (-. 0 5 ) The n o s t i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of : h i s v a r i a b l e i s i t s orbn l a g g e d w a l A p p a r e n t l y , o n c e a woman becomes a u s e r s h e r e m a i n s a u s e r . Surprisingly- f e r t i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r i n is n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ds f a r a s z h e u s e r s t a t a s at t end o f t h e follow- up p e r i o d i s c o n c e r n e d ; b u t t h e number o f c h i l d r e n l i v i n a t t i a e 1 has a strong positive effect. The s i g n s o f a l l p a t h s a r e i n the 2 sxpected direction. The n u l t i p l e R is o n l y . 2 7 , b u t t h i s i s n o t slmrprfsi g i v e n t h a t t h e " dependent" v a r i a b l e is a dichotomy. 5 . A n o t h e r Look a t t h e relations hi^ I n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , i n o r d e r t o make :he d a t a a m e n a b l e to p a t h a s e v e r a l o f t h e c l a s s v a r i a b l e s w e r e reduced t o d i c h o t o m i e s . Xe now t a k e an look a t t h e various regression relationships, retainiag t h e p o l p t ~ ~ m u s char o f t h e v a r i o u s f a c t o r s , s u c h a s Region, R e l i g i o n , Ty?e o f p l a c e o f residenc - T a b l s 1 0 s h o x s t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o R~ from t h e d i f f e r e n r v a r i a b l e s 5 chey a r e e n t e r e d i n t h e r e s p e c t i v e r e g r e s s i o n s i n t h e o r d e r shown. Thus f o r c h e e q u a t i o n f o r f e r t i l i t y p r e f 2 r e n r e , t h e f i g u r e , . J 4 7 i n t h e f i r s r row of T a b l s 1 0 r e p r e s e n t s c h e p r o p o r t i o n of --araace ia f e r t i l i t y p r s f e r e n c e a c c c c n t e d f c r by t h e c u r r e n t f a n i l p s i z e ( n u m b e r of ch . t 3 l i v i n g ) , t h e n e x t f i g u r e . 0 0 1 i s t h e i n c r e m e n t a l R- a t z r i b u t a b l e ta age at m a r r i a g e , g i v e n t h e FtL of (the p r o p o r t i o n of vari,,:ce a c c o u n t e d for bv) 7 c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z e ; and s o on. The sum o f t h e i n c r e m e n t a l XL's actribat to the -~arious r e g r e s s o r s s h o u l d add u p ( w i t h i n r o u n d i n g errors)-!i3 tke m 2 R f o r :he e q u a t i o n (shown a t :he bottom row o f T a t l e 1 0 ) . Obvic&Sp, ~ 3 type of a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s an o r d e r i n g of t h e v a r i a b l e which n a k e s sense. have chosen t h e following o r d e r i n g : Demographic c o n t r o l s 3ackground v a r i a b l e s Socio- economic s t a t u s i n d i c a t o r s  17 --- S o c i a l n o r m ( I d e a l f a m i l y s i z e f o r a g i r l from a f a m i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f ) Extra- familial a c t i v i t y of t h e w i f e Endogenous v a r i a b l e s F e r t i l i t y preference: time 1 Demznd f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : time 1 Contr?,eptive s t a t u s : time 1 F e r t i l i t y i n the interim F e r t i l i t y preference: time 2 Demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : time 2 The f i g u r e s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 1 0 t e l l t h e f o l l o w i n g s t o r y : F e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a t t i n e 1. The nunber of c h i l d r e n l i v i n g ( c u r r e n t f m i l y size) a t t i m e 1 a c c o u n t s f o r a l m o s t 55 p e r c e n t of t h e v a r i a n c e . A l l t h e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s t o g e t h e r account f o r only an a d d i t i o n a l t h r e e percent 2 of t h e v a r i a n c e . Given c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z e , t h e increment i n R attributable zo a g e a t f i r s t m a r r i a g e i s o n l y .001, that attributable to the intervai between f i r s t m a r r i a g e and l a s t l i v e b i r t h , g i v e n c u r r e n t f a m i l y s i z e and a g e a t m a r r i a g e , i s a l m o s t n o t h i n g , and t h a t a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e open i n t e r v a l , g i v e n t h s t h r e e demographic c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s j u s t mentioned i s o n l y .003. The d e n o g r a p h i c c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t f o r 5 5 . 1 p e r c e n t of t h e r total v a r i a n c e of fertili:! preference a t time .I.&Given t h e demographic c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s , t h e background v a r i a b l e s ( r e l i g i o n , e t h n i c group, t y p e of p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e , i . e . , u r b a 6 / r u r a l / e s t a t e , and r e g i o n of r e s i d e n c e ) 'i - t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t f o r a n a d d i t i o n a r 1 . 2 p e r c e n t of t h e v a r i a n c e of f e r t i l i t y - * p r e f e r e n c e a c t l m e 1. The i n c r e m s t a l R' a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e socio-economi-c I s t a t u s v a r i a b l e s , g i v e n t h e demographic c o n t r o l s and t h e background v a r i a b l e s , i s o n l v .005. S o c i a l no= coneining family s i z e ( i d e a l famiiy s i z e for a g i r l from ; family l i k e t h a t of s e l f ) a c c o u n t s f o r a n o t h e r one p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n s adds nothing a t a l l . v a r i a n c e , and t h e w i f e ' s ~ o r k  18 Demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n a t : i ~ e1. The demographic c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t f o r 31.1 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e of demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n a s of t i x e 1. Age a t n a r r i a g e s u ? p l i e s no p r e d i c t i v e power a s f a r a s t h i s v a r i a b l e (denand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n : t i m e 1 ) is c o n c z r n e d . Given t h e d e n o g r a p h i c c o n t r o l s , t h e background v a r i a b l e s a l l show s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e m e n t a l R~ ' s , t h e y t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t i n g f o r a n a d d i t i o n a l t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l variancz. Given t h e demographic c o n t r o l s and t h e background v a r i a b l e s , c h e s o c i o - e c u ~ o m i c s c a t u s i n d i c a t o r s add v e r y l i t t l e p r e d i c t i v e power, t h e i r 3 combined i n c r e n e n t z l 3- b e i n g o n l y .g05. S o c i a l n o m ( i d e a l family s i z e f o r L a g i r l from a f a m i l y l i k e t h a t of s e l f ) h a s a n i n c r e m e n t a l R of - 0 0 9 , a n d t h e v i f e ' s work p a t z e r n -002. Given a l l Khe exoger.oTs v a r i a b l e s , f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e a t t i m e 1 z c c o u n t s f o r a n a d d i t i o n a l 1 3 . 6 p e r c e n t of t h e v a r i a n c e o f demand f a r additional c h i l d r e n a s o f tize 1. A 1 1 variables together account f o r $9.2 ?ercent of t 5 e t o t a l variance. C o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t t i u s a s of t i n e 1. Almost a l l v s r i a b f e s c o n t r i b u t e 7 s i g n i f i c t n t i n c r e n e n c a l 3-s, t h e e x c e p t i o n s b e i n g e t h n i c group, h o u s i n g c o n v e n i e n c e , s o c i a l n o m , and t h e v i f e ' s v o r k p a t t e r n . F e r t i l i t y i n che interim. A 1 1 denographic c o n t r o l s c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t 3 i n c r e n e n t a l 3-s, and s o 20 che background v a r i a b l e s e x c e p t z t h n i c g r o u p and region of residence. Only t h e w i f s ' s l i t e r a c y c o n t r i b u t e s s i g n i f i c a n t 2 4. . * i n c r e m e n t a l R zz~ong t h e socio- economic s t a i u s v a r i a b l e s . S o c i a i norn c o n t r i b u t e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y , 5 u t - d i f e l s work p a t t e r n d o e s n o t . A s i n Table 9, a d d i t i o n a l - * nm.ber of c h i l d r e n .--anted a t t i n e 1 2 o e s n o t c o n t r i b u t e g s i g n i f i c a n t - L 7 i t i i c r e a e n ~ a l4 - . - - I - Fertility p r e f p r e z c e a s of t i n e 2. e ! The r e 1 a t i o n s n i p ; s of t h e demographic c a n t r o l s , t h e 3ackgrour.d v a r i a b l e s , and eke socio-esor,or:ic s t a t u s F n d i c a ' L o r s co fertility p r e f e r a c e a s of t i a e 2 a r e s i a i l a r t o t h e c o r r s s p o n d i n g relations hi?^ LO f e r t i l i t y ? r e f e r 2 n c e a t t i n e 1. A 1 1 t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n s i g n i f i c a n t incremental R2 , 3 . t h s regression c o n ~ r i b u c s The combined e s p l a n a t o r 1 7 cower o f a l l r e g r e s s o r s i s 5 7 . 3 p e r c e n t .  Demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n a s of t i m e 2 . The r e s u l t s a r e n o r e o r Eess s i m i i a r t o t h o s e f o r demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n a s of t i n e 1, a s f a r as 7 t h e i n c r e m e n t a l 3-s of d e n o g r a p h i c c o n t r o l s , background v a r i a b l e s , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s t a t u s i n d i c a t o r s , s o c i a i nor,, and t h e w i f e ' s v o r k p a t z r r n a r e c o n c e r n e d . XI1 ' t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n a l s o contribute s i g n i f i c a n t 2 incremental R I s . C o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s a s of t i n e 2 . The r e s u l t s a r e s i m i l a r t o t h ~ s e f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a r i a b l e a t the 1. And a l l e x c e p t f e r t i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r i m among t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t X 2 , s. I n g e n e r a l , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s r e v e a l e d i n T a b l e 1 0 a r e t h e saine a s t h e correspond in^ r e l a t i o n s h i p s r e v o a l e d i n T a b l e 9. But t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n v o l v i n g t h e demographic con:rols, t h e background v a r i a b l e s , e t c . a r e n o t t h e saine i n t h e two t a b l e s . T h i s is : o be e x p e c t e d s i n c e Table 9 p r e s e n t s net regression (standardized) c o e f f i c i e n t s whereas T a b l e 1 0 p r e s e n t s i n c r e m e n t a l 3"s g i v e n t h e o r d e r of t h e r e g r e s s o r s shown. I t i s s i g n i f L c a n t t h a t , i r r e s p e c t i v e of t h e way o n e l o o k s a t t h e daca, socio- economic s t a t u s i n d i c a t o r s and t h e w i f e ' s work p a t t e r n have l i t t l e impact on t h e f e r t i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r i m . * Of t h e e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e of f e r t i l i t y i n t h e follow-u? p e r i o d ( = 3 5 percent of t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e ) , 7 3 . 6 T e r c e n t ( = . 2 7 5 o u t o f .35) i s accounted for by d m o g r a p h i c c o n t r o l s , 2nd a n a d d i t i o n a l 6 . 6 p e r c e n t (=.023 o u t of .35) 5y jack- - ground f a c t o r s ; o n l y 2 p e r c e n t E(=.007 o u t of - 3 5 ) i s accounted f o r by socro-ecoca~ . i n d i c a t o r s , . ~ h i l e12.3 ? e r c e n t is a t t r i b u t a b l e t o E e r t i l i c y p r e f e r e . ~ c eand contraceptive use s t a t u s .  From a p o l i c y s t a n d p o i n t , among t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s mentioned above, t5e f o l l o w i n g o n e s a r e of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t : contraceptive use s t a t u s ; f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e ; socio- economic s t a c u s ; and a g e a t m a r r i a g e ( o n e of t h e d e m o g r a p h i c controls). C o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e s t a t u s presumably can b e m a n i p u l a t e d by f a m % l p p l a n n i n g a c t i o n programmes; f e r t i l i t y p r e f e r e n c e by c o m u n i c a t i o n programmes; socio- economic s t a t u s by improving o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o g e t h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , 5y p r o v i d i n g b e t t e r h o u s i n g c o n d i t i o n s , by c u l t i v a t i n g t h e consumption of a d e r n a r t i c l e s , and s o on; and a g e a t m a r r i a g e by l e g i s l a t i o n , o r p e r h a p s n o r e e f f e c t i v e l y by c h a n g i n g t h e s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s of l i v i n g . Note t h a t , a l t h o u g h , a s t h e f i g u r e s i n T a b l e s 9 and 1 0 i n d i c a t e , the kcpact of t h e above mentioned v a r i a b l e s on t h e fertility i n t h e follow-u? p e r i o d , 1975-197 h a s b e e n r a t h e r modest, i t d o e s n o t f o l l o w t h a t t h e i r p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t on f e r t i l i t y is n e c e s s a r i l y s m a l l . The q u e s t i o n n a t u r a l l y a r i s e s w h e t h e r a n y t h i n g at all I can b e L i f e r r e d from t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a r e g a r d i n g t h e p c t e n t i a l tinpact of any ~ of t h e v a r i a b l e s j u s t r e f e r r e d to. To answer t h i s q u e s t i o n r;e esamine b d o w ~I ue changes i n ~ o n t r a c e p t i ~ of a g e a t inarriage. s e s t a t u s o v e r t h e follow- up p e r i o d , and t h e d e z e m i n a n t : 6 . ConcraceptLve U s 2 S t a t u s Taking t h e c u r r e n t u s e of a n e t h o d a s an i n d i c a t o r of c o n t r a c e p t i v e w e _ s t a t u s , we e x a n i n e now t h e s h i f t s , o v e r t h e fcllow-up p e r i o d , i n t h e p e r c a t of vonen who a r e u s e r s of c a n t r a c e p t i o n . - For a a k i n g :he c o v a r i s o n n e a n f n g f u l , . we c o n f i n e a t t e n t i o n t o "fecund" women, c u r r e n t l y s a r r i e d b u t n o t p r e g n a n t , i n c l u d i n g among them s t e r i l i z e d women and w i v e s of s z e r i l i z e d husbands, creaclng s u c h c o u p l e s a s u s e r s o f a nethod.  Tab12 11 p r e s e n t s t h e s h i f t s o v e r t h e follow- up p e r i o d i n t h e p r e v a l e n c e of t h e u s e of c o n t r a c e p t i o n . A s c a n b e s e e n from ' - e t a b l e , t h e r e h a s b e e n o v e r t h e p e r i o d some i n p r o v e n e n t , e s p e c i a l l y i n subgroups w i t h r e l a t i v e l y v e r y low u s e r a t e a s of t i n e 1. Examples a r e wonen w i t h low e d u c a t i o n a l a t t a i n m e n t , E s t a t e r e s i d e 2 t s , X u s l i n s , and s o on. There i s t h u s l i t t l s d o u b t t h a t c h a n g e s a r e t a k i n g p l a c e i n t h e p r e v a l e n c e of c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e . But z u c h r o o n e x i s t s f o r f u r t h e r improvement. Thus o n l y a t h i r d of t h e p o t e n t i a l u s e r s among t h e Hindus and ? t u s l i n s a r e a c t u a l u s e r s a s of t i a e 2, and among o t h e r r c i l i g i o u s g r o u p s t o o t h e r e is room f o r i n c r e a s e i n t h e u s e r a t e . Hence t h e i r i d i c a t i o n s a r e t h a t t h e e f f e c t of c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e i s l i k e l y t o b e f e l t n o r e s t r o n g l y i n t h e y e a r s t o come. By way of background i t nay b e n o t e d t h a t a g e a t z a r r i a g e i n S r i Lanka has been s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g s i n c e 1946, t h e s i n g u l a t e mean a g e a t m a r r i a g e s h o v i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g t i n e t r e n d : (WFS, F i r s t R e p o r t ) The d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n t h e Vorld F e r t i l i t y Survey (1975) r e f l e c t t h i s upward t r m d i n age a t marriage: - - P e r c e n t with a ;? a t n a r r i a g e e q u a l to '? L . 15 yrs. 15-16 p r s . 17-19 y r s . 20+ y r s . I Xomen n a r r y i n g 1% y e a r s b e f o r e t h e survey gomen n a r r y i n g 5-14 y e a r s b e f o r e t h e survey 9 15 73 53 Lof  !<it5 a view t o i d e n t i f y i n g f a c t o r s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i n c r e a s e i n see ztz m a r r i a g e i n S r i L a n b , e a c h m a r r i e d wosan r e i n t e r v i e w e d i n 1979 was a s k e d q u e s t i o n s c o v e r i n g f a c t o r s such a s t h e follcwing: a ) whether h e r f i r s t a a r r i a g e was a r r a n g e d by h e r r e l a t i v e s , b) u h e t h e r t h e r e was a l o n g engagement p e r i o d , and i f s o why, c ) whe'her t h e r e s p o n d e n t worked b e f o r e m a r r i a g e , d ) t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l o f s c h o o l i n g t h e r e s p o n d e n t had completed b e f o r e m a r r i a g e , e ) t h e f i n a n c i a l s h a p e h e r husband was i n st t h e t i m e of m a r r i a g e , f ) whether f a m i l y o b l i g a t i o n s i n t e r v e n e d t o i n f l u e n c e t h e r i m i n g o f h e r n a r r i a g e , and g) where t h e c o u p l e l i v e d d u r i n g t h e f i r s t y e a r a f t e r n a r r i a g e (with p a r e n t s , w i t h t h e h u s b a n d r s p a r e n t s , o r by t h e m s e l v e s ) . I The r e s u l t s of a m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s of a g e a t m a r r i a g e a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s 12a and 12b. T a b l e 1 2 a shows t h e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and T a b l e 1 2 b ~ 2 I t h e i n c r e m e n t a l R ' s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o each r e g r e s s o r ( i f i t i s e n t e r e d i n she o r d e r indicated o r entered a f t e r a l l the o t h e r s a r e i n ) . From T a b l e 1 2 a r h e 1 following p a t t e r n s can be inferred: o Urbanites marry l a t e r . o Women who work b e f o r e m a r r i a g e tend t o s a r r y a t o l d e r a g e s . c @he r e l a t i o n s h L ; , ;nay r u n i n b o t h d i r e c t i o n s, , some wocen working j e c a u s e I t h e y a r e s h g l e , w h i l e some r e m a i n i n g s i n g l e b e c a u s e t h e y f e e l that - o t h e r w i s e t h e y w i l l n o t b e a b l e t o work. 'r The a v a i l a b l e d a t a do m o t p e r m i t s e p e r a t i n g t h e components of t h e two-way r e l a t i o n s h i p ) . o Among t h e r e l i g i o u s g r o u p s , 4- s l i m s marry a t younger a g e s . (Kecause of h i g h m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y between R e l i g i o n and E t h n i c Group t h e stamdard I e r r o r s of t h e p a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s r e p r e s e n t i n g r e l i g i o u s e f f e c t s and e t h n i c - g r o u p e f f e c t s are v e r y h i g h . Hence t h e e s t i m a t e s of the effects d should be i n t e r p r e t e d w i t h caution.) o The y e a r of m a r r i a g e and t h e a g e a t m a r r i a g e a r e p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . o The h i g h e r t h e e d u c a t i o n completed b e f o r e m a r r i a g e , t h e h i g h e r t h e a g e a t marriage. ( T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p may r u n i n b o t h d i r e c t i o n s , b u t i t is). d o u b t f u l t h a t many women p o s t p o n e m a r r i a g e i n o r d e r t o p u r s u e h i g h e r studies. What seems more l i k e l y is t h a t t h e e f f e c t of e d u c a t i o n o n a g e a t marriage o p e r a t e s through i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t s i n e x t r a - f a m i l i a l activities Arranged m a r r i a g e s t e n d t o o c c u r a t r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r a g e s . (It seems p l a u s i b l e t h a t some r o m a n t i c m a r r i a g e s t a k e p l a c e a t younger a g e s b e c a u s e o f a tendency t o " r u s h i n t o t h i n g s , " w h i l e some t a k e p l a c e a t u n u s u a l l y o l d e r a g e s b e c a u s e of t h e o p p o s i t e tendency t o b e p r e p a r e d f o r e v e r y c o n t i n g e n c y b e f o r e t a k i n g any a c t i o n . The a v a i l a b l e d a t a do n o t p e r n i r s e p a r a r i n g t h e two g r o u p s . ) The h i g h e r t h e v a l u e of t h e d o v r y , t h e h i g h e r t h e a g e a t m a r r i a g e , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e more r e c e n t m a r r i a g e s . (This r e l a t i o n s h i p p a r t l y r e f l e c t s t h e tendency f o r t h e b r i d e ' s f a m i l y t o o f f e r l a r g e r dowry i n compensation f o r t h e b r i d e ' s advanced a g e , and p a r t l y t h e i n c r e a s i n g d i f f i c u l t y of r a i s i n g f u n d s needed t o g i v e l a r g e dourv,) The p r o j e c t e d l i v i n g arrangement a f t e r n a r r i a g n a f f e c t s t h e a g e a t . I marriage. ( I f t h e c o u p l e a t t a c h importance t o l i v i n g bv t h e n s e l v e s a f t e r m a r r i a g e r a t h e r :han l i v i n g with t h e v i f e ' s o r husbandzs p a r e n t s 'i - - i o r o t h e r r e l a t i v e s , t h e n t h e d i f f i c u l t y of s e c u r i n g a r e s i d e n c e f o r - t h e n s a v e s n i g n t c a u s e posrponement of n a r r i a g e . ) The a v a i w l e I d a t a show t h a t t h e a g e a t a a r r i a g e i s on t h - a v e r a g e lower f o r z k a s e xho do n o t l i v e by :hemselves a f t e r m a r r i a g e , o t h e r t h i n g s b e h g e c ~ a l .  o Those who d r o p o u t of s c h o o l t o g e t m a r r i e d o r h a v e t h e i r . w e d d i n g t a k e p l a c e w i t h i n a y e a r of c o m p l e t i o n of s c h o o l i n g are a s e l e c t group w i t h r e l a t i v e l y low a g e a t m a r r i a g e . (This i s t o be expect& i n c o u n t r i e s l i k e S r i Lanka where t h e a v e r a g e age a t m a r r i a g e is c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r t h a n t h e a v e r a g e a g e a t c o m p l e t i o n of s c h o o P b g - Note t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s m e a n i n g f u l i n s o f a r a s t h e r e a r e p e w - who r e g a r d s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e f o r g i r l s of m a r r i a g e a b l e age a s a st-- gap arrangement- - to b e d o i n g something i n s t e a d of remaining i d l e : a home-- w h i l e e f f o r t s are underway f o r a r r a n g i n g m a r r i a g e . The b r i d e - t a - b e seldom h e s i t a t e s t o drop o u t of s c h o o l , n e i t h e r have h e r p a r e n t s any qualm i n a s k i n g h e r t o do s o , when t h e arrangement f o r m a r r i a g e is complete. The p o i n t is t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a sratisticaP artifact.) o Those who ;re f a c e d with family o b l i g a t i o n s but a r e a f r a i d t h a t e n t e r i n g m a t r h o n y would s t a n d i n t h e way of t h e i r meeting t h o s e o b l i g a t i o n s , might postpone t h e i r n a r r i a g e . The f a m i l y - o b l i g a t i c z e f f e c t seems, however, t o b e p r e s e n t o n l y i n t h e o l d e r c o h o r t s . These r e s u l t s s e e n t o s u g g e s t t h a t a s t h e c o u n t r y becones more u r b a d r e Z , a s t h e l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n o f t h e v a r i o u s p o p u l a t i o n s e m e n t s i n c r e a s e s , raising money need& t o meet t h e r i s i n g dowry e x p e c t a t i o n s - becomes i % c r e a s i n g l y d f f f i c u l t , and a s :he younger c o h o r t s become i n c r e a s i n g l y d e s i r o u s of l i v i n g by t h e n s d u e s a f t e r m a r r i a g e r a t h e r t h a n l i v i n g i n j o i n t households, t h e a g e a t m a r r i a g e 2s l i k e l y t o be pushed upward. A t t h e s a n e t i a e , i t i s p o s s i b l e t n a t 2s ro=rZc m a r r i a g e s become more 2 o p u l a r and as youngEr g e n e r a t i o n s incressingl:; beg* a:o r e s i s e ehe l o s s of d e g r e e s of freedom due t o f a n i l y o b l i g a t i o n s , t h e a g e zt xarriage night decline. The combined r e s u l t of t h e s e opposing f o r c e s I s i m p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e from t h e d a t a a n a l y z e d i n z h i s r e p o r t . Also un'Krzwd~ a t t h i s t i m e i s hc-J r a p i d l y t h e changes a e n t i o n e d above w i l l t a k e ? l a c e .  I t s h o u l d b e n o t e d , however, t h a t t h e i n p a c t of t h e changes j u s t n e n t i o n e d on a g e a t m r r i a g e i s l i k e l y t o b e tempered by p e o p l e ' s n o t i o n s regarding the i d e a l age f o r a person t o e n t e r m r r i e d s t a t e , notions xhich a r e l i n k e d t o b e l i e f s r e g a r d i n g how o l d i s t o o o l d and how young i s t o o ~I I - - young t o b e a r c h i l d r e n . I n t h e 1979 r e - i n t e r v i e w , women v e r e a s k e d what a g e t h e y c o n s i d e r e d i d e a l f o r a g i r l (boy) t o g e t m r r i e d . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e i r r e s p o n s e s r e g a r d i n g i d e a l a g e f o r m a r r i a g e f o r g i r l s i s shown below: I d e a l age Percent for mrriage of for girls responses 5 15 1.h - t 2 7+ 3.0 - e r E Almost 50 p e r c e n t r e g a r d 20 y e a r s o r below a s che i d e a l a g e f o r x a r r i a g e - f o r a I g i r l ; l e s s t h a n f i v e p e r c e n t b e l i e v e i t i s i d e a l t o gec m r r i e d a t a g e 26 o r a b o v e . I I f t h e s e e x t r e s s e d p r e f e r e n c e s g e t t r a n s l a t e d i n t o practice, s o s t of t h e a a r r i a g e s x i 1 1 zake ? i a c e a t a g e s 17 t o 25.  8. Sumnary and C o n c l u s i o n s The h i g h l i g h t s of t h e r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d h e r e i n i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g : o C o c s t r a c e p t i v e u s e i s n o t y e t widespread i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n . o Unwanted b i r t h s o c c u r wich r a t h e r h i g h f r e q u e n c y i n a l l strata. o F e r t i l i t y beb,avior h a s l i t t l e t o do w i t h p r e v i o u s l y e x p r e s s e d intentions. o S o c i o - e c o n c n i c s t a t u s v a r i a b l e s and v i f e ' s wcrk e x p e r i e n c e do n o t show much e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y . o The e f f e c t of a g e a t m a r r i a g e on f e r t i l i t y i n t e n t i o n s , g i v e n fanily s i z e , is negligible. o. The i d e a l i z e d r a n g e f o r a g e f o r m a r r i a g e f o r wonen is 17 LO 25. V a r i a t i o n s i n age a t marriage i n t h i s range a f f e c t a a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y very l i t t l e (Caldwell, e t a l . 1980). o T h e r e a r e f o r c e s o p e r a t i n g i n t h e ? o p u l a t i o n t o push up t h e a g e a t x a r r i a g e fi-om t h e c u r r c n t l e v e l , and t h e r e a r e 3150 forces o p e r a t e t o push i: down. ~hich One c a n o n l y s p e c u l a t e a s co what c h e coilibined e f f e c t s of t h e s e f o r c e s would b e i n :he coming y e a r s . I t s e a s t h a t m r r i a g e s a t v e r y young a g e s f c r *1 . I uomen a r e l i k e l y t o iecomes t h i n g s of t h e p a s t soon and t h a t - 30st n a r ~ i a g e swould o c c u r when t h e b r i d e i s i n t h e age r a n s e 17 t o 25'5 - o - Xe h a v e ;rot y e t e x a n i n e d changes, i f a n y , i n t h e tendency f c r e Zen aad xoizen t o remain never- married. (Some d a L d ? e r t a i n i l g t o :his t o p i c h a v s j e e n c o l l e c t e d i n t h e 1979 s u r v e y , h u t t h 2 y have n o t y e t been a n a l y z e d . ) Obviously t h e p r e v a l e n c e of a h i g h r a t e of s p i n s t e r h o o d and bachelorhood h a s a d e ~ r e s s i x g? r r e c t -- on r h e f e r t i l i ~ yl e v e l of a j o p u l a t i c n . o I t s e e 3 s s a f e t o s a y t h a t as f a r a s marital f e r t i l i t y is c o n c e r n e d , f u t u r e r e d u c t i o n s v o u l d p r i a a r i l y come f r o n e f f i c a c i o o s RIS~ of contraception. iicw s o o n a l l s a j o r s e g n e n c s of t h e p o p u b t i o n i n S r i Lanka w i l l b e g i n u s i n g c o n t r a c e p t i o n e f f i c a c i o u s l - is h a r d t o p r e d i c t . To a s i g n i f i c a n t d e g r e e t h i s n i g h t d e p e d c p o n t h e c o u n t r y ' s p o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y and i t s d i r e c t and i n d i r e c c s u p p o r t of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g programs. Calcwell, J. C., P.F.XcDonald, and L. T. k z i c k a . 1980. Interrelationships b e w e e n S u p t i a l i t y and P s r t i l i t y : The E v i d e n c e f r o n t h e Xorld Fertility S u r v e y . T a p e r p r e s s n t e d a: t h e Tu'orld F e r t i l i t y Survey C o n f e r e n c e , London, J u l y 1980. F o r s i r , S. G. a n d >l. 8. Suh. 1980. The E f f e c t o f R e p r o d u c t i - ~ eI n t e n t i o n s o n S u b s e q u e n t F e r t i l i t y anong Lov-Fertility Korean Wown, 1971-76. S c u d i e s Ln F a m i l y P l a n n i n g 11(3):91-104. H e r m a l i n , A. I . , R. Z r e e d n a n , T-3 Sun, and >I-C Chang. 1979. Do I n t e n t i o n s Predict Fertility: The E x p e r i e n c e i n T a b a n , 1967- 74. Studies 1 - 2 Family P l a n n i n g l O ( 3 ) :75-95. P u l l u s , T. 1980. I l l u s t r a t i v e A n a l y s i s : F e r t i l i t y P r e f e r e n c e s i n S r i Lanka. - S c i e n t i f i c R e p o r t s . Number 9 , ?larch 1980. X G d Fertility S u ~ e y F i g u r e 3. A P a:h ?lode1 f o r F e r t i l i t y Dynamics i n S r i Lzra-ka T a b l e 1. R e g r e s s i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s (Depenaenc V a r i a b l e : F e r t i l i t y Preference) - - - - - - - - - IJFS 1979 Re- Regressors* F u l l Sample I n t e r v i e w Sample - - Age a r f i r s t m a r r i a g e I n t e r v a l between f i r s t m a r r i a g e and l a s t l i v e b i r t h ( W S ) Incerval since lasc l i v e birth (IrTFS! " I n c l u d e s number 0 2 c h i l d r e n l i v i n g , n o t shown i n t h e c a b l e .  7 Table 2. Xultiple R- from Different Xegressions (Dependent Variable: Fertility Preference) !ST S 1979 Re- Regressor Full Sample* interviewed Subsaic Region .569 .563 Type of place of resrdence Ethnic group Religion Wife's education Literacy (wife) Pattern of vife's work -565 .560 Occupation of husband full sarxple ftgures are from Pullum (1980). *The ~ J T S Table 3. Hultiple R~ of Different Begressions (Dspendenc Variable: Fertility Preference Reinterviewed Sub-sample) 1975 ( W S ) 1979 Regressors (time 1) (tine 3) 1. Children living at t .553 -502 2. Age-related controls and children living .559 .506 3. Those in 2 and region of residence .563 .515 5. Those in 2 and type of place of residence ,561 -508 5. Those in 2 and ethnic group .564 .512 6. Those in 2 a n d thewife's education .561 -510 7. Those in 2 and the wife's literacy .561 -507 8. Those in 2 and the wife's religion .563 9. Those in 2 and the wife's paccern of work .560 T a b l e 4. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f women i n t h e sample by whether s h e wanted a n o t k e r c h i l d s o n e t i c e and t h e number of l i v e i n t h e i n t e r i n : Two-wave d a t a , 1975-1979, S r i Lanka Whether t h e Live B i r t h i n t h e I n t e r i m woman wanted another child sometime I None One o r more ! Total 1,031 1,665 : io Xow %=61.9 R u w 2=100.0 Cell X Cell B Cok,X= 67.2 I 563 811 Yes Row X=69.4 Row ;6=100.0 Cell C I Col,X= 3 2 . 8 Total 1,279~ 1,197 2,076 Xow %=51.7 Row Xz48.3  T a b l e 5. Comparison of I n c o n s i s t e n c y ? l e a s u r e s from S r i Lanka w i t h Z o s e From Taiwan and Korea Aggregate- level Individual-Eevel > l e a s u r e of I n c o n s i s t e n c y X e a s u r e of I n c o r r s i s t e n c y % Inconsist. X Incomsisr. X who X who among t h o s e among those wanted had who wanted who ttaxted Population nore more C sore: no mrer a3d p e r i o d A Taiwan 1967- 70 45.7 1970- 74 31.6 1967-74 47.1 1967- 72 45.1 Korea 1971-76 67.5 77.5 14.8 12.2 55-8 8-4 Sri L a n k 1975- 79 32.8 48.3 47.3 3G. 6 38-1 35.6 P e r annum b a s s Taiwan 1967-74 1.4 2.1 3-1 Korea 1971- 76 3.0 2.b 11.2 Sri Lanka 1975- 79 " Obtained by d i v i d i n g t h e n e a s u z e f o r t h e follow- up p e r i o d by t h e length o f =he period. L . E Sources: Taiwan f i g u r e s a r e from H e m a l i n e t a l . , 1979: Korean f i g u r e s a r e from SiirCn and ( 1 9 7 9 ) ; and S r i Lanka f i g u r e s a r e frorsn T a b l e 4. i = o ~ z ~ r Shfl g0 - - '? i T a b l e 6. C o r r e l a t e s of I n c o n s i s t e n c y : Two Kave D a t a , S r i Lanka: 1975-79. P e r c e n t I n c o n s i s t e n t .-ong Those Those Percent Percent who who Number wanted had wanted wanted of Characteristics more more re I~IO no more A11 women Total D u r a t i o n of m a r r i a g e <5 years 5-9 y e a r s 10-14 y e a r s 15+ y e a r s Wife's age <20 y e a r s 20-24 y e a r s 25-29 y e a r s 30-34 y e a r s 35-39 y e a r s 40-44 y e a r s Sunber of l i v e b i r t h s 0 1 2 3 4 - 3 6+ Number of l i v i n g s o n s 0-i 7 3+ Open i n t e r v a l 12 acnths* 12-23 24-35 36-47 - 43t !<ife's education none '3.5 47.2 30.0 40.0 37.5 325 g r a d e s 1-3 29.2 47.0 31.6 38.1 36-2 1,003 g r a d e s 6-9 34.8 L9.4 29.1 37.9 34.0 700 grade 1 0 o r higher 49.7 51.7 31.1 34.9 73-0 348 :kInclcaes women who were c u r r e n t l y p r e g n a n t z t t h e f i r s : i n t s r v i s w ; c h c i r open =-------l I.,.:-~ -..-.-- -.- n Table 6. (Cont'd) Percent Inconsistent Xnong Those Those Percent Percent who who Surnber wanted had wanted wanted of Characteristics more more more no more 1 women Wife's m r k pattern never worked 34.2 worked only before marriage 35.4 worked after marriage: away from home 27.0 at home 33.7 Ethnic group Sinhalese 30.1 Sri Lankan Tanril 36.4 Indian 'Tanril 34.4 Sri tanka Xoor 37.5 Type of place of residence Urban 31.7 Rural 32.7 35.3 Religion Budhist Hindu PIusliru Chris tian Zone (region) 1 2 3 4 5 6 T a b l e 7. I n d i v i d u a l i n c o n s i s t e n c y by s e l e c t e d c h z r a c t e r i s t i c s a c c o r d i n g t o w h e t h e r t h e w i f e wanted n o r e c h i l d r e n and d u r a t i o n o f n a r r i a g e : S r i Lanka, 1975-79 T h o s e who want more Thosewhowantnoi;..ore 0- 4 5-9 10-t Total 0- 4 5-9 10+ Total Sumber of l i v e b i r c h s 0-1 14.4 2 17.2 3+ * .Age o f w i f e Under 25 11.3 25- 29 17.1 30-34 - 29.4 3% * Wife's education .bone . I 1- 5 6-9 1w * Base t o o s m a l l t o g i v e r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e  N n n n n NUNOCIPI N 3-1hDOC m ...... C O C O O D N N 0 0 N O 0 0 u o o q . . a - 0 0 0 0 O h U G ca4-1N o.o.o.q h 40 (7 U O O O L 1 3 3 0 T a b l e 11. P e r c e z r a f " fecund" c u r r e n t l y m a r r i e d b u t n o t p r e g n a n t women who a r e c u r r e n t u s e r s o f c o n t r a c e p t i o n , t i n e 1 (1975) and t l n e 2 (1979): S r i Lankz T i n e 1 (1975) T i n e 2 (1979) Percent Percent C h a r a c t e ri st i c s N Users N Users \ Religion Budhis t 'Jindu >!us 1im Christ i a n E t h n i c Group Sinhalese S r i L a n k a Tamil I n d i a n Tamil S r i LankaXoor Type o f p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e Urban Rural Estate. Segion of r e s i d e n c e 'one 1 207 .67 268 -66 Zone 2 214 .57 283 -59 Zone 3 184 .41 24 3 .51 Zone 4 238 .29 329 .39 Zone 5 198 .23 761 .23 Zone 6 463 .49 627 .53 Literacy Literats 1150 -51 1566 .54 Xot l i t e r a t e 35A .27 445 .?6 -- .- nlre's p a t t e r n o f work Xever worked 841 .44 1127 .5l !<orked b e f o r e o n l y 134 .63 203 .57 Gorksd a f t e r : Away ' p333 .L2 '~36 .44 Xorked a f t e r : Eone 196 .L5 ? I 3 L-+ - .49 . Wife's education Sonc * - 272 .23 336 .33 G r a d e s 1-5 '3 G r a d e s 6-9 - 612 435 . $2 .57 789 597 .45 .57 Grade 1 0 o r a i g h s r 185 .57 289 .00  T a b l e 12a. Regression c o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n of a g e a t f i r s t marriage on s e l e c t e d r e g r e s s o r s : S r i Lanka, r e i n t e r v i e w e d subsample--women o f a z e 25 y e a r s o r o l d e r a n 5 t h o s e o f 2gt 35 y e a r s o r o l d e r Age _> 25 Age 1 35 Regressors .Age a t n a r . C 25 Age a t mar. C 35 Childhood p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e Urban Estate Rural (reference) Hodern work b e f o r e m a r r i a g e Did modern work .935 Did o t h e r work .516 Did n o t work ( r e f e r e n c e ) Religion Hindu Muslim Christ l a n 3udhist (reference) E t h n i c Group S r i I a n k a Tamil I n d i a n Tamil Sri ~anka Moor Year m a r r i e d .157 . 4543 E d u c a t i o n completed b e f o r e m a r r i a g e .233' . 2703 Engagement p e r i o d L e s s t h a n 1 2 months .I26 -. 035 1 2 n o n t h s o r more ( r e f e r e n c e ) !Jho a r r a n g e d m a r r i a g e ? Persons o t h e r t h a n couple .703 Couple and o t h e r s -890 Couple t h e m s e l v e s ( r e f e r e n c e ) Value o f dowry -003 : .COO ! h e r e l i v e d 1st y e a r cf m a r r i a g e ? !lithewif e ' s p a r e n t s -. 290' U i t h husband's p a r e n t s -. 035 Co~ple by t h e m s e l v e s ( r e f e r e n c e ) F i n a n c i a l s h a p e husband was i n - Not s e c u r e - .267 -126 - Secure (reference) - L Respondent i n s c h o o l d u r i n g . t 1 2 aonths before marriage? * C No - 3 8 6? 1.167 Yes ( r e f e r e n c e ) Obligation S c o r e . G96 .l49= Ip b e t x e e n - 0 5 and -1. 2 p between . O 1 and .05. '? l e s s chan . 0 1 .  7 T a b l e 12b. Incremental X-'s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o r e g r e s s ~ r s when t h e y a r e e n t e r e d i n t h e sequence s h o ~ n and when t h e y a r e e n t e r e d l a s t : A n a l y s i s o f f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g a g e a t m a r r i a g e : Ever - married females: S r i L a n k Age ),25 ~ge)/35 Age a: n a r . < 25 - Age 3 t mar. (35 Regressors -- 9' 9 R 2 b Childhoo: place of r e s i d e w e . 0103 .0 0 4 ~ .01h3 . OOE' ?!odern work b e f o r e m s r - i a g a . 0303 . 03 03 -073' . 0083 Religion .049 3 . 000 -041 3 . 000 E t h n i c group . -003- 7 . 0103 .0 0 2 ~ Year n a r r i e d . E8C' . 0113 .429 3 -292 3 Highest grade passed b e f o r e 3 marriage .035 Engagenent p e r i o d , less t h x a 1 2 months . 000 l\%o a r r a n g e d m a r r i a g e .007' V a l u e of dowry .001 1 1 . (101 . 000 . OCO Where c o u p l e l i v e d l s z 1 2 n o n t h s of m a r r i a g e . $01 F i n a n c i a l s h a ? e husband was i n a t t h e c i n e of m a r r i a g e .000 L :?as r e s p o n d e n t i n s c h o o l d u r i n g 3 12 nonths 2recedingnarriage .005 Obligation score .001 . '?robability j e t w e e n .05 and .1. 2 p r o b a j i l i t y between - 0 1 2-.! .05. 3pro~abilitylsss t h a n . G I .  POPU'ATION b H W A N PESOURCES D I VISION DISCUSSIOS PAPCJIS [ A * by t h e number i n d i c a t e s t \ e p a p e r is 3ank-cocfidential o r othervise restricted.] 3 1 . - ~ Oey A. Heesook, "Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f I n d i v i d u a l s and t h e Measurement of L i f e t i m e Incoaie". F e b r u a r y 1981. 81-2 S u s a n H. C o c h r a n e , "The Economics o f F e r t i l i t y w i t h Examples from Asia" . F e b r u a r y 1981. 81-3 Rashid F a r u q e e , " S o c i a l I n f r a s t r u c t u r c 2nd S e r v i c e s i n Zinbabwe". 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Income D i s t r i b u t i o n : P r oblems o f Yeasurement , D e s c r i p t i o n and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n " . A p r i l 1981. 81-9 S u s a n 8. Cochrane. N i r m a l h J o s h i and Kalpana Nandwani, " F e r t i l i t y A t t i t u d e s and B e h a v i o r i n t h e Yepal T e r a i " . A p r i l 1381. 81-10 J .B. Knighe and R i c h a r d S a b o t , "The R o l e of t h e Firm i n Vase Determifiation: An A f r i c a n Case Study". Apri 1 1981. 81- 11 J.E. Knight and R i c h a r d S a b o t , "The f i e t u r n s t o E d u c a t i o n : I n c r e a s i n g w i t h E x p e r i e c c e o r D e c r e a s i n g w i t h Expansio-?". Xarch 1981. 81-12 J . B . Knight end R i c h a r d S a b o t . "From M i g r a n t s t o P r o l e t a r i a n s : E n p l c y n e n t E x p e r i e n c e , N o b i l i t y a n d Wag=s i n Tanzania" . ?larch 1981. 81-13 A. Berry and Xichard Sabot, o ~ Economic " ~ n ~ m ~ l and n e ~ Development". 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Fay 1981. b 81-19 Nancy B i r d s a l l and Oey ?leesook, " C h i l d S c h o o l i n g , Nuaber of Childre.. and I n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l T r a n s a i s s i o n - f I n e q u a l i t y : 4 S i m u l a t i o n " . May 1981. 1 81-20 F r a n c o i s O r i v e l , "The Impact o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E x t e n s i o n S e r v i c e s : A Review o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e " . J u l y 1981. Also a v a i l a b l e i n F r e n c h as "L'impact d e s S e r v i c e s d e V u l g a r i s a t i o n A g r i c o l e : Revue d e l a Littgzature" . 81-21 ~ a n B cir ~d s a l l and H. L o u i s e Fox, "Why >!ales Earn Xore: L o c a t i o n , J o b P r e f e r e n c e s and J o b D i s c r i m i n a t i o n Xsrong B r a z i l i a n S c h o o l t e a c h e r s " . May 1981. 81-22 A l t h s a H i l l , "The Demographi, S i t u t a t i o n i n Sub-Saharan - 4 f r i c a : A D i s c u s s i o n Paper". ,Hay 1981. 81-23 R. S a b o t , A. B e r r y , A. Hazlewood, .T. K n i g h t , J . 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" P o p u l a t i o n Growth, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Resource T r a x s f e r s , and I n t e r n a t i o n a l X i g r a t i o n " . August 1 9 8 1 Timothy King. " I s m i g r a t i o n from Developing C o u n t r i e s : Same P h i l o s o p h i c c l I s s u e s " . August 1981. R. Sabot and J. Knight. "Why Wages D i f f e r : Earnirrgs P u n c t i o n s i n a Poor Urban Economy". August 1981. J o a o B a t i s t a d e A r a u j o e O l i v e i r a and F r a n c o i s O r i v e l . " In- Service T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g System: Logos I1 i n 2 r a z i l " . August 1981. r t R. S a b o t , A. B e r r y , A. Hazlewood, J. K n i g h t , J. Armitage and M. B o i s s i e r e . " C o r r e l a t e s o f E d u c a t i o n a i A t t a i n n e n t i n Kenya". August 1981. - P e t e r F a l l o n . '+Incomes, P o v e r t y and Income D i s t r i b u t i o n i n R u r a l Botswana: A S y n t h e s i s of Evidence Based on t h e R u r a i Income ' D i s t r i b u t i o n gurvey." 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"La T g 1 6 v i s i o n S c o l a i r e du S6nBgal: E v a l u a t i o n Economique e t P e r s p e c t i v e s . " Xout 1981. (Summary a v a i l a b l e i n English.) 81-51 H i l l a r y P e r r a t o n , Dean T. J a n i s o n and F r a n c o i s O r i v e l . "Xass Nedia f o r A g r i c u l t u r a l E x t e n s i o n i n ? f a l a d " . September 1 9 8 1 81-52 Tlionas W. K e r r i c k . "The Impact o f Access t o Piped Water on I n f a n t H o r t a l i t y i n Urban B r a z i l , 1970 t o 1976.'' August 1981. 81-53 N. K r i s h n a n Namboodiri. September, 1 9 8 1 . "Determinants of E e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka. "