Madagascar - Economic memorandum

FILE COPY Report No. 3389-MAG Madagascar Economic Memorandum November 3, 1981 Eastern Africa Region Country Programs II FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Malagasy Franc (FMG) (yearly average) 1 US$ = FMG 1 FMG = US$ 1975 214.32 0.0047 1976 238.98 0.0042 1977 245.67 0.0041 1978 225.64 0.0044 1979 212.72 0.0047 1980 211.30 0.0047 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Preface This economic memorandum is based on the findings of an economic mission which visited Madagascar in September 1980 and July 19811/. The mission's work spanned a period in which the magnitude of an emerging financial crisis resulting from domestic and international economic developments and government policy decisions made in 1978 and 1979, and their implications for short and medium term economic prospects, were just becoming known to the Malagasy authorities. While the financial dimensions of the situation are now clearly established, available information still does not permit a full assessment of its consequences in terms of recent and prospective trends in trade, production, and real incomes. Moreover, the Government is still in the process of formulating its-policy response, in the form of adjustment policies, expenditure targets, and sectoral reforms, and negotiations are likely to be stretched out over several months in obtaining further financial support from the IMF, bilateral creditors and other sources of assistance. Thus, while the report has established the thrust and priorities of the policy choices which face the Malagasy authorities and has provided an agreed framework for dialogue with them, the size and duration of the slowdown which is now being experienced and the path to economic recovery are still matters of considerable uncertainty. These aspects will be followed up closely in the course of the program of economic work planned for 1982 and 1983, in cooperation with the Malagasy Government. 1/ The mission comprised Mr. J. McGibbon (chief of mission), Mrs. Z. Bozkurt (industry), Mr. M. Devaux (balance of payments and monetary sector), Mrs. P. Eap (statistical assistant), i4r. S. Rahim (macro-economic and public finance). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   MADAGASCAR COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA MAP SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .............. .. .................. I. INTRODUCTION ........................................... 1 II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ......................... 2 General Review ..................................... 2 Sector Developments ................................ 6 Public Finance ..................................... 11 Money, Credit and Prices ........................... 13 Balance of Payments ................................ 14 External Debt ...................................... 18 III.CURRENT POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS .. ......... 20 Short-term Public Finance and Balance of Payments 22 Medium-term Prospects and Policies .... ............. 25 ANNEXES I. Industry Sector Policy ........................... 32 II. Statistical Tables ............................... 41  LIST OF TEXT TABLES Page No. 1. Growth of GDP and Components .......................... 2 2. Gross Domestic Expenditure, Savings and Resource Gap .. 3 3. Composition of Gross Fixed Capital Formation .... ...... 4 4. Agriculture Yields ........ ............................ 5 5. Producer Prices - Selected Agricultural Products ...... 5 6. Central Government Expenditures and Revenues .... ...... 12 7. Monetary Survey ......... .............................. 13 8. Balance of Payments ........ ........................... 15 9. Export Growth 1975-79 ................................. 16 10. Composition of Imports ................................ 17 11. External Public Debt Outstanding ...................... 19 12. Balance of Payments 1980, 1981 ........................ 23 13. Central Government Expenditures and Revenues, 1980, 1981 .... ............. 24 14. Balance of Payments Projections ....................... 30 15. Use of Resources ......... ............................. 31 16. Growth of GDP 1982-86 ................................. 31  MADAGASCAR - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET MADAGASCAR REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- TOTAL 587.0 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 369.3 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE lb AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 130.0 190.0 290.0 238.3 794.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 40.4 72.5 93.8 70.5 707.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 5474.0 6785.0 8480.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 10.6 14.1 17.9 17.5 27.7 POPLLATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 15.5 STATIONARY POPLLATION (MILLIONS) 45.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION ES REACHED 2110 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 9.3 11.6 14.4 27.7 55.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 15.0 18.0 22.3 73.7 130.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 41.6 42.8 43.6 44.8 46.0 15-64 YRS. 55.2 53.9 53.1 52.4 51.2 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.8 2.1 2.51e 2.6 2.8 L'RBAN 4.9 5.0 5.i1 6.5 5.1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 46.6 45.2 45.7 46.9 46.9 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.0 21.7 18.0 19.3 15.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF MIARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF OOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71=100) 89.0 102.0 96.0 89.5 89.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 106.0 108.0 115.0 90.2 92.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 60.0 60.0 60.0 52.7 52.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 18.0 17.0 15.0 17.8 16.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 41.0 31.3 25.4 27.3 20.2 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.2 42.5 46.9 45.8 50.8 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 177.0/c ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL 11.0 26.0 23.9 27.4 URBAN .. 67.0 76.0 55.0 74.3 RURAL .. 1.0 16.0 18.5 12.6 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) rOTAL .. .. .. 26.2 URBAN .. 88.0 .- 63.5 RURAL t. .. 9.0 20.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 8901.1 10172.4 10242.3 31911.8 13844.1 POPLLATION PER NURSING PERSON 3105.0 3353.9 3470.2 3674.9 2898.6 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 469.0 354.4 402.3 1238.8 1028.4 URBAN 115.0 214.8 239.4 272.8 423.0 RURAL 761.0 475.3 517.9 1745.2 3543.2 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. 5.8 4.7 URBAN .. 5.3 5.0 RURAL *. 5.9 4.7 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL *- 5.0 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  MADAGASCAR - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET MADAGASCAR REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVE7GES - MOST RECENT ZSTIMATE)I MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDU CATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 52.0 88.0 94.0 56.4 73.7 MALE 58.0 95.0 100.0 70.7 96.8 FEMALE 45.0 81.0 87.0 50.1 79.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 4.0 11.0 12.0 10.0 16.2 MALE 5.0 13.0 14.0 13.6 25.3 FEMALE 3.0 9.0 10.0 6.6 14.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (% OF SECONDARY) 9.0 9.0 .. 8.0 5.3 1'UPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 70.0 65.0 55.0 46.5 36.2 SECONDARY 24.0 20.0 .. 25.5 23.6 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) .. 39.0 50.0 25.5 CONS1UMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.0 6.8 7.1 2.9 32.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 15.0 79.7 127.0 32.8 69.0 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.5 1.5 1.9 8.0 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 8.0 7.8 9.0 2.8 20.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.7 LABOR FORCE T'TAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 3046.1 3619.9 4321.3 FEMALE (PERCENT) 46.9 46.1 45.4 34.1 36.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 92.8 90.0 87.4 80.0 56.6 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 2.0 3.0 3.9 8.6 17.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 55.6 53.4 51.0 41.7 37.2 MALE 60.7 58.8 56.6 54.3 47.1 FEMALE 50.9 48.2 45.5 29.2 27.5 ECONIOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 41.0/d HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 60. i7 . LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 5.2/d . LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.0/d POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 150.0 136.0 381.2 RURAL .. .. 86.0 84.5 156.2 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. ,, 135.0 99.1 334.3 RURAL .. .. 86.0 61.2 137.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE PO'VERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 50.0 39.7 RURAL ., .. 50.0 68.8 .Not available NIot applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c 1965-66; /d Population; /e Recent population growth estimate is 2.8% for 1975-79. May, 1981  lEfPGIiTIffONLF _SocIAL tODl-TpctE' Ofarool AIthooh tho dot. ar donor door eot a ..oo-olY jadgod the moa r-1rasiren tblc, it otol oo- br nto0 thet cloy co not ba toas- euttooslp oopnuho ooot of tho lark of otaodoodtuad dof.itrioao and oo-pos reed hy diffoto..o co-otosit- oloco thi darn. The data sot .to..- clsiout, -oofo1le udoe..t. sob oc of ioj ed.gdln-t. tooodu, uod c.-oooesorot saro dtforooc..u coo- -toort- Th. tofooroos groPs or (1> tto aur countY grop of rho sbh)at ooogy u-d (2) o oootfy gotop othtueonort- rigker .rorto tooo hno tbooonoto" group of tho ehjoot orsa toy (-.soPt foo CaPital Si,opluedi Oil utu'g-op ah-o 'Middia (aoooo North Aoims rod Mitodlo lout is 00800. botoo of t-ogor uoi-ioa sff.tuioio). ts h, rofo...o. gosp data tho -rtgo. -o poys.iacto -aSootod .ortooa.tic ostr -o b(oion ood ho.- trip ot.o sajoify ooh, teroeto in . ru hao doto a 1-:tatit or Sitro she --oga of --.oot- orog thOo ....ror dodor. -thu coaiobilltto of data uad taao nofoi rors_-torua ho ou irad to relotig roosof -o iodtestor to -otho- oo aT otegon no orly aoof1 Orcrro tha rIuin of ro itodlo-to e0 a rh, uag tho oooopod -efo--ogoos LAND AREA9 (choo...od aqikt.) too I,tc o _toapt-ul Hod-toon, -hoo, nod oco o.la-toc coci Total - Totri .uof toe tro oompotiitg rod 0000 rod iod rutor. orbsn, oc root:) dirtdtd hy tOter ro-potti, rorba of hooptiol hods kortrl-ort . - atlsats of aiottrlaoo rod otuPosr-lly -o Puon.cooly u-11nbl.i.aj pblio atd poiraco g--orn od opotoliord hoopital aodto for- oo puatroos, surht nod hitrhos g atuoat tu its fulioo 1976 data. ltoilitatfo-oocot.- (;t coo ootrbh -ooto por-ettlp atoff Pd by ut saac ot.- phyotiao.. hrtthltah-ros prodrgpirripolLp ott- GNP Ff0 cAitTi foil_) - MP9 a P s -pg ta c. o too~ srtopia.rt dial o-rro 0000 to-l-do. (tr)- rytoo ho--o, tortdo hoatro oriotad by eam rovrir tehod toWorld arktiaa (i977-79 brolo); 1.960, toO ndirsi.. oatsa rot p-r -Irmlp tooffd by a pityrioto (boo hy 1970, oud 1179 duos. -loioa outsat el., oofo o.) ofiok off,, ta-p attest .c.s dustio ord prorido o l~ifetd ono, of modlot.f1 iiio.Pro etotlo- 105010 COOSUHTI9t(t P00 CAPItTA - A-..-' roo-Poira of c-aoccei rotagy (coa tOnal po-pooeucofoo hoopctoio oclodo WHOlo poiooiptlfgs-sol hoaptolal, usod ltgios, ptol, otoral goe -d hydro-, raruo rod goocos-a olo- nod ruro hbroytle,l foos or it.r hoopilcat -tt mdioul ro.d ratrsity rtoit tyf Or kilglrr of tol qcolotP..oopcto; 1950, t970, aod 1979 c-tooo. SP-oia-t-d hoaptotsl --1(oodd oy -odrr stn.l from -houptnl diidod by totobso of hods. PCPGNI.gOO AP VITAL STATISTICS S.too oplti ffd10-fu ~tt.....odo) - Aa of loly 1; 1960. 1970,. nd 19799 0O0S1NG lo,b- ,, Ppolrlt rtcr ttl - atio, of nobor to total pop.otutfo; Ahouhold .o.ot. t ropo ldcdlerho rhuot itto I'ltlo a og osrofor.; 1960, 1970, -r 99 or tho hot..sbo,ld for -tiootoni- ootc Pylattor Poojeott... Aoorccotcr-crcourrc-cra.ohordrrl ooroe Fooslottot ir yato 270 - loororo popooiactotp-jeotlto co brood oc 1980 boooisort ptro I ni s_bo.. nod trl- rryo rootos toalppootoby go otd rot nod thoto mortality aod fertility ,atoo. a-Ililgo -tptotoo Dluliogo ooo.od.ooo-pormaoot stor-O - ord p.rjotr pa-mtto for or-tlity oao trpigo of Ohroo laoro- oor roof o pi oo Ogif. ooysoooooy et hooch iorroosir slth rorotoy'. peto aPirato. o dootoco lootriotp ooc of dotllt. t.tosl. oshor..nd -ori1 loro . sd fo1.ul,if. a rpootaoy -tbilletog at 77.5 yu-re. The pure- Coomtra ollog oth octototty Io Ogiag q-tuos at porrootogo mooefor f-rtiltor ltot also-too sbus, Ool- oesi d-1if- to of tonL1, sobatZ, od rood duttlirgo rupo-ti.oly. trrh rootoy io th-r aootrodo thof boe riro ooogo t si fotulity EDUCATION sod f-ottlicy t..odo f-o projocIoccutre Adjlnt.d tooil-nr Mali.e S tafro ooaio-I ttroypplot 00,t ogro tr ror ool-tt:sl aod, f,nl - boor. ototl, ois rod foral the bioth ots- iooqou or oh. donth ono, aud al.tobse ago ot-st-ors 0- orlotoftOoeathopsery 1-01 00 P prr.ootogstf roopotr- ooto ottot.ina o ohurd roly aft- footility rut. dooIi-r 00 priray othool-aoypicoo oriyOrro hlrrae rho roplaromo lo-s of urictot-oprd t tert, hot rock gruaet.tor psaos hot odloord for diiff.tott ogoho of yoiary odo..tatto; for of -00 Iattlno lot..f oratoy. Th. -taloruoy popolatti ues ra orootto ot- rot rot-d- ttroori-rr ray _tod 100 p-ea00 otLirsood 00 tO, brags af ohe pojo_iod oh--astoeiol of the ouutOt ultra 000I popile u_ Orlr -o bho- ho offititi toho-l ago. Or ohs ye, 20(00 rod tOo -o,ofdrur-o f-otil (07 otsl or raptua-....r tbo - -oot. ru cod fe-nt - fo-pord at bho, oo-td-ry rot tolodotorolso loofooyrsfapp'rrd prhauoy -trttrsro; 'fea s-ttI.- optato it r-ochd - Tha Y..t ohco -toiOrery prroirsrrdtgrol,ootra.. 0 oooroao t-urstr.r. foe Lipt otos but host -ahod. oual f 12 to 17 et y aoof'ogo; --oop-rd.o... oo .r.go-sgly Pst at. k.. - Mid-y-o populutio- Proet our- kidlo-tso flo hootto) of Goairo-ootco ...rrt rf ouorodar) Ooaiur coitotiaeu ,tota af_o, 1960 , i9P roed 1979 data, told coocr,ldrotiol, 00 othor poograoesIhto oportot lod.pesd- Per og. fut sgrtoltoroi luad - Csopotod au ahor ftr agri-sltoro laud toly or so depotrorts of ororoduop i-otiotiore orye90,IP ao 1978 dots. Pu_ji-t ..htbtroi-oreo.udo ray-Ttl tr,te ersold tn Pooolaoioo AR. Stosoroforot)- Childoo 10-10 esa-u. ,ahrt o119- prtray r ardy .. loel dirdo he boot of tsoohoro ir oh, 4Py-e), ard retod (69 yrrono otut) no p-r..ttngoe of id-youo 9090-orsptdglrre tattoo; 1900, 1070. sd 1990 Ott,. (d. fetyros(ors)-Ltsodisfhi, tr read .ad otta) Goolrotiroh Rats.rrar - A.tl - Idoo gtothosrts of tota rid- ra o -sotsa oftotal dolotpopttiaoir g0 17 your aod _r0. y-r popnllei... OoOf- 1506, 1060.70. sod 1070-79. jpoeslotlr Gooth Rato (poocoor) - othe - dArsal georh -aoo of osba p070- (0ffSOOPTIOf erro iroth ORt, (000 tho....d) - A-tral-o birttle Pat tho-etd of itd-y-u taoesto i,oo obr ig t ;poro uoolodso laos hoeruesued 1960aooo lt, 1979, rod 1979 Auto. s:icooy roh1oio.- s_do troth Rats foot oh...a.d - Moral 1daooha pth . -htsds ef mod-pour Raio Roairor fostotor. ooltio All typo of ot..irets for audio popsltiotto; .960, 1Sf70, ar 1979 Auto. b-tdoruto to 8t-orl Pellir P-o tho.....d of poyslotior; ouisdso out GooseR Osrductiro Rtst- Aoe..go roho of dasght,ro a oa ill hear ir lioootosis, o otoi a uo .t yooru ohot roiotatiro rf sodia hts -ool ,rdsto poelod if oht,spsrlo.ra. proomot .go-oP..fifr eato . tosfo;dt frroo mruryrehtrsaa it oilitty r_tes: enoly fir-yao -y,rgoo sodiog ir 1960. 1970. sod 1979. .tto . ostotfo bhliahed lir_riog. Partly Dlocnhooco. ettl(tooo - door -boo of oo-pooru TP Roosi-sofptcrso orolr TV rtooi-or for bt-dosot ta of 11h-rr0.00tr dot.o t a ryto fotra aoippoot rou. gorotol pobic 5 bra,d_e ropolti-o; oore oioedT oor Fail _inoie-sr (Itrerro ofa ridrot)-trr f -rrarri.d to r-srrioo aod io yauruohs sgortrof TV eat, ia.t offort. roo o hitd-horoto o8o (115-4 yoas) 'Or_ro birth-corool d_irs_t Nbarooto (lrol-cio (lro th .....d -rool-Ooro h- oo tho u-osof ie- oi trld rout it orrea groa.P. -oatt f"olygrri oto-oto oopope", ,iouuprata FOOD AND0 NtlTtTON to ho "daily" if itappoarue iruat fea toostausoic. rdot of trod Po-forti- ro Opita f19Or-71=ito) - Irdot of porreycita rorl art ota Ooaa pot, Oloocts a T oR d or tho setotr of poodootiro of all food -oordicti. Poodrotior otoIudro -ed 00 food ard tiohoto e.d dsolrg the yost, iootdtog udootio... to Argti-it, oio_ io 0taodrY_a btia. loodctosto potrur grodo (e.. -tgar.... od tbilo a..tt.. iord of a9 hiok urs edhibe sod cotattrtirote (.g. coff.. erd tot too. rotisdod). dAfregat prodnotios of ouch cruotry Os, bhoIus oLABOR FOlCE rotiotoalo_oro pedueo -P,rccreighte 1961-65 , 1971, ro 0990 dot. Toro L,aho PF.c (th-oerds) - Efoto.mi-11ly ocir, Po.r..... toi. dtog Psr .Pria ototo oatelo poro o tooiortt) -Crspsled Poor ard frtos a -,,uo Yir hut -ocldiog htoosodo-o tuadeoto,ot or-gyoqor-lrot of rot fooe uople orileble is -orotp, poe -uOt r foto p,ooOs.f oil s,oo. -Osfirtt...t it rot-i- rrio r 'ee day.nrtal soprlisu o-RfOto. do-oe-tit produotiro, tuporte iota 000 oropoOub; 1960, l70 ord 1979 Auta. cuport, ord baogooIt Noef.Vt aorpiiau -lode sofoal feod, ooode, Pol roro) - Pra Lehot f-tc to -.rooooo of toro1 IbOo ro =.toct ruod io food p-_osiog,..sd I..... go diotrihsti.o. Ooquire- grolto9o tos) - Llahu foero io feoriog, frtutoy, hurtiag uod moc tot -toclotd by P00 huron o, pheooicloods f- ot.-ro sor- I olto s p_oosmoge of tota 1Oor f00,; 1900, 1970 sod 1979 Auto, eity ood htrlth craidarirg -ti-orootr trop-storo, lody ceighte. ago Godo-try (pornotot - Lbr ro Or otrlL otratoot.... amfaorooOrg ord om da_ islo f popototi-o, ood sl1ietg 10 p-roor so- .t.s el sodaseotty, -so sod gos a ocottof total lobootor 1960, ..tuohrd Isre; 1961-65, 1970, tad 1977 date. 1970 t.'d 199 9 Outo. Ps=rito omttip o-f o tir(grao p,, Oar - Protaco con -st of pso -rpite yetlirto Rt alceoo) - total, -1i., sod f-s., - Pattoipotfro or ort ..Pp Po od05dY N. fo topy of Good Iu doSfird 00 shor. Ra-.orortoaeroae atta,mb r onslhrOso0 qoloso o i soro oohio.od by 00DA prorids for siltspuaro f oo,rl ro foalpponoe ofeall agos seProiay ullr..... of 01 Stur of -rt1 osoostOr P0 doy sod 20 gr--- of-ioi sod 1960, 197f, sod 1979 dro,. Thosr hose..d 00 lO 'o paerfcpstto..r.... polo, proosir, ef shOot 10 gStra shoosi bo rotee psotoir. se erard- ofioloti sog tot--tot of oh, popolatiso, uod log rims o-od. A boroo I--thoothoto of 70 go- of totsl p-otoi rod 21 es-t o fat -osteor rot rE- -oo-1a ot-r-. arioa pototlo as so to-go Per tho cold. rorooso.d by lAO Or, rho Thiod Ooootoio lopoodoey Ratio - Ostir of popoloti-c ord- 11 aod 61 ord 0 tOosi Prod rotoort 1961-OS, 199d sod 1177 dat- to rhe c-co loho oot. Ps Moiorti opY fro Iora ood palse - Psortoi oupply of food do- cler 0 to mOsol 550poto ie gtuu pot doY; 1961-05, 1971 atd 1977 dora. INogeo IIOTtI9OITIO1 Gtild (sse 4-) Sor-lior Rat.otchrad - Aesosl dootho poth ..rs.ud 00 poetoss of Plit lorootooth irau sod cird) -. o,ood O, rit,oht totto Auto d-rlyd foro lift tahl_; 1900, 70y atd 1979 data, of Orsh- - . OOA)TG PoOWtFi TA000? Gotor Life Ra.ootocy ota cotBltLsooro. - 0506 rooht tf yer- of lifo r-iaitgotThe fo1ioig onocraro etr royaerioooraoo 1Porertylooa at. hi-th; 1960, 1970 "d 199 deto sd shoold ho stopotd `Oc croolleutleo-to tf ar Oorsnlity pt.O (too thottord) -A.oon da-ths of irf.ote ondor,Ot POt f..,fEot rrd AOooltro P-ytry Oro- loro (tt) -o -apit) - orh and osral - of ago portht.or (ira hithfo. Aburiolt p-tt00 afees too-) it rht ot lero hbtor haioh a iotl dor _o otfao oterofcoitol to-sl otbo, androos -...roritotly adqordiet plo osootl o-(oood rt7it,ooot go rat roos syly fioolod,s itreatol nsfa t-or rr rorototd hot oso-tu -tratd tiEatdrltroPrtyIooolyi(ISrt00'0)-sht o oo rotidos u toissftith hif-et s-sperohoaio-o I. tha huob- toruropl. uro eioo ooolreo_ heooPo ycco Otool ( etoot ..Pit. dautu hto tr apor diootiruopset of tOo day ir fotohiog tSb_(~b_- i family' soaer resdt dor,ss toicrt Dista., 0000 of oo tiat to-o"-l. rbur. or rrl- lt-oh- e people (ot-a,str oOorl ord Ib esetudootu paroc for choir roprcot- popolati-ra Otr- diopr...l soy Otiod tho ' roihrior to dic,po-ul rok or oithout toot-too, o.f h-.a otorot f -csond troda Data fioniro, tar itt iaror. Key 1901 teolsoocrotBhrican ePslltiot drildad by obor of pruoclicg phoyei- otuoqooifid oo sseIranahool at roiV-tooy loos. Pop.oatier -s Ossiog teroo - Popo.-tiot diruded by oors of pruotiodog sub ord fansl graduate roo,Pretitol r-.... t.d usiotats nu   Population 8.5 million (mid 1979) GNP per capita: US$290 (1979) MADAGASCAR - EXTERNAL TRADE Amount Annual Growth Rates (%' Indicators (million US$ at (at constant prices) current prices) Actual 1979 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 .EXTERNAL TRADE Merchandise Exports 394.1 9.0 -24.3 -14.3 17.3 -6.6 Primary 383.9 8.6 -25.3 -14.5 18.7 -8.5 Manufactures 10.2 22.3 43.0 - 8.3 -28.1 90.4 Merchandise Imports 636.1 7.5 -29.6 22.0 4.9 24.3 Food 80.8 -15.7 - 9.9 61.6 31.5 21.2 Petroleum 70.3 21.0 -27.3 -10.3 14.9 -13.6 Machinery and equipment 198.7 12.8 -23.5 13.1 23.6 21.1 Others 286.3 5.3 -35.5 31.3 -11.7 39.6 PRICES Export Price Index 55.0 76.1 111.5 100.0 102.9 Import Price Index 70.6 87.9 89.7 100.0 109.3 Terms of Trade Index 77.9 86.6 124.3 100.0 94.1 Composition of Merchandise Trade (%) (at current prices) DO 1972 1975 1979 Exports 100.0 100.0 100.0 Primary 99.5 97.9 97.4 Manufactures 0.5 2.1 2.6 Imports 100.0 100.0 100.0 Food 11.3 10.8 12.7 Petroleum 8,6 20.1 11.1 Machinery and equipment 31.3 19.8 31.2 Others 48.8 49.3 45.0 'Share of Trade with / Share of Trade with Share of Trade with Industrial countries (%) Developing Countries % Capital Surplus Oil Exporters (%) 1975 1979 1975 1979 1975 1979 DIRECTION OF TRADE Exports 62 67 38 33 Primary .. Manufactures .. .. .- Imports 67 73 24 25 9 2  Page 2 Ponultion: 8.5 million (mid t9791 GNP oer capita: US$290 (1979) MADAGASCAR - Economic Indicators Amount Annual Growth Rates (%) Indicator (million USS at current prices) 1975 1976 8/ 19778I 1978V/ 1979et 1980Ie 198097 17 NATIrNAL-ACCOUNTS Grocs domestic product 3265 1.3 -3.1 2.4 -2.6 9.8 0.8 Agriculture 1179 -0.5 -8.7 3.2 -6.6 7.2 2.5 Industry 588 0.0 -9.1 3.0 4.2 12.8 -2.7 Servicet i498 3.0 3.0 1.6 -2.8 10.1 13 Consumpticn 2987 -0.3 -1. 2.2 -2.6 8.6 1.6 Gross inv,estment 677 -4.i -16.2 -1.3 -10.3 64.5 -5.0 Exports ofv GNFS 496 17.5 -23.3 12.3 7.6 2.2 -4.7 Imports oE GNFS 894 6.8 -27.6 10.4 4.5 30.4 -6.4 Gross national savings 299 9.3 -11.2 0.9 -3.1 114.8 -4.0 PRICES GDP deflator (1970 100) 153.5 168.8 183.3 195.7 217.9 250.6 Exchange iate 214.3 239.0 245.7 225.6 212.7 211.3 Share of GDP at market prices (