India - Second Singrauli Thermal Power Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2796-IN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE SECOND SINGRAULI THERMAL POWER PROJECT May 1, 1980 This dwomnt h_ a restrided distIbution and nmy be _ed by rcipients only In the performance of their ochd duties.. Its cntents -y not otherwise be disclosd withou Wod Bank auhorzkation.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Currency Unit = Rupee (Rs) Rs 1 = Paise 100 US$1 = Rs 8.4 Rs 1 = US$0.1190 Rs 1 million = US$116,047.62 (Since September 24, 1975, the Rupee has been officially valued relative to a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are now floating, the U.S. Dollar/Rupee ex- change rate is subject to change. As of April 21, 1980, the exchange rate was Rs 8.04 to US$1.0). FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED IN THIS REPORT ARDC - Agriculture Refinance and Development Corporation Limited GOI - Government of India CEA - Central Electricity Authority IDA - International Development Association KfW - Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau NHPC - National Hydro Power Corporation Limited NTPC - National Thermal Power Corporation Limited REB - Regional Electricity Board REC - Rural Electrification Corporation Limited SEB - State Electricity Board UNDP - United Nations Development Program kV - kilovolt = 1,000 volts kWh - kilowatt-hour = 1,000 watt-hours MW - megawatt = 1,000 kilowatts GWh - gigawatt-hour = 1,000,000 kilowatt-hours  INDIA FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SECOND SINGRAULI THERMAL POWER PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiary: National Thermal Power Corporation, Limited. Amount: US$300 million. Terms: Standard. On-Lending Terms: From GOI to NTPC, with repayment over 20 years, including five years' grace, at an effective interest rate of 10-1/4% per annum. Project Description: Construction of the second stage of a coal-fired power generating station, consisting of two 200 MW and two 500 MW units at the Singrauli thermal power station, in the State of Uttar Pradesh, together with ancillary equipment and related works, and about 2,000 km of asso- ciated 400 kV transmission facilities. The proposed project also includes technical consultants' services for the thermal power units. Potential risks associated with the design and timely implementation of the project will be minimized by NTPC's appointment of engineering consul- tants for the 500 MW units and management consultants who have broad experience in major construction programs of this nature. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. 1I contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Costs: US$ millions Local Foreign Total Preliminary Works 0.3 - 0.3 Civil Works 53.5 0.9 54.4 Electrical and Mechanical Equipment 209.6 153.6 363.2 Coal Handling and Transportation 13.4 0.9 14.3 Transmission 122.9 15.5 138.4 Engineering and Administration 48.7 3.0 51.7 Duties and Taxes 60.2 - 60.2 Base Cost 508.6 173.9 682.5 Contingency (physical) 22.6 8.5 31.1 Contingency (price) 145.0 55.7 200.7 Total Project Cost 676.2 238.1 914.3 Total Project Cost Net of Duties and Taxes 616.0 238.1 854.1 Financing Plan: US$ millions Local Foreign Total IDA Credit 161.9 138.1 300.0 KfW Loan - 100.0 100.0 GOI Loan and Equity 514.3 - 514.3 Total 676.2 238.1 914.3 Estimated Disbursement: US$ Millions FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 Annual 50 90 80 45 15 10 10 Cumulative 50 140 220 265 280 290 300 Rate of Return: 13%. Appraisal Report: No. 2745a-IN of April 25, 1980.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE SECOND SINGRAULI THERMAL POWER PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to India in an amount equivalent to US$300 million on standard IDA terms to help finance a project for the construction of the second phase of a proposed 2,000 MW thermal power station. As in the case of the first Singrauli thermal power project, the proceeds of the credit would be onlent by the Government to the National Thermal Power Corporation Limited, for 20 years, including five years' grace, at an interest rate of 10-1/4% per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (2431-IN dated April 9, 1979), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 13, 1979. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large, low-income country with 652 million people (in mid-1979) whose average income is US$180 per annum. The agricultural sector dominates the economy, employing over two-thirds of the labor force and con- tributing over 40% of value added. Although smallholder agriculture provides a fullsome subsistence to many, the land base is inadequate to provide all families in rural areas with an adequate livelihood under current conditions, and many who are landless or nearly landless have only an insecure grasp on the means of existence. Industrialization in India has not been rapid enough to bring about the economic transformation that has led to higher productivity and rapid urbanization in some other countries. The urban population was 18% of the total in 1960, 20% in 1970 and is 21% now. The share of manufacturing has grown slowly and since the late 1960s has remained roughly constant at 16% of GDP. 4. Economic growth has been slow in the past, with GDP growing at a trend rate of 3.6% per annum from 1950 to 1975. Agricultural output grew at 2.4% per annum over the same period. Slow growth in agriculture acted as a drag on overall growth, not only because of its sheer weight in the total, but also because of the need to use scarce foreign exchange to import food. Growth in industrial output has been higher at 5.2% per annum between 1950 and 1975, but not as high as in many other developing countries nor as high as can be expected. 1/ Parts I and II of the report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report on a loan to the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (Report No. P-2783-IN), dated April 24, 1980.  -2- 5. This slow growth has persisted despite a quite creditable domestic saving and investment performance. Domestic saving has grown from 9% of GDP in 1951 to the current high level of 24%. Gross domestic investment has risen from 10% to 24% of GDP over the same period. Foreign savings have never financed a large portion of domestic investment and have financed no more than 5% of investment since 1970. Foreign savings have been important in financing imports, and a shortage of foreign exchange has acted as a constraint on the economy for most of the period. External assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms. Net external assistance is less than 2% of GDP now, has never risen above 3% and fell to less than 1% in the early 1970s. Exports have grown relatively slowly--5.4% per annum in US dollar terms and 2.8% per annum in volume terms between 1950/51 and 1975/76. So far during the 1970s, exports have grown much more rapidly, by 18% per annum in US dollar terms and 8% in volume terms over the period 1970/71 to 1976/77. During the same period imports grew by 17% per annum in US dollar terms but only by 2% per annum in volume terms, reflecting a 28% fall in India's terms of trade over the period. 6. India has the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace than has been achieved so far. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the total economy, it nevertheless has a highly diversified struc- ture and is capable of manufacturing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure--irrigation, railways, telecommunications, roads and ports--is extensive compared to many countries, although considerable gaps remain. India is rich in human resources and institutional infrastruc- ture, although there is much scope for improvement. India is reasonably well-supplied with natural resources, not only land and water but minerals, including oil, gas and coal. With good economic policies and sufficient access to foreign savings, India should be able to manage these considerable resources to accelerate the longer-term growth trend. Recent Trends 7. India has managed faster growth during the recent past. Growth of GDP in 1978/79 is estimated to be between 3% and 4%; this is a strong perform- ance coming on top of the previous year's 7.2% growth in GDP and considering agricultural output grew less than 2%. Even this agricultural growth is highly creditable given the previous years' record harvests in most crops. Industrial output grew by 8-10% in 1978/79. Over the four years, 1975/76 to 1978/79, growth in real GDP, agricultural output and industrial output has averaged 5.3%, 4.4% and 6.9% per annum, respectively. Although these rates represent growth over the depressed base of the early 1970s, they are signi- ficantly higher than the longer-term past trend and comparable to the target growth rates for the medium-term future. Buoyant domestic demand, stagnating output and world inflation have led to significant increases in prices during the first half of the 1979/80 fiscal year. The wholesale price index for September 1979 was 18.4% above that of the previous September. Together, the rise in the prices of food products, crude petroleum and mineral oils accounted for over two-thirds of the increase in the index. However, prices of almost all commodities moved up significantly over this period as reflected in the 9.6% increase in the prices of the residual commodities. Government attempts to regulate the supply and price of commodities like sugar and edible oils,  -3- ceilings on credit, adjustment of some interest rates and the seasonal downturn of the fruit and vegetable prices after summer helped the wholesale price index to level off after September. However, if allowance is made for the seasonal factors, prices are still rising at approximately an 18% annual rate. The Indian economy will no doubt continue to face inflationary pressure during the 1980/81 fiscal year. Its intensity will to a large extent depend on the developments in world inflation, especially the rise in oil prices and India's success in alleviating the supply bottlenecks that emerged during 1979. Although the current inflationary pressures need not seriously impair medium- term growth prospects, given available aggregate resources and production capacity, significant improvements are likely to be required in the organ- ization of key sectors if an economic slowdown is to be avoided. 8. The 1978/79 foodgrain crop exceeded the 1977/78 record crop of 126 million tons, and many non-food crops did well. The 1978 monsoon rains were timely and adequate, although severe flooding in some areas destroyed both lives and property and ruined some crops. The basic inputs into agricul- tural production continued their rapid growth of the recent past. Additions to area under irrigation have doubled from 1.3 million hectares a year during the five-year period ending 1973/74 to 2.6 million hectares a year during 1977/78 and 1978/79. Fertilizer consumption in 1978/79 reached 5 million nutrient tons, an increase of 18% over 1977/78. This growth has been impres- sive, particularly since it followed two successive years of very high growth-- 18% in 1976/77 and 26% in 1977/78--so that fertilizer consumption in 1978/79 was 75% higher than in 1975/76. However, prospects for agricultural produc- tion in 1979/80 are not good. India experienced a severe drought in 1979. The monsoon was delayed and subsequent rainfall was deficient throughout the country. Consequent damage to the kharif crop has been substantial. Tenta- tive estimates indicate a shortfall of 10-12 million tons in kharif crop from last year's level of 78.7 million tons. Delayed sowing, lack of soil moisture, low levels of water in tanks and wells as well as power cutbacks and recent shortages in diesel fuel for irrigation pumps are adversely affecting the rabi crop. Depending on the performance of the rabi crop, total shortfall in grain crop is expected to be 10-12 million tons below the 1978/79 level. 9. The growth of industrial output in 1978/79 came from a sharp rise in the output of food industries, particularly sugar, a modest increase in textiles, important increases in the hitherto depressed engineering sector and the revival of demand for consumer durables. Production would have been still higher but for recurring shortages of steel, coal, railway wagons and electric power and capacity constraints in fertilizer, cement, vegetable oils and petroleum products. Labor unrest also constrained output in some indus- tries, particularly in textiles, steel and mining; man-days lost in 1978 ex- ceeded the high level of 1977 and only in 1974 were the number of days lost higher. Power production increased by 12% but continuing shortages in many States necessitated power cuts and curbs on new demand. During the first half of 1979/80 supply bottlenecks in basic industrial inputs began to retard overall industrial production. In addition to coal and steel, cement, sugar, cotton textile and cotton yarn output fell below last year's levels. Strong demand has continued to sustain other important industries such as fertilizers and chemicals, but it appears increasingly unlikely that these can counter- balance the constrained sectors.  - 4 - 10. The trade deficit grew and both the current account surplus and the balance of payments surplus of recent years shrank in 1978/79. The import bill is expected to reach US$8.4 billion, which brings the average rate of increase in US dollar terms to 19% per annum since 1976/77. Non-foodgrain imports rose even more dramatically by 28% per annum over the past two years. The growth of imports and the liberalization of import control policies represents a desirable adjustment to enhanced foreign resources. Although exports grew much faster during the 1970s through 1976/77 than earlier, export growth in 1977/78 and 1978/79 has slowed somewhat. After rising by 12% in 1975/76 and 23% in 1976/77 in US dollar terms (virtually all growth in export volume), export earnings rose by only 9% in 1977/78 (with little or no volume growth) and an estimated 8% in 1978/79 (with 5-8% volume growth). Although part of the decline is attributable to unfavorable conditions in foreign markets, export profitability has been allowed to deteriorate somewhat. With net invisible receipts in 1978/79 estimated the same as in 1977/78--US$2 billion-- the widened trade deficit resulted in a significantly reduced current account surplus, from US$1 billion in 1977/78 to US$400 million in 1978/79. Despite some increase in net aid disbursements from their low level in 1977/78, the increase in reserves declined from about US$2 billion in 1977/78 to about US$1.5 billion in 1978/79 to reach US$7.4 billion. Exports during the first three months of this fiscal year are 32% higher than the same quarter of last year. Imports in the first quarter of 1979/80 are around 7% higher than the same period of the previous year. However, the impact of recent increases in petroleum prices are only partially reflected in this figure. India's total POL import bill for 1979/80 is likely to reach $3.2 billion, $800 million higher than earlier estimates. As a result, there should be a sharp deceleration in the rate of growth of reserves sufficient to significantly reduce the number of months of imports covered by reserves during 1980. Development Prospects 11. The faster growth of the recent past has been made possible by the much-increased inward flow of foreign exchange from increased exports, workers' remittances and external assistance; greatly improved agricultural performance; the impressive saving effort; the liberalization of import controls; and ex- panded public expenditure on development programs. Although sustaining the high growth rates of the recent past in the medium-term is by no means assured, especially if there is a repeated drought in 1980, India has a level of re- sources with which to manage the economy that had not existed before. The comfortable foreign exchange position, and the large foodgrain stocks have greatly eased the pressures to deal with short-term crises and freed India's economic managers to continue planning a more ambitious course for the economy. The policy improvements needed to achieve the better performance now possible have begun in some important areas but in others have yet to be initiated. 12. The Draft Plan, which was released in March 1978 and is expected to be finalized and approved by the National Development Council later this year, sets out India's development strategy for the five years 1978/79 to 1982/83. The principal objectives of the Draft Plan are to achieve within  a period of ten years: (i) the removal of unemployment and significant underemployment, (ii) an appreciable rise in the standard of living of the poorest sections of the population, and (iii) provision by the Government of some of the basic needs of the people in these low-income groups. While the Plan recognizes the importance of achieving more rapid expansion of the economy than in the past to meet the employment and welfare objectives, the targeted rate of growth at 4.7% per annum is lower than projected in most earlier Plans. According to the planners, this reflects in part the increased emphasis given to the distribution rather than the level of income generation, and in part the need for greater realism in the macro-economic assumptions underlying the plan. While the trade-off between growth and distribution is not immediately obvious from the Plan model, the adoption of a more realistic growth target is in itself well justified -- even at 4.7% per annum, the targeted growth rate is higher than actually achieved during any of the previous Plan periods, and is substantially above the longer-term trend growth rate. 13. In agriculture, despite the 1979 drought, economic policies, dev- elopment programs and secular trends all seem favorable for resuming a period of sustained high growth after 1979/80. Fertilizer prices have been reduced progressively from their very high level in early 1975 and despite some fall in market foodgrain prices, the fertilizer: foodgrain price ratio has fallen to a clearly profitable range. Good harvests and higher farm incomes provide the money to finance higher fertilizer purchases, creating something of a virtuous circle. Pricing policies for many crops--rice, wheat, sugarcane, pulses and others--have concentrated recently on supporting prices to maintain incentives to farmers rather than trying to administratively control prices to contain inflation. The ambitious irrigation and rural electrification investment program in the new Five-Year Plan, if fully funded, will help pro- vide the water control needed to increase yields directly and to induce further productivity-increasing investments. The effective reorganization of the agricultural extension service will raise yields as it takes hold gradually across India. Finally, there are several heartening trends in foodgrain pro- duction: one is the steady growth of area planted to high-yielding varieties of rice; another is the growing adoption of summer rice cultivation in the traditional wheat-producing areas (Punjab and Haryana). These two trends along with the other favorable developments have caused rice production to rise impressively in the last two years. Another good omen for foodgrain production is the rapid growth of winter wheat cropping in traditional rice areas (West Bengal, Assam and Orissa). 14. In industry, despite some uncertainty in industrial policy and the lack of strong policy stimulus to improve efficiency in the industrial structure, recently strengthened demand forces, increase in planned invest- ment along with adroit input supply management should allow the industrial sector to continue to grow at the improved rate of the recent past, at least for the near- and medium-term future. Over the longer term, growth of indus- trial production at or above the rate experienced in the recent past--e.g., 7% per annum during the last four years--will require some changes in policy to induce a more efficient industrial structure. Recent industrial policies have sent mixed signals to private manufacturers and investors. Some, such as reserving certain lines of production for small-scale enterprises or prohibit- ing the location of new firms in municipal areas, have been restrictive.  -6- Others have been stimulative, such as the raising of the exemption limit of industrial licensing for capital investment or favorable adjustments in the pricing and production controls in several major industries, including cement, steel, and textiles. In addition the liberalization of import controls is of considerable benefit to increasing industrial production. However, there are some worrisome supply shortages that are currently threatening continued rapid industrial growth. Many can be handled through imports, if needed, as long as India maintains a healthy foreign exchange position. However, two supply constraints likely to persist in the future--namely, rail transport and power--cannot be eased through imports. The new Plan contains a major power investment program to increase capacity rapidly. The railway investment pro- gram is more modest. Another crucial input into both of these sectors, and into most other major sectors, is coal, whose supply needs careful management. 15. The main reason for expecting sustained growth in industrial pro- duction is improvement in demand prospects for each of the four major sources of industrial demand. The first is market demand for manufactured consumption goods, which is expected to pick up in response to the increase in disposable income due in particular to improvement in agricultural output. Although its effect has been delayed somewhat, this broad-based demand is finally making itself felt and is expected to continue into the future unless the growth in agricultural output is constrained by repeated droughts. Another source of demand is public expenditure on development projects, which has grown in a major way in the last few years and is scheduled to continue to grow under the new Five-Year Plan. A third source of growth is export demand for indus- trial goods. There has been a sustained growth in the export of manufactures such as engineering goods, garments, gems, finished leather and some chemical products. This export growth should continue in the future with proper policy support. A final source of growing demand is private investment by both the household and corporate sectors. There are as yet only a few signs of this growth, such as increased disbursement by term lending institutions and in- creased use of inputs; investments should become stronger as growth in the other sources of demand continues and as capacity limitations begin to con- strain production in more industries. The net result of increasing demand should be continued high growth in industrial production in the near and medium term within existing policies. 16. Import policy is an area where there has been significant improve- ment in the recent past; but some improvement in export policy is required to raise incentives to export. India has liberalized import control policy significantly in the past two years and imports have responded. Future growth in imports, and in the benefits of price stability, enhanced production and increased efficiency which imports bring, will depend to a great extent on how the now liberalized policy is administered. A delicate touch is required to yield the benefits without bringing about undesirable damage to vulnerable industries. India has the foreign resources to allow imports to grow at the rapid rates of the past two years for a few more years and continue to relax the very severe restraints imposed on the economy during the early 1970s by suppression of imports. But, given the import liberalization undertaken so far and the expected growth of imports, by the end of the Plan period (1982/ 83), foreign exchange reserves will have fallen to six months of imports, or less, and some adjustment in the balance of payments will be required. Part  - 7 - of the adjustment will very likely be a reduction in the growth rate of imports; the import bill need not grow 15% in volume terms indefinitely to sustain the target growth in GDP. Part of the adjustment must come from the achievement of a growth rate of exports in the vicinity of 7-8% or higher in volume terms. Faster export growth is needed not only to provide the foreign exchange to sustain the rapid growth in imports but also to allow foreign demand and competition to improve the efficiency of Indian industry. Finally, part of the adjustment should come from an increased net transfer of external assistance. 17. India's population policy continues to aim at reducing the birth rate to 30 births per thousand people by 1983 through completely voluntary acceptance of fertility control methods supplied by a family welfare system integrated with the supply of basic health, maternal and child health and nutrition services. Since 1977, the family planning achievements in terms of number of acceptors have been below that needed to achieve the 1983 goal or even to keep the birth rate from rising above its current level. The low performance is primarily the result of the reaction to the harsh birth control policies introduced during 1976. Since then family planning performance has been gradually returning to the rising trend which was discernible before it was disrupted by the intensive drive of 1976/77. Given continued support for the program of family welfare, Bank estimates indicate that India's rate of population increase should remain below 2% per annum and fall to 1.5% by about the year 2000. Despite the declining trend in the rate of population increase, a net reproduction rate (NRR) equal to one (replacement level) would only be achieved around the year 2020. At this time, the total population is estimated to reach 1.2 billion persons, an increase of about 84% over the mid-1979 level of 652 million. 18. In addition to stimulating overall economic growth and constraining population growth, reduction of poverty in India requires special attention to ways of raising the income and productivity of low-income groups. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of landless laborers and small farmers. The prospects for alleviating their poverty by providing these families with more land are not good because of the virtual absence of uncultivated arable land, the slow progress in implementing land reform and the limited amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out. Estimates of the amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out vary greatly. One estimate is that there would be about 9 million hectares avail- able for distribution. This compares to roughly 45 million families in the two poorest groups in rural India: landless families and families owning less than one hectare of land, whose average holding is 0.31 hectares. An approach to the amelioration of poverty more promising than land reform is the creation of more employment opportunities for the landless and small farmers in rural areas. Although the basic thrust must come from the market by a more rapidly increasing agricultural output, there will be a role for employment-intensive rural works programs. The new Plan provides for increased rural employment both through direct employment schemes and through ambitious programs of investment in rural infrastructure in addition to the more general rural development programs.  - 8 - PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 19. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 57 loans and 118 development credits to India totalling US$2,529 million and US$7,255 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,051 million had been repaid, and US$3,377 million was still undisbursed as of February 29, 1980. Bank Group disbursements to India in the current fiscal year through February 29, 1980, totalled US$366 million, representing an increase of about 32% over the same period last year. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of February 29, 1980, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 20. Since 1959, IFC has made 18 commitments in India totalling US$72.6 million, of which US$17.4 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$40.7 million, US$31.6 mil- lion represents loans and US$9.1 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of February 29, 1980, is also included in Annex II (page 5). 21. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit opera- tions. Major irrigation, marketing, seed development, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrumental in facilitating better capacity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in supporting infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family planning, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 22. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, industry, power, urban development and water supply remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs such as credit for on-farm investments, improved water management and intensification and stream- lining of extension systems, form an important aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to proj- ects benefitting small farmers. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infra- structure and industrial investments will focus on agriculture-, export- and energy-related projects. 23. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in large part to the response of the aid community, India has success- fully adjusted to the changed world price situation. However, the basic need  - 9 - for foreign assistance, to augment domestic resources, stimulate investment and accelerate economic growth, remains. As in the past, Bank Group assist- ance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity -.J competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Con- sequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sectors as agriculture, irrigation, rural water supply and medium- and small-scale industry. 24. Although the growth prospects of the economy have improved, India's poverty and needs are such that as much as possible of India's external capi- tal requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and India may be regarded as creditworthy for some supplemental Bank lending. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was 12% in 1978/79 and is projected to remain below 20% through 1995/96. As of February 29, 1980, outstanding loans to India held by the Bank totaled US$1,519 million, of which US$579 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$940 million. 25. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 62%, 27% and 38%, respectively, in 1978/79. On March 31, 1979, India's outstanding and dis- bursed external public debt was US$15.3 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$4.6 billion or 30% (IDA's US$4.0 billion and IBRD's US$0.6 bil- lion). Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1978/79, about 17.5% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. PART III - THE POWER SECTOR Background 26. The performance of the Indian power supply industry and the economy as a whole are closely linked. Alternative sources of energy are not readily available in the amounts needed, and shortage of power has an immediate impact on other activities of the economy; thus, economic growth and improvement of the standard of living depend critically on the development of the power sector. In recent years, as in other parts of the world, energy matters have been receiving top priority consideration in the policy planning of Central and State Governments, on par with food production and distribution. Resources allocated to the power sector have significantly increased during this period, but pervasive power shortages prevail. While per capita consumption of elec- tricity has been rising in India, it remains among the lowest in the world at about 130 kWh per annum. Although investment in the development of the  - 10 - power sector has been emphasized, demand for power has been outstripping sup- ply. The direct loss of value added due to power shortages is estimated at about 3% of GDP. Development of the Power Sector 27. In the past, investments in power generation, transmission and dis- tribution were made largely by the States and, while transfers of power between States took place as the power system expanded and demand grew, there was no conscious attempt at the development of power on a broad national or Regional basis. Hydro power possibilities were identified throughout India, but budget constraints, water rights problems between States, and other considerations prevented any large-scale development, leaving a large part of hydro power potential untapped except for some developments that were carried out by States individually or jointly with other States--e.g., Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan. 28. Power Supply and Demand. In the 1950s and 1960s, installed capacity and power generation managed to keep pace with the nation's demand for power, both growing at an average annual rate of about 12%. Since 1970, the situation has deteriorated. Delays in commissioning new power projects, operation and maintenance problems and insufficient investment under severe budget constraints have led to a critical situation in which demand for power outstrips supply. This was exacerbated by poor monsoons and an unstable coal supply caused by disruptions in coal mining and transport. Between 1970/71 and 1974/75, growth in power generation averaged only 5% annually. In the following years, 1975/76 and 1976/77, the situation improved as the result of two successive good mon- soons, improved coal supply, and a concerted effort to improve project imple- mentation, thermal capacity utilization and overall power system management. Capacity grew by 10% in 1975/76 and 8% in 1976/77, while generation increased by 13% and 11.5%, respectively, reflecting improved capacity utilization. in 1977/78, however, generation increased by less than 4% in spite of a 9% increase in capacity, due mainly to longer outage periods than normal and longer periods to commission new plant than expected. The higher growth trend resumed in 1978/79, with an increase of about 12% in installed capacity and 7% in power generation. Even so, power shortages persisted in many districts of the country, particularly in the Eastern Region, and India's economic activity, particularly in the industrial sector, was adversely affected. Total installed generating capacity as of March 1979 was 29,000 MW, including non-utility plant. Of this total generating capacity, about 60% was conventional thermal, 38% hydro and the balance nuclear. Although additional new generation capacity of about 10% (3,000 MW) is expected to have been commissioned in 1979/80, power shortages will continue to prevail. Installed capacity in the Northern Region as of March 1979 was 7,700 MW, consisting of 3,800 MW thermal, 3,700 MW hydro and the balance nuclear. Industry consumes about 66% of all electricity sold, while agriculture (mainly irrigation) accounts for another 14-15%. As a result of accelerated agricultural development programs, there has been a marked growth of power consumption in the rural areas where more than 80% of India's population live. The number of electrified villages, for example, grew from just over 3,000 in 1950/51 to some 230,000, or over one-third of all the vil- lages in India, by 1979. The Northern Region has put special emphasis on rural electrification. As a result, only 52% is consumed by industry, compared  - 11 - with the all-India average of 66%. In line with the relatively high economic growth rates attained in the Region, energy consumption has been growing at an average annual rate of 14.5%. Sector Institutions 29. The institutional structure of the Indian power sector is complex. One of the main reasons is that electricity supply is a concurrent subject, within the jurisdiction of both the Central Government and the State Govern- ments under the Indian Constitution and the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948. This means that the responsibility for supplying power is shared between the Central Government and the State Governments, and full agreement between the Center and the States is required for the implementation of most actions. With the rapid expansion of the power sector, there has been the increasing need to coordinate the activities in the power industry beyond State bound- aries, and various agencies have been established with a view to promoting integrated power development in the country. The principal agencies in the sector are: (i) the State Electricity Boards (SEBs); (ii) Regional Electricity Boards (REBs); (iii) the Central Electricity Authority (CEA); (iv) the two Central power generating corporations--the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and the National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC); and (v) the Rural Electrification Corporation (REC). 30. State Electricity Boards. The SEBs were established by the State Governments under the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948. Their major task at the time of establishment was to bring together the small individual, often independent privately owned power plants and facilities within their respec- tive States. The SEBs continue to promote the coordinated development of the generation, supply and distribution of power within their respective States and to control and regulate private sector power supply undertakings. At the present time, the States own or control about 90% of India's power generation facilities. While the SEBs are corporate entities and enjoy some autonomy in the management of their day-to-day operations, they are under the effective control of their State Governments in such policy matters as capital invest- ment, finance, tariff changes and personnel. As a means of improving collab- oration between the SEBs and establishing power systems on a broader regional basis, four Regional Electricity Boards (REBs) were established between 1964 and 1966 by common resolution of the State and Central Governments, to help develop integrated power systems in their respective Regions, and thus pre- pare for the transition from separate power systems at State level to Regional systems and finally to an interconnected national grid. The chairmanship of each REB is assumed in rotation by the Chairmen of the SEBs in the Region, and engineers of constituent SEBs are seconded to the REBs. At present, the REBs function in an advisory capacity for coordination of generation schedules, maintenance programs, and interstate power transfers. The potential role of the REBs in the light of the progressing integration of Indian power sector operations is being reviewed by the Government of India (GOI). The SEBs of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan and the Delhi Electricity Supply Undertaking (DESU) are the major power supply authorities in the Northern Region, and will be the recipients of power from the Singrauli station.  - 12 - 31. Central Electricity Authority. The CEA was set up in 1950 to be responsible for developing a national policy for power development, and to coordinate the activities of the various planning agencies involved in elec- tricity supply. As a result of the amendments to the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948, which became effective in October 1976, the scope of the CEA's functions was expanded. Accordingly, in addition to its general responsi- bility outlined above, CEA was made responsible for the formulation of power development plans, optimization of investments in the power sector, training of personnel, interconnected system operations, and research and development. The SEBs are required to submit their investment proposals to the CEA for technical and economic appraisal in a national context. 32. NTPC and NHPC. In order to cope with the persistent inadequacy of power supply to meet the growing demand--a situation which has increasingly prevailed since 1970--GOI made a policy shift and has undertaken to supplement the efforts of the States by constructing large-scale Centrally-owned thermal power stations at coal fields in each of the four Regions, as well as large hydro power generating stations--a step to interconnect the systems beyond conventional State boundaries. This would lead ultimately to an integrated national power grid. Accordingly, the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and the National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC) were established in November 1975 under the Companies Act, 1956, as public corporations, wholly owned by GOI, with authority to design, construct, own and operate generating plant and associated transmission facilities and supply power in bulk directly to the States. The Centrally owned generating stations, including the Singrauli power development in the Northern Region, are designed to supplement the States' activities and add new power generation capacity effectively within the shortest period of time. They will ultimately form part of the national power system and will supplement power supply under bulk supply contracts to the States in the Region in which they are located. 33. Rural Electrification Corporation. To help SEBs undertake the task of rural electrification, the Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) was established in 1969 as a public corporation, wholly owned by GOI. Its main institutional objective is to finance rural electrification schemes prepared by SEBs throughout India, functioning as a financial intermediary with tech- nical expertise, and ensuring the efficient on-lending of funds drawn pri- marily from GOI. In undertaking the task, REC is directed to coordinate its lending operations with the activities of other agencies, such as the Agri- cultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC), which provide financing for rural development. Although the amount of REC financial support is small in relation to total SEB operations in the power sector, REC currently supports more than half of total rural electrification expenditures. Future Development 34. With the rapid growth of the power sector accompanied by the increasing complexity of its operation, the need to undertake an integrated national approach to sectoral development is recognized by GOI. Some encour- aging developments have been initiated. For example, the unified operation of power systems on a Regional basis has commenced, although still on a limited basis. The Southern Regional grid has been in operation since 1972 with inter- connected 220 kV transmission, and progressive integration of power systems  - 13 - in other Regions is intended to pave the way for a national grid. Provision was made under the Fourth Power Transmission project (Credit 604-IN) to help finance the cost of consultants to study the technical, economic and financial aspects of the long-term national plan for the power sector. Such a plan would also include a 400 kV system study which is designed to establish primary grid configurations to be adopted in developing the national grid. The 400 kV system study was commenced by CEA and the first phase of the planned work has been completed. Since the study is an essential prerequisite for formulating sound policies for future development of the sector, GOI intends to continue it as part of integrated long-term national power planning. The operation of regional systems, which will be ultimately integrated into a national grid, requires large numbers of technical personnel trained in operation of sophis- ticated load dispatch equipment and interconnected systems operation. A UNDP project designed to assist CEA in developing programs for staff training for operation of the future load dispatch centers is expected to be implemented shortly upon submission of a project proposal by GOI. 35. The Government has recognized that all aspects of the sector need to be reviewed and that satisfactory solutions have to be found for the various sector development problems. Consequently, GOI established a high-level com- mittee under the chairmanship of V.G. Rajadhyaksha. The Committee has appointed seven panels of leading experts in both public and private sectors which are reviewing: (a) power planning; (b) project formulation and implementation; (c) operation and maintenance; (d) organization and management; (e) finance, financial management and tariffs; (f) rural electrification; and (g) research and development. The Committee is expected to submit its findings and recom- mendations to GOI during 1980. The Bank Group will continue to take an active interest in the Committee's findings. 36. During the five-year period 1979/80-1983/84, new generating capacity is expected to total some 18,900 MW, of which about 13,000 MW would be thermal and 5,000 MW hydro. The construction of some 15,000 km of 400 kV transmission is planned to enable the evacuation of the power output through the integrated Regional systems. In the Northern Region, new capacity of about 4,700 MW is expected to be commissioned (including 840 MW at Singrauli), which would bring the installed capacity to 12,600 MW. In 1981/82, the year when the first 200 MW unit of the Singrauli development will be operational, the Northern Region is still likely to have a capacity deficit of some 11% and the anticipated shortfall is likely to reach more than 12% (or about 1,100 MW) in 1983/84. Power shortages will therefore continue to persist until well beyond 1984. With respect to rural electrification, by the end of 1983/84, the Government plans to electrify an additional 100,000 villages and about two million irri- gation pumps and to reinforce systems in the villages already electrified. Bank Group Operations and Strategy in the Power Sector 37. Since 1954, the Bank has made nine loans to India for power projects amounting to US$334.5 million and IDA twelve credits totalling US$1,171 mil- lion. Of the total, US$870.5 million is for financing of generating plant; US$23 million is for the purchase of construction equipment for the Beas hydro- electric project; US$380 million for the provision of high voltage transmission;  - 14 - and US$232 million for the support of rural electrification schemes. Nine loans and credits for generating plant, the Beas project (Credit 89-IN) and the first three transmission projects (Loan 416-IN and Credits 242-IN and 377-IN), have been completed. The Fourth Transmission project (Credit 604-IN) is proceeding satisfactorily notwithstanding initial delays in preparation of specifications and in contract awards for sophisticated load dispatch equip- ment; the credit proceeds of US$150 million were fully committed by the end of 1979. The loan to the Tata Electric Companies under the Third Trombay Thermal Power project (Loan 1549-IN), which was approved in April 1978, is progressing satisfactorily. The First Singrauli (Credit 685-IN of April 1977) and Korba (Credit 793-IN of May 1978) projects are also on schedule. The First Rural Electrification credit (Credit 572-IN of July 1975) has been fully committed. The Ramagundam Thermal Power project (Credit 874-IN and Loan 1648-IN of February 1979) and the Second Rural Electrification project (Credit 911-IN of June 1979) are still in the early stages of implementation. 38. The Bank Group has cooperated with the Government in seeking solu- tions to a number of difficult, complex and politically sensitive problems which have confronted the Indian electricity supply industry since Independ- ence. The sensitivity of Center-State relations and the political constraints, arising from the fact that electricity supply is within the concurrent juris- diction of both Central and State Governments, have dictated a policy of seek- ing progress through cooperation. More specifically, the Bank Group's main objectives of lending operations to the Indian power sector are: (a) accel- erating the installation of generating capacity and promoting measures to improve the technical levels of operation and maintenance of existing plant; (b) fostering development of comprehensive long-range Regional and national system plans which would assure implementation of a least-cost power develop- ment program; (c) strengthening of the sector organization and (d) strengthen- ing of the finances of the institutions involved in the sector, particularly of the SEBs. 39. The basic approach pursued by the Center has been one of seeking consensus through persuasion. Some noteworthy results have been achieved, which include: (i) amendment of the general provisions of the Electricity (Supply) Act in 1976, to strengthen the role of the CEA and to authorize the establishment of NTPC and NHPC; (ii) the establishment of the Regional Electricity Boards and later of the Centrally owned power companies, which mark the first important steps towards nationwide power operation; (iii) the recent amendments to the financial provisions of the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948 which provide for the development of SEBs on a more commercial basis through financing from internal sources a reasonable proportion of their investments; (iv) tariff studies by a number of SEBs with a view to reassessing tariff policies; (v) preparation of action plans by a number of SEBs designed to maintain or restore the 9-1/2% rate of return through tariff increases, rationalization of manpower requirements and other cost-effective schemes; and (vi) progress of NTPC's generation/transmission construction program with Bank Group assistance. Implementation of the program will make a significant contribution to the gradual elimination of the shortfall of power; further improvements are anticipated, which when they are fully carried out, should have far reaching consequences to the Indian power industry.  - 15 - 40. There remain a number of areas which have been the cause of conti- nuing concern to the Bank Group and the Government. These include: (i) nation- wide long-range planning for power development; and (ii) the financial position of a number of the SEBs. The Government has requested Bank Group assistance in pursuing its planned power development program. Given the --sive need for funds in a short period of time and the opportunity to help in fostering integ- rated power development in India, the Bank has financed three "super-thermal" projects. The proposed operation is the fourth in the series. The construc- tion of large coal-fired generation plant at Regional centers serves to integ- rate sector development on a more rational basis than ever before and helps to improve reliability of power supply. It also contributes to planning and development of a Regional and ultimately national transmission grid and to emergence of REBs as responsible planning and coordinating institutions. The appraisal mission discussed with CEA, NTPC and NHPC the content of a long-range national power development study designed to prepare a least-cost power devel- opment program. Based on terms of reference suggested by the Association for such a study, preparatory work has been initiated. Presently, India's Eleventh Annual Power Survey Committee is engaged in projecting the medium- and long- term power requirements, which form one of the basic inputs for the long-term power planning studies. Completion of the long-term national power development study is expected by early 1982. With respect to the SEBs' financial perfor- mance, some progress has been noted, but the financial viability of SEBs remains an important objective of Bank Group involvement in the power sector (paragraphs 55 and 56). PART IV - THE PROJECT 41. The project was appraised by a mission which visited India in May/ June 1979. A report entitled "India - Second Singrauli Thermal Power Project Staff Appraisal Report" (No. 2745a-IN, dated April 25, 1980) is being distri- buted separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held in Washington in April 1980. GOI and NTPC were represented by a delegation coordinated by Mr. S. C. Jain of the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. A supplementary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. Project Description 42. The proposed project represents the second stage of the first Centrally owned large-scale thermal power development in India, comprising two additional 200 MW and two 500 MW coal-based generating units, together with ancillary equipment and related works, and the associated 400 kV trans- mission facilities (about 2,000 km of single circuit lines and associated equipment). The proposed extension would bring the Singrauli power station to its final installed capacity of 2,000 MW. The site of the power station is near the Singrauli coal field at Kota in the State of Uttar Pradesh. The two 200 MW units are expected to be commissioned in the latter half of 1983 and early 1984, and the two 500 MW units in mid-1985 and mid-1986.  - 16 - Project Cost and Financing 43. The project cost, including contingencies and excluding duties and taxes and interest during construction, is estimated at about US$854 million equivalent, of which about US$238 million represents the estimated foreign exchange costs. Duties and taxes add about US$60 million. 44. The proposed credit of US$300 million would provide about 35% of the cost of the project, excluding interest during construction and duties and taxes. The Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau (KfW) of West Germany will provide DM 185 million (US$100 million equivalent) towards financing the two 500 MW turbo-generator units and auxiliary equipment. The balance of the funds required, aggregating about US$514 million equivalent, would be provided by the Government in the form of loan and equity capital. Procurement and Disbursement 45. All items financed under the proposed credit, would be procured by NTPC through international competitive bidding in accordance with the Bank/IDA guidelines. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against 100% of: (a) the c.i.f. cost of imported items; (b) the ex-factory cost, net of duties and taxes, of items procured from Indian suppliers; and (c) the cost incurred for technical advisory services of consultants. Indian manufacturers compet- ing under international competitive bidding would be granted a preference margin of 15% or the current rate of import duty, whichever is less. It is expected that local manufacturers of equipment and machinery would submit the lowest conforming bids for most of the items financed under the credit. Docu- ments for individual contracts estimated to cost US$1,500,000 or more will be subject to prior review by the Association. In order to allow NTPC to exercise its option right under supply contracts for the First Singrauli project, which were also in accordance with Bank/IDA guidelines, retroactive financing up to US$15 million for payments made after August 1, 1979 for repeat orders for the two 200 MW turbo-generator units and auxiliary equipment, including 6.6 kV switchgears, control and instrumentation system and data acquisition systems, is proposed in view of substantial savings in project cost. Project Implementation 46. NTPC will implement the proposed project as part of its ongoing Singrauli power development. NTPC is managed by a Board of Directors, which presently consists of seven members, two of whom are full time. A competent and experienced Chairman and Managing Director was appointed in early 1976 and NTPC has made good progress in building up its organization and the manpower since then. As a new and growing organization, NTPC places special importance on the training of engineers, supervisors and operating staff as well as managerial staff, and is implementing an acceptable training program which is now concentrating on pre-operational spheres of activity such as planning, design and construction. 47. A master plan for project implementation has been prepared by NTPC. Preparatory civil works have already commenced for this second phase at the plant site. Much of the detailed engineering and design work carried out for  - 1 7 - the ongoing first stage of the Singrauli thermal power development under Credit 685-IN is applicable to the proposed project. Since the manufacture and instal- lation of 500 MW turbo-generator sets is a new development for NTPC, it has selected consultants to assist in the design, the preparation of specifications and bidding de ;ments, and the evaluation of bids for the two 500 MW units. Employment of engineering consultants for the 500 MW units is a condition of effectiveness (Section 2.02 of Project Agreement and Section 5.01(b) of Development Credit Agreement). 48. NTPC has also developed a comprehensive project management and information system. In view of the importance of efficient project coordina- tion and control to timely and successful construction of the plant and of the high cost of delay in project implementation, NTPC has agreed to appoint consultants with broad experience in major construction programs of this nature. NTPC has undertaken to appoint such consultants by October 15, 1980 (Sections 2.02 of Project Agreement). 49. Large reserves of coal are available at the Singrauli coal field and no problems are foreseen with regard to coal availability. The Government will ensure adequate coal supplies for the project (Section 3.04 of Development Credit Agreement). Cooling water arrangements are adequate. 50. Adequate measures would be taken to minimize potential adverse ecological effects of the project, including stack emissions, heat dissipation and ash disposal. The approval of the National Committee on Environmental Planning and Coordination has been obtained, and appropriate occupational safety standards would be strictly enforced (Section 2.09 of Project Agreement). NTPC Finances 51. NTPC would begin to earn revenues in 1981/82 when commissioning of the first 200 MW generating unit under the First Singrauli project (Credit 685-IN) is scheduled. As the generating capacity increases, NTPC's annual revenue is expected to increase at a faster rate than its operating expenses and produce rates of return on the capital base rising gradually to reach 9-1/2% by 1988/89 and 11% by 1990/91. By 1986/87 when scheduled implementa- tion of the proposed project is completed, NTPC will have constructed and commissioned generating capacity of 4,300 MW (fourteen 200 MW generating units and three 500 MW units, including those of the proposed project, as well as about 7,000 km of associated 400 kV transmission). In accordance with the provisions of the Companies Act, the Government would provide funds so that NTPC's debt/equity ratio would not exceed 1:1. NTPC's initial authorized share capital of Rs 1,250 million (US$149 million) was increased in May 1979 to Rs 3,000 million (US$357 million). Further progressive increases of issued share capital are planned during the construction period, reaching about Rs 22,000 million (US$2,620 million) by 1983/84. NTPC would inform the Association prior to submission to its annual meeting of any proposal for modification of existing limitations on NTPC's borrowing powers (Section 3.04 of Project Agree- ment). The proceeds of the proposed credit will be onlent by GOI to NTPC and conclusion of a subsidiary loan agreement satisfactory to the Association  - 18 - is a condition of effectiveness (Section 5.01(b) of Development Credit Agree- ment). GOI loans would be repayable by NTPC in 20 years, including periods of grace of five years, with interest at the rate of 10-1/4% per annum. This is the standard rate at which GOI lends to public sector enterprises. The ex- change risk will be borne by the Government. Inflation in India between 1974/75 and 1978/79 averaged only 1.5% per annum. With the sharp increase in oil prices during 1979 coinciding with a severe drought, prices spurted by almost 15% between April and December 1979 and are anticipated to increase another 10% during 1980/81. Given past GOI determination and success in con- taining inflation, and the likelihood of a strong agricultural recovery and improved supply of industrial inputs, the rate of price increase over the project period is expected to average somewhat below 7% per annum. 52. NTPC has agreed to achieve in 1988/89, and maintain thereafter, a rate of return of not less than 9-1/2% on the cost of the average net fixed assets in service, and to set tariffs from the time of commissioning of its first 200 MW generating unit at Singrauli at levels not lower than those esti- mated to be required to meet this target (Section 4.03 of Project Agreement). This results in lower returns in the earlier years, but in view of the high initial capital investment in the early stages of NTPC's power development and the time involved until thermal generating units reach their full output, this approach to setting the tariff is appropriate. 53. NTPC's forecast average bulk supply tariff for the sale of power is estimated at about 29 paise per kWh (US43.5/kWh), excluding fuel surcharge. Internal cash generated by NTPC would begin to cover annual debt service and working capital increases from 1983/84. Any shortfall in funds prior to that year would be financed by capital subscription from GOI. 54. Under the three previous projects, NTPC undertook to sell the out- put of power under bulk supply contracts satisfactory to the Association. NTPC has agreed to provide a similar undertaking under the proposed project (Section 2.10 of Project Agreement). GOI has obtained from the recipient SEBs in the Northern Region their agreement to purchase not less than 85% of the output from the Singrauli station. NTPC prepared a preliminary draft bulk supply contract for its sale of power to the recipient SEBs. The draft out- lines the manner in which power would be distributed to individual SEBs in the region through the Regional load dispatch centers, the commercial and financial arrangements for the sale of NTPC's power, etc. The draft is currently being reviewed by GOI. By the time the first Singrauli unit is commissioned in early 1982, bulk tariff contracts satisfactory to the Association would be worked out. The important consideration is to ensure that determination of the appropriate level of tariffs is consistent with the financial viability of NTPC and with broader economic considerations. Financial Performance of SEBs 55. Historically, the financial position of the SEBs has been weak, mainly because of the inadequate tariff levels in relation to costs, and has been the subject of continuing dialogue between GOI and the Association. The Bank Group has sought, under the previous power transmission loan and credits, that the beneficiary SEBs will improve their performance, and SEBs  - 19 - were to work towards a rate of return target of 9-1/2%. The two ongoing rural electrification projects (Credits 572-IN and 911-IN) further promoted improvement in rates of return of SEBs through required subsidization of rural electrification losses by State Governments. While actual performance has varied among SEBs, the overall trend showed an improvement through 1976/77, when seven out of the sixteen major SEBs reached the target rate of return, compared with only four in the previous year, 1975/76. A further two reached their targets in 1977/78 with the help of rural electrification subsidies from their State Governments. Uttar Pradesh SEB is expected to achieve the agreed rate of return in 1979/80. Returns generally decreased in 1977/78 and 1978/79, however, due to the adverse financial impact of forced plant outages, the natural calamities of flooding and drought, increased purchases of relatively more expensive thermal power and disruptions in coal mining industry and in the transport sector, leaving ten out of the sixteen SEBs unable to reach the agreed rate of return. The situation faced by some hard-hit SEBs did not constitute "normal circumstances", and it can be justifiably argued that the achievement of the 9-1/2% could not be realistically expected. 56. Plans for the restoration of acceptable rates of return were dis- cussed during appraisal with the Northern Region SEBs and the Delhi Electri- city Supply Undertaking, and short-term action plans for restoring in the current fiscal year rates of return to at least 9-1/2% were found acceptable. The plans are now under implementation. They consist of: tariff increases ranging from 10% to 14%, rationalization of manpower requirements, improvement of generating efficiency, reduction of line losses, and improved billing and collection procedures. In the case of Haryana, action plans include the commencement of subsidization of rural electrification losses by the State Government. By implementing such action plans, the SEBs in the Northern Region have reached a 9-1/2% rate of return in 1979/80. Project Justification and Risks 57. The proposed project is the least-cost solution for easing the acute power shortages in the Northern Region within the shortest possible time. Compared to the practical alternative of smaller coal-based stations that would be installed by individual SEBs in the absence of the project, the present value of the cost stream of the proposed project is lowest at any discount rate. The economic rate of return of the project, using observed individual willingness to pay for continuous power supply, together with tariffs for non-commercial customers, as a proxy for economic benefits, including some quantifiable consumers' surplus, is 13%. This must be regarded as well below the true economic rate of return on the proposed expansion of power generation capacity since additional benefits, which are expected from project implementation but whose quantification is difficult--e.g., industrial, agricultural and commercial output maintained by the project's effect of reducing shortages--are not included. 58. Project risks are no greater than can normally be expected with operations of this type. The principal risk would be the possibility of slippage which could give rise to delays in scheduled commissioning of plant. The progress of project implementation will be closely monitored during  - 20 - engineering and construction and the use of experienced consultants would help minimize delays in project implementation. The fact that a number of 200 MW units and one 500 MW unit will have been in operation in India before the project is commissioned will reduce the possibility of initial operational difficulties during the start-up and the early stage of operations. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Asso- ciation, the draft Project Agreement between the Association and NTPC and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the IDA Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. Execution of a Subsidiary Loan Agreement between India and NTPC and appointment of engineering consultants for the design and preparation of technical specifications of 500 MW units have been made additional conditions of effectiveness of the Credit (Section 5.01(a) and (b) of Development Credit Agreement). 61. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President May 1, 1980 By Ernest Stern  ANNEX I IDIA - SOCIL INICATORS DATA SET Page 1 of 5 RhRMCE GROUPS (ADfJUSTED AyUGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ * 1.) - AMST RECENT SE NEITE 'a TOTAL 387.6 SANE SAME IMI ERGEE AGUCULTURAL 1818.3 OST RECET OROGRAPC INCOME INCOE 190 lb 1970 A ESTIATE /b REGION /c GROUP Ld GROUP A GNP PER CAPITA (USs) 60.0 90.0 180.0 191.1 209.6 467.5 EMERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 142.0 181.0 218.0 69.1 83.9 262.1 POPUATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPATION, NC-YEAR (MILLIONS) 434.9 547.6 631.7Lf UAN POPMLATION (PECEST or TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 20.7 13.2 16.2 24.6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATIOR IN TEAR 2000 (ILLIONS) 973.0 STATIOSARY POPULATION (MLLIONS) 1643.0 TEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACIED 2150 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. Em. 132.0 167.0 192.0 86.6 49.4 43.3 PER SQ. 136. AGRICULTURAL LAND 247.0 308.0 347.0 330.2 Z52.0 149.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PRCENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.8 42.5 42.0 44.3 43.1 45.2 15-64 YS. 55.7 54.6 55.0 52.4 53.2 51.9 65 RS. AND ABOVE 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 POPULATION GROIWEJ RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL L.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2.5 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.3 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER TOUSAND) 43.0 40.0 35.0 44.4 42.4 39.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PEt TOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0 16.4 15.9 11.7 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 FAMILY PLANNING AGCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 4518.0 3SUS (PERCENT OF MARIED wO) .. 12.0 16.9 7.9 12.2 13.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 100.0 102.0 101.0 99.4 98.2 99.6 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OP CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 93.0 93.3 94.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 56.1 52.1 54.3 OF WHICH ANIML AND PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 10.4 L3.6 17.4 CHILD (AGES 1-4) NQOTALITY RATE 28.0 22.0 18.0 19.2 18.5 11.' HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT SIRTEN (EAS) 43.0 48.0 51.0 49.1 49.3 54.7 INFA.YT MORTALITY RATE (PER TROUSAND) .. 134.0 .. .. 105.4 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OP POPULATION) TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0 31.5 26.3 34.4 URBAN ,, 60.0 83.0 63.9 58.5 57.9 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 15.8 21.2 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.0 40.8 URBAN .. 85.0 87.0 66.8 65.1 71.3 &URAL .. 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 27.7 POPULATION PIB PHYSICIAN 5800.O0h 4890.0 3135.0 7107.9 11396.4 6799.4 POPULATION PE NURSING PERSON 9630.Ojh 5220.0 6320.0 12064.0 5552.4 1522.1 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590.OLi 2020.0 1231.0 2738.4 1417.1 726.5 URBAN . . .. .. 197.3 272.7 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2445.9 1404.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 24.8 27.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD -OTAL 5.2 .. 5.2 .. 5.3 5.4 RRBAN 5.2 .. 4.8 .. 4.9 5.1 RURAL 5.2 .. 5.3 .. 5.4 5.5 AVERAGE NUMIBl OF PERSONS PER ROOM CTAL 2.6 2.3 .. dRSAN .. .. .. IURAL .. .. .. ACCESS 70 _ECTR'CITY (PERCENT OF D3'E' LZNGS; TOTAL .. . . .. 22.5 S.1 113A .. .. . .. 17.8 5.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. .. 9.9  ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 SNDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHUT nUIA PIFRZNCE GROUPS (ADJUST&DIAl" S - NiDST xciT ESTEM AMHZ SANET MET HIM&E NOT RCENT nO0LAIC IC 0O11 INCOME 160 Lb 1970 /b ZSTSmAT lb ISC0GION 1 GROUP Id GROUP /a EDUCATION ALUlWo En0UlxrI RATIOS nIAR: TOTAL 61.0 72.0 79.0 59.5 63.3 82.7 MALK 10.0 57.0 94.0 74.9 79.1 67.3 ?Rx 40.0 35.0 63.0 43.7 48.4 75.8 SECONDARYt TOTAL 20.0 29.0 26.0 19.5 16.7 21.4 muZ 30.0 39.0 38.0 27.6 22.1 33.0 PuEAI 10.0 17.0 16.0 10.0 10.2 1i.3 VOCATIONAL ENL. (Z Of SICQDUS) 8.0 6.0 .. 1.3 5.6 9.8 PUYPL-TEACM RATIO EIDM Y 29.0 40.0 42.0 42.2 41.0 34.1 SECOIIDARY 16.0 17.0 .. .. 21,7 23.4 AQ1LT LITZRACY RATE (PWEZ) 26.0 33.0 36.0 25.5 31.2 54.0 CONSU!TION- PIRSSEN0 CARS PE THOUSAND POPULATION 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.8 9.3 RADIO RECEIVSRS PMR THOUHA POPULATION 5.0 21.0 24.0 15.5 27.2 76.9 TV UCEIVERS m THOUSAND POPULATION ,. 0.1 0. 2.4 13.5 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GEIUAL INTERMST") CIRCULATION PCI INOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.0 6.2 5.3 18.3 CINMEA ANUAL ATTENDANCI PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.6 *- 1.1 2.5 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LAaOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 18670.0 226670.0 261000.0/k FEPALE (PERCENT) 31.3 32.6 32.2 21.4 24.8 29.2 AGRICULTURE (PE&CENT) 73.0 73.0 73.0 66.3 69.4 62.7 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.6 10.0 11.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.0 40.2 39.2 35.8 36.9 37.1 MALE 57.1 52.3 51.3 52.3 52.4 48.8 FEMALE 27.9 27.1 26.2 15.7 18.0 20.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATtO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OP PRIVATE INCQIZ RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OP aOUSZHOLDS 26.7 26.3/1 .. .. ,. 15.2 RICHEST 20 PERCENT Of ROUSZHOLDS 51.7 48. 971 * * 46. 2 LOWEST 20 PERCENT oP HOUSZROLDS 4.1 6.7/7 .. .. .. 6.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OP HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.27 .. .. .. 16.3 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 63.0 86.5 99.2 241.3 RURAL .. .. 73.0 74.2 78.9 136.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCONE LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. .. 91.9 179.7 RURAL .. .. 50.0 50.4 54.8 103.7 ESTIMATED POPULATION BEL0W ABSOLUTE POVERTY SNCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 47.0 44.3 44.1 24.8 RURAL .. .. 52.0 52.4 53.9 37.5 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The adjusced group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, daca for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. 'c Souch Asia !d Low Income (S280 or less per capita 1976); /e Lower Middle Income (S281-550 per capita, 1976); 'f ;978 mid-vear population is estimated at 640.4 ojilion; aj 1951-60; h 1962; 1958; 7j 1967; /k 1978 mid-year laber force is estimaced at 261 =illion; /1 1964-t5. Mast Recent Escimate of tiNP per capita is for 1978. August, 1979  ANNEX I MEP'NITIOKEO ST 3XAL ThICATOES Page 3 of 5 Notes: Although the dat.ar.e drams fro sources gene.rally judged the most suthorittive end reliabl, it shoud also he noted that thoy cap not be interna- tiosal comparble bec aus of the lank of ntsndardled definitiona and conoepta ued by different outinin onllentisg the data. Tie data as-c, oooetheiss, usful to desoribe orders of magoitude,Iindicate treads, sod characterize certais major differe-e betwe- ountries. Theadjste grup vorgesfor each indicator aro pvoplatinn-oighted geomtric mesas, eoeldiag the eotrem cane: of the indicator and the -ct opula1ted ocutr inonb gou. Cscto lak of data, group avrages of all lodictore for Capital Surpios Oil Obportr- and of tdacator of icoen to Water nod bo-ets Ddspoonl, Honuhig, Ionncve intribution sad Poverty foe other coutry grups are populatios-seighted genastrin menew: cithout enien f tie entrouc -ao- and the mont pultd coutry. Sincet the cov rag f coutries ng the iniators ded .s avilability of data and is nob unifora. -stino nct be c-ercined is relting verge of weidctrt nte. These avraesn m-ety uaef. as approiamations of ezpcted" values when conpartg the ca-ue of one is.dlator at a time son the.country and refrenceo groups. IAND AREA (thousan.d eqm. .) Aconno to loeaIo.a Coecea o.onnDai t1i urban and -ii .1Tta srface area. -pricing land urea and inland water.-Nme fpol toa,urba ,and rural IeIe by -nreta diopon.. a:, Agricult-rl - Mot recent e-timate of agricultural area naed teqempraril percen.tage: of their reepecti-e populabin.- Enoreta diapo..al ocy tocbude or permaently for -cps, peature:, maket and kitehea garden or to the colnlnad disposal, eith or sithoun troatneot, of huma ""-rta lIe falow and wseatrby eate-b n..e .ystema or thenc of pit pricic- and rualev GNP PER CAPITA (tS$) - liP por capta. cti-ies at cureet aaket prics iisstdcatinnprPwiin- ouaindndd ye.e fpacitgpyimn calculated by sam c-o-eoin method am World Bkh Atla:, (1976-78 haul); tulftd inamdical scuiat nicer- by leve.' i96t, 1970,-ad 1975 data. Popeulationo per Narciog Person - Poplitico divided by o.mior of pc-aticiog nail DEat C UiMPTION PEP CAPITA - Anouni o-eaption of nomrci.1 energ and fosale graduateeros pratical acruen,adncontaio - (cal nd lgoi:,, etrloum nauralgH_ adhydr o-solear an e-PpltonprHoia o - total, urban, an-drb- Population (total, urban, thermal 4electricity) in kilograam of coal equi-slet per capita; i96o and -rura) diclded by their rep-oti-e nmber of hoopita1 boda acailblo t 1970, and 1976 data, Public and pricate goneral and aproaliced hootpita1 nod c-thbiiitat_oonec Konpitale ace entabii=nent peraseetly etaffed by at Ioot no ciphyicIa PPULA,TIONs AN 51 VITAL STATISTIC S Eatablishaentn provIdIng principally cootodia1 rae or not includod. cr.al TtlPratiao. sad-tear(mdlli-n) - in cf July 1; 1960, 1970, and honpitals, hbeevr, include health and ondica1 cen ter not pernnotly etaffid 197 dta by a phycinian (but by a melci- -siatant, nura, aidoif, etc.) oioh offer trianPopuation(perent f toa)-Patio of urban to total popointion; in-patienta--odati- and proide a Iiaitd c-ann of medical fac:latiea. differn t defiitio of uran a -co la aifeet ...mparbility of data Ada piesnr iHoscitel Bed - Total onute of adaoione- to o diuohbac-g fc-on among countries; i960, 1971, and i975 data. hoopitalo divided by the nubec- of bc-do. Poulation Projection:, Ponc.ision in near 2110 - Crent pnpulstioo projectinoc ar bno no. d iOUSING 1975 total population byaez and -e and their mortality and fertiiity Aeae lice of Sounehcid (prosprhueod)-ttl n ,ad rura - rates Projection parwtero for nortality rates comprise of three A onha cnista of ac-u f indTl =d1al Ao lon tir,ing quarter, an -ela ..Asaig Libfe copentacy so birth increaing with country-n their nab: ec1l. n boarde r Lodgeur may or cay not to _cobucd to thc per capita Ioccar I-el, and Conale life eopectwcy stbilisiag at household for attiotioal -purpcen 775yenr-. Thc parsntc-ro Ccc fertility rate aloe have thc-ee leein AcoagnnbrofpeennPerro - total urban, and rura - Ave-rmeou r aco,ala dcI-olin,i fertliity ac-rrdi,g In Income level and peact opc-noPc--on in all urban, and coa coidcnetoo ati- fandly nlsnntg perfcr-ne. E-hbroutc-r in then susinsed nee of th.ee -cpecicely. oclincoclde cu-p=raec .t.t... an ocr,io at nine comlotca f otality and fertility trends for projection A...s. to Electricity (Percet of dae-linu total, urban, sod rurl-I Ccc Ppurpse. ceniaeoftio..al doe1ilaga aith electricity in licig quarters an por-etngr ~ Itatinosr popltion - iIn,a tatiosary Ppoplition thereis on gr-cth total, urban, and -urai doelliag respc~ti-ely. niace the bithcatc in qu tn the death rate, and ala the age e1-trunu resiala .onotant. This is achieve oly after fectiiity raten EDUJCdTION debc othe repfnentt ivel f uit cet reproductio cate, when Adjut&d In-lset Satins eachigeceratioso oanrolrstofeocl. Tin tatin-ar pope- Pcinnr anhoni - total main and fease G ros. totl nale and fenaieoroi-1 Jeoms sine- ac.etimated on tie tuic of the projected characte-bihtos set of all agen at the prieary leve1a porneotagec of ..espetivo prisary of the Ppopution in the year 1100), and the rate of deciine of fertility nhool-ege opulations; orc-aliy inclu~des thild-e sgrd 6-li yea- but rote tc replacemet level, adjusted for differet len,gthc of pc-m,ry ed-tontu;ioroutrccith itea stationary popultion is c-cached - Tie pear les ataticoa.ry population uniorroa.l oduatios onrolloet as eooed 100 pencot s,inc -oe pupilo nice has been -ehed. ac-c hbno o.r shor tbeofficial school age. Ppoplation Inanity b.oundary school - total, oie and female - Coaputednoa-c --cu,ory Per so. ha. Misd-c-nn population -e atuar kilometer (ill hectares) of education -otic-es atlat fu er f aPprod ,ciry inot-utaio- total arap-cideo eea ontinoal, oreoaho triin dntrcioo Cc ppi Per an . agricultural land - Computed un nb-e for agricltc-li land usualy of 12 to 17 year:, of age; o-renpondence c-n-c are groe--ly only. occluded An49i9e St-utorclypos-nt - Childc-re (0-1b yearo), curbing-age loainld rlnot(ccn fccodn)-Vuooa iciuiom-A 5;4 yeas,,6nod retir-ed79 year and over) no percentag- of edd-year t.ohebocl, indutrii, oriother p.g-nro chich dc-rte indopendcntlyors pouaien i96, 1970, and 1977 data. dcpart-ets of sonoodary istitutiuso. fppln.tioa Ic-neth tottal .A-.Anua ornth eaten of total sid- tel-tear er ratio - primar and se....dan- tua tude-to -oodi year Poplaina o 1~950h, ,9bI, nd 1970-77. primay and s-codry 1-clnb dicided by nunico of.teacher inin n 0ccil-no Population iroth Pte ) one-et) - urba A- Anul genth rat.. of urban pandiog 1o1 popultino f o 15-hI,191 - 711, and 19711-75. Adult Litennop rate (percet) - Lite-oto dultn (a1 no c-c-ead ant a-tic) a CrueBieth Rate c-c t Aco ) - -Anua live births~ per thcuoand of aid- aprntg fttlautpplto gd1 rr n c-- yea population;~ 1G0 1971, and 1077 data. ly96._Da5tha5tp(prthoaoand( - Aoseu.1 unatho per thou-und C old-year CONiIUMpTr11N popolhlth;160,71917ihd1977 data. Paannngor C-v (cer th-uand pupulatiun) - Paonogc-c c-r -upriceoioc Grnco Seroduotics hate-Average nuber of da-ght-e cu ill car neating less than night pn-nun; ecolud.o abuanno, houroe and niloIt in her normal -ependutive period if she -nperi-nen Pr:cont age- cehiclo.. specifico fertility robes; usually fire-year seragea ending is 196,0, Onb evora(e huad poultion) - All typo o f --oi-rc fc- radio 1970, and 1971. ~~~~~broadeacts to general pulc e hocn cC. pui-to; e"nolue nhrne Panily Planiog - Acet-itc, Anonul (thousand:, A-.Anua sunhr of -ceice-oonoan-trina and in your. nh.. cego't trotin of radoctosct acceptora of birth-control device under nopine of national foily effect; data for c-onet ye- sup nut be cu-pa-slr nor ac- t -ciobies PlnIn progran. oholinhod iio-nisg. PFmil Plning - Ucer j ypeE-i.f sarn nn)- Per...ntago of as-rod TV Ocieo(o thousad aplatio-) - TbVei-r for br-odoat t, gonerci came ochild-heard l5T79 as bh uc irth-nootrn1 devices public per thcusad populatIon; ooludno unitcoe-d TV r-eoicr- to outi- to all married e-eninasun agr group. and in yer- abe: regict-atiun of TV ceta satinsffnct. Seooacr Crcuatin (er thujfr.. ndpu~lts92o - lSnac thetcrc-i-ulte FOOD AnE NtiITION ofLal eea nera coppr,d-ined n a p-rod-nol pblirstion Iade.ouf mdP utu~c Capita ~L969-7i,1llO) - Indec of per capita deoo rmrl"ornriggnrlcc. C ncciee ob dully annualprouto of all fond onodHities Peodant ina eulde ed ant if it appenrs at lea..d four bla- a neck. fn- a d to n oleodar yea tact:. Cueadlties over primary goads Ci-ee Annual Attendanc Per Capita er lear-honed on the -ant- c tiobsto (eg.ega-one i-oanad of sugar whih areedibie and cuotin nutriet eald during the year,loudn sdoiaatdcr-ccnesnd rin n..cffee_an boa a r eclde). Aggengate preduti.n of -sh -ntnry -nit. is bad on. d si_laeag edoepc-ic .eights. Per capita suppl of calore (oe-n't of resuirenests) - Compoted fro IABOS FIRCE eso rgy equivalent of oet fond supp ies aciaini country per capita Totai labor Poc-n ( thonoada-d - .P ..nic-11y active porsoa, 1n-ludiog c-eed per day. A-iiable sopplie conpc-ic domes.tic production, import:,.. lesIecn.an unaine but nc-lding h-ue-co, son dc-pt0, etc Infla~it, c s_pnts, and changes in soodk. Not supplioc -1cide aninal fend, sneds, in -aiou -otor-e nc-c-ct -apr-bls.. quantities ...ed in fond pr--aing, and lo.... in distribtut-o Pequir- Pmi(sa- Peai 1sbo- Cforco as psc-cstsge cC ntal. lsboc force. nests ce- setimatod by PAl banod os phyoilougi-l needs o nrmal AStrj ..ct~) - Labo r Cc-c s s-n , forr-ty, bhting and un ticity and bealth onsidering c-ir-nameta temperature, body ceighte, riehl.ig as percentage of tunai labor force aeand sec dictributione of pepulation, and a1l.ioig it Percent fee Cadustry (poe..eat) - Labar force is Ing-otroic, ofuctu-ing enod catss bosohold level . electnbicitp, ater and .a operstage of tubal labor f.ore. Pvr -psit, -upply of rc-tbin (cran per As)- Protco contest of per Patcpainhae( eret) - total male, and fobal - Partip bins cc Oapnt octsuppy offoodper sp. on npply of food is dofinod se ac-s-ic pc-sb, arec-puted as ot.,7 ml, nod ConIelbor Cn-con r aboveR.Ocquirme.ets for all coutrie esctbliohed by USEDA p-uide foe eotage` of total, male and female pnpulatios of all agec respectively; slnims al11cance of 601 gram: of tubal protein per day and 0 grsm of 1960, 1970, and 1971 data. These -r IlO,a psrti-,patin rates reflecting anima and poise pc-nonis, of ohich 1I gram ah-Id heaimal prtcitei. ago- ..... s-tenbre of tho population, and inng tine tred. A fesubimt-ts Thesme obanHardo arc lose.r than tbc- of 75 gram of total protein and are f- runtioa ... cone 2I ge_m of anIma protesin aeanavrge forc the corld, proposed by PAO gsoi Deensdans Rto-Plmtiof popostios under i and 65 and -cr to in the Tbird Worid Pood So-r.ep, he_abo foce s ge gnp of -64 yearn. Peecr is S-i tei _uoefo nea n 0c Protein eupply of fond deec-d fo anaaeadpeeingmser dyp. SNf1 Dt1 5TIXTIIN Child (ages -)MraiyRae(e husd - Ascrcs deaths por thousand eretgof Private income bothp iscshad bind) - Poeiced by c-Iies.t is ags gecup 1-4 years, t.ochildren in thi ag. ru;for most de-e1- paremat, richeeb2 P. pecent, poret 11percet, and ponr-t to perne.. oping sstris Hants derived from life tabl:es, r.p of ho...ehold., HEAhLTE POVEprY TARGET GROUPS life Enpecac at Bi,rth DYe1re -A Average number of yearn of life Estimated Absolute Poverty Incoc level (liS erIr napibts). - rba sd rural - re Mmaiiga irth 197 -97,ad 1977. dots. Absolte povrty incom leve is that incunl-e ib onnila isf.at Mortality Sate (per th-unad) - Anecu1 deaths of infanto under one nutritlally adequate diet plus essential nun-food rqieet isst yerof age per thousand lice hirtb.. affordable. Accesa to Safe Wae pecn of psltino - tntal urban. andrurl - Estimated Reitive Poverty Incom Leve (nil per capita) - urban and rura - Number of people (tctn1, urban, and rrl oi rasnal aces to Sural relative pocerty incom leue in one-third of acerage per capita cae uster supply (iaciuden treated sufac -tatre or untreated hut poreona nc_s of the ununtry. Ictn -eel in deri-d Cc-unthe rural leve unotamisated oser suc .e that Cc-n. prte-ted borehole, springs, cith sdj-t-eat for higher cet of liotag in nc-ia ares:,. and sanitary cells) a pecnaeof their rep-tice populaticas. Is Sotinatedppuain nb bouoPvryIcmElcl(soo(-uOnad aurban area a public fcuntainor cc tadpoot located nout more thanrra Percent of pouatc (u.rban ad rural)' nb are hnuepc 200 meters from a boee as be considred as bein aithcnr..a...able acesof that house. In rural arene reasonable ancasesld imply that the houcecife ce meco cIo the bo-ahold do not have b spend aFvcIc and lucil lab Pt iio dIsproportionate part .if the day is Ietchiag the familyc. saber needs Eces..eic Analysis and P-je-ti-s Dcprt-.tst August 1979  ANNEX I rCcm am r D Page 4 of 5 */ go in cgirA is 1977: W 150 b/ nuOF/ri" Gg06 IUTIOUL IRD=C IF 1977/78 L 3 o o r. ant .rinea 1960/61-196/45 .l95/lIM2tZ2 197/7-L76 GNP at lIrkat ricas 101.47 100.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 Gros Downstic Lel em t 21.65 21.3 Gross National saving 22.77 22.4 Current Account Balance d/ 1.04 1.0 Resource Salance d/ - 0.31 - 0.3 OIS? VLA8OR UORCK AIS P3gE = IIN 1971 ...vLaKLF cr rce .. mr . U1o 2 ls.. 2..L _ 2 of atiaml Averaa. A4riculture 24.5 46.6 130.0 72.1 IS 6 industry 11.8 22.3 20.2 11.2 502 1" Services 16.3 3.i1 302 16.7 MI Total/average 52.6 100.0 l10.4 100.0 292 Genral Goaer st Ctrl emet Rs 31n-l4175-i/t"ln/7 in1n Current Laceipts 164.42 18.9 18.2 95.62 11.0 10.5 Current Ipanditures 157.29 18.1 16.5 22710. la Currant Surplus/Deficit 7.13 0.8 1.6 0.35 M.e. 0.6 Capital 3xenditur.s f/ 62.58 7.2 7.0 43.31 5.0 5.0 External Assistace (not) A/ 9.82 1.1 1.6 9.82 1.1 1.6 PHin CG3DIT AID PlE 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 19m/n 197lsnl 78 mtor 1977 t Jer 1vn (as billion ontesandiag at a of period) money end Quasi 1mey 121.4 196.4 220.3 254.7 306.9 365.1 334.8 395.S bank Cradit to Govermnt (net) 52.6 87.3 95.3 101.1 110.2 129.7 119.3 139.5 Bank Crodit to Ce_rcial Sector 64.6 107.0 126.7 153.9 185.1 210.0 195.3 223.5 (percentage or Index imlers) JlnruJ I7u.r. 1979 Money and Quasi 1on*y as Z of CaI 30.1 33.5 31.5 34.5 36.8 41.9 Wholafa1a Price Index (1970/71 * 100) 100.0 139.7 174.9 173.0 176.6 l85.8 1U4.5 164.6 Annual percentage chanes in. Wholesale Price Index 7.7 20.2 25.2 - 1.1 2.1 5.2 3.2 0.1 lank Credit to Governmant (net) 10.8 12.3 9.2 6.1 9.0 17.7 13.4 16.9 lank Credit to Corcial Sector 19.4 22.6 18.4 21.5 20.3 13.5 16.6 14.4 hi The per capita GIP aetiate is at mrket priese calculated by the conversieon techniq asd in to World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the avrag exchange rate prevailing durin 2e period covered. b/ Quick zatimatas. c/ Computed from trend line of 1Q at factor cost series, including one observation before first ynr end one obervation after lost year of listed period. d/ world Bank estimtes; not n ecsarily consistent with official National Account Itatistiec. hi/ Trnafers between Centre and States have boen netted out. f/ All loans and advances to third parties have been netted out. A/ External grants and loans, less principal repaymnts, as recorded in the Central budget.  ANNEX I Page 5 of 5 BALANCE OF PAYHENTS 1975/76 1976/77 1977D78 1978/79 AISZ EXP RTS (AVERAGE 1975/76 - 1977/78) (Us$ million) US$ lan. -%S. Exports of Goods 4,672 5,753 6,276 6,800 Engineering Goods 610 11 Imports of Goods -6,449 -5,928 -7,237 -8,400 Tea 417 7 Trade Balance -1,777 - 175 - 961 -1,600 Geua 377 7 NFS (net) 310 360 650 700 Clothing 331 6 Leather and Leather Resource Balance -1.467 185 - 311 - 900 Products 278 5 i/ .Jute Manufactures 267 5 Interest Payments (net) - 216 - 180 - 50 - Iron Ore 265 5 Other Factor Payments (net) - - - - Cotton Textiles 248 4 Net Transfers j/ 470 730 1,400 1,300 Sugar 244 4 Others 2,530 45 Balance on Current Account -1.213 735 1.039 400 Total 5.567 100 Official Aid Disburs Omnts 2,341 1,953 1,628 1,805 EXTERNAL DEBT ARCH 31. 1978 -, Asortization - 531 - 560 - 645 - 725 US$ billion Transactions with IMF 242 - 337 - 330 - 158 Outstanding a*4 Disbursed 14.8 All Other Items - 45 - 216 384 205 Undisbursed 4.3 Outstanding, including Increase in Reserves (-) - 794 -1,575 -2,076 -1,527 Undisborsed 19.1 Gross Reserves (end year) 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,350 h/l/ Net Reserves (end year) k/ 1,365 3,276 5,668 7,350 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1977/78 15.0 percent Fuel and Related Materials IBRD/IDA LENDINE. DECEMBER 31. 1978 Imports 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 us$ million of which: Petroleum 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 I Exports 43 37 33 n.a. Outstand.1, .ud Disbursed 613 3,864 of which: Petroleum 22 21 18 n. . Undisbursed 615 1,992 outstanding, including / Undisbursed 1,228 5,856 RATE OF EXCHANGE June 1966 to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 - Rs 7.5 Rs 1.00 - US$0.133333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 US$1.00 - Rs 7.27927 Rs 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1978 US$1.00 - Rs 8.188 US$1.00 - Rs 0.122 h/ Estimated. i/ Figures given cover all investment income (net). Major payments are interest on foreign loans and charges paid to IMF, and major receipt is interest earned on foreign assets. j/ Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is - included within official aid disbursements. k/ Excludes net use of IMF credit. 1/ Amortization and interest payments on foreign loans as a percentage of merchandise exports. m/ Excludes exchange adjustment, but includes US$ 22 million due to third parties.  ANNEX II Page 1 of 17 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of February 29, 1980) US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 41 Loans/ 1,163.2 60 Credits fully disbursed 3,624.6 312-IN 1972 India Population -- 21.2 .68 342-IN 1972 India Education -- 12.0 5.92 356-IN 1973 India IDBI I -- 25.0 8.44 378-IN 1973 India Karnataka Agricultural Markets -- 8.0 4.31 390-IN 1973 India Bombay Water Supply I -- 55.0 7.22 456-IN 1974 India HP Apple Processing & Marketing -- 13.0 7.66 481-IN 1974 India Trombay IV Fertilizer -- 50.0 .44 1011-IN 1974 India Chambal (Rajasthan) CAD 52.0 -- 22.61 482-IN 1974 India Karnataka Dairy -- 30.0 21.55 502-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Canal CAD -- 83.0 36.15 520-IN 1974 India Sindri Fertilizer -- 91.0 1.04 521-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Dairy -- 27.7 15.89 522-IN 1974 India Madhya Pradesh Dairy -- 16.4 6.34 526-IN 1975 India Drought Prone Areas -- 35.0 11.33 1079-IN 1975 IFFCO IFFCO Fertilizer 109.0 -- 10.75 1097-IN 1975 ICICI Industry DFC XI 95.6 -- 4.17 532-IN 1975 India Godavari Barrage Irrigation -- 45.0 10.58 541-IN 1975 India West Bengal Agric. Development -- 34.0 13.44 562-IN 1975 India Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) CAD -- 24.0 7.70 572-IN 1975 India Rural Electrification I -- 57.0 12.89 585-IN 1975 India Uttar Pradesh Water Supply -- 40.0 24.24 598-IN 1975 India Fertilizer Industry -- 105.0 59.90 604-IN 1976 India Power Transmission IV -- 150.0 84.90  ANNEX II Page 1 of 17 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of February 29, 1980) US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 41 Loans/ 1,163.2 60 Credits fully disbursed 3,624.6 312-IN 1972 India Population -- 21.2 .68 342-IN 1972 India Education -- 12.0 5.92 356-IN 1973 India IDBI I - 25.0 8.44 378-IN 1973 India Karnataka Agricultural Markets -- 8.0 4.31 390-IN 1973 India Bombay Water Supply I -- 55.0 7.22 456-IN 1974 India HP Apple Processing & Marketing -- 13.0 7.66 481-IN 1974 India Trombay IV Fertilizer -- 50.0 .44 1011-IN 1974 India Chambal (Rajasthan) CAD 52.0 - 22.61 482-IN 1974 India Karnataka Dairy -- 30.0 21.55 502-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Canal CAD -- 83.0 36.15 520-IN 1974 India Sindri Fertilizer -- 91.0 1.04 521-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Dairy -- 27.7 15.89 522-IN 1974 India Madhya Pradesh Dairy -- 16.4 6.34 526-IN 1975 India Drought Prone Areas 35.0 11.33 1079-IN 1975 IFFCO IFFCO Fertilizer 109.0 -- 10.75 1097-IN 1975 ICICI Industry DFC XI 95.6 -- 4.17 532-IN 1975 India Godavari Barrage irrigation -- 45.0 10.58 541-IN 1975 India West Bengal Agric. Development -- 34.0 13.44 562-IN 1975 India Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) CAD 24.0 7.70 572-IN 1975 India Rural Electrification I -- 57.0 12.89 585-IN 1975 India Uttar Pradesh Water Supply -- 40.0 24.24 598-IN 1975 India Fertilizer Industry -- 105.0 59.90 604-IN 1976 India Power Transmission IV -- 150.0 84.90  ANNEX I Page 5 of 5 BALANC OtP PAYFNMIS 1975/76 (USS 1977/7d 127/79 lli)ISZ TS (AVAGCZ 1975/76 - 1977/78) Exports of Goods 4,672 5,753 6,276 6,800 Eagineering Gods 610 11 Imports of Goods -6,449 -5,928 -7,237 -8,400 Teo 417 7 Trade Balsaco -1,777 - 175 - 961 -1,600 GM$ 377 7 NPS (net) 310 360 650 700 Clothing 331 6 Leather and Leather Rtmource Balne. -1.467 185 - 311 - 900 Prodects 278 5 i/ Jute amafactures 267 5 Interest Payments (nat) - 216 - 180 - 50 - Iron Ore 265 5 Other Factor Fayments (eat) - - - - Cottoo Textiles 248 4 Net Transfers J/ 470 730 1,400 1,300 Sugar 244 4 Otbers 2,530 45 BaLance on Carrtat Account -1.213 1.039 400 Totel 5.567 ~~~~~100 Official Aid Disbursements 2,341 1,953 1,628 1,805 UIAZE L DET. U, EcZ 31. 1978 -/ Amortization - 531 - 560 - 645 - 725 US$ Uillto Transactions with l)F 242 - 337 - 330 - 158 Outstanding and Disbursed 14.8 All Other Items - 45 - 216 384 205 Undisbursed 4.3 Outstanding, including Increase in Reserves (-) - 794 -1,575 -2,076 -1,527 Undisborsed 19.1 Gross Reserves (end year) 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,350 W/l Net Reserves (end year) k/ 1,365 3,276 5,668 7,350 DIOT siZlCI RATIO FCR 1977/78 15.0 percent Foel end Related Materials IBD/IDA LENDING. DECOZHs 31. 1978 Imports 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 U3$ million of which: Petrolue 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 I= IA Exports 43 37 33 A.M. Outstoid,^ ..* Diaburead 613 3,S64 of which: Potrolsm 22 21 18 a. Undisbursed 615 1,992 Outstanding, including / Undiabursed 1,228 5,856 June 1966 to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 - Rs 7.5 Rs 1.00 - US$O.133333 Mid-December 1971 to end-Jua 1972 : US$1.00 - Rs 7.27927 Re 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 : Floating Rate Spot Rate nd-Decber 1978 : US$1.00 - Re 8.188 US$1.00 - Is 0.122 hi I*timated. i/ Figures givon cover all iaeastnat income (net). Major payments are interest on foreigm loans and charges paid to ltr, and major receipt is interest earned on foraign assets. J/ Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is included within official aid disbursements. k/ Excludes net use of ltf credit. 1/ Amortization and intarast payments on foreign loans as a percentage of merchandise exorts. !/ Excludes exchange adjustent, but includes US$ 22 million due to third parties.  ANNEX II Page 4 of 17 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 947-IN 1979 India ARDC III -- 250.0 250.00 1743-IN* 1979 India Thal Fertilizer 250.0 -- 250.00 963-IN* 1979 India Inland Fisheries 20.0 20.00 Total 2,528.8 7,255.0 of which has been repaid 992.1 58.4 Total now outstanding 1,536.7 7,196.6 Amount Sold 133.8 of which has been repaid 116.2 17.6 Total now held by Bank and IDA 1/ 1,519.1 7,196.6 Total undisbursed (excluding*) 579.4 2,797.6 * Not yet effective 1/ Prior to exchange adjustment.  ANNEX II Page 5 of 17 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of February 29, 1980) Fiscal Amount (US$ million) Year Company Loan Equity Total 1959 Republic Forge Company Ltd. 1.5 - 1.5 1959 Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. 0.9 - 0.9 1960 Assam Sillimanite Ltd. 1.4 - 1.4 1961 K.S.B. Pumps Ltd. 0.2 - 0.2 1963-66 Precision Bearings India Ltd. 0.7 0.3 1.0 1964 Fort Gloser Industries Ltd. 0.8 0.4 1.2 1964-75-79 Mahindra Ugine Steel Co. Ltd. 11.8 1.4 13.2 1964 Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. 1.0 0.3 1.3 1967 Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. 1.0 0.1 1.1 1967 Indian Explosives Ltd. 8.6 2.9 11.5 1969-70 Zuari Agro-Chemicals Ltd. 15.1 3.8 18.9 1976 Escorts Limited 6.6 - 6.6 1978 Housing Development Finance Corporation 4.0 1.4 5.2 1980 Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. 7.5 1.1 8.6 TOTAL 61.1 11.5 72.6 Less: Sold 5.9 1.7 7.6 Repaid 17.4 - 17.4 Cancelled 6.2 0.7 6.9 Now Held 31.6 9.1 40.7 Undisbursed 11.7 1.7 13.4  ANNEX II Page 6 of 17 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION I/ Generally, the implementation of projects has been prnceeding reason- ably well. Details on the execution of individual projects are below. The level of disbursements was US$538 million in FY79, compared to US$497 million in the previous year. Disbursements in the current fiscal year through February 29, 1980 totalled US$366 million, representing an increase of about 32% over the same period last year. The undisbursed pipeline of US$3,377 mil- lion as of February 29, 1980, reflects the lead time which would be expected given the mix of fast- and slow-disbursing projects in the India program. Ln. No. 1097 Eleventh Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$100.0 million loan of April 2, 1975; Effective Date: July 1, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Ln. No. 1475 Twelfth Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1977 Effective Date: October 4, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 These loans are supporting industrial development in India through a well-established development finance company and are designed to finance the foreign exchange cost of industrial projects. ICICI continues to be a well-managed and efficient development bank financing medium- and large-scale industries, which often employ high technology and are export-oriented. Loan 1097 is fully committed and disbursements are slightly ahead of schedule. Disbursements under Loan 1475 are also ahead of schedule. Loan No. 1260 Second Industrial Development Bank of India Project; US$40.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: August 10, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Loan No. 1511 IDBI Joint/Public Sector Project; US$25.0 million loan of March 1, 1978; Effective Date: May 31, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Loan 1260 is designed to assist the Industrial Development Bank of India in promoting small- and medium-scale industries and in strengthening the State Financial Corporations involved. Loan 1511 is designed to encourage the pooling of private and public capital in medium-scale joint ventures. The project also assists IDBI in carrying out industrial sector investment studies and in strengthening the financial institutions dealing with the state joint/ public sector. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.  ANNEX II Page 7 of 17 Cr. No. 440 Bihar Agricultural Credit Project; US$32.0 million credit of November 29, 1973; Effective Date: March 29, 1974; Closing Date: March 31, 1980 The project provides US$32.0 million in support of a lending program for 50,000 tubewells and pumpsets investment in the Tirhut Division of Bihar. Because of slow disbursements caused by a lower than estimated Dollar/Rupee exchange rate and by low unit investment costs compared with appraisal esti- mates, IDA agreed to extend the closing date to March 1980 and expand the project area to cover the whole State. Physical targets have now been achieved and the credit should be fully disbursed by the revised closing date. Cr. No. 947 Third Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) Project; US$250.0 million credit of August 20, 1979; Effective Date: January 2, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Refinancing of lending to farmers has been started under this project after the completion of the Second ARDC Project towards the end of 1979. Cr. No. 747 Second Foodgrain Storage Project; US$107.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 17, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 As of September 1979, satisfactory progress was being made in the construction of bag storage warehouses, despite problems of land acqui- sition at some sites. However, construction of flat bulk warehouses and port silos is not expected to be completed until 1985, as a result of delays in the employment of consultants and the longer time required for the prepa- ration of technical specifications and tenders and the construction itself. Cr. No. 456 Himachal Pradesh Apple Processing and Marketing Project; US$13.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: September 26, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project encountered prolonged initial delays due to managerial and technical problems. These problems have been largely resolved, but con- struction progress remains slow due to material shortages and severe winter conditions. Initial packing house operations were undertaken in the last two seasons with favorable response from farmers. The project is scheduled for completion by December 1980. Cr. No. 806 Jammu-Kashmir Horticulture Project; US$US$14.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: January 16, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The principal executing agency, J&K Horticulture Produce Marketing and Processing Corporation, is under strong management and rapid progress has been made in start-up operations with only minor slippage. The project's research activities, however, are behind the original schedule due to poor organization.  ANNEX II Page 8 of 17 Ln. No. 1313 Telecommunications VI Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1976; Effective Date: September 14, 1976 Closing Date: March 31, 1982 Ln. No. 1592 Telecommunications VII Project; US$US$120.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 30, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1982 Both projects are progressing satisfactorily, although as of November 1979, when they were last reviewed, imports of electronic switching equipment and local production of electro-mechanical switching equipment were behind schedule, resulting in a reduced growth rate for the installa- tion of direct exchange lines. Institutional improvements envisaged under the projects have been achieved, and the financial situation of the Posts and Telegraphs Department remains sound. Ln. No. 1079 IFFCO Fertilizer Project; US$US$109.0 million loan of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: April 28, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Cr. No. 598 Fertilizer Industry Project; US$105.0 million credit of December 31, 1975; Effective Date: March 1, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Ln. No. 1743 Thal Fertilizer Project; US$250.0 million loan of August 20, 1979; Effective Date: April 30, 1980 (expected); Closing Date: November 30, 1984 The IFFCO project was delayed by about a year as a result of a change in feedstock from fuel oil to naphta and delays in completion of engineering contracts. However, project construction is now proceeding satisfactorily and commissioning is expected within the next six months. Credit 598 is designed to increase the utilization of existing fertilizer production capacity. The project has encountered delays in sub-project preparation and investment approvals by the Government. Further, some of the sub-projects identified earlier may not materialize because of reconsideration by the Central and State governments. IDA has agreed to a list of sub-projects to replace the ones that are likely to be dropped. Because of the above, the project is likely to be delayed by about 18 months.  ANNEX II Page 9 of 17 Cr. No. 378 Karnataka Wholesale Agricultural Markets Project; US$8.0 mil- lion credit of May 9, 1973; Effective Date: September 7, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Delays in project implementation were encountered as a result of frequent changes in management in the early stages, and these have necessi- tated an extension of the closing date by 18 months to June 30, 1981, to allow for completion of works and withdrawal of the credit. Progress is improving, however. As of May, 1979, construction on 36 of the 39 markets envisaged under the project was underway or completed, and trade had shifted to about half of these. An additional five markets may be included in the project at the request of the State government. Cr. No. 312 Population Project; US$21.2 million credit of June 14, 1972; Effective Date: May 9, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 This credit is designed to finance an experimental and research oriented population project in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. The project's infrastructure, which would provide the optimum facilities (buildings, equip- ment, staff and transport) according to GOI standards in selected districts in each state, is virtually complete. The two Population Centers, established to design and monitor research aimed at improving the family planning program, are now functioning. The Population Centers are expected to complete their evaluation of family planning strategies and the introduction of management information and evaluation systems by the present closing date. Cr. No. 342 Agricultural Universities Project; US$12.0 million credit of November 10, 1972; Effective Date: June 8, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project involves the development of the agricultural univer- sities in Assam and Bihar. The primary aim of the AUs project is to improve the quality and practical training of undergraduates and so the spectrum of their employment opportunities; and to strengthen university structure to enable it to give an impetus to agricultural and rural development. Consider- able progress has been made in achieving the latter objective; but achieving educational objectives is more slowly attainable, constrained by traditional attitudes and structures where consistent effective leadership falters. Changes to a more functional orientation are now planned. The Project Director and others responsible are aware of the constraints and are support- ing efforts to remove them. Cr. No. 390 Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$55.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: March 13, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 842 Second Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$196.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effective Date: June 12, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1985  ANNEX II PaRe 10 of 17 Cr. No. 848 Punjab Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$38.0 million credit of October 27, 1978; Effective Date: January 25, 1979, Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 899 Maharashtra Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$48.0 mil- lion credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: November 9, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Having overcome earlier difficulties, including cost overruns caused by inflation (requiring project redefinition in February 1975), redesign of major project components and the addition of a supplementary study on sewage disposal, Credit 390 is now progressing satisfactorily. The water treatment works were successfully completed on schedule at the end of 1979. Completion of construction of the project sewerage works is scheduled for mid-1980. Financial performance of the project entity is satisfactory. Implementation of Credit 842, a second stage of the ongoing Credit 390, is proceeding to schedule. Preliminary work in connection with implementation of Credit 848 is progressing satisfactorily. Cr. No. 585 Uttar Pradesh Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$40.0 million credit of September 25, 1975; Effective Date: February 6, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The Project has had a slow start due to delays in the preparation of technical reports for regional and local water authorities and in the engagement of consultants. While improvements have been made in the physical execution, other aspects of project implementation continue to lag so that disbursements under the Credit have fallen short of estimates at the time of appraisal. In order to improve the situation, arrangements have be- .nade to closely supervise and coordinate implementation. Cr. No. 756 Second Calcutta Urban Development Project; US$87.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: April 7, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 The project is proceeding quite well in most sectors, in spite of the severe floods of September 1978 and serious Statewide electric power shortages. Procurement is generally on schedule for equipment and consultants' services, though somewhat behind for larger civil works contracts. Staff shortages in some of the implementing agencies continue, although more exten- sive use of consultants has to a great degree alleviated this problem. Cr. No. 687 Madras Urban Development Project; US$24.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1981 Physical progress is generally satisfactory and costs are within appraisal estimates on most components. However, land acquisition problems and consequent delays in construction on one of the three sites and service areas will result in about 15 months delay in the completion of the final sections of these areas. Inadequate attention and staff has been given to  ANNEX II Paee 11 of 17 the financial analysis and marketing strategies required to ensure that anti- cipated cost recovery in the sites and services and slum upgrading components and thus replicability is actually achieved. However, there is still ample time to deal effectively with these problems; technical assistance is being sought to strengthen financial management and analysis. Cr. No. 482 Karnataka Dairy Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 23, 1974; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 521 Rajasthan Dairy Development Project; US$27.7 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: August 8, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 522 Madhya Pradesh Dairy Development Project; US$16.4 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: July 23, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Cr. No. 824 National Dairy Project; US$150.0 million credit of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 These four credits, totalling US$224.1 million, support dairy devel- opment projects organized along the lines of the successful AMUL dairy coopera- tive scheme in Gujarat State. More than 2,100 dairy cooperative societies (DCS) have been established under the three state projects (Karnataka 923, Rajasthan-926, Madhya Pradesh-272). Farmer response had been excellent and project authorities are under considerable producer pressure to speed up the establishment of DCS. Profitability in almost all of the DCS is good and con- struction of dairy and feed plants is now proceeding at a satisfactory pace. Limited milk processing capacity has been the major constraint to DCS formation in all three projects. Under the National Dairy Project, three subprojects with an estimated total cost of approximately Rs 1,000 million have been appraised by the Indian Dairy Corporation and a further eight subprojects are in various stages of preparation and appraisal. Advance procurement of dairy equipment is well underway though disbursements have been slow, mainly as a result in the start of project operations. Cr. No. 532 Godavari Barrage Project; US$45.0 million credit of March 7, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Both the civil works and equipment tenders have been awarded after international competitive bidding. Work is proceeding satisfactorily. Ln. No. 1011 Chambal (Rajasthan) Command Area Development Project; US$52.0 million loan of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974;'Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 502 Rajasthan Canal Command Area Development Project; US$83.0 million credit of July 31, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981  ANNEX II Page 12 of 17 Cr. No. 562 Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) Command Area Development Project; US$24.0 million credit of June 20, 1975; Effective Date: September 18, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Ln. No. 1251 Andhra Pradesh Irrigation and Command Area Development (TW) Composite Project; US$145.0 million loan (Third Window) of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: September 7, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 720 Periyar Vaigai Irrigation Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 736 Maharashtra Irrigation Project; US$70.0 million credit of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 13, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 740 Orissa Irrigation Project; US$58.0 million of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 16, 1978; Closing Date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 788 Karnataka Irrigation Project; US$126.0 million credit of May 12, 1978; Effective Date: August 10, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1934 Cr. No. 808 Gujarat Irrigation Project; US$85.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Cr. No. 843 Haryana Irrigation Project; US$111.0 million credit of August 16, 1978; Effective Date: December 14, 1978; C.losing Date: August 31, 1983 Cr. No. 889 Punjab Irrigation Project; US$120.0 million credit of March 30, 1979; Effective Date: June 20, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 These projects, based on existing large irrigation systems, are designed to improve the efficiency of water utilization and, where possible, to use water savings for bringing additional areas under irrigation. Canal lining and other irrigation infrastructure, drainage, and land shaping are prominent components of these projects. In addition, provisions have been made to increase agricultural production and marketing by reforming and upgrading agricultural extension services and by providing processing and storage facilities and village access roads. Progress of these projects is generally satisfactory with the exception of the Nagarjunasagar compo- nent of Loan 1251 where water losses have proven higher than anticipated. Specific efforts are underway to redesign this project so that it can achieve its original objectives.  ANNEX II Page 13 of 17 Cr. No. 541 West Bengal Agricultural Development Project; US$34.0 million credit of April 28, 1975; Effective Date: August 28, 1975; Closing Date: March 31, 1981 The progress of shallow tubewells is well ahead of the appraisal schedule, but progress in all other areas is slow. The project will not fully disburse by the closing date, and GOI's request for an extension is expected. Cr. No. 682 Orissa Agricultural Development Project; US$20.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 Cr. No. 690 West Bengal Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$12.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: August 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 712 Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$10.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: September 2, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 Cr. No. 728 Assam Agricultural Development Project; US$8.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 737 Rajasthan Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$13.0 million credit of November 14, 1977; Effective Date: February 6, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 761 Bihar Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$8.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 2, 1978; Closing Date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 862 Composite Agricultural Extension Project, US$25.0 million credit of February 16, 1979; Effective Date (expected): December 14, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 These seven credits finance the reorganization and strengthening of agricultural extension services and the development of adaptive research capabilities in nine States in India. In areas where the reformed extension system is in full operation, field results have been very good, both in terms of adoption of new agricultural techniques and of increased crop yields. In Rajasthan, Assam, and Orissa, in particular, significant gains have been made under the projects. In West Bengal, where a change in government brought a review of the organizational principles underlying the new extension system and an accompanying hiatus in project implementation, a recent Cabinet deci- sion has reaffirmed the State Government's commitment to the project and revised implementation plans are under preparation. In Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, staff shortages, particularly in supervisory and managerial posts, have hampered project implementation, although progress in areas where  ANNEX II Page 14 of 17 regular extension visits are being made attests to the efficacy of the system itself. Finally, in Gujarat, Haryana and Karnataka, all covered under the Composite Agricultural Extension Project (which is not yet effec- tive), project implementation is still in the very early stages, although important early administrative and financial steps have been taken which should pave the way for effective operation of the reorganized extension system. Cr. No. 855 National Agriculture Research Project; US$27.0 million credit of December 7, 1978; Effective Date: January 22, 1979; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 While the initial sanctioning of research subprojects under this project was somewhat slower than expected, due to staff shortages in the Project Unit, the pace has picked up considerably in recent months. Commit- ment of funds to research subprojects in FY80 is expected to meet or even exceed appraisal estimates, although corresponding disbursements may lag somewhat behind the original estimates. Additions to the staff of the Project Unit are being recommended to expedite further progress under the project. Cr. No. 526 Drought Prone Areas Project; US$35.0 million credit of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Overall progress of this project continues to be satisfactory. Implementation of most components is proceeding well. Dairying and dryland farming components show particular promise for the drought-prone areas. Cr. No. 680 Kerala Agricultural Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 29, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Project implementation started slowly due to initial staffing and funding delays. The project has now gained momentum and the planting opera- tions, which were one season behind original schedule, have been rephased to make up for lost time. Cr. No. 871 National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) Project; US$30.0 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: May 3, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 As of October, 1979, when the project was last reviewed, construc- tion of godowns had begun in the three participating States of Haryana, Orissa, and Uttar Pradesh. Consultants were being recruited to assist NCDC and State Cooperative Banks in strengthening their institutions. Initial project preparations have been completed on schedule; disbursements are therefore expected to follow the appraisal targets.  ANNEX II Page 15 of 17 Cr. No. 844 Railway Modernization and Maintenance Project; US$190.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effective Date: January 10, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Credit 844 was designed to help the Indian Railways reduce manu- facturing and maintenance costs of locomotives and rolling stock and to improve their performance and availability. The project is still at an early stage of implementation but is progressing satisfactorily. Cr. No. 609 Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance Project; US$4.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: May 17, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 A feasibility study financed under this Credit and completed in November 1979 has recommended the establishment of two mills, one for sawn- wood and one for pulp, as the basis of the development of a forest-based industry in Bastar district. Cr. No. 925 Uttar Pradesh Social Forestry Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: January 3, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 This project was designed to expand the social forestry program in Uttar Pradesh, to provide a source of energy to the villages, and supply raw materials to cottage industries. The project provides for large-scale tree plantation on 48,600 ha of public and village lands, primarily along roads, rails and canals, and on village common lands and degraded forest reserves. Cr. No. 610 Integrated Cotton Development Project; US$18.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: November 30, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project's progress remained very disappointing in all areas until the 1978 season, resulting in negligible disbursements. Due to renewed interests from GOI and the States, the project has now started to progress well. Short-term credits are increasing significantly, new processing units are being established in Haryana and Maharashtra, and plant protection activities have started progressing well. Ln. No. 1273 National Seed Project; US$25.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: October 8, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 816 Second National Seed Project; US$16.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 These projects were designed to increase the availability of high quality agricultural seed, and cover nine States (four by Ln. 1273-IN and five by CR. 816-IN). The first project started slowly due to organizational  ANNEX II Pane 16 of 17 difficulties and is almost two years behind schedule. Progress in the second project States is more satisfactory. The role of various organizations (National and State) in the production and processing of seed is being reviewed. Ln. No. 1335 Bombay Urban Transport Project; US$25.0 million loan of December 20, 1976; Effective Date: March 10, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The bus procurement program supported by the project has proceeded on schedule, with all 700 bus chassis and bodies having been ordered and 589 already in service. Total fleet strength has increased from 1,530 buses at the inception of the project to 1,900 buses in September 1979, in accordance with appraisal estimates. Depot capacity expansion is lagging somewhat behind fleet expansion, but should match fleet size by early 1980. However, delays in construction of new workshop facilities have been more substantial and will not be fully recoverable. Traffic management civil works are also somewhat behind schedule, although efforts are being made to speed up the works program. Ln. No. 1394 Gujarat Fisheries Project; US$14.0 million loan and US$4.0 (TW) and million credit of April 22, 1977; Effective Date: Cr. No. 695 July 19, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 815 Andhra Pradesh Fisheries Project; US$17.5 million credit ofJune 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: September 30, 1984 In Gujarat, harbor construction at Mangrol and Veraval are under way, and although some delays have been encountered, the project is progress- ing satisfactorily and no major problems are evident. In Andhra Pradesh, preliminary work on implementation is progressing satisfactorily, and harbor works at Visakhapatnam and Kakinada are scheduled to commence shortly. Cr. No. 685 Singrauli Thermal Power Project; US$150.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 Cr. No. 793 Korba Thermal Power Project; US$200.0 million credit of May 12, 1978; Effective Date: August 14, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Ln. No. 1549 Third Trombay Thermal Power Project; US$105.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: February 8, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Ln. No. 1648 Ramagundam Thermal Power Project; US$50.0 million loan and and Cr. US$200 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: No. 874 May 22, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1985  ANNEX II Page 17 of 17 Cr. No. 604 Power Transmission IV Project; US$150 million credit of January 22, 1976; Effective Date: October 22, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Credit 685 assists in financing the first stage of the 2,000 MW Singrauli development which is the first of four power stations in the Government's program for the development of large central thermal power stations feeding power into an interconnected grid. The second such station, at Korba, is being financed under Credit 793. The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) has been carrying out construction and operation of these power stations. Organization and staffing of NTPC is proceeding satisfactorily. Loan 1549 is supporting the construction of a 500 MW extension of the Tata Electric Companies' station, in order to help meet the forecast load growth in the Bombay area. Loan 1648 and Credit 874 sup- port the construction of the first three 200 MW generating units in Andhra Pradesh together with related facilities and associated transmission. All these large-scale thermal power projects are progressing satisfactorily. Under Credit 604, contracts aggregating about US$114 million have been ap- proved to date. Although this project suffered delays in preparation of technical specifications and evaluation of bids for highly sophisticated equipment, the project is now progressing satisfactorily. Cr. No. 572 Rural Electrification Project; US$57.0 million credit of July 23, 1975; Effective Date: October 23, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Cr. No. 911 Rural Electrification Corporation II Project; US$175.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: October 17, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Credit 572 consists of a tranche of rural electrification schemes financed by the Rural Electrification Corporation. There are now thirteen State Electricity Boards (SEBs) eligible for onlending, compared with six at the time of appraisal. The project got off to a slow start, due principally to the need to adapt the specifications and tendering procedures to interna- tional competitive bidding, but the position has improved and the full amount of the Credit has been committed. Credit 911 provides continued support to the Rural Electrification Corporation's lending program, and is helping to finance about 1,700 rural electrification schemes in fourteen SEBs, including the newly participating Uttar Pradesh SEB. The project is at an early stage of implementation, and procurement is progressing satisfactorily. Ln. No. 1473 Bombay High Offshore Development Project; US$150.0 million loan of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: October 20, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project is progressing satisfactorily. Gas and oil pipelines from Bombay High to shore were commissioned in June 1978. Most contracts for Phase III of Bombay High development have been laid, construction should be completed by mid-1980 and the loan should be fully disbursed by its original closing date.  ANNEX III Page 1 INDIA SECOND SINGRAULI THERMAL POWER PROJECT SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I: (a) Timetable of Key Events This project is the second stage of the first Centrally owned large-scale power station in India. A report on the project site was published in December 1974 and a supplemental feasibility report was prepared in May 1979. (b) The agencies which have prepared the project Ministry of Energy/Central Electricity Authority/ National Thermal Power Corporation Limited. (c) Date of first presentation to the Bank, and date of the first mission to consider the project Preliminary report became available in December 1974. The scope of this project was discussed at the time of appraisal of the first stage of Singrauli development in April 1976. (d) Date of departure of appraisal mission May 25, 1979. (e) Date of completion of negotiations April 21, 1980. (f) Planned date of effectiveness August 20, 1980. Section II: Special Conditions (a) NTPC to make necessary engineering consultancy arrangement for the 500 MW units as a condition of effectiveness (para 47); (b) NTPC to appoint project management and information system consultants by October 15, 1980 (para 48);  ANNEX III Page 2 (c) GOI to ensure adequate coal supplies (para 49); (d) NTPC to have due regard for ecological and environmental factors (para 50); (e) NTPC to inform the Association of any proposal to modify existing limitation on its borrowing powers (para 51); (f) GOI to conclude a subsidiary loan agreement with NTPC satisfactory to the Association as a condi- tion of effectiveness (para 51); (g) NTPC to achieve and maintain 9-1/2% rate of return (para 52); and (h) NTPC to sell power under satisfactory bulk supply contracts (para 54).  FGHANISTAN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ FHA rN 1 d o s . : CLAR R'R OF- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3-' X X:- -32- Jnm L932jft'. ,_J AE r _ 4- AaE -; 00 * S j40 X -; ! 8~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~X - Q ~ ~ ~ f >hkb A ~ ^'/ 0 aa X RazunRJ'b > v ( .i>> l ^/5' g jv~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~6 lk_-~--_ , olb^sl1swbbskyr\ D \>x f / . z]ari Xct / ^ x \ > 5 N 7 1 t('~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ DHUA '1 t . OpUS L _ *8 k *,'' b^?.,, r.f~~~~~h h ;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ P dA Nzrokuz Gu-( R WSz<\_2m2 lzzupr >Y t d C <X*t Z4L[_~~z% < / i P Phosr~~f$<S _e IAEHS{ 4 < ~~~ FeiE > zdfbGi 0 / (;J \ 0,5 g) I kzlZi,. aA jMuithx \3 < <\ 7~~~~~~~~~B P,N G E 1 0 :< ,, X ,. 0 -< ;t>t><X-sJ;2 3 J2:.,m' '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2' 1117- ~ \pl\1~ Y Arwr 4hd? yce Rd 0 -2t ::; # 'SNosl; AUrarR v ad / \i'filflors J t /< E nvdwrf~GI, 20,~~~ 20 hsw'//v -nrpr r dca 4>P_ )iea>xlSIbcisL ; *-kRdrg5 .SECOND SINGRAULI -16 tFIr:ux,