Rwanda - Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2818-RW REPORT AND RECONMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA FOR AN INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT May 15, 1980 This d.cunet bas resuttd dIsbtrIbulion au may be used by recipients only In the performance of their ei duties. Ils cutouts my met etherwise be diwlod without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Rwandese Franc (RF) US$1.00 - Rf 92 RF 100 - US$1.09 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS ADB - African Development Bank BGM _ Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongo Project FRG - Federal Republic of Germany ISAR - Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Rwanda (Institute of Agricultural Sciences of Rwanda) OCIR - Office des Cultures Industrielles du Rwanda (Agency for Industrial Crops of Rwanda) OPROVIA - Office National pour le Developpement et la Commerciali- sation des Produits Vivriers et des Productions Animales (National Agency for Development and Marketing of Foodcrops and Animal Products) OVAPAM - Office pour la Valorisation Pastorale et Agricole du Mutara (Agency for Agricultural and Livestock Development of Mutara) SCM or - Stacked Cubic Meter (equivalent to approximately Stere 0.7 cubic meter) UNDP - United Nations Development Programs PFP - Pilot Forestry Project (Swiss Technical Assistance) PMC - Project Management Committee UNITS Metric System  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - i - RWANDA INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Rwanda Amount: US$21.0 million equivalent Terms: Standard Prolect Description: The proposed project would be the first phase of a long-term program to develop the forestry resources of Rwanda and to strengthen its livestock industry. (i) The project would include the following components: (a) the establishment of 5,000 ha and 3,000 ha in Kigali and Butare prefectures,respectively,of fuelwood and pole plantations, to supply charcoal, firewood and building poles for the urban population of Kigali and Butare; (b) rural woodlots to supply firewood and building poles for the rural population; (c) the establishment of an integrated fcrestry and livestock scheme over approximately 4,000 ha within the Gishwati Forest and development of integrated crop and livestock services in the farming zones of the seven comunes surrounding the Gishwati forest; (d) the strengthening of the forestry services within the Ministry of Agriculture through the provision of staff, equipment, administrative buildings, and the reorganization of the Waters and ForestsDepartment; and (e) various studies, including a study of the energy needs of Rwanda, experimentation in charcoal- making by means of modern portable kilns, and develop- ment of simple and economical cooking stoves for the rural population; and (f) project monitoring and evaluation, further project preparation, and training. (ii) The population of Kigali and Butare would be the principal beneficiary of the fuelwood and pole plantations. An estimated 3,000 farm families would benefit from the establishment of rural woodlots and about 40,000 farm families would benefit from the crop and livestock intensification activities in the Gishwati area. (iii) The project involves several risks. The scope of the project is broad and requires long-term government support and effective management. Delays Thi document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - in implementation could result from management problems, delayed recruitments and slow delivery of materials and equipment. To offset these risks the project includes substantial technical assistance including support for the preparatory and start-up activities. Another possible risk is that yields from plantations might be lower than expected. An additional risk is that the local population may not be supportive of the plantation program if it is not seen as a source of direct benefits; however, there is some built-in flexibility in the Project design to adapt the plantation and development systems to local conditions. Developments under the Project would have to be monitored closely through intensive supervision. I. Estimated cost: 1/ US$ '000 Project component Local Foreign Total Administrative Support for Forestry Services 0.1 0.3 0.4 Project Management 0.3 0.4 0.7 Kigali/Butare sub-project 1.7 1.2 2.9 Gishwati sub-project 3.8 3.3 7.1 Technical Assistance and Consultants Service 0.1 2.2 2.3 Studies and Trials 0.2 0.2 0.4 Monitoring, Evaluation and Training 0.05 0.15 0.2 Total 6.2 7.8 14.0 Contingency allowances Physical 0.8 1.6 2.4 Price 4.6 2.6 7.2 Total contingencies 5.4 4.2 9.6 Total project costs: 11.6 12.0 23.6 II. Financing Plan (US$ million): Government of Rwanda 2.6 - 2.6 IDA 9.0 12.0 21.0 Total 11.6 12.0 23.6 1/ Taxes included in Project costs are negligible since virtually all items would be exempt from import duties.  - iii - III. Estimated disbursement (US$ million): IDA Fiscal Year IDA 81 82 83 84 85 86 84 Annual 1.5 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.4 1.4 Cumulative 1.5 3.6 7.2 11.2 15.2 19.6 21.0 Rate of Return: 14% (on about 92% of total project cost) Appraisal Report: Report No. 2868a-RW, dated May 9, 1980 Map: IBRD No. 14527R - 14528R   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA FOR AN INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Republic of Rwanda for the equivalent of US$21.0 million on standard IDA terms to help finance an Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development Project. PART I - The Economy 2. A report "Memorandum on the Economy of Rwanda" (No. 1108-RW) was distributed to the Executive Directors on July 27, 1976. Economic missions visited Rwanda in February and December 1979 and an updated economic report is being prepared. 3. Rwanda became independent in 1962. Since the present Government came to power in 1973, the country has enjoyed considerable! political stability. This has been greatly facilitated by the unity and relative homogeneity of the population and the absence of serious inequalities in the distribution of income and wealth. With a per capita income (GDP) around $150 in 1978, Rwanda is one of the poorest countries in the world. It is one of the smallest but most densely populated countries in Africa, with a population density of around 180 persons per square kilometer or about ten times the average density for all of Sub-Saharan Africa. The population remains predominantly rural, and only about 4.5 per cent were estimated to be in urban areas in 1978. 4. About two thirds of Rwanda's surface area is suitable for agriculture, virtually all of it already under cultivation. Small family farms of about one hectare predominate with little use of hired labor. Roughly 95 percent of the cultivated area is devoted to foodcrop production with fairly good diversi- fication over a range of foodcrops (bananas, sorghum, peas, beans, maize, cassava, and sweet potatoes). More than half of all farms also grow coffee, the principal commercial and export crop, and many farms combine crop production with cattle and small stock. Agriculture (including forestry and fishing) accounts for about 50 percent of total value added. 5. Apart from coffee, the only other significant agricultural export crops are tea, pyrethrum, and quinine bark (cinchona). Coffee accounted for about 60 per cent of the value of merchandise exports in 1978, tea for around 7 per cent, cinchona and pyrethrum each for roughly 3 per cent. Significant tea production and export only date from the mid 1970's and expansion has been rapid.  - 2 - 6. Cassiterite and wolfram, the principal mineral products, are still important sources of export earnings (together accounting for about 20 per- cent of merchandise export receipts in 1978) but production has stagnated over the last decade due to resource depletion and rising production costs. On-going mineral exploration has so far produced no significant new finds. 7. The growth of output in manufacturing has been relatively rapid over the past decade with gradual enlargement of the range of manufacturing activities. In 1978 manufacturing accounted for about 18 percent of GDP compared to around 14 percent in the early 1970's. Agro-industry and food processing activities remain the most important. 8. The landlocked position of the country and the great distance to the nearest sea ports (1,700 km to Mombasa) create special problems. Apart from the obvious effect of transport costs on import and export prices, seriously exacerbated by recent rapid increases in the price of petroleum, the country has been periodically subject to serious disruptions in transport links from political events within and between neighbouring countries. Although the Government has demonstrated commendable resolve and effectiveness in containing and correcting the direct and immediate effects of these disrup- tions on the domestic economy, the process of smooth and orderly development has been made more difficult. 9. Under the present government there has been a marked reorientation in the focus of development strategy towards agriculture and the rural areas. Increased food product1in is recognized as the cardinal priority and major emphasis is also placed on improving infrastructure in transport and communication. These objectives are reflected in the current (1977-81) Five-Year Plan and in the new Constitution which was adopted in December 1978. While tangible progress has been achieved, the rapid population growth, general land shortage, diminishing soil fertility and the country's landlocked position impose serious constraints on the pace at which development can take place. 10. While real GDP growth averaged between 5 and 6 per cent between 1975 and 1979, progress was rather erratic and uneven. Poor weather conditions in 1977 and 1978 adversely affected agricultural output, particularly domestic foodcrop production which, over the past few years, has barely kept pace with the rate of population growth. Production of coffee and tea, while affected by the adverse weather conditions, has been stimulated by high world prices since 1976. Information on developments in agriculture is still very fragmentary and incomplete but it would appear that such increases in foodcrop or export crop output as have taken place in recent years have been due mainly to extension in cultivation area--at the expense of animal pasture and forestry uses--rather than any significant improvements in yields. 11. The closing of the Uganda border during the first half of 1979 created serious supply and export problems. Domestic manufacturing and construction activity were particularly affected as was the production and export of tea. General shortages of imported raw materials and consumer  - 3 - goods resulted in accelerated price increases - the general inflation rate in 1979 is estimated at about 25 percent. However, the measures which the government took to allocate import supplies to priority uses and to limit the growth of monetary and credit expansion did much to contain the adverse effects. 12. The trade balance, which had been in surplus in 1976 (RF 760 million) and 1977 (RF 2,105 million), registered a deficit of about RF 3,100 million in 1978. This was mainly due to lower coffee export prices and to delays in exporting the coffee crop at the end of 1978 with the closing of the Uganda frontier. The deficit on services account has grown rapidly over recent years with the effects of higher petroleum prices and transport difficulties on transport costs. With significant exceptional external aid in 1978 to meet the transport crises the overall balance of payments remained positive and Rwanda's foreign exchange reserves in April 1979 were equivalent to about 7 months of merchandise imports. A factor which has also contributed to the satisfactory external financial position has been that imports have been kept at a lower level than would be required for more rapid and substantial economic growth. However, the balance of payments position remains very sensitive to world coffee and tea prices and, with the prospect of signifi- cantly lower coffee prices over the next year or two, is likely to deterio- rate. 13. The government has pursued sound and disciplined budgetary policies over the last few years with surpluses on current account being recorded in 1977, 1978 and 1979. The revenue base, however, remains narrow with a strong dependence on coffee export receipts. Budgetary development expendi- tures, while increasing, remain at an inadequate level and there are continu- ing difficulties in significantly increasing development expenditures in the agricultural and rural sector. Considerable strenghtening in project preparation and implementation capability is still required. 14. Economic and financial developments over recent years illustrate the country's vulnerability to external economic factors as well as structural weaknesses in the base of the domestic development effort. The priorities which the government has established for its development strategy, the initiatives which it has taken in fostering cooperation with neighbouring countries and its generally sound and responsive management of the economy are encouraging signs. More adequate progress in agricultural development requires intensified efforts in infrastructure (local roads, storage facili- ties) and extension services. A better coordination of external aid and technical assistance would also be required. Recent efforts to bolster project identification and appraisal capacity need to be expanded and inten- sified. A more systematic effort is needed to monitor Plan implementation and, particularly, to better coordinate the annual budget development expendi- tures with the Plan's investment program. The recent reorganization of the Ministry of Economics, Trade and Commerce, which aims at more effective coordination of policies is evidence of the government's awareness of these problems.  -4- 15. Even with continued movement in economic performance over the next few years the need for external assistance will increase, particularly with the prospect of deteriorating terms of trade. Rwanda's external debt is low and debt service payments represent only about 1.5 per cent of export earnings. Given the country's level of poverty, the prospective w-'ld trade situation and the length of time which structural adjustments in the economy are likely to take, external assistance should continue to be on the most concessional terms possible. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN RWANDA 16. Bank Group assistance started in 1970 and initially focused on the improvement of the road network and the strengthening of agricultural produc- tion. Rwanda has received eleven IDA credits totaling US$88.5 million, of which four (totaling US$43.1 million) were for roads, four (US$28.3 million) for agriculture, two (US$9.2 million) for DFC projects and one (US$7.9 million) for education. There have been no Bank loans. An IFC loan of US$535,000 for a tea factory was signed in 1976; a second IFC loan of US$226,000 and contingent equity commitments of up to US$60,000 for a tea factory were approved in June 1979. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits, IFC investments and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 17. The first three highway projects are virtually completed, and almost totally disbursed. A fourth credit for a highway maintenance project (Credit 769-RW) was approved by the Board in February 1978 and became effec- tive in August 1978; the specialists financed under the technical assistance program are performing satisfactorily and procurement of equipment is in progress. 18. The first agricultural development (Mutara) project was completed in July 1979 and funds have now been completely disbursed. A second credit of US$8.8 million, which supports the second phase of a long-term development for the Mutura region, is not yet effective, but implementation has started under financing advanced by the Project Preparation Facility. The Credit Agreement for a cinchona project (US$1.8 million) and the Credit Agreement for the Bugesera/Gisaka Migongo mixed farming and rural development project (US$14.0 million) were signed in August 1976 and in March 1977, respectively. Both projects are progressing satisfactorily. A credit for an education project (US$7.9 million) consisting primarily of construction, furniture and equipment for workshops, became effective in 1975. Physical implementation has been slow and complicated by procurement problems. The first credit of US$4.0 million to the Development Finance Company (BRD) has now been fully committed. BRD's performance under the credit has been highly satisfac- tory. A second credit of US$5.2 million to BRD was signed on July 13, 1979, and became effective on January 4, 1980. 19. Mainly because of shortages of trained manpower and managerial skills in Rwanda, the execution of projects requires substantial assistance from Bank Group staff through extensive supervision and from expatriate experts, for whom financing is included under most credits.  - 5 - 20. For the future, the primary emphasis of Bank operations will remain on agriculture, although absorptive capacity and the activities of other donors may limit the scope of our activity in this sector; on communica- tions to reduce the country's isolation; and on development of human resources. A Telecommunications Project is expected to be presented to the Exewutive Directors shortly. Preparation of a coffee development project has been substantially completed and pre-appraisal is under way. In highways, the Government has asked the Bank to participate in the financing of the Butare- Cyangugu roads, for which a feasibility study and detailed engineering will be carried out this year; the project would open up the southern region towards Zaire and Burundi and support both the forestry and the coffee development projects. In the water supply sector a project is being prepared which aims at improving water supply in rural areas and providing sanitation facilities for Kigali. We also intend to continue our support to the development bank (BRD). PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 21. Agriculture is the most important sector of Rwanda's economy. In 1978 it contributed about 50% of GDP, accounted for two thirds of its2export earnings, and supported over 90% of its people. About 54% (13,800 km ) of Rwanda's land area is available for agriculture, of which slightly more than half, only, (8,000 km ) is suitable for cultivation. Approximately 22% is pasture land, 6% is forest, and the rest is considered as unusable land. In 1976, over 95% of the area under cultivation was devoted to subsistence crops and 5% to commercial crops. Total foodcrop production falls short of basic requirements, and Rwanda spends about 11% of its export revenues on foodcrops imports. Moreover, Rwanda faces a critical problem of soil degradation accelerated by the growing population's demands. About 90% of the rural population is below the absolute poverty level of US$85 per capita per annum. Most of the land is still traditionally farmed, crop yields are low and practically no fertilizers are used. 22. By law, all land in Rwanda belongs to the Government; uncultivated land can be used by the Government for any purpose. However, most landholding is actually governed by both traditional law and modern regulations. Tradi- tional land tenure practice allows individual usufruct rights to continuously cultivated land. All pasture land is communally held. Most cultivated land can be passed on to heirs; it is rarely sold for cash. Farmers in organized settlement schemes (Paysannats) enter into a contract with the Government which grants them the use of 2 ha plot, but the settlers may not subdivide their plots among their children. The Government is considering a land reform policy which would include: (i) full use of all agricultural land so that land cannot be set aside by prominent landowners for their children; (2) dis- couragement of land acquisition by non-farmers; and (3) regrouping of small farms and pieces of land to form larger, continuous units.  -6- 23. Relatively good soils and favorable climatic conditions allow two crops per year in most areas. The variations in elevation and climate allow a wide range of crops to be grown. Subsistence or food crops grown at lower elevations include beans, maize, sorghum, bananas, sweet potatoes, groundnuts, and cassava. The principal food crops grown at higher elevations are peas, potatoes, and sweet potatoes. Cash crops, which account for about 70% of export earnings, include coffee, tea, pyrethrum, and cinchona. About 95% of cultivated land is planted with food crops, with an estimated one quarter of this area under bananas, most of which are used to produce beer. 24. The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock is responsible for policy formulation and coordination of activities in the sector. The Ministry has a staff of 2,400, most of whom are field extension workers or veterinary field staff. Its operating and development budgets were respectively RF 287 million and RF 1,291 million in 1977, representing a modest 4.2 and 6.6% of the Government's total operating and development budgets. The Government also operates through statutory organizations such as the Office des Cultures Industrielles du Rwanda (OCIR), which is responsible for quality control and marketing of export crops, and the Office National pour le Developpement et la Commercialisation des Produits Vivriers et des Productions Animales (OPROVIA), which is responsible for the production, processing and marketing of foodcrops and livestock. Agricultural research is carried out by the Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Rwanda (ISAR), through several research stations. 25. The Government of Rwanda has defined the broad objectives for agricultural and rural development in the Second Five-Year Plan (1977-1981). Four essential goals have been identified: (i) meeting the population's nutritional requirements; (ii) promoting a better utilization of human resources; (iii) improving individual and collective living conditions; and (iv) lessening dependency from abroad by diversifying agriculture and becoming progressively self-sufficient in food crop production. The Plan emphasizes the importance of agriculture in Rwanda's economy and the priority to be given to this sector, in particular to integrated rural development as one of the means of agricultural growth. The Livestock Sub-sector 26. Livestock has traditionally been seen as a symbol of wealth, rather than as a productive, integral part of the agricultural system. With the increase in population and the lack of new farmland, more and more grazing land has been brought under cultivation, causing overgrazing and destruction of the remaining pasture land. Consequently, in spite of improved animal health, the national cattle herd of Rwanda has been decreasing. In 1977 there were about 640,000 head of cattle, as compared to 750,000 in 1975. Cattle raising in Rwanda is still organized along traditional lines for milk and meat production. In spite of the severe shortage of grazing land, few cattle are stall-fed, although most goats and sheep are kept tethered. However, a major intensification effort has recently begun throughout the  - 7 - country involving stall-feeding of livestock on forage crops. Animal health infrastructures are relatively good but veterinary products are often lacking. Milk production is low, about 64 million liters in 1977, of which about one third was for human consumption. The Forestry sub-sector 27. The forest resources of Rwanda cover some 170,000 ha or less than 6 percent of the total area and are being destroyed at a very rapid rate. The existing forest comprises the Nyungwe reserve (90,000 ha), the Gishwati reserve (6,000 ha), State plantations (6,000 ha), communal woodlots (20,000 ha), roadside trees (2,000 ha), and individual woodlots (20,000 ha). Very few trees have been planted to replace those which have been cut down and sporadic government tree-planting programs have had only minimal success. Land is so scarce that farmers plant most of the land they have in crops which produce an immediate return. The result has been a steady decline in the supply of wood. 28. Wood is used in Rwanda as the principal source of energy for cooking and heating, for construction and building, and as the main fuel for various rural activities (drying of tea, tobacco and pyrethrum; making of bricks, tiles, pottery; metal forging; etc.) The most important wood derivative is charcoal, which is the preferred source of fuel for most of urban population. Charcoal prices in mid-1979 were US$4.34 equivalent for a 30-35 kg bag in Kigali and US$5.43 in Butare; a family may use up to 5 bags of charcoal per month. The high (and increasing) prices of charcoal have severely affected the u-ban population and in particular the poor, who have to spend a significant proportion of their incomes for their fuel needs. 29. It is difficult to make precise projections of future wood needs because of the many uncertainties about future population size, wood imports, and possible alternative energy sources. Assuming that the population of Rwanda will be approximately 7.5 million in the year 2000, demand fo wood can be roughly estimated at 5.5 million tons, or about 7.5 million m per year, which equals the production of 750,000 ha of plantations. Existing plantations and other forest resources would not even suffice to meet 25% of this demand. Even using all the wood that can be produced in Rwanda, alter- native sources of energy will have to be found. The only realistic possible substitute for wood energy is peat, since solar technology and methane gas recovery methods are not yet well developed, and petroleum products are likely to remain too expensive for all but a very few Rwandese. Studies are underway to examine the feasibility of using peat, but peat is more likely to be used for industrial than for domestic needs. The demand for wood is therefore likely to exceed by far the supply, especially in view of Rwanda's rapidly increasing population. 30. A major constraint on forestry development in Rwanda has tradi- tionally been the Government's lack of awareness of the magnitude of the problem and its consequent failure to develop a comprehensive forestry policy. Two major problems have to be addressed. The first is the critical shortage of land. Small, scattered, uncultivated hilltops remain, but large areas suitable for forest plantations are virtually non-existent. Reforestation programs have to confine themselves to areas which are unsuitable for either  - 8 - cultivation or livestock production, and to look for possibilities to inte- grate tree cultivation into the farming systems or to systematically plant trees along roadside. The second problem is the traditional attitude toward wood and forests which assigns a low value to wood. As wood becomes scarce and meeting a family's fuel needs demands an increasing proportion of both time and income, this attitude is likely to change. The government would then have a better chance of setting and enforcing realistic prices, in line with the growing scarcity of wood. The forestry policy will also have to include protection of the remaining natural forest, control of planta- tions, planting programs, means of enforcement, and a continued training effort. 31. The Government has become increasingly aware of these problems and has started action to address them. In cooperation with the Swiss gover- ment, a Pilot Forestry Project (PFP) was started in 1967. Two centers were established to promote both the conservation and rational exploitation of the forest, including a sawmill operation and charcoal production center. Other activities under this project included the publication of a guide to the main species of the forests of Rwanda, a forestry map and various didactic materials on the importance of forestry for rural development. The focus of the project's activities shifted in 1975 to rural afforestation, especially in Kibuye prefecture, and training. The PFP began to work more closely on research and documentation with the Institut des Sciences Agronomi- ques du Rwanda (ISAR) at Rubona in 1977, and at about the same time the Swiss helped to form the Groupe Forestier du Rwanda, an advisory group which periodi- cally meets to review forestry problems and prepare recomnendations to the Government. The PFP has also attempted to set up a seed distribution network, the Forest Seed Center of Rwanda, and one of the main thrusts of the program has been to improve the quality of locally produced seeds' especially in view of the difficulties involved in importing seeds. The PFP is now changing its emphasis to become a Forestry Development Project (PRODEFOR) which will stress support to the Department of Waters and Forests and continue the programs of training, afforestation, forest conservation, and forestry education and extension. A technical specialist will be assigned to the Department of Waters and Forests. On the whole, the project has been very successful. In particular, the scholarship program has permitted the creation of a nucleus of trained forestry personnel who are going to have a leadership role in the future development of the forestry sector in Rwanda. 32. Other agricultural projects have included reforestation components, often as an anti-erosion measure. The IDA-supported Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongo and Mutara projects include the reforestation of several hundred hectares; the agricultural intensification projects sponsored by the Federal Republic of Germany in Ramba and Gaseke communes, provides for reforestation of 100 ha per year; and the Banque Africaine de Developpement project in Karago and Giciye communes, includes reforestation of 2,000 ha over 5 years. The Belgian government is planning a project which would afforest 1,000 ha on the borders of the Nyungwe reserve. Much remains to be done in terms of standardizing forestry techniques and a stronger Department of Waters and Forests should be able to ensure better coordination of activities and avoid unproductive experimentation and duplication of efforts.  - 9 - PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 33. The proposed project was identified in 1977 and was prepared by the Government of Rwanda, with IDA assistance, during 1978. A Staff appraisal report entitled Rwanda, Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development Project No. 2868a-RW dated May 9, 1980 is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Maps (IBRD 14527R-14528R) showing the project areas are attached. Supplementary data on the project are contained in Annex III. Negotiations were held in Washington from May 6, 1980 to May 9, 1980. The Rwandese delega- tion was led by H. E. Frederic Nzamurambaho, Minister of Agriculture and Livestock. Objectives and Description of the Project 34. The main objectives of the Project would be to strengthen the institu- tions serving the forestry subsector and to initiate the first phase of a long term program to redevelop the forestry resources of Rwanda. A related objective would be to develop a high productivity cattle industry in the Gishwati area. The Project would thus comprise: a) the strengthening of the Forestry Services within the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, including (i) the reorganization of the Waters and Forests Department, including the Forestry Division; (ii) the construction of appropriate offices; and (iii) the provision of staff and logistical support; b) the development in Kigali and Butare Prefectures of: (i) 5,000 ha and 3,000 ha, respectively, of plantations to supply fuelwood, charcoal and building poles for the urban populations of Kigali and Butare; and (ii) rural woodlots to supply fuelwood and poles for the rural population; c) the development in Gisenyi Prefecture of: (i) about 4,000 ha as part of an integrated forestry and livestock development program within the perimeter of the Gishwati Forest, including 2,000 ha of soft wood plantations for the production of saw timber and 2,000 ha of pastures for cattle production of which 200 ha would be developed as a technical support center; and (ii) integrated crop and live- stock services in the farming zones of the seven communes surround- ing the Gishwati Forest; rural woodlots would also be established along the same lines as the component proposed for Kigali and Butare; d) technical assistance for project management and on-the-job training of Rwandese staff; e) studies and field trials, specifically a study of Rwanda's energy use and needs, experimentation with more efficient charcoal produc- tion techniques, development of new designs for cooking stoves for the rural population, and pasture and cattle breeding trials; and  - 10 - f) project monitoring and evaluation, further project preparation and provision of scholarships,mainly in forestry, livestock and financial disciplines. The project would be organized into two subprojects; a fuelwood and pole subproject in Kigali and Butare prefectures, and sawtimber planta- tions integrated with livestock activities in the area of the Gishwati Forest (Gisenyi prefecture). Implementation would be phased over a period of about six years, including the preparatory phase. Kigali/Butare Fuelwood and Pole Sub-Project 35. This sub-project would be implemented in the Prefectures of Kigali and Butare. In Kigali Prefecture, the Government has selected some 20 bare hills in seven communes, ranging in area from 100 to 400 hectares, and totaling about 5,000 ha within 50 km to the north and east of the city of Kigali. All the fuelwood and pole plantations would be located on the top and slopes of these hills, which are denuded, very sparsely populated, and in general do not lend themselves to agricultural production. In Butare Prefecture, the Government has selected two mountain ranges within less than 25 km to the west of the town of Butare: a series of bare hills in Runyinya commune and a long bare mountain range on the boundary of the communes of Runyinya and Maraba, covering a total net area of about 3,000 ha. It would be a condition of credit effectiveness that the Government had taken all necessary action to designate the hills selected for afforestation in Kigali and Butare as national plantations and to establish adequate procedures for the development and management of those plantations (Section 6.01(a) of the Development Credit Agreement). The Government has indicated that in the final determination of precise plantation boundaries every effort would be made to ensure that cultivated land and land suitable for crops would not be utilized. Where cultivated land has to be utilized, appropriate compensation would be paid (Section 3.07(b) of the Develop- ment Credit Agreement). 36. Kigali Plantations. About 5,000 ha of fuelwood and pole plantations would be established over a period of 5 years, mainly for charcoal and pole production for the population of Kigali. During the first year of Project implementation, 300 ha would be planted; the planted area would increase to 1,500 ha in the fourth and fifth year. In selecting the species to be planted, special attention would be paid to soil and climatic conditions. Selected seeds would be imported from neighboring countries, preferably Kenya or Tanzania, through the Forest Seed Center of Rwanda. The principal features of the plantation program would be manual ground preparation (pitting), seed- ling production in one or more nurseries, protection against termites in the nursery, manual planting, experimental fertilizing, and weeding. Eucalyptus plantations would be harvested at eight year intervals, with one seedling and three coppice crops. The principal investment items would be direct afforestation costs for nurseries and planting (materials, equipment and labor), development of infrastructures (access tracks, buildings), and plantation operation and maintenance during the project implementation period.  - 11 - 37. Butare Plantations. Short-rotation fuelwood and pole plantations totaling about 3,000 ha net would be established to supply the Butare market. The planting program would start with 200 ha in the first year and would reach 900 ha a year in the fourth and fifth years. A small office and staff housing would be built near Butare. The technical package and investments would be similar to those envisaged for the Kigali plantations. 38. Pilot Rural Woodlots. In order to encourage the communes, the population and various institutions such as missions and schools to participate in the country's reforestation program, the central nurseries in Kigali and Butare would produce for sale about 10% more eucalyptus seedlings than needed for the State plantations. The nurseries would also produce for sale limited quantities of fruit tree and fodder tree seedlings. This program would allow an assessment of the interest of the rural population in growing trees and woodlots to supply their own consumption. If the response is positive, a broader rural nursery program could be developed in future projects. During the project implementation period, the nurseries would mainly serve communes in Kigali and Butare prefectures. In accordance with the Government's current policy, rural woodlots would be grouped as far as possible, although they would be individ- ually owned. Fruit and fodder trees would be planted either around the rugo (home) or as anti-erosion hedges. The nursery staff and the staff of the Waters and Forests Department would provide technical advice and supervision to the communes, individual farmers and institutions growing woodlots. In the first year, 100,000 seedlings would be produced, representing 50 ha of woodlots; production would reach 480,000 in the fourth and fifth year of the Project, representing 24) ha a year. The main investment items would include planting materials (seed,, tubes, etc.) and the incremental cost of nursery operations. Gishwati Integrated Forestry and Livestock Develoment Sub-Project 39. The subproject activities would be carried out on about 110,000 ha in the seven communes of Gisenyi Prefecture in which part of the Gishwati Forest is located. The present farming system in this area fullv integrates the resources of the lowlands and highlands in the farming zone outside the forest, and the resources of the forest. Farmers have developed a complex crop and livestock husbandry system in which altitude is a deter- mining factor. Peas, sorghum and maize are mostly grown in the lowlands, while peas and potatoes are predominant on the highlands. Each crop is usually cultivated only once a year on the same plot; potatoes alone enter twice in the crop rotation system, but on different plots. Terracing is commonly practiced, but since Independence the planting of anti-erosion fodder strips has been discontinued. Family farm units average about 1.50 ha. Large tea plantations have recently been developed, thereby putting additional pressure on land used for food crop cultivation. Livestock is raised on post-harvest crop residues and fallows, and in the forest pastures when the former are exhausted. About 24,000 head of cattle are reportedly grazing permanently in the area, as well as 7,000 goats and sheep. The traditional system whereby the farmers raise the cattle of village chiefs is still commonly practiced; in addition, since the post-harvest fallows are opened to everybody, cattle is brought to the area from other communes or prefectures.  - 12 - 40. The objective of the sub-project would be to make optimal use of the high, but presently underutilized, agricultural potential of the Gishwati area while protecting its ecological balance, to develop forestry resources and to maintain and develop livestock activities. As a first step, a long-term land use plan for the Gishwati Forest Reserve would be established. For this purpose, detailed topographical mapping and a socio-economic survey of the selected areas are now underway with financing under the Project Preparation Facility. After the completion of the topographical surveys and mapping, the exact boundaries of the plantation blocks would be determined. The definition of the development objectives for the Gishwati forest and of adequate procedures for its management would be a condition of effectiveness of the Credit Agreement (Section 6.01(a) of Deyelopment Credit Agree- ment). The complete land use plan would be finalized and discussed with IDA as part of the first annual work plan review (para. 49). 41. The sub-project would include the development, within the Gishwati forest, of about 2,000 ha of softwood saw-timber plantation (as the first five-year phase of a 25-year program which should eventually reach 10,000 ha). The main activities involved would be land clearing and preparation, seedling production in one or several nurseries, pittingmanual planting and weeding, and some fencing of plantation blocks with live hedges to prevent encroachment by cattle. A network of forest roads and tracks would be established. The main firebreaks would be the buffer zones of pasture; narrower firebreaks would be established inside each planted block. Pilot rural woodlots would also be established along the same lines as the component proposed for Kigali and Butare. 42. In the farming areas of the seven communes surrounding the Gishwati forest, the project would include an integrated crop and livestock development program consisting of:(a) development of extension services for crops and livestock; (b) establishment of about 1,800 ha of pastures for livestock production around the forest blocks (these would also serve as firebreaks--see para. 41); (c) creation of a Livestock Technical Support Center on about 200 ha to develop a breeding herd, and to undertake some seed multiplication and pasture improvement experimentation; (d) an experimental program of credit to provide the financial means for farmers to acquire improved cattle, seeds and forage material for planting; and (e) experimental marketing scheme to support commercialization of milk, livestock, and meat. Technical Assistance and Consultant's Services 43. Some Rwandese technicians qualified in the field of forestry are now available but none of them has sufficient experience as yet to manage the proposed project initially. Technical assistance would thus be required for Project management and to train Rwandese staff to eventually take over the management of project activities. A team of specialists would be internation- ally recruited, including an administrative and financial director, a director for the Gishwati sub-project, two silviculturists (one for the fuelwood and pole subproject and one for the softwood plantation program), a construction superintendent, and one zootechnician for the Gishwati livestock program.  - 13 - It is estimated that technical assistance would be required for a total of about 340 man-months corresponding to 1.4 man-year of experts' services during the project preparatory phase, plus five experts for five years and one for two years during project implementation. The average cost of US$7,600 per man-month includes salaries, overseas travel and subs> _ence. Short-term consultants would be hired to assist in the implementation of the experimental credit and marketing activities, and for the detailed design of the training programs. Twelve man-months of consultants' services have been included in Project costs, at an average cost of US$10,200 per man-month including fees, transport and subsistence. Assurances have been obtained during negotiations that the qualifications, terms of reference and conditions of employment of these consultants would be submitted to IDA for review and approval. (Section 3.03 of the Development Credit Agreement.) Studies and Field Trials 44. Studies and trials would be undertaken under the project. These would include: a study to assess the energy use and future needs of Rwanda; studies to develop more efficient charcoal making with portable kilns and to design simple and economical cooking equipment for use by the rural population; and trials on fertilization and on fodder trees. Terms of reference and condi- tions of execution for the studies and trials would be submitted to IDA for approval (Section 3.04 of Draft Development Credit Agreement). Project Monitoring and Training 45. A simple monitoring and evaluation system based on key financial and technical indicators would be developed by the Project Management to assess project progress. For the forestry programs, this system would be retained by the Waters and Forests Department upon completion of the project. 46. Provision has been made in the Project for post-graduate training of forestry engineers and technicians, and for scholarships in livestock related disciplines, e.g. abattoir management and milk processing. Training funds have also been included for scholarships in accounting, financial analysis and management. Project Implementation and Management 47. The project would be implemented over a period of about six years, including a preparatory phase and an implementation phase starting around December 1980. A Project Management Committee (PMC) to be established within the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock would have overall responsibility for supervision of project implementation. It would include the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock or his delegate, the Project Coordinator, the Administrative and Financial Director, and the sub-projects'Directors and their Deputies. The PMC would supervise the overall planning, implementation and performance of the Project. It would approve the annual work plans,  - 14 - budgets and performance reports on the Project. Establishment of the Project Management Committee would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed Project (Section 6.01 (c) of the Development Credit Agreement). 48. Responsibility for day-to-day execution of the Project would be delegated to the Project Coordinator. The Project Coordinator would be assisted during the Project preparatory phase by a land use planner (to become later the Director of the Gishwati sub-project), the Administrative and Financial Director and supporting staff. During the Project implementa- tion period, the technical implementation of the Project would be decentralized into two sub-projects, each under the authority of a sub-Project Director. Qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment (including terms of reference) of all key Project Management staff would be agreed upon with the Association (Section 3.03 of the Development Credit Agreement). Appointment of the Project Coordinator and the Administrative and Financial Director would be a condition of credit effectiveness (Section 6.01 (d) of the Development Credit Agreement). It would be a condition of disbursement for the Kigali/Butare sub-project that the sub-project Director and his two Deputies had been appointed, and for the Gishwati sub-project that the sub- project Director, the silviculturist and his deputy, the livestock specialist and his deputy had been appointed (Schedule 1 para. 5 of draft Development Credit Agreement). 49. The Project Coordinator (PC) would coordinate the preparation of annual work plans as a basis for systematic project management. The major elements of the work plans would be: (a) a detailed description of activities by sub-project; (b) a detailed plan of operations for the forthcoming 12-month period (preferably the fiscal year); (c) a detailed investment and operating budget for this work elements, supported by appropriate documentation and justification. The draft annual work plans would be approved by the PMC, and then submitted to IDA for approval not later than October 1 of each year, so that the approved budget can be entered in the normal budget cycle of the Government. These work plans would also be useful instruments of Project supervision for IDA. Assurances on the above were obtained during nego- tiations (Section 3.09 of the Development Credit Agreement}. 50. Under the project the forestry services of the Ministry of Agri- culture and Livestock would be strengthened. The Department of Waters and Forests, including its Forestry Division, would be reorganized (Section 3.08 of Development Credit Agreement). The main responsibilities of the Forestry Division would be to develop a forestry policy, to draft legislation to execute the national forestry programs, and to assist prefectures, communes or institutions in the implementation of afforestation projects. It would, in addition, develop standards for nursery and plantation techniques, and supervise their application. The managerial and technical capacity of the Waters and Forests Department would also be strengthened through the Project. Upon completion of project implementation, the Project Coordinator and the staff of the two sub-projects would be reintegrated into the Waters and Forests Department.  - 15 - Accounts and Audit 51. The Project Management would maintain separate records and accounts on all project activities. These accounts would be part of the Ministry's overall accounts anLd would be controlled and reviewed following normal Govern- ment financial control procedures, which are satisfactory to the Association. Project accounts would be audited by independent auditors, and audited accounts would be submitted to the Association within six months of the end of each fiscal year. Accounting and audit procedures would be acceptable to the Association. (Sections 3.06 and 4.02 of the Development Credit Agreement). Pricing and Marketing 52. The Project fuelwood and pole production would be sold by the Govern- ment in Kigali and Butare and the saw timber produced at Gishwati would be marketed throughout Rwanda. Most of the incremental livestock production would be marketed through traditional channels. 53. A comprehensive pricing and marketing policy for forestry products has not yet been established. However, the Government recognizes the need to develop such a policy and has accepted the principle that prices of all forest products regulated by the Government should reflect the full cost of production. During negotiations, assurances were obtained on: a) the design and implementation of a pricing policy (to be reviewed annually with IDA), based on production costs for fuelwood, poles and saw timber; and b) the introduction, following consultations with IDA, of a policy for the exploita- tion of tree plantationL., including (i) the establishment of stumpage fees for the existing plantations and (ii) the preparation of a proposal for the exploitation of the fuelwood, poles, and saw timber plantations established under the Project. (Section 4.05 of the Development Credit Agreementl. 54. The Government would seek to sell seedlings produced by the nurseries against payments in cash or in kind adequate to recover the full production costs (excluding expatriate management costs). The Government would consult periodically with the Association on prices charged for seedlings and the adequacy of incentives to farmers to plant trees (Section 4.04 of the Development Credit Agreement). The cost of veterinary services would also be partly recovered as participants would pay for drugs and veterinary treatments; the proceeds from these payments would be paid into a project revolving fund (para 56). Project Costs 55. Project costs are estimated at prices as of February 1980. A physical contingency of 15% was applied to forestry developments and project administration , and of 10% to other project components. Price contingencies were calculated assuming that local costs awould increase at the rate of 18% in 1980 and 15% p.a. in 1981-1985; and that foreign exchange costs would increase by 10.5% in 1980, 9% in 1981, 8% in 1982, and 7% in 1983-1985. Taxes included in Project costs are negligible since virtually all items would be exempt from import duties.  - 16 - 56. The proposed IDA credit of US$21.0 million would be made to the Government of Rwanda on standard IDA terms. The credit would finance 100% of the foreign exchange costs, and about 77% of the local costs. The Government would contribute about 11% of total project costs or US$2.6 million. A Project Account of US$400,000 equivalent would be established under the control of the PMC and maintained at that level to ensure that adequate funds are available for efficient project implementation. IDA would contribute to the establishment of the Project Account by prefinancing US$300,000. It would be a condition of credit effectiveness that the Project Account be established and the minimum balance of US$100,000 be paid up by the Government (Sections 2.02, 3.01 and 6.01 (b) of the Development Credit Agreement). Under the Project Preparation Facility, IDA has advanced US$1.0 million to the Government to help start up the project. Amounts disbursed would be reimbursed from the Credit Account. (Preamble and Section 2.02(i) of the Development Credit Agreement.) Procurement and Disbursement 57. Contracts for the supply of materials and equipment exceeding US$80,000 would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank/IDA guidelines. Contracts would be grouped to the extent possible. Contracts for materials and equipment costing less than US$80,000 would be awarded following Government procurement procedures, which are satisfactory; subject,however, to the condition that for purchases of materials and equipment costing more than US$20,000, price quotations should be sought from suppliers located in at least three countries. The civil works envisaged under the Project are small in size, and would be scattered through- out Rwanda; they would be unlikely to attract international firms and inter- national bidding would not be appropriate. Development of the plantation sites would be undertaken directly by the Project staff. For the major buildings (Project headquarters and housing), local contractors would be selected on the basis of local competitive bidding in accordance with Govern- ment procedures which are satisfactory to IDA. The roads and other civil works (small buildings, etc.) would be carried out mostly by force account. 58. IDA funds would be disbursed as follows: (a) 100% of foreign exchange expenditures or 95% of local expenditures for vehicles, equipment and materials; (b) 95% of total expenditures for civil works, including roads, and direct costs of plantation and livestock development; (c) 30% of total operating expenditures for project administration and extension services; (d) 100% of total expenditures for technical assistance; (e) 100% of foreign exchange expenditures or 90% of local expenditures for studies, field trials, monitoring and evaluation, and training. Disbursements under (a), (d), (e) and civil works by contract under (b) would be fully documented. Disbursements for local expenditures on civil works by force account under (b) and for local expenditures under (c) would be made against statements of expenditure certified by the Project Coordinator and the Adminis- trative and Financial Director. The related documentation would be retained for inspection by IDA supervision missions.  - 17 - Economic Justification and Benefits 59. The economic rate of return from all directly productive components of the project (about 92% of total project cost) is estimated at 14%. The costs of strengthening the Forestry Department, future project preparation and studies and trials were not included in the analysis, as benefits _3.m these activities would accrue principally to future projects and programs. No separate rate of return was calculated for the rural nurseries (representing less than 1% of total costs) because of the difficulty of defining an appro- priate value for the eventual wood production. The rate of return for the Kigali and Butare fuelwood and pole plantations is estimated at about 13% for Kigali and 12% for Butara (assuming a project life of 33 years). The rate of return for the Gishwati plantations is estimated at about 12% over 26 years, assuming that the economic value of timber equals the projected costs of imported saw timber, including transport and cutting. The economic rate of return for the Gishwati livestock component is estimated at about 20% over 20 years. 60. In undertaking the proposed project the Government of Rwanda would in effect commit itself to a long-term development program, which would not yield financial benefits for a number of years. In the long run, the principal benefits of the project would include an increased supply of fuelwood, build- ing poles and charcoal to the population of Kigali and Butare. Sawn timber and smallwood production could support a possible future sawmilling industry. An estimated 3,000 farmers could benefit from the pilot rural woodlots. The rural woodlots program is likely to encourage part of the rural population to reduce the use of agricultural residues for fuel thus enhancing soil fertiliza- tion and reducing erosion. For the livestock and crop intensification activi- ties an estimated 40,000 farm families would receive direct benefits from the project. The increased supply of meat and milk would also contribute to improved nutrition, especially in the densely populated Gishwati area. 61. Project investments would have a significant employment impact in the project areas since plantation development would be highly labor-intensive. The Kigali plantation would employ 125 permanent staff and up to 2,500 laborers; the Butare plantation about 75 permanent staff and up to 1,500 temporary laborers and the Gishwati pine plantation 100 permanent staff and up to 1,000 laborers. Risks 62. The project involves several risks. The scope of the project is broad and requires long-term Government support and effective management. Delays in implementation could result from management difficulties, problems in recruiting staff, or slow deliveries of materials and equipment from overseas. To offset these risks, substantial provision for technical assis- tance, including for the preparatory and start-up activities, is made in the Project. Another risk is that yields from the plantations could be lower than expected, although experience with other African countries suggests that yield estimates are reasonable, and probably conservative. A further risk,  - 18 - common to all forestry projects, is destruction of plantations by fire, but appropriate provisions have been made for fire prevention measures. The risk that the production might not find a ready market is minimal, as projected wood production will fall short of the estimated demand. The Gishvati forestry component presents an additional risk which is that the local population may not be supportive of the plantation program, if they do not see it as a source of direct benefits. To offset this risk there is some built-in flexibility in the Project which would permit modification in the project design to adapt to local conditions, as the results of the economic survey become available and further experience is gained. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 63. The Draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Rwanda and the Association, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section I (d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distri- buted to the Executive Directors separately. 64. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III to this report. Additional conditions of effectiveness of the Credit would be that: (a) all necessary action had been taken to designate the areas selected for afforestation in Kigali and Butare prefectures, define the development objectives of the Gishwati Forest, and outline the procedures for the development and management of these plantations; (b) a Project Account had been established and a minimum balance of US$100,000 had been paid up by the Government; (c) the Project Management Committee had been established and the Project Coordinator and the Administrative and Financial Director had been appointed. (Section 6.01 of the Development Credit Agreement). 65. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply with the Articles of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments May 15, 1980  - 19 - COUT-TRY DATA - RWANDA ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 ZA ?ONATION bLST (1f7s) 28.340 Sq. ka 4.8 illion1 (uid-1978) 192 ptr sq. i. lots of gaeve: 3.23 (from 1970 to 17S; 1aeU1Ia 9.32 msdrat1a. PoPt1lAI0O ACTER7STICS (1977) "EJ1LT1 (1976) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 51 Population per physicianL 39,350 Crude Dearth Pate (per 1,000) Z2 Population per hospital bed 580 (1975) INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF L.AD 06N1ERSHIP Z of national income, highest quintile .. % owned by top 10% of ourners lowest quintile .. t owned by smallest 10% of owrners ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1976) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY Occupied dwellings without I vf .nn.zl'Ation - total piped water (%) 65 - rural NUlTRITION EDUCATION (1976) Calorie intake as % of requirements 90 Adult Literacy rare % 23 Per capita ptocein intake (grms(day) 51 Primary school entollmenmi Z 50 GNP PER CAPITA IN 1978 a/: US$1.82 GROSS :-^A710NAL PRODU T IN 1977 ANNUAL RATE OF GROt'TH (%, 1972 prices) USS Mln % 1974-77 1977 GNP at Market Prices 747.5 100.0 6.3 3.2 Gross Domestic Investment 114. 15.2 6O3 b/ Gross ?lacional Saving 68.9 9.2 -7.0- -2.0 Current Account Balance 45.1 6.0 Export of Goods, 21FS 134.1 17.9 -11.0 -40.6 Import of Goods, NiFS 179.2 24.0 10.1 6.2 Val1ue added USS Xtln Agriculture 339.6 46.0 Industry, mining. conjcrc-tion 138.8 21.5 Services 239.8 32.5 Total/Average 738.2 100.0 COVERNDEN47 FINANCE Ccntral Government (RuF Mln) % of GDP 1977 1Q77 1972 Current Receipt, 8345.7 11.8 8.3 Curtent Expenditure 6,43.0 9.1 10.7 Current Surplus 1207.7 2.7 -2.4 Capital Expenditurcs 43111.9 t.4 t.2 a. The Per Capita C!NP estimate calculated bve .n. e axa vn rsr enuq ; ''ortld B.ank At.ls. All other zonversx.onx to 'ol:arr !n this table ire at the w.Veraxe ctcthange rate ptovaili-n; during tlhe period covered. b/ Mission ttr-ate * not applible n flot avnil4ble  - 20 - COuIITRY DATA - RUaAZJEA ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 483NEY. CREDIT AND PRICES 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 (Rvt' :li