Tanzania - Seventh Education Project

Document of F-L E bv The World Bank FIL 1t FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 2782-TA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT A SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA June 2, 1980 Education Project Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EOUIA LENTS US$1.00 TSh. 8.30 TSh. 1.00 US$0.120 US$1.00 - D.Kr 5.75 D.Kr 1.00 = US$0.174 MEASURES I Meter (m) 2 = 3.28 Feet I Square Meter (m ) = 10-76 Square Feet ABBREVIATIONS BER Basic Economic Report (December 1977) CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi, the governing party CNE Colleges of National Education (teacher training) CURE Coordinating U1iit for Pesearch and Education (MOE) DANIDA Danish international Development Agency D.KKr Danish Kroner DDD District Development Director DEO District Education Officer ESR Education for Self-Reliance FUNDI Private local craftsman or artisan (swahili) MMD Ministry of Manpower Development MOE Ministry of National Education NEC National Examinations CncCScil PCU Project Coordinatinrg 2Tnit n uI der P1MO PIU Project Implementati-o jiTiit , under MOE PMO Prime Minister's Of Fce PPS Project Planning SectionL (MOE), current name given to PIU RCU Rural Constructi2o U.,it R&D Research and development activity REO Regional Educatiorn Officer SIDA Swedish International Development Authority SLP School Location Plenning (school mapping) Stream This term applies to classes wherever the students in each grade in a school are g-ruped into a constant number of classes. For example a Lthree stream school" is one where each grade has three classes. TANU Tanganyika African National Union, former name of governing party TES Tanzania Elimu Sulpplies (alimu - Swahili for "education") UNDP United Nations Developmeant Program UPE Universal Primary Education Fiscal Year July 1 to J-une 330  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TANZANIA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT A SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER DEMAND ...........1 Introduction ................. ... .. ...................... 1 Recent Development Trends and Prospects ............. ...... 1 Meeting Manpower Requirements ..... ... 2 Equitable Participation in Development .................. 5 II. THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN TANZANIA'S DEVELOPMENT ............... 6 Education Policy and Strategy . . ........................ 6 Education Structure and Management .................... 7 Primary Education .................. - ....... 8 Primary Teacher Training . . ................. 8 Secondary Education ............................... 9 Post-Secondary Education ....... ...... ........... . 11 School Examinations ......................................... 11 Financing and Cost of Education . ........................... 12 III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE AND LENDING STRATEGY IN THE SECTOR..... 13 Past Experience and Lessons Learned ... ... ................ 13 Lending Strategy . . .......................... . . 15 IV. THE PROJECT. . . . 17 Objectives and Composition ................. ............ . 17 Primary Education .. ............... 20 New Primary Schools in Four Least Developed Districts 20 Materials for Existing Primary Classrooms in 16 Additional Districts ............................ 20 Secondary Education ..21 University Demonstration Secondary School, Forms I-VI 21 This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Tanzania in May/June 1979 and included Mr. J. van Lutsenburg Maas (Educator/Sociologist and Mission Leader), Mrs. N. Shields (Economist), and Mr. K. Andersen (Architect) of the Bank Group, Mr. J. Smyth (Economist) of Unesco and Mr. H. C. A. Somerset (Examinations Specialist, Consultant). The project was further reviewed jointly with DANIDA in the field in October 1979 by Messrs. van Lutsenburg Maas and Andersen and Mrs. Shields, and in March 1980 by Mr. Maas. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. New Math/Science Streams in Upper Secondary Schools, Forms V-VI .......................... 21 Existing Math/Science Streams, Forms V-VI .. ............... 22 Dodoma Day School, Forms I-IV ............. .. .............. 22 Graduate Teachers of Mathematics and Science ............. . 22 Teacher Training ............................................ 23 Primary Science Teachers and Secondary School 23 Laboratory Technicians ................................. 23 Expansion of Primary Teacher Training Capacity in Zanzibar 23 Educational Quality Support Services ........... .. ........... 24 Tanzania Elimu Supplies (TES) ............................. 24 National Examinations Council (NEC) .. 24 Coordinating Unit for Research and Evaluation . . 25 Pre-investment Studies, Project Monitoring and Evaluation ....................... ...................... 25 Summary of Technical Assistance .......... .. .............. 26 V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCIAL PLAN ............................. 26 Project Cost ..... ........................................... 26 Cost Estimates ............................................ 28 Custom Duties and Taxes ... .. ...................... ...... .... 28 Contingency Allowances . . ...................... 28 Foreign Exchange Component ... . . .......... 28 Financial Plan ................ ............................. 29 Recurrent Expenditures ...... .............................. 29 VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT . .... . 29 Implementation .............................................. 29 Administration ........................................... 30 Reporting and Project Completion Report .............. .... 30 Design and Construction ......... .......................... 30 Professional Services (A/E) . . . ............................. 31 Site Selection ... ....... .... 31 Building Industry . .... .....31 Procurement ... ............................................... 32 Disbursements .......................................... 33 VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS ...... .................. .................. 33 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .... .....o ........ 34  - iii - ANNEXES Annex 1 - Tables and Charts Table 1. Total Manpower Requirement by Skill Category 2. Meeting Manpower Needs for the Modern Sector 3. Projected Opportunities for Form VI Leavers 4. Comparative Education Indicators 5. Primary School Enrollment Public and Private: 1970-79 Actuals and 1980-1991 Projected 6. Projection of Public and Private Secondary School Enrollments, 1977-1990 7. Expenditures on Education and Training in Relation to Total Government Expenditures, 1972/73-1978/79 8. Projected Government Recurrent Expenditures on Education and Training 1978/79-1985/86 9. Project Cost Summary 10. Implementation Schedule 11. Schedule of Disbursements Chart 1. Structure of Education, 1978 2. Educational Pyramid Annex 2 - Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File Key to Map Map No. 14718R  It 0  - iv - UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA BASIC DATA Population (1978 Census) 17.1 mil. Population growth rate (1968-1978) 3.0% p.a. Wage and salary employment (1976) 457,000 GNP per capita (1978) US$230 Education Enrollments Public Schools (Mainland) 1979 Primary education (Standards 1-7) - enrollment 3,274,604 - as percent of estimated age group 7-13 yrs 95.8% - percentiof enrollment which is female (1978) 46% Lower secondary education (Forms I-IV) - enrollment 36,834 - as percent of estimated age group 14-17 yrs 2.6% - percent of enrollment which is female 32% Upper secondary education (Forms V-VI) - enrollment 3,464 - as percent of estimate age group 18-19 yrs 0.6% - percent of enrollment which is female 24% University of Dar-es-Salaam - enrollment of Tanzanians 2,281 - percent which is female 16.4% Private Schools (1978) Private school enrollment as percentage of: Public primary enrollment 3.0% Public lower secondary enrollment 55.9% Public upper secondary enrollment 6.2% Education Expenditures Government expenditure on education as percentage of total Government expenditure (1978/79 estimates) Capital 8.3% Recurrent 21.8% Total 15.8% as a percentage of GDP 6.8%  4 b 4 I  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA APPRAISAL OF SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER DEMAND Introduction 1.01 Tanzania is one of the least developed countries in the world, with a GNP per capita estimated in 1978 at US$230. Preliminary results of the 1978 census indicate that within the last decade, population growth has averaged about percent per annum. The average population density is only about 15 per km . About 95 percent of the population live in rural communities and depend on subsistence agriculture as a means of making a livelihood. The Government's development philosophy aims, inter alia, at (a) reducing in- qualities in income distribution through state ownership of important indus- tries, services and large scale agricultural enterprises; and (b) ensuring that basic education is available to all the citizens. 1.02 Major constraints on Tanzanian economic development have been (a) a lack of foreign exchange due to low export earnings and therefore inabi- lity to import items which are essential for its development; and (b) a critical shortage of high- and middle-level manpower which precludes a more efficient use of its natural resources. Recent Development Trends and Prospects 1.03 The mainland portion of Tanzania became Independent as Tanganyika in 1961. The islands of Zanzibar became Independent in 1963, and within a year were joined with the mainland to form the United Republic of Tanzania. Since Independence, the Government has initiated and carried out two Five-Year Development Plans (1964-1969, 1969-1974). The current plan, the third in the series, was postponed a year due to poor economic conditions in 1974-75. In the current plan period (1976-81), the Government anticipated high real rates of GDP growth. The expectation was that over the plan period, real growth of the GDP would average 6 percent per annum. This has not materialized. Over the period 1974-1976, the actual growth rate attained was 4.8 percent per annum. With the upsurge in coffee prices and a good harvest in 1976-77, there was substantial improvement in the economy, and the Government hoped that the economy would achieve the planned estimate. However, since the latter part of 1978, the economy has been set back as a result of poor export performance and the Ugandan war and the resulting shortage of foreign exchange. This has had some impact on several sectors, especially the construction and manufacturing sectors, which are dependent on the import of essential materials and spare parts. Consequently, real rates of GDP growth for the plan period are likely to fall short of what was planned. 1.04 Sectoral growth output rates have also differed from those predicted in the plan. Over the period 1974-78, mining declined by 15 percent per annum, and preliminary indications for 1979 and subsequent years point to the  continuation of the decline. Over the same period, construction declined by 6.8 percent per annum. Real growth rates in other sectors were below those predicted in the plan. For example, transportation has grown at an average rate of 4.9 percent per annum instead of the planned 6.5 percent per annum. The growth of Government expenditures has been greater than that of GDP. In 1976-77, there was a sharp contraction in the annual growth rate of Government expenditure from the high rate of 22.7 percent per annum in 1972-76 to 12.7 percent. However, this pattern is being reversed by the expenditures related to the recent war in Uganda. 1.05 Sectoral employment has fluctuated considerably since 1974. Public sector employment in the period 1974-78 grew at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent. Within this period, total wage employment rose by 2.4 percent per annum, with wage employment in commerce (including restaurants and hotels) growing at 11.5 percent per annum. Employment in utilities, construction, and finance declined over the period, with construction employment declining dramatically at 12.7 percent per annum. 1.06 In the light of recent developments, including the acute shortage of foreign exchange reserve and the decision to cut Government expenditures by 10 percent, the Bank Group staff has revised downwards its estimates of sectoral growth rates as well as the estimate of the real growth rate of GDP over the remaining plan period. Assumptions on which the current projec- tion are based are: (a) the attainment of 4.5 percent per annum real GDP growth between 1978-80; and (b) the Government will adopt attainment of real average rate of growth of 6 percent by 1990. 1.07 The development of manpower resources and their effective utiliza- tion are key factors influencing growth in Tanzania. A widespread shortage of trained high- and middle-level manpower constitutes a constraint on the social and economic development of the country. Given the recent shifts of emphasis by the Government in favor of mass-oriented primary education, the fewer resources available for secondary and tertiary education and training will need to be efficiently channelled to provide qualified and middle-level personnel to those sectors considered crucial for the country's social and economic development. It was in recognition of this factor that the Govern- ment in 1975 created the Ministry of Manpower Development (MMD) with the responsibility for forecasting manpower requirements, planning manpower development, and allocating high- and middle-level skilled manpower. MMD also makes recommendations as to the desired volume and composition of output needed at the secondary and higher levels of education to meet forecasted manpower requirements. Meeting Manpower Requirements 1.08 At the time of Independence, given the small number of citizens with post primary education, the most urgent need was to train the amount of skilled manpower required to increase local, i.e., national control of the  - 3 - economy. Priority was given to making up the deficiencies at higher educa- tional levels until the minimum manpower requirements had been attained along with a secondary school capacity which would match the needs of continuing growth. Manpower requirements were projected over long periods so that educational expansion had to be geared to this growth. 1980 was the target date for which a balance between the demand the output of educational insti- tutions would be achieved. Each Plan since Independence has contained a projection of manpower requirements. 1.09 Subsequent to the preparation of the Third Five-Year Development Plan, MMD prepared revised estimates of requirements and shortfalls of higher- and middle-level manpower for the period 1975-80. Estimates of manpower requirements for Category, A, B and C 1/ by the Plan were 8,276, 38,556 and 58,892 respectively. These manpower requirements have been revised by Bank Group staff. Even with a lower than anticipated annual GDP growth rate, the manpower requirements are estimated to be higher than the levels targeted for 1980 in the Third Five-Year Plan (Annex 1, T-1). The demand for university- level professionals (Category A) rose from 8,280 to almost 9,430, a difference of 1,150. The demand for subprofessionals requiring post-secondary education (Category B) was 1.4 times more than that projected in the plan. Finally, the demand for craftsmen, technicians, and other skilled workers having at least a secondary-level education (Category C) was about 1,000 more than projected. The main reason for this is that even though during 1976-78 the demand for labor in the construction industry and some other sectors (especially finance and utilities) dropped off, the requirements for persons with specific skills in the public sector were high enough to compensate for any lessening in demand in these other sectors. The skill requirements per unit of employment in the public sector are 2.8 and 1.8 times higher for professional and sub- professional categories, respectively, than in any other sector because of the characteristic high demand by any large-scale, rational/bureaucratic organiza- tion (such as parastatals or Government ministries) for persons with higher formal qualifications. 1.10 It is estimated that the gap between supply and demand for higher- and middle-level personnel in Tanzania will persist during the period 1975- 1990 (Annex 1, T-2). The continuation and the magnitude of the gap depend on the Government's policy towards the expansion of training opportunities at the secondary level as well as the policies towards employment of expatriates in positions where the shortage is most critical. The gap is most pronounced in 1/ The categories in the Manpower Plan are defined as follows: A - Jobs normally requiring a University degree (professionals). B - Jobs which normally require from one to three years of formal post-secondary education or training (sub-professionals). C - Jobs which normally require a secondary school education for standard performance of the full array of tasks involved in the occupation. This category includes skilled office workers and skilled manual workers in modern crafts.  - 4 - certain specific professions including pharmacists, engineers, technicians, science teachers and other professionals whose skills are science-based. The critical shortage of engineers has been remedied to a limited extent by the Government policy of exempting engineering candidates from the two-year national service requirement. Even if the Government were to have succeeded in its policy of replacing all non-citizens by 1980, and even if all vacancies existing at the beginning of the current plan period were filled, the gap between supply and requirements for Category A personnel would still be approximately 5,500. A doubling of the number of graduates from universities and other institutes of higher learning would be required to fill the gap. 1.11 The demand for Form VI school graduates will continue to outstrip supply if the employment and in-service training situations remain at the 1978 level given the current relatively small class group sizes (Annex 1,T-3). It is only after 1985, by which time the number of streams 1/ is expected to increase from 84 to about 105, when the proposed seventh project begins to have effect, that the gap would be halved. Specific shortage of engineers, technicians, science teachers, and other categories of workers requiring scientific knowledge were identified by the Manpower Report to the President (1977). Yet, in 1978-79, there were no candidates enrolled in first-year, university courses in veterinary science, forestry or hydrology, and other science departments also had very low enrollments. Since 1975, enrollments of first-year Bachelor of Science degree students have fallen from 174 to 100. The general cause of this trend is that many student candidates have not performed adequately in their qualifying tests for entry to science-based courses (para. 2.10). 1.12 Faced with the prospect of persisting manpower shortages, the MMD finds itself required to re-evaluate the approach to manpower and education planning which it has followed for a decade. The year 1980 had been set as the target for replacing expatriate high- and middle-level manpower with Tanzanians. But, in spite of these ambitious targets, restraints were placed on the expansion of secondary school output. This policy of restraint was derived from forecasts of secondary school output which fallaciously equated final year enrollments in each secondary cycle with qualified outputs, without sufficient regard for the high degree of internal variation in the quality of the graduating class. In fact, large numbers of secondary school leavers, especially those in private schools, pass only in arts subjects. Yet selection into further education or training after Form IV or Form VI, to produce categories A and B manpower, most often requires qualifications in mathematics and science subjects. This results in vacancies which are either left unfilled or are filled with unsuitable candidates who require remedial education in areas of general scientific knowledge. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the sources of this "distortion" in the supply of trainable manpower can 1/ The term "stream" refers to classes wherever the students in each grade in a school are grouped into a constant number of classes. Thus, for example, a "three stream school" is one where each grade has three classes.  - 5 - be found in: (a) recent imbalances in the secondary school curricula; and (b) the relatively low cognitive performance throughout formal schooling in mathematics, the physical sciences and English. This is discussed further in paras. 2.10-2.11 below. Eguitable Participation in Development 1.13 A consistent theme in Tanzania's development policy has been the integration of all geographic regions and ethnic groups in the national development process. Perhaps in no sector is this imperative more pronounced than in the education system, which is popularly perceived to be the main access route to reaping a fair share of benefits from the national development process as well as for developing tools for self-improvement. The imperative of equal educational opportunity for all groups has been translated into specific educational policies such as universal primary education (UPE), uni- versal use of Swahili as the medium of instruction in primary schools, and an elaborate regional and district quota system for allocating Form I places in Government secondary boarding schools as an overlay to meritocratic selec- tion criteria (para. 2.16). 1.14 Although the distribution of educational opportunities resulting from these policies appears increasingly equitable, a few discernible pockets of poverty persist, toward which the Government is determined to direct a special infusion of capital resources. Since the Government Decentraliza- tion Act of 1972 and the Village Act of 1975, increased responsibility for local development activities such as primary school expansion has been devolved to District and, recently, village authorities who must organize communal self-help actions and can expect only modest Government financial contributions. In most of Tanzania, socio-economic preconditions for self- help contributions to popular projects such as classroom construction have been strong enough to permit a rapid increase in the number of classes needed to cope with UPE. However, in at least two specific geographic areas, the Masai rangelands in Arusha Region and, to a lesser extent, the coastal districts of Lindi Region, community self-help has been hampered by local social and/or physical conditions. In the case of the Masai areas, settled villages are themselves a very recent innovation in the traditional pattern of transhumance. Through special efforts by the Government, the traditional Masai pastoral economy is undergoing a rapid transformation: cattle owners are being given secure seasonal grazing rights, village boundaries are being made exceptionally large in order to include both lowland and highland pastures, and cattle disease control and auction facilities are being established to raise Masai incomes. The Masai themselves are responding to this opportunity to acquire a viable commercial stake in development by becoming mixed crop and cattle owning farmers. For the first time, they are having houses built from permanent materials, an indication of sedentariza- tion. As the opportunity costs of schooling (from herding) continue to decline, it is expected that they will demand rather than merely accept more education for their offspring. 1.15 In the coastal areas of Lindi region, the hindrances to active community self-help activity derive more from physical isolation and hardship  - 6 - and a long legacy of human resource depletion. Before the colonial period, the area was victimized and disorganized by the depredations of the slave trade; subsequently, the area became a net exporter of labor to neighboring regions or countries. Recent developmental and commercial efforts are handicapped by physical isolation for over half of each year, when the rains cut the road network in the low-lying areas along the coast. 1.16 The special socio-economic circumstances in these two regions have made the Government aware that building its rural development policy (especially as it is embodied in UPE) too rigidly around the self-help principle will condemn these areas to fall further behind as the rest of the country achieves UPE. For that reason the Government policy is to assist these areas now so that they, too, eventually become able to practice self- help, rather than face continued socio-economic isolation. II. THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN TANZANIA'S DEVELOPMENT Education Policy and Strategy 2.01 Since Independence (1961) Tanzania has turned to education with an increasing conviction that human resource development forms an integral part of national development. Tanzania's First Five-Year Development Plan (1964- 69) focused on rapid economic growth. It gave priority to self-sufficiency in high- and middle-level manpower by 1980 and called for a comprehensive education system for adults and children as soon as financially possible. Following the Arusha Declaration in 1967, President Nyerere sharply criti- cized elitism, neglect of rural areas, lack of practical experience in formal education, and laid down the guidelines for reform in his policy of Education for Self-Reliance (ESR). Priorities shifted to favor basic education for the entire population. Education content was to be aimed at the rural environment where approximately 90 percent of the Tanzanian people live. To this end, farming and practical subjects were introduced in schools with the multiple intentions of teaching manual skills, correcting negative attitudes to such skills, and earning an income for the school. 2.02 The Arusha Declaration and ESR supplied the conceptual foundations for the education aspects of the Second Five-Year Plan (1969-74), according to which UPE was to be achieved by 1989. In this context, the primary school was to become a "community center," a focal point for meeting the educational needs of the whole community, adults as well as children. In addition, a national literacy program was launched to eradicate illiteracy. By the end of 1975, cumulative enrollments in literacy classes had reached 5.2 million or nearly 90 percent of the estimated number of adult illiterates. Despite this f-ocus on UPE and mass-oriented education, the target of reaching self- sufficiency in higher middle-level manpower by 1980 was retained.  - 7 - 2.03 In 1974, the Tanganyika African National Union (TANU) 1/ Executive Committee reviewed the successes and failures in implementing ESR. The resulting Musoma Resolution declared that UPE be advanced to November 1977. It also declared that in addition to a year of national service, university candidates would engage in two years of work experience and receive satis- factory evaluation from both their employer and their local TANU branch before continuing to higher education. Other parts of the resolution stressed existing educational policies of diversified secondary education, practical skills, and self-reliance (income-earning) activities in the schools. The Third Five-Year Plan (1976-1981) essentially reiterated the objectives spelt out in the previous plan as modified by the Musoma Resolution, but introduced the goal to increase female enrollment in secondary education, which had previously lagged. 2.04 After successfully universalizing Standard 1 (para. 2.05) intake in November 1977 (para. 2.06), the Ministry of National Education (MOE) estab- lished an internal Committee for Educational Consolidation in 1978 to take stock of major. sectoral issues and constraints and issue new directives to alleviate problems within its own jurisdiction. In 1979 the Committee began reporting out recommendations which the MOE is implementing by administrative circulars to the schools. Thus far, these deal primarily with primary teacher training (para. 2.07) and secondary schools (para. 2.11). The policy adjust- ments emanating from the Committee on Consolidation reflect a widespread public concern to counteract any deterioration in cognitive attainment levels in the aftermath of a series of unprecedented educational innovations: curriculum diversification in both primary and secondary schools; rapid reduction in numbers of expatriate teachers at secondary schools; a rapid increase in primary school enrollment; creation of 320 "post-primary technical sections;" a crash program of training 43,000 teachers in five years for UPE; mass adult literacy campaigns; and national service plus two years work experience before university entrance. Without yet judging the relative successes of these major, concurrent undertakings, the new, more pragmatic priority which is emerging is to do fewer things better to help the system absorb the best of the changes, and, through more systematic evaluations move away from those which have not worked well. To accomplish this the MOE is reorganizing itself internally to promote the use of research, evaluation, and monitoring in its policy-making while supporting a major strengthening of such important semi-autonomous support services as the National Examinations Council (NEC) and Tanzania Elimu Supplies (TES), which markets school teaching materials. Education Structure and Management 2.05 The structure of the formal education system (Annex 1, C-1 and C-2) consists of primary education (Standards 1-7), lower secondary education (Forms I-IV), upper secondary (Forms V-VI), and tertiary education provided primarily by the University of Dar-es-Salaam and Dar-es-Salaam Technical 1/ Since February 1977 the governing party is Chama Cha Napinduzi (CCM).  - 8 - Collegre. This basic structure is supplemented by a range of forma' and nonformal specialized training programs under a variety of Ministries. The MOE is responsible for operation of secondary schools, colleges of national education and technical colleges. Local administration of primary and adult education is decentralized in accordance with the Decentralization of Government Administration Act of 1972. The key official in this adminis- trative structure is the Regional Education Officer (REO), who is responsible administratively to the Regional Development Director and professionally to the MOE. At the district level the District Education Officer (DEO) is admin:istratively responsible to the District Development Director (DDD) and professionally to the REO. Both the REO and DEO are assisted by officers responsible for primary school inspection, adult education and supplies and logistics services. In addition, each Village Council set up since 1975 under the Village Act has an Education Committee which is increasingly responsible for raising self-help support for primary school construction. Primary Education 2.06 The highest policy priority in the education sector in recent years has been the bold, national effort to attain UPE. The increases in enrollments (Annex 1, T-5) bear witness to a dramatic achievement: enrollments grew from one million in 1972 to three million in 1978. Nearly all children 8 to 13 not previously enrolled were taken with those seven year olds into Standard 1 in the great UPE bulge (906,000 pupils) of November 1977. Hereafter, Standard 1 intakes should consist almost entirely of seven year old children. In 1979, 555,550 pupils were enrolled in Standard 1. This figure represents about 94 percent of the seven year age group. By 1984, the 1977 UPE intake "bulge" will complete Standard 7 when overall primary enrollment will peak at just below 4 million pupils. Barring major setbacks, beginning in 1985 the primary cycle will settle into a "steady state" where enrollment growth will be deter- mined by the birth rate, where teacher demand is stabilized, and where at least access to school will be equalized. The new challenges will be in pro- moting equity in cognitive performance and reducing dropout and repetition. The newly built classrooms in many districts are providing few if any of the basic conditions for a learning environment. In particular, simple furniture is missing, requiring pupils to sit on the floor. Initial stocks of textbooks and other teaching materials are also missing, forcing teachers to fall back onto rote methods of teaching. Primary Teacher Training 2.07 To cope with the huge increase in teacher demand brought on by the acceleration of the UPE target date from 1989 to 1977, the Government with support from SIDA, embarked in 1976/77 on a bold five year program to train roughly 43,000 new teachers through mainly distance-learning techniques. The candidates were themselves only primary school leavers. The program is over half-completed and showing positive signs of meeting the emergency effectively. Realizing however, that the program did not permit a comprehen- sive training, the MOE is already planning a continuing in-service residential program to start in 1981 to fill gaps in the background and training of these  - 9 - new teachers0 Nonetheless, the fact that so many new teachers will qualify in so short a time interval, and at so low a cost will eliminate the need for short-term capital expansion of teacher training colleges on the mainland which would become redundant in the medium-term once the bulge is met. 2.08 While the prospects are good for meeting the increased demand for primary teachers on the mainland, the situation in Zanzibar in this respect is less satisfactory. In the first place, Zanzibar was not included in the mainland's distance-learning scheme for filling the teacher gap. Secondly, 1,650 or about half of Zanzibar's roughly 3,300 primary teachers are untrained. As a result of its own drive toward UPE, Zanzibar expects enrollment to go from about 104,000 in 1979 to about 150,000 by 1985, generating a need for about 1,000 new teachers by 1985. An additional 600 teachers are needed over 6 years to replace those lost through attrition. Thus, the total six-year requirement is for about 1,600 new teachers. However, existing institutional capacity for training new teachers is about 200 teachers per year. It is clear from this that the numbers of untrained teachers will continue to grow until Zanzibar's teacher training capacity is substantially increased. Secondary Education 2.09 In 1978, lower secondary enrollments (Forms I-IV), both public and private, amounted to 59,000 students or 4 percent of the 14 to 17 year age group of mainland Tanzania. However, the state-supported and managed public schools accounted for only 37,900 or 64 percent of this, making it one of the smallest public secondary school systems in the world relative to size of population (Annex 1, T-4 and T-6). The public school share has declined steadily in the past decade as the Government has resisted social demand for more schooling by adhering strictly to manpower demand guidelines set by MMD (paras. 1.07-1.11). Private schools have expanded rapidly to meet the demand, which is expected to grow stronger in the years ahead as Standard 7 enrollment approaches a peak of 715,000 in 1984, before dropping back to just below 500,000 directly thereafter. By current forecasts, the promotion rate into public secondary school Form I from Standard 7 of primary school will fall from 5.4 percent in 1978 to about 2 percent in 1986, i.e., even after Standard 7 output has settled into a "steady state." Under those circumstances it is likely that, in spite of recent restrictions, social pressure will bring forth a continuing increase in private school enrollments. It is projected that the Form I intake into private schools will overtake intake into public schools as early as 1982 (Annex 1, T-6). However, the quality among private schools, on average, is decidedly inferior to the quality of public schools. 2.10 Notwithstanding the deliberately slow increase of public secondary school enrollment of about 3 percent p.a., performance in final examinations at Form IV and VI levels in scientific subjects has recently fallen from already low levels. For example, at Form VI only 50 percent, 49 percent, and 40 percent of the students taking mathematics, physics and chemistry, respec- tively, passed in those subjects in 1977. Yet, these are precisely the sub- jects given the greatest priority for qualifying either to continue in educa- tion, or to enter training programs or direct employment. Meanwhile, the num- bers of students qualifying in arts subjects (other than English language) or in the newer practical bias subjects such as home economics, agriculture,  - 10 - and commerce, appear to be sufficient to meet demand. The private school contriLbution to the supply of qualified Form IV and VI leavers in the high- demand science subjects is negligible since 89 percent of their students fail in math, physics and chemistry. With very few exceptions, private schools generally lack adequately equipped facilities and qualified staff for these subjects and consequently produced inferior results. 2.11 The MOE has recently begun to remedy these critical imbalances by shifting teaching time away from the practical bias subjects and to the sciences, and mathematics. Until 1979 students were expected to take! as many as 17 (out of about 42) periods a week in their practical bias subject- This change should raise the percentage of Form IV students studying chemistry and physics from less than 50 percent at present. However, significant increases in the pass rates on examinations will depend heavily on having more university trained teachers available to teach the sciences. Since 1965 the percentage of secondary school teachers who are university graduates has fallen steadily from 73 percent to 46 percent in 1977. The end of the decline is not in sight due to the high rate of transfer out of active teaching by such graduates. At present, only 43 percent of math and science teachers in public secondary schools have attended university, and some of these are non-Tanzanians. Since the secondary schools are themselves the source for increasing the supply of teachers, a temporary infusion of expatriate maths, physics and chemistry teachers is required to break the present vicious cycle. 2.12 A further characteristic of secondary schools is the low enrollment of girls, which has remained at about 30 percent of Forms I-IV in public schooLs since Independence. Their share of Form V-VI enrollment was 24 percent in 1979. Part of the demand for private schooling appears to satisfy the increased but unmet demand for girl's education. During the last decade female intake into private schools has tripled to the point where they now occupy about 37 percent of Forms I-IV in private schools. The Government is increasingly determined to rectify this overall imbalance between the sexes by requiring new lower secondary schools to be coeducational and opening streams for females at the upper secondary level. 2.13 In conclusion, the secondary school sub-sector will require creative policy-making in the coming decade as it gives rise to several interrelated issues concerning: the quality of learning in both public and private schools; calibre of staff; appropriate size of enrollment and output; male-female balance; class size; and, finally, unit operating costs which are raised by a high proportion of boarding in the public schools. The day/boarding issue is intertwined with complex admission policies for children from urban and rural districts. Present quotas in-practice give distinct advantages to Standard 7 pupils from a few of the urban areas, even though this is not intended. To deal with some of these issues the Government has undertaken a major secondary school resources survey with financial assistance from the Fifth Education Project (Credit 607-TA) and is planning to carry out an Education Sector Study in 1980/81 within which secondary school issues and constraints will receive specific attention (para. 3.12). Finally, it has given prominence to specific aspects of secondary education in its request for this proposed Seventh Education Project.  - 11 - Post-Secondary Education 2.14 After completing Form IV, students who continue their education may attend upper secondary school for two years and thereafter proceed either to university, or to various semi-professional diploma courses, but only after completing national service and two years of work. Alternatively, they may enroll in one of the many post Form IV colleges and institutes offering specialized training. These offer over three times more opportunities for further studies than upper secondary schools: in 1978 of some 12,500 Form IV leavers, nearly 2,000 entered Form V while approximately 6,500 entered other training. Excluding adult education centers, in 1976 there were approximately 120 colleges and institutes operated or supported by the Government with a total enrollment capacity of about 24,000 students, or an average of 200 students per institution. Maintaining high utilization rates in some of these institutes is proving to be difficult due to the inadequate qualifications of many candidates. 2.15 In 1970, the three constituent colleges of the University of East Africa became three separate universities in Uganda, Kenya and Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania. The University of Dar-es-Salaam comprises Faculties of Arts and Social Sciences, Law, Medicine, Engineering, Science and Agriculture. The University's Department of Education provides pre-service training for graduate secondary school teachers and teachers college tutors. In 1978/79 university enrollments totalled about 2,300 but some faculties are operating at only 60 percent of capacity due to a dearth of qualified candidates. In addition, nearly 140 Tanzanian students were enrolled in degree or diploma courses in Uganda and Kenya and 800 in post-secondary courses overseas. School Examinations 2.16 As in virtually all societies, Tanzania's examinations at the end of primary and secondary schooling are and will continue to be among the main determinants for general classroom behavior by teachers and students alike. This energy can be channelled with either good or bad effect educationally. As part of the Musoma Resolution (para. 2.03) Tanzanian candidates facing selection to secondary and post-secondary education are evaluated both by "continuous assessment" in their own schools of origin as well as by nation- ally standardized final examinations which are set and administered by the NEC, together with the REO in the case of primary leaving exams. Given the imperative of equitably choosing the most talented youth who will eventually fill the relatively limited number of high-level positions on which the national interest depends so much, without sacrificing the basic education needs of the vast majority who will not continue further with formal school- ing, the task of developing and administering efficient examinations is among the most technically exacting and vital functions in the education sector. Thus far, with fewer than 200,000 candidates to screen per year, a purely hand-operated examination/assessment system has sufficed. However, this has been at very high staff costs since the primary exam alone occupies nearly half of each REO's year at present. Faced with the rapid increase in numbers of candidates in the next five years, the Government is acutely aware of the need to modernize the examination system in terms of data processing efficiency, security against leakages, and quality of measurement of learning objectives.  - 12 - Financing and Cost of Education 2.17 Education and training activities are largely financed by the Government with parents and the private sector bearing a relatively minor share of the education expenditure. Total public expenditure for education inL 1978/79 was budgeted at T.Shs. 1,975 million (US$241 million equivalent) and accounts for 15.8 percent of total Government expenditure or about 6.8 percent of th,e GDP (Annex 1, T-7). The share of education of the total Government expenditure was slightly below the corresponding median for similar developing countries while, as a proportion of the GDP, Tanzania's position was slightly higher compared with other countries of a similar per capita income level. This is mainly accounted for by the comparatively large size of the Government sector in relation to GDP in Tanzania. 2.18 A quarter of the total expenditure in education anrd training in 1978/79 is capital expenditure. In the seven years since i972/73 when administrative responsibility for primary and adult educatic-a was devolved to the regions and districts, capital expenditure on education and training has averaged about 8 percent of total Government expenditures. For the Third Five-Year Plan (1976-81), the expectation is that the level of expenditure will remain the same. The level of capital expenditure during the current plan period shows the high priority the Government has given to education and training compared with the Second Plan period. It also indicates the growing importance of primary compared to secondary educational investments and the increase in teacher training facilities. 2.19 Foreign assistance for education is received from a variety of donor agencies. Out of the total T.Shs.197.8 million (US$24.4 million) worth of expenditures under ongoing projects under the MOE, in 1978/79, approximately 81 percent of total project costs was accounted for by external funding. The largest sources were: Sweden (T.Shs. 66.7 million), Denmark (T.Shs. 27.1 million), Netherlands (T.Shs. 17.2 million), W. Germany (T.Shs. 16.3 million) and the IDA (T.Shs. 14.8 million). 2.20 In 1978/79 recurrent expenditures in education and training amounted to T.Shs. 1,517 million or 21.8 percent of the total Government recurrent expenditures. The corresponding share in 1977/78, when the main impact of the introduction of UPE was felt, was 23.6 percent and the overall average for the seven years 1972/73-1978/79 was 20.9 percent (Annex 1, T-7). Just under half (47.2 percent) of the total recurrent expenditure on education and training in 1978/79 was accounted for by the MOE; regions and other Ministries accounted for 35.1 percent and 17.7 percent respectively. The main changes in the distribution of recurrent expenditure by level and type of education in the period 1972/73-1978/79 were significant increases in the shares for primary education (from 34.5 percent to 42.8 percent) and teacher training (from 5.7 percent to 9.2 percent ), decreases for all other categories, notably secondary education (from 16.4 percent to 10.2 percent) and traiining outside the MOE (from 21.9 percent to 17.7 percent). The large increase for primary education is due to the introduction of UPE. The latter had a major impact on the recurrent expenditure budgets of the regions: in 1978/79 primary education accounted for 33 percent of the Regions' total recurrent expenditures.  - 13 - 2.21 The outlook for Government recurrent expenditure on education and training is more hopeful than was anticipated three years ago in the 1977 Basic Economic Report (BER) when it was feared that the introduction of UPE would have insupportable recurrent expenditure implications. This changed outlook reflects the fact that the most recent growth of primary enrollments (1979) has proven to be more moderate than was projected. For example, enrollment totals of 2.8 million and 3.5 million were projected for the years 1976/77 and 1977/78 respectively, whereas the corresponding actual enrollments (public and private schools) were 2.3 million and 3.0 million. This, difference was due to the use of a narrower age definition of the target population for whom school enrollment was made compulsory in 1977/78. On the basis of new enroll- ment projections (Annex 1, T-5) derived from the recent census and 1979 enrollments, recurrent expenditure on primary education is not expected to increase above on annual average compound rate of 5 percent between 1978/79 and the end of the Fourth-Five Year Plan in 1986. The prospective rate of growth of total recurrent expenditure on education and training is projected rather lower, at 4 percent, annually because only a marginal increase in enrollments is foreseen under the MOE's presently conservative plans for the secondary education sub-sector, and notwithstanding the increased enrollments to be provided under the Seventh Education Project. This 4 percent annual growth rate implies a decreasing share for education and training in the Government's total recurrent expenditure if the growth of the latter matches either the 6.0 to 5.6 percent rates foreseen for GDP and the services sector respectively in the Fourth Plan (Annex 1, T-8). III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE AND LENDING STRATEGY IN THE SECTOR Past Experience and Lessons Learned 3.01 The previous six Bank Group-assisted projects in education have broadly supported the Government's changing sectoral objectives and have reflected the Government's concern with manpower development. With the Government's increased emphasis on rural development, the Bank Group has also made a number of specific attempts at supporting the Government's training efforts in the rural sector through both education and rural development projects. 3.02 The First Education Project (Credit 45-TA) in 1963 provided US$4.6 million equivalent for the expansion of general secondary education and was successfully completed in 1967. The Second (Credit 149-TA), begun in 1969 and completed in 1976 provided US$5.0 million equivalent for development of general secondary schools, the expansion of primary teacher training, and the Dar-es-Salaam Technical College. The completion and audit reports on the Second Education Project revealed a number of lessons among the most important of which were the need: (a) to expand access for women to the higher and more specialized areas of education and training; (b) to assure adequate staff for specialized subjects; and (c) to proceed cautiously with innovative practical subjects. The Third Education Project (Credit 232-TA) begun in 1971 and completed in 1977, provided US$3.3 million equivalent for agricultural training facilities to train villagers, farmers, and agriculture extension personnel. The audit  - 14 - report of the Third Education Project called attention to a number of signi- ficant points, e.g.: (a) implementation takes a longer time in projects involving more than one Ministry; (b) innovations should be avoided in programs which are easily susceptible to rapid institutional change or instability. 3.03 The Fourth Education Project (Credit 371-TA) begun in 1973, provided US$10.3 million equivalent to assist Tanzania's education strategy for the Second Development Plan by: (a) developing education and training facilities for children and adults in villages; (b) expanding and improving preservice and school-age in-service training of primary school teachers; (c) providing additional facilities for training medical doctors; and (d) providing voca- tional training centers. The project will be completed 18 months behind schedule. An early review of the project institutions indicates that full operation of the new teacher training college facilities is being hindered by a shortage of qualified teaching staff. The Fifth Education Project (Credit 607-TA) begun in 1976 provided US$11.0 million to assist in the villagization program, and ongoing transformation of the education system by providing for: (a) the training and housing of 1,500 Village Management Technicians, (VMT), (b) the practical subject workshops and science facilities for 15 secondary schools; and (c) pre-investment studies and surveys of accountancy, primary and secondary education. Extension to secondary schools is proceeding satis- factorily but construction of the VMT houses in 1,500 scattered villages is behind schedule due to the unreliability of anticipated community self-help for this, and to the difficulties of implementing such a dispersed construction program. A review of the project's secondary school component indicates that whereas the new science facilities are being fully utilized, school personnel are less certain about use of prctical subject facilities. Latest estimates, however, indicate the project can be completed by the original June 30, 1982 Closing Date. The Sixth Education Project (Credit 861-TA) provides US$12.0 million equivalent to improve and increase outputs from specialized skill training by (a) expanding two vocational training centers; (b) expanding and improving accountancy training; (c) providing facilities for management training of education sector personnel; (d) providing access for women to technical colleges; (e) and financing pre-investment studies, project monitor- ing and evaluation. Project implementation began in June 1979 and is progress- ing satisfactorily. A project implementation unit established under the second education project in the MOE has been institutionalized and is success- fully carrying ever-increasing responsibilities. 3.04 The proposed project would incorporate several of the main lessons learned from past IDA lending to Tanzania's education sector: it would (a) substantially increase female enrollment in higher secondary education (para. 4.10); (b) deliberately avoid further investments in major curriculum innova- tions (such as secondary school practical subjects) before solid evidence of their feasibility or early success is in hand; (c) be confined to familiar types of institutions which are relatively invulnerable to rapid Government policy shifts; (d) be confined to institutions which fall either ultimately or directly under the responsibility of one Ministry (rather than several), the Ministry of National Education in this case; l/ (e) make direct short-term l/ ]:n primary education the Ministry shares its responsibility (policy-making and teacher supply) with the regions and districts which are responsible ifor day to day operation of the schools.  - 15 - provision of the most critically needed types of teachers instead of only calling on the Government to assure a supply of them; (f) not depend on the availability of communal self-help for the implementation of any project component; (g) allow a project implementation period of six years. 3.05 In addition to the experience accumulated over the previous six education projects and an education component in the Kigoma Rural Development Project (Credit 508-TA), the Bank Group has considerable knowledge of the sector. In the late sixties the Bank supported a study of agriculture education in collaboration with FAQ, and the first comprehensive inventory of secondary school facilities in collaboration with Unesco. A sector study was commissioned by the Bank Group in 1971 and in 1974 a sector survey was carried out by Unesco staff. Through collaboration with the International Institute for Educational Planning, the Bank Group in 1975 assisted Tanzania in the development of education evaluation techniques. In 1976, Bank Group staff were involved in a special study of the fiscal implications of UPE, under the auspices of the Bank's Basic Economic Report. Finally, the Bank Group financed education projects have included studies in order to address areas where it was felt gaps exist and more work needs to be done. For example, the Fourth Education Project financed a study of management training and the Fifth Education Project has provided support for a study of accountancy training, an updated survey of secondary school facilities and a baseline sample survey of the content and efficiency of primary education. In 1977, Bank Group staff carried out a sub-sector study to examine the training needs required by the rural sector. In 1978, a Bank consultant was sent to lend technical assistance in manpower planning in the MMD. Lending Strategy 3.06 At Independence Tanzania inherited one of the smallest education systems in anglophone Africa. Notwithstanding major advances since then, especially in primary and adult education, the pace of growth in post-primary education has become relatively conservative in recent years. Perhaps as a consequence of this caution, there are increasing signs coming from all sectors of development in Tanzania that the human resource factor is becoming a constraint considerably more aggravating than in neighboring countries. Thus it is likely that Tanzania's investment in the education and training sector will be extensive for years to come. The Bank Group's involvement in this investment, as the previous paragraphs have shown (paras. 3.01-3.04) is equally extensive and is likely to remain so. In forming a strategy for further lending in this sector, the key criteria for selecting project compo- nents will be: the Government's articulation of its priorities for Bank Group financing; the Bank's cumulative experience in the sector; a concern to avoid undue burdens on the country's civil works capacity; a further concern to limit recurrent costs, especially in the immediate years ahead; as well as normal manpower justifications for the higher levels of education. 3.07 The Government's most immediate priority in the sector is to consolidate the gains from the large scale expansion and innovation in primary and secondary education, respectively, which have characterized the last ten years (para. 2.04). This priority is to be expressed in a set of  - 16 - relatecL investments to strengthen some weaker links in the sector, and to build quality-support services with a view to improve the input/output and cognitive-learning efficiency of schools. Some of the most glaring of the weak points are: the danger of a few districts not maintaining pace with UPE targets; (paras. 1.12-1.15), the impossibility of adequate learning in barren primary classrooms (para. 2.08); the persistent lag in female secondary school enrollment (para. 2.12); the unacceptably low levels of performance in secondary school math and science courses, (para. 2.10) and the related shortage of teachers (para. 2.11). Some of the new quality-support services which require immediate strengthening, especially to cope with the massive UPE-generated expansion of schools, are: the delivery mechanism for teaching materials including text and exercise books, the school examination system which effectively shapes and energizes classroom behavior (para. 2.16), and MOE's capacity to absorb the findings of educational research and evaluation in its policy-making and implementation (para. 2.04). 3.08 The Bank Group's cumulative project experience in the education sector in Tanzania provides certain guideposts which serve to caution against further investment in certain areas, or against certain assumptions on project implementation which have proved to be false. Most Bank Group involvement in the secondary subsector has supported curriculum innovation in the form of practical subjects with new specialized facilities. Low utilization rates in some of these facilities, plus the recent switch in teaching time allocation toward the sciences indicate the need to avoid further investment in this rather capital-intensive innovation until the results of a systematic evalua- tion are reviewed carefully. Similarly, but in a very different area, the poor implementation experience to date in VMT house construction relying on community self-help (para. 3.03) would preclude repetition of such an assump- tion. 3.09 Although attention is currently being given primarily to the re- quirements of basic general education (primary and secondary) it is clear that a complete strategy in this sector should not lose sight of specialized technical education. In fact, the Sixth Education Project is devoted to various types of special skill training sponsored by different Ministries other than Education. It is prudent to allow time for that project to be implemented and evaluated before following with a new investment in those areas. 3.10 Over time the Government has come to see further uses and comparative advantages to using Bank Group financing for expenditures other than just school construction, which typified early projects. In particular, it sees advantages in multilateral rather than bilateral financing of sensitive, software intensive items, such as capacity building in school examinations, curriculum development or educational research and evaluation. Thus new projecl:s are likely to include higher percentages of financing not only for equipment expenditures, but also for various types of technical assistance and initial operating costs to develop new sectoral management institutions.  - 17 - 3.11 From its involvement right across most manpower-consuming sectors in Tanzania, the Bank Group is made especially aware of high-level manpower bottlenecks hampering efficient project implementation. The two most recent education projects (Credits 607-TA and 861-TA) focused on the training of two specialized high-demand cadres for development administration, namely village management technicians and accountants, respectively. Instead of singling out another cadre at this time for special attention, most avail- able signs point at the under-production of math and natural science students from upper secondary schools as a source of many subsequent manpower bottle- necks in different sectors. Previous Bank Group financed education projects in Tanzania have not supported upper secondary schools. 3.12 The project which is proposed here would address the remaining sectoral development needs of which Bank staff have become aware. Before further needs can be identified, it will be necessary to update and replenish the Bank staff's sectoral knowledge. The Government has indicated its interest in undertaking a special study of key sectoral issues in FY81 and is inviting assistance from both the IBRD/Unesco Cooperative Program and DANIDA in carry- ing out this study. It is expected that such a study would draw on the primary and secondary sub-sector surveys being financed under the fifth education project (607-TA) as well as other recent research, including a survey of the urban labor market and education funded by the Bank's own research budget. IV. THE PROJECT Objectives and Composition 4.01 The major overall objectives of the proposed project are: (a) to improve the quality of primary education with more teaching materials and trained teachers, and to provide poorer districts with greater access to primary schooling; (b) to improve the quality and increase the enrollment and output of upper secondary education, particularly in order to improve female participation rates and alleviate critical manpower bottlenecks in science- based fields; and (c) to enhance the capacity of key Governmental and para- statal agencies to manage the sector. To accomplish these objectives the project includes the following items:  - 18 - Sub-Sector and Item and Type Principal Direct Objective Of Assistance Beneficiaries A. Primary Education Improved access Construction, furnishing, about 21,000 pupils and efficiLency equipping about 360 primary per annum classrooms, and related facilities in four least developed districts Improved Instructional Provision of teaching materials, About 448,000 pupils efficiency and greater including textbooks to 16 rural per annum equity in school quality districts B. Secondary Education Improve quality of Construction, furnishing and About 600 undergrad- secondary teacher equipping of a Demonstration uate teacher-trainees, training at the under- School for University Depart- and 500 secondary graduate level ment of Education school students per annum Expansion of upper Construction, furnishing and About 1,560 additional secondary school equipping facilities for about upper secondary school capacity in science 26 new Form V-VI science/math students per annum, and mathematics streams in 10 existing and one (of whom about 1,020 complete new secondary schools will be girls) and (Form I-VI) 320 additional lower secondary school students per annum (including 160 girls) Improved science and (a) Reequipping, refurnishing (a) About 2,040 upper math instruction in and rehabilitating of teaching secondary school existing upper facilities for 34 existing students; (1b) about secondary schools science/math streams in nine 5,000 students per existing secondary schools; year for four years (b) provision of 100 man-years of graduate teachers of math- ematics, physics and chemistry Increase proportion Construction, furnishing and About 320 lower sec- of day enrollment in equipping of extensions to one ondary school students lower secondary schools lower secondary day school per annum, of whom about half will be girls  - 19 - Sub-Sector and Item and Type Principal Direct Objective of Assistance Baneficiaries C. Teacher Training Training primary Provision of equipment for About 1,745 primary science teachers and science laboratories in 4 teachers in training secondary school lab- teacher training colleges and 35 laboratory oratory technicians and Dar-es-Salaam Technical technicians per annum College Training primary Construction, furnishing and 800 primary school school teachers for equipping of a new college teachers in training Zanzibar and renovating and refurnish- per annum ing an existing one D. Educational Quality Support Services Improve and distri- Provision of storage facilities, About 3,900,000 rural bution system for vehicles and fellowships to primary pupils; and school teaching Tanzania Elimu Supplies 75,000 secondary materials students Modernize operations Provision of buildings, equip- About 500,000 Standard and improve quality ment, technical assistance and 7 pupils and 20,000 of school examina- fellowships to National Exam- secondary students, tions inations Council per annum Strengthen use of Provision of fellowships, and Policy-makers and educational research equipment for Coordinating officials of Ministry and evaluation in Unit for Research and Eval- of National Education policy-making and uation, MOE execution Pre-investment studies, Provision of consultants project monitoring incremental operating costs and evaluation and vehicles for evaluating ongoing and completed projects and preparing future projects  - 20 - Specific project items are as follows: Primary Education (Sub-Sector A) 4.02 New Primary School Facilities in Four Least Developed Districts (A-1). The project would provide support to Monduli and Kiteto Districts in Arusha Region, and Kilwa and Lindi Rural Districts in Lindi Region to build new classrooms and provide related facilities and equipment, including teacher housing. As described in paras. 1.13 to 1.15, these four districts were selected for this direct form of support in reaching their UPE targets due to their exceptional social and physical constraints on full and effective mobilization of community self-help, which normally is the major means of primary school construction in the rest of the country. 4.03 To ensure the construction of permanent but lowcost buildings the project will finance the full costs of buildings, and to ensure that minimum conditions for learning exist in the classrooms once built, the project will finance full initial stocks of furniture, textbooks and other instructional equipment. To guarantee adequate and stable staffing of the new classrooms, which will be built in very remote areas, housing will be provided for the teachers who, because of the educational backwardness of these areas, will normally have to be transferred from outside the area. 4.04 Approximately 360 new classrooms - with related office/storage, sanitary facilities and housing - would be built by the project which could accommodate about 21,000 new pupils. This is estimated to be about 40 percent of all additional new permanent classroom accommodation required by 1985 to enroll the "steady state" UPE school population in these districts, taking into account population growth. Given the low population density in the four districts, the choice of village locations in which to put new buildings and the appropriate size of schools will be guided by efficient school location planning (SLP) criteria. The project will finance the services of an SLP expert to aid the districts. Where necessary, multigrade teaching and other school management practices will be followed to ensure full utilization of facilities. At negotiations the Government gave assurances that it would provide the Association, by not later than June 30, 1981, with a satisfactory list of village locations for the proposed new primary school facilities, including proposed school sizes, for each of the four districts. These locations and school sizes would be based upon SLP criteria of efficiency and equity as agreed at negotiations. 4.05 Also included in the project will be provision for new furniture and teaching materials to classrooms which have recently been built by other means, but which lack the minimum required materials to conduct essential teaching activities. 4.06 Materials for Existing Primary Classrooms in 16 Additional Districts. In most districts, the individual villages are successfully building new classrooms and teacher houses through their own community self-help efforts. However, due to insufficient funds or lack of access to materials, in somes cases the new buildings are without basic furniture and teaching materials.  - 21 - As a result, the pupils must sit on the bare floor or piles of rock and try to learn without the benefits of textbooks, paper or pencils. To reverse these conditions which inhibit efficient learning, the project would provide furniture and teaching materials to each of 16 districts at an average base cost of US$250,000 (not including the four districts in the previous project item). These inputs would be distributed among an average of 80 schools in each district, or a total of 1,280 schools, or about 16 percent of Tanzania's primary school population. 4.07 The furniture and classroom materials provided under the project will go to 16 of the poorest districts in educational terms, to help them raise the quality of their primary education. Because schools in urban districts normally have easier access to supplies of school furniture and materials, the 16 districts included in this project item will be rural. During negotiations, the Government agreed to select tentatively the 16 rural districts with the lowest enrollment rates, as the simplest and clearest criterion of educational need. The 16 districts (with respective 1979 enroll- ment rates) therefore would be: Urambo (60.8%), Igunga (68.5%), Hanang (74.3%), Kahama (75.2%), Nzega (77%), Shinyanga Rural (85.2%), Maswa (85.8%), Bariadi (86.2), Mtwara Rural (86.4%), Iramba (86.8%), Mbulu (88.2%), Singida Rural (88.2%), Sengerema (88.9%), Tabora Rural (89.3%), Chunya (89.8%), and Handeni (90%). The final list of 16 districts will be provided to the Asso- ciation for its review by not later than December 31, 1980. Any deviations from the tentative list would be explained by the criteria used to select different districts. Secondary Education. (Sub-Sector B) 4.08 University Demonstration Secondary School, Forms I-VI (B-1.1). Candidates for undergraduate Education degrees and post-graduate diplomas in Education from the University of Dar-es-Salaam have thus far been deprived of easy access to a model of "laboratory" secondary school for observing demon- stration classes conducted by experienced teachers as part of their training. Therefore to increase opportunities for practical teaching experience in their professional courses, the project would provide a new secondary school, with mixed day and boarding, coeducational enrollment in two streams, Form I-IV, and three streams, Form V-VI. The school will be located on the main University campus in proximity to the Department of Education. Partial boarding would permit a national cross-section in the student body, and a full array in Form V-VI subjects will be offered to permit the full range of observation classes. Special facilities would be provided to permit unobtrusive observation, practice teaching and testing by teachers in training. 4.09 New Math/Science Streams in Upper Secondary Schools, Forms V-VI (B-1.2, B-2, B-3). The project would support the construction, furnishing and equipping of facilities (including staff housing) required to increase the capacity of public upper secondary schools to teach math and sciences by nearly 50 percent by adding 23 new Form V and VI streams to 10 existing schools. In addition, one new coeducational secondary school is to be built, furnished and equipped at Ngara with another three math/science streams in Forms V-VI, and two agriculturally biased streams in Forms I-IV. Present output capacity of public and private schools is insufficient to meet the  - 22 - demand for math/science-qualified students emanating from various post- secondary training programs as well as from direct employment (paras. 1.08-- 1.11). To increase female participation from its present low-level of about 21 percent (para. 2.12), 63 percent of the additional new enrollment created by the project will be used by girls. Fifty-nine percent of this is to be added to schools operating exclusively for girls, the remainder to be in coeducational schools. A combination of district by district quotas and meritocratic entrance examinations ensure that both male and female student beneficiaries will include a level of representation from poor rural families which is unusually high especially for countries without universal secondary education. 4.10 Existing Math/Science Streams, Forms V-VI B-4). The project would re-stock about 34 existing Form V-VI streams in about nine schools with new sets of equipment and textbooks and rehabilitate or replace furnishings as appropriate to help raise the quality of instruction and hence the produc- tivity of existing schools in mathematics and natural sciences. 4.11 Dodoma Day School, Forms I-IV (B-5). The population of the new national capital is growing at a rate far in excess of the national average. Both primary and (day) secondary school facilities are already inadequate to maintain enrollment opportunities at the national average rate. Thus the project would add two additional day streams to the single existing public three-stream commerce-bias lower secondary day school (Form I-IV) in Dodoma. 4.12 Graduate Teachers of Mathematics and Science (B-6). To help maximize the return from this investment as well as to improve the ratio of university graduate to non-graduate teachers of math and science (para. 2.11), the project would also finance about 100 staff-years of expatriate volunteer- type teachers of mathematics, physics and chemistry who are qualified as university graduates. Teacher supply projections indicate a continuing shortfaLl of graduate Tanzanian teachers during the project implementation period. The public secondary schools must compete within a limited supply not only wilth private secondary schools but also Colleges of National Education. In addition, secondary school teachers, especially graduates, are very fre- quently transferred either out of active teaching or even out of the education sector altogether, as one of the consequences of a chronic shortage of high- level manpower. The teachers recruited for the project need not necessarily be confined to those schools which are included in the project for material assistance, provided they teach the designated subjects in public schools. In addiiton, these teachers could be posted to teach the same subjects in Colleges of National Education since they draw from the same sources of teachers. To minimize costs, the teachers would be recruited on volunteer-type terms, that is from bilateral or multilateral sources which either absorb some of the costs of recruitment and/or employment of teachers or are able to identify well qualified teachers who are willing to work at salaries far below the salary levels usually paid to technical assistance personnel. However, most volunteer-type teachers involve some costs, even if limited, to the Government. The project would allow the Government to pay volunteer teachers if necessary on the Local salary scale, for graduate teachers as well as cover related  - 23 - expenses and allowances for housing, local and international travel, insurance, removal costs and a gratuity if these are necessary to attract qualified teachers. On average, these costs are estimated to total to US$12,000 equi- valent per teacher-year. At this rate, the Government would seek to increase this figure by recruiting teachers from less costly sources. Besides, their professional qualification and experience, the teachers would be fluent in English. At negotiations the Borrower agreed (a) to establish by March 31, 1981, a plan of action satisfactory to the Association for the recruitment and placement of expatriate volunteer teachers to be provided under the project, and (b) to provide the Association by June 30, 1981, for its review and comments, a ten-year plan of action to begin in 1982 for the training, posting and retention of local science and math teachers, especially university graduates. 4.13 To increase the effective output capacity of secondary schools, the Government is considering increasing class group size. from 35 to 40 for Forms I-IV and from 25 to 30 for Forms V-VI. The project would facilitate this change by providing the extra dormitory accommodation required in the project schools. The Government provided at negotiations an assurance that the official class group sizes would be enlarged by these amounts by not later than December 31, 1983. Teacher Training (Sub-Sector C) 4.14 Primary Science Teachers and Secondary School Laboratory Technicians (C-1). The relatively low level of performance in secondary school mathematics and science has some of its origins in deficient teaching in the primary schools. Recognizing this, the MOE is setting aside four Colleges of National Education to specialize in training science teachers for the upper primary grades. The project would provide these colleges with the necessary extra laboratory equipment and textbooks to permit a greater degree of specialization in their courses. In addition, the project would replace worn-out and depleted equipment for physics, chemistry and biology laboratories at Dar Technical College in order to improve the quality of its annual course to train about 35 lab technicians to assist secondary school science teachers. The project would also provide about seven staff- years of fellowships to upgrade the calibre of existing college staff teaching the course. 4.15 Expansion of Primary Teacher Training Capacity in Zanzibar (C-2). Whereas the percentage of primary teachers on the mainland who are untrained is negligible, in Zanzibar it is about 50 percent. To reduce that percentage significantly as well as to supply the additional new teachers which Zanaibar will require until the 1990's, the project would finance the construction furnishing and equipping of a second teacher training college in Zanzibar, including full boarding accommodation for students and staff housing. This would double Zanzibar's annual output of trained teachers from 200 to 400 per annum. The new college would enroll 400 lower secondary school leavers in a two-year pre-service course. At the same time, the project would also finance some refurnishing and structural repairs of the existing physical accommoda- tion at Nkrumah Teacher Training College, the only teacher training college in Zanzibar today. At present, Nkrumah College offers both pre-service and in-service courses for primary teachers and a pre-service course for one class  - 24 - of secondary teachers. However, once the new pre-service college begins full operation about 1986, Nkrumah College would provide only in-service training for primary teachers and pre-service training for secondary teachers. Nkrumah College has a full teaching staff and the output of Zanzibaris from either the University of Dar-es-Salaam or overseas universities currently indicates that an adequate supply of college tutors will become available by 1986 for the new college. Whereas Nkrumah College is located on the edge of Zanzibar town, the new college would be located in the heavily populated northern end of Zanzibar island, at the town of Mkokotoni. At present, some of the staff and student diving, accommodation at Nkrumah College is used by persons who either work or study in other institutions around Zanzibar town. However, the Government has given an assurance that the accommodation would hence forth be reserved for the exclusive use of staff and students of each college. During negotia- tions these assurances were confirmed by the Government. Educational Quality Support Services (Sub-Sector D) 4.16 Tanzania Elimu Supplies (TES) (D-1). Responsibility for procuring and distributing all school instructional material rests with TES as a para- statal organization operating under advice from the MOE. However, other than a modern warehouse facility in the port area of Dar-es-Salaam, TES has lacked an infrastructure for delivering materials across Tanzania's broad expanse. The result is that REO's, DEO's and even Headmasters, regularly have to go themselves to Dar to buy items and hire their own transport for delivery resulting in extra costs and a lower volume of deliveries. Therefore the project would provide TES with needed capital to finance infrastructure in the form of 15 upcountry warehouses scaled to the expected volume of traffic, two vehicles per warehouse, and 10 staff-years of overseas fellowships for TES staff to gain specialized training in procurement, stock control and transport management. 4.17 National Examinations Council (NEC)(D-2). Considering the increasing importance of the NEC's role in shaping educational standards and maintaining public credibility in meritocratic selection mechanism and given the rapid increase in the volume of primary examinations activity in the coming five years (para. 2.16), the project would help to build up the capacity of this new, emergent institution by providing the second phase to its headquarters building, and by providing a package of technical assistance, fellowships, data processing equipment (with software), and incremental operating costs in order to shift the examinations from an entirely manual to a partly elec- tronically operated system. This would entail a period of intensive "research and development" (R&D) activity from 1981 to 1984 so that the new system will be in place to handle the 1984 Standard 7 bulge. About 12 staff-years of technical assistance specialists in systems analysis, examination research and item development, data processing, and computer programming and maintenance will be provided along with about 32 man-years of local and overseas fellow-' ships in these fields plus statistics. The major equipment to be procured will be a mini-computer and peripheral devices (mark or document readers) for data capture. The facility will be available to other users in the sector outside peak load periods. During the R&D phase the project would support the incremental costs in the form of paper and printing, travel, item writing workshops, and training seminars.  - 25 - 4.18 Besides the average annual number of 500,000 Standard 7 exam candi- dates, the NEC system will help process annually an average of 75,000 other post-primary examination candidates of various kinds. The Government esti- mates an annual financial saving of nearly TShs. 7.0 million (or over US$850,000) from shifting to the new system. Additional unquantified benefits would be derived from inducing better quality teaching by developing better quality exam items which the new system will permit for the first time, as well as from improving public credibility in a mechanism for legi- timately and meritocratically selecting most of those who will reap the career rewards of vigorous selection. To assure the recruitment of a highly qualified technical assistance team, the project would support a brief recruitment trip abroad for the NEC Director, facilitated by an advance from the Project Preparation Facility (PPF). Finally, the project will also support the incremental operating and technical assistance costs to computer- izing the post Form IV and Form VI selection process. 4.19 Coordinating Unit for Research and Evaluation (CURE)(D-3). In its concerted effort both to consolidate the quality of learning in schools and to promote the use of research and evaluation findings in educational policy- making, the MOE is creating both a new Inspectorate (including staff seconded to the 20 regions) and CURE, which will form part of the Central Inspectorate and work under close supervision of the Commissioner of National Education. To operate successfully, certain staff in various Ministry Departments and other sector institutions will need upgrading in skills either to generate or to use research results. Thus, the project would provide about 36 staff-years in local and overseas fellowships for sectoral personnel sponsored by CURE who upon training completion will contribute from their respective positions to either the generation or use of research, as coordinated by CURE. The project would also provide calculating equipment to facilitate CUREs function. 4.20 Pre-investment Studies, Project Monitoring and Evaluation. Con- sistent with the increased emphasis put on educational evaluation of ongoing innovations and programs, and in anticipation of continued capital investments to both enlarge and improve Tanzania's educational sector at key points, the project would provide support to the Government to carry out studies of a pre-investment, project monitoring, or evaluative character. The project would finance the equivalent of about six staff-years consultant services and cover a portion of operating costs incurred in the execution of specifically agreed studies, some of which could lead into future Bank Group-financed projects. Several study topics will be reviewed with the Government during negotiations. During negotiations, the Government gave assurances that by not later than March 31, 1981, it would provide the Association for its review and comment a satisfactory description of the topics, terms of reference, time- table and proposed staffing for the pre-investment and evaluation studies included in the project. 4.21 The topics for consideration are: (a) an evaluation of the imple- mentation and effects of the proposed project's contributions to primary education under varying conditions in 20 rural districts, especially the four  - 26 - least developed districts (para. 4.02); (b) a study to determine the effects of differential primary educational attainments on the efficiency or produc- tivity of farm households; (c) an evaluation of the efficiency of the existing post Form IV allocation system through a tracer study; (d) an identification of those factors at secondary schools which determine the amount of additional learning, with special reference to the sciences, mathematics and practical subjects; (e) the preparation of a secondary school map to lead to the growth of increasingly day-enrolled lower-cost, lower secondary schools; (f) a study of the necessary conditions for providing secondary schools with incomes from their own economic resources and activities, and their influences on learning attainments of students; (g) study to determine the necessary teacher and physical resource profiles and organization for small primary schools adapted to low population density areas; and (h) a survey of manpower require- ments to 1990 in a particular sector identified for priority development in the Five-Year Plan. In addition, the project also provides funds for monitor- ing and evaluation surveys of institutions financed in whole or part by earlier IDA projects and where these earlier investments are in operation. 4.22 Summary of Technical Assistance. About 112 man-years of expatriate specialist services (including 100 man-years of volunteer-type teachers) and 84 man-years of local or overseas fellowships are included in the proposed project. Specialists and fellowships would be selected in consultation with the Association and on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association. V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCIAL PLAN Project Cost 5.01 The total cost of the project is estimated at US$55.5 million equivalent including duties and taxes estimated at US$0.5 million equivalent. The estimated costs and foreign exchange components are given in Annex 1, T-9 and are summarized as follows:  - 27 - Estimated Cost by Project Item % of TSh. (million) US$ (million) Base Item Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost 1. Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment, Textbooks and Vehicles a. Primary Education 25.9 42.2 68.1 3.1 5.1 8.2 21 b. Secondary Education 59.1 72.9 132.0 7.1 8.8 15.9 41 c. Teacher Training 16.2 23.9 40.1 1.9 2.9 4.8 12 d. Supporting Services 17.6 22.4 40.0 2.1 2.7 4.8 12 Sub-total (1 a-d) 118.8 161.4 280.2 14.2 19.5 33.7 86 2. Technical Assistance 2.4 21.4 23.8 0.3 2.6 2.9 7 3. R&D and Training 1.9 2.8 4.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 1 4. Professional Services 4.3 6.4 10.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 3 (Architectural/Engineering) 5. Pre-investment Studies, Monoitoring and Evaluation 0.8 1.3 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1 6. Project Administration-/ 4.5 1.1 5.6 0.6 0.1 0.7 2 Total Baseline Costs (1-6) (April 1980) 132.7 194.4 327.1 15.9 23.5 39.4 100 7. Contingencies a. Physical (8%) 11.5 13.9 25.4 1.4 1.7 3.1 b. Price Increase (31%) 48.4 59.7 108.1 5.9 7.1 13.0 Sub-total: (41%) 59.9 73.6 133.5 7.3 8.8 16.1 Total Project Cost (1-7) 192.6 268.0 460.6 23.2 32.3 55.5 Of which taxes 4.2 - 4.2 0.5 - 0.5 1/ Includes equipment and vehicles.  - 28 - 5.02 Cost Estimates. Costs for civil works, furniture, equipment and vehicles are based on, inter alia results of recent competitive bidding and contract awards in the Fifth Education Project (Credit 607-TA). Civil works costs for new facilities for primary schools are based on a simplified design benefitting from actual experience with an ongoing primary school construction program. Average construction unit costs per square meter, based upon exchange rates reflecting the scarcity of foreign exchange, are US$55 for primary school buildings and US$225 for secondary. Unit cost for academic/communal areas per student place for primary school is US$95 and for a new secondary school is US$2,200. These costs are reasonable in com- parison with other African countries. About 35 percent of construction costs of primary schools is for staff housing and about 23 percent for secondary schools. Provision for staff housing is deemed essential to attract qualified teachers to rural areas and is in accordance with Government policy. Schedules of accommodation are functional and appropriate for educational objectives. Technical assistance is estimated, on an average, at US$50,000 per man-year for expatriates recruited abroad and about US$30,000 if locally recruited. Volunteer-type teachers recruited from bilateral agencies are estimated to cost US$12,000 per man-year. 5.03 Customs Duties and Taxes. The Tanzania Government grants customs and tax exemption for items imported directly for educational purposes. However, some of the materials to be used in the construction of the proposed institutions could be acquired on the local market, and thus be subject to customs duties and/or taxes estimated at US$0.5 million equivalent. 5.04 Contingency Allowances. For physical increases, 10 percent has been a,dded to the base cost of civil works and professional services, and 5 percent to all other components of the project. Price increases from the base cost date (April 1980) have been applied in accordance with Annex 1, T-9 at the following rates: 1980 1981 1982 1983-85 1986 Foreign 10.5% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Local 15% 15% 13% 11% 10% Estimated price increases are based upon an annual increase in international prices following Bank Group Staff guidelines and local prices as obtained from the PIU and Consultants' firms in Tanzania. 5.05 Foreign Exchange Component. The foreign exchange component, estimated at US$32.3 million equivalent or 59 percent of the total project cost net of taxes has been calculated as follows: (a) civil works and furnituire, 45 percent; (b) equipment, textbooks and vehicles and technical assistance, 90 percent; (c) R&D, training, studies, and professional services, 60 percent; and (d) project administration, 20 percent. The foreign exchange component is reasonable, taking into account that most equipment and a high percentage of building materials will be imported,and taking into considera- tion the recent increases in cost of fuel, inter alia.  - 29 - Financial Plan 5.06 The project is to be jointly financed between DANIDA and IDA, and administered by the Bank Group. Finalization of the co-financing arrangement between the Government, DANIDA, and IDA would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed project. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$55.5 million equivalent,of which DANIDA is to provide US$20.0 million equivalent and IDA US$25.0 million, or about 82 percent of the total project costs net of taxes as follows: US$ million External Govern- 1 2 Financing Category ment DANIDA IDA 1 + 2 Total 1. Civil Works 2.88 8.00 10.00 18.00 20.88 2. Furniture, Equipment, Textbooks and Vehicles 2.94 4.50 5.50 10.00 12.94 3. Technical Assistance 0.27 1.20 1.40 2.60 2.87 4. R&D, Training and Studies 0.12 0.31 0.39 0.70 0.82 5. Professional Services (A/E) 0.39 0.40 0.50 0.90 1.29 6. Project Administration 0.51 0.05 0.06 0.11 0.62 7. Unallocated 3.39 5.54 7.15 12.69 16.08 Total 10.50 20.00 25.00 45.00 55.50 of which taxes: 0.50 0.50 5.07 Recurrent Expenditures. In any year during project implementation, the maximum Government capital contribution to the project, inclusive of taxes is not expected to exceed US$1.5 million equivalent. This figure is 0.2 percent of the 1978/79 development budget of Tanzania or about 2.7 percent of the educational capital budget. Recurrent costs generated by the project are estimated at about US$1.36 million p.a. When the project is fully operative, this would be equivalent to about 0.5 percent of the Govern- ment's projected recurrent budget for education by 1985/86 and 22 percent of the net increase in the budget from 1978/79 to 1985/86 (Annex 1, T-8). VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENTS Implementation 6.01 The project would be implemented in about six years after Credit effectiveness, including six months for completion of payments and withdrawals  - 30 - (Annex 1, T-10). The project is expected to be completed by March 31, 1986 with a proposed Closing Date of September 30, 1986. 6.02 Administration. The proposed project would be administered by the PIU under the MOE and by the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) under the Prime Ministier's Office (PMO), in Dar-es-Salaam. 6.03 The PIU, would be responsible for implementation of all project components except those for the primary school program, which would be adminis- tered by the PCU. The PIU is an administrative and architectural unit estab- lished for the implementation of five previous education projects assisted by the Bank Group, as well as other investment programs, from different donors, such as: the African Development Bank; DANIDA; Germany (FRD); Netherlands; NORAD; Russia; SIDA; and UNDP. The PIU has been institutionalized and is performing well and is presently staffed with about 45 professionals and adequate supporting staff. The Unit is receiving major technical assistance, from DANIDA, in particular. The Government has recently concluded an agreement whereby the ongoing DANIDA technical assistance program, including the contri- bution of local staff training, and the establishment of maintenance units will be extended with the support of about 55 man-years of assistance, which cost is not part of the Project. DANIDA's extended technical assistance programn will cover the implementation period of the proposed Project. The Governrment has given assurances to DANIDA that the local counterpart staff assigned to the PIU will be maintained throughout the project implementation period. 6.04 The PCU (previously called Executive Unit) established for implement- ing the VMT program in the Fifth Education Project (Credit 607-TA), would be responsible for implementing the primary school component (about 20 percent of total project cost). The PCU in association with regional and district administrations would carry out all aspects of implementation of this compo- nent. Furniture and equipment lists prepared by the PIU would be used for procurement by the PCU in the primary school component. 6.05 Reporting and Project Completineport. Semi-annual reports on. implementation progress would be submitted by the PIU and PCU to the Associa- tion for review within one month after the periods ending on March 31 and September 30. No later than six months after the Credit Closing Date, the PIU with PCU's assistance would provide the Association with a report evaluating the execution, initial operations, costs and benefits of the proposed project, performance of the Government and the Bank and lessons learned during project implementation. 6.06 Design and Construction. The primary school facilities, implemented by the PCU, would be based on existing standardized designs developed under ongoing primary school construction programs. The construction of the facil- ities would be under the direction of the District Development Director (DDD) for each of the four selected districts who would award contracts for the  - 31 - construction either to: (a) small rural contractors; or (b) local Fundis 1/ located in the village; or (c) District Rural Construction Units (RCU); or (d) Ministry of Works district division's work force; or (e) a combination thereof. The DDD would submit detailed building costs (labor, materials, transportation and overhead) through the PCU to an appointed quantity surveyor, whose evalua- tion will be the basis for award of contract. The DDD offices would arrange for the purchases of all building materials, and ensure timely delivery of materials to building sites. The DDDs will sign the contracts and arraage for all necessary payments. Actual contract expenditures are to be documented through the use of local purchase orders, requisition notes and vouchers. The supervision of construction of the primary school programs will be the respon- sibility of the DDD's office. In order to have this work carried out effi- ciently, a building supervisor team would be organized in each of the four selected districts. Each team will be headed by two volunteer building technicians each having local counterparts. The teams will also help the local "entrepreneurs" on building sites, which includes, inter alia, opera- tional and management assistance, and when required, construction equipment. During negotiations the Government gave an assurance that qualified building supervision technicians will be assigned to appropriate DDD's offices in the four districts in accordance with the implementation schedule (Annex 1, Table 10). 6.07 Other facilities, implemented by the PIU, consisting of the secondary schools would be based on standardized designs developed under the Fourth and Fifth Education Projects (Credits 371-TA and 607-TA). Facilities for the teacher training colleges (TTC), the TES apd NEC would be designed and supervised by the PIU. 6.08 Professional Services (AlE). The architectural, engineering, procurement and building supervision services provided by the PIU would not be included in the project costs. However, in anticipation of an increased workload of PIU because of new obligations to other investment programs, it is expected that it may be necessary to call upon locally established consul- tants for architectural and engineering servicss to assist in preparing tender documents on selected components. Approximately US$1.3 million equivalent is provided in the project costs for such services. These consultants would be selected and commissioned on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank Group and would be under the technical direction of the PIU. 6.09 Site Selection. Location of primary schools would be based upon agreed criteria (para. 4.04). Sites already selected for the two new secondary schools and for the TTC, the TES and the NES are satisfactory.Land would be provided free of cost to the project. 6.10 Building Industry. The construction industry in Tanzania consist of small or medium-sized family firms which operate at low levels of capacity. There is only one public company in operation, however, the Ministry of Works 1/ "Fundi" (singular) is the Swahili term for local skilled craftsmen or artisans.  - 32 - is in the process of establishing a number of Regional Building Construction Units (presently the units are working in Dar-es-Salaam, Arusha and Dodoma Regions only). Self-help construction is normally used in all rural dis- tricts, however, this approach has not been successful in some of the districts in the Arusha and Lindi Regions. The self-help construct_or is in msost cases carried out by villagers with support from Fundis. Self-help construction experience from Community Education Centers in the Fourth Education Project (Credit 371-TA) and housing scheme for the VMT program in ,he Fifth Education Project (Credit 607-TA), indicate that heavy reliance on self-help method of construction exclusively could create significant delays in implementation; as a result, inter alia, the primary schools included in the project are to be constructed by means other than self-help (para. 6.06). The major constraints in the building industry in Tanzania are: (a) contractors' difficulties in obtaining local bank credit; (b) long delays in receivnmg pa-ments for work done; (c) shortage of skilled manpower and qualified site f7-)remni and engi- neers; (d) lack of available building materials, transportatin facilities and spare parts for machinery. The PIU has been successful f re 'ir tie delays in payments due, but other problems still persist. At negotiations, the Government provided assurances that contractors would be permitted to directly import essential building materials, equipment and spare parts necessary to carry out work included in the proposed project. Procurement 6.11 Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment, textbooks and vehicles totalling about US$26.0 million equivalent including contingencies, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with the Bank Group's gu#elines for procurement, except as follows: (a) construction of primary schools and civil works contracts estimated to cost less than US$300,000 equivalent each (estimated at US$2.5 million); (b) furniture, equipment, textbooks and vehicles contracts each costing less than US$100,000 equivalent (estimated at US$2.1 million); and (c) local transpor- tation services for furniture and equipment (estimated at US$1.3 million). The primary schools would be constructed by various methods as described :Ln para.6.06 which due to their small size and remote rural location are unlikely to interest any construction firms. Based on past experience, these methods proposed are deemed the most economic and efficient in carrying out the work. Exceptions to ICB would be tendered by competitive bidding and advertised locally in accordance with local procedures acceptable to the Bank Group. 6.12 Qualified domestic building contractors will be allowed a preferen- tial margin of 7.5 percent over bid prices of competing foreign contractors, and domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment will be allowed a preference of 15 percent of the existing rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers. 6.13 Sketch design, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture2 equipment and textbooks, including proposed grouping, will be reviewed by the Bank G-roup. Items will be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competitive bidding and to enable bulk procurement. Review of tender evalua- tion documents by the Bank Group prior to award will be required only for contracts above US$300,000 equivalent each for civil works and US$100,000 equivaLent each for construction materials, furniture, equipment and vehicles.  - 33 - Disbursements 6.14 Disbursements (Annex 1, T-ll) would be on the basis of: (a) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 75 percent of local expenditures for civil works; (b) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 85 percent of local expendi- tures for equipment, furniture, vehicles and textbooks; (c) 100 percent of foreign and 85 percent of local expenditures for technical assistance, profes- sional services, research and development, training and studies; and (d) 20 percent of local expenditures for project administration. Disbursements from the IDA Credit and DANIDA grant would be made pro rata in 5:4 ratio of finan- cing. 6.15 Disbursements would be fully documented except for local expenditures for: (a) civil works by force account; (b) operational costs; and (c) project administration. Disbursements for these components would be made against statements of expenditure prepared by the PIU and PCU, the documentation for which is not submitted to the Association but retained by the Borrower for review during project supervision. Based upon experience in previous education projects, the PIU and PCU have satisfactory institutional capacities to use the statement of expenditure procedure. 6.16 Auditing would be required on an annual basis for all expenditures financed under this project, with particular emphasis on work carried out by department forces (force account), operational expenses for project adminis- tration and local transportation expenses of construction materials, furniture and equipment to school sites. Auditing would be performed by auditors acceptable to the Bank Group applying satisfactory auditing procedure. Audit reports should be submitted to the Association within twelve months following the end of the Borrower's fiscal year. VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits 7.01 At both primary and secondary levels the project would increase access to education for children from remote and educationally underprivileged areas, and would improve the quality, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the school system. According to recent studies in neighboring countries, investments in primary and secondary education typically bring high social rates of return. Studies of social selection in education in neighboring countries also reveal a remarkably high representation of low income groups in schools, even without the deliberate geographical quota allocations which Tanzania uses. At the primary level the project would supply 21,000 new places and improve about another 448,000 places. At the secondary level the project would provide about 2,760 new secondary schools places (upper and lower), make improvements to another 1,860, and provide teachers for about 5,000 students per annum. The project target population in primary education would be those who would otherwise be most likely to remain at the margins of  - 34 - the national education system. The additional science and mathematics gra- duates from Form VI who would be made possible by the project would be most likely to fill vacancies either in specialized training or further education or in direct employment. 7.02 The projects' assistance to institution building and educational quality services such as CURE, NEC and TES will indirectly raise the standards of learning for virtually all students in the education system below univer- sity level. Finally, the provision of new, and the improvement of existing teacher training facilities in Zanzibar would represent the first Bank Group assistance to that part of Tanzania. Risks 7.03 Most of the project components carry minimum risks since the agencies responsible for project implementation possess the requisite capability, and since major risks have been avoided in the project design. The construction of new primary school buildings will deliberately avoid the unreliability of community self-help. The main uncertainty for construction by small private contractors derives from seasonal disruptions to transportation, but this can be reduced by advance planning and supervision of delivery of building materials to sites by the PIU and PCU which will be facilitated by the tech- nical assistance provided to the four concerned Districts. The chief risk applying to the secondary school components lies in the uncertain supply of mathematics and science teachers. The project will minimize this problem by temporarily providing teachers, but steps need to be taken to reduce erosion from the existing teaching stock resulting from large-scale transfer- ring out to active teaching. The Government is to provide the Association with a plan to remedy teacher shortages in the subjects mentioned (para. 4.13). VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8.01 During negotiations, agreements were reached with the Government on the following points: (a) the selection of village locations for new primary school facilities in four districts (para. 4.04) and the selection of an additional 16 districts to receive primary school equipment and furniture (para. 4.07); (b) the recruitment of volunteer expatriate teachers and training of local teachers of secondary school science and mathematics (para. 4.12), official secondary schools class sizes (para. 4.13), and on the use of living accommodation in teacher training colleges in Zanzibar (para. 4.15);  - 35 - (c) pre-investment and evaluation studies (paras. 4.20 and 4.21), local and expatriate staff for the PIU (para. 6.03), the employment of building supervisors in the four districts (para. 6.06), the importation of building materials and spare parts (para. 6.10) and submission of semi-annual progress reports (para. 6.05). 8.02 Finalization of the cofinancing arrangements between the Govern- ment, DANIDA and the Association, would be a condition of effectiveness (para. 5.06). 8.03 Subject to the provisions in para. 8.01 above, the project is suitable as a basis for a Credit of US$25 million equivalent to the United Republic of Tanzania on standard IDA terms. Funds allocated for technical assistance, if not utilized for the purpose intended, would be subject to cancellation.  REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT Total Manpower Requirement by Skill Cate&ory 1975-1990 1975-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 A B C A B C AC 1. Agriculture 240 160 1,420 140 90 820 200 130 1,190 2. Mining 20 80 8 30 170 8 30 170 3. Manufacture 250 500 7,600 220 800 6,570 370 750 11,280 3. MnUtltres 20 110 2,720 40 230 3,850 70 400 6,600 5. Construction 80 220 1,790 200 520 4,300 170 1,090 9,110 6. Commerce 90 500 4,900 50- 270 4,010 100 510 7,730 7, Transport & Comm. 130 920 6,560 170 910 6,480 300 1,590 11,30a, 8. Finance 180 330 680 40 250 820 80 440 1,437 9. Public Administration 2,970 29,980 19,970 2,480 15,020 25,100 3,150 19,080 31,870 10. Total Requirement Due 3,960 32,730 45,720 3,348 18,120 51,950 4,148 24,020 80,680 11. Existing Stock 7,806 23,994 93,365 17,234 62,850 153,224 20,582 80,970 205,174 12. Current Vacancies 3,550 5,281 10,806 13. Non-citizens 1,198 845 3,3 2 14. TOTAL 17,234 62,850 153A224 20,582 2514___ 3FYP Manpower Plan 15. Total including existing stock 16,086 52,574 152,255 -of which - 16. Existing stock 7,806 23,994 93,365 'A 17. Difference 14-16 1,148 10276 969 Source: Bank Group staff, and Third Five-Year Manpower Plan.  - 37 - REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Table 2 SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT Meeting Manpower Needs for the Modern Sector 1975-1990 1975-19Rn 1981-1985 1986-1990 Projected Manpower Requirements SKILL A 7.1 a) Due to Growth 3,960 3,348 4,148 b) Vacancies 3,550 3,643 2,916 Replacement of Expatriates 1,918 - a/ Attrition 1/ 310 690 820 TOTAL 9,738 7,681 7,884 Output of Universities 4,212 2/ 4,620 2/ 5,544 3 Deficit/Surplus 5,526 - 3,061 - 2,340 SKILL B Projected Manpower Requirements 7.2 Duie to Growth 32,730 18,120 24,020 Current Vacancies 5,281 3,704 3,622 Noncitizens ! - a/ Attrition 960 2,520 3,240 TOTAL 32,971 24,344 30,882 Available Supply 4/ from Training List ~ 1972--20,322 24,295 Deficit/Surplus _19,243 _ 4,022 - 6,587 SKILL C Projected Manpower Requirements 7.3 Due to Growth 45,724 51,950 80,680 Current Vacancies 10,806 3,067 3,675 Noncitizens - a/ Attrition 3,730 8,210 11,430 TOTAL 63i5R9 63,227 95,785 Available Supply 23,5005/ 25 8505/ 51 7005/ -40,G89 - 37,377 - 44,085 Deficit/Surplus 1/ Estimate of number retiring, dying or resigning. The assumed rate is 4% of existing stock at the beginning of each period. 2/ Calculated from Manpower Report to President 1976, 1977 and full-time undergraduate Tanzanian students enrolled 1970/71-1978/79. Planning Unit, University of Dar es Salaam, April 1979. 3/ Based on 20% growth of enrollment for 1984 due to increased output from Form VI. 4/ 1975-77 figures were actuals. 1978-80 calculated from opportunities available to Form VI school leavers. 5/ Calculated from output of In-service training Institutes for C Category plus number of secondary school leavers seeking direct employment. a/ Vacancies include expatriates. ,Source: Bank Group staff, Tanzania Ministry of Manpower Development and University of Dar-es-Salaam Planning Unit.  REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT Projected Opportunities for Form VI School Leavers 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 University, Direct Entry 194 194 204 232 237 237 237 536 536 Teacher Training 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 Inservice Training 487 487 487 487 487 487 487 487 487 Public Sector Vacancies 1,986 1986 1,986 1,986 1,986 1,986 1,986 1,986 (including National Service) Demand 3,067 3,067 3,077 3,105 3,110 3,110 3,110 3,409 3,409 X Form VI enrollment given 2,222 2,247 2,233 2,247 2,303 2,302 2,303 2,303 2,828 current class size 1 Deficit/Surplus (-1+) -845 -820 -824 -858 -807 -807 -807 -1,106 -581 Form VI if class size -686 -161 increased to 30 by 1985 N.B. -Existing vacancies in 1978/79 for employment and in-service training would remain constant. First year intake into College of National Education would be at 1978/79 level. -Direct entry into university will rise from current 97% of total Form V output to 11% by 1981/82 to 20% by 1985/86 as a result of increase in number of qualified science students due to Seventh Education Project. 1/ These figures do not discount for the numbers of students who fail to qualify finally in critically short subjects. Source: IBRD World Bank staff estimates WI-  COMPARATIVE EDIUCATION INDICATORS Tabla 4 Page 1 of 2 DECEMBER 18, 19791 IMP/ : G. NP :% TOTAL.% OF PUBLIC :: PRI. :AV.PRI. 1 1 1001 :CAPITA: OEVOTED:PUBLIC :EDUCATION :LITER- :PRI. :COMPLE- :STU- :SCH.TEACH:PROGRESS-: SEC. (STIO- (HIGHER: AT I TO EDU4. EXP. RECURRENT A4Y :ENROLLITION :DENTS:SALART IN:108 RATP :ENROLL(00ENT9:FN0L73. 'MARKET: (PU8LIC:DIEVOTEOj:EXP ALLOCATED: RATE :RAJ1O :RATE PORI.PER :RELATION tFROM PRI,:RATIO (PER :R9ri0 POP. :PRICES: EXP. TO 1 TOt HZ% OP I NET PRI.SCH. :TEACH: TO GNP/ :TO SEC. INET :TEACH- OROSS: YR:MILLS,: (US$): ONLY) 1EDOU. :PRI. SEC. HI.:ADULTS): (X) :CYCLEI'/.:ER 1 CAP'ITA I (X 1 %) :ER 1(X)I A0L1IAS) 74 7.5G 5,620G 5.39 S,5EY 24T 519 159 99 98 930 260- 2.00, 9911 71D 19)' 16,85Y CANADA 77 27.8 7.135 7.3 16.7 30 37 26 98 99 97 19 2.0 99 90 IS 16,100 GERMANY F.REP.75 61,8 6,670 5.0 10.2 31EY 644* 26EY 99 90 99 23E9 ... 999 84Y 2"C 70,76T JAPAN 75 111.6 4,4050 4.30 20.7E 4009 37U9 1109 99 990 99C 25 2.0E8 99C 9597 20C 74.69?9 NETHERLANDS 75~~~ 13.7 0,425 9.4 22.41, 21 39 21 99 95 95 29 2,0 97 80 20 12,5 NEW ZEALAND 73 3,10 4,2000 11.2 .. 39 24 29 99 99 99 26 .. 99E 6? 19 24.) N04 76 40903 72 1, 4 24 15 99 99 94 6 . 990 62, 11 11.10 'IWOOFO 76 8.7 8150 6.6 14.0 23 29 12 99 99 99 16 ,., 909 851" 13 30 .00)l 3.6. ~~~~~75 56:0 3,780 7,1 13.9 26 41* 18 99 99 .. 24 2,0 ., 69 (7 21,000 (.7,4, 76 214,6 7,950 5,~~~~~~~~ ~~4 15,8 . 72* 28 99P 99 9 2 ,.99 93 1 I 714.00 GREECt 26 9~.1 2,590 2,6 10.4 37Y 26Y 21Y 836 99 820, 31 2.0 700 80x 22 15, IRELAND 74 3.576200 t5.1 1290 439 1 149 98 10899 99A 35 . 95A 659 19 17,41Y 7061))4 7 9. 1,5 36 7.4 41 21 15 708 8 60* 19 20 7* 3 7 0 k[039014 /5 21 .2 1,'240 4.0 6.4 36 19 13 98 101 .. 1 98 49 27' I 0.00l .,P0I0 24 ~~~~35'.8 2,901) 2.4 10.20 499 22 150 944 16 . 35 .. ,. 7897 S 1 H69 A41 1.1 15 7) 17.3/ II1(;H 24 14:3FY 341 76r 21r .3 7 86 45 38 40.0 5 31 22X.0 00010 "~~~~ ~~4 3 " 80 . N360 47 730 SOD 110 443 708 539 25.08 438 19 3 074Y 00100960N ,08 9 40 6.0 770 52 23 14 35 800 70 31 5.0 48 34 22, 2. 00 0)IJ"L 1I[If 78 4.1 110 7. 72.14 469, 331, 79 25 730 47 32 9. 22 3 17 1. 1:89) OGON ~~~~~~ ~~~~~4 3.2 79. 33 43 20 - 60 47 52 40 20 90 24 0.9019 l2.A.v. ~~~ ~~74 1 OF 00 3, 110 12.01 s)19 . 9XYY 25 699 is . 1 809 '2709 0. , <890 0 3,1) 10.04.(~ O 78 521 29689 30 6089 100 Ft 2989 30 0,0189 <ONE,11111) ~~~1." 51OP 6.0 (93 40 32 21 5' 1330 63 63 60 4 33 22 3.48 LOYOP) i8 03 5.98 . 30 32 25 44 76 80 31I . .. 79 45 211 12.0 0 TI7H)P1A 01 2.4C 1'2.5 i44 31" 14C 10O 26 .. 50, ... 63 9 30 .. A' I)N 24 0 7 .400 5.00 20.6) 25 0 10 ... 10 0 460 ,0 190 319 11 029 E1091)A 0 , 7 3. 1.5 4 25 6 1 27 90 32 . 92 93XY 'N60 F47'9 0 I 9.71 439 72 07 . 6y039 678 319 , 14)) 3500 16C9 1.099 01,10)9 76 ~~~~~4. 2 HO 4.9F. 3 31 30 ... 309 64 45 1.0 86 130 400 II1 1000 7)1411 I 2' 7.01 6810o 6.0 3. 33 46 13 99 50 816 43 7.0 47 1763 '0.' I.6~49 "I955 76 3 01 1'4) '9 76. 6/ 23 0 40 809 60' 34 4.0 3I0 6 27 1.0 I ~ I0)1 H ' ". 060 220 730 49 t8 20 40 85 1 52 .08 8 10 I1410b - 6f1) . 01 2.4 13.7 27 07 20 7 3 58 .. 35 2.0 ... 12.258IAY MADAGASCAR 0 4 ? 0 24.0I 531 20 09 50 90X 33 44 6. 38 14X Pi 1.70 99,901 0 7.2 0.3 ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~40 1 72 5 56 2 61 50 9 59 2 0.47 04 9SF 4.20 33. OF 42) 3 /F 090 10 20.F 9 9.SF 00)- 69 .1. H8110)99010 CF-L1.3 4.1 2009 . . 104 709 .. 72 . . 0 4 HA11 RIII 0J 75 0 ~ 1. 655 4.7 72.1 -50~ 26 6 BOC1 94 99 24 4. 90 45 " 5 9001( 'S ..)57 239R 48R 13028H 650 33 40 ,. 33 179 2? 4,00 0)61019 7~~~~4 7OF0 34S~F 9.109D 2~4.20 2 39 169 429 .. . 4999 ... 349 CY .. lox 109 0 C0y 0,489 08090 PII.1,2.03 l 7 ,3: 10(71 NCII I o 5.0 230 42130 1 372 . 49 10.0 202 1,7 1098L)4 0 5.0 12.0 69 31 '1 654"2399 00 27012.0 26 3O430.10 SWO/ILA 7 I I 6. 1) 22 3 3 3 6, 90 4 2 40 4 30 70 2.0 19478808 79 07.1 "30 6,69~~~~~~~~~~ 15,8 43 19 17 660, 96834X. 2U 03 09E5AL5 Nr1~ O 205 5.5 765 377 40 58 6.0F 02 44 2.0 10311 207. 33 37 47 1 4 6. 31 04 7)1 .0 9I0 0 AL" 5 6.0 2.0 69 3120 860X 44 42 70 41 13 7 .0 93804A 77 IJ. 44'0 6.0 17.96 548 2' 076 80 49 3,37 96 2 35 9998450).D 76 7.2 1,620 9. 121 43 31 10 99 06 9X 49 51 3.0S 99 949 20)7 r70118 010', I7 2.7 611 .,) 727 57) 75) 29 898 1999 678 298 2.0 58 450 258 1715 2387i25955 . 11. ......... 90,L 99 9 2240 1 2. 98 65 1 15.00 'OIN1006FF]? 4.6 790 .0 3. 42 24 2 5) 80 i. 54 6.0 3 7 24 700 00)81 2 ,1 05) 19 160 5 3 14 4 4 2 37 3.0 69 8 72 4,9 1811 2Y71TA 4.7 ILI 20 3. 0,7 Al I1 II29 20 1 6 . 7 4 . . 1)0000699 71, 2.90 4007 4.25 19.99 79155 (911 53 20 30 35 3.0 68 11 12 4.00~~~~~~~~~~~~~2 41 X IO AIRE12 76 ". 10769 116.2( 37 33 22 86 9 42 39 4. 4 6 5 75 900170 75 50.9 1.050 3.000 (2,001) SlY 269 129 76 1209 3) 46 3.0 63 3590 739 9,9709~16 3 I .5 '9190410 746 ., 002 2; 14 .2 6) IT 13 573 6 so2 37 2.0 93 122i70 101909 I . 2 I. 1,20145 4,5 -14.1:~ 49 312 20 97 996X 991 30I 3. 49 62x 24 I~ C0UBA1 76 9, 3)5 5, I/SF 96.. 3 128 291' 24 2.P 98 . 4 181' .0 810M8711 /5F ~ 11001 ,,300 5.0 ' 12. 474 700 3 64 860 . .,7 27 54, 760 254 6.008 L01 /5, 1AD1. .3 I05 4053 9 '769 2)9 109 57 6 , B199 . 359 41 , 49 , .2 16,57 1:0, 19810 24 "4.30 6500 3,30~~~~~~~~9 1620 4409 270 19 3 409 -6 339 4.0 690 39 14 6,7 60190 75MA.33 /000 ./ // .... 6 00 8 I 380 14L (9 000008 24 SOP 'II)',L. 90 1.1 2 3 14 93 2 139 33 6,0 13 62 74 100 P409579 24 2.1 6700 1.0 110 72 1 22 01 92 26 35 0 31. 658 1 12 500 F11 75N16,5A1 I1400 4.2G' 21.20 40 229 5159 / 1909 3 30 30 70 409 219 14,1 TRIN7111 T 73 12.30 .740 4.6 19. 0 280351 77 9) 9, 33 3,4 49, 63 24. 2,..  - 40- COMPARATIVE E2uCNTTOW &NDICATORS (CONTID) MOlE!X 1 Table 4 Pasge 2 f,. DECEMBER 18, 1979 GNP/ % GNFE :% TOTALV.: OF PUBLIC 1 FRI, :AV,PRI. .S IEC ICAPITA: DEVOTEDIPUBLIC :EDUCATION :LITER- IFRI. ICML- :STU)- :C,ECIRSCSISC S'-IIK I AT I TO EDUJ.I EXP, RECURRENT lACY IENROLLITION IDENTSISALARY INIION RATE :ENROLL:IENTSIENRO[ L :MARKET. (F'UBL.IC:DEVOTED:EXF ALLOCATEI') RATE :RATIO I.RATE FORIPER :RELATION :PROM PRI. IRATIO IPER :RATIO POPr. FPR T.C E S ) PXP. TO I TO: 12% OF : NET :PRI.SCH. :TEACHI TO GNP/ 'ITO SEC. NET :TEACH- GROSS: YRN:MILL_S.I 2US$): ONLY) EDU). IP'RI, SEC. HI,:ADULTS)I (%) :CYCLE(%)I.ER CAPITA ::5 3 ER () (1) II (2) I(3) I(4) I 5 6 : (7) 1(8) 1 9)I(1) (11) 1(12) 1.(13) 1(14) ASIA AND OCEANIA AFOHANISTAN 77M 14.3 1800 1.8 11,6 47 19 10 12 29X 69 37 3.00 62 ex 2.7 1.00 BANGLADESH 73 80.4G 900 1.*2 20.2 44Y 22Y 21Y 23D 56X ... 48D .,.,. ... 23X1' 20 .. CHINA(TAIWAN) 73 16,30 1,0500 3.2 14,0 28 41 22 82 98C 94 40 14.0 84 61C 26 20.OOC INDIA 75 620,40 1400 2,6VY ... ...... 298 65XY ... 43A ... .., 299? 20AY 2.34EY INDONESIA 76 130.90 2800 3.0 11.0 26 32 15 60B 79EX 43E 30E 2,0 52E 19FX 14E 2,00 IRAN 73 33.60 2,0600 3.3 12.6 5OB lAB 12B s0 77 74A 32 5.08 BOA 24 32 4,32CY IRAP 75 11,50 1,3908 6.7C 16.3DR....... 26C 93XY ... 22 ... ... 35X? 26C 8,47Y JORDAN 77 2.3 997 4.5K 7.1K 25R SOR 3R 70 97X 81 32 2.0 91 68 22 10.60 KOREA 78 37.0 1,242 2.8 17.5 35 29 36 93 102X 94 49 2.9 91 60 45 18.00 L.EBANON 72 3.20 1,0700 3.5 18.0 39 40 10 68 86 65 19 2.0 63 26') 25 23,00 MALAYSIA 76 12.6 860 6,7 26.0 42 34 10 60C 90 93 32 3,7 78 48 28 3.00 NEPAL 76 12,6F IIOP 1.1 10,0 29 20 41 19 59 28 31 2.3 64 14 24 0.8 OMAN 72 O.8F 2,300F l,7N 3.8 96 - - 20 249 99 27F 7.0 ... 0.49 9 .. PAKISTAN 75 71.30 1808 1.6 16.2 40 20 18 21 479 50 39 2.0 . .. 17X 18 6.00 P'AFOA N.G. 75 2.80 4500 5,6 16.1 38 16 24 32 57? 73P 31 11.0 90 12X? 24 0.90? F'HILIPPINES 74 43.20 4200 2.0 14,9 73 15 12 87 1049 .. . 34 15.0 ... 46X ... 21.00 SINGAPORE 74 2.30 2,5808 2.7Y 9.2Y 39Y 39? 17Y 75A 1099? 72A 31Y ,4. 99A 449? 24 7.68Y SYRIIA 70 7.60 8300 3.6 6.9 39 20 26 03 89 70 35 2.0 92 45 21 12.00 THAILAND, 77 44.1 410 4.0'V 20.0 05 30 11 84P 83 30 35 5,OU 70 28 25 3.00 TURKEY 73 40,90 1,0100 5,6CY 20.6CY ..... .,.. ,.. 85Y . .. 34Y .:. ... 24? 27DY9 5.83Y YEMEN 73 5,40 3000 0.5 4.0 4SF 21F' 23P 10 159 18 36 5,0 70 29 19 0.05BY YEMEN P.D.R. 76 1,7 280 6,6 . .. 07 28 8 20 899 48 30 0.0 94 219 24 0,10 SUMMARY P0K DEVELOPING COUINTRIES: NUMBER OP COUNTRIES? 95 92 88 87 86 89 96 76 97 71 79 95 93 86 RANGE' (0.5- (3.8- (21- (8- (2- (0- (13- (13- (16- (1.5- (8- (.4- (9- (.01- 12.0 2 36.0) 96 ) 72) 50) 99) 1339) 99) 69) 20.0 ) 99) 95 2 45) 30.1) OUARTILES:UPPER 15,9 21.2 49 35 22 83 98 86 42 6 91 48 25 11.0 MEDIAN: 4.2 16.0 42 26 18 03 82 63 34 4 68 24 22 3.4 LOWER 1 3.0 12.4 33 21 13 23 56 32 29 2 41 11 18 1.0 SYMBOLS: ... DATUM UNAVAILABLE AM1970 OR BEFORE M=CURRENT P'RICES SOURCES: -MAGNITUDE NIL OR NEGLIGIBLE 8=1971 N=GDP---- Q UESTIONABLE C=1972 P=INCLUDING FOREIGN AID COLUMNS1l AND, 2 WORLD BANK ATLAS *INCLUJDES PART-TIME STUDENTS 0=1973 Q=CENTRAL GOVT. ONLY OR IBRD MISSIONS **COMBINED WITH PRIMARY E=1974 R=MINISTRY OF EDUCATION (MOE) ONLY 3 TO 14 IBRD MISSIONS **UNDER REVIEW F=1975 S=MOE AND, STATE GOVT. ONLY AND/OR UNESCO 0=1976 T=EXCLUDING CENTRAL GOVT. STATISTICAL H=1977 U=PUBLIC ONLY YEARBOOK K=1978 V=INCLUDING PRIVATE EXP'ENDIlTURE X=INCLUDING OVERAGED STUDENTS Y=UNESCO SOUJRCES COMPARATIVE EDUCATION DiATA ARE USEFUL IN THE EVALUATION OF VARIOUS EDIUCATION SYSTEMS AND ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE STAGES OF EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS COUNTRIES. HOWEVER.ON THE BASIS OF THE PRESENT DATA,CROSS-NATIONAL COMP'ARISON SHOULD BE APPROACHED WITH GREAT CAUTION. DATA PRESENTED, IN THE ABOVE TABLE HAVE BEEN COLLECTED, LARGELY BY THE BANK MISSIONS FROM GOVERNMENT SOURCES; THE REMAINDER ARE STAFF ESTIMATES OR DATA FROM UNESCO. EFFORTS HAVE 'BEEN MADE TO STANDiARDIZE DtEFINITIONS AND WITHIN LIMITS, TO CHECK THE ACCURACY OF THE DATA. NEVERTHELESS,SUCH DATA ARE STILL IMPERFECT IN SEVERAL RESPECTS AND THE BANK IS WORKING TO IMPROVE THEM PROGRESSIVELY ON THE OCCASION OF ITS OPERATIONAL WORK. IN THE USE OF THESE DATA, THE FOLLOWING GUALIFICATIONS SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND'. )1)'ED')CATION' AS DEFINEDt IN THE TABLE INCLUDiES ALL EDUCATION ANDI TRAINING, FORMAL ANDt HON-FORMAL; (2(1PRIMARY EDUCATION REFERS TO EDUCATION AT THE FIRST LEVEL AND 'SECGNDARY' EDUCATION REFERS TO ALL EDUCATION AT THE SECONDARY LEVEL REGARDLESS OF TYPE (E.G. GENERAL, TECHNICAL, AGRICULTURAL), (3>VLITERACY RATES(~COL.6) ARE OFTEN OBTAINED FROM COUNTRY CENSUSES. IN MANYCOUJNTRIES THEY ARE ONLY APPROXIMATIONS AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT AN? UNIFORM DEFINITION OF 'LITERATE' HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CONSISTENTLY; (4)'PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN EDUCATION'(COLS.3,4 AND 0) REFER TO ALL CAPITAL AND RECURRENT EXPENDITURES DEVOTED TO EDUCATION BY P'UBLIC AND, QUASI-PUBLIC AGENCIES; (0)'ENROLLMENT RATIOS'(COLS 7, 12 AND 14) REFER TO SCHOOL YEAR AND MEAN THE PERCENTAGE OF ELIGIBLE CHILDIREN ENROLLED FULL-TINE IN THE AFPROPRIATE SCHOOL, P'UBLIC ANt' PRIVATE BY LEVEL. THEY ARE OFTEN SUBJECT TO A WIDE MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE DEVELOPING COUINTRIES OWING TO VARIATION IN THE ACCURACY OF BASIC DATA(I.E. AGE-SPECIFIC POPULATION AND ENROLLMENTS). ENROLLMENT FIGURES FREQUENTLY ARE HIGHER THAN THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS ACTUALLY IN SCHOOL, OVERAGED STUDiENTS WHOSE INCLUSION IS INDICATED, B? FOOTNOTES ALSO CAN INFLATE THE RATIOS, *ET=125S3,0 PT=1,l 10=8.5 BYE #END SESSION 5390 ET=15119.0 PT=1.7 10=10.4 *USER = BCCEZX CHARGE = B30499CCEZ 11141124 12/19/79  I - 4 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA - MAINLAND SEVENTH EPitNTION PROJECT Priary School Enrollmnt Public and Priyte: 1970-79 Actuals, 1980-1991 Proiected 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 "977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Standard 1 172576 190091 208331 226071 231250 473067 506497 540497 906404 555550 581407 576523 583206 588377 598399 619412 658529 689515 722147 750916 774624 798803 Standard 2 152234 166590 182858 199119 221350 232395 427717 477614 566079 876763 548404 566178 561893 568179 573243 582910 603160 640903 671256 703025 731137 754345 Standard 3 141734 149305 161265 174328 204164 212416 240289 405833 499071 545809 840395 536730 546847 543019 548875 553790 563034 582373 618466 647943 678613 705854 Standard 4 138458 138246 144139 153169 186289 187258 202798 228240 411111 482626 528635 808853 527424 530541 526985 532454 537240 546113 564650 599292 628034 657770 Standard 5 88634 102608 116661 133300 169124 165253 179520 193590 236031 397450 469657 515413 783135 522125 518658 515166 520274 524962 533527 551387 584814 613050 Standard 6 68624 85367 101886 116593 154826 152426 161586 173904 198218 225281 377730 448369 492626 745305 504554 496635 493214 497962 502455 510591 527535 559279 Standard 7 65624 70302 88656 103807 152686 137965 155950 171785 181674 191125 217226 362158 431658 474840 715366 490983 479653 476214 480662 485001 492796 509009 Total 827924 902609 1003796 1106387 1320145 1572849 1874357 2194213 3000879 3274604 3563454 3814224 3926789 3972986 3986080 3791350 3855104 3958042 4093163 4248155 4417553 4598110 Note: Enrollment figures through 1979 were pusvided by the Ministry of National Education. Projected enrollments beyond 1979 were calculated as follows: 1. Standard 1 intake is set at 98.2X of the seven year old population projected forward from the 1978 census results as follows.- Seven Yeat Old Pop. Standard 1 Seven Year Old Pop. Standard 1 1980 570,000 559,740 1986 646,000 634,372 1981 564,000 553,848 1987 676,000 663,832 1982 571,000 560,722 1988 708,000 695,256 1983 576,000 565,632 1989 736,000 722 752 1984 586,000 575,452 1990 759,000 745,338 1985 607,000 596,074 1991 783,000 768,906 2. Then enrollment figurea for Standards 1-7 were calculated using the following pupil flow rates derived from a comparison of 1978 and 1979 enrollment figures (Table 16): Promotion Repetition Net Drop- Rate Rate out Rate SuD Standard 1 .954 .039 .007 1.0 Standard 2 .945 .021 .034 1.0 Standard 3 .948 .022 .030 1.0 Standard 4 .951 .023 .026 1.0 Standard 6 .941 .017 .0324 1.0 Standar,d 5 .941 .027 .032 1.0 Standard 7 .950 .017 .033 1.0 Source: World Bank staff and Ministry of National Education.  - 42 - ANNEX 1 Table 6 REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT Projection of Public and Private Secondary School Enrollments 1977-1990 (a) Public Secondary Schools 19771/ 1978 19792/ 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Form I 9,242 8,797 8,855 8,995 9,240 9,240 9,660 9,660 9,660 9,977 9,977 9,977 9,977 9,977 Form II 9,548 9,790 8,925 8,855 8,995 9,240 9,240 9,660 9,660 9,660 9,977 9,977- 9,977 9,977 Form III 9,755 9,703 9,790 8,925 8,855 8,995 9,240 9,240 9,660 9,660 9,660 9,977 9,977 9,977 Form IV 9.338 9.852 9.703 9.790 8.925 8.855 8.995 9.240 9.240 9.660 9.660 9.660 9.977 9.977 tSub Ital 37,883 37,872 37,273 36,565 36,015 36,330 37,135 37,800 38,220 38,957 39,274 39,591 39,908 39,908 Form V 2,125 2,167 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,625 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 Form VI 1.962 2.018 2.050 2.050 2.050 2,100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,625 3.150 3,150 3,150 3.150 Sub Total 4,087 4,185 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,725 5,775 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 I - IV 41,970 42,057 41,373 40,665 40,115 40,530 41,335 42,000 42,945 44,732 45,574 45,891 46,208 46,208 (b) Private Secondary Schools 19771/ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Form I 6,590 6,839 7,454 8,125 8,856 9,653 10,522 11,469 12,501 13,627 14,853 16,190 7,647 19,235 Form IT 5,084 5,564 6,839 7,230 7,881 8,590 9,363 10,206 11,125 12,126 13,218 14,407 15,704 17,118 ; Form III 3,829 4,783 5,564 6,839 7,230 7,881 8,590 9,363 10,206 11,125 12,126 13,218 14,407 15,704 Form IV 3,316 4.003 _ 7,783 5,564 6,839 7,230 7,881 8,590 9,363 10,206 1,125 12,126 13,218 14,407 -Sub Total 18,819 21,189 24,640 22,194 30,806 33,354 36,355 39,628 43,195 47,084 51,322 55,941 60,976 66,464 Form V 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Form VI 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 $Vb Total 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 1I - VI 19,079 21,449 24,900 22,454 31,066 33,614 36,615 39,888 43,455 47,324 51,582 56,201 61,236 66,724 Total 1/ 2/ Data for 1979 and projections for 1980 onwards assume 35 pupils per stream and automatic promotion from one class to another for Form I-IV; Forms V and VI assume 25 pupils per stream. The number of streams is derived from Governsent Develop_t Plans. wDt.: DurinS 1973-76, privat, schools grt. at the rate of 10.97,. Forms I-IV grew at 11.25h and Forms V-VI at 6h per annum. The growth trends of Form I intake were at an average annual rate of 9.5% during 1973-74 and 12.6% over 1975-76. During that period there was considerable transfer at Forms II-IV from private to Government schools. The new Government education policy stopping transfer from private schools into Government schools now means that private schools would have to retain most of their initial intake. Taking this into consideration, the following assumptions were made: - a 9X per annum growth rate in private Form I intake - a 3h attrition rate from Form I to Form II and 0h for Form II to III and III to IV - Forms V and VI were assumed to remain at 1977 level Source: Manpower Report to the President, 1977, Ministry of National Education Sectoral Planning Department, and World Bank staff projections.  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT EXPENDITURES ONl EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN RELATION TO TOTAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (millions of shillings) Actual. Actual Actual Actual Actual pproved Estimates 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 stimates 1978/79 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 ________ _________ 12 77/78 _ _____ 1. Recurrent Ex2enditure on Education 432.7 548.6 63. 2 831. 7 2n ,329.59 IL516 -7 Ministry of Education 179.2 235.6 -349.1 357.3 386.o 441.7 532.4 Regions 158.8 210.8 301.4 323.5 395.3 670.7 715.9 Other Ministries 94.7 102.2 112.7 150.9 160.8 217.1 268.4 2. Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 2,226.2 2,785.0 3,961.1 3,883.9 5,022.0 5,734.6 6,967.1 1 as % of 2 19.4 19.7 19.3 21.4 18.8 23.2 21.8 3. Capital Expenditure on Education 2L. 2 80.8 201. 3 225.72 Ministry of Education 34.7 26.1 32.2 92.6 146.0 220.8 197.8 Regions 12. 20.5 43.5 54,8 42.8 60.7 89.8 Other Ministries 45.2 34.2 59.7 53.9 36.9 111.4 170. ?/ 4. Total Government Capital Expenditure 956.0 1,642.2 2,224.6 2,083.4 2,971.0 4,522.5 5,548.6 3 as % of 4 9.6 4.9 6.1 9.7 7.6 8.7 8.3 5. Total Expenditure on Education (1+3) 24.9 8 1,0330 .8 1,72.45 6. Total Government Expenditure (2+4) 3,182.2 4,427.2 6,185.7 5,967.3 7,993r0 10,257.1 12,515.7 5 as % of 6 16.5 14.2 14.5 17.3 14.6 16.8 15.8 7. GDP (Factor Cost, Current Prices) 10,032.0 11,490.0 14,010.0 16,988.0 20,606.0 26,140.0 29,074.0 5 as % of 7 5.2 5.5 6.4 6.1 5.7 6.6 6.8 Source: Annual budget estimates, and Ministries of Finance and National Education. / Approved estimates / Annual Plan 1978/79. _ I  - 44 - ANNEX 1 Table 8 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Seventh Education Project Projected Government Recurrent Expenditures on Education and Training 1978/79-1985/86 (millions of shillings at 1978/79 prices) Budget 2 growth - Estimates Projected rate 1978/79- Level and Type of Education 1978/79 1985/86 1985-86 1. Ministry of Education and 1,248.3 1,690.7 4.4 Regions' Expenditures Administration and General 54.7 74.1 4.4 Primary education 649.7 914.6 5.0 - Ministry (20.5) (29.2) - Regions (629.2) (885.4) Secondary education 154.6 164.1 0.9 Teacher education 139.0 186.4 4.3 Higher education 158.7 222.6 5.0 Adult education 81.3 114.4 5.O Folk Development Colleges 10.3 14.5 5.0 2. Other Ministries 268.4 302.6 1.7 3. Recurrent Expenditures 1,516.7 1,993.3 4.0 on Education (1+2) 4. Total Government Recurrent E,-,enditure (a) at 4.5% p.a. grow-th rate 9,481.2 (b) at 5.6% i t i 6,967.1 10,202.3 (c) at 6.0% " " " 10,475.9 3 as % of 4(a) 21.0 3 " 4(b) 21.8 19.5 3 " " " 4(c) 19.0 Source: Budget Estimates 1978/79, and appraisal mission calculations.  8. *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.slI ,1- 1.II-. R . ........ Ill IR 21, 1H..I 40188 15I 1,1-48 H01-1881-.,l-80H81 1. 8118dl01 08-1 18~~~1-1. 010188 11. AHIA ,, I H1. I 1181I *I8I Ill A40H81 A 11524 8- H88 14481111 1.14 11181 088811 41I81 _ H 1141_-8 18_1. 181i AHIHHH8 141 H81AIIH8 I 8llhH 8518 18 1H I-1 A-I. HIH,'8 818H8111 ,A10,I,881118 1 . 0 ll...~~~~~1.71 7 1,-118 l 1911I. , -1.1 8 1111-8 H1- 1 .- 84 H7~1 -1-2. 1i,I41. - 8 . 1 1 1. 181- 11811A-1 111.8811111 18.A -~~~~~~- 41 - 1IIH I,- I, I - .11. .57I1 -1 8 ,l A .H-4 .401 1- 181 41.81,- 8-A.1 LIIA1HIs8A 0811111.1811 lIHIll A.IAA -~~~~~~DiI - -l I0 .11 1-11 -1 I 11.1' I 117- - ,1 181. "I0.-0 , H H-HH1- 1 1. 1-1 .1. 418188111 I.AH - - - 1 1 191118A1721 -l I 4841- .l45... 1411 - H A .- ......1-l - 1 . -4. H. 11-1811 14 11 1 11 A 1- A 1- 0<5-4804 .82211. I 141. - .8 -71IA A 1