Document of aFIL CO P YD The World Bank F 0'aU"' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 2906-TA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT August 14, 1980 Eastern Africa Region Southern Agriculture Division This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Current Units = Tanzania Shillings (Tsh) US$0.12 = Tsh 1.00 US$1.00 = Tsh 8.30 US$1.00 = SDR 0.755068 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric British/US Equivalents 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 mile 1 square kilometer (km ) = 0.39 square mile (sq mi) 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 pounds (lb) 1 liter = 0.26 US gallon (gal) = 0.22 British gallon (imp gal) 1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds (lb) ABBREVIATIONS FRG - Federal Republic of Germany GAPEX - General Agricultural Products Export Corporation GOT - Government of Tanzania GTZ - German Agency for Technical Cooperation IRHO - Institut De Recherches Pour Les Huiles Et Oleagineux MARI - Mlingano Agricultural Research Institute MDB Marketing Development Bureau NAFCO - National Agricultural and Food Corporation PPMB - Project Preparation and Monitoring Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture TIRDEP - Tanga Integrated Regional Development Project TRDB - Tanzania Rural Development Bank FISCAL YEAR Government - July 1 - June 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. BACKGROUND ........ .............................. 1 A. Project Background ............ ..1............ B. The Agricultural Sector ............... I C. Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy.. 2 D. Agricultural Services ....................... 2 E. Agricultural Marketing and Pricing ......... 4 F. Previous Bank Group Assistance .............. 5 II. COCONUT SUB-SECTOR ...... ......................... 5 A. General ............................... 5 B. Coconut Production .................. 6 C. Diseases and Pests .................. 7 D. Research and Extension .. .................... 8 E. Marketing and Processing ............... 9 F. Future Prospects ............ .. .............. 10 III. PROJECT CONCEPT AND SCOPE .......... .. ........... 10 A. Project Rationale ...... ...................... 10 B. The Federal Republic of Germany Project ...... 12 C. The Project Area ...... ...................... 13 IV. THE PROJECT .............................. 14 A. General Description . . 14 B. Detailed Features ............ .. ............. 15 C. Project Costs ................... 22 D. Financing .................. ................. 24 V. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION .......................... 25 A. Management ................. ................. 25 B. Procurement ................. ................ 25 C. Disbursement .............. .. ................ 26 D. Accounts and Audit ........... .. ............. 27 E. Reporting, Monitoring and Evaluation ........ 27 VI. PROJECT BENEFITS ................. ................ 28 VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......... 29 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission consisting of A. Sidhu, J. Wijnand, A. Malik and A. Klempin (all IDA) which visited Tanzania in October, 1979. |This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance | lof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.| ANNEXES Supporting Charts, Tables and Maps Chart C-1 Schedule of Implementation Chart C-2 Organizational Chart Table T-1 Export of Coconut Products Table T-2 Illustrative Hectare Budget Table T-3 Ecological Data Table T-4 Estimated Schedule of Disbursements Table T-5 Summary of Project costs Table T-5a Varietal Trials Table T-5b Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials - Chambezi Table T-5c Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials - Zegereni Table T-5d Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials - Zanzibar Table T-5e Seed Garden Table T-5f Soil Survey Table T-5g Technical Assistance Table T-5h Training Table T-5i Consultants and Overseas Laboratory Services Table T-5j Phase II Feasibility Study Table T-5k Project Management Fee MAP - IBRD 14814R1 TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT I. BACKGROUND A. Project Background 1.01 The Project was identified by an IDA mission in May, 1978 and prepared by the Government of Tanzania (GOT) with assistance from FAO/CP in May, 1979. It was appraised by an IDA mission comprising of A. Sidhu, J. Wijnand, A. Malik and A. Klempin (all IDA) in October, 1979. The overall objective of the Project is to develop a strong base from which future pro- grams for rehabilitating the ailing coconut industry in Tanzania could be undertaken. Specifically the Project would assist in the formulation of a technical package for improved production of coconuts and train local staff to carry out projects related to the rehabilitation and development of the coconut industry. B. The Agricultural Sector 1.02 Tanzania's population (about 17 million in 1979)is increasing at a rate of about 3% per annum. Per capita GNP for 1978 is estimated at US$230. Real growth of GDP averaged about 5% per annum over the period 1976 - 78. Roughly' 50% of GDP is derived from agriculture and related activities, about half of this contribution coming from subsistence production. More than 90% of the population is engaged in agriculture. About 70% of Tanzania's foreign exchange earnings from merchandise exports are accounted for by unprocessed agricultural commodities, and a further 7% by processed farm products. The major export commodities are coffee, cotton, cashewnuts, tea, and tobacco. 1.03 Large-scale agriculture is confined to a small number of private estates and state farms producing sisal, coffee, tea, wheat, rice and live- stock. The largely traditionally managed livestock herd, estimated at 10 million head, is grazed extensively over the 40% of the country free from tsetse fly. 1.04 The recent performance of the agricultural sector has been sluggish. Over the period 1967-77, the average annual rate of growth of agricultural production was about 2.7%. From the late 1960's onward food production has failed to keep pace with population growth and as a result, Tanzania has become increasingly dependent on rice and wheat imports. The effects of this slow growth were exacerbated in 1973 and 1974 by poor harvests as a result of a severe drought which necessitated large importations of food grains. Since 1975, however, overall agricultural production has recovered, increasing in real terms at an average annual rate of 7%. At the same time there has been a shift from cash crops toward food crop production. Despite food crop produc- tion increases, rising demand for food crops has resulted in Tanzania continu- ing to depend on imports of rice and wheat. -2- C. Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy 1.05 The Government has undertaken a program to support the development of the agricultural sector, in conjunction with efforts to achieve balanced regional growth and more equitable income distribution. Within these objec- tives, the Government is paying particular attention to achieving self- sufficiency in food production and to supporting export crops. Greater emphasis is now being placed on the production rather than the social aspects of rural development projects. In 1972, Government administration was decen- tralized to the regional and district levels in order to plan development programs more closely related to the needs of the new villages. Since Independ- ence, but particularly since 1970, the Government, in order to facilitate the provision of infrastructure and services to the rural population, and to encourage self reliance and a community approach to rural development, adopted a strategy whose key element has been the grouping of dispersed farm families into villages. 1.06 There are at present about 7,700 registered villages, allocated for administrative purposes into 1,828 rural wards, containing over three-quarters of Tanzania's rural population. The village is intended to be the country's primary social, economic and political unit. Basic social services, including health facilities, schools and water supply systems, are to be provided. Economic services, including provision of credit, supply of inputs, organization of extension services and marketing of produce, are to be coordinated at the village level. Economic infrastructure, such as storage godowns, processing equipment and small-scale industries, are to be village-owned investments. D. Agricultural Services Research 1.07 Agricultural research in Tanzania is undertaken by a number of government agencies but the Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) is responsible for overall guidance of the national research effort, and operates a network of crop and livestock research stations. Tanzania's research system, which has deteriorated over the years, has several weaknesses. Kilimo has not been able to exercise effective control and, as a result, priorities have not always been firmly established, the regional emphasis has been unclear, and research resources have not been allocated in accordance with development prioritles. There is a need for sharper focus on improving knowledge on Tanzania's agro-economic zones, and on improving the farming systems in these zones through a greater emphasis on field testing. The links between research and extension are weak because of poor coordination between the Regions, who are responsible for extension, and Kilimo who is in charge of research and training. - 3 - 1.08 The Tanzanian research system already receives support under the Tabora Rural Development Project (Cr. 803-TA). Tanzania is also increasing its links with various international agricultural research institutes sup- ported through the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Extension 1.09 Responsibility for agricultural extension in Tanzania is divided between Kilimo (which trains extension staff), the twenty regional adminis- trations (which are responsible for the day-to-day management of about half of the country's extension staff) and some crop parastatals (which employ the remaining extension staff). In early 1978, a total of 100 graduates, 3,000 field officers with formal diploma or certificate-level training, and 3,500 field assistants with little formal training, were involved in extension work. Extension efforts have been relatively ineffective. As a result of the weak research base, relatively few proven technical packages are available. Many field staff are inadequately trained and supervised, and receive limited logistical support. The situation was made worse in 1978 by the decision of Government to appoint salaried Village Managers to each registered village. Many of the better trained extension staff were trans- ferred to become Village Managers. The relationship between Village Managers, extension agents and Village Management Technicians 1/ remains unclear, and Kilimo and the Prime Minister's Office (which has overall responsibility for regional administration) hold differing views on how extension should be organized in the future. IDA has made proposals to Government on the reorgan- ization of the extension service, using the principles of the 'training and visit' system adapted to Tanzania conditions, and the extension services in Mwanza and Shinyanga regions are being reorganized along these lines as part of the IDA-supported Rural Development Project for these regions (Cr. 803-Ta). Kilimo is currently drawing up a comprehensive plan for the overall development of agricultural extension. Progress on the improvement of extension services has continued to be slow. Credit 1.10 The major agencies involved in the provision of credit to the agri- cultural sector are the National Bank of Commerce (NBC) and the Tanzania Rural Development Bank (TRDB). NBC is the main source of short-term credit to parastatals for produce marketing, and in addition provides about two-thirds of the total production credit, mainly to large estates. TRDB provides long, medium and short-term agricultural credit, administers special funds on behalf of Government, and has been supported by the Bank Group as the major credit channel for funds disbursed for direct use by farmers. A project to strengthen TRDB has recently been approved by IDA. 1/ For a description of the Village Management Technician Program, see the staff Appraisal Report for the Fifth Education Project (Cr. 607-TA). -4- Rural Transport Services 1.11 An adequate road transport system is needed to ensure the efficient movement of crops to market centers and railheads, and to support timely delivery of agricultural inputs to the farmers. Despite Government's efforts to upgrade the road network, only about 10 percent of the 33,400 km of roads provide reliable, all weather service. The remainder, particularly rural roads, are, in general, little more than earth tracks impassable in the rainy seasons. In addition, the trucking fleet available for use by parastatals (either through ownership or hire) has been limited, thus making crop movement even more difficult. Crop marketing has suffered from high transport costs, and deterioration of crops in villages with inadequate storage facilities. Poor transport facilities cause delays in payment to villages and often dictate that villages receive sums large enough to handle crops over extended periods, leading to inadequate supervision and accounting of funds advanced for purchases. Current Government action to address these problems is directed mainly at the public sector, and includes the provision of staff training and equipment under several IDA-assisted projects, and the recent creation of betterment and maintenance units' which are upgrading selected secondary roads in several regions. Assistance to the public trucking industry is being provided through the IDA-supported Trucking Industry Rehabilitation and Improvement Project (Cr. 743-TA). This has not proved sufficient to overcome transport bottlenecks in the critical areas of crop procurement and the Government, under IDA assisted projects, has provided parastatals with additional transport facilities. E. Agricultural Marketing and Pricing Marketing 1.12 In May 1976, the Primary Cooperative Societies and Unions, which previously played an important role in agricultural marketing' were dissolved and these functions transferred to other district, regional and national organizations, of which the most prominent are the various parastatal bodies. At present, there are separate parastatal organizations for coffee, tea, sugar, livestock and dairy products, foodgrains, cashewnuts, tobacco, cotton, sisal and pyrethrum. In addition to providing marketing and processing services, most parastatals have development responsibilities as well and their generally ambitious expectations have placed severe strains on manpower resources. Parastatal marketing is normally characterized by lack of competi- tion, high cost, poor services and slow payments to farmers. The Government is aware of these problems. Its Standing Committee on Parastatal Organization (SCOPO) is reviewing the structure and managerial performance of parastatels. There have been transfers of staff from over-manned parastatals. The Bank group is assisting in the reviews through its analysis of parastatals involved in recent and proposed IDA credits; i.e. the Tea Adthority, the Cashew Authority, the Tobacco Authority, the Pyrethrum Board (proposed to be renamed the Pyrethrum - 5 - Authority in future) and the National Milling Corporation. It also intends to start a broader review of Tanzania's agricultural parastatals as a principal focus of its sector work in FY80 and FY81. Pricing 1.13 The control of producer, wholesale and retail prices of major crops is an important tool of the Government's development policy. Producer prices of all principal export crops, except sisal and coffee, are controlled as are major food crops except vegetables, fruits, fish and eggs. MOA is responsible for formulating pricing recommendations. Its Marketing Development Bureau (which receives assistance from UNDP and IDA) carries out annual reviews of producer prices for major crops, taking into account production costs and the need for incentives to producers. MOA's recommendations are reviewed by the Agricultural Products Price Coordinating Committee, which consists of repre- sentatives from the major ministries and parastatals and then by the Economic Committee of the Cabinet, which makes the final decision on prices. F. Previous Bank Group Assistance 1.14 Previous Bank Group assistance to the agricultural sector in Tanzania has included IDA credits totalling US$250.8 million and IBRD loans for US$37 million for nineteen agricultural and three rural development projects. Agri- cultural projects include one each for sugar, maize, fisheries, forestry, cot- ton, and two each for agricultural credit,tea and cashewnuts, and three each for livestock and tobacco. Rural development Projects have been financed by IDA in the Kigoma and Tabora regions, and lately in Mwanza/Shinyanga region. Project Performance Audit Reports for two projects (the Flue-Cured Tobacco Project and the Smallholder Tea Development Project) have recently been pre- pared. In both cases, the economic rate of return is satisfactory. However, implementation experience highlighted the weaknesses of the parastatals involved and the consequent need for considerable investment in institution- building. Lack of experienced staff with the necessary expertise both at the managerial and technical level has hampered implementation. Targets to be achieved have tended to be overly ambitious within the time framework alloted. These lessons have been taken into account in the design of the Project by making it a Pilot Project to develop technical and management expertise for subsequent full-scale projects. II . THE COCONUT SUB-SECTOR A. General 2.01 Coconut is an important crop in the entire coastal belt of Tanzania including the islands of Zanzibar, Pemba and Mafia. It is predominantly a smallholder crop and provides domestic subsistence requirements for fresh nuts - 6 - and oil which are important items in the diet of the coastal people. Surplus nuts are processed into copra 1/ and sold to processing mills and the product is used in various vegetable oil industries in Tanzania. 2.02 To the smallholder, apart from its food value, coconuts are a source of cash income. It is the only cash crop, apart from cashewnut, which is planted on an extensive scale along the coast. To the country it represents a source of raw material for local industries and, until about 1974, was also a source of substantial foreign exchange earnings from export of copra and coconut oil (Table T-1). 2.03 In recent times, with improvements in transportation, the consump- tion pattern of fresh nuts has changed markedly and the fresh nut market has extended to areas further inland beyond the traditional 30-50 km width of the coastal coconut belt, resulting in an increased fresh nut consumption. Due to the increased demand for fresh nuts the market price of nuts has risen from Tsh. 0.5 to about Tsh. 2.0 per nut over the last five years while the price of copra, as fixed by Government, is Tsh 2.50 per kg. The farmer receives about Tsh 0.6-0.7 per nut at his farm. It takes about 6 nuts to produce 1 kg of copra which means that there is no incentive to produce copra. At the same time, neglect of palms, poor management, old age of palms, and pest and disease problems have led to a reduction in nut production over the years. Consequently, progressively lower quantities of copra have become available for export. Available statistics indicate a drop in copra exports from 16,000 tons in 1969/70 to no exports in 1978/79 (Table T-1). Similarly, coconut oil exports have declined, and ceased from a high of 8,900 tons in 1969/70. Eleven oil mills with a total crushing capacity of 20,000 tons, previously fully utilized, are now running at only about 20% capacity. Palm oil and other vegetable oil is being imported for local use to make up for reduced availability of coconut oil. Thus, the coconut industry is playing a markedly declining role as a foreign exchange earner as well as a supplier of domestic needs. B. Coconut Production 2.04 Reliable statistics on total area under coconuts are not available. Current Ministry of Agriculture estimates, however, indicate 90,000 hectares of coconuts on the mainland, of which about 41,000 hectares are located in the Tanga region in the north, 23,000 ha in the Coast region and the rest mainly in the Mtwara and Lindi regions in the south. Zanzibar and Pemba are esti- mated to have 26,000 ha while Mafia Island has 8,500 ha of coconuts. Thus, according to available information coconut cultivation is spread over 90,000 ha on the mainland and approximately 35,000 on the islands, making a total of 125,000 ha for the Republic of Tanzania. About 95% of the total area is smallholder coconuts. Estimates indicate roughly 75% of the palms are 50 years or more in age. 1/ Dried coconut meat before expression of oil. - 7 - 2.05 The main variety of coconuts cultivated is what is generally known as the East African Tall, and it comes into bearing in 6-7 years from planting but under adverse conditions this period can extend to 10-12 years. This variety continues to bear to about 70-80 years of age although there are indications that proper maintenance and adequate fertilizer application can extend this period. No reliable data on yields and production of smallholdings is available but current overall yields are estimated to be about 20/nuts/palm per year. In the Lindi region, despite a 5-6 month long dry season' there is visual evidence of vigorous palm growth and yields of 40-60 nuts/palm from 8-10 year old palms under minimum maintenance conditions in some groves close to villages in the coastal and valley bottom areas. There are some indications from experimental data collected in Tanga some years ago, that mean yields of 80 nuts/palm are possible with improved management even with palms over 50 years old. 2.06 The general level of management of the coconut smallholdings is extremely poor. Palm densities vary, ranging from 300 palms per hectare to 70-80 palms per hectare with an average of 90 palms per hectare of which only about 70 palms are bearing. 1/ Maintenance is generally restricted to annual burning of undergrowth, an operation which often damages and retards the growth of the palms. Intercropping with food crops like cassava and maize, is usually carried out in the early years of the growth of the palms in at least part of the holding but fertilizer is rarely used for the coconuts or the inter-crops. Farmers have shown some interest in infilling or new plantings but the seedlings supplied to them through Government programs have been unselected ones. 2.07 The management of the few estates or plantations, except for the Mafia Plantation, is also now of a very low level. As in the case of the smallholdings it is a low input - low output system. The larger estates, previously owned and managed by European settlers, are now. State owned. The former German-owned Opel Estate in Bagamoyo, Coast Region, is now owned and managed by NAFCO. It covers approximately 1,600 ha and average yields are estimated at about 20-25 nuts per palm with a palm density of 60-70 palm/ha. Mafia Coconut Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 for the purpose of developing the private estates on Mafia Island. Mafia plantation which covers an area of 2,800 ha is relatively better managed but due to financial constraints no fertilizer has been applied over the last several years resulting in a decline in production. Present yields are estimated at about 30-35 nuts/palm per year. Results from application of fertilizer to large blocks of 60-80 year old palms indicate the possibility of increasing nut production from 20 to 40 nuts per palm over a 3-4 year period. The plantations on Zanzibar, which are now Government owned, cover approximately 1,100 ha. The palms are old and yields are estimated at about 25 nuts/palm. C. Diseases and Pests 2.08 In recent years an estimated 20-25% of palms particularly in the Tanga, Pangani and Bagamoyo areas have been affected by 'disease'. The incidence of disease was first reported in 1968 but no clear cut answer 1/ Normal recommended density for pure stands of Talls is 143 palms/ha. -8- as to its nature has been given as yet. Steiner and Marshall, in 1976, carried out a survey in Tanga Region and described the symptoms of the 'disease' which afflicted palms 8-40 years old. Laboratory examination of tissue and root samples did not isolate specific fungi nor were abnormal numbers of nematodes detected in the root samples, Further, electron micro- scopic examination of tissue samples did not show virus or mycoplasma 1/-like organisms, but in all samples Rickettsia 2/-like organisms were identified. Contrary to an earlier report, Steiner and Marshall also were of the opinion that Bole rot was not present in the Tanga region. They also did not find any palms with symptoms resembling Lethal Yellowing or Kaincope diseases. 2.09 Some coconut specialists have expressed the opinion that since only palms growing under unfavorable conditions or suffering from old age or neglect tend to exhibit 'disease' symptoms, and since the 'disease' appears to have appeared on the scene only in the last 5-10 years, the observed 'disease' may be physiological rather than pathological or that the unfavorable growing con- ditions predispose the palms to disease. The presence of the problem, none- theless, is a matter of concern (paras 3.03-3.07). 2.10 The two main pests of coconut in Tanzania are the rhinoceros beetle (Oryctes Monoceros, Oliv.) and a coreid bug (Pseudotheraptus wavi, Brown). The rhino-beetle is seen to cause great damage to palms of all ages in all the areas except the islands where the incidence is low. The insect breeds in decaying organic material, such as dead coconut trunks, cattle manure, etc. and the practice of farm hygiene involving proper disposal of dead palm trunks and other organic debris is known to help reduce beetle infestation, but no serious attempts have been made in Tanzania to encourage these practices. Biological control of the beetle (0. rhinoceros) using the virus Baculovirus oryctes has been tried in W. Samoa, Fiji and Tonga with considerable success. Laboratory tests have shown 0. monocerus also to be susceptible to the virus. The coreid bug which causes premature nut fall is a serious pest mainly in Zanzibar. Attempts in the past at developing economic control measures for this insect have not been successful. There is need to develop control measures in Tanzania, particularly for the rhino-beetle and to educate farmers in these methods in order to reduce the damage to palms. D. Research and Extension 2.11 Up to 1970, coconut research was carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture mainly at the Chambezi Experimental Station in the Coast Region. However, no information or results from trials during this period have been available or have been put into practice. Since 1970, research on coconut has l/ Minute organisms of genus Mycoplasma that are intermediate between viruses and bacteria. 2/ Any of a family (Ricketsiaceae) of micro organisms that cause various diseases. - 9 - been shifted to Mlingano Agriculture Research Institute (MARI) in the Tanga region. The current research program is extremely limited and reflects the low priority accorded, hitherto, to coconuts. Some agronomic trials are also being carried out at Chambezi, but supervised from MARI. Two Tanzanian officials are assigned duties on coconut research. Both officers, however, would benefit from further training and experience in coconut research. 2.12 The lack of emphasis on the part of the Ministry of Agriculture on coconuts in the past, is also reflected in the standard of extension service provided on this crop. While the Regional Authorities are responsible for extension services in the regions, the Ministry is responsible for provid- ing guidance and training to regional staff on the technical aspects. There has been no properly planned extension advice or program for improved coconut production. The meagre Regional attempts at coconut extension have mainly been limited to the establishment of nurseries for raising seedlings for distribution to farmers. There are no reliable sources of good seed nuts, the standard of nurseries is poor, except for those in Zanzibar, and the seedlings distributed have been unselected ones. E. Marketing and Processing 2.13 The marketing and pricing of fresh coconuts is not subject to state control but the marketing of copra is. Up to 1976 the Cooperatives acted as buying agents for copra for supply to the oil mills for processing or to the General Agricultural Products Export Corporation (GAPEX) for exporting. Since 1976, however, village councils, i.e. primary cooperatives, have acted as buying agents for copra within a village. On district and regional levels the copra is delivered to GAPEX or the National Milling Corporation (NMC). On a national level only GAPEX conducts sales for exports of copra. 2.14 Copra price is fixed each year by Government as is the case with other scheduled crops. Producer prices were raised sharply in 1974/75 after world market prices for copra had increased from US$353/ton in 1973 (CIF European Ports, in current terms) to US$662/ton in 1974. When world market prices began falling below the 1974 level in 1975 - where they remained until 1979, Government retained the producer price at Tsh 2.30/kg, which has been above the export parity price. Only in 1979, when world market prices re- covered at about the 1974 level (US$673/ton), did the producer price fall slightly below the export parity price, and consequently the Government increased the price to Tsh 2.50/kg in 1980 to restore export parity. 2.15 Unlike the copra price, the producer price for fresh nuts is not fixed by Government but determined by the market. Prices show wide seasonal variations, with highest prices realized from September to December when demand is greatest. As in the case of copra, prices for fresh nuts also increased sharply in 1974/75, and have continued to increase from year to year while the copra price was held constant. The average fresh nut producer price - 10 - for 1980 was about Tsh 0.70/nut while the price per nut in terms of copra was about Tsh 0.40 only. Though at this lower price level copra production is still a profitable enterprise for the coastal farmer as compared to other crop alternatives (Table T-2), it is obvious that his clear priority is to maximize profits by sales of fresh nuts and this, ultimately, has contributed to the reduced supply of copra. For a large rehabilitation program in the future (para 6.03) Government would need to address the coconut/copra producer price relationship in the context of an overall production strategy of various coconut products (para 3.08). F. Future Prospects 2.16 Current estimated production of nuts is about 175 million. Copra purchase statistics for 1978/79 show an aggregate for the whole country of about 1,000 tons only, which is equivalent to about 6 million nuts. The balance of 169 million nuts can, therefore, be assumed to have been consumed fresh. Assuming that the fresh nut market continues to expand inland due to improving transportation facilities, and on the basis of present estimated per capita consumption of about 40 nuts annually in the coconut growing areas and adjacent regions, and with the population of these areas projected to double by year 2000, consumption is estimated to absorb an additional 250 million nuts by that year. 2.17 Tanzania's population is estimated to almost double by year 2000 (to a total of 32 million). Based on a per capita consumption of 2.5 kg edible oils, total demand for the country is estimated at 80,000 tons. If only one-third would be extracted from copra, it converts to about 56,000 tons copra, equivalent to about 300 million nuts. These requirements for domestic consumption of fresh nuts and oil alone would exceed the production potential of a large scale second phase coconut rehabilitation project (para 6.03). III. PROJECT CONCEPT AND SCOPE A. Project Rationale 3.01 The continuing decline in copra production, that has turned Tanzania into a vegetable oil importing instead of an exporting country, an increasing demand for fresh nuts and the desire of the Government to initiate more development programs to benefit people in the coastal regions of the country, has finally focussed attention on the coconut crop. 3.02 The extensive area under coconuts, strung out as it is along the entire coast line and islands of Tanzania, the mature age of a large proportion of the palms, many of which were planted prior to World War I, the considerable production of copra in previous years, and current evidence of yield potentials - 11 - of 50-80 nuts/palms, all tend to indicate a generally satisfactory environment for the growth of this crop. The decline in production has largely been brought about by political and social changes affecting ownership of holdings leading in many cases to neglect of the holdings, poor husbandry practices, old age of the palms, diseases and a lack, hitherto, of a concentrated Govern- ment effort to improve the coconut situation. The spontaneous replanting carried out by some smallholders although on a very limited scale, but with minimum of assistance or direction by Government, tends to indicate interest on the part of smallholders in improving production. 3.03 A program or plan for the rehabilitation of the coconut industry obviously needs to incorporate a coordinated approach covering institutional, agronomic, marketing and processing aspects. A strong base from which a coconut development program can be launched needs to be built. However, before such a program can be formulated and subsequently implemented, it is essential to remove recognized constraints that would hinder such an under- taking. The main constraints are the following: (a) lack of reliable information which could assist in the formulation of a technical package incorporating recom- mendations on variety and husbandry practices suited to local conditions. (b) lack of socio-economic data pertaining to the farmers and their farms in the coconut growing areas. (c) lack of adequate number of trained and experienced staff to undertake a coconut rehabilitation program. (d) the absence of a local source of selected and improved planting material. (e) inadequate information on the disease of unknown etiology affecting palms in certain areas. 3.04 The constraints listed above are all of significant importance and need to be addressed, but the choice of a variety of coconut that would form the core of a technical package and, therefore, of the entire rehabilitation program needs particular consideration. The East African Tall under Tanzanian conditions comes into bearing in about the 6-7th year and has a yield poten- tial of 60-80 nuts/palm under good smallholder management. Assuming a conver- sion factor of 6 nuts to 1 kg of copra and a planting density of 143 palm/ha, an estimated potential production of about 1.4-1.9 tons of copra per ha can be expected. The use of this variety with improved husbandry practices would by itself be a significant improvement over existing conditions. However, research and field data from other coconut growing countries shows the poten- tial of selected hybrid varieties, e.g. PB121 from Ivory Coast, 1/ with 1/ PB121 is a cross between Malaysian Yellow Dwarf and West African Tall. - 12 - early bearing characteristics (4-5th year) and yields of up to 180 nuts per palm per year or 6 tons of copra from 15 year old palms under optimum manage- ment. Thus, before undertaking extensive rehabilitation of existing, unproduc- tive coconut areas, it is important that these hybrids (and other varieties) be tested under Tanzanian conditions for if found successful their introduc- tion into the rehabilitation program could have a significant impact on the coconut industry. 3.05 The nature of the constraints listed above, the limited knowledge of the suitability of available improved technology for coconut cultivation in Tanzania'and the limited institutional capacity to undertake a coconut reha- bilitation and development program dictates the need for a 'pilot' phase designed to resolve these constraints and pave the way for the formulation and implementation of a coconut development project. B. The Federal Republic of Germany Project 3.06 The Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) is providing about US$4.0 million under its Technical Cooperative Program to finance a pilot phase of a National Coconut Development Project. The FRG has been involved in an integrated regional development project for the Tanga region (TIRDEP) which includes some work on coconuts. However, with the Government of Tanzania's decision to place greater emphasis on the coconut sub-sector, the FRG was requested to extend its assistance so as to include coconut areas outside of the Tanga region as well. After careful consideration the FRG decided that a pilot phase to tackle some of the constraints listed earlier (para 3.03) was advisable. 3.07 Under an agreement concluded between GOT and FRG in April 1979, five expatriate specialists (plant pathologist, entomologist, plant breeder, agronomist/extension specialist and an economist/team leader) are being pro- vided initially for a 3-year period. They would focus attention on the following: (a) Diseases and Pests (i) studies of the diseases affecting coconuts in Tanzania with a view to identifying the causal agents and deve- loping control measures. (ii) ascertaining the extent of spread of diseases and mapp- ing disease free areas for possible subsequent development. (iii) development of control measures for the Rhino beetle and coreid bug including biological control measures. The disease and pest studies are expected to be based et the Mlingano Agricultural Research Institute (MARI). FRG funds will be used to employ two expatriate specialists and to strengthen laboratory facilities at the Institute to cope with the proposed disease and pest studies. - 13 - (b) Plant Breeding A breeding program was originally planned to study East African Talls, and existing Malaysian Dwarfs and their combinations on Mafia Island with a view to developing improved varieties and the establishment of a seed multiplication unit. However, earlier estimates of the number of Dwarf palms available on Mafia Island for the breeding program, have proven to be over-estimates. As an interim measure, therefore, under arrangements with IRHO, pollen of the East African Tall will be flown to the Port Bouet Station in the Ivory Coast, and the resulting hybrid seed nuts brought back to Tanzania for testing. At the same time a 50 ha block of Dwarfs 1/ would be established in Tanzania for the breeding program and eventual use as a seed multiplication unit. The breeding program will be carried out on Mafia Island whereby Mafia Coconut Limited provides the field management but the program is tech- nically supervised by the expatriate Plant Breeder who would be based on the plantation. (c) Extension and Training The Extension specialist recruited under the Project would assist in drawing up a training program and in training local extension staff in the regions on all aspects of coconut husbandry and provide extension aids and set up demonstration plots. In addition the FRG project will provide for training overseas of up to six Tanzanian staff in the fields of plant protection, plant breeding, agricultural extension and agricul- tural planning. These staff are expected to take over and con- tinue the work initiated by expatriate staff in these fields. 3.08 The FRG project would also assist the GOT in the preparation of a Coconut Master Plan which is expected to provide a strategy and guidelines for the rehabilitation of the Tanzania Coconut Industry. Institutional requirements, marketing and price policies for coconuts and copra, farm surveys and related studies would be carried out to assist in the preparation of the Plan. 3.09 The Project is being implemented by the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) on behalf of the FRG. C. The Project Area 3.10 The Project would cover all the coastal coconut growing areas in the Tanga, Dar es Salaam, Coast, Mtwara and Lindi regions of mainland Tanzania and the island of Zanzibar. 1/ Malaysian, Cameroon, Guinea Equatorial, Sri Lanka Dwarfs. - 14 - 3.11 The topography of the coconut growing areas is generally flat ro undulating with some areas subject to waterlogging. The soils vary from sand through silty-sand to silty-clay-sand or are laterized residual soils of generally considerable depth. There are some areas with shallow soil over reef limestones used often for sisal cultivation. In Zanzibar, coconuts are mainly grown in the western part of the island where the soils are richer and deeper than in the eastern or southern parts. 3.12 Rainfall varies from region to region (Table T-3). In the Tanga region the mean annual rainfall is about 1,300 mm; dropping to 1,000 mm in the Bagamoyo area of the Coast region and to only 800-900 mm further south in the Lindi region. On the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba the rainfall is around 1,400 mm while Mafia island receives a substantially higher rainfall averaging 1,800 mm. The rainfall distribution pattern also varies, with the Tanga region in the north showing a bimodal pattern with a short dry season in January and February and a much longer dry season from June through October. In the Mtwara and Lindi regions in the south, the distribution pattern is unimodal with a considerably longer dry season (6-7 months) from May through November. During the dry season some rainfall occurs but the longer the dry season, the greater the possibility of periods as much as 90 days without effective rainfall (less than 3 mm). The stress due to moisture deficiency, increasas with the length of the dry season and, therefore, is liable to be greatest in the south. It is probable that in the Mtwara/Lindi area, in particular, coconuts flourish largely because the sites selected by farmers for growing coconuts are invariably along the Coast and in river valleys where there is a high and perennial water table. IV. THE PROJECT A. General Description 4.01 The proposed Pilot Project would, over a five-year period, con- tribute towards the development of a strong base from which future programs for rehabilitating the coconut industry in Tanzania could be undertaken. It would serve as a preparatory phase and provide guidance for the planning and implementation of future large scale coconut projects. Specifically, the Project would assist in the formulation of a technical package for improved production of coconuts in Tanzania as well as train local staff to carry out projects related to the rehabilitation of the coconut industry. At all stages the Project was viewed as a part of the overall attempt by GOT to tackle the constraints limiting coconut production and its attempts to rehabilitate the coconut industry and, therefore, close attention was also paid to the FRG project to ensure that the two projects are complementary to one another. The FRG project covers disease and pest control studies, development of a breeding program and establishment of a seed multiplication unit, training of staff, and the formulation of a Coconut Master Plan. - 15 - 4.02 The Project would comprise the following components: (a) varietal trials on three sites on mainland Tanzania and on one site on Zanzibar, covering a total of about 200 ha; (b) improved maintenance and rehabilitation trials on a total of about 1,000 ha on the Chambezi Experimental Station and Zegereni State Farm on the mainland and on the Government Plantations in Zanzibar; (c) a 100 ha seed garden for the production of hybrid seed nuts; (d) soil and hydrological surveys to assist in the selection of varietal trial sites, the seed garden site, and the pre- paration of a coconut land suitability map to guide future developments; (e) the services of an internationally-recruited coconut agro- nomist and a coconut plantation manager to carry out the varietal and rehabilitation trials; (f) training of Tanzanian staff in coconut husbandry, rehabi- litation methods and techniques; (g) short-term consultants and overseas laboratory services; (h) the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of the coconut development program; (i) contracting a consultant organization to manage and implement the Project. B. Detailed Features Varietal Trials 4.03 This component would consist of a set of trials located at a selected site in each of the regions of Tanga, Coast, and Mtwara-Lindi on the mainland and Zanzibar. This would provide coverage of the major rainfall distribution patterns of the coconut belt, as well as the high disease incidence areas. An area of about 50 ha would be carefully selected in each of the four areas taking into consideration soil suitability, and accesibility. Consultants would be engaged to assist in the selection of these sites (para 4.18). In addition, the Project would also provide for tractors, equipment, vehicles, spares, seednuts, a small office, store cum garage and operational costs for carrying out the trials at each site. 4.04 The set of trials would consist of (i) a comparative study of the performance of a number of varieties, i.e. a varietal trial, (ii) an evalua- tion of the hybrid PB121; and (iii) a determination of the nutrient require- ments of PB121. The objective of the varietal trial would be to select the - 16 - most promising variety of coconut for each of the regions. The basic design of the trial at each of the sites would be the same and would include a number of imported hybrids including PB121, and Tall varieties, e.g. W. African, Rennel, Tahiti as well as the local E.A. Tall variety. It is anticipated that about 30 varieties would be included in the trial but the final number and varieties to be included would be dependent on availability of seed nuts. Data would be collected on growth, precocity, production and disease and pest resistance. 4.05 The development of the hybrid- PB121, by IRHO in the Ivory Coast is a fairly recent phenomenon. The oldest plantings are about 15 years old. While it has the potential for high production (para 3.04) and has so far performed well in several countries, it would be essential to test it under Tanzanian conditions in order to determine the effect of local environmental factors on its production potential. While the varietal trials would include and compare PB121 and other promising varieties, an early evaluation of this hybrid by itself, in view of its performance elsewhere, when planted and managed according to a high and a low input system, i.e. estate and smallholder management conditions, would be advantageous in giving indications as to its suitability for planting under similar conditions. A 5 ha block of PB121 would be established of each of the three sites on the mainland and one on Zanzibar and the growth and production of the palms evaluated under a good management system. In addition seedlings of PB121 would also be distributed to selected farmers to determine the performance of this hybrid under smallholder conditions. A total of about 10 farmers adjacent to each of the varietal trial sites would be selected and given 20 seedlings each. The farmers would also receive extension advice and fertilizer for the palms. A total of about 40 farmers would therefore be involved in these trials. 4.06 A trial to determine the nutrient requirements of PB121 would also be established at the sites proposed for the performance or evaluation trial. Information from this trial would provide guidance for drawing up fertilizer recommendations. To assist in monitoring the nutrient levels and determining the nutrient needs of the palms, provision would be made for foliar analysis services (para 4.26). 4.07 The importation of nuts for the trials would be from countries which are known to be free from diseases. This would exclude in particular the supply of nuts from the west-coast of India (Kerala Wilt), certain W. African countries (Kaincope disease), certain areas of the Philippines (Cadang-cadang), and Jamaica (Lethal yellow). lmportation and quarantine regulations would be taken into account when importing seed nuts. Tanzanian Plant Quarantine officials would visit the country supplying seed nuts to satisfy themselves that the plantations supplying the seed nuts are disease free. 4.08 Nurseries to raise seedlings to be used in the trials would be established at each of the four sites. The seednuts would be germinated in germination beds to facilitate selection of seedlings and transferred to a polybag nursery. Ten-month old selected .seedlings would be used for field planting which would be carried out at the beginning of the wet season. - 17 - 4.09 Nurseries at the three mainland sites would also be used to raise a limited number of seedlings for distribution to farmers largely for infilling. This, however would only be done in the 3rd year after the needs of the varietal trials have been satisfied. Seedlings of the East African Tall, raised and selected according to good nursery management and selection criteria, would be distributed through the Regional Agricultural Development Office, primarily to farmers who would be covered by the extension training component of the FRG project to ensure that improved husbandry practices are followed. This would enable the concept of selected seedlings and improved husbandry practices to be introduced to farmers. Feedback to the Extension agronomist would serve a useful purpose in the design of future programs. Approximately 33,000 seedlings per year (approximately 230 ha) would be distributed from each of the three nurseries. The nursery in Zanzibar would not raise seedlings for distribution to farmers as the present density of palms is generally too high, and therefore, unlike the mainland regions, do not require infilling. Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials 4.10 The objective of these trials which are essentially large scale observations, would be to test known improved methods and techniques of maintenance and rehabilitation of coconuts with a view to adopting or adapt- ing them for local conditions. Results from these trials would enable the development of a general technical package for use in a rehabilitation program. Large blocks of existing coconuts located in Chambezi Experimental Station, Zegereni State Farm on the mainland, and Government plantations in Zanzibar would be used for this purpose. Provision would be made for the necessary machinery and equipment, fertilizer and other maintenance costs required to carry out these trials. In Zanzibar, Kilimo would make available to the Project eight tractors from its existing fleet of tractors. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. 4.11 Both the Chambezi Station and the Zegereni Farm are located in the Coast region. The Chambezi Station belongs to the Ministry of Agricul- ture and covers approximately 400 ha of which a block of about 100 ha of mature palms (30-50 years old) would be used for the proposed trials. The Zegereni Farm is managed by the Regional Agricultural Development Office and is approximately 4,000 ha in area, of which only about 200 ha are pre- sently under coconuts. An area of about 80 ha of newly planted and 6-10 year old palms would be set aside for trial purposes. In Zanzibar, eight Govern- ment plantations which cover approximately 950 ha, with palms about 50-80 years old, would be utilized to carry out the management and rehabilitation trials. 4.12 The proposed trials would include (i) a comparison of fertilizer rates, time of application and methods of placement on young and mature palms, (ii) comparison of covers; methods and techniques of establishment and mainte- nance of covers, (iii) weed control methods, (iv) methods and techniques of replanting and thinning of dense stands (including disposal of discarded palm trunks), determination of optimum palm densities; (v) intercropping; (vi) comparison of nursery methods and techniques; (vii) comparison of disease - 18 - and pest control methods. These large scale trials would also provide cost and production data which would facilitate the development of recommendations both for smallholders and estates. Each of the trial sites would also serve as a training ground for local staff, both on managerial as well as crop husbandry aspects. Seed Garden 4.13 To develop and implement a sizeable coconut rehabilitation program in the coming years as is envisaged in Tanzania, steps need to be taken to establish a local source of improved high yielding planting material. It would be extremely expensive and impractical to base a large scale rehabilita- tion program on wholly imported material. The final decision as to the variety/ ies of coconut that would be recommended for large scale dissemination would depend on the results of the variety trials proposed under this project. But performance data in a number of coconut growing countries tend to indicate a strbng possibility that a hybrid like the PB121, which has the Malaysian Dwarf as one of the parents, could also be one of the main varieties suited for Tanzania. Since the palms of the Dwarf variety take 3-4 years to start flowering and therefore, available for production of hybrid seed nuts, early planting of the dwarfs would be highly desirable. 4.14 A 100 ha seed garden 1/ would be established on Mafia Island where climatic conditions are amongst the most favorable. Of the 100 ha, 80 ha would be planted with Malaysian yellow and red Dwarfs,Cameroon red, Guinea Equatorial green.and Sri Lanka green Dwarfs, (50:10:12:5:3 ha.), using imported seed nuts. These mother palms would be planted in a homogenous block isolated (500 m) from other coconut palms. The male parents (20 ha) would be of the E. African, W. African, Rennel and Tahiti Tall varieties and once the parent has been selected, hybrids would be produced using assisted pollination. The Talls will only come into flower and produce pollen in gradually increasing quantities from about the 6th year. Additional pollen requirements could, initially, be imported, so as not to delay production of hybrids if required. 4.15 It is estimated that 1 ha of Dwarf mother palms would produce enough hybrid seed nuts to plant about 12 ha in year 5 but increasing to 48 ha at maturity, i.e. 10 years of age. 80 ha would, therefore, enable 3,800 ha of hybrids to be planted each year if so required, from the 10th year of estab- lishing the seed garden. However, if only the Malaysian Yellow Dwarfs were to be finally used then the 50 ha under this variety would allow about 2,400 ha of hybrids to be planted each year. 2/ 1/ To supplement the 50 ha unit proposed under the FRG project (para. 3.07(b)). 2/ Combined with the 30 ha of Malaysian Yellow under the FRG project the total area plantable would be 3,800 ha. - 19 - Hybrid Seed Nut Production and Area Plantable from 80 ha. Mother Palms No. of Seed Nuts Dwarfs Seed Nuts Per Total After Plantable Ratio Pollinated Harvested Palm Produced Selection 2/ Area 3/ Dwarfs:Hyb. (Yr) 1/ (Yr) ( 000) ( 000) (Ha) (Ha) (Yr. 4) (Yr. 5) 20 288 259 970 1:12 (Yr. 5) (Yr. 6) 40 576 518 1,940 1:24 (Yr. 6) (Yr. 7) 60 864 778 2,914 1:36 (Yr. 7) (Yr. 8) 70 1,008 907 3,397 1:42 (Yr. 8) (Yr. 9) 80 1,152 1,037 3,884 1:48 (Yr. 9) (Yr. 10) 80 1,152 1,037 3 884 1:48 1/ Yr. 0 is year of planting. Density 180 palms/ha (Dwarfs). 2/ Assumes 10% rejection of nuts. 3/ Assumes 267 nuts required per ha field planted. Planting density (Hybrids) 160 palms/ha plus 5% for infillings. Culling % - 30% in beds, 10% in polybags. 4.16 The Project would provide for importation of seed nuts of Dwarf varieties and their establishment and maintenance in the seed garden. The management, and supervision of the garden would be done by the Plant Breeder engaged under the FRG project to initiate a breeding program and a seed multiplication unit (para. 3.07b). GOT would ensure that the land required for the establishment of the seed garden would be available and this would be a condition of disbursement against the seed garden component. Soil Survey 4.17 A detailed soils map of the total coconut growing areas is presently not available. Ad hoc hydrological studies have recently been carried out in relation to specific Water Master Plan studies in the Tanga, Coast, Mtwara and Lindi Regions. A comprehensive knowledge of the potential of the coconut areas is essential to guide both the proposed pilot project as well as future projects. The Project would provide funds for engaging consultants to under- take a soil and hydrological survey of the coconut areas with a view to (a) selecting four sites of about 50 ha each, suitable for the varietal trials and a site for the proposed 100 ha seed garden, and (b) preparing a land suitabil- ity map for coconuts which would form the basis for selection of areas for future coconut rehabilitation projects. 4.18 Within the four regions earmarked for the varietal trials, i.e. Tanga, Coast, Mtwara/Lindi, Zanzibar, the Ministry of Agriculture would, with - 20 - the assistance of the consultants, select potential areas for the varietal trial sites. The consultants would then, through field surveys, determine exact locations of the sites. The selection of the sites would be based on the following main criteria: (i) the site would be as closely representative as possible in terms of soils and topography, of the main coconut growing areas in the region in which it is located. (ii) the site would be accessible during all times of the year and not subject to waterlogging or flooding for prolonged periods of time. It does not necessarily have to be sited on a main road but would as far as practicable, be located near a town for ease of stationing staff. (iii) the site would be such that a fairly homogenous, contiguous, and relatively flat 50 ha. of land with soil suitable for cultivation of coconuts would be available. 4.19 In order to save time, selection of the trial sites would be done prior to Project start-up. Retroactive financing for engaging the consultants is provided (para 4.33). The selection of the trial sites, in consultation with IDA, is a condition of Project effectiveness. 4.20 The preparation of the land suitability map for coconuts would be done over a longer period but in time for the information to be available for the preparation of the Coconut Master Plan (para. 3.08). Information on soils, hydrology, climate, present land use, agronomic requirements of the coconut palm, local experience etc. would contribute towards the prepa- ration of the map which would indicate area potential, and suitability for coconuts. Technical Assistance 4.21 An experienced Coconut agronomist and a Plantation Manager would be recruited internationally for the full Project period. The Agronomist would have overall responsibility for planning and implementing the Varietal trials as well as assist the Plantation Manager in the planning of the Main- tenance and Rehabilitation trials and interpretation of results. The Planta- tion Manager would be responsible for the implementation of the Maintenance and Rehabilitation trials. Both the Agronomist and the Plantation Manager would also be responsible for on-the-job training, of Tanzanian agronomists and Assistant plantation managers assigned to the Project. 4.22 The Coconut agronomist would have four Tanzanian agricultural staff (minimum Diploma level) who would assist in the implementation of the trial program. The local staff would be stationed in the vicinity of the trial sites and provide the day-to-day supervision of the trials. - 21 - 4.23 The Plantation Manager would be assisted by four local staff (minimum Diploma level) in Zanzibar and the existing station managers at the Chembezi Station and the Zegereni State Farm. 4.24 Assurances were obtained that the expatriate staff to be appointed would have qualifications, experience, and terms and conditions of employment satisfactory to IDA. The appointment of the Coconut Agronomist to the Project is a condition of Project effectiveness. The appointment of the Plantation Manager is a condition of disbursement for the Improved maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials Component of the Project. Training 4.25 The Project would provide for the practical training of Tanzanian staff in coconut husbandry, replanting and rehabilitation methods and planta- tion management. This would include aspects related to seednut and seedling selection, nursery methods and techniques, field preparation and planting, fertilizers, weeding, pest and disease control, collection and compilation of data. In addition to the on-the-job training (para 4.21) the Project would also provide for training in coconut growing countries, e.g. Ivory Coast, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, with a view to creating a core of local staff with some experience and knowledge of coconut rehabilitation programs. Short-Term Consultants and Laboratory Services 4.26 It is envisaged that additional expertise would be needed from time to time to provide guidance or second opinions on specific aspects particu- larly technical aspects, e.g. soil fertility, plant nutrition, plant diseases. Six man-months of short-term consultancies would, therefore, be financed under the Project. Assurances were obtained that the consultants to be employed would have terms of reference, qualifications, experience, and terms and conditions of employment satisfactory to IDA. Also, to strengthen the cap- ability of the Project staff to effectively carry out the various studies and trials and to assist them in monitoring and evaluating crop responses, provi- sion would be made for obtaining overseas laboratory services, e.g., for foliar analysis, to supplement laboratory facilities and services available within the country. Feasibility Study for Phase II 4.27 Funds would be provided to enable the GOT to engage consultants to assist in the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of the Coconut Program as identified in the proposed Coconut Master Plan (3.08). Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the consultants to be employed would have terms of reference, qualifications, experience, and terms and conditions of employment satisfactory to IDA. - 22 - Project Management and Implementation Consultants 4.28 In view of the shortage of local staff with the necessary technical expertise and experience to undertake the Pilot Project on a full time basis, expatriate technical assistance would be needed to assist GOT in the manage- ment and implementation of the Project. Also to ensure maximum cooperation and coordination of activities of the two complementary projects, i.e. FRG and IDA funded projects, it would be advantageous that the two projects be managed and implemented by the same management team. GOT has formally requested GTZ, which is implementing the FRG Project, to undertake the execu- tion of proposed Pilot Project. GTZ has indicated strong interest in this proposal. Completion in a form satisfactory to IDA, of an agreement between GOT and GTZ for the management and implementation of the Project, is a condition of Project effectiveness. C. Project Costs 4.29 The total costs of the Project would be Tsh 70.9 million (US$8.5 million), of which Tsh 53.1 million (US$6.4 million) (75 percent) represents the foreign exchange costs. The Project costs do not include any local taxes and duties. 1/ The phasing of Project costs are summarized in Table T-5 and costs for each of the components are given in Table T-5a through T-5k. Project costs are summarized below: 1/ The Project would be exempted from identifiable taxes and duties. - 23 - Foreign Base Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange Cost (Tsh'O00) (US$'000) % % Varietal Trials 6,988 7,465 14,453 842 899 1,741 52 28 Improved Maintenance & Rehabilitation Trials 4,149 10,102 14,251 500 1,217 1,717 71 27 Seed Garden 702 3,031 3,733 85 365 450 81 7 Soil Survey - 3,500 3,500 - 422 422 100 7 Technical Assistance - 8,000 8,000 - 964 964 100 15 Training - 600 600 - 72 72 100 1 Consultants & Over- seas Laboratory Services - 880 880 - 106 106 100 2 Phase II Feasibility Study - 600 600 - 72 72 100 1 Project Management Fee - 4,909 4,909 - 591 591 100 9 Total Base Cost 11,839 39,087 50,926 1,427 4,708 6,135 77 100 Physical Contingencies 993 2,248 3,241 120 271 391 69 6 Price Contingencies 4,755 11,996 16,751 573 1,445 2,018 71 33 Total Project Cost 17,587 53,331 70,918 2,120 6,424 8,544 75 138 4.30 Project costs have been estimated on the basis of prices prevailing in March, 1980. Physical contingencies of 10 percent have been included on all costs except manpower. Price contingencies on imported vehicles and equipment, fertilizer and internationally recruited staff and consultants have been included at annual rates of 10.5% in 1980/81, 9% in 1981/82, 8% in 1982/83 and 7% thereafter. For local equipment, staff costs and other expenditures price contingencies have been included at annual rates of 11% in 1980/81, 10% in 1981/82 and 9% thereafter. For civil works, higher price contingencies have been included at annual rate of 12% in 1980/81, reflecting the pressure on construction industry capacity. Price contingencies total 30% of project base line costs. 4.31 Included in the costs is provision for two internationally recruited staff (para 4.21) who would provide a total of 120 man-months of service to the Project at an estimated total cost of Tsh 8.0 million (US$964,000). The average cost per man-month (salary, travel, subsistence) is estimated at Tsh 67,000 (US$8,000). - 24 - 4.32 In addition, Project costs also provide for a total of 12 man-months of short-term consultancies (paras 4.26, 4.27) at an estimated total cost of Tsh 1.2 million (US$145,000). The average cost per man-month (salary, fee, travel, subsistence) is estimated at Tsh 100,000 (US$12,000). 4.33 Provision has been made for consultants to be engaged to assist the GOT identify and select suitable sites for the varietal trials and the seed garden (para 4.17). To get the Project to an early start, it is important that these sites be selected early. Retroactive financing of Tsh 1,245,000 (US$150,000) is therefore provided to enable this task to be completed before Project start-up. Further, an advance of US$288,000 was granted in May, 1980 to GOT through the Project Preparation Facility (PPF) for (a) pro- curement of seednuts for the seed garden, (b) appointment of the coconut- agronomist, (c) procurement of a vehicle for the agronomist, and (d) training of local agronomists in coconut husbandry. 4.34 An estimated Project management fee for the Agency (GTZ) has 41so been provi,ded for in the Project costs. The fee is based on the following: 9% of actual costs for procurement of equipment, machinery and imported seednuts (i,n calculating the fee for the seednuts only the cost of the seednuts, excluding freight charges, would be taken into account), and 15% of the amounts payable tp expatriate staff and consultants. GTZ Headquarters costs and office costs in the field have also been provided for. D. Financing 4.35 The financing of Project costs would be as follows: US$ million % IDA 6.8 80 Government of Tanzania 1.7 20 8.5 100 4.36 The proposed IDA credit of SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) would be on standard terms to the Government of Tanzania and would cover all the foreign exchange costs of the Project (US$6.4 million) and 19% of local costs, or about 80% of total Project costs. Government of Tanzania would finance the remaining US$1.7 million. 4.37 Credit funds to cover capital expenditures (Tsh 13.6 million includ- ing contingencies) would be channeled by IDA to GTZ (agency responsible for implementation of the Pilot Project (para 5.01) against suppliers invoices and bills for services performed. GTZ's operating costs and fee (Tsh 6.7 million including contingencies) would be reimbursed from IDA credit funds every six months. Costs of engaging expatriate staff, consultants and use of overseas - 25 - laboratory services (Tsh 17.5 million) would be channeled by IDA to GTZ every month against bills for services rendered. The remainder of the credit funds and GOT contributions (Tsh 32.8 million) would be channeled by IDA and GOT to GTZ against quarterly statements of expenditure. These terms and conditions of this financing plan were agreed at negotiations. V. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION A. Management 5.01 The Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) would be responsible for the Project. To assist Kilimo in implementation of the Project, and in view of of the fact that there is need for close cooperation and coordination of the two Projects, i.e. FRG and IDA funded projects, GTZ would be contracted to implement the Project. GTZ would be responsible for management, execution, recruitment, procurement and reporting as related to the Project. The GTZ Project Team Leader would also assume the overall role of Project Manager and would report directly to the Director, Crop Production, Kilimo (Chart C-1). 5.02 The Project Manager would be assisted in the detailed planning and execution of the plans by the internationally recruited Coconut Agronomist and Plantation Manager (para 4.21). He would, as part of his activities also draw up a training program for the local staff and ensure its implementation. Separate Project accounts would be maintained and audited accounts submitted to IDA (para 5.08). 5.03 The implementation of the Project is scheduled as shown in Chart C-2. B. Procurement 5.04 Procurement under the project would be in accordance with Bank/IDA guidelines, specifically: (a) orders for new vehicles and spare parts and tractors, attach- ments and spare parts (US$0.7 million) would be bulked as far as practicable and orders of US$100,000 and above would be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) from suppliers who maintain (or agree to maintain) in Tanzania ade- quate after-sales service and inventory of spare parts; (b) orders for vehicles, tractors, and equipment below US$100,000 would be procured in accordance with existing local competitive bidding procedures which are satisfactory; however, these orders would not exceed US$100,000 in aggregate; (c) orders for farm tools (US$14,000), office equipment (US$27,000), pump sets and barbed wire fencing (US$25,000) would be bulked to the maximum extent possible, and would be procured on the basis of local competitive bidding procedures which are satisfactory; - 26 - (d) contracts for the construction of office, store and garage at each of the varietal trial sites (US$128,000) would be too small and scattered to attract international interest. Procurement would, therefore, be by contracts awarded following local competitive bidding procedures; (e) different varieties of coconuts for the varietal trials and seed garden (US$0.7 million including air freight) can only be procured either from Ivory Coast or from 2-3 countries in Asia. Procurement would, therefore, be on the basis of the availability of varieties required, price and freight cost; seed nuts of the local variety (US$0.3 million) would be procured from individual farmers using local procedures which are satisfactory. (f) Fertilizer (US$0.9 million) would be procured using local procedures which are satisfactory. 5.05 Draft tender documents for all contracts expected to cost in excess of US$100,000 would be submitted to IDA for approval before bid invitations are issued, and bid analysis and recommendations for award would be submitted to IDA for comment before contracts would be awarded. In the evaluation of bids for (a) above, bonafide domestic manufacturers would be accorded a preference of 15 percent or the existing rate of duty, whichever is lower. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the procurement procedures outlined above would be followed. C. Disbursement 5.06 Disbursement of funds from the Credit would be on the following basis: (a) 100% of foreign and 85% of local costs of vehicles, tractors and attachment and spare parts [SDR 0.5 million (US$0.7 mil- lion)]. (b) 100% of foreign costs of imported seed nuts required for the varietal trials and seed garden [SDR 0.5 million (US$0.7 million)]. (c) 95% of the costs of construction of office, store and garage at each of the varietal trial sites, office equip- ment, pump sets and wells, barbed wire and miscellaneous tools ISDR 0.2 million (US$0.2 million)]. (d) 100% of the costs of technical assistance, consultants' services and training [SDR 2.2 million (US$2.9 million)]. (e) 100% of foreign and 85% of local costs of fertilizers [SDR 0.7 million (US$0.9 million)]. - 27 - (f) 100% of the costs of locally procured seed nuts for the nurseries [SDR 0.2 million (US$0.3 million)]. (g) an unallocated amount of SDR 0.9 million (US$1.2 million) representing contingencies on items (a) to (f), and trans- ferrable to them as required. 5.07 All disbursements under (a), (b), (c) (d) and (e) would be fully documented. Disbursement against (f) would be on the basis of statements of expenditure signed by the Project Manager. Funds remaining in the Credit at Project completion would be cancelled, unless otherwise agreed by IDA. A schedule showing the estimated pattern of disbursements under the Project is at Table T-4. D. Accounts and Audit 5.08 Separate accounts relating to expenditures under the Project would be kept by GTZ. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that these accounts would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA, and that such audited accounts would be submitted to GOT and IDA within six months of the end of each financial year. The auditors would specifically review and comment on the procedures used for control of disbursement against statements of expenditure. E. Reporting, Monitoring and Evaluation 5.09 Detailed quarterly reports of physical implementation and the use of funds together with technical progress and evaluation reports (para 5.10) would be submitted by the Project Manager to Kilimo and to IDA. Particular attention would be paid in these reports to: (a) the progress of the coconut trials component, in terms of the establishment of the trials, nurseries, and seed garden, pro- curement of imported and local coconuts, construction of offices, stores and garages, procurement of tractors and vehicles, etc.; (b) the progress of the survey component, in terms of engagement of consultants and preparation of reports and maps; (c) the progress in allocating staff to various components of the project; (d) training local staff. 5.10 During the course of implementation the Project Manager, would coordinate the compilation of the technical progress and evaluation reports of the Coconut Agronomist, the Plantation Manager and the Plant Breeder (FRG funded but responsible for the seed garden component). These reports would be incorporated in the Quarterly Progress reports. - 28 - 5.11 An integral part of improving the management and implementation practices of the Project would be the monitoring and evaluation activities. PPMB would monitor and evaluate all Project activities and at the end of each year submit to Kilimo and IDA a report of its findings. PPMB would also assist in the preparation of the feasibility study (para. 4.27) for the next phase of the Coconut Program. 5.12 Within six months of the completion of disbursements, Kilimo, together with GTZ, would prepare and submit to IDA a Project Completion Report, analyzing the implementation of the Project and its impact in relation to its objectives. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. VI. PROJECT BENEFITS 6.01 The proposed Project would constitute the preparation stage in a long term development program of major importance to the population in the coastal regions of mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, and to the country as a whole in general. The principal objective is to provide a sound basis for the rational development of the coconut industry. The individual components of the Project are expected to result in (a) the development of an integrated technical package which could subsequently be applied to the extensive coconut areas and arrest and reverse the decline in coconut production; (b) the devel- opment of information related to suitability of areas for coconut cultivation which would be invaluable in planning for subsequent rehabilitation and devel- opment phases; and (c) the development of a core of Tanzanian personnel with experience and expertise in coconut husbandry and rehabilitation techniques. The Project also provides, within the scope of these activities, opportunity to test and develop approaches to farmer participation. 6.02 The full impact of the proposed Project would only be felt when the research results are applied on an extensive basis in subsequent phases. The benefits of the Project cannot, therefore, be quantified since the activities included are essentially technology development activities. There is some risk of delays in implementation since seed nuts for the varietal trials have to be obtained from other coconut growing countries and this involves coordi- nation of seed nut production and shipment of the nuts. The prospects for successful implementation of the Project components are favorable, particu- larly since the management and implementation of the Project would be con- tracted out to the German Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ). 6.03 The development of a technical package needed to rehabilitate Tanzania-s coconut industry and its impact on supply from future development phases could be expected some time after 1985 when improved techniques applied to the existing 125,000 ha of coconuts would result in estimated production increases of about 90-100 million nuts annually. Increased pro- duction from new plantings could only be expected after year 1990. Assuming that during a first 5-year phase of a production project 5,000 ha would be planted with hybrids, they are estimated to produce about 88 million nuts annually. - 29 - VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.01 During negotiations, assurances were obtained that: (a) GOT would ensure that eight tractors are allocated to the Project in Zanzibar (para 4.10); (b) the expatriate staff to be appointed shall have qualifications, experience, and terms and conditions of employment satisfactory to IDA (para 4.24); (c) Consultants employed under the Project would have qualifica- tions, experience and terms of reference and conditions of employment satisfactory to IDA (paras 4.26,4.27); (d) the financing of Project costs, procurement, and reporting procedures, would be followed as outlined (paras 4.35-4.37; 5.04-5.05; 5.09-5.11); (e) within six months of the completion of disbursements Kilimo together with GTZ, would prepare and submit to IDA a Project Completion Report (para 5.12); (f) separate accounts relating to Project expenditures would be kept by GTZ, on behalf of Kilimo, audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA and submitted to IDA within six months of the end of each financial year (para 5.08). 7.02 Conditions of Credit Effectiveness: (a) selection, in consultation with IDA, of sites for the varietal trials and the seed garden (para 4.19); (b) appointment of the internationally recruited Coconut Agronomist. (c) appointment of management consultants for the implementation of the project (para 4.28). 7.03 Conditions of Disbursement: (a) It would be a condition of disbursement against the funds for the seed garden that land suitable for the purpose is made available (para 4.16); - 30 - (b) it would be a condition of disbursement against the funds for the improved maintenance and rehabilitation trials component, that the Plantation Manager had been appointed (para 4.24). 7.04 The above assurances having been obtained, the proposed Pilot Proj- ect would constitute a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) on standard terms to the Government of Tanzania. Chart C-1 TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT Implementation Schedule 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Component -Q1 02 03 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 04 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 03 Q4 01 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q01 Q2 03 Q4 1 Varietal Trials * a = 2 Improved Maintenance and ml __i Rehabilitation Trials 3. Seed Garden _ ___i 4. Soil Survey- -- 5. Technical Assistance OMNIm _ _ 6. Trainingm - -m- - m - - m - - - --- - 7. Short-Term Consultants and - _ _ - a * - _ _ - _ -_- - - Laboratory Services 8. Feasibility Study Phase II 9. Management and Implementation - _ _ _ - _ Consultants =7 | -_ Project Period - - IIIIaeePlanning/Procurement _m mplementation * _ * Implementation as and when required World Bank - 21486 Chart C-2 TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT ORGANIZATIONAL CHART MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE [DIRECTOR, CROP PRODUCTION PROJECTMANAGER (GTZ) Coconut Agronomist | , I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Plant Breeder (GTZ) L
World Bank Group · Staff Appraisal Report
Tanzania - Coconut Pilot Project
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Organisation
World Bank Group
Document type
Staff Appraisal Report
Country
Tanzania
Source
World Bank