Cameroon - Fourth Railway Project

Document of The World ank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE" 1COPY Report No.P2508-CM REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN AND CREDIT FOR THE FOURTH RAILWAY PROJECT IN CAMEROON June 6, 1979 This report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing the views of the World Bank. The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  CAMEROON FOURTH RAILWAY PROJECT CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS CIJRRENCY UNIT CFA Franc (CFAF) US$ 1 = CFAF 220 /1 CFAF 1,000 - US$ 4.6 CFAF 1,000,000 - US$ 4,545 1/ Floating exchange rate. A.RREVIATIONS MINEH Ministry of Equipment and Housing MINEP 5 Ministry qf Economy and Planning MOT Ministry of Transport Regifercam = Regie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CAMEROON FOURTH RAILWAY PROJECT LOAN AND CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower - Bank Loan: Regie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun - IDA Credit: United Republic of Cameroon Guarantor - Bank Loan: United Republic of Cameroon Amount: US$27.0 million Bank Loan US$20.0 million IDA Credit Terms: Loan: 20 years including 5 years of grace at annual interest of 7.9 percent. Credit: Standard On Lending Terms: The IDA Credit would be on-lent to REGIFERCAM by the Government in local currency, on the same terms and conditions as the Bank loan. Project Description: The objectives of the proposed project are: (i) to increase the efficiency of Regifercam's traffic handling facilities in the Douala area by grouping in one central location all the operations now carried out in four different stations and to provide sufficient capacity to handle traffic growth during the period 1981 to 1985 and provide potential for further capacity increases at low marginal cost; (ii) to provide Regifercam with adequate locomotive and rolling stock maintenance facilities to enable it to handle the additional equipment being procured; (iii) to improve the efficiency of the administrative and technical departments; (iv) to assist the railway in buying locomotive spare parts and railway equipment; and (v) to improve and expand training facilities and programs within Regifercam. The project has five main components: the new Douala marshalling yard including the infrastructure for a passenger station; the provision of railway equipment; the expansion of the workshops and the construction of new maintenance facilities at Yaounde; the provision of technical assistance for improvements in operations and manage- ment and consulting services for feasibility and engineering studies and supervision; and training. The major risk is that Regifercam may face a short- fall in freight traffic below forecast levels once improvements are made to the Yaounde-Douala road. Furthermore, additional tariff increases after FY1981 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. It contents may not otherwise be disclised without World Bank authorization.  - ii - to maintain Regifercam's financial equilibrium without resorting to Government subsidies may be difficult to implement if there is strong competi- tion from the road. However, a project specific sensitivity analysis indicates, under the most pessimistic assumptions, that in FY1985 the railway will be CFAF 1.7 billion (US$8 million), the equiv- alent of about 25 percent of net operating revenues, better off with the project than without it. Estimated Costs 1/ Foreign US$ Million as % Local Foreign Total of Total A. New Douala station 4.4 12.8 17.2 74 B. Railway equipment - 3.7 3.7 100 C. Workshop expansion 1.1 5.3 6.4 83 D. Yaounde locomotive running shed 0.8 2.2 3.0 73 E. Yaounde rolling stock maintenance facilities 0.2 0.9 1.1 82 F. Operations and management assistance 0.7 3.8 4.5 84 G. Training 1.2 3.6 4.8 75 Total base costs 8.4 32.3 40.7 79 Physical contingencies 1.0 3.8 4.8 - Price contingencies 2.4 9.3 11.7 - Total 11.8 45.4 57.2 79 H. Loan S4-CM refinancing - 2.0 2.0 100 TOTAL 11.8 47.4 59.2 80 Financing Plan: US$ Million Local Foreign Total IBRD - 27.0 27.0 IDA - 20.0 20.0 Regifercam 11.8 0.4 12.2 Total 11.8 47.4 59.2 1/ Net of taxes and duties.  - iii - Estimated Disbursements: 1/ US$ Million Fiscal Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 Annual 14.2 23.6 8.8 0.4 Cumulative 14.2 37.8 46.6 47.0 Rate of Return: 18 percent. Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 2353-CM dated June 19, 1979. 1/ Refinancing of Loan S4-CM is included in this disbursement schedule.   INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO REGIFERCAM WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON AND CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR A FOURTH RAILWAY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan for the equivalent of US$27.0 million to the Regie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun (Regifercam) with the guarantee of the United Republic of Cameroon and credit for the equivalent of US$20.0 million to the United Republic of Cameroon to help finance the proposed Fourth Railway Project. The Bank loan would have a term of twenty years, including five years of grace, with interest at 7.9 percent per annum; the development credit would be on standard IDA terms. The IDA credit would be relent to Regifercam by the Government in local currency on the same terms as the Bank loan. The grant element corresponding to this Bank/IDA blend would be 42.41 percent. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "United Republic of Cameroon Economic Memorandum" (No. 1798-CM), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 5, 1978. Annex I provides basic country data. Economic Potential 3. Cameroon has a population of about 7.8 million (1977) and covers an area of 475,000 km2. The country's natural resources are considerable and varied, but not always easily accessible. Soils and climatic conditions per- nit cultivation of a wide range of crops, and the forest areas of the south- east contain large untapped timber resources. The north holds promising potential for livestock development. The main opportunities for development in Cameroon lie in the expansion of agricultural production, including for- estry, and the processing of agricultural and forestry products for export. Offshore oil and gas exploration has yielded modest results. Trade, trans- portation and transit services are other important economic activities. Cameroon's main economic centers are separated by vast underpopulated areas; furthermore, the country's transport facilities also serve landlocked Chad. As a result, a large port and adequate inland transport infrastructure are essential for promoting agriculture, forestry and industry, and strengthening Cameroon's role as a regional trade center. Past Performance 4. During the Second Plan period (1966-71), GDP increased at a high rate of 7.6 percent per annum. However, during the Third Plan period  - 2 - (1971-76), output grew at only 2.5 percent per annum for a number of reasons: (i) the drought which affected the north of Cameroon in 1972 and 1973; (ii) the impact of world-wide recession and unfavorable terms of trade; (iii) serious difficulties in maintaining and expanding Cameroon's main tree crops, compounded by the failure of producer prices to keep up with those of compet- ing food cash crops and inputs; and (iv) the limited size, early saturation, and slow expansion of the domestic market for import substituting manufac- tures. The terms of trade improved during 1966-71 but deteriorated during 1971-76. As a result, gross domestic income increased faster than GDP, at 8.3 percent per annum during 1966-71, but grew by only 2.4 percent per annum during 1971-76. Population growth is estimated at about 1.8 percent per annum in the 1960s, about 1.9 percent until the mid 1970s and about 2.3 percent from 1975-80. Per capita GNP reached about US$340 in 1977. 5. During the 1960s, a confluence of a number of favorable factors led to the high growth of output and income. Agriculture, accounting for about one-third of GDP, increased at a rate of 5.5 percent per annum during 1966-71. Except for cotton, rubber, millet/sorghum, most agricultural crops, livestock, fishing and forestry experienced high growth rates thanks to favorable supply and demand conditions such as high producer prices, high domestic income growth, and rapid economic expansion abroad. For example, in the 1960s although Cameroon already faced the problem of the increasing age of its cocoa and coffee trees, supply was still able to increase reflecting the high level of new planting during the 1950s and early 1960s. In addition, the Government was able to maintain adequate cocoa producer prices even when export prices dropped because of the reserves built up earlier in the cocoa stabilization fund. Manufacturing and mining, accounting for 11 percent of GDP, increased at 12 percent per annum during 1966-71 due mainly to the rapid development of import substitution industries, particularly manufactured consumer goods, facilitated by the high rate of domestic income growth and the availability of foreign exchange for the purchase of inputs and intermediate goods. The high rate of agricultural and industrial expansion was accompanied by the rapid growth of construction activities, public administration and other services. 6. In contrast, during the Third Plan period, a number of external and internal factors led to a much reduced growth in output and income. Agricul- tural growth declined to only 3.6 percent per annum, influenced particularly by commercial crops (1.3 percent per annum, or less than one-tenth of the preceding rate), while on the other hand, production of the staple food crops expanded at about 6 percent per annum reflecting increasing demand and high prices for such crops in urban areas. Growth in commercial forestry produc- tion declined sharply due to reduced Western European demand, lower domestic construction activities, and some transportation bottlenecks, while the drought cut growth in livestock production (mainly cattle in the north) from 7.2 percent to 3.3 percent per annum. Cocoa and arabica coffee, accounting for about 55 percent of commercial crops, actually decreased in production, mainly because of the failure of cocoa and coffee producer prices to keep up with those of competing food cash crops, the termination of the foreign supported fertilizer subsidy program for arabica coffee, the increasing age of cocoa and coffee trees, unfavorable climatic conditions in some years, and inadequate Government services to counter the black pod disease of the cocoa  -3- trees. The record for the other main commercial crops was much better. The declining trend in cotton experienced in the earlier Plan period was reversed in large part through the efforts of SODECOTON, a specialized public enter- prise; reversal from decline to growth in rubber and an acceleration in growth of oil palm were facilitated by two plantation projects assisted by the World Bank Group and other co-donors. Growth in manufacturing slowed, following the first wave of import substitution. With rising costs and expanded claims on available public revenues, real growth in public administration was also reduced below the 1966-71 rate. Construction actually declined during 1971-76 and with a deceleration in exports, near stagnation in imports and the low growth in real income throughout the economy, other services (mainly trade and transport) increased only at one percent per annum. Investment and Savings 7. During the Second Plan period (1966-71), the investment rate, in- cluding increases in stocks, exceeded 16 percent of GDP, and gross domestic savings and gross national savings were respectively 13.4 and 12.6 percent of GDP. Foreign resources financed about 33 percent of investment during this period. During the Third Plan period, despite slow income growth, the investment rate increased to 18.1 percent of GDP, as the share of public investment increased to almost 70 percent of total fixed investment. Gross domestic savings and gross national savings rose to 16.4 and 13.9 percent of GDP, but debt service increased by 60 percent from a small base. External resources therefore continued to finance about one-third of total investment during this period. This substantial improvement in savings during 1971-76 was due to a drastic reduction in the real growth of consumption, particularly private consumption, to less than 2 percent per annum during 1966-71. One of the prices paid for the substantial improvement in savings was, however, a limitation on farmer's earnings in tree crops, which provided inadequate incentives to induce farmers to obtain more output from the existing trees and to do sufficient treatment and new plantings to maintain and expand production capacity. The maintenance of a high investment rate during a period of low output growth resulted in an apparent reduction in efficiency of investment. Some reduction in capital productivity was also attributable to investments, such as oil exploration and transport infrastructure, which would lead to production increases only a number of years later, and social infrastructure investments which would increase welfare more rapidly than output. During this period there was considerable progress in the development of high level human manpower. For example, the number of physicians increased by more than 50 percent (decreasing the population per physician rate to about 20,000), dentists more than doubled and pharmacists increased by more than five times. Public Finance and Balance of Payments 8. Budgetary revenue was respectively 16.6 and 17.2 percent of GDP during 1966-71 and 1971-76, while public savings after debt service as a percentage of total public investment declined from about 39 percent in 1966-71 to about 36 percent in 1971-76. The balance of payments did not become a problem until 1974-76. Imports increased rapidly in 1975 and 1976  - 4 - as a result of world-wide inflation and heavy public development expenditure, especially in capital goods. At the same time, agricultural exports declined, particularly exports of cocoa and timber, causing sizeable current account deficits. The bulk of the current account deficits was financed by net capital inflows but a substantial drawdown of international reserves also took place in 1975. Therefore, net official international reserves decreased from more than two months in 1974 to less than one month of imports in 1975. In 1977, exports recovered substantially (by 35 percent) but imports also in- creased (by 28.5 percent) because of economic recovery and expanded invest- ment. Gross official international reserves were rebuilt in 1976 and 1977, in part by the use of IMF credit (Oil Facilities and Compensatory Financing), but net official international reserves continued to be less than one month of imports in 1977. This was a low level by international standards but still acceptable considering Cameroon's membership in the Central African Monetary Union. Development Issues and Prospects 9. Cameroon's main medium- and long-term potential lies in the devel- opment, through both industrial plantations and smallholders, of a diversi- fied agricultural sector, comprising export crops and domestic food crops to feed the growing urban population and replace imports, particularly of grains. Implementation of such a strategy depends on an appropriate mix of public intervention and support as well as price and policy measures to stimulate private initiative; net financial returns to the public sector are more difficult to capture than in a less diversified foreign trade-oriented strategy. Factors which further complicate the agricultural development effort in Cameroon are the extensive dispersion of its main economic and population centers separated by vast underpopulated areas, its regional and institutional diversity, the competition between export and cash food crops for the dwindling agricultural labor in some parts of the country, the dependence of a substantial part of public revenue and savings on cocoa and coffee, and the limited availability of skilled agricultural agents and administrators. Through its technical assistance and education projects and through its normal project work, the Bank Group is supporting Cameroon's effort in manpower training and development in the public services in agri- culture, as well as other sectors. In industry the Government has moved to channel more financial resources for investment directly through the public sector, in addition to the indirect support provided by tax incentive and other measures, which have been in existence for many years. The Government has actively participated in a Bank Group study of the manufacturing sector whose results will help to identify bottlenecks and opportunities to develop existing as well as new industrial activities. 10. In the medium-term, GDP growth is projected to accelerate substan- tially because of the expected recovery and expansion in various agricultural products (including forestry), spurred by relatively high international commodity prices, increases in manufacturing and mining production and rapid growth in construction activities and services resulting from expanded invest- ment activities and rapid income growth. The outlook for considerable agri- cultural growth during 1976-81 is based on: the maintenance of cocoa output  - 5 - at near the previous peak level for a number of years; recovery for robusta coffee, continuing expansion for arabica coffee, cotton, rubber, oil palm and most other commercial and food crops, as also for livestock production; and continuing recovery, followed by further expansion, of commercial forestry production. This projection is also based on assessment of the medium-term demand outlook for Cameroon's exports, projects under implementation, and certain policy alternatives. Continuing growth of manufacturing production from existing and expanded facilities (particularly in food, beverages and construction materials) and new manufacturing output of sugar, paper pulp and other products, as well as crude oil and new mining, are projected to result in a marked improvement in manufacturing and mining growth during 1976-81. With the expansion in the productive and investment activities, construction and services are also expected to increase at a high rate. 11. Long-term growth is expected to be somewhat constrained by the worsening terms of trade, which will make it difficult to sustain the high investment rate that is expected to prevail during the 1976-81 period, and by the need for prudent debt management to ensure the country's long-term borrow- ing capacity. Growth prospects will be importantly influenced by the extent to which Cameroon succeeds in the difficult task of maintaining and expanding the country's main traditional export crops, and the large-scale development of still unexploited forestry resources. Results of studies on the forestry potential, forestry sector development policy, investment plans and transport requirements, many of which are part of Bank Group projects, will support the latter development. In addition, there are still uncertain indications for the exploitation of iron ore, but with heavy investment requirements, and long lead times to establish commercially viable export operations, production could probably not begin until the end of the 1980s. Fourth Development Plan (1976-81) 12. Cameroon is implementing its Fourth Economic and Social Development Plan. Private investment is encouraged, under Government guidelines, to expand production capacity in agriculture, forestry, mining and manufacturing. A part of financing of private investment activities, however, will be publicly guaranteed borrowing. The Plan investment program of some US$3.1 billion (in 1974/75 prices) is about 80 percent higher in real terms than the estimated level achieved during the last Plan period and almost triple previous Plan expenditure in nominal terms. Public investment is expected to account for 73 percent of total investment. However, public investment will probably be reduced by 10-20 percent from planned levels for several reasons including: (a) the high dependence of public revenue and savings on cocoa and coffee prices, which are expected to decline substantially in the last three years of the Fourth Plan (1979-81) from their record levels in the past; (b) the need for adequate producer prices to give farmers sufficient incentives for production and new plantings; (c) the rise in import prices, which is expected to continue; and (d) the requirement to keep supplementary borrowing on commercial terms at prudent levels to maintain Cameroon's long-term capacity to borrow. The investment rate during the Fourth Plan period would then be about 22 percent of GDP, and total investment in current prices would be US$3.4-3.7 billion or about US$690-740 million per year.  Financial Prospects and Creditworthiness 13. In the first two years of the Fourth Plan period (July 1976 - June 1978), thanks to favorable terms of trade, public savings after debt service could finance about 65 percent of total public investment. However, in the last three years (July 1978 - June 1981), public savings after debt service are projected to finance only about 30 percent of total public investment and this share of domestic public financing is likely to continue in the longer run. Cameroon will thus have to rely increasingly on external financing for the bulk of its public investment, and foreign official lenders should finance a high proportion of total project costs of externally financed projects, including local costs in appropriate cases. An increasing reliance on foreign borrowing during a period of deteriorating terms of trade will require careful external debt management. In this connection available data shows that borrowing on commercial terms increased significantly in the last year and a half. Nevertheless, Cameroon is judged to be creditworthy for Bank financing over the medium-term on the basis of its ability to maintain and improve productivity in the utilization of the country's resources and its potential in the long-term to further diversify the economy by developing still unexploited resources. In order to keep debt service within reasonable limits, foreign public donors should provide at least 50 percent of public capital assistance on concessionary terms. On this basis, the foreign debt service ratio, 8.6 percent of export earnings in 1977 should be able to be maintained below 15 percent by the mid-1980s. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CAMEROON 14. The Bank Group's commitments in Cameroon now amount to US$376.6 million and cover 29 projects: fourteen in agriculture, nine in transporta- tion, three in education, one in public utilities, one small- and medium-scale enterprise project, and one technical assistance project. Agriculture repre- sents the largest share (44 percent) of our past commitments followed by transport (43 percent). Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits as of April 30, 1979 and includes notes on ongoing projects. Although delays and setbacks have been occasionally encountered in the execu- tion of projects, the Government has consistently shown willingness to col- laborate with the Bank in finding solutions to such problems. 15. For the future, the Bank Group's strategy is to support the Govern- ment in its effort to increase agricultural production, including export- oriented crops, and in the process create productive employment in rural areas; upgrade and improve the operation and maintenance of the country's infrastructure; stimulate investment by local entrepreneurs and increase employment in urban areas; and enhance the efficiency of Cameroon's institu- tions.  -7- 16. The Government rightly attaches priority to the balanced regional development of agricultural resources, and to the improvement of conditions in the rural sector parallel with promotion of plantation agriculture, includ- ing smallholder schemes. Bank Group assistance to Cameroon in agriculture is designed to support these policy objectives. We have helped the Government create an effective and well-managed plantation sector by financing oil palm and rubber plantations in the south and west. The 1975 rubber project is almost completed and we are now preparing a follow-up project to aid further the development of the southwest coastal region. The second SOCAPALM and CAMDEV projects are follow-up operations to successful oil palm projects in the western coastal regions. At the same time, we have assisted, with two SEMRY projects, in promoting smallholder rice irrigation in the north. The ongoing cocoa project is helping to modernize smallholder cocoa growing and to raise rural productivity in areas south and west of Yaounde. Rural devel- opment projects in populated but poor regions are being established with the assistance of the Bank. The Plaine des M'Bo Rural Development Project is financing studies and trial activities to establish whether a full-scale rural development program can be launched. The ZAPI-East Integrated Rural Development Project supports ZAPI's ongoing integrated rural development activities as well as an expansion of ZAPI's activities in eastern Cameroon. The Western Highlands Rural Development Project provides a package of inputs, techniques and infrastructure aimed at improving productivity for the agri- cultural economy of the western part of the country. The Rural Development Fund Project is designed to help the Government establish the machinery for processing and implementing small-scale rural development schemes - initially in the north. An objective of a rural development project that we are pro- posing for the northern region will be to establish planning and coordination capabilities at the provincial level as well as crop diversification, refor- estation, small scale irrigation and rural water supply. The Government's objectives in its rural development policies are to improve income distribu- tion, to achieve a better balance in regional development and to promote essential foodstuff production. The Bank Group intends to increase lending for agriculture to support these efforts. As a corollary, we are preparing the second phase of our livestock development program which began in 1974 and will comprise further livestock development, tse-tse eradication, training and a credit scheme for traditional producers. 17. Recognizing the crucial importance of transportation to economic growth in Cameroon and in neighboring countries, the Government has devoted the largest portion of public investment to this sector. The Bank Group, together with other development institutions, has substantially aided develop- ment of adequate transport facilities. The First and Second Highway Projects were designed to help complete the country's basic trunk road system. The latter project encountered severe cost overruns which were partly alleviated by a Supplementary Credit approved in March 1976 as well as by the elimination of the reconstruction of the Garoua-Figuil section from the project. This section is being financed under the Third Highway Project. The Fourth Highway project, which is also being presented to the Board in June, will concentrate on road maintenance and rehabilitation and will include funds for feasibility  - 8 - studies for the construction of a two-lane heavy duty road between Yaounde and Douala. Given projected traffic increases, and the backlog of required investments in the transport sector, substantial capital outlays are still necessary - particularly for the expansion of the Port of Douala, which is being assisted by a Bank loan and IDA credit, and for related facilities such as those proposed in this report for the Fourth Railway project. An engineer- ing loan, approved in May 1976, helped complete the engineering of the railway station and marshalling yard and would be refinanced under the proposed Fourth Railway Project. A Feeder Roads Project approved in November 1977 will estab- lish institutions for feeder road administration and maintenance in addition to providing the necessary resources for a feeder road program to support high priority agricultural/rural development projects. Future road investments could possibly include financing of strategic international access routes but should place greater emphasis on road maintenance and on developing the network of forestry, feeder and farm access roads. 18. In other sectors, the Small- and Medium-Scale Enterprise Project, approved in 1975, focuses mainly on developing local entrepreneurship and a second project is in preparation. A Third Education Project, approved in April 1976, places special emphasis on rural education and training. Field appraisal has taken place of a water supply project that would provide water to thirteen secondary centres in Cameroon, as well as reinforcement and ex- pansion of the water systems in Douala and Yaounde. For the future, we have begun preparation of an urban development project and have tentatively identified a telecommunications project. A forestry sector mission has just returned from Cameroon and we are tentatively planning an energy sector mission in the next fiscal year, in the expectation that projects will be identified in both these sectors. 19. All these projects include, as needed, training, technical assis- tance, and other provisions necessary for strengthening institutions and improving sector policies. The Technical Assistance Project approved in June 1977 is helping to strengthen Government services in several key Ministries involved in investment planning, policy analysis and project processing. To help achieve the Government's priorities and to support our future lending strategy, continuing emphasis will be required on strengthening the institu- tional framework, particularly concerning sector planning, preparation and implementation in transportation and rural and urban development. 20. During the second half of the sixties, overall disbursements to Cameroon amounted to about US$40-45 million a year. While at the beginning of this period 65 percent of aid funds were grants, the proportion of loans slowly increased. A major part of external assistance was provided by France and was concentrated in infrastructure and productive sectors. The European Development Fund and European Investment Bank directed their lending mainly to agriculture, with infrastructure in second place. Bank and IDA disburse- ments were small during this period. From 1972 to 1976 overall disbursements of foreign aid increased to about US$90 million per year with one-fifth as grants. The Bank and IDA's share of these inflows amounted to about 23 percent. Our lending to Cameroon has been closely coordinated with other  - 9 - donors; in 13 of our 29 projects, joint or parallel co-financing arrangements have been made and we are actively seeking co-financing for several future projects. 21. Public debt outstanding and disbursed as of December 31, 1976 amounted to US$529.3 million. Public debt service as a proportion of export earnings amounted to 5.9 percent in 1976 and is projected to be maintained below 15 percent by the mid-1980's. At that time annual foreign aid disburse- ments may be over US$400 million with only 7 percent consisting of grants. At end-1976 Bank loans accounted for 10.9 percent of Cameroon's public debt outstanding and disbursed, and 11.4 percent of its public debt service. IDA credits accounted for 12.8 percent of public debt outstanding and 1.1 percent of public debt service. The Bank and IDA are expected to account for about 22 percent of total public debt and 13 percent of public debt service in 1983, on the basis of estimates made early last year. 22. In October 1974, Cameroon became IFC's 100th member. IFC's first operation in Cameroon, a US$450,000 underwriting to bring domestic share- holders into a previously wholly foreign-owned shoe manufacturing company, was approved in May 1975. In September 1976, the IFC Board approved an equity investment of nearly US$900,000 in a foreign-owned rubber estate (SAFACAM). The investment will assist in the rehabilitation and diversification of an existing estate that will produce rubber for export and palm oil for the domestic market. The operation will also facilitate participation of domestic shareholders in the estate. In November 1977, the Board approved a third operation, an investment of up to US$125,000 in the share capital of a pro- motional company for maize development. No commitment has yet been made on this investment since the original technical partner has been replaced and major changes have been made in the arrangements expected earlier. The Board approved a second equity investment of US$390,000 in SAFACAM in September 1978. The increased capitalization is required to finance the construction of a palm oil pressing mill. Cameroonian participation again increased with this operation. The Societe Nationale d'Investissement, a national develop- ment bank, is doubling its share in SAFACAM. In April 1979, the Board approved an investment of US$7.86 million consisting of US$7 million in loan and US$0.86 million equivalent in equity in a Cameroonian aluminium producing company, ALUCAM, to help expand the company's production capacity. PART III - THE TRANSPORT SECTOR The Transport System 23. Cameroon's transport system is import/export oriented. The focal point of the network is Douala, the country's principal commercial center, main seaport and site of the only international airport. The main transport arteries are the Douala-Bafoussam-Foumban axis and the Transcameroon corridor (Douala-Yaounde-Ngaoundere-Maroua-Chad border). An efficient transport system  - 10 - is important, not only for internal development and national integration, but also to handle transit traffic for landlocked neighboring Chad and the Central African empire. 24. The transport system is made up of 57,000 km of roads; 1,153 km of railway; one principal and two secondary seaports; one seasonal river port; and one international and 13 smaller airports. As such, it provides reason- ably adequate access to the four regions of main economic activity: the palm oil, rubber and industrial areas along the coast; the densely populated, rich agricultural western region near Bafoussam; the cocoa-producing region near Yaounde; and the densely populated cotton, rice and livestock producing areas in the north around Maroua. 25. On a country-wide basis, road transport is the dominant mode. An exception is the Douala-Yaounde corridor where the railway, described below, carries most freight and a substantial proportion of passenger traffic. The road network comprises about 2,300 km of paved roads, 7,000 km of gravel roads and 48,000 km of earth roads and tracks. The density of the road network varies considerably throughout the country, being greatest in the economically active and heavily populated areas. While there has been a considerable effort to build and rehabilitate paved roads, in recent years the overall condition of the road network has deteriorated somewhat because of low initial construction standards, increasing traffic and insufficient mainten- ance. Unpaved roads, which account for 97 percent of the network, are fre- quently impassable during the rainy season. Consequently, the Government is giving a higher priority to improving road maintenance than in the past and the Bank's proposed Fourth Highway project is designed to support that effort. 26. The principal port, Douala, handles 90 percent of Cameroon's foreign and transit trade, with a throughput of 2.5 million tons. Its capacity will be expanded to about 4 million tons by the ongoing Second Douala Port project (Loan 1321-CM, Credit 657-CM, US$25 million, 1976) due for completion in 1981. The lighterage port of Kribi handles mainly log exports (about 150,000 tons). The sea port of Victoria and river port of Garoua have only marginal traffic. The Cameroon National Port Authority operates the ports at a profit. 27. Cameroon Airlines provides domestic services between Douala, Yaounde and 12 other domestic airports, and international services between Douala, West and East Africa, and Europe. Transport Planning 28. Within its development objectives, the Government is giving priority to transportation and agriculture. Large areas of Cameroon are still isolated and many others are served only by rudimentary roads, therefore, the Govern- ment's objectives in the transport sector are to promote foreign and regional trade, improve access to agricultural areas and to facilitate the marketing of food. The current Fourth Development Plan (FYs1977-81) calls for an in- investment of CFAF 176 billion (US$800 million) over the five year period,  - 11 - an increase of about one third in real terms over the actual transport in- vestment in the Third Plan. While the proportion of total public sector in- vestment in transport is reduced from over 50 percent to 35 percent, its realization is still heavily dependent upon foreign contributions, amounting to 62 percent of total projected investment. 29. The Ministry of Economy and Planning (MINEP), the Ministry of Transport (MOT) and the Ministry of Equipment and Housing (MINEH) are all concerned in some degree with the planning and processing of transport proj- ects. However, their limited staff, barely sufficient when investment de- cisions consisted mainly of ranking high-priority projects on the principal transport routes, is inadequate for the more sophisticated investment choices between competing modes such as rail and road in the Douala-Yaounde corridor. Establishing transport priorities and strengthening the planning effort is, therefore, a necessity. The Bank has had a continuing dialogue on this matter with the Government and, partly as a result of this, the Government has started to take the necessary steps to improve its planning mechanisms. MOT has created a Planning and Coordination Unit, and four expatriate economists are being recruited under Bank-financed projects to provide technical assis- tance and on-the-job training (one to MINEP, two to MOT and one to MINEH). The recent agreement of MINEH to create a Road Planning Unit, together with Bank assistance to Regifercam in improving its operational and planning capability, should ensure improved efficiency in the future. Furthermore, the Government has requested advice from the Bank to carry out an overall transport sector study. The study would be undertaken by Cameroonian pro- fessionals and expatriate experts financed under ongoing transport projects, with Bank staff providing technical assistance during field missions. 30. To date, the Government has tended to take a project by project approach to investment. This has resulted in a road program lacking clearly defined priorities, inadequate attention to road maintenance, and a possibly excessive emphasis on railway infrastructure investment. A study of the *improvements required in the Douala-Yaounde transport corridor which was financed under a Bank project showed that a package comprising a realignment of the Douala-Edea section of the railroad and the construction of a two-lane road between Douala and Yaounde would be economically justified. The study also showed that, at present, a realignment of the railroad sections between Edea and Maloume was not justified. A group of donors (KfW, FED, FAC, CIDA, USAID and CCCE) has agreed to finance the costs of realignment of the Douala- Edea section and work has started. Regarding the Edea-Maloume section, dis- cussions are being held with the Government and the Office du Chemin de Fer du Transcamerounais concerning a study of the optimum form of infrastructure investment in the Edea-Maloume railway section. rhe Government has agreed that it will carry out a study to determine the optimal economic solution for improving the Edea-Maloume Section and will not undertake any capital investment in this section unless it is economically justified (Section 3.03 of the draft Guarantee Agreement). The Government is currently financing a feasibility study on the upgrading of the Douala-Yaounde road to paved standards and the Bank proposes to include additional funds for this purpose in the proposed Fourth Highway project.  - 12 - Regifercam 31. Regifercam is a public sector corporation functioning under Govern- ment guidelines as stipulated in a 1974 presidential decree. The Board of Directors consists of twelve members, mostly Government representatives, in- cluding the corporation's general manager as chairman. Past experience in- dicates that Regifercam operates with a reasonable degree of independence in its day-to-day operations. Regifercam's internal organization is satisfactory in its essential features. The quality of the mostly Africanized management has improved. There remain, however, critical areas of administrative and personnel weakness, and the provision of substantial technical assistance and management training has therefore been included in the proposed project. 32. Regifercam's total staff, of about 5,200 employees, has increased considerably over the past five years but at a slower pace than traffic vol- umes. Regifercam is now preparing a manpower plan, with the assistance of consultants, the primary objectives of which are to reduce overstaffing and ensure a better matching of job requirements and staff qualifications. Regifercam has agreed to submit the draft plan to the Bank for review by June 30, 1980, to implement it over a five-year period after this date and submit to the Bank an annual progress report, and to limit any possible staff increases to imperative needs for railway operations until the plan is finalized and carried out (Section 3.06 of the draft Loan Agreement). The training component of the proposed project is aimed at the improvement of existing training facilities and the development schemes for the retraining of about one half of the present staff and the training of 200 new recruits per year. A management training program would be complemented under the proposed project by on-the-job training by technical assistants, who would staff Organization and Methods units at the level of the main technical departments of the railway. Regifercam has agreed to set up these units by December 31, 1979 and to assign qualified and experienced Cameroonians in adequate numbers to the experts to be employed in the Organization and Methods units (Section 3.08 of the draft Loan Agreement). During negotiations Regifercam agreed to consult annually with the Bank on the railway's expected technical assistance requirements and on measures necessary to meet these (Section 4.03 of the draft Loan Agreement). 33. Regifercam's financial statements are in general based on sound accounting principles. An ongoing reorganization will further improve the accounting and costing systems and Regifercam has agreed to produce annually a comprehensive investment budget and a corresponding financing plan covering all railway-related investment beginning with the fiscal year 1980/81 (Section 5.07 of the draft Loan Agreement). The proposed project provides for technical assistance in these fields and in the areas of planning, budgeting, and financial control, and for a more comprehensive audit. Regifercam has agreed to depreciate its motive power and rolling stock and, beginning FY 1982, its track material on the basis of replacement cost; the replacement cost for motive power and rolling stock will be determined immediately and for the track material in FY82 (Section 5.04 of the draft Loan Agreement).  - 13 - 34. The railway has maintained its productive assets well by timely renewals of its infrastructure together with appropriate, albeit sometimes belated, increases in rolling equipment capacity. Currently, Regifercam is operating 1,153 km of mainline with 47 mainline locomotives, 9 railcars, 31 shunters, about 1,540 commercial freight cars and 105 passenger coaches and baggage vans. Motive power and rolling stock capacity is being increased considerably under financing by Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (France) and the Canadian International Development Agency/Canadian Export Financing Agency. Major investment in passenger rolling stock is contemplated by the railway. In January 1979, the railway submitted to the Bank a passenger transport plan which is presently being implemented. Discussions are under way between the Bank and Regifercam about the number of passenger coaches which should be replaced. Realignment of the Douala-Yaounde section was completed on about 100 km (Maloume-Yaounde) in April 1978 and the works for the realignment of the Douala-Edea section, financed by other donors, started at the end of 1978. Ongoing projects will provide better communications and signalling on the busiest sections of the line, enabling the railway to improve substantially its operations. 35. Although improvements have been evident over the past five years, much remains to be done to achieve full operational efficiency within the railway. The proposed project provides a large technical assistance compo- nent to assist Regifercam in instituting Organization and Methods units within its main technical departments to help improve efficiency. An Action Plan to improve operations has been submitted to the Bank by Regifercam's management and was agreed upon during negotiations. The Plan indicates the operational targets that management undertakes to achieve during the next four years and enumerates the means by which the Action Plan will be implemented (Section 4.04 of the draft Loan Agreement). 36. Regifercam freight traffic grew at about 9 percent per annum in ton kilometers from FY1974 to FY1978, despite a shortage of motive power and rolling stock which has led to a loss of traffic estimated by the railway at about 15% in FY1978. A further growth of about 7% in FY1979 is likely and thereafter a more substantial recovery is expected as six new heavy mainline locomotives and 212 wagons procured under French financing come into effec- tive service during FY1979 and 1980 with beneficial effects on capacity, particularly for timber, cement, petroleum and alumina traffic. The overall effect should be an increase of about 41% in ton kilometers between FY1979 and FY1983. Then, given strong competition from road traffic, railway freight traffic is likely to decline in the first year of completion of the Yaounde- Douala road (probably FY1984) and is unlikely to recover to the FY1983 volume until about FY1988. A growth trend rate of 3 percent per annum for timber and 2 percent per annum for other freight traffic is forecast for FYs1988-2001. Passenger traffic, which has stagnated recently, is also expected to show a small recovery in the future. While these forecasts reflect Regifercam's generally acceptable prospects based on detailed analyses of principal com- modity groupings and are considered realistically attainable, past experience on this railway and in West Africa as a whole suggests that a cautious ap- proach to expectations is justified. Consequently, a sensitivity analysis has  - 14 - been employed with respect to freight traffic which reflects a considerably more modest forecast (50% of the forecasts outlined above) up to and through the period when the Douala-Yaounde road will come into service (see para. 50). The sensitivity forecasts have been used, not only for the economic rate of return calculations, as is usual in such cases, but to assess the financial results and to establish the consequent financial covenants (see para. 53 below). 37. Regifercam's debt service quadrupled from FY1973 to FY1978, due to increased investment and hardening of terms of borrowing, accompanied by only a small increase in cash generation from operations, necessitating borrowing on a larger scale. The railway's delicate financial position was alleviated through subsidies from the Government of Cameroon and the use of bank overdrafts mostly to cover financing gaps in its investment program. Regifercam agreed at negotiations that after FY1979, it will limit bank over- drafts to CFAF 800 million (US$3.6 million) and use them only in exceptional circumstances and for short periods of time (Section 5.10 of the draft Loan Agreement). 38. A completion report has recently been issued for the Second (Loan 1038-CM) and Third (Loan S4-CM) Railway projects. The report finds, in reference to the Second Railway Project that the major problems encountered during execution of the project were the technical difficulties experienced during the construction of the new Japoma bridge, cost overruns due to the large increase on this latter component and shortage of funds caused by currency realignments. Despite these difficulties, the project has been successfully implemented and its rate of return is satisfactory. The report for the Third Railway Project concludes that the major elements originally included in the project have been successfully implemented. Progress in improving management of Regifercam's Operations Department was limited, due mainly to the lack of qualified counterparts, now proposed to be remedied through additional training and technical assistance. The two projects were also instrumental in stopping the deterioration of Regifercam's finances and bringing about some improvement, albeit mostly through tariff increases. Funds available under the Third Railway project, were used to deal with the emerging problem of weak cost control by financing consultants to devise cost control systems and a manpower plan. However, since measurable progress may not be apparent for some time to come, the report recommends that management assistance be continued under the proposed Fourth Railway Project through the provision of technical assistance for management and staff training and for the preparation of further expansion of maintenance facilities. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 39. Regifercam's Investment Plan and the corresponding financing plan for the fiscal years 1979-81 are part of the Government's national develop- ment plan. Forecasts for the years until FY1985 have been established and  - 15 - discussed with Regifercam for the purpose of this project. Total railway in- vestment planned for FYs 1979-81 amounts to CFAF 45.9 billion (US$209 million). During the same period freight capacity is expected to increase by over 40 percent. Since there will be sufficient line capacity to carry this traffic, railway investments will focus on: providing sufficient transport capacity to meet expected demand; upgrading and modernizing existing infrastructure; and improving operational efficiency. In general, the investment plan is well-balanced and adequate to achieve these objectives. France and Canada are financing needed locomotives and freight cars, and the proposed project is designed to achieve the other objectives of the plan. 40. The construction of a new marshalling yard in Douala has long been recognized as necessary. Feasibility and engineering studies for these new facilities were therefore undertaken in the framework of the Third Railway project (Loan S4-CM) in 1976. The project was appraised in May and June 1978. Negotiations for the loan were held in Washington in April 1979. The Cameroon Delegation was led by Mr. Benoit Bindzi, Ambassador of the United Republic of Cameroon in Washington. Project Description 41. The project consists of: (a) the new Douala station including: (i) a marshalling yard with two sets of tracks for freight traffic and a rail bridge for access to the workshops and maintenance facili- ties; (ii) a platform and surfaced areas for cargo-handling, including required service sidings; (iii) a warehouse and its service tracks; (iv) a wagon maintenance shed; (v) various small service buildings and fixed installations including in particular, a signalling system; (vi) internal service roads and parking areas; (vii) tracks and platforms for a passenger station; (viii) a set of tracks for servic- ing and parking passenger coaches; (ix) a public road connection to the freight station and yard; and (x) a road bridge to replace the present level-crossing on the Douala- Yaounde road; (b) railway equipment comprising: (i) track maintenance equip- ment, mainly for renewal; (ii) 50 turnouts for service sidings and renewal (in addition to the 75 required for the new marshalling yard); (iii) 50 bogies to replace those damaged in accidents; (iv) a truck equipped with pump and hoses for the fire department; and (v) locomotive spare parts which will be financed 50 percent by the proposed loan and credit and 50 percent by Regifercam; (c) the expansion of the Douala workshop comprising: (i) the civil works; (ii) the construction of a service station in the  - 16 - vicinity of the new Douala marshalling yard, with refueling facilities; and (iii) machine tools, cleaning and lifting equipment for the workshop. This workshop expansion is the first phase of the implementation of a master plan proposed by the railway and is deemed sufficient to meet traffic and maintenance requirements until at least 1982; (d) the first-phase construction of a locomotive running shed in Yaounde for the running maintenance of all the diesel locomo- tives operating on the Transcameroon railway; (e) Yaounde rolling stock maintenance facilities; a workshop would be constructed in Yaounde for routine checks and maintenance of freight cars and passenger coaches. This would enable the railway to postpone construction of new freight car workshops in Douala until completion of the studies financed in the project; (f) 306 man-months of consulting services and technical assistance for the improvement of railway operations and management, and, additionally, feasibility and engineering studies for the con- struction of maintenance facilities provided for in the project, the preparation of a possible workshop extension and the super- vision of the works under contracts; (g) 194 man-months of technical assistance to strengthen the train- ing department of the railway to develop an improved training scheme based on manpower planning, to train supervisory training staff and instructors and to implement the recommenda- tions of the training study carried out by Consultants; furni- ture and equipment; and the renovation of existing buildings and the addition of classrooms and offices; and (h) the refinancing of the outstanding amount of the engineering loan of the Third Railway Project (Loan S4-CM), as planned under the terms of that loan. Engineering 42. The final engineering of the new Douala station has been carried out with Bank financing by consultants. Cost estimates, implementation schedules and tender documents have been included in the consultants' work, which was finished by the end of 1978. The engineering studies for the rail- way workshop expansion are being carried out by consultants on the basis of a master plan approved by the Bank after review by an experienced independent consultant hired by the Bank. Completion of these studies is expected by September 1979. A preliminary design for the Yaounde locomotive running shed and rolling stock maintenance facilities was prepared by a consultant financed by Regifercam and was reviewed by the Bank in May 1979. The proposed mainten- ance system to be instituted in these new facilities complies with the Banks'  - 17 - recommendations. The final engineering will be undertaken by the consultants carrying out the engineering for the workshop expansion, and is expected to be completed, including the preparation of tender documents, by December 1979. The scope and design of the training component have been defined by consultants under Bank financing and supervision. Implementation 43. Regifercam is competent to carry out and supervise the project with the assistance of consulting engineers. The project is expected to start in October 1979 and be completed by the end of 1982. The purchase of equipment and civil works components are expected to be completed by the end of 1981. A provision for consulting services has been included in the proposed project to assist Regifercam in supervising the civil works contracts, including the manufacturing and installation of the electrical signalling system in the new Douala station and marshalling yard. Regifercam will make appropriate arrange- ments by December 1980, to build an adequate passenger station building by the time of completion of construction of the related facilities listed in para. 41(a) (vii) and (viii) above (Section 3.07 of the draft Loan Agreement). Project Costs and Financing Plan 44. The total cost of the proposed project, net of tax, is estimated at US$59.2 million equivalent, with foreign exchange costs of about US$47.4 mil- lion (81 percent of total), including the refinancing of the outstanding balance of Loan S4-CM (US$2.0 million). Physical contingencies range from 10 percent to 15 percent depending on the component and average 12 percent. Price contingencies are estimated at 10 percent per annum. Cameroonian legis- lation exempts works undertaken by Regifercam from taxes and duties. The proposed project would be financed by a Bank loan of US$27.0 million and an IDA credit of US$20 million, the balance being provided by Regifercam (US$11.8 million equivalent in local costs and US$0.4 million equivalent in foreign costs for locomotive spare parts). The Bank loan and IDA Credit of US$47.0 million would finance 79 percent of total project costs and 99 percent of the foreign exchange costs of the project. The IDA credit would be on-lent to Regifercam by the Government in local currency on the same terms and con- ditions as the Bank loan (Section 3.01(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). The conclusion of a subsidiary loan agreement between the Government and Regifercam, which sets out these on-lending terms, is a con- dition of effectiveness of the proposed credit (Section 5.01(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 45. Retroactive financing of up to US$350,000 is proposed on account of payments made for consultants and experts' services after March 1, 1979. This amount would cover the costs of two items of the technical assistance com- ponent. Finalization of the railway's manpower plan, which is intended to control a tendency to over-staffing, and of a plan for the implementation of improved personnel management techniques would require a total of twenty-four additional man-months of technical assistance; retroactive financing of some  - 18 - US$200,000 is proposed for these items. An amount of US$150,000 of retro- active financing is proposed for the final engineering studies for the con- struction of the Yaounde locomotive running shed and rolling stock maintenance facilities, in order to avoid delay in preparation of this item. Given the urgency of the items and the small amounts involved, this financing seems justified. 46. The total cost per man-month of technical assistance and consulting services is estimated at US$9,970 including salaries and local subsistence allowances but excluding contingencies. These estimates are based on actual costs of contracts awarded under the Third Railway Project. Procurement 47. The main contracts for civil works (US$31 million) and procurement of equipment (US$7.7 million) would be awarded under international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines, and consultants would be selected and appointed on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. An exception would be contracts for small buildings (about US$1.7 million) to be erected in the new Douala station area and at the training center, which will be advertised locally without notification of diplomatic and trade representa- tives. Critical locomotive spare parts will be supplied by the manufacturer of the existing locomotives; the cost, with contingencies, of these spare parts is about US$0.8 million equivalent of which the Bank would finance 50 percent. Disbursements 48. The proceeds of the IDA credit and Bank loan would be disbursed against: (a) imported material and equipment (mainly track material, machinery, spare parts for freight cars and furniture equipment and material for training): 100 percent of the foreign cost or 85 percent of local cost; (b) locomotive spare parts: 50 percent of the foreign cost; (c) civil works, including signalling, telecommunication, water supply and electrical installations with the necessary equipment: 80 percent of cost of contracts; and (d) consulting services and technical assistants: 85 percent of total expenditures. Disbursements will be fully documented. To the extent practicable the pro- ceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed before those of the Bank loan, except for the refinancing of the outstanding balance of the Third Railway Project loan (Loan S4-CM). A condition of disbursement of funds for the  - 19 - Yaounde locomotive running shed and rolling stock maintenance facilities (see para. 41 (d) and (e) above) is that Regifercam shall have furnished to the Bank design and engineering plans for the facilities to be constructed and a proposed maintenance policy for motive power and rolling stock, which are satisfactory to the Bank (para. 4(b) of Schedule 1 to the draft Loan Agreement). Project Benefits and Justification 49. The project has four separately identifiable components: a marshall- ing yard, workshops/running sheds, equipment and technical assistance/studies. The existing marshalling facilities are inadequate and subject to flooding during the frequent heavy rains. The proposed project would improve the effi- ciency of wagon movements and increase capacity. This in turn would avoid divergence of significant volumes of traffic to trucks, an economically more expensive form of transport. The project would provide adequate marshalling capacity to meet the growth in traffic demand at least until 1985 with exten- sions possible at low marginal cost. The rate of return on this project element would be at least 20 percent. The Douala workshops are overworked, reflected in unsatisfactory locomotive availability. A running shed in Yaounde is needed to provide better maintenance, to reduce the average distance to the maintenance facilities, and to provide additional capacity. If these two project elements are not provided, locomotive maintenance will become increas- ingly difficult and consequently locomotive purchase excessive. The benefit from avoidance of reduced availability would give a rate of return of over 17 percent. Railway equipment and wagon bogies are urgently required. New bogies would avoid the need to purchase new wagons. The rate of return on this project element is 15 percent. The overall rate of return on these items is a satisfactory 18 percent, including in the costs technical assistance from which benefits are attributable to the project. 50. Given the uncertainties concerning the future of two of Regifercam's most important sources of revenues: timber and traffic to and from Chad and the Central African Empire, some rather rigorous sensitivity tests were carried out, employing traffic growth at 50 percent of the best estimate and investment costs 10 percent higher. For the total project, with unchanged costs and decreased benefits the rate is 11 percent, with increased costs and unchanged benefits 16 percent and with costs increased and benefits decreased 10 percent. These rates are considered acceptable, particularly in view of the comparatively long gestation period for a project of the complexity of a marshalling yard, and the consequent need for adequate capacity to be built into the project to allow for the possibility of traffic growth exceeding sensitivity forecasts. Financial Evaluation of Regifercam 51. The most important feature of Regifercam's future financial position is the need for a rapid and sustained increase in internal cash generation to alleviate its liquidity shortage and to cope with a rapidly increasing debt  - 20 - service, expected to grow from CFAF 1.9 billion (US$8.6 million) in FY1978 to CFAF 3.6 billion (US$16.4 million) in FY1980 and CFAF 6.5 billion (US$29.5 million) in FY1985. Most of the corresponding investment is needed to in- crease Regifercam's productivity and its capacity to cope with existing and expected traffic demand. Close attention to Regifercam's future capital investment and borrowing is, however, needed and the railway has agreed to seek, until completion of the project, the Bank's approval for any capital investment costing more than US$2.5 million, and to seek the Bank's approval for any long-term borrowing exceeding a periodically agreed aggregate amount (Sections 5.08(a) and 5.09 of the draft Loan Agreement). 52. There is scope during the next three years for increasing Regifercam's internal cash generation through tariff increases, since the railway has little competition from other transport modes. Regifercam will be required to ensure that revenues from freight services on its Western line and passenger services which presently incur high losses, will cover at least 60 percent of the full cost of such services (Section 5.06 of the draft Loan Agreement). The Govern- ment has agreed that it will take appropriate measures to enable Regifercam to carry out this obligation, however, the Government may, during an interim period until 1983, provide specific offsetting subsidies to Regifercam suffi- cient to allow revenues from these services, plus the subsidy, to cover 60 percent of their cost (Section 3.02 of the draft Guarantee Agreement). Road construction between Douala and Yaounde, expected to be completed around 1983, will expose the railway to serious competition for a substantial share of its freight traffic. Thus, tariff increases in excess of inflationary cost increases must be concentrated in the next three years, followed by moderate increases thereafter. Suitable increases have been agreed for 1979, 1980 and 1981 which will raise tariffs in real terms to about 90 percent of the 1967 level. These increases, in combination with traffic growth, would improve Regifercam's debt service coverage ratio from 0.9 in FY1978 to 1.4 in FY1981, and the working ratio from 84 percent to 66 percent, permitting the railway to finance from its internal cash flow additional working capital requirements and an increasing share of capital investment, in addition to its debt service. The rate of return on unrevalued net fixed assets in use would increase from its presently negative value to 5.7 percent in FY 1981. Under the impact of stronger road competition, assumed to lead to a reduction of railway traffic in FY1984 and slow increases thereafter, Regifercam's financial performance would be less good but still satisfactory. 53. Past experience in West Africa suggests that a cautious approach to expectations for future traffic, as reflected in the economic sensitivity analysis, is justified. In addition, the impact of highway development on the railway's finances is particularly difficult to predict, as it will affect both traffic volumes and the ability of the railway to increase tariffs and still remain competitive, particularly for high value goods. Accordingly the implications of the financial sensitivity analysis have been taken into account in formulating the financial targets and covenants. The financial sensitivity analysis predicts debt service coverage ratios of 1.2 to 1.4 in FYs 1981 through 1983, dropping to 0.9 for the first year after completion of  - 21 - the proposed Yaounde-Douala road and recovering again to 1.3 in FY87. The railway would thus incur sizeable cash deficits for several years, to be covered by Government subsidies totalling about CFAF 5 billion over three years, which would decrease from year to year and end in FY1987. Forecast working ratios are below 70 percent until completion of the proposed Douala- Yaounde road, and about 72 percent thereafter. Regifercam agreed at nego- tiations to take all measures necessary to ensure that its working ratio will not exceed 75 percent in FY1980, 72 percent in FY1981, 70 percent for FY82 and until completion of the planned Douala-Yaounde road, and 75 percent thereafter (Section 5.11 of the draft Loan Agreement). Risks 54. There is a serious risk that the Government will have to subsidize the railway for several years after completion of the planned Douala-Yaounde road, and accordingly the Government will be asked to agree to provide finan- cial support to Regifercam as may be appropriate to protect the railway's liquidity should the need arise (Section 2.02 of the draft Guarantee Agree- ment). However, it is also true that the project provides a vital complement to other investments already underway. This is demonstrated not only by the satisfactory economic rate of return but by the fact that the subsidies that could be needed for Regifercam would be significantly higher without the project than with it i.e. under the most pessimistic assumptions, in FY1985 the railway will be CFAF 1.7 billion (US$8 million), the equivalent of about 25 percent of net operating revenues, better off with the project than with- out it. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 55. The draft Loan Agreement between Regifercam and the Bank, the draft Guarantee and Development Credit Agreements between the United Republic of (dllneroon and the Bank and the Association, the Report of the Committee pro- vided in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 56. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex IIl. 57. A condition of effectiveness is the conclusion of a subsidiary loan agreement, which establishes the on-lending terms for the IDA credit, between the Government and Regifercam (para. 44). 58. A condition of disbursement of funds for the Yaounde locomotive rnlling shed and rolling stock maintenance facilities is that Regifercam shall fw furnished to the Bank design and engineering plans for the facilities  - 22 - to be constructed and a proposed maintenance policy for motive power and rolling stock, which are satisfactory to the Bank (para. 48). 59. I am satisfied that the proposed loan and development credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 60. I recommend the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan and development credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments June 6, 1979  - 23 - ANNEX I - 3 - ~~~~~Page 1 of 6 TAIL! 3A CAKMOON - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES CAMEROON 1a LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 475.4 SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 156.4 NDST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 Lb 1970 lb ESTIMATE Lb REGION 1c GROUP 14 GROUP Le GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 110.0 200.0 340.0 223.6 432.3 867.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 55.0 91.0 104.0 86.7 251.7 578.3 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 5.5 6.8 7.8 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 14.9 /f 20.5 28.5 13.6 24.2 46.2 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EM. 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.4 42.7 50.8 PER SQ. 10M. AGRICULTURAL LAND 36.0 44.0 50.0 53.6 95.0 93.3 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.0 43.0 42.7 44.4 44.9 42.9 15-64 YRS. 56.0 54.0 53.8 52.7 52.8 53.5 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.5 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 URBAN *- 6.1 7.6 5.8 8.8 4.7 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 43.5 42.1 40.4 46.9 42.2 37.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 28.0 23.9 22.0 20.6 12.4 10.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.3 14 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.5 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 2.5 14.2 20.0 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1970-100) 70.4 100.0 98.2 94.2 104.3 107.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 96.0 96.0 102.0 90.1 99.5 105.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 59.0 59.0 59.3 55.2 56.8 63.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 23.0 /h 16.5 17.1 17.5 21.7 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE .. .. .. .. 7.5 8.0 HEALTN LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 35.9 41.0 41.0 43.7 53.3 57.2 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. .. 142.0 Li 138.4 82.5 53.9 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 32.0 *- 22.4 31.1 56.8 URBAN .. 77.0 .. 66.3 68.5 79.0 RURAL .. 21.0 .. 10.4 18.2 31.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 23.9 37.5 30.9 URBAN .. .. .. 70.3 69.5 45.4 RURAL .. .. .. 14.2 25.4 16.1 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 40460.0 /f 25960.0 26220.0 /j 21757.5 9359.2 2706.8 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 10898.0 If 2470.0 2270.0 / 3473.8 2762.5 1462.0 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 530.0 /f 310.0 .. 645.4 786.5 493.9 URBAN .. .. .. 172.9 278.4 229.6 RURAL .. .. .. 1292.6 1358.4 2947.9 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. 19.2 19.2 22.1 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. 5.2 4.9 .. 5.2 URBAN .. .. 5.1 5.0 .. 5.0 RURAL .. .. 5.2 4.7 .. 5.4 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. .. .. 2.0 URBAN .. .. .. .. 2.3 1.5 RURAL .. .. .. .. .. 2.7 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 28.3 64.1 URBAN .. .. .. .. .. 67.8 RURAL .. .. .. .. 10.3 34.1  - 24 - ANNEX I Page 2 of 6 TABLE 3A CAMEROON - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES CAMEROON - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) " SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP Id GROUP /e EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 65.0 107.0 111.0 52.1 75.8 99.8 FEMALE 43.0 91.0 97.0 37.6 67.9 93.3 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 9.0 12.0 8.0 17.7 33.8 FEMALE 1.0 5.0 8.0 5.0 12.9 29.8 VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 23.0 23.0 23.0 7.2 7.4 12.8 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY .. 48.0 51.0 43.2 34.3 34.9 SECONDARY .. 24.0 23.0 22.8 23.5 22.2 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) .. 12.0 6.0 fL 20.3 63.7 71.8 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 6.0 .. 3.9 7.2 12.4 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 36.0 96.0 40.1 71.1 104.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 2.2 14.1 28.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 2.0 /h 3.0 3.0 3.9 16.3 45.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATrENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.1 .. 1.0 1.2 1.6 4.6 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 2800.0 3300.0 3600.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 42.6 42.4 41.9 32.6 28.0 25.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 88.0 82.0 79.4 73.3 54.1 46.2 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 4.6 6.0 6.7 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 51.0 49.4 48.0 42.0 37.8 33.8 MALE 59.6 57.9 56.6 54.8 50.3 48.1 FEMALE 42.8 41.2 39.6 27.3 20.9 17.3 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 25.7 19.5 23.6 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 55.1 48.9 52.3 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 5.8 5.9 4.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 14.5 15.7 13.1 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 108.8 155.9 191.9 RURAL .. .. 70.0 74.1 97.9 193.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 112.0 124.4 143.7 319.8 RURAL .. .. 85.0 59.6 87.3 197.7 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 15.0 26.8 22.9 19.8 RURAL .. .. 40.0 47.6 36.7 35.1 Not available Not applicable. NOTES Ia The adjusted group averages for each indicator are p3pulation-weighted geometric mans, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1973 and 1977. /c Africa South of Sahara; /d Lower Middle Income ($281-550 per capita, 1976); /e Intermediate Middle Income ($551-1135 per capita, 1976); /f 1962, including ex-South Cameroons under British Administra- tion; /g West Cameroon only; /h 1964-1966; /I 1972; /i 1971. September, 1978  ANNEX I -25 - Page 3 of 6 page: REY TO COLNTRIES BY REGION AND INCOME CROUP/e l ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Lotaiol urptoe RegLot T-c.ac C-oup |ou innneeb Lo t_ d Iniet-diatc l Middle Upper Middle High lo /f Cortr Scale Molacri Angl. Chana Djibou-i Caobn -ururdi Mali votavane Sory Cout Raunon Central African Emp. Mubique C roon Mauriria. Chad Niser Cape VeIde rNibi. C-r-o R"Ind. Congo, P.R. Saythell.e Ethiopit Sierra Leo-e Eqoetori I Guine. AFRTC SOUtA CGnhbi, The Sralia Ltb.ria OF SRARA uinea T-p.ania i a ritaia Cuioea-aiaeac gone Noigeria Kenvca ieg-de Rhedecie Lescoho Ctppar Volta See Tame &s F iecipm 'tadgaetar Zaire Sen gal . S kA z i I *eI Suda Sn. il.nd Z-mbia Eop M-..cc Algeria Bahra in re NORTh RID CA Yemen Ri. oLrda- Ir.n Sean Lib-a _4L, MITDLF Y_ne P.D.R. Syria h.. Iraq Qatar C AlT Voniat L.ba.on Saudidarabia tPLnited Arhb eir lighanieten Nalidvee 5angladelh Nepal SOLTH AIA 33htan a-ikian S3ene Sri Lanka Indi Cambodia Ne Hbrid. China, ap. of Fili ._r-icn Samoa 'I'deia Ppoa He. Goinea Gilbern telan.da ifong long Soone CdT 5110 tdoo- i-.. Pihlippieee Korea, Re. of frennb palvneeie solamot Slaede Th.iland Ca"I' lulA JLen N ' Tonga f-aiavia Sew Caledonia _ _ aWctern Sueoa Truat Territery of the Psoifi Singapore Haiti Bolivia Aecigue Guatemla Argentine B.h-r El Salv dor B lioc JlDeina Rarb doc S:aouda Grenada Chile Meaito Draeil Canal lane :15 OCERICA CGuyana Colambi. Nicaragua Fre-oh Guiana Mrtini. u l CARIBFAVN re Coa lia Paaguc Guadalupe Pene.en St. Vireot DlPainica Peru feth.rlenda etnille Virgin tlanda (UIS.) Didnicin Rep. St. Kitta-Nenie Panam Eouader St. Lonia Puerto floe Surinam Trinidad &Tobago Uru ... T-rbey Cvpruc Ch nna I;l-nd CUOCG M Mlt GIralt ; t RCFE ~~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Perorga ICi Greenet Ron ia Ireanland VufeCSCOia Spain __~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. -. Ipi Australia PFiulad Italy Nreay 'United Strate 'YUCSTRI;LIZED AS-tria Freene Jpan South Africa corwTRIES Balgie GnCreny Fd. Rep. of Lnae.baorg Sweden Can.d. Iceland Ntherland- Sminetrl-ad Dennmark Ireland Raw Zealand Z onZid Kingd:- Albei. Caren Ion, Rop. WTOSR BSl-tic Hufngary CEV7RALLY PLANVED Chin- P.R. of Kere DlA. Rep. of 'CONLOlES Cuba Monfali. Cseaubee lepkia Poland a 2aCed on I976 lXF par cApita in 1976 LS dolars. 3 S280 or Ia per capita. S s281-5so par capita. d 551-1135 aPr capita. S1136-2500 per capit. PDF I over 52500 per capit..  AiNNEX I -26- ?age 4of 6pages DEFINITIIONSOF9 qOCI%I TINDICATORS :ote' ilacugct- data ore drawn frma sources generally judged the moat authoritative and reflectt. iL sho.ld also a. noted chat they may not be -ont- o aospraieb--us of zhe lack of -tadardized definitio- and concpta -sed bv different curisi. collecting the dai 'h. data ore. on-etheiesa. 13-a toJsrie orders of magnitude Indictate trends, and characterize certain ma jor differ.ancs between cutrie.s "h. oliaccted .roi swer.... for each indicater are popatation-weighted geometric means., excluding the extreme values of the indicator end the 'most -ap.iated - 'acr in each group. Coverage of countries oag the i'sdicatcra depends on awulsbilir o f data and as rot uniorm D-s to lack of data. - r., ove~oos ~catual B-piu O. il op ortere and ind tinsra of ...... to o.cte and e..reca disposal, aouaing. mnc ee dzatnibotion and poverty are -a.v ponlectn-viohted gemuatric nears wath..sth Ike .Icazalo of extreme vatlses. ..AI.) 'lilA tro-uaro aq. bin) Population per hoepital bed - total. urban, and ru ral - Population (total. -ota. - Total s-rface area comprising land arsa and inland waters. urban, and ruret divided by their respective number of hospital beds A,Icltlt-tl - Most rece-ntestimate of agricultural area used temporarily available in public and priva te general and specialized hzspital and re- at ae-tanently for crops, pastu-as, market and kitchen gardens or to nabilitatioa centers. Hosapitals are establishments permanently staffed by leallow, at leset one phyaician. Establisheen to providing principally cuatodial -:re are net included. Rural bospitals. however. itclade health and 0en1- SIP ?:i -.,PITA Lii) - GNP? pen caicta estimates at current market prices, cal centers noc permanently staffed by a physician (but by a medical ae- _.alcua-d bv sana -ncvarslcn etnocd ua World Bank Atlas (1975-77 beasI); siatant, inure.. midwife. etc.) which offer in-patient accomedation and 146, 70, and 1977 data. provide a limited range of medical facilities. Admissions per hospital bed - Total number of admissions to or discharges ENERGY C3NStMPIP'ION PER CAPITA - %nca.l cosumption of conmarcial enesgy from hoepitale divided by the number of beds. 'coal ind lignite, Petroleum, natural gasaend hydro-, nuclear anxd ges- .oersail electriclty) in kilograms of coal equivalent per capita. gOOSINlG Avragte sine of household (persons per household) - total, urban. and rural- POPI'ATtON ANT) vITAL STATISTICS A household c.. aite of a group of inuividuals who share living quar.ters Total population. mid-year (millions) - As of July 1; if sot available. end their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or may not be included in a-erage of Iwo edyear estimates; 1960. 1970, and 1977d dta, the housebold for statistical purposes. Statistical definitions of house- C7ro ;ouainlaceot of toal) R atia of urban to total popula- bold vary. ticon; different definitions of urban areas may affect comparability Average number of parsons per room - total, urban, and rural - Average mum- r .at mamong countries. hbr of persons per room in all, urban . ad rural occupied covetional Po..la.t-o ce...ity dwellings, respectively. Dwellings exclude non-permanent structures and 7cr sq. kon. - Mid-year population per square kilometer (iii hectaze.) unoccupied parts. o:f total area. ALccese to electricity (percent of dwellings) - total. urban. end rural - er s.a.agriculture land - Computed as above for agricultural land Conventional dwellings with electricity in living quarters as percentage 05.7 of total, urban, sod rural dwellings respectivelv. Pa...lation ao. structure tpercent) - Children (i-lb years), working-age (15-64 "ears), and retired' (65 years and over) as percentages of sid- EDUCATIONO ,ear yopulation. Adjusted enrollment ratio. Fopulation grnwth nate (percent) - total. and urban - Compound annual Frimary schooll - total, and female - Total and female enrollment of all ages growth rates oft ttal and arban mid-year populations for 1950-60, an the primary level a. percescages of repectively primary sohool-ege 196-7 , and 19 0-75. populations; normally includes children aged 6-il yearn but adjusrad for -'.ad birth rate (Par thousand) - Annual lice births per thousand of different lengths of primary education; focr countries with universal adu- old-year population; ten-year arithmetic averagee ending in 1960 end cation enroll1ent may exceed 110 percent since aome pupils are below or 19?1 acd fiv,e-year average ending in 1975 for moat recent eatimate. above the official school age. Thudn couh rune (pee thousan.d) - Annual deanhs par thousand of mid- S ....d.ry school - natal, and female - Computed as above; sacoadary educ- year population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending in 1960 and 1970 tion requiree at least four years of approved primary instruction; Pr- and fioe-year average ending in 1975 for moat recent estimate. vides general vcostioral, or teacher training instructious for pupils ;rous .. recodu.tion rats - Average number of daughters a unman will bear usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondence courses are generally un oc- normal reproductive period if she experiences pr.esnt age- excluded. 5pccific feetility rates; usually five-pear avarages ending in 1960. Vocational anrollo...t bPercent of secondary) - vocational imeiuioxi- 19701..ad 1975. clude technical, industrial, or other programs which operate independently Pumio pl-uning - acceptors, annual (thousands) - Annual cumbat of or as departments of secondary institutions. aceptors of birth-control devices under auspices of national family Pupil-teachar ratio - primary, and secondary - Total students enrolled in planning program,. primary and secondary lavals divided by numbers of teachere in the torre- Osmuly planning-users (prcrent of maniad woman) - Percetage of spondiog I 'sl. married woman of child-beating age (15-44 years) who use birth-control Adult literary rare (percent) - Literate adults (able to read and write) as devices to all married women in same age group. a percentage of total adult population aged 15 years and over. FOO0 AINDI'fURITION CONS1IITI0N indon of food _r-od.otio. ner capita (1970-100) - Index aumber of pen Passenger cars (par thousan.d p.Pulati-c) - Pasa..neer cars compoise mocor cr capita annual production of all food comoodities. seating less than eight persons; excludes ambulances, hearses and military for capita supply of calories (percent of requirements) - Computed from vehicles. ene rgy equivalent of net food suppliea available in country per capcta Radio receivers (per thousand population) - All types of receivers for radio -o day. Available supplies co-prise domeatic production. importeleses broadcasts to gemaral public pee thousand of population; excludes umilnensed coporte, and changes in, stock, get suppli.s exclude animal feed, seeds, receivers in onre and in years when regiLstraion of radio seta was in -canities used in Soud processing, and losses in distribution. Re- effect; data for recent years may not be comparable aince mset countries qcirements were estimated by PAO based on physiological needs for nor- abolished licenaing. al activity and health considering environmuntal temperature, body TSP receivers (par thousand population) - TI' receivers for broadcast to generaL -eignzs, age and sex distributions of population, and allowing 10 per- public par thousand population; excludes unlicenaed TV receivers in coun- tent for wate au house.hold levl.. tries and in years when c-gistcraol of TV sets was In affect. ?er capita supply ad protein (grams per day) - Protein content of per Newspaper circulatio (,per thousand population) - Shows the average irools- 050110a net supply of food per day. 71st nupply of food is defined as tion of "dil enrl iterest newspaper", defined as a periodical publi- uhove. Requirements for all countries establiahed by USDA provide for cation devoted primarily to recording general news, It is considered to .cra.-.otance of 50 grons cf total pcretin per day and 20 grams ha. "daily" If it appears at least four times a week. tau n.c pulse proteica, of cobbh ii gream should he aolual proteis. Cinsu sonual attendanue onr capita pan asar - ...d on the nuoher of tiok.ta oc~ t oanarda are lower than those of 75 grams of total protein and sold during the year, including admIssions to drive-in cinemas and mobile era... .c an imal prt.cin as an average for the world, proposed by units. ~AO in -'e -h-rd World Food lurvey. Per capita 'rotein supply from animal and pulse - Protein supply of food EBPLOYNENT ..-votc I.tul and pulses in gram. Per day. Tocal lbabr_fos-c (tho-sands) -tnoial active persons. iocluding armed Clii .000 14) crtlity rate (per thousand) -dna eteprIos forces and unemplyoyd but ...nluding housewives, students, etc. Defini- ocd in ago group 1-4 years, to children in this age group. tiona in various countries are non comparable. Female (percent) - Pemale labor force as percentage of total labor force. oEALl 7) Asric.lture, (percent) - Labor force in farming, forestry, hnunting and fishing lIfe -op-ct-y at bcrto (years) - Average number of years of life as percetage sf tocal labor force. remaii,ing at birtk; usually five-year averages ending in 1960, 1970, Industry (percent) - Labor force in mining, construction. manufacturing and and 1977. electricity, water and gas as percentage of total labor force. --ttc .ortality rate (per th-ouaad) - Annual deaths cf inants under Participation rate (percent) - total, male, and female - Total, male, and ace year of age per thousand live oirhts. femials, labor forte as percent.ags ad their respective populations. k-coo cc smet watner (par ...t of population) - total, urban. and ru-a - Th... are 11,0' udjoated participation racs eficigs-z 4anner ci people atotal.,urban, and rural) with reasonable access to strocture of the population. and tang tine trend. uOz. acatr supply (includes treated surface waters or untreated boc tononmic dependenc, ratio - Ratio of population under 15 a.. 61 and vove to anoa-tamicated water such as that from procacted boreholee, springs, the labor force in age group of 15-6- veers. and ;acitary walls) as percen.tages of thsir respective 5opulations. aarbaners public foun tain on tcadpost loca.ted not sane INCOME DISTRIBUTIONI -cI. O7 meters fron a house may ha considered as being within r.a- Percentags of orivate income (both in cas h and kind) received by richestI accakble -caess of that ,ouae. In rural areas reaaonable access would percent. richest 20 percent. poorest 20 percent, and poorest nO pe-cent t.si- taut the houewife or mebers of the ho.sehold do not haws to ofhouseholds. -d a d!sprop-ytioats pert af nha day in fetching the family's -ceo,. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~POVERTY 'TARGET IttitPi 'a~ oc-reta diansa- (percent of copulation) - tonael. urban, and Estimated absolute poverty income level (US$ per capita) - arban and total- a - foat of ysopio 'total, -b.ra. and rural) served by eacreta absolots povorry i-on L-1e is than ...... le vel below hcice a it.m -ca: s yerccntagos of their respective populations. Excreta nutrItional ly adequate dtet plus assontia, non-food requirements is oct ou cY In-c,e the collection and disposal, with or without affordable. 'tt f i --o 2'tt and wc-acrby atzr-born.sascsus Estimated relative poverty Income level iUSB par capita - a-tan cd rural1 ,uo at711 oran - simiolar intlain.Relative poverty income Level is that inom lvel less than -ne-third orcaaac-Population divided by number of practicing par -apita personal inoose of the rountry. * '. aui!acc from a -edl.-1 school at university level. istimated Population helow poverty income leve (per ...t' - urban and rar1 ~ccrscca - Pcoulatlon divided oy number of Percent of population (urban and rural) who are sither "abalonte poor" or a scccr-nele graduatecrs. practical oucoe... an d "relative poor" whichever is greater. t,oonomic ad Scoizi D.a iao cnoic Analysis and Projections Departzent  - 27- PM~~-N, nATA Page 5 of 6 ppges Actual Pro3ected 1.966.. 1971 - 1976- 1978 - ~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~ 1~~~~~~2m 192n 1978 19 1983D ?7. 771 76 -1.81 19 33 1967 1978 196! 3-Yer Avera at1974/ 1075 Prices &Exchange Rates Yea-~ l E,- Ra-es As Percent cf lOy 'roscoestic Product ,506.9 2025 ,2.2 ,4.1 3,'.0 ' * 6.4 .8 101.3 95.9 1.6 Ostos from Terms of Trade Ln ,. v7S1a00C 43-13 ~ -. Gros4 inmestic Icome T.5tt5 2Tl7 7 ~ ~~ : : T -M-7 Import (mncl. NPS) 498.5 611.3 663.9 910.3 981.6 1,063.8 6.7 1.3 5.2 2.1 33.5 31.3 32.1 pEt-orts " (import capacity) 4L 15a. 5. 657(. 5 611.2 853.5 92,0.4 7.4 2.2 3.1 1.3 30.2 30.6 28.3 Resource Gap 9 7 - 0-. 6- Z --.j Consumption Expenditures 1,253.9 1,729.6 1,809.6 2,166.1 2,45o.3 2,724.8 8.7 1.7 4.9 4.5 81o.3 81.8 62.9 investment " (Socl. stocks) i34.3 376.2 108.1 582.7 661.7 696.1 .9 2.0 10.? 2.8 12.4 21.9 21.2 Domestic Saving 233.3 285.3 401.6 483.3 553.7 562.7 6.3 5.7 11.1 2.1 1'5.7 16.2 17.1 National Savings 177.7 242.0 337.5 417.7 473.2 4.69.4 7.2 5.1 11.1 1.2 12.0 15.8 14.3 MERCHML.T,SF TPALE AnnuaLl Data at Current Prices As Percent Of Total - imports capital goods 40.8 89.1 144.8 36. 336.6 464.1 16.9 20.2 12.8 e.6 21.7 38.6 34.1 Intermne-iiste zoods ~m1fuels) 87.3 133.6 257.2 313.1 5,10.1 613.9 8.9 12.8 11.8 13.1 4,6.4 37.1 47.7 F.els and related materials 8.3 15.2 52.8 81.3 - 12.9 28.7 4 .14 8.8 of which: Petroleum 8.3 15.2 5,2.8 81.3 - - 1.2.9 28.7 . .14 8.8 Cons-.octlor goos 651.6 64.9 Ill 142. 190.7 2L1.1 12I. L 8.5 11.8 10.9 2'14 !--.I Total Mccxli. Inprts(cr) 6 -7 6T-T2o. -767651,34. 100 1.3 13.0 10.0 100.0 130.0 I003 E .x e prsortS-77 1,Z-5--, 7 100 1 Epolvrts prouct el. ,..Is) 1243.6 199.9 158.0 787.8 882.5 1,105.7 6.8 16.7 1.2.0 10.1 90.8 96.8 94.15 Fueis a.rd related m,aterials - - 7.9 7.6 . . .6 at' which: Petroleum - - 1.3 7.6 . . . Manuf3ctured