Niger - Dosso Agricultural Development Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE CO21' Report No. 2493-NIR NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT November 21, 1979 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: CFA franc (CFAF) US$ 1.00: CFAF 220 CFAF 1,000: US$ 4.55 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 kilogram (kg): 2.20 pounds 1 metric ton: 0.98 long tons 1 hectare (ha): 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km): 0.62 miles ABBREVIATIONS APMU Bank Agricultural Projects Management Recruitment Unit CAFS Project Commercial Administrative and Financial Section CCCE Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (Bank for Economic Cooperation - French) CFDT Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles (Cotton Development Company - French) CNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (National Agricultural Credit Bank) FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (Fund for Assistance and Cooperation - French) FED Fonds Europeen de Development (European Development Fund) ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics IFDC International Fertilizer Development Center INRAN Institut National de Recherche Agronomique Nigerienne (National Agricultural Research Institute) MES Project Monitoring and Evaluation Section PPF (A) Bank Project Preparation Facility (Advance) RMWA Bank Regional Mission for West Africa (Abidjan) SONARA Societe Nigerienne d'Arachide (National Groundnut Company) TV Training and Visit system of extension UNCC Union Nigerienne de Credit et de Cooperation VEW Village Extension Worker FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Table of Contents Page No. I. BACKGROUND ................................................... 1 A. Project Background ................................ 1 B. The Rural Sector ........... 0.............................. 1 C. Sectrr Strategy and Is-ues ....... ....................... 3 II. THE PROJECT AREA ............... ............ .............. 6 A. Physical Features ................ . ...... ....... 6 B. Socio-Economic Features ................................... 7 C. Institutions and Infrast.ucture ........ .... 8 D. Land Use and Farm Income ................................. 10 III. THE PK, ,CT .................................................. 15 A. Objectives and Summary Description ....................... 15 B. Detailed Iratures ................. . ..... .......... 0 16 C. Cost Estimates ........... ........... 22 D. Proposed Financing .............. .. ...................... 23 E. Procuremen qnd Disbursement ............................ 25 F. Accounts a Audit ................. .... 26 IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ........................... 26 A. Project Management .......................... ..... 26 B. Staffing . . . ......... . ....... ..... o....o...... 28 C. Monitoring and Evaluation ..................o.o. ...... 30 V. TECHNOLOGICAL AND PRODUCTION SPECIFICATIONS o........ 30 A. Rainfed Farming .................... ............. 30 B. Livestock Development ...................... . .... 33 C. Bottomland Development ................................. 34 D. Production ...................... ........................ 34 This report is based on the findings of a Bank mission which visited Niger in November/December 1978 comprising of Messrs. J. Weijenberg, P. Blanc, C. Megas, and D. Steeds (Bank) and Messrs. A. Bialer and T. Painter (Con- sultants). I hi,, do, -nt has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of' their ohicial duties, Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Table of Contents (Cont'd) Page No. VI. DEMAND, MARKETING AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS........... 34 A. Demand .................................................... 34 B. Marketing . ................................................ 36 C. Prices ...................................................... 36 D. Financial Implications for Farmers ........................ 37 E. Financial Implications for Government .................... 37 VII. BENEFITS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ................... ............ 39 A. Project Benefits ......................................... 39 B. Economic Analysis ........................................ 40 VIII. AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION .................. 42 ANNEXES 1. Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel ............. 44 2. Supporting Tables and Charts .................................... 52 3. Selected Documents and Data in the Project File .................. 68 LIST OF TABLES IN THE MAIN TEXT 2.1 Land Use, Farm Size, Output and Income in 1977 .................. 11 3.1 Main Project Inputs .............................................. 17 3.2 Summary Project Costs .......................................... 23 4.1 Project Staffing ................................................ 29 5.1 Key Technical Coefficients ..................................... 31 5.2 Production Volume and Value ........................... ......35 6.1 Farm Incomes ................................................... 38 7.1 Economic Costs, Benefits and Rates of Return ................... 41 LIST OF SUPPORTING TABLES AND CHARTS (ANNEX 2) Table 1 Physical Inputs and Yields ........................... ..... 53 Table 2 Returns per Hectare and Labor Use .......................... 54 Table 3 Returns per Farm and per Labor-Day at Full Development .... 55 Table 4 Unimproved and Improved Areas of Rainfed Crops ............ 56 Table 5 Improved Areas of Rainfed Crops with Manual and Animal Traction Cultivation ............................. ....... 57 Table 6 Inputs for Rainfed Crops .................................... 58 Table 7 Outputs of Rainfed Crops ................................... 59 Table 8 Farmers' Returns over Time: North .......................... 60 Table 9 Farmers' Returns over Time: Center.......................... 61 Table 10 Farmers' Returns over Time: South .......................... 62 Table 11 Project Costs by Year, By Component and by Type of Expenditure ........................................... 63 Table 12 Project Financing by Type of Expenditure .................. 64 Table 13 Project Financing by Year ................................... 65 Table 14 IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule .................. 66 Table 15 Government Cash Flow ........................................ 67 Table of Contents (Cont'd) Page No. CHARTS 20154 Implementation Schedule ................................ 69 20156 Organization and Management ........................... 70 MAPS 14214 Rainfall and Population Density 14215 Location of Project Activities  NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT I. BACKGROUND A. Project Background 1.01 In March 1977, Government informed an RMWA mission of its interest in obtaining Bank Group assistance to expand an ongoing FAC-financed agricul- tural development project in Dosso Province. RMWA participated in drawing up terms of reference for a feasibility study, for which FAC financed a consul- tant team that completed work in April 1978; the study proposed a broad rural development project costing about US$50 million. Meantime, a Belgian aid mission which had visited Dosso in mid-1977 proposed a much smaller project, concentrating on wells, bottomland development, and feeder road studies. To reconcile the differences between the two project proposals, Government decided in May 1978 that a supplementary feasibility study be undertaken by two consultants, for which the Bank Group agreed to provide PPF financing of US$30,000. This report was completed by end-October and an appraisal mission visited Niger in November-December 1978. The project now proposed for con- sideration by IDA focusses on smallholder farmers; while the main activities would be in rainfed farming, bottomland developments and livestock activities would also be included. The project would not include village water supplies, which would be financed under a separate Belgian project, nor feeder roads, which would be financed under the IDA feeder road project approved in March 1979 covering four Provinces, including Dosso. B. The Rural Sector 1.02 Human Geography. Niger has a population of about 5 million of whom over 4 million live in rural areas. The country covers 1.3 million km2, of which 75% is desertic, 15% semi-arid, and less than 10% suitable for crop production and even this is of limited potential. About half the people live between the southern border with Nigeria, where annual rainfall is 700-800 mm, and the 500 mm isoh et. In this area of about 100,000 km2, population density averages only 20/km but exceeds 100/km2 in the more favorable locations in valleys; the main crops are millet and sorghum, groundnuts, cowpeas and some cotton. Further north, as rainfall declines and becomes more variable, rainfed cropping becomes increasingly precarious and livestock activities increasingly important. 1.03 Share in GDP and Exports. Since 1970, the rural sector's share of GDP has dropped from 60% to 45%, and its share of exports from 80% to 30%. This dramatic change reflects the rapid rise in uranium production but also - 2 - slow development of the rural sector. Recent crop production has been dis- appointing, particularly groundnut production which has declined - due to previously prevailing low producer prices, disease, drought and subsequent seed stock problems - from 250,000 tons (shelled) to about 100,000 tons. Although farmers have switched into grains and cowpeas, crops now account for less than 30% of GDP and 10% of exports. Livestock production was disrupted by the 1973 drought which, according to Government estimates, reduced the national herd from 4.2 million cattle to 2.2 million, and from 9 million smallstock to 7 million. Although herd reconstitution has begun, pre-drought cattle numbers will not be reached for another decade. Increases in prices of livestock products have, however, largely offset the reduced volume of pro- duction; livestock now accounts for 15% of GDP and 20% of exports. 1.04 Food Balance. Before 1973, Niger was self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs in normal years. Over the three drought years 1973-75 however, cereal imports averaged about 120,000 tons/year, equivalent to only about 10% of normal annual production but a much higher proportion, perhaps 50%, of marketed production. This disquieting experience drew attention to cereal production - a hitherto neglected subsector - and this attention has not waned despite good harvests in 1976/77 and 1978/79. Although some recent projections have suggested that there would likely be an important millet and sorghum deficit in the years to come, present indications are that, provided rainfed farming productivity projects are implemented as envisaged, Niger will continue to be about self-sufficient in cereals but that production will be vulnerable to the vagaries of climate. In good years surpluses will be marketable in northern Nigeria - unless there is a good year throughout the area; poor-year deficits will be met by imports, but the probability of a drought as severe as that of 1973 is low (0.02). 1.05 Institutions. The Ministry of Rural Development, which has main but not sole responsibility for the rural sector, is divided into four Depart- ments: Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Engineering and Forestry; there is also a small, recently-established planning unit attached to the Minister's Cabinet. The Union Nigerienne de Credit et de Cooperation (UNCC), established in 1962, is responsible for cooperative development, input supply, seasonal and medium-term credit recovery, and primary marketing, as well as the manage- ment of some agricultural projects. The Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (CNCA), established as an offshoot from UNCC in 1967, is responsible for provision of funds for agricultural credit, review of loan applications, and bookkeeping for consolidated cooperatives' accounts. Para-public companies have been set up to compete with the private sector in secondary marketing, processing and subsequent retail distribution of the main crops. The Societe Nigerienne d'Arachide (SONARA) handles both groundnuts and cowpeas, volumes of which have fluctuated widely as a result of weather but also erratic pricing; the cowpea volume bought by SONARA declined from 50,000 tons in 1976/77 to 4,100 tons in 1977/78; the groundnut volume, which was regularly over 150,000 tons (shelled) in the late 1960s and early 1970s, has not exceeded 15,000 tons in the three years through 1977/78. The Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger - 3 - (OPVN) handles millet and sorghum, between 10,000 and 60,000 tons/year pur- chased locally, and processed rice, about 3,000 tons/year. OPVN has also been responsible for internal distribution of food aid. 1.06 Input Pricing. Government pursues a policy of heavy subsidies on agricultural inputs. Although input prices are not announced sufficiently in advance to enable farmers to place orders on the basis of known prices, prices have not been changed for several years. Accordingly, the subsidy element has been increasing and, in 1978/79, reached 60% on fertilizer, about 70% on small animal-drawn implements, and about 40% on carts. Whereas unit prices for inputs are decided by the Minister of Rural Development, on the basis of proposals submitted by UNCC, the aggregate subsidy amount is fixed by the Ministry of Planning as part of the annual capital budget. Since the aggregate amount is insufficient to finance acquisition of volumes demanded at the subsidized unit prices, inputs are necessarily rationed. Moreover, since tenders for supply of inputs are not issued until the capital budget allocation is known, in practice a good part of the inputs is delivered too late. Data on input use - less than 4,000 tons of fertilizer nationwide for rainfed farming - do not therefore reflect demand but rather rationed, untimely supply. 1.07 Output Pricing. Prices payable by the para-public marketing agencies for millet, sorghum, groundnuts, cowpeas, cotton and paddy are fixed by a National Price Committee chaired by the Minister of Economic Affairs. As in most West African countries, prices are announced in October, just before the opening of the primary markets, and are therefore relevant only to the follow- ing season's planting decisions. In the last few years, however, uncertainties have been exacerbated by (a) the reduction in the producer price for cowpeas in the 1975/76 season after the markets had opened and (b) the increase in the producer price for all crops in the 1977/78 season after the markets had been operating for three months. Prices announced for the 1978/79 season all show a significant increase over the previous year's initial prices and are, in fact, close to economic prices; the producer price payable at primary markets as a percentage of the economic price is 80% for millet and sorghum, 90% for cowpeas and cotton, 100% for paddy, and 110% for groundnuts. The recent price increases reflect a recognition of the necessity to compete with the market in Nigeria, where prices are not effectively controlled, and with the marketing skills of Nigerien and Nigerian merchants. C. Sector Strategy and Issues 1.08 Constraints and Challenges. Apart from uranium, the country's natural resource endowment is unusually poor. The climate imposes a severe limit on the area where cultivation is possible, and even in that area, uncertain rainfall makes farming a hazardous occupation. Soils are generally poor and in many areas productivity is declining as fallow periods are being shortened, reflecting increased land pressure stemming from population growth of perhaps 3% per year. The decline in productivity may, in many areas, have reached a point where it is now worthwhile to intensify land use. Water, though abundant underground, is found in only a few valleys and large-scale irrigation is costly, in excess of US$10,000/ha. Distances, both internal and external, are enormous, putting Niger at a disadvantage with competitors in export markets (over US$100/ton to ocean port). Despite the expansion in uranium production and related activities, productive employment opportunities outside the rural sector cannot increase by more than a few thousand per year, yet the working age population increases by 40,000-50,000 each year. Unless income opportunities can be expanded in the rural sector, present dry-season migration to neighboring countries will increase and perhaps become permanent. 1.09 Objectives and Strategies. Government has responded to these constraints and challenges by selecting a two-fold objective: to exploit the potential in rainfed crop and livestock production, and to increase the area under controlled irrigation. The strategy in rainfed agriculture is to set up a regional "Productivity Project" in each province whereby improved services of extension, input supply, credit and marketing would be made available to smallholders. It is Government's intention that such projects should cover the whole of the cultivable part of the country by 1980. By 1979 such proj- ects, not always covering the whole of a province, were being implemented in five of the six relevant provinces including Maradi, financed under Credit 608-NIR (US$10.7 million), and the existing FAC-financed pilot project for Dosso Province. These projects differ in emphasis, in coverage of subsectors and also in administrative structure. Government's strategy in controlled irrigation is a modest rate of development, of about 1,200 ha per year, while building the institutions that could later manage a more rapid rate of imple- mentation of new perimeters. Full development of the countries considerable irrigation potential along the Niger River (100,000 ha) would also depend on the construction of the proposed Kandadji regulatory dam currently being studied. For livestock, Government's strategy is not sharply focussed since it includes both state-run enterprises and provision of services to pastoralists. For the latter, Government has recently modified its position which is now, in the semi-arid pastoral zone, a blend of its earlier approach - provision of vaccinations and stock watering points - and the newly- recognized need to increase animal and pastoral productivity by working through associations of pastoralists. In the cropping zone, Government's strategy is to encourage crop-livestock integration through promotion of animal traction and animal feeding. In the long term, the livestock industry is expected to become increasingly specialized by zone: breeding in the semi-arid pastoral zone, backgrounding in the intermediate cereals zone, and fattening in the southern mixed cropping zone. With the exceptions of state- run livestock enterprises and the unwillingness to exclude any cultivated area, however arid, from the "Productivity Projects", the strategies chosen by Government are sound. 1.10 Policy Issues. Significant improvements have recently been made in output pricing, whereby financial prices have been moved close to economic prices (para. 1.07), and in the cost of agricultural credit, for which the interest rate was increased from 6.5% in 1977/78 to 8% in 1978/79 and then to 9.5% for 1979/80. Since average annual inflation over 1976-78 was 20% and though it may be rather lower over the next three years, the real interest rate would probably continue to be negative. No improvements have been made - 5 - in input pricing, since financial prices for inputs have been held constant and have therefore moved further away from economic prices (para. 1.06); negative real interest rates and heavily-subsidised inputs reflect Govern- ment's desire to transfer income from uranium to the rural sector. Input supply continues, however, to be inadequate, irregular and untimely. Improve- ments have been made in access to credit through the growth of the cooperative movement, and the introduction in 1977 of a cash down payment, set at 10%, on agricultural implements, but there has been no significant improvement in the credit repayment rate of 60% on seasonal inputs and implements. The repayment rate does, however, vary considerably between provinces, depending on the soundness of the local technical services as well as the attitude of the local administrative authorities. 1.11 Previous Bank Involvement. Since 1969, six credits have been approved for the agricultural sector. The first, Credit 207-NIR for US$0.6 million, signed in 1970, was designed to provide smallholders with credit for seasonal inputs and implements, and to strengthen the cooperative movement. As the Completion Report 1/ concludes, "the project was an unfortunate under- taking" since (a) it concentrated on financial aspects of agricultural credit without providing for specific structured actions aimed at improving produc- tion technology at the field level; (b) the key agency, UNCC, provided no extension services to groundnut farmers; (c) the project period, 1971-74, coincided with severe droughts; and (d) until late 1974, Government adopted a unremunarative producer price policy. Instead of a 100% rate of return as estimated at appraisal the actual rate of return, not quantified in the Completion Report, was barely positive. The second Credit, made in 1974 for the Drought Relief Project, Credit 441-NIR for US$2 million, financed a variety of small subprojects which were generally executed satisfactorily. The third Credit 608-NIR for US$10.7 million, for the Maradi Agricultural Development Project was approved in December 1975 but did not become effective until October 1976. The project has satisfactorily completed two agricultural seasons and a follow-up p7ofect including a sizeable irrigation component, is under preparation. The fourth Credit, approved in May 1978 for the Forestry Project, Credit 800-NIR for US$4.5 million, will finance 400 ha of pilot irrigated tree plantations and 700 ha of rainfed plantations as well as some rural forestry activities. The fifth Credit, approved in September 1978 for the Namarigoungou Irrigation Project, Credit 851-NIR for US$15 million, will primarily finance a new 1,500 ha perimeter. The sixth Credit, for the Live- stock Project, Credit 885-NIR for US$12 million, was approved in March 1979. Located in the center and east of the country, it will finance an innovative approach to provision of a package of services to pastoralists in the semi- arid pastoral zone and a series of specific livestock-related actions in the cropping zone. 1.12 Sector Lending Strategy. Bank Group investments in the agricultural sector should support Government's generally sound strategy, namely regional productivity projects, gradual development of the country's irrigation poten- tial, provision of services to pastoralists, and crop-livestock integration. 1/ Niger: Agricultural Credit Project Completion Report, April 27, 1977. - 6 - It must also be recognized, however, that with present technical knowledge and the severity of the conEtraints on rural production, the scope 'or worthwhile investments in rainfed crop and livestock production is limited and could be exhausted in the next decade. Already, there are many areas that are regularly cultivated but in which no worthwhile investments can be made; the tracing of the demarcation line is not easy and Government is understandably concerned to be perceived as doing something for everyone. Bank Group investments will, nonetheless, have to trace such a line and, taking due account of the hetero- geneity of the countryside, stay within it. II. THE PROJECT AREA A. Physical Features 2.01 Location and Climate. The project area (see Map 14214) comprises Dosso Province which covers about 31,000 km2. Located in the southwest of the country between Benin and Nigeria, it includes five administrative districts: Birni, Dosso, Doutchi, Gaya and Loga. The climate varies from sahelian in the north, where average annual rainfall is 400 mm, concentrated in a 100-day period, to sudanian in the extreme south at Gaya with 850 mm/year over 130 days. Inter-annual variations are also large and further complicate farm decision-making. Radiation, temperature and sunlight hours peak in May and are at their lowest in August when dull overcast conditions are common. Potential evapotranspiration is highest in the north, averaging 7 mm/day in May and falling to 4 mm/day in August. In December and January the harmattan, an intensely drying wind from the Sahara, brings about a small but distinct drop in temperature; daily minima fall to 150C, thus facilitating vegetable production. 2.02 Topography and Soils. Underlain with tertiary sandstones, the area consists of a monotonous plateau of sandy soils, 200-240 m above sea level, broken by dry, ancient river valleys (dallols) of which the two largest, the Dallol Maouri in the east of the area and the Dallol Bosso in the west, stretch north-south for over 400 km. To the southwest, the plateau is broken by the Niger River valley. The cultivable area is estimated at 23,000 km2 and four main soil types can be distinguished. Plateau soils, which account for 19,000 km2, are sandy, frequently shallow, with numerous laterite outcrops and, even in the ancient tributaries of the dallols where the deeper soils have fair water-holding capacity, fertility is poor; such soils are being increasingly cultivated but they cannot withstand continuous cropping under present techniques. Terrace soils, found at the foot of the escarpments between the plateau and the dallols, are sandy-clays that are already being fully exploited. Sandy dallol soils of mainly alluvial origin have low exchange capacity and their content in loam and clay rarely exceeds 10%; these soils are also heavily exploited at present and mineral deficiencies are showing up. Both terrace and sandy dallol soils have higher potential for rainfed farming than indicated by rainfall because they have reasonable -7- water-holding capacity and, being low-lying, receive surface and subsurface runoff. Hydromorphic dallol soils are gray, often contain more than 10% organic matter and are generally of good potential; in continuously-cropped areas, however, magnesium and other deficiencies have been observed. Since in some spots saline and alkaline soils have been observed, as well as phreatic water with a high sodium content, sites for small-scale irrigation have to be carefully selected. 2.03 Water and Vegetation. Other than the Niger River, there are no permanent watercourses in the project area. On the plateau, water is generally found at 50 m and the need to dig through laterized sandstone strata to reach it impedes settlement and cultivation. In the dallols, by contrast, water is available at only a few meters, is readily accessible by hand-dug wells, and is used both for domestic purposes and small-scale irrigation. The shallow aquifer frequently comes to the surface and the dallols contain innumerable small ponds. The vegetation varies from semi-arid savannah with sparse tree cover in the north to heavily-wooded savannah including much borassus palm in the south. There are important populations of Gao (acacia albida) which are used for dry-season forage and Nere (parkia biglobasa), used for an oily condiment. B. Socio-Economic Features 2.04 Demography. The total population of the project area is about 700,000: by district-Birni 130,000, Dosso 150,000, Doutchi 260,000, Gaya 110,000 and Loga 60,000. There are five towns with more than 5,000 inhabi- tants, accounting for less than 10% of the population; the mass of the people live in 1,250 villages with an average population of 500. There are important differences in settlement patterns: whereas the average population per village in Doutchi administrative district is 1,100 it is less than 400 in Birni and Dosso. Data obtained from administrative censuses suggest population growth of nearly 3% per year in the decade through 1965 but of only about 2% per year in the following decade. This decline is due to increased infant mortality in the drought years of the early 1970s, but probably also reflects increased seasonal migration by young men. Whereas average population density is only 23/km2 and, between administrative dis- tricts, ranges from only 16/km2 in Dosso to 28/km2 in Gaya, these figures disguise severe differences between the plateau and the dallols and within the dallols; local population density frequently exceeds 100/km in the dallols, particularly in the northern Dallol Bosso and the central Dallol Maouri (Map 14214). 2.05 The People. The three main ethnic groups are the Hausa, Djerma and Fulani, respectively 50%, 40% and 10% of the population. The Hausa live primarily in the east, are concentrated in the Dallol Maouri around Doutchi and, prior to the tracing of the anglophone/francophone boundary in 1900, were under the authority of the Sultanate of Sokoto; close personal and commercial ties are still maintained with Sokoto. Hausa women participate fully in rainy - 8 - season cultivation, while dry-season field work is handled almost exclusively by the men. The Djerma live primarily in the west, in the Dallol Bosso; the Djerma wemen do not participate in rainy season cultivation, yet. are almost exclusively responsible for dry-season field work. The Fulani are more scattered but generally sedentarized and, fron e perman.ent home base, practice short-cycle transhumance to the Niger River val"ey, and on into Benin. All three groups, but particularly the Djerma and the Hausa, practice seasonal migration to the coastal countries: spot surveys suggest that 50% of econo- mically-active men migrate, but not until after the second weeding. Such dry-season migration is an important feature of rural life in Dosso Province, with the sole exception of Gaya administrative district. The effect of this seasonal migration is difficult to assess; however, given that improved agricultural techniques require only that participating farmers shorten rather than abandon their seasonal migration, the risk of farm labor shortage is limited. 2.06 Land Tenure. The basic pattern of land ownership and usage in the project area has been the so-called communal land tenure system, under which traditional leaders are considered to be the custodians of all land in their areas of jurisdiction, and are empowered to grant usufruct to heads of families. Theoretically, all lands could be repossessed by the community acting through the chief and the elders on the death or departure of the usufructaries. In practice, however, lands are generally inheritable through the family. At the discretion of the head of the family, land can also be divided among family members, or leased out to other families, or even to strangers; sale of farmland is, however, traditionally frowned upon or even prohibited. For all practical purposes, communal ownership is effectively exercised only in respect of vacant or virgin land and an individual or family, once granted a piece of land, would enjoy effective security of tenure. C. Institutions and Infrastructure 2.07 Local Government. A Governor for each of the seven provinces is appointed by and is the direct representative of the President. The Governor chairs the Provincial Technical Committee which includes as members all provincial heads of government departments, district Sub-Governors and representatives of chiefs. This Committee is responsible for coordination between government departments but has no budgetary authority, which is retained by the ministries in Niamey. Committees with a similar membership exist at the administrative district level; chaired by the Sub-Governor, they are also coordinating bodies but with some modest budgetary authority arising from power of allocation of local tax revenues. Administrative districts are divided into cantons governed by a chief, who is elected by the chiefs of the villages concerned and receives a government allowance; the canton is the point of contact between modern government and traditional authority. A weakness of the system is that provincial heads of government departments are subject to directives from both their technical superiors in their ministry and from their politico-administrative superiors in the Governor's office. - 9 - 2.08 Agricultural Services. The Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry Departments of the Ministry of Rural Development are well, though inadequately, represented in Dosso Province; the Rural Engineering Department has no staff or facilities there. The Agricultural Research Institute (INRAN) undertakes some research, directed from Niamey, but none concerning rainfed farming. Although UNCC (para. 1.05) was created in 1962, it is only in the last few years that efforts, sometimes too hastily, have been made to establish coop- eratives throughout Dosso; there are now 11 cooperative unions, 46 coopera- tives and 375 village-level mutual guarantee groups serviced by a network of 16 warehouses of which four are located in administrative district centers. In late 1978, government decided to reorganize the cooperative structure so that cooperatives could correspond to an agricultural extension district of about 3,000 families. 2.09 Marketing and Processing. SONARA (para 1.05), through cooperative markets or, mainly in Gaya administrative district, through licensed agents, provides an effective collection service for groundnuts and cowpeas. It has a groundnut shelling plant in Dosso town with a capacity of 25,000 tons unshelled nuts per year, though its purchases in Dosso Province have averaged only 3,000 tons/year over the last decade. Purchases of cowpeas averaged over 10,000 tons/year in 1974/75 - 1976/77 but fell to 1,000 tons in 1977/78. OPVN purchases of millet and sorghum are insignificant, averaging 300 tons/year. CFDT handles cotton extension work and marketing, and operates a ginnery at Gaya with a capacity of 2,000 tons/ year; purchases of seed cotton average only 200 tons/year and have been declining. These parastatal agencies together with a handful of licensed traders are the sole authorized buyers from the cooperatives. The proximity of Nigeria and Benin, the permeability of the frontier, and past Government price policies ensure, however, that private buyers with well-established networks are operative in the area (para 1.07). Livestock marketing is managed through a traditional private system in which herdowners sell stock either directly or through professional collection agents to large traders. There are many livestock markets of which the most important, notably Mokko, cater for both local and inter-provincial trade; none of the markets has facilities for cattle handling or veterinary control. Most of the cattle offtake but less than half of the smallstock offtake is exported. Animals are moved on the hoof into Nigeria, and then by road and rail to the south. Cattle exports are presently regulated by a licensing system which, while not entirely effective, is nonetheless a nuisance for all involved in cattle trading. For local consumption, there are no modern abattoirs but there is a network of slaughter slabs with hide and skin drying facilities. 2.10 Roads and Communications. Located in the center of the Province, Dosso town is linked by paved roads to Birni (33 km) and then Niamey (140 km) in the northwest, to Gaya (95 km) and then Cotonou in the south, and to Doutchi (137 km) and then Maradi and Kano to the northeast. A good laterite road runs north from Dosso through Loga (80 km), and another runs through central Dallol Maouri. All other tracks are poor and, in the sandy terrain, four-wheel drive vehicles are required. The IDA feeder road project (para 1.01) will establish a brigade at Dosso, its first priority is a road - 10 - from Birni through northern Dallol Bosso, and subsequent priorities will be determined in the light of the requirements of the project now proposed. Dosso is linked by telephone to each of the administrative district capitals. 2.11 Power, Water, Health Services and Schools. For power, Dosso town has a diesel generator and will soon be linked to the existing Kainji Dam - Niamey high-tension line; Doutchi and Gaya both have small diesel generators; but there is no other existing or planned electrification in the province. For water supply, six centers are equipped with tubewells and piped supply at least to public water fountains; over half the rural population has access to a modern cement-lined well; but there are over 400 villages with no improved water source. For health, there are five hospitals, 23 dispensaries and eight child-care centers which, together, constitute one hospital bed per 3,000 people, and one trained medical agent per 7,000., To offset the scarcity of trained staff, a village health worker training program has been set up and there are presently over 300 unpaid paramedical workers in the field. A further program starting in 1979 will focus on their follow-up and super- vision. For education, there are 167 primary schools, generally with four classes and 40 students per class; the primary school enrolment rate is still under 20%. There are five secondary schools with a total of about 2,500 students, but no institutions of further education. An adult literacy program has been operating for some years; enrolment in 1977/78 was only 1,300. D. Land Use and Farm Income 2.12 Data Base. Available information on land use, farm sizes, and crop and livestock production is incomplete and sometimes contradictory; figures given below are therefore 'best estimates', subject to wide margins of error. One of the functions of project monitoring would be to provide more satis- factory basic information, and the project would retain sufficient flexibility to take account of such findings. 2.13 Land Use. A 1967 soil survey classified 74% of the total area, or 2.3 million ha, as cultivable. This is a maximum estimate since the classifi- cation was based on soil criteria alone, ignoring such factors as rainfall, availability of drinking water, and accessibility. A 1973 aerial survey covering 34% of Dosso Province, including each of the main ecological zones, showed that 25% of the total area, or 775,000 ha, was cultivated, and that 14% of the total area, or 420,000 ha, was in fallow. These data are updated to 1977 in Table 2.1. With about 90,000 farms, the average holding is 13 ha, with 9 ha cultivated and 4 ha in fallow, but there are wide differences between and within administrative districts reflecting rainfall, differences in planting densities and the relative importance of dallol and plateau farming. - 11 - Table 2.1. Land Use, Farm Size, Output and Income in 1977 Unit Birni Dosso Doutchi Gaya Logs Total Total Area ('000 ha) 442 873 1,105 404 276 3,100 Planted Area 1/ ('000 ha) 146 218 278 88 108 838 Fallow Area 2/ ('000 ha) 39 141 78 60 70 388 % of planted (%) 27 65 28 68 65 46 Harvested Area 3/ ('000 ha) 110 164 209 88 81 652 Total Population 6/ ('000) 128 152 256 108 62 706 Rural Population ('000) 125 140 230 95 58 648 Farm Families 5/ ('000) 18 20 33 14 8 93 Average Farm Sizes Planted (ha) 8.L 10.9 8.4 6.3 13.5 9.0 Fallow (ha) 2.2 7.1 2.4 4.3 8.5 4.2 Total (ha) 10.3 18.0 10.8 10.6 22.0 13.2 Crop output 6/ Millet ('000 tons) 32 41 64 36 20 193 Sorghum ('000 tons) 1 3 3 10 - 17 Cowpeas ('000 tons) 4 22 1C 20 5 69 Groundnuts ('000 tons) - 2 1 3 - 6 Other rainfed 7/ ('000 tons) 6 1 8 3 4 22 Bottomlands ('000 tons) 3 - 6 3 - 12 Livestock Output Liveweight for slaughter ('000 tons) 3.3 2.1 3.4 3.5 0.4 12.7 Milk ('000 tons) 3.1 1.9 3.3 3.3 0.4 12.2 Farm Income Crops 8/ (CFAF billion) 2.1 3.0 4.6 3.3 1.3 14.3 Livestock 9/ (CFAF billion) 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.9 Total (CFAF billion) 2.8 3.5 5.4 4.1 1.4 17.3 Per Farm Family (CFAF '000) 156 175 164 293 175 185 Per Head (CFAF '000) 22 25 23 42 25 27 in US$ (US$) 100 114 105 191 114 123 Rainfed Crops Per planted ha (CFAF '000) 13 14 15 35 11 16 Per Harvested ha 3/ (CFAF '000) 17 19 20 35 15 21 Per Farm Family (CFAF '000) 105 150 124 222 150 144 Per Head (CFAF '000) 15 21 18 32 21 20 in US$ (US$) 68 97 81 144 97 94 1/ 1973 aerial survey data, increased by 2%/year 1973-1977. 2/ 1973 aerial survey data, decreased by 2%/year 1973-1977. 3/ Harvested area as % planted area: Gaya 100%, alaxwbere 75%. 4/ Preliminary results of 1977 census adjusted by PlannLng uepartment, Dosso. 5/ 7 people per family. 6/ 1976/77 season, i.e. harvested in late 1976; derived income available through 1977. 7/ Voandzou, maize, cassava (dry-matter). 8/ Valuation at harvest prices in CFAP/kg: millet 50; sorghum 45; cowpeas 45; groundnuts 50; other rainfed 40; bottomlands 100; net income 90% of gross income. 9/ Valuation in tFAF/kg: cattle 180; sheep and goats 250; milk 25. - 12 - 2.14 Farm Structure. All farms in the project area are small subsistence farms in the sense that food for home consumption is the first priority in farm decision-making, and nearly all field work is done manually by family labor. Farm size is therefore mainly a function of family labor, subject to the differing degrees to which women participate in cultivation (para 2.05). This qualification is also relevant to the degree of concentration of farm decision-making. Among the Djerma, family heads take all decisions on choice of rainfed crops, timing and cultivation techniques; among the Hausa, the women work both on the family fields, for which the family head is respon- sible, and on their own fields. In the latter, where they are responsible for all decisions, they customarily work for two days per week and are thereby the decision-makers for up to 30% of the family's cultivated areas. Lower priorities given to womens' fields make improvements difficult because these fields are generally planted too late and applying fertilizer on such fields would be wasteful. A family holding is usually fragmented into a number of plots and increasingly so from south to north. Fragmentation has increased where, in the most densely populated parts of the dallols, the only means of expansion of cultivated area has been to open up new fields on the plateau. Much loss of time results, and transport from field to farmstead or market becomes more demanding. Since field preparation is limited to a simple cleaning that can be extended over time, the key labor constraints are at planting and weeding; planting is widely spaced, in holes, and at different times and in different locations. Depending on rainfall and early plant growth, the farmer then chooses which fields to weed. By harvest time, some fields wil have been totally abandoned, others will have received only one weeding, yet others will have been carefully maintained right through the season. In general, in the north and center of the project area, only about 75% of the planted area is actually harvested; only in the extreme south does a 'farm' correspond to an area that is planted and also harvested. 2.15 Crop Production. The principal crops are millet, sorghum, cowpeas and groundnuts. Other rainfed crops include voandzou (voandzeia subterranea) a leguminous crop similar to groundnuts, maize, which is beginning to expand, and some cotton. In addition, vegetables, sugar cane, paddy, cassava, sweet potatoes and some fruits are grown on the bottomlands. Summary production data are shown in Table 2.1. Millet covers about 90% of the harvested area and is about 40% intercropped with cowpeas. Cowpeas are invariablly inter- cropped, except where the existing Pilot Project (para. 2.19) has introduced single-cropping in blocks. Sorghum is about 50% intercropped but groundnuts are generally single-cropped. A consistent pattern of intercropping or sequential cropping is, however, rarely found. In the dallols, where the soils are most favorable and the population most dense, fertility is declining as fallow periods are being shortened and even eliminated; yields are low and probably declining. Elsewhere, intrinsically poor soils are being increas- ingly cultivated and yields are also low. 2.16 Livestock Production. The livestock population of the project area is about 300,000 cattle, 600,000 smallstock, and about 20,000 each of horses, donkeys and camels. The cattle are all zebu types, primarily Bororo and Azawak, the latter being well suited to fattening and animal traction. The - 13 - animal health situation is broadly under control and, though vaccination coverage is incomplete, there have been no significant losses from contagious diseases for many years. Recently, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia threathened to re-emerge but it is being successfully combatted. The northern limit of the tsetse fly cuts into the extreme south of Dosso Province and, though not a serious threat, trypanocidal treatments are warranted. Most of the cattle are managed but not necessarily owned by the Fulani people. Although many crop farmers are also livestock owners, the integration of livestock and crop farming is still limited. A modest link is obtained through contracts between herdsmen and farmers whereby animals grazing crop residues fertilize the fields. A more substantial link is increasingly practised over much of the project area: crop residues are harvested and stored for feeding to animals kept in farmers' compounds. Animal traction is little used, but there is growing and largely unsatisfied demand for work oxen and carts, donkey carts and, to a lesser extent, implements for cultivation. Total annual production from cattle and smallstock is about 13,000 tons liveweight and 12,000 tons of milk. Eggs and poultry production, almost exclusively handled by women, is not known. 2.17 Farm Income. Although estimates of farm income are rough orders of magnitude, the relative levels and composition of farm income by administra- tive district shown at Table 2.1 are generally coherent. Whereas provincial average farm income is CFAF 185,000 (US$840) for a typical seven-member farm family, district average farm income varies from CFAF 156,000 (US$710) at Birni to CFAF 293,000 (US$1,330) at Gaya. Income from rainfed crops varies even more widely, reflecting land productivity and the extent to which women participate in rainy-season cultivation; while the provincial average is CFAF 144,000 (US$655), district averages vary from CFAF 105,000 (US$480) at Birni to CFAF 222,000 (US$1,010) at Gaya. Although significant locally, income from bottomland crops is a minor determinant of farm income at the district level. Income from livestock accounts for 17% of provincial average farm income but its relative share varies from 25% at Birni to 9% at Loga. The practice of transhumance does, however, extend an unusual arbitrariness to estimations of livestock population and income by district. In addition, and unlike crop income which is a function of family labor and women's participation, live- stock income is related to ownership. While this is not uniform, virtually all farm families have some livestock, smallstock ownership is probably fairly uniform, and income from cow's milk accrues to the herdsmen managers rather than the owners; what is at stake for income distribution analysis is income from cattle for slaughter. This amounts to CFAF 1.5 billion (US$7 million), which is 52% of livestock income but only 9% of total farm income. Whereas highly non-uniform cattle ownership would not therefore reduce incomes of small cattle owners or non-owners appreciably, the amount at stake is such that large owners' income could be much higher than others' incomes. 2.18 Target Group. While there is much diversity between the south and the north, and the dallols and the plateau, in farm size, crops and farming practices, district average per capita farm incomes are remarkably similar, with the exception of Gaya. For rainfed farming, district average per capita incomes are more varied; with an index of 100 for Birni, such incomes elsewhere - 14 - are: Doutchi 120; Dosso and Loga 140; Gaya 210. Birni and Doutchi are the two districts which exhibit the highest local population densities, the lowest proportion of fallow to cultivated land, the clearest indications of declining soil fertility and, probably, the highest incidence of seasonal migration; they are the areas where land intensification would be most warranted and also most profitable since present yields are so low and the scope for area expansion so limited. Birni and Doutchi and, within these districts, the most heavily populated areas are therefore the first-priority zones for project interventions. This 'first' target group numbers about 300,000, with average per capita farm income of about US$100, and little dispersion about the average except that occasioned by non-uniform distri- bution of cattle ownership. By the end of the project, moreover, training, extension, input supply and credit services would be made accessible to 80% of the people in the project area. The remaining 20% are people farming in the northernmost plateau country in Loga and Doutchi, and these families would nonetheless receive some livestock services. 2.19 The Existing Pilot Project. Beginning with the 1975/76 season, FAC has financed a pilot project aimed at increasing yields of cowpeas and millet, increasing the area under cotton and, beginning in 1977/ 78, increasing yields of groundnuts. Under this first broad-based rainfed farming project in Dosso Province, these objectives were to be reached by extension, input supply through credit-in-kind, and strengthening some of the existing government services. The project also includes a cattle fattening component and a 30 ha irrigated citrus plantation. The project was to end with the 1978/79 season but FAC has agreed to continue its financing through 1979/80 as, in effect, preparatory activities for the project now proposed. Faced with making use of 140 newly-recruited and hastily-trained extension assistants, the FAC project stipulated that, in order to qualify for extension help and inputs, farmers should put together 10 ha blocks of land for single-cropping, with 1 ha per farmer. This policy was adopted on grounds that it would improve the effi- ciency of the extension assistants, enabling them to supervise effective input use and, moreover, would constitute a genuine expression of interest by farmers. In its first two years, the project far exceeded its objectives, reaching 6,600 ha of cowpeas in 1975/76 and 12,600 ha of cowpeas and 3,400 ha of millet, that is 16,000 farmers, in 1976/ 77. Seasonal credit repayment rates were 98% in 1975/76 on in-kind loans of CFAF 29 million (US$130,000) and, in 1976/77, 93% on CFAF 67 million (US$305,000). No accurate yield data are available - the project had no monitoring capacity - but agronomists concurred that yields were appreciably higher than on unimproved plots; moreover, the impressive credit repayment rates, uncommon in Niger, attest that farmers made money. Encouraged by the initial results, project manage- ment set an objective of 20,000 ha for 1977/78, but the actual area, at 14,700 ha, was slightly lower than the year before. For 1978/79, project management retained the objective of 20,000 ha, but the actual area fell further back to 8,600 ha. The main reason for this decline lay in the manner in which the blocks of land were constituted. In practice, such blocks could only be put together in less densely-populated areas. There, the most common practice was the 'leasing', by a group of 10 farmers, of cultivation rights on fallow land - 15 - controlled by a few usufructaries. As soon as and sometimes even before the residual effect of phosphate applied to cowpeas became evident in the follow- ing millet crop, the usufructaries generally reclaimed their land. Soon, potential members of new block-farming groups desisted, for they had no guarantee that they would reap the benefits of their investments. As a curious but not immediately alarming development, there is now very little evidence that the inputs and cultural practices introduced in the blocks are being applied in block members' own fields. Indeed, the existing Pilot Project is working in 1979 to promote adoption of improved techniques in farmers' own fields. The project's cotton component was a failure, the climatic conditions being too marginal, but the fattening component was successful in that about 2,000 head were fattened each year with a credit repayment rate of 97%. III. THE PROJECT A. Objectives and Summary Description 3.01 The broad objectives of the proposed project are in accord with Government's policies of increasing agricultural production and farm incomes to improve the welfare and standard of living of the rural population. The main specific objectives are to increase production of cereals, cowpeas, groundnuts, livestock, and bottomland crops in ways that would reverse the present decline in productivity. The project, to be implemented over five years, would include: (a) constructing a training center with facilities for 75 boarders, providing courses for village extension workers and staff, intro- ducing the Training and Visit system of agricultural extension, and constructing and operating 24 rural extension centers; (b) improving farming practices, increasing input use on about 150,000 ha of rainfed cereals, cowpeas and groundnuts, and supplying about 6,400 donkey-traction units and about 1,800 ox-traction units; (c) strengthening the farm input and implement supply system and constructing 30 and improving 12 rural cooperative centers; (d) improving vaccination coverage, delivery of drugs and feed supplements, and animal husbandry practices for beef cattle and work oxen; (e) establishing a rural engineering unit to plan and supervise construction of dispersed rural works and to execute improve- ments on 200 ha of small-scale irrigation in bottomlands; - 16 - (f) conducting trials to test the introduction of new techniques and farming practices, particularly with regard to soil fertility; (g) providing for a management structure with the required tech- nical and administrative staff and logistical support, in- cluding the capability for evaluating project progress and providing guidelines for future projects. B. Detailed Features 3.02 Rainfed Farming. Of all farmers to be reached by the extension service by year 5, about 30% are expected to adopt improved techniques on part of their farms: Project intervention would therefore improve cultivation practices on 76,000 ha farmed by some 16,700 smallholders who would adopt improved manual cultivation techniques and on an additional 70,000 ha managed by 8,200 farmers who would adopt improved animal traction techniques. Taking account of variations in farming systems between the south and the north, and the dallols and the plateau, the project area may be divided into three agro-ecological zones (Map 14214); in a fourth area, the plateau country north of a limit approximating the 550 mm isohyet, no attempt would be made to improve rainfed farming. Details of inputs and estimated yields by zone are at Annex 2, Table 1 and main project inputs are summarized at Table 3.1. In rainfed farming the project's success would depend critically on the establishment of an effective extension service and an adequate, timely, input supply system. 3.03 Training and Extension. Existing extension staff would be retrained so that they would be able to operate through the Training and Visit (TV) system of organized, closely-supervised agricultural extension. To this end, a Training Center would be constructed near the village of Ayali, about 10 km south of Dosso town, close to the tarred road to Gaya. The center would primarily serve to give four-month courses, in the dry season, on farm manage- ment and extension techniques to village extension workers (VEW). Beginning in Year 2, two classes of 25 pupils each would enter the courses and 36 VEW are expected to graduate successfully. The lower age limit for entry would be 18 years but almost all the trainees would be considerably older, the majority having gained some experience with extension work under the existing Pilot Project (para. 2.19). The minimum admission level would be elementary school completion, preferably with a year or more of secondary education. The Center would also train middle and upper level agricultural staff in the TV system, as detailed in Working Paper 2. It would also be used for refresher courses and to train enumerators for the project's Monitoring and Evaluation Section; in addition, one-week programming and evaluation seminars would be held in March, July and October of each year for the entire extension staff. Under the supervision of a specialist in the TV system, courses and seminars would be given by senior agricultural staff working in the project area and by staff from the Kolo Agricultural Training Institute. A 40 ha farm would be attached to the Center for practical training purposes and for applied research that could not yet be tested on farmers' fields. - 17 - Table 3.1 MAIN PROJECT INPUTS Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Training and Visit System Village extension workers trained No. - 36 36 36 36 144 Agricultural Districts newly operational: - North No. - - 2 3 3 8 Center No. - 4 3 2 2 11 South No. - 2 1 1 1 5 Total No. - 6 6 6 6 24 Incremental Farmers Contacted 1/ No. - 20,736 20,736 20,736 20,736 82,944 Demanders of inputs for 2/: Manual cultivation No. - 1,390 4,170 5,557 5,557 16,671 Donkey traction No. - 456 1,483 2,167 2,281 6,387 Ox traction No. - 228 570 570 456 1,824 Total No. - 2,074 6,220 8,294 8,294 24,882 Incremental Inputs Improved seed tons - 426 1,235 1,541 1,429 4,631 Fertilizer Rock phosphate tons - 1,240 3,980 5,860 6,480 17,560 Triple superphosphate tons - 685 1,525 1,830 1,605 5,645 Urea tons - 543 1,822 2,175 2,172 6,712 Total tons - 2,468 7,327 9,865 10,257 29,917 Insecticide '000 litres - 5 18 30 33 86 Livestock Development Incremental vaccines '000 165 165 165 60 60 615 Incremental drugs '000 30 22 30 29 32 143 Steer fattening loans No. 800 800 800 800 800 4,000 Bottomland Development Equipment for pilot irrigation ha - 50 50 50 50 200 Inputs for bottomland crops ha - 450 950 950 950 3,300 Civil Works Training Center No. 1 - - - - 1 Rural extension centers No. 6 6 6 6 - 24 Rural cooperative centers No. 3 3 9 9 6 30 Vaccination yards No. 6 6 - - - 12 Vehicles and Equipment 10-ton trucks No. 3 7 6 4 - 20 Four-wheel drive station wagons No. 6 - - 6 - 12 Four-wheel drive pickups No. 8 7 6 14 6 41 Sets of field office equipment No. 42 9 15 15 6 87 Horses No. 28 38 18 18 36 138 1/ 3456 farmers per model agricultural district. 2/ Number of demanders is 10% in the first year of contact, 20% in the second year and 10% in the third year; i.e. 40% after three years; further details are at Table 5.1. - 18 - 3.04 Operation of the Extension Service. During the rainy season, the VEW would make field visits on horseback to groups of contact farmers. In each two-week period, each retrained VEW would visit eight groups of, on average, eight contact farmers and work with them in their fields for a full day. In the remaining four working days per fortnight, the VEWs would be briefed for the next two-week period by their agricultural district officer. Such briefings would be held in each district's rural extension center, comprising a 64 m2 office/meeting room block, 90 m2 boarding facilities, stables and a 60 m2 house for the agricultural district officer. Villages of less than 100 inhabitants, or about 14 farms, would be grouped together for extension visits, while each village of between 100 and 1,000 inhabitants would be visited by a VEW for one full day per fortnight; larger villages would have more than one group of contact farmers and be visited for more than one day. Each agricultural district would have on average six VEWs and cover 48 villages. Sub-districts would be established wherever necessary to fit the proposed structure of the extension service, i.e. if farm density justifies it. Since each contact farmer would work with, on average, eight other farmers each VEW would service 576 farmers, a relatively small number for a TV system due to the large number of small villages. The TV system would be introduced beginning in Year 2, in six agricultural districts per year, at the locations and with the phasing, starting in the dallols and then moving up onto the plateau, shown on Map 14215. By Year 5, 24 agricultural districts or sub-districts would be fully operational and 83,000 farmers would have access to extension advice. Each agricultural district officer would have a four- wheel drive vehicle in order to supervise his six VEW for at least one full day each during the 14-day cycle. He would be responsible for reviewing progress with and briefing his VEWs, and he himself would receive training from his administrative district officer at similarly regular intervals. The content of the fortnightly extension programs and the briefing and training meetings would be prepared by the project's specialists in training and extension, and in agriculture. 3.05 Contact Farmers. The choice of contact farmers is critical, yet difficult, in that a balance has to be struck between social and technical considerations. Contact farmers would therefore be chosen by their fellow villagers after the VEWs would have explained the technical selection cri- teria. Selection of contact farmers would be regularly reviewed by farmers as well as the VEWs and the system would be flexible enough to allow contact farmers to be changed. It would be the responsibility of contact farmers to train their farmer groups at the same regular intervals as they are themselves trained. Receipt of extension information first hand should be sufficient remuneration for contact farmers' efforts. 3.06 Rates of Adoption of New Techniques. It is difficult, even after drawing on the experience of similar ongoing projects in northern Nigeria, to be precise as to the numbers of farmers who will choose to adopt improved techniques. It is nonetheless clear that many farmers would participate to some degree, although the majority may not follow all the recommendations on all their cultivated areas. For purposes of estimating project inputs and outputs, it is assumed that an adoption rate of 40% is reached three years - 19 - after the first contact by VEWs, 10% in the first year, a conservative esti- mate since less than the number of contact farmers alone (12%), 20% in the second year and 10% in the third. It is further assumed that adoption of improved manual farming techniques implies use of such techniques on only two-thirds of the farm, to reflect the role of women in farm decision-making (para 2.14) as well as labor constraints; by contrast, adoption of improved animal traction farming techniques would permit an increase in harvested area per farm. Actual adoption rates could vary between those postulated above and, for instance, 80% adoption of one-third of the farm for those using improved manual farming techniques. 3.07 Improved Farming Techniques. Based on the production functions at Annex 2, Table 1, the return per hectare and required labor input are speci- fied at Annex 2, Table 2. Returns per farm and per labor-day at full devel- opment for adopters of improved manual farming techniques and those adopting improved animal traction techniques are shown at Annex 2, Table 3. The incre- mental area to be improved under the project would reach 87,800 ha of cereals, 34,700 ha of cowpeas and 23,700 ha of groundnuts, up from a total improved area in 1979 of 9,000 ha; details are at Annex 2, Table 4. It is estimated that, in each agricultural district, two-thirds of adopters would use improved manual farming techniques and that the incremental area cultivated with such techniques in Year 5 would reach 76,500 ha (Annex 2, Table 5). The incre- mental area cultivated with improved animal traction techniques would reach 69,700 ha in Year 5; of this figure, 55,000 ha would be cultivated with 6,400 donkey-traction units in the north and center of the project area and the balance with 1,800 ox-traction units in the south. Although animal traction improves seeding precision and plant density, no yield increases have been attributed to these improvements. The main effect of animal traction, after the initial demand for local transport would have been saturated, would be an expansion in cropped area per farm, estimated at 1 ha in the north and 2 ha in the center and south, in certain cases leading to a further reduction of fallow land. In all cases, most of the production increase would be obtained in the first year of adoption (60% of the increment) due to the immediate effect of fertilizer; yields would increase by a further 20% per year to full production in the third year after initial adoption. Annex 2, Table 7 shows the growth of production of rainfed crops under these assumptions. 3.08 Input Supply. Inputs, procured by the project through the operation of a special account (para 3.16), would be delivered by suppliers to adminis- trative district headquarters. Subsequent distribution to rural cooperative centers where farmers would collect their inputs, would be organized by UNCC as at present, and the project would provide 20 10-ton four-wheel drive trucks for such distribution. A rural cooperative center, which together with a rural extension center would constitute a farm service center, would consist initially of one 200 m2 warehouse containing an office and sales counter, a store for toxic materials as well as bulk storage space, and a 60 m2 house for the warehouse manager. Such centers would be built in each agricultural dis- trict or sub-district in line with the introduction of the TV system; where not already existing, they would be built at the inception of the new extension - 20 - system, and a second warehouse of the same size would be built two years later. Depending on demand for inputs within a district, the second storage facility could be built in a different location. Depending on villagers' interest, such facilities could be built by villagers in improved mud-brick with cement, roofing, doors, frames and skilled labor supplied by the project. The project would provide, in sum, 30 additional warehouses and staff houses as well as minor improvements at 12 existing rural cooperative centers and, to complete the existing network at administrative district level, a 250 m2 warehouse at Doutchi. Total storage capacity would allow for covered storage of the Year 5 volume of improved seeds, triple superphosphate and urea; rock phosphate would have been distributed to farmers and even applied to the fields before the onset of the rainy season. The four-wheel drive vehicle assigned to the rural extension center would be used by the warehouse manager, who would be aided by two cooperative assistants equipped with horses, to assess local demand for inputs before the agricultural season and, after the harvest, to recover seasonal credits and to collect medium-term loan repay- ments. Seasonal inputs would be distributed against cash or as credit in-kind and animal traction equipment, repair units and sprayers would be distributed against cash or through medium term credit (with 10 percent downpayment) provided by CNCA. These loans would be repayable over four years and bear interest at the prevailing rate for agricultural credit. This rate is cur- rently 9.5 percent. Since annual inflation over the last three years was over 12 percent and is expected to remain at this level over the next. three years, the current rate has therefore a hidden subsidy element. Incremental volumes of the main inputs are summarized at Table 3.1; aggregate volumes would increase substantially, notably for fertilizer from 500 tons pre-project to 13,000 tons of triple superphosphate and urea in Year 5 and thereafter, as well as average annual application of 4,400 tons of rock phosphate after Year 5. 3.09 Livestock Development. To improve vaccination coverage and access to drugs and curative services, the project would provide some additional facilities for the Livestock Department, namely one veterinary post at Dioundiou, 12 vaccination yards, minor extension and rehabilitation of offices, five four-wheel drive vehicles, a truck and some cooling equipment. Existing staff would thereby become mobile throughout the year and the net- work of field facilities, at which activities would be regularly supervised, would be adequate to provide basic services throughout the project area. Vaccination coverage for rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia would be increased from 60% to 75%; smallstock vaccinations, which are cur- rently negligible, would increase to 10% of the herd; and drug treatments against internal parasites would reach 143,000 per year by the end of the project. The existing credit scheme for steer fattening would be expanded by an additional 800 loans per year and these animals, together with work oxen, would receive first priority for anti-parasitic drugs and feed supplement distribution. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that antiparasitic drugs and feed supplements would be sold at prices sufficient to cover costs of purchase, delivery and final distribution, and that proceeds from such sales would be put into a revolving fund to be managed by the project. Finally, in order to ensure better animal health control at the main livestock market in the project area, and more hygienic slaughter facilities at the - 21 - abattoir outside Dosso town, the project would provide for fencing and equipping the market at Mokko, and for expanding, covering and bringing piped water to the Dosso abattoir. Government would provide the necessary financing for operation and maintenance of the respective facilities. 3.10 Bottomland Development. Dry-season cropping of vegetables, sugar cane and root crops, which is presently practiced on 3,500 ha of bottomlands in the dallols, would be increased by introducing improved inputs. At 18 selected sites totalling 200 ha, initially identified by a Belgian aid mission (para 1.01) and where discussions have already been initiated with farmers, existing small-scale irrigation would be improved with simple means. In the vicinity of shallow hand-dug wells, hand tools would be loaned to farmers for digging small irrigation channels and to construct field bunds to retain water after the rainy season in locations suitable for rice cultivation. Around existing artesian tubewells, the project would provide irrigation pipes on medium-term loans to groups of about 20 farmers, after the farmers had provided all unskilled labor required for construction of stilling basins. At both types of locations, hand tools for cultivation would be made available for sale at full cost prices. The Rural Engineering Department would provide farmers with advice on how to lay out their irrigation system and construct and maintain wells, canals and structures. Village extension workers would advise on improved cultural practices and improved inputs. Improved irrigation of bottomlands would be a pilot operation that would be monitored to provide data for an extension under a possible follow-up project. 3.11 Applied Research. The project's rainfed farming activities are based on a few simple and substantially proven techniques (Section 5.A) that could be successfully applied with an effective extension service and adequate, timely, input supply. There is still a need for more research to identify further improvements. Further, the fragile ecology of the more densely- populated parts of the project area and possible problems arising from sustained use of chemical fertilizers require that the natural environment, particularly soils, be carefully monitored. An applied research unit would therefore be set up concentrating on farming systems, fertilizer use, and soil and water conservation. Most of the research work would be carried out on farmers' fields. Farming systems research would include variety and inter- cropping trials, the use of animal-drawn implements on intercropped fields, and the introduction of animal-drawn chisel plows in combination with minimum tillage practices. Fertilizer research would focus on monitoring mineral deficiencies and possible remedies, and using rock phosphate in combination with other fertilizers. A new technology for granulating rock phosphate developed by IFDC would be tested under field conditions. Watershed manage- ment research would be designed, with the assistance of consultants, to devise simple systems of soil and water conservation in the dallols. 3.12 Buildings. The Training Center would be the only substantial building complex, with a gross area of 1,740 m2. New offices in Dosso town would be built as extensions to existing buidings (270 m2 in total), with the sole exception of the Rural Engineering Department for which a new building of - 22 - 180 m2 would be constructed. In rural areas, although improved mud-brick construction would entail an initial cost saving of 65%, all buildings with the possible exception noted at para 3.08 would be in concrete, since main- enance of dispersed rural works would be complex and probably costly, and recruitment and retention of good staff requires attractive facilities. Farm service centers, comprising a rural extension center (214 m2) and a rural cooperative center (260 m2), would be built in each of the 24 agricultural districts to the extent that existing buildings are inadequate. A second storage facility would be built in the second year after introduction of the TV system in each agricultural district. The surface area of all farm service center buildings would be 12,900 m2. 3.13 Implementation Schedule. The phasing of the main project activities is illustrated at Chart 20154. Although newly-retrained village extension workers would not begin to work nor project-supplied inputs be delivered until April-May of 1981, there would be little slack between then and expected effectiveness at end-1979. The critical activities would be the construction of the Training Center, and the setting up of the Rural Engineering Department and thereby the capacity to design, tender for, and supervise construction of buildings for the first batch of farm service centers. Tender documents are being prepared for the Training Center and upon Bank approval of documents tendering would take place in early 1980. Procurement of inputs for delivery for the 1981 agricultural season would also be initiated in early 1980, depending on the results of an ongoing FAC study on the organization of input delivery. C. Cost Estimates 3.14 Total project costs for the five-year implementation period 1980-84 are estimated at CFAF 8.64 billion (US$39.3 million) with a foreign exchange component of 62%. Costs exclude direct taxes and import duties since these would be waived. Base cost estimates reflect November 1979 prices, the expected date of effectiveness. Physical contingencies include 10% for all civil works and operating costs, but no provision for vehicles and equipment, staff or inputs since specifications and quantities are clearly established; the sole exceptions are the bottomland development and applied research components for which 20% physical contingencies are provided for civil works, operating costs and vehicles and equipment. Expected price increases are compounded at the following annual rates: civil works 12%, local staff 10%, all other items 6%; total expected price increases amount to 18% of total project costs. Costs are detailed at Annex 2, Table 11 and summarized at Table 3.2. - 23 - Table 3.2 SUMMARY PROJECT COSTS Share of Total Foreign Project Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost Exchange --- (CFAF Million --- --- (US$ Million) --- (%) (%) Training 200 356 556 0.9 1.6 2.5 7 64 Extension 402 387 789 1.9 1.7 3.6 9 49 Input Supply: Delivery System 336 505 841 1.5 2.3 3.8 10 60 Improved Seed 101 188 289 0.5 0.8 1.3 3 65 Agro Chemicals 594 1,104 1,698 2.7 5.0 7.7 20 65 Equipment 497 922 1,419 2.3 4.2 6.5 16 65 Subtotal 1,528 2,719 4,247 7.0 12.3 19.3 49 64 Livestock Develop- ment 153 311 464 0.7 1.4 2.1 5 67 Rural Engineering 95 168 263 0.4 0.8 1.2 3 64 Applied Research 53 107 160 0.2 0.5 0.7 2 67 Project Management 197 232 429 0.9 1.1 2.0 5 54 Refunding PPA 1 6 7 - - - - 80 Base Cost 2,629 4,286 6,915 12.0 19.4 31.4 80 62 Physical Contin- gencies 61 108 169 0.3 0.5 0.8 2 64 Expected Price Increases 669 886 1,555 3.0 4.1 7.1 18 57 Total Project Cost 3,359 5,280 8,639 15.3 24.0 39.3 100 61 D. Proposed Financing 3.15 It is proposed that an IDA credit of US$20 million be made to Government on standard terms to finance 51% of project costs. The French Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE) would contribute US$4.5 million, the terms of the CCCE loan are to be defined between CCCE and Government. Fulfillment of conditions preceding initial disbursement of the CCCE loan is a condition of effectiveness. The French Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC) would provide a grant of US$2.3 million equivalent. - 24 - Total external financing would be US$26.8 million, or 68% of total costs, covering 100% of foreign exchange costs (US$24.4 million) and 18% of local costs. Government would contribute US$7.2 million which would finance all incremental local staff, 21% of civil works, 25% of vehicles and equipment, and 71% of operating costs. The CNCA would contribute US$1.1 million which would finance all loans for steer fattening. Beneficiaries would contribute US$4.1 million, which would cover all costs of oxen and 16% of incremental non-annual inputs. The financing plan is detailed at Annex 2, Tables 12 and 13, and summarized below: Total IDA CCCE FAC GOVT. CNCA Beneficiaries --------------------(US$ Million)------------------ Civil Works 4.7 1.9 1.2 0.6 1.0 - - Vehicles and Equipment 2.4 - 1.2 0.6 0.6 - - Local Staff 2.6 - - - 2.6 - - Expatriate Staff and consultants 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.4 - - - Operating Costs 2.1 - 0.4 0.2 1.5 - - Incremental Inputs 15.3 12.7 - - - - 2.6 Animals 1.7 - - - - 1.0 0.7 Contingencies 7.8 4.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.8 Total 39.2 20.0 4.5 2.3 7.2 1.1 4.1 Percentage 100 51 11 6 18 3 10 Assurances were obtained at negotiations that, in addition to local financing of 31% of project costs, Government would finance (a) existing agricultural staff in the project area, including those presently financed under the seed farm project (USAID), the existing Pilot Project, and livestock fattening projects (FAC and FED) at the termination of such projects, and all associated operating costs (about US$1 million per year), and (b) subsidies on inputs which would increase from US$150,000 in 1979 to US$3.6 million (US$2.7 million at constant prices) in 1984. 3.16 To ensure the efficient and timely execution of the project, Government would establish three separate revolving funds to prefinance project activities as follows: (i) a Farm Supplies Fund with CNCA for prefinancing procurement of inputs and implements with an opening line of credit of CFAF 320 million; (ii) a Special Project Account with the National Development Bank (BDRN) for prefinancing all project operating costs with an initial deposit of CFAF 200 million; and (iii) an account with the National Treasury for prefinancing all project investments with an opening line of Credit of CFAF 400 million. Establishment of these revolving funds with the initial deposit and lines of credit is a condition of effectiveness of the IDA Credit. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that: (a) the Farm Supplies - 25 - Fund would be augmented by Government with an additional line of credit of CFAF 254 million (US$1.2 million) before September 30, 1981; (b) subsidies on inputs distributed for the ongoing agricultural season would be paid by Government into the same Farm Supplies Fund before September 30 of each year, starting with 1980; (c) all receipts from farmers' cash purchases, down payments on items acquired on medium term credit and all receipts from seasonal and medium term loan repayments would be kept in the Farm Supplies Fund, beginning on September 30, 1980; (d) any shortfall in seasonal and medium term loan repayments and price inceases on non-incremental inputs would be paid by Government into the Farm Supplies Fund by September 30 of each year, beginning in 1980; (e) the Special Project Account (ii) would be re- plenished at the beginning of each fiscal year, by an amount sufficient to cover Government's contribution to the financing of the project for that year on the basis of cash forecasts made by project management; and (f) the account with the National Treasury (iii) would be re-established at the beginning of each fiscal year through a line of credit granted on the basis of investment budget forecasts made by project management. E. Procurement and Disbursement 3.17 Procurement of civil works, inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) and farm implements amounting to approximately US$22.0 million would be through international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines in the case of contracts over US$100,000. Competitive bidding in accordance with local procedures, which are acceptable to IDA would be used for contracts less than US$100,000 (approximately US$2.0 million). For contracts less than US$30,000 competitive shopping would be employed (approximately US$1.0 million). For civil works local contractors would receive a 7.5% preference, and domestically manufactured goods would be allowed a 15% preference or the applicable import duty whichever is lower. Internationally recruited staff and consultants (estimated cost US$3.5 million) would be obtained following procedures acceptable to IDA. Vehicles and equipment amounting to US$2.8 million, would be financed by FAC and CCCE according to their own regulations. 3.18 Inputs to be procured through the Farm Supplies Fund would include both incremental and nonincremental quantities in one order for each input. Such orders would be subject to the procurement procedures specified at para. 3.17 even though, by Year 4 already, nonincremental quantities wholly financed by seasonal loan repayments and Government prepayment of the subsidy element would exceed project incremental quantities. 3.19 Applications for IDA credit withdrawal would be fully documented and a schedule of disbursements is at Annex 2, Table 14. The proceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed as follows: - 26 - Category I: Civil works, 40% of total expenditures (US$1.9 million); Category II: Expatriate staff and Consultants: (a) 55% if furnished by firms (US$1.0 million); (b) 100% if individuals (US$0.37 million); Category III: Inputs and Implements: 100% of total expenditures on incremental inputs and implements; US$12.7 million; Category IV: Refunding of the Project Preparation Advance (US$30,000); and Category V: Unallocated (US$4.0 million). F. Accounts and Audit 3.20 The project's Commercial, Financial and Administrative Section would keep records in accordance with sound accounting practices to reflect the project's operational and financial position. All project accounts and financial statements would be audited annually and the auditors would also review the proposed accounting system early in 1980. During negotiations, assurances were obtained from Government that: (a) the Farm Supplies Fund, the Special Project Account and the account with the National Treasury would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA; (b) the report of the independent auditors would be submitted to IDA within six months of the end of the project financial year; and (c) the report of the auditors would be of such scope and in such detail as IDA may reasonably request, including a statement as to whether or not IDA funds had been used for their intended purpose. IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT A. Project Management 4.01 The project would include a range of activities that are presently undertaken by the existing Pilot Project and some government agencies. The existing project, administered by UNCC, often functions in parallel with the provincial technical agencies. To avoid duplication of effort the new project would be executed through the regular government technical agencies. All proposed activities are, however, highly interdependent and successful implementation requires that they become the responsibility of a single Project Manager; he would also manage the continuation (and phasing out) of activities undertaken by the existing project. The proposed project organi- zation is shown on Chart 20156 and required responsibilities and qualifications of key personnel are at Annex 1. - 27 - 4.02 Under the Minister of Rural Development and the Provincial Governor, the Project Manager would be responsible for planning, managing and super- vising all project activities, including all project-financed staff. To support him in this task, two sections would be attached to his office: (i) the Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section (CAFS); and (ii) the Technical Section (TS), responsible for monitoring and evaluation. For all matters related to project execution the Provincial Officers for agriculture, livestock, input supply (UNCC), credit supply (CNCA), rural engineering, and applied research (INRAN) would report directly to the Project Manager. Rural engineering would be a new Provincial Department to be created under the project. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that (a) the Project Manager would introduce (i) by June 30, 1980, a project reporting system including quarterly progress reports and (ii) by December 31, 1980, a project monitoring system, both systems to be proposed by project management and reviewed by IDA; (b) the Project Manager would prepare and forward by July 31 of each year his annual work program and budget simultaneously to Government and IDA for approval; and (c) Government would, within six months of the closing date, prepare a project completion report. 4.03 The Provincial Agricultural Department has a representative in each of the five administrative districts who, in turn, have several agricultural district chiefs under their orders. At present, agricultural districts comprise one or more administrative cantons or sectors. Under the project the boundaries of some of the agricultural districts would be redefined depending on the number of farms and the size of the villages. Each agricultural district officer would have an average of six village extension workers (VEW) under his orders. The existing Pilot Project, which has its own extension workers, would gradually be phased out as extension workers are retrained and incorporated in the new project. The two Subject Matter Specialists, in training and extension, and in agriculture, have staff functions and would be attached directly to the Provincial Agricultural Department. The Training Center would also be under the Provincial Agricultural Officer, the Center's Administrator with the assistance of the Farm Manager being responsible for its operation. 4.04 The Provincial UNCC Representative also has a representative in each administrative district responsible for all cooperative activities. Each cooperative, one per agricultural district, would have a Warehouse Manager and two Cooperative Assistants. Cooperatives are, in effect, assemblies of mutual guarantee groups, and there would be one or more of these groups in each village involved in the project. 4.05 The Provincial Livestock Department is organized as the other provincial departments. Its representatives in each of the administrative districts supervise the veterinary posts. The Provincial Rural Engineering Department to be created would not be represented in the administrative districts. The Rural Engineering Department would have two Sections: (i) building design, contracts and supervision of construction; and (ii) irrigation development in bottomlands. CNCA is only represented at the - 28 - provincial level and credit administration and recovery would continue to be undertaken on its behalf by UNCC personnel at administrative district and cooperative levels. All Provincial Officers as well as the Project Manager would be members of the Provincial Technical Committee (para 2.07), as well as the Sub-Committee for Rural Development; topics such as execution priorities of feeder roads financed under 886-NIR would be decided by the latter. B. Staffing 4.06 Key staff for the project include the Project Manager, Chief CAFS, Chief TS, Provincial Agricultural Officer, Training Center Administrator, the subject matter specialists in training and extension, and in agriculture, the Applied Research Officer and Rural Engineering Officer. Only the Provincial Agricultural Officer occupies an existing position. Of the new functions that would be created both the Project Manager and the Training Center Administrator would be Nigeriens. Because Niger is generally short of trained and experienced staff with the capability of initiating and implementing a development program such as described in this report, the six remaining functions would need to be undertaken by expatriates. These positions would be filled through inter- national recruitment with which APMU would assist. Appointment of the Chief CAFS and the training and extension specialist is a condition of Credit effectiveness. 4.07 Consultants would be recruited for: (a) assisting the training and extension specialist in starting up the Training Center; (b) assisting both the agriculture specialist and the Applied Research Officer in setting up applied research programs on farming systems focussing on crops and animal traction; (c) assisting the Applied Research Officer in setting up programs of fertilizer and soil conservation research on farmers' fields; (d) assisting the chief TS in designing a monitoring and evaluation system that takes account of the project's sociological implications; and (e) preparing a possible follow-up project. Terms of reference for all consultants would be subject to prior approval by IDA. The project would provide, in sum, for: 27 man-years of technical assistance at a unit cost of US$76,000, based on recent APMU experience, and 28 man-months of consultant services at a unit all-inclusive cost of US$9,500, of which US$7,150 for fees, US$1,500 for living expenses, and US$850 for international travel. In addition, the Kolo Agricultural Training Institute would supply part-time staff for the Training Center to teach special subjects and assist in refresher courses. 4.08 For middle-level staff, namely agricultural district officers and warehouse managers, the number of graduates to be expected from the Kolo Agricultural Training Institute and the estimated number available for Dosso Province were at the base of project design. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that local technical staff would be appointed according to the schedule at Table 4.1. Appointment of VEWs would be a lesser problem since - 29 - Table 4.1 PROJECT STAFFING Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total ------------------------(man-years)------------------- Local Technical Staff Agronomists or similar (grade A) Project Manager 1 1 1 1 1 5 Agronomist - - - 1 1 2 Rural Engineer - - - 1 1 Applied Research Officer - - - 1 1 2 CFA 1/ Deputy Section Chief - - - 1 1 2 ME 27 Deputy Section Chief - - - - 1 1 Subtotal 1 1 1 4 6 13 Technical Officers (grade B) Training Center Administrator 1 1 1 1 1 5 Building Section Chief 1 1 1 1 1 5 Irrigation Section Chief 1 1 1 1 1 5 Accountants 1 2 3 3 3 12 Statistical Assistants 1 2 2 2 2 9 Draughtsmen 2 2 2 2 2 10 Topographers 2 2 2 2 2 10 Subtotal 9 11 12 12 12 56 Junior Technical Officers (grade C) Trainin3 Center Farm Manager - 1 1 1 1 4 Agricultural District Chiefs - 3 6 9 12 30 Cooperative warehouse managers - 3 6 15 24 48 Applied Research assistants 1 2 2 2 2 9 Subtotal 1 9 15 27 39 91 Field Technicians (grade D) Training Center teaching assistants - 3 3 3 3 12 Village extension workers - 36 72 108 144 360 Cooperative assistants - 6 12 18 18 54 Subtotal - 45 87 129 165 426 Total 11 66 115 172 222 586 Other Local Staff Mechanic for Training Center 1 1 1 1 1 5 Enumerators 10 20 3n 30 30 130 Secretaries 7 9 9 9 9 43 Clerks 8 11 13 13 13 58 Truck Drivers - 3 10 16 20 49 Drivers 10 17 23 29 35 114 Total 36 71 86 98 108 399 Total Local Staff 47 137 201 270 330 985 Expatriate Technical Assistants Training specialist 1 1 1 1 1 5 Agronomist 1 1 1 1 - 4 Rural Engineer 1 1 1 1 1 5 Applied Research specialist 1 1 1 1 - 4 CFA 1/ Section Chief 1 1 1 1 - 4 ME 27 Section Chief 1 1 1 1 1 5 Total 6 6 6 6 3 27 Consultants 3/ Training 3 3 - - - 6 Teaching A/ - 300 300 300 300 1,200 Agronomy - 1 1 - - 2 Applied Research - 2 2 2 2 8 Monitoring and Evaluation 2 2 2 - - 6 Preparation follow-up project - - 6 - 6 Total 5 8 5 8 2 28 1/ Commercial, Financial and Administrative Section. 2/ Monitoring and Evaluation Section. 3/ Man-months. 4/ Man-hours. - 30 - the majority are already working in the area and project management would be directly involved in their recruitment. Salaries of all Nigerien staff would be paid directly by the State to ensure post-project continuity, with the exception of allowances for local travel, supplies in-kind for horse mainten- ance and, for the Project Manager, representation and responsibility; these would be paid through the project account. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that Nigerien staff would be appointed for periods of at least three years, that the qualifications and experience of all key personnel mentioned in para 4.06 as well as their responsibilities (Annex 1) and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA, and that the terms and conditions of employment of internationally-recruited staff and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA. C. Monitoring and Evaluation 4.09 The lack of sound information on farming in the project area (para 2.12) creates a particular need for an effective monitoring and evalua- tion section. This would provide a dual service: to the Project Manager as a data collection, analysis and advisory unit, and to Government and other project financiers as a source of information for effective project supervi- sion and impartial assessment of performance. The Section would undertake a baseline survey in 1980 to provide precise information on farming systems and pre-project productivity. Farming systems would be surveyed throughout implementation, with priority given to crop yields in the more densely-popu- lated parts of the project area. The Section would also maintain a central data bank of basic planning and progress information, and would also keep a detailed record of management decisions and reasons for any departures from original proposals. Monitoring and evaluation programs would be designed in close coordination with consultants and submitted to IDA for approval before December 31, 1980. V. TECHNOLOGICAL AND PRODUCTION SPECIFICATIONS A. Rainfed Farming 5.01 Improvement of rainfed farming in the Sahelian Zone has in recent years shown mixed results. The effects of the severe drought in the early 1970s are still felt in that farmers have become very prudent with the appli- cation of new techniques that sometimes give results only in the less than 50% of the years that rainfall is above average. This has happened in areas where fertilizer use and animal traction have been introduced more than 20 years ago, and where further improvements are now limited by the slow progress of research to develop new technology (para. 1.12). In Dosso Pro- vince, however, present fertilizer consumtion is still very low at about 500 tons per year, extension services and animal traction have been introduced only Table 5.1 KEY TECINICAL 0DEFFICIENTS North Center South Farm Models (harvested area per crop in ha; labor input in days; millet/cowpeas intercropped) Millet Cowpeas Total Labor Millet Cowpeas Groundnuts Total Labor Sorghum Maize Groundnuts Total Labor Unimproved 5 4 9 474 2 3 K 1 6 356 4 - 2 6 352 Improved manual Improved part of farm 4 2 6 388 2 1 1 4 274 1 2 1 4 305 Remaining unimproved part 2 1 3 158 2 - - 2 132 2 - - 2 102 Total - - 9 546 6 406 6 47 Improved animal traction 7 3 10 472 4 2.5 1.5 8 402 1 4 3 8 462 Yields (kg/'ha) Millet Millet/ Cowpeas Millet Millet/ Cowpeas Groundnuts Sorghum Groundnuts Maize cowpeas (+ hay) cowpeas (+ hay) (+ hay) (+ hay) Unimproved 300 250/100 - 400 300/150 - 400 + 300 700 500 + 4oo - Improved 600 - 700 + 700 800 - 800 + 800 700 + 600 1,000 ao + 800 1,500 Fertilizer (kg/ha) Rock phosphate 200 - 0 200 - 0 0 200 200 0 TSP 0 - 50 0 - 50 100 0 0 150 Urea 50 - 0 75 - 0 0 100 100 0 Number of Farms Manual Animal Total Manual Animal Total Manual Animal Total Traction Traction Traction Total (Year 3 population base) 1/ 38,016 38,016 17,280 Incremental Adopters 2/ Year 2 0 0 0 927 456 1, 383 463 228 691 Year 3 463 228 691 2,546 1,255 3,801 1,158 570 1,728 Year 4 1,621 798 2,419 2,778 1,369 4,147 1,158 570 1,728 Year 5 2,54? 1,255 3,802 2,o84 1,026 3,110 926 456 1,382 Total cumulative thru Year 5 42631 6,912 8,335 4,106 12,41 38529 Total adopters as % of total farms 12 6 18 22 11 33 21 11 32 1/ Farms in the areas to which the farm models apply; total in this row: 93,312 farms; total number of farms (Year 3 population base) is 103,680; difference is the number of farms in the north of the project area, where improved rainfed farming is not possible. 2L For each group of farmers contacted (details at Table 3.1), 10% adopt in the first year, 20% in the second year, and 10% in the third; adoption entails 100% improved input use but yield performance is 60% in the first adoption year, 80% in the second year and 100% in the third. - 32 - recently: there are now only about 500 pairs of oxen. In this situation there is still a real demand, generated by the impact of the Pilot Project (para. 2.19), for fertilizers and farm equipment and projects in Northern Nigeria starting from a similarly low production level have already shown that input demand can rise to levels expected for this project: at Funtua fertilizer use rose from 6,000 tons to 17,000 tons in 2 years. Key technical coefficients are summarized in Table 5.1. They reflect soil conditions, rainfall distribution patterns, socio-economic constraints and labor availability. The proposed technology is relatively inexpensive and adapted to the local circumstances. Agronomic recommendations and yield projections are based on field results of the existing Pilot Project (para. 2.19), relevant research, and experience obtained in other projects under similar conditions of soils and climate. The present low yields on deteriorated soils are estimated to be about half those obtainable under the impact of fertilizer use and improved farming techniques. As results of the project's applied research component become available, crop recommendations would be modified. Although the project has for practical reasons been calculated on the basis of single cropping, this is not an agronomic recommendation. Intercropping, which is an existing practice, would even be promoted as soon as agronomic recommendations resulting from the project's applied research program would become available. In this respect, the design of the project has been kept flexible: a healthy response by farmers to changes in prices would generally be supported by the extension service; a major disease in groundnuts, such as the increasing danger of rust infesta- tion, would result in larger areas grown in cowpeas or cereals without affect- ing project outcome. 5.02 The proposed technology would involve better seed bed preparation, the use of improved planting material (improved varieties and/or selected seeds), increased planting density, appropriate fertilizer use, and timely thinning and weeding. Improved seed of cowpeas (TN 88-63), millet (P3 Kolo), sorghum (4d 8-2-3) and maize (P3 Kolo) would continue to be produced by the Guecheme seed farm. New cowpea varieties developed at Samaru in Nigeria (176B, 341, 335 and 355), and maize varieties from both Benin and Nigeria, would be tested under the applied research program. Rainfed maize is rela- tively new in the area, although it is grown extensively as a flood recession crop and sometimes with supplemental irrigation during the dry season in the bottomlands. Growing of rainfed maize would be introduced gradually, only starting from the second year, allowing time to select the best varieties. The last stage of seed multiplication would be done by farmers under contract, a system that has proven to be successful in the area. The groundnut seed stock (55-437 and 28-206) is replenished by obliging farmers to return 150% of seed received, a system that works reasonably well. Under the project simple techniques of seed selection of local varieties would be promoted. All seed would be treated with fungicides prior to planting. Pyrethrin-based insecti- cides would be used on cowpeas. Phosphate fertilizer would be given as a base application before planting. Nitrogen on cereals would be applied at appro- priate times in the growing cycle. On fields where no intercropping of cereals and legumes is practiced, a simple rotation of pure stands of these crops would be promoted. Cropping in blocks would not be promoted anymore and farmers would be advised to apply improvements on their own fields. - 33 - 5.03 Rock Phosphate. Every four years 200 kg/ha of rock phosphate would be applied on fields to be planted with cereals. Because of the relatively low dose, an additional application of triple super phosphate (TSP) on legumes has been foreseen. As technology becomes available to facilitate rock phos- phate application, allowing larger doses and improving its solubility, TSP usage could gradually be phased out. Rock phosphate application is important for the project's success on the most impoverished soils because of its beneficiary side effects from calcium and magnesium carbonates and trace elements. 5.04 Animal Traction. Although the introduction of draft animals is relatively new in the area, there is a substantial demand for agricultural equipment, in particular for carts. The equipment that would be used is simple. On the sandy soils in the North, continuation of minimum tillage practices would be promoted by using only a scarificator for soil preparation. Without plowing less traction is needed and all implements could be drawn by donkeys. However, where soils are too sandy for donkeys to pull loaded carts, mono-ox traction would be introduced. On the heavier soils in the South, simple plows would be used for soil preparation and farmers would have pairs of oxen, also needed to lift groundnuts and ridge maize. To reduce tillage in the South, ox-drawn chisel plows would be tested under the project. 5.05 Introducing one row seeders would allow farmers to plant in rows, thus permitting mechanical cultivation. Using seeders would improve planting precision and increase plant density. Since planting and weeding time are bottlenecks for the use of farm labor, limiting the acreage cropped per family, using animal traction would allow farmers to increase their cropped acreage. Up to now, introducing animal traction often accompanied the elimina- tion of intercropping as a farming practice because implements are designed for use on pure stands only. Use of animal traction for seeding and cultiva- tion on intercropped fields would therefore be tested under the project. B. Livestock Development 5.06 Improvement of animal health control would entail annual vaccination of 75% of the cattle population (up from 60%) against rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia during three years. Thereafter vaccinations against rinderpest would be continued for animals aged between six and 18 months, with a reserve stock of each vaccine, enough to cover 15% of the cattle population, kept available to deal with outbreaks. An additional 15,000 vaccinations against blackleg would be made for each of the first three years of the proj- ect; thereafter a reserve stock would be maintained, as is already the prac- tice for anthrax and pasteurellosis vaccines. For smallstock, anthrax vacci- nations would be made in contaminated areas as an encirclement of outbreaks and would reach about 10% of the smallstock population. A similar coverage is envisaged for smallstock plague. Drug treatment would be carried out at the end of the dry season and the end of the rainy season when staff is otherwise - 34 - underutilized. Cattle drugs would be provided for calves, work oxen and steers for fattening; treatments against thread worms would be made throughout the project area and against fluke worm only in the wetter areas, reaching 66,000 and 27,400 treatments respectively in the fifth year of the project. Similar treatments for smallstock would reach 35,000 and 15,000 doses. To reflect the production effect of vaccinations and drugs, a simplifying assump- tion of an increase in cattle offtake from 11% to 12% by Year 5 has been made. 5.07 Building on acquired experience, steer fattening loans would be made to purchase animals at about 275 kg for resale after about six months at 375 kg. As a complement to the forecast doubling of legume hay production (Table 5.2), the project would also operate a revolving fund for supply of feed supplements to be sold at full cost to steer fatteners as well as to oxen operators. C. Bottomland Development 5.08 The project would aim, first, to satisfy existing unsatisfied demand for high-quality seeds and then to move into provision of insecticides and fertilizer; only by the third year of the project would extension themes have been defined sufficiently to try to promote improved inputs. Such caution is a measure of the extent to which the bottomland development component of the project would be a pilot exercise. D. Production 5.09 Production by volume and value is summarized at Table 5.2. To separate out the population effect, "with" and "without" project production are calculated with estimated 1982 population and cultivated area. The main changes at full development would be an increase in output of cereals by 35,000 tons (16%), of cowpeas by 21,000 tons (59%) and of groundnuts by 8,000 tons (23%). Liveweight cattle output, including old oxen, would increase by 2,500 tons (26%) and bottomland crops by 900 tons (8%). Total crop and livestock production would increase 21% by value. VI. DEMAND, MARKETING AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS A. Demand 6.01 Whereas Niger has recently been a net importer of grain, current prospects are that the country will soon revert to being about self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs (para 1.04). The project area is already a small net - 35 - Table 5.2 PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE Without Total Project 1/ Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Increment % Change -----------------------------------(!000 tons)------------------------------------------------ Volume Rainfed Farming 2/ Millet 178.0 178.1 178.5 180.7 185.4 192.3 195.8 17.8 +10 Sorghum 48.4 47.5 45.5 43.8 42.7 43.4 4,.6 (J4.8) -10 Maize - 1.7 6.4 12.5 18.6 21.1 22.2 22.2 n.m. 3/ Subtotal: cereals 226.4 227.3 230.4 237.0 246.7 256.8 261.6 35.2 +16 Cowpeas 35.5 36.2 38.8 43.8 50.5 54.2 56.3 20.8 -59 Groundnuts 34.1 34.2 34.8 36.4 39.0 41.0 42.0 7.9 -23 Subtotal: legumes 69.6 70.4 73.6 80.2 89.5 95.2 98.3 28.7 .41 Cowpea hay 3.5 4.5 8.3 15.1 23.9 27.6 29.7 26.2 n.m. 3/ Groundnut hay 26.6 26.9 27.7 29.4 31.8 33.8 34.5 7.9 +30 Subtotal: hay 30.1 31.4 36.0 44.5 55.7 61.4 64.2 34.1 '113 Old oxen 4/ - - - - - 0.1 0.3 0.3 n.m. / Livestock Development 51 cattle 6/ e8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.0 0.7 +9 Fattened steers Z/ 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.9 1.5 +111 Bottomland Development Dry-season crops 2/ 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 0.9 +8 (-------------------------------------------(CFAF Billion)------------------------------------ % of Total Increment Value 9/ RainTed Farming Millet 8,900 8,905 8,925 9,035 9,270 9,615 9,790 890 24 Sorghum 2,178 2,138 2,048 1,971 1,922 1,953 1,962 (216) (6) Maize - 68 256 500 744 844 888 888 24 Subtotal: cereals 11,078 11,111 11,229 11,506 11,936 12,412 12,640 1,562 42 Cowpeas 1,598 1,629 1,746 1,971 2,273 2,439 2,534 936 25 Groundnuts 1,705 1,710 1,740 1,820 1,950 2,050 2,100 395 10 Subtotal: legumes 3,303 3,339 3,486 3,791 4,223 4,489 4,634 1,331 35 Cowpea hay 35 45 83 151 239 276 297 262 7 Groundnut hay 266 269 277 294 318 338 345 79 2 Subtotal: hay 301 314 360 445 557 614 642 341 9 Total 14,682 14,764 15,075 15,742 16,716 17,515 17,916 Incremental - 82 393 1,060 2,034 2,833 3,234 3,234 86 Livestock Development LO/ Cattle 1,485 1,519 1,553 1,586 1,620 1,620 1,620 135 4 Fattened steers 272 333 393 452 512 573 573 301 8 Total 5/ 1,757 1,852 1,946 2,038 2,132 2,193 2,913 Increment - 95 189 281 375 436 436 436 12 Bottomland Development 10/ Total 1,200 1,209 1,227 1,250 1,274 1,284 1,289 Increment - 9 27 50 74 84 89 89 2 Total Grana Total 17,639 17,825 18,248 19,030 20,122 20,992 21,398 Increm-*nt - 186 609 1,391 2,483 3,353 3,759 3,759 100 1/ Aggregated from farm models, on Year 3 population base. Using 1977 population, such aggregation yields small differences from provincial production estimates at Table 2.1. 2/ Details at Annex 2, Table 4 and 7. 3/ Not meaningful. I/ Outputs occur four years after acquisition. 5/ Sheep and goats for slaughter and all milk not shown since there is no incremental production. / Liveweight: offtake increases from 11% to 12% by Year 5 with no increase in slaughter weight (250 kg). 7/ Sale at 378 kg/head following 100 kg/head liveweight gain; 3,600 head/year fattened without project. Attainment of with-project yield as per rainfed crops: 60% in first adoption year, 80% in second year, 100% in third. 9/ At 1978 market prices (in CFA.F/kg): millet 50; sorghum 45; maize 40; cowpeas 45; groundnuts 50; cownea hay 10, groundnut hay 10; cattle 180; fattened steers 200; bottomland crops 100. 10.'Calculated on basis of unrounded volumes rather than rounded volumes shown above. - 36 - exporter of grains and legumes and, at full development in 1986, per capita production would have increased by 20% for grains and by 40% for legumes. By contrast neighboring Nigeria is increasingly a net food importer, and a number of studies estimate that the national food deficit will continue to widen. Disposal of project crop production at remunerative prices, in Nigeria if not in Niger, should therefore present little difficulty. Groundnuts would, more- over, be put onto the world market as soon as any regional surplus emerges. Almost all the increased cattle production, about 1,000 tons of meat per year by 1985, would be exported on the hoof to Nigeria where imports are presently about 40,000 tons and satisfy 25% of domestic consumption. B. Marketing 6.02 Although the parastatal crop marketing agencies together with a handful of licensed traders are the sole authorized buyers from cooperatives, private buyers with well-established networks are also operative throughout the project area (para. 2.09). This competitive commercial structure is thought to function reasonably efficiently and is likely to continue to do so, particularly since Government recognizes the failure of its attempt, in the early 1970s, to supplant rather than compete with the private sector. While cattle marketing is handled exclusively by private traders, cattle exports are regulated by a licensing system designed to facilitate reconstitution of the national herd; in practice, although it is not entirely effective, this system impedes movement of fattened animals as well as breeding stock. An assurance was therefore obtained at negotiations that there would be no restrictions on the marketing of fattened animals. C. Prices 6.03 For the 1978/79 harvest, there are only small differences between official prices paid by the parastatal marketing agencies, market prices observed in the project area, and economic prices as calculated in Working Paper 5, Table 1 for overseas-traded outputs, and Table 2 for outputs traded with Northern Nigeria. In calculating project viability, the economic prices for sorghum and maize are import parity prices and for groundnuts export parity based on IBRD forecasts of 1985 world prices. Economic prices for millet and cowpeas in 1985 are based on current prices in Northern Nigeria, converted at the current unofficial exchange rate of CFAF 200: N 1.00, augmented by the same proportionate real price change between 1979 and 1985 as in the IBRD forecasts for sorghum (for millet) and groundnuts (for cowpeas). Financial prices for farm budgets are based on observed 1978/79 market prices and do not take account of projected real price increases of main outputs. Liveweight cattle prices at markets in Dosso are currently very high, averag- ing CFAF 180 (US$0.80) per kilo and exceeding CFAF 200 (US$0.90) per kilo for fattened steers; but since it is unlikely that consumer preference for fresh - 37 - meat in Nigeria would decline and frozen meat imports would increase several- fold, liveweight prices in Niger would not fall from their present, apparently high levels because of competition from the world market. For purposes of valuing project-related output of cattle, it is assumed that real border prices ex-Niger will remain constant. D. Financial Implications for Farmers 6.04 The financial impact of recommended practices in rainfed farming is detailed in Annex 2, Tables 8-10 and summarized at Table 6.1 where returns are shown per unit of labor and per unit of land using both subsidized and unsub- sidized prices for inputs. At subsidized prices, farmers who adopt improved manual cultivation practices could expect to increase net returns at full productivity, in the third year after initial adoption, by 50%; adopters of animal traction practices could expect their net returns to increase by 100%. At unsubsidized prices, such returns would increase by about 30% and 60% respectively. Achievement of these increased net returns requires, however, an increase in labor input, by 15% for improved manual cultivation practices and by 30%, 15% or zero for animal traction practices in the south, center and north respectively. More indicative, then, of the potential of the recommended practices is the increase of 30% in net return per man-day with improved manual cultivation and between 60% and 100% with animal traction. The farm budgets also reveal a clear case for some subsidy on inputs since the net return at unsubsidized prices in the first year of adoption increases by scarcely 10% with improved manual cultivation, and with animal traction, actually falls; at prices as currently subsidized, however, such returns would increase by 25% and by 24-48% respectively. The farm budgets do not take account of the revenue that would arise from sale of old oxen after fattening, nor of the 30% net return over six months that can be expected from steer fattening, nor dry-season crop production. Average farm family income is presently CFAF 185,000 (US$840) of which CFAF 150,000 (US$680) is from crops; of this amount CFAF 133,000 (US$600) are obtained from crops to be improved under the project. With the project the latter would increase to CFAF 196,000 (US$890) for adopters of improved manual cultivation practices or to CFAF 279,000 (US$1,270) for adopters of animal traction practices; the weighted average income from project crops per farm family, including the non-adopters, would be CFAF 157,000 (US$710). Thus, total average farm incomes with the project would rise from CFAF 185,000 (US$840) to CFAF 209,000 (US$950). E. Financial Implications for Government 6.05 There would be little increase in directly-generated revenue to Government since, although cesses are levied on cowpeas and, in normal times, groundnuts, Government price fixing has to take account of competition from private traders; the scope for levying cesses is quite limited. Evidence from ongoing agricultural development projects in northern Nigeria suggests, by contrast, that considerable secondary economic activity develops in the - 38 - Table 6.1 FARM INCOMES Subsidized Prices Unsubsidized Prices Year 1 1/ Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 -----------------------(CFA.FIOO/farm family) ------------------------------ North 2/ Unimproved manual Net Return 135 135 per ha. 15 15 per day (CFAF) 285 no change 285 no change Net Cash Income 42 42 per day (CFAFF 89 89 Improved manual Net Return 171 190 209 148 167 186 per ha 19 21 23 16 19 21 per day (CFAF) 313 348 383 271 306 346 Net Cash Income 72 91 110 49 68 87 per day (CFAF) 132 167 202 90 125 160 Animal traction Net Return 187 231 268 123 174 211 per ba 19 23 27 12 17 21 per day (CFAF) 396 489 568 260 369 458 Net Cash Income 88 132 169 31 75 112 per day (CFAF) 186 280 358 66 159 237 Center 3/ Unimroved manual Net Return 117 117 per ha 20 20 per day (CFAF) 329 no change 329 no change Net Cash Income 36 36 per day (CFAF) 101 101 Improved manual Net Return 141 156 171 120 135 150 per ha 24 26 29 20 23 25 per day (CFAF) 347 384 421 296 333 377 Net Cash Income 51 _ 66 81 30 45. 60 per day (CFA) 126 163 200 74 111 148 Animal traction Net Return 174 222 264 104 159 201 per ha 22 28 33 13 20 25 per day (CPAF) 433 552 657 259 396 515 Net Cash Income 84 132 174 14 69 1l per day (CFAF) 209 328 433 35 172 27; south 4/ Unimproved manual Net Return 165 165 -er ha 28 28 per day (CFAF) 460 no change 460 no change Net Cash Income 80 80 per day (CFAF) 227 227 Inroved manual Net Return 199 218 236 176 195 213 :er ha 33 36 39 29 33 36 per day (CFAr) 489 536 580 432 479 5'l Net Cash ncome 102 121 129 79 98 116 per day (CFAF) 251 297 317 194. 241 285 Animal traction Net Return 204 273 326 116 -95 248 zer ha 26 34 41 15 24 per aay (CFAF) 442 591 727 251 422 570, Net Cash Income 97 176 22 :9 2.51 :er 4ay (C:AF 210 381 496 '1 2i2 .7 'ears are counted from the f-rst year off acotioln. 7 Annex 2. 'acle Annex 2. Taole . Annex 2, Tabie 1C. - 39 - non-agricultural sectors, and that there is a marked increase in benefi- ciaries' spending on consumer goods subject to indirect taxation. This effect cannot yet be quantified with much accuracy but an estimate is included in the Government cash flow at Annex 2, Table 15. That cash flow is negative - a typical finding for such projects - and is in line with Niger's policy of expanding investment in, as well as transferring income to, the rural sector. The average annual deficit over the five-year project period would be CFAF 580 million (US$2.6 million) in current prices, of which Government's contribu- tion to project costs would be only CFAF 330 million (US$1.5 million). Thereafter the cash flow fluctuates and is positive in some years, depending on inflows from medium-term loan repayments and outflows for new loans to replace non-annual inputs; the average annual deficit in Years 11-20 would be CFAF 274 million (US$1.2 million) in 1984 prices. These levels of net expenditures are reasonable in the light of the resources, primarily from uranium, expected to be available to Government. VII. BENEFITS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A. Project Benefits 7.01 By introducing improved techniques and making necessary inputs readily available, the project would increase production of cereals, cowpeas, groundnuts, livestock and bottomland crops. Training, extension, input supply and credit services would be made accessible to 80% of the 100,000 farm families in the project area, of whom it is estimated that 25,000 would adopt the recommended practices and thereby derive the income benefits des- cribed at para. 6.04. In national terms, project incremental production valued at 1985 border prices in 1979 terms would be worth US$21 million (up from US$95 million) per year at full development, which would be reached in 1986; of this amount, cereals would constitute 45%, legumes and hay 43%, livestock 10% and bottomland crops 2%. 7.02 Production increase would be achieved not only by applying an annual average of 17,000 tons of fertilizer at full development but also by promoting through the Training and Visit system improved cultivation methods. Since, on the other hand, the mineral deficiencies that are already showing up (para. 2.02) can be expected to become more acute with more intensive land use, applied research would pay particular attention to such problems. 7.03 Although employment creation is not a primary objective of the project, since labor supply at planting and weeding is already short, it would nonetheless improve the intensity of employment by smoothing cycles in farm operations. Despite the investments to be made in steer fattening and bottom- land development, the project would not make any substantive change in dry- season work opportunities; seasonal migration to the coast can therefore be - 40 - expected to continue at much the same rate as now although not for quite the same duration. At full development, annual incremental on-farm employment would be equivalent to only about 5,400 labor-years (up from 150,000 years), much of it in the form of more intensive use of existing workers. B. Economic Analysis 7.04 The following major assumptions are used: (a) without project: no decrease in production due to declining fertility, it being assumed that falling yields would be offset by the opening up of new land on the plateau; (b) project life: 20 years with no residual values; (c) standard conversion factor to express local costs in border prices: 0.92; (d) opportunity cost for all incremental farm labor: the weighted average net return in unimproved farming of CFAF 342 (US$1.56) per labor day; (e) no post-project phasing out of training, extension, input delivery, or overhead costs; and (f) overhead costs allocated to rainfed farming, livestock development and bottomland development pro-rata with component-specific costs. Based on these assump- tions, economic costs and benefits are detailed in Working Paper 5, summarized in Table 6.1, and economic rates of return are as follows: rainfed farming (89% of project costs): 23%; livestock development (9% of project costs); 40%: bottomland development (2% of project costs): 41%; total project: 25%. 7.05 Risks and Sensitivity Analysis. The main risk is that the estimated rate of adoption of recommended practices may not be attained due to poor implementation of the Training and Visit system, and/or to poor organization of input delivery, and/or to inadequate financing of nonincremental inputs, and/or to possible farmer reluctance to increase their financial risks by shifting from a traditionally extensive system of cultivation to more intensive agriculture. However, agricultural development in Dosso Province is at a preliminary stage (para. 5.01) and technical risks are minimal since the recommended practices are simple and have been substantially tested, and adopted, in the existing Pilot Project (para. 2.19) by 16,000 farmers on as many hectares. To minimize remaining risks, experienced practitioners would be employed to manage the Training and Visit system, input delivery would be managed by the project's own Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section through a special account, and Government's contribution to nonincremental input financing would be payable in advance into the special account. These measures apart, because inputs constitute about half of project costs, a lower-than-anticipated adoption rate would entail significant cost savings. Accordingly, analysis of crossover values (Table 7.1) shows that the adoption rate could fall as much as one-third, from 146,000 ha to 96,000 ha, before the economic rate of return to rainfed farming would fall to 10%. This finding can be used to gauge the effects of other possible shortcomings; for urea on cereals, for instance, which would not be applied unless fields were properly weeded, the crossover value is 45% of the appraisal value - the cereal area could fall from 88,000 ha to 40,000 ha or, in terms of urea, the volume applied could fall from 6,700 tons to 3,000 tons. Other sensitivity tests show that the project is quite insensitive to other possible adverse factors; a catastrophic drought every five years, simulated by assuming zero incre- mental benefits, would still yield an economic rate of return of about 9%. - 41 - Table 7.1 EC)NOMIC (X)STS. BENEFITS AND RATES OF RETURN Tear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Tear 7 Years 11-20 RaiEedPFarming Itncremental Costar Training 350.7 60.9 56.5 62.7 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 Extension u8.8 156.5 187.6 221.1 143.7 143.7 141.7 14.7 Inputs 105.4 436.1 1,212.3 1,724.2 2,037.5 1.452.3 1,850.8 1,811.8 Farm Labor - 45.4 173.9 331,7 480.3 480.3 480.3 480. Subtotal 574.9 698.9 1.630.3 2,339.7 2,718.0 2.132.8 2.531.3 2,492.3 SCF revaluation 1/ (15.2) (20.7) (49.6) (73.0) (91.3) (76.8) (91.1) (89.7) Share of overheads ?/ 145.1 129.7 127.6 158.; 99.3 63.9 74.6 67.5 Total 704.8 807.9 1,708.3 2,425.0 2,726.0 2,119.9 2,514.8 2,470.1 Incremental Benefits - 110.0 513.9 1,347.3 2,535.5 3,513.4 4,025.8 4,014.0 Net Incremental Benefits (704.8) (697-) (1,194.4) (1,077.?) (i0) 1 1211.c Dtea veloamen 51,.. ;66.: To ta Incremental Costs 869.9 984.0 1,916.9 2,709.8 3,050.9 2,436.7 2.839.9 2,786., Incremental Benefits - 217.5 737.8 1,692.6 3,004.2 4,054.8 4,572.2 4,560.4 Not Incremental Benefits (8.j) (76 ) (1)179.1 (1,017.2) (46.7) 1,618.1 1,732.x 1,773.? Economic Rates of Return Base Case Benefits down 10% Benefite down 20% Coate up 10% Benefits Lagged 1 Year Rainfed Farming 23.0 17.0 9.6 17.4 14.1 Livestock Development 39.9 31.0 21.3 31.8 22.4 Bottomland Development 40.8 31.6 22.0 32.5 22.8 Total 24.7 18.2 10.7 18.8 15.0 Crossover Values 4/ for Rainfed Farming Unit Appraisal Value Crossover Value % Change Output Prices J/: Millet CFAF/kg 56 11 - 81 Sorghum/Maize ClAF/kg 57 14 - 75 Millet and Sorghum/Maize CFAF/kg 58, 57 35, 35 . - 39 Cowpeaa CFAF/kg 58 21 - 64 Groundnute CFAF/kg 50 None 6/ Hay CFAF/kg 10 None / Cowpeas, Groundnuts and Hay CFAF/kg 58, 50, 10 35, 31, 6 - 39 Input Prices Rock Phosphate CFAF/kg 32 172 *44 TSP CFAF/kg 70 194 + 177 Urea CFAF/kg 80 186 + 133 All Fertilizer CFAF/kg 32, 70, 80 53, 116, 132 * 65 Farmer Adoption Rate '000 ha 146 96 - '4 Opportunity Coat of Labor CFAF/day 342 Z/ 845 + 147 Standard Conversion Factor IndexC 0.92 1.46 + 59 Effects of Droughts on Economic Rates of Return for Rainfed Farming First Drought in Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Severe drought 8/ every 5 years 16.7 16.9 17.2 16.8 -16.3 Catastrophic drought 9/ every 10 years 19.5 19.6 18.6 16.9 15.0 10/ Catastrophic drought every 5 yeara 9.8 9.9 10.2 9.5 8.2 1, Domestic costs revalued at 0.92. 2 Costs, revalued at SCF, of rural engineering, applied research and project management allocated ura-rata with com-onent-spec.fic costs. Including revaluation at SCF, and overheads as at 2* IZ Value at which net cresent value is zero at a discount rate of 10%. 5, % changes also measure permisaible changes in incremental yields. Net present value always positive. 7' Weighted average of zone-specific opportunity costs (CFAF/day): Ncrth 285, Center 329, South "60. 'T Incremental benefits halvea. 9 Incremental benefits zero; does not takeaccount of a severe drought every fifth intervening year. T0/ Remainder of sequence, through Year 10: 14.2, 14.4, 15.6, 16.8, 17.9. - 42 - VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 8.01 During negotiations, assurances were obtained from Government that: (i) in addition to its participation in financing project costs, Government would finance (a) existing agricultural staff in the project area, including those presently financed under the seed farm project, the existing Pilot Project, and livestock fattening projects at the termination of such projects, and all associated operating costs (about US$1 million per year), and (b) subsidies on nonincremental inputs which would increase from US$150,000 in 1979 to US$3.6 million in 1984 (para 3.15); (ii) the Farm Supplies Fund with CNCA would be augmented by Government with an additional line of credit of CFAF 254 million (US$1.2 million) before September 30, 1981 (para 3.16); (iii) subsidies on inputs distributed for the ongoing agricultural season would be paid by Government into the Farm Supplies Fund with CNCA before September 30 of each year, the first such year being 1980 (para. 3.16); (iv) all receipts from farmers' cash purchases, down payments on items acquired on medium-term credit and all receipts from seasonal and medium-term loan repayments would be kept in the Farm Supplies Fund with CNCA beginning on September 30, 1980 (para 3.16); (v) any shortfall in seasonal and medium-term loan repayments and price increases on non-incremental inputs and implements would be paid by Government into the Farm Supplies Fund with CNCA by September 30 of each year, beginning in 1980 (para 3.16); (vi) the Special Project Account would be replenished by Govern- ment at the beginning of each fiscal year on the basis of cash forecasts made by project management, by an amount sufficient to cover Government's contribution to the financing of the project for that year (para 3.16); (vii) the line of Credit with the National Treasury would be re-established by Government at the beginning of each fiscal year on the basis of investment budget forecasts made by project management (para 3.16); - 43 - (viii) (a) the Project Manager would introduce (i) by June 30, 1980 a project reporting system including quarterly progress reports and (ii) by December 31, 1980, a project monitoring system, both systems to be proposed by project management and reviewed by IDA; and (b) the Project Manager would prepare and forward by July 31 of each year his annual work program and budget simultaneously to Government and IDA for approval (para 4.02); (ix) the qualifications and experience of all key personnel mentioned at para. 4.06 as well as their responsibilities (Annex 1) and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA, and the terms and conditions of employment of inter- nationally-recruited staff and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA (para 4.08); 8.02 A condition of Board presentation was that the Project Manager had been appointed (para. 4.06). 8.03 Conditions of effectiveness would be that: (i) conditions precedent to initial disbursement of the FAC grant and the CCCE loan had been fulfilled (para 3.15); (ii) Government had deposited an initial amount of CFAF 200 million (US$0.9 million) into the Special Project Account with BDRN, had granted a CFAF 320 million (US$1.5 million) line of credit with CNCA for the Farm Supplies Fund, and had granted a CFAF 400 million (US$1.8 million) line of credit with the National Treasury (para 3.16); (iii) the Chief of the Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section, and the Training and Extension Specialist had been appointed (para. 4.06). 8.04 With the indicated assurances and conditions, the proposed project is suitable for a credit on standard terms of US$20 million equivalent to the Government of Niger. - 44 - ANNEX 1 Page 1 NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel Project Manager 1. Under the Minister of Rural Development and the Provincial Governor, the Project Manager would be responsible for project execution and its tech- nical, financial and economic success. For all matters related to project execution the Provincial Officers for agriculture, livestock, input supply (UNCC), rural engineering and applied research and, through them, project- financed staff would report to the Project Manager. To support him in his task two sections would be attached to his office: (i) the Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section; and (ii) the Technical Section. 2. The Project Manager would be appointed for periods of at least three years and he would be specifically responsible for: (a) planning, managing and supervising all project activities; (b) preparing annual work programs and budgets; (c) establishing a reporting system and preparing quarterly and annual progress reports; (d) coordinating project activities with other actions undertaken in Dosso Province through his participation as full member in the Provincial Technical Committee; (e) ensuring adherence to all covenants of the Credit Agreement; (f) preparing a follow-up project. 3. The qualifications and experience of the Project Manager would be: (a) a postgraduate degree (or its equivalent) in agriculture, veterinary science, business or government administration; (b) at least 3 years field experience in a senior position, preferably in rural development; (c) a proven ability to lead and coordinate the activities of a team and/or different agencies; - 45 - ANNEX 1 Page 2 (d) general management skills should preferably include familiarity with input delivery systems and credit in the rural sector. Chief, Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section 1. Under the direction of the Project Manager he would be responsible for: (a) setting up detailed accounts and a consolidated project account and control of bookkeeping; (b) preparing project financial statements, including detailed annual budgets and quarterly cash flow projections; (c) designing and implementing sound internal and management controls particularly with regard to equipment maintenance, stocks and receipts, and vehicle operating costs; (d) preparing withdrawal applications from the IDA credit account and maintaining disbursement records for which he would liaise with the IDA Agricultural Project Coordinator in the Ministry of Rural Development; (e) processing of tender documents and supervision of all procure- ment procedures; (f) assisting the UNCC and CNCA Provincial Representatives in establishing and maintaining proper procedures, including accounting practices for distribution and storage of farm inputs, and the administration and recovery of farmer credits; (g) follow-up of auditor's recommendations; and (h) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section Chief would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) or membership in a recognized professional body evidencing formal knowledge of modern accounting theory and practice in accordance with generally accepted international standards; (b) at least five years professional experience, preferably in a country using the OCAM or French accounting plans and some of which in a commercial enterprise; - 46 - ANNEX 1 Page 3 (c) actual experience with procurement (preferably including agri- cultural inputs), with input distribution and rural credit; and (d) a good knowledge of the French language. Chief, Technical Section 1. Under the direction of the Project Manager he would be responsible for: (a) establishing sampling procedures for farm monitoring and implementing a system of keeping farm records; (b) instituting studies of the main farming systems and carrying out baseline farm management studies; (c) designing and establishing baseline data for current planning and future evaluation (the survey would cover the following main aspects: (i) human resources; (ii) cropping and livestock patterns and activities; (iii) mechanization; (iv) input use; (v) markets and marketing; and (vi) farm incomes); (d) assisting with defining the overall development strategy in the region; (e) helping research and extension staff to identify new crop and livestock enterprises; (f) liaising and coordinating the work of consultants on rural sociology and consultants involved in preparation of a possible follow-up project; (g) preparing quarterly and annual project progress reports; (h) training and supervising the enumerators; and (i) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Chief of the Technical Section would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) in agricultural economics or a related discipline; (b) at least five years of professional experience in project evaluation techniques, including sampling techniques, data collection with rural people and statistical analysis; - 47 - ANNEX 1 Page 4 (c) experience with data processing and analysis is essential; (d) willingness to work in the field, away from Dosso town, for an average of 10 days a month; and (e) a good knowledge of the French language. Training Center Administrator 1. Under the direction of the Provincial Agricultural Officer he would be responsible for: (a) all matters related to the daily operation of the training center, the farm, the dormitories and the kitchen; (b) preparing annual operating budgets in close collaboration with the Subject Matter Specialist on Training and Extension, the Chief of the Commercial Administrative and Financial Section, and the Farm Manager; (c) initiating procurement of all supplies in close collaboration with the Chief of the Commercial Administrative and Financial Section, including: farm inputs, office supplies, teaching supplies and food; (d) school administration, including the accounting, stock keeping and the operation and maintenance of buildings and vehicles; (e) liaising with teaching staff, who would otherwise be responsi- ble to the Subject Matter Specialist on Training and Extension, on all matters related to the use of the center's facilities; (f) maintaining relations with other organizations and government services that would wish to make use of the center's facilities. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Training Center Administrator would be: (a) graduate of an Agricultural Training Institute, level at appointment Bl; (b) at least three years professional experience preferably in a position within the Ministry of Rural Development; (c) proven management skills and ability to lead young people; and (d) a good knowledge of the French language. - 48 - ANNEX 1 Page 5 Subject Matter Specialist in Training and Extension 1. Under the direction of the Provincial Agricultural Officer he would be responsible for: (a) establishing training programs for all extension staff; (b) teaching the training and visit system of extension; (c) preparing extension programs and supervising their execution; (d) planning and supervising the introduction of the training and visit system; (e) liaising and coordinating with the subject matter specialist in agriculture and the Applied Research Officer; (f) coordinating with consultants on agricultural extension and training; (g) assisting the Training Center Administrator and the Farm Manager and coordinating with them; (h) liaising with the Kolo Agricultural Training Institute; (i) assisting in the recruitment of trainees; and (j) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Subject Matter Specialist in Training and Extension would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) in agriculture or related discipline; (b) at least five years professional and practical experience with the training and visit system of agricultural extension, part of which preferably in West Africa; (c) experience with the introduction of agricultural extension with illiterate small farmers; (d) willingness to work in the field, away from Dosso town, for an average of 10 days a months and (e) a good knowledge of the French language. - 49 - ANNEX 1 Page 6 Subject Matter Specialist in Agriculture 1. Under the direction of the Provincial Agricultural Officer he would be responsible for: (a) planning the annual agricultural work program; (b) introducing improved farming techniques, including: new crops (maize), improved varieties, seed selection, fertilizers, insecticides, animal traction, land preparation, planting, weeding, thinning, harvesting, and small-scale irrigation; (c) periodically reviewing and revising all technical recommenda- tions for project activities; (d) assisting the Training and Extension specialist in establishing extension programs and the training of extension staff; (e) liaising and coordinating with the Chief of the Technical Section; (f) assisting the Rural Engineering Officer in the preparation and execution of pilot irrigation in bottomlands; (g) specifying annual agricultural input requirements in liaison with the UNCC Provincial Representative; (h) liaising with the Applied Research Officer on the applied research program and the introduction of research results to farmers; and (i) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Subject Matter Specialist in Agriculture would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) in agriculture; (b) at least five years professional and practical experience with the introduction of improved farming techniques with small- holders under rainfed conditions; (c) preferably some experience with applied research on farming systems and farm management; - 50 - ANNEX 1 Page 7 Applied Research Officer 1. Under the direction of the Project Manager and in close collabora- tion with INRAN, the Applied Research Officer would be responsible for: (a) programming, budgeting, and executing all applied research programs within the framework of the project, including: simple comparative variety trails ("essaies de comportement"), fertilizer trials on farmers fields, and watershed management trials (soil and water conservation); (b) reviewing technical recommendations for project activities; (c) liaising and coordinating with the Subject Matter Specialists; (d) coordinating with consultants in fertilizer and soil conserva- tion research; (e) preparing quarterly and annual progress reports for inclusion in the project's reporting system; (f) assisting in the training of extension staff; and (g) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Applied Research Officer would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) in agriculture or related discipline; (b) at least five years professional experience in applied research under rainfed conditions, preferably experience with research being carried out on farmers fields; (c) willingness to work in the field, away from Dosso town, for an average of 10 days a month; and (d) a good knowledge of the French language. Rural Engineering Officer 1. Under the direction of the Provincial Rural Engineering Officer, the Rural Engineering Officer would be responsible for: - 51 - ANNEX i Page 8 (a) designing all buildings, with the sole exception of the Training Center, to be constructed under the project; (b) preparing tender documents for all civil works, technically evaluating bids and serving as executive secretary of the tender board; (c) maintaining project buildings; (d) designing and executing the bottomland irrigation component in close collaboration with the Provincial Agricultural Officer and the Subject Matter Specialists; (e) coordinating with the Chief of the Commercial, Administrative and Financial Section on all matters related with the procure- ment of civil works; (f) supervising the execution of civil works; (g) preparing proposals for small-scale irrigation projects to be financed under a possible follow-up project; (h) participating as full member in the Provincial Technical Committee; and (i) training in technical and managerial matters all staff under his orders. 2. The qualifications and experience of the Rural Engineering Officer would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) in rural engineering; (b) at least five years professional experience in preferably both the supervision of building construction, and the design and execution of small-scale irrigation perimeters with emphasis on the use of apropriate technology; (c) willingness to work in the field, away from Dosso town, for an average of 10 days a month; and (d) a good knowledge of the French language. - 52 - NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT TABLES NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Physical Inputs and Yields Seed Fongicide Rock TSP Urea Insecticide Yield (seeds) Phosphate 1/ . Main Product By-Product (kg/ha) (packets/ha) --------------(kg/ha)--- ----------------------------------------- Millet North: Unimproved 10 - - - - - 300 - Improved 15 1 200 - 50 - 600 - Center: Unimproved 10 - - - - - 400 - Improved 15 1 200 - 75 - 800 - Millet/Cowpeas 2/ North: Unimproved 10/10 - - - - 250/100 - UL Center: Unimproved 10/10 - - - - - 300/150 - Cowpeas North: Improved 25 2 -. 50 - 2.5 700 700 Center: Improved 25 2 - 100 - 2.5 800 800 Croundnuts Center: Unimproved 100 - - - - - 400 300 Improved 100 2 - 100 - - 700 600 South: Unimproved 100 - - - - - 500 400 Improved 100 2 - 150 - - 900 800 Sorghum South: Unimproved 10 - - - - - 700 - Improved 15 1 - 100 - 1,000 Maize 3/ South: Improved 20 1 200 - 100 - 1,500 - 1/ 200 kg/ha on incremental cereal area, application once avery four years. For farm budget purposes 50 kg/ha/)tear allocated to all crops. 2/ All unimproved cowpeas inter-cropped with millet; all improved cowpeas, as in the existing Productivity Project, pure stan& 31 Unimproved maize is negligible: yield 750 kg/ha. - 54 - NIGER ANN 2 Table 2 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Return per Hectare and Labor Use Gross Input Costs 2/ Net Return Labor Return Subsidized Unsubsidized Subsidized , Unsubsidized --------------------------(CTAF *000/ha)------------------------------------- (days) Millet North: Unimproved 15.0 0.5 0.5 14.5 14.5 42 Improved 30.0 3.9 6.7 26.1 23.3 61/43 y Center: Unimproved 20.0 0.5 0.5 19.5 19.5 42 Improved 40.0 4.8 8.6 35.2 31.4 61,43 Millet/Cowpean North: Unimproved 17.0 0.9 0.9 16.1 16.1 66 Center: Unimproved 21.8 0.9 0.9 20.9 20.9 66 Cowp*as North: Improved 38.5 5.5 10.0 33.0 28.5 72/57 Center: Improved 44.0 7.0 13.3 37.0 30.7 72/57 Groundnut. Center: Unimproved 23.0 5.0 5.0 18.0 18.0 74 Improved 41.0 10.9 15.2 30.1 25.8 80/58 South: Unimproved 29.0 5.0 5.0 24.0 24.0 74 Improved 53.0 12.5 18.6 40.5 34.4 8o/58 Sorghum South: Unimproved 31.5 0.5 0.5 31.0 31.0 51 Improved 45.0 5.8 10.6 39.2 34.4 65/48 Maize South: Improved 60.0 6.1 10.9 53.9 49.1 80/60 1/ Output prices in CFAF/kg: millet 50; cowpean 45; cowpea hay 10;groundnuts 50; groundnut hay 10; sorghum 45; sae 40; transport costa to local market not deducted. 2/ Input prices in CTAF/kg: all unimproved seed at output prices; improved seed: millet 60, cowpeas 47, groundnut 62.5, sorghum 60, asmiza 60; other items at subsidized/unsubadized prices: fongicide 15/35 per 40 gram pack; rock phosphate 20/351 TSP 30/65; urea 35/75; insecticide 600/1400; transport costs from farm service center to farm CrAF 250 per 100 kg of improved inputs (12 km average distance): all prices exclude astribution costs between administrative district centers and farm service centers; such items are included in Input Supply costs. , 61 days for improved manual cultivation, 43 days for animal traction. - 55 - MIGJU kNNUE 2 DOSS AGRICULTRAL DEVLPMfn PROJECT Return. per Farm and per Labor-Ey at Full Development Grose Return 1/ Input Coete Net Return Labor Net R.turn or day Bag* Adjusted Sub.idized Unsub.idized Subaidized Unsub.idized Suosidized Unsub-idized ----------------------------(cFAU 000---------------------------- (daya) -------kcFAFd dy)----- Korth Unimproved 2/ 143 141 6 6 135 135 474 285 285 Improved maal / Impro,ed are. (67%) 197 193 27 47 166 146 388 Unimproved area (33%) 47 45 2 2 43 43 158 Total are. 244 238 29 49 209 189 546 383 346 Inproved animal traction 4/ Inproved area (100%) 296 299 40 70 259 229 429 Additional area 1/ 30 31 4 7 27 24 43 Total area 326 330 44 77 286 253 Animal traction costa 6/ - - 18 37 268 216 472 568 458 Center Uni.proved 2/ 128 126 9 9 117 117 356 329 329 Inproved manual 8/ Improved are. (67%) 165 159 28 46 131 113 274 U.iproved are. (33%) 44 42 2 2 40 40 132 Total are. 209 201 30 48 171 153 406 421 377 Improved animal traction 2/ Improved are (100%) 248 251 41 69 210 182 302 Additi.onal area 10/ 84 85 12 22 73 63 100 Total area 332 336 53 91 283 245 An-al traction coet. 11/ - - 19 264 207 402 657 515 South Unimproved 12/ 184 177 12 12 165 165 352 460 460 Improved manual 13/ I.oroed areaT67%) 218 209 31 51 178 158 305 .ni.proved are. (33%) 63 59 1 1 58 58 108 Total are. 281 268 32 52 236 216 407 580 5,1 Improved animal traction 14/ Inproved are. (100%) 331 334 49 81 285 253 344 Additonal are. / 113 114 19 29 95 85 118 Total are. 444 448 68 110 380 338 Animal traction costa 16,' - - 44 73 336 265 462 727 574 1/ Base: aggr.gat.d from Annex 2, Table 2; Adju.ted: for unisproved and ixproved manual farm typen, Be.. Gross Return lena transport from fann to tarm eervice center of CFAY 250 per 100 kg for the voluma of produce in excess of 2 tone per fars; for aninal traction farm typea, Bana Gros Return -lus saing realied by an tran.port of all improved inputa f-ro farm service center to farm. 2/ 9 ha of which 5 ha illet and 4 ha eillet/owpeae. 3/ 6 ha improved, 4 ha millet and 2 ha cowpeas; resaining 3 ha continue- to be fared as uninproved, 2 ha millet and 1 ha millet/cowpoam. W/ 9 ha i.proed, 6 ha aillet and 3 ha conpeas. 1 ha millet. / Donkey traction; inplement cost4 in CFAF 000/item in subeidiod/nbcdizd priceo: donkey 15/15; yoke 2/2;khoe, scarificator and cultivator et 8/21; planter 12/43; cart 28/52; total 65/133; four-yar annuity at 9.5% after 10% cas don-paYment 18/37. 7/ 6 h. of which 2 ha millet, 3 ha millet/co-peas, 1 ha groundnuts (alan as a proxy for all other rainfed crop.). 9, 4 ha iwproved, 2 ha eillet, 1 ha copeas and 1 ha groundnute; reM.aiig 2 ha continuen to be famed as uni.proed millet/copeas. / 6 ha improved, 3 ha millet, 1.5 ha cowpeas and 1.5 ha groundnuta. 0' 1 ha .1llet and 1 ha co.peaa. 11/ Donkey traction ae at 4/ bot inloding a groundnut lifter at 2.5/4; total 67.5/137; four-ynar annuity at 9.5% after 10% cash down-payaent 19/38. 1Ž' 6 ha of which 4 ha 4orghu" and 2 ha groundnuts. T3/ 4 ha improved, 1 ha sorghum, 2 ha mai-e and 1 ha groundnuts; remaining 2 ha continuem to be farmed an unimproved sorghua. 17/ 6 ha improved, 1 ha wnrghm, 3 ha maze and 2 ha groundnutö. _Ql 1 ha maie and 1 ha groundnuta. 16/ Ox traction; implement Costa in CFAF '000/item in subeidized/unsbeidized prices: oxen 80/80; yoke 2/2; tool har and chain 4/20; cultivator 3/11; plough 4,14; plant.r 12/43; ridger 2.5/6; lift*r 2.5/6; Cart 45/78: total 155/260 four-yer annuity at 9.5% efter 10% cah don-payuent 44/73. Fesd: 240 forage unita of concentrate per pair, 120 kg cerealz and 170 kg hay i. CFA 7,600 plum trypanocides CFA 1,120, other anti-paranite treataenta CFAF 500 and other druga CFA 1,000; total feed and drug. CFAF 10,000 (no aubsidies). - 56 - ANNEX 2 NIGER. r3 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPHENT PROJECT Unimproved 1/ and Improved 2/ Areas of Rainfed Crops Without Project 3/ Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 --------------------------------(I00ha)---------------------------------- North Unimproved: Millet 186.7 186.? 184.2 175.4 161.4 Millet/cowpes 149.4 149.4 147.1 139.0 126.4 Subtotal 336.1 336.1 331.3 314.4 287.8 Improved 4/: Millet 1.0 1.0 4.5 16.5 35.5 Cowpeas 5.0 5.0 6.6 12.3 21.1 Subtotal 6.0 6.0 11.1 28.8 56.6 Total 342.1 342.1 342.4 343.2 344.4 Center Unimproved: Millet 76.0 73.4 65.7 57.4 51.1 Millet/cowpeas 114.1 111.9 105.4 98.6 93.3 Groundnuts 38.0 36.7 32.8 28.7 25.6 Subtotal 228.1 222.0 203.9 184.7 170.0 Improved J/: Millet 1.0 4.7 14.8 25.8 34.1 Cowpeas - 2.1 7.8 14.0 18.6 Groundnuts 1.0 2.6 7.0 11.9 15.5 Subtotal 2.0 9.4 29.6 51.7 68.2 Total 230.1 231.4 233.4 236.4 238.2 South Unimproved: Sorghum 69.1 67.3 62.7 58.1 54.4 Groundnuts 34.6 33.2 29.7 26.3 23.5 Subtotal 103.7 100.5 92.4 84.4 77.9 Improved 6/: Sorghum - 0.7 2.4 4.1 5.5 Maize - 1.8 6.4 11.0 14.7 Groundnuts 1.0 2.1 5.0 7.9 10.2 Subtotal 1.0 4.6 13.8 23.0 30.4 Total 104.7 105.1 106.2 107.4 108.3 Other Unimproved: Millet 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.2 Grand Total 739.1 740.8 744.3 749.2 753.1 Doso Province Unimproved: Millet 324.9 322.2 312.1 295.0 274.7 Millet/cowpeas 263.5 261.3 252.5 237.6 219.7 Groundnuts 72.6 69.9 62.5 55.0 49.1 Sorghum 69.1 67.3 62.7 58.1 54.4 Subtotal 730.1 720.8 689.8 645.7 598.0 Improved: Millet 2.0 5.7 19.3 42.3 69.6 Cowpeas 5.0 7.1 14.4 26.3 39.7 Groundnuta 2.0 4.7 12.0 19.8 25.7 Sorghum - 0.7 2.4 4.1 5.5 Maize - 1.8 6.4 11.0 14.7 Subtotal 9.0 20.0 54.5 103.5 155-2 % Improved 1.2% 2.7% 7.3% 13.8% 20.6% 1/ The sum of non-contacted farms, contacted but non-adopting farms, and the unimproved area of farms adopting improved cultivation. 2/ Rate of adoption per group of farms contacted: 10% in first contact year, then 30%, then 40%. / Aggregated from farm models at footnotes to Annex 2, Table 3; based on 1982 (PY3) population (being 2%/year on 1977 base); "imoroved" areas are those planned for the ongoing Pilot Project in 1979. 4/ No farmers contacted until PY3; contacts made through new farm service centers becoming operational as follows: PY3: 2; PY4: 3; PY5: 3; Total 8. 5/ New m service centers becoming operational as follows: PY2: 4; PY?: 3; PY4: 2; PY5: 2; Total 11. Z/ New farm service centers becoming operational as follows: PY2: 2; PY3: 1; PY4: 1; PY5: 1; Total 5. - 57 - ANNEX 2 NIGER Table 5 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Improved Areas of Rainfed Crops with Manual and Animal Traction Cultivation Without % in Project 1/ Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 PY 5 ---------------------('000 ha) --------------------------------- North 2/ Manual 6.0 6.0 8.8 18.5 33.8 60 Animal Traction - - 2.3 10.3 22.8 40 Total 6.0 6.0 11.1 28.8 56.6 100 Center 3/ Manual 2.0 5.8 16.0 27.3 35.7 52 Animal Traction - 3.6 13.6 24.4 32.5 48 Total 2.0 9.4 29.6 51.7 68.2 100 South 3/ Manual 1.0 2.8 7.5 12.2 16.0 53 Animal Tracticn - 1.8 6.3 10.8 14.4 47 Total 1.0 4.6 13.8 23.0 30.4 100 Total Improved Area Manual 9.0 14.6 32.3 58.0 85.5 55 Animal Traction - 5.4 22.2 45.5 69.7 45 Total 9.0 20.0 54.5 103.5 155.2 100 1/ All without-project improved areas cultivated manually. 2/ Two-thirds of adopting farmers use manual techniques on 6 improved ha per farm; remainder use animal traction on 10 improved ha. 3/ Two-thirds of adopting farmers use manual techniques on 4 improved ha per farm; remainder use animal traction on 8 improved ha. - 58 - NIGER ANNEX 2 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Inputs for Rainfed Crops 1/ Without Volumes supplied Total Increment Project 73ar 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (for project coate) Improved Seed Millet 2/ tons 22 56 204 345 409 1,014 Cowpeas 3/ tons 125 53 183 298 375 869 Groundnut 4/ tons 200 270 730 780 590 2,270 Sorghum 5/ tons - 11 26 26 21 84 Maize '6 tons 36 128 220 294 294 Agro Chemicals Fongicide 7/ '000 packets 16 32 81 150 221 205 Rock Phosphate 8/ tons - 1,240 3,980 5,860 6,480 17,560 TSP 7/ tons 350 1,035 2,560 4,390 5,995 5,645 Urea 7/ tons 110 653 2,475 4,650 6,822 6,712 Insecticide 7/ '000 liters 13 18 36 66 99 86 Equipment Donkey-traction units 2' No. - 456 1,483 2,167 2,281 6,387 Ox-traction units 9/ No. 500 228 570 570 456 1,824 ULV sprayers 10/ No. - 1,536 1,920 1,920 1,920 7,296 1, Inputs per ha from Annex 2, Table 1; area data from Annex 2, Table 4. 2/ P3 Kolo, renewed every four years; renewal of without project volume excluded. 7, TN 88-63, as at 1/. t/ 55-437, am at 1/: 5/ P3 Kolo, as at 1/. , Hybrid, renewal every year; increment taken into project costs. 7/ Increment taken into project costs. 200 kg/ha on incremental cereal area; application renewed every four years. ff No replacements auring project lize; all incremental. 10/ One sprayer per contact farmer (and- fellow-adopters) - 59 - NIGER ANNEX 2 Table 7 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Outpute of Rainfed Crops 1/ Without Project 2/ Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 ---------------------- ('000 tons) ----------------------- North Millet: Unimproved 93.3 93.3 92.1 87.4 80. 80.0 80.0 Improved C. o.6 1.8 6.6 15.3 19.0 21.3 Total 93.9 93.9 93.9 94.0 95.3 99.0 101.3 Cowpeas: Unimproved 14.9 14.9 14.7 13.9 12.6 12.6 12.6 Improved 3.5 3.5 4.2 6.8 11.5 13.5 14.8 Total 18.4 18.4 18.9 20.7 24.1 26.1 27.4 Cowpea hay: Improved 3.5 3.5 4.2 6.8 11.5 13.5 14.8 Center Millet: Unimproved 64.6 62.9 57.9 52.5 48.5 48.5 48.5 Improved 0.8 2.6 8.0 15.5 22.9 26.1 27.3 Total 65.4 65.5 65.9 68.o 71.4 74.6 75.8 Cowpeas: Unimproved 17.1 16.8 15.8 14.8 14. 14.0 14.0 Improved 1.0 4.1 8.3 12.4 14a 14.9 Total 17.1 17.8 19.9 23.1 26.4 28.1 28.9 Cowpea hay: Improved 1.0 4.1 8.3 12.4 14.1 14.9 Groundnuts: Unimproved 15.2 14.7 13.1 11.5 10.2 10.2 10.2 Improved 0.7 1.4 3.5 6.3 9.2 10.3 io.8 Total 15.9 16. 16.6 17.8 19.4 20.5 21.0 Groundnut hay: Unimproved 11.4 11.0 9.9 8.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 Improved 0.6 1.2 3.0 5.4 7.8 8.9 9.3 Total 12.0 12.2 12.9 14.0 15.5 16.6 17.0 South Sorghum: Unimproved 48.4 47.1 43.9 4o.7 38.1 38. 38.1 Improved 0.4 1.6 3.1 4.6 5.3 5.5 Total 48.4 47.5 45.5 43.8 42.7 43.4 43.6 Maize. Improved 1.7 6.4 12.5 18.6 21.1 22.2 Groundnuts: Umimproved 17.3 16.6 14.9 13.1 11.8 11.8 11.8 Improved 0.9 1.5 3.3 5.5 7.8 8.7 9.2 Total 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.0 Groundnut hay: Unimproved 13.8 13.3 11.9 10.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 Improved 0.8 1.4 2.9 4.9 6.9 7.8 8.1 Total 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.2 17.5 Other Millet: Unimproved 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 Doeso Province Millet 17&0 178.1 178.5 180.7 185.4 192.3 195.8 Sorghum 48.4 47.5 45.5 43.8 42.7 43.4 43.6 Maize 1.7 6.4 12.5 18.6 21.1 22.2 Total Cereals 226.4 227.3 230.4 237.0 246.7 256.8 261.6 Cowpeas 35.5 36.2 38.8 43.8 50.5 54.2 56.3 Groundnuts 34.1 34.2 34.8 36.4 39.0 41.0 42.0 Total Legumes 69.6 70.4 73.6 80.2 89.5 95.2 98.3 Cowpea hay 3.5 4.5 8.3 15.1 23.9 27.6 29.7 Groundnut hay 26.6 26.9 27.7 29.4 31.8 35.8 Total Hay 30.1 31.4 36.0 44.5 55.7 61.4 64.2 I/ Yield p9rformance by adopters of improved methods: first year 60%; then 80%, then 1000. 2.' Aggregated from farm models using 1982 (PY3) population. (Note: aggregation from farm models uring 1977 base population yields some, but small,djifferences from provincial production estimates for 1977) - 60 - NIGER ANNEX 2 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVEfLOPMENT PROJECT Farmers' Returns over Time 1/: North Year 0 Subsidized Prices Unsubsidized Prices Tear 1 fear 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 -------------------------------------------------------(CA '000)---------------- Manual Cultivation Gross Return V 143 204 224 244 204 224 244 of which: cash sales 3/ 44 105 125 145 105 125 145 Costs Transport of inputs to farm 4/ - 2 2 2 2 2 2 Transport of outputs to market 1/ 2 4 5 6 4 5 6 Inputs (principal) 6/ 6 27 27 27 47 47 47 Interest 7/ - - - - 3 3 3 Subtotal 8 33 34 35 56 57 58 Net Return 135 171 190 209 148 167 186 per ha 15 19 21 23 16' 19 21 Net Cash Income 42 72 91 110 49 68 87 Animal Traction Gross Return 8/ 255 293 330 255 293 330 of which: cash sales 156 194 231 156 194 231 Costs Down-payment on traction unit 7 - - 13 - - Inpute (principal) 6/ 44 44 44 77 77 77 Seasonal interest 7/ - - - 5 5 5 Medium-term loan repayment 10 18 18 18 37 37 37 Subtotal 69 62 62 132 119 119 Net Return 187 231 268 123 174 211 per ha 19 23 27 12 17 21 Net Cash Income 88 132 169 31 75 112 1/ Years are counted from first year of adoption (AY 1) 2/ Base Gross Return at Annex 2, Table 3; incremental return on the improved area 60% in AY 1, 80% in AY 2, 100% in AY 3. T/ For Year 0, estimated as the proportion of gross income from the volume of produce in excess of 2 tons/farm; all incremental gross return available for cash sale. / Included in input costs in Annex 2, Table 2. / Difference between Base and Adjusted Gross Returns at Annex 2, Table 3. / Supplied as seasonal credit in kind. 7/ Subsidized input prices include interest; unsubsidized prices: interest at 9.5% per year for 8 months. I/ Adjusted Gross Return at Annex 2, Table 3 to reflect savings in transport of inputs to farm. 9/ Complete unit; total cost CFAF 65,000 subsidized, CFAF 133,000 unsubsidized. TO/ Four years, 9.5% per year. S61 - .q IGER ANNEX 2 Table 9 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVEOPMENT PROJECT Farmers' Returns over Time 1/: Center 'ear 0 Subsidized Prices Unsubsidized Prices Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 ----------------------------------------(CFAF '000)----------------------------- Manual Cultivation Gross Return 2/ 128 177 193 209 177 193 209 of which: cash sales 2/ 38 87 103 119 87 103 119 Rosts Transport of inputs to farm 4/ - 2 2 2 2 2 2 Transport of outputs to market 1/ 2 6 7 8 6 7 8 Inputs (principal) 6/ 9 28 28 28 46 46 46 Interest 7/ - - - - 3 3 3 Subtotal 11 36 37 38 57 58 59 Net Return 117 141 156 171 120 135 150 per ha 20 24 26 29 20 23 25 Net Cash Income 36 51 66 81 30 45 60 Animal Traction Gross Return 8/ 253 294 336 253 294 336 of which: cash sales 163 204 246 163 204 246 Costs Down-payment on traction unit q/ 7 - - 14 - - Inputs (principal) 6/ 53 53 53 91 91 91 Seasonal interest f/ - - - 6 6 6 Medium-term loan repayment 10/ 19 19 19 38 38 38 Subtotal 79 72 72 149 135 135 Net Return 174 222 264 104 159 201 per ha 22 28 33 13 20 25 Net Cash Income 84 132 14 14 69 111 1/ Years are counted from first year of adoption (AY 1). 2/ Base Grose Return at Annex 2, Table 3; incremental return on the improved area 60% in AY 1, 80% in AY 2, 100% in AY 3. T/ For Year 0, estimated as the proportion of gross income fram the volume of produce in excess of 2 tons/farm; all incremental gross return available for cash sale. 4/ Included in input costs in Annex 2, Table 2. / Difference between Base and Adfueted Gross Returns at Annex 2, Table 3. 67 Supplied as seasonal credit in kind. 7/ Subsidized input prices include interest; unsubsidized prices: interest at 9.5% per year for 8 months. I/ Adjusted Gross Return at Annex 2, Table 3 to reflect savings in transport of inputs to farm. 2/ Complete unit; total cost CFAF 67,500 subsidized; CFAF 137,000 unsubsidized. LO/ Four years, 9.5% per year. -62 - NIGER ANNEX 2 Table 10 DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Farmers' Returns over Time 1/: South Year 0 Subsidized Prices Unsubsidized Prices Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 -----0-----------------------------------)(CFAFO )-------------------------------- Manual Cultivation Gross Return 2/ 184 242 262 281 242 262 281 of which: cash sales 3/ 87 145 165 184 145 165 184 Costs Transport of inputs to farm 4/ - 2 2 2 2 2 2 Transport of outputs to market 5/ 7 11 12 13 11 12 13 Inputs (principal) 6/ 12 30 30 30 50 50 50 Interest 7/ - - - 3 3 3 Subtotal 19 43 44 45 66 67 68 Net Return 165 199 218 236 176 195 213 per ha 28 33 36 39 29 33 36 Net Cash Income 80 102 121 129 79 98 116 Animal Traction Gross Return 8/ 342 395 448 342 395 448 of which: cash sales 245 298 351 245 298 351 Coats Down-payment on traction unit 2/ 16 - - 26 - - Inputs (principal) 6/ 68 68 68 110 110 110 Seasonal Interest 77 - - - 7 7 7 Medium-term loan repayment 10/ 44 44 44 73 73 73 Animal feed and drugs 11/ 10 10 10 10 10 10 Subtotal 138 122 122 226 200 200 Net Return 204 273 326 116 195 248 per ha 26 34 41 15 24 31 Net Cash Income 97 176 229 19 98 151 1/ Years are counted from first year of adoption (AY 1). 2/ Base Gross Return at Annex 2, Table 3; incremental return on the improved area 60% in AY 1, 80% in AY 2, 100% in AY 3. 7/ For Year 0, estimated as the proportion of gross income from the volume of produce in excess of 2 tons/farm; all incremental gross return available for cash sale. 4/ Included in input costs in Annex 2, Table 2. / Difference between Base and Adjusted Gross Returns at Annex 2, Table 3. / Supplied as seasonal credit in kind. 7/ Subsidized input prices include interest; unsubsidized prices: interest at 9.5% per year for 8 months. I/ Adjusted Gross Return at Annex 2, Table 3 to reflect savings in transport of inputs to farm. q/ Complete unit; total cost CFAF 155,000 subsidized, CFAF 260,000 unsubsidized. 10/ Four years, 9.5% per year. 11/ As at Annex 2, Table 3, footnote 16. - 63 - ANNEX 2 Table 11 NIGEF DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPHEMT PRS,FI Project Costs by Year, by Component, and b o Tyye f E enditure Foreign Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Exchange ------------------ (CFAF Million)----------------- (FAF (USS '000) (%) Million) ~jComponent 'raining 325 60 55 61 55 556 2,527 64 Extension ill 148 178 211 140 789 3,585 49 Input Supply 94 432 1,094 1,347 1,281 4,247 19,306 64 Livestock Development 142 97 71 83 72 465 2,112 67 Rural Engineering 54 46 51 60 52 263 1,195 64 Applied Research 31 34 35 40 20 160 727 6? Project Management 84 87 86 105 68 429 1,949 Refunding PPA 7 - - - 3ase Cost 848 92 1,570 1,908 1,687 6,915 31,451 62 By Type of Expenditure Civil works 4 449 137 185 185 74 1,029 4,679 60 Vehicles and Equipment 19 158 105 98 125 37 523 2,378 90 Local Staff 47 30 80 113 153 187 563 2,557 0 Expatriate Staff and Consultants 34 116 133 127 133 70 579 2,630 80 Operating Costs 26 31 68 102 127 147 475 2,159 65 Inputs, Implements and Animale - 57 379 946 1,185 1,172 3,740 16,998 65 Refunding PPA - 7 - - -. - 7 30 80 Base Cost 130 848 902 1,570 1,908 1,687 6,915 51,411 62 Physical Contingencies 52 24 32 35 26 169 769 64 Expected Price Increases 42 105 299 520 588 1,555 7,068 57 Grand Total 942 1,031 1,901 2,463 2,301 8,639 39,268 61 1/ FAC Financing. Rows and columns may not add due to rounding of detailed figures at Working Paper 4, Tables 13 and 14. ANNEX 2 - 64 - Table 12 NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Project Financing by Type of Expenditure Total 1/ Govt CNCA Benef FAC CCCE IDA IDA ----- -- - -------- (CFAF million) -------------------(US$'000) Civil Works 2/ Base Costs. 1,029 216 - - 134 268 412 1,873 Physical Contingencies 104 22 - - 14 27 42 191 Expected Price Increases 279 59 - - 36 73 112 509 Total 1,412 297 - - 184 367 565 2,568 Vehicles and Equipment 3/ Base Costs 523 131 - - 131 262 - - Physical Contingencies 11 3 - - 3 6 - - Expected Price Increases 71 18 - - 18 36 - - Total 605 151 - - 151 303 - - Local Staff 4/ Base Costs 563 563 - - - - - - Physical Contingencies - - - - - - - - Expected Price Increases 206 206 - - - - - - Total 768 768 - - - - - - Expatriate Staff and Consultants 5/ Base Costs 579 - - - 87 174 318 1,445 Physical Contingencies - - - - - - - Expected Price Increases 87 - - - 13 26 48 218 Total 665 - - - 100 200 366 1,664 Operating Costs 6/ Base Costs 475 333 - - 48 95 - - Physical Contingencies 54 38 - - 5 11 - - Expected Price Increases 107 75 - - 11 21 - - Total 636 445 - - 64 127 - - Inputs, Implements and Animals 7/ Base Costs 3,740 - 212 736 - - 2,792 12,691 Physical Contingencies - - - - - - - Expected Price Increases 806 - 34 172 - - 600 2,727 Total 4,545 - 246 908 - - 3,391 15,414 Refunding PPA 7 - - - - - 7 32 Total 8/ Base Costs 6,915 1,243 212 736 400 799 3,529 16,041 Physical Contingencies 169 63 - - 22 44 42 191 Expected Price Increases 1,555 358 34 172 78 156 760 3,454 Total 8,639 1,661 246 908 499 997 4,331 19,678 1/ Numbers rounded from details at Working Paper 4, Table 14 2/ IDA 40%, CCCE 26%, FAC 13%, Government 21% 3/ CCCE 50%, FAC 25%, Government 25% 4/ Government 100% 5/ IDA 55%, CCCE 30%, FAC 15% 6/ Government 70%, CCCE 20%, FAC 10% 7/ Breakdown and details of CNCA and Beneficiaries financing at Working Paper 4, Table 17. 8/ Totals are sums of appropriate lines above; those lines nay not add due to rounding; subtotal and total columns may not add due to rounding. - 65- ANNEX 2 Table 13 NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Project Financine by Year 1/ Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total ------------- ------------------------------(CFA million) Government 2/ Base Costa 185 183 248 312 315 1,243 Physical Contingencies 13 9 13 14 13 62 Expected Price Increases 9 25 62 111 149 356 Total 208 219 321 438 477 1,663 CNCA 3/ Base Costs 42 42 42 42 42 212 Physical Contingencies - - - - - Expected Price Increases 1 4 7 10 13 34 Total 44 46 49 52 55 246 Beneficiaries 3/ Base Costs - 59 133 236 308 736 Physical Contingencies - - - - - Expected Price Increases - 5 21 54 92 172 Total - 64 154 290 400 908 PAC 4/ Base Costs 118 71 78 88 44 399 Physical Contingencies 7 3 4 4 3 21 Expected Price Increases 6 9 18 28 18 79 Total 131 83 99 120 65 498 CCCE 5/ Base Costs 237 142 156 176 88 799 Physical Contingencies 14 6 8 9 6 43 Expected Price Increases 11 17 35 56 36 155 Total 262 165 198 241 131 997 IDA 6/ Base Costs 265 406 915 1,054 890 3,530 Physical Contingencies 18 6 8 8 3 43 Expected Price Increases 14 44 158 261 281 758 Total 297 456 1,081 1,323 1,174 4,331 Total Base Costs 848 902 1,570 1,908 1,687 6,915 Physical Contingencies 52 24 32 35 26 169 Expected Price Increases 42 105 299 520 588 1,555 Total 942 1,031 1,901 2,463 2,301 8,639 1/ Base data from Working Paper 4, Table 14 2/ 21% of civil works, 25% of vehicles and equipment, 100% of local staff and 70% of operating costs. 3/ Breakdown and details of CNCA and Beneficiaries' financing at Working Paper 4, Table 17. 4/ 13% of civil works, 25% of vehicles and equipment, 15% of expatriate staff and consultants, 10% of operating costs. 5/ 26% of civil works, 55% of expatriate staff and consultants, 100% of incremental inputs and implements. 6/ 40% of civil works, 55% of expatriate staff and consultants, 100% of incremental inputs and implements. -66- ANNEX 2 Table 14 NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule Base Cost plus Rounded for Disbursement Categories Physical Contingencies Disbursement Schedule (CFAF Million) (US$ '000) (US$'000) I. Civil Works 454 2,064 1,900 II. Expatriate Staff and Consultants 318 1,445 1,370 III. Inputs and Implements 2,792 12,691 12,700 IV. Refunding of PPA 7 32 30 V. Unallocated 760 3,455 4,000 Total 4,331 19,687 20,000 Disbursement Schedule IDA Disbursements Quarterly Cumulative ------------- (US$ Million)---------------- FY 1980: 4th Quarter 0.1 0.1 FY 1981: 1st Quarter 0.1 0.2 2nd Quarter 0.4 0.6 3rd Quarter 0.4 1.0 4th Quarter 0.5 1.5 FY 1982: 1st Quarter 0.5 2.0 2nd Quarter 0.6 2.6 3rd Quarter 0.6 3.2 4th Quarter 1.0 4.2 FY 1983: 1st Quarter 1.2 5.4 2nd Quarter 1.4 6.8 3rd Quarter 1.4 8.2 4th Quarter 1.6 9.8 FY 1984: 1st Quarter 1.6 11.4 2nd Quarter 1.5 12.9 3rd Quarter 1.5 14.4 4th Quarter 1.4 15.8 FY 1985: 1st Quarter 1.2 17.0 2nd Quarter 1.0 18.0 3rd Quarter 0.8 18.8 4th Quarter 0.8 19.6 FY 1986 1st Quarter 0.2 19.8 2nd Quarter 0.2 20.0 NIGER ANNEX 2 D0830 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPHENT PROJXCT hal 15 Government cash flow Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 20 y --------------------------------------------------tkFAh Million z/)----------------------------------------- Inflow IDA CreditjI/ - 220 484 1100 1,364 968 264 - - CCCF Credit 4/ - 262 165 198 241 131 - - - - - FAC Grant 2 - 131 83 99 120 65 - - - - - Beneficiaries: 6/ project iscremental - - 14 74 182 230 224 - - - - non-project items 22 22 24 40 121 321 551 775 775 775 775 775 non-annual inputs 21 21 44 98 231 350 384 337 410 433 384 391 Subtotal 43 43 82 212 534 901 1,159 1,112 1,185 1,218 1,159 1,166 Crop Reve..e 7/ 71 - 1 8 23 46 58 65 65 65 65 65 Indirect Taxes8/ 239 - 10 46 125 246 344 391 391 391 391 391 Total 656 825 t61 2,407 P 1,825 1,562 1 635 Outflow Project Costs 2- 899 964 1,796 2,350 2,196 - - - - - - Pre-financing LO/ - 520 254 - - - - - - - - - Non-project costs: Existing services 11/ 249 7 (1) (12) (24) (38) (38) (38) (38) (38) ('8) (38) Subsidies on annual inputs 6 33 34 96 273 519 781 781 781 781 781 781 781 Subsidies on non-annual inputs 12/ - - - - - - 339 612 549 (161) 339 '35 Foet-project services: Trainingll/ - - - - - - 79 79 79 79 79 79 Extension13/ - - - - - 201 201 201 201 201 201 Input Delivery System 14/ - - - - - - 221 268 246 223 189 227 Applied Research 13/ - - - - - - 31 36 31 51 36 32 Project Management 13/ - - - - - - 74 86 74 74 86 78 Subtotal 282 41 95 261 495 743 1,688 2,025 1,923 1,190 1,673 1,695 IDA Debt Service 15/ 2 5 14 24 31 33 33 33 33 33 74 CCCE Debt Service 16/ 9 15 22 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 120 Total 282 1,471 L= 2093 2,899 3,097 1,75 2,393 1 991 1 218 1,741 1-890 Surplus (Deficit) Annual 71 (815) (508) (430) (492) (650) 69 (531) (316) 410 (132) (274) Cumulative 17/ (815) (1,323) (1-753) (2,245) (2,895) (2,826) (5,357) (5,713) (3,303) (3,435) (6,180) 1, Average of Years 11-20. 2/ Current prices through Year 5, constant thereafter. 7/ As in disbursement schedule at Annex 2, Table 1 4 / Anex 2, Table 13 / Annex 2, Table 13 / Details at Working Paper 4, table 17. 7/ Total in Year 0, incremental thereafter; Cowpeas. 20% of output (Annex 2, Table 7) at CFAF 10/kg, being the difference between economic and official prices for the 1978/79 harvest (Working Paper 5, Table 2); Groundnuts: no revenue in Year 0 since the official price for the 1978/79 harvest is slightly above the economic price; subsequently a linear increase to CFAF 5/kg in Year 5, on 20% of output (Annex 2, Table 7), as the official price is held conatant whereas the economic price will increase; all crop revenues inflated at 6%/year. 8/ Total in Year 0, incremental thereafter; total cash incomes aggregated from family incomes from rainfed farming at Table 6.1 , numbers of families at Table 5.1; rate of increase of cash incomes through Year 7 as per Production Index at Working Paper 5, Table 4; 20% of without-project cash income spent on duty-bearing goods with an average rate of duty of 25%; 50% of incremental cash income spent on duty bearing goods at 25% rate of duty; inflated at 6%/year. Annex 2, rable 11, excluding loans for fattening steers, financed by CNCA, and acquisition of oxen, financed by beneficiaries. 10, Working Paper 4, Table 17; ano of incremental prefinancing to cover Resource Gaps in annual inputs and in non-annual inputs plue a further CFAF 200 million in Year 1 to prefinance all project operating costs; the amounts at Working Paper 4, Table 17 are maxima in any year - all expenditures are shown prior to any receipts whereas there will be considerable overlap depending on contract details and use of Disbursement Procedure III. Finance charges (not shown here) will be incurred to the extent to which the CFAF 400 million line of credit for prefinancing project investments is used. 11/ Total in Tear 0, incremental thereafter; details at Working Paper 4, Table 15. 2/ Working Paper 4, Table 17; Resource Gap in Year 6 and thereafter. Working Paper 5, Table 6; inflated by 40% for Year 6 and thereafter. /As I, delivery systems for rainfed farming and livestock development. 5/ Standard terms; 0.75% service charge on amount disbursed and outstanding; repayment over 50 years of which 10 years grace, next 10 years repayment of principal at 1%/year, last 30 years 3%/year; Year 20: actual amount shown. L6/ Assuming interest 3.5%; repayment over 2C years of which 10 years grace, last 10 years: annuity; Year '20: actual amount shown. 17/ Year 20 includes cumulation of annual deficits Years 11-20, including specific IDA debt service which declines from CFAF 77 million in fear 11. - 68 - ANNEX 3 NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Selected Documents and Data in Project File A. Selected Reports and Studies Relating to the Project A.1 Dosso Province Agricultural Development Project, preparation report by a Belgian bilateral aid team, September 1977 (in French); A.2 Feasibility Study of a Dosso Rural Development Project, preparation report by a FAC team, January 1978 (in French); A.3 Dosso Province Rural Development Project, complementary preparation report by Messrs. Boucher and Bredero, October'1978 (in French). B. Working Papers B.1 Social Analysis B.2 Training, Extension, Crop Development and Applied Research B.3 Livestock Development B.4 Project Costs B.5 Economic Analysis NIGER DOSSO AGRICULTURAL DEVLEOPMENT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE Calendar and Project Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Quarters 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 14 1T2 3 4 TRAINING CENTER Design Construction \\X\ Equipment Procurement Training of Village Extension Workers EXTENSION ((6 (6) (6) Construction/Improvement of Farm Service Centers (No.) (36 136) (361 Incremental Trained Village Extension Works (No.) Incremental Contact Farmers (No.) (118432) 18432 18432 18432 Incremental Farmers Contacted (No.) INPUT AND IMPLEMENT SUPPLY Seed Multiplication through Outgrowers Rock Phosphate Application ULV Sprayers \'(456) '(14831 (2167) Donkey-Traction Units ((570 570 56 Ox Traction Units '21671\ LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT (800) (800) (800) 1800) (800) Incremental Cattle Fattened (No.) Construction of Veterinary Posts (No.) Construction of Vaccination Yards (No.) Abattoir/Market Improvements (No.) RURAL ENGINEERING Construction of Offices and Farm Services Centers Equipment Procurement Planning of Project Construction Programme Supervis,on of Construction Bottomland Development APPLIED RESEARCH PROJECT MANAGEMENT Procurement of Vehicles and Equipment Procurement of Inputs and Implements Monitoring Auditing Preparation of a follow-up Pro*et \, \i W SRains World Bank - 20154 ：덕， 【「『「「 JBRD 14214 400 MAY 1979 J 450 T A H 0 U A N I G E R DOSSIO AGRICULTURAL 10- -14- DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 550 N,ý A -ýM E RAINFALL AND POPULATION DENSITY POPULATION DENSITY PER Kirn More than 100 55-99 25-49 t- 600 NIA -t 10-24 j. 1-4 Less than 4 lsohyets in L ............ AgrýEcological Zones (Farm Model Zones) Esc.,pi-n-ts Administrative District Headquartes 13-- 'o C4 ä l. Administrative District Boundaries 3 Provincial Boundaries international Boundarics 7 A L G E R l A CN ýi -12- 12-. M A L I i U P P E R 40 Ei0 80 N I G E R KILOMETERS V 0 L T A M p CHAL) fh-PhaSbeenp a,edbytheWoridBwksstaff-xclus,velyforthecQ,),e,ý,ýnýe 1,1 .. dýr_ sh~ ., this mep dý ro-ply, - the. part of the World Bank and ots ýff,4&tes, nyjudg-t ~ the tegat tatus f -y temtory or &ly endorseme,ýt o, acceptance of such bo".,,,,, 4" 5,. "Ä N l G E R l A  IBRD 14215 0 15 4. so MAY 1979 Kou tournbov klakourdi k 110 Souco e0utane 1 r NIGER .14 -DOSSO AGRICULTURAL 1 DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 0 <EXISTING AND PROPOSED AGRICULTURAL FACILITIES - -EXISTING: -i p Administrative District Offices l ' rie Agricultural District Offices It- ) - 0 InputhWarehouses I -- - .. - - - Veterinary Facilities with Permanent Staff NIA7 - Young Farmers Training Center ~- T 11 Å Seed Farm in- p Animal Implement Assembly Units 'I | 'Small Irrigation Schemes 0 - . PROPOSED: S- lr Training Center s -Farm Service Centers ---- - - Veterinary Post NVOR TH Båttom Land Developments -130 jiRN E> St -' T ( Abattoir and Market Improvements 13e Ii-,. I Agricultural District -T... l li Agro-ecological Zones (Farm Model Zones) F Tar Roads o,AGRICULTURAL YtAR OF OD..AGRI LCTS IMPLEMENTATION Laterite Roads .4-p PY 2 - - - -- Tracks PY 3 .••.••••• Feeder Roads l mprovement Program SPY4 Escarpments "7i ..] PY t Administrative District Boundaries -j :l Provincial Boundaries -- International Boundaries 60 A L G E R l A D - 12. SOUTH .12' U -MA L I G E R U P PER 2p ap0 lp 80 E K l LOMETER S VO L T A B E N I - CHAD prepared by the World Bank's ee exivey or ihe conevnieLce ' r report to which it is attached. The denominations used and the .A Y Ch a -- - - - - - - - - - - -- n this map de est imply', en the pairt of the World Bank and itse &/ Ca affiliates, anyjudgment on the legal stats of yterritory er any endosement or acceptance of suh bountdares. UFFER N R A 35 30 40 so VOLTANGEI