Argentina - Economic memorandum

Report No. 2208-AR Economic Memorandum on FILE COPy Argentina November 26, 1978 Latin Amenca and the Caribbean Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY U Document of the World Bank This. documnent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients orly in the perfotrnarxe of their off iciat duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization  CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Currency Unit = Peso ($a) Exchange Rate Effective October 25, 1978 US$ 1.00 - $a905 sal,000 = US$1.10 $al,000.O0O = US$1,105.00  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This report is based on the findings of an economic mission to Argentina in March/April 1978, composed of: Jan Peter Wogart (Chief of Mission) Michael Anderson (General Economist) Helen Chan (National Account Specialist) Roberto Abusada (Consultant, Industrial and Social Sector Economist) Juan Cariaga (Consultant, Fiscal Economist) This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Map Country Data Summary and Conclusions . ........... ..................... i-ix I. BACKGROUND ......................... . ............ I II. STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION, 1976-1978 ......... 3 1. Emergency Measures. 3 2. Fluctuations in Output and Employment 4 3. The External Sector ......................... 6 4. Fiscal Policy ...... ............................ 8 5. Monetary Policy .. ........ .............................. 11 6. Wage Policy .................................... 13 7. Stabilization and Inflation ......... . ........... 16 8. Outlook for 1978 ................... 18 III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ................... ............. 20 1. Agriculture .................................... 20 2. Industry .......................................... 0.......... 26 3. Energy ....* .................................... 30 IV. PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ...... .. 36 1. Growth Prospects ........ .............................. 36 2. The Public Investment Program .......... ........ 37 3. Financing Public Investment ......... .. ......... 40 4. Balance-of-Payments and External Capital Requirements . ... ..... . . ... .................. 43 V. STATISTICAL APPENDIX ................................ 48   TEXT TABLES Table 1: Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure and by Industrial Origin at Constant Prices, 1975-77 Table 2: Balance of Payments, 1975-77 Table 3: Public Sector and Treasury Operations, 1975-78 Table 4: Major Factors of Monetary Expansion, 1975-78 Table 5: Agricultural Production and Exports of Main Crops, 1969-78 Table 6: Nominal and Effective Protection, 1976-77 Table 7: Five Year Public Investment Projections, 1978-82 Table 8: Public Investment and Finance, 1976-77 and Projected 1978-82 Table 9: Projected Capital Requirements and Finance, 1977-82  I  IBRD-12432R . BOLIVIA \, SEPTMEBER1977 -~~~~~~ 0t L I V t A\ !fr 1 SOUTH i ia0u.iacn " fPoc, ; : ._o.,,J ';AMERIk CA / "4z~ .1~co\ 34 - Son ~PARAG>UAY -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ron6 / M ( / .1 ,SALA [on Lonnito il ) i)Argen ino X to IM i' rRM0SA ( 1eNno do,detnigoyen 38 ;Sonn \ 0 oS. d1 2 RESIOTE -& l 6 , ~~~~~~~~~Eteno / r' n*nea COREIE* ELES 400 t S CATAMARCAk / I 11G R > 44J j*L<ARIOJA $ 0iGoyo'2 / B93R A ZI}L 30j XS,AN; ~ ; ,, *21// 30V 3-I SANTIAGO me. URUGUAY 4/ 4SANRAFAEL K E AIlRES 'DE O t g S ~~~~~~~~~~~ROSA(\ G - 48 1 |d ViIBAHIA _ *L PAATA O Sk lh01 f Nn:ew,. } 0q 0 ~409 ~~, G/So~~~Jsgo, oq ARGENTINA 0*9 1.- -'- 1( '''~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~rnia osf rporX \s <~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~91 9< 990h, 2 t >=5+ C > 9 gaffof5arJorye A~~~~~~~~~~Roica boundaries Wood 6ask* s tE- I l --u'a>isCOtdO OIn ononnon ofOte,oad,r*of ~~~~~~~~ 5.-7C' ~~KILOMETERS do ott too osh.'ioO 0fh 00 200 300 400 I,doOsot -h 50* l.o*It Jt - f .- lVf MILES St _0,00,Prirnory eOdoodsestet 80' toJ 45* 0 ---E od   Page 1 of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - ARGENTINA AREA 2/ POPULATION DENSITY 2,776.9 kn- 26.1 million (mid-1977) 9.4 per akm-/ agricultural Rate of Growth: 1.3 (from 1970 to 1977) 14.43 per kmY/of land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1970-1975) HEALTH Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 21.8 Population per physician 460 (1975) Crude Death Ratf< (per 1,000) 8.8 Population per hospital bed 170 (1971) Infant Mortals.y (per 1,000 live births)51.0 INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1970) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP