New patterns of violence in Indonesia : preliminary evidence from six 'high conflict' provinces

59363 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 Policy Brief Understanding Conflict Dynamics Conflict and Development and Impacts in Indonesia Program Edition III November 2010 New Patterns of Violence in Indonesia: Preliminary Evidence from Six `High Conflict' Provinces The large-scale violent conflicts in Indonesia that took place during its transition to democracy have been This briefing provides early studied well. Yet relatively little evidence is available to policy-makers on the levels, forms and impacts of evidence from the Violent violent conflict in recent years. This brief provides early evidence from the Violent Conflict in Indonesia Study Conflict in Indonesia Study (ViCIS), commissioned by Bappenas, on conflict dynamics in six provinces affected by large-scale violence (ViCIS), a joint collaboration --Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, Papua, and West Papua--for the 1998-2008 period. The between the Indonesian National results show that: Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), JRI-Research, the The extended communal and separatist violence that accompanied Indonesia's democratic transition has USAID-SERASI program, and now largely subsided since its 1999-2004 peak. However, many of the factors that drove these conflicts the World Bank's Conflict and have not been fully dealt with and old conflict issues continue to result in incidents of violence. Development program. The High levels of routine violent conflict--frequently occurring forms of violence, such as clashes between study's methodology is outlined in neighborhood gangs, violent political demonstrations, beatings of suspected thieves, or fights over land-- the following publication: are present in the six provinces. These have resulted in 2,000 violent conflict incidents on average per year since 2006, in areas accounting for only 4 percent of Indonesia's population. During 2006-2008, Patrick Barron, Sana Jaffrey, Blair these conflicts led to over 600 deaths, 6,000 injuries, and the destruction of more than 1,900 buildings. Palmer and Ashutosh Varshney Given that past episodes of extended violence were preceded by smaller-scale violent incidents, the high (2009). "Understanding Violent prevalence of routine violence indicates a potential for escalation. Conflict in Indonesia: A Mixed The nature of violent conflict in Indonesia has undergone a gradual shift. While identity issues were behind Methods Approach." Indonesian most of the large-scale violence between 1999-2004, popular justice issues are now dominant, accounting Social Development Paper No. 15. for more than half of the conflict deaths in recent years. The forms violent conflict is taking have also Jakarta: World Bank. shifted. Riots and group clashes continue to occur but less frequently, with assaults and fights accounting for most deaths in recent years. A brief documentary can be The security response to violent conflict remains weak. Only 7 percent of violent conflict incidents recorded viewed at: http://www.youtube. in the database between 2005-2008 saw any intervention from the military or the police, including the com/watch?v=UCngGGjxhE4 Special Forces (Brimob). Conflicts between elements of the security forces, which presented an obstacle to effective law enforcement during the high conflict period, also continue to lead to deadly incidents. Of the provinces covered so far, Papua shows the highest aggregate levels of violent conflict and Maluku registers the steepest rise in the number of violent conflict incidents in recent years. In Aceh, separatist Two series of Policy Briefs are violence ended in 2005 but the number of popular justice incidents has been on the rise since then; published by the Conflict and most of the post-MoU violence is concentrated in the pre-MoU conflict hotspots. Across each province, Development program within the levels, forms and impacts of violent conflict vary greatly between districts, showing the importance of World Bank Indonesia country local factors in driving violent conflict. team. The first, "Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts," There is a growing recognition among the government and civil society that a shift is needed in the national summarizes the results of approach to conflict management from ad-hoc responses to an overarching policy framework that adopts a research on conflict in Indonesia. preventative approach. Several initiatives are underway to create such a framework, including the drafting These briefs draw out lessons for of a new Grand Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Management and a legislative bill on Social Conflict understanding and responding Management. ViCIS findings highlight that such attempts should consider the following key issues and to conflict in other middle- measures: income countries. The second, "Evaluating Responses to Development of a comprehensive policy framework that addresses the structural causes of past large- Conflict," summarizes the results scale conflicts and prioritizes management of routine violent conflict to prevent escalation into larger of evaluations and assessments episodes. of conflict programs, and the Investment in systematic conflict monitoring, particularly in hot-spots, as a foundation for early-warning methodological implications of systems. how we can best measure the Measures to improve the ability of the law enforcement agencies to effectively respond to violence. impacts of peace-building efforts. Strengthening of local dispute resolution mechanisms to increase societal resilience and prevent All Policy Briefs are available at escalation. www.conflictanddevelopment.org Continued investment in peace-building programming in post-conflict areas, but with local leadership. Involvement of local actors in the formulation of a national policy framework. Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia 1 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 INTRODUCTION Map 1: Provinces covered by ViCIS Indonesia's democratic transition was accompanied by a range of violent conflicts. Separatist conflict in Aceh escalated and claimed thousands of lives before a successful peace deal in 2005, and continues at a low intensity in Papua. Thousands died in ethnic riots in West and Central Kalimantan and Jakarta. Inter-religious and inter- ethnic violence broke out in 1999 in Maluku and North Maluku and in 1998 and 2000 in Central Sulawesi. Terrorist acts have been infrequent but deadly. In addition, many areas have been affected by smaller- scale `routine' violent conflicts over is a need for new evidence to ensure analyzed in a separate publication. resources, politics, and identities. that policy-making is built on up-to- Key questions addressed are: date and accurate information on