World bank research program : abstracts of current studies

 75633 l,' World Bank Research Program Abstracts of Current Studies .. ! I\ 11 August 1913  .. ' ,. . WORLD BANK RESEARCH PROGRAM Abstracts of Current Studies August 1973 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Stref:t, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Foreword ............ ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 List of current studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Abstracts of current studhes: main catt:gories I. General Development Policy and Planning,. . . . . . . . 14 II. International Trade and Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 III. Agriculture: and Rura1 Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 IV. Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 V. Transportation ............................. . 32 VI. Public Utilities ............................. . 36 VII. Urbanization and Regional Development ......... . 39 VIII. Population and Human Resources .............. . 41 I ~-· 3 !i'  FOREWORD This publication provides an overview of the World Bank's research program and a brief description of projects currently in progress. Now in its third year, the program deals with general issues of development policy as well as specific sectoral l'roblems of particular concern to the Bank's operations in developing countries. The Bank's research js increasingly conducted in collaboration with scholars ao.d research institutions in developing countries and is focused on problems of mutual concern. By distributing information on studies now undf;r way, we hope to contribute to the international cooperation so greatly needed in the effort to learn more about the process of development. Hollis B. Chenery Vice Presldent, Development Policy 5  INTRODUCTION This second annual compilation of abstracts is intended primarily for professionals and scholars, both in and out of Government, who deal with problems of economic and social development. It provides a summary view of work curr~ntly undc{ way in the World Bc:nk:'s central research program. This edition includes descriptions of fifty-three proj- ects, twenty-four of which \Vere added to the program during the fiscal year ending June 30, 1973. The contral research program was established in 1971. It responds to a need for irn.pruved social aud econonJ.ic knowledge throughout the range of Wodd Bank Group operations, which have expanded rapidly over the last five years in beth. scope and variety. The Group now takes a far more compreh~nsive view of the development process. It places greater e1.11phasis on the distribution of the benefits of economic gro .v'th, espedally to the poorest segments of the population. It has become deeply committed to helping member governments in their efforts to resolve basic dilemrrias arising from rapid population growth, pervasive rural poverty, high and rising levels of unemployment, and a massive flow of migrants from rurai to urban areas. The Group's lending and technical assistance activities reflect this wider and deeper commitment. They now include support for projects in new fields, such as populat::on pl~.nning and urban development. They also include a wide range of new and innovative approaches to problems in the more traditional sectors: non-formal rural education, for example, and the financing of on-farm improvements, feeder roads and integ1ated rural development. This program supplements the large volume of regular economic work that has traditionally been an integral part of the Group's opera- tions, by providing it with a broader a.nd more comprchemdve factual and conceptual base. This function is especially important forth;; new types of activity in which the Bank is and will become engaged and for the analysis and formulation of new policies, both by the Bank and by its member governments. More fr.iidamentally, the program is directed at obta1ning a better understanding of the general development process in areas of particular importance to the Bank, with emphasis on the diversity of experience of developing countries and on the interdepen- dence of decision making at all levels. An important objective of this program is to provide support to research institutions in developing countries. While research funds are not available to provide grants for general institutional support, specific research projects are increasingly being designed and executed in collab- oration with private and public institutions in developing countries. Such collaboration serves to reinforce mutual analytical expertise and understanding of development issues. 7  All studies in the ,central research program involve the use of indi- vidual or institutional consultants as a supplement to Bank staff in- volvement. As a general rule, research projects are initiated by staff .members and selected through a formal review process. Research pro- posals put forward by outside institutions or individuals for financi11g by the Bank are entertained only in a limited number of subject areas and when they dearly meet specific priority needs of the Bank Group. They are subject to the same review procedures as internal projects. The Research Portfolio TI1e current research portfolio, described in the following pages, does not yet fully reflect all of the priority operational concerns of th~ Bank, since new projects in such areas as population, employment, ·~rbanization, rural development and the distribution of public expendi- tures are still in preparation. The studies in the first category, General Development Policy and Planning, and some of those in other categories, repre:..ent the core of the Bank Group's effort to increase understanding of developmental issues and improve the knowledge arid techniques required for country economic analysis. Research on income distribution is a rapidly expand- ing and relatively new aspect of the program. At this stage, it focuses on the understanding and evaluation of data, and on the incorporation of income distribution as.pects in feasible analytical models. The first study in this part of the program, "Planning for Development and Income Distdbution," edited by Hollis B. Chencry, John Duloy and Richard Jolly, is scheduled for completion this year. The research program includes a significant amount of work on trade and industrial policies, and on economic planning in developing countries. Studies are being made of alternative trade and fiscal incen- tive systems, regional integration, industrial capacity utilization, indus- trial planning, and economy-wide planning with intersectorallinkages. One study,Multi-level Planning: Case Studies in Mexico, edited by Alan Manne and Louis Goreux, has been published by the North-Holland Publishing Company. A second, Prospects for Partnership: Industrializa- tion and Trade Policies During the 1970s, edited by Helen Hughes, is being published by the Johns Hopkins University Press. Another study expected soon is "Development Strategies in Semi-Industrial Planning with Economies of Scale," edited by Ardy Stoutjesdijk and Larry Westphal. A major study, undertaken jointly with the United Nations under the direction of Irving Kravis, is design~d to develop data on compara- tive purchasing power in developing countries. It will provide more realistic estimates of income and expenditure patterns than present accounts converted at official exchange rates. The data collected for this project will also provide an improved basis for a wide variety of economic analyses. 8  The projects in Agriculture and Rural Development reflect the be- ginning of a program of research to support the Bank's new and diversi- fied activities in this sector, with particular em:->hasis on rural devel!op- ment and smallholder agriculture. The emphasis on the rural sector is also reflected in several other studies in the program. In Transport, two major studies of capital-labor substitution in road construction and of highway design standards complement each other. The first seeks to define the factor substitution options for specified design standards, on the basis of detailed analysis of actual operatirons of different types. It also includes analysis of construction activities in other civil works. The second seeks to measure road maintenance and user costs on different quality roads. On the basis of the:;e data, it will be possible to develop highway design standards more suitable to cur- rent conditions in developing countries. Both these studies are generat- ing primary data of basic importance to highway planning and develop- ment and have attracted interest in several developing countries. The research emphasis in Public Utilities is on the difficult areas of planning utility services. to "'thin" rural markets and on appropriate technology of developing countne, · · ·1 research also includes theoreti- cal work on prking and investmentl.,u~..;s. The research program on Urbanization and Regional Development is in its initial phase, with emphasis on improvement or' the statistical base and preliminary theoretical explorations. A study on Economic Models of Internal Migration has recently been completed and is being processed for distribution. Additional studies on urban land use pat- terns, low cost housing and the role of intermediate towns in the total urban system are presently under preparation. Finally, the present program in Population and Human Resources includes several studies on education and labor markets and a study of public works programs. The studies on education are concerned with the problems of evaluation of the benefits from education projects, methods of education financing, and the relative merits of differen: types of education programs. The studies on labor markets are mutually complementary and will lead to a comparative analysis of aspects of urban unemployment and of rural-urban migration. Research projects in the areas of population and health are under preparation. Correspondence Copies of this publication may be obtained on request to: Publication Office World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 or to: 9  World Bank 66 Avenue d'Iena 75116 Paris, France This and all other publications of the World Bank Group that are released for general distribution are listed in the World Bank Catalog, which is also available on request. The Catalog provides full information on how to request copies of Listed papers referred to in some of the abstracts. Requests fl.."'r unpublished papers, however, or for further informa- tion on specific research projects still in progress, should be addressed to the Director of the responsible Department or to the Chief of the responsible Division, as listed in the various abstracts in this publica- tion. An international meeting of Directors of Dewlopment Research and Training Institutes was sponsored by the Bank and the Organiza- tion for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1972 in Belgrade, to establish contacts and promote collaboration. As a result, a program has been established for the regular exchange of research docu- ments with development research centers. Institutions wishing to join the program should write to the Secretary to the Research Committee, Office of the Vice President for Development Policy, World Bank. 10  LlST OF CURRENT STUDIES Category- Title- Research Program Code* Executing Department *Each project is assigned 'ln RPO number L DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND PLAliNING Dcvelopmert t Strategies in Scmi-Industrlal Develop~:,~nt Research Countries: RPO 101 Center Patterns of Demand and Savings in the Development Research Development Process: RPO 203 Center Multi-level Planning-- Ca~e Studies in Development Research Ivory Coast: RPO 204 Center C'rot;s·Section Analysis of Developn·;·mt Econ-omic Analysis and Pattr~rns: RPO 205 Projections Short-Run and Long-Run Influences Upon Development Research Income Distribution: RPO 206 Center International Models: RPO 207 DevelopmPnt Research Center Project Appraisal and Shadow Prices: RPO 208 Development Research Center Survey of Economy-Wide Planning Models Development Research and Their Applications: RPO 210 Center International Comparison Project: RPO 268 Ecc.1omic Analysis and Projections Growth and Income Distribution in Brazil: Development Research RPO 269 Center Analysis of Income and Consumption: Development Research RPO 274 c~nter Evalu ..:~.tion of Latin American Data on Income Development Research Distribution: RPO 283 Center Growth, Employment and the Size Distribu- Development Research tion of Income: RPO 284 Center Urban Income Distribution in Latin America: Development Research RPO 285 Center Prototype Models for Country Analysis: Development Research RPO 286 Center and Economic Analysis and Projections Employment and Income Distribution in Development Research Malaysid: RPO 294 Center II. INTERNATIOr ... L TRADE AND FINANCE Interrelated Economic Development of the East Asia Regional Office and South-East Asia in the Seventies: RPO 279 Comparative Analysis of Resource Allocation Economic Analysis and in Cocoa Production: RPO 281 Projections 11  Category- Title- Research Program Code* Executing Department *Each project is assigned an RPO number III AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT Reappraisal of Credits for Financing Farm Development Economics Mechanization in Pakistan: RPO 212 Department Evaluation of Methods for Specifying Agricul- Agriculture Department tural Sector Development Strategies - Brazil and Portugal Case Studies: RPO 213 Agricultural Mechanization in India: RPO 214 Agriculture Department The Agricultural Sector in Mexico: RPO 216 Development Research Center Rural Development in Africa: RPO 218 Development Economics Department Rural Deveiopment and Small-Scale Agricul- Development Research ture in Northeast Brazil: RPO 273 Center Comparative Experience with Land Reform Development Economics in Latin America: RPO 280 Department Development Strategies for Smallholder Agri- Development Economics culture: A Case Study in Yugoslavia: RPO 289 Department Evaluation of the Lilongwe Land Development Development Economics Program: RPO 29 3 Department IV. INDUSTRY The Scope for Capital-Labor Substitution in Development Research Mechanical Engineering Industry: RPO 223 Center Programming in the Manufacturing Sector: Development Research RPO 224 Center Industrial Capacity Utilization in Selected Industrial Projects Latin American Countries: RPO 225 Department Financing of Small-Scale Industry: RPO 277 Development Economics Department Industrial Policies and Economic Integration Deve\opment Research in West Africa: RPO 287 Centt:r Industrial Capacity Utilization in Malaysia: Development Economics RPO 295 Department V. TRANSPORTATION Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Transportation Road and Civil Works Construction: RPO 226 Department Highway Design Study: RPO 227 Transportation Department Measurement of Road Width, Traffic Flow, Transportatjon Vehicle Speed Relationships: RPO 228 Department Feeder Roads in Yemen Arab Republic: Transportation RPO 229 Department 12  Category- Title- Research Program Code* Executing DeptJ[tment *Each project is assigned an RPO number Compilation of Highway Design Standards: Transportation RPO 232 Department Feeder Roads in Ethiopia~ RPO 271 Transpcrtation Department VL PUBLIC UTILITIES Property Values and Water Supply Be}1efits: Public Utilities RPO 236 Department Analysis of P1·oblems and Issues in Village Public Utilities Electrification: RPO 238 Department Pricing and Investment in Electricity Supply: Public Utilities RPO 239 Department Standards of Reliabi.Uty of Urban Electricity Public Utilities Supply: RPO 267 Department Pricing and Investment in Telecommunications: Public Utilities RPO 276 Department VII. URBANIZATION AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT The Urban Da·~a Needs of the IBRD: RPO 241 Development Economics Department Urban Public Finance and Administration Development Economics in Developing Countries: RPO 270 Department VIII. POPULATION AND f!UlviAN RESOURCES Labor Market and Education in Malaysia: Development Economics RPO 243 Department Student Loan Schemes and Other Forms of Education Department Cost Reallocation: A Systems Approach to Education Financing: RPO 244 Labor Force Participation, Income and Development Eeonomics Unemployment: RPO 245 Department Cost Effectiveness of Alternative Learning Education Department Technologies in Industrial Training: RPO 246 Rural and Urba.-1 Public Works: RPO 275 Development Economics Department Project Evaluation Methodology- Education Education Der lftment Attainments: RPO 278 The Labor Market in a Rapidly Growing Urban Development Economics Area: RPO 290 Department The Benefits of Schooling for Workers: Development Economics RPO 291 Department 13  I. GENERAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND PLANNING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN SEMI-INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES: RPO 201 Development Research Center This study compares and evaluates the effects of alternative incen- tives on resource allocation, trade and economic growth in Argentina, Colombia, Israel, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. It enlarges the scope of an earlier study, "The Structure of Protection in Developing Coun- tries,'" by Bela Balassa and Associates, published by the Johns Hopkins Press, 1971. The first part of each country study outlines the historical develop- ment of the incentive systems, with separate treatments of tariffs, quan- titative restrictions, export subsidies, exchange rates, credit and taxes as well as various institutional factors. In the second part, each country's protective measures are quantified and used to devise indicators, such as the effective rate of subsidy, to express net incentives to individual industries, export and import activities and foreign investment. Finally, a comparative analysis of the different incentive systems is undertaken on the basis of the separate country case studies. The study, directed by Bela Balassa, is expected to be completed by December 1973. PATTERNS OF DEMAND AND SAVINGS IN THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: RPO 203 Development Research Center This study analyzes how savings and consumer expenditures change in response to changes in income l~vels, income distribution, the struc- ture of prices, and socio-demographic variables. During the first phase, a theoretical framework for the study has been developed, integrating the savings function with the theory of consumer behavior. This theoretical framework, the Extended Linear Expenditure Systems (ELES), pennits econometric estimation of com- plete systems of demand equations and their associated aggregate con- sumption functions. Empirical applications so far undertaken include 14 use of aggregate time series data for a range of countries spanning the development process, and some preliminary work on cross-section household data as well. In the current and final phase, complete s~'stems of demand equa- tions, based on ELES and other systems, are being estimated for differ- ent socio-economic groups using cross-section data on households. Work is proceeding using data from Mexico and South Korea-the Mexi- can component of the analysis is a joint venture with Secretaria de la Presidencia, Mexico. Applications to several other countries are being planned. The Income Distribution Division of the Development Research Center is in charge of tllis study, expected to be completed by June 1974. Papers already available include "The Extended Linear Expendi- tLF·e Systems," by Constantino Lluch, which has appeared in the Euro- pean Economic Review, Vol. IV, No. 1, 1973. MULTI"LEVEL PLANNING, CASE STUDIES . IN NORY COAST: RPO 204 Development Research Center This study on Ivory Coast employs a set of dynamic programs to analyze policy options for the economy. It incorporates linkages be- tween projects, sectors and the total economy as well as between re- gions and between rural and urban areas. Several dynamic linear programs have been constructed, for use both separately and as components of a unified central program. The component models are: A Northern model, covering the problems of agricultural devel- opment in the Savannah zone, a Southwestern model, covering the problems of colonization in the forest area, a Southern model, covering the entire forest zone of the country, an Education model, linking lab ~r requirement to supply by skill categories, an Urban model, consisting of fifty-five sectors. The central model is a simplified combination of these separate models, together with additional public sector relationships. It solves for the optimal convex combinations of the policy vectors subject to alternative saving and foreign lending constraints. The utility maximiza- tion objective is represented in an additively separable form. The study should be al. ailable by March 1974. It is being directed by Louis Goreux of the Development Research Center. A paper by 15 Rene Vaurs, Louis Goreux and Apostolos Condos on "Agricultural Model from the Ivory Coast Programming Study," is already available as Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 125, March 1972. CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS OF 'ffiE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS: RPO 205 Office of the Vice President, Development Policy and Economic Analysis and Projections J?epartment This study explores the problems of comparative analysis of the economic development process. It attempts to provide a uniform analy- sis of the principal changes in economic structure that are needed to sustain economic growth, focusing on the major aspects of resource mobilization and allocation which are of primary interest for economic policy. It is based on the earlier work qf Hollis B. Che!lery and others on the comparative nature of the development process, taking advantage of the much wider availability of data at present. Research is being con- ducted in conjun~;tion with the continuing development of the Eco- nomic and Social Data Bank in the IBRD. The results of this research are expected to be published in early 1974 as "Patterns of Development, 1950-70," by Hollis B. Chenery and Moise Syrquin (consultant), assisted by Hazel Elkington. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN INFLUENCES UPON INCOME DISTRIBUTION: RPO 206 Development Research Center The project investigates the impact of policy intervention upon jncome distribution in both the short and long run. In the present stage, a comparative analysis is being conducted dealing with South Korea and Yugoslavia. A general equilibrium model has been specified for each country and work on estimation of these models is in progress. The models attempt to link factor price payments through a mechanism translating these into the personal distribution of income to the consumer demand patterns and output prices. The models are partly neoclassical with strong elements of disequilibrium behavior in the specification of their dynamic properties. Empirical results from these models will be re- viewed during the current year and the study is expected to be com- pleted by September 1974. 16  The Income Distribution Division of the Development Research Center is the responsible unit. Consultants are Irma Adelman, Sherman Robinson and Laura D'Andrea Tyson. Il'iTERNATIONAL MODEL: RPO 207 Development Research Center The project proposes to develop a framework for analyzing inter- country linkages through international capital and commodity markets. It focuses on competition among developing countries in export mar- kets and on the allocation of aid among them. The method consists of constructing a two-level linear programming model for 1980. The lower level characterizes the relations within coun- tries; the upper level characterizes the international commodities and capitru markets. National return is defined in relation to the GDP of the country concerned. International return is defined in relation to a weighted average of country's GDP, using alternative weighting systems. The model can be used to measure trade-offs between national and international returns for various types of project (or program) lending and changes in trade policies. The study has been carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the world was divided into three groups (one for developed countries and two for developing). In the second stage of the study, the number of country types and the number of commodities has been increased so as to provide a more realistic picture of the world economy. The study has been undertaken by Jean Waelbroeck (consultant) and will soon be available for distribution. Bela Balassa is monitoring the project. PROJECT APPRAISAL AND SHADOW PRICES: RPO 208 Development Research Center The purpose of this project is to investigate several important issues in the area of project evaluation. These include the consistent estima- tion of shadow prices, the implications for shadow prices of fiscal con- straints, and policy environment, income distribution objectives, and project evaluation under economies of scale. Several papers on these issues are currently under preparation. They relate to: Simultaneous derivation of shadow prices for unskilled labor, capital and foreign exchange in terms of a small economy-wide model with limited estimation requirements; 17  The theoretical and practical1ssues involved in the use of fiscal devices to make private market-based decisions correspond to shadow-price-based decisions, in the presence of fiscal con- straints; A theoretically acceptable way of incorporating income distri- butional objectives in project appraisal; The development of practical methods of project evaluation under economies of scale. The research is being carried out by staff members of the Develop- ment Research Center and the Development Economics Department, under the supervision of a steering committee consisting of Herman van der Tak, Bela Balassa and Jean Baneth. Consultants to this project are Peter Diamond, Richard Eckaus, Deepak Lal, Alan Manne, James Mirrlees, Ross Parish !!nd Larry Westphal. The following papers are available: "Adjustment for Trade Distortion in Project Analysis," D. Lal, Bank Staff Working Paper, No . .128, March 1972. "Employment, Income Distribution and Poverty Redressal Index," D. Lal, Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 129, March 1972. Also published in Journal of World Development. "Estjmating the Shadow Price of Foreign Exchange in Project Ap- praisal," Bela Balassa, Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 142, February 1973. "On the Social Rate of Discount and Price of Capital in Cost- Benefit Analysis," C. Blitzer, Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 144, February 1973. SURVEY OF ECONOMY-WIDE PLANNING MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS: RPO 210 Development Research Center Various kinds of macroeconomic plannjng models have been built during the past fifteen years for application in dev~loping countries. Although recent models have been more sophisticated, more disaggre- gated, and more expensive to compute, it is not clear that the results of these exercises have been worth the costs. This project seeks to shed light on this issue-what can be said, after reviewing past experience and current knowledge, about the use of various types of macroeconomic modelling as an aid to development planning and decision making. The output of the project will be a volume composed of a series of closely integrated review papers on different aspects of economy-wide planning. The emphasis throughout will be Oil r>;\lltisector and medium- term approaches rather than on aggregate or short-term stabilization 18 I .'models. l'he volume will be divided into three sections broadiy covering .:the planning environment with foreign trade, and specification issues ·such as those connected with regionalization and economies of scale. The review papers for the volume will be written by Bank staff and consultants. The consultants pmiicipating are Michael Bruno, Mrinal Datta-Chaudhuri, Janes Komoi, T.N. Srinivasan, Lance Taylor, Taro Watanabe and Larry Westphal. The papers are expected to be com- pl'eted by the end of 1973. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON PROJECT: RPO 268 Economic Analysis & Projections Department This study is designed to provide detailed comparisons of national products, by main expenditure categories, in terms of relative quantities and relative prices. It uses a more refined version of the methodology developed in earlier studies by Gilbert and Kravis, and by Gilbert and Associates. The data collection involves getting comparable prices for about 1,000 individual commodities and comparable expenditure data for 160 expenditure groups in each country. Bulk of the data collection is being done by the government statistical offices in each participating country. The study has so far covered Colombia, India and Kenya, as well as France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The coverage is being extended to include another six develop- ing countries. The project, under the direction of Irving Kravis, is being carried out jointly by a team from the University of Pennsylvania and th~ United Nations Statistical Office. Zoltan Kenessey of the UNSO is As- sociate Director. John Edelman and Elinor Yudin are the Bank staff members involved. GROWTH AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL: RPO 269 Development Research Center This study seeks to examine the direct and indirect impact of policy instruments on growth and income distribution in Brazil, in terms of a general equilibrium model. This model will specify and integrate pro- duction relationships, links between factor payments and personal in- come distribution and expenditure patterns. The research is being carried out by the Development Planning Division of the Developm~nt Research Center, in collaboration with Lance Taylor (consultant) and the economic research group of the 19 Federal University of Brasilia. Edmar Bacha and Francisco Lopez of the Federal University are major participants in the study. Final results are expected in 1974. ANALYSIS OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION: RPO 27 4 Development Research Center This study will compare the structure and distribution of family incomes and expenditures in several Latin American countries, and ex- piore the nature and causes of observed differences between and within countries. The study will include a uniform set of estimates for aU countries, including average budget shares and elasticities. The research is being conducted by research institutes participating in the ECIEL Program (Estudios Conjuntos Sobre Integraci6n Econ6- mica Latino Americana). The Income Distribution Division of the De- velopment Research Center is the responsible unit. EVALUATION OF LATIN AMERICA DATA ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION: RPO 283 Development Research Center This joint research project between the Bank and the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) is aimed at examining available data on income distribution in Latin America to which ECLA has ac- cess. The data consists of twenty-five national surveys of household incomes for about twelve countries. The main object of the first stage is to prepare multiple tabulations of the data, accompanied by statements of its basic characteristics so as to asse~s comparability between countries. Appropriate "control de- vices" will be developed for each country to check the consistency of the survey data with national accounts data on personal income and its components (wages, profits, etc.) and with population and employment data. In the second stage, the analysis of income distribution data will be extended to include other data sources, and methods will be devel- oped for comparing income distribution data from household surveys with other primary data relating to income distribution, e.g. income tax data, social security data and data from agricultural and industrial cen- suses. Finally, detailed case studies may be undertaken to relate the size distribution of income to the functional distribution within sectors and to the sectoral patterns of production and growth. The research is being conducted by Oscar Altimir (consultant) and ECLA staff in Santiago, Chile. The Income Distribution Division of the Development Research Center is the responsible unit. 20  GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT AND THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME: RPO 284 Dev t :'Jffient Research Center The objective of the study is to analyze the relationship between economic growth, governmental policies, and income distribution in Taiwan, the Philippines and Kenya. The impact of various government policies on particular sectors will be examined in detail. The sectoral categoiies to be used will include a subsistence sector, a cash crop producing sector, a sector producing handicrafts and other non-agricultural sector, a small and medium scale industrial sector, and a service sector. A foreign trade sector will also be included to allow for movements of capital and technology in the analysis. The research is being conducted by Gus Ranis and John Fei of the Yale Growth Center as the principal researchers. The Income Distribu- tion Division of the Development Research Center is monitoring this project. URBAN INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LATIN AMERICA: RPO 285 Development Research Center This project will examine the nature of income distribution in eigh- teen major urban areas in ten Latin American countries. It will be based on household data generated for these areas during an earlier study by Estudios Conjuntos Sobre Integraci6n Econ6mica Latino Americana (ECIEL). The re.search is being carried out by the participating institutes of the ECIEL program. The Income Distribution Division of the Develop- ment Research Center is involved in the design of the study through participation in the ECIEL seminars and contact with the Brookings Institution. A first draft is expected by June 1975. PROTOTYPE MODELS FOR COUNTRY ANALYSIS: RPO 286 Development Research Center and Economic Analysis and Projections Department This study is intended to improve country modeling methodologies for the analysis of a range of problems relevant to policy and opera- 21 tional decisions, such as the effects of alternative development strate- gies on employment creation, income distribution and the reduction of regional disparities. The first stage, recently initiated, will focus on the preliminary evaluation of alternative methodologicai approaches and of data re- quirements. Pilot case studits are contemplated in the second stage. It is intended that the set of models constructed for different coun- tries will have a common core, with built-in capability to incorporate additional sets of equations or modules reflecting the degree of disag- gregation available or required for particular countries, the data base and the need for analysis of partkular problems. The models also would be constructed so as to use data additional to the national accounts data traditionally used in country-wide econometric models. Several staff members, and consultants, will be participating in this study under the general guidance of Hollis B. Chenery. EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN MALAYSIA: RPO 294 Development Research Center This project will study employment and income distribution in Ma- laysia, using extensions of input-output models to simulate employ- ment and distribution related variables. The employment impacts of alternative structural changes (choice bt;!tween sectors) in the medium term will be examined and consistent long-term projections of employ- ment wm also be attempted. It is also intended to analyze the resource use implications of the patterns of consumption demands generated by alternative income distributions, as well as the income distribution im- plied by alternative sector strategies. The first stage of the study consists of constructing sectoral labor- input coefficients, by skill and wage levels, corresponding to the sec- toral breakdown of the recent input-output table for Malaysia. Both published and unpublished wurces of data are being tapped for this purpose, but it may be necessary to undertake selective sampling of firms in those sectors for which employment data are unreliable. The project is being conducted by the Income Distribution Division of the Development R~search Center, and a first draft is expected by January 197 4. 22  II. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE INTERRELATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA IN THE SEVENTIES: RPO 279 Asia Regional Office This study will pro ride a consistent framework for the analysis and projections of trade be ween Japan and other Asian economies during the 1970s. The projecti4ns will take a.;count of the probable changes in the Japanese industrial structure and import demand due to changing international comparative advantage. The study is being undertaken by Saburo Okita and his associates in the International Development Center of Japan in consultation with Bank staff members. Mr. Rudolf Hablu tzel is the staff member responsi- ble. The final report is expected in December 1974. COMP ARATNE ANALYSIS OF RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN COCOA PRODUCTION: RPO 281 Economic Analysis and Projections Department This study will analyze the relative advantages of expanding cocoa production in selected major cocoa producing countries in West Africa and elsewhere. Investment opportunities in alternative crops and timber will be identified and compared, in terms of social profitability, with investments in coGoa. The Commodities and Export Projections Division will carry out this study, in association with Tetteh Kofi and Scott Pearson (consultants). 23  III. AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT REAPPRAISAL OF CREDITS FOR FINANCING FARM MECHANIZATION IN PAKISTAN: RPO 212 Development Economics Department The study reappraises the impact of the IDA credits that have been granted to the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan for financing farm mechanization-mainly tractors. The objectives of the study are to compare expectations with subsequent developments of project bene- tits and to assess the financial and economic benefits from mechaniza- tion in Pakistan. Data were collected in 1969 from a random sample of some two hundred farmers who had received loans to purchase tractors. Financial and economic benefits achieved from the credits are being calculated for comparison with earlier estimates. The impact of the tractors on income, yields, fertilizer and other input use, cropping pattern and intensity, labor employment, credit use and tenurial arrangements are being examined. The rural Development Division is undertaking this research, in col- laboration with a consultant and the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan in Karachi in this research. The final report is expected by the end of 1973. EVALUATION OF METHODS FOR SPECIFYING AGRICULTURAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES - BRAZIL AND PORTUGAL CASE STUDIES: RPO 213 Agriculture Department This study seeks to improve methods for defining integrated agricul- tural development strategies, on the basis of case studies in Brazil and Portugal. A regional programming model for the agriculture sector in each country has been tested, and is being applied to produce informa- tion on such aspects as efficient production patterns, levels of prices and consumption, foreign trade in agricultural commodities and em- ployment and income levels in the sector. 24  The models permit evaluation of alternative d~velopment projects, such as forestry, irrigation, livestock, farm mechanization and the intro- duction of improved farm production practices. The basic disaggregated models are costly to operate, however, and the study is exploring the desirability of more aggregated models and the ways of dealing with the resulting aggregation bias. The Center for Agricultural Economic Studies of the Gulbenkian Foundation in Oerias, Portugal and the Institute for Economic and Social Planning in the Ministry of Planning and General Coordination in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, are collaborating in this research. It is expected to be completed by December 1973. AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION IN INDIA: RPO 214 Agriculture Department This study measures the effects of tractors and tractor-drawn imple- ments, on-farm and off-farm employment and output in two states of India, Punjab and Gujarat. The principal objective is to test the validity of the hypothesis that investments in tractors earn a high return and do not displace farm labor under present conditions in these parts of India. The secondar; objectives are to test a number of hypotheses concerning the ways in w.bich tractors affect yields, cropping patterns and cropping intensity. The data required to support these analyses are being collected from about six hundred farms in Punjab and Gujarat. Some of these use tractors and modern implements. The remainder rely on bullocks and more traditional implements. A team from the Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, led by A.S. Kahlon, and a team from the Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad), led by D.K. Desai, are carrying out the study in associa- tion with Bank staff. Final reports are expected by the end of 1974. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN MEXICO: RPO 216 Development Research Center This project follows the analysis of the agricultural sector model for Mexico, included in the Bank study on Multi-level Planning: Case Stud- ies in Mexico (edited by Louis Goreux and Alan Manne), published by the North-Holland Publishing Company, 1973. It constitutes further applications of the model, in collaboration with Mexican specialists, and involves also some additional methodological explorations. 25  The model allows the simulation of the impact of alternative uses of policy instruments, such as price supports, tariffs, input subsidies, ex" port incentives and interest rates. The variables affected by the policy instruments include income levels and distribution in agriculture, 1 eign trade, production pattern by crop and locale, domestic prices h. J. non-supported crops, anJ annual and seasonal employment of farmers and hired labor. The applications involve both extensions of the original model and construction of new companion models. The additional coverage of the study permits an analysis of labor absorption possibilities in nonirri- gated agriculture. A team from the Ministry of the PreBidency in Mexico, led by L. Solis, is working on this study with Roger Norton, a staff member stationed in Mexico, and John Duloy of the Development Research Center. The project should be completed by June 1974. RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: RPO 218 Development Economics Department The study G;~plores the major elements jnvolved in promoting the goals of :rural development, on the basis of a review of a number of projects in sub-Saharan Africa. It should improve the basis for designing rural development projects in varying circumstances. Seven projects are being reviewed in depth to assess the size and distribution of the economic benefits from the projects, the extent of participation of different socio-economic classes and the role of institu- tions in the project's performance. These include the Lilongwe Land Settlement Project in Malawi, the subject of a more extended study (see below), the Sukumaland Cotton-Credit Program in Tanzania, a livestock ranging project in Kenya and the Minimum Package Program in Ethiopia. In addition, partial reviews are being undertaken for six projects which have either been extensively evaluated previously or are' too new to permit a full evaluation. These include the French Technical Assis- tance Projects in West Africa, the Smallholder Tea Project in Kenya and the Ujamaas in Tanzania. The research is being undertaken in the Rural Development Divi- sion, in collaboration with staff from universities and government agen- cies in Africa, France, the United Kingdom and the United States. The final report is due in 1973. 16  RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND SMALL SCALE AGRICULTURE IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL: RPO 273 Development Research Center This study on rural development in Northeastern Brazil has the following major research objectives: (a) to analyze at the microeconomic level the restrictions that pre- vent resources from being channeled to the rural poor; (b) to evaluate the efficiency of fanns of different sizes and tenure arrangements under various technological, geographic and eco- logical conditions; (c) to provide an adequate data base to help the identification and implementation of rural development projects. The methodology proposed is to combine existing census and spe- cial studies with an extensive rural survey of the Northeast. The analysis will attempt to provide a reasonably complete picture of the tenure systems, farm sizes, farm organization and decision making process, and the technical alternatives and operating costs of various farm types in a set of subregions in Northeast. A planning framework will be developed using econometric and programming techniques. The first phase of the project places primary emphasis on !mple- menting the farm survey and processing and tabulating the results. Sub- stantial effort is being undertaken to ensure that the ~ampling proce- dures will permit generalizations to the entire Northeast and that the highly diversified physiographic characteristics and product/market ori- entations are covered. Consequently, special pre-coding procedures and data processing routines are being developed to assist in rapid attain- ment of usable results. Theoretical work is also being done on farm level and microregion models which will provide a framework for study- ing objectives (a) and (b) above. TI1e project has been developed as a collaborative scheme with the Federal Ministry of Planning, the Superintendencia do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste (SUDENE), and the Federal University of Pernambuco. Quirino Paris and Lee Bettis (consultants) will participate in the first phase, along with a team of Bank staff members. The Development Planning Division of the Development Research Center is responsible for this project. 27  COMPARATIVE EXPERIENCE WITH LAND REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA: RPO 280 Development Economics Department The study will assess how land reform can assist in reaching simul- taneously the basic development goal of raising output, achieving a more equitable distribution of income and creating employment oppor- tunities. It will review the experience with a variety of land reform approaches and programs in fi•re Latin American cour'.tries: Bolivia, Chile; Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. These countries have been selected because they have undertaken large-scale reforms, an analysis of which should provide important insights into the process of land redistribu- tion, the problems it raises and the lessons to be drawn from its imple- mentation. The study is being undertaken in the Rural Development Division, in collaboration with consultants. The final report is expected by June 1974. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES FOR SMALLHOLDER _ AGRICULTURE: A CASE STUDY IN YUGOSLAVIA: RPO 289 Development Economics Department This new study will analyze the effects on smallholder agriculture of institutional arrangements, government policies and socio-economic conditions in Yugoslavia. The experience in three regions of Serbia, in different stages of development, will be examined. The study will be undertaken by the Rural Development Division of the Development Economics Department, in collaboration with various institutions in Yugoslavia. Completion is expected by August 1974. EVALUATION OF THE LILONGWE LAND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM: RPO 293 Development Economics Dc!partment The Lilongwe Land Development Project in Malawi has been re- viewed as part of the study on Rural Development in Africa. This study is intended to examine in greater detail the benefits accruing from the project and its distribution between various socio-economic groups, with special emphasis on the role of the delivery systems used. The study is being carried out in the Rural Development Division, with the participation of Bill H. Kinsey and Robert Reader (consul- tants). It will be completed by February 1974. 28  IV. INDUSTRY THE SCOPE FOR CAPITAL-LABOR SUBSTITUTION IN THE MECHANICAL ENGINEERING INDUSTRY: RPO 223 Development Research Center This study investigates the scope for capital-labor substitution in the mechanical engineering industry and the substitution possibilities between loca1ly produced and imported mechanical engineering prod- ucts. The project is related to the work of the studies on the mechanical engineering industry included in the Programming in the Manufacturing Sector Study (see below) which demonstrate the feasibility of imple- menting a numerically solvable model for planning in this sector. The present study extends this methodology to permit specification of alter- native production techniques and incorporation of quality differences. Tht study is divided in two related parts. One is concerned with product differentiation in mechanical engineerir..g products. The focus of this part is the identification of the major factors which resulted in the coexistence of a wide spectrum of different qualities (imported and domestically produced) of mechanical engineering products in develop- ing countries. The other part of the study is concerned with alternative production techniques of producing selected mechanical engineering products for given product specifications. It focuses on the analysis of the sensitivity of the optimal technique to such elements as factor prices, economies of scale, joint production and output mix, the se- quential nature of production, and the degree of capacity utilization. The research is being carried out in the Special Topics Division in collaboration with Larry Westphal (consultant) and the Korean Insti- tute of Science Technology. Completion is expected by December 1973. PROGRAMMING IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR: RPO 224 Development Research Center This research project consists of several studies concerned with in- vestment planning in the manufacturing sector, using mathematical pro- gramming techniques. 29  The first stage of th.i!) project is nearly complete. It consists of three studies: (1) an analysis of the optimal investment pattern for the fertil- izer industry in the East African Community, (2) a study of two large firms in Mexico, producing heavy electrical equipment, and (3) a study on macro-planning in the mechanical engineering sector in Korea. These studies are in process of being prepared for publication as Industrial Planning With Economies of Scale (edited by Ardy Stoutjesdijk and Larry Westphal). The second phase of the project concerns multi-country investment planning for the West African region and the development of new mixed-integer solution procedures. Extending the methodology for the East African fertilizer study, multi-country investment planning models will be developed for the steel industry, the forestry/forest industry sector, the cement industry, and the energy sector. New mixed-integer solution procedures will be developed in collaboration with Glen Mar- tin, in order to provide an efficient tool for solving these and similar large scale models. An operational manual on process analysis will also be prepared for use in project evaluation. The Special Topics Division is carrying out this research in collabo- ration with Dermot Gately, David Kendrick and Larry Westphal (con- sultants). It is expected to be '-Ompleted by June 1974. INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES: RPO 225 Industrial Projects Department The objective of this study is to examine the constraints on greater utilization of industrial capacity in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. It focuses, in particular, on the problems of in- creasing the number of shifts per day in the manufacturing sectors in these countries, including establishments of different sizes. The study is being directed by Paul N. Rosenstein-Rodan and Daniel Schydlowsky of the Center of Latin American Development Studies at Boston University, in collaboration with several public agen- cies in the countries concerned. Frederick Moore of the Industrial Proj- ects Dep(.l.rtment is the responsible Bank staff member for this project. The final report on the current phase of the study is expected in early 1974. FINANCING OF SMALL-SCALE INDUSTRY: RPO 277 Development Economics Department This project is intended to study the operational aspects of finan- dng small scale industries and to examine the most appropriate lending and organizational measures that the Bank may consider to facilitate the growth of the small scale industrial sector. The basis for this study will be a survey of the programs of promoting small scale industries in several countries to be chosen on the basis of their experience in this area. The Economics of Industry Division is executing the study, in col- laboration with David Kochav and Nurit Wahl (consultants). The study is expected to be completed by March 197 4. INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN WEST AFRICA: RPO 287 Development Research Center This study will evaluate the prospects for economic growth and industrial development under alternative policies, including economic integration, in four countries in Western Africa. The countries are Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mali and Senegal. It wil1 analyze the incentive systems of these countries as they affect individual industries, exports and import S';lbstitution, domestic ar1d foreign investment, as well as the ~ ze of industrial firms. The incentive measures applied will be quantified and their joint effects on particular activities estimated. Information on incentives "'ill be supple- mented by data on major firms and industries to indicate their compar- ative cost positions among those four countries and in relation to other countries. Finally, the growth prospects of the individual countries will be appraised under alternative policies, including import substitution in a national framework, extra-area exports, and incmased intraregional trade. The study, led by Bela Balassa of the Develvpmeni Research Cen- ter, involves participation bv staff members from the Development Eco- nomics Department and gerJeral support from the Africa Regional Of- fice. Collaboration with institutions in the countries concerned is being arranged. INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN MALAYSIA: RPO 295 Development Economics Department This study will analyze the undnrutilization of fixed capital in the Malaysian manufacturing industry. It will be based on direct interviews on two hundred industrial plants covering four selected industries. The study will be carried out in the Economics of Industry Divi- sion, in association with David Lim and Gordon Winston (consultants). It is expected to be completed by June 1974. 31  V. TRANSPORTATION SUBSTITUTION OF LABOR AND EQUIPMENT IN ROAD AND CIVIL WORKS CONSTRUCTION- PHASE II: RPO 226 Transportation Department This study attempts to establish the technical feasibility of alterna- tive civil construction technologies involving different combinations of labor and equipment and to relate these technically feasible solutions to relative factor scarcities so that the economically optimum solution can be determined in any given case. The costs of delay in project execution are included in the analyses as well as the interrelationships between choice of technology and project design. Practical problems in the or- ganization and management of construction projects and measures available to insure the choice and successful use of the most appropriate technologies are also being examined. The first phase of the study, completed in October 1971, estab- lished the teclmical feasibility of factor substitution for a wide range of construction activities. Specific physical, social and managerial parame- ters were found to be of critical importance in explaining the wide variation in productivity rates of labor and equipment. The second phase, to be completed in October 1973, focused on direct field obser- vations on several road, dam and irrigation canal construction sites in India, Indonesia and Nepal. In Indonesia, a study of the effect of health and nutrition standards on. productivity is also in progress. Concur- rently with these field studies, mat]v~matical models are being devel- oped to permit the comparison of construction alternatives in more realistic terms than possible with the use of aggregate concepts of labor and equipment. The third and final phase of the study will focus on the develop- ment of intermediate technologies and adaptation of project design to accommodate the appropriate technology. These investigations will per- mit the determination of the economically optimum techniques, vary- ing with relative factor prices and factor productivities under different conditions. The study is being conducted in association with consulting firms and with cooperation and participation of national agencies in the countries concerned. 32  HIGHWAY DESIGN STUDY- PHASE II: RPO 227 Transportation Department The Highway Design Study analyzes cost trade-offs for designing highways with low volume traffic. The work already completed in Phase I of the program provides a methodological framework and a prototype simulation model delineating the underlying engineering rela- tionships among construction standards, maintenance standards, and vehicle operating costs. (Bank Staff Working Paper No. 96, January 1971, "Highway Design ~tudy, Phase I: the Model.") Further develop- ment and implementation of tllis model has been sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Agency for International Development. The first phase of the study concluded that sound empirical e"i- dence is lacking for many of the technical relationships necessary for the determination of optimal design standards for low volume roads. Phase II, therefore, focuses on collection of primary data on these relationshlps. The field studies involve a survey among transport firms and experimental measurements to establish vehicle operating costs as a function of road geometries and surface conditions, and measurements of the relationship of road deterioration and maintenance costs to de- sign standards, maintenance standards, construction materials, traffic usage and climate. Results from these studies will provide a basis for project analysis under different conditions of terrain, geology and climate. For executing the field studies in Kenya, the World Bank is collabo- rating with the U.K. Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL). A team of six TRRL engineers and thirty local staff working in Kenya with the cooperation of the Ministry of Works completed two years of field studies in July 1973, and analyses of the results are currently under way. A final report is expected in June 1974. A small TRRL team remains in Kenya to continue long term observations of pavement deterioration and conduct experiments on alternative pavement designs in collaboration with the Ministry of Works. Parallel studies are being planned for Brazil and India. MEASUREMENT OF ROAD WIDTH, TRAFFIC FLOW, VEIDCLE SPEED RELATIONSHIPS: RPO 228 Transportation Department The project examines the influences of lane and shoulder width of roads on the relationships between speed and traffic flow. This will help determine the optimal width of highways and thus supplement the 33 work being undertaken for the Highway Design Standards Study. It is also designed to foster development of institutional capacity for re- search in the developing countries. An initial study in Kenya by the University of Nairobi has focused on the effect of road width on vehicle speeds under free flowing traffic conditions. Data on the composition of traffic and road characteristics has been collected by field observation teams at several points on the Kenya highway network. Multiple regression analyses are being per- formed to determine vehicle speed relationships as a function of road and shoulder width, traffic composition and volume. The final report on the Kenya study is expected to be completed in September 1973. Similar studies may be undertaken in India and Brazil in conjunction with the Highway Design Standards Study, focusing on the traffic composition and volume ranges of importance in those countries. FEEDER ROADS IN YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC: RPO 229 Transportation Department This study is the first in a planned series of projects in an effort to build up a dossier of documented cases of rural development projects involving feeder roads. It is designed to yield empirical data on the relative importance of the operationally significant variables in the de- velopment of hitherto largely subsistence-orlented local economies. Specifically, it investigates the interrelationships between agricultural production and different levels of transportation and agricultural investments. The study areas are two regions of considerable agricultural poten- tial in the Yemen Arab Republic: Taiz-Turba and Wadi Mawr. Research consists primarily of a series of regional surveys of specified sub-areas, within the area of influence of a Bank-financed road project, before, during and after construction of the road. The purpose is to develop formulas relating the net value of agriculture production to varying levels of total investment in the study area, taking into consideration relevant socio-economic, demographic and environmental factors. The initial surveys concentrate on collecting and analyzing data on land use, agricultural production costs, transportation characteristics and costs, local markets and their structure, demographic and labor force charac- teristics and other factors such as climate, geography and geology. Follow-up surveys during construction and after completion of the road will monitor changes occurring in those areas and attempt to relate these to transportation investment. 34  The Research Division of the Transportation Department is carrying out the study in collaboration with a research team consisting of grad- uate students and their advisers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich and Yemeni counterparts from the Central Plan- ning Organization in the Yemen Arab Republic. Interview survey data collection for the base-line study of the Taiz-Turba road is substantially completed; aerial photo interpretation for determination of overall land-use patterns in the road-influenced area is being prepared and addi- tional traffic counts are planned. The base-line survey for the Wadi Mawr area will be undertaken between October 1973-January 1974. COMPILATION OF IDGHWAY DESIGN STANDARDS USED IN PAST BANK PROJECTS: RPO 232 Transportation Department This study reviews the highway design standards of road construc- tion projects in developing countries. It should indicate to highway authorities in developing countries a reasonable order of highway design standards for roads carrying various volumes of traffic. The project is primarily a desk review to examine all Bank apprais- als of highway construction proposals since 1960. The purpose is to identify design standards for roads built to carry different volumes of traffic and to establish common patterns for similar roads. About one hundred and sixty highway projects in seventy-five different countries will be reviewed. When it is completed, the study will update a similar IBRD compilation prepared in 1957, A Guide to Highway Design Standards. The project is being executed by Bank staff with the participation of the Federal Highway Administration of the United States Depart- ment of Transportation. 'The final report is expected in December 1973. FEEDER ROADS IN ETIDOPIA: RPO 271 Transportation Department This study, parallel to the study on Feeder Roads in Yemen Arab Republic (see above), is concerned with the Agaro-Chira road in the rich coffee growing area southwest of Jimma, Ethiopia. The iOad is expected to open up an area to settlement and more systematic cultiva- tion, where hitherto only wild-growing coffee has been exploited. The fieldwork for the baseline survey has been carried out by a team from the Institute of Development Research at the Haile Selassie I University in Addis Ababa between December 1972 and Aprill973. In subsequent Phases of the study, it is envisaged to monitor two or more additional feeder road projects in the highlands where subsistence agri- culture predominates. 35  VI. PUBLIC UTILITIES PROPERTY VALUES AND WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS: RPO 236 Public Utilities Department The objective of this study is to measure the increase in property values following the provisions of water supply and sewerage facilities and to define the extent to which they may represent the benefits from such provisions. The fmdings from this study should be used for devel- oping a method for project benefit evaluation and for determining pric- ing policies for water and sewerage investments. Empirical tests are being carried out in two cities, Nairobi and Kuala Lumpur, to indicate the magnitude of the benefits obtained as a result of water supply and sewerage investments. To reflect accurately the real increases in property values, only land sold at least twice (once before and once after the improvements were made) is included in the study. Data are collected and evaluated for items directly or indirectly influencing property values over a ten- to fifteen-year period. These incluce plot area, land tenure, foundation coverage of housing, locally estimated property valuation, sales value, sewer project costs, etc. This study is nearly complete and a final report should be available by October 1973. It is being carried out by Roy Bahl (consultant), in association with Bank staff members. ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS AND ISSUES .iN VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION: RPO 238 Public Utilities Department The purpose of the study is to develop criteria for evaluating the scale and composition of village electrification programs. The research is intended to identify and measure the social costs and benefits, in the broadest sense of economic development, of these programs. Using a broad sample of villages in El Salvador, the study will investigate the effects of providing electricity on agricultural and village industrial output, employment, wages and consumption patterns, social development and migration from rural to urban areas. In addition, the importance of electricity will be examined in relation to infrastructure 36 projects, such as water supplies, schools and feeder roads, and support programs for rural industries and agriculture. Finally, the costs and benefits of building up local manufacturing capacity for concrete poles, cement, and small electrical equipment will be studied. The study is being conducted in association with a team from the Catholic University of El Salvador, and with the cooperation of Comi- si6n Ejecutiva del Rio Lempa. It should be completed by early 1974. PRICING AND INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: RPO 239 Public Utilities Department This study s~eks to analyze investment and pricing criteria applica- ble to electric power projects. The analysis deals with the problems of determining least cost investment programs for given levels of output as well as the pricing and investment rules relevant in the more general case in whkh the optimum supply level has to be determined. A case study using linear programming has been completed for Turkey. It studied the optimal investment program over a 35-year pe- riod and the associated optimum operating schedules. To test results, fifty sensitivities were run with varying data for shadow pnces of capi- tal, labor and foreign exchange; changes in capital and operating costs; changes in demand forecasts; changes in resource availability; and changes in a number of other economic and teclmological parameters. The computer printouts plot optimal investment and output patterns for various types of investments (nuclear, fossil and hydropower) which will minimize total investment and operating costs. Extensions to this work and further case studies are being considered. The research on optimum pricing extends peak-load pricing theory to include the effects of random changes in demand and supply condi- tions. Various problems, such as those connected with seasonality, indi- visibility, choice of metering and tariff types, are also being studied. Case studies on pricing have been undertaken in Sudan and Tunisia and another one is being planned. The research is being carried out in collaboration with Ralph Tur- vey (consultant). It is expected to be completed by June 1974. Several papers are available on request, including the "Optimum Development of the Electric Power Sector in Turkey - A Case Study in Linear Programming," by Dennis Anderson and Orhan Tarkan (consultant), Bank Staff Working Paper No. 126, 126A, February-March 1972. A paper on "Models for Determining Least-Cost Investments in Electricity Supply," by Dennis Anderson, appeared in the Bell Journal of Econom- ics and Management Science, Vol 3, No. 1, Spring 1972. 37  STANDARDS OF RELIABILITY OF URBAN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: RPO 267 Public Utilities Department This study will explore the possibilities of reductions in the cost of urban electricity distribution in developing countries without reducing the benei'lts of supply to the consumers. It will provide guidelines for assessing the standards of l:upply most appropriate to the prevailing condition in developing countries. . The first stage of this research is being initiated and will be carried out by members of the Public Utilities Department in association with the Overseas Consultancy Service, London. PRICING AND INVESTMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS: RPO 276 Public Utilities Department The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for the economic appraisal of telecommunications projects, focusing on the criteria for investment decisions and the determination of the tariff structure. It will be based on a d~tailed analysis of the cost structure of providing telecommunication services, including services to rural area consumers. The effect of alternative objective functions on the pricing criteria will be examined. A case study in Central America is being organized. The study will be carried out by Bank staff and consultants, in collaboration with national agencies in the country chos~m. The expected completion date is December 1974. 38 VII. URBANIZATION AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT URBAN DATA NEEDS OF THE IBRD: RPO 241 Development Economics Department This study is intended to develop a framework for a useful compar- ative urban data system, and to assess the feasibility of collecting these data in developing countries. The first phase of the study focused on assessing the data require- ments necessary f-.1r urban analysis through discussions with exp~rts in research institutes, international organizations and national aid-giving agencies. Following tllis, the feasibility of collecting the required data has been checked in four cities. The final report will contain a quantita- tive comparison of various aspects of the four cities studied- Ahmedabad, Kingston, Lima and Seoul. The research has been conducted by Roy Bahl and Elliott Morss (consultants) and members of the Urban and Regional Economics Divi- sion. The final report is expected by December 1973. URBAN PUBLIC FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: RPO 270 Development Economics Department This study is intended to develop a framework for the analysis of the availability and use of financial resource:::. in metropolitan areas of developing countries. On the basis of detailed case studies and their comparative evaluation, it will arrive at judgements concerning the ade- quacy of overall revenue structures and the trade-offs between tax ade- quacy, in an efficiency sense, and tax equity. In tllis way, one may eventually arrive at a series of "normsn for desirable levels of local government taxation, taking account of interjurisdictional flows of re- sources (from national or provincial to municipal governments) and iacome distribution effects of various revenue structures. In the first stage, case studies for eight cities (Ahmedabad, Bogota, Bombay, Cartagena, Jakarta, Kingston, Seoul and possibly Tunis) will be pre pared. The emph,t~is will be on the analysis of the sources of municipal revenues. The equity and allocation effects: of using each 39 revenue source as well as the adequacy, equity, and neutrality aspects of the overall structure will be analyzed. The second stage will assess alternative strategies for financing mu- nicipal developments on the basis of the case studies. The major empha- sis will be placed on the shifting responsibilities between government levels, the growth paten tial of alternative revenue sources, and the in- come distribution effects of differential tax (and other revenue) structures. The research is being conducted by Roy Bahl and Francine Bougeon-Maassen (consultants) and by members of the Urban andRe- gional Economics Division of the Development Economics Department. 40  VIII. POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES LABOR MARKET AND EDUCATION IN MALAYSIA: RPO 243 Development ~konomics Department This project seeks to throw light on the nature and causes of unem- ployment among secondary ~chool-leavers in Malaysia. Together with the research being done on Malaysia (RPO 245, see below) this work Virill produce an overview of the working of the Malaysian labor market as a whole, except for the segment of technical/professional manpower. A byproduct of this project will be an evaluation of the relative cost- effectiveness of vocational, technical, and "academic" secondary education. The first phase of the study, recently started, is a survey by mailed questionnaire of various groups of school-leavers selected from school registrars and Employment Office registrants. The survey ~overs such topics as the school-leavers' job experience, period of waiting, initial and expected ean1ings, nature of job search as well as their family and school background. Results from this survey are expected to be avail- able at the end of 1973. In the second phase, the labor market for school-leavers will be studied to provide information on the employed labor force by skill and educational levels. , This project is being carried out in the Population and Human Resources Division with L. Lourdeswa1ny of the University of Malaya (consultant). Final report is due in October 1974. STUDENT LOAN SCHEMES AND OTHER FOR.t\IS OF COST REALLOCATION: A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO EDUCATION FINANCING: RPO 244 Education Department The purpose of this project is to deal with the problem of escalating educational costs and with the resulting shortage of public funds for education in less developed countries. The main issues faced by these countries in the area of education finance are dealt with and alternative methods, such as student loans or new tax policies, are presented. Th~· 41 possibilities and limitations of the private education sector as a comple- ment to the public education sector are spelled out. The project as a whole is heavily oriented toward the social equity aspects of the financ- ing of education, and emphasizes the effects of educational expendi- tures on the distribution of income. The study includes a number of case studies in Latin American countries. Two studies on Colombia are nearly complete, one dealing with public expenditures on education and the other with student loan schemes. Two additional studies on Brazil and Mexico are in progress. The final report is due by December 1974. It is being carried out largely by Bank staff, with only minor involvement of consultants. A general paper setting forth the main \issues covered by this research project has been issued as "The T-iinancing of Education: Ar ~xamina­ tion of Basic Issues," by Jean-Pierre Jallade, Bank Staff Working Paper No. 157, July 1973. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, INCOME AND UNEMPLOYMENT: RPO 245 Development Economics Department The project seeks to further our understanding of urban labor mar- kets in developing countries, with emphasis on employment and earn- ings in the informal sectors of the labor market in which the underem- ployed and the urban poor are concentrated, and on the relationship between participation rates, individual earnings and family income among households in different sectors of the urban economy. It con- sists of the analysis of recent data from urban surveys in Korea and Malaysia, and a survey of the unorganized sector, being planned for another Asian country. This research is being undertaken in the Population and Human Resources Division. Collaboration with a local university for the third survey is being arrange d. COST EFFECTIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES IN INDUSTRIAL TRAINING: RPO 246 Education Department Concern about the ability of the formal education system to fulfill its role as the main supplier of skilled technical manpower for the economy is hardly new. Many policy-makers have contended private industry is much better equipped to provide the necesSciiY training than schools. The objective of this research is to help decide when and unde1' 42 what circumstances nonformal industdal training, particularly in-plant training, is preferable to the training programs provided by formal train- ing institutions. The project includes a comprehensive review of the literature and the design of a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of non- formal technical training. Due consideration is paid to training objec- tives, target groups, program content, costs and organizational problems. The study is being carried out by a team headed by Manuel Zymel- man at the Graduate School of Education of Harvard University, in close cooperation with the Education Department. The final report is expected in September 1973. RURAL AND URBAN PUBLIC WORKS: RPO 275 Development Economics Department The general objective of the study is to assess public works pro- grams in developing countries as instruments for reducing unemploy- ment and increasing the incomes of target groups within a long term development strategy. Specific research objectives which are viewed as intermediate means to address this broad policy concern include: evalu- ation of economic and social benefits and costs of programs; analysis of the income distribution effects of factor payments and of benefits flow- ing from the assets created; examination of the political motivations in the origin and design of the programs; identification of the most prom- ising organizational, administrative, and financial arrangements; evalua- tion of the potential for urban programs; and examination of the poten- tial role for external assistance. The first phase to be completed by spring J974, will carry out an intercountry comparative analysis of all significant programs in low income countries. Tentative plans for a second phase include intensive analysis of programs in about four countries. The study is being carrierl out by a research team at Harvard Univer- sity consisting of John W. Thomas, Shahid Javed Burki, t~nd David G. Davies. The Population and Human Resources Division is the responsi- ble unit. PROJECT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY- EDUCATION ATTAINMENTS: RPO 278 Education Department This study seeks to develop practical methods for evaluating educa- tion projects during and after project implementation. It is based on an analysis of a number of education projects, partiaJly financed by the 43 Bank Group during the sixties. It emphasizes the many different objec- tives served by education projects. The study is being carried out by a team from the International Institute for Educational Planning, Paris, headed by Neville Postle- thwaite, in close cooperation with the Education Department. The final report is expected in June 1974. THE LABOR MARKET IN A RAPIDLY GROWING URBAN AREA: RPO 290 Development Economics Department The objective of this study is to analyze in depth the characteristics of the labor force in a rapidly expanding urban economy. It will include analyses of the earnings and occupation structure of the urban labor force, the detenninants of the absorption of migrants in the urban labor force, and the nature of the family economy in urban areas. The study will be based on data collected ref'i·.mtly by Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR) in the metro area of Belo Horizonte in Brazil. It will be carried out by members of the staff of CEDEPLAR, in collaboration with the Urban and Regional Econo.rnics Division and the Population and Human Resources Division of the Development Economics Department. THE BENEFITS OF SCHOOLING FOR WORKERS: RPO 291 Development Economics Department The objective of this study is to examine the pure effects of formal schooling on workers using a sample of both blue- and white-collar workers in Tunisia. It wHI focus on the relationship of schooling experi- ence to the measurable benefits in the work place, vis-a-vls workers' promotion, earnings and satisfaction. This study will be carried out in the Population and Human Re- sources Division, in association with Professor Bsais of the University of Tuttis. The study is expected to be completed by June 1974. 44