Iraq - Education Project

RESTRICTED Report No. PE-47 This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specifcy authorized organizations or persons. It may not be publisbed, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept msponsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. INTERNATIONAL BANK POR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION APPRAISAL OF A FIRST EDUCATION PROJECT IN IRAQ May 25, 1972 Education Projects Department  CURREICY EQUIVALITS (official exchange rate) ID1 - US$ 3.04i ID 0.329 - US$ 1.00 MEASURES 2m - 3.28 ft 1 D2 ' 10.76 sq ft 1 km2 - 0.38 sq xi 1 hectare a 2.47 ac - 4 donums Fiscal Years April 1 - March 31  I rAQ APPRAISAL OF AN EDUCATION PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................ i I. INTRODUCTION . .......................................... 1 II. SOCIO-ECONO0IC BACIKGROUND ............................. 1 General Characteristics ......... ...................... 1 Economic Strategy ...................................... 2 Manpower Requirements .......... ....................... 2 Industrial 1anpower . ................................... 3 Agricultural Manpower .......... ....................... 3 III. EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM: CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES AND NEEDS .. ......................... . .... . 4 Primary Education ......................... ... 5 Secondary Education ............................ 5 Technical Secondary Schools ............ .......... 6 Agricultural Secondary Schools ....... ............ 6 Higher Education ................................. 6 Technician Training ......... ..................... 7 Educational Television ....... .................... 7 IV. COST AND FINANCING OF EDUCATION ...... ................. 8 Education Expenditures .......... ...................... 8 Future Education Expenditure ....... ................... 9 V. EDUCATION AND TRAINING STRATEGY ...... ................. 9 VI. THE PROJECT ........................................... 10 General ............................................ 10 Comprehensive Secondary Schools ...... ................. 11 Science Laboratories ............ ...................... 12 Intermediate School Workshop Units ..... ............... 12 Institutes of Technology ......... ..................... 13 Work Training Centers ........... ...................... 13 Agricultural Institutes ......... ...................... 14 Farmer Training Centers ......... ...................... 15 Educational Television .......... ...................... 15 Technical Assistance ............ ...................... 16 Tracer System ......................................... 16 Cost of the Project . .................................. 16  TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page No. VII. IMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENT ...... ................. 19 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMENDATIONS ..... ........... 20 ANNEXES, APPENDICES, CHARTS, MAP APPENDIX NO. I Technical Manpower Requirements II Agricultural 'Manpower Requirements ANNEX NO. 1 Comparative Education Indicators 2 Enrollment by Grades in Government and Private Institutions (1969 - 1970) 3 Education Expenditures by Type of Education, 1969/1970 4 Public Education Expenditures by Category, 1969/70 5 Education Expenditures, GNP and Government Budget, 1965 - 1980 6 Curricula of Comprehensive Secondary Schools 7 Enrollment, Estimated Output and Teacher Requirements of the Project Institutions 3 Technical Assistance Requirermient 9 Summary of Enrollment, Approximate Area of Construction and Estimated Cost of Institutions Included in the Project 10 Comparative Indicators of Project Institutions 11 Contingencies Allowances 12 Project Inmplementation Schedule 13 Estimated Schedule of Disbursements CHART NO. I Structure of the Education System 1971 II Educational Pyramid 1969 - 1970 1M1AP  APPRAISAL OF AN EDUCATION PROJECT IRAQ BASIC DATA 1970 Population (1971) 9.7 millioon Average Population Density 22 per km2 Annual rate of Population Growth 3.2% Literacy 26% Enrollments: Primary Ratio 64fi Secondary Ratio 25 Hi,-her Education Ratio 4.2A Higher Enrollment in Agritetlture and 2ngineerin- 17% Hi,her Graduates per 100,000 &C Expenditures: Public Education ID 62.1 mirlion Private 3ducation ID 3.4 millio.n Total ID 65.5 millior, As a proportion of GNP: 7.1%   APPRAISAL OF AN EDUCATION PROJECT IN IRAQ SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i The education system of Iraq is based on the traditional pattern of six years of primary education, six years of secondary education, divided into three years of intermediate education and three years of preparatory education, followed by university and other post-secondary courses varying in length from two to six years. ii. Considerable educational development in the past decade has led to the attainment of moderately high enrollment ratios. The system is still in- efficient and costly; education planning and management needs improvement. The government is taking steps to remedy these defects. iii. Secondary education is largely oriented toward literary and science courses which account for 84% of the total enrollment while prevocational courses are limited. Rigid boundaries between these disciplines restrict individual choices. The government proposes to develop on an experimental basis comprehensive secondary schools which would increase prevocational options and allow for a more flexible choice of courses. iv. Science teaching at secondary level suffers from a lack of science laboratories; workshops in intermediate schools are inadequate for effective handicraft education. The inadequate application of modern educational tech- nology to school and adult education programs is responsible for further deficiencies in the educational system. Government efforts to improve teach- ing facilities and techniques require support in the form of science labora- tories, workshops and educational television equipment. V. Facilities for training industrial and agricultural technicians are inadequate to meet manpower requirements. The government has decided to expand existing and to open new industrial and agricultural institutes. A serious gap in the vocational training system results from the virtual absence of facilities for practical training of industrial and agricultural workers. To remedy this, Work Training Centers will be established and farmer training wings will be added to existing agricultural secondary schools. vi. The proposed Bank project would assist the government in meeting the needs outlined above by providing the following: (a) four comprehensive secondary schools; (b) one new institute of technology and equipment for an existing institute: (c) five work training centers; (d) two agricultural institutes; (e) twelve science laboratory units to be added to existing secondary schools;  - ii - (f) twenty workshop units to be added to existing intermediate schools; (g) ten farmer training wings to be added to existing agricul- tural secondary schools; (h) educational television equipment and supplies; (i) technical assistance and fellowships. vii. The newly reorganized College of Education would train teachers of academic subjects to staff the proposed schools. Technical assistance would be required to provide specialists for the Basrah Institute of Tech- nology. Using existing facilities, the government would need to organize local training programs for vocational instructors for some of the project schools. viii. An Inter-Ministerial Project Coordinating Committee and a project unit within the Ministry of Education have already been established by a resolution of the Planning Board. The unit would coordinate relations with the government and with private agencies and would provide liaison with the Bank. ix. The total project cost is estimated at US$19.9 million and the foreign exchange component at US$12.9 million. Procurement would be in conformity with the Bank rules regarding international competitive bidding. The government would recruit architectural consultants' services for the project. x. The project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$12.9 million to the Republic of Iraq, equal to the estimated foreign exchange component of the project.  IRAQ APPRAISAL OF AN EDUCATION PROJECT I. INTRODUCTION 1.01 A UNESCO Identification Mission visited the Republic of Iraq in March/April 1970 to identify priority projects for Bank financing. This was followed by two shorter visits in October 1970 and April 1971, to com- plete project identification. In June 1971, a ULESCO Project Preparation Mission assisted the Government in preparing an education project for sub- mission to the Bank. The proposed project was appraised in October/November 1971 by a mission composed of Messrs. T. Terrefe (mission leader, general educator), E. Ferzad (architect), S. Futagami (specialist in educational media), G. F. F. Gayle (agricultural educator), J. C. Jones (technical edu- cator) and B. Thoolen (Economist). 1.02 During appraisal, the proposed project was slightly modified with Government's agreement. A proposed Technical Education Support Center which was largely directed to the printing of texts for a relatively small number of vocational students, was excluded from the project in view of Ministry of Education's planned extension of its central printing facilities. Construc- tion of workshops for the Baghdad Institute of Technology was already under- way with government financing and thus was excluded from the project. Pro- vision of equipment for this institute is, however, retained. The capacity of the proposed Institute of Technology in Basrah was increased from 520 to 840 to utilize fully the facilities provided. The number of work training centers was increased from four to five and the capacity of each was reduced from 550 to 300 to improve their regional distribution and to make them more easily manageable and more realistic in their projected enrollments. Since organized courses for farmers are new to the country, it was considered ad- visable at this stage to establish farmer training facilities in only 10 of the 13 agricultural secondary schools requested. II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND General 2.01 The total area of Iraq is 435,000 sq. kms., 65% of which is desert, mountains and wasteland. Agriculture is concentrated in the northeast and in the central and southern regions. The total population of Iraq is 9.7 million, consisting mostly of Arabs, includes a sizable Kurdish community in the northern regions. The population is increasing at 3.2% per annum, a high rate which is expected to increase to 3.5% p.a. in the second half of the seventies. 48% of the population is under 15 years of age; 57% lives in urban centers of which more than one-third is in the Baghdad area.  - 2- Economic Development Strategy 2.02 The financing of the National Development Plans relies on oil which provides 50% of government revenues. The Government policy is to lessen this dependence by reorienting its development policy more toward agriculture and manufacturing. 2.03 Agriculture is the only source of income for more than half of the population. Its low productivity is partly due to hasty implementation of agrarian reform without adequate management capabilities and partly to in- sufficient application of new technology. Only 25% of the arable land is actually under cultivation. The remainder is either temporarily kept fallow or not used at all. The Government policy is to improve the control of the water resources by expanding the irrigated areas and providing better drain- age, and thus to bring more land under cultivation. Together with the in- troduction of better agricultural methods and practices, through farmer training and the promotion of cooperatives, it is expected that such im- provement will increase rural employment and improve living conditions on the land so as to slow down migration to urban areas. 2.04 In manufacturing, the government wants to change the emphasis from traditional handicrafts to modern industry. Despite large government invest- ments in infrastructure and industry, the industrialization policy has had limited success. Shortages of skilled workers and managerial talent have slowed down the implementation of plans and led to low utilization of capac- ity. The Development Plan emphasizes improved utilization of existing idle capacity and the establishment of new industries in the field of foodstuffs, petroleum, petrochemicals and cement. Other sectors which receive special attention are transport (roads, river navigation), power and construction. To achieve these objectives, the government plans to expand technician train- ing and to develop a network of work training centers for the training of skilled and semi-skilled workers. Manpower Requirements 2.05 The total labor force is estimated at 2.7 million and is expected to grow at 3.8% p.a. to 3.9 million by 1980 (Appendix I). A small but increas- ing proportion is women, many of whom are employed in teaching and in govern- ment offices. Employment is expected to increase at a slightly lower rate: Annual Employment 1970 _ Growth 1980 % Total 2,580,000 (100) 3.6% 3,650,000 (100) Agriculture 1,450,000 ( 56) 2.3% 1,325,000 (50) Industry 250,000 ( 10) 6.7% 475,000 (13) Services 830,000 ( 34) 4.5% 1,350,000 (37)  - 3 - Industrial employment is growing rapidly but since this sector is still very small, the development of the agricultural sector is essential to avoid large- scale unemployment. In addition to the official estimate of unemployment of 5%, there is a large amount of disguised unemployment. Industrial Manpower 2.06 There is a critical shortage of skilled workers and technicians which is likely to persist in the foreseeable future. The lack of skilled workers is one of the factors limiting the development of modern manufactur- ing. Only a few of the larger enterprises, like the Iraqi Petroleum Company and the Iraqi Railways Service, have established their own vocational train- ing facilities. A new Labor Law requires all large enterprises to organize in-plant vocational training while the government will establish centers for those employed in smaller establishments and for the unemployed. 2.07 The shortage of technicians is increasing and many vacancies which require only technician training are being filled by engineers who are now in ample supply. This is both costly and unsatisfactory since the engineer has had less training in those practical skills required by the technician for the supervision of (insufficiently trained) workers at craft level. The gov- ernment plans an immediate increase in technician training while temporarily slowing down the development of engineer training. 2.08 Average annual industrial manpower requirements for 1970-1980 com- pare as follows with the existing training capacity (Bank staff estimate): Required Training Shortage/ Planned Expansion Numbers Capacity Surplus (After 1975) Total 7,800 2,850 - 4,950 2,600 Engineers 800 900 + 100 --- Technicians 1,900 450 - 1,450 700 Skilled Workers 5,100 1,500 - 3,600 1,900 The surplus of engineers is likely to be confined to the early '70's. To meet part of the shortage of skilled workers and technicians after 1975, the government is now preparing plans to expand training to about 50-60% of the estimated requirements. The remaining shortage would be covered by on-the- job training. Agricultural Manpower 2.09 The agricultural development strategy, outlined in para. 2.04 is greatly dependent on a skilled agricultural labor force. This remains one of the weakest points in the development of agriculture in Iraq. Large and costly irrigation schemes sometimes fail to produce the expected returns be- cause farmers lack the required skill and knowledge to benefit from them.  - 4 - The government has started farmer training, but so far only on an ad hoc basis and on too small a scale. Expansion and improvement of such train- ing are needed. 2.10 The need for agricultural technician training is equally pressing. The expansion of the extension service and the cooperative movement is hampered by the serious shortage of agricultural technicians. The Extension Service in the Ministry of Agriculture will need 110 additional extension officers per annum in the next five years; the Department of Cooperatives in the Min- istry of Agrarian Reform will need 320 technician and degree level special- ists by 1975, for posts which have already been established. The develop- ment of irrigation and drainage requires large numbers of technicians for research, preparation and implementation of government schemes. Further, general and agricultural secondary education would require an estimated 740 agricultural technicians to be trained as teachers by 1980 (Appendix II). 2.11 Total supply and requirements for agricultural technicians and degree holders by 1980 are estimated as follows: Shortage/ Planned Requirements Supply Surplus Expansion Technician level 5,000 1,300 - 3,200 1,100 Degree level 2,100 4,500 + 2,400 --- To avoid an increasing shortage of technicians, the training capacity will be greatly expanded. At degree level, a surplus could develop because of recent- ly expanded training facilities. The government intends to reduce the intake of students into Agricultural Colleges. III. THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM: TRENDS, CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES AND NEEDS 3.01 The Iraqi educational system provides for six years of primary (grades 1-6) six years of secondary (grades 7-12) and four to six years of university education. Secondary education is divided into a three-year in- termediate course (grades 7-9) and a three-year preparatory course (grades 10-12). In addition, two years of post-secondary vocational and teacher training courses are offered (Charts I and II). The Ministry of Education has overall responsibility for primary and secondary education and the Min- istry of Higher Education and Scientific Research is responsible for post- secondary and university education. Educational planning is hampered by the division of responsibility among different ministries and by the inadequacy of technical staff in the Ministry of Education. The Government has recently established an inter-ministerial Council for Educational Planning but needs technical assistance to establish proper planning procedures.  3.02 Primary school enrollment has doubled during the last decade to about one million in 1970 representing 64% of the age group 7-12 (Annex 1). Government plans are to enroll 95% of the boys and 75% of the girls in the appropriate age group by 1980. 3.03 Secondary Education: Enrollments have increased more than three- fold in the last decade to a total of 317,000 in 1970 representing 25% of the age group 13-18. The Government has not yet quantified its plans for the rate of future increase in enrollments. The Bank staff estimate is that the present enrollment ratio of 25% will be maintained in which case total enrollments will increase to approximately 390,000 in 1980. 3.04 Education at this level is suffering from a number of structural weaknesses which prevent the schools from preparing the students adequately for future life. At intermediate level opportunities for practical, prevo- cational work are limited by the absence of workshops and equipment. Science teaching is largely ineffective because it is by demonstration rather than by individual experimentation. At preparatory level there is a distinct imbalance between academic and technical education. More than 56% of the students are in literary courses, 27% in science, more than 4% in teacher training and only 12% in technical courses provided in separate industrial, agricultural, home economics and commercial schools (para. 3.07). As in intermediate education, science teaching is not very effective; science equipment is grossly inadequate. A major weakness of secondary education is that the courses are rigidly separa- ted; this provides little choice of study options to the student, gives no flexibility in the school system and tends to deepen the bias against technical training as compared with academic education. 3.05 The pupil/teacher ratio is reasonable (26:1). Most of the second- ary school teachers are university graduates but their pedagogical training is inadequate, and they are unfamiliar with modern teaching techniques, par- ticularly the science teachers. The Government has recently discontinued the training of secondary school teachers in a regular four-year degree pro- gram and is proposing to replace it by a more advanced and professional one- year course leading to a post-graudate diploma. 3.06 The efficiency of the secondary school system is low; dropout and repeating rates are high particularly at the preparatory level. Studies undertaken by the Educational Research Center so far indicate that the unequal distribution and standards of educational facilities, shortage of qualified science and mathematics teachers, and curricula ill adapted to in- dividual needs are major causes of the low efficiency of the school system. 3.07 Specialized training is provided in a large number of uneconomically small secondary schools. In 1970 there were 69 secondary schools specializing in industrial, agricultural, commercial, home economics and teacher education. Their average size was less than 200 students. The training program of some of these schools is not effectively geared to the country's need for trained manpower.  -6- 3.08 Twelve technical (industrial) secondary schools provide three-year training courses for 2,400 students who will join the skilled labor force. Graduates are not generally well received by industry due to the inappro- priateness of their training. The need at this level is for more practically- oriented short courses in vocational training centers. 3.09 Previous attempts to train technicians in a five-year course at the post-intermediate level and more recently in a three-year course at the post-preparatory level have not been successful principally because both courses were too long and failed to differentiate clearly between technician and professional engineering status. The Institute of Technology, until re- cently attached to the University of Baghdad, is now offering a revised two- year course for 520 students at the post-secondary level in civil, mechanical and electrical engineering. 3.10 Thirteen agricultural secondary schools provide training over a three-year period for 3,600 students. Graduates of these schools are em- ployed in the Ministries of Agriculture, Agrarian Reform, Irrigation and Education; very few have become farmers. Some continue university education or other post-secondary training. The agricultural secondary school courses are academically oriented and give insufficient attention to practical train- ing. There are adequate workshops but none is fully equipped. Livestock and crop farms attached to the schools are too small to provide practical ex- periences for the students. As a result, graduates lack the competence required of skilled agricultural workers. In an effort to provide opportu- nities for entry into farming, the Government initiated as a pilot project, a collective farm which attracted a large number of applicants. The program of Agricultural Secondary Schools in the future will include more practical farming along these lines. 3.11 The need for organized programs for farmer training has been rec- ognized, but programs have not yet been developed. Eleven of the thirteen agricultural secondary schools have each conducted one course of 7-15 days for groups of 15-30 farmers during 1971. The courses include Farm Machinery, Horticulture, Vegetable Production, and Poultry. This aspect of non-formal education needs to be expanded and institutionalized. 3.12 Facilities for the training of agricultural technicians are pro- vided in a two-year post-secondary agricultural institute at Abu Ghraib near Baghdad. The current enrollment is 400. There is considerable demand for the graduates of this institute. 3.13 The number of students enrolled in higher education has more than tripled since 1958 and in 1970 had reached a total of 36,700. The four pub- lic universities of Baghdad, Mosul, Basrah, Sulaimaniya and the government supported Mustansiriya University provide courses of four to five years lead- ing to a first degree. Inadequate scientific preparation of the students at the secondary level is a major cause of high dropout at this level. Two- year post-secondary courses are provided for the training of technicians in home economics, business administration, and medical laboratory work in ad- dition to the courses carried out in technical and agricultural institutes.  - 7 - 3.14 In higher education, emphasis will be placed on technician training so as to improve the present low ratio between technicians and high level pro- fessional personnel (para. 2.08). A Council for Higher Education was recently established with the development of science, agriculture and engineering edu- cation as well as the planning of secondary teacher training programs as its major objectives. 3.15 Educational television was initiated during the academic year 1970/71. The Directorate of Educational Television in the Ministry of Edu- cation is responsible for program production. Recording and transmitting facilities belong to the Iraqui Broadcasting and Television Establishment (IBTE). Five weekly programs were telecast on an experimental basis for students in the final year of secondary education. In addition model lessons were broadcast for teachers. During school vacations an adult education pro- gram was also televised for the general public. 3.16 Major weaknesses of this experiment are the lack of a proper plan for integrating educational television with the school programs, a training scheme for teachers, program producers and technical staff, a cost-benefit study, an evaluation and feedback system, and a distribution and maintenance plan for TV receivers. In addition, the present managerial and engineering staff lack experience in the effective use of ETV. The frequent transfer of senior staff, the limited budgetary allocations for staff recruitment, and the present unsatisfactory arrangement which in the past allowed IBTE to use part of the studio facilities of the ETV, have adversely affected its operation and management. 3.17 Despite these weaknesses the potential benefits of further invest- ment in educational television are large. Investments already made (mainly for production and transmission) represent a value of $0.5 million but are not yet fully and effectively used. The existing national television network already covers the greater part of the population anid does not require costly additional investment. Additional production equipment (video tape recording equipment) and receivers for schools are the main items still required. The recurrent cost of an ETV program would add only 3% to the unit cost of a prim- ary school student and would not unduly increase the education budget. An ef- fective ETV program can be expected to have a moderating effect on the high rate of drop-out in the last years of primary education; even a small reduc- tion in the drop-out rate would fully compensate for the high cost of ETV, quite apart from the benefits of adult education. 3.18 The Government has decided to extend the ETV program to cover the last three grades of primary education. Two to three regular daily programs in science, mathematics, languages and social studies are envisaged. The switch from secondary to primary schools will reduce per pupil cost and will extend the facility to a majority of rural schools. The Government also in- tends to produce programs for promoting adult education and for further train- ing for out-of-school children, particularly in rural areas.  - 8 - 3.19 To make this program succeed the Government has appointed a full- time, qualified director and is developing local and overseas training pro- grams for producers, engineering technicians and graphic arts personnel. In the past the British Council, mainly through the Center for Educational De- velopment Overseas (CEDO), has provided some technical assistance for staff training but due to recent political developments the continuation of this assistance is uncertain. IV. COST AND FINANCING OF EDUCATION Education Expenditure 4.01 In 1970 total expenditures on education amounted to ID 65.5 million, representing a high 7.1% of GNP, a sharp increase from 5.6% of GNP in 1965 (Annex 5). Total government expenditure on education, however, remained at 16% of the total government budget during the same period which is low in comparison with many other countries but represents a high level of expend- iture on education in view of the fact that the public budget represents 41% of GNP. Public education is free at all levels. Private education accounts for only 5% of total expenditure. All subsidies to private education have been discontinued since 1967, but government exercises a firm control and supervision over private schools. External aid to education constitutes a small part of education expenditure and is limited to expertise and some equipment. 4.02 Of total education expenditures as much as 59% is used for primary, 23% for secondary, 15% for higher education and 3% for general administration and supervision. The share of vocational education is only a small 3.5% of the total expenditures, or 15% of the expenditures for secondary education (Annex 3). 4.03 Recurrent costs per student are high for primary and vocational schools and moderately high for general secondary and higher education: US$110 for primary education, US$120 for general secondary education, US$470 for home economics, US$510 for agricultural and US$900 for industrial schools; and US$1,010 for higher education. High unit costs are a result of the low pupil/teacher ratios, caused by small class sizes, and a light teaching load. Teachers are relatively well-paid: average annual salaries are US$2,100 for primary, US$2,800 for general secondary and US$3.700 for technical secondary teachers. As a result, there is a large interest in the teaching profession. The number of primary school teachers on the payroll is excessive and the scope for useful deployment is limited as the pupil/teacher ratio is already low. Financial provisions for equipment, supplies and materials are not always adequate and maintenance is poor (Annex 4). 4.04 Data on educational investments are not complete. Recorded capital expenditures are only 3% of total education expenditures, but schools, espe- cially primary schools, are sometimes constructed with the help of voluntary labor. Capital expenditures are not adequate as evidenced by the fact that  - 9 - 46% of the primary and 42% of the general secondary schools are substandard, a large number of them being in rented buildings which are not designed as schools. During the last 5 years only 40% of the budgets allocated for school construction were actually used. As with other sectors in the Devel- opment Plan, there is an urgent need for more attention to the preparation and implementation of educational investment projects. Future Education Expenditures 1970-1980 4.05 Based on assumptions outlined in Annex 5 total education expendi- ture would increase to ID 177 million by 1980 if pupil/teacher ratios, class sizes and teaching loads remain at their present low level. Even if GNP rose at a rapid 8% p.a., education would still claim as much as 9% of GNP by 1980. There is need to develop a coordinated education plan which would consolidate smaller schools into more economical units, increase class sizes and pupil/ teacher ratios and improve staff utilization. Total education expenditure would then increase only to ID 139 million by 1980 and its present 7% share of GNP would not rise (Annex 5). The recurrent cost resulting from the pro- posed project would be ID 1.8 million, or 1.3% of 1980 expenditure. V. EDUCATION AND TRAINING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 5.01 The Government has not yet completed a comprehensive plan for the development of the education and training system, but following three high level education seminars in 1970 and 1971, the broad objectives of the Gov- ernment's policy have emerged and decisions concerning a number of important reform measures have been taken which will greatly improve the relevance and efficiency of the country's education system. 5.02 More specifically, the Government intends, inter alia, to take the following steps which merit full support: (a) Secondary education will be improved by the introduction, on an experimental basis, of comprehensive secondary schools offering greater flexibility of course structure and greater emphasis on technical, as dis- tinct from academic courses, in accordance with the needs outlined in paras. 3.04 and 3.06 above; the experimental schools will also be more economical in size, which will enable the Government to increase the pupil/teacher ratio and reduce unit costs. Technical assistance will be required to assist in the administration of the new schools during the initial years. It will take some years before the results of this experiment are known but in the meantime the Government intends to give greater emphasis, in existing secondary schools, to practical, pre-vocational courses at lower secondary level and to the improvement of science teaching at both lower and upper levels. This step will require additional investments in labora- tories, workshops and equipment. Teacher training will be reorganized and improved and the training of technical teachers will be expanded. Research to find the causes of the high rate of drop-out and repetition will be continued.  - 10 - (b) Training of technicians for industry and agriculture will be im- proved and greatly expanded. The Government has acknowledged that the de- gree courses in engineering and agriculture have already expanded beyond the country's need and that the emphasis should be on short two-year post- secondary technician courses, in accordance with the manpower needs outlined above (paras. 2.08, 2.09 and 2.12). UNDP is already providing some technical and other assistance for industrial technician training but additional tech- nical assistance in this field and in agricultural technician training will be required. (c) Training of skilled workers will be greatly expanded. UNDP/ILO are assisting the Government in establishing a national vocational training scheme in response to the urgent need for skilled workers and supervisors (para. 2.09). In 1971 a new Labor Law was enacted which gives full respon- sibility for vocational training to a newly established Central Bureau of Vocational Training under the Labor Establishment in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. The Bureau, with UNDP/ILO technical assistance, is lay- ing the basis for a vocational training scheme and planning the establishment of a first training center in Baghdad. To meet fully the considerable training needs the country will require an expanding network of training centers in major industrial areas. Additional technical assistance is re- quired to train staff for the work training centers. (d) Farmer training centers will be established at ten agricultural secondary schools to train young and adult farmers in the use and applica- tion of modern farming techniques and practices so as to increase agricul- tural productivity. (e) Educational television: The Government wants to make fuller use of the potential of ETV by expanding the experimental programs, both in scope and coverage, not only to primary schools but also to adult education courses particularly in rural areas. Plans for the proposed extension are tentative and need considerably more preparation before further investment is made. A competent full-time director would be required to head up the program supported by appropriately qualified production and technical staff. The Government is taking steps to correct these deficiencies. Further in- vestment in ETV should be preceded by continued government measures to solve the pressing management problems and to develop a realistic plan (para. 3.16). Technical assistance is required for this purpose. VI. THE PROJECT General 6.01 The proposed project would assist the government to expand the training of middle level technicians and skilled craftsmen/farmers, to in- troduce comprehensive secondary education and to improve the teaching of science and vocational education in the secondary schools and to make better use of its ETV potential. It would help to finance (i) construction and  - 11 - equipment for new and existing facilities, as shown below, and (ii) 55 ex- pert man-years and 46 fellowship man-years of technical assistance to devel- op the new secondary comprehensive and vocational curricula, to train staff for technician training institutes and work training centers, to improve the production of education television programs and to strengthen educational planning and project implementation as detailed in Annex 8. Accommodation Student Boarding Housing Type of Institutions Grades No. Places Places Units Secondary Education Addi- tional. Total Comprehensive Secondary Schools 7-12 4 3,200 3,200 430 20 Scienice Blocks 10-12 12 4,000 4,000 - - Vocational Workshops 7-9 20 10,300 10,300 - - Technican Training Technical Institutes 13-14 2 1,810 2,330 200 3 (Basrah and Baghdad) Agricultural Institutes 13-14 2 500 500 500 20 (Eski Kellah and Amara) Non-Formal Education Work Training Centers 7 plus 5 1,500 1,500 - Farmer Training Centers 7 plus 10 300 300 - Educational Television 4-6 TOTAL 55 21,610 22,130 1,130 43 Comprehensive Secondary Schools 6.02 These schools would provide an experimental program aimed at bridg- ing the present gap between academic and technical prevocational courses by providing facilities which will enable students to make a choice among literary, scientific and technical courses. The proposed project would finance four comprehensive secondary schools (three for boys, one for girls), two of whiich will be located in Baghdad, one in Suairah and one in Sulemaniya. The schools would provide six-year courses of general and vocationally-oriented secondary education for 3,200 students and would serve as a pilot project for diversifying the curriculum to suit individual need (paras. 3.04--3.07). The proposed cur- ricula are appropriate and emphasize courses in fields where a considerable  - 12 - employment opportunity exists for the graduates (Annex 6). The schools offer courses in industrial arts, commercial studies, agriculture and home economics as well as general courses in science and arts. Specialization into the various streams is possible during the last two years of the six-year program and the proportion of vocational enrollments will constitute 75% of the total in these grades (Annex 7). Individual choice and aptitude will determine the distrib- ution of students among the options. 6.03 The two schools to be located in rural areas will require boarding accommodation and staff housing. The College of Education in the University of Baghdad will provide the required 93 teachers of academic subjects with post-graduate diploma courses in education. The In-service Teacher Training Institute in Baghdad offers courses in industrial arts. It should also ac- cept responsibility for the training of industrial arts teachers. The Col- lege of Agriculture and the schools of home economics and commerce in the University of Baghdad will train the required agricultural, home economics and commercial teachers. The project provides for technical assistance in the form. of an adviser for the Ministry of Education to develop the compre- Lnensive school program and eight fellowships for staff training. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government would organize the teacher training courses needed and recruit qualified directors and assist- ant directors to plan the school programs as early as possible. Science Laboratories 6.04 The proposed project would provide for the construction, furniture and equipment of science laboratories for 4,000 science students in twelve preparatory secondary schools located in Baghdad, Mosul and Basrah in accord- ance with the needs outlined in para. 3.04. The science curricula of these schools are satisfactory. The majority of the graduates would enter univer- sity science faculties and post-secondary institutes for enGineering, agri- culture and paramedical training. Some 40 teachers already in service should receive training in the use of laboratory techniques in the College of Educa- tion. During negotiations assurances to this effect were obtained from the government. Intermediate School Workshop Units 6.05 The project would provide for the construction and equipment of workshop units in each of 20 intermediate schools. Courses would be offered in woodwork, metal-work, electricity, handcrafts and technical drawing in accordance with the needs outlined in para. 3.04. In addition, four expert man-years of technical assistance would be provided. The project would im- prove practical training and establish a basis for general skills training in areas where such skills are in great demand. It is expected that as a result of the better facilities and improved training of some 10,000 students, the standards of entry to technical and vocational courses at the preparatory level would be greatly enhanced. For those who wish to join the labor force at the end of the intermediate school employment prospects as semi-skilled tradesmen would also improve.  - 13 - 6.06 To prepare the required 120 vocational instructors, selected grad- uates from the technical secondary schools would be recruited for a one-year course in which approximately one-half of the time would be devoted to fur- ther training in technical skills and the other half to pedagogy and teach- ing practice. The courses would be given in the appropriate technical sec- ondary schools in Baghdad with the necessary supporting staff from the Col- lege of Education. During negotiations assurances were obtained that satis- factory arrangements will be made for carrying out this proposal. Institutes of Technology (Basrah and Baghdad) 6.07 To meet the need for technicians outlined in paras. 2.07-2.09, the project would provide for (i) the construction and equipment of a new Insti- tute of Technology at Basrah, with a capacity of 840 students, to train tech- nicians in civil, mechanical, electrical and processing engineering and (ii) equipment for the Baghdad Institute of Technology to increase its capacity from 520 to 1,490 students and to develop new courses in water supply and treatment, power generation and transmission, radio and television telecommu- nications, refrigeration and air conditioning, textiles, petro-chemical and laboratory technician training in addition to the existing civil, electrical and mechanical engineering courses. The Institutes, under the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, will offer two-year post-secondary courses with provision for vacation periods to be spent in industry. The curricula of the Institutes are satisfactory. 6.08 UNDP has agreed to finance about US$345,000 for some equipment, technical assistance and overseas training for the Institute at Basrah. How- ever, in addition to this, about 8 expert man-years and 4 fellowship man- years of technical assistance are also required for this Institute. These have been included under the proposed Bank project. It is anticipated that around 1975, additional technical assistance would be required. At the ap- propriate time, the Government will try and arrange further UNDP financing for it, or finance it itself. The proposed project also includes 8 fellow- ship man-years of technical assistance for the Baghdad Institute (Annex 8). 6.09 The two institutes would ultimately require 152 additional teachers who should be trained by the College of Education following technician train- ing and industrial experience. A program for the recruitment, training and appointment of these teachers should be developed before December 31, 1972 and carried out before June 30, 1976. The Director and Assistant Director for the Basrah Institute should be appointed sufficiently in advance of the completion of construction. Assurances to this effect were obtained during the negotiations. Work Training Centers 6.10 The project would help to cover part of the shortage of skilled workers (Paras. 2.05-2.09) by providing for the construction and equipment of five centers (two in Baghdad, one each in Mosul, Basrah and Kirkuk). These would offer initial full-time training programs for newly employed workers as well as part-time and full-time trade training courses for the  - 14 - upgrading of existing workers in metal, auto mechanics, electricity, con- struction, plastics, ceramics, textiles and weaving. The proposed courses are directly related to the needs of the respective regions. The initial full-time courses will last approxinately 9 months. The upgrading courses will be of varying character and length according to the needs of industry and the trainee. Completion of intermediate education would be required for admission. The centers will operate on a double shift system and graduate a total of 3,000 skilled workers per year. 6.11 A total of 240 instructors should be trained, using a number of existing technical institutions which all have staff available. An ILO team of experts is now in Iraq assisting the Government in vocational training. The Government will arrange with the ILO to continue the services of these experts for assisting in the organization and supervision of the staff train- ing. The construction and equipping of the centers will be undertaken by the Ministry of Education in close cooperation with the Central Bureau of Vocational Training in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, and the administration of these centers would be transferred to the latter Ministry as soon as the centers become operational. This program would require 18 expert man-years and 10 fellowship man-years of technical assistance for staff training, as detailed in Annex 8. Agricultural Institutes (Eski Kellak and Amara) 6.12 The project would provide for the establishnent of two new agri- cultural institutes to train middle level agricultural technicians in ac- cordance with the needs outlined in paras. 2.11 and 2.12. One of the in- stitutes would be at Eski Kellak in the North, with an enrollment of 240, and the other at Amara in the South with an enrollment of 260. Both in- stitutions would be provided with full boarding facilities and would offer two-year, post-secondary courses with three streams following partially specialized options in animal production, crop production and farm mechani- zation and irrigation. The annual output from both institutions would be approximately 220 technicians. The curricula of the Institutes are satis- factory. The institutes will be operated by the Ministry of Higher Educa- tion and Scientific Research. 6.13 Successful operation would require technical assistance, which has been included in the project (para. 6.19). A recently enacted law would enable the establishment of salary scales and terms of service which would facilitate the recruitment of 30 adequately trained and experienced staff needed for the Institutes. Assurances have been obtained from the govern- ment that directors for the agricultural institutes will be appointed suf- ficiently in advance of the completion of construction. 6.14 The location of the institutes is satisfactory. The Institute in the North is to be located adjacent to an agricultural complex of a forestry institute, a livestock research center, a senior agricultural high school, regional offices of the M1tinistries of Agriculture and Irrigation, and a new irrigation project of 20,000 donums (5,000 hectares) of land. The Institute in the South is to be located on a main highway in a new irrigation develop- ment project of 90,000 donums (22,500 hectares).  - 15 - Farmer Training Centers 6.15 A major objective of the project is to acquaint farmers with modern techniques and practices needed to improve agricultural productivity (paras. 2.04, 2.10 and 3.11). The project would provide training facilities in the form of a lecture-demonstration room and a poultry house, together with teach- ing and farm equipment at 10 of the existing 13 agricultural secondary schools in the country. In addition, three expert man-years and six fellowship man- years of technical assistance would be required. 6.16 Courses for up to 30 participants and lasting from seven to four- teen days will be mainly practical in nature and geared to the development of selected farm skills and practices. It is proposed that eventually about 15 courses will be offered each year. The subject matter for each course will be developed by thie Board of Managers; the arrangements for the courses - including the transport of farmers, will be the responsibility of the staff of each school, and the conduct of the training will be shared by the school's staff and appropriate specialists from the Ministries of Agriculture, Agrarian Reform, Irrigation and Education. The selection of participants for the course, now a function of the local branch1 of the farmer's union, will be- come a joint responsibility with the Board of Managers to be appointed for each school. Educational Television 6.17 To enable the Government to make better use of its ETV potential (para. 3.17) througlh a well-designed e<iucational television program that will reinforce classroom teaching in primary education, improve student performance and support the large number of unqualified teachers, the Proj- ect wouldl provide expert services and fellowslhips (as detailed in Annex d) to be followed at a later stage by production equipment and television re- ceivers. During the negotiations assurances were obtained that the Govern- ment would continue to employ a qualified, full-time director for ETV, with authority over central and district audiovisual personnel and to allocate sufficient funds for ETV operations. Assurances have also been obtained from the Government that normally the ETV studio facilities would be used solely for educational purposes. Before Decemiiber 31, 1973, with the assis- tance of consultants or technical experts provided under the Project, the staffing of ETV would be improved, a detailed program, mutually satisfactory to the Government and the Bank, would be developed for the use of ETV facil- ities in the last tharee grades of primary schools and in adult education and a detailed equipment list would be prepared. This program will include, (a) an evaluation of the existing experimental rTV program, (b) selection of schools and subjects appropriate for ETV, (c) trainin} of teachers in the use of ETV, (d) traininj of program producers in ETV, (e) program production and establishmiLent of an evaluation and feed-back systemii, (f) an analysis of expected cost and benefits.  - 16 - Technical Assistance 6.18 Successful implementation of the proposed project will require specialist manpower in fields where local expertise is lacking or inadequate; to meet those requirements which are not forthcoming from other external sources, the project would include 55 expert man-years and 46 fellowship mar.-years (as specified in Annex 3) for the following purposes: (a) to organize educational planning in the Ministry of Education and to strengthen the inter-ministerial Council for Educational Planning in ac- cordance with the needs in para. 3.01; (b) to develop comprehensive school curricula and supervise the Voca- tional Workshop programs in secondary schools (paras. 6.03 and 6.05); (c) to develop programs at the technical institute in Basrah to sup- plement UNDP technical assistance (para. 6.08) and at the two agricultural institutes and the farmer training centers (paras. 6.13 and 6.15); (d) to train staff for the work training centers (para. 6.11); (e) to assist the government in establishing a viable ETV program (para. 6.17); (f) to assist the project unit in procuring equipment and furniture for project institutions (para. 7.01). Tracer System 6.19 As part of the evaluation of the proposed project., a "tracer system" would be established to conduct a systematic follow-up study on student with- drawal and repetition and on employment and/or further training of graduates of the project schools and a representative group of the more traditional schools. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. Cost of the Project 1/ 6.20 The estimated costs and foreign exchange components of the various iter.s of the project are summarized below. (Further details in Annex 9.) 1/ The exchange rate applied is the official rate of ID 1 = US$3.04. The actual rate was 3.10 on May 17, 1972.  - 17 - Iraqi Dinar US$ (millions) (millions) % of Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Total I. Civil Works, Furniture and Equipment 1. Comprehensive Sec- ondary Schools 0.51 0.53 1.04 1.51 1.63 3.14 16 2. Science Labora- tories 0.11 0.17 0.28 0.33 0.52 0.85 4 3. Vocational Work- shops 0.26 0.31 0.57 0.79 0.93 1.72 9 4. Institutes of Tech- nology 0.25 0.67 0.92 0.78 2.03 2.81 14 5. Agricultural Insti- tutes 0.26 0.38 0.64 0.76 1.19 1.95 10 6. Work Training Centers 0.29 0.59 0.38 0.90 1.73 2.68 13 7. Farmer Training Wings 0.05 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.34 0.50 3 8. Educational Television 0.02 0.26 0.28 0.06 0.78 0.84 4 Sub-Total 1.75 3.02 4.77 5.29 9.20 14.49 73 II. Technical Assistance 0.14 0.53 0.72 0.44 1.76 2.20 11 Total 1.89 3.60 5.49 5.73 10.96 16.69 84 III. Contingencies (a) Physical 0.16 0.13 0.29 0.50 0.38 0.88 4 (b) Price 0.26 0.52 0.73 0.80 1.57 2.37 12 Sub-Total 0.42 0.65 1.07 1.30 1.95 3.25 16 Total Project Cost 2.31 4.25 6.56 7.03 12.91 19.94 100  - 18 - 6.21 A breakdown of the estimated costs by types of expenditure would be as follows: Iraqi Dinar US$ (millions) (millions) % of Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Total 1. Civil Works a. Buildings: Academic and Communal 1.09 0.32 1.91 3.31 2.50 5.31 29 Boarding 0.16 0.12 0.28 0.48 0.36 0.84 4 Staff Housing 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.36 0.26 0.62 3 b. Site Development 0.18 0.06 0.24 0.54 0.19 0.73 4 c. Professional Services 0.10 0.16 0.26 0.31 0.47 0.78 4 Sub-Total 1.65 1.25 2.90 5.00 3.73 8.73 44 2. Furniture 0.02 0.30 0.32 0.05 0.92 0.97 5 3. Equipment 0.08 1.47 1.55 0.24 4.50 4.74 24 Sub-Total 0.10 1.77 1.87 0.29 5.42 5.71 29 4. Technical Assistance 0.14 0.58 0.72 0.44 1.76 2.20 11 Total 1.39 3.60 5.49 5.73 10.96 16.69 84 5. Contingencies a. Physical 0.16 0.13 0.29 0.50 0.33 0.3S 4 b. Price 0.26 0.52 0.78 0.30 1.57 2.37 12 Sub-Total 0.42 0.65 1.07 1.30 1.95 3.25 16 Total Project Cost 2.31 4.25 6.56 7.03 12.91 19.94 100 6.22 The cost estimates for school buildings in the proposed project are based on contracts concluded by the 'Ministry of Public Works in the past two to three years and on information obtainecd from public and private enter- prises. The building cost per square meter of gross floor area, ranging from US$76 for secondary schools to USS100 for the Institute of Technology, are somewhat higher than in similar projects but the unit costs per student place and the use factor of the project institutions compare favorably with similar Bank/IDA financed projects in other countries (Annex 10). A local cost adjustment of 10% of the basic price has been made for Basrah and 15%  - 19 - for Mosul and vicinity due to additional transportation costs and lack of local skilled labor. Site development costs are estimated at 7-15% of building cost depending on the conditions of each site. The cost estimates for furni- ture and equipment are based on c.&f. prices (i.e. net of taxes and duties), including insurance to be arranged by the Government. No preferential trade agreements exist for the goods and services to be provided. 6.23 The cost of the project includes a contingency allowance for un- foreseen factors equal to 10% of the estimated costs for buildings, site development and professional services (Annex 11). The estimated unit costs are expected to increase 4-5% p.a. and the project costs, therefore, would also include allowance to cover possible price increases during the imple- mentation period equal to 15% for buildings, site development, professional services and furniture and equipment and 10% for technical assistance (Annex 11). Total contingencies would thus represent 19% of the total project cost excluding contingencies and 16% including contingencies. 6.24 The foreign exchange component of US$12.9 million representing 65% of the total project cost has been calculated as follows: (i) site develop- ment 25%; (ii) buildings 43%; (iii) professional services 60%; (iv) furniture and equipment 95%; and (v) technical assistance 80%. VII. IMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENT 7.01 The Project Implementation Unit: A special unit has been estab- lished in the Ministry of Education which will be responsible to an Inter- ministerial Coordinating Committee composed of responsible officials from the Ministries of Education (Chairman), Higher Education and Scientific Research, Labor and Social Affairs, Planning and Communications (IBTE). The project unit would be responsible for: (a) supervision; (b) coordina- tion within the Ministry and with other government agencies; and (c) liaison with the Bank. The Director of the unit will be a member of the Inter-minis- terial Coordinating Committee and is directly responsible to it. The unit will include (i) a qualified full-tine project directcr and a qualified full- time project architect; (ii) a specialist in furniture and equipment procure- ment to be provided as part of the tecinical assistance included in the pro- posed project; (iii) a qualified accountant; and (iv) secretarial and support- ing staff. The project director and the project architect are being selected. 7.02 Professional Services: The implementation of the whole project would require employment of professional manpower beyond the government's present resources. A consultinig firm of architects and engineers, mutually satisfactory to the Government and the Bank, would therefore be needed for the design and supervision of construction. It is likely that a local and an international firm will form a joint venture to provide these services. For some project items, such as additions of laboratories and workshops to existing schools, competent Government architects would however be employed. Even in this case preliminary designs and specifications will have to be satisfactory to the Bank prior to detailed designing and construction.  - 20 - 7.03 Site Acquisition: Satisfactory sites have been selected for most of the project items and assurances have been obtained that suitable sites will be selected before December 1973 to replace those which were not found appropriate. 7.04 Procurement: All contracts for the supply of furniture and equip- ment and for construction of schools would be awarded on the basis of inter- national competitive bidding. The number of local general contractors is adequate to carry out the construction work. Except for equipment and furni- ture, most of which will be imported, it is unlikely that the project would attract many foreign bidders. Local furniture manufacturers would be allowed a preferential margin of 15% of the c.&f. costs (plus insurance) of competing imports or the rate of import duties whichever is less. Iraq does not normal- ly allow import of furniture of the type manufactured domestically. However the Government has agreed that all bid documents would clarify that import licenses would be issued to successful bidders. 7.05 Disbursements: The Bank would finance the c.&f. costs of imported furniture and equipment or the ex-factory cost of furniture if it is locally produced, 100% of the foreign exchange cost of professional services and tech- nical assistance and 41% of the cost of civil works representing the foreign exchange cost. The project would be carried out in about five years; con- struction can be completed in 2-1/2 years, but technical assistance is re- quired for up to 5 years (Annexes 12 and 13). VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHEI) AND REC0V-EINDATIONS 8.01 Before the negotiations, the Government established an Inter- Ministerial Coordinating Committee and a Project Implementation Unit in the Ministry of Education (para. 7.01). The Government has also confirmed the availability of UNDP (Special Fund) technical assistance for the Basrah Institute of Technology (para. 6.03). 8.02 During the negotiations satisfactory assurances were obtained on the following matters: (i) recruitment, training and appointment of teaching staff for the project institutions (paras. 6.03, 6.04, 6.06, 6.09, 6.11, 6.13 and 6.17); (ii) acquisition of sites (para. 7.03). (iii) development of a plan for the use of ETV (para. 6.17); (iv) establishment of a tracer system (para. 6.19); (v) staffing of the project unit (para. 7.01).  - 21 - 8.03 The proposed project is suitable as a basis for a Bank loan of US$12.9 million to the Republic of Iraq, for a period of 25 years including a 10-year grace period.   APPENDIX I Page 1 TECrUNICAL MANPOWER REQUIREFENTS 1. The Mission's estimate of Iraq's requirements for technical trained manpower in the period 1970-1980 is based on reports by Nils Strom, a U.N. manpower expert, and by the Unesco Project Identification V'ission. The mission elaborated on the estimates for population, labor force and employment by sector, taking into account the revised population estimates and various new priorities introduced in the National. Development Plan. The mission's revised employment estimates are summarized in Tahle 1. TABLE 1: Ponulation and Fmployment 1970, 1975 and 1980 (in thousands) Growth Growth 1970 Per Annum 1975 Per Annum 1980 abs. . abs. % abs. Population 1/ 9,440 3.3 11,124 3.5 13,214 Labor force 2/ 2,703 3.8 3,254 3.8 3,919 Employment 3/ 2,579 3.3 3,034 3.8 3,654 - agriculture 1,455 2.2 1,625 2.4 1,825 - industry 249 6.7 344 6.7 475 - services 875 4.0 1,065 4.9 1,354 2. The table shows that the labor force will increase faster than ponulation, mainly because of an increased participation by women. Thus, it will be difficult to avoid growth of unemplovment; agriculture may re- main the largest employment outlet if urbanization is checked and the area under cultivation is increased. The industrial sectors (mining, manufacturing, utilities and construction) may develop very rapidly, reflecting the high pri- ority these sectors have in government's development plans. 1/ Source: "Report on Revised Projections of Population in Iraq by Sex and Age Group, 1957-1980," by Kozo Ueda, U.N. Demographer, May 1970. 2/ On the basis of participation rates for the population, ages 10 and higher, in: "Revised Estimations of 4anpower Supply and Requirements, 1970-1975," by Nils Strom, Report No. 3, November 1969. 3/ Employment is based on Nils Strom's Peport No. 3 and modified according to the National Development Plan, 1970-1974.  APPENDIX I Page 2 3. The above employment projections were disaggregated into smaller sectors, and the number of new entrants determined. The proportions of new entrants into each sector requiring technical training was estimated using normative percentages of similar countries and the basic data of the surveys of large establishments, carried out in the past few years. A survey of manpower demand in the next 4 years was being carried out while the mission was in the field. The survey covered 21% of total employment in the in- dustrial sector, trade and transport. Demand for technical trained manpower was on the average 38% of total manpower demand (Table 2). When estimated demand for smaller establishments is added, one arrives at the ratios in- dicated in Table 3. 4. Requirements for workers with technical training are of particular importance in manufacturing. Other sectors such as construction, transport and services have lower technical skill requirements but they are important because of their overall size. Total technical training requirements will be of the order of 29,000 in the period 1970-1975 and 49,000 in 1975-1980. These numbers would constitute respectively 3.4% and 4.6% of total new en- trants into the labor force. 5. The assumed distribution by level of training is again to a large extent normative. The recent survey, mentioned above, indicated that demand for technical trained manpower is composed of 14% engineers, 18% technicians and 68% skilled workers. This ratio reflects the present situation where large numbers of engineers are working in technicians' positions. Estimates for technical manpower requirements were made using the normative ratios of 10:25:65 between engineers to technicians to skilled workers. The expected output capacity of the education and training system as compared with these estimates is given in Table 4.  Tabie 2 IRAQ MANPOWER DEMAND OF LARGE ENTERPRISES, 1971-74 Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Trade Manufacturing Manufacturing Transport Total (public) (public) (Public) (public) (private) (public) (abs.) (%) Administrative and Clerical 327 137 1,069 1,829 51 547 3,960 13.0 Professionals: Non-technical 22 35 211 153 1 96 518 1.7 Technical 205 137 213 784 14 231 1,584 5.2 Technicians 182 105 314 1,218 32 237 2,088 6.8 Skilled 312 109 356 5,357 316 1,437 7,887 25.8 Semi-skilled 1,700 188 902 6,583 321 389 10,083 33.1 Unskilled 168 514 140 2,795 150 630 4,397 14.4 Total 2,916 1,225 3,205 18,719 885 3,567 30,517 100 Employment 1971 11,500 3,400 4,970 33,885 28,475 39,728 122,000 Total employment in sector, 197n 13,400 75,000 155,000 160,000 154,000 574,000 (%) (86) (4.5) (3.2) (39) (26) (21) Notes: Administrative and Clerical: includes managers, chief accountants, etc. Professionals: all university graduates Technicians: post-secondary, with one or two years further technical education Source: Preliminary results of survey by Ministry of Planning CD I-M  IRAQ Table 3. Technical Training Requirements 1970 - 1980 (in thousands) Manu- Electricity, Construc- Total Agriculture Mining facturing Gas & Water tion Trade Transport Services 1970 - 1975 Employment, 1970 2,579 1,455 16 150 13 70 150 150 575 3nployment, 1975 3.034 1,625 18 210 16 100 180 170 715 Increase 455 170 2 60 3 30 30 20 140 Replacement 387 21B 2 23 2 10 23 23 86 Total new entr-ants, 842 388 4 83 5 40 53 43 226 of which technical trained: % - 10 20 20 8 2 5 2 abs0 29.0 - 0.4 16.6 1.0 3.2 1.1 2.2 4.5 1975 - 1980 Enployment, 1975 3,034 1,625 18 210 16 100 180 170 715 Employment, 1980 3.654 L1825 25 305 20 125 230 215 22 Increase 620 200 7 95 4 25 50 45 194 Replacement 455 244 3 31 2 15 27 26 107 Total new entrants, 1,075 444 10 126 6 40 77 71 301 X of which technical trained: % 10 25 25 10 2 5 2 abs. 49.0 - 1.0 31.5 1.5 4.0 1.5 3.5 6.0  APPENDIX I Page 5 TABLE 4: Technical Training: Supply and Penuirements 1970-1980 Skilled Total Engineers Technicians Workers 1970-1975 Required numbers 29,000 3,000 7,000 19,000 Training capacity 11,000 4,000 2,000 5,00Q Shortage/surplus - 18,000 + 1,000 - 5,000 - 14,000 1975-1980 Required numbers 49,000 5,000 12,000 32,000 Training capacity 17,500 5,000 2,500 10,000 _ 31,500 - _ 9,500 - 22,000 Project contribution 13,000 - 3,500 9,5001' Shortage - 18,500 - - 6,000 - 12,500 6. The following general conclusions can be drawn: (a) The existing technical training capacity falls far short of requirements resulting in the growing shortage of tech- nical trained manpower. The proposed Bank project will cover one-third of the shortage of technicians after 1975, and thus provide an imPortant contribution to the country's needs. (b) The work training centers will cover half the shortage of skilled workers. The comprehensive schools will not have produced skilled manpower in this period. (c) At present, engineers are in surplus supply. The situation maY change towards the end of the 1970's. Till that ti,e, no further exransion of engineering education seers justi- f4ed. 1/ The comprehensive schools will not graduate during this period and their output is therefore not included in this figure.   APPENDIX II Page 1 AGRICULTURAL MANPOWER REQUIREYENTS 1. For the year 1980, requirements for agricultural technicians and graduates are estimated as follows: College Technicians Graduates (a) Extension service irrigated land: 440,000 units 1,470 440 rainfed land: 170,000 units 340 170 (b) Cooperatives 240 120 Total 2,050 730 (c) Research 450 150 (d) Administration 200 70 (e) Development 1,000 300 (f) Mniversity education 60 280 (g) Other education 740 360 (h) Private farming, manufacturing, etc. 500 210 Total requirements 5,000n 2,100 2. These estimates are based on the following assumptions: (a) Total employment in agriculture in 1Q80 is estimated at 1,825,000. An estimated 22 million donums of land would be irrigated; an averaoe size of 50 donums per farm unit would give 440,000 units. Further, the 24.4 million donums of arable rainfed land, including seasonal grazing areas, would consist of 170,000 farm units with an aver- age size of about 150 dontnms. The requirements for tech- nician.s and graduates would be: - irrigated land: one technician per 300 units; one graduate per 1,000 units. - rainfed land: one technician per 500 units; one graduate per 1,000 units.  APPENDIX II Page 2 (b) Cooperatives: one technician per 2,500 units; one graduate per 5,000 units. (c) research: 20% of graduates in the field; 3 technicians per graduate. (d) Administration and planning: 10%1 of graduates and technicians in the field. (e) The agricultural development program calls for an expansion of the irrigated area by 1 million donumns per annum. (f) Included, in 1 (g) above, are teachers for agricultural and general secondary schools. 3. A comparison of the requirements for the years 1970, 1980 and 1990 with the supply would give the following results: College Technicians Graduates 1970 Recuirerents 3,100 1,200 SuPDlV 400 800 Shortage - 2,700 - 400 1980 Recuirements 5,000 2,100 Supply 1,800 4,500 Shortage/Surplus - 3,200 + 2,400 Project contribution iJion _ Shortage/surplus - 2,100 + 2,400 1990 Reauirements 8,2o0 3,300 SuOIly 32000, 7,900 Shortage/Surplus - 5,200 + 4,600 Project contribution 3,0 - Shortage/surplus - 2,200 + 4,600  APPENDIX II Page 3 The supply is estimated on the basis of the output of 150 technicians and 400 college graduates per year from existing institutions and 220 technicians per year from the Bank project. 4. The following general conclusions can be drawn from the above exercise: (a) At present a critical shortage of both agricultural technicians and college graduates exists. (b) As a result of a large expansion of agricultural colleges in the last few years, the shortage of graduates will change into a surplus within two or three years. Unless the intake of students is restricted, this surplus will assume very large proportions. (c) At the same time, the shortage of agricultural technicians will be growing. The Bank project would reduce this shortage by increasing the output capacity by 150%. Thus, in spite of growing requirements, it would be possible to keep the short- age at least about constant.   Vgv3of rs3 .aa 31 3n nv3v