India - Report on Bombay (Vol. 1 of 5) : Main report

U RR7306 VOL. 1 THE WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC S DEPARTIENT 'laLK Ort URBAN AND REGIONAL ECONOIIICS DIVISION URBAN AND REGIONALI REPORT No. 73-6 REPORT ON BOMSAY Main Report (This report has four annexes) B. B. KING and Others March 31, 1971 These materials are for internal use only and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Views are those of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the World Bank. References in publications to Reports should be cleared with the author to protect the tentative charaLter of these papers.  This report is based on the findings of a mission that visited Bombay from November 10 to December 5, 1970. The mission consisted of the following members: King, Benjamin B. - Chief of mission Bahl, Roy W. (Consultant) - Fiscal Affairs Bargholtz, Percy B. - Public Utilities Berrie, Thomas - Public Utilities Kraft, G. (Consultant) - Transportation Mera, Koichi - Urban Economics Strombom, Donald A. - Transportation  REPORT ON BOMBAY TABLE OF CONTENTS Chanter Page No. I SCOPE AND SETTING ....................................... 1 Introduction ......... .................................. 1 A Brief Anatomy ......... ..... .................... 1 The Metropolitan Region ................................ 5 Center, State and Municipality ......................... 6 II - TRANSPORTATION .......................................... 9 Mass Transportation .................................... 9 Movement of Freight .................................... 17 Air Transport .......................................... 21 III - PUBLIC UTILITIES ........................................ 22 IV - LAND USE, HOUSI?'G kND THE URBAN PRICE MECHANISM ... ...... 27 Housing ................................................ 27 The Urban Price Mechanism .............................. 28 Land Use Plans ......................................... 31 J - THE FUTURE OF THE REGION ................................ 33 The Fiscal Position of Greater Bombay ................... 33 The Min Citv ............ I . 34 Planning for the Region ................................ 36 APPENDIX ON STATISTICS ........................................... 38 ANNEX I* MAPS STATISTICAL TABLES 1.1 to 6.8 * Bound separately for easier referernce to the maps and tables mentioned in the text.  REPORT ON BOMBAY CHiAPTER I SCOPE A1ND SETTING Introduction 1. This report does not purport to be comprehensive in any sense of that word. On the basis of a Lhree-week visit such a claim would be pre- sumptuous. It is typical of cities thac information either does not exist or is not readily accessible in many fields; where it does, it may be un- certain in meaning or conflicting. Bombay is no exception although the po- sition is in come respezts much batter than one might expect. Therefore, rore questions will be asked in the report than judgments given, the ques- tions themselves will be on different levels, and such judgments as are made will be made with different degrees of confidence. The report is an opening gambit and must be thought of as such. 2. One theme runs through the report, superseding but not excluding others. This Js the allocation of resources to the development of the city. What motivates the allocacion for each purpose? On what information and un- der what constraints does each agency make its decision or put forward its proposals? How are all the allocations put together and what sense doea the final result of this process make? A Brief Anatomy 3. Bombay is the financi.i capital of India and its leading port. After Calcutta it has the largest population and largest industrial out- put. It is the capital of the State of Maharashtra. Greater Bombay, the present jurisdiction of the Bombay Municipal Corporation, has a pop-- ulation estimated in 1968 at about 5.4 million. This is lebs than 1% of the cotal population of India, but the income generated in Bombay is in excess of 3%. Industrial output is of the order of 20% of the total for all India. Bsmbay's importance in the economy in very mech greater than its share in population. 1/ 1/ See Table 1 on the following page. The figures are rather old; they have been chosen to ensure comparabllity.  -2 - Table 1 COMPARATIVE FIGURES FOR INDIA, KAHARASH.TRA, AND BOMBAY Greater Bombay as India Maharashtra Bombay /1% of Inidia Population (1961) Total (millions) 439.2 39.55 4.15 (5.28) 0.9 Urban (millions) 78.9 i1A6 4.15 (4.64) 5.3 Males per 100 females 106 107 152 ... Income, 1960/61 Total (Rs. billion) 133.1 15.4 4.25 (4.80) 3.2 Per head (Rs.) 307 393 1,025 (925) ... Industry, 1961 Value added (Rs. billion) 12.0 3.0 2.3 19.5 Employees (millions) 3.70 0.78 0.51 (0.54) 13.8 Value added per industrial worker (Rs.000) 3.2 3.9 4.6 ... Public Expenditure (Rs. billion) Annual (1966/67) 61.4 4.6 0.4 0.6 Fourth Plan (1969/70 - 1973/74) 159 9 n.a. /1 Figures in parentheses are for the metropolitan region. Note: Annual expenditure includes all capital and current expenditure. For India it is the consolidated zotal of the center and the states; for Maharashtra and Bombay, only the budget expenditure of the state and municipal authorities. "Plan" expenditure includes most capital and some current expenditure. Sources: -Statistical Abstract of Maharashtra State 1966-67, pp. 2, 3, 4, 18. -Maharashtra Quarterly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. VII, No. 4, pp. 4, S. -Report on the Draft Regional Plan of Bombay Metropolitan Region, Vol. I, pp. 51 ff. -Fourth Five-Year Plan 1969-74, Planning Commission Government or India. -BMC inunicipal accounts.  - 3 - 4. Bombay was founded as a fortified trading post on a collection of islands long since consolidated by reclamation into one, flanking the best natural narbor on the uest coast of India. The central business dis- trict is still known as the Fort. Frorn this origin, Bombay has expanded up through Salsette Island to the north, and northwards and northeastwards onto the .ainland. There are thice Bdmbavs, rLflectinlg this historical development. In ascending order of size - and descending order of density of population - they are Bombay City, Greater Bombay, and Bombay Metropol- itan Region. Bombay city - or the island city 1/ - was until 1950 the ex- tent of the jurisdiction of the Bombay Municipal Corporation (Table 1.1). 2/ Its jurisdiction was extended 'n two stages (in 1950 and in 1957) to embrace the suburbs wthich occupy most of Salsette Island to the north (see Map 1). The city plus the suburbs together are know-n as Greater Bombay. The metropolitan regior. is neither a political nor a historical entity. It was defined under a Regional and Town Planning Act as the basis for a study by an ad hoc board 'known as the Bombay Metropolitan Regional Planning Board. It includes the rest of Salsette Island and large areas to the north and east of it on the mainland. 5. Like all netropclitan areas, Bombay has grown faster than the country of which it is pert (Table 2.1). In 1901, its population was less than one half percent of lzdia's. Growth has fluctuated; there was none in the decade 1921 to 1931 because of the recession, while during World War II there was very rapld growth, a decenniel rate during the decade 1941-51 of about two thirds. In the following decade, 1951-61, the decennial rate was 38%. Growth has taken place lately largely in the suburbs, whose population has more than doubled in each of the two decades from 1941 to 1961. The principal industrial growth took place in the suburbs and, more recently, beyond. There has been substantial industrial expansion in Thans just be- yond the municipal limits, in Trans-Thana across Thana creek on the mainland, and in the complex of towns further east around Kalyan and Ambernath, mainly on industrial estates operated by the M.IEDC, a state-owned corporation. The various towns along the Central railway from Thana to Kalyan, some of them already dormitories for Bombay, had a combined population of 350,000 in 1961. Tha growth of these towns has almost certainly increased as they have come into the =nbit of the metropolitan area. 6. With few exceptions. which may be statistical rather than real, the strtrctural characteristics of Bombay's population have changed little in the last 60 or 70 years. A preponderance of the immigrants have always been men, who most often retain ties to their villages; they may come tem- porarily for work or they may bring their families later. Consequently, the ratio of women to men is lov, as in Calcutta; in 1961 it was 663 per thousand (Table 2.2). Consequently, there is a very high proportion of men in the 15-59 age bracket, 42% of the total population co.pared with 26% in 1/ The wyord "island" is used here and henceforward as shorthand for Bombay city as opposed to the suburbs or Greater Bombay as a whole. 2/ Tables and maps referred to he,.e and henceforward are in Annex I.  - 4 - the rest of Maharashtra; correspondingly, there are far fewer children of either sex (Table 2.3). At the census of 1961, two thirds of the people were born outside Bombay, a proportion not quite as high as it was in earlier years. In the first four decades of the century net migration may have accounted for more than the increase in pcpulation; 'n the decade 1951- 61 about half the increase.l/ The or'gin cf the migrants appears to have been changing. In 1961, close to 407 of the "out-born" came from states other than Maharashtra or nearby Gularat; this seems to be a higher proportion than hitherto (Table 2.4). 7. The outward development of Bombay and the transportation svstem which goes with it broadly resemble the form of the letter "Y". The trunk is the island, che crotch is the southern tip of the suburbs; the arms ex- tend into the suburbs of Salsette Tqland, which is divided in the center by a national park, the airport of San;a Cruz and other open spaces, and onto the mainland beyond. Despite the growth of Industry in the outlying torns and in the suburbs, there are more EAployees living there than there are jobs; the reverse is true on the islar.d (Table 3.4). Therefore, the princinal rm vement in the morning is from the two arms of the "Y" down to its trunk, and the reverse in tFe evening. Broadly speaking, the island provides industrial employment in the northern part of it; wholesale and retail trade and work on the docks rurther south; and office employment in corrercial houses, banks and governzez.t offices in the Fort area close to the tip. 8 Bombay is often identified with iacernal and external trade and with assoc:ated activities such as cor=odity and stock exchanges and financial institutions. These have always been important in Bombay, but they are by no means predominant. 3ombay has long been one of the leading textile centers in india. .Employnent in this industry has however grown litcle in recent years: growth has s-:'tched to less traditional industries, like chemicals ,nd engineering. In the 1961 census about 40, of workers were in manufacturing of all kinds, but factory employment would be substantially less, of the order of 30Z. The government is also a large employer, about 20% of the labor force; this includes not only the three levels of government proper, center, state and city, but also the Railways, the Port and various financial institutions.2/ Bare statistics, however, hardly do justice to che quality of employment in Bombay, which probably is the leading center in India for sophisticated skills and specialized ancillary and consultant services to industrv and conmece. 1/ See K. C. Zachaviah, Migrants in Greater Bombay, 1968. p. 15. As the at:thor points out (pp. 93-106), there is substantial emigration coiicealed in the 'net' figure. 2/ For various employ,nent statistics, see Tables 3.1 to 3.3, 4.1 and ';.2.  9. The income level in Bombay was estimated in 1961 about three times that of the rest of Maharashtra. One need not look far for an explanation. In tha rest of Mahara:hlra the great majority of people are engaged in low productivity occupations, such as agriculture and household industrv. Even outside of agriculture, the productivity of the average worker ia Bombay is a great deal higher than in the rest of the state.l/ Income has the usual skewed distribution. A recent enquiry (in 1968) suggests that about two thirds of the households have an income of less than Rs. 400 per month, perhaps an average per capita annual income very roughly of the order of Rs. 500, which would still be substantially higher than the average for India as a whole. Amorg the poorer people, hovever, there is a submerged class, about a sixth of the total population, with household incomes of under Rs. 150. These probably correspond to the so-called "hutment" dwellers or squatters on vacant land. The Metrooolitan Region 10. The Bombay Metropolitan Regional Planning Board, which was consti- tuted in 1967 at the time when the region was first defined, presented its Draft Regional Plan to the state government in 1970. The principal oper- ational significance of the Plan is a land use plan for the metropolitan re- gion which, when accepted by the state government, will be binding for the next ten years. Beyond that, the Board made a large number or recommenda- tions and it included in its report a list of projects ca.led an "Immediate Operational Progran for Other Bodies to be Completed". What it did not say and, in the circumstances, probably could not say was how these projects could be financed. Nor will it be able to do so in the futu.:e because once its plan has been accepted by the state government, the Board will go out of existence. The Board reco-zended against the constitution of a develop- ment authority for the region and, instead, recommended a hligh level coordi- nating council. Such a council has in fact been formed subsequently with the Minister foi Urban Development as chairman, but it has no staff. Th6 report of the Planning Board was thus a one-shot affair. 1/ It is tempting to couch comparative statements about income in terms of inc3me per worker and, indeed, there are figures to this effect in Table 3.1 in the annex. However, these can be quite misleading. Des'ite the much higher proportion of men of working age in Bombay, the so-called participation rate is lower than in the rest of the state, 41% as against 49%. This is because of the prevalence of family laoor in the rest of the state engaged principally in agriculture. Bombay has a high proportion of students and of women engaged in household duties who do not form part of the labor force. In the rest of the state the people in these categories are a much lower Droportior, since many in the corresponding age-group are classified as agricultural workers (Table 3.2). One may well question a simple statistical comparison between a family on the one hane, in which the man werks, Mis wife stays at home and the children go to school, with another familv in which el'. of cnem work on the land but are in different degrees not fully emp,oyed on it.  11. The most far-reaching recomziandation of the Planning Board was the development of a i:ew city across the harbor from Bombay on the mainland, known variously as the Metrocenter or Twin City. Without this development cle Soard projected Greater 83rhay would grow from a population of a little over four million in !961 to nearly ten million in 1991 and the outlying urban areas from about half a million to one and a half million in the same seriod. This prolection was based on the continuation of the present trend for the development of Bombav, in wh.ch the centers of econom'c activity are mainly down on the island while the population is strung out in a northerly and northeasterly direction along the railway lines. In order to ptrevent the growing "congestion" this causes, the twin city was proposed as a new focus of economic activity which together with other satellite towns would draw people from the city to the excent of nearly three million (Table 27.5). 12. In essence, the notion of a twin city has been accepted with the creation of the City and Induscrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra (CIDCO), a state corporation 1ith very wide powers for urban development throughouL the '.tate. Its prinzipal task initially, however, is well re- cognized to be the development of the twin city; already 55,000 acres in the project area have been "notified", that is, the owniers have been put on notice that the government cay exercise an option within the next three vears to buy the land, during which time their use or sale of it is re- stricted. The metropolitan region, h:zSever, is more than Greater Bombay, for wnich the Municipal Corporation is the authority, ani the twin city to be, for which CIDCO is now responsible. The towTis along the railway lines leading out of Bombay, which already contained a population cloce to 400,000 in 1961 and have grown considerably since, are linked to Bombay by suburhan rail services and, togethe:, their industrial employment is in total as large as that of Poona, frequently regarded ae the second industrial center in the state (Table 4.2). Center, State, and Municioalitv 13. -The figures under Expenditure in Table 1 are significant in two ways. First, one may compare the annual expenditure of the Bombay hunicipal Corporation with public expendiure in India as a whole (the consolidated total for center and states) or with the public expenditure of Maharashtra State. Contrary to the trend in other figures, which are hiFher than the proportion of population, this one is lower. This does not mean that the level of all public expenditure in Bombay is .ow, but it does indicate the \ reduced role of urban goverr Gent in India. The second significant figure is one that is not there, the share in Plan expenditure. If Bombay can be said to nave some sort of plan o' expenditure comparable to those for India as a whole and for states, it consists of bits and nieces of other people's plans plus a little expenditure of its own. Financlng of expenditure ma" be by the city, the state, the center or any combination of these, including all three. Capital expenditures under the city's direct control are very; limited. Responsibilities within Bombav, and even more within the metropo-\ litan regior, are divided among all three levels of government. It would take considerable time and effort to find ouc what public expenditure in the Sombay region has been.  - 7 - 14. The Railways, which run the vital suburban services 1/, are oper- ated by two divisions of the Indian Railways, the Western railwav and the Cencral railway. National roads run into Bombay; the state government, through its Buildings ard Cocmunications Depart.nent, is responsible for rajor road construction in Bcmbay. Virrually all expenditure on railways, civil aviatior, and most of the expendirure for ports is the province of the center and !ts agencies. There is, however, locai representation on the Bonb.oy Port 'irust, which operates the port of Bombay. The Municipal Corporation, through fts subsidiary, the Bombay Electric Supply and Trans- port Undertaking (BEST), runs the buses in Greater Bombay and electricity distribution in Bombay city (a private company does the latter in the su- burbs). Two subsidiaries of the state government, the Maharashtra State Housing Board and the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation, are respectivaly responsible for public housing and for bus transport outside Greater Bombay. CIDCO would have the responsibiliry for all the usual ur- ban services in the proposed area of the twin city. 15. The story is 3uch the same for public utilities. Telecommunica- tions are wholly naLional (the Indian Posts & lelegraphs Department). In elec.ric power the national level is engaged through the Central Water and Pcy.er Commission. which scrutinizes the expansion plans of the state elec- t:icity boards, and through the Atomic Energy Department which is also engaged in p.wer generation. The state is engaged in generation, transmission and distribution, through the Maharjshtra State Electricity Board (MSEB), and regulates the private utilities tn the sector. The metropolitan region consumes about three quarters of all the power in Mahav3shtra. For water supply and sewerage the primary responsibility rests with the municipalities, but the state is responsible for the construction o: dams; it gives financial assistance to municipalities and other local bodies for investments; it carries out the construction of new facilities for all municipalities but the BMC itself- and, through the .'aharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC), it is cirectly engaged in water supply and distribution in some areas. 16. Such a list of divided responsibilities is far from being unusual. Nevertheless, it does raise questions abzut the future planning of the allo- cation of resources within the metropolitan region. Possible claims on these resources are large and they will need stringent examination before allocation is made; and other economic policies should be consistent with the allocation. It is by no means clear how this is to be done under the e ,.ing system. 17. in deciding on the allocation, the authorities will have a formi- dable list of problems to face. The preamble of the summary version of the 1/ One third of all passenger-trips in India by rail are made in Bombay.  Planning 8oard's report describes them in this way: "Bombay the beautiful" is no more beautiful. Many parts of it are not even tolerably clean and healthy. Housing deficits are ever_uidening: and slums, like a cancerous growth, is threatening to 6eeak down and serious law and order situations develop on the slightest provocations. Tie geography of the island imposes severe limitations on the optimum and healthy population size and grrnth. Despite these limitations, however, the city contiaues to attract large streams of migrants. Concerted action and co-ordinated planning is necessary to salvage this situatlon, il With one exception this is a pretty fair summary; the exception is an im- pending shortage of power, which is not yet an actual problem and which it may be possible to forestall to some extent. In the following chapters we shall examine how these problems have been dealt with in the past and how it would appear that the agencies concerned intend to deal with them in the future. 1! Strategy for Bombay Metropolitan Regicn, p. 5.  - 9 - CCHAPTER 11 TRANSPORTATION a ss Transportation 18. Mass transportation ranks first among the possible claimants on resources, since proposals in the vind for the next decade could cost as much as Rs.5C0 crores. Ezpenditure on this scale is contemplated because of the supposed need to build several subway lines down the length of the island of Bombay ci.y ir. order to accommodate the growth of comrM,ter traf- fic. Among commuters tc work at the peak hours, about twice as many use the railway as their main node as use the buses; in terms of passenger- kilometers the discrepan^y must be much greater. The neec; for a subvay turns on.the assumptions used for determining the ultimate capacity of the railways and the growth of commuter traffic. As we shall see, bott. these assumptions are o;en to question. 19.. Suburban transportation is provided by the two divisions of the Indian Railways u."hich haze .Aeir headquarte:s in Bombay, the Western and the Central (see Map 2). The Western railway line from the terminus at Churchgate near the foot of the island is double-track for about four kilometers to Grant Road, the station before the main line terminus at F-nbay Centrall/; it has 'our tracks for the remaining 30 kilometers nir:h z.o Borivli, but suburban services extend on the two main lines Across tne creek as far north as Virar (60 kilometers). On the v. .tral railway, w'.ich starts at Victoria Terminus fairly near ChurchgaLe, four .-rks rin up the eastern side of the suburbs through the town of Thana c. the o0.tskirts of the municioal limits as far as Kalyan 54 kilometers away on the zminland. Lesser suburban servicea run even further, another 67 ..,ometers to Kasara on the main line to Agra, and southwe3t 46 kilcmeters to Karjat on the main line to Poona. These rail lines roughly, but by no means exactly, parallel the main road system running into Bombay, which includes a .jur-lane expresswe' through the suburbs on either side of Salsette Islani as far as iLs Junction with the i:land to the south. An extensive network of bus services within Bmbay city is provided by BEST. In the suburbs BEST provides principally feeder services to the railheads. There Is a limited aount of long distar._e bus service from outside BombAy operated by the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation. 20. The forerunner of traffic studies in Bombay was one made by Wilbur Smith in 1963. despite the fact that even nuw only about one in 80 persons owns a car in Bombay, that some 902 of all passenger-trips in 1/ An additional two tracks qre under construction on these four kilometers.  - 10 - iombay a-re made by rail or bus and zany of the remainder consist of short- distance taxi trips or school bus trips and the likei/, the study was heav.ly oriented towards passenger au:tomobiles. In projecting future demand for trafi,c thc study had to take as its basis the existing land use plan for Greater Bombay. The scudy recommended an expenditure of about Rs.96 crores in the following 20 years, mainly for freeways up the sides of the island some-hac on the analogv of the West Side highway in New York, with cross- connectors. Lit:le was do,ne to im.plement these proposals until the Fourth Plan under which 12 crores were allotted (4 crores each from the center, the state and the city) to building parts of the western and probably less r.ecessary of the two freeways. both of which are something of a luxury. Most cities woald be happy to have the lw volume of automobile traffic that Bombav has. 21. A direct descenidanr of the Wilbur Smith study .as the Mass Trans- portation Study of Bombay. This s udy was prepared by an ad hoc body knowtn as the Traffic Cell createc! in the Directorate of To-n Planning of the state government. It carried out its work- in 1968 and 1969 and fin'shed its final report .n the latter year. As the title would imply, thc study is much more heavily oriented :oward mass transportation. Such a need had been alluded to in the Wilbur Smith report and subsequer.tly emphasized by a body known as thp Metropolitdn Transpcrt Team appointcd by the Central Pluinning Commission One may take issue with some aspects of the metho- dology followed by the Traffic Cell and with some of its conclusions, but the fact remains that its final report is by far the most comrrehensive study of the movement of people in Bombay. It could well have been pub- lished to enable those intcrestei in the future deveLopment of Bombay to debate the many issues more solidly on facts and less on mere opinione, efpecially as the Traffic Cell has now been dissolved. 22. According :c the Traffic Cell's report, the present patter-A of movement. in Bombay is as follows. Of the 5.4 million people in Greacer Bombay in 1968, about 3 million take regular trips every weekday - to work or to school. About ' 3/4 million, including most of the students, go oa foot. The remaining 1 1/4 million use one or more modes of transportation (Table 3.4). 23. Since there are more jobs than workers in the island and vice- versa in the suburbs and outlying areas, the predominant movement at the peak hours is in one direction: north-south in the morning and the re- verse in the evening.2/ There is a substan:ial and apparently increasing movement in the opposiLe direction, but there is not much evidence to say I:ow much. The volume of rhe north-south novement begins to taper off in the industrial district of orli and Parel in the center of the island 1/ For rip distribution see Table 6.3. 2/ Fo: distribution of trips by hour of day see Table 6.6.  (district 6) but it is still substantial at the extremities of the subur- ban lines. About 300,000 workers travel to the Fort area (the central business district) every dav, more than 200,000 arriving by rail at Church- g,ate or Victoria terminals (Table 3.4, Col. 7). From here most go on by foot, since the distances are not great. The Fort aree contains the offices of the state and municipal governments and many branchts of the central government, the Reserve Bank of India and many commercial banks, and the h2ad offices of numerous large business firms or public enterprises. Most of it is within one kilometer of the terminals; the great majority of those who walk from the *erminals spend less than ten minutes doing so. 24. Some, however, continue by bus, especially to Colaba, the southern tip of the island.1/ They are not many, because there is not much employment in this area at present. This, however, is changing and will continue to do so if the most controversial project in Bombay continues. This is the re- clamation of Backbay, a large body of water already partly enclosed. If this project goes ahead and the land is sold for commrercial development, tnaybe an- other 150,000 jobs will be created there by 1981, increasing not only the load on rail transportation to the two terminals but or. road transportation from there on.2/ 25. It is perhaps for t'his reason that the Traffic Cell concerned it- self particularly with traffic arriving in the Fort area and continuing south, at some expense to the treatment of other traffic conditions through- out Bombay. There is however another reason. There are really two differ- ent, though related, problems connected with the flow of traffic up and down the island. One is the capacity of the railway and bus services to cope with the flow at peak hours, which appears - the evidence is not very strong - to be at its maximum around Dadar in the industrial north of the island. The total daily flow at about this latituJe, if we may call it that, is very much greater than it is further south on the edge of the Fort area, as much as 80% higher on the railways (Table 6.4). The difference, however, may be less at peak hours, although the information on this is not clear. It would appear that about 120,000 people travel south on the railways during the peak hour, but at the two terminals the number is down to 80,000 (Table 6.7). These 80,000 people however give rise to the second problem, since they all get out at the two terminal stations. Those that do not try to board a bus at this time interfere with the buses and other traffic as pedes:rians. In other words there is a dispersal problem. 26. The Railway Board, a central body, has commissioned further studies on both these problems, entrusting the work to a specially constituted body known as the Metropolitan Transport Project (not to be conh-ised with the Metropolitan Transport Team). As in considering the capacity problemn, the 1/ Colaba, incidentally, was served by a direct rail link at one time; it was replaced by a road in 1933. 2/ If all the occupants of the jobs came by rail, they would need 50 ;rain- loads-even at the peak density.  - 12 - HrP has accepted the forecast of future traffic prepared by the Yraffic Cell, it is necessary to examine these projections and their underlying assum?tions. In making its study the Traffic Cell, following the Wilbur Smith report, es- tablished a series of "screen lines" crossing the island east to west in order to identify the number of people crossing these lines every day. The impor- tant screen lines for our purpose4 are screen line No. 1 which divides Colaba from the Fort, screen line No. 2 which divides the Fort from the rest of the island, screen line No. 7 which divides the island from the suburbs, and screen line No. 8 which is to the north of the suburbs.1/ In 1968 the aver- age trip, according to the Traffic Cell's estimates, crosses two screen lines; in 1981 they estimate that the average trip would cross three screen lines. This means thac the incremental trips added between these two yearc vould cross an average of 'ive screen lines (Table 6.5). Many trips, including all those which take place entirely within the suburbs, do not cross a screen line at all and therefore count zero.2/ If we make an off-the-cuff assumption that 30% of all trips do not cross a screen line, the remainder of these incremental trips must cross seven screen lines, i.e. they must all come from the suburbs :,r even further out and go all the way down to the Fort area or Colaba. 27. One may juggle with these figure. as one likes but the fact re- mains that the vast majority of the incremental trips, according to this forecast, come from outside Bombay city and cross the entire island. This is almost too much to believe, even if one accepts, as the Traffic Cell had to accept, the assumption that a very large number of jobs would be created by 1981 as a result of the reclamation of Backbay. Ho' much of the forecast increase in north-south traffic is due to some quirk in the projection and how much t' this assumption about the Backbay is not clear. In any case it is the Backbay which is largely responsible. 28. The Traffic Cell in their report threw out some pretty broad hints about the unsatisfactory consequences of their projections for the city's developm.ent. At that time of course, the report of the Metropol- itan Rzgional Planning Board had not yet been prepared. Its report went a great deal further and listed among the major policy decisions needed, first, in general, that noth bte aone to "perpetuate the north-touth development trend" and, secon-ly, in particular, to abandon the Backbay 1/ The remaining screen lines of course fall between screen lines 2 and 7, as shown on Map 2. 2/ Bus trips to a railhead for the purpose of catching a train are counted as separate trips.  - 13 - reclamation project.i, They recomnended in the first instance giving pricrity to the Bandra-Kurla reclamation, a project at the southern end of Salsette Island wh1ch as been on the books for some time. Ultimate- ly, thev recommended shifting as much of the office developmeiLt from the present central business district to the proposed twin city. The MTP project on the other hand, appears to be u-nder the constraint of planning on the assumption that tnh Backbay project would continue. 29. This was not the only constraint under which the MTP appears to have operated. Another was the use of main lines into Bombay. Each rail- way leading into Bombay has two pairs of tracks running down the middle of the island, one pair being primarily for suburban traffic and the other for main line traffic; the Central, in addition, has a purely suburban line along the east side of the island known as the Harbor Branch.2/ Thus there are five pairs of tracks running down the island. At present, some suburban traffic rur% on the main lines but the constraint was imposed upon the MTP that no further suburban traffic should run on these two pairs of main lines in 1981, dcspite the fact that only a dozen or so passenger trains run during the peak hours (9-11 a.m. and 5-7 p.m.).I/ 30. A third constraint was to confine the actual use of the paEsenger cars to their "marked capacity"; the latter is 1,750 passengers per 9-car rake, which is the normal train. Present conditions, where the actual num- ber of passengers on a train may exceed 3,000, are regarded as intolerable. However, this constraint goes rather far in the opposite direction .ince it allows something like tiree and a half square feet per standing passenger. This is better than the conditions endured by commuters in other cities.4/ Moreover, much space is given over to seats. 1/ They have not bcen the only ones to raise this sort of question. For example, the following extract from "Work, Wages e-d Well-being in an Indian Metropolis" by D.T. Lakdawala and others, 1963: "In this connection attention may be drawn to the extension of the already existing sites or erection of new ones, under- taken or completed in the recent past by the various govern- mental agencies in the already concentrated areas of Fort and Colaba. This is bound to have given a further twist in the wroaLg direction and worsen the problem of transportation in a city like Bomliy where the traffic is mostly in one direction. The question might be asked whether it were not possible to develop an alternative site by pooling together the resources of all these agencies. As however, the amounts already ccm-- mitted are substantial, for some time to come at least, the opportunity of dispersal has been lost." (p. 703). 2/ There is also a spur from Kurla to the rrombay area, which is also reported to be having capacity problems. 3/ There are 36 mainline paspenger trains arriving daily in Bombay and the same number departirg. plus three in each direction weekly or biweekly. 4/ Trains in Tnkyo are reportea to be even more crowded than those in Bombay at present.  - 14 - 31. If oue were to abandon these constraints by allowing less relief from present crowding, by turning over the main lines wholly to suburban traffic on the island at least during the peak hours, and if one wLre to introduce various improvements suggested by the MTP (signallirg, use of 12- car rakes on the Central railway, etc.), one could - at consiH4erable expense, but far less than for a subway - increase capacity to a poir where one could carry about two and a half times the present number of peak-hour travelers in the center of the island, or just about what the MTLP e-_timated the needs would be even with the Backbay reclamation continuing. If one abandons that constraint too, then there would be ample capacity for many years to come, although not without certain costs. Some of these can readily be quantified, for example the capital cost of introducing various operating improvements on the present lines. Others are less easy, for example the added discom- fort to the commuter of losing a square foot of standing space, or of re- ducing his probability of getting a seat, or the inconvenience to the main line railway trav?ler of arriving outside the center of the city, but still at a point which is much closer in than most airports, including the one in Bombay. 32. There are also the costs to be taken into account of forcing or, alternatively, inducing organizations to move their offices to the south- ern tip of the suburbs instead of the southern tip of the i3land. They would suffer the loss for the time being of what are popularly known os economies of agglomeration. That these econoamies exist is attested to by the very high prices for land which are paid in the reclamation project. prices which may reflect the benefits anybody occupying the land might ex- pect to enjoy but not necessarily reflecting the costs which he may impose on the urban economy, at least under present conditions. 33. That employers in the Fort area do impose considerable cost on the urban economy seems t.o be beyond question even at present, without contemplating the prospect of a subway. Very low season ticket fares are available on a monthly basis; for example, a passenger from Borivli to Churchgate pays a monthly rate of Rs. 10.60 for the whole month or, based on 25 days and a 70-km round trip, about 0.6 paise per trip-kilometer; on a quiarterty basis, the price is only five sixths of this. A rough calcula- tion would suggest that this fare on a marginal train required only at the peak hour, when most of the season ticket holders would be supposed to travel, may be below the interest cost on rolling stock, let alone any other  - 15 - expense.1/ A far more searching analysis of costs involved in running commuter traffic is needed. There are, as we shall see, also additional costs involved in providing other public services. 34. It is only natural that with the cheap fares currently available, .eople with jobs in the Fort area would tend to move further out, where land prices are cheaper, than they would have done otherwise. The trade-off be- tween the cost of living space and transportation is weighted further out than it would be if economic costs of transportation were charged. That a policy which tends to aggrave e this situation is even considered occurs be- cause the cost of adding commuter services at low prices is borne by the union government; the benefit from reclamation of land in the Backbay area in fiscal terms accrues to the Maharashtra Government. However, all resour- ces ultimat ly come out of the same pot and it is doubtful whether anybody gains from such a policy in the end. The employer of course has no incen- tive to change his ways because the low fares enable him to pay lower sala- ries. Were railway fares to be raised, it is commonly believed there would be violenc protest; there is no reason to think that this is not a reason- able fear. 1/ Let us take as an example a marginal peak-hour train from Borivli to Churchgate. Since it takes well over an hour with stops to travel the 35 kilometers to Churchgate in one direction, such a peak-hour train is not usable outside the peak hour; or rather, thete are enough additional trains available "or any non-peak-hour service. The cost of running the train during the peak hour must be measured against the receipts during the peak hour. If we adsume that a train from Borivli is packed with 3,000 passengers, which in fact it is not, and that they are all third- class monthly season ticket holders (which ^s generov'3, as many would have quarterly tickets), the receipts per month would be of the crder of Rs. 32,000. To allow for the fact that there may be some higher charges for first-class passengers, we c&n adjust this to, say, Rs. 36,000; that is, Rs. 4,000 per car in a 9-car rake. The annual re- ceipts of that peak-hour run would thus be Rs. 48,000 or $6,600 per car. At 10% interest, which is really too low a shadow price of capi- tal, this would be the interest cost, but only the irterest cost, on a ca.- costing $64,000. It might be possible to buy a *.ar such as is used on the suburban lines for this price; certainly the price would not be less. Thus, a peak-hour train may not even earn the interest on its capital cost, l:t alone depreciation and running expenses. The econo- mics of a trdin from a point somewhat nearer in, such as Bandra, might be a little better since there is a possibility of running the samo train twice; moreover, the fares for shorter distances are somewhat higher per kilometer. The trend, however, is of ccurse in exactly the opposite direction towards longer and longer peak-hour trips.  - 16 - 35. If wages were raised to compensate for increased fares, there would again be considerable inequity, because in fact not everybody travels to work from long distances. Because of rent c itrol, a limited number of employees can afford to live much nearer, which means of course that they enjoy to some ex,tent at least an invisible rent. Raising Eheir wales would just increase the rent they